Investors Watching for a “Santa Rally” the Last Trading Week of 2022
Stocks in the US closed higher Friday after consumer inflation continued to ease modestly, and consumer expectations are for the trend to continue. This could set the stage for the week ahead as some expect the probability of a “Santa rally” as investors may begin using their dry powder to wave in some stocks that have gone down with the crowd but are historically cheap and showing value.
Stock markets in London, Toronto, Sydney, Hong Kong, and Johannesburg are closed. on Tuesday, December 27, since Boxing Day was already a holiday since Christmas fell on a Sunday.
The four-day trading week ahead includes the latest data on home prices with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index and Freddie Mac’s House Price Index (October). On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will issue pending home sales figures (November). The strength of the manufacturing sector on Friday, with the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December, has market-moving potential on the last trading day of the year.
Monday 12/26
Markets and Government Offices closed.
Tuesday 12/27
Stock markets in London, Toronto, Sydney, Hong Kong, and Johannesburg are closed.
8:30 AM ET, The US Goods Deficit (Census basis) is expected to narrow to $97.0 billion in November after deepening by more than $6 billion in October to $98.8 billion.
8:30 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories, where buildups have been lessening, are expected to rise 0.4 percent in the advance report for November.
9:00 AM ET, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, forecasters see the adjusted 20-city monthly rate falling 1.2 percent again in October after a decline of 1.2 percent in September for an unadjusted annual rate of 8.1 percent versus September’s 10.4 percent.
Wednesday 12/28
10:AM ET, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, the manufacturing composite is expected at minus 6, in December vs. minus 9 in November and minus 10 in October.
Thursday 12/29
8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the December 29 week are expected to come in at 222,000 versus 216,000 in the prior week.
Friday 12/30
• 9:45 AM ET, The Chicago PMI is expected to bounce back in December to 41.0 versus November’s much weaker-than-expected 37.2.
The Bond markets are scheduled to close at 2 PM. Stocks have the benefit of a full trading day to close out 2022.
What Else
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Happy New Year from the entire content team at Channelchek!
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose 9.1% from June 2021 to June 2022, the highest rate since 1981. That figure is an average of price increases for bananas, electricity, haircuts, and more than 200 other categories of goods and services. But households in different age groups spend money differently, so inflation rates vary by age, too. The diagrams below show average spending for households at different ages, in the categories that make up the inflation index.
Young households spend more of their budgets on gasoline, where prices rose 60% in the last year. Gasoline has been the largest single-category driver of inflation since March 2021, accounting for nearly 25% of inflation by itself. Gas has had an outsized impact considering that the category is 4.8% of Consumer Price Index spending. (Gasoline prices began falling in mid-June.)
Taking an average of all categories, as the inflation index does, shows that inflation is currently highest for younger households. It is about 2 percentage points higher for households headed by 21-year-olds as it is for octogenarians who live at home. That has not been true for most of the last 40 years. Inflation rates calculated in this way were higher for older households as recently as early 2021, when medical care costs were rising faster than gasoline prices.
These estimates are imperfect. The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes in its estimate of inflation for elderly households that different age groups may buy different items within each category or buy them from different types of stores. They may also live in locations with costs of living so dissimilar that national changes in prices are not relevant. Over the past 12 months, inflation was 6.7% in the New York City metropolitan area and 12.3 in the Phoenix metropolitan area, due in part to different housing markets.
The above was adapted from USAFacts and is the intellectual property of USAFacts protected by copyrights and similar rights. USAFacts grants a license to use this Original Content under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 (or higher) International Public License (the “CC BY-SA 4.0 License”).
Delivery speeds of goods worldwide have improved, impacting everything from shipping and freight to retail stores – and it should help provide a lower inflationary balance between demand and supply. Demand is waning, and supply speeds are normalizing. Months-long back-ups of ships are now gone, with shipping rates close to pre-pandemic levels, the post-pandemic era now has to adjust again.
Supply Chain Pressure
A government measure compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consisting of transportation and manufacturing pressures, called the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Pressure (GSCPI), shows significant easing during 2022.
Global supply chain pressures are well off the high reached last December, although they have just modestly ticked up. The largest contributor to this slight reversal is the increase in supply chain pressures from Chinese delivery times, though improvements were shown in U.S. delivery times and Taiwanese purchases. The GSCPI’s recent movements suggest that developments in Asia are slowing down the return of the index back to historical levels.
Shipping Impact
Goods are moving through the largest U.S. port complex faster than at any time since cargo was backed up for weeks at the Los Angeles-Long Beach docks during the pandemic. The average dwell time for containers is just 2.8 days, according to the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association. Meanwhile, U.S. container imports reached their lowest level in November since the early months of 2020.
The improvements and reduced demand have impacted ocean shipping rates. The daily spot rate to move a shipping container from Asia to the U.S. West coast is near $1,400, down from about $7,500 in July and roughly $15,000 a year ago, according to the Freightos Baltic Index. This current cost represents a slight discount over pre-pandemic rates.
Freight Impact
Maersk is a large logistics company that is involved in many aspects of shipping and tracking. Vincent Vlerc will take over as CEO on January 1. Mr. Clerc said, “You can’t deploy more capacity than what our customers need.” He explained, “we are going through a significant inventory correction in the U.S. and Europe, and we made significant capacity adjustments to our capacity in and out of Asia.” Maersk has indicated it is transporting 30% fewer containers across the Pacific since last year.
The current chief executive of Maersk, Soren Skou said, “it’s obvious that freight rates peaked and began to normalize, driven by falling demand and an easing supply-chain congestion.” In November, the shipping company lowered its 2023 forecast for container demand. It now expects a decline from 2% to 4%, from a maximum decline of 1% previously.
Rail Transportation
The major railroads, in addition to having averted a strike, have managed to hire more train and engine crew members during the second half of 2022. Recruiting had been challenging earlier. They reopened some hump yards and took out locomotives from storage to help ease some bottlenecks.
These changes helped to improve rail service from a low in the Spring when dwell time and train speeds were historically low. “We have turned the corner on service,” Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw said during the company’s investor day in early December.
The railroads say they intend to draw more cargo currently on trucks back to rail, as rail service improves.
Parcel Delivery
FedEx and other regional carriers are having an easier time delivering packages. On Tuesday, FedEx reported average daily parcel volumes fell 10.2%, declining for the fourth straight quarter. There is a trend where shoppers are venturing back out; this has reduced online shopping.
There is now a surplus of capacity to deliver packages. In 2020 and 2021, their ability to deliver fell short of daily capacity.
Before the holiday season, parcel carriers noted consumers had reduced online orders. People seemingly have other pent-up demands to meet. They have resumed spending on travel, parties, and entertainment. Also, in-person shopping has increased post-pandemic.
Impact on Retail
After more than a year of paying higher and higher prices for shipped goods, Walmart and other retailers can resist price increases. In fact, they may even be successful negotiating discounts. With significant inventory and, in some cases, excess inventory, retailers have more bargaining power with shippers and suppliers. Dollar General Corp., after years of blaming high transportation costs as a drag on the business, said in December that falling transit prices could begin lifting the company in 2023.
Take Away
A new balance is being found in the shipping and delivery of goods. Where there was once more demand than supply, a more normal balance is surfacing. This balance is a relief to both sellers and buyers as products become available. Even more, it is likely to help bring inflation down. Also working to help this balance is higher interest rates that are intended to slow demand while supply-side channels catch up. The balance is much closer than it was when the Fed began tightening, this helps bring the costs of goods down, and as an added gift to those most hurt by inflation, it also has helped ease tight labor markets.
TAAL Distributed Information Technologies Inc. delivers value-added blockchain services, providing professional-grade, highly scalable blockchain infrastructure and transactional platforms to support businesses building solutions and applications upon the BitcoinSV platform, and developing, operating, and managing distributed computing systems for enterprise users.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Terminating Research Coverage. As expected, TAAL announced the completion of the previously announced plan to take the Company private. Calvin Ayre has acquired all of the remaining TAALF common shares and now owns 100%. The transaction was approved by the Ontario Superior Court of Justice on December 21st. TAALF common shares will be de-listed from the Canadian Securities Exchange no later than the close of business on December 23, 2022. As a result, we are terminating research coverage of TAAL Distributed Information Technologies. Effective upon termination of coverage, investors should no longer rely on any of our prior research, financial estimates, or ratings for the Company.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Private placement closed.Aurania closed the second and final tranche of its private placement of 4,244,598 units of the company for gross proceeds of approximately C$1.9 million. A total of 2,417,166 and 1,827,432 units were sold in the first and final tranches, respectively. In each case, units were priced at C$0.45 per unit and were comprised of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.75 per warrant share for up to 24 months following the date of issuance. Net proceeds will be used to fund drilling and exploration activities at the Lost Cities project, along with working capital needs.
Drilling continues at Tatasham. Drilling began at the Tatasham porphyry copper target in late November. Except for a brief holiday break, drilling is expected to continue through January 2023. The company expects to drill three or four holes at Tatasham to test areas identified during the company’s Anaconda mapping program. Following Tatasham, the company anticipates drilling at the Awacha porphyry copper target.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Nuclear Fusion’s Potential to Be a Highly Disruptive Breakthrough with Investment Opportunities
Scientists at the Energy Department’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in California announced the first-ever demonstration of fusion “ignition.” This means that more energy was generated from fusion than was needed to operate the high-powered lasers that triggered the reaction. More than 2 megajoules (MJ) of laser light were directed onto a tiny gold-plated capsule, resulting in the production of a little over 3 MJ of energy, the equivalent of three sticks of dynamite.
This important milestone is the culmination of decades’ worth of research and lots of trial and error, and it makes good on the hope that humanity will one day enjoy 100% clean and plentiful energy.
This article was republished with permission from Frank Talk, a CEO Blog by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors (GROW). Find more of Frank’s articles here – Originally published December 19, 2022.
Unlike conventional nuclear fission, which produces highly radioactive waste and carries the risk of nuclear proliferation, nuclear fusion has no emissions or risk of cataclysmic disaster. That should please activists who support renewable, non-carbon-emitting energy sources such as wind and solar and yet oppose nuclear power.
75th Anniversary of Another Great American Invention, The Transistor
I think it’s only fitting that this breakthrough occurred not just in the U.S., the most innovative country on earth, but also on the 75th anniversary of the invention of the transistor.
Like fusion energy, the transistor’s importance can’t be overstated. Invented in December 1947 in New Jersey’s storied Bell Labs—also the birthplace of the photovoltaic cell, fiber optic cable, communications satellite, UNIX operating system and C programming language—the transistor made the 20th century possible. Everything we use and enjoy today, from our iPhones to our Teslas, wouldn’t exist without the seminal American invention.
In 2021, the electric vehicle maker unveiled its proprietary application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) for artificial intelligence (AI) training. The ASIC chip, believe it or not, boasts an unbelievable 50 billion transistors.
Private Investment in Fusion Technology Has Been Increasing
Getting your electricity from a commercial fusion reactor is still years if not decades away, but that hasn’t stopped money from flowing into the sector. This year, private investment is estimated to top $1 billion, following the record $2.6 billion that went into fusion research in 2021, according to BloombergNEF.
Private Sector Investment in Nuclear Fusion May Top $1 Billion in 2022
At the moment, there aren’t any publicly traded fusion companies. However, Bloomberg has a Global Nuclear Theme Peers index that tracks listed companies with exposure to the industry, estimated by Bloomberg to one day achieve a jaw-dropping $40 trillion valuation. Some of the more recognizable names include Rolls-Royce, Toshiba, Hitachi and General Electric.
For the five-year period, the index of 64 “nuclear” stocks has advanced approximately 100%, compared to the MSCI World Index, up 38% over the same period.
The number of private firms involved in R&D continues to grow, raising the possibility that some will tap public markets in the coming years.
Among the largest is Commonwealth Fusion Systems, or CFS, which spun out of MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center in 2018. The company raised $1.8 billion in December 2021, on top of the $250 million it had raised previously. Its investors include Bill Gates and Google, along with oil companies, venture capital firms and sovereign wealth funds. CFS claims to have the fastest, lowest cost solution to commercial fusion energy and is in the process of building a prototype that is set to demonstrate net energy gain by 2025.
Another major player is TAE Technologies. Located in California, the company has raised a total of $1.2 billion as of December 2022, from investors such as the late Paul Allen, Goldman Sachs, Google and the family office of Charles Schwab. TAE says it is developing a fusion reactor, scheduled to be unveiled in the early 2030s, that will generate electricity from a proton-boron reaction at an incredible temperature of 1 billion degrees.
Other contenders in the field include Washington State-based Helion Energy, Canada’s General Fusion and the United Kingdom’s Tokamak Energy. In February 2022, Tokamak broke a longstanding record by generating 59 MJ of energy, the highest sustained energy pulse ever.
As an investor, I would keep an eye on this space!
Solar Accounted For 45% Of All New Energy Capacity Growth In The U.S.
In the meantime, energy investors with an eye on the future still have renewable energy stocks to consider.
2022 has been a challenging year for the industry, with much of it facing supply constraints. According to Wood Mackenzie, total new solar installations in the U.S. were 18.6 gigawatts (GW), a 23% decrease from 2021.
Even so, solar accounted for 45% of all new electricity-generation capacity added this year through the end of the third quarter. That’s greater than any other energy source. Wind was in second place, representing a quarter of all new energy power, followed by natural gas at 21% and coal at 10%, its best year since 2013.
WoodMac expresses optimism in the next two years. Solar projects that were delayed this year due to supply issues may finally come online in 2023, and by 2024, the real effects of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) should be felt. The U.K.-based research firm forecasts 21% average annual growth from 2023 through 2027, so now may be an opportune time to start participating.
One of our favorite plays right now is Canadian Solar, up more than 11% for the year. On Thursday of this week, the Ontario-based company announced that it would begin mass-producing high efficiency solar modules in the first quarter of 2023. Canadian Solar shares were up more than 1% last week, despite experiencing two down days on this week’s news of continued rate hikes into 2023.
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All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.
The BI Global Nuclear Theme Peers is an index not for use as a financial benchmark that tracks 64 companies exposed to nuclear energy research and production. The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index which includes developed world markets and does not include emerging markets.
Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (09/30/22): Tesla Inc., Canadian Solar Inc.
BRENTWOOD, Tenn., Dec. 22, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE: CXW) (CoreCivic or the Company) announced today that it is delivering an irrevocable notice to the holders of all of the Company’s previously issued $350,000,000 original aggregate principal amount of 4.625% Senior Notes due 2023 (2023 Notes) that the Company has elected to redeem in full the 2023 Notes that remain outstanding on February 1, 2023 (Redemption Date). The 2023 Notes were otherwise scheduled to mature on May 1, 2023. The 2023 Notes will be redeemed at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the then outstanding 2023 Notes, plus accrued and unpaid interest on such 2023 Notes to, but not including, the Redemption Date (Redemption Price). As of December 21, 2022, the principal amount of the outstanding 2023 Notes was $153.9 million. The Company intends to use a combination of cash on hand and available capacity under its revolving credit facility to fund the Redemption Price.
Redemption of the 2023 Notes is consistent with the Company’s multi-year debt reduction strategy. Following the redemption, the Company will have no debt maturing until April 2026.
This press release shall not constitute a notice of redemption of the 2023 Notes.
About CoreCivic
CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. CoreCivic provides a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. CoreCivic is the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believes it is the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. CoreCivic has been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. CoreCivic’s employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements (as defined within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995), including statements regarding CoreCivic’s redemption of the 2023 Notes and its funding of the Redemption Price. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the filings made from time to time by CoreCivic with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and include the risk factors described in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2021, the Company’s Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and other reports filed with the SEC.
CoreCivic takes no responsibility for updating the information contained in this press release following the date hereof to reflect events or circumstances occurring after the date hereof or the occurrence of unanticipated events or for any changes or modifications made to this press release or the information contained herein by any third-parties, including, but not limited to, any wire or internet services.
With more than 60 units, RCI Hospitality Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, is the country’s leading company in adult nightclubs and sports bars/restaurants. Clubs in New York City, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Miami, Minneapolis, Denver, St. Louis, Charlotte, Pittsburgh, Raleigh, Louisville, and other markets operate under brand names such as Rick’s Cabaret, XTC, Club Onyx, Vivid Cabaret, Jaguars Club, Tootsie’s Cabaret, Scarlett’s Cabaret, Diamond Cabaret, and PT’s Showclub. Sports bars/restaurants operate under the brand name Bombshells Restaurant & Bar.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4Q22 Operating Results. RCI recorded revenue of $71.4 million for 4Q22, up 29.9% y-o-y. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $24.2 million, up 37.8% y-o-y and net income rose 361.4% to $10.6 million. EPS was $1.15 and adjusted EPS was $1.45, down 8.2% y-o-y due to a much higher tax rate this year. We had forecast revenue of $68.5 million, adjusted EBITDA of $21 million, and EPS of $1.27.
Segments. Acquisitions drove Nightclubs top line up 40.4% to $56.6 million in the quarter, SSS were up 3.2%. Non-GAAP operating margin was 41.6%, driven by a 53.6% increase in high margin service revenue. Bombshells revenues of $14 million were down slightly from $14.4 million a year ago, SSS were off 13.3%. Operating margin was 18%, ex one time start up costs for the San Antonio location.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
The E.W. Scripps Company (NASDAQ: SSP) is a diversified media company focused on creating a better-informed world. As one of the nation’s largest local TV broadcasters, Scripps serves communities with quality, objective local journalism and operates a portfolio of 61 stations in 41 markets. The Scripps Networks reach nearly every American through the national news outlets Court TV and Newsy and popular entertainment brands ION, Bounce, Defy TV, Grit, ION Mystery, Laff and TrueReal. Scripps is the nation’s largest holder of broadcast spectrum. Scripps runs an award-winning investigative reporting newsroom in Washington, D.C., and is the longtime steward of the Scripps National Spelling Bee. Founded in 1878, Scripps has held for decades to the motto, “Give light and the people will find their own way.”
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Launches new sports division. Management believes that sports broadcasting is the most valuable asset in the linear TV market and will be implementing a two prong approach for its national and local strategy. The company believes it can provide a unique value proposition for both a local/regional and a national strategy.
Serves a growing viewership gap. Due to cable cord cutting, the Regional Sports Networks have seen a significant decline in viewership. In many cities, 40% to 50% of the households are not watching cable or satellite. The company’s local strategy will focus on markets where it currently operates two or more stations, furthering its reach in those markets. Management highlighted Phoenix and Detroit as two markets it would be interested in for local sports rights.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Cathie Wood isn’t the only one favoring Tesla (TSLA) at recent valuations. Retail accounts have just made it their favorite stock in 2022 as transactions outpace the old favorite, Apple (AAPL). Money from retail trading accounts flowing into the company founded by Elon Musk increased by 424% to $15.41 billion, versus $2.94 billion in 2021. To be fair, the iPhone maker isn’t too far behind, as retail made $15.21 billion in cumulative purchases during the same period.
Vanda is a global independent research company that provides tactical macro and strategic investment analysis to institutional investors. In the firm’s, last research note of 2022, Marco Iachini, senior vice president of research at Vanda, shed some light and data on retail’s current favorite as institutional traders are placing more and more importance on money flows from self-directed investors.
Tesla’s share price has been moving lower in recent weeks as investors and analysts have been critical of the steps the billionaire has taken at his social media company, including the level of focus he has given to his new acquisition. They also show concern of the interrelationship between Musk’s wealth, Twitter’s financial needs, and any tie-in with how Tesla may trade.
Tesla shares are headed for a 60% decline in 2022, which is the worst sell-off since its 2010 public offering. Tesla’s year-to-date loss outpaces the S&P 500’s decline of 18% and the Nasdaq 100’s drop of 31%. The old favorite, Apple stock, has given up 23% during the year.
On a wider scale, investors in Tesla, Apple, and other large-cap tech companies have been slammed this year after two years of above-average returns. Vanda underscored Tesla’s popularity, saying the stock makes up about 11% of the average retail portfolio.
On the Robinhood platform, Tesla is the ninth most popular stock of the year, with Microsoft filling the top position.
Many institutional investors have, over the years, used retail interest as a sign of what to stay away from or even short. “Given its growing importance, we view retail activity around it as a crucial signpost for what may be an eventual full-fledged capitulation in 2023,” said Iachini, who wrote the research note. This flies in the face of institutional chief investment officer and founder of ARK Invest Cathie Wood, who has purchased slightly more than 445,000 shares of the EV manufacturer since October. Over the previous year and a half, Wood has been a net seller of Tesla.
Caroline Ellison Now Enters a New Stage of Her Young Life
Caroline Ellison, the 28-year-old former CEO of Alameda Research, pleaded guilty to seven criminal charges, including wire fraud and conspiracy to commit securities fraud, according to her plea agreement, signed Monday. Caroline, the former chief executive of Alameda Research, a trading firm with close ties to FTX, is said to face up to 115 years in prison. Her admitted role in allowing customer funds to flow through an electronic “backdoor” to be used by Sam Bankman Fried (SBF) of FTX tells us a little bit about her recent past, but who is Ms. Ellison, and how did she get to be CEO of Alameda?
What is Alameda Research?
SBF’s portfolio of crypto companies started with his founding of Alameda research in 2017. Alameda Research was, until very recently, a cryptocurrency trading firm known to specialize in quantitative research and providing liquidity to cryptocurrency and digital assets markets.
Ellison joined the Alameda team as a trader in 2018 and became its co-CEO in 2021.
Bankman-Fried had started Alameda Research as a high-risk, high-reward crypto trading firm using high-risk tactics. He has admitted he included “research” in the name to give it a better vibe. In an NPR podcast in 2017, he was shown to be aggressively taking advantage of the “wild west” crypto playing field. SBF grew his crypto-related business into more complex cryptocurrency trading, accessible to the masses, with his founding of FTX, a crypto exchange, in 2019. He did this by leveraging his image as highly experienced in crypto, which helped him to raise money from firms like BlackRock.
Who Is Caroline Ellison?
In a now-removed YouTube video and podcast, Caroline discussed her background and upbringing in an FTX public relations-type interview dated July 2020.
The 28-year-old Ellison grew up outside of Boston in a town called Newton. Her parents are professors, Glenn Ellison, her father, is a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and Sara Fischer Ellison lectures at the prestigious school.
Ellison said in the podcast that she inherited a natural aptitude for math and entered math competitions at a young age. She further would demonstrate that she was some kind of prodigy by telling people that by age five, she read a Harry Potter book by herself. “I refused to wait for my parents to read it [to me],” she said.
She went on to major in math at Stanford. After applying for trading internships, a field that is very competitive for new graduates, she landed at Jane Street Capital, a well-respected firm on Wall Street. After her internship, she worked there for a year and a half.
Is Caroline Elliman or was Caroline Elliman Sam Bankman Fried’s girlfriend? There are sources that say that Ellison met Bankman-Fried at Jane Street. He worked there from June 2014 to September 2017, according to his LinkedIn, which is still live and has 28,250 followers.
Ellison said she learned about Alameda over coffee with then-CEO Bankman-Fried while visiting the Bay Area and decided “it seemed like too cool of an opportunity to pass up.” She joined the company in 2018.
Bankman-Fried would then resign as CEO of Alameda but retained his role as CEO of FTX. In October 2021, Ellison became co-CEO with Sam Trabucco, a former trader at Susquehanna International Group.
Trabucco resigned in August 2022 to “spend a lot of time traveling,” according to one of his tweets, saying he “bought a boat.”
Was There Romance Between Ellison and SBF?
When a book about this is written, and the movie is out, it will include sex.
There have been rumors of polyamory. This is a relationship behavior that involves connections with more than one person. According to a Coindesk article from November, among the FTX executives, in the Bahamas, “All 10 are, or used to be, paired up in romantic relationships with each other.” There have also been suggestions that FTX employees and Bankman-Fried spent lavishly on the island, from yachts to thousands of dollars a day on catering.
Take Away
Financial fraud comes in many forms. Often it starts out innocently when a bad trade happens, someone tries to cover it up, and the markets don’t cooperate to bail out the bad trade, then more illegal actions are taken to cover that up. There have also been situations where unqualified, not experienced persons are in charge and either unaware of the magnitude of their deceptive actions or are following orders, perhaps just going along because others are doing it too. Then there are those that enjoy the attention they get by being out front and sharing wealth and buying fame. Another more common deceit is someone who is just plain old greedy. All are criminal.
I am not sure what the driver was in the Alameda/FTX, SBF Caroline Ellison (and others) case, but I am sure we will hear much more about this. As we do, remember the importance of trusting those you conduct business with and questioning them anyway.
HOUSTON, Dec. 21, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Direct Digital Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: DRCT) (“Direct Digital Holdings” or the “Company”), a leading advertising and marketing technology platform operating through its companies Colossus Media, LLC (“Colossus SSP”), Huddled Masses LLC (“Huddled Masses”) and Orange142, LLC (“Orange142”), today announced that the Company will participate in the 25th Annual ICR Conference from January 9-11, 2023 in Orlando, Florida.
Mark Walker, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Keith Smith, President, and Susan Echard, Chief Financial Officer, will participate in the conference. Management will be hosted in a fireside chat on Tuesday, January 10, 2023 at 10:00 AM ET and will also be available for meetings. A replay of the fireside chat will be available the following day on the Direct Digital Holdings IR Website at https://ir.directdigitalholdings.com/.
About Direct Digital Holdings
Direct Digital Holdings (Nasdaq: DRCT), owner of operating companies Colossus SSP, Huddled Masses, and Orange 142, brings state-of-the-art sell- and buy-side advertising platforms together under one umbrella company. Direct Digital Holdings’ sell-side platform, Colossus SSP, offers advertisers of all sizes extensive reach within general market and multicultural media properties. The company’s subsidiaries Huddled Masses and Orange142 deliver significant ROI for middle market advertisers by providing data-optimized programmatic solutions at scale for businesses in sectors that range from energy to healthcare to travel to financial services. Direct Digital Holdings’ sell- and buy-side solutions manage approximately 90,000 clients monthly, generating over 100 billion impressions per month across display, CTV, in-app and other media channels. Direct Digital Holdings is the ninth black-owned company to go public in the U.S and was named a top minority-owned business by The Houston Business Journal.
How to Play and Win the Gift-Stealing Game Bad Santa, According to a Mathematician
Christmas comes but once a year – as do Christmas party games. With such little practice it’s hard to get good at any of them.
Let me help. I’m going to share with you some expert tips, tested through mathematical modelling, on how to win one of the most popular games: Bad Santa – also known as Dirty Santa, White Elephant, Grab Bag, Yankee Swap, Thieving Secret Santa, or simply “that present-stealing game”.
This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Joel Gilmore, Associate Professor, Griffith University.
This isn’t advice on being a bad sport. It’s about being a good Bad Santa – which is the name of the game. You might even come away with a good gift and bragging rights.
How Bad Santa Works
Bad Santa is a variation of the classic Kris Kringle (or Secret Santa) game, in which each guest receives an anonymous gift bought by another guest. Part of the fun (for others) is the unwrapping of silly and useless gifts, which is done one by one.
Bad Santa spices things up. All the gifts are pooled. Guests take turns to choose one to unwrap. Or they can choose to “steal” a gift already opened by someone else. The person losing their gift then gets the same choice: open a wrapped present or steal someone else’s.
It’s a good alternative to buying a gift for everyone, and a great way to ruin friendships.
The order of players is usually determined by drawing numbers from a hat. This is important, because you’ve probably already noted the disadvantage of going first and the benefit of going last. The right rules can mitigate this. There are at least a dozen different versions of this game published online, and some are much less fair than others.
How I Tested Bad Santa
The best way to test Bad Santa rule variations and playing strategies would be to observe games in real life – say, by attending 1,000 Christmas parties (funding bodies please call me).
I did the next best thing, deploying the same type of computer modelling (known as agent-based modelling) used to understand everything from bidding in electricity markets to how the human immune system works.
In my model there are 16 virtual guests and 16 gifts. Each has different present preferences, rating opened gifts on a scale of 1 to 10. They will steal a gift they rate better than a 5. To make it interesting, three gifts are rated highly by everyone and there are three no one really wants – probably a novelty mug or something.
Image Credit Jernej Furman (Flickr)
After simulating 50,000 games with different rules, I’ve found a set of rules that seems the most fair, no matter what number you draw from the hat.
Choosing the Fairest Rules
The following graph shows the results for four different game variations.
The higher the line, the greater the overall satisfaction. The flatter the lines, the fairer the result. (If gifts were chosen randomly with no stealing, every player’s average satisfaction score would be 5).
The most unfair result comes from the “dark blue rules”, which stipulate that any gift can only be stolen once in any round. This mean if you’re the last person, you’ve got the biggest choice and get to keep what you steal. If you go first, you’re bound to lose out.
Fairest and Best Bad Santa Rules
The most fair outcomes come from the “red rules”:
A gift can be stolen multiple times each turn. This keeps presents moving between guests, which adds to the fun.
Once a person holds the same gift three times it becomes “locked”, and can no longer be stolen. This evens the game out a lot. Later players still see more gifts, but earlier players have more chance to lock the gift they want. It also ensures games don’t go on for hours.
After the last player’s turn, there is one more round of stealing, starting with the very first player. This also gives them a chance to steal at least once – and a slight advantage. But overall, these rules provide the most even outcomes.
Like most games, the rules are’t perfect. But the maths shows they are better than the alternatives. If you want to test other scenarios using my model, you can download my source code here.
On your turn you can either steal an open gift or open a new one If you’re stolen from, you can steal from someone else or open a gift. If you hold a gift three times, it is locked. First person gets a final steal.
Three Tips on Game Strategy
The right rules help level the playing field. They don’t eliminate the need for strategic thinking to maximise your chance to get a gift you want.
As in real life, seemingly fair rules can be manipulated.
One thing you could do is team up with other players to manipulate the “three holds and locked” rule. To do this, you’ll need at least two co-conspirators.
Say your friends Donner and Blitzen have their preferred gifts, and now it’s your turn. You steal Blitzen’s gift. Blitzen in turn steals Donner’s, who steals yours, and so on. Donner and Blitzen end up holding their chosen gifts a second time, then a third. You helped them out, and then can choose another gift.
Image Credit:Steve Jurvetson (Flickr)
In competitive markets this type of co-operation is usually know as collusion – and it’s illegal. In sport, it would simply be called cheating. So I’m not saying you should do this; I am merely explaining how the strategy works. If you do this and end up on the naughty list, don’t blame me.
I haven’t yet tested rules variations in my model to see how this collusion can best be eliminated or minimised. Maybe by next Christmas. (Or maybe not – for me, cheating through maths is half the fun of the game.)
So let me leave you with two perfectly legitimate strategies.
First, and most obviously, you must steal gifts!
My modelling quantifies how necessary this is. I simulated a game in which four guests will never steal a gift. Those guests are 75% less satisfied with their final gifts than the players who do steal. They’re also much less fun at parties.
