Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

GeoVax Labs (GOVX) – GeoVax Receives Allowance For New Patent Covering Vaccine Platform Technologies

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, December 10, 2024

GeoVax Labs, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing novel therapies and vaccines for solid tumor cancers and many of the world’s most threatening infectious diseases. The company’s lead program in oncology is a novel oncolytic solid tumor gene-directed therapy, Gedeptin®, presently in a multicenter Phase 1/2 clinical trial for advanced head and neck cancers. GeoVax’s lead infectious disease candidate is GEO-CM04S1, a next-generation COVID-19 vaccine targeting high-risk immunocompromised patient populations. Currently in three Phase 2 clinical trials, GEO-CM04S1 is being evaluated as a primary vaccine for immunocompromised patients such as those suffering from hematologic cancers and other patient populations for whom the current authorized COVID-19 vaccines are insufficient, and as a booster vaccine in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). In addition, GEO-CM04S1 is in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating the vaccine as a more robust, durable COVID-19 booster among healthy patients who previously received the mRNA vaccines. GeoVax has a leadership team who have driven significant value creation across multiple life science companies over the past several decades.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Intellectual Property Estate Is Expanding. GeoVax announced that the US Patent and Trademark Office has issued a Notice of Allowance for its patent application covering the expression of antigens in virus-like particles delivered with a viral vector. This is a mechanism used to stimulate an immune response from the GeoVax MVA-based vaccines. The patent allowance is the final step in the USPTO application process, and the patent will be issued after payment of fees.

The Application Covers Expression Of Immune Stimulation Antigens. The patent titled “Vaccinia Viral Vectors Encoding Chimeric Virus Like Particles” includes claims for expressing a tumor associated antigen (TAA) in virus-like particles (VLPs) from a recombinant Modified Vaccinia Ankara (MVA) viral vector. This covers vaccines that use the MVA as a vector to deliver DNA that assembles into non-infectious virus-like constructs to simulate an immune response against the targeted virus. This mechanism is used in the MVA MUC-1 (cancer) and infectious disease vaccines. A detailed description of the MVA platform and VLPs begins on page 7 of our Initiation of Coverage report.


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GDEV Inc. (GDEV) – Highlights From NobleCon20: Geared For Growth

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, December 10, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon20. On December 3rd, management presented to the investment community at NobleCon20, held at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida. The presentation was conducted by Alexander Karavaev, chief financial officer, and Roman Safiyulin, chief corporate development officer. The duo highlighted the company’s dynamic growth prospects and the prospective swing toward growth in bookings. A replay of the presentation can be viewed by clicking here.

Dynamic business model. The company focuses on live-service games, meaning that the games have a continuous lifespan and are updated on an ongoing basis. This allows for a stable revenue base that grows over time, unlike many gaming companies with a “lumpier” revenue profile that oscillates based on game release schedules. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

E.W. Scripps (SSP) – Highlights From NobleCon20

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, December 10, 2024

The E.W. Scripps Company (NASDAQ: SSP) is a diversified media company focused on creating a better-informed world. As one of the nation’s largest local TV broadcasters, Scripps serves communities with quality, objective local journalism and operates a portfolio of 61 stations in 41 markets. The Scripps Networks reach nearly every American through the national news outlets Court TV and Newsy and popular entertainment brands ION, Bounce, Defy TV, Grit, ION Mystery, Laff and TrueReal. Scripps is the nation’s largest holder of broadcast spectrum. Scripps runs an award-winning investigative reporting newsroom in Washington, D.C., and is the longtime steward of the Scripps National Spelling Bee. Founded in 1878, Scripps has held for decades to the motto, “Give light and the people will find their own way.”

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon20. On December 3rd, management presented to the investment community at NobleCon20, held at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida. The fireside chat presentation with Jason Combs, Chief Financial Officer, highlighted the company’s strategy regarding Scripps Sports, retransmission revenue, political revenue and debt reduction. A replay of the presentation can be viewed by clicking here.

Favorable sports model. Scripps Sports employs a unique model that offers sports teams wider viewership than the traditional Regional Sports Networks (RSNs) model, which is failing. Notably, the company has local broadcasting rights for the Las Vegas Golden Knights, Florida Panthers, and the Arizona Coyotes. Furthermore, the company has the national broadcast rights for the WNBA, which has seen a significant increase in viewership this season.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF) – A Potential Game Changer

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, December 02, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Proposed Acquisition. Last week, MustGrow signed a non-binding term sheet with Univar Solutions Canada Ltd. for the proposed acquisition of NexusBioAg. The acquisition is subject to certain conditions, including due diligence, the negotiation and execution of a definitive asset purchase agreement, and approval by the TSX Venture Exchange.

Light on Details.  Terms of the proposed acquisition were not disclosed. Nor was any detail regarding sales or net income for NexusBioAg. MustGrow also would need to obtain financing for the proposed deal. The purchase consideration for the proposed acquisition is anticipated to include (i) a deferred cash payment and (ii) contingent payments made in 2025 and 2026. The parties are targeting a closing by yearend.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Codere Online (CDRO) – Q3 Beat Despite Exchange Rate Headwinds

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, December 02, 2024

Codere Online refers, collectively, to Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. and its subsidiaries. Codere Online launched in 2014 as part of the renowned casino operator Codere Group. Codere Online offers online sports betting and online casino through its state-of-the art website and mobile application. Codere currently operates in its core markets of Spain, Italy, Mexico, Colombia, Panama and the City of Buenos Aires (Argentina). Codere Online’s online business is complemented by Codere Group’s physical presence throughout Latin America, forming the foundation of the leading omnichannel gaming and casino presence in the region.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strong Q3 results. The company reported 20% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 to €51.7 million. Q3 was also the company’s third consecutive quarter with positive adj. EBITDA generation, which was €1.5 million. Revenue and adj. EBITDA exceeded our estimates of €50.0 million and €0.4 million, respectively.

Exchange rate headwinds in Mexico. Revenue in Mexico grew 27%, year-over-year, despite weakness in the Mexican Peso. Notably, on a constant currency basis, revenue in Mexico was up 43%, as the company continued its focus in the country.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

AZZ, Inc. (AZZ) – Increasing Our FY2025 and FY2026 Estimates and Price Target

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, December 02, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A market leader with a strong growth profile. AZZ is the leading independent provider of hot dip galvanizing and coil coating solutions to a broad range of end markets. With AZZ Precoat Metals’ new manufacturing facility in Washington, Missouri expected to be completed in fiscal year 2025, we expect the facility to contribute to top-line growth in fiscal year 2026 while capital expenditures decline. Approximately 75% of the facility’s production is already committed and could generate approximately $50 million to $60 million in revenue on an annualized basis once production is fully ramped.

Updating estimates.We have increased our FY 2025 revenue, EBITDA, and EPS estimates to $1.598 billion, $344.8 million and $5.00, respectively, from $1.584 billion, $343.0 million, and $4.95. Our estimates reflect stronger sales growth during the remainder of the year and into 2026. Our FY 2026 revenue, EBITDA, and EPS estimates have been increased to $1.673 billion, $367.4 million, and $5.60, respectively, from $1.650 billion, $361.2 million, and $5.45. We think the incoming Trump administration could support pro-growth economic policies that could favorably impact AZZ’s business. While we have not assumed any gross margin expansion during the remainder of FY 2025, gross margin increases modestly in FY 2026 to 23.8% versus our prior estimate of 23.5%.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Travelzoo (TZOO) – Raising Price Target

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Travelzoo® provides its 30 million members with exclusive offers and one-of-a-kind experiences personally reviewed by our deal experts around the globe. We have our finger on the pulse of outstanding travel, entertainment, and lifestyle experiences. We work in partnership with more than 5,000 top travel suppliers—our long-standing relationships give Travelzoo members access to irresistible deals.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Moving towards enhanced growth. We believe that the company’s strategic focus on developing a subscription model will accelerate revenue and cash flow growth in 2025 and beyond. We anticipate that even a modest 1% penetration of its 30+ million members will accelerate 2025 revenue and cash flow growth to 12% and roughly 15%, respectively. 

Providing revenue and cash flow stability. The subscription model is being launched Jan. 1, 2025 and is expected to offer a ballast to the company’s more cyclical advertising driven model. Notably, the company is not expected to abandon its 30 million plus members, but simply migrate a portion of those members to annual subscriptions, largely as those members seek to take advantage of the travel “deals”.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF) – Sales are Trickling In

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

3Q Results. Revenue for the quarter totaled CAD$279,182, including the Company’s CAD$272,500 in deferred revenue. Excluding this, revenue was CAD$6,682, including TerraSante sales’ impact. We estimated revenue of CAD$15,000. Net loss was CAD$1.7 million, or a loss of $0.03/sh, compared to a loss of CAD$1.9 million last year, or  $0.04/sh. We estimated a net loss of CAD$1.9 million or $0.04/sh.

Sales Revenue is Here. Notably, the quarter recognized product sales revenue for the TerraSante product for the first time. We expect TerraSante revenue to begin to impact revenue in a meaningful way in the latter half of 2025. As the Company receives more approvals from different states, we believe the opportunity to showcase TerraSante to farmers can expand, along with revenue.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Traws Pharma (TRAW) – Antiviral Pipeline Makes Progress and Moves Forward

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Onconova Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing novel products for patients with cancer. The Company has proprietary targeted anti-cancer agents designed to disrupt specific cellular pathways that are important for cancer cell proliferation. Onconova’s novel, proprietary multi-kinase inhibitor narazaciclib (formerly ON 123300) is being evaluated in a combination trial with estrogen blockade in advanced endometrial cancer. Based on preclinical and clinical studies of CDK 4/6 inhibitors, Onconova is also evaluating opportunities for combination studies with narazaciclib in additional indications. Onconova’s product candidate rigosertib is being studied in multiple investigator-sponsored studies. These studies include a dose-escalation and expansion Phase 1/2a study of oral rigosertib in combination with nivolumab in patients with KRAS+ non-small cell lung cancer, a Phase 2 program evaluating rigosertib monotherapy in advanced squamous cell carcinoma complicating recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (RDEB-associated SCC), and a Phase 2 trial evaluating rigosertib in combination with pembrolizumab in patients with metastatic melanoma.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Traws Has Made Significant Progress During 2024. In May 2024, Onconova and Transfynydd combined to form Traws Pharmaceuticals. The new company brought together the Transfynydd small molecules for respiratory viral diseases with the Onconova clinical-stage oncology pipeline. The company is planning Phase 2 clinical trials for its antivirals while looking for collaborations and/or partnerships for the oncology pipeline.

Phase 2 Trials Are Planned For Two Antivirals. Tivoxavir marboxil (TRX100) is a protease inhibitor of enzyme needed for the reproduction of the virus that causes seasonal and pandemic influenza. Ratutrelvir (TRX01) inhibits the protease Mpro (the main protease or 3CL), the main protease of SAR-CoV-2 (the COVID-19 virus), but does not require co-administration of a metabolic inhibitor. This avoids the risk of drug-drug interactions and potential side effects. Phase 2 studies for both drugs are expected to begin in 1H24.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Increasing Longer-Term Oil and Gas Royalty Volume Expectations; Price Target Increased

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, November 27, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Adjusting estimates. While our 2024 and 2025 estimates are unchanged, we have increased our 2026 through 2030 EBITDA and EPU estimates to reflect higher year-over-year growth in oil and gas royalty volumes of 12.5% compared to our previous estimate of 2.0% which we think is too conservative based on the partnership’s record. Our commodity price deck is unchanged. We have assumed an average of $75 million per year in oil and gas reserve acquisitions in 2026 through 2030. Based on our higher forward estimates and a modest 100-basis point reduction in our discount rate to 9.5%, we have increased our price target to $33 per share from $28.

Hail to the incoming chief. We expect industries associated with the fossil fuels to benefit from the upcoming change in U.S. Presidential administrations. It is our belief that the Trump Administration may seek to roll back the EPA’s carbon emissions rule which could extend the life of existing coal-fired power plants. Moreover, we think the business climate could improve based on a move toward market-based energy policies and a reduction in regulatory burden.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

FAT Brands (FAT) – Another Step

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, November 26, 2024

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Step 2. FAT Brands completed the second step in its anticipated planned listing of its Twin Hospitality unit as a standalone public company. FAT successfully completed the refinancing of the whole business securitization credit facility of its Twin Peaks and Smokey Bones restaurant brands.

Details. The aggregate principal balance of the new Series 2024-1 fixed rate notes is $416.7 million across four tranches with a weighted average annual interest rate of 9.5%.  The interest rate on the new notes is modestly higher than the rate on the previous securitization notes. However, the first anticipated call date goes from January 2025 to October 2027. We would point out that if the new notes are not repaid or refinanced by October 2027, additional interest equal to 5.0% per annum will accrue on each tranche of notes. The noteholders also are receiving warrants to acquire an aggregate of 5% of the Class A common stock of Twin Hospitality.


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Aurania Resources (AUIAF) – Increasing Financial Flexibility Ahead of the 2025 Exploration Program

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Private placement financing. Aurania intends to raise up to C$4.0 million in a private placement of up to ~8.9 million units at a price of C$0.45 per unit to fund exploration programs in France and Ecuador. Each unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant may be used to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.75 for a period of 24 months following the closing of the offering. The private placement is expected to close in December and is contingent on the receipt of necessary approvals, including by the TSX Venture Exchange.

Concessions in Ecuador. Aurania reached an agreement with Ecuadorian authorities regarding the payment of its 2024 concession fees for its 42 mineral exploration concessions in Ecuador. Aurania has made a partial payment with the balance to be paid within the following six months, including interest associated with the outstanding amount. The concessions remain in good standing.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Lifeway Foods (LWAY) – Another Rejection…And More

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, November 25, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Rejected. Lifeway’s Board rejected Danone’s revised offer to acquire all of the LWAY shares it currently does not own for $27 per share. The Board stated the “revised proposal substantially undervalues Lifeway and is not in the best interests of the Company and its shareholders or other stakeholders.” Danone has yet to respond.

The Third Party. Following the rejection, Edward and Ludmila Smolyansky called for Lifeway’s Board to immediately establish an independent special committee to evaluate and negotiate a transaction with Danone or other potential buyers. In addition, Edward and Ludmila are seeking public disclosure of any valuation analysis done by Kroll when Kroll assisted the Board in June 2023 to explore strategic alternatives.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.