Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, April 11, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – Is It Time To Buy The Stock?
Saga Communications (SGA/$11.5 | Price Target: $18)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Is It Time To Buy The Stock?
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Attractive opportunity. The SGA stock is down 48% over the past year, which we believe is largely due to macroeconomic uncertainty impacting advertising revenue and a digital segment that is still early in its development. With some of the noise related to the late filing and activist shareholders quelled for the time being, the company is fully focused on its growth strategy. Given that radio stocks typically experience early cycle recoveries, we believe investors should have the SGA shares on their radar screens.
Cost-effective digital growth strategy. A key focus of the company is reducing costs that have no impact on revenue and continuing to emphasize the roll out of its blended digital advertising strategy. Notably, the blended strategy combines radio and digital advertising to provide a consistent message to customers on both mediums and to drive radio listeners to digital platforms. We view the company’s emphasis on the unique strategy favorably.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 10, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Working Capital
Snail (SNAL/$0.77 | Price Target: $4)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Increasing Working Capital
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Completes a private placement. The Company completed a private placement offering of two unsecured convertible promissory notes for a combined total of $3.3 million. The notes were sold at a 10% discount to the principal amount and will pay a 5% Paid-In-Kind (PIK) annualized dividend. The proceeds will be used to increase working capital to support its projects and game releases in 2025.
Convertible features. The notes are convertible into shares of Class A Common Stock at $5.00 on any trading day during the five trading days prior to the conversion date. The notes mature in February 2026. Interest to be Paid-In-Kind (PIK) on the convertible notes will begin May 2025 and will be paid in 10 equal payments.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 9, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – A Strong U.S. Economy Relies on Abundant, Affordable and Reliable Energy Sources
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – New Business; Successful ReFi
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$25.87 | Price Target: $32)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
A Strong U.S. Economy Relies on Abundant, Affordable and Reliable Energy Sources
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Biden-era policies disadvantaged coal-fired power plants. In May 2024, the Environmental Protection Agency published a final rule that amended the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) rule to make it more stringent. The rule placed severe burdens on coal-fired power plants and required compliance with standards premised on the application of costly emissions-control technologies that, for many coal plants, were not commercially viable. The new carbon emission rules were expected to accelerate coal-fired power plant retirements.
Taking a pragmatic and realistic approach. On April 8, President Trump took actions through proclamation and executive order to, 1) reinvigorate the U.S. coal industry, 2) protect American energy from state overreach, 3) strengthen the reliability and security of the United States electric grid, and 4) provide two years of relief from stringent Biden-era environmental regulations by allowing certain coal plants to comply with a less stringent version of the MATS rule. Moreover, the actions are intended to reduce regulatory burdens and promote coal exports.
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V2X (VVX/$45.66 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
New Business; Successful ReFi
Rating: OUTPERFORM
COBRA DANE. V2X has been awarded a $62 million contract extension to continue ensuring the operational readiness of the COBRA DANE radar system in Alaska. In addition to ensuring operational readiness, V2X has incorporated various engineering enhancements into this essential system, extending its capabilities and readiness. This full-spectrum support emphasizes V2X’s differentiated capabilities, in our view. The extension work is expected to be completed by March 2027.
TESS ID/IQ. V2X won a seat on the Bridge to Enduring Synthetic Training Environment Tactical Engagement Simulation Systems (TESS). This contract supports the U.S. Army’s TESS devices, a vital component of its live training capabilities, by extending their product life and ensuring they meet the Army’s evolving requirements. The ID/IQ contract includes a ten-year performance period consisting of a five-year base period and two options with a ceiling value of $921 million. This award complements V2X’s previously won $3.7 billion Warfighter Readiness task order.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 8, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Monica
GDEV (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – A More Profitable Growth Outlook
Euroseas (ESEA/$28.13 | Price Target: $44)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Monica
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New time charter contract. Euroseas Ltd. executed a time charter contract for the M/V Monica at a gross daily rate of $23,500 for a minimum period of 24 months, with an option to extend to a maximum of 26 months at the charterer’s option. The M/V Monica is a 1,800 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) feeder container ship. The new charter is expected to commence between the end of April and mid-May 2025.
Attractive rate and improved charter coverage. The new time charter is an improvement over the previous contract rate of $16,000 per day and is expected to contribute EBITDA of $12.1 million during the minimum contracted period. The new time charter enhances Euroseas’ charter coverage for the remainder of 2025 and 2026 to ~94% and ~58%, respectively.
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GDEV (GDEV/$9.7 | Price Target: $70)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
A More Profitable Growth Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $97.5 million, modestly lower than our estimate of $101.0 million, but adj. EBITDA of $12.2 million was substantially better than our estimate of a loss of $1.9 million. The adj. EBITDA beat was largely driven by the company’s efficient use of selling and marketing expenses, which were 25% lower than our estimate.
Key operating metrics. In Q4, the company generated $94 million in bookings and had 292,000 monthly paying users (MPU). Bookings were largely in line with our expectations, while MPUs were modestly lower than we anticipated. Importantly, the decrease in MPU’s moderated from the quarter-over-quarter decrease experienced in Q3, and the company’s strategic marketing efforts appear to be gaining traction.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 7, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Plenty Of Near Term Catalysts
E.W. Scripps (SSP/$2.38 | Price Target: $10)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Plenty Of Near Term Catalysts
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Notes from recent investor meetings. This report highlights comments from Jason Combs, CFO, and Carolyn Micheli, VP Corp. Communications, on a Non-Deal Roadshow to California on April 2, 2025. Topics of discussion included the timing of debt refinancings, deregulation prospects, current advertising environment, Retransmission growth, and revenue prospects from the implementation of a new broadcast standard, ATCS 3.0.
Debt refi to be completed imminently. The company is expected to imminently announce the securitization of $450 million of its accounts receivable, with a portion of the proceeds to be used to pay down its 2026 term loan and extending its revolver to mid-2027. Notably, the interest rate on the refi is a modest 70 basis points above the original revolver. The company also pushed the maturities of its 2026 term loan and 2028 term loan 2 years and 1 year, respectively.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, April 4, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – While the Tariff Overhang is Removed, RAIL Shares Remain Undervalued
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Challenges Remain, But Some Positive Signs
FreightCar America (RAIL/$5 | Price Target: $13.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
While the Tariff Overhang is Removed, RAIL Shares Remain Undervalued
Rating: OUTPERFORM
No direct tariff impact. While the Trump administration recently announced sweeping new tariffs, goods from Mexico and Canada that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade agreement remain exempt from tariffs, except for automobile exports and steel and aluminum, which fall under separate tariffs. FreightCar America sources most of its raw materials, including aluminum, from the United States.
Return to business as usual. FreightCar America, along with customers in its addressable markets, have greater certainty regarding tariff policies, which could promote a return to business as usual for those that might have previously deferred orders due to uncertainty. While the Trump administration’s trade policies could have implications for U.S. and global economic growth, we believe the tariffs are negotiable. Importantly, because RAIL continues to increase its market share serving an industry that is in a replacement cycle, we do not anticipate a change in RAIL’s near-term sales trajectory despite the potential for slower economic growth.
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Resources Connection (RGP/$5.32 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Challenges Remain, But Some Positive Signs
Rating: OUTPERFORM
3Q25 Results. Results came in-line or better than management’s expectations. Revenue was $129.4 million, modestly short of our $132 million estimate. Gross margin of 35.1% was just above the high end of guidance and our 34.8% estimate. The bottom line was impacted by a $42 million goodwill impairment charge, resulting in an adjusted loss of $0.08/sh for the quarter.
Challenging Environment. The professional services environment remains challenging, especially in the U.S., given the economic uncertainty. However, the Company is seeing positive signs in the International business. Several key performance indicators, including bill rate increases, sizeable pipeline expansion, and the return of $1M+ project pursuits, point to a brighter future.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 3, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
GDEV (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – Marketing Strategy Hits Its Stride
Government Solutions (Government Solutions) – New ICE Emergency Funding?
MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – A Cannabis Brands Company; Initiating Coverage
GDEV (GDEV/$10.87 | Price Target: $70)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Marketing Strategy Hits Its Stride
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $97.5 million, modestly lower than our estimate of $101.0 million, but adj. EBITDA of $12.2 million was substantially better than our estimate of a loss of $1.9 million, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. The adj. EBITDA beat was largely driven by the company’s efficient use of selling and marketing expenses, which was 25% lower than our estimate.
Key operating metrics. In Q4, the company generated $94 million in bookings and had 292,000 monthly paying users (MPU). Bookings were largely in line with our expectations, while MPUs were modestly lower than we anticipated. Importantly, the decrease in MPU’s moderated from the quarter-over-quarter decrease experienced in Q3, and the company’s strategic marketing efforts appear to be gaining traction.
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Government Solutions
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
New ICE Emergency Funding?
Emergency Funding. On Tuesday, the Department of Homeland Security submitted on SAM.gov for an emergency detention and related services strategic sourcing vehicle to bring an additional allotment of detention beds online nationwide, in compliance with the President’s Declaration of a National Emergency at the Southern Border of the United States and related Executive Orders. The maximum ceiling value of the vehicle is $45 billion.
Details. Under the RFP, the government anticipates making multiple indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract awards. It appears the contract will have a two-year period of performance, from April 14, 2025, through April 13, 2027. Responses are due by April 4th. Under the scope of work, the vendor may be required to provide infrastructure, staffing, services, and/or supplies necessary to provide safe and secure confinement for aliens in the administrative custody of ICE. Ground transportation services may also be required.
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MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.09 | Price Target: $0.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Cannabis Brands Company; Initiating Coverage
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating Research Coverage. We are initiating research coverage of MariMed, Inc. with an Outperform rating and a $0.25 price target. MariMed is a cannabis brand powerhouse, in our view, with leading market shares in current markets and significant expansion potential both within existing markets and new greenfield markets.
MSO. With operations in six states, MariMed is a vertically integrated seed-to-sale cannabis provider. Following in the footsteps of successful consumer brands companies, MariMed has three market leading brands across its operations. We expect the Company to benefit from the growth of its brands in growing markets as well as the addition of new markets in Ohio, Illinois, and Delaware in 2025.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 2, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Focused On Licensing Development
Xcel Brands (XELB/$3.05 | Price Target: $17.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Focused On Licensing Development
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Industry dynamics. The QVC Group recently announced that it is laying off 900 employees as part of its effort to become a live social shopping company. Notably, while we don’t anticipate QVC will stop live selling on traditional TV, the increased focus on social commerce is illustrative of changing consumer viewing habits. In our view, XCEL Brands is well positioned to benefit from shift in viewing habits toward streaming alternatives.
Valuable expertise. XCEL Brands is a veteran in the live selling space and has extensive experience working with celebrities to help bring their products to market and help them sell. In our view, the company is well positioned to provide celebrities with expertise both in traditional TV and social commerce selling, or live streaming.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 1, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Making Progress on Multiple Fronts
Cocrystal Pharma (COCP)/OUTPERFORM – FY2024 Reported With Clinical Trials On Schedule
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – FY2024 Reported As The Countdown To OLC PDUDFA Date Begins
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.24 | Price Target: $0.55)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Making Progress on Multiple Fronts
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Concession renewal in Ecuador. In March, Aurania filed the appropriate documentation for the 2025 renewal of its 42 mineral exploration concessions in southeastern Ecuador, along with a request to enter into an agreement for payment of the annual concession fees. The request was accepted, and the company is working with various governmental departments to negotiate an agreement. Aurania considers that by filing the concession renewals prior to the March 31 deadline, it maintains its property in Ecuador in good standing while a payment agreement is being finalized.
Kuri-Yawi IP geophysical survey. An induced polarization survey was completed at the Kuri-Yawi epithermal gold target in late 2024. The survey confirmed the presence of a conductive area, which could be an epithermal conduit that Aurania has been targeting. Aurania’s geologists are currently studying and comparing data compiled to date from the IP survey, an airborne magnetic survey, field work, previous drilling data, and a MobileMT survey to define the best possible drill hole locations for a future drilling program.
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Cocrystal Pharma (COCP/$1.42 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
FY2024 Reported With Clinical Trials On Schedule
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth Quarter and FY2024 Reported. Cocrystal reported a 4Q24 loss of $3.1 million or $(0.31) per share and a FY2024 loss of $17.5 million or $(1.72) per share. The company reviewed the progress it has made in 4Q24 and YTD with CC-988 for norovirus/coronavirus and with CPI-42344 for influenza. The cash balance on December 31, 2024, was $9.9 million.
Human Challenge Study Planned For CC-988 In Norovirus. Cocrystal is planning a human challenge study to test CC-988, its protease inhibitor for norovirus and coronaviruses. The new trial follows the results of the Phase 1 ascending dose studies announced in December 2024, showing safety and tolerability. Results from an additional high-dose cohort are expected in 2Q25. The Phase 2a human challenge study is expected to begin later in 2025.
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Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$0.57 | Price Target: $7)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
FY2024 Reported As The Countdown To OLC PDUDFA Date Begins
Rating: OUTPERFORM
FY2025 Made Significant Progress. Unicycive reported a 4Q loss of $21.7 million or $(0.20) per share and a loss of $37.8 million or $(0.56) per share for FY2024. Cash on December 31, 2024 was $26.1 million. The most significant development, in our opinion, is the June 28, 2025, PFUFA date by which the FDA is required to answer to the Oxylanthanum (OLC) NDA.
OLC Launch is expected in Late 2025. The PDUFA date of June 28, 2025, is the statutory date by which the FDA is required to answer the NDA application. We expect OLC to be approved, based on its clinical trial data showing equivalence to lanthanum (Fosrenol, from Shire) with easier dosing, better patient compliance, and more patients reaching the target range for phosphate levels. An estimated 70% of the renal dialysis patients do not have adequate phosphate control. We believe its lower pill burden and improved patient compliance will lead to better outcomes with fewer morbidity events, leading to a strong market share.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, March 31, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – 2025 To Headline Diversification Efforts
Snail (SNAL/$1.04 | Price Target: $4)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
2025 To Headline Diversification Efforts
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue and adj. EBITDA of $26.2 million and $1.6 million, respectively. While revenue was modestly better than our estimate of $25.0 million, adj. EBITDA was a tad softer. Notably, the variance in adj. EBITDA was driven by an increased focus on in-house development, resulting in higher R&D costs. We view the company’s efforts to diversify its revenue stream as a favorable development.
Portfolio expansion. The company has been taking steps to offer more games and products that could drive revenue diversification. Notably, the company launched ARK: Ultimate Mobile Edition in December and gained over 2 million users during the month. Additionally, the company soft launched a new mobile app, SaltyTV, which offers original short film content. Furthermore, the company acquired eleven games in 2024, with several releases expected in 2025.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, March 28, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Preparing for the Inevitable Upturn in Lithium Demand and Pricing
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – With Revenues On The Mend, Attention Turns To Debt Refinancing
GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – 4Q24 Reported With Updates On Upcoming Clinical Trials
Steelcase (SCS)/OUTPERFORM – Order Growth Remains Solid in 4Q25
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.3 | Price Target: $2.3)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Preparing for the Inevitable Upturn in Lithium Demand and Pricing
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Investor webinar. Century Lithium recently discussed the Angel Island Lithium project during an insightful investor webinar. Key highlights included: 1) Angel Island is an advanced project with one of the largest lithium deposits in the United States, 2) the project employs a proven patent-pending process for chloride leaching, along with direct lithium extraction to produce lithium carbonate, 3) Century has a secured a 1,770 acre-feet per year water rights permit, and 4) the company has demonstrated its ability to consistently produce battery grade lithium carbonate on-site at its pilot plant in Amargosa Valley, Nevada.
Updated feasibility study. Century Lithium recently completed an initial internal optimization study of the project and identified potential cost reductions of up to 25%, or $395.2 million, associated with the project’s Phase I capital expenditures totaling $1,580.7 billion. We think additional cost-reduction measures could apply to the second and third production phases of the project. Century expects to complete an updated feasibility study as early as by year-end.
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Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$1.33)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
With Revenues On The Mend, Attention Turns To Debt Refinancing
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Q4 in line with previously revised guidance. Q4 and full year 2024 revenue of $9.1 million and $62.3 million, respectively, were in line with the company’s revised guidance but were below our expectations of $14.5 million and $67.7 million, respectively. Consequently, an adj. EBITDA loss of $3.4 million was below our estimate of a loss of $2.3 million. We believe that investors will likely focus on the revenue outlook, which appears encouraging.
A sanguine revenue outlook. Management highlighted recent client “wins”, which are expected to be reflected starting in Q2. We believe that this gave management confidence to provide full year 2025 revenue guidance of $90 million to $110 million. The high margin Buy Side segment is expected to be a key area of focus to grow revenue and achieve improved cash flow.
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GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$1.27 | Price Target: $12)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
4Q24 Reported With Updates On Upcoming Clinical Trials
Rating: OUTPERFORM
4Q24 Meets Expectations As Pipeline Advances. GeoVax reported 4Q24 loss of $8.3 million or $(0.88) per share and a loss of $25.0 million or $(4.82) per share for FY2024. The company updated its three clinical programs with CM04S1, the Gedeptin Phase 2, and the MVA program, which continue to make progress as expected. On December 31, 2024, cash on hand was $5.5 million, excluding the proceeds of a $4.5 million offering completed in March 2025.
Clinical Supplies Were Made for the CM04S1 Phase 2b BARDA Trial. Geovax has manufactured clinical supplies for the Phase 2b trial, testing CM04S1 as a booster for healthy adults who have received an mRNA vaccine against COVID-19. This trial is sponsored by a BARDA grant, with estimated revenues of $25 to $45 million for the company, plus about $350 million allocated for direct clinical trial expenses. The trial is now expected to begin late in 2025 to early 2026.
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Steelcase (SCS/$11.3 | Price Target: $16)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Order Growth Remains Solid in 4Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM
4Q Results. Revenue of $788 million rose 1.7% y-o-y, exceeded our expectation of $775 million, and was at the high end of guidance. Impacted by the revenue mix, gross margin of 31.9% was below our 33.3% projection. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $40.4 million, below our $52.5 million projection. Net income, aided by $21.8 million of favorable tax items, totaled $27.6 million, or $0.23/sh. Adjusted EPS was $0.26, up from $0.23 last year.
Promising Order Growth. Organic order growth in the fourth quarter was 9%, driven by a 12% increase in Americas orders and 1% International order growth. This was the sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year order growth in the Americas, reflecting continued gains in market share, in our view. Order growth was seen across most customer segments, with especially strong growth from large corporate and government customers.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, March 27, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – A First Look At Q4 Results
Snail (SNAL/$1.62 | Price Target: $4)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
A First Look At Q4 Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue and adj. EBITDA of $26.2 million and $1.6 million, respectively. While revenue was modestly better than our estimate of $25.0 million, adj. EBITDA was a tad softer, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. Notably, the variance in adj. EBITDA was driven by an increased focus on in-house development, resulting in higher R&D costs. We view the company’s efforts to diversify its revenue stream as a favorable development.
Portfolio expansion. The company has been taking steps to offer more games and products that could drive revenue diversification. Notably, the company launched ARK: Ultimate Mobile Edition in December and gained over 2 million users during the month. Additionally, the company soft launched a new mobile app, SaltyTV, which offers original short film content. Furthermore, the company acquired eleven games in 2024, with several releases expected in 2025.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, March 25, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Expecting Revenue Growth Momentum Throughout 2025
Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP)/OUTPERFORM – FDA Sends Positive Signal For Tonmya Approval With No Advisory Committee Meeting Needed
SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.35 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Expecting Revenue Growth Momentum Throughout 2025
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Favorable revenue growth. The company reported 7% year-over-year revenue growth to $23.7 million, largely in line with our estimate of $24.0 million. The adj. EBITDA loss of $3.8 million was greater than our estimated loss of $2.1 million, due to gross margin compression resulting from a shift in product mix on the company’s lighting website.
Mandatory standardization application. Management noted that the company’s team responsible for applying the mandatory standardization to the National Electrical Code believes it will receive assistance from certain key organizations during its application process. This is due to the significant safety advantages of the company’s technology. We view this development favorably, as the prospect of mandatory standardization represents a potentially transformative revenue opportunity for the company.
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Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP/$30.51 | Price Target: $70)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
FDA Sends Positive Signal For Tonmya Approval With No Advisory Committee Meeting Needed
Rating: OUTPERFORM
No Advisory Panel Required. Tonix has been informed that the FDA will not require an Advisory Committee Meeting to determine approvability of the NDA for Tonmya (TNX-102 SL). We see this as a sign that the NDA review has not raised questions about the clinical trial data, potential patient use, or other factors that would be answered by an Advisory Committee. Since the trial met its primary endpoint and all six secondary endpoints with high statistical significance, we interpret this to be a positive sign.
FDA Advisory Panel Hearings Evaluate and Provide Insight To Trial Data. As part of its NDA review process, the FDA may schedule an Advisory Committee hearing. The committee members each bring expertise in aspects of clinical practice, research, or statistical analysis. At a hearing, the company presents its analysis of the trial and the data, followed by the FDA’s analysis. The Committee members then ask questions to make recommendations for or against NDA approval and/or product labeling. We see the review without an Advisory Committee as a sign that the FDA does not need additional information on efficacy or safety.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, March 24, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – All’s Well That Continues Well For Tegoprubart
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – An Investor Day Full of Opportunity; Raising PT to $35
Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Reverse Split Addresses NASDAQ Listing Requirement
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$3.51 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
All’s Well That Continues Well For Tegoprubart
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Eledon Reported 4Q24 Results and Reviewed Progress During The Quarter. Eledon reported a loss for 4Q24 of $44.6 million or $(0.64) per share and $36.2 million or $(0.75) per share for FY2024. Cash and equivalents on December 31, 2024 was $140.2 million, which is expected to fund operations through YE2026. Based on our estimated loss for 1Q25, we project the cash balance on March 31, 2025 to be about $115 million to $120 million.
Tegoprubart Has Clinical Trial Milestones Ahead. Enrollment in the Phase 2 BESTOW trial for prevention of kidney transplant rejection was completed ahead of schedule in August 2024 due to higher than anticipated interest from transplant surgeons. We anticipate top-line results in 4Q25. The Phase 1b open-label trial continues to evaluate patients and is expected to provide an interim data update in mid-year 2025.
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The GEO Group (GEO/$28.23 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
An Investor Day Full of Opportunity; Raising PT to $35
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Investor Day. The GEO Group hosted an investor day at the end of last week, during which the Company outlined the substantial growth opportunities available under the new programs to manage undocumented migrants, as well as its goal to both significantly reduce debt and return capital to shareholders.
Secure Facilities. There is an immediate need from ICE for additional detention capacity. This is illustrated by the new contract for GEO’s 1,800 bed North Lake Facility announced last Thursday. This new contract will add $70 million of annualized revenue. Management estimates currently unused bed capacity (including the three facilities recently contracted by ICE) could add $575-$625 million to revenue.
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Xcel Brands (XELB/$0.32 | Price Target: $17.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Reverse Split Addresses NASDAQ Listing Requirement.
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Reverse split. On March 21, 2025, the company announced a one-for-ten reverse stock split that will take effect at market open on March 25, 2025. Notably, we view the reverse split as a favorable development in the company’s efforts to satisfy NASDAQ’s minimum share price listing requirement of $1. In order to meet NASDAQ’s listing requirement, the XELB shares will need to close above $1 for ten consecutive trading days. Given the current share price of $0.32, we believe the company will likely regain NASDAQ compliance following the reverse split.
Reverse split details. In connection with the reverse split, the company will pay out cash considerations in lieu of issuing fractional shares, and proportionately adjust the underlying common stock and exercise prices of outstanding stock options and warrants. Additionally, the company will continue to trade under the XELB ticker, but will use a new CUSIP number of 98400M200.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, March 21, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – EuroHoldings Spin-Off and a New Time Charter Contract
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Attractive Risk/Reward
Euroseas (ESEA/$31.22 | Price Target: $51)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
EuroHoldings Spin-Off and a New Time Charter Contract
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New time charter contract. Euroseas executed a new time charter contract for the M/V Rena P, a 4,250 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) intermediate containership. The charter contract is at a gross daily rate of $35,500 for a minimum period of 35 months and a maximum period of 37 months at the charterer’s option. The contract is expected to take effect on August 21, 2025, in continuation of its present charter. The contract is anticipated to contribute roughly $29.0 million in EBITDA during the minimum contract period. The new contract strengthens the company’s charter coverage to 88% in 2025 and 54% in 2026.
Updating estimates. The new charter contract for $35,500 represents a significant improvement compared to the previous rate of $21,000. Consequently, we have increased our 2025 adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $145.1 million and $14.20, respectively, from $139.1 million and $13.35. In addition to the M/V Rena P, our estimates reflect updated time charter contract information for the M/V Marcos, M/V Synergy Antwerp, M/V Synergy Keelung, and M/V EM Hydra.
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Resources Connection (RGP/$6.85 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Attractive Risk/Reward
Rating: OUTPERFORM
3Q25. With earnings expected on April 2nd, we continue to favor RGP shares. We expect 3Q25 results to remain muted, given the ongoing economic uncertainty and elongated decision times. Nonetheless, we believe RGP’s rich portfolio of diversified offerings encompassing professional staffing support, consulting, and outsourced services creates a strategic powerhouse that we believe will drive value for investors over the long term.
Increased Efficiency in a Growing Market. The global professional services industry is projected to increase by a 6% CAGR over the next five years, growing to $95 billion, according to research published by Statista. With RGP implementing a new technology platform, which will enable increased use of artificial intelligence and automation in the delivery of services as well as back-office operations, we expect the combination of greater revenue and increased efficiency to drive significant results once the economy improves.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, March 20, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Cash Flow Supported 2024 Growth and Return of Capital
Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP)/OUTPERFORM – Fourth Quarter Reported As Tonmya PDUFA Approaches
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.29 | Price Target: $2.35)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Strong Cash Flow Supported 2024 Growth and Return of Capital
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Reserve report. Hemisphere released results from its independent reserve evaluation as of December 31, 2024. Compared to the year-end 2023 reserve report, proved developed producing (PDP) reserves increased 13.1% to 9,302.2 thousand barrels of oil equivalents. The growth in PDP reserves replaced 186% of 2024 production. Hemisphere’s estimated 2024 capital expenditures of ~C$22 million funded PDP reserve growth, annual production growth of ~10%, additional infrastructure, and the testing of a new resource play in Saskatchewan with an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) polymer pilot project.
Outlook for 2025. Hemisphere expects 2025 capital expenditures of ~C$17 million which are expected to support ~15% growth in annual average production to 3,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) compared to 2024. Most of the capital will be allocated to drilling, optimization, and facility work, with ~10% allotted to exploration and land acquisition. The majority of the planned expenditures are scheduled for the third quarter of 2025, providing the company with the flexibility to adjust plans based on changes in commodity prices.
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Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP/$16.47 | Price Target: $70)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Fourth Quarter Reported As Tonmya PDUFA Approaches
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth Quarter Reported With Product Development Updates. Tonix reported 4Q Net Loss to Common Shareholders of $22.1 million or $(9.77) per share and $130.0 million or $(176.60) per share for FY2024. Total Product sales were $10.1 million with Gross Margin averaging 23% for the full year. The company ended FY2024 with $98.8 million in cash then raised $46.3 million in 1Q25. Including our expected loss for 1Q25, we estimate cash on March 31 to be around $125 million and believe the company has sufficient operating funds into FY2026.
Preparations For Tonmya Are In Progress. Tonix has been assigned a PDUFA date of August 15, 2025, the statutory date for the FDA to answer its NDA for Tonmya (TNX-102 SL). We believe the Phase 3 trials justify approval for fibromyalgia and anticipate broad use for relief of its multiple symptoms. Based on its patient population of over 10 million patients, we believe Tonmya could be a significant revenue generator for Tonix.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, March 19, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Poised for a Return Toward Revenue Growth
Conduent (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – Building Operational Momentum for a Strong 2026
Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE)/OUTPERFORM – 4Q24 Reported With Hydronidone (F351) Data Coming In 2Q25
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Some More Business Wins
SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Pre-Releases Solid Q4 Revenue
Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$1.41 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Poised for a Return Toward Revenue Growth
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q4 results. The company reported sequential revenue growth in Q4 with revenue of $136.8 million (up from $135.3 million in Q3), better than our estimate of $125.1 million. Adj. EBITDA was $12.0 million, better than our estimate of $6.4 million.
Margin improvement. The strong adj. EBITDA margins of 8.8% in Q4 were the highest of any quarter in 2024. The impressive margins were driven by better transaction spreads at the company’s kiosks, armored transport cost reductions, and lower rents in some kiosk locations. Moreover, the company benefitted from a falloff of initial public company costs (in comparison to the prior year period).
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Conduent (CNDT/$2.99 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Building Operational Momentum for a Strong 2026
Rating: OUTPERFORM
2025 preview. We anticipate that the company’s revenue momentum will build throughout the year as new business signings take effect. Moreover, with the prospect of additional efficiencies from initiatives such as corporate-level cost reductions, and a reduction in real estate footprint, we expect adj. EBITDA margins to expand as the year progresses.
Quarterly outlook. In Q1, we expect $767 million in revenue and $14 million in adj. EBITDA, a modest 1.8% margin. However, based on growing revenue and increasing efficiency, we expect adj. EBITDA margins to improve in each subsequent quarter, culminating in margins of nearly 8% in Q4. Given our Q4 revenue estimate of $830 million, we believe the company will exit 2025 with revenue and adj. EBITDA run rates in line with its stated target ($3.2B-$3.3B in annual revenue and 8% adj. EBITDA margins).
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Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE/$8.57 | Price Target: $20)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
4Q24 Reported With Hydronidone (F351) Data Coming In 2Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Net Income Was Within Expectations. Gyre Therapeutics reported 4Q24 Net Income Attributable to Common Shareholders of $(0.1) million or $(0.00) per share and FY2024 Net Income of $12.1 million, or $0.14 per basic share and $0.05 per fully diluted share. Revenues were $105.8 million in FY2024 with gross margins of 96.3%, consistent with our revenue estimates of $101.4 million and 96.2% gross margins. As of December 31, 2024, cash on hand was $51.2 million. Separately, results of the Phase 3 clinical trial for Hydronidone will be announced in 2Q25.
Hydronidone Data Announcement Pushed To 2Q25. In its quarterly press release, the company stated that data from the Phase 3 clinical trial for Hydronidone will be announced in 2Q25, although we had expected the data in 1Q25. We do not see this as a significant delay, as it extends the timeframe by 2 to 14 weeks. We believe this can still allow for regulatory filing in China during FY2025.
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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$31.25 | Price Target: $38)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Joshua Zoepfel jzoepfel@noblefcm.com |
Some More Business Wins
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Business Wins. Kratos has been awarded a number of new and additions to existing contracts in March. We view these developments positively, although we remain watchful as to the impact of the ongoing continuing resolution for the Federal budget and its implications on new awards in 2025.
BQM-177A Awards. Kratos was awarded $3.4 million from the U.S. Navy for the base year of its next Contractor Logistics Support and Engineering Services contract, supporting BQM-177A aerial target system operations. If all four option years awarded under this contract are exercised, this contract has a potential value of $19.1 million. The Company also received $59.3 million for an additional 70 BQM-177A Subsonic Aerial Target aircraft through the exercise of the contract option for Full Rate Production (FRP) Lot 6.
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SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.17 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Pre-Releases Solid Q4 Revenue
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q4 pre-release. On Monday, SKYX pre-released its Q4 revenue results, reporting revenue of $23.7 million (largely aligning with our estimate of $24.0 million). Notably, the company’s revenue grew throughout 2024, from $19.0 million in Q1 to $21.4 million, $22.2 million, and $23.7 million, in the subsequent quarters.
Key leadership additions. The company recently announced the additions of Huey Long as Head of E-commerce and Greg St. John as President of Lighting, Fans and Smart Home Products. Mr. Long previously served as director of e-commerce for Amazon and as an executive at both Ashley Furniture and Walmart. Mr. St. John previously served as head of lighting at Home Depot as well as CEO of EGLO.
