Schwazze (SHWZ) – Keep On Growing


Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Schwazze (OTCQX:SHWZ, NEO:SHWZ) is building a premier vertically integrated regional cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico and will continue to take its operating system to other states where it can develop a differentiated regional leadership position. Schwazze is the parent company of a portfolio of leading cannabis businesses and brands spanning seed to sale. The Company is committed to unlocking the full potential of the cannabis plant to improve the human condition. Schwazze is anchored by a high-performance culture that combines customer-centric thinking and data science to test, measure, and drive decisions and outcomes. The Company’s leadership team has deep expertise in retailing, wholesaling, and building consumer brands at Fortune 500 companies as well as in the cannabis sector. Schwazze is passionate about making a difference in our communities, promoting diversity and inclusion, and doing our part to incorporate climate-conscious best practices.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A New Store. Schwazze recently announced the opening of a new R. Greenleaf store in New Mexico. The new store will be located at 800 W. Pierce Street in Carlsbad and will have a grand opening date of March 25, 2023. The opening makes it eight new dispensaries in New Mexico since Schwazze acquired R. Greenleaf in February 2022.

City Details. Carlsbad has an overall population of 29,278 with a median household income of approximately $70,000 as of 2020 from Data USA. The town is somewhat competitive, as it contains 14 other dispensaries according to the New Mexico Regulation and Licensing Department. Carlsbad is located in the southeast portion of New Mexico as well, near the border of Texas, which is an area of focus for Schwazze as local dispensaries can benefit from out-of-state customers.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Channelchek Takeaway Series – PDAC Minerals Exploration & Mining Convention

Takeaways from PDAC Minerals and Mining Convention

Replays Now Available on Channelchek!

This annual event in Toronto, Canada is known for attracting up to 30,000 attendees from over 130+ countries for its educational programming, networking events, and outstanding business opportunities. Since it began in 1932, the PDAC Convention has grown in size, stature and influence. Today, it is the event of choice for the world’s mineral industry hosting more than 1,100 exhibitors and 2,500 investors.

The Noble team attended meetings, networking events and interviewed c-suite executives. We captured it all on video and featured their collective takeaway exclusively on Channelchek. The next best thing to being there. And at no cost. Replays coming to Channelchek March 28, exclusively for registered members.

Replays are available exclusively to Channelchek members. It’s totally free to join the community, just click the join button at the top of the page.

Noble Capital Markets Senior Research Analyst Mark Reichman provides his takeaways from the PDAC Metals and Mining Convention.

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Piedmont Lithium (PLL)

CEO Keith Phillips

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Newrange Gold Corp. (NRGOF)

CEO Robert Archer

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Mountain Boy Minerals (MBYMF)

CEO Laurence Roulston

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Maple Gold Mines Ltd. (MGMLF)

CEO Matthew Horner

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LithiumBank Resources Corp. (LBNKF)

CEO Robert Shewchuk

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Labrador Gold Corp. (NKOSF)

President Roger Moss

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Eskay Mining Corp. (ESKYF)

CEO Mac Balkam

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Endeavour Silver (EXK)

CEO Daniel Dickson

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Comstock Inc. (LODE)

CEO Corrado De Gasperis

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Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)

VP, IR Spiros Cacos

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Aurania Resources (AUIAF)

CEO Dr. Keith Barron

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Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)

IR Jean-Maire Clouet

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Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – 4Q Post Call Commentary


Monday, March 20, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A New Strategic Plan. After being at the Company for six months, CEO Travis Boone and CFO Scott Thanisch released a strategic plan designed to unlock Orion’s full potential for long-term, sustainable growth. While ambitious, we believe the ingredients are in place for a successful outcome.

End Markets Remain Positive. The Marine sector and the Concrete segment both continue to enjoy positive tailwinds. Government money continues to pour into the Marine space, although the associated agencies need to actual award contracts, while population growth in Texas is driving demand for concrete services.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Comstock Inc. (LODE) – Advancing to Commercialization


Monday, March 20, 2023

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A look back at 2022. Last year was a productive year for Comstock. Most importantly, Comstock’s Cellulosic Fuels business commenced production and shipping of bio-intermediate product samples to prospective customers and is advancing licensing agreement discussions with multiple renewable fuel producers. Comstock expanded the leadership of its metals recycling business and received a conditional use permit to operate a universal waste storage facility. Within its mining segment, the company reconsolidated its properties which host measured and indicated resources containing 605,000 and 5,880,000 ounces of gold and silver, respectively, and inferred resources containing 297,000 ounces of gold and 2,572,000 ounces of silver.

Goals for 2023. Executing one or more license agreements associated with its biorefining technologies and commencing development of commercial scale projects remains the most significant revenue opportunity in 2023. Within its mining segment, Comstock expects to publish preliminary economic assessments for the Lucerne and Dayton resource areas. Within its lithium-ion battery recycling segment, the company expects to advance the technology readiness for broader material recycling, including photovoltaics.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

1·800·Flowers.com, Inc. (FLWS) – Focused on Innovation and Acquisitions


Monday, March 20, 2023

For more than 45 years, 1-800-Flowers.com has offered truly original floral arrangements, plants and unique gifts to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries, everyday occasions, and seasonal holidays, and to deliver comfort during times of grief. Backed by a caring team obsessed with service, 1-800-Flowers.com provides customers thoughtful ways to express themselves and connect with the most important people in their lives. 1-800-Flowers.com is part of the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. family of brands. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Highlights from recent NDR. This report highlights investor meetings hosted in Southern Florida last week by Chris McCann, CEO; Tom Hartnett, President; Bill Shea, CFO; and Andy Milevoj, Sr. VP Investor Relations.  

On the hunt for acquisitions. The company has made successful acquisitions during uncertain economic times, such as the acquisition of Harry & David in 2014, a year of sluggish economic growth. Management indicated that acquisitions is the best use of cash at this time, which may position the company for enhanced revenue and cash flow growth. Notably, the company indicated that it has always acquired for cash.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

SPACtrac Report – Heritage Distilling Co.: Liquor With A Kicker

Noble Capital Markets SPACtrac Report
Thursday, March 02, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

The Deal. Better World Acquisition Corp. will be merging with Heritage Distilling Company, Inc. in a deal that will bring Heritage Distilling public. The deal, which values Heritage Distilling at an enterprise value of $122.2 million, provides growth capital to achieve Heritage Distilling’s aim to become the leading national craft spirits company.

The Target. Founded in 2012, Heritage Distilling is a leading, fast-growing distiller of innovative premium brands, with a history of award winning, innovative products. The Company is expanding its wholesale footprint nationwide in conjunction with RNDC, the second largest spirits distributor in the U.S., while its proprietary Tribal Beverage Network provides the potential of developing a “local” presence across the nation that will generate high margin, tax advantaged recurring revenue license streams.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Noble Capital Markets Annual Investor Conference – NobleCon – to be held at Florida Atlantic University December 3-5

More info @ noblecon19.com

Boca Raton, FL, March 1, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — In a joint statement, Noble Capital Markets, Inc. (“Noble”) and Florida Atlantic University announced today that NobleCon19 – Noble’s 19th Annual Small Cap Investor Conference – will be held at the University’s College of Business Executive Education facility, Dec. 3-5, 2023, in Boca Raton, Florida. The 52,000 square foot, state-of-the-art facility was opened August 2020. 

Noble has worked with the University for over a decade and was instrumental in the development of their Financial Analyst Program, and Noble’s Intern Program has generated great assets with graduates from the University. “We are extremely proud of our long-standing relationship with Florida Atlantic University,” said Nico Pronk, Noble’s President & CEO. “This new collaboration certainly elevates it to a whole new level.”

Vegar Wiik, Executive Director of the College of Business, Executive Education agrees, stating “Our vision for the College and this magnificent structure is to effectively integrate our curriculum with established businesses. Daniel Gropper, dean of FAU’s College of Business, said the financial industry is an important, integral part of the economy. “I can’t think of a better way to expose our students to the importance of emerging growth companies than to have 100 plus executive teams in the halls of our campus,” he said.

The entire College of Business Executive Education facility will transform into NobleCon19. Each presentation room will accommodate investors, in tiered seating with personal monitors. High-definition cameras, full-room microphones (to capture audience questions), three large screens, and full webcasting capabilities will offer the most technologically advanced conference environment on the circuit. Attendees will also experience similarly equipped rooms for panel presentations, private breakouts, and meetings, and in large gathering spaces, both indoors and out, as well as 800 free covered parking spaces. Florida Atlantic University is centrally located in Boca Raton, off I-95, only minutes from the Boca Raton Airport, and less than half an hour from Fort Lauderdale International Airport. Privaira, located at Boca Raton Airport is the official private air charter company for NobleCon19. A wide range of hotel accommodations are available within a five-mile radius, from economy to the ultra-luxurious “The Boca Raton.” Noble will be working with several properties to offer NobleCon19 attendees discounted rates.

The format of NobleCon will include company presentations followed by fire-side chats with Noble analysts, and select one-on-one meetings for qualified investors only, as well as several industry panel presentations. On the networking side, Noble is planning for informative keynote speakers and live entertainment, in an effort expand the business day in a more casual, conversational environment. All company presentations and panel discussions will be digitally streamed and made available exclusively on www.channelchek.com – Noble’s proprietary investment community portal.

Who should attend? Public companies from any business sector with market capitalizations of below $3-4 billion. Private companies planning a capital raise, considering becoming public, or an M&A event. NobleCon19 will suit every level of investor; high net worth individuals, family offices, self-directed investors, private equity, RIAs, financial advisors, equity analysts, and institutional investors. www.NobleCon19.com

About Florida Atlantic University

Florida Atlantic University, established in 1961, officially opened its doors in 1964 as the fifth public university in Florida. Today, the University serves more than 30,000 undergraduate and graduate students across six campuses located along the southeast Florida coast. In recent years, the University has doubled its research expenditures and outpaced its peers in student achievement rates. Through the coexistence of access and excellence, FAU embodies an innovative model where traditional achievement gaps vanish. FAU is designated a Hispanic-serving institution, ranked as a top public university by U.S. News & World Report and a High Research Activity institution by the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching. For more information, visit www.fau.edu.

About Noble Capital Markets

Noble Capital Markets, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 as a full-service SEC / FINRA registered broker-dealer, dedicated exclusively to serving underfollowed emerging growth companies through investment banking, wealth management, trading & execution, and equity research activities. Over the past 39 years, Noble has raised billions of dollars for companies and published more than 45,000 equity research reports. www.noblecapitalmarkets.com  contact@noblecapitalmarkets.com

NobleCon19 Sponsors

Learn More: Seeking Alpha  |  Privaira  |  AON  |  The Money Channel

Learn More: The Nuvo Group  |  FAU  |  Boca Raton  |  Investor Brand Network  |  SLS
Harter Secrest & Emery  |  Marcum  |  GreenbergTraurig  |  Lowenstein Sandler  |  StoneX

Learn More: CFA Society South Florida  |  Palm Beach Hedge Fund Association 
 Boca Magazine | Delray Magazine

Biotechnology Industry Report: Webcast Highlights Long COVID Symptoms and Potential Treatments

Thursday, February 23, 2023

Robert LeBoyer, Vice President, Research Analyst, Life Sciences , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures

Webinar. BIO (Biotechnology Innovation Organization, an industry group) sponsored a webinar titled, “Long COVID:  What Will It Take To Accelerate Therapeutic Progress?” Speakers included officials from government, academia, and drug development companies to discuss the scientific basis of the condition, its public health implications, and its potential treatments.  Presenting companies included Axcella Health (AXLA) and Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP).

Long COVID Symptoms and Prevalence.  The program began with how Long COVID became recognized as a condition, its incidence, and its patient population. Scientific presentations showed the biological effects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus on cells in the body, including the connection between Long COVID and other chronic conditions such as CFS/ME (chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis). Symptoms and their duration can vary widely, including inflammation, fatigue, organ dysfunction, and reactivation of latent viral reservoirs.  The presenters agreed that the range of symptoms and their variability will require numerous drugs.

Axcella Health Presented AXA1125. Chief Scientific Officer at Axcella Health, Dr. Margaret Koziel, presented the scientific basis for the use of AXA1125 in Long COVID, including its effects on inflammation, mitochondrial dysfunction, and fatigue.  Data from the Phase 2a trial was presented, showing improvements in function, and biomarkers that correlate with reductions in inflammation and mitochondrial dysfunction. The design of the Phase 2b/3 trial was also presented.

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Presented Data From TNX-102 SL. Tonix is currently enrolling patients in its Phase 2 PREVAIL trial testing TNX-102 SL, sublingual cyclobenzaprine, in Long COVID. This trial is based on common symptoms with fibromyalgia and chronic fatigue syndrome, such as pain, fatigue, and insomnia.  Projected enrollment is about 470 patients with a primary endpoint of change in daily pain score from baseline over the 14-week treatment period.

Conclusion. The BIO webinar speakers agreed that the high variability and large population would require several drugs to adequately treat patients. For Axcella, we believe the presentation could raise awareness of AXA1125 and its “Phase 2b/3 Ready” status, allowing it obtain trial funding through partnerships, government funding, or from investors.  Tonix was able to present how TNX-102 SL overlaps with other pain syndromes and how it could treat symptoms, as well as to highlight its clinical milestones in the coming year.

Summary. BIO (Biotechnology Innovation Organization, and industry group) sponsored a webinar titled, “Long COVID: What Will It Take To Accelerate Therapeutic Progress?” Speakers included officials from government, academia, and drug development companies to discuss the scientific basis of the condition, its public health implications, and its potential treatments.  Presenting companies included Axcella Health (AXLS) and Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP).

The program began with the history of Long COVID, how it became recognized as a condition, and its prevalence. Scientific presentations discussed the SARS-CoV-2 viral infection and its effects on different organs, as well as the mechanisms of infection that lead to fatigue, cerebral effects (brain fog), and chronic pain.  The speakers pointed out that the range and severity of symptoms can vary widely, making it likely that numerous drugs will be needed.

The overlap between Long COVID and other chronic conditions, such as CFS/ME (chronic fatigue syndrome/myalgic encephalomyelitis), was also discussed. The common features in these conditions were cited in the “National Research Action Plan on Long COVID”, published by the Department of Health and Human Services in August 2022.

Axcella Health Spoke About AXA1125. Chief Scientific Officer at Axcella Health, Dr. Margaret Koziel, presented the scientific basis for the use of AXA1125 in Long COVID, including its effect on inflammation, mitochondrial dysfunction, epithelial dysfunction, and fatigue. Data from the Phase 2a trial was presented, showing improvements in physical and mental function.  These data included biomarkers that correlate with improvements in inflammation and mitochondrial function. The design of the Phase 2b/3 trial was also presented.

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Presented Data From TNX-102 SL. Tonix is currently enrolling patients in its Phase 2 PREVAIL trial testing TNX-102 SL, sublingual cyclobenzaprine, in Long COVID. This trial is based on common symptoms with fibromyalgia and chronic fatigue syndrome, such as pain, fatigue, and insomnia.  Projected enrollment is about 470 patients with a primary endpoint of change in daily pain score from baseline over the 14-week treatment period.

TNX-102 SL showed positive results in its Phase 3 RELIEF study in fibromyalgia, although the confirmatory Phase 3 RALLY missed its primary endpoint.  After analyzing the RALLY trial, the Phase 3 RESILIENT trial began.  An interim analysis from the RESILIENT trial is expected in 2Q23. 

Conclusion. The BIO webinar gave different perspectives on Long COVID and discussed different approaches to treatment. For Axcella, we believe the presentation could raise awareness of AXA1125 data and its “Phase 2b/3” ready status, allowing it obtain trial funding through partnerships, government funding, or from investors.  For Tonix, presentations on the common features of Long COVID and chronic pain syndromes support the use of Tonix’s TNX-102 SL, and show how its Phase 2 PREVAIL clinical trial design could become an effective treatment.

Companies Mentioned In This Report:

Axcella Health  (AXLA, Outperform)

Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP, Outperform)

GENERAL DISCLAIMERS

All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “we”, “us”, or “our” are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc.(“Noble”) and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.

This publication is intended for information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to buy/sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security mentioned in this report, nor shall there be any sale of the security herein in any state or domicile in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or domicile. This publication and all information, comments, statements or opinions contained or expressed herein are applicable only as of the date of this publication and subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Noble accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Noble. This report is not to be relied upon as a substitute for the exercising of independent judgement. Noble may have published, and may in the future publish, other research reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information provided in this report. Noble is under no obligation to bring to the attention of any recipient of this report, any past or future reports. Investors should only consider this report as single factor in making an investment decision.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or discussed to another party, without the written consent of Noble Capital Markets, Inc. (“Noble”). Noble seeks to update its research as appropriate, but may be unable to do so based upon various regulatory constraints. Research reports are not published at regular intervals; publication times and dates are based upon the analyst’s judgement. Noble professionals including traders, salespeople and investment bankers may provide written or oral market commentary, or discuss trading strategies to Noble clients and the Noble proprietary trading desk that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.
The majority of companies that Noble follows are emerging growth companies. Securities in these companies involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Noble research reports may not be suitable for some investors and as such, investors must take extra care and make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment based upon risk tolerance, investment objectives and financial status.

Company Specific Disclosures

The following disclosures relate to relationships between Noble and the company (the “Company”) covered by the Noble Research Division and referred to in this research report.
Noble is not a market maker in any of the companies mentioned in this report. Noble intends to seek compensation for investment banking services and non-investment banking services (securities and non-securities related) with any or all of the companies mentioned in this report within the next 3 months

ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE

Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87

WARNING

This report is intended to provide general securities advice, and does not purport to make any recommendation that any securities transaction is appropriate for any recipient particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decision, recipients should assess, or seek advice from their advisors, on whether any relevant part of this report is appropriate to their individual circumstances. If a recipient was referred to Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by an investment advisor, that advisor may receive a benefit in respect of
transactions effected on the recipients behalf, details of which will be available on request in regard to a transaction that involves a personalized securities recommendation. Additional risks associated with the security mentioned in this report that might impede achievement of the target can be found in its initial report issued by Noble Capital Markets, Inc.. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose unless authorized by Noble Capital Markets, Inc..

RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION

Independence Of View
All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.

Receipt of Compensation
No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed in the public
appearance and/or research report.

Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest
Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.

Entertainment & Leisure Industry Report: A Feel Good New Year, So Far

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Tuesday, February 14, 2022

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures

Overview: Entertainment and Leisure stocks have had a good start to the New Year, but the better performance has not erased the disaster that was 2022. We believe that stocks appear to be baking in a mild economic downturn, a soft landing, so to speak. Given that we are skeptic of the conventional thought, we take a cautious stance regarding the recent lift in valuations and encourage investors to take an accumulation approach.

Entertainment:Bowlero on a roll. The Noble Entertainment Index performed well, up 1.5% in the last 12 months, compared with negative returns for the S&P 500 (-7.1%). Although there were broad economic challenges over the past year, entertainment companies benefited from the general public’s return to “normal” following the COVID pandemic. We believe that in-person experiential entertainment recovery is still in its early stage and should continue into 2024.

Gaming: Looking for value in the rubble. The Noble Gaming Index is down 53.1% in the past year, well below the S&P 500, down 7.1%. But, recently, the Noble Gaming Index increased 12.9% in the last quarter, outperforming the 3.2% increase in the general market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index. A reflex bounce? Short squeeze? Or, were the shares oversold? We encourage investors to play it safe.

Esports: Motorsport Games revs its engine. The company was full steam ahead in investing in its new product launches in 2023, but it was running out of cash. Fortunately, a couple of favorable moves to add liquidity set the stock soaring, up 1,600% in one day, creating further opportunities to raise cash. Now, flush with cash, investors look toward the product rollouts.

Leisure: Travel to new heights. The U.S. Travel Association updated its 2023 outlook, projecting a resilient domestic leisure travel market. Consumers appear eager to splurge on travel, in spite of the economic headwinds. We focus on one of our favorite internet media plays, Travelzoo. The company recently updated Fourth Quarter 2022 guidance with revenues expected to be roughly $18.5 million, a strong 31% increase year over year.

Overview

Have economic prospects improved?

The Entertainment & Leisure industries performed better since the beginning of the year, providing some relief to the downturn that investors suffered in 2022. As Figure #1 Entertainment 12 Month Trailing Stock Performance highlights, the Entertainment and Leisure Indices are still recovering and many have yet to offset the 2022 declines, except for the Entertainment stocks. The Entertainment stocks not only have performed well in the first quarter, but have beat the general market as measured by the S&P 500 Index over the past year. The Noble Entertainment Index is up a modest 1.5% in the past year, better than the general market’s 7.1% decline. It is important to note that the Noble Indices are market cap weighted. As such, not all stocks reflected the favorable relative performance. 

What is driving the improved stock performance in the latest quarter? We believe that investors have become more positive about the economic outlook, with conventional wisdom now anticipating a soft economic landing or a mild economic recession. This is a shift toward an optimistic tone from one that anticipated a severe economic recession. The Federal Reserve caused the dire outlook. The Fed signaled that it will continue to raise interest rates until inflation is arrested, in spite of the adverse impact on the economy and jobs. But, since then, conventional wisdom on the economy has brightened as inflation seems to have subsided. The more favorable economic outlook is exemplified by a Wall Street firm that decreased the risk of an economic recession in 2023 by a sizable 25%.

We tend to be skeptics and conservative. As such, we tend not to buy into strength. Our view is that the stocks were oversold and reflected recessionary type valuations. But, have the economic prospects really improved that much? We encourage investors to take an accumulation approach, focusing on some of our favorite stocks highlighted in this report, including Bowlero, Codere Online Luxembourg, Engine Gaming and Media, and Travelzoo. 

Figure #1 Entertainment 12 Month Trailing Stock Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Entertainment

Bowlero on a roll

The Noble Entertainment Index performed well, up 1.5% in the last 12 months, compared with negative returns for the S&P 500 down 7.1%. Although there were broad economic challenges over the past year, entertainment companies benefited from the general public’s return to “normal” following the COVID pandemic. We believe that the trend toward social gathering and in-person activities are helping to offset broader macroeconomic headwinds. While some industries received a boost during late 2020 and 2021 when consumers were spending stimulus checks on online shopping, the recovery for in-person entertainment has been more recent. In our view, the recovery in experiential, in-person entertainment appears to be gaining traction and the recovery could continue into 2024.

As Figure #2 Entertainment Revenue Growth illustrates, virtually all of the experiential entertainment companies reported strong revenue growth in the latest reported quarter, (the calendar third quarter end September 2022). One of the examples of the in-person recovery is in bowling centers, in general, and Bowlero, specifically. The company recently announced that it eclipsed $1 billion in Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) revenue as of December 31, 2022, which included 48% same store sales growth over the prior year. Additionally, Bowlero added 40 bowling centers over the past 18 months as it continues to successfully execute on its roll-up strategy. As revenues have improved, so too have margins. As Figure #3 Entertainment EBITDA Marginsillustrates, Bowlero delivered industry leading margins in the latest reported quarter at 24.8%.

Bowlero is on a roll. With the BOWL shares up roughly 50% in the past 12 months, the shares have outperformed both the Noble Entertainment Index up 1.5%, as well as the broader market, as measured by the S&P 500, which decreased -7.1%. In spite of the favorable fundamental tailwind, the shares trade in line with its experiential entertainment peers. Figure #4 Entertainment Comparables illustrates that the BOWL shares trade at 9.7 times Enterprise Value to our estimated 2023 adj. EBITDA, below the peer average of 10.7 times, despite the company’s industry leading fundamentals. Given its favorable fundamental outlook, prospects for enhanced revenue and cash flow growth through acquisitions and favorable internal growth, and compelling stock valuation, the BOWL shares lead our list for favorites in the Entertainment industry. 

Figure #2 Entertainment Revenue Growth 

Source: Company 10Qs 

Figure #3 Entertainment EBITDA Margins 

Source: Company 10Qs

Figure #4 Entertainment Comparables 

Source: Company filings and Noble estimates 

Gaming

Looking for value in the rubble

The Noble Gaming Index is down 53.1% in the past year, well below the S&P 500, down 7.1%. In our view, the poor performance of Gaming stocks was the result of investors trying to take risk off the table. Many Gaming companies are still in developmental stages, with high marketing and customer acquisition costs. As such, many in the industry are unprofitable and rely on the balance sheets to fund operations. Before Covid, these companies benefited from the easy money policies and favorable capital markets, which many relied on for funding. But, with the recent sharp rise in interest rates and difficult general market conditions to raise capital, the music has stopped. Gaming stock valuations are now more scrutinized, in an environment of increasing cost of capital. As such, we believe industry players that are already profitable, and those with little to no debt and ample cash on the balance sheet are best positioned for to lead the industry.

Our focus is on the shares of Codere Online Luxembourg, CDRO. The CDRO shares are down 42.4% in the last year, underperforming the S&P 500’s -7.1% return. However, despite a tough 12-month period, the CDRO shares outperformed the Noble Gaming Index, which dropped 53.1%. We believe that the relative outperformance of the CDRO shares over the past year reflects its better financial position than most of its peers. Most recently, the Noble Gaming Index improved, as illustrated in Figure #5 Three Month Stock Performance. The Noble Gaming Index increased 12.9%, outperforming the 3.2% increase in the general market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index. A reflex bounce? Short squeeze? Or, were the shares oversold? It appears to be all the above for many of the stocks in the index. The largest gains were from companies that appeared to be struggling and had favorable news. We believe that investing in struggling companies with limited access to capital is a dangerous place to be.

In terms of Codere Online Luxembourg, the fundamentals of the company appear favorable. Codere Online’s cash burn has been within expectations and the company had a strong cash balance of  €72 million and virtually no long-term debt as of September 30, 2022. As such, the company appears positioned to continue executing its growth strategy in Latin America, which for the time being consists of broadening its presence in key markets such as Mexico and Columbia, and aggressively expanding in Argentina. 

The company’s growth could be bolstered if Brazil begins regulating sports betting in 2023. Importantly, Entain CEO Jette Nygaard-Anderson, recently stated that she expects Brazil to complete process of regulating sports betting in 2023, citing new administration of President Lula. In summary, Codere Online is distinguished from many of its peers, with an established foothold in key Latin American markets, flush with cash to penetrate existing markets and enter new ones. It has the ability to become the industry leader in many of its markets. 

Near current levels, the iGaming industry peer group is trading at 5.0 times Enterprise Value to 2023 revenues, illustrated in Figure #6 Gaming Comparables. Codere Online Luxemburg (CDRO) is one of our favorite plays in the iGaming industry due to several factors. As mentioned above, the company has virtually no long-term debt and €72 million in cash, as of September 30, 2022. We believe that the company has a favorable runway to reach cash flow breakeven while continuing to fund its expansion in the meantime. Furthermore, in our view, given its ability to invest in its developing markets, the company appears to have the ability to become the preeminent online gambling leader in many Latin American markets. Finally, the CDRO shares appear compelling, trading near 2.6 times expected 2023 revenue, well below peers. As a result, we view the CDRO shares as among our favorite online gambling plays, with the shares rated Outperform with $9 price target.   

Figure #5 Three Month Stock Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Figure #6 Gaming Comparables 

Source: Company filings and Noble estimates 

Esports

Motorsport revs its engine

The Noble Esports Index was down 53% over the past year, underperforming the broader market, which was down 7%, as as measured by the S&P 500 Index. Not unlike many other emerging industries, Esports has been battered by macroeconomic headwinds over the past year. Investors are placing more importance on companies that are generating positive cash flow, rather than speculating on future profitability, given recessionary concerns and elevated interest rates. While the Esports industry has shown favorable trends in the number of viewers and hours watched, many companies are still burning cash and may need to raise additional capital. Total hours watched of esports content was up 40% in Q3 of 2022, illustrated in Figure #7 Esports Viewership. 

The best performing stock in the Esports index was HUYA, which only declined by 9.7% on a TTM basis. Huya is the largest Esports live streaming platform in China and recently expanded into a variety of real-time events. Huya benefits from the favorable growth trends of the Esports and live streaming industries, as it does not rely on the popularity of a single game or tournament. The worst performing stock in the Esports index is Esports Entertainment Group (GMBL), which declined 97.2% on a TTM basis. The company burned through its cash and had limited access to additional capital.

In the latest quarter, however, the Noble Esports Index rebounded, up a strong 47.9%, as depicted in the earlier in Figure #5 Three Month Stock Performance. The strength in the quarter was due to a relatively few number of stocks, including HUYA (up 135.8%) and two of our favorite plays, Motorsport Games (MSGM) and Engine Gaming and Media (GAME), which increased 68.9% and 149.8%, respectively. In fact, Motorsport Games increased a stunning 1,618.8% with a trading day following news of a debt for equity swap. 

Motorsport Games revs its engine 

Motorsport Games is a publisher of motorsport video games, with the rights to iconic racing franchises such as NASCAR and 24 Hour of LeMans. The company recently completed a debt for equity swap which led to a surprisingly strong increase in the stock valuation. This allowed the company to complete several direct offerings, eliminating all company debt and raising over $11 million in cash. The capital raise alleviated liquidity concerns, allowing the company to continue developing games. In our view, the launch of several games in 2023 should allow the company to swing toward cash flow break even. We have moved our rating to Market Perform given that the shares blew through our $9 price target. Our rating is under review as the company updates investors on its product rollout roadmap and the level of cash burn until it launches its upcoming products. 

Engine Gaming & Media 

Another one of our favorites is Engine Gaming & Media (GAME). Engine Gaming & Media is a multi-platform media company engaged in most aspects of the Esports industry. The company’s media division coordinates video access and advertising, data analytics, and connects advertisers to social influencers in the gaming industry. Figure #7 Esports Viewership and Figure #8 Esports Live Streaming are from Stream Hatchet, the company’s live streaming data and Esports analytics business.

The company reported its fiscal first quarter results on January 17, 2023, which beat our expectations. Notably, the company’s influencer and gaming analytics software as a service revenue, a key growth vehicle, grew revenue by a strong 34.6% on a year over year basis. In addition, the company plans to merge with GameSquare Esports, which it expects will provide scale and provide cost synergies. Management indicated that the combination should accelerate the new company’s path toward profitability. We plan to update our models as more details emerge regarding the upcoming merger. 

Figure #9 Esports Comparables highlight the stock valuations in the Esports industry. The valuations of many of the stocks, including Motorsport Games and Engine Gaming and Media are in flux. As mentioned, Motorsport Games significantly improved its financial position with recent equity raises and debt for equity swaps. Engine Gaming and Media’s fundamentals likely will change with a planned merger. In our view, the latest quarter has been a watershed moment for these companies. We look forward toward reevaluating our models, ratings and price targets upon more details on the developments from the respective companies. 

Figure #7 Esports Viewership 

Source: Stream Hatchet

Figure #8 Esports Live Streaming 

Source: Stream Hatchet

Figure #9 Esports Comparables

Source: Company filings and Noble estimates

Leisure

Travel to new heights

Once again, we focus on the travel industry in our Leisure section due to some favorable developments and outlook. Notably, the U.S. Travel Foundation forecasts an increase in travel spending in 2023 above both 2022 and 2019 levels. This would indicate that the travel industry has fully recovered from the depressed Covid impacted levels. Airline flights are full and there is high demand for hotels, even though pricing for those rooms are significantly higher. What is driving the demand and will it continue?

For the U.S., there are three factors influencing the relatively favorable outlook for the U.S. travel industry. The domestic leisure travel has been resilient in spite of higher gas prices, hotel rooms and airline tickets. A recent article from Forbes suggests that U.S. leisure travel is rebounding despite inflation as it is one area where people are willing to splurge. A second contributing factor to the favorable outlook is Business travel. Business travel is expected to be somewhat weaker in 2023 given the prospect of a mild economic recession in 2023. But, the business travel outlook is improved as a severe economic downturn appears less likely. The weak area has been international inbound travel to the U.S. We believe that this is a function of the strong U.S. dollar relative to other major currencies. On the flip side, international travel from the U.S. appears to be favorable given the U.S. dollar strength. 

We believe that the inflationary trends, higher airline fares and hotel rates, as well as sluggish international travel, all have prompted travelers to seek travel deals. Consequently, one of our favorite plays on the travel industry, Travelzoo, has seen fundamental improvement. As an internet media company, its business is derived from its advertisers and travel partners to offer travel deals to its customers. This is different from travel suppliers and online travel agencies that rely on travel demand. Notably, Travelzoo recently updated its fourth quarter revenue guidance to be roughly $18.5 million, an increase of a strong 31% year over year, in line with our forecast.

Travelzoo is one of our favorite plays for the recovering travel industry. The shares are down roughly 46% in the past year, which we believe could present an attractive entry point for investors. Since reaching lows in December near $4.11 per share, the TZOO shares have rallied, up roughly 25% since that time. In our view, the shares may have reacted to a recent merger involving its founder, Ralph Bartel. The merger brought with it an influx of cash, but increased Mr. Bartels ownership of the company from slightly over 50% to over 60%. We view the move favorably as it provides increase liquidity for the company. Given the prospect for a favorable environment for travel deals, we view Travelzoo as among our favored ways to play the travel industry and the subsequent improved advertising from its travel partners. We rate the shares Outperform with a $9 price target. 

Research reports on companies mentioned in this report are available by clicking below:

Bowlero Corp. (BOWL)

Codere Online Luxembourg (CDRO)

Engine Gaming and Media (GAME)

Motorsport Games (MSGM)

Travelzoo (TZOO)



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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE

Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
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Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NEGG) – A Growth Company Not Fully Hatched


Monday, February 06, 2023

Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ: NEGG), founded in 2001 and based in the City of Industry, Calif., near Los Angeles, is a leading global online retailer for PC hardware, consumer electronics, gaming peripherals, home appliances, automotive and lifestyle technology. Newegg also serves businesses’ e-commerce needs with marketing, supply chain and technical solutions in a single platform. For more information, please visit Newegg.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating. We believe Newegg has a platform that is positioned to benefit from a fast-growing e-commerce vertical, namely, electronics. The company’s platforms serve both B2B and B2C customers on an international scale, reaching more than 20 countries. Moreover, the company has additional growth opportunities through expansion into other e-commerce verticals.

Growing e-commerce market. The global retail e-commerce market is expected to grow at 13.5% CAGR from 2019-2026. Notably, the North American technology e-commerce market, Newegg’s area of focus, is expected to grow even faster, at 25% CAGR over the same period.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Growth from a Position of Strength


Monday, February 06, 2023

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating estimates. While our 2023 earnings per unit estimate is unchanged at $5.90, we have made several adjustments in our model resulting in a modest reduction in EBITDA to $1.14 billion from $1.18 billion. Operating, depreciation, depletion and amortization, and general and administration expenses were increased, while net interest expense and income tax expense were lowered. Estimates for certain line items are now more aligned with management guidance.

Attractive total return potential. In our view, the stock price did not respond in line with the partnership’s outstanding fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results, along with the 40% increase in its quarterly cash distribution per unit to $0.70 or $2.80 on an annualized basis. The indicated distribution rate represents a 12.6% yield based on the recent closing price and an 8.75% yield based on our price target of $32 per unit implying total return potential of greater than 50%.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Baudax Bio (BXRX) – Baudax Bio Announces Positive Interim Analysis Of BX1000 Phase II Trial


Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Baudax Bio is a pharmaceutical company focused on innovative products for acute care settings. ANJESO is the first and only 24-hour, intravenous (IV) COX-2 preferential non-steroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAID) for the management of moderate to severe pain. In addition to ANJESO, Baudax Bio has a pipeline of other innovative pharmaceutical assets including two novel neuromuscular blocking agents (NMBs) and a proprietary chemical reversal agent specific to these NMBs. For more information, please visit www.baudaxbio.com.

Gregory Aurand, Senior Research Analyst, Healthcare Services & Medical Devices, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Phase II Trial For Patients Undergoing Elective Surgery.  The BX1000 neuromuscular blocker is an intermediate-duration agent (~45 minutes) enrolling 80 patients in a Phase II trial. The randomized, double-blind, active-controlled IV-administered clinical trial compares three different doses of BX1000 (0.15 mg/kg IV, 0.25 mg/kg IV, 0.35 mg/kg IV) to a standard dose (0.6 mg/kg IV) of rocuronium, a standard of care blocking agent. (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05687253)

Primary Endpoints And Secondary Endpoints.  The primary endpoints assess the time frame needed to reach intubation conditions (time frame is within 2 minutes of administration) and also assess, using a standardized scale (Poor, Good, Excellent), the proportion of patients meeting Good or Excellent conditions. Secondary endpoints assess the safety and tolerability profile of BX1000.


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Harte Hanks (HHS) – Trends Appear Favorable


Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Harte Hanks (NASDAQ: HHS) is a leading global customer experience company whose mission is to partner with clients to provide them with CX strategy, data-driven analytics and actionable insights combined with seamless program execution to better understand, attract, and engage their customers. Using its unparalleled resources and award-winning talent in the areas of Customer Care, Fulfillment and Logistics, and Marketing Services, Harte Hanks has a proven track record of driving results for some of the world’s premier brands including Bank of America, GlaxoSmithKline, Unilever, Pfizer, HBOMax, Volvo, Ford, FedEx, Midea, Sony, and IBM among others. Headquartered in Chelmsford, Massachusetts , Harte Hanks has over 2,500 employees in offices across the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific .

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q4 Preview. Fundamentals at the company appear favorable and Q4 revenue and adj. EBITDA estimates appear to be on target. We are adjusting our EPS estimate to reflect the repurchase of its convertible preferred shares with Wipro. The agreement was for liquidation value at $9.9 million, plus 100,000 HHS shares. Due to an accounting treatment, the company is expected to report a non cash $1.6 million loss on the repurchase. We are adjusting our Q4 EPS from $0.34 to $0.12 to reflect this charge. 

Q1 Outlook. The company’s first quarter revenue mix is expected to skew toward lower margin revenue business, plus the company is expected to spend more heavily on technology investments and for the integration of a recent acquisition, InsideOut. Q1 revenues are expected to increase year over year, but Adj. EBITDA is expected to be lower. 


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