Oil Prices Rise for Third Week as Markets Brace for Trump’s Decision on Iran

Oil markets wrapped up their third consecutive week of gains on Friday as investors watched closely for U.S. President Donald Trump’s next move regarding the Israel-Iran conflict. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled just below $75 per barrel, while Brent crude, the global benchmark, hovered around $76, both on track to post roughly 3% gains for the week.

The latest rally in oil prices was largely driven by geopolitical tensions ignited by renewed hostilities between Israel and Iran. While the conflict hasn’t disrupted oil flows yet, the mere prospect of a wider regional escalation has kept traders on edge.

Early Friday trading saw a slight dip in prices as Trump signaled a potential preference for diplomacy over immediate military intervention. “We’ll give diplomacy a chance,” he told reporters on Thursday, suggesting that a final decision on U.S. involvement is still pending. This hint of restraint helped cool the market’s reaction temporarily but did little to derail the broader upward trend in crude prices.

Despite rising oil prices, analysts from major financial institutions remain cautious about the long-term impact of the conflict on global energy markets. Citi’s commodities research team believes the risk of significant supply disruption remains limited.

“Disrupting oil supply isn’t in the interest of either Iran or the U.S.,” said Spiro Dounis, Citi’s senior energy analyst. He noted that even if Iran’s 1.1 million barrels per day of oil exports were completely halted, Brent prices would likely rise only modestly to the $75–78 range — not far above current levels.

Goldman Sachs offered a more dramatic short-term outlook, estimating that in the event of an actual disruption, oil prices could temporarily surge to $90 per barrel. However, the bank expects prices to normalize over the next year, potentially falling back to the $60 range in 2026 as supply recovers.

Importantly, current oil flows remain uninterrupted. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most crucial maritime oil chokepoints — continue unimpeded, and Iranian exports have not declined, easing some of the market’s worst fears.

A key factor cushioning the market is spare production capacity among OPEC+ members. The alliance, which includes major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, has been gradually increasing output in recent months, providing a potential buffer against sudden supply shocks.

“Above-average global spare capacity — equivalent to 4–5% of global demand — is the main cushion against Iran-specific disruptions,” said Goldman’s Daan Struyven. He pointed to the bloc’s strategic unwinding of production cuts as a stabilizing force in the current market environment.

With uncertainty still looming over the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, oil prices are likely to remain volatile in the near term. Much will depend on whether Trump follows through with military action or continues to push for a diplomatic resolution. For now, investors will be watching closely, knowing that even the perception of risk can be enough to sway global oil markets.

Global Oil Markets Navigate Uncertain Waters Amid Trade Tensions and Iran Sanctions

Key Points:
– Oil prices retreat as markets weigh impact of potential US retaliatory tariffs
– Treasury signals stricter Iran export limits, targeting 100,000 barrels per day
– JPMorgan forecasts Brent crude to average $61 in 2026 amid supply surplus

Crude oil markets demonstrated heightened volatility on Friday as traders grappled with conflicting signals from geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties. The commodity market’s response highlights growing concerns about global demand amid an increasingly complex international trade landscape.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude retreated below the critical $71 mark, continuing its downward trajectory for the week, while Brent futures showed resilience but remained vulnerable to mounting trade concerns. The mixed performance comes as markets digest President Trump’s latest trade policy moves and stricter Iran sanctions.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s hawkish statements regarding Iranian oil exports sent initial shockwaves through the market, pushing prices up by 1% in early trading. “We are committed to bringing the Iranians to going back to 100,000 barrels per day of exports, as when Trump left office,” Bessent told Fox Business, signaling a potentially significant supply disruption.

However, the bullish momentum was quickly tempered by escalating trade tensions. President Trump’s signing of a reciprocal tariff plan, although delayed for negotiations, has introduced new uncertainties into the global economic outlook. The move follows recent targeted sanctions against Chinese products, which prompted immediate retaliation from Beijing.

“The demand picture remains in question near term as the retaliation of even higher US tariffs may hamper global demand,” warns Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial. This sentiment echoes throughout the trading community, with many analysts expressing concern about the potential impact on global growth and oil demand.

Adding another layer of complexity to the market outlook, recent developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict have introduced additional price pressures. JPMorgan’s commodity team, led by Natasha Kaneva, maintains their 2025 Brent forecast at $73 per barrel, citing supply surpluses. Their analysis extends into 2026, projecting prices to decline below $60 by year-end.

Market veterans note that the current price action reflects a delicate balance between supply-side constraints and demand-side uncertainties. “We’re seeing a market that’s increasingly sensitive to macro factors beyond traditional supply-demand dynamics,” explains Maria Rodriguez, chief commodities strategist at Global Market Analytics. “The interplay between trade policy, geopolitical tensions, and energy security concerns is creating a complex trading environment.”

Technical analysts point to key support levels around $70 for WTI crude, suggesting potential downside risks if this threshold is breached. “The market is showing signs of technical weakness, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average, forming what traders call a ‘death cross,'” notes Alex Chen, senior technical analyst at Energy Market Solutions. This bearish technical signal, combined with fundamental headwinds, could pressure prices further in the near term.

Looking ahead to Q2 2025, market participants are closely monitoring several key factors that could influence price direction. The effectiveness of Iran sanctions, potential shifts in OPEC+ production policy, and the outcome of trade negotiations between major economies will likely determine the market’s trajectory. Goldman Sachs maintains a more bullish outlook than its peers, forecasting Brent crude to reach $85 per barrel by year-end, citing potential supply disruptions and stronger-than-expected Chinese demand.