Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
The Proposal. In a move long awaited by many investors, yesterday after the market closed Danone North America proposed to acquire Lifeway for $25/sh in cash, valuing the entire Company at approximately $380 million. Although the proposal is non-binding, Danone seeks to engage in discussions with the Board with a view to signing a definitive agreement rapidly. LWAY shares reacted positively, trading up nearly 16% to $24.91 on the news.
Why Now? Danone has been a significant Lifeway shareholder since 1999 and currently owns 23.4% of the outstanding equity. According to the letter sent to management, Danone’s 2025-28 Renew strategy has a strong focus on gut health, “which is driving our interest in considering the benefits of a potential combination with Lifeway.” The probiotics in kefir may help support a healthy gut.
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Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Lithium carbonate production at the pilot plant. Century Lithium recently added a lithium carbonate stage at the company’s lithium extraction facility which is part of the company’s Angel Island Mine project. Previously, concentrated lithium solutions from the pilot plant were treated by Saltworks Inc. at their facility in Richmond, British Columbia to produce samples of battery grade lithium carbonate. Century Lithium is now able to do this at the pilot plant and demonstrate it has an end-to-end process to produce lithium carbonate. The pilot plant utilizes the Company’s patent-pending process for chloride leaching combined with direct lithium extraction (DLE).
Assay results. Century Lithium recently released assay results from the first lithium carbonate produced at the lithium carbonate stage at the company’s lithium extraction facility. Assays received for the initial five individual lots of lithium carbonate produced indicated purity of the lithium carbonate ranging from 98.2% to 99.2%. After addressing a mechanical issue, two additional 40-liter lots of concentrated lithium solution were treated and achieved a battery grade lithium carbonate purity level of 99.5% due to an expected reduction of impurities.
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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Raising PT. We are raising our price target to $14 from a prior $11 and maintaining our Outperform rating on GLDD shares. We believe the strong operating environment-as evidenced by the new awards announced Friday-will continue, providing upside to operating results, in our view. At our new PT, GLDD shares would trade at 1.7x projected 2024 revenue and 9.8x adjusted EBITDA, compared to a peer group which trades at 1.5x and 11.4x, respectively.
New Awards. On Friday, the DOD announced Great Lakes had been awarded just under $300 million of new business, including a $219 million award for the Sabine-Neches Waterway Channel Improvement Project. The new awards will be additive to backlog, are higher margin work, and highlight not only the amount of work available but Great Lakes’ ability to win such available work.
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Comtech Telecommunications Corp. engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of products, systems, and services for advanced communications solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Telecommunications Transmission, Mobile Data Communications, and RF Microwave Amplifiers. The Telecommunications Transmission segment provides satellite earth station equipment and systems, over-the-horizon microwave systems, and forward error correction technology, which are used in various commercial and government applications, including backhaul of wireless and cellular traffic, broadcasting (including HDTV), IP-based communications traffic, long distance telephony, and secure defense applications. The Mobile Data Communications segment provides mobile satellite transceivers, and computers and satellite earth station network gateways and associated installation, training, and maintenance services; supplies and operates satellite packet data networks, including arranging and providing satellite capacity; and offers microsatellites and related components. The RF Microwave Amplifiers segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets satellite earth station traveling wave tube amplifiers (TWTA) and broadband amplifiers. Its amplifiers are used in broadcast and broadband satellite communication; defense applications, such as telecommunications systems and electronic warfare systems; and commercial applications comprising oncology treatment systems, as well as to amplify signals carrying voice, video, or data for air-to-satellite-to-ground communications. The company serves satellite systems integrators, wireless and other communication service providers, broadcasters, defense contractors, military, governments, and oil companies. Comtech markets its products through independent representatives and value-added resellers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
13D Filing. On Friday after the market closed, the SEC released a 13D filing filed by a group including former Comtech CEOs Michael Porcelain and Fred Kornberg. As part of the filing, the Group noted that on September 13th Mr. Porcelain delivered a letter to Comtech nominating a slate of eight highly qualified director candidates for election to the Board at Comtech’s 2024 annual meeting of stockholders, generally held in mid-December. The Group has engaged, and intends to continue to engage, in discussions with management and the Board of Comtech, as well as Comtech stockholders and others about the Company.
Details. According to the 13D, in addition to Mr. Porcelain and Mr. Kornberg, the group includes Oleg Timoshenko, founder of UHP Networks, and Jay Whitehurst, former President of Comtech’s Trusted Location product line. In aggregate, the Group reported ownership of 2,179,897 CMTL shares, or about 7.6% of the outstanding.
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Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Two New Hires. Last Friday, Bit Digital announced the hiring of its new Head of Revenue, Benjamin Lamson,, and Chief Technology Officer, Tom Sanfilippo. Both of the hires will be critical to Bit Digital’s high-performance computing (HPC) segment. Alongside the two key hires, management also hired additional headcount across sales and AI/ML engineering roles in the segment.
Mr. Lamson’s Background. Mr. Lamson brings experience as the Head of Revenue through his previous position at DigitalOcean, in which he was Head of Paperspace Revenue from July 2023 to August 2024 following DigitalOcean’s acquisition of Paperspace. Prior to that, he was CFO of Paperspace and led the company to a 350% increase in revenue over 18 months.
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Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
International license agreement.Comstock Fuels executed a non-binding term sheet to grant SACL Pte. Limited, a Singapore-based renewable fuel project developer, an exclusive marketing agreement for Comstock Fuels’ advanced lignocellulosic biomass refining processes in Australia and New Zealand. The term sheet includes a master non-exclusive intellectual property license for the sole purpose of developing, financing, constructing, and managing renewable fuels production facilities. SACL has identified initial sites for the construction of three refineries in Australia.
Terms of the agreement. Comstock Fuels will contribute site specific technology rights in exchange for a 20% equity stake in each refinery. Comstock will provide each producer with engineering support in exchange for 3% of each facilities’ capital and construction costs, increasing to 6% at and above a capacity of 250,000 metric tons per year (MTPY), including an upfront payment of $2.5 million payable upon execution of a site license agreement. Comstock Fuels will earn a royalty fee equal to 3% of the total sales of licensed products by each facility, increasing to 6% at and above a capacity of 250,000 metric tons per year.
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Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
New Funding. MustGrow announced yesterday that the Company is receiving funding from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) to investigate its mustard-derived ingredient. The ingredient could potentially be used in human and animal health and food applications. The funding amount was not disclosed. The Company will continue to focus on its core business outside of the program, with the anticipation of more state approvals for TerraSante, in our view.
The Program. Under the program, the Company and AAFC will look at bioactive components in mustard seed and assess yellow mustard extracts for potential antibiotic and gut health applications in both humans and animals. They will also test the selected bioactive components for antifungal and antibacterial activities against food spoilage microbes and disease pathogens and for use as ingredients in functional foods and nutraceuticals for improved immunity and gut health in both humans and animals.
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500 5th Avenue 20th Floor New York, NY 10110 United States Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 599 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Jonathan CEO & Director 825.62k N/A 1958 Ms. Marie Fogel Senior VP and Chief Merchandising & Manufacturing Officer 633.19k N/A 1961 Mr. John Chief Financial Officer
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Fiscal Q2 overachieves expectations. Q2 revenues of $74.2 million were much better than our $68.5 million estimate and supported a “beat” in our adj. EBITDA estimate, a positive $2.4 million versus our adj. EBITDA loss estimate of $1.5 million. The largest portion of the variance was due to timing of wholesale order shipments, which pushed into the second quarter. We estimate that those revenues were roughly $5 million.
Profit margins improved, outlook appears favorable. Gross profit margins increased 80 basis points from year earlier levels, as the company shifts away from price promotions and with a focus on tight cost controls. management guided for operating margins to increase 350 to 450 basis points for the full year, bolstered by a shift away from discounting, higher pricing, and lower freight costs.
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PDS Biotech is a clinical-stage immunotherapy company developing a growing pipeline of molecularly targeted cancer and infectious disease immunotherapies based on the Company’s proprietary Versamune® and Infectimune™ T-cell activating technology platforms. Our Versamune®-based products have demonstrated the potential to overcome the limitations of current immunotherapy by inducing in vivo, large quantities of high-quality, highly potent polyfunctional tumor specific CD4+ helper and CD8+ killer T-cells. PDS Biotech has developed multiple therapies, based on combinations of Versamune® and disease-specific antigens, designed to train the immune system to better recognize diseased cells and effectively attack and destroy them. The Company’s pipeline products address various cancers including HPV16-associated cancers (anal, cervical, head and neck, penile, vaginal, vulvar) and breast, colon, lung, prostate and ovarian cancers.
Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Additional Clinical Details Presented At ESMO Conference. PDS Biotech presented an update to its Phase 2 VERSATILE-002 trial at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO), adding detail to the data announced in June 2024. We see these Phase 2 data as highly encouraging for the Phase 3 VERSATILE-003 trial testing the doublet combination and the triplet combination (Versamune HPV with PDS01ADC and Keytruda) against Keytruda alone.
Trial Continues As Patient Survival Continues To Surpass Other Treatments. The VERSATILE-002 enrolled 53 patients with recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (R/M HNSCC). As of the May 17, 2024, analysis date, 27 patients remain alive with some reaching the 3-year survival point. Out of those alive, 10 remain on treatment and 17 are followed for survival.
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Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Raising Price Target. With KTOS shares hitting our prior $22 price target, we are raising our price target to $26. We are maintaining our Outperform rating on the shares. We view the recent awards and demonstrations as further confirmation of the Kratos strategy in providing leading edge disruptive technology products and systems.
CR Concern. Although we remain confident in the long-term success of the Company, the potential for another extended Continuing Resolution remains a concern in the near-term. The Federal government’s fiscal year ends September 30th and we do not expect a 2025 budget to be passed before then. The concern is for an extended CR, like we had in fiscal 2024, which pushes new awards and contracts to the right.
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Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Strong fiscal Q4. SelectQuote’s fiscal Q4 revenue of $307.2 million and adj. EBITDA of $14.4 million exceeded our estimates of $271.3 million and a loss of $2.2 million, respectively. In our view, the strong performance demonstrated the power of the company’s synergistic business model, which serves consumers’ needs both for insurance policies and pharmacy services.
Pharmacy momentum. Total revenue grew an impressive 38% over the prior year period, driven largely by the company’s Healthcare Services segment, which is comprised primarily of SelectRx (home-direct pharmacy business). Healthcare Services revenue was up roughly 75%, year-over-year with SelectRx membership growing to approximately 82,000, up from roughly 75,000 at the end of fiscal Q3.
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Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Q2 results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $105.8 million, which was in line with our $105.0 million estimate. Due to lower than expected Selling & Marketing Expenses and efficiency initiatives, adj. EBITDA was $16.2 million, far better than our $0.9 million estimate. Selling & Marketing expenses were roughly $11 million lower than expected, accounting for the largest portion of the sizable “beat”.
PC picking up Steam. Notably, management highlighted the launch of Pixel Gun 3D PC Edition to the Steam platform, the largest digital distribution platform for PC gaming. The launch of Pixel Gun 3D on Steam and a solid quarter for Hero Wars: Dominion Era led to PC revenue accounting for 42% of total revenue, up from 38% in the prior year period. The addition of Steam is viewed favorably given that PC players tend to spend more money and time playing than mobile users.
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Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Pure play manufacturer. FreightCar America, Inc. is a diversified manufacturer of railroad cars and rail car components. The company designs and manufactures a broad variety of railroad car types for the transportation of bulk commodities and containerized freight products primarily in North America. The company recently reported strong second-quarter financial results and appears poised for greater scale and margin expansion as it increases its market share and expands its product suite.
Expected redemption of high-cost preferred stock. We have assumed the company could redeem its high-cost preferred shares using a private credit term loan. For the sake of simplicity, we have assumed this occurs just prior to 2025. Based on the company’s strong cash flow profile and outlook, we estimate the rate on a $100 million private credit term loan could approximate the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) plus 600 basis points or 11.33%. We note that the amount of the term loan and the interest rate could vary from our estimates. If the loan amount or interest rate is lower, interest expense could be lower.
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