Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, March 24, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – All’s Well That Continues Well For Tegoprubart
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – An Investor Day Full of Opportunity; Raising PT to $35
Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Reverse Split Addresses NASDAQ Listing Requirement
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$3.51 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
All’s Well That Continues Well For Tegoprubart
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Eledon Reported 4Q24 Results and Reviewed Progress During The Quarter. Eledon reported a loss for 4Q24 of $44.6 million or $(0.64) per share and $36.2 million or $(0.75) per share for FY2024. Cash and equivalents on December 31, 2024 was $140.2 million, which is expected to fund operations through YE2026. Based on our estimated loss for 1Q25, we project the cash balance on March 31, 2025 to be about $115 million to $120 million.
Tegoprubart Has Clinical Trial Milestones Ahead. Enrollment in the Phase 2 BESTOW trial for prevention of kidney transplant rejection was completed ahead of schedule in August 2024 due to higher than anticipated interest from transplant surgeons. We anticipate top-line results in 4Q25. The Phase 1b open-label trial continues to evaluate patients and is expected to provide an interim data update in mid-year 2025.
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The GEO Group (GEO/$28.23 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
An Investor Day Full of Opportunity; Raising PT to $35
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Investor Day. The GEO Group hosted an investor day at the end of last week, during which the Company outlined the substantial growth opportunities available under the new programs to manage undocumented migrants, as well as its goal to both significantly reduce debt and return capital to shareholders.
Secure Facilities. There is an immediate need from ICE for additional detention capacity. This is illustrated by the new contract for GEO’s 1,800 bed North Lake Facility announced last Thursday. This new contract will add $70 million of annualized revenue. Management estimates currently unused bed capacity (including the three facilities recently contracted by ICE) could add $575-$625 million to revenue.
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Xcel Brands (XELB/$0.32 | Price Target: $17.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Reverse Split Addresses NASDAQ Listing Requirement.
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Reverse split. On March 21, 2025, the company announced a one-for-ten reverse stock split that will take effect at market open on March 25, 2025. Notably, we view the reverse split as a favorable development in the company’s efforts to satisfy NASDAQ’s minimum share price listing requirement of $1. In order to meet NASDAQ’s listing requirement, the XELB shares will need to close above $1 for ten consecutive trading days. Given the current share price of $0.32, we believe the company will likely regain NASDAQ compliance following the reverse split.
Reverse split details. In connection with the reverse split, the company will pay out cash considerations in lieu of issuing fractional shares, and proportionately adjust the underlying common stock and exercise prices of outstanding stock options and warrants. Additionally, the company will continue to trade under the XELB ticker, but will use a new CUSIP number of 98400M200.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, March 21, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – EuroHoldings Spin-Off and a New Time Charter Contract
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Attractive Risk/Reward
Euroseas (ESEA/$31.22 | Price Target: $51)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
EuroHoldings Spin-Off and a New Time Charter Contract
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New time charter contract. Euroseas executed a new time charter contract for the M/V Rena P, a 4,250 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) intermediate containership. The charter contract is at a gross daily rate of $35,500 for a minimum period of 35 months and a maximum period of 37 months at the charterer’s option. The contract is expected to take effect on August 21, 2025, in continuation of its present charter. The contract is anticipated to contribute roughly $29.0 million in EBITDA during the minimum contract period. The new contract strengthens the company’s charter coverage to 88% in 2025 and 54% in 2026.
Updating estimates. The new charter contract for $35,500 represents a significant improvement compared to the previous rate of $21,000. Consequently, we have increased our 2025 adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $145.1 million and $14.20, respectively, from $139.1 million and $13.35. In addition to the M/V Rena P, our estimates reflect updated time charter contract information for the M/V Marcos, M/V Synergy Antwerp, M/V Synergy Keelung, and M/V EM Hydra.
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Resources Connection (RGP/$6.85 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Attractive Risk/Reward
Rating: OUTPERFORM
3Q25. With earnings expected on April 2nd, we continue to favor RGP shares. We expect 3Q25 results to remain muted, given the ongoing economic uncertainty and elongated decision times. Nonetheless, we believe RGP’s rich portfolio of diversified offerings encompassing professional staffing support, consulting, and outsourced services creates a strategic powerhouse that we believe will drive value for investors over the long term.
Increased Efficiency in a Growing Market. The global professional services industry is projected to increase by a 6% CAGR over the next five years, growing to $95 billion, according to research published by Statista. With RGP implementing a new technology platform, which will enable increased use of artificial intelligence and automation in the delivery of services as well as back-office operations, we expect the combination of greater revenue and increased efficiency to drive significant results once the economy improves.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, March 20, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Cash Flow Supported 2024 Growth and Return of Capital
Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP)/OUTPERFORM – Fourth Quarter Reported As Tonmya PDUFA Approaches
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.29 | Price Target: $2.35)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Strong Cash Flow Supported 2024 Growth and Return of Capital
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Reserve report. Hemisphere released results from its independent reserve evaluation as of December 31, 2024. Compared to the year-end 2023 reserve report, proved developed producing (PDP) reserves increased 13.1% to 9,302.2 thousand barrels of oil equivalents. The growth in PDP reserves replaced 186% of 2024 production. Hemisphere’s estimated 2024 capital expenditures of ~C$22 million funded PDP reserve growth, annual production growth of ~10%, additional infrastructure, and the testing of a new resource play in Saskatchewan with an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) polymer pilot project.
Outlook for 2025. Hemisphere expects 2025 capital expenditures of ~C$17 million which are expected to support ~15% growth in annual average production to 3,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) compared to 2024. Most of the capital will be allocated to drilling, optimization, and facility work, with ~10% allotted to exploration and land acquisition. The majority of the planned expenditures are scheduled for the third quarter of 2025, providing the company with the flexibility to adjust plans based on changes in commodity prices.
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Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP/$16.47 | Price Target: $70)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Fourth Quarter Reported As Tonmya PDUFA Approaches
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth Quarter Reported With Product Development Updates. Tonix reported 4Q Net Loss to Common Shareholders of $22.1 million or $(9.77) per share and $130.0 million or $(176.60) per share for FY2024. Total Product sales were $10.1 million with Gross Margin averaging 23% for the full year. The company ended FY2024 with $98.8 million in cash then raised $46.3 million in 1Q25. Including our expected loss for 1Q25, we estimate cash on March 31 to be around $125 million and believe the company has sufficient operating funds into FY2026.
Preparations For Tonmya Are In Progress. Tonix has been assigned a PDUFA date of August 15, 2025, the statutory date for the FDA to answer its NDA for Tonmya (TNX-102 SL). We believe the Phase 3 trials justify approval for fibromyalgia and anticipate broad use for relief of its multiple symptoms. Based on its patient population of over 10 million patients, we believe Tonmya could be a significant revenue generator for Tonix.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, March 19, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Poised for a Return Toward Revenue Growth
Conduent (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – Building Operational Momentum for a Strong 2026
Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE)/OUTPERFORM – 4Q24 Reported With Hydronidone (F351) Data Coming In 2Q25
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Some More Business Wins
SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Pre-Releases Solid Q4 Revenue
Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$1.41 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Poised for a Return Toward Revenue Growth
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q4 results. The company reported sequential revenue growth in Q4 with revenue of $136.8 million (up from $135.3 million in Q3), better than our estimate of $125.1 million. Adj. EBITDA was $12.0 million, better than our estimate of $6.4 million.
Margin improvement. The strong adj. EBITDA margins of 8.8% in Q4 were the highest of any quarter in 2024. The impressive margins were driven by better transaction spreads at the company’s kiosks, armored transport cost reductions, and lower rents in some kiosk locations. Moreover, the company benefitted from a falloff of initial public company costs (in comparison to the prior year period).
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Conduent (CNDT/$2.99 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Building Operational Momentum for a Strong 2026
Rating: OUTPERFORM
2025 preview. We anticipate that the company’s revenue momentum will build throughout the year as new business signings take effect. Moreover, with the prospect of additional efficiencies from initiatives such as corporate-level cost reductions, and a reduction in real estate footprint, we expect adj. EBITDA margins to expand as the year progresses.
Quarterly outlook. In Q1, we expect $767 million in revenue and $14 million in adj. EBITDA, a modest 1.8% margin. However, based on growing revenue and increasing efficiency, we expect adj. EBITDA margins to improve in each subsequent quarter, culminating in margins of nearly 8% in Q4. Given our Q4 revenue estimate of $830 million, we believe the company will exit 2025 with revenue and adj. EBITDA run rates in line with its stated target ($3.2B-$3.3B in annual revenue and 8% adj. EBITDA margins).
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Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE/$8.57 | Price Target: $20)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
4Q24 Reported With Hydronidone (F351) Data Coming In 2Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Net Income Was Within Expectations. Gyre Therapeutics reported 4Q24 Net Income Attributable to Common Shareholders of $(0.1) million or $(0.00) per share and FY2024 Net Income of $12.1 million, or $0.14 per basic share and $0.05 per fully diluted share. Revenues were $105.8 million in FY2024 with gross margins of 96.3%, consistent with our revenue estimates of $101.4 million and 96.2% gross margins. As of December 31, 2024, cash on hand was $51.2 million. Separately, results of the Phase 3 clinical trial for Hydronidone will be announced in 2Q25.
Hydronidone Data Announcement Pushed To 2Q25. In its quarterly press release, the company stated that data from the Phase 3 clinical trial for Hydronidone will be announced in 2Q25, although we had expected the data in 1Q25. We do not see this as a significant delay, as it extends the timeframe by 2 to 14 weeks. We believe this can still allow for regulatory filing in China during FY2025.
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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$31.25 | Price Target: $38)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Some More Business Wins
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Business Wins. Kratos has been awarded a number of new and additions to existing contracts in March. We view these developments positively, although we remain watchful as to the impact of the ongoing continuing resolution for the Federal budget and its implications on new awards in 2025.
BQM-177A Awards. Kratos was awarded $3.4 million from the U.S. Navy for the base year of its next Contractor Logistics Support and Engineering Services contract, supporting BQM-177A aerial target system operations. If all four option years awarded under this contract are exercised, this contract has a potential value of $19.1 million. The Company also received $59.3 million for an additional 70 BQM-177A Subsonic Aerial Target aircraft through the exercise of the contract option for Full Rate Production (FRP) Lot 6.
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SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.17 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Pre-Releases Solid Q4 Revenue
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q4 pre-release. On Monday, SKYX pre-released its Q4 revenue results, reporting revenue of $23.7 million (largely aligning with our estimate of $24.0 million). Notably, the company’s revenue grew throughout 2024, from $19.0 million in Q1 to $21.4 million, $22.2 million, and $23.7 million, in the subsequent quarters.
Key leadership additions. The company recently announced the additions of Huey Long as Head of E-commerce and Greg St. John as President of Lighting, Fans and Smart Home Products. Mr. Long previously served as director of e-commerce for Amazon and as an executive at both Ashley Furniture and Walmart. Mr. St. John previously served as head of lighting at Home Depot as well as CEO of EGLO.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, March 18, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – Building on its Pipeline
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – 2024 Financial Results and 2025 Outlook
Townsquare Media (TSQ)/OUTPERFORM – Attractive Digital Momentum Continues
Bit Digital (BTBT/$2.41 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Building on its Pipeline
Rating: OUTPERFORM
4Q Results. Total revenue for the quarter was $26.1 million, as the HPC business added $14.4 million from last year. We estimated revenue of $29.6 million. Higher G&A and D&A costs partially offset a $43.4 million digital asset gain, resulting in an operating income of $28.8 million. Net income was $29.0 million from $17,700 a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA was $40.1 million from $14.0 million last year.
Pipeline Building Up. Management noted that demand has surged for the B200 GPUs, and with the introduction of DeepSeek, customers are also in demand of the H100 and H200 GPUs. Furthermore, the Company’s data center pipeline has expanded to 510MW from 288MW last quarter. With the increase in demand and management in active discussions with potential customers, we expect more agreements to be announced sooner rather than later.
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InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$1.12 | Price Target: $3.75)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
2024 Financial Results and 2025 Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Full-year 2024 financial results. InPlay Oil reported full-year net income and earnings per share of C$9.5 million and C$0.10, respectively, below our estimates of approximately C$11.4 million and C$0.12. The variance was primarily due to lower-than-expected natural gas revenue driven by weaker AECO pricing. Production for the year averaged 8,712 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) compared to 9,025 boe/d in 2023. Consequently, revenue decreased to C$153.7 million compared to C$179.4 million in 2023. Adjusted funds flow in 2024 was C$68.5 million, down from C$91.8 million in 2023.
Updated 2025 estimates. Please note that our revised estimates assume the closing of the pending Pembina acquisition on April 15th, 2025. For 2025, our oil and gas revenue estimate is C$333.5 million compared to our prior estimate of C$159.4 million. We have raised our 2025 AFF and EPS estimates to C$161.6 million and C$0.27, respectively, from C$71.7 million and C$0.14. We forecast net income of C$40.9 million, up from our previous estimate of C$13.2 million. Our 2025 estimates are based on an average annual production of 15,879 boe/d compared to our prior forecast of 8,901 boe/d.
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Townsquare Media (TSQ/$8.14 | Price Target: $21)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Attractive Digital Momentum Continues
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $117.8 million, up 2.6% year over year, and adj. EBITDA of $31.2 million, up 25.8%, both of which were modestly better than our estimates of $115.0 million and $30.4 million, respectively. Notably, the company’s digital businesses were a key revenue growth driver, up a strong 11%. Digital revenue comprised 52% of total company revenue. Notably, revenue momentum appears favorable into the second quarter.
Digital leads the way. Total digital revenue growth of 11% was comprised of digital advertising growth of 15% and a swing toward revenue growth in its subscription digital marketing solutions (DMS) of 1.9%. DMS returned to revenue growth for the first time since Q4 of 2022. Second quarter digital revenue continues to be strong, expected to increase a solid 7.3% in Q2.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, March 17, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Heightened M&A Environment and Debt Reduction Should Drive Stock Valuation
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Thoughts on RAIL’s Recent Shelf Registration
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Announces $50 Million Share Buyback
E.W. Scripps (SSP/$2.64 | Price Target: $10)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Heightened M&A Environment and Debt Reduction Should Drive Stock Valuation
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q4 Results. Revenue increased a strong 18.3% to $728.4 million, beating our $716.1 million estimate. The results benefited from better core advertising ($147.4 million vs our $143.0 million est.) and higher Political revenue ($174.4 million vs our $172.0 million est.). Adj. EBITDA was $229.6 million, better than our $226.1 million estimate.
Cost efficiency focused. The company highlighted that it is on track to deliver improved margins in its Scripps Networks division by 400 to 600 basis points in 2025. Furthermore, we anticipate the cost reductions will largely be driven by reduced headcount, followed by more modest reductions in program license costs and other expenses.
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FreightCar America (RAIL/$6.58 | Price Target: $13.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Thoughts on RAIL’s Recent Shelf Registration
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Shelf registration. FreightCar recently filed a universal shelf registration statement pertaining to the offer and sale from time to time of up to $200 million in aggregate of the company’s common stock, preferred stock, debt securities, new warrants, rights or units, and the resale by a selling stockholder, affiliates of PIMCO, of up to 17,038,583 shares of common stock. PIMCO has now registered the shares associated with its warrants which enables them to sell shares over time following the exercise of the warrants. The warrants are already reflected in RAIL’s fully diluted share count and in our financial model.
Cleaner financial reporting. The change in the fair market value of the warrant liability fluctuates each quarter in line with the change in RAIL’s stock price during the period. The valuation adjustment reflects accounting for the warrant holder’s investment. For the full year 2024, the company recognized a $99.5 million non-cash adjustment due to the change in the fair market value of the warrant liability. All shares underlying the warrants have been reflected as part of the weighted shares outstanding since their issuance in prior years. Eliminating the warrant liability and need to report on the change in its fair market value could narrow the difference between GAAP and adjusted earnings.
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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$8.65 | Price Target: $14)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Announces $50 Million Share Buyback
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Buyback Program. On Friday, Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation announced that its Board of Directors has authorized a share repurchase program pursuant to which the Company may repurchase up to $50 million of its common stock. At the current price, the $50 million equates to 5.78 million GLDD shares or approximately 8.6% of the outstanding common. The share repurchase program expires on March 14, 2026.
Rationale. According to management, “Our business is strong, as we delivered in 2024 the second best results in our Company’s history. The outlook for 2025 and 2026 is also strong, with $1.2 billion in backlog as of December 31, 2024. Our new build program is also expected to be substantially completed in 2025. We believe the Company’s current share price does not reflect the strength of our business and that a share repurchase program will be accretive to our shareholders.”
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, March 14, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – FY2024 Report Reviews A Pivotal Year For Tecarfarin
Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL)/MARKET PERFORM – Making Progress
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 2024 Financial and Operating Performance; Updating Estimates
Zomedica (ZOM)/OUTPERFORM – Sales Growth Continued In FY2024; Stock Price Discussed
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$17.45 | Price Target: $45)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
FY2024 Report Reviews A Pivotal Year For Tecarfarin
Rating: OUTPERFORM
FY2024 Was A Productive Year. Cadrenal reported a 4Q24 loss of $4.2 million or $(2.55) per share and FY2024 loss of $10.7 million or $(8.73) per share. An important development discussed in our Research Note on March 5 was Cadrenal’s announcement of a collaborative agreement with Abbott (ABT, Not Rated) for support of its pivotal trial testing tecarfarin in patients with left ventricular assist (LVAD) devices. Cash and equivalents on December 31 were $10.0 million.
Tecarfarin Is In Development For Several Patient Populations With Coagulation Needs. Many patients that are at risk for cardiovascular events (stroke, embolism, deep vein thrombosis) take anticoagulants in the direct oral anticoagulant class (DOACs, such as Eliquis or Xarelto). However, there are several patient populations that must take warfarin, an older drug, due to lack of efficacy or high bleeding risk. Tecarfarin is being developed to replace warfarin in these populations. Cadrenal has Orphan Drug designation from the FDA for implanted mechanical devices (LVADs) and prevention of systemic thromboembolism in end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and atrial fibrillation (AFib).
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Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL/$1.89)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Making Progress
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Making Progress. Comtech made some progress in its business transformation during the fiscal second quarter, although business conditions remain challenging. The most significant change came post quarter-end with the amendment to its senior secured credit agreement that cures the covenant breaches as of January 31, 2025.
2Q25 Results. Revenue totaled $126.6 million, down 5.7% from the year ago period, but up 9.3% sequentially. Gross margin of 26.7% fell y-o-y, but improved sequentially from 12.5% in 1Q25. Comtech reported a net loss of $48.7 million, before preferred stock adjustments, compared to a net loss of $10.6 million in 2Q24. Adjusted net loss was $0.35/sh compared to a net loss of $0.15/sh last year.
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FreightCar America (RAIL/$7.32 | Price Target: $13.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Solid 2024 Financial and Operating Performance; Updating Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Full year 2024 financial results. FreightCar America generated 2024 adjusted net income to common stockholders of $4.4 million or $0.15 per share compared to a loss of $11.0 million or $(0.39) per share in 2023 and our estimate of $5.5 million or $0.17 per share. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue increased to 12.0% compared to 11.7% in FY 2023. Revenue and rail car deliveries increased to $559.4 million and 4,362 compared to $358.1 million and 3,022 in 2023. We had forecast revenue of $577.4 million and deliveries of 4,550. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $43.0 million compared to $20.1 million in 2023 and our estimate of $38.3 million. Full year adjusted free cash flow amounted to $21.7 million versus $(17.6) million in 2023.
Full Year 2025 corporate guidance. Management issued full year 2025 guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 4,500 to 4,900, revenue is expected to be in the range of $530 million to $595 million, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $43 to $49 million. Compared to 2024, railcar deliveries, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA are expected to increase 7.7%, 0.6%, and 7.0%, respectively, at the midpoints of guidance.
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Zomedica (ZOM/$0.04 | Price Target: $0.25)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Sales Growth Continued In FY2024; Stock Price Discussed
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Product Sales Drove Revenue Growth. Zomedica reported 4Q24 revenues of $7.9 million and FY2024 revenues $27.3 million, in line with our estimates of $8.0 million and $27.5 million. Gross Margins were 70.0% as expected, with a loss for FY2024 of $46.9 million or $(0.05) per share. Cash and equivalents on December 31 was $71.4 million.
CEO Addressed Recent Stock Delisting. At the beginning of the quarterly conference call, CEO Larry Heaton spoke about the events leading to the delisting from the New York American Exchange earlier this month. As discussed in our Research Note on March 11, the recent market weakness brought the stock below the threshold for continued listing. This weakness led to a move to the OTCQB Venture Market, causing further weakness.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, March 13, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – FreightCar Provides Outlook for 2025; Investor Webinar at 11:00 AM ET
FreightCar America (RAIL/$6.23 | Price Target: $13.75)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
FreightCar Provides Outlook for 2025; Investor Webinar at 11:00 AM ET
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Full year 2024 financial results. FreightCar America generated 2024 adjusted net income to common stockholders of $4.5 million or $0.15 per share compared to a loss of $11.0 million or $(0.39) per share in 2023 and our estimate of $5.5 million or $0.17 per share. Gross margin as a percentage of revenue increased to 12.0% compared to 11.7% in FY 2023. Revenue and rail car deliveries increased to $559.4 million and 4,362 compared to $358.1 million and 3,022 in 2023. We had forecast revenue of $577.4 million and deliveries of 4,550. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $43.0 million compared to $20.1 million in 2023 and our estimate of $38.3 million. Full year adjusted free cash flow amounted to $21.7 million versus $(17.6) million in 2023.
Full Year 2025 corporate guidance. Management issued full year 2025 guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 4,500 to 4,900, revenue is expected to be in the range of $530 million to $595 million, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $43 to $49 million. Compared to 2024, railcar deliveries, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA are expected to increase 7.7%, 0.6%, and 7.0%, respectively, at the midpoints of guidance. Our current 2025 estimates include railcar deliveries of 4,675 units, revenue of $580.6 million and EBITDA of $44.9 million.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, March 12, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – Tough End to a Challenging Year
E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Takes Steps To Assuage Debt Concerns
Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – Digital Growth Strategy Appears To Be Gaining Traction
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$1.79 | Price Target: $4)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Tough End to a Challenging Year
Rating: OUTPERFORM
4Q Results. CVG reported 4Q24 revenue of $163.3 million, down 15.7% y-o-y due to ongoing weakness in the Construction and Ag markets, as well as a drop in Class 8 truck builds. Adjusted EBITDA was $0.9 million, down from $8.3 million. CVG reported an adjusted loss from continuing operations of $5.1 million, or a loss of $0.15/sh, compared to adjusted net income of $2.1 million, or EPS of $0.06, in 4Q23.
Strategic Initiatives. The Company implemented a number of strategic initiatives during 2024, including portfolio rationalization and the elimination of some 1,300 positions. These should result in some $15 million of gross savings in 2025, which should help improve margins.
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E.W. Scripps (SSP/$1.43 | Price Target: $10)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Takes Steps To Assuage Debt Concerns
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q4 results exceed expectations. Revenues increased a strong 18.3% to $728.4 million, beating our $716.1 million estimate. The results benefited from better core advertising ($147.4 million vs our $143.0 million est.) and higher Political revenue ($174.4 million vs our $172.0 million est.). Adj. EBITDA was $229.6 million, better than our $226.1 million estimate. Figure #1 Q4 Results highlight our estimates versus reported results.
Sluggish start. Management provided lackluster Q1 revenue guidance, expecting Local Media revenue to be down high single- digits with Scripps Networks revenue to be down mid single-digits. The sluggish Q1 reflects the absence of Political revenue, but likely weak core spot and National spot advertising. Notably, management guided interest expense to be $175 million to $185 million, less than our estimate of roughly $200 million.
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Saga Communications (SGA/$12.11 | Price Target: $24)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Digital Growth Strategy Appears To Be Gaining Traction
Rating: OUTPERFORM
An in-line quarter. The company reported Q4 revenue of $28.8 million and adj. EBITDA of $3.1 million, both of which declined over the prior year period, but were modestly better than our estimates of $27.7 million and $2.3 million, respectively. Notably, the company is focused on its blended digital growth strategy and reducing costs and improving profitability. We believe the company’s strategic actions are a step in the right direction for returning toward revenue and adj. EBITDA growth.
Cost-effective digital growth strategy. A key focus of the company is reducing costs that have no impact on revenue and continuing to emphasize the roll out of its blended digital advertising strategy. Notably, the blended strategy combines radio and digital advertising to provide a consistent message to customers on both mediums and to drive radio listeners to digital platforms. We view the company’s emphasis on the unique strategy favorably.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, March 11, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Estimates to Reflect AVAIL Transaction
Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE)/OUTPERFORM – Initiation of Coverage: Focused On Fibrosis
Zomedica (ZOM)/OUTPERFORM – Fundamentals Have Been Improving, But Price Weakness Leads To Delisting
AZZ (AZZ/$87.73 | Price Target: $112)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Updating Estimates to Reflect AVAIL Transaction
Rating: OUTPERFORM
AVAIL joint venture. Through a joint venture, AZZ owns a non-controlling 40% interest in Avail Infrastructure Solutions with the remaining 60% owned by the Fernweh Group LLC. Avail recently executed a definitive agreement to sell its Electrical Products Group to nVent Electric plc (NYSE: NVT) for $975 million, subject to adjustments. The transaction is expected to close during the first half of the 2025 calendar year. AZZ will continue to own a 40% interest in Avail which will consist of its Industrial Lighting and Welding Solutions businesses.
Use of proceeds. AZZ will use its share of the transaction proceeds to further reduce debt or fund potential M&A activity. The gain on the transaction will be treated as a one-time adjustment to net income and EPS. A reduction in the $16 million to $18 million of joint venture equity income included in AZZ’s fiscal year 2026 guidance is expected to be offset by interest savings. While AZZ is not adjusting its fiscal year 2026 earnings guidance, debt reduction will be higher than the range of $140 million to $160 million provided in their guidance.
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Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE/$10.33 | Price Target: $20)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Initiation of Coverage: Focused On Fibrosis
Rating: OUTPERFORM
We Are Initiating Coverage Of Gyre Therapeutics With An Outperform Rating. Gyre Therapeutics is a pharmaceutical company developing drugs for inflammatory diseases that lead to fibrosis. It currently markets Etuary (pirfenidone) in China for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. The lead drug in the pipeline is Hydronidone, a new molecule derived from pirfenidone, that is in a Phase 3 clinical trial in China. The data announcement is expected to report Phase 3 clinical trial results in March 2025.
Hydronidone Was Developed To Improve Efficacy and Side Effects. Hydronidone is a structural analogue of pirfenidone that was developed to improve efficacy with a more tolerable side effect profile. It is in Phase 3 trial in China for fibrosis of the liver after hepatitis B (HBV) infections. Hydronidone targets steps in the Transforming Growth Factor (TGF)-ß1 pathway as well as the downstream genes and liver cells it activates to produce fibrotic tissue. Data from the Phase 3 in China will be used to design a Phase 2a trial in the US, expected to begin in late FY2025.
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Zomedica (ZOM/$0.1 | Price Target: $0.25)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Fundamentals Have Been Improving, But Price Weakness Leads To Delisting
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Recent Price Weakness Forces Move To The OTC Bulletin Board. As the recent decline in the overall markets was affecting companies in many sectors, the closing price of Zomedica stock fell below $0.10 per share on March 3. This crossed a threshold set by the New York American exchange, forcing the delisting of ZOM shares. Zomedica shares began trading on the OTCQB Venture Market under the symbol ZOMDF. There were no other events or crisis that caused the delisting.
During 2024, Zomedica Has Met All Of The Product Goals We Expected. Over the past year, Zomedica has introduced several new assays for use with its TRUFORMA diagnostics platform. These assays are sold to veterinary practices for use with TRUFORMA diagnostic instruments, allowing the veterinarian to run tests without sending samples to an outside lab. This allows the diagnosis in a few minutes and allows the practice to capture the profit from the tests. The TRUFORMA assays, reported as diagnostic consumables, have been one of the sources of sales growth over the past year.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, March 10, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Full Year 2024 Review and Outlook
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – Diversifying Revenue Sources
Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – Noticing Positive Trends in 2025
The ODP Corporation (ODP)/OUTPERFORM – New Partnership
Comstock (LODE/$2.59)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Full Year 2024 Review and Outlook
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Investor webinar. On March 6, Comstock hosted a webinar to discuss the company’s full year 2024 results and provided a comprehensive business update. Management highlighted significant accomplishments achieved in 2024 and its plans for 2025.
Upcoming events. While Comstock summarized corporate and subsidiary-level objectives for 2025, we view several as significant. These include: 1) Comstock Fuels’ completion of offtake, joint development, and warrant agreements with Marathon Petroleum Corporation on or before June 30, 2025, 2) completion of a Comstock Fuels Series A financing during the second quarter, 3) construction of Comstock Metals’ first large-scale recycling facility at a cost of $6 million, 4) advancement of project level financing for subsidiary projects, and 5) the sale of Comstock’s properties and water rights in Silver Springs, Nevada in the latter part of 2025.
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Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.9)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Diversifying Revenue Sources
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Focus on rebuilding revenue. Over the past several months, the company has been focused on diversifying its revenue streams as it rebuilds revenue. Prior to Q3, the company’s largest sell-side customer accounted for roughly 80% of the segment’s revenue. After the large client reduced volume, negatively impacting Q3 results, the company is focused on not letting any one client comprise more than 20% – 30% of revenue.
New joint venture. On March 5, the company announced a new joint venture, Teranexa, with Green Tea Technology. This venture is focused on utilizing AI to improve efficiencies in small and medium-sized cities. Notably, Teranexa will combine the company’s data monetization expertise with Green Tea’s experience in IT project deployment, leveraging its partner network of IBM and HPE.
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Information Services Group (III/$3.3 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Noticing Positive Trends in 2025
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Improved Metrics. While fourth quarter revenue was down on a reported basis, it was in-line with our expectations and at the upper-end of management’s $57-$58 million guidance. Importantly, ISG delivered an improved gross margin of 41.5% from 38.3% last year due to higher utilization and the sale of its automation unit. Flowing through to the bottom line, adjusted EBITDA had an improved margin of 11.3% from 8.9% last year.
A Year of Headwinds. Fiscal year 2024 was highlighted by headwinds for the Company, as its clients delayed decision making throughout the year. Uncertainty regarding the macroenvironment, geopolitical conflict in Europe, and political uncertainty impacted spending in 2024.
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The ODP Corporation (ODP/$16.61 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
New Partnership
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Partnership. The ODP Corporation continued its B2B push with the signing of a new partnership agreement with CoreTrust. The agreement marks the latest in a series of new contracts for ODP Business Solutions, moving the segment into new, growing industries. Through this partnership, ODP Business Solutions will offer products and services to CoreTrust’s 3,500+ business member purchasing collective, which serves major industries including retail, manufacturing, hospitality, and finance.
Details. Under the contract, ODP Business Solutions will supply CoreTrust members with high-quality solutions, including interiors/furniture, technology, breakroom supplies, and paint, promotion, and apparel services at an exceptional value. These categories are expected to expand industry wide by a 4-6% compound annual growth rate over the next five years.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, March 7, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – A Peak into the Fourth Quarter
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Transformation Taking Effect
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Record Profitability in 2024; Updating 2025 Estimates
Information Services Group (III/$3.1 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
A Peak into the Fourth Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth Quarter Results. Revenue for the quarter totaled $57.8 million, nearing the top of management’s guidance and in-line with our estimate of $58 million. Net income totaled $3.0 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, an improvement from a loss of $2.9 million or $0.06 per share, last year. We estimated a net loss of $0.2 million or breakeven per share. Adjusted EBITDA was $6.5 million, the midpoint of management’s guidance and above our estimate of $6 million.
More Cash in Hand. ISG generated cash from operations of $6.6 million during the quarter, and with the sale of the automation unit last quarter, had total cash on hand of $23.1 million at the end of the quarter, up 138% from the prior quarter. Debt declined to 25% y-o-y to $59.2 million as of December 31, 2024. Management maintained a goal of 2.0-2.5x debt to EBITDA ratio.
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NN (NNBR/$2.59 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Transformation Taking Effect
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Remain on Track. The first full year of NN’s transformation produced significant results, although the improvements were somewhat obscured in the GAAP reported results. With the successful change in the business trajectory, NN remains on track to achieve its 2028 financial goals of $650 million of net sales, with an adjusted EBITDA margin in the 12-13% range.
More Transformation in 2025. Management is not resting on its laurels. 2025 will continue the transformation plan with specific emphasis on improving or eliminating underperforming business, additional costs out, new business wins, and balance sheet improvement through a debt refinance.
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Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$7.07 | Price Target: $13)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Record Profitability in 2024; Updating 2025 Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth quarter financial results. Seanergy Maritime reported fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share (EPS) of $20.4 million and $0.34, respectively, exceeding our estimates of $19.3 million and $0.27. Revenue was modestly above our estimate due to better-than-expected available operating days, while expenses were marginally lower-than-expected, driven by operational efficiencies for voyage and vessel expenses. Operating income was $10.7 million compared to our estimate of $10.1 million.
2025 market outlook. Capesize rates fell in early 2025 due to an increase in the effective supply of vessels caused by low congestion in ports and smaller vessels taking on cargo typically reserved for the Capesize fleet. However, Capesize market rates have since rebounded and are expected to stay relatively steady throughout 2025. Limited new vessel orders and deliveries, increasing environmental regulations, and rising iron ore and bauxite exports are supporting Cape vessel rates amid a broader downturn in the dry-bulk market.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, March 6, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Estimates; Raising PT
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – South Texas to Resume Operations
FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – A Look into the Fourth Quarter
Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – Ocugen Reports FY2024 With Progress Toward “3 BLA Filings In 3 Years”
AZZ (AZZ/$90.03 | Price Target: $112)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Updating Estimates; Raising PT
Rating: OUTPERFORM
A market leader with a strong growth profile. AZZ is the leading independent provider of hot dip galvanizing and coil coating solutions to a broad range of end markets. We expect AZZ Precoat Metals’ new manufacturing facility in Washington, Missouri to contribute to top-line growth in fiscal year 2026 while capital expenditures decline. Approximately 75% of the facility’s production is already committed and could generate $50 million to $60 million in revenue on an annualized basis once production is fully ramped.
Fiscal 2026 corporate guidance. In early February, AZZ Inc. released financial guidance for fiscal year 2026 and expects sales in the range of $1.625 billion to $1.725 billion, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $360 million to $400 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of $5.50 to $6.10. Fiscal year 2026 guidance included an increase in the Metal Coatings EBITDA margin expectations to a range of 27% to 32% from 25% to 30%, while Precoat Metals EBITDA margin expectations are unchanged at 17% to 22%.
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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$18.4 | Price Target: $25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
South Texas to Resume Operations
Rating: OUTPERFORM
South Texas to Resume. Yesterday, CoreCivic announced a new intergovernmental agreement to resume operations at the 2,400-bed South Texas Family Residential Center in Dilley, Texas, for ICE. CoreCivic has entered into a new lease agreement with Target Hospitality, the owner of the facility, over period concurrent with the ICE agreement. We view this a further confirmation of the Federal government’s need for additional bed capacity in the drive to deport undocumented migrants.
Details. The amended IGSA expires in March 2030 and may be further extended through bilateral modification. The agreement provides for a fixed monthly payment in accordance with a graduated schedule to correlate with the activation of each neighborhood within the facility. Once fully activated, total annual revenue is expected to be approximately $180 million, including medical services. With the Company having already started pre-activation activities earlier this year, we expect this award to be accretive to earnings beginning in the second quarter of 2025.
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FAT Brands (FAT/$3.15 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Post Call Commentary
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Twin Hospitality. Significant opportunity remains at Twin Hospitality. The Company ended the year with 115 Twin Peaks lodges, having opened nine new lodges. Twin Hospitality expects to open an additional 9-11 lodges in 2025, with 6-7 franchised and an additional 10-15 lodges in both 2026 and 2027. The Company has over 100 signed franchised commitments and the remaining conversion of approximately 30 Smokey Bones locations to drive new openings.
New Openings. FAT Brands expects to open over 100 new locations in 2025, with 17 already opened year-to-date. We anticipate strong organic growth across the portfolio in 2025. The current development pipeline consists of signed agreements for approximately 1,000 additional locations, including over 250 units signed in 2024. Once these units are opened, we expect them to generate approximately $50 million in incremental annual adjusted EBITDA.
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NN (NNBR/$2.7 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
A Look into the Fourth Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Year of Transformation. Management highlighted its first full year of transformation, as the Company upgraded leadership positions and added to its Stamped Products, Electrical, and Medical teams. They also secured new business to offset rationalized business and create a path to y-o-y growth, increased gross margins, and decreased leverage to name a few actions. Lastly, the underperforming plants are expected to generate positive EBITDA in the new year compared to a negative $11.5 million last year.
New Business Wins. The Company had $73 million of new business wins for the fiscal year, surpassing the previous year of $63 million. As for 2025, the Company has $13 million in new wins year-to-date and remains on pace towards its guidance of $60-$70 million in new wins for the year. These wins are expected to soon ramp into Company sales as well, with roughly $21 million of new business expected to launch in Q1 2025 across multiple plants and countries.
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Ocugen (OCGN/$0.57 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Ocugen Reports FY2024 With Progress Toward “3 BLA Filings In 3 Years”
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Clinical Progress Expected To Lead To Filings For Three Product Approvals. Ocugen reported a 4Q24 loss of $13.9 million or $(0.05) per share and FY2024 loss of $54.1 million or $(0.20) per share. The company made significant progress in its clinical trials during the quarter and since the start of FY2025. It has also received regulatory designations that accelerate product approval. The company had $58.5 million in cash on December 31, sufficient to fund operations through 1Q26.
Clinical Trial Advances Point To Three BLAs In 3 Years. Ocugen has made significant progress with three products for three diseases that lead to vision loss. The three ongoing trials are Phase 3 for OCU400, the Phase 2/3 for OCU410ST in Stargardt disease, and the Phase 1/2 trial for GA. These trials are on schedule for filing applications for approval in 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively. OCU400 and OCU410ST have Orphan Drug designations that can accelerate approval, while GA is a large market of over 10 million patients in the US alone.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, March 5, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – Development Agreement With Abbott Brings Another Tecarfarin Indication To Clinical Trials
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Upgrading to Outperform with $32 PT
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$17.57 | Price Target: $45)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Development Agreement With Abbott Brings Another Tecarfarin Indication To Clinical Trials
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Cadrenal and Abbott Announce The LVAD Collaboration We’ve Been Waiting For. Cadrenal announced a development agreement with Abbott (ABT, Not Rated) to develop Tecarfarin in patients with Abbott’s HeartMate3 LVAD (left ventricle assist device). Under the agreement, Abbott will support Cadrenal’s pivotal TECH-VLAD (TECarfarin Anticoagulation and Hemocompatibility with Left Ventricular Assist Devices) trial in its design, site selection, recruitment, and its HeartMate3 experience.
LVAD Patients Have An Unmet Need For A New Anticoagulant. While Direct Oral Anticoagulation Drug (DOAC) category has been highly successful, there are several populations where they are not effective or have safety risks. Patients with LVAD devices can only use warfarin, a drug that has variable efficacy with several drawbacks, including a requirement for frequent patient monitoring. LVAD patients have less effective anticoagulation and remain at high risk for coagulation events (bleeding, stroke, myocardial infarct).
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The GEO Group (GEO/$25.9 | Price Target: $32)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Upgrading to Outperform with $32 PT
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Upgrading to Outperform. We are upgrading GEO shares to Outperform with a $32 near-term price target. We believe there is substantial opportunity just in filling existing beds under current contracts, with the opening of currently idle facilities, new facilities, and expansion of the ISAP program providing additional upside.
Opportunity. GEO has an additional 17,000 beds to provide for ICE detention requirements, which would increase GEO’s overall bed capacity for ICE to about 32,000 beds. The incremental 17,000 beds includes approximately 9,400 beds in current idle facilities that will be reconfigured for detention use and approximately 7,700 incremental beds available at existing GEO serviced ICE and U.S. Marshal’s facilities under contract. Management estimates the utilization of these additional 17,000 beds could generate between $500 million and $600 million in incremental annualized revenues, with margins consistent with secure services owned facilities which average 25% to 30%.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, March 4, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – OCU410 and OCU410ST Receive ATMP Classification in Europe
The ODP Corporation (ODP)/OUTPERFORM – Doubling Down on B2B
Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL)/MARKET PERFORM – Some Breathing Space
Ocugen (OCGN/$0.61 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
OCU410 and OCU410ST Receive ATMP Classification In Europe
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Ocugen Now Has Three Products With ATMP Designation. Two Ocugen products, OCU410 and OCU410ST, received Advanced Therapy Medicinal Product (ATMP) designation from the European Medicines Agency Committee for Advanced Therapies (EMA-CAT). These join OCU400, which received this designation for retinitis pigmentosa (RP) in February 2025. The designation is similar to the Breakthrough Therapy designation from the FDA, allowing increased interactions with the regulators and accelerating regulatory review.
OCU410 Has Completed Phase 2 Dosing In GA. The Phase 2 portion of the ArMaDa (pronounced ‘Armada”) trial has completed enrollment for OCU410 in geographic atrophy (GA), a lesion that results from advancing dry Age-related Macular Degeneration (dry AMD). The study has enrolled 51 patients randomized into a high dose arm, medium dose arm, or control. The completion of the dosing phase was ahead of our expected time frame, keeping the company on schedule to conduct Phase 3 in 2026 and potentially file for regulatory approval in 2028.
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The ODP Corporation (ODP/$14.42 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Doubling Down on B2B
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Macro Headwinds. While macro headwinds remain in the B2B and B2C segments, green shoots are appearing, with new B2B contracts and an expanding pipeline of new business opportunities. Over at retail, the Company has seen improved traction with targeted profitable sales campaigns and value added promotions.
Playing to its Strengths. Project “Optimize for Growth” and the B2B focus plays into ODP’s core strengths, such as robust supply chain assets, distribution capabilities, and an expansive B2B customer base. We believe these moves position ODP to unlock sustainable growth and long-term success.
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Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL/$1.61)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Some Breathing Space
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
New Capital Infusion. Last night, after the market closed, Comtech Telecommunications announced a new $40 million capital infusion from the current holders of Comtech’s convertible preferred and subordinated debt, or White Hat Capital and Magnetar Financial. The new capital infusion is made on the same terms and conditions as the prior subordinated debt investment.
Uses. Of the $40 million infusion, $27.3 million is being used to prepay the senior secured term loan and $3.2 million to reduce the revolving credit facility, with a waiver of the prepayment penalties that would have been owed in accordance with the terms of the credit agreement.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, March 3, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Strategic Partnership with Marathon Petroleum
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Fourth Quarter and FY 2024 Review and Outlook
Comstock (LODE/$2.4)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Strategic Partnership with Marathon Petroleum
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Marathon investment in Comstock Fuels. Comstock Fuels entered into definitive agreements with subsidiaries of Marathon Petroleum Corporation, including the purchase of $14.0 million in Comstock Fuels equity as part of Comstock’s planned Series A preferred equity financing. Consideration includes $13.0 million in payment-in-kind (PIK) assets comprised of equipment, intellectual property, and other materials at Marathon’s former renewable fuel demonstration facility in Madison, WI. While the PIK assets were transferred as of the February 28 effective date, the cash portion will be received within five business days of Comstock Fuels’ execution of third-party Series A financing agreements totaling at least $25.0 million.
Key elements of the agreements. The agreements included: 1) an agreement for future equity governing the portion of the investment issued in exchange for the PIK assets, 2) an asset transfer agreement to assign the PIK assets, 3) a license agreement covering applicable intellectual property, 4) an agreement to provide post-closing conditions, and 5) a board observer agreement executed as of the effective date. Separately, Comstock executed a commercial lease for the Madison facility at a rate of $44,000 per month.
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Euroseas (ESEA/$35.4 | Price Target: $51)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Fourth Quarter and FY 2024 Review and Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth quarter results. Euroseas reported fourth quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share (EPS) of $32.8 million and $3.33, respectively, compared to our estimates of $34.7 million and $3.66. While revenues were generally in line with our estimates, operating expenses were higher than expected. Drydocking expenses were ~$1.7 million above our estimates, while general and administrative expenses were ~$600 thousand above our estimates due to higher share-based compensation.
2025 outlook. Container ship charter rates remained stable in the fourth quarter, with feeder and intermediate segments showing modest gains in early 2025. While ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea continue to support rates, the potential reopening of the Suez Canal could have a negative impact. The global containership orderbook remains high, and vessels have started to come to market. While a large orderbook poses risks, the feeder and intermediate sectors where Euroseas operates face limited new supply and aging fleets.
