Noble Capital Markets Research Morning Call

Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 24, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

EuroDry (EDRY)/MARKET PERFORM – Revising 2025 Estimates
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing 2025 Estimates
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Our Forward Estimates and Increasing our PT
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Estimates and Market Outlook
Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – Steps On The Customer Acquisition Accelerator

EuroDry (EDRY/$10.8)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Revising 2025 Estimates
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

Second quarter estimates. We are lowering our Q2 2025 revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates to $11.4 million and a loss of $1.23, respectively, from $14.1 million and a loss of $0.76. Additionally, we are reducing our operating expenses to $13.0 million from $14.4 million, as dry docking expenses have been pushed into the third quarter. Despite lower operating expenses, we are decreasing our adjusted EBITDA estimate to $1.6 million from $2.9 million. The decrease in our earnings estimates is mainly due to lower-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rates.

Full-Year 2025 estimates. We are lowering our 2025 revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates to $46.0 million and a loss of $4.41, respectively, from $50.3 million and a loss of $3.79. We are trimming our operating expenses to $51.4 million from $51.8 million, due to lower expected voyage expenses. Our adjusted EBITDA estimates were lowered to $5.6 million from $9.3 million. The lower estimates are driven by soft market rates.

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Euroseas (ESEA/$50.99 | Price Target: $57)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Increasing 2025 Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Updating second quarter estimates. We are raising our second quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates to $56.7 million and $3.87, respectively, from $54.0 million and $3.45. Additionally, we are increasing our adjusted EBITDA estimate to $38.5 million from $35.0 million. The upward revisions are driven by stronger-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rates.

Full-year 2025 estimates. For the full-year 2025, we expect higher revenues and adjusted earnings per share estimates of $228.5 million and $15.47, respectively, up from $225.6 million and $15.05. We are raising our operating expense estimates to $83.0 million from $81.7 million, due to higher dry-docking expenses. Our full year adjusted EBITDA estimate has been increased to $153.1 million from $149.2 million. The increases in our estimates are largely due to higher TCE rates. 

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FreightCar America (RAIL/$11.54 | Price Target: $16)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Updating Our Forward Estimates and Increasing our PT
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Increasing longer-term rail car delivery estimates. While we have maintained our rail car delivery estimates for 2025 through 2027, we have increased our delivery estimates for 2028 through 2030. We now forecast rail car deliveries of 5,500, 5,750, and 6,000, respectively, compared with our prior estimates of 5,000, 5,000, and 5,000. While we had previously assumed that RAIL would operate four production lines with an aggregate capacity of 5,000 rail cars through 2030, we now assume the company will operate five production lines with a total capacity of 6,250 rail cars beginning in 2028. Our prior assumption had been that the company could begin producing a new line of higher-margin tank cars using existing capacity at the expense of lower margin products. Because we think tank cars could add an incremental 500 or more orders beginning in 2028, the tank cars would be incremental to existing orders with five production lines.

Updating earnings estimates. We forecast 2025 EBITDA and EPS of $45.9 million and $0.47, respectively, while our 2026 estimates are $48.6 million and $0.53. While our 2025 and 2026 EBITDA estimates are unchanged, we have increased our forward estimates, which may be found in the financial model at the end of this report. While our earnings estimates have increased, gross margin as a percentage of sales remains unchanged at 13.0%, 13.3%, 13.5%, and 13.8% in 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2030, respectively, while selling, general, and administrative expense as a percentage of sales increased modestly. 

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Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$7 | Price Target: $9)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Updating Estimates and Market Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Second Quarter 2025 Estimate Revisions. We are raising our Q2 2025 net revenue forecast to $36.5 million from $35.9 million, driven by stronger-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rates. However, we are lowering our adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $16.7 million and $0.11, respectively, from $17.3 million and $0.17, reflecting higher operating expenses of $29.1 million versus $27.5 million previously. The increase reflects a full quarter of the expanded fleet as well as higher-than-expected dry-docking activity.

Full-Year 2025 Estimate Changes. We are increasing our 2025 revenue forecast to $143.4 million from $142.9 million, as we expect improving rate momentum to continue through year-end. We are also raising our operating expense estimate to $113.9 million from $109.4 million, reflecting a greater number of anticipated dry-docking days. As a result, we are lowering our adjusted EBITDA projection to $67.7 million from $70.5 million and our EPS estimate to $0.51 from $0.74.

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Travelzoo (TZOO/$12.55 | Price Target: $26)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Steps On The Customer Acquisition Accelerator
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Mixed second quarter results. Revenues significantly increased 13.1% to $23.9 million, a sequential quarterly increase from 5.3% in Q1, reflecting its strategic shift toward a subscription based model. Adj. EBITDA fell short of our expectations, however, due to a step up in customer acquisition spend and the purchase of “distressed” vouchers. 

Favorable customer acquisition dynamics. Customer acquisition costs went up in Q2 to $38 from $28 in Q1, but still remains positive. Total return is $58, $40 from the annual subscription fee and $18 from transactions. Management anticipates to continue to aggressively spend on customer acquisition in light of the favorable Return on Investment. These moves support a longer term attractive revenue outlook, but have a near term adverse impact on adj. EBITDA.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI)/OUTPERFORM – Improving Oncology Treatment While Cutting Costs

The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI/$3.54 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Improving Oncology Treatment While Cutting Costs
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Initiating Coverage of The Oncology Institute With An Outperform Rating. The Oncology Institute of Hope & Innovation (TOI) is a medical practice management company specializing in community-based oncology practices. It manages and operates oncology clinics in five states using its proprietary, value-based methodology. These treatment regimens have improved outcomes for patients while reducing the cost of care.

TOI Uses Capitated Contracts To Control Costs. TOI enters into contracts with third-party payers to treat a specified number of health plan members based on the estimated per-member, per-month cost. This method of providing coverage based on population size is known as capitation. It also offers traditional fee-for-service as well as value-based oncology care.  This provides TOI with the flexibility to contract with more insurance plans.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 22, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Angel Island Lithium Carbonate Proves its Value
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Our Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation; Raising Price Target

Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.25 | Price Target: $2.35)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Angel Island Lithium Carbonate Proves its Value
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Lithium-metal anodes. Century Lithium announced that Alpha-En Corporation successfully converted Century’s lithium carbonate into battery-grade lithium-metal anodes for use in lithium-ion batteries. The lithium-metal anodes were produced using 99.8% pure lithium carbonate from Century’s Angel Island project and demonstration plant. The sample was converted by Alpha-En into lithium metal using Alpha-En’s patented conversion process.

LFP 18650 battery cells. Earlier in the month, Century announced that First Phosphate Corp. produced commercial-grade lithium iron phosphate (LFP) 18650 battery cells using North American critical minerals, including lithium carbonate sourced from Century’s Angel Island project and demonstration plant, along with high-purity phosphoric acid and iron powder from First Phosphate’s Begin-Lamarche property in Quebec. The LFP 18650 battery cells were assembled for First Phosphate by Ultion Technologies at their pilot facility in Nevada.

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Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.51 | Price Target: $0.75)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Updating Our Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation; Raising Price Target
Rating: OUTPERFORM

The Merritt Mill is processing ore. Nicola Mining’s (TSX.V: NIM, OTCQB: HUSIF) 100% owned Merritt Mill in British Columbia recently began milling and processing ore from Talisker Resources Ltd.’s (TSX: TSK, OTCQX: TSKFF) Mustang mine to produce gold and silver concentrate. On May 11, Talisker began trucking material to the Craigmont Mill. The commencement of milling operations marked Nicola’s transition to a long-term production plan and sustained revenue and cash flow generation.

Flow-through financing. Nicola Mining raised gross proceeds of C$2,175,000 with a non-brokered private placement of 4,350,000 units at a price of C$0.50 per unit. Each unit consists of one flow-through common share and one-half of one non-flow-through common share purchase warrant. Each warrant is exercisable at a price of C$0.65 and expires two years from the date of issuance. The financing was oversubscribed by a total of 350,000 units or C$175,000. Proceeds will be used to fund exploration at the company’s New Craigmont Copper Project.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, July 21, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Estimates and a First Look at 2026

InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$7.4 | Price Target: $15)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Increasing Estimates and a First Look at 2026
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Company strategy. Despite the recent improvement in oil prices, InPlay is maintaining its 2025 production guidance at 16,000 to 16,800 boe/d. Management reiterated that the strategy remains centered on capital discipline, prioritizing debt reduction over production growth. The company’s approach is supported by fluctuating oil prices and the performance of assets acquired from Obsidian Energy, which have demonstrated low decline rates and continue to well-exceed type curve expectations. Recall that as part of the transaction, Obsidian Energy received InPlay shares as part of the consideration.

Non-binding offer. InPlay Oil announced that Obsidian Energy has entered into a non-binding agreement with a third party for the sale of its entire position in InPlay, totaling 9,139,784 common shares. The proposed transaction is expected to occur at a premium to InPlay’s share price as of July 15, 2025. While the parties remain in discussions, no binding agreement has been finalized at this time.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, July 18, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – More News; Updated Model

Bit Digital (BTBT/$4.01 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
More News; Updated Model
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Updated Model. Earlier this week, Bit Digital announced preliminary revenue for 2Q25 in the $24.3-$26.9 million range, which is modestly below our and consensus estimates. The difference, in our view, is likely driven by the push to the right of some contracts. We are not too concerned as of now, as we expect the contracts to come online this year.

Adjusted Numbers. We lowered our 2Q revenue expectation to $25.3 million from a prior $31.6 million, with the biggest change coming in the Cloud Services and Mining line items. Net loss is now at $4.4 million, or $0.02/sh, versus a prior loss of $1.4 million, or $0.01/sh.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Extending a Track Record of Returning Capital to Shareholders
SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Temporary Pressure, Strong Path Forward
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Amends Senior Revolving Credit Facility

Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.41 | Price Target: $2.4)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Extending a Track Record of Returning Capital to Shareholders
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Special dividend. Hemisphere Energy declared a special dividend of C$0.03 per common share that is payable on August 15 to shareholders of record as of July 31. It is in addition to the company’s quarterly base dividend of C$0.025 per common share and is Hemisphere’s second special dividend payment in 2025.

Normal course issuer bid. Hemisphere Energy recently announced that the TSX Venture Exchange had accepted its notice to renew its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) to purchase for cancellation up to 7,934,731 common shares. Purchases will be made on the open market at prevailing market prices through the TSXV. The NCIB commenced on July 14, 2025, and will terminate on July 13, 2026.

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SelectQuote (SLQT/$2.23 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Temporary Pressure, Strong Path Forward
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Setting up fiscal 2026. We are adjusting our fiscal Q4 estimates to reflect updated expectations for the Medicare Advantage market, with a particular focus on recent regulatory changes affecting Special Needs Plans (SNPs). While these developments introduce near-term challenges, we believe SelectQuote is well-positioned heading into fiscal 2026. We expect the company to rebuild agent capacity ahead of the next Annual Enrollment Period (AEP), to support a trajectory of sustained revenue growth and adj. EBITDA margin expansion.

Special Needs changes. Our revised Q4 outlook is primarily driven by recent changes implemented by CMS that restructure Special Needs Plan switching rights. The policy shift narrows mid-year enrollment flexibility for a significant portion of dual-eligible consumers (those enrolled in non-integrated D-SNPs), leading to the prospect of a smaller pool of shopping beneficiaries during the middle of calendar 2025. In addition, we are accounting for SelectQuote’s reduced year-over-year agent count, which entered fiscal 2025 approximately 22% below the prior-year level due to capital constraints at the time. These factors combined create a more muted backdrop for near-term Medicare Advantage performance.

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The GEO Group (GEO/$25.04 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Amends Senior Revolving Credit Facility
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Amended Facility. The GEO Group announced amendments to its April 2024 Credit Agreement that provide enhanced flexibility, better terms, and an extended maturity. Along with the additional payments on the outstanding debt, GEO has taken another step closer to being able to return capital to shareholders, in our view.

Details. The Amendment increases GEO’s revolver commitments from $310 million to $450 million and extends the maturity to July 14, 2030. The Amendment further provides that interest will accrue on outstanding revolving credit loans at a rate determined with reference to the Company’s total leverage ratio, which, as of today, reduces the rate by 0.50% from the prior applicable rate. The Amendment also increases GEO’s capacity to make restricted payments over the next five years.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – A Compelling Transaction

Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$10.29 | Price Target: $17.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
A Compelling Transaction
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Purchases real estate. The company announced that it purchased the real estate of 58 existing bowling centers for $306 million from Carlyle Group, its main sale leaseback partner. The real estate is located in California, Illinois, Georgia, Arizona, and Colorado. With the purchase, the company now owns roughly 75 of its over 350 bowling centers. 

Financing set. The company amended its existing credit facility to provide a bridge loan of $230 million towards the purchase. Cash was used for the remaining purchase amount. We believe that the company will reduce the bridge loan over the course of the next year through free cash flow generation. 

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, July 14, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Estimates, Raising PT
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Fast Tracked Drone Opportunity; Raising PT

AZZ (AZZ/$106.04 | Price Target: $125)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Increasing Estimates, Raising PT
Rating: OUTPERFORM

First quarter financial results. For the first quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2026, AZZ reported adjusted net income of $53.8 million or $1.78 per share compared to $44.0 million or $1.46 per share during the prior year period and our estimate of $50.1 million or $1.66 per share. Compared to the first quarter of FY 2025, sales increased 2.1% to $422.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 13.1% to $106.4 million, representing 25.2% of sales compared to 22.8% of sales during the prior year period.

Updating estimates. We have increased our FY 2026 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $388.3 million and $6.00, respectively, from $381.7 million and $5.83. In FY 2026, our estimates reflect average gross margins of 30.0% and 20.3% for the Metal Coatings and Precoat Metals segments, respectively. Moreover, we have published our estimates for 2027 through 2031 in the back of this report. Our forward estimates reflect an average 30.5% gross margin as a percentage of sales for the Metal Coatings segment, compared to the prior average of 28.0%. The average gross margin as a percentage of sales for the Precoat Metals business is unchanged at 20.3%.

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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$51.71 | Price Target: $60)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Fast Tracked Drone Opportunity; Raising PT
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Directive. Building on President Trump’s June 6th Executive Order to Unleash American Drone Dominance, this past week Defense Secretary Hegseth signed a memo removing restrictive policies on drone innovation. By leveraging savings from DOGE, the DOD will help power a technological leapfrog and bolster the U.S. drone industry by approving hundreds of made-in-America drone products for purchase by the military. These goals play right into Kratos’ wheelhouse, in our view.

New Focus. The directive focuses on three key areas: strengthening the U.S. drone manufacturing base, arming combat units with a variety of low-cost drones, and ensuring those combat units are well-trained on how to use them. Kratos has been expanding its drone production capabilities, which the recent capital raise will turbocharge. Its drone technology is proven and available today, and the Company is the leader in providing target drones to the military.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 10, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2026
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – Meeting Highlights Tegoprubart Data Milestones and New Indications

AZZ (AZZ/$100.73 | Price Target: $112)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2026
Rating: OUTPERFORM

FY 2026 first quarter financial results. AZZ reported adjusted net income of $53.8 million or $1.78 per share compared to $44.0 million or $1.46 per share during the prior year period. We had forecast adjusted net income of $50.1 million or $1.66 per share. Compared to the first quarter of FY 2025, sales increased 2.1% to $422.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 13.1% to $106.4 million, representing 25.2% of sales compared to 22.8% of sales during the prior year period. We had projected adjusted EBITDA of $99.5 million. 

Meaningful debt reduction. Cash from operations during the fiscal first quarter amounted to $314.8 million, including proceeds of $273.2 million received from AVAIL’s sale of the Electrical Products Group. Following debt reduction of $285.4 million, AZZ ended the quarter with a net leverage ratio of 1.7x TTM adjusted EBITDA. As of May 31, long-term debt, gross was $614.9 million compared to $900.3 million on February 28. Net of unamortized debt issuance costs, long-term debt was $569.8 million on May 31 compared to $852.4 million on February 28.

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Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$3.4 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Meeting Highlights Tegoprubart Data Milestones and New Indications
Rating: OUTPERFORM

R&D Day Highlighted Science, Current Trials, Future Indications. We attended the Eledon R&D Day on July 9 to hear and evaluate the progress in tegoprubart development. The presentations focused on the current clinical indications in renal transplantation, islet cell transplantation, xenotransplants, and plans for liver and other solid organ transplants. Conference presentation dates for upcoming data announcements were also announced.

Phase 1b Data Update Is Planned For August. The Phase 1b open-label trial has been expanded to enroll up to 36 patients, an increase from the original 9 patients. Data is scheduled for presentation at the World Transplant Congress on August 9, 2025. Previous data presentations have included 13 patients. We expect to see follow-up data from more patients treated longer, with data from additional patients beyond the initial 12-month trial duration.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – Outlook Remains Favorable, Increasing 2025 Estimates
E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Strengthening Its Station Portfolio
Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Seeking Fuel For Growth

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$26.72 | Price Target: $31)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Outlook Remains Favorable, Increasing 2025 Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Updating estimates. We are increasing our 2025 adjusted EBITDA and EPU estimates to $676.5 million and $2.55, respectively, from $672.6 million and $2.52. We increased our crude oil and natural gas price estimates based on CME futures settlements, which had a positive impact on oil and gas royalty revenue. Our 2026 adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates are unchanged at $678.3 million and $2.60, respectively. While management expects the average coal sales price per ton to trend lower in 2026 due to higher-priced contracts rolling off, we think 2025 longwall moves and actions to improve productivity and cost effectiveness could help offset the impact of lower prices.

Recent legislation expected to benefit the fossil fuel industry. Following several executive orders earlier in the year intended to support the coal industry and delay coal power plant retirements, the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) was signed into law on July 4 and is expected to benefit the fossil fuel industry. Among other things, the BBB phases out many of the clean energy tax credits established under the Inflation Reduction Act and creates a supportive environment for oil, gas, and coal production.

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E.W. Scripps (SSP/$3.42 | Price Target: $10)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Strengthening Its Station Portfolio
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Compelling station swap. Scripps will be selling its stations in Lansing MI and Lafayette LA to Gray Television (GTN: Not Rated) and buying stations in Colorado Springs, CO and Grand Junction, CO and a station in Twin Falls ID. We view the move favorably, given that Scripps will create station duopolies and strengthen its presence in the West. We believe that the move will create significant efficiencies for both companies, eliminating back office, duplicative, and overhead costs. This will be an even swap with no cash compensation to either party. 

FCC fast track? The FCC has signaled its willingness to fast track the regulatory process, likely to provide a “waiver” to create duopolies rather than to seek a longer review/rulemaking process. As such, we believe that the transaction could be completed by year end. 

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Xcel Brands (XELB/$1.58 | Price Target: $9)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Seeking Fuel For Growth
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Files S1. The company plans to sell 1.381 million shares on a “best efforts” basis and pre-funded warrants. Pre-funded warrants are exercisable at any time after the date of issuance and may be exercised at any time. Notably, management has indicated its interest in participating in the offering for up to 10% of the shares. Following the prospective sale, total shares outstanding would increase to 3.819 million shares. 

Use of proceeds. Based on the current stock price and assuming all shares are sold, management expects to generate roughly $1.9 million in net proceeds from the offering. The company plans to use the proceeds for working capital and general corporate purposes and toward a $50,000 principal loan payment to a company controlled by Robert D’Loren, the company’s Chairman and CEO. 

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 3, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – A Debt Refi
Government Solutions (Government Solutions) – CoreCivic and GEO poised to Benefit From Big Beautiful Bill
MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – Rec Sales to Begin in Delaware
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – Diners Seeking “Uniqueness and Entertainment”

Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$2 | Price Target: $4)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Debt Refi
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Refi. Commercial Vehicle Group successfully refinanced its debt, extending the maturity out to 2030 from 2027. We believe this should provide the Company with additional financial flexibility as management continues to drive further operational efficiency.

Details. The Company went from an $85 million term loan to a $95 million term loan and from a $125 million ABL to a $115 million ABL. Proceeds were used to repay $120.1 million outstanding under the previous facility. The initial interest rate on the term loan is 9.75%, although future rates will have a tiered interest cost based on the consolidated leverage ratio. The initial ABL rate is SOFR plus 1.75%.

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Government Solutions
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
CoreCivic and GEO poised to Benefit From Big Beautiful Bill

Big Beautiful Bill. The Senate version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” aligns with or even improves upon the House version when it comes to spending on immigration. While it remains to be seen the exact version that will come out of the reconciliation process and be sent to President Trump for his signature, the proposed versions should prove to be beneficial to both CoreCivic and The GEO Group.

Detention Budget. Both the Senate and House proposals call for $45 billion of funding for detention capacity or an additional $10.6 billion annually through fiscal 2029. This would represent an over 300% increase over the current detention budget. This level of funding could support detention bed capacity in excess of 115,000 beds, up from a current 41,500.

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MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.08 | Price Target: $0.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Rec Sales to Begin in Delaware
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Recreational Cannabis. After legislation approving recreational cannabis in April 2023, Delaware will finally commence sales of recreational cannabis on August 1st of this year. Legal recreational cannabis can be purchased in the 13 existing medical dispensaries as well as through the 30 recreational licenses the state has approved. We expect sales to be derived not only from the state population, many of whom currently travel to existing legal states such as Maryland and New Jersey to obtain the product, but also from the estimated 30 million tourists that visit the state annually.

Delaware Market. Delaware has had a medical market for a while. The market is estimated to be approximately $50 million in size, with flattish growth to 2029 when the medical is projected to rise to $55 million. The recreational cannabis market could grow to the $250-$300 million level, according to various government projections.

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ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$4.75 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Diners Seeking “Uniqueness and Entertainment”
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Diner Views. Today’s diners are seeking out venues that prioritize entertainment and uniqueness, according to a Yelp survey that analyzed consumer web searches from January to March. The Yelp findings are in-line with recent research by hospitality management platform SevenRooms. According to SevenRooms’ 2025 U.S. Restaurant Industry Trends, consumers who dine out value unique experiences, even at a premium, with 74% of consumers returning to a restaurant after a unique experience.

A Vibe Dining Leader. As a leader in Vibe Dining, ONE Hospitality is well positioned to capitalize on this trend through its portfolio of concepts, including chains STK, Benihana, Kona Grill, and RA Sushi, as well as the Salt Water Social and Samurai concepts. These upscale and polished casual, high-energy restaurants and lounges provide entertainment and unique experiences for diners, as well as one-of-a-kind, celebratory experiences that bring customers back.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 2, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – AZZ Acquires Canton Galvanizing, LLC
GoHealth (GOCO)/OUTPERFORM – Credit Amendment Provides Reprieve
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – A Cooperation Agreement and New Directors
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – From Lease to Ownership

AZZ (AZZ/$96.74 | Price Target: $112)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
AZZ Acquires Canton Galvanizing, LLC
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Bolt-on acquisition. AZZ Inc. entered into an agreement to acquire all the assets of Canton Galvanizing, LLC, a privately held hot dip galvanizing company based in Canton, Ohio. While the terms of the transaction were not disclosed, AZZ expects the transaction to be accretive to earnings within the first year of operation. Founded in 2019, Canton provides hot-dip galvanizing to customers in the U.S. Midwest and specializes in coating small to mid-size parts.

Strengthens AZZ’s presence in the U.S. Midwest. The strategic acquisition expands AZZ’s Metal Coatings capabilities in the US. Midwest and increases its total galvanizing network to 42 sites in North America. It has been renamed AZZ Galvanizing – Canton East LLC. With a spinning operation and a 21-foot kettle, Canton is known for quick turnaround times and excellent customer service.

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GoHealth (GOCO/$5.92 | Price Target: $25)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Credit Amendment Provides Reprieve
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Amended credit agreement. On June 30, the company announced an amendment to its credit agreement, extending the maturity of the company’s Class A Revolving Commitments from Q2 end to Q3 end. Moreover, any interest due on the revolver and refinanced term loans through that date will be paid in-kind. The amendment also waived financial covenant testing for Q2 and Q3, offering the company a temporary liquidity reprieve.

Cost of amendment. As part of the amendment, GoHealth will pay a 1.00% amendment fee to consenting lenders, which, along with all interest through September 30, will be paid in-kind and added to the principal balance of its loans. As a result, we estimate these provisions will increase the company’s outstanding debt by approximately $6 million.

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Resources Connection (RGP/$5.76 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
A Cooperation Agreement and New Directors
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Cooperation Agreement. Resources Connection has entered into a “Cooperation Agreement” with shareholder Circumference Group LLC. According to a Form 3 filing of June 30th, Circumference owns 1,289,243 RGP shares, representing 3.9% of the common shares outstanding as of March 31st.

Board Changes. As part of the Cooperation Agreement, RGP appointed Jeff Fox, founding partner and CEO of Circumference Group, and Filip Gyde, former CEO of Computer Task Group, to the Board. Current Board members Anthony Cherbak and Neil Dimick will retire from the Board following the conclusion of their terms in October 2025.

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The GEO Group (GEO/$24.49 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
From Lease to Ownership
Rating: OUTPERFORM

A Purchase. The GEO Group is purchasing the currently leased 770-bed Western Region Detention facility for $60 million, or $77,900/bed. GEO is currently leasing the facility at a cost of $5.1 million annually. GEO has had a long-term contract with the U.S. Marshals Service for use of the facility, which generates approximately $57 million of annualized revenue.

A Tax Savings. Expected to close by the end of July, the transaction is expected to be funded as a like kind real estate property exchange with proceeds from the previously announced sale of the GEO-owned  Lawton Correctional Facility, which is expected to close on July 25th, resulting in an estimated capital gains cash tax savings of approximately $9.5 million.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Some Award Updates
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Completes $575 Million Capital Raise
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – CRL Letter Received As Second Manufacturer Generates Data

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$12.19 | Price Target: $14)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some Award Updates
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Awards. Yesterday, Great Lakes provided an update on some recent awards. Each of the awards adds to the Company’s significant backlog, which stood at approximately $1 billion with an additional $265 million in low bids and options pending award at the end of the first quarter. The large backlog, with a majority being higher margin capital projects, provides strong visibility for 2025 and into 2026.

Woodside LNG. The Company received Notice to Proceed from Bechtel Energy for dredging work on the Woodside Louisiana LNG project. The first phase of work, which was awarded in the second quarter of 2025, includes the construction of a ship berthing basin for use by large LNG carriers, with potential for award of two options to expand the scope of construction for additional ship berths. Dredging operations are expected to commence in early 2026.

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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$46.45 | Price Target: $44)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Completes $575 Million Capital Raise
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Capital Raise. Kratos completed its previously announced offering of Kratos common stock, raising  $575 million in gross proceeds, at a public offering price of  $38.50 per share, for a total of 14,935,065 shares of common stock, which includes the exercise of the underwriter’s option to purchase additional shares. Net proceeds from the offering were approximately  $556 million. Noble Capital participated as a co-manager of the offering.

Use of Proceeds. Kratos expects to use the net proceeds of the offering to (i) fund investments and capital expenditures to scale and successfully execute on large, mission critical National Security priorities related to existing programs, recent program awards and significant high-probability pipeline opportunities; (ii) to finance important customer and program targeted acquisitions; (iii) and for general corporate purposes.

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Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$4.77 | Price Target: $60)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
CRL Letter Received As Second Manufacturer Generates Data
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Approval Delay Is Not A Surprise. Unicycive announced that it has received a Complete Response Letter (CRL) in response to its New Drug Application (NDA) for Oxylanthanum Carbonate (OLC). This was expected following the announcement earlier this month stating that the FDA manufacturing inspection had found deficiencies with one of the OLC contract manufacturers. The company has switched to one of its other manufacturers, which we believe can resolve the issues quickly. We see approval possible around 4Q25 to 1Q26.

Plans To Address The Issues. Unicycive plans to hold a Type A meeting with the FDA to determine its requirements for resolution of the issues cited in the CRL. The company’s second manufacturer already produces OLC and has been generating data for FDA certification. This should allow Unicycive to submit any additional data requested quickly to resolve the issue.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, June 30, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Promising New Data Highlights the Potential for a Significant Copper Discovery

Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.17 | Price Target: $0.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Promising New Data Highlights the Potential for a Significant Copper Discovery
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Application of two-dimensional inversion technology. Aurania Resources announced that six highly conductive anomalies have been revealed at the company’s Awacha porphyry copper target based on reprocessed data from a 2021 mobile magnetotellurics (MobileMT) survey using the latest two-dimensional (2D) inversion technology. Compared to the previously employed 1D algorithm, the 2.5D code accounts for the actual topography of the area, resulting in more accurate mapping of subsurface conductivity.

Six promising anomalies at Awacha. New inversion data has confirmed the presence of six high-conductivity anomalies that begin 250 meters from the surface and exhibit deep roots. The anomalies are of significant interest because zones of elevated conductivity often correlate with porphyry copper deposits due to the presence of conductive sulphide minerals and porphyry-related alteration.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, June 27, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Quarterly Cash Dividend Increased by 17.6%, 1Q FY2026 Financial Results to be Released on July 9
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – A Flurry of News
Steelcase (SCS)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – An $118 Million Contract

AZZ (AZZ/$92.75 | Price Target: $112)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Quarterly Cash Dividend Increased by 17.6%, 1Q FY2026 Financial Results to be Released on July 9
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Increase in the quarterly cash dividend. AZZ announced a 17.6% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.20 per share, or $0.80 on an annualized basis, from $0.17 per share, or $0.68 on an annualized basis. The dividend is payable on July 31 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on July 10. In our view, the dividend increase reflects management’s confidence in the company’s near- and long-term outlook.

First Quarter FY 2026 financial results. AZZ will release its first quarter financial results after the market close on Wednesday, July 9. Management will host an investor conference call and webcast on Thursday, July 10, at 11:00 am ET. We look forward to an update regarding the company’s new aluminum coil coating facility in Washington, Missouri, that is ramping up production, along with a review of market fundamentals and the company’s capital allocation priorities.

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Bit Digital (BTBT/$1.99 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Flurry of News
Rating: OUTPERFORM

News. Bit Digital released a flurry of news over the past two days, including a strategic shift in its business strategy, the potential IPO of its WhiteFiber subsidiary, and a $150 million equity offering. Needless to say, a lot to digest. If completed, the announced shifts would result in a significant change to Bit Digital.

Ethereum Focus. Operationally, Bit Digital will exit the bitcoin mining business and transition to become a pure-play Ethereum staking and treasury company. Given the economics of bitcoin mining versus Ethereum staking, we see the rationale in the move. The Company has commenced a strategic alternatives process for the Bitcoin mining operations.

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Steelcase (SCS/$10.89 | Price Target: $16)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Post Call Commentary
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Mixed Environment. Steelcase continues to face a mixed environment, both on a vertical basis and a geographical basis. The key large corporate customer cohort is doing well, driven by a number of factors such as return to office, but education and government have been hit by funding uncertainties. Germany and France remain sluggish in the key small-to-mid-sized business, but India and China are doing better.

International Actions. Steelcase is taking steps to implement additional cost reduction efforts in Europe, given the weak macroeconomic factors and lower demand in France and Germany. A goal of these actions is to get the International segment back to profitability.

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V2X (VVX/$48.47 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
An $118 Million Contract
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Support Services. According to the daily Department of Defense contract announcements, V2X subsidiary Vectrus Systems has been awarded an $118 million cost-plus-fixed-fee undefinitized contract for base support services in support of the Iraq F-16 program. This is another in a long line of recent wins for V2X, demonstrating the V2X value proposition and confirming the significant traction on near-term Foreign Military and International opportunities previously highlighted by management.

Details. The contract provides for base operating support, base life support, and security services. Work will be performed at Martyr BG Ali Flaih Air Base, Iraq, and is expected to be completed by Nov. 30, 2026. This contract involves Foreign Military Sales (FMS) to Iraq. This contract was a sole source acquisition. FMS funds in the amount of $57.8 million are being obligated at the time of award.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, June 26, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Steelcase (SCS)/OUTPERFORM – First Look At A Solid First Quarter

Steelcase (SCS/$10.62 | Price Target: $16)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
First Look At A Solid First Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM

1Q26. Steelcase reported solid results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Revenue grew 7% y-o-y to $779 million, towards the upper end of guidance. We had forecast $760 million and the consensus was $762 million. Gross margin of 33.9% was up 170 bp y-o-y and above management’s 33% guide. Steelcase reported net income of $13.6 million, or EPS of $0.11, and adjusted EPS of $0.20, compared to $10.9 million, $0.09, and $0.16, respectively, last year. We were at adjusted EPS of $0.14, while consensus was $0.13.

Quarterly Drivers. The Americas business was up 9%, both on a reported and organic basis, driven by a higher beginning backlog compared to the prior year and included strong growth from large corporate, government, and healthcare customers. International was up 1% on a reported basis but down 1% on an organic basis, driven by declines in Germany and France, mostly offset by growth in India, the UK, and China.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Comstock (LODE) /MARKET PERFORM –  Strategic Partnership with Virtus Renewables

Comstock (LODE/$3.55)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Strategic Partnership with Virtus Renewables
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

Strategic partnership with Virtus. Comstock Metals forged a strategic partnership with Virtus Renewables Service Group Inc. Comstock and Virtus will jointly develop and deliver comprehensive recycling, decommissioning, and logistics solutions designed to suit the specific needs of the renewable energy markets. The partnership enables a systemwide service offering with expanded industry reach to offer environmentally conscious solutions for renewable energy clients across the United States.

Mutual benefits. Virtus offers a comprehensive suite of operations, project management, and maintenance services for solar and battery storage projects. Combining Virtus’s end-to-end renewable energy service expertise with Comstock’s industry-leading, zero-landfill solution enhances its ability to serve the renewable energy market and benefit from a full lifecycle certification process that adheres to the highest standards of sustainability, reliability, and service. Comstock is the first solar panel recycling company in North America to be certified by Sustainable Electronics Recycling International (SERI) to the R2v3/RIOS Responsible Recycling Standard.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – New Credit Agreement
Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Potential Fuel for Growth
Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – Merger Agreement Moves NeoCart Into A New Company
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – Raising Price Target On Favorable Outlook

Bit Digital (BTBT/$2.32 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
New Credit Agreement
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Credit Agreement. Yesterday, Bit Digital’s WhiteFiber subsidiary announced a CAD$60 million credit facility with Royal Bank of Canada (RBC). We view this step favorably, as the facility not only provides funds to support the continued buildout of WhiteFiber’s Tier-3 AI data center portfolio but also is a confirmation of Bit Digital’s AI business model, in our view.

Terms. While we expect an 8-K to be filed with a full accounting of the terms, the credit agreement is among RBC and ENOVUM Data Centers Corp. and its Montreal II project as borrowers and guarantors, and is non-recourse to WhiteFiber or Bit Digital. It encompasses a real estate term loan, equipment financing, and a revolving facility. The facilities carry interest rates of CORRA plus 250 bps and a 3-year term.

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Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$5.35 | Price Target: $9)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Potential Fuel for Growth
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Shelf registration. On June 20, the company filed a registration statement with the SEC for a $100 million mixed securities shelf registration, which could include Class A common stock, preferred shares, warrants, and units. The registration statement also included an at the money (ATM) sales agreement, which will allow the company to sell up to $50 million in class A common shares directly into the market.

Bolstering capital availability. We view the registration positively, as it provides the company with flexibility to raise capital opportunistically based on market conditions and the strength of BTM’s share price, which is up approximately 230% year-to-date. Importantly, this added capital access could support strategic initiatives such as tuck-in acquisitions or the purchase of additional kiosks, positioning the company to accelerate its network expansion and long-term revenue growth trajectory.

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Ocugen (OCGN/$0.98 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Merger Agreement Moves NeoCart Into A New Company
Rating: OUTPERFORM

NeoCart Transferred To Form New Regenerative Medicine Company. Ocugen has announced that it has entered into a merger agreement with Carisma Therapeutics to form a new company. Ocugen will transfer its wholly-owned regenerative medicine division, OrthoCellix, including NeoCart, an autologous cartilage implant technology that uses a patient’s cells to repair articular cartilage defects in the knee. The all-stock transaction is valued at $150 million, with Ocugen shareholders owning 90% of the new company.

We Expect The New Company To Accelerate NeoCart Development. Ocugen has been refining the Phase 3 trial design and has planned to start Phase 3 trials during FY2025. NeoCart has received Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy (RMAT) designation, which accelerates BLA review and could lead to faster approval. While the NeoCart data has been strong, NeoCart was a legacy product that was acquired by Ocugen as part of its 2019 reverse merger with Histogenics. Regenerative medicine is outside Ocugen’s main focus, and we believe it can be developed more rapidly by a company focused on regenerative medicine.

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QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.16 | Price Target: $0.23)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Raising Price Target On Favorable Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Solid Q1 Results. The company reported solid Q1 results, with revenue growing 3% over the prior year period to $4.8 million, marking the highest quarterly revenue in the company’s history. Adj. EBITDA of $0.4 million in Q1 was moderately lower than our estimate of $0.5 million estimate. We believe its business pipeline appears to be improving and should gain momentum throughout the year and into 2026. 

Capitalizing less development costs. Notably, the company capitalized less development costs in Q1 than in prior quarters, leading to more development costs expensed in Q1. While this impacted Q1, we believe that margins should improve as the company begins to recognize the revenue from the new business “wins” in future quarters. Furthermore, the company will be expensing development costs at a similar rate to Q1 moving forward.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, June 23, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Nicola Commences 2025 New Craigmont Exploration Drilling

Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.51 | Price Target: $0.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Nicola Commences 2025 New Craigmont Exploration Drilling
Rating: OUTPERFORM

New Craigmont drilling program. Nicola Mining (TSX.V: NIM, OTCQB: HUSIF) has commenced the 2025 exploration and diamond drilling program at its New Craigmont Copper Project, which will entail 4,000 to 5,000 meters of drilling. The program is expected to run from June through September and cost $1.5 million to $2.0 million. The purpose of the 2025 program is to collect geological data for target development for a potential porphyry copper system at New Craigmont.

Identifying targets using artificial intelligence. In collaboration with ALS Geoanalytics (formerly ALS GoldSpot), five priority targets, three of which are included in the 2025 program, were identified using artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods to analyze and correlate geophysical and geochemical data from Nicola’s exploration data. The collaboration harnesses the power of AI to identify high-potential targets which could increase the probability of successful outcomes.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, June 20, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Start to 2025
MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA)/OUTPERFORM – Roche Forms Agreement For THIO Combination Studies
Nutriband (NTRB)/OUTPERFORM – Manufacturing Milestone Allows Development To Move Forward As Expected

Euroseas (ESEA/$45.69 | Price Target: $53)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Strong Start to 2025
Rating: OUTPERFORM

First quarter 2025 financial results. Euroseas Ltd. reported adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share (EPS) of $37.1 million and $3.76, respectively, compared to $24.6 million and $2.66 during the prior year period. Revenue increased due to a higher average number of vessels compared to the same period last year, while operating expenses declined. We had projected adjusted EBITDA and EPS of $34.7 million and $3.35, respectively. Relative to our estimates, revenues were higher, based on an average daily time charter equivalent rate of $27,806, versus our estimate of $26,221, while operating expenses were lower. Vessel operating expenses totaled $12.3 million compared to our estimate of $13.3 million.

Market outlook. The containership sector may face some challenges, including the potential for transit to resume through the Suez Canal, weaker economic conditions due to fluid trade policies, and a high industry order book, which could increase the supply of vessels. However, the company’s strong charter coverage through 2026 could insulate it from the potential for lower rates. Moreover, the feeder and intermediate segments of the market have relatively low order books, and demand for vessels remains strong.

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MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA/$1.8 | Price Target: $14)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Roche Forms Agreement For THIO Combination Studies
Rating: OUTPERFORM

MAIA Makes Its Third Supply Agreement. MAIA announced that it has entered a supply agreement with Genentech/Roche to test THIO (ateganosine) in combination with Tecentriq (atezolizumab, Roche’s PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitor) for the treatment of several hard-to-treat cancers. MAIA now has supply agreements to test THIO in combination with checkpoint inhibitors from three global pharmaceutical companies, which we see as an indicator of interest for future partnerships.

PD-1 or PD-1L? That Is The Question. Checkpoint inhibitors block the interaction of the surface proteins PD-1 (programmed death receptor-1) with PD-1L (the programed death receptor-1 ligand). When the PD-1 receptor binds to the PD-1L ligand, it inhibits the immune response. Checkpoint inhibitors are monoclonal antibody drugs against PD-1 or PD-L1 that block this interaction, allowing cancer cells to be recognized by a patient’s immune system and killed.

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Nutriband (NTRB/$7.79 | Price Target: $15)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Manufacturing Milestone Allows Development To Move Forward As Expected
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Preparing For AVERSA Fentanyl Clinical Testing. Nutriband and its partner Kindeva announced that it has completed commercial manufacturing processes and scale-up for AVERSA Fentanyl, its abuse-deterrent fentanyl patch. This allows the company begin manufacturing clinical supplies and filing the IND (Investigational New Drug application) for the Phase 1 clinical study within the timeframe we anticipated. Only a single Phase 1 study is needed to file the application for marketing approval.

Manufacturing Completion Is A Significant Milestone. This scale-up is a significant step that demonstrates the ability to apply Kindeva’s transdermal patch technology for commercial scale production of AVERSA Fentanyl patches. We expect the IND filing to be completed shortly, with clinical testing to follow as expected.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

GoHealth (GOCO)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)/OUTPERFORM – Mitigates Tariff Risks Much Faster Than Expected

GoHealth (GOCO/$5.46 | Price Target: $25)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Highlights from Noble’s Emerging Growth Virtual Conference. Vijay Kotte, CEO, presented at Noble’s Virtual Equity conference June 4 & 5th. Mr. Kotte highlighted the company’s proprietary technology, consumer-centric Medicare policy platform, and gave an update on recent developments. A rebroadcast is available here.

Purpose-built technology. Mr. Kotte emphasized the company’s use of proprietary machine learning tools alongside licensed agents to tailor recommendations to each consumer’s needs. With Medicare beneficiaries typically choosing from 40–50 plans, this technology plays a key role in efficiently identifying the most suitable options.

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Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE/$1.48 | Price Target: $2.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Mitigates Tariff Risks Much Faster Than Expected
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Solid Q1 results. the company reported Q1 revenue of $57.9 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $3.0 million, both of which were better than our estimates of $56.0 million and a loss of $5.5 million, respectively. Notably, while revenue and adj. EBITDA are both modestly lower than the prior year period; we view the Q1 results favorably, given the company’s ability to manage the uncertain tariff outlook.

Tariff mitigation. The company highlighted that it has been taking steps to reduce its exposure to China, currently roughly 60% of its cost of goods sold. Notably, the company is sourcing from other countries and expects that China will be roughly 25% of its cost of goods by the end of 2025. The company has leadership located in the sourcing countries to ensure product quality. 

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – EMA Allows GEO-MVA To Leapfrog To Phase 3 Trial In EU
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – New Award and Expansion; Raising PT
Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – Stargardt Disease Program Moves To Phase 2/3 Trial
SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – New USMS Transportation Contract

GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$1.32 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
EMA Allows GEO-MVA To Leapfrog To Phase 3 Trial In EU
Rating: OUTPERFORM

GEO-MVA Gets An Accelerated Pathway To European Approval. GeoVax announced that it has received guidance from the EMA (European Medicines Agency) that provides an accelerated path to approval for GEO-MVA, its modified vaccinia ankara (MVA) based vaccine for smallpox/Mpox. It will only be required to conduct immune-bridging and toxicity studies before moving directly to Phase 3. This cuts several years from development time and saves many millions of dollars in clinical expenses.

Only Phase 3 Will Be Needed. The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the EMA stated that only requirements before beginning a Phase 3 study will be a non-clinical immuno-bridging and toxicity studies. No Phase 1 or Phase 2 studies are required. An MAA regulatory application can be submitted after a single, Phase 3 immuno-bridging study against the approved MVA vaccine (Imvanex or Jynneos, from Bavarian Nordic). The proposed endpoints of the study would be demonstration of immunogenicity to show non-inferiority.

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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$41.21 | Price Target: $44)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
New Award and Expansion; Raising PT
Rating: OUTPERFORM

New Award. Kratos was awarded a $25 million task order under the Command and Control System-Consolidated Sustainment and Resiliency contract with the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command to support ground system capabilities for  Evolved Strategic Satellite Communications (ESS). The ESS system will provide the survivable and endurable satellite communications capability for the Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications mission in all operational environments.

Details. The task order has a 34-month period of performance, which began on  March 14th and will conclude on  November 30, 2027. This was accomplished under the C-SAR single-award indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract awarded to Kratos on  November 15, 2023. The C-SAR IDIQ contract has a maximum value of  $579 million to cover task/delivery orders to support operations, sustainment, enhancements, and constellation capacity.

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Ocugen (OCGN/$1.16 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Stargardt Disease Program Moves To Phase 2/3 Trial
Rating: OUTPERFORM

OCU410ST Cleared To Begin Confirmatory Trial. Ocugen announced that the FDA has approved its IND amendment to allow OCU410ST to begin its Phase 2/3 pivotal confirmatory trial. This will become the second Ocugen product to move into a Phase 2/3 confirmatory trial, and keeps the company on schedule to meet its goal of submitting three BLAs in the three years between 2026-28.

Brief Description of Stargardt Disease. Stargardt disease is a rare autosomal recessive disease caused by mutations in the ABCA4 gene in the retina. Progressive loss of photoreceptor cells in the retina typically starts at a young age, leading to blindness. Ocugen has received Orphan Drug designation and Rare Pediatric Disease Designation (RPDD) for diseases associated with ABCA4 diseases, including Stargardt, retinitis pigmentosa 19, and cone-rod dystrophy 3.

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SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.26 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Highlights from Noble’s Emerging Growth Virtual Conference. Lenny Sokolow, Co-CEO, presented at Noble’s Virtual Equity conference June 4 & 5th. Mr. Sokolow discussed the company’s innovative technology, commercial partnerships, and its quest for mandatory standardization with the NEC, among other topics. A rebroadcast is available here.

Mandatory standardization efforts getting a boost. Management remains optimistic about its push for mandatory standardization, citing recent backing from a prominent government safety leader. The company’s “Code Team” expects further support from key safety organizations to advance its ceiling receptacle technology as a regulatory standard.

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The GEO Group (GEO/$24.9 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
New USMS Transportation Contract
Rating: OUTPERFORM

USMS Contract. The GEO Group, through its GEO Transport subsidiary, has entered into a new 5-year contract, including option periods, with the U.S. Marshals Service (USMS) for the provision of secure transportation and contract detention officer services across three service regions covering 26 federal judicial districts and spanning 14 states. The new contract highlights the Company’s diversified service platform, in our view, which provides the Company with numerous growth avenues.

Impact. The new contract is expected to generate up to approximately $147 million over the five-year period, or up to approximately $29 million in annualized revenues per full-year of operations, with margins consistent with GEO’s Managed-Only services contracts, which average approximately 15%.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, June 16, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Superior Group of Companies (SGC)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – A New Addition To The Russell

Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$9.73 | Price Target: $23)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Highlights from Noble’s Emerging Growth Virtual Conference. Tim Herr, Senior Vice President of Finance, presented at Noble’s Virtual Equity conference June 4 & 5th. Mr. Herr highlighted the company’s high-margin leasing model, market opportunity, and strategic initiatives. A rebroadcast is available here.

Attractive unit economics driven by high-margin lease model. Sky Harbour secures long-term airport ground leases at highly favorable rates, often below $1 per square foot annually. Although only 25–33% of each site is convertible into revenue-generating hangar space, that portion can lease for $40 or more per square foot, creating a substantial economic spread.

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Superior Group of Companies (SGC/$9.79 | Price Target: $16)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Highlights its investment merits. On June 5, the company presented at the Noble Virtual Conference to the investment community. The presentation conducted by Michael Benstock, CEO, and Mike Koempel, CFO, highlighted the company’s diverse business segments, favorable history of growth, and solid financial position. A replay of the presentation is available for viewing here.

Diverse business segments. The company operates three distinct business segments: Healthcare Apparel, Branded Products, and Contact Centers. Importantly, all three of the company’s segments have favorable organic growth opportunities, are profitable, and have compelling acquisition target opportunities. Furthermore, the company has a solid history of growth, with consolidated revenue growing at an 8% CAGR from 2019 through 2024.

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Travelzoo (TZOO/$12.5 | Price Target: $28)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
A New Addition To The Russell
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Joining the Russell. On June 10, the company announced that it is expected to join the Russell 3000 Index at market open on June 27. Notably, membership in the Russell 3000 Index, which remains active for one year, provides the company with automatic inclusion in the Russell 2000 Index. 

Improved share visibility. In our view, joining the Russell Indices could provide a meaningful impact for the TZOO shares. Notably, we believe the inclusion in the Russell indices is likely to enhance the company’s share visibility among institutional investors and has the potential to increase trading volume, improve share liquidity, and introduce new investors to the company. As such, we view the development favorably.

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Bit Digital (BTBT) – More News; Updated Model


Friday, July 18, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updated Model. Earlier this week, Bit Digital announced preliminary revenue for 2Q25 in the $24.3-$26.9 million range, which is modestly below our and consensus estimates. The difference, in our view, is likely driven by the push to the right of some contracts. We are not too concerned as of now, as we expect the contracts to come online this year.

Adjusted Numbers. We lowered our 2Q revenue expectation to $25.3 million from a prior $31.6 million, with the biggest change coming in the Cloud Services and Mining line items. Net loss is now at $4.4 million, or $0.02/sh, versus a prior loss of $1.4 million, or $0.01/sh.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Crypto Market Hits $4 Trillion — Bitcoin Leads, Ethereum Follows with ETF Tailwind

The total cryptocurrency market cap has hit a record $4 trillion, led by a surge in Bitcoin past $120,000 and strong momentum in Ethereum, which is up 40% this month. The rally is being driven by ETF inflows, a surge in altcoins, and recent U.S. regulatory developments targeting stablecoins. With institutional interest on the rise, some analysts believe Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in the coming weeks.


Crypto Breaks Records — Again

Digital assets are once again front and center as the total cryptocurrency market capitalization surpassed $4 trillion this week — a new all-time high. Bitcoin (BTC), which makes up about 60% of the market, recently broke above $120,000, while Ethereum (ETH) is up roughly 40% month-to-date, including a 22% gain over the past five days.

The surge is being fueled by renewed investor enthusiasm, inflows into U.S.-listed crypto ETFs, and increased altcoin activity. Ethereum’s rally, in particular, has been boosted by over $1.7 billion in ETF inflows this week, a record for the token.

ETF Inflows and Institutional Interest

U.S.-listed ETFs continue to play a central role in the crypto market’s expansion. Bitcoin funds have seen more than $5 billion in inflows in July alone, while Ether ETFs have drawn nearly $3 billion. These instruments are giving both retail and institutional investors easier access to crypto exposure — and appear to be accelerating price momentum.

Altcoins Join the Party

While Bitcoin and Ethereum are leading headlines, altcoins are also seeing significant upside. Uniswap (UNI), for instance, surged double digits in early trading today. Broader altcoin strength has contributed to the market’s $4T milestone and reflects growing risk appetite among crypto investors.

Regulators Step In — Stablecoins Targeted

Adding to the momentum: policy clarity. For the first time, U.S. lawmakers passed legislation to regulate stablecoins — digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies — introducing both federal and state oversight for what is now a $265 billion market. The move is seen by many as an attempt to legitimize digital dollar substitutes and give institutional investors greater confidence in the space.

Looking Ahead

With sentiment bullish and regulatory frameworks starting to take shape, many market watchers believe the rally could continue. Some analysts are calling for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in the near term, citing continued ETF inflows, reduced selling pressure, and growing demand from global investors.


📈 Historical Context

  • The previous all-time crypto market cap high was $3 trillion in November 2021, before falling below $900 billion during the 2022 bear market.
  • Bitcoin’s all-time low was below $70 in 2013. It hit $20,000 in late 2017, $69,000 in 2021, and now $120,000 in July 2025.
  • Ethereum launched in 2015 at under $1. Its current rally has pushed it back toward all-time highs set in 2021 (~$4,800).
  • The first U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF was approved in January 2024, igniting a fresh wave of institutional participation.

Social Mobile to Acquire Sonim Technologies in $20 Million All-Cash Deal

Deal Enhances Social Mobile’s Position in Enterprise Mobility and Expands Carrier Channel Reach

In a strategic move to strengthen its leadership in the enterprise mobility space, Social Mobile announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the assets and liabilities of Sonim Technologies (NASDAQ: SONM). The all-cash transaction is valued at $20 million, including a $5 million potential earn-out, and is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, pending customary closing conditions.

The acquisition aligns with Social Mobile’s long-term strategy to expand its footprint in the purpose-built enterprise mobility market. Sonim Technologies, known for its rugged mobile solutions trusted by first responders, government agencies, and Fortune 500 companies, brings a complementary product portfolio and proven expertise in mission-critical communications to Social Mobile’s custom enterprise offerings.

“This acquisition creates a powerful synergy between Sonim’s durable, field-tested devices and Social Mobile’s scalable, custom mobility solutions,” said a spokesperson for Social Mobile. “Together, we are better positioned to deliver innovative, secure, and tailored mobility ecosystems that meet the evolving needs of our global clients.”

Sonim’s Board of Directors has approved the agreement.

Founded in 1999, Sonim Technologies has established itself as a leading U.S. provider of ultra-rugged phones, wireless data devices, and accessories, with a distribution footprint across North America, EMEA, and Asia-Pacific. The company’s products are widely adopted in industries where durability, security, and performance are non-negotiable.

For Social Mobile, a Google-certified Android Enterprise Gold Partner, this acquisition not only enhances its enterprise-grade product suite but also significantly expands its sellable addressable market, particularly through carrier channels where Sonim has longstanding relationships.

Social Mobile specializes in developing custom mobility solutions for clients across healthcare, transportation, retail, and defense. With over 15 million devices distributed globally, the company offers end-to-end services from design and deployment to lifecycle management, ensuring product availability and operational efficiency at scale.

As enterprise mobility demand continues to rise, the combined capabilities of Social Mobile and Sonim are expected to unlock new revenue opportunities and deliver greater value to customers looking for rugged, reliable, and custom-built mobile solutions.

V2X (VVX) – An $118 Million Contract


Friday, June 27, 2025

V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Support Services. According to the daily Department of Defense contract announcements, V2X subsidiary Vectrus Systems has been awarded an $118 million cost-plus-fixed-fee undefinitized contract for base support services in support of the Iraq F-16 program. This is another in a long line of recent wins for V2X, demonstrating the V2X value proposition and confirming the significant traction on near-term Foreign Military and International opportunities previously highlighted by management.

Details. The contract provides for base operating support, base life support, and security services. Work will be performed at Martyr BG Ali Flaih Air Base, Iraq, and is expected to be completed by Nov. 30, 2026. This contract involves Foreign Military Sales (FMS) to Iraq. This contract was a sole source acquisition. FMS funds in the amount of $57.8 million are being obligated at the time of award.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Steelcase (SCS) – Post Call Commentary


Friday, June 27, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Mixed Environment. Steelcase continues to face a mixed environment, both on a vertical basis and a geographical basis. The key large corporate customer cohort is doing well, driven by a number of factors such as return to office, but education and government have been hit by funding uncertainties. Germany and France remain sluggish in the key small-to-mid-sized business, but India and China are doing better.

International Actions. Steelcase is taking steps to implement additional cost reduction efforts in Europe, given the weak macroeconomic factors and lower demand in France and Germany. A goal of these actions is to get the International segment back to profitability.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Bit Digital (BTBT) – A Flurry of News


Friday, June 27, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

News. Bit Digital released a flurry of news over the past two days, including a strategic shift in its business strategy, the potential IPO of its WhiteFiber subsidiary, and a $150 million equity offering. Needless to say, a lot to digest. If completed, the announced shifts would result in a significant change to Bit Digital.

Ethereum Focus. Operationally, Bit Digital will exit the bitcoin mining business and transition to become a pure-play Ethereum staking and treasury company. Given the economics of bitcoin mining versus Ethereum staking, we see the rationale in the move. The Company has commenced a strategic alternatives process for the Bitcoin mining operations.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

AZZ (AZZ) – Quarterly Cash Dividend Increased by 17.6%, 1Q FY2026 Financial Results to be Released on July 9


Friday, June 27, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Increase in the quarterly cash dividend. AZZ announced a 17.6% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.20 per share, or $0.80 on an annualized basis, from $0.17 per share, or $0.68 on an annualized basis. The dividend is payable on July 31 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on July 10. In our view, the dividend increase reflects management’s confidence in the company’s near- and long-term outlook.

First Quarter FY 2026 financial results. AZZ will release its first quarter financial results after the market close on Wednesday, July 9. Management will host an investor conference call and webcast on Thursday, July 10, at 11:00 am ET. We look forward to an update regarding the company’s new aluminum coil coating facility in Washington, Missouri, that is ramping up production, along with a review of market fundamentals and the company’s capital allocation priorities.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Metals & Mining Spotlight: Rare Earth Elements

Thursday, June 12, 2025

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures

Demand for rare earth elements expected to grow. Demand for rare earth elements is expected to grow meaningfully through 2030 and beyond, driven by electric vehicles, wind turbines, grid upgrades, and advanced defense technologies. According to the IEA, global rare earth demand could double by 2050 under a net-zero scenario, underscoring the growing strategic relevance in the global energy transition.

China dominates the REE market. According to the 2024 edition of the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, China accounted for 67.9% of rare earth mineral production in 2023 and 38.1% of rare earth mineral reserves, while accounting for most of the midstream and downstream capacity. While mining activity is gradually diversifying, the refining stage remains concentrated. This level of concentration poses a risk to both the U.S. supply chain and national security.

U.S. policymakers seek to reduce dependence on China. U.S. policymakers are increasingly focused on reducing dependence on China for rare earth elements, viewing it as a national security and industrial resilience issue. Recent actions include invoking the Defense Production Act, funding domestic processing projects, and expanding international partnerships through initiatives like the Minerals Security Partnership. Legislative efforts and strategic investments are aimed at reshoring supply chains and building alternative capacity in allied countries such as Canada and Australia.

Necessity is the mother of invention. While the Trump Administration is taking appropriate action and policy momentum is growing, the path to increasing rare earth supply chain independence is complex and will take time. Policymakers may need to work with allies, such as Canada, to promote a North American supply chain that encompasses all aspects of the REE value chain, including upstream, midstream, and downstream. In addition to supportive public policy, private industry will likely need financial support from governments to kick start the effort.

Metals and Mining Spotlight: Rare Earth Elements

Rare earth elements (REEs) are comprised of 15 elements in the lanthanum series, along with scandium and yttrium. While not lanthanides, scandium and yttrium are classified as rare earth elements because they occur within the same ore deposits and share similar chemical properties. While the actual elements may not be rare, it is often difficult to find them in sufficient concentrations for economic extraction, and they require extensive processing. Cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, praseodymium, and promethium are considered light rare earth elements. Europium, gadolinium, and samarium are often referred to as medium rare earth elements, while dysprosium, erbium, holmium, lutetium, terbium, thulium, and ytterbium are considered heavy rare earth elements. We do not classify scandium (Sc) or yttrium (Y) as light, medium, or heavy. Below is a table summarizing the elements and their symbols.

Figure 1: Rare Earth Elements and Atomic Number and Symbol

Source: Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

One of the many uses of rare earth elements is in the production of permanent magnets which are critical components in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and other communication and defense technologies. Neodymium and praseodymium are critical materials in the manufacturing of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets, which have among the highest magnetic strength among commercially available magnets and promote high energy density and efficiency in energy technologies. They are often referred to as NdPr magnets because they generally contain about one-third neodymium, of which some of that can be replaced by praseodymium. While REEs are used for a variety of applications, the highest value REEs are neodymium and praseodymium, which currently drive the value of mixed rare earth concentrates and precipitates. By economic value, neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) is the largest segment of the REE market. NdPr is primarily used in neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets for electric machines, such as electric vehicle (EV) traction motors, wind power generators, drones, robotics, electronics, and other applications. Given the wide-ranging uses of these component materials in critical infrastructure essential for national security and economic growth, the U.S. government has taken an interest in industry concentration.   

Figure 2: Rare Earth Applications

Source: National Energy Technology Laboratory

According to the 2024 edition of the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, China accounted for 67.9% of rare earth mineral production in 2023 and 38.1% of rare earth mineral reserves. Conversely, the United States accounted for 12.2% of rare earth mineral production in 2023 and 1.6% of rare earth mineral reserves.

Figure 3: Rare Earth Metals Production and Reserves

Source: Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2024

Supply Chain and Pricing Overview

The supply chain for rare earths includes upstream, midstream, and downstream components.

Figure 4: Rare Earth Element Supply Chain

Source: Critical Materials Rare Earths Supply Chain: A Situational White Paper, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, April 2020

As illustrated in Figure 4, concentration or beneficiation is an extractive metallurgy process that upgrades the value of mineral ores that contain raw REEs by removing low value minerals and resulting in a higher-grade product such as rare-earth concentrate.

Separation is the process of separating individual REEs from one another in the rare earth oxide (REO) concentrates. Separation of REEs is chemically intensive because the REEs are chemically similar. Processing refers to the conversion of REOs to rare earth metals, such as neodymium metal which can then be used to form alloys. China controls most of the midstream separating and processing capacity.

There is no single price for REEs collectively, but numerous prices for REE oxides and compounds individually. Pricing information for rare earths is opaque and generally available by paid subscription. Public information is generally not comprehensive and generally does not provide detailed information as to quality and origin, which makes comparisons difficult. Below we have provided a pricing sample of the most valuable elements as of June 11, 2025.

Figure 5: Pricing Data for Select Rare Earth Elements (REE)

Source: Strategic Metals Invest

U.S. Rare Earth Element Market

According to the U.S. Department of the Interior, the estimated value of rare-earth compounds and metals imported by the United States in 2023 was $190 million, down 7% from $208 million in 2022. Catalysts represented the leading domestic end use for rare earths, followed by applications in ceramics and glass, metallurgical alloys, polishing, and embedded permanent magnets in finished goods. While rare earth recycling is expected to grow in the coming years, current recovery rates from sources such as batteries and permanent magnets remain limited. The table below provides some statistics associated with the rare earths market in the United States.

Figure 6: United States REE Market Statistics

Source: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024, U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey

Given the United States’ reliance on imports, we think Canadian producers stand to benefit from a shift away from sources in China. As processing capabilities are developed, the U.S. could be an important destination for Canada sourced materials.

Key REE Market Participants

The global rare earth industry remains defined by a limited number of dominant players, most of which are concentrated in China. China Northern Rare Earth Group (SHH: 600111), and China Minmetals are the largest vertically integrated producers, with strong government alignment and control over both upstream mining and midstream separation capacity. These firms benefit from large-scale infrastructure, domestic demand, and preferential access to processing technology that remains restricted from foreign use.

Outside China, Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC, OTC: LYSDY), in Australia is the largest fully integrated producer, with upstream operations at Mount Weld and a separation plant in Malaysia. Lynas is expanding into heavy rare earth processing in Texas through a strategic partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense.

MP Materials, the most significant rare earth materials producer in the United States, completed a business combination with Fortress Value Acquisition Corp., a special purpose acquisition company and began trading on the New York Stock Exchange on November 18, 2020, under the ticker MP. MP Materials owns and operates the Mountain Pass rare earth mine and processing facility in California which opened in 1952 as a uranium producer, pivoted to one of the largest suppliers of rare earth minerals, but closed in 2002 as environmental restrictions and imports made it difficult to compete. The facility underwent various ownership changes and reopened in 2017 under MP Materials’ ownership. It is North America’s only active and scaled rare earth production site and now has a market capitalization of $4.1 billion as of June 11, 2025.

The Mountain Pass mine in California and is the only active rare-earth mine in the United States. The company has restarted oxide production and is building refining and alloying capacity in Texas. MP has signed multi-year offtake agreements with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), including General Motors, aimed at creating a vertically integrated domestic supply chain. However, the company still relies on China to assist in the separation process for some of its output, underscoring the current U.S. capabilities gap.

Additional participants working to expand non-Chinese supply chains include Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU, OTC: ILKAF) and Arafura Rare Earths (ASX: ARU, OTC: ARAFF), both based in Australia. Iluka is building a new facility with support from the Australian government, aimed at handling all stages of rare earth production. Arafura is also developing a new project with backing from international lenders, focused on supplying materials used in magnets for electric motors and other technologies. On the downstream side, magnet production is dominated by firms such as Shin-Etsu (TSE: 4063, OTC: SHECY), Hitachi Metals, and JL MAG (SZSC: 300748, OTC: JMREY), with capacity heavily skewed toward Asia. Efforts among U.S. and allied countries to establish domestic magnet manufacturing are progressing but remain in the early stages.

Additional publicly traded companies that have exposure to rare earths include: M2i Global Inc. (OTC: MTWO), Defense Metals (TSX: DEFN, OTC: DFMTF), Energy Fuels (NYSE: UUUU, TSX: EFR), NioCorp Developments (NASDAQ: NB), Aclara Resources (TSX: ARA, OTC: ARAAF), Mkango Resources (TSXV: MKA, OTC: MKNGF), Ucore Rare Metals (TSXV: UCU, OTC: UURAF), Rainbow Rare Earths (LSE: RBW, OTC: RBWRF), Hastings Technology Metals (ASX: HAS, OTC: HSRMF), Pensana Plc (LSE: PRE, OTC: PNSPF), and Neo Performance Materials (TSX: NEO, OTC: NOPMF). 

U.S Policymakers Take Action

China dominates the production of many critical minerals, including rare earth elements. There appears to be an awakening among U.S. policy makers of the dangers of dependence on foreign sources for critical minerals, especially those that are adversarial to the United States. We believe a shift is underway to source REEs from countries that are friendly to the United States, including Canada. As part of its strategy to ensure secure and reliable supplies of critical minerals, the U.S. Department of the Interior identified 35 critical minerals, including the rare earth elements group. The U.S. Government is planning to fund rare earths projects to reduce reliance on China. In January 2022, bipartisan legislation was introduced, the Restoring Essential Energy and Security Holdings Onshore for Rare Earths Act, to protect the U.S. from the threat of rare-earth element supply disruptions, encourage domestic production, and reduce reliance on China. REEs are found in mineral deposits such as bastnaesite and monazite, the two largest sources of REEs. Bastnaesite, a carbonate-fluoride mineral, typically contains cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, and praseodymium. Monazite, a phosphate mineral, typically contains cerium, lanthanum, neodymium, and samarium. Rare earths are mined domestically in the United States. Bastnaesite is extracted at the mine in Mountain Pass, California.

Since January 2025, the Trump administration has significantly expanded its strategic focus on rare earth supply chain security. In April, an executive order initiated an investigation into whether U.S. dependence on foreign sources of rare earths constitutes a national security threat. An additional order opened up new offshore exploration zones for critical minerals, including seabed areas believed to contain rare earth and battery metals.

Furthermore, the administration has invoked the Defense Production Act to allocate capital and permit support to midstream and downstream segments of the rare earth supply chain. MP Materials began producing rare earth metals at its Texas facility, while Lynas advanced its U.S. processing plant with support from the Department of Defense. These efforts are part of a broader strategy to rebuild U.S. capabilities across the rare earth value chain.

International partnerships have also gained momentum. The U.S. is advancing cooperation with Australia, Canada, and Ukraine to secure alternative sources of supply and coordinate project financing through the Minerals Security Partnership. A bilateral agreement with Ukraine is expected to facilitate exploration and development of new deposits, while Australia remains a primary ally for both upstream mining and technical collaboration.

Outlook

The rare earth industry is entering a period of strong growth and growing strategic relevance. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), magnet-grade rare earth demand could double by 2050, and mining projects could rise by 52% by 2040, under current policy (IEA, Critical Minerals Report, 2024). These forecasts are driven by growth in electric vehicle drivetrains, offshore wind development, and precision defense systems, all of which rely heavily on rare earth magnets for performance, efficiency, and miniaturization. As a result, rare earths have transitioned from niche industrial inputs to core strategic resources.

Figure 7: REE Demand Outlook and Mining Requirements (kt REE)

Source: Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024, International Energy Agency (IEA)

We note that the IEA’s forecasts are based on three scenarios. These include: 1) the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), 2) the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and 3) the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE). The Stated Policies Scenario is based on current policy settings. The Announced Pledges Scenario assumes that governments will meet all climate-related commitments they have announced, including net zero emissions targets. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario represents a pathway for the global energy sector to achieve net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. These are summarized, of course, and readers may consult the IEA’s report for a more detailed description.  

In the short term, challenges will continue to shape how supply chains evolve outside of China. Most new projects in Western countries face long approval timelines due to environmental reviews, local opposition, and infrastructure gaps. While government funding and procurement support are improving, the limited availability of midstream processing remains a key constraint. 

In our view, rare earths are evolving from niche industrial inputs to foundational resources for advanced economies. Although the industry currently operates at a scale that lags its growing strategic importance, recent policy momentum and expanded investment across allied nations are setting the stage for meaningful transformation. Looking ahead, we expect a more balanced and resilient global supply chain to emerge—anchored by deepening cooperation between the United States, Canada, Australia, and European partners. While China will remain a major player in the near term, the diversification of supply chains is gaining traction, signaling a shift toward greater self-sufficiency and long-term security among like-minded nations.


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All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “we”, “us”, or “our” are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc.(“Noble”) and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.

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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE

Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87

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RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION

Independence Of View
All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.

Receipt of Compensation
No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed in the public
appearance and/or research report.

Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest
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Noble Capital Markets Emerging Growth Virtual Equity Conference 2025 – Presentation Replays

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Xcel Brands (XELB) – Focused On Licensing Development


Wednesday, April 02, 2025

Xcel Brands, Inc. 1333 Broadway 10th Floor New York, NY 10018 United States https:/Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 84 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Robert W. D’Loren Chairman, Pres & CEO 1.27M N/A 1958 Mr. James F. Haran CFO, Principal Financial & Accou

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Industry dynamics. The QVC Group recently announced that it is laying off 900 employees as part of its effort to become a live social shopping company. Notably, while we don’t anticipate QVC will stop live selling on traditional TV, the increased focus on social commerce is illustrative of changing consumer viewing habits. In our view, XCEL Brands is well positioned to benefit from shift in viewing habits toward streaming alternatives.

Valuable expertise. XCEL Brands is a veteran in the live selling space and has extensive experience working with celebrities to help bring their products to market and help them sell. In our view, the company is well positioned to provide celebrities with expertise both in traditional TV and social commerce selling, or live streaming.


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Alumis and ACELYRIN Announce Definitive Merger Agreement in All-Stock Transaction

Key Points:
– Alumis and ACELYRIN have agreed to an all-stock merger, creating a well-capitalized biopharmaceutical company focused on advancing immunology treatments.
– The combined company will have approximately $737 million in cash and securities, supporting multiple clinical trial readouts and operations into 2027.
– Alumis will retain its name and leadership team, with an expanded board including two ACELYRIN members, and the merger is expected to close in Q2 2025.

Alumis Inc. (NASDAQ: ALMS) and ACELYRIN (NASDAQ: SLRN) have announced a definitive merger agreement, combining the two clinical-stage biopharmaceutical companies in an all-stock transaction aimed at advancing immunology treatments and optimizing clinical outcomes.

Strategic Rationale and Financial Position

The merger will create a strongly capitalized company with a combined cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities position of approximately $737 million as of year-end 2024. This financial strength is expected to support the advancement of the companies’ combined pipeline through multiple key clinical data readouts and fund operating expenses and capital expenditures into 2027.

The combined company will leverage its track record in research and development and a proprietary data and analytics platform to drive innovation in immune-mediated diseases.

Martin Babler, President, CEO, and Chairman of Alumis, stated: “Through this combination with ACELYRIN, Alumis will have the financial flexibility and runway to advance an expanded late-stage pipeline, now including lonigutamab, and build commercial capabilities. Since completing our IPO, Alumis has operated with speed and rigor, and the multiple development milestones expected in 2025 and 2026, coupled with potential additional indications for ESK-001, represent exciting breakthroughs for our patients and value-driving opportunities for the combined company’s stockholders. As we move forward together, we will maintain financial discipline and a flexible capital allocation strategy with the goal of maximizing the value of our highly differentiated portfolio.”

Pipeline Highlights

  • Alumis’ ESK-001: A next-generation, allosteric TYK2 inhibitor, currently in Phase 3 ONWARD trials for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis (PsO) and Phase 2b LUMUS trials for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Key Phase 2 52-week updates expected in 2025, with Phase 3 topline data in H1 2026.
  • Alumis’ A-005: A CNS-penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor, targeting neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases like multiple sclerosis (MS) and Parkinson’s Disease. A Phase 2 trial is set to begin in H2 2025.
  • ACELYRIN’s Lonigutamab: A subcutaneous anti-IGF-1R therapy with best-in-class potential for thyroid eye disease (TED), currently under Phase 2 evaluation.

Transaction Terms & Leadership Structure

  • Exchange Ratio: ACELYRIN stockholders will receive 0.4274 shares of Alumis common stock for each ACELYRIN share owned.
  • Ownership Breakdown: 55% Alumis stockholders, 45% ACELYRIN stockholders post-transaction.
  • Leadership: The combined company will operate under the Alumis name and be led by Alumis’ executive team, strengthened by key ACELYRIN professionals and medical experts.
  • Board Expansion: The board will grow to nine members, including two from ACELYRIN.
  • Closing Timeline: The transaction is expected to close in Q2 2025, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.

This merger brings together two companies dedicated to transforming immunology treatments, strengthening their pipeline, and delivering long-term value to patients and investors alike.