Author: cpatches

Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, August 14, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Revised Forecasts Reflect Phased Rollout, Long-Term Outlook Intact
The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI)/OUTPERFORM – Patient Additions And Pharmacy Division Drive 2Q25 Revenues Above Expectations

SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.28 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Revised Forecasts Reflect Phased Rollout, Long-Term Outlook Intact
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Q2 results. SKYX reported Q2 revenue of $23.1 million, up 7.5% year over year and 14.7% sequentially. Gross margin expanded 190bps to 30.3%, supported by a favorable mix shift toward proprietary tech-embedded products. The adj. EBITDA loss of $2.6 million was slightly wider than our forecast of a $2.3 million loss but reflects underlying operating leverage as revenue scales.

Smart City partnership reinforces revenue growth trajectory. The company’s partnership with the $3 billion Smart City development in Miami’s Little River District positions it for sustained long-term growth. We expect the rollout to drive meaningful topline and branding impact over time, with strategic visibility among large-scale developers likely to reinforce future adoption of SKYX’s technology in both residential and commercial verticals.

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The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI/$4.1 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Patient Additions And Pharmacy Division Drive 2Q25 Revenues Above Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Revenues Were Driven By New Patients Under Contract. The Oncology Institute reported a loss for 2Q25 of $17.0 million or $(0.15) per share. Revenues of $119.8 million exceeded our estimate of $110.4 million. The company discussed newly active or pending contracts that will add covered lives during 2H25. It reiterated its guidance for Revenues, Gross Profit, Adjusted EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow. Cash on June 30, 2025 was $30.3 million.

Patient Services Were Close To Our Expectations. The Patient Services division reached $55.9 million. New payor contracts added patients during 1H25 that began generating revenues, although they have a period of higher cost during the transition to TOI management. We expect the patient mix to include more continuing patients during 2H25, improving margins while new contracts continue to drive growth.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 13, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – WhiteFiber IPO
Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Q2 Upside Drives Full-Year Upward Revisions
EuroDry (EDRY)/MARKET PERFORM – Weak Second Quarter, Better Results Expected Ahead
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – Pre-Leasing Momentum Reinforces Competitive Moat
Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q25 Reported As We Await The TNX-102 SL PDUFA Date Of August 15

Bit Digital (BTBT/$3.03 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
WhiteFiber IPO
Rating: OUTPERFORM

IPO. WhiteFiber has been brought public through the sale of 9.375 million shares at $17/sh. Upon completion of the offering, Bit Digital retained ownership of 74.3% of the 36.4 million outstanding shares (71.5% if the underwriters exercised the full option). WhiteFiber shares are trading on the NASDAQ under the symbol WYFI.

Funding. Net proceeds from the IPO were expected to be approximately $145.1 million, or approximately $167.4 million if the underwriters exercised their option in full. Management anticipates using the funds for the build out and expansion of the business.

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Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$4.22 | Price Target: $9)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Q2 Upside Drives Full-Year Upward Revisions
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Strong Q2 results. Bitcoin Depot reported Q2 revenue of $172.1 million (5.5% growth YoY), better than our estimate of $167.5 million. Adj. EBITDA of $18.5 million (46.2% growth YoY) beat our estimate of $15.5 million. The impressive results were driven by stronger revenue per kiosk, particularly among mature locations.

Kiosk expansion. The company added roughly 600 kiosks during Q2, ending with 9,000 units in operation. About 3,300 kiosks are still in early ramp, suggesting room for productivity gains. Bitcoin Depot also holds 1,700 units in inventory, enabling growth without near-term capex. In Australia, 200 kiosks have been deployed, and management is evaluating two more international markets.

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EuroDry (EDRY/$10.67)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Weak Second Quarter, Better Results Expected Ahead
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

Second quarter financial results. EuroDry generated Q2 net revenues of $11.3 million, in line with our $11.4 million estimate but down about $6 million year-over-year due to a decline in average time charter equivalent (TCE) rates. Adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 million and a loss per share of $1.10 per share were better than our forecasts of $1.6 million and a loss of $1.23 per share, aided by lower voyage expenses, but trailed last year’s $5.0 million and $0.17 loss.

Market Outlook. The dry-bulk market saw a brief improvement in the second quarter as rates recovered from early-year lows, though momentum slowed later in the period amid trade policy developments and softer Chinese import activity. However, since the start of the third quarter, rates have improved, and the IMF slightly raised its 2025 global GDP guidance. Red Sea disruptions have continued to extend voyage distances, and demand has picked up slightly based on improved sentiment toward growth in China. The orderbook remains near historical lows, so while rates hover below 2024 levels, we expect the recent improvement to hold for the remainder of the year.

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Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$10.95 | Price Target: $23)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Pre-Leasing Momentum Reinforces Competitive Moat
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Q2 slightly below forecast. Sky Harbour reported Q2 revenue of $6.6 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $3.0 million, both below expectations. Despite the shortfall, development milestones were notable with new long-term ground leases signed at Hillsboro (HIO) and Stewart (SWF), reinforcing execution on its expansion strategy.

Expansion on track. The company began pre-leasing at IAD and BDL (both pre-construction) at strong average rates of $47.06 per square foot, underscoring brand strength and tenant confidence. With DVT and ADS operational and leasing underway, management reiterated its goal of securing five additional long-term leases by year-end, which would bring the total to 23.

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Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP/$59.76 | Price Target: $70)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
2Q25 Reported As We Await The TNX-102 SL PDUFA Date Of August 15
Rating: OUTPERFORM

We Are On The Edge Of Our Seats Waiting For TNX-102 SL. Tonix reported a 2Q25 loss of $28.3 million or $(3.86) per share. Importantly, the PDUFA date for TNX-102 SL is August 15. This is the date when the FDA is required to answer the application for approval. We continue to expect TNX-102 SL to be approved this week. Cash on hand at the end of the quarter was $125.3 million.

TNX-102 SL Launch Is Planned For 4Q25. The company expects to have TNX-102 SL available during 4Q25, as we expected. It will be the first drug developed and approved for fibromyalgia, compared with the current therapies that were approved for other conditions then expanded into fibromyalgia. Importantly, TNX-102 SL met its primary endpoint of pain relief and all six secondary endpoints for relief of symptoms.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q25 Included Clinical Strategy Change and Manufacturing Progress
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – A Significant, Positive Development
MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – Expand the Brand
Nutriband (NTRB)/OUTPERFORM – CEO Gareth Sheridan To Run For President Of Ireland
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Expanding Capabilities

Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$10.94 | Price Target: $45)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
2Q25 Included Clinical Strategy Change and Manufacturing Progress
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Cadrenal Reports 2Q With Product News. Cadrenal reported a 2Q25 loss of $3.7 million or $(1.87) per share. During the quarter, the company announced a design modification for the upcoming tecarfarin clinical trial. The company also transferred its manufacturing technology to a CDMO and completed production scale-up in preparation for clinical trials. Cash on June 30, 2025 was $5.6 million.

New Trial Focuses On First Months Of Dialysis. As described in our Research Note on August 7 , the new trial design reflects recent research showing the first four to six months after the start of renal dialysis are an ultra-high-risk period for cardiac events including myocardial infarction, stroke, embolism, and death. The design change will be testing tecarfarin as an anticoagulant to reduce these events. The clinical site activation and trial enrollment are expected to begin around year-end.

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Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.42)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
A Significant, Positive Development
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

Converts the majority of its debt. The company announced that it has converted $25.0 million of its roughly $34.4 million in debt into a perpetual Series A Preferred Convertible Stock. The Preferred Stock will carry a cumulative annual 10% dividend, based on board of approval, and will be convertible at $2.50 per Class A common share. Following the transaction, the company will have roughly $9.4 million debt remaining under its Term Loan Facility. The move is viewed favorably. 

Significant, but manageable restrictions. The company will be required to maintain total leverage below 3.5 to1 declining to 3.25 to 1. In addition, the company will need to maintain a fixed charge coverage of 1.25 to 1 rising to 1.5 to 1. In addition, the company must maintain $1.5 million in unrestricted cash. Finally, the company must maintain a minimum of consolidated EBITDA of $1.0 million for fiscal quarters end Sept. 2025 and then $500,000 thereafter. 

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MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.13 | Price Target: $0.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Expand the Brand
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Expand the Brand. With the recent Pennsylvania and Maine announcements, MariMed continues to implement its Expand the Brand strategy, which is focused on making the Company’s products accessible to as many consumers as possible. We expect the Company to look at additional new markets, such as New York and New Jersey, for additional expansion.

Market Remains Mixed. There remains a lot of near-term uncertainty in the cannabis industry. Pricing pressures, market saturation, and the lack of federal reform still pose a challenge that MariMed will need to navigate. Entering into established cannabis markets that are expanding into the adult recreational use market enables the Company to quickly capture share in proven markets.

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Nutriband (NTRB/$6.85 | Price Target: $15)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
CEO Gareth Sheridan To Run For President Of Ireland
Rating: OUTPERFORM

CFO Will Transition To CEO. Nutriband CEO and Co-Founder Gareth Sheridan has announced plans to take a three-month leave from the company to run for President of the Republic of Ireland. The current CFO and Co-Founder, Serguei Melnik, will become Acting CEO as Mr. Sheridan campaigns. The election is expected to be held in late September or early October. If elected, Sergeui will become CEO. If Mr. Sheridan is not elected, he may return to the company.

We Wish Gareth Sheridan Well In The Election. As a Co-founder and CEO of the company, Gareth Sheridan has guided the company from an idea to becoming a NASDAQ-listed company with three divisions. Nutriband’s financial planning has allowed  it to develop the AVERSA technology with low operating losses, keeping the share base low.

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V2X (VVX/$52.93 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Expanding Capabilities
Rating: OUTPERFORM

A Tuck-in. Last night, after the market closed, V2X announced it had entered into an agreement to acquire a specialized data engineering, intel mission support, and cyber solutions business serving the Intelligence Community (IC). The transaction is valued at approximately $24 million, net of estimated tax benefits. We expect additional details to follow.

IC Expansion. The acquisition advances V2X’s strategic growth objectives and further extends its reach beyond traditional defense markets, enabling the Company to pursue a greater share of the National Intelligence Program budget and related opportunities. The acquisition adds some 70 people to V2X.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, August 11, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Post call Commentary
DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary
E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Fed Rate Action Could Ignite Auto Advertising
Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – Post 2Q25 Call Commentary
Kelly Services (KELYA)/OUTPERFORM – New CEO; Reports 2Q25 Results
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Strong 2Q25, Raises Guidance, Increasing PT
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Update
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – AIP Sells Some More

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$20.5 | Price Target: $28)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Post call Commentary
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Availability. Increased use of CoreCivic’s remaining beds will help drive operating results going forward. If all of the idle 13,419 beds were activated, this would imply around $500 million in annual revenue, and around $200 million to $225 million in incremental EBITDA.

Activations. During the quarter, CoreCivic made substantial progress in reactivating three previously idled facilities, and the Company’s activation teams are preparing for additional contracting activity. Management noted that CoreCivic is in advanced negotiations to activate a fourth idle facility and has just begun negotiations for a fifth facility.

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DLH Holdings (DLHC/$5.5 | Price Target: $10)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Post Call Commentary
Rating: OUTPERFORM

When, Not If. We continue to believe it is a matter of when, not if, DLH begins to capitalize on the large opportunity set for its mission critical skill set. Current disruptions in Federal government contracting will pass, and DLH’s capabilities, in areas such as digital transformation, cybersecurity, and addressing critical public health issues, align well with the government’s goals.

Still Accumulating. Mink Brook Asset Management continues to accumulate DLHC shares, including 5,900 shares at the end of last week. Mink Brook now owns 2,389,350 DLHC shares, representing 16.6% of the outstanding common, up from 2,164,058 shares at the end of May.

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E.W. Scripps (SSP/$2.52 | Price Target: $10)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Fed Rate Action Could Ignite Auto Advertising
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Q2 results largely in line. Total company revenue of $540.0 million was a tad shy of our $546.6 million estimate, but was close enough. The biggest downside variance was Political, which is very unpredictable especially in an off election year. Importantly, the company overachieved our adj. EBITDA estimate, $88.8 million versus $84.8 million. 

Tweaking estimates. Management indicated that Q3 Core advertising was pacing flat in Q3, a sequential improvement from down 1.9% in q2, but a little lighter than we had hoped given the year earlier Political displacement. We tweaked our Q3 revenue estimate down 2.1% to $528.5 million and adj. EBITDA estimate down 2.8% to $71.5 million. 

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Information Services Group (III/$4.44 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Post 2Q25 Call Commentary
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Riding the Waves. ISG is riding two key waves, one is AI adoption, with clients investing aggressively in modernizing their technology operations and infrastructure to support it. The other is cost optimization, as one of the means of funding the AI adoption is through optimization of cloud, infrastructure, and software costs.

AI & Recurring Revenue. AI-related revenue was 2.5x higher than it was a year ago. And in both the second quarter and first half, nearly 20% of total revenue was AI related. Recurring revenues in the second quarter reached $28 million, up 7% sequentially and represented 45% of overall revenue.

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Kelly Services (KELYA/$14.15 | Price Target: $27)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
New CEO; Reports 2Q25 Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM

New CEO. Chris Layden has been selected to serve as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective September 2, 2025, replacing the retiring Peter Quigley. Having spent nearly two decades at Manpower Group and as COO of Prolink, Mr. Layden has extensive experience leading organizations through transformations to advance go-to-market initiatives and accelerate profitable growth.

2Q25 Results. Kelly reported revenue of $1.1 billion, up 4.2% y-o-y but down 3.3% on an organic basis. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $37.0 million was down 8.7% versus the prior year, with adjusted EBITDA margin down 40 bp to 3.4%. EPS was $0.52 compared to EPS of $0.12 in the second quarter of 2024. On an adjusted basis, EPS was $0.54 in 2Q25 compared to $0.71/sh in 2Q24. We had forecast $1.17 billion of revenue, $42.5 million adjusted EBITDA, EPS of $0.73, and adjusted EPS of $0.71.

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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$63.88 | Price Target: $75)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Strong 2Q25, Raises Guidance, Increasing PT
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Opportunity Knocks! Virtually every Kratos business unit is forecasting significant future organic growth, including the hypersonic system franchise, small jet engines for drones, missiles, and loitering munitions, the Israeli based microwave electronics business, and the military grade hardware business supporting missile, radar, hypersonic, counter UAS and strategic weapon systems.

2Q25 Results. Kratos reported revenue of $351.5 million, reflecting 17.1% y-o-y growth and 15.2% organic growth. We had projected revenue of $308 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $28.3 million versus $29.9 million a year ago and our $27.5 million estimate. Adjusted net income was $17.1 million, or $0.11/sh, versus $20.8 million, or $0.14/sh, last year and our $18.8 million, or $0.12/sh, estimate.

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NN (NNBR/$2.12 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Post Call Update
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Second Quarter Developments. NN leveraged the soft market environment to upsize its business development activities and investments. The soft top-line centers around certain automotive customers, which NN was able to partially offset through the contribution of new business launches and precious metals pass-through pricing.

Changing for the Better. Management continues to work on its transformation plan to position the Company for significant upside when end markets improve. For example, YTD, the 18.2% adjusted gross margin is an expansion of 190 basis points over the past two years and well on the way to the 20% gm goal. 

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V2X (VVX/$50.78 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
AIP Sells Some More
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Another Sale. AIP, through its Vertex Aerospace Holdco LLC sub, is selling another 2 million shares of VVX stock through an offering that is expected to close on August 11th. This will be the fourth such sale as the private equity firm continues to lighten its V2X holdings.

V2X to Buy. Subject to the closing of the offering, V2X has agreed to purchase 200,000 shares of V2X’s common stock that are subject to the offering at a price per share of common stock equal to the price to be paid to Vertex Aerospace by the underwriter. V2X intends to fund the repurchase of its common stock with cash on hand. This will cost approximately $10 million.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 8, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Cumulus Media (CMLS)/MARKET PERFORM – Can It Pull A Rabbit Out Of The Hat?
GoHealth (GOCO)/OUTPERFORM – Forecast Trimmed, Flexibility Restored
Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – Outlook Offers Glimmer Of Revenue Improvement

Cumulus Media (CMLS/$0.17)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Can It Pull A Rabbit Out Of The Hat?
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

Exceeds Q2 expectations. Q2 revenue of $186.0 million was a tad better than our $183.9 million estimate, with the largest upside variance being Digital revenue and a little lift from Political advertising. Its Digital Marketing Services business was up an impressive 38% in revenue. Adj. EBITDA exceeded expectations at $22.4 million versus our $15.6 million estimate.

Ad trends still negative. Core spot advertising appears to be moderating and its Digital Marketing Services business appears to be a bright spot, pacing up 35% in Q3. Total company revenue is pacing down low double digits in Q3, however, worse than expected. Network advertising continues to be the culprit given the challenged macro economic environment and the company’s decision to decrease content/inventory.

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GoHealth (GOCO/$5.73 | Price Target: $20)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Forecast Trimmed, Flexibility Restored
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Hits headwinds in Q2. GoHealth reported Q2 revenue of $94.0 million, below our $110.0 million forecast, as Medicare Advantage softness and CMS policy shifts weighed on volumes. Revenue declined 11% year-over-year. Despite the top-line miss, adj. EBITDA loss of $11.3 million beat our expected loss of $13.2 million, reflecting ongoing cost discipline and benefits from automation initiatives underway in agent workflows.

Recapitalization improves liquidity, alleviates covenant concerns. The company secured $80 million in new term loans and amended its credit agreement to eliminate principal payments through 2026. Liquidity covenants were reduced to a single minimum cash test. While the 4.77 million Class A shares issued represent roughly 20% dilution, we believe the transaction aligns lender and shareholder incentives and resolves the going concern issue.

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Saga Communications (SGA/$12.75 | Price Target: $18)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Outlook Offers Glimmer Of Revenue Improvement
Rating: OUTPERFORM

An in line quarter. Even though the second quarter results were lackluster, total company revenues were down 5% from the comparable year earlier quarter, it was refreshing to have a company report an in line quarter. Total company Q2 revenues were $23.4 million, roughly in line with our $24.1 million estimate. Adj. EBITDA of $3.5 million was in line with our $3.5 million estimate. 

Digital revenue gains traction. While Digital revenue grew a respectable 5.8% in the latest quarter, it faced difficult year earlier comparisons from a non recurring business (up 30.3% in the prior year quarter). Notably, management indicated that Digital revenue is pacing up 30% to 40% in Q3. 

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, August 7, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – Tecarfarin Clinical Trial To Begin With Modified Design
Conduent (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – Improved Margins and Steady Execution
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – First Look – 2Q25; Increased Guidance
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – A More Muted Near Term Revenue Recovery Expected
DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – First Look – 3Q25 Results
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – Phase 1b Data Continues To Show Improved Outcomes
Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – First Look – 2Q25 Results and an Acquisition
MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – First Look 2Q25 Results
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – First Look – 2Q25
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – Some Good, Some Challenges; Reports 2Q25 Results
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter Rebound, Raising Estimates
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Reports Second Quarter Results
The ODP Corporation (ODP)/OUTPERFORM – Making Progress in the Second Quarter
Townsquare Media (TSQ)/OUTPERFORM – Delivers On Expectations

Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$10.95 | Price Target: $45)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Tecarfarin Clinical Trial To Begin With Modified Design
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Cadrenal Announces New Trial Design. Cadrenal announced that it plans to begin a trial testing tecarfarin in patients who are starting renal dialysis, both with and without atrial fibrillation (ESKD-Afib). This design reflects recent studies showing that the first several months after starting dialysis are an ultra-high risk period for mortality and cardiac events. The trial will test tecarfarin efficacy in reducing these events and could begin in late 2025 to early 2026.

Modified Study Design Focuses On Highest Risk Period. The initiation of renal dialysis impacts several important cardiovascular and renal functions. New studies show that the first six months after starting dialysis have a 20-fold increase in cardiovascular events and mortality. This has not previously been recognized due to pathologies of the underlying conditions that lead to CKD and dialysis. 

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Conduent (CNDT/$2.45 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Improved Margins and Steady Execution
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Solid Q2 results. Conduent reported second-quarter revenue of $754 million, in line with our estimate. Adj. EBITDA of $37 million exceeded our $33 million forecast. Importantly, all three business segments posted sequential growth in new business annual contract value, signaling building commercial momentum and suggesting that execution is improving across the platform.

Portfolio rationalization in the works. The company collected the remaining $50 million from its Curbside Management divestiture, completing phase one of its portfolio rationalization strategy. Management indicated additional transactions are in progress, aimed at boosting profitability. We believe updates are likely by year-end, as the team continues to reshape the business with a focus on higher-margin opportunities.

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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$19.6 | Price Target: $28)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
First Look – 2Q25; Increased Guidance
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Increasing Demand. Increasing demand for the solutions provided, particularly from ICE, contributed to a strong second quarter, as nationwide detention populations under ICE custody reached an all-time high. ICE revenue rose 17.2% y-o-y, but we also note revenue from state partners increased 5.2% y-o-y and U.S. Marshals revenue increased 2.7% y-o-y.

2Q25 Results. Revenue was $538.2 million in 2Q25, up from $490.1 million last year. We were at $500.6 million. Safety and Community average occupancy increased to 76.8% from 74.3%, even with an overhang from the recently activated California City facility. Adjusted EBITDA was $103.3 million, up 23.2% y-o-y. NFFO per share was $0.59, up 40.5%. CoreCivic reported adjusted EPS of $0.36, up 80%.

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Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.48)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
A More Muted Near Term Revenue Recovery Expected
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

Mixed Q2 results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $10.1 million, below our forecast of $12.5 million, driven by continued underperformance in the Sell-side business, which generated $2.5 million vs. our forecast of $4.5 million. Despite the shortfall, adj. EBITDA loss of $1.5 million was better than expected, aided by cost reductions and lower headcount from increased automation.

Implications for second half performance. The Q2 revenue miss was largely attributable to slower-than-expected progress with the company’s “direct connections” initiative, in which its SSP integrates directly with DSPs to bypass intermediaries. While the strategy remains a critical long-term growth lever, the implementation delays have weighed on near-term Sell-side revenue performance, as well as the outlook for the second half 2025.

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DLH Holdings (DLHC/$5.56 | Price Target: $10)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
First Look – 3Q25 Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Making Progress. In the third quarter, DLH effectively navigated changes in the competitive landscape and transition in the industry overall, preserving margin delivery and strong operating cash flow. Headwinds such as the transition of CMOP locations, unbundling of DOD contracts, and scope reductions as a result of government efficiency efforts all impacted the quarter.

3Q25 Results. Revenue was $83.3 million, compared to $100.7 million in the year ago quarter. We had forecasted $83 million. DLH reported adjusted EBITDA of $8.1 million, down from $10 million in 3Q24 and our $8.5 million estimate. Net income was $0.3 million, or $0.02/sh, versus $1.1 million, or $0.08/sh last year. We had projected $0.35 million, or $0.02/sh.

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Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$3.44 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Phase 1b Data Continues To Show Improved Outcomes
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Phase 1b Kidney Transplant Data Presented. Eledon presented data from its Phase 1b trial using tegoprubart as part of an immunosuppressive regimen at The World Transplant Congress. The data from the first 32 patients at two dosage cohorts continues to show meaningful improvement over the standard of care. We believe this supports our expectations for strong data for the Phase 2 BESTOW trial in November.

Study Design. The presentation included data from 32 patients receiving kidney transplants followed by an immunosuppressive regimen tegoprubart instead of tacrolimus, the standard of care. The primary endpoints are safety and pharmacokinetics. Secondary endpoints include patient survival, graft survival, biopsy proven acute rejection, with kidney function measured by eGFR and iBOX score.

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Information Services Group (III/$4.23 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
First Look – 2Q25 Results and an Acquisition
Rating: OUTPERFORM

2Q25 Results. Revenue of $61.6 million was up 7% versus last year, excluding results for the divested automation unit. On the same basis, revenues were $39.5 million in the Americas, up 16% versus the prior year, revenues in Europe were $16.6 million, down 7%, and Asia Pacific revenues were $5.4 million, down 1%. Adjusted EBITDA of $8.3 million rose 17% y-o-y. ISG reported adjusted net income of $4.1 million, or $0.08/sh, compared with adjusted net income of $3.8 million, or $0.08/sh last year. We were at $60 million, $7.25 million, and $0.07/sh, respectively.

An Acquisition. ISG has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Martino & Partners, a highly respected strategic advisory firm serving public and private sector clients in Italy. The transaction is expected to close in early September. The acquisition is expected to expand ISG’s client base, geographic footprint, and capabilities in Italy, including AI, in a market with emerging growth potential.

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MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.11 | Price Target: $0.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
First Look 2Q25 Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Overview. MariMed delivered sequential growth in both wholesale and retail revenues for the second quarter, a substantial increase in adjusted EBITDA, and was cash flow positive, reflecting strong execution in Massachusetts, full-quarter contributions from Delaware, and a solid retail strategy.

2Q25 Results. Total revenue was $39.6 million, down modestly from $40.4 million in the year ago period and our $40.5 million estimate. Wholesale sales rose to $17.1 million from $15.9 million, while retail sales declined to $22.4 million from $23.6 million. The Company reported adjusted EBITDA of $4.9 million versus $4.4 million and adjusted net income of $0.4 million versus an adjusted net loss of $0.2 million last year.

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NN (NNBR/$2.14 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
First Look – 2Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Overview. NN delivered a solid quarter for gross margins, operating income, adjusted operating income, and adjusted EBITDA. The soft top-line centered around certain automotive customers, which is being partially offset through the contribution of new business launches and precious metals pass-through pricing.

2Q25. On a reported basis, Net sales were $107.9  million, a decrease of 12.3% compared to the second quarter of 2024. We were at $109 million. On an adjusted basis, net sales were off 2.4%. Adjusted income from operations for 2Q25 was $4.9  million compared to adjusted income from operations of $2.1  million for the same period in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was  $13.2 million, or 12.2% of sales, compared to $13.4  million, or 10.9% of sales, for the same period in 2024.

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ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$2.87 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some Good, Some Challenges; Reports 2Q25 Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM

A Mixed Bag.  In the second quarter, Benihana delivered positive same store sales, and STK achieved positive traffic for the second and third consecutive quarters, respectively. However, Grill concept SSS were off 14.6% and the Company closed five locations in the quarter. Expenses were also higher than anticipated.

2Q25 Results. Overall revenue increased 20.2% y-o-y to $207.2 million, mostly due to a full quarter of Benihana. We had estimated $206.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $23.4 million, up 7.3% y-o-y, but below our $24.9 million estimate. ONE Group reported a GAAP net loss of $10.1 million, versus a net loss of $7.3 million a year ago. Including the preferred dividend, net loss per share was $0.59 versus a net loss per share of $0.38 last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.05 compared to $0.19 last year.  

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Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$7.46 | Price Target: $12)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Second Quarter Rebound, Raising Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Second quarter results. Seanergy reported second quarter net revenue of $37.5 million, ahead of our estimate of $36.5 million, driven by modestly higher time charter equivalent (TCE) rates. Operating expenses were in line with expectations, resulting in adjusted EBITDA of $18.3 million and EPS of $0.18, both ahead of our prior estimates of $16.7 million and $0.11.

Market outlook. The Capesize market returned to profitability in the second quarter, with improving demand fundamentals due to projects in both the Atlantic basin and West Africa. We expect elevated iron ore and bauxite volumes to support demand through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, resulting in increased ton-miles. Additionally, limited fleet growth is expected to support profitable rates.

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The GEO Group (GEO/$22.88 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Reports Second Quarter Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM

2Q25 Results. Revenue increased to $636.2 million from $607.2 million. We were at $615 million. Adjusted EBITDA was relatively flat at $118.6 million, or 18.6% of revenue, compared with $119.3 million, or 19.6% of revenue, last year, which was impacted by growth investments. GEO recorded adjusted EPS of $0.22 in 2Q25, flat with last year.

Growth. Management outlined additional growth opportunities over and above those already announced this year. For example, activation of the 5,900 idle beds could add $310 million to revenue, while temporary expanded capacity at facilities by another 5,000 beds could add another $250 million. Management noted ISAP growth is likely a 2026 plan.

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The ODP Corporation (ODP/$19.21 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Making Progress in the Second Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Q2 Overview. During the quarter, ODP saw improved revenue trends and delivered solid operating results, highlighted by stronger adjusted free cash flow generation. The results reflect ongoing improvements across both the consumer and B2B businesses. Retail meaningfully improved same-store sales trends versus last year, while the B2B business achieved approximately a 200-basis point improvement in year-over-year revenue trends.

Q2 Results. The ODP Corporation reported revenue of $1.59 billion in 2Q25, down from $1.72 billion in 2Q24. We had estimated $1.58 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $47 million, down from $57 million a year ago and in-line with our $44 million estimate. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.51 compared to $0.56 in 2Q24 and our $0.23 estimate.

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Townsquare Media (TSQ/$6.78 | Price Target: $21)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Delivers On Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM

In line Q2 results. Total revenue of $115.4 million, down 2.3% from the comparable year quarter, was in line with our $114.9 million estimate, a reflection of economic headwinds and slower digital revenue growth. Adj. EBITDA of $26.4 million was better than our $25.2 million estimate, reflecting better margins. 

Digital revenue slows, but margins improve. Digital advertising revenues were adversely impacted by industry wide declines in search referrals. And, its Interactive business revenue growth was interrupted by sales restructuring. Notably, margins rose in Q2 and are expected to be elevated above normalized levels for the balance of the year due to lower sales staffing.  

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 6, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – First Tranche of Financing Closed; Angel Island Added to the Federal Permitting Dashboard
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Better Than Expected Second Quarter Financial Results
Graham (GHM)/OUTPERFORM – Another Good Quarter
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Another Strong Quarter
Superior Group of Companies (SGC)/OUTPERFORM – Operating Momentum Improves

Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.21 | Price Target: $2.35)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
First Tranche of Financing Closed; Angel Island Added to the Federal Permitting Dashboard
Rating: OUTPERFORM

First tranche of LIFE offering closed. Century Lithium recently closed the first tranche of its previously announced the Listed Issuer Financing Exemption (LIFE) offering of up to 16,666,667 units at a price of C$0.30 per unit for gross proceeds of up to C$5,000,000. Each unit consists of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.45 for a period of 60 months following the issuance of the units. In the first tranche, Century issued a total of 9,559,833 units for aggregate gross proceeds of C$2,867,950. Certain directors and officers of the company purchased a total of 168,333 units in the initial closing.

Use of net proceeds. Net proceeds from the financing will be used to complete an updated feasibility study for the company’s Angel Island Lithium Project, complete the project’s Plan of Operations, work towards National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) compliance, and general working capital.

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Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$1.8 | Price Target: $4)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Post Call Commentary
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Positives. There were a number of positives in the quarter, such as the 120 bp sequential improvement in gross margin, strong FCF generation, improved top line performance in Electrical Systems, and higher adjusted operating income in both Seating and Electrical Systems, reflecting benefits from prior restructuring actions.

But End Markets. In spite of the operating successes, CVG’s end markets remain challenged. It appears the much hoped for rebound in the Class 8 truck market will not occur in 2026, with only modest improvement in 2027. Still early days for these types of forecasts, but the Class 8 truck market is still 40% of revenue. And no real change in the Ag and Construction markets, which remain soft.

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FreightCar America (RAIL/$10.4 | Price Target: $17)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Better Than Expected Second Quarter Financial Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Second quarter financial results. FreightCar America generated adjusted net income of $3.8 million or $0.11 per share, compared to our estimate of $2.0 million or $0.06 per share. Second quarter revenue of $118.6 million exceeded our estimate of $100.6 million. Rail car deliveries were 939 units compared to 1,159 units during the prior year period and our estimate of 850. The year-over-year decline was attributed to a strategic shift in the product mix toward higher-margin rail cars. As a percentage of revenue, second quarter gross margin increased to 15.0% compared to 12.5% during the prior year period and our 12.7% estimate. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $10.0 million compared to our $8.8 million estimate and represented an EBITDA margin of 8.4%.

Updating estimates. We are increasing our 2025 adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $47.3 million and $0.54, respectively, from $45.9 million and $0.47. Our 2026 EBITDA and EPS estimates have increased to $53.2 million and $0.64, respectively, from $48.6 million and $0.53. While our estimates reflect higher gross margin as a percentage of revenue, they also reflect increased sales, general, and administrative expenses.

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Graham (GHM/$46.97 | Price Target: $52)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Another Good Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Strong Quarter. Driven by continued strength across the diversified product portfolio, Graham delivered another solid quarter to start fiscal 2026. A highlight was the Energy and Process markets with strong growth driven by execution on major commercial projects and robust aftermarket demand, along with increasing momentum in emerging energy segments.

1Q26 Results. Revenue increased 11% to $55.5 million, slightly above our $54 million estimate. Gross margin improved 170 bp to 26.5%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 33% y-o-y to $6.8 million, with adjusted EBITDA margin up 200 bp to 12.3%. We were at $5.1 million. EPS increased 56% to $0.42 with adjusted EPS up 36% to $0.45. We were at $0.22 and $0.25, respectively.

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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$11.45 | Price Target: $14)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Another Strong Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM

2Q25 Results. Revenue was $193.8 million, compared to $170 million a year ago. We had forecast revenue of $175.5 million. Gross margin improved to 18.9% from 17.5% in the year ago quarter. Great Lakes reported adjusted EBITDA of $28 million in the quarter and EPS of $0.14. In 2Q24, the Company had adjusted EBITDA of $25.8 million and EPS of $0.11.

Drivers. Great Lakes delivered another solid quarter, supported by strong project execution, continued strength in capital dredging, and favorable equipment utilization, even with the headwinds of four dredges undergoing their regulatory drydocking at various points during the quarter.

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Superior Group of Companies (SGC/$9.58 | Price Target: $16)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Operating Momentum Improves
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Solid Q2 results. The company reported solid revenue and adj. EBITDA of $144.0 million and $7.4 million, respectively, both of which were better than our estimates of $131.8 million and $6.1 million, respectively. Notably, the strong operating results were largely driven by a 14% increase in Branded Products sales over the prior year period.

Mitigating tariff impact. Notably, management highlighted that its Branded Products segment is well-positioned to navigate the current tariff environment. Importantly, the company started diversifying manufacturing away from China during the first Trump administration and now sources the majority of its Branded Products outside of China. Furthermore, the company’s Healthcare Apparel segment produces all of its finished products outside of China.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – First Look: 2Q25 Shows Some Improvement but End Markets Remain Challenging
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter Financial Results Exceed Expectations
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Delek Group Ltd. to Acquire Major Stake in InPlay Oil
Steelcase (SCS)/MARKET PERFORM – To Be Acquired for $18.30/sh
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 2Q25 Results

Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$1.85 | Price Target: $4)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
First Look: 2Q25 Shows Some Improvement but End Markets Remain Challenging
Rating: OUTPERFORM

2Q25 Results. Revenue came in at $172 million, down from $193.7 million a year ago, but above our $158 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was $5.2 million, down from $8.2 million a year ago, and in-line with our $5 million estimate. Net loss from continuing operations was $4.1 million, or a loss of $0.12/sh, versus $1.3 million, or a loss of $0.04/sh in 2Q24. Adjusted net loss was $0.09/sh in 2Q25 versus adjusted EPS of $0.05 last year. We had forecasted a net loss of $2 million, or a loss of $0.06/sh.

Highlights. Gross margin improved 80 bp sequentially to 11.3% due to operational efficiency improvements. Free cash flow was $17.3 million, up $16.5 million, due to better working capital management. Net debt decreased $31.8 million compared to the year end 2024 level.

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FreightCar America (RAIL/$9.92 | Price Target: $16)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Second Quarter Financial Results Exceed Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Second quarter financial results. FreightCar America generated adjusted net income of $3.8 million or $0.11 per share, compared to our estimate of $2.0 million or $0.06 per share. Second quarter revenue of $118.6 million exceeded our estimate of $100.6 million. Rail car deliveries were 939 units compared to 1,159 units during the prior year period and our estimate of 850. The year-over-year decline was attributed to a strategic shift in the product mix toward higher-margin rail cars. As a percentage of revenue, second quarter gross margin increased to 15.0% compared to 12.5% during the prior year period and our 12.7% estimate. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $10.0 million compared to our $8.8 million estimate and represented an EBITDA margin of 8.4%. RAIL generated adjusted free cash flow of $7.9 million and ended the quarter with $61.4 million in cash and cash equivalents.

Favorable outlook. During the second quarter, RAIL received 1,226 new rail car orders valued at $106.9 million. With a backlog of 3,624 units valued at $316.9 million, we expect deliveries to accelerate throughout the year. During the quarter, RAIL increased utilization across its four production lines, enhanced productivity, and benefited from a higher-margin product mix. The company is advancing its growth strategy by investing in its tank car capabilities, which it expects to strengthen its cost position and support long-term accretive growth.

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InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$7.47 | Price Target: $15)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Delek Group Ltd. to Acquire Major Stake in InPlay Oil
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Delek Group to acquire major stake in InPlay.  Delek Group Ltd. (TASE: DLEKG) executed a definitive agreement to acquire Obsidian Energy’s (TSX: OBE, NYSE American: OBE) common share position in InPlay Oil, consisting of 9,139,784 common shares representing approximately 32.7% of InPlay’s issued and outstanding shares. Subject to certain adjustments, the purchase price is C$10.00 per InPlay share, representing an aggregate transaction value of C$91,397,840. Recall that Obsidian received the shares as partial consideration for its April sale of Pembina Cardium assets to InPlay Oil. The transaction with Delek is expected to close in the first half of August 2025 and remains subject to satisfaction or waiver of certain closing conditions.

Rationale. Delek is an independent exploration and production company based in Israel that has embarked on an international expansion with a focus on high-potential opportunities in the North Sea and North America. Delek views Canada as a strong and stable jurisdiction for oil and gas investment and identified InPlay as an attractive partner in the Canadian energy sector due to its strong record of operational performance and successful acquisitions. Delek holds a 52% equity interest in Ithaca Energy plc and has played a key role in supporting Ithaca’s production growth since the time of its initial investment.

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Steelcase (SCS/$16.58)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
To Be Acquired for $18.30/sh
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

To Be Acquired. Steelcase has entered into an agreement to be acquired by HNI Corporation in a cash and stock transaction with total consideration of approximately $2.2 billion to Steelcase common shareholders, or about $18.30/sh, an 80% premium to Friday’s close.

Details. Under the terms of the agreement, Steelcase shareholders will receive $7.20 in cash and 0.2192 shares of HNI common stock for each share of Steelcase. The implied per share purchase price of $18.30 is based on HNI’s closing share price of $50.62 on Friday, August 1, 2025, reflecting a valuation multiple at transaction close for Steelcase of approximately 5.8x TTM adjusted EBITDA, inclusive of run-rate cost synergies of $120 million. Upon closing, HNI shareholders will own approximately 64%, and Steelcase shareholders will own approximately 36% of the combined company. The deal is expected to close by year-end.

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V2X (VVX/$48.5 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Solid 2Q25 Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM

2Q25 Results. Revenue came in at $1.078 billion, essentially flat with last year’s $1.072 billion and was in-line with our $1.08 billion estimate. Helped by the pull forward of the conclusion of a non-recurring contractual commitment, adjusted EBITDA was $82.4 million, or a 7.6% margin, compared to $72.3 million, or a 6.7% margin, last year. V2X reported adjusted EPS of $1.33 for 2Q25, up from $0.83 in 2Q24.

Moving Up to Franchise Programs. Highlighted by last week’s T-6 services award, V2X’s pipeline is reflecting larger, franchise type programs. These programs typically leverage all of V2X’s mission critical capabilities. Management noted the 3-year qualified pipeline is now approximately $50 billion in size.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, August 4, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary and Updated Models
FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – Refinancing Framework
Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q25 Reported With All Three Trials On Schedule
Titan International (TWI)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q Results; End Markets Remain Challenging
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – A $4.3 Billion Contract Award

ACCO Brands (ACCO/$3.44 | Price Target: $9)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Post Call Commentary and Updated Models
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Mixed Environment. The operating environment remains mixed for ACCO. Americas sales continue to be impacted by tariffs and reduced spending for consumer and business products. The International segment is experiencing less disruption. If we can see some improvement in the environment, we are confident in ACCO’s ability to capture market share.

PowerA. Gaming was a positive contributor in the second quarter following the release of the Nintendo Switch 2, which became the fastest selling gaming console in history in the U.S. and Japan. As a leading third party accessory product assortment supporting the release

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FAT Brands (FAT/$2.21 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Refinancing Framework
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Refi Discussions. On or about July 9, 2025, FAT Brands entered into a confidentiality agreement with certain Holders of notes issued by the Company’s special purpose, whole business securitization financing subsidiaries. The Confidentiality Agreement facilitated the Company’s ability to engage in discussions with the Holders regarding one or more potential transactions involving a refinancing, restructuring or similar transaction with the Holders. As part of the confidentiality agreement, FAT Brands agreed to publicly disclose certain information, which Thursday’s 8-K accomplished.

First Look. The potential transaction described in the “Cleansing Material” was the Company’s initial proposal to the Holders. An agreement has not yet been reached with the Holders, and we expect negotiations to continue. The disclosed material provides summary term sheets for both FAT Brands’ and Twin Hospitality’s whole business securitizations.

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Ocugen (OCGN/$0.99 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
2Q25 Reported With All Three Trials On Schedule
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Product Updates All Three Trials Are On Schedule. Ocugen reported a 2Q25 loss of $14.7 million or $(0.05) per share. During the quarter, the clinical trials made progress to keep the products on schedule for 3 BLA filings beginning in 2026. The quarter also included a licensing agreement covering OCU400 in South Korea and the reverse merger to form OthroCellix, a new company focused on regenerative medicine.

OrthoCellix Has Been Formed To Develop NeoCart. Ocugen and Carisma Therapeutics, Inc. announced a reverse merger that will create a new company developing regenerative cellular therapies.  As discussed in our Research Note on June 24, NeoCart  cellular therapy is outside its main focus. The transaction is expected to close in September-October with the new company valued at $150 million. The Phase 3 pivotal trial is expected to begin in FY2025.

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Titan International (TWI/$8.48 | Price Target: $11)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
2Q Results; End Markets Remain Challenging
Rating: OUTPERFORM

2Q Overview. Titan reported 2Q25 results in-line with management expectations, even in an environment in which the Company’s end markets continue to be impacted by higher interest rates and tariff uncertainty. Significantly, the Company was able to maintain gross and EBITDA margins, which continue to be meaningfully above where they were in the last cyclical trough.

Results. Revenue of $460.8 million was down from $532.2 million a year ago. Lower end market demand in the Ag and Construction markets, along with a temporary slowdown at Titan Specialty, impacted the top line. We had estimated revenue of $480 million. Partly driven by a 431% income tax rate, Titan reported a net loss of $4.5 million, or a loss of $0.07/sh, compared to net income of $2.1 million, or EPS of $0.03/sh, last year. Adjusted loss was $0.02/sh compared to EPS of $0.10 in 2Q24.

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V2X (VVX/$47.34 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A $4.3 Billion Contract Award
Rating: OUTPERFORM

New Award. V2X, Inc. has been awarded a $4.3 billion indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract by the U.S. Air Force for Contractor Operated and Maintained Supply services in support of the T-6 aircraft. This is one of the largest contracts in V2X history and highlights the Company’s operating capabilities, in our view.

Details. This contract provides support for safe flyable aircraft to meet users’ daily flight schedule and depot requirements consistent with Department of Defense and commercial sector best practices in procuring, producing, and delivering products and services to customers. Work will be performed at a variety of military bases across the continental U.S. and is expected to be completed by July 31, 2034. This contract was a competitive source selection with three offers received.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 1, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – First Look into 2Q25 Results
Codere Online (CDRO)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Underlying Trends Masked By Currency Fluctuations
MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – Expansion into Pennsylvania
Perfect (PERF)/OUTPERFORM – Delivers Solid Q2 Top-Line Growth

ACCO Brands (ACCO/$3.75 | Price Target: $12)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
First Look into 2Q25 Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM

2Q25 Results. ACCO reported 2Q net sales and adjusted EPS in-line with management’s outlook. Revenue of $394.8 million was down 9.9% y-o-y. Comp sales were off 10.5% while favorable forex increased revenue by 0.6%. We had forecasted revenue of $390 million. Gross margin of 32.9% was below our 34.6% estimate. Net income totaled $29.2 million, or $0.31/sh, with adjusted EPS of $0.28 compared to $0.37 in 2Q24. We were at $0.21 and $0.32, respectively.

Drivers. Sales were immediately impacted by tariffs in April, although trends improved throughout the quarter. Net sales were also negatively impacted by softer global demand for consumer and business products, partially offset by growth in gaming accessories. ACCO continued to make progress on its cost cutting initiative, realizing more than $40 million in cumulative cost savings since inception.

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Codere Online (CDRO/$8.4 | Price Target: $14)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Strong Underlying Trends Masked By Currency Fluctuations
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Solid Q2 results. The company reported second quarter revenue of  €54.8 million, up 0.7% over the prior year period and largely in line with our estimate of €55.5 million. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was €2.3 million, up 77% over the prior year period and better than our estimate of €0.1 million.  Importantly, the top line results do not fully capture the company’s strong performance in Q2, given the devaluation of the Mexican Peso. On a constant currency basis, revenue was up 12%. 

Mexico continues to grow nicely. The company’s operations in Mexico had a strong quarter that was muted by a 19% devaluation of the Peso compared to the prior year period. Notably, the company grew active customers in Mexico by a strong 36% over the prior year period, and revenue was up 23% on a constant currency basis. In our view, the company had a solid quarter in Mexico and top line results should improve as it comps year earlier Peso valuations.

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MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.1 | Price Target: $0.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Expansion into Pennsylvania
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Pennsylvania Entrance. MariMed announced a strategic agreement with TILT Holdings that will expand the distribution of the Company’s award winning portfolio of medical marijuana products to Pennsylvania. We view this as a significant expansion of MariMed’s product line into one of the largest cannabis markets.

Pennsylvania Market. The Pennsylvania cannabis market is estimated at $1.7 billion of annual revenue, making Pennsylvania the sixth largest legal cannabis market in the U.S. Significantly, the state remains a medical state only. When, and if, adult recreational use is approved, the overall cannabis market is projected to at least double. There are currently in excess of 180 medical dispensaries in the state, providing a large potential base to distribute MariMed products into.

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Perfect (PERF/$1.96 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Delivers Solid Q2 Top-Line Growth
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Q2 largely in line. The company reported a Q2 revenue of $16.4 million (up an impressive 17.6% year-over-year) and an adj. EBITDA of a loss of $0.5 million. These results were largely in line with our estimates of $16.5 million in revenue and adj. EBITDA of $0.4 million.

Customer growth. The company continues to expand its user base across both B2C and B2B channels. Paying subscribers to its YouCam mobile beauty app rose 4.4% year over year to 960,000, while its B2B footprint grew to 818 brand clients and over 914,000 SKUs, up from 686 clients and 774,000 SKUs a year earlier. The number of Key B2B Customers (those generating at least $50,000 annually), however, declined to 139 from 151, with the drop evenly split between lower spending and customer churn tied to macro pressures.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 31, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Promising Target Zone Identified at the Awacha Copper Target
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – Abstract From A Single Patient Is Not A Safety Concern
FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – Reports 2Q25 Results
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – An Offering and Other Changes to Capital Structure

Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.11 | Price Target: $0.4)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Promising Target Zone Identified at the Awacha Copper Target
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Mapping program at Awacha. In 2024, an Anaconda-style mapping program was completed over a 17-square kilometer area at the Awacha porphyry copper target in Ecuador. A total of more than 2,200 outcrops were studied and described by field geologists and subsequently compiled into a database. Interpretation of the data was finalized in early June, and the company engaged porphyry copper expert Dr. Steve Garwin to review the mapping data and identify the most promising porphyry targets in the Awacha area. Dr. Garwin has been associated with several major discoveries, including the Alpala porphyry copper-gold deposit at the Cascabel project in Ecuador.

Large zone of interest. Following the mapping program, a large zone of hydrothermal alteration that is greater than six kilometers by four kilometers was revealed during a review and interpretation of the data. The area of interest, coincident with magnetic and conductive anomalies that indicate the potential for porphyry mineralization, warrants additional field work to refine hole locations for a future drill program.

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Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$3.16 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Abstract From A Single Patient Is Not A Safety Concern
Rating: OUTPERFORM

We Look Forward To Data At The World Transplant Congress. Eledon is scheduled to present interim data from its Phase 1b study at the World Transplant Congress (WTC), to be held August 2 to 6. We have also seen an abstract discussing a single patient in the Phase 2 BESTOW trial that had an unrelated fungal infection. While we do not consider the abstract to be significant, it may have raised safety concerns for investors.

WTC Abstract From One Patient May Have Been Misinterpreted. The abstract discusses “a unique case of pulmonary mucomycosis” in a patient enrolled in the Phase 2 BESTOW trial. Four weeks after receiving a kidney transplant and the tegoprubart regimen, he developed fever due to a rare fungal infection that was treated and resolved. “The patient remained on tegoprubart infusions and showed evidence of clinical improvement, without evidence of rejection or infection at follow-up visits”, stated the abstract.

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FAT Brands (FAT/$2.38 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Reports 2Q25 Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM

2Q25 Results. Revenue of $146.8 million declined 3.4% y-o-y, but was above our $141 million estimate. The revenue decline was driven by a decrease in restaurant revenue resulting from the closure of five underperforming Smokey Bones locations, the temporary closure of one Smokey Bones location for conversion into a Twin Peaks lodge, and lower same-store sales, partially offset by the opening of new Twin Peaks lodges. FAT Brands reported a net loss of $54.2 million, or a loss of $3.17/sh, compared to a net loss of $39.4 million, or a loss of $2.43/sh, last year. We had projected a net loss of $46 million or a loss of $2.56/sh.

Pipeline and Openings. The development pipeline remains robust with roughly 1,000 signed deals. Eighteen new locations opened during the quarter, with FAT Brands well positioned to see 100 locations open in 2025. The opening of new locations will help drive go-forward adjusted EBITDA for the Company.

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MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.54)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
An Offering and Other Changes to Capital Structure
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

Capital Structure. MustGrow announced a series of changes to be made to its capital structure including (i) a non-brokered private placement of up to 4,285,715 units of the Company (ii) the proposed repricing of outstanding share purchase warrants issued pursuant to its January 16, 2025 private placement and (iii) its intention to offer shares for debt settlement to all holders of unsecured convertible debentures issued pursuant to its January 16, 2025 private placement.

“LIFE” Offering. The 4,285,715 units will be offered at a price of CAD$0.70 per unit for gross proceeds of up to $3.0 million. Each unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant exercisable for 60 months at an exercise price of $0.90 per warrant. Net proceeds will be used for inventory production of TerraSante, inventory for agricultural products to sell via its Canadian distribution platform, NexusBioAg, and working capital and general corporate purposes.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 30, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – Solid Second Quarter Performance; Cash Flow Profile Remains Attractive
FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – Charges Dropped
Graham (GHM)/OUTPERFORM – $25.5 Million Follow-on Order

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$27.33 | Price Target: $32)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Solid Second Quarter Performance; Cash Flow Profile Remains Attractive
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Second quarter financial results. Alliance reported second quarter adjusted EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $161.9 million and $0.46, respectively, compared to $181.4 million and $0.77 during the prior year period. We had projected EBITDA and EPU of $159.8 million and $0.57. Reported earnings per unit include a $25 million non-cash impairment charge. Total revenue amounted to $547.5 million compared to $593.4 million during the prior year period and our $577.4 million estimate. The variance compared to our revenue estimate was largely due to lower coal sales.

Outlook for the remainder of 2025 and 2026. Management increased the top end of 2025 coal tonnage sales guidance, kept overall coal sales price expectations intact, and lowered guidance for segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold. Notably, oil and gas royalty volume expectations were increased, while segment adjusted EBITDA expense as a percentage of oil and gas royalty revenues was decreased to 14% from 15%. While management expects the average coal sales price per ton to trend lower in 2026 due to higher-priced contracts rolling off, longwall moves in 2025 and actions to improve productivity and cost effectiveness are expected to offset the impact of lower prices.

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FAT Brands (FAT/$2.4 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Charges Dropped
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Charges Dropped. Last night, FAT Brands announced that the United States Attorney for the Central District of California has filed a motion to dismiss all charges against Andrew Wiederhorn, FAT Brands, Rebecca Hershinger, and William Amon. This is a major development in our view, not only removing significant ongoing related legal fees for FAT Brands, but also any lingering reputational risk investors may have had related to the action. It remains to be seen if last night’s action will result in a similar favorable resolution to the SEC civil action.

Background. The original charges from the U.S. District Attorney were filed back in May 2024, while, simultaneously, the SEC filed a civil complaint accusing Mr. Wiederhorn of using FAT cash to fund his lifestyle, while falsely telling the Company’s auditors, Board of Directors, and investors that neither he nor his family members had any direct or indirect material interest in the FAT cash used by Mr. Wiederhorn for personal expenditures.

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Graham (GHM/$55.46 | Price Target: $52)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
$25.5 Million Follow-on Order
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Follow-on Order. Yesterday, Graham Corporation announced the Company was awarded a follow-on order to produce critical hardware for the MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight torpedo program. This was a sole sourced award. Graham typically receives an annual order for this program once funding is approved for the current year’s supply.

MK48 Program. The follow-on order is valued at approximately $25.5 million. Graham manufactures and tests the alternators and regulators for the MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight torpedo through its Barber-Nichols subsidiary. We believe there are two more option years remaining under the current program in which 50-120 MK 48s are produced annually.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 29, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Not the Best Way to Stimulate Mining Investment in Ecuador
GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q25 Reported With MVA and Gedeptin Trial Updates

Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.1 | Price Target: $0.4)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Not the Best Way to Stimulate Mining Investment in Ecuador
Rating: OUTPERFORM

New mining service fee. Ecuador implemented a new mining service fee, Tasa de Fiscalizacion Minera (TASA), on the resource sector. Aurania received notice of the fee associated with its project in Ecuador. The Ecuadorian Control and Regulation Agency (ARCOM) has requested payment of US$2,012,618 by July 31, 2025, representing one month of the total annual fee of US$24,151,420, to help fund ARCOM’s efforts. Because we do not anticipate significant negative repercussions associated with deferring payment, we think Aurania will withhold payment until it becomes clear whether TASA will stand in its current form.

TASA is being challenged. The new fee represents a significant cost burden for junior exploration companies. Multiple constitutional challenges have been filed in Ecuador and are being analyzed by the Court to determine if the claims will be accepted, which could take several months. If accepted, the constitutional challenges could take several years, and ARCOM may or may not be directed to suspend the collection of fees until claims are resolved. Reasonable accommodations will likely need to be made.

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GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$0.74 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
2Q25 Reported With MVA and Gedeptin Trial Updates
Rating: OUTPERFORM

GeoVax Reports 2Q25 Financials With Updates Trials For MVA and Gedeptin. GeoVax reported a 2Q25 loss of $5.4 million or $(0.35) per share. Revenues of $0.9 million were for work performed under the BARDA contract prior to its cancellation in April 2025. During the quarter, the EMEA communicated that the GEO-MVA vaccine in development for smallpox/Mpox could skip Phase 1 and 2, then receive approval based on Phase 3 immune markers. The company also amended its trial plans for Gedeptin in HNSCC.

GEO-MVA Phase 3 Is Expected To Begin In 2H26. As discussed in our Research Note on June 17,GeoVax received Scientific Advice (SA) from the EMA for GEO-MVA smallpox/Mpox vaccine stating the Phase 1 and 2 studies would not been needed. An MAA will only require a single Phase 3 immuno-bridging trial comparing the immune response in healthy volunteers receiving GEO-MVA against the approved vaccine. The study is expected to begin in 2H26.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, July 28, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Strong 4Q; But Environment Still Recovering

Resources Connection (RGP/$5.79 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Strong 4Q; But Environment Sill Recovering
Rating: OUTPERFORM

4Q25 Results. Results came in above guidance. Revenue was $139.3 million, versus a high end guide of $137 million and exceeded our $132 million estimate. Gross margin of 40.2% was also above the high end of guidance, was flat y-o-y, and above our 37% estimate. The bottom line was impacted by a $69 million goodwill impairment charge, resulting in a loss of $2.23/sh for the quarter. Adjusted EPS was $0.16 versus $0.28 in 4Q24 and was above our estimate and the consensus estimate of a loss of $0.01/sh. Adjusted EBITDA was $9.8 million, above our $2.4 million estimate.

Pipeline. While overall pipeline contracted during the quarter, pipeline creation efforts grew in all regions with a higher volume of larger value deals. RGP secured multiple new opportunities exceeding $1 million and expanded the number of $1 million-plus projects in the pipeline relative to the same quarter last year. The Company is also seeing growing momentum in larger opportunities, each exceeding $5 million.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 24, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

EuroDry (EDRY)/MARKET PERFORM – Revising 2025 Estimates
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing 2025 Estimates
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Our Forward Estimates and Increasing our PT
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Estimates and Market Outlook
Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – Steps On The Customer Acquisition Accelerator

EuroDry (EDRY/$10.8)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Revising 2025 Estimates
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

Second quarter estimates. We are lowering our Q2 2025 revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates to $11.4 million and a loss of $1.23, respectively, from $14.1 million and a loss of $0.76. Additionally, we are reducing our operating expenses to $13.0 million from $14.4 million, as dry docking expenses have been pushed into the third quarter. Despite lower operating expenses, we are decreasing our adjusted EBITDA estimate to $1.6 million from $2.9 million. The decrease in our earnings estimates is mainly due to lower-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rates.

Full-Year 2025 estimates. We are lowering our 2025 revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates to $46.0 million and a loss of $4.41, respectively, from $50.3 million and a loss of $3.79. We are trimming our operating expenses to $51.4 million from $51.8 million, due to lower expected voyage expenses. Our adjusted EBITDA estimates were lowered to $5.6 million from $9.3 million. The lower estimates are driven by soft market rates.

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Euroseas (ESEA/$50.99 | Price Target: $57)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Increasing 2025 Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Updating second quarter estimates. We are raising our second quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates to $56.7 million and $3.87, respectively, from $54.0 million and $3.45. Additionally, we are increasing our adjusted EBITDA estimate to $38.5 million from $35.0 million. The upward revisions are driven by stronger-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rates.

Full-year 2025 estimates. For the full-year 2025, we expect higher revenues and adjusted earnings per share estimates of $228.5 million and $15.47, respectively, up from $225.6 million and $15.05. We are raising our operating expense estimates to $83.0 million from $81.7 million, due to higher dry-docking expenses. Our full year adjusted EBITDA estimate has been increased to $153.1 million from $149.2 million. The increases in our estimates are largely due to higher TCE rates. 

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FreightCar America (RAIL/$11.54 | Price Target: $16)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Updating Our Forward Estimates and Increasing our PT
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Increasing longer-term rail car delivery estimates. While we have maintained our rail car delivery estimates for 2025 through 2027, we have increased our delivery estimates for 2028 through 2030. We now forecast rail car deliveries of 5,500, 5,750, and 6,000, respectively, compared with our prior estimates of 5,000, 5,000, and 5,000. While we had previously assumed that RAIL would operate four production lines with an aggregate capacity of 5,000 rail cars through 2030, we now assume the company will operate five production lines with a total capacity of 6,250 rail cars beginning in 2028. Our prior assumption had been that the company could begin producing a new line of higher-margin tank cars using existing capacity at the expense of lower margin products. Because we think tank cars could add an incremental 500 or more orders beginning in 2028, the tank cars would be incremental to existing orders with five production lines.

Updating earnings estimates. We forecast 2025 EBITDA and EPS of $45.9 million and $0.47, respectively, while our 2026 estimates are $48.6 million and $0.53. While our 2025 and 2026 EBITDA estimates are unchanged, we have increased our forward estimates, which may be found in the financial model at the end of this report. While our earnings estimates have increased, gross margin as a percentage of sales remains unchanged at 13.0%, 13.3%, 13.5%, and 13.8% in 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2030, respectively, while selling, general, and administrative expense as a percentage of sales increased modestly. 

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Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$7 | Price Target: $9)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Updating Estimates and Market Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Second Quarter 2025 Estimate Revisions. We are raising our Q2 2025 net revenue forecast to $36.5 million from $35.9 million, driven by stronger-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rates. However, we are lowering our adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $16.7 million and $0.11, respectively, from $17.3 million and $0.17, reflecting higher operating expenses of $29.1 million versus $27.5 million previously. The increase reflects a full quarter of the expanded fleet as well as higher-than-expected dry-docking activity.

Full-Year 2025 Estimate Changes. We are increasing our 2025 revenue forecast to $143.4 million from $142.9 million, as we expect improving rate momentum to continue through year-end. We are also raising our operating expense estimate to $113.9 million from $109.4 million, reflecting a greater number of anticipated dry-docking days. As a result, we are lowering our adjusted EBITDA projection to $67.7 million from $70.5 million and our EPS estimate to $0.51 from $0.74.

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Travelzoo (TZOO/$12.55 | Price Target: $26)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Steps On The Customer Acquisition Accelerator
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Mixed second quarter results. Revenues significantly increased 13.1% to $23.9 million, a sequential quarterly increase from 5.3% in Q1, reflecting its strategic shift toward a subscription based model. Adj. EBITDA fell short of our expectations, however, due to a step up in customer acquisition spend and the purchase of “distressed” vouchers. 

Favorable customer acquisition dynamics. Customer acquisition costs went up in Q2 to $38 from $28 in Q1, but still remains positive. Total return is $58, $40 from the annual subscription fee and $18 from transactions. Management anticipates to continue to aggressively spend on customer acquisition in light of the favorable Return on Investment. These moves support a longer term attractive revenue outlook, but have a near term adverse impact on adj. EBITDA.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 23, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI)/OUTPERFORM – Improving Oncology Treatment While Cutting Costs

The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI/$3.54 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Improving Oncology Treatment While Cutting Costs
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Initiating Coverage of The Oncology Institute With An Outperform Rating. The Oncology Institute of Hope & Innovation (TOI) is a medical practice management company specializing in community-based oncology practices. It manages and operates oncology clinics in five states using its proprietary, value-based methodology. These treatment regimens have improved outcomes for patients while reducing the cost of care.

TOI Uses Capitated Contracts To Control Costs. TOI enters into contracts with third-party payers to treat a specified number of health plan members based on the estimated per-member, per-month cost. This method of providing coverage based on population size is known as capitation. It also offers traditional fee-for-service as well as value-based oncology care.  This provides TOI with the flexibility to contract with more insurance plans.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 22, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Angel Island Lithium Carbonate Proves its Value
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Our Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation; Raising Price Target

Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.25 | Price Target: $2.35)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Angel Island Lithium Carbonate Proves its Value
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Lithium-metal anodes. Century Lithium announced that Alpha-En Corporation successfully converted Century’s lithium carbonate into battery-grade lithium-metal anodes for use in lithium-ion batteries. The lithium-metal anodes were produced using 99.8% pure lithium carbonate from Century’s Angel Island project and demonstration plant. The sample was converted by Alpha-En into lithium metal using Alpha-En’s patented conversion process.

LFP 18650 battery cells. Earlier in the month, Century announced that First Phosphate Corp. produced commercial-grade lithium iron phosphate (LFP) 18650 battery cells using North American critical minerals, including lithium carbonate sourced from Century’s Angel Island project and demonstration plant, along with high-purity phosphoric acid and iron powder from First Phosphate’s Begin-Lamarche property in Quebec. The LFP 18650 battery cells were assembled for First Phosphate by Ultion Technologies at their pilot facility in Nevada.

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Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.51 | Price Target: $0.75)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Updating Our Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation; Raising Price Target
Rating: OUTPERFORM

The Merritt Mill is processing ore. Nicola Mining’s (TSX.V: NIM, OTCQB: HUSIF) 100% owned Merritt Mill in British Columbia recently began milling and processing ore from Talisker Resources Ltd.’s (TSX: TSK, OTCQX: TSKFF) Mustang mine to produce gold and silver concentrate. On May 11, Talisker began trucking material to the Craigmont Mill. The commencement of milling operations marked Nicola’s transition to a long-term production plan and sustained revenue and cash flow generation.

Flow-through financing. Nicola Mining raised gross proceeds of C$2,175,000 with a non-brokered private placement of 4,350,000 units at a price of C$0.50 per unit. Each unit consists of one flow-through common share and one-half of one non-flow-through common share purchase warrant. Each warrant is exercisable at a price of C$0.65 and expires two years from the date of issuance. The financing was oversubscribed by a total of 350,000 units or C$175,000. Proceeds will be used to fund exploration at the company’s New Craigmont Copper Project.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, July 21, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Estimates and a First Look at 2026

InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$7.4 | Price Target: $15)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Increasing Estimates and a First Look at 2026
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Company strategy. Despite the recent improvement in oil prices, InPlay is maintaining its 2025 production guidance at 16,000 to 16,800 boe/d. Management reiterated that the strategy remains centered on capital discipline, prioritizing debt reduction over production growth. The company’s approach is supported by fluctuating oil prices and the performance of assets acquired from Obsidian Energy, which have demonstrated low decline rates and continue to well-exceed type curve expectations. Recall that as part of the transaction, Obsidian Energy received InPlay shares as part of the consideration.

Non-binding offer. InPlay Oil announced that Obsidian Energy has entered into a non-binding agreement with a third party for the sale of its entire position in InPlay, totaling 9,139,784 common shares. The proposed transaction is expected to occur at a premium to InPlay’s share price as of July 15, 2025. While the parties remain in discussions, no binding agreement has been finalized at this time.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, July 18, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – More News; Updated Model

Bit Digital (BTBT/$4.01 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
More News; Updated Model
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Updated Model. Earlier this week, Bit Digital announced preliminary revenue for 2Q25 in the $24.3-$26.9 million range, which is modestly below our and consensus estimates. The difference, in our view, is likely driven by the push to the right of some contracts. We are not too concerned as of now, as we expect the contracts to come online this year.

Adjusted Numbers. We lowered our 2Q revenue expectation to $25.3 million from a prior $31.6 million, with the biggest change coming in the Cloud Services and Mining line items. Net loss is now at $4.4 million, or $0.02/sh, versus a prior loss of $1.4 million, or $0.01/sh.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Extending a Track Record of Returning Capital to Shareholders
SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Temporary Pressure, Strong Path Forward
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Amends Senior Revolving Credit Facility

Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.41 | Price Target: $2.4)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Extending a Track Record of Returning Capital to Shareholders
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Special dividend. Hemisphere Energy declared a special dividend of C$0.03 per common share that is payable on August 15 to shareholders of record as of July 31. It is in addition to the company’s quarterly base dividend of C$0.025 per common share and is Hemisphere’s second special dividend payment in 2025.

Normal course issuer bid. Hemisphere Energy recently announced that the TSX Venture Exchange had accepted its notice to renew its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) to purchase for cancellation up to 7,934,731 common shares. Purchases will be made on the open market at prevailing market prices through the TSXV. The NCIB commenced on July 14, 2025, and will terminate on July 13, 2026.

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SelectQuote (SLQT/$2.23 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Temporary Pressure, Strong Path Forward
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Setting up fiscal 2026. We are adjusting our fiscal Q4 estimates to reflect updated expectations for the Medicare Advantage market, with a particular focus on recent regulatory changes affecting Special Needs Plans (SNPs). While these developments introduce near-term challenges, we believe SelectQuote is well-positioned heading into fiscal 2026. We expect the company to rebuild agent capacity ahead of the next Annual Enrollment Period (AEP), to support a trajectory of sustained revenue growth and adj. EBITDA margin expansion.

Special Needs changes. Our revised Q4 outlook is primarily driven by recent changes implemented by CMS that restructure Special Needs Plan switching rights. The policy shift narrows mid-year enrollment flexibility for a significant portion of dual-eligible consumers (those enrolled in non-integrated D-SNPs), leading to the prospect of a smaller pool of shopping beneficiaries during the middle of calendar 2025. In addition, we are accounting for SelectQuote’s reduced year-over-year agent count, which entered fiscal 2025 approximately 22% below the prior-year level due to capital constraints at the time. These factors combined create a more muted backdrop for near-term Medicare Advantage performance.

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The GEO Group (GEO/$25.04 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Amends Senior Revolving Credit Facility
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Amended Facility. The GEO Group announced amendments to its April 2024 Credit Agreement that provide enhanced flexibility, better terms, and an extended maturity. Along with the additional payments on the outstanding debt, GEO has taken another step closer to being able to return capital to shareholders, in our view.

Details. The Amendment increases GEO’s revolver commitments from $310 million to $450 million and extends the maturity to July 14, 2030. The Amendment further provides that interest will accrue on outstanding revolving credit loans at a rate determined with reference to the Company’s total leverage ratio, which, as of today, reduces the rate by 0.50% from the prior applicable rate. The Amendment also increases GEO’s capacity to make restricted payments over the next five years.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – A Compelling Transaction

Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$10.29 | Price Target: $17.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
A Compelling Transaction
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Purchases real estate. The company announced that it purchased the real estate of 58 existing bowling centers for $306 million from Carlyle Group, its main sale leaseback partner. The real estate is located in California, Illinois, Georgia, Arizona, and Colorado. With the purchase, the company now owns roughly 75 of its over 350 bowling centers. 

Financing set. The company amended its existing credit facility to provide a bridge loan of $230 million towards the purchase. Cash was used for the remaining purchase amount. We believe that the company will reduce the bridge loan over the course of the next year through free cash flow generation. 

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, July 14, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Estimates, Raising PT
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Fast Tracked Drone Opportunity; Raising PT

AZZ (AZZ/$106.04 | Price Target: $125)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Increasing Estimates, Raising PT
Rating: OUTPERFORM

First quarter financial results. For the first quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2026, AZZ reported adjusted net income of $53.8 million or $1.78 per share compared to $44.0 million or $1.46 per share during the prior year period and our estimate of $50.1 million or $1.66 per share. Compared to the first quarter of FY 2025, sales increased 2.1% to $422.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 13.1% to $106.4 million, representing 25.2% of sales compared to 22.8% of sales during the prior year period.

Updating estimates. We have increased our FY 2026 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $388.3 million and $6.00, respectively, from $381.7 million and $5.83. In FY 2026, our estimates reflect average gross margins of 30.0% and 20.3% for the Metal Coatings and Precoat Metals segments, respectively. Moreover, we have published our estimates for 2027 through 2031 in the back of this report. Our forward estimates reflect an average 30.5% gross margin as a percentage of sales for the Metal Coatings segment, compared to the prior average of 28.0%. The average gross margin as a percentage of sales for the Precoat Metals business is unchanged at 20.3%.

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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$51.71 | Price Target: $60)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Fast Tracked Drone Opportunity; Raising PT
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Directive. Building on President Trump’s June 6th Executive Order to Unleash American Drone Dominance, this past week Defense Secretary Hegseth signed a memo removing restrictive policies on drone innovation. By leveraging savings from DOGE, the DOD will help power a technological leapfrog and bolster the U.S. drone industry by approving hundreds of made-in-America drone products for purchase by the military. These goals play right into Kratos’ wheelhouse, in our view.

New Focus. The directive focuses on three key areas: strengthening the U.S. drone manufacturing base, arming combat units with a variety of low-cost drones, and ensuring those combat units are well-trained on how to use them. Kratos has been expanding its drone production capabilities, which the recent capital raise will turbocharge. Its drone technology is proven and available today, and the Company is the leader in providing target drones to the military.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 10, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2026
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – Meeting Highlights Tegoprubart Data Milestones and New Indications

AZZ (AZZ/$100.73 | Price Target: $112)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2026
Rating: OUTPERFORM

FY 2026 first quarter financial results. AZZ reported adjusted net income of $53.8 million or $1.78 per share compared to $44.0 million or $1.46 per share during the prior year period. We had forecast adjusted net income of $50.1 million or $1.66 per share. Compared to the first quarter of FY 2025, sales increased 2.1% to $422.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 13.1% to $106.4 million, representing 25.2% of sales compared to 22.8% of sales during the prior year period. We had projected adjusted EBITDA of $99.5 million. 

Meaningful debt reduction. Cash from operations during the fiscal first quarter amounted to $314.8 million, including proceeds of $273.2 million received from AVAIL’s sale of the Electrical Products Group. Following debt reduction of $285.4 million, AZZ ended the quarter with a net leverage ratio of 1.7x TTM adjusted EBITDA. As of May 31, long-term debt, gross was $614.9 million compared to $900.3 million on February 28. Net of unamortized debt issuance costs, long-term debt was $569.8 million on May 31 compared to $852.4 million on February 28.

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Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$3.4 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Meeting Highlights Tegoprubart Data Milestones and New Indications
Rating: OUTPERFORM

R&D Day Highlighted Science, Current Trials, Future Indications. We attended the Eledon R&D Day on July 9 to hear and evaluate the progress in tegoprubart development. The presentations focused on the current clinical indications in renal transplantation, islet cell transplantation, xenotransplants, and plans for liver and other solid organ transplants. Conference presentation dates for upcoming data announcements were also announced.

Phase 1b Data Update Is Planned For August. The Phase 1b open-label trial has been expanded to enroll up to 36 patients, an increase from the original 9 patients. Data is scheduled for presentation at the World Transplant Congress on August 9, 2025. Previous data presentations have included 13 patients. We expect to see follow-up data from more patients treated longer, with data from additional patients beyond the initial 12-month trial duration.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – Outlook Remains Favorable, Increasing 2025 Estimates
E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Strengthening Its Station Portfolio
Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Seeking Fuel For Growth

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$26.72 | Price Target: $31)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Outlook Remains Favorable, Increasing 2025 Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Updating estimates. We are increasing our 2025 adjusted EBITDA and EPU estimates to $676.5 million and $2.55, respectively, from $672.6 million and $2.52. We increased our crude oil and natural gas price estimates based on CME futures settlements, which had a positive impact on oil and gas royalty revenue. Our 2026 adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates are unchanged at $678.3 million and $2.60, respectively. While management expects the average coal sales price per ton to trend lower in 2026 due to higher-priced contracts rolling off, we think 2025 longwall moves and actions to improve productivity and cost effectiveness could help offset the impact of lower prices.

Recent legislation expected to benefit the fossil fuel industry. Following several executive orders earlier in the year intended to support the coal industry and delay coal power plant retirements, the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) was signed into law on July 4 and is expected to benefit the fossil fuel industry. Among other things, the BBB phases out many of the clean energy tax credits established under the Inflation Reduction Act and creates a supportive environment for oil, gas, and coal production.

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E.W. Scripps (SSP/$3.42 | Price Target: $10)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Strengthening Its Station Portfolio
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Compelling station swap. Scripps will be selling its stations in Lansing MI and Lafayette LA to Gray Television (GTN: Not Rated) and buying stations in Colorado Springs, CO and Grand Junction, CO and a station in Twin Falls ID. We view the move favorably, given that Scripps will create station duopolies and strengthen its presence in the West. We believe that the move will create significant efficiencies for both companies, eliminating back office, duplicative, and overhead costs. This will be an even swap with no cash compensation to either party. 

FCC fast track? The FCC has signaled its willingness to fast track the regulatory process, likely to provide a “waiver” to create duopolies rather than to seek a longer review/rulemaking process. As such, we believe that the transaction could be completed by year end. 

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Xcel Brands (XELB/$1.58 | Price Target: $9)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Seeking Fuel For Growth
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Files S1. The company plans to sell 1.381 million shares on a “best efforts” basis and pre-funded warrants. Pre-funded warrants are exercisable at any time after the date of issuance and may be exercised at any time. Notably, management has indicated its interest in participating in the offering for up to 10% of the shares. Following the prospective sale, total shares outstanding would increase to 3.819 million shares. 

Use of proceeds. Based on the current stock price and assuming all shares are sold, management expects to generate roughly $1.9 million in net proceeds from the offering. The company plans to use the proceeds for working capital and general corporate purposes and toward a $50,000 principal loan payment to a company controlled by Robert D’Loren, the company’s Chairman and CEO. 

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Wednesday, April 02, 2025

Xcel Brands, Inc. 1333 Broadway 10th Floor New York, NY 10018 United States https:/Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 84 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Robert W. D’Loren Chairman, Pres & CEO 1.27M N/A 1958 Mr. James F. Haran CFO, Principal Financial & Accou

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Industry dynamics. The QVC Group recently announced that it is laying off 900 employees as part of its effort to become a live social shopping company. Notably, while we don’t anticipate QVC will stop live selling on traditional TV, the increased focus on social commerce is illustrative of changing consumer viewing habits. In our view, XCEL Brands is well positioned to benefit from shift in viewing habits toward streaming alternatives.

Valuable expertise. XCEL Brands is a veteran in the live selling space and has extensive experience working with celebrities to help bring their products to market and help them sell. In our view, the company is well positioned to provide celebrities with expertise both in traditional TV and social commerce selling, or live streaming.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.