The U.S. oil industry is facing a sharp slowdown, with layoffs and spending cuts rippling across the sector as lower crude prices and industry consolidation squeeze margins. The wave of belt-tightening could mark the end of the rapid production growth that helped the United States overtake other producers to become the world’s top oil supplier in recent years.
International crude prices have fallen roughly 12% this year, dragged lower in part by rising output from OPEC and its allies, who have been steadily ramping up supply to reclaim market share lost to U.S. shale producers. Prices are now hovering just above $62 a barrel, uncomfortably close to breakeven levels for many U.S. operators. For companies already grappling with higher costs and trade-related tariffs, the weaker pricing environment is forcing tough decisions.
ConocoPhillips, the nation’s third-largest oil producer, recently announced plans to cut up to a quarter of its workforce. The move follows Chevron’s decision earlier this year to trim about 20% of its staff, amounting to roughly 8,000 jobs. Oilfield service providers such as SLB and Halliburton have also been cutting jobs, underscoring how the slowdown is spreading beyond producers to the broader energy ecosystem.
The cuts aren’t limited to people. According to a Reuters review of second-quarter results, 22 publicly traded U.S. producers—including ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy, and Occidental Petroleum—have reduced their combined capital spending by about $2 billion. Industry insiders say those pullbacks, along with falling rig counts, are early warning signs that production growth is set to level off. Baker Hughes data shows that the U.S. oil rig count has dropped by nearly 70 so far this year, down to just over 400.
In the Permian Basin, the heart of America’s shale boom, the tone has shifted from aggressive expansion to cautious retrenchment. “We’ve gone from ‘drill, baby, drill’ to ‘wait, baby, wait,’” said one Texas producer, pointing out that prices need to stabilize closer to $70–$75 a barrel before rig activity rebounds. Without that, analysts warn that U.S. output will plateau and could even begin to decline, with OPEC quickly stepping in to fill the gap.
Research firms are already forecasting slower momentum. Energy Aspects expects U.S. onshore production to drop by 300,000 barrels per day in 2025, while Wood Mackenzie projects only modest growth of 200,000 barrels per day—far below the record-setting pace of recent years.
Adding to the pressure are rising costs, much of it tied to tariffs on steel and other inputs. Diamondback Energy expects the price of steel casing for wells to climb by nearly 25% this year, inflating breakeven costs across the industry. For ConocoPhillips, controllable costs have already risen by $2 per barrel since 2021, making profitability harder to sustain.
The impact on employment is significant. Texas labor data shows U.S. oil and gas production jobs fell by nearly 5,000 in the first half of 2025, while energy services jobs have dropped by about 23,000 since January. Even with gains in drilling efficiency, industry analysts caution that technology alone won’t be enough to offset the slowdown.
For now, the U.S. oil industry remains a global leader. But with lower prices, higher costs, and fewer rigs in action, the sector’s once-rapid growth story appears to be entering a more uncertain chapter.