Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

One Stop Systems (OSS) – A Changing of the Guard; CEO Raun to Step Down

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, February 10, 2023

One Stop Systems, Inc. (OSS) designs and manufactures innovative AI Transportable edge computing modules and systems, including ruggedized servers, compute accelerators, expansion systems, flash storage arrays, and Ion Accelerator™ SAN, NAS, and data recording software for AI workflows. These products are used for AI data set capture, training, and large-scale inference in the defense, oil and gas, mining, autonomous vehicles, and rugged entertainment applications. OSS utilizes the power of PCI Express, the latest GPU accelerators and NVMe storage to build award-winning systems, including many industry firsts, for industrial OEMs and government customers. The company enables AI on the Fly® by bringing AI datacenter performance to ‘the edge,’ especially on mobile platforms, and by addressing the entire AI workflow, from high-speed data acquisition to deep learning, training, and inference. OSS products are available directly or through global distributors. For more information, go to www.onestopsystems.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Passing the Torch. In an unexpected move, yesterday the CEO of One Stop Systems, David Raun, announced he is stepping down from the position effective upon the appointment of his successor. We had spoken with Mr. Raun earlier this week about the 2023 vision and he came across as extremely enthusiastic with OSS’s opportunity set, especially related to the defense industry. The company has yet to identify a successor but has retained a search firm to help the Company find a suitable replacement. Notably, Mr. Raun will continue to serve as a member of the company’s Board of Directors.

Defense Experience Valued. Mr. Raun’s decision to step aside appears related to a desire to bring in a CEO with a background in the defense industry, as the near term opportunity set for OSS is in this space. As mentioned in the release, Mr. Raun stated, “I feel it’s time to bring in new leadership with deep experience and high-level contacts in the defense sector to scale the opportunities and growth.”


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DLH Holdings (DLHC) – Post Call Commentary and Updated Models

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, February 10, 2023

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Stronger DLH. The addition of GRSi is a transformative event, in our opinion, creating a more differentiated and powerful Company, with a combined nearly $1 billion of backlog and a new business pipeline that provides significant future growth opportunities. With favorable end markets, DLH is in the right place, at the right time, with the right solutions, in our view.

Strong Growth in Key Programs. DLH saw excellent growth in its key VA and HHS programs. VA pharmacy revenue rose 23% y-o-y to $19.2 million, VA logistics services revenue jumped 15% to $14.5 million, and HHS Head Start revenue increased 34% to $9.1 million, as services offered under this program returned to a more normal pre-COVID level.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

DLH Holdings (DLHC) – A First Look at 1Q23 Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, February 09, 2023

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1QFY23 Results. Revenue totaled $72.7 million, down from $152.8 million in 1Q22, due to the absence of the short-term FEMA contract. DLH reported GAAP earnings of $1.5 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, compared to $7.8 million, or $0.55 per diluted share last year. EBITDA was $6.3 million, or 8.7% of revenue, compared to $13.2 million and 8.6% last year.

Adjusted Results. Adjusting for both the FEMA contribution last year and the partial quarter GRSi contribution in 1Q23, DLH would have reported revenue of $65.9 million, up from $61.7 million a year ago. Adjusted operating income was $5.3 million, compared to $4.9 million. Adjusted net income totaled $3.6 million, or EPS of $0.25, compared to $3.1 million and $0.22 last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $7.2 million, or 10.9% of adjusted revenue, compared to $6.9 million, or 11.1%, last year.


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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 First Look

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, February 09, 2023

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid 4Q22 Operating Results. CoreCivic beat expectations for 4Q22. Reported revenue was $471.4 million, compared to $472.1 million in the year ago period and our estimate of $465 million. Reported net income was $24.4 million, or $0.21 per diluted share, compared to $28 million, or $0.23 per share, last year. We had forecast net income of $14.5 million, or $0.13 per share. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $87.7 million, compared to our $73.1 million estimate, and $103.2 million in 4Q21.

La Palma Normalizing, but Labor Remains a Challenge. CoreCivic substantially completed the transition of inmate populations at La Palma during the quarter, a positive. However, staffing remains a challenge, with temporary incentives, above average wage pressure, and travel costs, all impacting margin, which we anticipate will continue through at least the first quarter of 2023.


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Maple Gold Mines (MGMLF) – Will 2023 Be the Year that Maple Gold Goes Viral?

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, February 08, 2023

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Deep drilling program at Douay. A 10,000-meter drill program is underway at the Douay project, a joint venture with Agnico Eagle. Two additional drill rigs were mobilized at Douay and the company expects progress to accelerate with five rigs turning throughout the first quarter of 2023. A total of six drill holes are planned, several of which are expected to be drilled to at least 2,000 meters downhole. Mines in the Abitibi gold belt are known for vertical continuity and higher grades at depth. Deep drilling will test beneath the current mineral resource and across the Casa Berardi North Fault corridor.

Nearing the target. In January, deep drilling at Douay commenced with Hole DO-23-331, collared approximately 400 meters southwest of the conceptual pit limits at the 531 Zone, currently approaching 1,100 meters downhole. Previous drilling at the 531 Zone returned some of the highest-grade and largest accumulations of gold at Douay based on grade and thickness. The primary target is roughly 1,900 meters downhole where it is expected to intersect the projection of the defined mineralized zone at the 531 Zone significantly down plunge. Hole DO-23-331 will also test the width of the mineralized corridor in this area.


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Alvopetro Energy (ALVOF) – Company update mostly good news

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, February 08, 2023

Alvopetro Energy Ltd.’s vision is to become a leading independent upstream and midstream operator in Brazil. Our strategy is to unlock the on-shore natural gas potential in the state of Bahia in Brazil, building off the development of our Caburé natural gas field and our strategic midstream infrastructure.

Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Production running ahead of our modeling. January sales volumes averaged 2,754 boepd ahead of our 2023-1Q quarterly estimate of 2,710 boepd. This represents a 1% increase over 2022-4Q volumes and a 10% increase over 2022-1Q volumes. The year-over-year increase reflects an increase in processing volumes last summer to 3,000 boepd. Alvopetro will be bringing two new wells to production in the next few months which could further increase sales.

Prices rise again under semi-annual price redetermination. Realized natural gas prices will increase to an expected level of $12.40/mcf (includes price redetermination and various adjustments). Redeterminations are based on a variety of factors including oil prices, gas prices, and exchange rates subject to price adjustment floors and ceilings that rise each period. New prices reflect a 3.6% increase from the previous determination. As we have discussed in the past, current redeterminations would be as high as $15/mcf absent a ceiling and will most likely continue to rise each period even if energy prices decline.


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MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF) – Commercialization Is The Goal

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, February 07, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Conversation With CEO Giasson. We had an opportunity to speak with MustGrow Biologics CEO Corey Giasson about milestones and goals for 2023. In a nutshell, 2023 will be about moving towards commercialization of MustGrow’s organic mustard-derived crop protection and food preservation technology. We believe MustGrow continues to have ample capital to support the Company through commercialization.

Timing? While one cannot pinpoint an exact date, we believe commercialization of TerraMG could occur in 2023, resulting in revenue generation in 2024. The first commercial application likely will be for preplant soil biofumigation, an estimated $1.3 billion market in fruit and vegetables. Additional field trials are currently being conducted for bananas, canola, and pulse crops in this area.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Largo Inc. (LGO) – Coverage Initiated With a $11 Price Target

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, February 07, 2023

Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Largo is a play on growing vanadium demand. We believe Largo, Inc. offers investors an attractive way to play an expected growth in the demand for vanadium due to its use in large-scale energy storage. Largo is the largest producer of vanadium outside of China and Russia. The high vanadium concentration of is Maracas Menchen Mine in Brazil makes Largo one of the lowest-cost producers of vanadium in the world.

Largo is involved with vanadium batteries. In addition to mining vanadium, Largo has formed a division to manufacture and install Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries (VRFB). VRFBs have key advantages over other battery types in terms of scalability, cost, and safety making them ideal for grid operations. VRFB can store energy for months and have operating duration periods of 6-10 hours. Vanadium used in VRFBs has little degradation and can be recovered and reused upon recycling.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

LithiumBank Resources (LBNKF) – Transitioning from Exploration to Development

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, February 03, 2023

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Alberta projects are front and center. Boardwalk and Park Place are both district-scale lithium brine projects with significant potential for commercial development. LithiumBank established Canada’s first indicated mineral resource of lithium brine at its Boardwalk project and assayed wells up to 82.0 milligrams per liter lithium at Park Place. LithiumBank intends to complete a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for Boardwalk in the first quarter of 2023 and a preliminary feasibility study (PFS) in the second half of the year. At Park Place, a mineral resource estimate is expected in the first half of the year, followed by a PEA in the second half of 2023. LithiumBank expects to conduct detailed hydrogeological modeling and brine sampling at both Boardwalk and Park Place to expand and upgrade the classification of their lithium resources to measured and indicated categories.

Brine processing pilot plant. LithiumBank intends to further de-risk Boardwalk and Park Place by commissioning a brine processing pilot plant in the second half of 2023 to produce a concentrated lithium chloride solution. LithiumBank is working with several direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology providers to enhance recovery, lower power consumption, and reduce project capital expenditures. This work and subsequent reservoir sampling is expected to be incorporated into the Boardwalk PEA and Park Place resource estimate.


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1·800·Flowers.com, Inc. (FLWS) – Why Margins Can Continue To Improve

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, February 03, 2023

For more than 45 years, 1-800-Flowers.com has offered truly original floral arrangements, plants and unique gifts to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries, everyday occasions, and seasonal holidays, and to deliver comfort during times of grief. Backed by a caring team obsessed with service, 1-800-Flowers.com provides customers thoughtful ways to express themselves and connect with the most important people in their lives. 1-800-Flowers.com is part of the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. family of brands. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Beats expectations. The company reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $897.9 million and adj. EBITDA of $131.4 million. Revenue was in line with our estimate of $897.1 million and adj. EBITDA beat our estimate of $112.2 million million by 17.1%. 

Better than expected EBITDA margins. The second quarter adj. EBITDA margin was 14.6%, which beat our estimate of 12.5%. The driver of improved EBITDA margins was the strong performance from the Gourmet Food & Gift Baskets segment. The segment beat our adj. EBITDA estimate and adj. EBITDA margin estimate by 18.8% and 15%, respectively. The stronger than expected adj. EBITDA figure was driven by cost cutting initiatives and declining input costs. Management anticipates that adj. EBITDA margins will further improve in the second half of fiscal 2023.


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Schwazze (SHWZ) – Two New Colorado Locations

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, February 02, 2023

Schwazze (OTCQX:SHWZ, NEO:SHWZ) is building a premier vertically integrated regional cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico and will continue to take its operating system to other states where it can develop a differentiated regional leadership position. Schwazze is the parent company of a portfolio of leading cannabis businesses and brands spanning seed to sale. The Company is committed to unlocking the full potential of the cannabis plant to improve the human condition. Schwazze is anchored by a high-performance culture that combines customer-centric thinking and data science to test, measure, and drive decisions and outcomes. The Company’s leadership team has deep expertise in retailing, wholesaling, and building consumer brands at Fortune 500 companies as well as in the cannabis sector. Schwazze is passionate about making a difference in our communities, promoting diversity and inclusion, and doing our part to incorporate climate-conscious best practices.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Locations. Schwazze filed a form 8-K Tuesday night detailing the agreement to purchase two new Colorado locations from Smoke Holdco, LLC. The purchase is for two dispensaries, one in Fort Collins and the other in Garden City, CO. The purchase price is up to $7.5 million, with $3.75 million in cash and $3.15 million in SHWZ shares payable at closing. As always, closing is dependent upon state regulatory approval.

A Move North. The two new locations represent a move by Schwazze into northern Colorado. Fort Collins is approximately 65 miles north of Denver, while Garden City is about 60 miles northeast of Denver. Previously, the most northern location was about 30 miles north of Denver in Longmont. Fort Collins is about 45 minutes south of Cheyenne, Wyoming, a state in which cannabis remains illegal.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

FAT Brands Inc. (FAT) – Selling Additional Notes

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, February 02, 2023

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Note Sale. In a January 31st 8-K filing, FAT Brands reported that on January 25, 2023, the Company completed the sale of an aggregate principal amount of $40 million of Series 2022-1 6.00% Fixed Rate Senior Secured Notes, Class A-2 issued by its special purpose, wholly-owned subsidiary, FAT Brands GFG Royalty I, LLC. The Class A-2 Notes were offered and sold to qualified institutional buyers.

Terms. Scheduled payments of principal and interest on the Notes are required to be made on a quarterly basis, in each case from amounts that are available for payment thereon under the Base Indenture. The legal final maturity of the Notes is July 22, 2051, but it is anticipated that, unless earlier prepaid to the extent permitted under the Indenture, the Notes will be repaid on July 25, 2023. If the Notes are not repaid or refinanced by the anticipated call date, additional interest equal to 1.0% per annum will accrue on each tranche of Notes. If the Notes have not been repaid or refinanced the by July 25, 2026, the additional interest accruing on the Class A-2 Notes will increase to a rate of 2.5% per annum.


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Motorsport Games (MSGM) – Stock Soars On Debt For Equity Swap

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, February 01, 2023

Motorsport Games, a Motorsport Network company, combines innovative and engaging video games with exciting esports competitions and content for racing fans and gamers around the globe. The Company is the officially licensed video game developer and publisher for iconic motorsport racing series across PC, PlayStation, Xbox, Nintendo Switch and mobile, including NASCAR, INDYCAR, 24 Hours of Le Mans and the British Touring Car Championship (“BTCC”). Motorsport Games is an award-winning esports partner of choice for 24 Hours of Le Mans, Formula E, BTCC, the FIA World Rallycross Championship and the eNASCAR Heat Pro League, among others.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Debt for equity swap. The company announced that it entered into an agreement with its majority shareholder, Motorsport Network, to repay $1 million in debt for 338,983 MSGM shares. The move significantly improves the company’s liquidity and reduces its interest expense. Notably, the move adds confidence that Motorsport Network has confidence in Motorsport Games.

Regains compliance with listing rules. Following the move, the company received notice from Nasdaq that Motorsport  regained full compliance with the Nasdaq Listing Rules.


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