Month: December 2023

MicroStrategy Stock Skyrockets 337% in 2023 on Bitcoin Play

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Business intelligence software company MicroStrategy has seen its stock price explode in 2023, gaining a massive 337% so far this year. This meteoric rise is almost entirely fueled by the company’s big bet on bitcoin starting in 2020.

Unlike other major tech stocks like Nvidia and Meta which rely on growing revenue and market share, MicroStrategy’s appeal to investors stems from its holdings of the popular cryptocurrency bitcoin. The company has accumulated around 174,530 bitcoins worth approximately $7.65 billion as of late December 2022. MicroStrategy began buying bitcoin in July 2020 as a way to invest its excess corporate cash.

At the time, MicroStrategy was a relatively small software company with minimal profits. But its co-founder and then-CEO Michael Saylor saw an opportunity to boost returns on idle cash by purchasing bitcoin, which he viewed as “digital gold.” This allowed stock investors to gain exposure to bitcoin prices without directly buying the cryptocurrency.

Remarkably, MicroStrategy’s market valuation is now over $8 billion, meaning 90% of its value comes directly from its bitcoin holdings rather than its core software business. When bitcoin rises or falls, so does MicroStrategy stock. For example, 2022’s bitcoin plunge of 64% dragged MicroStrategy shares down 74%.

Saylor’s Bitcoin Bet Pays Off Big for MicroStrategy

Michael Saylor first announced MicroStrategy’s new bitcoin buying strategy in July 2020. At the time, the company had over $500 million in cash and short-term investments, but was earning little return due to rock-bottom interest rates.

Saylor decided that bitcoin offered a better store of value than either cash or gold. By Q4 2020, MicroStrategy held over 40,000 bitcoins and its stock had doubled for the year. Fast forward to 2023, and Saylor’s bitcoin bet has multiplied MicroStrategy’s stock price over 5-fold from its pre-bitcoin days.

Despite stepping down as CEO in 2022, Saylor remains executive chairman and a bitcoin bull. He expects mainstream adoption of bitcoin as an asset class to grow from 0.1% of global capital to 0.2% and higher. While bitcoin ETFs may provide some competition when approved, MicroStrategy retains an advantage in actively managing its bitcoin trove.

MicroStrategy Now Viewed as a Bitcoin Holding Company

MicroStrategy was founded in 1989 and operated for most of its history as an under-the-radar provider of business intelligence software. But bitcoin has thrust the company into the spotlight, to the point where it is now valued essentially as a bitcoin holding company.

This represents a novel use of corporate cash. Some other companies like Tesla and Block (Square) have also put portions of their balance sheet into bitcoin. However, MicroStrategy is unique in that bitcoin comprises 90% of its market valuation.

In 2023, investors have rewarded MicroStrategy’s first-mover status with a “scarcity premium” as one of the only publicly traded ways to gain pure-play exposure to bitcoin prices. However, this premium could erode as new spot bitcoin ETFs enter the market. But for now, MicroStrategy remains a one-of-a-kind bitcoin play for stock investors.

MicroStrategy Keeps Buying More Bitcoin

Despite its already enormous bitcoin position, MicroStrategy shows no signs of letting up in its accumulation of the cryptocurrency. In November 2022, the company purchased another 16,130 bitcoins for over $593 million.

MicroStrategy has adopted an aggressive “buy the dip” strategy, utilizing its steady software cash flows to continue building its bitcoin treasury. So far this strategy has paid off tremendously for shareholders.

However, detractors point to the huge risks inherent in MicroStrategy’s ultra-high concentration in such a volatile asset. Bitcoin prices can see massive swings, as in 2022 when it fell from nearly $69,000 to under $17,000 by year-end. But Michael Saylor firmly believes bitcoin will continue appreciating over the long term.

MicroStrategy Stock Surges as Bitcoin Short Sellers Get Burned

With such an enormous bet on bitcoin, it’s not surprising that MicroStrategy has been a prime target for short sellers betting against further bitcoin-fueled stock gains. About 23% of available MicroStrategy shares are currently shorted, the second highest percentage among crypto-related stocks.

But so far, the short sellers have been the ones getting burned. In just the first three quarters of 2022, over $2 billion worth of short positions were covered at a loss. Data shows short sellers lost approximately $1.4 billion specifically on bearish MicroStrategy bets this year.

If bitcoin rebounds strongly in 2023 as many analysts expect, it could force even more short covering and propel MicroStrategy shares even higher. This dynamic explains why MicroStrategy has so dramatically outpaced bitcoin itself in 2023, more than doubling the cryptocurrency’s own gains.

Conclusion: One-of-a-Kind Bitcoin Play

In conclusion, MicroStrategy has morphed from an obscure software maker into a one-of-a-kind publicly traded bitcoin holding company. It offers stock investors unparalleled exposure to bitcoin’s price movements, both good and bad.

Led by a crypto-bullish CEO, the company has accumulated a $7.65 billion bitcoin hoard and adopted a “buy the dip” strategy. So far, this move has massively rewarded shareholders in 2023, though not without major risks. With bitcoin poised to potentially become a growing asset class, investors are keeping a close eye on this unique bitcoin proxy play in MicroStrategy stock.

Take a moment to look at Bitcoin Depot and Bit Digital, emerging digital asset companies.

Bristol Myers Squibb $4.1B RayzeBio Buyout

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Pharma giant Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) announced Tuesday that it will acquire clinical-stage biotech RayzeBio for $4.1 billion, continuing Bristol’s strategy of deals to refresh its drug pipeline amid upcoming patent expirations.

RayzeBio is developing a novel targeted radiotherapy called RYZ101 to treat multiple types of cancer. The company’s technology combines tumor-targeting antibodies with radioactive isotope payloads that selectively damage cancer cells’ DNA when delivered.

RYZ101 is currently in Phase 3 testing for treating metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer. Early clinical data showed promising results with the drug demonstrating tumor response rates of 44-55%.

Bristol gains full rights to RYZ101 and RayzeBio’s broader platform for linking radioisotopes to cancer-fighting proteins. The deal gives Bristol a potential new blockbuster cancer treatment as competition intensifies in the immuno-oncology space.

Shoring Up the Cancer Business

Bristol already markets leading cancer immunotherapies Opdivo and Yervoy. However, Opdivo faces patent expiration in 2028/2031, forcing Bristol to find new long-term growth drivers.

The RayzeBio deal comes right after Bristol announced the $13.1 billion acquisition of schizophrenia drug developer Karuna Therapeutics last Friday. Karuna’s lead drug KarXT could generate peak annual sales of over $3 billion, analysts project.

These acquisitions help future-proof Bristol’s business as its top-selling drugs face new competition. Blood thinner Eliquis, which makes up over 30% of Bristol’s revenue, will see biosimilar rivals by 2026. Cancer drug Revlimid, acquired in Bristol’s 2019 buyout of Celgene, faces generics soon too.

“We are focused on strengthening our portfolio through a combination of internal programs and targeted business development,” said Bristol Myers CEO Giovanni Caforio. The RayzeBio and Karuna deals “complement our existing pillars of growth,” he added.

Betting Big on Radio-Pharmaceuticals

In addition to RYZ101’s potential, Bristol gains RayzeBio’s expertise with radio-pharmaceuticals. Attaching radioactive particles to antibodies allows them to precisely pinpoint tumor cells and kill them via DNA damage.

RayzeBio’s technology overcomes past challenges with radio-drugs such as lack of tumor specificity and rapid decay of radioisotopes. Linking radioisotopes to robust antibodies circumvents these issues and improves the drugs’ efficacy.

Analysts see radio-pharmaceuticals as an emerging trend in oncology. Radio-immunotherapies like RayzeBio’s could complement immuno-oncology drugs that activate the immune system against cancer.

By acquiring RayzeBio’s platform, Bristol can expand development of new radio-drug conjugates across its oncology pipeline. Bristol may also look to license out the technology to other companies given the heightened industry interest.

An Expensive Acquisition

Bristol is paying a huge premium to acquire RayzeBio before the biotech can prove RYZ101’s efficacy in late-stage testing. The $4.1 billion price tag works out to $62.50 per share, more than double RayzeBio’s prior closing price.

But Bristol likely wanted to preempt competition for the promising biotech asset. Amgen and Novartis are also developing radio-pharmaceutical drugs for cancer. And RayzeBio would have commanded an even higher valuation had RYZ101 succeeded in Phase 3.

Bristol expects the acquisition will reduce its adjusted earnings by about 13 cents per share in 2024. But Bristol maintained its existing profit guidance for 2022 and 2023, implying confidence the long-term benefits outweigh the near-term costs.

The company plans to finance the purchase using new debt. Bristol’s strong cash flows should allow it to service the additional debt load as it waits for RYZ101 to potentially reach the market around 2025.

Conclusion: Bolstering Its Firepower

The back-to-back deals for Karuna Therapeutics and RayzeBio showcase Bristol Myers Squibb’s strategy to acquire new therapies and drug platforms that can drive growth over the next decade. While expensive, these acquisitions reduce Bristol’s reliance on aging blockbuster drugs facing patent cliffs.

Gaining Karuna’s potential multi-billion dollar schizophrenia medicine and RayzeBio’s cutting-edge radio-pharmaceutical technology gives Bristol valuable new firepower to deploy in the fiercely competitive pharma market. If successful, the deals will ensure Bristol Myers remains an industry leader as it confronts upcoming challenges from biosimilar and generic competition.

Take a moment to take a look at emerging growth biotechnology companies by looking at Noble Capital Markets Senior Research Analyst Robert LeBoyer’s coverage universe.

New Inflation Data Supports Case for Fed Rate Cuts in 2024

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The latest inflation report released on Friday provides further evidence that price pressures are cooling, opening the door for the Federal Reserve to pivot to rate cuts next year.

The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 3.2% in November from a year earlier. That was slightly below economists’ expectations for a 3.3% increase, and down from 3.7% inflation in October.

On a 6-month annualized basis, core inflation slowed to 1.9%, dipping below the Fed’s 2% target for the first time in three years. The moderating price increases back up Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments last week that inflation has likely peaked after months of relentless gains.

Following Powell’s remarks, financial markets boosted bets that the Fed would begin slashing interest rates in early 2024 to boost economic growth. Futures prices now show traders see a more than 70% likelihood of a rate cut by March.

The Fed kicked off its tightening cycle in March, taking its benchmark rate up to a 15-year high of 4.25% – 4.50% from near zero. But Powell signaled last week the central bank could hold rates steady at its next couple meetings as it assesses the impacts of its aggressive hikes.

Still, some Fed officials have pumped the brakes on expectations for imminent policy easing. They noted it is premature to pencil in rate cuts for March when recent inflation data has been mixed.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said markets have “gotten a little bit ahead” of the central bank. And Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted he wants to see services inflation, which remains elevated at 4.1%, also moderate before officials can decide on cuts.

More Evidence Needed

The Fed wants to see a consistent downward trajectory in inflation before it can justify loosening policy. While the latest core PCE print shows prices heading the right direction, policymakers need more proof the disinflationary trend will persist.

Still, the report marked a step forward after inflation surged to its highest levels in 40 years earlier this year on the back of massive government stimulus, supply chain snarls and a red-hot labor market.

The Commerce Department’s downward revision to third quarter core PCE to 2%, right at the Fed’s goal, provided another greenshoot. Personal incomes also grew a healthy 0.4% in November, signaling economic resilience even in the face of tighter monetary policy.

Fed officials will closely monitor upcoming inflation reports, especially core services excluding housing. Categories like healthcare, education and recreation make up 65% of the core PCE index.

Moderation in services inflation is key to convincing the Fed that broader price pressures are easing. Goods disinflation has been apparent for months, helped by improving supply chains.

Path to Rate Cuts

To justify rate cuts, policymakers want to see months of consistently low inflation paired with signs of slowing economic growth. The Fed’s forecasts point to GDP growth braking from 1.7% this year to just 0.5% in 2023.

Unemployment is also projected to rise, taking pressure off wage growth. Leading indicators like housing permits and manufacturing orders suggest the economy is heading for a slowdown.

Once the Fed can be confident inflation will stay around 2% in the medium term, it can then switch to stimulating growth and bringing down unemployment.

Markets are currently betting on the Fed starting to cut rates in March and taking them back down by 1.25 percentage points total next year. But analysts warn against getting too aggressive in rate cut expectations.

“There is mounting evidence that the post-pandemic inflation scare is over and we expect interest rates to be cut significantly next year,” said Capital Economics’ Andrew Hunter.

The potential for financial conditions to tighten again, supply chain problems or an inflation rebound all pose risks to the dovish outlook. And inflation at 3.2% remains too high for the Fed’s comfort.

Fed Chair Powell has warned it could take until 2024 to get inflation back down near officials’ 2% goal. Monetary policy also acts with long lags, meaning rate cuts now may not boost growth until late 2023 or 2024.

With risks still skewed, the Fed will likely take a cautious approach to policy easing. But the latest data gives central bankers confidence their inflation fight is headed in the right direction.

Comstock Inc. (LODE) – Comstock Metals Achieves a Major Milestone

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, December 22, 2023

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Supply contracts secured. Comstock Metals has secured enough end-of-life solar panel supplier commitments to begin commissioning its first demonstration photovoltaic (PV) recycling facility upon receipt of required permits. Comstock Metals is negotiating agreements with major customers for industry-scale supply agreements. Comstock’s technology and renewable solutions provide a better alternative to land fill disposition of these materials. Comstock’s solution ensures safe deconstruction, decontamination, separation, and productive reuse of metals contained in end-of-life photovoltaic materials.

Demonstration PV recycling system. Comstock Metals is readying a demonstration facility that commercializes technologies for efficiently crushing, conditioning, extracting, and recycling metal and mineral concentrates from photovoltaics and other electronic devices. Comstock Metals previously received a storage permit and expects to receive the remaining air quality and solid waste permits shortly and expects to begin receiving, commissioning, and then processing the end-of-life panels in early 2024. Because Comstock Metals will likely receive a tipping fee for handling the end-of-life solar panels, Comstock Metals could begin generating cash flow with revenue recognized once the waste is processed and recycled.

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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Energy Fuels (UUUU) – Uranium production timeline accelerates with uranium price spike

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, December 22, 2023

Energy Fuels is a leading U.S.-based uranium mining company, supplying U3O8 to major nuclear utilities. Energy Fuels also produces vanadium from certain of its projects, as market conditions warrant, and is ramping up commercial-scale production of REE carbonate. Its corporate offices are in Lakewood, Colorado, near Denver, and all its assets and employees are in the United States. Energy Fuels holds three of America’s key uranium production centers: the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the Nichols Ranch in-situ recovery (“ISR”) Project in Wyoming, and the Alta Mesa ISR Project in Texas. The White Mesa Mill is the only conventional uranium mill operating in the U.S. today, has a licensed capacity of over 8 million pounds of U3O8 per year, has the ability to produce vanadium when market conditions warrant, as well as REE carbonate from various uranium-bearing ores. The Nichols Ranch ISR Project is on standby and has a licensed capacity of 2 million pounds of U3O8 per year. The Alta Mesa ISR Project is also on standby and has a licensed capacity of 1.5 million pounds of U3O8 per year. In addition to the above production facilities, Energy Fuels also has one of the largest NI 43-101 compliant uranium resource portfolios in the U.S. and several uranium and uranium/vanadium mining projects on standby and in various stages of permitting and development. The primary trading market for Energy Fuels’ common shares is the NYSE American under the trading symbol “UUUU,” and the Company’s common shares are also listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the trading symbol “EFR.” Energy Fuels’ website is www.energyfuels.com.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Energy Fuels announces that is has commenced production at three mines. During the third-quarter earnings’ discussion six weeks ago, management indicated that it was hiring personnel and upgrading facilities at four mines with plans to restart production at one or two of the mines in 2024. Today’s announcement would appear to be an acceleration of previous plans. Management also indicated previously that it plans to produce 1,000,000 lbs of uranium in 2024 and stockpile the uranium until a mill campaign is completed in late 2024 or early 2025. It is unclear whether these plans have changed in light of today’s announcement.

Uranium prices are surging. Uranium prices were below $40/lb. most of the last ten years causing domestic producers to idle production. Prices started to rise in 2022 reaching a price in the mid seventies just six weeks ago. Since then, uranium prices have soared to a level near $90/lb. It has been our investment premise that cheap uranium from Kazakhstan sold on spot would eventually dry up, and that when that happened, uranium prices would rise quickly. With utilities (and the government) now rushing to shore up supply, the log jam appears to have been broken.

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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The ODP Corporation (ODP) – A Shareholder Letter

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Friday, December 22, 2023

Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies a range of office products and services. It offers merchandise, such as general office supplies, computer supplies, business machines and related supplies, and office furniture through its chain of office supply stores under the Office Depot, Foray, Ativa, Break Escapes, Worklife, and Christopher Lowell brand names. The company also provides graphic design, printing, reproduction, mailing, shipping, and other services through design, print, and ship centers. It has operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Central America. The company also sells its products and services through direct mail catalogs, contract sales force, Internet sites, and retail stores, through a mix of company-owned operations, joint ventures, licensing and franchise agreements, alliances, and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2008, Office Depot operated 1,267 North American retail division office supply stores and 162 international division retail stores, as well as participated under licensing and merchandise arrangements in 98 stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Letter. This week, self described long-term ODP shareholder, AREX Capital Management issued an open letter to the Company’s Board of Directors seeking a relaunch of the Office Deport separation process and the sale of Varis to unlock significant shareholder value.

Value. In AREX’s belief, the market will have a dramatically more favorable view of the remaining ODP business (Business Solutions and Veyer) once the Company no longer operates a primarily brick-and-mortar retailer. In this scenario, using 2024 EBITDA AREX estimates ODP shares could be valued in the $75 range, or nearly 50% above current levels.

Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Bristol Myers Drops $14 Billion to Acquire Karuna Therapeutics, Gaining Schizophrenia Drug

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Pharmaceutical giant Bristol Myers Squibb made a bold move into neuroscience today, announcing the $14 billion acquisition of clinical-stage biotech Karuna Therapeutics. The massive deal provides Bristol Myers with Karuna’s lead drug candidate, KarXT, a potential new treatment for schizophrenia and other psychiatric disorders.

KarXT could be the first drug in its class approved for schizophrenia in decades. The market for schizophrenia drugs is estimated at over $7 billion globally. If approved, KarXT is projected to achieve multi-billion dollar peak sales. Bristol Myers is betting the experimental medicine could transform treatment for millions struggling with serious mental illness.

This acquisition is the latest in a wave of big pharma interest in the emerging neuroscience space. Companies are eager to find new approaches to historically hard-to-treat psychiatric conditions like schizophrenia, depression and Alzheimer’s disease.

Smaller biotechs like Karuna have led the charge, developing novel therapies targeting neurological mechanisms of psychiatric disorders. But larger players like Bristol Myers have taken notice of the promise of these new technologies.

Karuna’s KarXT combines xanomeline, a novel muscarinic receptor agonist, with trospium chloride, an FDA-approved muscarinic receptor antagonist. Early clinical results show this approach reduces side effects and improves efficacy compared to current schizophrenia drugs.

Take a look at other emerging growth biotechnology companies by taking a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Senior Research Analyst Robert Leboyer’s coverage list.

In late-stage clinical trials, KarXT demonstrated statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvements in schizophrenia symptoms. Patients experienced rapid reductions in hallucinations and delusions with far fewer problematic side effects like sedation.

Based on positive Phase 3 data, Karuna submitted a New Drug Application for KarXT in schizophrenia in mid-2022. The FDA accepted the application and set a PDUFA goal date of September 2023 for a potential approval.

Clearly Bristol Myers feels confident about KarXT’s chances, agreeing to pay $28.5 billion upfront in cash to finalize the acquisition. Karuna shareholders will also be eligible for up to $3.5 billion in milestone payments if KarXT reaches certain commercial goals.

For Bristol Myers, the move signals a push into neuroscience and psychiatric disease, an area it has not traditionally emphasized. But the company likely sees major growth potential, given the prevalence of mental illness and the need for better treatments.

Almost 3% of the U.S. population suffers from schizophrenia. Another 17% experience some other mental illness like depression, bipolar disorder or PTSD. Existing drugs fail to adequately manage symptoms for many patients and carry tolerability issues that lead to poor compliance.

Doctors and patients are eagerly awaiting novel therapies like KarXT that balance safety and efficacy. Karuna is also exploring KarXT’s potential in dementia-related psychosis and other indications beyond schizophrenia.

The lucrative deal builds on other recent big-ticket acquisitions for Bristol Myers as the company looks to expand its portfolio. Earlier this year, Bristol Myers acquired cancer biotech Turning Point Therapeutics for $3.2 billion and the oncology company MyoKardia for $13 billion.

But the Karuna purchase represents Bristol Myers’ biggest bet yet on the emerging neuroscience space. It’s the second largest biopharma acquisition announced in 2022 after Pfizer’s $43 billion buyout of cancer drugmaker Seagen.

Other large pharmaceutical companies have also signed deals to access neuropsychiatric drug candidates. AbbVie recently acquired an option to purchase Alector’s experimental Alzheimer’s therapy for up to $2.2 billion. And Eli Lilly collaborated with NextCure on novel immuno-oncology approaches for treating mental illness.

As more novel mechanisms like KarXT arrive, expect growing competition among pharma giants to capture market share. Bristol Myers struck first with today’s monumental acquisition, but likely won’t be the last looking to neuroscience for future growth.

Consumer Confidence Jumps to Five-Month High, Signaling Economic Optimism

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. consumer confidence increased substantially in December to reach its highest level in five months, according to new data from the Conference Board. The confidence index now stands at 110.7, up sharply from 101.0 in November. This surge in optimism indicates consumers have a brighter economic outlook heading into 2024.

The gains in confidence were broad-based, occurring across all age groups and household income levels. In particular, confidence rose sharply among 35-54 year olds as well as those earning $125,000 per year or more. Consumers grew more upbeat about both current conditions and their short-term expectations for business, jobs, and income growth.

The large improvement in consumer spirits is likely the result of several positive economic developments in recent months. Stock markets have rebounded, mortgage rates have retreated from their peaks, and gas prices have declined significantly. Many shoppers also appear to be returning to more normal holiday spending after two years of pandemic-distorted patterns.

Labor Market Resilience Boosts Spending Power

Driving much of this economic optimism is the continued resilience in the labor market. The survey’s measure of jobs plentiful versus hard to get widened substantially in December. This correlates with the 3.7% unemployment rate, which remains near a 50-year low. Robust hiring conditions and rising wages are supporting the consumer spending that makes up 70% of GDP.

With inflationary pressures also showing signs of cooling from 40-year highs, households have more spending power heading into 2023. Consumers indicated plans to increase purchases of vehicles, major appliances, and vacations over the next six months. This points to solid ongoing support for economic growth.

Fed Rate Hikes Could Be Nearing an End

Another factor buoying consumer sentiment is growing expectations that the Fed may pause its rapid interest rate hikes soon. After a cumulative 4.25 percentage points of tightening already delivered, markets are betting on a peak rate below 5% in early 2024.

This prospect of nearing an end to historically-aggressive Fed policy has sparked a powerful rally in rate-sensitive assets like bonds and stocks while boosting housing affordability. With inflation expectations among consumers also falling to the lowest since October 2020, pressure on the central bank to maintain its torrid tightening pace is declining.

Housing Market Poised for Rebound

One key area that could see a revival from lower rates is the housing sector. Existing home sales managed to eke out a small 0.8% gain in November following five straight months of declines. While higher mortgage rates earlier this year crushed housing affordability, the recent rate relief triggered a jump in homebuyer demand.

More consumers reported plans to purchase a home over the next six months than any time since August. However, extremely tight inventory continues hampering sales. There were just 1.13 million homes for sale last month, 60% below pre-pandemic levels. This lack of supply will likely drive further home price appreciation into 2024.

The median existing-home price rose 4% from last year to $387,600 in November. But lower mortgage rates could bring more sellers and buyers to the market. Citigroup economists project stronger price growth next spring and summer as rates have room to decrease further. This would provide a boost to household wealth and consumer spending power.

Economic Growth Appears Solid Entering 2024

Overall, with consumers opening their wallets and the job market thriving, most economists expect the US to avoid a downturn next year. The sharp rise in confidence, spending intentions, and housing market activity all point to continued economic growth in early 2024.

Inflation and Fed policy remain wildcards. But the latest data indicates the price surge has passed its peak. If this trend continues alongside avoiding a spike in unemployment, consumers look primed to keep leading GDP forward. Their renewed optimism signals economic momentum instead of approaching recession as 2024 gets underway.

Oil Prices Drop on Angola OPEC Exit, US Production Increases Amid Red Sea Worries

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Oil prices fell over $1 a barrel on Thursday after Angola announced its departure from OPEC, while record US crude output and persistent worries over Red Sea shipping added further pressure.

Brent crude futures dropped $1.30 to $78.40 a barrel in afternoon trading, bringing losses to nearly 2% this week. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also slid $1.19 to $73.03 per barrel.

The declines came after Angola’s oil minister said the country will be leaving OPEC in 2024, saying its membership no longer serves national interests. While Angola’s production of 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) is minor on a global scale, the move raises uncertainty about the unity and future cohesion of the OPEC+ alliance.

At the same time, surging US oil output continues to weigh on prices. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed US production hitting a fresh peak of 13.3 million bpd last week, up from 13.2 million bpd.

The attacks on oil tankers transiting the narrow Bab el-Mandeb strait at the mouth of the Red Sea have forced shipping companies to avoid the area. This is lengthening voyage times and increasing freight rates, adding to oil supply concerns.

So far the disruption has been minimal, as most Middle East crude exports flow through the Strait of Hormuz. But the risks of broader supply chain headaches are mounting.

Balancing Act for Oil Prices

Oil prices have stabilized near $80 per barrel after a volatile year, as slowing economic growth and China’s COVID-19 battles dim demand, while the OPEC+ alliance constrains output.

The expected global demand rise of 1.9 million bpd in 2023 is relatively sluggish. And while the OPEC+ coalition agreed to cut production targets by 2 million bpd from November through 2023, actual output reductions are projected around just 1 million bpd as several countries struggle to pump at quota levels.

As a result, much depends on US producers. EIA predicts America will deliver nearly all new global supply growth next year, churning out an extra 850,000 bpd versus 2022.

With the US now rivaling Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s largest oil producer, its drilling rates are pivotal for prices. The problem for OPEC+ is that high prices over $90 per barrel incentivize large gains in US shale output.

Most analysts see Brent prices staying close to $80 per barrel in 2024, though risks are plentiful. A global recession could crater demand, while a resolution on Iranian nuclear talks could unlock over 1 million bpd in sanctions-blocked supply.

The Russia-Ukraine war also continues clouding the market, especially with the EU’s looming ban on Russian seaborne crude imports.

Take a moment to take a look at some emerging growth energy companies by looking at Noble Capital Markets’ Senior Research Analyst Michael Heim’s coverage list.

Impact of Angola’s OPEC Exit

In announcing its departure, Angola complained that OPEC+ was unfairly reducing its production quota for 2024 despite years of over-compliance and output declines.

The country’s oil production has dropped from close to 1.9 million bpd in 2008 to just over 1 million bpd this year. A lack of investment in exploration and development has sapped its oil fields.

The OPEC+ cuts seem to have been the final straw, with Angola saying it needs to focus on national energy strategy rather than coordinating policy within the 13-member cartel.

The move makes Angola the first member to leave OPEC since Qatar exited in 2019. While it holds little sway over global prices, it does spark questions over the unity and future cohesion of OPEC+, especially if other African members follow suit.

Most analysts, however, believe the cartel will hold together as key Gulf members and Russia continue dominating policy. OPEC+ still controls over 40% of global output, giving it unrivaled influence over prices through its supply quotas.

But UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo points out that “prices still fell on concern of the unity of OPEC+ as a group.” If more unrest and exits occur, it could chip away at the alliance’s price control power.

For now OPEC+ remains focused on its landmark deal with Russia and supporting prices through 2024. Yet US producers are the real wild card, with their response to higher prices determining whether OPEC+ can balance the market or will lose more market share in years ahead.

Release – Ocugen Gains FDA Alignment on Key Aspects of OCU400—Modifier Gene Therapy—Pivotal Phase 3 Study Design

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Research News and Market Data on OCGN

December 21, 2023

MALVERN, Pa., Dec. 21, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Ocugen, Inc. (Ocugen or the Company) (NASDAQ: OCGN), a biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel gene and cell therapies and vaccines, today announced that the Company received alignment from FDA on key aspects of the Phase 3 clinical trial design to assess the safety and efficacy of OCU400 in patients with RHO and other gene mutations associated with Retinitis Pigmentosa (RP).

“This news brings us even closer to fulfilling our mission to bring our first-in-class, gene-agnostic therapies to market and provide access to patients globally,” said Dr. Shankar Musunuri, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, and Co-Founder of Ocugen. “We look forward to beginning the Phase 3 clinical trial, which we plan to initiate in early 2024.”

During a multidisciplinary meeting with FDA, based on preliminary results from an ongoing Phase 1/2 study, Ocugen received alignment on key aspects of the Phase 3 study design—including the study endpoint, patient enrollment strategy, and study duration of one year. The Phase 3 clinical trial will enroll a broader group of RP patients, including patients with the most common RHO gene mutation, based on OCU400’s potentially gene-agnostic mechanism of action.

With orphan drug and RMAT designations in place for OCU400, FDA’s alignment on key aspects of the Phase 3 study design positions Ocugen to confidently move forward in pursuing product development and licensure for OCU400.

Currently there are approximately 110,000 patients in the United States with RP and 1.6 million patients globally. Of these patients, more than 10% have the RHO genetic mutation. Advancing OCU400 to Phase 3 clinical development will be an important step toward addressing unmet needs in the RP patient community.

About Ocugen, Inc.
Ocugen, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel gene and cell therapies and vaccines that improve health and offer hope for patients across the globe. We are making an impact on patient’s lives through courageous innovation—forging new scientific paths that harness our unique intellectual and human capital. Our breakthrough modifier gene therapy platform has the potential to treat multiple retinal diseases with a single product, and we are advancing research in infectious diseases to support public health and orthopedic diseases to address unmet medical needs. Discover more at www.ocugen.com and follow us on X and LinkedIn.

Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including, but not limited to, statements regarding qualitative assessments of available data, potential therapeutic and clinical benefits of our product candidates, expectations for clinical trial timing and results, anticipated timing of clinical trial updates and expectations for timing and outcome of regulatory interactions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. We may, in some cases, use terms such as “predicts,” “believes,” “potential,” “proposed,” “continue,” “estimates,” “anticipates,” “expects,” “plans,” “intends,” “may,” “could,” “might,” “will,” “should,” or other words that convey uncertainty of future events or outcomes to identify these forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to numerous important factors, risks, and uncertainties that may cause actual events or results to differ materially from our current expectations, including, but not limited to, the risks that preliminary, interim and top-line clinical trial results may not be indicative of, and may differ from, final clinical data; that unfavorable new clinical trial data may emerge in ongoing clinical trials or through further analyses of existing clinical trial data; that earlier non-clinical and clinical data and testing of may not be predictive of the results or success of later clinical trials; that that clinical trial data are subject to differing interpretations and assessments, including by regulatory authorities; that receipt of orphan drug and RMAT designations may not lead to faster development or regulatory review; and that regulatory authorities may disagree with additional aspects of our clinical trial designs or may not approve our future IND applications on the anticipated timeline or at all. These and other risks and uncertainties are more fully described in our periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including the risk factors described in the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the quarterly and annual reports that we file with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements that we make in this press release speak only as of the date of this press release. Except as required by law, we assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements contained in this press release whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, after the date of this press release.

Contact:
Tiffany Hamilton
Head of Communications
IR@ocugen.com

Bit Digital (BTBT) – Receipt of First Tranche of AI Servers

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, December 21, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

First Tranche. Yesterday, Bit Digital announced the receipt of the initial batch of servers equipped with Nvidia HGX H100 GPUs from Super Micro Computer, Inc. To date, the Company has received 89 servers which will be shipped and delivered to the datacenter in Iceland by the end of this month, enabling Bit Digital to begin performance under its first AI contract. Bit Digital expects to receive the remaining 103 servers by the first week of January 2024 and subsequently deploy them in Iceland during January 2024.

Upfront Cash. Bit Digital also disclosed that the terms of its AI agreement have been amended such that the Company has now received a three-month prepayment from its customer. With the contract expected to generate some $35 million of annual revenue, this would equate to approximately $9 million, which will help fund the cost of the servers, in our opinion.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Opportunity Knocks

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, December 21, 2023

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Presentation at NobleCon19. During Noble’s recent investor conference, Mr. Cary Marshall, Senior Vice President and CFO, provided a corporate overview and participated in an economic perspectives panel moderated by Emmy award winning reporter Michael Williams. Mr. Marshall highlighted how Alliance is well positioned to benefit from the electrification of the U.S. economy. He noted that while U.S. total electricity generation grew by 0.5 trillion kilowatt hours during the period 2000 to 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts total generation growth of 1.3 trillion kilowatt hours between 2023 to 2050. Growth in electric vehicles, onshoring of U.S. manufacturing, data center growth, and use of computer applications are expected to provide a boost in demand for electricity.

A forward-thinking diversified energy company. While Alliance’s coal business generates the largest share of the partnership’s revenue and EBITDA, investors may underappreciate the fact that ARLP is evolving into a more diversified company. Since 2014, the company has invested a total of $705 million to grow its oil & gas royalty business and has also invested in businesses that position it to evolve with the needs of the market, including Infinitum (electric motor technology), Ascend Elements (battery metals recycling), and Matrix Design Group, a wholly owned subsidiary that provides mining and industrial technology solutions.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Entravision Communications (EVC) – Highlights From Noblecon19; Improving Margins Expected in 2024

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, December 21, 2023

Entravision Communications Corporation is a diversified Spanish-language media company utilizing a combination of television and radio operations to reach Hispanic consumers across the United States, as well as the border markets of Mexico. Entravision owns and/or operates 53 primary television stations and is the largest affiliate group of both the top-ranked Univision television network and Univision’s TeleFutura network, with television stations in 20 of the nation’s top 50 Hispanic markets. The Company also operates one of the nation’s largest groups of primarily Spanish-language radio stations, consisting of 48 owned and operated radio stations.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noblecon19. On December 4th, management presented at Noblecon19 at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida, to the investment community. The presentation conducted by Chris Young, Chief Financial Officer, highlighted the company’s digital growth initiatives, its strong and improving balance sheet and favorable industry undercurrents. A replay of the presentation can be viewed here: https://www.channelchek.com/videos/entravision-communications-noblecon19-replay. 

Digital growth. On a trailing twelve-month basis from Q3, digital revenue comprised 82% of total revenue, and its operations spanned 40 countries. From 2019 to 2022, total company revenue grew at a 52% CAGR, a result of its fast growing digital businesses. Notably, the company is focused on improving digital margins after Facebook reduced commissions from 10% to 7%.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.