Tag: Weight Loss

Viking’s Surprise Move in the $150 Billion Weight Loss Race

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Viking Therapeutics stock surges 20% after announcing early advancement to late-stage trials for weight loss drug
– Company’s experimental injection VK2735 shows promising results, potentially rivaling industry giants
– Decision to skip additional mid-stage trial could accelerate drug’s market entry by a year
– Viking also developing a convenient monthly injection and oral version of the drug

In a stunning turn of events, the relatively unknown biotech company Viking Therapeutics has suddenly become the talk of Wall Street. The San Diego-based firm saw its stock price soar by over 20% on Thursday, following a game-changing announcement that has investors and health enthusiasts alike sitting up and taking notice.

The catalyst for this dramatic surge? Viking Therapeutics revealed its plans to fast-track its experimental weight loss injection, VK2735, directly into late-stage trials. This bold move, which comes earlier than expected, has positioned the company as a potential dark horse in the fiercely competitive GLP-1 market, currently dominated by pharmaceutical giants Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

The GLP-1 market, projected to balloon to a staggering $150 billion by the end of the decade, has been a battlefield for drug companies seeking to capitalize on the growing demand for effective weight loss solutions. Viking’s unexpected leap forward has not only caught the attention of investors but also sent ripples through the industry, with shares of both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dipping more than 1% in response.

What makes Viking’s VK2735 so promising? In a phase two trial, patients receiving weekly doses of the injection lost up to 14.7% of their body weight over just 13 weeks – an impressive figure that puts it in the same league as its more established competitors. But Viking isn’t stopping there. The company is also developing a monthly injection version of VK2735, which could offer a more convenient option for patients compared to the weekly regimens of current market leaders.

Adding another layer of intrigue, Viking is simultaneously working on an oral version of VK2735. In early-stage trials, this pill form demonstrated a 3.3% weight loss compared to placebo, opening up the possibility of a non-injectable alternative in the future.

The decision to skip an additional mid-stage trial and move directly to phase three could shave off a significant amount of time from Viking’s development timeline. Analysts now estimate that this strategic move could accelerate the drug’s market entry by as much as a year, potentially launching in 2028 instead of the previously projected 2029.

Viking’s CEO, Brian Lian, expressed confidence in the company’s direction during a recent earnings call, citing positive feedback from the Food and Drug Administration as a key factor in their decision to expedite the development process. The company is now preparing for a crucial meeting with the FDA in the fourth quarter to discuss the design and timing of the phase three trial.

As Viking Therapeutics gears up for this next critical phase, the biotech world watches with bated breath. Could this underdog company be on the verge of disrupting the weight loss drug market? With its promising results and aggressive development strategy, Viking is certainly positioning itself as a formidable contender in the race to capture a slice of the lucrative GLP-1 pie.

For investors and health-conscious individuals alike, the message is clear: keep a close eye on Viking Therapeutics. This small biotech firm might just be holding the key to the next big breakthrough in weight loss treatment.

Behind the Scenes of Biotech’s Battle for the Billion-Dollar Diet Pill

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

For biotech investors scouring for the next big opportunity, the massive manufacturing expansions underway at pharma giant Eli Lilly (LLY) are worth a close look. The company just announced another staggering $5.3 billion investment into a key production facility in Indiana to crank up supply of its blockbuster obesity and diabetes drugs.

This commitment brings Lilly’s total investment at the Lebanon, Indiana site to an incredible $9 billion – representing the firm’s largest-ever manufacturing bet in its nearly 150-year history. It highlights the huge demand that Lilly’s game-changing medications like Mounjaro and Zepbound are facing from physicians and patients alike.

For small biotech firms developing the next generation of weight loss, diabetes and metabolism therapies, Lilly’s supply chain moves send an important signal – this market is headed for explosive growth in the coming years. Companies sitting on promising pipeline candidates could emerge as attractive buyout targets.

At the heart of Lilly’s expansion plans are its incretin drugs, which mimic gut hormones to suppress appetite and regulate blood sugar. Mounjaro, approved for diabetes, and Zepbound, greenlit for chronic weight management, both contain the active ingredient tirzepatide.

Since their launches, demand for these effective and convenient once-weekly injectable treatments has far outstripped supply. Shortages have been widespread in the U.S. as Lilly raced to build out its production infrastructure.

The new $9 billion Indiana campus will be instrumental in increasing Lilly’s capacity to manufacture tirzepatide at scale. When fully operational in 2028, it will employ around 900 skilled workers including scientists, engineers and technicians.

But this plant is just one piece of Lilly’s supply chain mobilization for incretin drugs. Since 2020, the company has plowed over $18 billion into building, acquiring and expanding manufacturing sites in the U.S. and Europe. New facilities are also coming online in North Carolina, Ireland and Germany through 2026.

These investments are already paying dividends. On its latest earnings call, Lilly hiked its 2023 revenue guidance by $2 billion, citing greater visibility into ramping up production of Mounjaro, Zepbound and its incretin pipeline over the remainder of the year.

For small biotechs, the supply chain frenzy at Lilly underscores the commercial opportunity in obesity, diabetes and metabolism. With over 40% of U.S. adults classified as obese, safe and effective chronic weight management regimens like Lilly’s incretin franchise could disrupt a massive global market worth billions annually.

Take a moment to look at more emerging growth biotechnology companies by taking a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Senior Research Analyst Robert LeBoyer’s coverage list.

The manufacturing expansions suggest appetite for these therapies will continue to surge, fueling demand for the next generation of medications offering better efficacy, tolerability and dosing schedules. Smaller drug developers operating in this space could become prime M&A candidates as deep-pocketed pharmas look to build out their obesity and diabetes portfolios.

Case in point: Lilly itself acquired Zepbound through its $8 billion buyout of Protunor Biopharma in 2022. Several major deals have already reshaped the incretin drug landscape in recent years, including Pfizer’s $6.7 billion purchase of Akero Therapeutics for its NASH/diabetes pipeline.

With its bold investments, Lilly is putting its money where its mouth is when it comes to obesity and metabolic disease. For lean biotechs advancing the next wave of therapies in this booming treatment category, that could spell opportunity knocking in the form of lucrative buyout offers or partnerships down the line.

Keep an eye on this space as Lilly’s supply chain moves underscore that the fight against fat is only just beginning for the pharmaceutical industry.

Novo Holdings Announces Catalent Acquisition

Posted on by cpatches

In a strategic move aimed at addressing the soaring demand for its revolutionary weight-loss drug, Wegovy, Novo Holdings, the parent company of Novo Nordisk, has disclosed plans to acquire contract drug maker Catalent for $11.5 billion in cash. This acquisition is poised to fortify Novo Nordisk’s production capabilities in response to the extraordinary demand for innovative weight loss and diabetes medications.

Novo Holdings will acquire Catalent for $11.5 billion in cash. As part of the deal, Novo Nordisk will purchase three Catalent fill-finish sites, bolstering the production of Wegovy and other crucial medications. The acquisition is strategically driven by the exceptional demand for Wegovy and Ozempic over the past year.

Novo anticipates that the deal will have a low single-digit percentage negative impact on operating profit growth in 2024 and 2025. The terms include the acquisition of all outstanding shares of Catalent for $63.50 per share in cash, representing a premium of 16.5% to the company’s last trading price. Novo will also assume Catalent’s debt, bringing the total enterprise value of the deal to $16.5 billion.

The acquisition is expected to gradually increase Novo’s filling capacity, with notable effects expected from 2026 onwards. The three fill-finish sites, located in Italy, Belgium, and Bloomington, Indiana, will play a crucial role in supporting Novo Nordisk’s expanding drug portfolio.

In the growing obesity drug market, Novo Nordisk faces competition from Eli Lilly’s Zepbound. Analysts estimate that the obesity drug market could reach $100 billion by the end of the decade, highlighting the immense potential for companies in this sector.

The acquisition aligns seamlessly with Novo Holdings’ strategy of investing in established life science companies with significant long-term potential. Catalent’s expertise in enabling pharmaceutical, biotech, and consumer health partners is in harmony with Novo Holdings’ commitment to improving health and sustainability.

The merger is anticipated to close by the end of calendar year 2024, subject to customary closing conditions, Catalent stockholder approval, and regulatory approvals. Catalent’s Board unanimously recommends that stockholders vote in favor of the merger, following an evaluation of value-maximizing alternatives.

Kasim Kutay, CEO of Novo Holdings, expressed excitement about the partnership with Catalent and emphasized their commitment to supporting Catalent’s growth and mission to develop products that enhance lives.

Novo Holdings’ acquisition of Catalent represents a strategic move to strengthen production capabilities and meet the escalating demand for transformative medications like Wegovy. As the merger progresses, it not only positions Novo Nordisk for continued success in the competitive pharmaceutical landscape but also aligns with Novo Holdings’ broader mission of investing in high-quality life sciences companies for the betterment of society and the planet. The industry will be closely watching the outcome of this significant acquisition, anticipating positive impacts on Novo Nordisk’s product development and market position.

Mark your calendars! Don’t miss Noble Capital Markets’ Emerging Growth Virtual Healthcare Equity Conference on April 17-18. This exclusive virtual event connects investors with 50 leading public biotech, healthcare services, and medical device companies. Presenting company slots are available…Read More

Pfizer Weight Loss Pill Hits Snag in Mid-Stage Trial

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer suffered a setback this week in the high-stakes race to tap into the burgeoning multi-billion dollar weight loss drug market. The company announced it is halting development of the twice-daily formulation of its experimental obesity pill danuglipron after underwhelming mid-stage trial results.

While the drug induced significant weight loss in obese patients, it came at the cost of poor tolerability. Over half of participants dropped out of the phase 2 study due to adverse gastrointestinal side effects like nausea and diarrhea.

Nonetheless, Pfizer still intends to stay in the game with a once-daily version of danuglipron. The company aims to release fresh phase 2 data on the more competitive formulation in early 2024 before determining next steps.

For a drugmaker grappling with fading Covid-19 revenues, the news deals a tough blow to its strategy to offset declines through potential new blockbusters for obesity. Just last year, CEO Albert Bourla tagged the total addressable weight loss market at a whopping $90 billion.

But competition is cutthroat, with Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly vying to convert millions from their injectable diabetes meds to an oral option. Their rival pills have already posted mid-teens percentage weight loss results that position them to potentially leapfrog Pfizer’s attempt.

Danuglipron Quick Facts

  • Twice-daily formulation now discontinued after 6.9% to 11.7% weight loss at 32 weeks
  • Well below 14-15% loss seen as competitive threshold
  • High rates of nausea, vomiting, diarrhea
  • Over 50% dropout rate

Key Takeaways for Investors
The disappointing data for danuglipron’s twice-daily pill underscores several investor concerns around Pfizer’s efforts to expand into weight loss medicines.

Uphill Battle Against Rivals
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly already dominate the obesity drug landscape with their injectable products Saxenda and Ozempic. Lilly’s oral candidate tirzepatide is showing roughly 15% weight loss over 72 weeks, clearing the competitive bar Pfizer failed to hit.

While the field is large enough for multiple winners, Pfizer faces substantial share challenges from these deeply entrenched rivals. Its best-case outcome may be carving off a small slice rather than market leadership.

Tolerability Issues Limiting
Danuglipron has now faltered twice in mid-stage studies due to side effects leading over half of volunteers to quit treatment. The once-daily route shows some promise, but gastrointestinal problems may hamper uptake if they persist. By comparison, tirzepatide posted a 21% dropout rate.

Uncertainty Remains High
With phase 3 trials still a distant prospect, the program faces a long road ahead fraught with risk. While danuglipron evinced significant weight-loss efficacy, real-world commercial success depends greatly on improving its poor tolerability profile.

Until then, uncertainty around Pfizer’s weight loss aspirations stays high. Expect sales projections to remain muted absent positive late-stage outcomes down the line. But rivals like Lilly and Novo aren’t standing still either, making danuglipron’s path ahead even trickier.

Weight Loss Drugs Shake Up Pharma Stocks, But Wider Impact Remains Unclear

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

A new class of potent weight loss drugs has been shaking up the pharmaceutical sector, sending stocks of some major drug makers soaring. But the wider impact on other industries like food, retail, and medical devices remains uncertain amidst changing consumer behaviors.

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have been riding high thanks to their injectable diabetes medications Ozempic and Mounjaro. Though only approved for diabetes, both drugs have shown dramatic weight loss potential in clinical trials.

Ozempic and Mounjaro belong to a drug class called GLP-1 agonists. They mimic a hormone that regulates appetite and food intake. Patients using the new drugs at high doses can lose up to a quarter of their body weight.

Predictions have emerged that these drugs could reshape industries from restaurants to airlines. But so far, the actual impact beyond pharma has been muted.

In the stock market, Novo Nordisk shares are up over 50% in the last year thanks to Ozempic. The drug’s sales hit $5.2 billion in the first 9 months of 2022. Mounjaro brought in $187 million for Lilly within just 2 months of its launch.

“The physiological benefits these treatments offer patients help address significant unmet needs,” said Josh Schimmer, senior analyst at Evercore ISI.

The market potential also has investors excited. If just 2% of obese Americans eventually use weight loss medications, it could swell into a $58 billion market according to Evercore forecasts.

Among other drug stocks involved, Amgen owns a portion of Mounjaro’s revenue due to a licensing deal with Lilly. Meanwhile, companies like Entera Bio and Novo Nordisk have oral pills in late stage testing that could expand the weight loss drug market substantially.

However, analysts caution growth depends on how insurers cover the drugs which can cost nearly $1,500 a month without insurance. Usage also remains low currently at around just 1% of the US population.

Beyond pharma, the impact is hazier. The consumer staples sector has been the worst performing segment of the S&P 500 this year as investors brace for potential fallout.

But so far, food and beverage leaders seem unfazed. PepsiCo, Hershey, and Constellation Brands recently reported strong quarters without seeing signs of slowing demand.

Retailers and restaurants have opportunities to adapt their offerings to court health-focused consumers. “Maybe the GLP-1 consumer looks very different three or five years from now,” said Goldman Sachs analyst Jason English.

Surprisingly, medical device makers also haven’t seen slowed growth yet either. In fact, continuous glucose monitoring usage grew right alongside Ozempic prescriptions, suggesting weight loss isn’t eliminating diabetes demand.

However, bariatric surgery has been slightly impacted according to comments from Johnson & Johnson’s CEO. Other discretionary categories like apparel and travel could eventually be impacted if behaviors change long term.

For now, the uncertainty leaves analysts split on whether these drugs are a fad or the beginning of a healthcare revolution. But Wall Street is clearly enamored with the weight loss leaders.

As more data emerges on usage and impact, it will determine whether stock declines are overdone for consumer staples beyond pharma. If wide adoption materializes, Novo and Lilly appear poised to dominate a blockbuster new drug market.