Monday, November 10, 2025
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Overview. GEO Group reported 3Q25 results at or above expectations, excluding one-time impacts. Nonetheless, the shares sold off on concerns about the pace of detentions and uncertain additional facility activations. Notably, since the beginning of the year, GEO has entered into new or expanded contracts that represent over $460 million in new incremental annualized revenues that are already under contract and are expected to normalize in 2026. This represents the largest amount of new business the Company has won in a single year in its history.
3Q25 Results. Revenue of $682.3 million rose 13.1% y-o-y. We were at $650 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $120.1 million, or a 17.6% margin compared to $118.6 million, or a 19.7% margin. GAAP EPS was impacted by a $232.4 million gain from the sale of Lawton and a $37.7 million non-cash charge in connection with litigation. Adjusted EPS was $0.25 versus $0.21 last year and our $0.22 estimate.
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