Digital, Media & Technology Industry Report: Buckle Your Seat Belts

Monday, April 24, 2022

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures

Overview: Key takeaways from the NAB. Media investors are unpacking the information from the National Association of Broadcaster’s (NAB) convention. While there are promising new technologies that are sure to create shiny new objects to catch investor’s attention, particularly AI, the chatter is about the current advertising environment. Looking for the key takeaways? Sign up here for the virtual conference on April 27th. 

Digital Media & Technology: Head fake? Every one of Noble’s Internet and Digital Media Indices not only finished the quarter up, but significantly outperformed the S&P 500.  The best performing index was Noble’s Social Media Index, which increased by 70% in the first quarter of 2023, followed by Noble’s Ad Tech Index (+31%), MarTech Index (+30%), and Digital Media Index (+18%). 

Television Broadcasting: Weak current revenue trends. While auto advertising appears to be faring better, the weight of the economic challenges appear to be causing further moderation in advertising. Will auto and, potentially Political, carry the second half 2023 revenue performance?

Radio Broadcasting: All out of love. The industry is reeling from a Wall Street research downgrade to an underperform on iHeart Media, which sent all radio stocks tumbling. Some stocks performed better than others. What’s behind the downgrade and which stocks performed better? 

Publishing:Advertising takes a hit. After a period of moderating revenue trends, Publishers reported a weakened advertising environment. The downturn was due to Print advertising which took a nose dive. As a result, publishing companies implemented another round of expense cuts to bolster cash flow. There is a bright spot as Digital continues to perform strongly. 

Overview

The NAB Show Stopper

Media investors are unpacking all of the information from last week’s National Association of Broadcaster’s (NAB) convention. There is a lot to digest given that there were over 1,400 exhibits, 140 new exhibitors this year. Because of the overwhelming number of exhibitors, many that go to Vegas for this annual convention do not go to the convention floor. It is a shame. There was a lot to see and learn. As Noble’s Media & Entertainment Analyst I walked the convention floor, which covers 4.6 million square feet of exhibit halls and meeting rooms. I stopped by booths and taped presentations to explain the new technologies, the plan for implementation of new services, and the prospect for revenue monetization. One important demonstration focused on the new broadcast standard, ATSC 3.0, the hope for a bright future for the television industry. This new standard should allow the industry to become more contemporary in terms of how its audience consumes video and information. In addition, it offers the ability for the industry to participate in new revenue streams, including Datacasting, which may become bigger than Retransmission revenue in the future. 

In addition to touring the floor, I attended NAB panel discussions and hosted meetings with media management teams in a fireside chat format to discuss current business trends, the new technologies (including Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the new broadcast standard). In addition, these C-suite management teams provided their key takeaways from the NAB convention and offered why they participated in the conference this year. These discussions are available to you for free on Channelchek.com on April 27th in a virtual conference. In this upcoming Channelchek Takeaway Series on the NAB Show, I offer my key takeaways, including the current advertising outlook, my take on the monetization of the new technologies and what media investors should do now given the current economic and advertising environment. Your free registration to this informative event is available here

This report highlights the performance of the media sectors over the past 12 months and past quarter. Overall, media stocks struggled in the past year, but there has been some improved quarterly performance, particularly in Digital Media and Broadcast Television, discussed later. All media stocks are struggling to offset losses over the course of the past year with trailing 12 months stocks down in the range of 5% on the low end to down 68% on the high end. The best performing sector in the past 12 months were Social Media stocks, down 5% versus the general market decline of 9% over the comparable period.

In the first quarter, stock performance was mixed. The best performers in the traditional media sectors were Broadcast Television stocks, up nearly 10% versus the general market which increased 7% in the comparable period. But, the individual TV stock performance reflected a different story, explained later in this report. The worse performer for the quarter were the radio stocks, driven by a Wall Street downgrade of one of the leading radio broadcasters. The Digital Media stocks had another good performance. We believe that stock performance will be a roller coaster for at least another quarter or two as the weight of the Fed rate increases begin to adversely affect the economy.

While National advertising has remained weak, we believe that Local advertising is now beginning to moderate as well. The Local advertising weakness appears to be in the smaller markets as well as the larger markets. This is somewhat different than the most recent economic cycles whereby the smaller markets were somewhat resilient. It seems that the smaller markets are feeling the adverse affects from inflation, rising employment costs and tightening bank credit. In our view, the disappointing advertising outlook likely will cause second quarter revenue estimates to come down, creating a difficult environment for media stocks. As such, we encourage investors to be opportunistic and take an accumulation approach to building positions for the prospective economic and advertising improvement. Our favorites have digital media exposure, given that we expect Digital Advertising (while softening as well) will be more resilient than traditional advertising mediums. Our favorites include Travelzoo (TZOO), Townsquare Media (TSQ), Harte Hanks (HHS), E.W. Scripps (SSP), and Direct Digital (DRCT)

Digital Media

Head fake?

Last quarter we wrote that the S&P 500 increased for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2021 and that we were beginning to see signs of life in Noble’s Internet and Digital Media Indices as well.  Those signs of life continued to bear fruit throughout the first quarter, as every one of Noble’s Internet and Digital Media Indices not only finished the quarter up, but significantly outperformed the S&P 500. Figure #1 LTM Digital Media Performance highlights that many of the Digital Media sectors are now approaching year earlier levels given the most recent favorable performance. The best performing index was Noble’s Social Media Index, which increased by 70% in the first quarter of 2023, followed by Noble’s Ad Tech Index (+31%), MarTech Index (+30%), and  Digital Media Index (+18%). 

Figure #1 LTM Digital Media Performance

Source: Capital IQ 

Noble’s Indices are market cap weighted, and we attribute the strength of the Social Media Index to its largest constituent, Meta Platforms (META; a.k.a. Facebook) whose shares increased by 76% in the first quarter. Figure #2 Q1 Digital Media Performancehighlights the first quarter performance for the digital stocks.Meta’s management stirred interest in the shares from its 4Q 2022 earnings call when they spent most of their time talking about “efficiency”, which investors interpreted to mean that Meta was newly focused on profitability.  After a relatively disastrous 3Q 2022 earnings call, after which shares fell by 25%, the company demonstrated on its 4Q 2022 earnings call that it clearly had gotten the message:  investors were not enamored about the company’s plans in October 2022 to spend billions of dollars to develop its Metaverse initiatives. Rather, on its fourth quarter call, management focused on driving its short form video initiative, Reels (i.e., becoming more TikTok like), reducing its headcount by reducing layers of management, lowering its operating expenses and reducing its capital expenditures. Investors applauded this newfound focus on profitability and shares rebounded from a low of $88.90 per share in early November to $211.94 at the March quarter-end.   

The next best performing index was Noble’s Ad Tech Index which increased by 31% during 1Q 2023.  Fourteen of the 23 stocks in the index were up in the first quarter. Standouts during the quarter were Integral Ad Science (IAS; +62%) and Perion Networks (PERI; +56%).  Integral Ad Science exceeded expectations in its fourth quarter results and guided to better-than-expected results in 1Q 2023.  The company continues to expand its product suite, scale its social media offerings (i.e., for TikTok) and is well positioned to continue to benefit from the shift from linear TV to connected TV (CTV).  Perion shares continued their winning:  Perion was the only ad tech stock whose shares were up in 2022.  Perion’s 56% increase in 1Q 2023 reflected beat on both revenues (by 2%) and EBITDA (by 10%) as well as improved guidance for 1Q 2023.  Perion’s profitability increased significantly in 2022, with EBITDA nearly doubling (+90%) from 2021 ($70M) to 2022 ($132M).

Noble’s MarTech Index increased by 30% with 14 of the 22 stocks in the index posting increases in 1Q 2023.  The best performing stocks were Qualtrics (XM; +70%) Sprinklr (CXM; +59%), Salesforce (CRM; +51%), Hubspot (HUBS; +48%) and Yext (YEXT; +47%). Qualtrics agreed to be acquired for $12.5 billion by Silver Lake and the Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board, which came at a 73% premium to its 30-day volume weighted stock price. Sprinklr beat revenue expectations and significantly beat EBITDA expectations (doubling the Street expectations) and guided to a current year forecast that focuses more on efficiency and profitability.

MarTech stocks have been victims of their own success. Two years ago at this time the sector was trading at 11.3x forward revenue estimates, and a year ago the group was trading at 6.5x forward revenues. Today the group trades at 4x forward revenues and investors appear to be wading back into the sector. Figure #3 Marketing Tech Comparables highlights the compelling stock valuations.One of the laggards in the sector has been Harte Hanks (HHS), which declined 20% in the first quarter. We believe that the shares have not gained traction following the successful rebound toward profitability in 2022. The shares advanced a powerful 136% in 2022 from lows in May to highs achieved in August 2022. Since that time, investors appear to be taking chips off the table. In our view, the HHS shares appear to be oversold. Its business appears to be resilient. Given the recent weakness in the shares, the shares appear to be undervalued and offer a favorable risk reward relationship. As such, the HHS shares are among our favorites in the sector.  

Another one of our current favorites is Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT). As Figure #4 Advertising Tech Comparables illustrates, the DRCT shares trade in line with the averages for the group at roughly 5.4 times 2024 adj. EBITDA. Notably, the company recently restated upward its 2022 full year revenue and adj. EBITDA results. Given the favorable operating momentum, we raised our full year 2023 and 2024 revenue and adj. EBITDA estimates, keeping our previous growth estimates. With the higher 2024 adj. EBITDA, we tweaked upward our price target from $5.50 to $6.00. Given a favorable fundamental outlook and compelling stock valuation, we view the shares as among our favorites.  

Finally, Noble’s Digital Media Index, while lagging that of its digital peers at an 18% increase, significantly outperformed the S&P 500 (+7%), with a broad based recovery in which 9 of the sector’s 11 stocks increased during 1Q 2023.  The best performing stock was Spotify (SPOT; +69%), whose revenues fell short of expectations by less than 1%, significantly beat consensus Street EBITDA expectations by $58M and more importantly pivoted towards demonstrating operating leverage.  Spotify, which posted an EBITDA loss of nearly $500 billion in 2022, is expected to generate $650 billion in EBITDA in 2024, according to Street estimates. A deteriorating ad market in 2022 combined with higher interest rates likely prompted the company to shift its priorities to running a profitable company and doing it more quickly and with some urgency.  The second best performing stock was Travelzoo (TZOO; +36%), as the company’s 4Q 2022 revenues and EBITDA increased by 31% and 328%, respectively.  Notably, Travelzoo’s EBITDA came in 58% higher than Street consensus. The company appears to be benefiting from pent up travel demand for travel and management highlighted the opportunity for margin expansion in the coming quarters. Given the favorable outlook, we raised our price target to $10. Near current levels, the TZOO shares appear to offer above average returns and we reiterate our Outperform rating.    

Figure #2 Q1 Digital Media Performance 

Source: Capital IQ

Figure #3 Marketing Tech Comparables 

Source: Eikon, Company filings & Noble estimates

Figure #4 Advertising Tech Comparables

Source: Eikon, Company filings & Noble estimates 

Traditional Media 

As Figure #5 LTM Traditional Media Performance illustrates, these stocks have struggled to gain sea legs, trending lower over the course of the past year. All traditional media sectors have underperformed over the past year, with Radio the poorest performing group. As Figure #6 Q1 Traditional Media Performance illustrates, only the TV Broadcast stocks edged out the general market performance in the latest quarter. 

Figure #5 LTM Traditional Media Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Figure #6 Q1 Traditional Media Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Television Broadcast 

Weak current revenue trends 

As illustrated in the previous chart, the TV stocks outperformed the general market in the first quarter. This market cap weighted index masked the performance of many poor performing stocks in the quarter.  Sinclair Broadcasting (SBGI; up 10%), Entravision (EVC; up a strong 26%), and Fox (FOX; up 12%) were among the best performing stocks and favorably influenced the TV index in the quarter. But, there were many poor performing stocks including E.W. Scripps (SSP; down 29%), Gray Television (GTN; down 22%) and Tegna (TGNA; down 20%). We believe that there was heightened interest in Entravision given its favorable Q1 results which was fueled by its fast growing Digital business. Figure #7 TV Q4 YoY Revenue Growth illustrates the Entravision’s Q4 revenue performance was among the best in the industry. While Entravision was among the best revenue performers, its margins are below that of its peer group as illustrated in Figure #8 TV Q4 EBITDA Margins. This is due to the accounting treatment of its Digital revenues given that it is an agency business. Given that Digital represents roughly 80% of the company’s total company revenue, we plan to put the EVC shares into the Digital Media sector to more accurately reflect its business. The poorer performing stocks are among the higher debt levered in the industry. As such, we believe the underperformance reflects concern of a slowing economy and investors flight to quality in the sector. 

We do not believe that we are out of the woods with the TV stocks and the market is expected to be volatile. The advertising environment appears to be deteriorating given weakening economic conditions. There are bright spots which include some improvement in the Auto category. Dealerships appear to be stepping up advertising given higher inventory levels. In addition, broadcasters appear optimistic about Political advertising, which could begin in the third quarter 2023. There is a planned Republican presidential candidate debate scheduled in August. As such, there is some promise that candidates will advertise in advance of that debate and into the fourth quarter given the early primary season. We do not believe that Political and Auto will be enough to offset the weakness in National and in the weakening Local category. In our view, Q2 and full year 2023 estimates are likely to come down. Furthermore, we believe that broadcasters will be shy about predicting Political advertising even into 2024 given the past disappointments in management forecasts in the last Political cycle. 

We encourage investors to take an accumulation approach to the sector. Notably, as Figure #9 TV Comparables highlights, nearly all of the stocks are trading near each other, with the exception of the larger media stocks. In our view, the valuations are near recession type valuations and appear to have limited downside risk. Our current favorite is E.W. Scripps (SSP). While the company is not immune to the current weak advertising environment, we believe that there is a favorable Retransmission revenue opportunity as 75% of its subscribers are due in the next 12 months. In addition, we believe that Retransmission margins will improve. Given the relatively small float for the shares, the SSP shares tend to underperform when the industry is out of favor, but then outperform when the industry is back in favor. In our view, the SSP shares offer a favorable risk/reward relationship and top our favorites in the sector. 

Figure #7 TV Q4 YoY Revenue Growth

Source: Eikon & Company filings

Figure #8 TV Q4 EBITDA Margins

Source: Eikon & Company filings

Figure #9 TV Comparables 

Source: Noble Estimates & Eikon

Radio Broadcasting

All out of love

The Radio stocks had another tough quarter, down 17% versus a 7% gain for the general market. Notably, there was a wide variance in the individual stock performance, with the largest stocks in the group having the worst performance in the quarter, including Audacy (AUD; down 40%), Cumulus Media (CMLS; down 41%) and iHeart Media (IHRT; down 36%). The first quarter stock performance did not appear to reflect the fourth quarter results. As Figure #10 Radio Industry Q4 YoY Revenue Growth illustrates, revenues were relatively okay, with some exceptions. Some of the larger Radio companies which have a large percentage of National advertising, underperformed relative to the more diversified Radio companies, especially those with a strong Digital segment presence. Figure #11 Radio Industry Q4 YoY EBITDA Margins illustrate that the margins for the industry remain relatively healthy. 

The weakness in the Radio stocks was fueled in the quarter from a downgrade to under perform on the shares of iHeart by a Wall Street firm. Many radio stocks were down in sympathy. The analyst attributed the downgrade to the current macro environment and its heavy floating rate debt burden. The company is not expected to generate enough free cash flow to de-lever its balance sheet. We believe the downgrade as well as the excessive debt profile of Audacy, another industry leader which likely will need to restructure, sent all radio stocks tumbling. Some stocks performed better than others. While Cumulus Media’s debt profile is not as levered as iHeart or Audacy, the shares were caught in the net of a weak advertising outlook. Cumulus is among the most sensitive to National advertising, which currently continues to be weak. 

Some of our favorite stocks which are diversified and have developing digital businesses performed better. Those stocks included Townsquare Media (TSQ; up 10%), and Salem Media (SALM; up 4%). Notably, while the shares of Beasley Broadcasting (BBGI) were down 10%, the shares performed better than the 17% decline for the industry in the quarter. Importantly, Beasley recently provided favorable updated Q1 guidance for the first quarter. Q1 revenues are expected to increase 1% to 2.5% and EBITDA growth is expected to be in the range of 40% to 50%, significantly better than our estimates. Furthermore, management provided a sanguine outlook for 2023 and 2024. Digital revenue is expected to reach 20% to 30% of total revenue with a goal of reaching 40% in 2024. By comparison, Digital revenue was 17% of total revenue in the fourth quarter 2022. Furthermore, the company is sitting on roughly $35 million in cash. It has opportunistically repurchased $10 million of its bonds at a significant discount. We believe that it is likely to maintain a strong cash position given the economic uncertainty. 

We view Townsquare Media (TSQ), Salem Media (SALM) and Beasley Broadcast (BBGI) as among our favorites in the industry given the diverse revenue streams. While these companies are not immune to the economic headwinds, we believe that its Digital businesses should offer some ballast to its more sensitive Radio business. In the case of Salem, 30% of its revenues are relatively stable with block programming. As Figure #12 Broadcast Radio Comparables illustrates, the shares of Townsquare are among the cheapest in the industry, trading below peer group averages. Notably, the company instituted a hefty dividend. As a result, investors get paid while we await a favorable upturn in fundamentals. As such, the shares of TSQ tops our list of favorites. 

Figure #10 Radio Industry Q4 YoY Revenue Growth

Source: Eikon & Company filings

Figure #11 Radio Industry Q4 YoY EBITDA Margins

Source: Eikon & Company filings

Figure #12 Broadcast Radio Comparables 

Source: Noble estimates & Eikon

Publishing 

Advertising takes a hit  

After a period of moderating revenue trends, Publishers reported a weakened advertising environment. As illustrated in Figure #13 Publishing Industry YOY Revenue Growth, illustrates that revenue trends deteriorated with Print advertising taking a nose dive. This trend was illustrative in the results from Lee Enterprises, one of our current favorites in the sector. After a fiscal fourth quarter flat revenue performance, the company reported a 8.5% decline in its fiscal first quarter. The Q1 revenue performance reflected an 18.5% decrease in Print advertising, an acceleration in the rate of the 11% decline in the previous quarter. 

The surprisingly weak quarter hit the company’s adj. EBITDA margins. Traditionally, Lee maintained some of the best margins in the industry. As Figure #14 Q4 Publishing Industry EBITDA Margins illustrates, the company fell in ranking to among the lowest in the sector. Importantly, in spite of the revenue weakness, the company maintains its previous adj. EBITDA guidance of $94 million to $100 million. To achieve its cash flow target in light of the soft revenue outlook, Lee implemented a round of expense cuts to bolster cash flow. Cost reductions are expected to result in $40 million of savings in FY23, and $60 million in annualized savings going forward. While we are disappointed that the company’s Print business is not moderating as previously expected, the company’s Digital businesses remain favorably robust. In addition, its Digital business is turning toward contributing margins. As such, we remain sanguine about the company’s digital transition. 

As Figure #15 Publishing Comparables highlights, there is a wide gap between the valuation of the New York Times (NYT) and the rest of the industry, including Lee. While the highly debt levered shares of Gannett appear cheaper, we believe that Lee has a more favorable debt profile with a fixed 9% annual rate, no fixed principal payments, no performance covenants and a 25 year maturity. With the shares trading at 5.3 times our 2024 adj. EBITDA estimate compared with 15.4 times at the New York Times, we believe that there is limited downside risk in the LEE shares. Furthermore, we believe that the company is well positioned as economic and advertising prospects improve. Given the company’s favorable outlook for its Digital transition, we believe that the shares should close the gap in valuations with the leadership stock in the group. Consequently, the shares of LEE are among our favorite play for an improving economic outlook. 

Figure #13 Publishing Industry YoY Revenue Growth 

Source: Eikon & Company filings

Figure #14 Q4 Publishing Industry EBITDA Margins

Source: Eikon & Company filings

Figure #15 Publishing Comparables 

Source: Noble estimates & Eikon

For more information on companies mentioned in this report click on the following:

Beasley Broadcast

Cumulus Media

Direct Digital

Entravision

E.W. Scripps

Harte Hanks

Lee Enterprises

Salem Media Group

Townsquare Media

Travelzoo

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All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “we”, “us”, or “our” are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc.(“Noble”) and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.

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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE

Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87

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This report is intended to provide general securities advice, and does not purport to make any recommendation that any securities transaction is appropriate for any recipient particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decision, recipients should assess, or seek advice from their advisors, on whether any relevant part of this report is appropriate to their individual circumstances. If a recipient was referred to Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by an investment advisor, that advisor may receive a benefit in respect of
transactions effected on the recipients behalf, details of which will be available on request in regard to a transaction that involves a personalized securities recommendation. Additional risks associated with the security mentioned in this report that might impede achievement of the target can be found in its initial report issued by Noble Capital Markets, Inc.. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose unless authorized by Noble Capital Markets, Inc..

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Labrador Gold Corp. (NKOSF) – Growing in Size and Mineral Potential


Friday, April 21, 2023

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Natural Resources Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Big Vein strike length extended to 722 meters. Labrador Gold released results from five drill holes at the Big Vein target within the company’s 100%-owned Kingsway project. Step out drilling to the northeast and southwest continue to intersect gold mineralization at Big Vein which has now been extended to 722 meters in strike length and remains open in both directions. Hole K-23-216 intersected 3.69 grams of gold per tonne over 2.97 meters from 389.41 meters including 12.05 grams of gold per tonne over 0.59 meters, while Hole K-23-218 returned 1.95 grams of gold per tonne over 9 meters including 8.97 grams of gold per tonne over 1.6 meters. Hole K-23-225, a 100-meter step-out to the northeast intersected 1 gram of gold per tonne over 10.1 meters from 46.9 meters, that included an interval of 2.28 grams of gold per tonne over 2.26 meters containing visible gold.

Discovery of a new mineralized zone. Hole K-22-214B returned 5.22 grams of gold per tonne over 2.80 meters from 418.6 meters that included 22.02 grams of gold per tonne over 0.4 meters, along with 8.62 grams of gold per tonne over 0.7 meters from 496 meters. Both it and Hole K-22-214 are associated with a new mineralized zone, the Greenmantle Zone, that lies below the HTC Zone at a vertical depth of 415 meters. The discovery of the Greenmantle zone demonstrates the potential for continued mineralization at depth.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Hemisphere Energy Corporation (HMENF) – Hemisphere completed year full of growth


Friday, April 21, 2023

Michael Heim, Senior Energy & Transportation Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results demonstrate strong production growth and a sharp increase in cash flow and earnings. Production rates (preannounced) increased 55%. Increased production was partially offset by a drop in energy prices. Lower-than-expected prices were partially offset by a decrease in royalty rates. Production costs (excluding transportation costs) remain somewhat elevated as they were in the September quarter. We look for production costs per barrel to decrease modestly as new production comes on line in 2023.

As netbacks rose, so did the company’s Adjusted Fund Flow (AFF). The margin between prices and costs is high. Operating netbacks (realized prices less royalties and operating costs) is leading to strong cash flow which management is turning their focus toward returning to shareholders now that debt is virtually eliminated and drilling programs have been accelerated.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Release – Noble Capital Markets Initiates Equity Research Coverage on Snail, Inc.

Research News and Market Data on SNAL

CULVER CITY, Calif., April 13, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Snail, Inc. (Nasdaq: SNAL) (“Snail” or “the Company”), a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment, is pleased to announce that that Noble Capital Markets has initiated company-sponsored equity research coverage on the Company. The full report by Noble Capital Markets Senior Research Analyst Michael Kupinski, as well as news and advanced market data on Snail, Inc. is available on Channelchek.

About Snail, Inc.

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

About Noble Capital Markets

Noble Capital Markets, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 as a full-service SEC / FINRA registered broker-dealer, dedicated exclusively to serving underfollowed small / microcap companies through investment banking, wealth management, trading & execution, and equity research activities. Over the past 37 years, Noble has raised billions of dollars for these companies and published more than 45,000 equity research reports. www.noblecapitalmarkets.com email: contact@noblecapitalmarkets.com

About Channelchek

Channelchek (.com) is a comprehensive investor-centric portal – featuring more than 6,000 emerging growth companies – that provides advanced market data, independent research, balanced news, video webcasts, exclusive c-suite interviews, and access to virtual road shows. The site is available to the public at every level without cost or obligation. Research on Channelchek is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., an SEC / FINRA registered broker-dealer since 1984. www.channelchek.com email: contact@channelchek.com

Contacts:
Investors:
investors@snail.com

Release – Ocugen Announces Positive Preliminary Safety and Efficacy Results from the Phase 1/2 Trial of OCU400, a Modifier Gene Therapy Product Candidate, for the Treatment of Retinitis Pigmentosa and Leber Congenital Amaurosis

Research News and Market Data on OCGN

  • Favorable safety and tolerability profile related to OCU400 investigational product candidate
  • Initial clinical data from low and medium dose cohorts indicates positive trend in Multi-luminance mobility testing and Best-Corrected Visual Acuity scores for OCU400 treated eyes
  • 71.4% (5/7) of OCU400 treated eyes in low and medium dose cohorts experienced at least 1 Lux luminance level improvement in mobility test from baseline
  • 66.7% (2/3) of OCU400 treated eyes in low dose cohorts at 9-month follow-up experienced at least 2 Lux luminance level improvement in mobility test from baseline
  • Ocugen believes these preliminary data supports potential of modifier gene therapy platform in gene-agnostic treatment of complex and heterogenous inherited genetic diseases

MALVERN, Pa., April 14, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) —  Ocugen, Inc. (Ocugen or the Company) (NASDAQ: OCGN), a biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel gene and cell therapies, biologics, and vaccines, today announced positive preliminary data among retinitis pigmentosa (RP) participants treated in the first two cohorts of the Phase 1/2 trial to assess the safety and efficacy of OCU400 for RP associated with NR2E3 and Rhodopsin (RHO) mutations and Leber Congenital Amaurosis (LCA) with mutation(s) in the CEP290 gene. These preliminary results provide support that OCU400, Ocugen’s first-in-class therapeutic approach utilizing a proprietary modifier gene therapy platform, has the potential to be a gene-agnostic therapeutic for RP and LCA patients with inherited retinal degeneration.

“It is very gratifying to see these positive preliminary results from our novel modifier gene therapy approach,” said Dr. Shankar Musunuri, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and Co-Founder of Ocugen. “This is the first clinical validation of the platform where patient responses across various genetic mutations support that OCU400 has the potential to transform the lives of many patients who are struggling with debilitating blindness diseases.”

This Phase 1/2 trial is a multicenter, open-label, dose ranging study. A total of 18 RP subjects have been enrolled in this study—10 subjects in the dose escalation and 8 subjects in the expansion phase, respectively. The age of subjects enrolled to date ranges from 18-77 years across RHO and NR2E3 gene mutations. We further expanded this Phase1/2 trial to enroll LCA patients with CEP290 gene mutation and pediatric patients with NR2E3RHO and CEP290 mutations.

In Cohort 1 and 2 of the clinical trial, 7 participants with severe vision impairment due to RP associated with RHO and NR2E3 gene mutations received a unilateral subretinal injection of either a low dose (1.66 x 1010 vg/mL) or medium dose (3.33 x 1010 vg/mL) OCU400, respectively. In the preliminary data analysis, 9-month follow-up data for 3 subjects [Cohort 1], and 6-month follow-up data for 4 subjects [N=1 from Cohort 1 and N=3 from Cohort 2] were evaluated.

Results showed a favorable safety profile and visual improvements after treatment with OCU400 as measured by multi-luminance mobility testing (MLMT) and best corrected visual acuity assessment (BCVA).

Key efficacy outcomes from 7 subjects demonstrated:

  • 100% of treated eyes showed a stable or improved MLMT score trend;
  • 5 of 7 (71.4%) OCU400 treated eyes demonstrated a 1 or more Lux level improvement in MLMT score compared to 28.6 % of untreated eyes;
  • 66.7% (2 of 3) of OCU400 treated eyes in Cohort 1 with 9-month follow-up demonstrated a 2 or more Lux level improvement in MLMT score compared to none of the untreated eyes; and
  • 3 of 7 (42.9%) OCU400 treated eyes demonstrated 8-11 letters of improvement in BCVA score compared to none of the untreated eyes.

“I was not expecting such substantial improvements in visual function among the trial participants I have been working with because of the advanced stage of their retinal disease,” said David Birch, PhD, Scientific Director, Retina Foundation of the Southwest, principal investigator of the study. “I am very pleased by the outcomes I have seen in my own clinic and am hopeful that OCU400 could provide a therapeutic solution for RP patients who are not only facing loss of vision, but also challenged with the psychological burden of losing their independence.”

“The early results from patients treated in the Phase 1/2 clinical trial are encouraging and support the paradigm-changing potential of modifier gene therapy technology to address unmet medical needs for patients with RP and LCA,” said Arun Upadhyay, PhD, Chief Scientific Officer and Head of Research, Development and Medical at Ocugen. “With this favorable safety profile and positive trend in efficacy signals, we are very eager to see longer-term data, and to potentially initiate Phase 3 trials in the U.S. and EU.”

Ocugen will continue to monitor long-term safety and efficacy data from the treated patients, and advance development of OCU400 to bring a potential treatment option to RP and LCA patients.

CanSinoBIO, Ocugen’s strategic partner, provided all CMC development and clinical supplies for the Phase 1/2 trial of OCU400.

A webcast and conference call will take place today at 8 a.m. ET:
Dial-in Numbers: (800) 715-9871 for U.S. callers and (646) 307-1963 for international callers
Conference ID: 4898155
Webcast: Available on the events section of the Ocugen investor site

About Modifier Gene Therapy
Modifier gene therapy is designed to fulfill unmet medical needs related to retinal diseases, including IRDs, such as RP, LCA, and Stargardt disease, as well as dry AMD. Our modifier gene therapy platform is based on the use of NHRs, master gene regulators, which have the potential to restore homeostasis — the basic biological processes in the retina. Unlike single-gene replacement therapies, which only target one genetic mutation, we believe that our modifier gene therapy platform, through its use of NHRs, represents a novel approach that has the potential to address multiple retinal diseases caused by mutations in multiple genes with one product, and to address complex diseases that are potentially caused by imbalances in multiple gene networks. Currently Ocugen has three modifier gene therapy programs OCU400 (RP, LCA), OCU410 (dry AMD), OCU410ST (Stargardt disease).

About OCU400
OCU400 is the Company’s gene-agnostic modifier gene therapy product based on NHR gene, NR2E3NR2E3 regulates diverse physiological functions within the retina—such as photoreceptor development and maintenance, metabolism, phototransduction, inflammation and cell survival networks. Through its drive functionality, OCU400 resets altered/affected cellular gene-networks and establishes homeostasis—a state of balance, which has potential to improve retinal health and function in patients with inherited retinal diseases.

About Ocugen, Inc.
Ocugen, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel gene and cell therapies, biologics, and vaccines that improve health and offer hope for patients across the globe. We are making an impact on patients’ lives through courageous innovation—forging new scientific paths that harness our unique intellectual and human capital. Our breakthrough modifier gene therapy platform has the potential to treat multiple retinal diseases with a single product, and we are advancing research in infectious diseases to support public health and orthopedic diseases to address unmet medical needs. Discover more at www.ocugen.com and follow us on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, statements regarding the development of OCU400 and the interpretation of preliminary clinical trial results. We may, in some cases, use terms such as “predicts,” “believes,” “potential,” “proposed,” “continue,” “estimates,” “anticipates,” “expects,” “plans,” “intends,” “may,” “could,” “might,” “will,” “should,” or other words that convey uncertainty of future events or outcomes to identify these forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to numerous important factors, risks, and uncertainties that may cause actual events or results to differ materially from our current expectations, including, but not limited to, the risk that preliminary clinical data may not be indicative of final clinical data or data in later stage clinical trials. These and other risks and uncertainties are more fully described in our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including the risk factors described in the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the quarterly and annual reports that we file with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements that we make in this press release speak only as of the date of this press release. Except as required by law, we assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements contained in this press release whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, after the date of this press release.Contact:
Tiffany Hamilton
Head of Communications
IR@ocugen.com

Release – Aurania Announces Proposed 2023 Exploration Activities

Research News and Market Data on AUIAF

Toronto, Ontario, April 13, 2023 – Aurania Resources Ltd. (TSXV: ARU; OTCQB: AUIAF; Frankfurt: 20Q) (“Aurania” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce its proposed 2023 exploration activities.

As the concessions for its mineral properties in Ecuador are fully renewed and in good standing for another year after payment of all concession fees in March, the Company is able to develop the 2023 exploration programs.

Aurania attended the Prospector’s and Developer’s Association of Canada meeting (PDAC) in Toronto the first week of March, and we were delighted by the interest shown by several Major companies in our Ecuador asset.  As a result of follow-up meetings there are now several companies in our data room.  The primary interest has been in our porphyry copper and sediment-hosted copper-silver prospects.

To date, approximately 45% of the Awacha Porphyry Target has been covered by “Anaconda-style Mapping”.  This is an intensive mapping technique that was originally developed by the famous Anaconda Copper Company, and has been taught to the Aurania geological staff by consultant Dr. Steve Garwin.  This target is approximately 11 km x 5 km in size and was discovered by stream sediment sampling which showed elevated copper and molybdenum in the vicinity of two strong airborne magnetic anomalies.  This size is significantly larger than any copper porphyry known and so our working hypothesis is that it is a cluster of porphyries, and similar to the Warintza cluster to the south of our concessions.  Intrusive rock types from gabbro to diorite to monzonite and syenite have been mapped.  Many of these intrusives show secondary biotite (potassic) alteration and fine quartz veins containing molybdenite or a centre line of chalcopyrite.  These so called distinctive “B veins” are classic evidence of mineralized porphyry systems.  An independent explanation of B veins can be found at:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gL0WzJ70z3s

Figure 1: Quartz vein with centre line of chalcopyrite, covellite and pyrite. US cent for scale.

Most of the Awacha area is covered by a unit of black shale which obscures the geology except where streams have cut down through the sediments and exposed the porphyry.  The area is also covered by thick jungle.  Nevertheless, Terraspec Mineral Spectrometer analysis of soils in the southern half of the anomaly indicates chlorite, kaolinite, white micas, dickite and pyrophyllite which are compatible with porphyry-style alteration. The last two minerals are typically found in the upper part of porphyry systems.

Copper soil anomalies are patchy, which is in keeping with soil results seen near outcropping sediment hosted copper elsewhere on the property.  It would seem that copper is easily flushed away from surface soils by the significant rainfall in the area.  Molybdenum however, which is essentially insoluble and immobile presents a much more coherent group of anomalies.  Half of the Awacha target is still to be sampled for soils.

The reinterpretation of the surficial geology and structure in the areas of outcropping sediment-hosted copper-silver and zinc-lead-silver has generated a large number of compelling drill targets (see press release dated October 17, 2022).  This copper-silver-zinc system across the concessions is 38 kilometres in lngth and is open to the north over an additional 15 kilometres. We believe this is perhaps one of the best areas of the property to find an economic ore deposit, considering the numerous high assays already yielded to date. A few areas are highlighted for follow-up, but we concede that a comprehensive programme here is more appropriate for a Major mining company partner.  

The Tatasham epithermal gold/porphyry copper target is compelling due to the presence of what are believed to be pipe breccias.  The area is, however, in steep terrain and the geology is mostly covered by post-mineral sedimentary cover and does not outcrop.  Soil samples along the ridgeline above the previous porphyry drilling campaign yielded anomalous antimony, which is a pathfinder element in gold systems.  An additional soil survey is required at Tatasham to extend the antimony anomaly that is still open to the north.  Intensive mapping and prospecting are required.   The discovery of the epithermal system at Tatasham was unexpected, in our pursuit of a copper porphyry target indicated by geophysics.  That porphyry target is still valid, but it may lie at considerable depth, or it may lie laterally.

Over the next six months it is intended to finish the Anaconda mapping on Awacha, and bring it to drill readiness.  At the same time, Tatasham will be re-examined in the belief that the antimony anomaly in soils may be due to a subcropping mineralized system.  The Fruta del Norte gold deposit was discovered by drilling a geochemical anomaly of antimony, arsenic and mercury which had virtually no gold on surface. Aurania is currently investigating the feasibility of conducting an Induced Polarization (IP) geophysical survey at Tatasham and Awacha.

The proposed exploration programmes are dependent on raising further funding.  The proceeds of the current private placement (as announced on March 13, 2023 and March 23, 2023) to date, have been applied to concession fees and general and administrative expenses.

Qualified Person

The geological information contained in this news release has been verified and approved by Aurania’s VP Exploration, Mr. Jean-Paul Pallier, MSc. Mr. Pallier is a designated EurGeol by the European Federation of Geologists and a Qualified Person as defined by National Instrument 43-101, Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects of the Canadian Securities Administrators.

About Aurania

Aurania is a mineral exploration company engaged in the identification, evaluation, acquisition, and exploration of mineral property interests, with a focus on precious metals and copper in South America. Its flagship asset, The Lost Cities – Cutucu Project, is located in the Jurassic Metallogenic Belt in the eastern foothills of the Andes mountain range of southeastern Ecuador.

Information on Aurania and technical reports are available at www.aurania.com and www.sedar.com, as well as on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/auranialtd/, Twitter at https://twitter.com/auranialtd, and LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/company/aurania-resources-ltd-.

For further information, please contact:

Carolyn Muir

VP Corporate Development & Investor Relations Aurania Resources Ltd.

(416) 367-3200

carolyn.muir@aurania.com

Neither the TSX-V nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSXV) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

Forward-Looking Statements This news release contains forward-looking information as such term is defined in applicable securities laws, which relate to future events or future performance and reflect management’s current expectations and assumptions. The forward-looking information includes Aurania’s objectives, goals or future plans, statements, exploration results, potential mineralization, the corporation’s portfolio, treasury, management team and enhanced capital markets profile, the estimation of mineral resources, exploration, timing of the commencement of operations, the Company’s teams being on track ahead of any drill program, the commencement of any drill program and estimates of market conditions. Such forward-looking statements reflect management’s current beliefs and are based on assumptions made by and information currently available to Aurania, including the assumption that, there will be no material adverse change in metal prices, all necessary consents, licenses, permits and approvals will be obtained, including various local government licenses and the market. Investors are cautioned that these forward-looking statements are neither promises nor guarantees and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause future results to differ materially from those expected. Risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results expressed or implied by the forward-looking information include, among other things, the ability to anticipate and counteract the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the business of the Company, including without limitation the effects of COVID-19 on the capital markets, commodity prices supply chain disruptions, restrictions on labour and workplace attendance and local and international travel; a failure to obtain or delays in obtaining the required regulatory licenses, permits, approvals and consents; an inability to access financing as needed; a general economic downturn, a volatile stock price, labour strikes, political unrest, changes in the mining regulatory regime governing Aurania; a failure to comply with environmental regulations; a weakening of market and industry reliance on precious metals and copper; and. those risks set out in the Company’s public documents filed on SEDAR. Aurania cautions the reader that the above list of risk factors is not exhaustive.  Although the Company believes that the assumptions and factors used in preparing the forward-looking information in this news release are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on such information, which only applies as of the date of this news release, and no assurance can be given that such events will occur in the disclosed time frames or at all. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, other than as required by law.

The NobleCon Investor Conference in December is at FAU. Yes, that FAU!

Pictured: The FAU Owls celebrating their trip to the Final Four | The College of Business, Executive Education at Florida Atlantic University

When Noble Capital Markets (Noble) released the December dates for its 19th Annual Investor Conference to be held at Florida Atlantic University, many had the question, “FAU, who?” Well, that’s all changed, big time. The unlikely trek of the FAU Owls to the NCAA men’s basketball Final Four has just about everyone talking. NBA icon Magic Johnson tweeted “When the 64 teams were announced, nobody could have picked Florida Atlantic to go to the Final Four. I think this has been the most unbelievable NCAA Tournament I’ve ever seen.” Former Miami Heat star Dwayne Wade told ESPN, “No one believed in them… they’re playing with so much toughness, so much focus, so much confidence.” Even their heartbreaking loss to San Diego State, by one point at the buzzer, has not stopped the accolades. And the team remains proud of their accomplishments on and off the court. FAU guard Nick Boyd told reporters, “I’m happy for our team. I mean, we put FAU on the map. That’s most important to me.”

While that map of awareness certainly has been broadened by the Owls Final Four run, FAU is far from unknown, at least in Florida. Since opening its doors in 1964, enrollment has steadily grown, now with more than 30,000 undergraduate and graduate students (and more that 184,000 alumni) across six campuses, with its main campus in the heart of Boca Raton, FL. FAU has nationally ranked programs in business, engineering, computer science, nursing, and online education. It is ranked as a top university by U.S. News and World Report. It’s number one in Florida for ethnic diversity.  FAU is home to the FAU Stiles-Nicholson Brain Institute on the Jupiter campus, a hub of neuroscience activity. And, it has partnered with the world renowned Max Planck Florida Institute for Neuroscience on the FAU High School – Jupiter Campus, the FAU Max Planck Honors Program, the Integrative Biology-Neuroscience program, and the International Max Planck Research School for Synapses & Circuits to offer high school, undergraduate and graduate students transformational experiences not found anywhere else in the world.

The accomplishments of Florida Atlantic are nothing new to Noble. They have worked with the university for more than a decade and were instrumental in the development of the Equity Research Analyst program. Noble has employed several FAU graduates and sponsored enrolled students through intern programs. It was always the goal of Noble to hold its annual investor conference at FAU, but until recently it was logistically impossible. That’s where the College of Business, Executive Education, newly christened, 52,000 square foot complex comes in. It propels NobleCon to the most technically superior conference experience on the circuit. “World Class” is an understatement, particularly when compared to traditional hotel-based conferences. Each presentation room is equipped with multi-screen viewing options, complete soundproofing, full recording, and worldwide webcasting capabilities, even memory foam seating. Add to that the university’s centralized South Florida location is right next to the Boca Raton Airport and less than a mile from Interstate 95. The complex’s 800 (free) covered parking spots complete the picture.

The presentation rooms at the College of Business, Executive Education at Florida Atlantic University

Because of Channelchek’s affiliation with Noble, we’ll be updating guests on all developments leading up to NobleCon19, December 3-5, including keynotes, participating companies, sponsors, and entertainment. Anyone who is registered for Channelchek can attend.  So, while there may be many more questions to be answered about NobleCon, we don’t think that “FAU, who?” will be one of them. The Owls have established a new definition for FAU: Fantastic, Awesome, Unbelievable. Congratulations on your remarkable run!

Energy Industry Report – Why Domestic Producers Cannot Offset OPEC Production Cuts

Tuesday, April 04, 2023

Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures

OPEC cut boosts oil prices and energy stocks, offsetting last quarter’s underperformance in one day. OPEC announced a 1 million bbls./day voluntary production cut causing oil prices to rise 6.3% to a level near $80/bbl. and the XLE Energy Index to rise 4.5% the day after the announcement. 

If domestic producers had the ability to expand production, they would have already. In the past, domestic production has risen in response to higher oil prices. In recent years, however, rig count has not increase as much as one would expect given the rise in oil prices. We believe the low rig count reflects a decrease in the number of economically feasible drilling locations. We would note that producers are generally able to produce oil at a cost of $30-$40/bbl. well below oil prices. If producers had the ability to ramp up drilling, we would have thought they would have done so even at $60/bbl. prices.

Horizontal drilling and fracking have increased production decline curves putting companies on a treadmill just to maintain production. More than half of domestic production comes from wells drilled in the last 24 months.  The implication is that domestic oil producers are hard pressed to drill enough wells to offset production declines, let alone increase overall production to counter production declines by OPEC. As a result, we believe oil prices could remain high for many years.

Small producers and companies with a large drilling portfolio are best positioned. Larger producers continue to be constrained from expanding oil operations given political and shareholder pressures to move away from carbon-based energy. Smaller producers face less pressure. Companies with ample acreage and drilling prospects are best positioned to take advantage of a prolonged oil price upcycle. 

Look for an increased focus on returning capital to shareholders. After several years of high energy prices, many companies have paid down debt and invested in infrastructure. With drilling prospects limited, we believe management will increasing look to raise dividends or repurchase shares.

Energy Stocks

Energy stocks, as measured by the XLE Energy Index, declined 5.3% in the 2023 first quarter. The decline was a sharp contrast to the 7.0% increase in the S&P 500 Index. The decline comes after several years of strong performances for energy stocks and reflects a 5.7% decrease in oil prices and a 50.5% decrease in natural gas prices. Worthy of note, as we are writing this report on April 3rd, oil prices have risen 6.3% and the XLE Energy Index is up 4.5% in response to an announcement by OPEC+ to reduce production by more than 1 million barrels per day. Following the announcement, oil prices settled above $80/bbl. almost reaching the price at the end of 2022.

Figure #1

If the cuts are adhered to, it will represent a significant increase in the excess production capacity of OPEC+. The surplus has grown steadily since the pandemic surpassing 5 million bbls./day according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That surplus had begun to decrease as the pandemic eased and global oil demand returned to normal levels. A reduction in production levels would return surplus capacity to pandemic levels.

Figure #2

With OPEC+ reducing production and oil prices rising, it will be interesting to see if producers in North America will respond by increasing production. In the past, when oil prices rose sharply, producers responded by drilling more wells. The advent of horizontal drilling and fracking over the last 15 years has greatly improved the economics of drilling in the basin by increasing the initial flow rates of oil and gas wells. As the chart below indicates, almost all wells drilled in North America are horizontal wells.

Figure #3

Unfortunately, one of the impacts of increased oil and gas flow is that production will decline at a higher rate after the initial production. That means more and more wells need to be drilled just to offset the drop in production. The chart below, while somewhat dated, shows Permian Basin oil production separated by the year wells came on-line. The chart shows that in 2022, more than half of all oil production came from wells drilled in 2021 or 2022. The implication is that domestic oil producers are hard pressed to drill enough wells to offset production declines, let alone increase overall production to counter production declines by OPEC+.

Figure #4

Source: Novi Labs

Without a rise in domestic production, it is likely that oil prices will remain at elevated levels. This is good news for producers who can produce oil at $30-$40 per barrel. The high netbacks (prices less royalties and operating costs) mean increased profits and cash flow for energy companies. And, if an energy company is fortunate enough to have a large acreage position with an abundance of potential drilling sites, growth rates will accelerate.

Natural Gas Prices

The outlook for natural gas, however, is not as rosy. Natural gas prices fell sharply this winter in response to warm weather and weak economic conditions.

Figure #5

Source: Natural Gas Intelligence

Storage levels, which were running below historical levels, are now at five-year highs for this time of year. With the winter heating season now coming to an end, storage levels are unlikely to reverse. As a result, natural gas prices could remain depressed until the fall heating season.

Figure #6

Outlook

A dismal quarter for the energy sector got a shot in the arm on the first day of the new quarter with a surprise OPEC+ production cut announcement. The announcement was welcomed news for producers that were already seeing profitable production margins and high returns on drilling investments. Cash flow levels are high and companies have been expanding operations and returning capital to shareholders. As investment opportunities become sparse and debt levels become low (or completely eliminated), we believe management will increase the focus on raising dividend levels and repurchasing shares. Share repurchases should support energy stock prices increases and an increased dividend yield should protect against any potential share price weakness.

We believe the case for smaller cap energy stocks is especially strong. Major oil companies are facing increasing pressure to focus on renewable energy instead of producing more carbon-based fuel. Smaller cap energy companies are less tethered and often able to acquire and exploit properties being ignored by the majors. If our belief that a world-wide recession is already factored into energy prices is correct, small cap energy companies will be in the best position to take advantage of any energy price increase resulting from OPEC+ production cuts.


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All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “we”, “us”, or “our” are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc.(“Noble”) and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.

This publication is intended for information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to buy/sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security mentioned in this report, nor shall there be any sale of the security herein in any state or domicile in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or domicile. This publication and all information, comments, statements or opinions contained or expressed herein are applicable only as of the date of this publication and subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Noble accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Noble. This report is not to be relied upon as a substitute for the exercising of independent judgement. Noble may have published, and may in the future publish, other research reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information provided in this report. Noble is under no obligation to bring to the attention of any recipient of this report, any past or future reports. Investors should only consider this report as single factor in making an investment decision.

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Noble is not a market maker in any of the companies mentioned in this report. Noble intends to seek compensation for investment banking services and non-investment banking services (securities and non-securities related) with any or all of the companies mentioned in this report within the next 3 months

ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE

Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87

WARNING

This report is intended to provide general securities advice, and does not purport to make any recommendation that any securities transaction is appropriate for any recipient particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decision, recipients should assess, or seek advice from their advisors, on whether any relevant part of this report is appropriate to their individual circumstances. If a recipient was referred to Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by an investment advisor, that advisor may receive a benefit in respect of
transactions effected on the recipients behalf, details of which will be available on request in regard to a transaction that involves a personalized securities recommendation. Additional risks associated with the security mentioned in this report that might impede achievement of the target can be found in its initial report issued by Noble Capital Markets, Inc.. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose unless authorized by Noble Capital Markets, Inc..

RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.

Receipt of Compensation
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appearance and/or research report.

Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest
Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.

Metals & Mining First Quarter 2023 Review and Outlook

Monday, April 3, 2023

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures

Gold shined during the first quarter. During the first quarter, mining companies (as measured by the XME) appreciated 6.7% compared to a gain of 7.0% for the S&P 500 index. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) and Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) ETFs were up 12.9% and 10.8%, respectively. Gold, silver, and copper futures prices gained 7.8%, 0.5%, and 7.4%, respectively, while lead and zinc declined 3.6% and 4.3%, respectively. Despite continuing rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, turmoil in the banking sector, along with the market’s speculation of its potential impact on Federal Reserve monetary policy, enhanced gold’s appeal. Weakness in base metals, with the exception of copper, may be attributed to slowing economic growth and the potential for an economic downturn. In 2022, the price of copper declined 13.2% and so it was likely due for a rebound.

Further upside to the gold price? Assuming worries about the U.S. banking system abate, we think gold could give up some of its recent gains although we remain constructive on precious metals. After peaking in early March, the yield on the 10-year treasury note and the U.S. Dollar Index reversed course with the yield on the treasury ending at 3.49% compared to 3.88% at the end of 2022 and the U.S. dollar Index down 1% during the quarter. Most of this was the result of the recent banking turmoil. While we continue to believe interest rates could peak by mid-year, the big question is how long before they begin easing rates. This will obviously depend on economic conditions, the inflation rate, and employment.

Outlook for industrial metals. While the long-term investment case for owning industrial metals mining companies remains favorable, it may be too early to offer a bullish call due to near-term concerns about economic growth in the U.S. and abroad. During the recent Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention, key themes in the keynote presentations were electrification and growing demand for critical minerals and battery metals, including cobalt, copper, lithium, magnesium, and nickel, critical to securing a decarbonized future with broad applications in electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, solar power, and wind turbines.

Conclusion. We think precious metals mining companies, notably juniors, continue to offer attractive return potential. While the near-term outlook for industrial metals could be negatively impacted by near-term macroeconomic factors, an eventual return to economic growth could result in strong prices due to potential supply and demand imbalances.


GENERAL DISCLAIMERS

All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “we”, “us”, or “our” are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc.(“Noble”) and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.

This publication is intended for information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to buy/sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security mentioned in this report, nor shall there be any sale of the security herein in any state or domicile in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or domicile. This publication and all information, comments, statements or opinions contained or expressed herein are applicable only as of the date of this publication and subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Noble accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Noble. This report is not to be relied upon as a substitute for the exercising of independent judgement. Noble may have published, and may in the future publish, other research reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information provided in this report. Noble is under no obligation to bring to the attention of any recipient of this report, any past or future reports. Investors should only consider this report as single factor in making an investment decision.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or discussed to another party, without the written consent of Noble Capital Markets, Inc. (“Noble”). Noble seeks to update its research as appropriate, but may be unable to do so based upon various regulatory constraints. Research reports are not published at regular intervals; publication times and dates are based upon the analyst’s judgement. Noble professionals including traders, salespeople and investment bankers may provide written or oral market commentary, or discuss trading strategies to Noble clients and the Noble proprietary trading desk that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report.
The majority of companies that Noble follows are emerging growth companies. Securities in these companies involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Noble research reports may not be suitable for some investors and as such, investors must take extra care and make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment based upon risk tolerance, investment objectives and financial status.

Company Specific Disclosures

The following disclosures relate to relationships between Noble and the company (the “Company”) covered by the Noble Research Division and referred to in this research report.
Noble is not a market maker in any of the companies mentioned in this report. Noble intends to seek compensation for investment banking services and non-investment banking services (securities and non-securities related) with any or all of the companies mentioned in this report within the next 3 months

ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE

Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87

WARNING

This report is intended to provide general securities advice, and does not purport to make any recommendation that any securities transaction is appropriate for any recipient particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decision, recipients should assess, or seek advice from their advisors, on whether any relevant part of this report is appropriate to their individual circumstances. If a recipient was referred to Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by an investment advisor, that advisor may receive a benefit in respect of
transactions effected on the recipients behalf, details of which will be available on request in regard to a transaction that involves a personalized securities recommendation. Additional risks associated with the security mentioned in this report that might impede achievement of the target can be found in its initial report issued by Noble Capital Markets, Inc.. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose unless authorized by Noble Capital Markets, Inc..

RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION

Independence Of View
All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.

Receipt of Compensation
No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed in the public
appearance and/or research report.

Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest
Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.

Noble Capital Markets Annual Investor Conference – NobleCon – to be held at Florida Atlantic University December 3-5

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Noble Capital Markets Annual Investor Conference – NobleCon – to be held at Florida Atlantic University December 3-5

Boca Raton, FL, March 1, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — In a joint statement, Noble Capital Markets, Inc. (“Noble”) and Florida Atlantic University announced today that NobleCon19 – Noble’s 19th Annual Small Cap Investor Conference – will be held at the University’s College of Business Executive Education facility, Dec. 3-5, 2023, in Boca Raton, Florida. The 52,000 square foot, state-of-the-art facility was opened August 2020. 

Noble has worked with the University for over a decade and was instrumental in the development of their Financial Analyst Program, and Noble’s Intern Program has generated great assets with graduates from the University. “We are extremely proud of our long-standing relationship with Florida Atlantic University,” said Nico Pronk, Noble’s President & CEO. “This new collaboration certainly elevates it to a whole new level.”

Vegar Wiik, Executive Director of the College of Business, Executive Education agrees, stating “Our vision for the College and this magnificent structure is to effectively integrate our curriculum with established businesses. Daniel Gropper, dean of FAU’s College of Business, said the financial industry is an important, integral part of the economy. “I can’t think of a better way to expose our students to the importance of emerging growth companies than to have 100 plus executive teams in the halls of our campus,” he said.

The entire College of Business Executive Education facility will transform into NobleCon19. Each presentation room will accommodate investors, in tiered seating with personal monitors. High-definition cameras, full-room microphones (to capture audience questions), three large screens, and full webcasting capabilities will offer the most technologically advanced conference environment on the circuit. Attendees will also experience similarly equipped rooms for panel presentations, private breakouts, and meetings, and in large gathering spaces, both indoors and out, as well as 800 free covered parking spaces. Florida Atlantic University is centrally located in Boca Raton, off I-95, only minutes from the Boca Raton Airport, and less than half an hour from Fort Lauderdale International Airport. Privaira, located at Boca Raton Airport is the official private air charter company for NobleCon19. A wide range of hotel accommodations are available within a five-mile radius, from economy to the ultra-luxurious “The Boca Raton.” Noble will be working with several properties to offer NobleCon19 attendees discounted rates.

The format of NobleCon will include company presentations followed by fire-side chats with Noble analysts, and select one-on-one meetings for qualified investors only, as well as several industry panel presentations. On the networking side, Noble is planning for informative keynote speakers and live entertainment, in an effort expand the business day in a more casual, conversational environment. All company presentations and panel discussions will be digitally streamed and made available exclusively on www.channelchek.com – Noble’s proprietary investment community portal.

Who should attend? Public companies from any business sector with market capitalizations of below $3-4 billion. Private companies planning a capital raise, considering becoming public, or an M&A event. NobleCon19 will suit every level of investor; high net worth individuals, family offices, self-directed investors, private equity, RIAs, financial advisors, equity analysts, and institutional investors. www.NobleCon19.com

About Florida Atlantic University

Florida Atlantic University, established in 1961, officially opened its doors in 1964 as the fifth public university in Florida. Today, the University serves more than 30,000 undergraduate and graduate students across six campuses located along the southeast Florida coast. In recent years, the University has doubled its research expenditures and outpaced its peers in student achievement rates. Through the coexistence of access and excellence, FAU embodies an innovative model where traditional achievement gaps vanish. FAU is designated a Hispanic-serving institution, ranked as a top public university by U.S. News & World Report and a High Research Activity institution by the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching. For more information, visit www.fau.edu.

About Noble Capital Markets

Noble Capital Markets, Inc. was incorporated in 1984 as a full-service SEC / FINRA registered broker-dealer, dedicated exclusively to serving underfollowed emerging growth companies through investment banking, wealth management, trading & execution, and equity research activities. Over the past 39 years, Noble has raised billions of dollars for companies and published more than 45,000 equity research reports. www.noblecapitalmarkets.com  contact@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Bowlero (BOWL) – Stock Slips Creating More Compelling Opportunity


Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Bowlero Corp. is the worldwide leader in bowling entertainment, media, and events. With more than 300 bowling centers across North America, Bowlero Corp. serves more than 26 million guests each year through a family of brands that includes Bowlero, Bowlmor Lanes, and AMF. In 2019, Bowlero Corp. acquired the Professional Bowlers Association, the major league of bowling, which boasts thousands of members and millions of fans across the globe. For more information on Bowlero Corp., please visit BowleroCorp.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Exercised the earn-out. In 2021, Bowlero issued 11.4 million “earn-out” shares exercisable should the shares trade at or above $15 for a 10 day  period. Given the recent price movement, the “earn-out” was achieved, and, as a result, Atairos Group and Thomas Shannon each received 4.9 million earn-out shares. Atairos subsequently sold the shares.

Increasing float. Atairos acquired the “earn-out” shares as part of the business combination agreement when Bowlero went public in 2021. Atairos could have sold up to 9 million shares under 144a, but only sold the exact number of “earn-out” shares. Atairos cannot sell additional shares until Bowlero’s next earnings date in mid-May. The sale of the 4.9 million earnout shares increased Bowlero’s public share float from 17.9% to 20.7% of total shares outstanding. 


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Schwazze (SHWZ) – Keep On Growing


Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Schwazze (OTCQX:SHWZ, NEO:SHWZ) is building a premier vertically integrated regional cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico and will continue to take its operating system to other states where it can develop a differentiated regional leadership position. Schwazze is the parent company of a portfolio of leading cannabis businesses and brands spanning seed to sale. The Company is committed to unlocking the full potential of the cannabis plant to improve the human condition. Schwazze is anchored by a high-performance culture that combines customer-centric thinking and data science to test, measure, and drive decisions and outcomes. The Company’s leadership team has deep expertise in retailing, wholesaling, and building consumer brands at Fortune 500 companies as well as in the cannabis sector. Schwazze is passionate about making a difference in our communities, promoting diversity and inclusion, and doing our part to incorporate climate-conscious best practices.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A New Store. Schwazze recently announced the opening of a new R. Greenleaf store in New Mexico. The new store will be located at 800 W. Pierce Street in Carlsbad and will have a grand opening date of March 25, 2023. The opening makes it eight new dispensaries in New Mexico since Schwazze acquired R. Greenleaf in February 2022.

City Details. Carlsbad has an overall population of 29,278 with a median household income of approximately $70,000 as of 2020 from Data USA. The town is somewhat competitive, as it contains 14 other dispensaries according to the New Mexico Regulation and Licensing Department. Carlsbad is located in the southeast portion of New Mexico as well, near the border of Texas, which is an area of focus for Schwazze as local dispensaries can benefit from out-of-state customers.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Channelchek Takeaway Series – PDAC Minerals Exploration & Mining Convention

Takeaways from PDAC Minerals and Mining Convention

Replays Now Available on Channelchek!

This annual event in Toronto, Canada is known for attracting up to 30,000 attendees from over 130+ countries for its educational programming, networking events, and outstanding business opportunities. Since it began in 1932, the PDAC Convention has grown in size, stature and influence. Today, it is the event of choice for the world’s mineral industry hosting more than 1,100 exhibitors and 2,500 investors.

The Noble team attended meetings, networking events and interviewed c-suite executives. We captured it all on video and featured their collective takeaway exclusively on Channelchek. The next best thing to being there. And at no cost. Replays coming to Channelchek March 28, exclusively for registered members.

Replays are available exclusively to Channelchek members. It’s totally free to join the community, just click the join button at the top of the page.

Noble Capital Markets Senior Research Analyst Mark Reichman provides his takeaways from the PDAC Metals and Mining Convention.

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Piedmont Lithium (PLL)

CEO Keith Phillips

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Newrange Gold Corp. (NRGOF)

CEO Robert Archer

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Mountain Boy Minerals (MBYMF)

CEO Laurence Roulston

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Maple Gold Mines Ltd. (MGMLF)

CEO Matthew Horner

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LithiumBank Resources Corp. (LBNKF)

CEO Robert Shewchuk

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Labrador Gold Corp. (NKOSF)

President Roger Moss

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Eskay Mining Corp. (ESKYF)

CEO Mac Balkam

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Endeavour Silver (EXK)

CEO Daniel Dickson

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Comstock Inc. (LODE)

CEO Corrado De Gasperis

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Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)

VP, IR Spiros Cacos

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Aurania Resources (AUIAF)

CEO Dr. Keith Barron

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Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM)

IR Jean-Maire Clouet

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