Noble Capital Markets Research Morning Call

Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, May 2, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 1Q25; But Uncertainties Limit Visibility Beyond 2Q25
Cumulus Media (CMLS)/MARKET PERFORM – Skating On Thin Ice
GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Reported With Pipeline Strategy Updates
Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Keeping Its Focus On The Bullseye

ACCO Brands (ACCO/$3.86 | Price Target: $12)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Solid 1Q25; But Uncertainties Limit Visibility Beyond 2Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Solid 1Q25. In the historically smallest quarter, ACCO reported revenue in-line with guidance while exceeding adjusted EPS guidance during the quarter. However, increased market uncertainties driven by global trade dynamics is resulting in limited visibility beyond 2Q25. Management’s strategic management of its supplier base and ability to accelerate supply chain moves should lessen the impact of tariffs.

1Q25 Results. Revenue of $317.4 million was within management’s $315-$325 million guidance. We were at $315 million. Revenue was down 11.6% y-o-y, with comp sales off 8.3%. Adverse forex reduced revenue by 3.3%. The revenue decline was driven by softer global demand for certain office products and gaming accessories, partially offset by growth in computer accessories. Gross margin improved 60bp y-o-y to 31.4%.

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Cumulus Media (CMLS/$0.19)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Skating On Thin Ice
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

Q1 revenue weaker than expected. Total company revenues declined 6.4% to $187.3 million, weaker than our 4.8% decline and $190.4 million estimates, respectively. Due to previous cost reductions, the company achieved our adj. EBITDA estimate, $3.5 million versus our estimate of $3.4 million. 

Digital Marketing Services (DMS) revenue surges. DMS revenues, which account for roughly 30% of the digital segment, increased a strong 30%. Management indicated that DMS Q2 revenue pacings have accelerated to 35% growth. Notably, the digital segment accounted for 20% of total company revenues. 

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GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$0.99 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
1Q25 Reported With Pipeline Strategy Updates
Rating: OUTPERFORM

First Quarter Included Contract Revenues. GeoVax reported a 1Q25 loss of $5.4 million or $(0.45) per share, a smaller loss than we had expected. The quarter included $1.6 million in Contract Revenue from the BARDA contract in preparation for the Phase 2 trial. Since the contract was cancelled on April 11, 2025, the 2Q25 results will include some final contract work. Cash on March 31, 2025, was $7.4 million.

CM04S1 Continues Development With Focus On Immunocompromised Patients. The current focus of CM04S1 development is in immunocompromised patients, a population estimated at 40 million patients in the US alone. Data from the Phase 1 and Phase 2 clinical trials for CM04S1 was presented at the 25th World Vaccine Congress. The two Phase 2 trials in chronic lymphocytic leukemia and stem cell transplants continue to enroll patients, while the Phase 2 Healthy Adult Booster trial is expected to report data during 2Q25.

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Xcel Brands (XELB/$2.43 | Price Target: $15)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Keeping Its Focus On The Bullseye
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Collaboration with a UTG. United Trademark Group (UTG) made a $9 million strategic investment in Xcel Brands and announced a strategic partnership. The investment bolstered the company’s balance sheet and provided more favorable debt covenant terms. In addition, UTG has performance warrants, exercisable over 7 years, that could bring in an additional $13 million if exercised. 

Increased financial flexibility. United Trademark Group (UTG) took a $9 million strategic investment in the form of a Paid In Kind (PIK) loan. UTG was also issued performance based warrants that could add $13 million, if exercised. We believe that the funds will be used to support the growth of recently announced brands and provide financial flexibility to acquire or develop additional brands. 

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, May 1, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Gaining Momentum
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Some Favorable Tailwinds?
Nutriband (NTRB)/OUTPERFORM – Fiscal 2025 Reported With Product Progress Updates
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Some More Awards

Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.19 | Price Target: $0.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Gaining Momentum
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Private placement financing. Aurania recently closed the first tranche of its previously announced non-brokered private placement financing of up to 5,000,000 units at a price of C$0.30 per unit for gross proceeds of up to C$1,500,000. An aggregate of 3,182,899 units were sold under the first tranche for gross proceeds of C$954,869.70. Dr. Keith Barron, Chairman, President, and CEO, acquired 1,000,000 units under the offering and owns or exercises control over 47,672,635 common shares, 1,752,992 options, and 12,399,135 warrants representing 44.41% and 50.88% of the company’s issued and outstanding common shares on a non-diluted and partially diluted basis, respectively. Aurania expects to close the final tranche of its non-brokered private placement on or around May 5.

Loan agreement. Dr. Keith Barron has also agreed to provide a loan of up to US$2,094,500 to the company. The loan will be advanced from time to time in mutually agreed upon principal amounts. The loan is unsecured and bears interest at 2% per annum. The proceeds are expected to be used to fund Aurania’s remaining 2024 mineral concession fees in Ecuador, which are due on May 1.

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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$33.78 | Price Target: $38)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some Favorable Tailwinds?
Rating: OUTPERFORM

A Trillion Dollard Defense Budget? House Republicans have released legislation that would increase Pentagon spending by $150 billion. The proposal was approved by the House Armed Services Committee and, when combined with the already approved government fiscal year 2025 $886 billion defense budget, the added dollars would bring defense spending to more than $1 trillion for the first time. A significant portion of the recent budget increases target areas in Kratos’ wheelhouse, in our opinion, which could provide additional upside to the Company.

Missile Defense. Approximately $25 billion of the $150 billion proposed increase would be earmarked for the Golden Dome missile defense initiative. Recall, Golden Dome would be a shield intended to protect the continental U.S. against advanced missiles. Golden Dome is another project that aligns with Kratos’ capabilities, in our view.

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Nutriband (NTRB/$6.88 | Price Target: $13)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Fiscal 2025 Reported With Product Progress Updates
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Fiscal Year 2025 Reported. Nutriband reported its financial results for FY2025, ended January 31, 2025, with a 4Q25 loss of $5.5 million or ($0.50) per share and a loss of $10.5 million or $(0.99) per share. Preparations for the abuse-deterrence clinical testing continue, with an NDA expected toward 4Q25 or early 2026. As of January 31, 2025, the cash balance was $4.3 million.

Revenue For The Pocono Pharmaceutical Division Met Expectations. The Pocono Pharmaceutical division revenue for FY2025 was $2.1 million, with 4Q25 consistent with previous quarters. Gross margin improved in 4Q25 to 45% of sales, the highest level of the year. Nutriband has extended its contract manufacturing collaboration with KT tape, the kinesiology tape company, with modest growth in our projections for FY2026.

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V2X (VVX/$49.76 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some More Awards
Rating: OUTPERFORM

New Awards. V2X continues to win new awards, and if current Defense budget proposals resulting in the first $1 trillion budget for fiscal year 2025 move to fruition, the award environment should remain target rich for the Company

Navy Contract. Earlier this week, the Company was awarded a $103 million contract by the U.S. Navy for Contractor Logistics Support (CLS) maintenance of C-26 aircraft. Under this contract, V2X will continue providing comprehensive CLS support, including aircraft engineering, upgrades, maintenance, and modifications. The award reinforces V2X’s role as the best-value provider for this critical mission, in our view.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 30, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – First Quarter Results Above Our Estimates; Stronger Second Half Expected
Perfect (PERF)/OUTPERFORM – Q1 Revenue Growth Demonstrates Resilience
Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – Off To A Solid Start

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$27.07 | Price Target: $31)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
First Quarter Results Above Our Estimates; Stronger Second Half Expected
Rating: OUTPERFORM

First quarter financial results. Alliance reported first quarter adjusted EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $159.9 million and $0.57, respectively, compared to $238.4 million and $1.21 during the prior year period. We had projected EBITDA and EPU of $143.8 million and $0.48. While total revenue of $540.5 million was just shy of our $541.1 million estimate, we underestimated coal sales and overstated transportation revenue. Consequently, transportation expense was also overstated. Total operating expenses were $446.2 million compared to our $462.3 million forecast.

Corporate outlook for 2025 and 2026. Management’s guidance for 2025 was little changed, except for increasing the range for total coal sales tonnage, increasing expense as a percentage of oil & gas royalty revenue, depreciation expense, and lowering net interest expense expectations. For 2026, management expects the average coal sales price per ton to trend lower. Due to higher-priced, multi-contracts rolling off, the average sales price per ton could be 4% to 5% below the midpoint of ARLP’s 2025 guidance. We think planned 2025 long wall moves and actions to improve productivity and cost effectiveness could help offset lower prices.

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Perfect (PERF/$1.92 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Q1 Revenue Growth Demonstrates Resilience
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Solid Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue growth of 13.4% year over year to $16.0 million, roughly in line with our estimate of $16.2 million. Adj. EBITDA of $0.9 million was better than our estimate of $0.4 million.

B2C momentum. The strong quarterly revenue growth was driven by the company’s B2C segment. Importantly, the company is in the midst of optimizing pricing for its popular beauty app subscription and recently introduced a higher margin premium subscription plan. We believe the B2C segment is poised for continued revenue growth throughout 2025.

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Travelzoo (TZOO/$16.12 | Price Target: $28)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Off To A Solid Start
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Reports solid Q1 results. Q1 revenues accelerated, up 5.3%, from the 2.2% decline in the fourth quarter, reflecting the early adoption of the company’s transformative migration toward a subscription model. Results were in line with expectations, with adj. EBITDA of $4.4 million and positive free cash flow generation of $3.3 million. 

Revenues expected to accelerate. Management indicated that second quarter revenue growth is expected to accelerate, double the rate of the first quarter’s 5.3%. The enhanced revenue growth reflects the success of converting legacy subscribers to a paid subscription. The paid subscription began in the first quarter of 2025, with subscription revenues recognized pro-ratably over the subscription period. As such, we expect that revenue growth will accelerate as it adds subscriptions throughout the year. 

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 29, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – April News Roundup

FAT Brands (FAT/$2.69 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
April News Roundup
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Fazoli’s Securitization. FAT Brands amended the Fazoli’s whole business securitization credit facility. The amendments extended the repayment and call dates from January 2025 to July 2026 and from July 2023 to October 2025, respectively, while also relaxing certain covenants, providing FAT greater operational flexibility. The new agreement also permits FAT to sell off the corporate-owned Fazoli locations.

France Growth. Also, during the month, FAT announced a new partnership to expand Fatburger across France, with the opening of 30 units over the next three years, with five units expected to be opened in 2026. FAT’s partner has a vast amount of experience within the restaurant space and successfully operates their own restaurant franchise in the country.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 28, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – Reports 4Q25 Results

MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.79)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Reports 4Q25 Results
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

4Q25 Results. Revenue totaled $118.8 million, reflecting initial sales of TerraSante product. We were at $25,000. Net loss totaled $1.2 million, or a loss of $0.02/sh, in line with our estimate. For the full year, MustGrow reported revenue of $398,018 and a net loss of $4.9 Million, or a loss of $0.09/sh, also inline with our expectations.

Capital Raise. In mid-January, MustGrow raised $2.585 million of capital through the sale of convertible debentures. Combined with the $3 million of cash at year-end, we believe the Company has sufficient liquidity until significant revenue begins, which we expect this year.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, April 25, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Gaining Market Share

FreightCar America (RAIL/$6.45 | Price Target: $13.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Gaining Market Share
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Robust first quarter order activity. During the first quarter ending on March 31, FreightCar America received orders for a total of 1,250 railcars valued at approximately $141 million. Based on the Railway Supply Institute’s American Railway Car Institute Committee (ARCI) first quarter 2025 reporting statistics, industry orders totaled 5,085 railcars, while deliveries amounted to 7,810. Freight Car’s orders represented approximately 25% of all new railcars ordered during the quarter and 36% of FreightCar America’s addressable market.

2025 corporate guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 4,500 to 4,900, revenue is expected to be in the range of $530 million to $595 million, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $43 to $49 million. Our current 2025 estimates include railcar deliveries of 4,700 units, revenue of $562.5 million, and EBITDA of $45.4 million. While first quarter orders of 1,250 was above our estimate of 1,000, our estimate for first quarter deliveries is unchanged.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 24, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Cumulus Media (CMLS)/MARKET PERFORM – Not Good Foreshadowing

Cumulus Media (CMLS/$0.27)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Not Good Foreshadowing
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

Plans to delist. The company announced plans to move its stock from the Nasdaq to the OTC
market effective May 2nd. Cumulus received a delisting warning a month earlier from Nasdaq
for not meeting a $10 million minimum stockholders’ equity requirement. The company
determined that will not appeal given the time, effort and cost of to remain on Nasdaq.

Ticker remains CMLS. The company has applied and qualified to list on the OTC Markets’
OTCQB market tier and expects that its shares will trade at the open on May 2 under its current
trading symbol CMLS. The company indicated that it plans to continue to file periodic and other
required reports with the SEC.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Better Than Expected FY 2025 Financial Results; Strong Start to FY 2026
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – Taking Measures To Remain Listed
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – A Leader in Vibe Dining, Initiating Research Coverage

ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$2.87 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
A Leader in Vibe Dining, Initiating Research Coverage
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Initiating Research Coverage. We are initiating research coverage of The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (NASDAQ:STKS) with an Outperform rating and a $5 price target. The ONE Group is an international restaurant company that develops and operates upscale and polished casual, high-energy restaurants and lounges and provides hospitality management services for hotels, casinos and other high-end venues both in the U.S. and internationally.

A Leader in Vibe Dining.  ONE Group is a leader in the “Vibe Dining” subsegment. Vibe Dining is characterized by a quality culinary experience complimented with an engaging social scene, such as DJ’s and dancing. While not a new theme, Vibe Dining is being pushed by a generation of consumers looking for more than just food for their dollar. As a category, Vibe Dining is projected to continue to grow at above average rates.

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AZZ (AZZ/$80.06 | Price Target: $112)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Better Than Expected FY 2025 Financial Results; Strong Start to FY 2026
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Fourth quarter and full year financial results. For fiscal year (FY) 2025, AZZ reported adjusted net income of $156.8 million or $5.20 per share compared to $132.8 million or $4.53 per share during FY 2024 and our estimate of $155.9 million or $5.17 per share. Compared to FY 2024, sales increased 2.6% to $1.578 billion. AZZ generated a 24.3% gross margin as a percentage of sales compared to 23.6% during the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 4.3% to $347.9 million, representing 22.0% of sales compared to 21.7% of sales in FY 2024. Adjusted net income and EPS during the fourth quarter of FY 2025 were $29.6 million and $0.98, respectively, compared to our estimates of $28.8 million and $0.95 per share.

Updating estimates. We project FY 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS of $1.676 billion, $381.7 million, and $5.83 respectively. Our FY 2026 estimates reflect a gross margin of $408.7 million or 24.4% of sales. We have assumed the company accelerates debt repayment to lower interest expense to offset the reduction of equity in earnings of unconsolidated subsidiaries caused by the AVAIL JV’s sale of its Electric Products business.

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Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.55)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Taking Measures To Remain Listed
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

Listing requirements not met. The company initially received a notification that it was not in compliance with the Nasdaq’s minimum stockholder equity requirement in October 2024. The company subsequently submitted a plan to regain compliance in February 2025 and was granted an extension until April 16, 2025. However, on April 16, the company had not regained compliance and received a letter of determination from Nasdaq on April 17. 

Letter of determination. The letter of determination stated the company did not meet the terms of its extension, due to a noncomplete capital raise that was laid out in its plan to regain compliance, and ultimately did not meet the stockholders’ equity requirement. We believe that the company is working on capital raising initiatives, which should put the company back in compliance. The Class A Common stock is scheduled to be suspended from trading at market open on April 28. The company has filed for a hearing which should delay the delisting process for at least 35 days.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Adj. Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Exceed Expectations
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Share Consolidation, Updating Estimates
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 1Q25 New Business Wins
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Some LOGCAP Extensions

AZZ (AZZ/$77.62 | Price Target: $112)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Adj. Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Exceed Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Fourth quarter and full year financial results. For fiscal year (FY) 2025, AZZ reported adjusted net income of $156.8 million or $5.20 per share compared to $132.8 million or $4.53 per share during FY 2024 and our estimate of $155.9 million or $5.17 per share. Compared to FY 2024, sales increased 2.6% to $1.578 billion. AZZ generated a 24.3% gross margin as a percentage of sales compared to 23.6% during the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 4.3% to $347.9 million, representing 22.0% of sales compared to 21.7% of sales in FY 2024. Adjusted net income and EPS during the fourth quarter of FY 2025 were $29.6 million and $0.98, respectively, compared to our estimates of $28.8 million and $0.95 per share.

Debt reduction. During FY 2025, AZZ generated operating cash flow of $249.9 million and reduced debt by $110 million. Management expects to accelerate debt repayments with proceeds from the AVAIL transaction which is expected to close in the first quarter of FY 2026. We estimate FY 2026 debt repayments could approach $300 million. At the end of FY 2025, AZZ’s net leverage was below 2.5x trailing twelve months EBITDA.

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InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$5.42 | Price Target: $18)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Share Consolidation, Updating Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Share consolidation. As of April 21, 2025, InPlay Oil shares are trading on a post-consolidation basis, with 27,939,437 common shares outstanding. The terms of the share consolidation were one post-consolidation common share per six pre-consolidation common shares. Fractional shares resulting from the consolidation were rounded down to the nearest whole number.

Updating estimates and price target. We are updating our 2025 estimates to reflect fewer shares outstanding and lower crude oil price estimates. For 2025, we are lowering our oil and gas revenue and earnings per share estimates to C$318.7 million and C$1.34, from C$333.5 million and C$1.46, both adjusted for the share consolidation. Moreover, we have lowered our adjusted funds flow (AFF) to C$149.5 million from C$161.6 million. We are maintaining our production estimate of 18,750 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) post the Pembina acquisition, which averages 15,816 boe/d for the full-year 2025.

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NN (NNBR/$1.71 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Solid 1Q25 New Business Wins
Rating: OUTPERFORM

1Q25 New Business Wins. NN achieved 1Q25 new business wins of $16.4 million, a solid performance given the state of the economy, in our view. In the same period last year, new business wins totaled $17.2 million. NN is well on its way to meeting its 2025 goal of $65 million in new business wins.

Diversified Backlog and Pipeline. New business wins for the quarter were focused on electrical and power products, medical, non-automotive industrial products, and automotive products. Roughly half of the nearly $700 million pipeline is in these targeted areas.

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V2X (VVX/$46.83 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Some LOGCAP Extensions
Rating: OUTPERFORM

LOGCAP Extensions. V2X has been notified by the U.S. Army that it will extend the current period of performance (PoP) for the various task orders under the LOGCAP V ID/IQ contract to support U.S. military operations worldwide. The Company’s Kuwait Task Order (TO), Iraq Task Order, and INDOPACOM Task Order are scheduled to extend through June 2030. Given the size of LOGCAP V, we view this as a significant positive for the Company.

SAM.gov. According to the filing on SAM.gov, the Army sought to increase the overall PoP for the current LOGCAP performance task orders (PTOs) to match the PoPs of the aligned Set the Theater (STT) task orders. The LOGCAP STT TOs were awarded as a base year plus nine one-year option periods.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 21, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – First Tranche of Private Placement Financing Closed
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – 2024 Financial Results In line with Expectations, 2025 Outlook

Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.2 | Price Target: $0.55)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
First Tranche of Private Placement Financing Closed
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Private placement financing. Aurania Resources Ltd. closed the first tranche of its previously announced non-brokered private placement financing of up to 5,000,000 units at a price of C$0.30 per unit for gross proceeds of up to C$1,500,000. An aggregate of 3,182,899 units were sold under the first tranche for gross proceeds of C$954,869.70. Dr. Keith Barron, CEO and a director, acquired 1,000,000 units under the offering and owns or exercises control over 47,672,635 common shares, 1,752,992 options, and 12,399,135 warrants representing 44.41% and 50.88% of the company’s issued and outstanding common shares on a non-diluted and partially diluted basis, respectively.

Terms of the offering. Each unit is composed of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.55 for a period of 24 months following the closing of the first tranche. To accommodate demand, Aurania may increase the size of the offering by up to 25% and expects to close the remaining tranche(s) on or around April 24.

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Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.27 | Price Target: $2.3)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
2024 Financial Results In line with Expectations, 2025 Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Full-year 2024 financial results. Hemisphere Energy reported full-year net income and earnings per share of C$33.1 million and C$0.33, respectively, slightly above our estimates of C$32.3 million and C$0.32. The variance is mainly due to stronger oil pricing of $79.48, compared to our estimate of $76.31. Year-over-year, oil and natural gas revenue increased ~18% to C$79.7 million from C$67.7 million. This increase was driven by increased production and more robust pricing of 3,436 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) and $79.48, respectively, compared to 3,125 boe/d and $74.07. Likewise, adjusted funds flow (AFF) increased 16% in 2024 to C$45.8 million from C$39.4 million in 2023. We had forecast AFF of C$45.4 million.

Updating estimates. Based on lower crude oil price estimates, we are lowering our 2025 net income and earnings per share estimates to C$30.3 million and C$0.29, respectively, from C$37.2 million and C$0.37. Additionally, we are decreasing our adjusted funds flow estimate to C$42.9 million from C$50.6 million. We are maintaining our 2025 average daily production estimate of 3,900 boe/d, an increase of ~14% over 2024.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 17, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Strategic Partnership with RWE Clean Energy
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Term Loan Refi Completed
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – A Sanguine Outlook For 2025

Comstock (LODE/$2.16)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Strategic Partnership with RWE Clean Energy
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

Partnership with RWE. Comstock Metals entered into a Master Services Agreement with RWE Clean Energy, the U.S. subsidiary of RWE, which operates a renewable energy portfolio of approximately 10 gigawatts. It is the third largest owner and operator of onshore wind, solar, and battery storage in the United States. Comstock Metals will provide RWE with recycling, decommissioning, and logistics services for their U.S. solar installations to ensure a zero-landfill solution for 100% of the recovered solar panel materials.

Industry-scale facility. Comstock Metals has operated a demonstration-scale solar panel recycling facility since 2024. The company generates revenue through service fees for decommissioning, tipping fees for receiving and processing end-of-life solar panels, and offtake sales of high-value recycled materials, including aluminum, copper, glass, and concentrated precious metals. Comstock expects to spend $6 million to build its first large-scale facility in 2025. The project will be commissioned in 2026 and will scale in two phases, with initial capacity of up to 50,000 tons annually by 2026, and then to 100,000 tons annually.

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NN (NNBR/$1.63 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Term Loan Refi Completed
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Term Loan Refi. NN announced the successful completion of its term loan refinancing. The new term loan has multiple improved operational features that management expects will enable the Company to improve and grow faster. Combined with the $65 million ABL refinancing announced in January, yesterday’s announcement sets the stage for a new chapter for NN, in our view.

Details. Although we are awaiting an 8-K filing to drill down into all the terms of the new financing, the term loan is $118 million, with a 2030 maturity. There is a $10 million add-on feature for certain borrowing and improved leverage and liquidity covenants. However, the interest rates are slightly higher than the previous term loan. Marathon Asset Management is the new lender.

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QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.15 | Price Target: $0.2)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
A Sanguine Outlook For 2025
Rating: OUTPERFORM

2024 in the rearview mirror. The company reported Q4 revenue of $4.7 million and adj. EBITDA of $0.2 million, both of which were largely in line with our estimates of $4.6 million and $0.3 million, respectively. Notably, both revenue and adj. EBITDA for 2024 decreased from the prior year, which was largely attributed to key clients facing difficulties during the year and reduced spending or discontinued services entirely. 

2025 revenue outlook appears more promising. Management indicated that the Q1 revenue outlook should significantly improve, with Q1 expected to achieve the highest quarterly revenue in company’s history, near $5 million. Notably, management indicated that it is currently not affected by the geopolitical environment or the impact of tariffs. As such, it remains sanguine about the opportunity for the company to achieve at least $20 million in revenue for full year 2025. 

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – Not Getting Revenue Traction

QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.15 | Price Target: $0.26)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Not Getting Revenue Traction
Rating: OUTPERFORM

In-line results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $4.7 million and adj. EBITDA of $0.2 million, both of which were largely in line with our estimates of $4.6 million and $0.3 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. Notably, both revenue and adj. EBITDA for 2024 decreased from the prior year, which was largely attributed to key clients facing difficulties during the year and reducing spending or discontinuing services entirely.

A difficult year. During the company’s Q3 earnings call, management highlighted the loss of a large client and indicated that some of its other clients are facing financial hardship, even though management indicated that there was a strong pipeline, albeit with a long ramp-up period. As such, the year-end results were largely expected to be lackluster. 

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – First Cerebras Systems Location Secured
GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – Stop Work Order Received For Project NextGen Trial – No Impact On Other Programs

Bit Digital (BTBT/$1.85 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
First Cerebras Systems Location Secured
Rating: OUTPERFORM

New Tier 3 Site. Bit Digital announced that it has secured the rights to a new data center site in Saint-Jérôme, Québec (to be known as Montreal-3). This site, which is under development, will support the previously announced 5MW colocation agreement with Cerebras Systems, a leader in generative AI infrastructure.

Details. The facility spans approximately 202,000 square feet on 7.7 acres. In addition to the current Cerebras agreement, the facility has future expansion potential, subject to utility approvals. The transaction was executed under a lease-to-own structure, which includes a fixed-price purchase option exercisable within 12 months. The lease term is 20 years, with two 5-year extension options. The facility is being retrofitted to Tier 3 standards. Bit Digital expects development costs to total approximately CAD $55 million (approximately $40MM USD), and a targeted go-live date of July 2025.

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GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$1.07 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Stop Work Order Received For Project NextGen Trial – No Impact On Other Programs
Rating: OUTPERFORM

GeoVax Has Received A Stop Work Order For The Phase 2b Trial. GeoVax has received a Stop Work order for its BARDA-sponsored Phase 2b trial testing of CM04S1 for COVID-19. We have known about other Project NextGen-funded COVID-19 trials that were halted, but hoped the CM04S1 program would continue.

Background On The Phase 2 Trial. In June 2024, BARDA (an office within HHS) selected CM04S1 for a Phase 2b trial to test efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety for protection against COVID-19 as part of Project NexGen. We had expected GeoVax to receive about $25 million for its work on trial design and supplies to be receive

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 14, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Moving Up in the League Table

InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$0.93 | Price Target: $3.75)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Moving Up in the League Table
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Transformative acquisition closed. InPlay Oil recently closed its acquisition of Cardium light oil focused assets in the Pembina area of Alberta from Obsidian Energy for net consideration of approximately $301 million. The transaction more than doubles InPlay’s total output to 18,750 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). The assets are 68% weighted in oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) and have a low decline rate of 22%. Management expects greater production, a lower decline rate, and enhanced operational efficiency. Following the completion of the acquisition, InPlay had 167,636,627 shares issued and outstanding.

Share consolidation. Effective April 14, InPlay will implement a share consolidation based on one common share for six common shares. The consolidation was unanimously approved by the company’s board and by 96.56% of the votes cast during a special meeting of shareholders. Post-consolidation, InPlay will have approximately 27,939,438 common shares issued and outstanding. The shares are expected to begin trading on a post-consolidation basis two to three trading days following the effective date.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, April 11, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – Is It Time To Buy The Stock?

Saga Communications (SGA/$11.5 | Price Target: $18)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Is It Time To Buy The Stock?
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Attractive opportunity. The SGA stock is down 48% over the past year, which we believe is largely due to macroeconomic uncertainty impacting advertising revenue and a digital segment that is still early in its development. With some of the noise related to the late filing and activist shareholders quelled for the time being, the company is fully focused on its growth strategy. Given that radio stocks typically experience early cycle recoveries, we believe investors should have the SGA shares on their radar screens.

Cost-effective digital growth strategy. A key focus of the company is reducing costs that have no impact on revenue and continuing to emphasize the roll out of its blended digital advertising strategy. Notably, the blended strategy combines radio and digital advertising to provide a consistent message to customers on both mediums and to drive radio listeners to digital platforms. We view the company’s emphasis on the unique strategy favorably.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 10, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Working Capital

Snail (SNAL/$0.77 | Price Target: $4)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Increasing Working Capital
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Completes a private placement. The Company completed a private placement offering of two unsecured convertible promissory notes for a combined total of $3.3 million. The notes were sold at a 10% discount to the principal amount and will pay a 5% Paid-In-Kind (PIK) annualized dividend. The proceeds will be used to increase working capital to support its projects and game releases in 2025.

Convertible features. The notes are convertible into shares of Class A Common Stock at $5.00 on any trading day during the five trading days prior to the conversion date. The notes mature in February 2026. Interest to be Paid-In-Kind (PIK) on the convertible notes will begin May 2025 and will be paid in 10 equal payments.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – A Strong U.S. Economy Relies on Abundant, Affordable and Reliable Energy Sources
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – New Business; Successful ReFi

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$25.87 | Price Target: $32)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
A Strong U.S. Economy Relies on Abundant, Affordable and Reliable Energy Sources
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Biden-era policies disadvantaged coal-fired power plants. In May 2024, the Environmental Protection Agency published a final rule that amended the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) rule to make it more stringent. The rule placed severe burdens on coal-fired power plants and required compliance with standards premised on the application of costly emissions-control technologies that, for many coal plants, were not commercially viable. The new carbon emission rules were expected to accelerate coal-fired power plant retirements.

Taking a pragmatic and realistic approach. On April 8, President Trump took actions through proclamation and executive order to, 1) reinvigorate the U.S. coal industry, 2) protect American energy from state overreach, 3) strengthen the reliability and security of the United States electric grid, and 4) provide two years of relief from stringent Biden-era environmental regulations by allowing certain coal plants to comply with a less stringent version of the MATS rule. Moreover, the actions are intended to reduce regulatory burdens and promote coal exports.

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V2X (VVX/$45.66 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
New Business; Successful ReFi
Rating: OUTPERFORM

COBRA DANE. V2X has been awarded a $62 million contract extension to continue ensuring the operational readiness of the COBRA DANE radar system in Alaska. In addition to ensuring operational readiness, V2X has incorporated various engineering enhancements into this essential system, extending its capabilities and readiness. This full-spectrum support emphasizes V2X’s differentiated capabilities, in our view. The extension work is expected to be completed by March 2027.

TESS ID/IQ. V2X won a seat on the Bridge to Enduring Synthetic Training Environment Tactical Engagement Simulation Systems (TESS). This contract supports the U.S. Army’s TESS devices, a vital component of its live training capabilities, by extending their product life and ensuring they meet the Army’s evolving requirements. The ID/IQ contract includes a ten-year performance period consisting of a five-year base period and two options with a ceiling value of $921 million. This award complements V2X’s previously won $3.7 billion Warfighter Readiness task order.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Monica
GDEV (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – A More Profitable Growth Outlook

Euroseas (ESEA/$28.13 | Price Target: $44)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Monica
Rating: OUTPERFORM

New time charter contract. Euroseas Ltd. executed a time charter contract for the M/V Monica at a gross daily rate of $23,500 for a minimum period of 24 months, with an option to extend to a maximum of 26 months at the charterer’s option. The M/V Monica is a 1,800 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) feeder container ship. The new charter is expected to commence between the end of April and mid-May 2025.

Attractive rate and improved charter coverage. The new time charter is an improvement over the previous contract rate of $16,000 per day and is expected to contribute EBITDA of $12.1 million during the minimum contracted period. The new time charter enhances Euroseas’ charter coverage for the remainder of 2025 and 2026 to ~94% and ~58%, respectively.

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GDEV (GDEV/$9.7 | Price Target: $70)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
A More Profitable Growth Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $97.5 million, modestly lower than our estimate of $101.0 million, but adj. EBITDA of $12.2 million was substantially better than our estimate of a loss of $1.9 million. The adj. EBITDA beat was largely driven by the company’s efficient use of selling and marketing expenses, which were 25% lower than our estimate.

Key operating metrics. In Q4, the company generated $94 million in bookings and had 292,000 monthly paying users (MPU). Bookings were largely in line with our expectations, while MPUs were modestly lower than we anticipated. Importantly, the decrease in MPU’s moderated from the quarter-over-quarter decrease experienced in Q3, and the company’s strategic marketing efforts appear to be gaining traction.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 7, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Plenty Of Near Term Catalysts

E.W. Scripps (SSP/$2.38 | Price Target: $10)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Plenty Of Near Term Catalysts
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Notes from recent investor meetings. This report highlights comments from Jason Combs, CFO, and Carolyn Micheli, VP Corp. Communications, on a Non-Deal Roadshow to California on April 2, 2025. Topics of discussion included the timing of debt refinancings, deregulation prospects, current advertising environment, Retransmission growth, and revenue prospects from the implementation of a new broadcast standard, ATCS 3.0. 

Debt refi to be completed imminently. The company is expected to imminently announce the securitization of $450 million of its accounts receivable, with a portion of the proceeds to be used to pay down its 2026 term loan and extending its revolver to mid-2027. Notably, the interest rate on the refi is a modest 70 basis points above the original revolver. The company also pushed the maturities of its 2026 term loan and 2028 term loan 2 years and 1 year, respectively. 

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, April 4, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – While the Tariff Overhang is Removed, RAIL Shares Remain Undervalued
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Challenges Remain, But Some Positive Signs

FreightCar America (RAIL/$5 | Price Target: $13.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
While the Tariff Overhang is Removed, RAIL Shares Remain Undervalued
Rating: OUTPERFORM

No direct tariff impact. While the Trump administration recently announced sweeping new tariffs, goods from Mexico and Canada that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade agreement remain exempt from tariffs, except for automobile exports and steel and aluminum, which fall under separate tariffs. FreightCar America sources most of its raw materials, including aluminum, from the United States.

Return to business as usual. FreightCar America, along with customers in its addressable markets, have greater certainty regarding tariff policies, which could promote a return to business as usual for those that might have previously deferred orders due to uncertainty. While the Trump administration’s trade policies could have implications for U.S. and global economic growth, we believe the tariffs are negotiable. Importantly, because RAIL continues to increase its market share serving an industry that is in a replacement cycle, we do not anticipate a change in RAIL’s near-term sales trajectory despite the potential for slower economic growth.

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Resources Connection (RGP/$5.32 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Challenges Remain, But Some Positive Signs
Rating: OUTPERFORM

3Q25 Results. Results came in-line or better than management’s expectations. Revenue was $129.4 million, modestly short of our $132 million estimate. Gross margin of 35.1% was just above the high end of guidance and our 34.8% estimate. The bottom line was impacted by a $42 million goodwill impairment charge, resulting in an adjusted loss of $0.08/sh for the quarter.

Challenging Environment. The professional services environment remains challenging, especially in the U.S., given the economic uncertainty. However, the Company is seeing positive signs in the International business. Several key performance indicators, including bill rate increases, sizeable pipeline expansion, and the return of $1M+ project pursuits, point to a brighter future.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 3, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

GDEV (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – Marketing Strategy Hits Its Stride
Government Solutions (Government Solutions) – New ICE Emergency Funding?
MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – A Cannabis Brands Company; Initiating Coverage

GDEV (GDEV/$10.87 | Price Target: $70)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Marketing Strategy Hits Its Stride
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Solid Q4 results.  The company reported Q4 revenue of $97.5 million, modestly lower than our estimate of $101.0 million, but adj. EBITDA of $12.2 million was substantially better than our estimate of a loss of $1.9 million, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. The adj. EBITDA beat was largely driven by the company’s efficient use of selling and marketing expenses, which was 25% lower than our estimate.

Key operating metrics. In Q4, the company generated $94 million in bookings and had 292,000 monthly paying users (MPU). Bookings were largely in line with our expectations, while MPUs were modestly lower than we anticipated. Importantly, the decrease in MPU’s moderated from the quarter-over-quarter decrease experienced in Q3, and the company’s strategic marketing efforts appear to be gaining traction.

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Government Solutions
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
New ICE Emergency Funding?

Emergency Funding. On Tuesday, the Department of Homeland Security submitted on SAM.gov for an emergency detention and related services strategic sourcing vehicle to bring an additional allotment of detention beds online nationwide, in compliance with the President’s Declaration of a National Emergency at the Southern Border of the United States and related Executive Orders. The maximum ceiling value of the vehicle is $45 billion.

Details. Under the RFP, the government anticipates making multiple indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract awards. It appears the contract will have a two-year period of performance, from April 14, 2025, through April 13, 2027.  Responses are due by April 4th. Under the scope of work, the vendor may be required to provide infrastructure, staffing, services, and/or supplies necessary to provide safe and secure confinement for aliens in the administrative custody of ICE. Ground transportation services may also be required.

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MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.09 | Price Target: $0.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Cannabis Brands Company; Initiating Coverage
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Initiating Research Coverage. We are initiating research coverage of MariMed, Inc. with an Outperform rating and a $0.25 price target. MariMed is a cannabis brand powerhouse, in our view, with leading market shares in current markets and significant expansion potential both within existing markets and new greenfield markets.

MSO. With operations in six states, MariMed is a vertically integrated seed-to-sale cannabis provider. Following in the footsteps of successful consumer brands companies, MariMed has three market leading brands across its operations. We expect the Company to benefit from the growth of its brands in growing markets as well as the addition of new markets in Ohio, Illinois, and Delaware in 2025. 

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Focused On Licensing Development

Xcel Brands (XELB/$3.05 | Price Target: $17.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Focused On Licensing Development
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Industry dynamics. The QVC Group recently announced that it is laying off 900 employees as part of its effort to become a live social shopping company. Notably, while we don’t anticipate QVC will stop live selling on traditional TV, the increased focus on social commerce is illustrative of changing consumer viewing habits. In our view, XCEL Brands is well positioned to benefit from shift in viewing habits toward streaming alternatives.

Valuable expertise. XCEL Brands is a veteran in the live selling space and has extensive experience working with celebrities to help bring their products to market and help them sell. In our view, the company is well positioned to provide celebrities with expertise both in traditional TV and social commerce selling, or live streaming.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Making Progress on Multiple Fronts
Cocrystal Pharma (COCP)/OUTPERFORM – FY2024 Reported With Clinical Trials On Schedule
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – FY2024 Reported As The Countdown To OLC PDUDFA Date Begins

Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.24 | Price Target: $0.55)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Making Progress on Multiple Fronts
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Concession renewal in Ecuador. In March, Aurania filed the appropriate documentation for the 2025 renewal of its 42 mineral exploration concessions in southeastern Ecuador, along with a request to enter into an agreement for payment of the annual concession fees. The request was accepted, and the company is working with various governmental departments to negotiate an agreement. Aurania considers that by filing the concession renewals prior to the March 31 deadline, it maintains its property in Ecuador in good standing while a payment agreement is being finalized.

Kuri-Yawi IP geophysical survey. An induced polarization survey was completed at the Kuri-Yawi epithermal gold target in late 2024. The survey confirmed the presence of a conductive area, which could be an epithermal conduit that Aurania has been targeting. Aurania’s geologists are currently studying and comparing data compiled to date from the IP survey, an airborne magnetic survey, field work, previous drilling data, and a MobileMT survey to define the best possible drill hole locations for a future drilling program.

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Cocrystal Pharma (COCP/$1.42 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
FY2024 Reported With Clinical Trials On Schedule
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Fourth Quarter and FY2024 Reported. Cocrystal reported a 4Q24 loss of $3.1 million or $(0.31) per share and a FY2024 loss of $17.5 million or $(1.72) per share. The company reviewed the progress it has made in 4Q24 and YTD with CC-988 for norovirus/coronavirus and with CPI-42344 for influenza. The cash balance on December 31, 2024, was $9.9 million.

Human Challenge Study Planned For CC-988 In Norovirus. Cocrystal is planning a human challenge study to test CC-988, its protease inhibitor for norovirus and coronaviruses. The new trial follows the results of the Phase 1 ascending dose studies announced in December 2024, showing safety and tolerability. Results from an additional high-dose cohort are expected in 2Q25. The Phase 2a human challenge study is expected to begin later in 2025.

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Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$0.57 | Price Target: $7)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
FY2024 Reported As The Countdown To OLC PDUDFA Date Begins
Rating: OUTPERFORM

FY2025 Made Significant Progress. Unicycive reported a 4Q loss of $21.7 million or $(0.20) per share and a loss of $37.8 million or $(0.56) per share for FY2024. Cash on December 31, 2024 was $26.1 million. The most significant development, in our opinion, is the June 28, 2025, PFUFA date by which the FDA is required to answer to the Oxylanthanum (OLC) NDA.

OLC Launch is expected in Late 2025. The PDUFA date of June 28, 2025, is the statutory date by which the FDA is required to answer the NDA application. We expect OLC to be approved, based on its clinical trial data showing equivalence to lanthanum (Fosrenol, from Shire) with easier dosing, better patient compliance, and more patients reaching the target range for phosphate levels. An estimated 70% of the renal dialysis patients do not have adequate phosphate control. We believe its lower pill burden and improved patient compliance will lead to better outcomes with fewer morbidity events, leading to a strong market share.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, March 31, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – 2025 To Headline Diversification Efforts

Snail (SNAL/$1.04 | Price Target: $4)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
2025 To Headline Diversification Efforts
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue and adj. EBITDA of $26.2 million and $1.6 million, respectively. While revenue was modestly better than our estimate of $25.0 million, adj. EBITDA was a tad softer. Notably, the variance in adj. EBITDA was driven by an increased focus on in-house development, resulting in higher R&D costs. We view the company’s efforts to diversify its revenue stream as a favorable development.

Portfolio expansion. The company has been taking steps to offer more games and products that could drive revenue diversification. Notably, the company launched ARK: Ultimate Mobile Edition in December and gained over 2 million users during the month. Additionally, the company soft launched a new mobile app, SaltyTV, which offers original short film content. Furthermore, the company acquired eleven games in 2024, with several releases expected in 2025.

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Xcel Brands (XELB) – Focused On Licensing Development


Wednesday, April 02, 2025

Xcel Brands, Inc. 1333 Broadway 10th Floor New York, NY 10018 United States https:/Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 84 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Robert W. D’Loren Chairman, Pres & CEO 1.27M N/A 1958 Mr. James F. Haran CFO, Principal Financial & Accou

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Industry dynamics. The QVC Group recently announced that it is laying off 900 employees as part of its effort to become a live social shopping company. Notably, while we don’t anticipate QVC will stop live selling on traditional TV, the increased focus on social commerce is illustrative of changing consumer viewing habits. In our view, XCEL Brands is well positioned to benefit from shift in viewing habits toward streaming alternatives.

Valuable expertise. XCEL Brands is a veteran in the live selling space and has extensive experience working with celebrities to help bring their products to market and help them sell. In our view, the company is well positioned to provide celebrities with expertise both in traditional TV and social commerce selling, or live streaming.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Noble Capital Markets 2025 Virtual Conference

Noble Capital Markets’ Emerging Growth Virtual Equity Conference – June 4-5, 2025

Set to be an immersive experience, bringing together investors, industry leaders, and experts from middle market public companies across all sectors. Featuring:

Corporate presentations with Fireside-style Q&A session proctored by Noble’s analysts and bankers

Scheduled 1×1 meetings with qualified investors

More than 50 presenting companies, representing a wide array of sectors.

Why Present?

Noble’s investor base extends beyond traditional institutions to include family offices, money managers, and high-net-worth individuals who actively engage in smaller cap, open market transactions.

Noble’s investors crave the undervalued investment idea.

And not just investors that attend the live event. Channelchek will host replays of the corporate presentations and Q&A sessions right here, for all investors to view, free of charge, for the rest of the year.

Participation in conferences, both in-person and virtually, has proven to help in boosting awareness and liquidity. And Noble’s service offerings extend well beyond the conference circuit; our events are an extension of the year-round investor access we provide.

Ready to Register to Present? Click the link below:

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Email: Noble’s Conference Team

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Learn more about Noble’s Investor Events throughout the year:

Noble Capital Markets Investor Events

Alumis and ACELYRIN Announce Definitive Merger Agreement in All-Stock Transaction

Key Points:
– Alumis and ACELYRIN have agreed to an all-stock merger, creating a well-capitalized biopharmaceutical company focused on advancing immunology treatments.
– The combined company will have approximately $737 million in cash and securities, supporting multiple clinical trial readouts and operations into 2027.
– Alumis will retain its name and leadership team, with an expanded board including two ACELYRIN members, and the merger is expected to close in Q2 2025.

Alumis Inc. (NASDAQ: ALMS) and ACELYRIN (NASDAQ: SLRN) have announced a definitive merger agreement, combining the two clinical-stage biopharmaceutical companies in an all-stock transaction aimed at advancing immunology treatments and optimizing clinical outcomes.

Strategic Rationale and Financial Position

The merger will create a strongly capitalized company with a combined cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities position of approximately $737 million as of year-end 2024. This financial strength is expected to support the advancement of the companies’ combined pipeline through multiple key clinical data readouts and fund operating expenses and capital expenditures into 2027.

The combined company will leverage its track record in research and development and a proprietary data and analytics platform to drive innovation in immune-mediated diseases.

Martin Babler, President, CEO, and Chairman of Alumis, stated: “Through this combination with ACELYRIN, Alumis will have the financial flexibility and runway to advance an expanded late-stage pipeline, now including lonigutamab, and build commercial capabilities. Since completing our IPO, Alumis has operated with speed and rigor, and the multiple development milestones expected in 2025 and 2026, coupled with potential additional indications for ESK-001, represent exciting breakthroughs for our patients and value-driving opportunities for the combined company’s stockholders. As we move forward together, we will maintain financial discipline and a flexible capital allocation strategy with the goal of maximizing the value of our highly differentiated portfolio.”

Pipeline Highlights

  • Alumis’ ESK-001: A next-generation, allosteric TYK2 inhibitor, currently in Phase 3 ONWARD trials for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis (PsO) and Phase 2b LUMUS trials for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Key Phase 2 52-week updates expected in 2025, with Phase 3 topline data in H1 2026.
  • Alumis’ A-005: A CNS-penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor, targeting neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases like multiple sclerosis (MS) and Parkinson’s Disease. A Phase 2 trial is set to begin in H2 2025.
  • ACELYRIN’s Lonigutamab: A subcutaneous anti-IGF-1R therapy with best-in-class potential for thyroid eye disease (TED), currently under Phase 2 evaluation.

Transaction Terms & Leadership Structure

  • Exchange Ratio: ACELYRIN stockholders will receive 0.4274 shares of Alumis common stock for each ACELYRIN share owned.
  • Ownership Breakdown: 55% Alumis stockholders, 45% ACELYRIN stockholders post-transaction.
  • Leadership: The combined company will operate under the Alumis name and be led by Alumis’ executive team, strengthened by key ACELYRIN professionals and medical experts.
  • Board Expansion: The board will grow to nine members, including two from ACELYRIN.
  • Closing Timeline: The transaction is expected to close in Q2 2025, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.

This merger brings together two companies dedicated to transforming immunology treatments, strengthening their pipeline, and delivering long-term value to patients and investors alike.

January Jobs Report Shows Slower-Than-Expected Growth

Key Points:
– January job growth slowed to 143,000, falling below expectations and marking a sharp decline from December’s revised 307,000 gain.
– Wage growth increased by 4.1% over the past year, outpacing inflation but continuing to pose affordability challenges for consumers.
– The Federal Reserve and markets are closely monitoring labor trends, while rising trade policy uncertainty and potential economic shifts under President Trump add to financial volatility.

The U.S. labor market saw weaker-than-expected job growth in January, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 143,000, below the Dow Jones forecast of 169,000 and down from a revised 307,000 in December. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate declined to 4.0%, showing continued resilience in the job market despite the slowdown in hiring.

Key Takeaways from the January Jobs Report

  • Weaker Job Growth: January’s 143,000 job gain marks a sharp decline from December and falls below expectations.
  • Downward Revisions: Total payroll numbers for 2024 were revised downward by 589,000 over the trailing 12-month period ending in March 2024.
  • Sector Performance:
    • Healthcare: +44,000 jobs
    • Retail: +34,000 jobs
    • Government: +32,000 jobs
  • Labor Force Participation: Increased 0.1% from December to 62.6%.
  • 2024 Job Growth Trend: The monthly average for job growth in 2024 stood at 166,000 per month.
  • Wage Growth: Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% over the past year, partly due to minimum wage hikes in parts of the country.
  • Affordability Challenges: Wage growth continues to outpace recent inflation rates, but many consumers still face affordability challenges.

Market and Federal Reserve Reactions

Markets showed little reaction to the report in early trading, as investors had largely anticipated a slowdown in job creation. Federal Reserve officials are closely monitoring labor market data as they consider future monetary policy moves. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point in late 2024, and today’s report may influence their next steps regarding interest rate adjustments. President Trump recently stated that the Fed’s decision last week to hold rates steady was well-advised, despite previously criticizing the move.

Broader Economic and Political Context

Some indicators, such as hiring rates, suggest slower movement in the job market. Meanwhile, business executives remain optimistic that Trump’s policies—such as tax cuts and deregulation—will boost economic growth. However, Trump’s recent tariff decisions have rattled markets, adding to economic uncertainty. Rising trade policy uncertainty could further heighten financial market volatility in the coming months.

The Historical Importance of Jobs Reports

The monthly jobs report is one of the most closely watched economic indicators, providing insights into labor market health, consumer spending power, and broader economic momentum. Historically, strong job growth has been associated with economic expansion, while sluggish reports can indicate slowdowns or even recessions. Policymakers, investors, and businesses use these reports to make critical decisions on interest rates, hiring strategies, and economic forecasts. In the current environment, sustained job growth and wage pressures suggest a resilient labor market, even as broader economic uncertainties loom.

With job growth slowing but unemployment remaining stable, policymakers will weigh the need for further economic stimulus against concerns of overheating the labor market. The upcoming months will be crucial in determining whether this slowdown is temporary or indicative of a broader labor market trend.

TPG to Acquire Altus Power in $2.2 Billion Deal

Key Points:
– TPG Rise Climate will acquire Altus Power for $5.00 per share in a $2.2 billion deal, taking the company private to accelerate clean energy expansion.
– Altus Power’s Board of Directors unanimously approved the transaction, which represents a 66% premium to its October 2024 stock price and is expected to close in Q2 2025.
– This acquisition aligns with TPG Rise Climate’s strategy to scale climate solutions, leveraging its expertise in clean energy infrastructure to support Altus Power’s growth.

Altus Power, the largest owner of commercial-scale solar in the U.S., has announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by TPG through its TPG Rise Climate Transition Infrastructure strategy. Under the terms of the agreement, TPG will acquire Altus at $5.00 per share, valuing the company at approximately $2.2 billion, including outstanding debt. Upon completion of the transaction, Altus Power will become a privately held company.

Strategic Rationale and Market Impact

On October 15, 2024, Altus Power initiated a formal review of strategic alternatives. Today’s purchase price represents a 66% premium to Altus’ closing price on that date. The company expects this acquisition to bolster its ability to provide greater value to both commercial and Community Solar customers while expanding access to clean electric power.

“This transaction represents a pivotal moment for Altus Power,” said Gregg Felton, CEO of Altus Power. “We are incredibly excited to partner with TPG Rise Climate to continue to build our position as the leading commercial-scale provider of clean electric power to businesses and households from coast to coast. TPG Rise Climate’s deep expertise in the clean energy sector, investment-oriented mindset, and value-driven approach to infrastructure development align perfectly with our vision. This partnership strengthens our ability to serve both our Community Solar and commercial clients with clean electric power at a time when demand for power is expected to grow substantially. As a private company, Altus Power will be better positioned for continued long-term growth, which we believe will allow us to scale our operations, drive innovation, and enhance the value we deliver to our customers. Together with TPG Rise Climate, we believe we are poised to accelerate clean energy adoption and ensure more businesses and communities have access to the power they need for a sustainable future.”

Transaction Details

  • The Board of Directors of Altus has unanimously approved the transaction and recommends that Altus stockholders vote to adopt the merger agreement.
  • The deal is contingent upon majority approval by Class A stockholders.
  • The transaction is expected to close in Q2 2025.

About TPG Rise Climate

TPG Rise Climate is the dedicated climate investing platform of TPG, a leading global alternative asset management firm. With dedicated pools of capital across private equity, transition infrastructure, and the Global South, TPG Rise Climate focuses on climate-related investments that benefit from the expertise of TPG’s investment professionals and its global network of executives, advisors, and corporate partners. As part of TPG’s $25 billion global impact investing platform, TPG Rise Climate invests broadly in the climate sector, emphasizing clean electrons, clean molecules and materials, and negative emissions.

About Altus Power

Altus Power is a leader in commercial-scale solar energy, providing clean, renewable energy solutions for businesses and communities across the U.S. The company is currently traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol AMPS.

Above Food to Acquire Palm Global Technologies, Expanding into Agri-Tech and Sustainable Innovation

Key Points:
– Above Food Ingredients Inc. (NASDAQ: ABVE) has signed a Letter of Intent to acquire Palm Global Technologies Ltd. in a $180 million share exchange, expanding into Agri-Tech, FinTech, and carbon credit securitization.
– Palm Global’s proprietary AI, blockchain, and decentralized finance technologies will enhance Above Food’s vertically integrated food systems, supporting sustainable agriculture and economic empowerment for millions of farmers.
– Following the acquisition, Palm Global’s Peter Knez will become Chairman and CEO of the combined companies, with definitive agreements expected to be finalized and closed in the near term.

Above Food Ingredients Inc. (NASDAQ: ABVE), a leader in sustainable, vertically integrated food systems, has signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) to acquire Palm Global Technologies Ltd., a next-generation innovator in technology, sustainability, and global food markets. The acquisition is expected to strengthen Above Food’s position in Agri-Tech, FinTech, and carbon credit securitization, further advancing its commitment to sustainable food production and innovation.

Strategic Rationale and Industry Impact

The transaction will integrate Above Food’s vertically integrated food systems with Palm Global’s groundbreaking technologies, alliances, and global reach. Palm Global’s proprietary AI, blockchain, and decentralized finance technologies are designed to drive economic empowerment, education, and sustainable growth, particularly in underserved markets, benefiting tens of millions of farmers worldwide.

“This transformative acquisition positions Above Food to redefine global agriculture and sustainability while unlocking a number of significant opportunities in high-growth markets,” said Lionel Kambeitz, Founder and CEO of Above Food. “Palm Global’s innovative technologies, combined with its mission to drive economic empowerment, align perfectly with our vision for sustainable food solutions worldwide.”

Palm Global’s Technological and Strategic Contributions

  • AI, Blockchain, and DeFi Technologies – Palm Global’s solutions enhance efficiency, security, and accessibility in the global food supply chain.
  • Partnerships with Governments and Institutions – Palm Global collaborates with entities like the Peace for Life Foundation, IIMSAM, and global institutions to accelerate technology adoption among farmers.
  • Strategic Global Alliances – The acquisition allows Above Food to leverage Palm Global’s extensive partnerships to develop, utilize, and maximize R&D capabilities in agronomy and genomics.

The newly combined entity will enable innovative initiatives such as regenerative agriculture and grow-to-order food solutions, creating customized approaches to meet evolving consumer and agricultural needs.

Transaction Details and Leadership Transition

  • The LOI outlines a share exchange valuing Palm Global at approximately $180 million.
  • Definitive agreements are expected this month, with approvals and closing anticipated soon after.
  • Peter Knez, currently on Palm Global’s Board of Directors, will assume the role of Chairman and CEO of the combined companies.

Future Outlook

This merger is set to enhance global food security, promote sustainable agriculture, and create economic opportunities in underserved markets through technological innovation and strategic partnerships. By combining resources, Above Food and Palm Global aim to drive the next wave of transformation in sustainable food production and agricultural technology.

Teladoc Health to Acquire Catapult Health, Expanding Preventive and At-Home Care Offerings

Key Points:
– Teladoc Health is acquiring Catapult Health for $65 million to enhance its preventive care and at-home diagnostic testing capabilities, further strengthening its integrated healthcare solutions.
– Catapult Health’s VirtualCheckup program will enable Teladoc to expand its chronic condition management services and seamlessly connect high-risk patients to virtual care programs.
– This acquisition comes as Teladoc seeks to regain momentum following its 2020 Livongo acquisition, which initially valued the combined company at $37 billion but has since declined to a market cap under $2 billion.

Teladoc Health has announced a definitive agreement to acquire Catapult Health, a move aimed at strengthening its preventive care and chronic condition management capabilities while expanding its at-home diagnostic testing offerings. This acquisition aligns with Teladoc’s strategy to enhance virtual care accessibility and effectiveness for its over 93 million members.

Catapult Health is recognized for its innovative approach to at-home wellness and diagnostic testing, which integrates virtual clinical support and high-touch patient engagement. Teladoc plans to leverage these capabilities to further enrich its industry-leading suite of integrated healthcare solutions.

“This acquisition will help advance our strategy in meaningful ways — from giving more members access to convenient and impactful wellness and preventive care, to unlocking greater value for our customers,” said Chuck Divita, Chief Executive Officer of Teladoc Health. “Catapult Health brings an experienced team and a strong culture of innovation, and we are thrilled to welcome them to Teladoc Health.”

Strategic Objectives and Synergies

Teladoc Health’s integrated care strategy is built on four key pillars:

  • Expanding Membership and Service Utilization – Enhancing the accessibility and engagement of healthcare services for existing and new members.
  • Leveraging Clinical Expertise and Product Breadth – Strengthening healthcare outcomes by integrating a broader range of clinical solutions.
  • Growing International Presence – Extending Teladoc’s reach beyond domestic markets to serve a global population.
  • Advancing Mental Health Solutions – Building upon its existing leadership in virtual mental health services.

Catapult Health’s flagship VirtualCheckup program exemplifies its innovation in preventive care. The at-home wellness exam provides members with a simple diagnostic kit, allowing them to collect blood samples, measure blood pressure, and submit other key health data. Following this, a virtual consultation with a licensed healthcare professional ensures timely assessment and guidance.

For members identified with high-risk factors or chronic conditions, Catapult’s clinicians can seamlessly enroll them into Teladoc’s condition management programs, including diabetes, hypertension, pre-diabetes, and weight management. Additionally, members can be referred to Teladoc’s virtual mental health specialists and primary care providers for continued support.

Transaction Details

The acquisition is structured as an all-cash transaction valued at $65 million, with up to $5 million in contingent earnout consideration. Catapult Health reported $30 million in trailing 12-month revenue as of Q3 2024. Upon closing, Catapult will be integrated into Teladoc’s Integrated Care segment. The deal is expected to close in Q1 2025.

Impact and Market Expansion

Catapult Health currently serves over 3 million people through its partnerships with hundreds of employer clients. The company is recognized for its strong customer satisfaction, clinical outcomes, and cost-saving benefits, including an estimated $1,400 average savings per participant over a three-year period due to early disease detection and health risk identification.

Teladoc’s Market Challenges and Context

This acquisition comes after a tumultuous period for Teladoc. Following its acquisition of Livongo in 2020, the combined companies had an enterprise value of $37 billion. However, Teladoc’s stock has struggled since then, with a current market capitalization just under $2 billion. The acquisition of Catapult Health represents a strategic effort to regain momentum and strengthen its position in the evolving telehealth market.

U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Second-Highest Annual Total in 2024; December Deficit Sets Record

Key Points:
– The U.S. trade deficit reached $918.4 billion in 2024, marking the second-largest annual total, while December’s deficit set a record at $98.4 billion.
– Strong consumer demand, a robust U.S. dollar, and rising imports—particularly in industrial supplies and consumer goods—outpaced export growth, widening the trade gap.
– Escalating trade tensions, including newly imposed and proposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, could further disrupt trade flows and market stability in 2025.

The U.S. trade deficit surged to $918.4 billion in 2024, marking the second-highest annual total in history. This 17% increase from 2023 was driven primarily by a sharp rise in imports, which climbed 6.6% to $4.11 trillion, outpacing export growth of 3.9% to $3.19 trillion.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, December’s trade deficit reached a record-high $98.4 billion, up $19.5 billion from November. Monthly exports dropped to $266.5 billion, while imports surged to $364.9 billion.

Key Trends in 2024 Trade Data

  • Record Merchandise Trade: The U.S. set all-time highs for total merchandise trade, imports, and the December monthly trade deficit.
  • Regional Trade Concentration: Nearly 41% of total U.S. trade involved Mexico, Canada, and China.
  • Strong Consumer Demand: Americans continued spending on imported goods such as weight-loss drugs, auto parts, computers, and food, supported by a strong U.S. dollar that made foreign products more affordable.
  • Declining Vehicle Exports: U.S. auto-related exports fell by $10.8 billion, largely due to intensified competition from China’s expanding auto industry.
  • Growth in Services Sector: Foreign spending on U.S. travel, business, and financial services helped boost service sector exports, which reached $1.107 trillion, up $81.2 billion from 2023.

Policy and Market Impact

Trade flows could face further disruption in 2025 as President Trump escalates trade tensions. This week, the administration imposed—then temporarily paused—25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. Trump has also proposed an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, building on existing 25% duties from his first term. In response, China announced $20 billion in retaliatory tariffs and new export restrictions on critical minerals.

The U.S. posted its largest bilateral trade deficit with China at $295.4 billion, while also running record deficits with Mexico, Vietnam, India, Taiwan, South Korea, and the European Union. Meanwhile, Trump has made reducing the trade deficit “to zero” a primary policy objective and is considering imposing tariffs on the EU and UK.

Economic Context

A strong U.S. economy and a robust dollar fueled demand for imports, even as American exports faced headwinds in global markets. The U.S. trade deficit as a share of GDP rose to 3.1% in 2024, up from 2.8% in 2023. Many essential goods, such as consumer products and apparel, are no longer produced domestically, further reinforcing America’s reliance on imports.

As businesses rushed to import goods ahead of potential tariff hikes, the trade deficit soared in December, setting a record for the highest monthly deficit and contributing to the second-largest annual trade gap in U.S. history. With ongoing trade disputes and policy shifts, global trade flows could remain volatile in the months ahead.

Lifeway Foods (LWAY) – Danone Ups Offer to $27


Friday, November 15, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Ups Offer. In an amended Schedule 13D filing on Friday morning, Danone upped their offer to acquire the shares of Lifeway not already owned to $27, all cash, from a prior $25. According to a letter filed with the amended 13D, Danone believes the “updated indicative price fully reflects the fundamental potential of the Company and provides Lifeway’s shareholders with the certainty of an attractive and immediate cash premium.”

3 Week Timing. Although Danone has yet to be granted access to any due diligence, Danone is prepared to conduct due diligence as soon as provided access to a data room. Danone also is ready to enter into immediate negotiations regarding the terms of a potential transaction. Subject to Danone being able to access immediately the information required as part of confirmatory due diligence and negotiating Transaction Documentation in parallel, Danone is confident in its ability to reach a definitive agreement in three weeks.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

GDEV Inc (GDEV) – Nearly Doubles Street Expectations


Friday, November 15, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Over delivered on Q3 results. Total company revenue was $110.7 million, beating our $103.0 million estimate. With costs in line with expectations, the revenue upside flowed to adj. EBITDA, which substantially exceeded our expectations, of $16.9 million versus our estimate of $4.9 million, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q3 Results. We believe that the results beat Street estimates, with consensus adj. EBITDA of $8.5 million.

Upside variance. The company is seeking ways to make efficient use of its marketing spend, particularly in areas that provide sufficient returns. Sales & Marketing expenses of $52.0 million were lower than our $53.0 million estimate in spite of better than expected revenues. We anticipate Sales & Marketing expenses to accelerate in coming quarters as the company hones in on its marketing strategy and expands into new territories. 


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The NobleCon20 VIP Giveaway

Noble Financial Group and Channelchek are pleased to present the NobleCon20 VIP Giveaway. This contest was open exclusively to registered, verified Channelchek members.

Contest is now closed.  The winner will be announced on November 18, 2024. The winner was notified via email on November 15.

Learn more about NobleCon20 @ www.nobleconference.com

Three Biotech Companies Price Their IPOs, Raising Significant Capital for Future Growth

Key Points:
– Upstream Bio raised $255 million to fund advanced trials for its respiratory disease drug verekitug, achieving a valuation of $830 million.
– Ceribell raised $180 million to further develop its AI-powered EEG platform, focusing on diagnosing serious neurological conditions.
– CAMP4 Therapeutics raised $75 million to continue its work in gene expression therapies, pricing its IPO below expectations at $11 per share.

Three biotech companies priced their initial public offerings (IPOs) on Thursday, securing substantial funding to advance their innovative therapies and technologies. The companies—Upstream Bio, Ceribell, and CAMP4 Therapeutics—collectively raised millions, with plans to use the proceeds for various clinical trials and product developments.

Upstream Bio: Raising $255 Million for Respiratory Therapies Upstream Bio led the day by raising $255 million, with its shares priced at the higher end of the expected range. Initially planning to sell 12.5 million shares between $15 and $17 each, the company increased the offering to 15 million shares due to high demand, pricing them near $17. This could further rise if underwriters exercise their option to purchase an additional 2.25 million shares. The company, which now has a valuation of around $830 million, will trade on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol UPB.

Upstream Bio is using the capital to advance clinical trials for its lead drug, verekitug, which is being tested for severe asthma and chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps. The drug targets a receptor for thymic stromal lymphopoietin, a key player in inflammatory diseases. Proceeds will also help initiate a phase 3 trial for severe asthma.

Ceribell: Secures $180 Million for AI-Powered Neurological Diagnostics Ceribell, a commercial-stage medical technology company, raised $180 million through its IPO, with 10.6 million shares priced at $17 each, giving the company a valuation of $578 million. Like Upstream, Ceribell also granted underwriters the option to purchase additional shares—up to 1.6 million more. The company will trade on the NASDAQ under the symbol CBLL.

Ceribell specializes in AI-powered neurological diagnostic tools, notably its point-of-care electroencephalography (EEG) platform, designed to help in the diagnosis and management of critical neurological conditions. The technology is expected to revolutionize the way healthcare providers address neurological emergencies.

CAMP4 Therapeutics: Raises $75 Million Despite Pricing Below Expectations CAMP4 Therapeutics saw its IPO priced below expectations, at $11 per share, compared to an initial range of $14 to $16. Despite this, the company managed to sell 6.8 million shares, surpassing its original goal of 5 million, for total gross proceeds of $75 million. CAMP4 will begin trading on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol CAMP.

CAMP4 focuses on regulatory RNA-targeting therapeutics, aiming to upregulate gene expression in genetic diseases. The proceeds will be used to further develop its drug pipeline, including its recent collaboration with BioMarin to target RNA sequences for therapeutic applications.