Wednesday, October 11, 2023
Alvopetro Energy Ltd.’s vision is to become a leading independent upstream and midstream operator in Brazil. Our strategy is to unlock the on-shore natural gas potential in the state of Bahia in Brazil, building off the development of our Caburé natural gas field and our strategic midstream infrastructure.
Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Gas sales declined due to a temporary reduction in demand. Gas sales to Bahiagas in September averaged 6.8 MMcf/d down 35% from August sales and well below peak sales of 15.8 MMcf/d in the March quarter. Gas sales were below take or pay agreements by 1.2 MMcf/d, which will be treated as deferred revenue. Gas sales had been declining in recent months because Alvopetro’s joint venture partner in its primary field had increased its nominations for gas sales following the start-up of its plant. The decline in September is related to lower demand and comes in addition to nomination issues.
Management views the decline as temporary and is working to increase production in 100% owned fields. As we have indicated before, increased partner nominations will result in lower partner nominations in the latter years of well lives. In addition, Alvopetro is making progress drilling new wells that do not have nomination issues. Regarding the drop in demand, we would remind investors that the city of Bahia is a vibrant growing city that has limited gas supply options beyond Alvopetro. We are not concerned with a one-month decline in demand but recommend investors monitor demand issues going forward.
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