Tag: Weekly

The Week Ahead – Inflation (CPI), Jobs, and 13-f Holdings Reports

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Will the Inflation Numbers on Valentine’s Cause the Market to See Red?

As earnings season fades investors that like to get a glimpse into the portfolios of successful money managers will look for the 13-f filings of some of the most followed investors as they are made available. Tuesday and Wednesday should bring Michael Burry’s and Warren Buffet’s filing. The CPI report on Tuesday is expected to show a continuation of inflation tapering. The Jobs report on Thursdays has been missing consensus, it has the potential to either calm or rattle the markets.

Monday 2/13

  • With no consequential economic releases, market direction may take its tone from traders positioning ahead of Tuesday’s CPI report.

Tuesday 2/14

  • 8:30 AM ET, January’s headline CPI rate is expected to increase month to month by 0.5% after a .1% decline experienced in December, and year-over-year at 6.2% versus 6.5% the prior 12 months. Ex-food and energy (core rate) is expected to show unchanged at a 5.5% annual rate versus 5.7% the prior 12 months.
  • In previous years Michael Burry has made a public filing of Scion Asset Managements 13-f holdings on Valentine’s Day. Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway will make available his changed positions. This filing is also likely on Tuesday or perhaps Wednesday.

Wednesday 2/15

  • 9:15 AM ET, Industrial Production, which includes data for Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization has been contracting. January’s consensus estimates are for monthly gains of 0.5% for production and 0.4% for manufacturing and would be a welcome sign for those fearing a  recession. The positive direction would be welcome after December’s monthly decline of 0.7% overall and 1.3% for manufacturing. Capacity utilization is expected to remain at a non-inflationary 78.8%.
  • 10:00 AM ET, Business Inventories data for December are expected to rise 0.3% following a 0.4% expansion in November. Intentional inventory growth can be a sign of business optimism surrounding future sales. If unintended inventory accumulation occurs, then production will probably be throttled back as inventories are worked down. This is why Business Inventories a leading economic indicator.
  • 10:00 AM ET, The Housing Market Index fell each month in 2022. The weak streak ended in January, as it rose 4 points to 35. February’s consensus is a further but smaller 1-point improvement to 36. The Housing Index is a monthly composite that tracks home builder assessments of present and future sales along with buyer traffic
  • 10:00 AM ET, Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations survey provides a monthly measure of year-ahead inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty from the perspective of firms. The survey also provides a monthly gauge of firms’ current sales, profit margins, and unit cost changes. The year over year estimate is for 3%.

Thursday 2/16

  • 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims, including Initial Claims and Continuing Claims, have been a big focus of the market as unemployment is running at a historically low pace. The consensus is for growth in Jobless levels to 199,000 versus 196,000 the prior week. Overall low claims would seem to be good news for the economy. The problem now is that it is worrisome for a Fed that views current inflationary pressures, including wage pressures unacceptably high.

Friday 2/17

  • 8:30 AM ET, The Index of Leading Indicators has been in steep decline; it is expected to fall further, but less steeply, by 0.3 percent in January versus a fall of 0.8% in December.

What Else

Investors with interest in telecommunications company Comtech (CMTL) and located in South Florida, may be able to attend one of four special presentations by management on Monday or Tuesday. Get information here to see if this is suited for you.

Monday, February 20th, is a holiday, and the US markets will be closed.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/macroeconomic-news-6feb23/

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

The Week Ahead – Powell Speaks, Jobless Claims, Consumer Sentiment

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

The Fed Chair’s Comments May be the Most Critical Market Event of the Week  

It’s a quiet week for economic data. If the market takes a direction this week, it may have to take its lead from something other than statistics that indicate economic strength or weakness. This could be a Fed governor speaking, or a central bank outside of the US altering its hawkish stance.

Monday 2/6

  • With no consequential economic releases, market direction may take its tone from earnings reports from a wide swath of industries.

Tuesday 2/7

  • 11:00 AM ET, New York Federal Reserve inflation expectations. 
  • 3:00 PM ET, Consumer Credit, or more definitively, the installment credit outstanding by consumers is expected to have increased by $25 billion in December versus  November’s $27.9 billion increase. There is such a long delay reporting this number that it seldom has a market impact.  
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking at the Economic Club of Washington.

Wednesday 2/8

  • 10:00 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories revision for December is in line with the first estimate of 1%. Wholesale sales and inventory data can provide investors a chance to look below the surface of the consumer economy. Activity at the wholesale level can then be a precursor of consumer trends.

Thursday 2/9

  • 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims, including Initial Claims and Continuing Claims, have been a big focus of the market as unemployment is running at a historically low pace. The consensus is for growth in Jobless levels to 190,000 versus 183,000 the prior week. Overall low claims would seem to be good news for the economy. The problem now is that it is except that it is worrisome for a Fed that views current inflationary pressures, including wage pressures unacceptably high.

Friday 2/10

• 10:00 AM ET, The University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey Center questions households each month on their assessment of current conditions and expectations of future conditions. Consumer sentiment is not expected to show much improvement, at a consensus 65.0 in the first reading for February versus 64.9 in January.

What Else

The FOMC meeting that ended on February 1 was the last before Chair Powell delivers the semiannual monetary policy testimony in late February or early March (not yet set). Any remarks by Fed officials in the February 6 week should be viewed in that context. Powell and associates will not want to confuse any upcoming message given at the semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. Whatever is said is likely to foreshadow what will be in the report when he speaks before the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services Committee.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/macroeconomic-news-6feb23/

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

The Week Ahead – FOMC Policy Decision & Briefing Amidst Key Earnings Reports

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

The Fed May Try to Talk Rates Up While Increasing Overnight Levels by a Lower Amount

There will be plenty for the market to digest this week. While all ears will be on what Fed Chairman Powell says following Wednesday’s FOMC policy announcement, investors will get to also digest a barage of earnings reports. The quarterly reports, from various sectors, may set the tone for their industries. These include reporting on Monday by Advanced Micro (AMD), Amgen (AMGN), Caterpillar (CAT), Exxon Mobil (XOM), McDonald’s (MCD), Pfizer (PFE), and United Parcel (UPS). On Tuesday Meta Platforms (META) will be one of the most talked about, then on Wednesday the market gets a barrage from tech and pharmaceutical companies as Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Bristol-Myers (BMY), Eli Lilly (LLY), Honeywell (HON), Merck (MRK), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are all scheduled to report operating performance.

Monday 1/30

  • With no consequential economic releases, market direction may take its tone from earnings reports from a wide swath of industries (see tickers above).

Tuesday 1/31

  • The first of 2023’s eight scheduled two-day FOMC meetings begins.
  • 8:30 AM ET, Employment Cost Index is expected to have risen 1.1% for the fourth quarter. For the last five quarters, large gains of 1 percent and more have been keeping wage inflation a concern.
  • 8:30 AM ET, After jumping 7 points in December, the consumer confidence index is expected to firm only 0.7 of a point to 109.0 in January. The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often the largest influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and possibly higher stock prices as a result.

Wednesday 2/1

  • 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA) compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction. The composite index is expected to come in at 27.9%, while the Purchase applications are expected to show a reading of 24.7%. The data provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but economic momentum.
  • 9:45 AM ET, Construction Spending, for December is expected to slip 0.1 percent after moving 0.2 percent higher in November. Spending has been flat in recent months as gains in non-residential construction have been offset by declines on the residential side.
  • 10:00 AM ET, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which have been steady to lower, are expected to fall to 10.2 million in December versus 10.458 million in November.
  • 2:00 PM ET, FOMC meeting concludes with statement of policy shift. The Fed is expected to reduce its rate hike magnitude to 25 basis points. A 0.25% increase would raise the overnight Fed Funds rate range up to 4.50% –  4.75%.
  • 2:30 PM ET, Fed Chair Powell’s press briefing. The purpose of the briefing is to provide additional context to the FOMC’s policy decisions and to allow for questions-and-answers with the press. There has been concern that the market has been pushing rates down out in terms beyond two years to maturity. This could be a undermining the Fed’s stated objective by tightening. If this is true, the briefing may be filled with language that tries to convince the bond markets, that the Fed is determined to slow the economy by pushing rates up.

Thursday 2/2

  • 7:30 AM ET, the Challenger Job Cut report counts and categorizes announcements of corporate layoffs based on mass layoff data from state departments of labor. The job-cut report doesn’t distinguish between layoffs scheduled for the short-term or the long term, or whether job cuts are handled through attrition or actual dismissals. Also, the job-cut report does not include jobs eliminated in small batches over a longer time period. Unlike most economic data, this series is not adjusted for seasonal variation.  
  • 8:30 AM ET, Nonfarm Productivity is expected to rise to a 2.4 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter versus growth of 0.8 percent in the third quarter. Unit labor costs, which rose 2.4 percent in the third quarter, are expected to rise to a 1.5 percent rate in the fourth quarter.
  • 10:00 AM ET, Factory Orders are expected to rise 2.2 percent in December following  November’s steep 1.8 percent drop. The expected increase comes in the wake of a surge in aircraft orders.

Friday 2/3

• 8:30 AM ET, Nonfarm Payroll is expected to have grown 185,000 in January versus 223,000 in December which was the eighth straight month and tenth of the last eleven that payroll growth exceeded the average economists expectation.  Average hourly earnings in January are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month for a year-over-year rate of 4.4 percent.

What Else

The tone of the chatter that is expected to come from Fed officials is one of continued hawkishness. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure (PCE) was at 4.4% for all of 2022, and has been trending downward. This is more than double the stated target of 2%. The question they are now facing is, whether they should soon pause tightening and observe the impact of previous moves. Or if the solid employment numbers and strong bank reserve positions leave room for continuing the war on inflation through aggressive overnight rate hikes. Powell’s press conference after the 2 pm announcement on Wednesday should reveal quite a bit.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

The Week Ahead – PCE Inflation, Big Tech Earnings, No Fed Speeches

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

With a Light Week Ahead for Economic Reports, Investors Eye Big-Tech Earnings

In contrast to recent weeks, which began quietly as investors waited on late-week releases (i.e.: inflation, Beige Book, Fed announcements, etc.) before getting involved, this week is relatively quiet for economic reports. With less to be concerned about undermining any new positions, early week activity, without a holiday, may help increase volume. The scarcity of economic numbers could also cause more attention to be paid to earnings reports. This coming week we’ll receive a slew of big tech companies reporting. Disappointment may cause tech, which is showing signs of life early in 2023, to fall behind again. Whereas surprises on the upside could help unwind some of last year’s dismal big tech performance. Small Cap stocks, for their part, are keeping pace with the Nasdaq 100 mega stocks.

Earnings of both small-caps and mega-caps this week may produce a clear front-running segment based on capitalization.  

There’s a Fed meeting next week. While the consensus seems to be for a 25 bp hike, Fed governors have been clear in recent addresses that the tightening cycle is not over. The PCE number late this week is considered the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. There are no scheduled addresses by Fed regional presidents leading up to the two-day meeting that concludes on February 1.  

Monday 1/23

  • 8:30 AM ET The index of leading economic indicators, which has been in steep decline (dropped a full 1.0 percent in November), is expected to have fallen a further 0.7 percent in December. The index of leading economic indicators is a composite of 10 forward-looking components, including building permits, new factory orders, stock market performance, and unemployment claims. As such, estimates pre-report tend to be very close to the actual number. The report attempts to predict general economic conditions six months out.

Tuesday 1/24

  • 9:45 AM ET, The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has been drifting down further into contraction – no relief is expected for January. Manufacturing is seen at 46.5 with services at 45.5.

Wednesday 1/25

  • 7:00 AM ET, the Mortgage Bankers’ Association (MBA) compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction. The composite index is expected to come in at 27.9%, while the Purchase applications are expected to show a reading of 24.7%. The data provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing but economic momentum.

Thursday 1/26

  • 8:30 AM ET, Forecasters see Durable Goods Orders rebounding 2.8 percent in December, which would more than reverse November’s steep 2.1 percent decline. Yet the gain is seen concentrated in aircraft as both ex-transportation and core capital goods orders are seen falling 0.2 percent.
  • 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, or GDP for the fourth quarter is expected to have slowed to a 2.7% annualized growth versus third-quarter growth of 3.2%. Positive growth would indicate that the economy is not in a recession.
  • 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims are a weekly report. For the January 21 week, it is expected to come in at 202,000 versus a very low 190,000 in the prior week. The Fed focuses on jobs; the very strong numbers (low) suggest the Fed has room to tighten without being overly disruptive to job creation. Also, a tight labor market can be viewed as inflationary.
  • 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales in December are expected to revert to the downward trend at a 614,000 annualized rate versus November’s 640,000. Higher home sales reverberate throughout the economy in terms of spending and growth.

Friday 1/27

• 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income is expected to have increased a monthly 0.2 percent higher in December, with consumption expenditures expected to have decreased 0.1 percent. These would compare with respective November gains of 0.4 and 0.1 percent.

The PCE inflation readings for December, which are part of the PI numbers, are expected to show no change overall and up 0.3 percent for the core (versus respective gains of 0.1 and 0.2 percent) for annual rates of 5.0 and 4.4 percent (versus November’s 5.5 and 4.7 percent).

What Else

The Federal Reserve is very likely through most of its overnight Fed Funds tightening cycle.  Japan, which had gone through decades of having a deflation problem, is now experiencing the highest inflation in 41 years. The Bank of Japan has not adopted the aggressively hawkish monetary policy that the US has. The US central bank, chaired by Jerome Powell, must be looking on and holding his stated opinion that he’d rather do too much tightening than too little.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-st-week-ahead-tech-stock-rebound-faces-doubters-with-earnings-season-ahead-2023-01-20/

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

The Week Ahead – Earnings Season, Beige Book, Jobs Report

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Can the S&P Hold Above 4,000? Will Fed Presidents Change Market Expectations?

The S&P 500 closed on the cusp of 4,000 last week; while this is still nearly 800 points from an all-time-high if it should break through and hold, it could have positive psychological value for equity markets.

Two reports this week that have the potential to drive direction are both released on Wednesday. They are the December numbers on retail sales and the Fed’s Beige Book. Earnings season is also in full swing beginning this week. The reporting results of companies such as Netflix on Thursday may have an impact and set the stage for specific sectors and markets.

The Beige Book will provide a sense of economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts, measuring the period between late November and early January. The tone of the last three releases points toward the US economy sitting on the brink of recession. There will be information on how interest rates are impacting housing markets and the strength of the labor market in different districts. The evidence in the report could mean the difference between a 0.25% increase or a 0.50% increase after the FOMC meeting held on January 31 through February 1.

Monday 1/16

  • US Markets and Government Offices closed (MLK Jr. Day).

Tuesday 1/17

  • 8:30 AM ET, The Empire State Manufacturing Index disappointed in December with a reading of minus 11.2. The estimate for January is less negative minus 7.5. It tallies, each first of the month, the same pool of roughly 200 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) responses to a questionnaire on an assortment of indicators from the previous month.
  • 3:00 PM ET, John Williams, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York will be speaking. The New York Fed President is a particularly influential voting member of the FOMC. There is the possibility of insight into how that member may have changed their leaning on policy, which could impact markets.

Wednesday 1/18

  • 8:30 AM ET, PPI- Final Demand Numbers will be released for December; they are expected to have fallen 0.1 percent on the month for a year-over-year increase of 6.8%. This would compare with a 7.4% year-over-year level in November.
  • 8:30 AM ET, Retail Sales are expected to fall 0.9% in December on top of November’s weaker-than-expected 0.6% decline. Ex-vehicle sales slipped 0.2% in November, with this measure expected to fall 0.5% in December. When excluding both vehicles and gasoline, sales are expected to read 0.1% higher.
  • 9:00 AM ET, the President of the Atlanta Fed, Raphael Bostic, will be speaking. Any time a voting member of the FOMC is speaking publicly, there is the potential for insight into how that member may have adjusted their leaning on policy. Atlanta Fed events are often broadcast live on this YouTube channel.
  • 9:15 AM ET, Industrial Production has been contracting, and further the contraction is expected to continue with a consensus loss estimate of 0.1% for December. Manufacturing output is expected to fall 0.2%.
  • 9:30 AM ET, the Chief Executive Officer of the St. Louis Fed, James Bullard, will be speaking.
  • 10:00 AM ET, Business inventories in November are expected to rise 0.4% following a 0.3% build in October.
  • 2:00 PM ET, Beige Book Release.

Thursday 1/19

  • 8:30 AM ET, December’s annualized rates are expected at 1.358 million for starts and 1.380 million for permits which would compare with 1.427 and 1.342 million in November.
  • 8:30 AM ET, Jobless claims for the January 14 week are expected to rise slightly to 215,000 versus 205,000 and 206,000 in the two prior weeks.
  • 8:30 AM ET, The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to come in at minus 10.0 in January. This report has been contracting for six of the last seven reports.
  • 9:00 AM ET, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Fed President Susan Collins is scheduled to speak.
  • The debt ceiling may be reached as per US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Friday 1/20

• 10:00 AM ET, Existing home sales in December are expected to have declined further to a 3.955 million annualized rate versus November’s lower-than-expected 4.090 million.

1:00 PM ET, Better World Acquisition (BWAC) will be interviewed in a C-Suite style interview. A video will be made available here on Channelchek.

What Else

The Federal Reserve members can impact longer-term interest rates by impacting expectations they set through their speeches. Some say their voices have been drowned out by analysts and media reporting. For this reason, Fed rhetoric may become elevated as we approach the next FOMC meeting that begins late month.

Earnings season begins to ramp up just as a major index at psychologically important levels. This could be what sets the tone for the stock market and various sectors for the first quarter.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/Debt-Limit-Letter-to-Congress-McCarthy-20230113.pdf

The Week Ahead – Inflation Data in Focus

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Although CPI is the Focus, Chairman Powell’s Discussion in Sweden Could Have a Long-Lasting Impact

As this full five-day trading week kicks off, stock’s YTD performance and the week-to-date performance are equal. This will change with the opening bell on Monday. It is a quiet week for highly scrutinized numbers or events. However, two scheduled events have the potential to change investor sentiment. The first comes on Tuesday when the US central bank chairman (Fed Chair Powell)  speaks in Stockholm about central bank independence. This debate regarding politic’s role in central bank decisions is getting more intense. Channelchek recently published an article on the subject which can be found here.

The second is CPI which is the next look we get at inflation. If inflation is higher than expectations, the stock and bond markets could sell off; if lower, they may celebrate with a rally.

Otherwise, the week kicks off with the Investment Movement Index, which will get little attention, but is worth watching. The IMX is a behavior-based index assembled by TD Ameritrade designed to measure what investors are actually doing. More on the IMX below.

Monday 01/09

  • 12:30 PM, The Investor Movement Index or IMX measures what investors are actually doing and how they are actually positioned in the markets. It accomplishes this by using data on the holdings/positions, trading activity, and other data from an anonymous sample of six million funded accounts. It reflects consumer retail portfolios. At its most basic level, the IMX can provide insight into whether investors are growing more bullish or bearish on equities.
  • 12:30 PM, the President of the Atlanta Fed, Raphael Bostic, will be speaking. Any time a voting member of the FOMC is speaking publicly, there is the potential for insight into how that member may have adjusted their leaning on policy. Atlanta Fed events are often broadcast live on this YouTube channel.

Tuesday 01/10

  • 6:00 AM, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has been below the historical average of 98 for 11 months in a row. December’s consensus is 91.3 versus 91.9 and 91.3 in the past two reports. The index is a composite of 10 seasonally adjusted components based on the following questions: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect the economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.
  • 9:00 AM, Fed Chair Powell speaks at the Sveriges Riksbank International Symposium on Central Bank Independence in Stockholm, Sweden. It is not expected that micro discussions on current interest rate policy will surface in his conversation.

Wednesday 01/10

  • 7:00 AM, Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release numbers on mortgage applications. There has been a steady decline in applications over the past seven months.

Thursday 01/11

  • 7:30 AM ET, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will be speaking. Any time a voting member of the FOMC is speaking publicly, there is the possibility of insight into how that member may have changed their leaning on policy.
  • 8:30 AM, the CPI number will be such a distracting focus this week that trading may actually be subdued earlier in the week in anticipation of this inflation report. The consensus is for no monthly change in consumer prices. This would equate to a year-over-year rate of 6.6%.

Friday 01/12

  • 10:00 AM, Consumer Sentiment is expected to inch up to 60.0 in the first reading for January versus 59.7 in December.
  • 10:20 AM Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will be speaking. Any time a voting member of the FOMC is speaking publicly, there is the possibility of insight into how that member may have changed their leaning on policy.

What Else

Guess what, the stock market is closed again on Monday the 16th.  Below is a copy of the holidays along with Fed meetings and other important dates throughout the year. It was provided by the NYSE. Perhaps bookmark a link to this beginning of the year look forward so as to have on hand a snapshot of all of these market impactful dates.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.nyse.com/publicdocs/ICE_NYSE_2023_Yearly_Trading_Calendar.pdf?elqTrackId=16ec5f60c2d140d4babc3081b3d4cdd2&elq=00000000000000000000000000000000&elqaid=4274&elqat=2&elqCampaignId=&elqcst=272&elqcsid=1819

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

The Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, January Effect, Fed Focus

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Investors Watching for a Bounce in January

Have you become accustomed to a four-day workweek? Fortunately, we all will be slowly weened off of four days on and three days off. Next week (beginning January 8) is a full five-day trading week; then, we get another three-day weekend for MLK Jr. Day (January 16). This is followed by four weeks until President’s Day, which is a national holiday. So we should all acclimate to reality without shocking the system too much.

Stocks are far cheaper than they were at the start of last year. The current P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 18.59. A year ago, that stat stood at 29.33. The last time a year ended with P/Es this low was December 2018.

A popular new year stock market axiom is the January Effect. This suggests there is a tendency for stock prices to rise in the first month of the year following a year-end sell-off. With some light number crunching, it would seem there has actually been a slight upward bias in January, but it is barely higher than that of a coin toss. Market conditions and fundamentals are probably a better focus for traders and investors. On Wednesday, the FOMC minutes for the December FOMC will be released. This may have more impact on the market’s tone to begin the new year than any market axiom.

Monday 1/2

  • Markets and Government Offices closed.
  • The Kuna is out as Croatia’s currency, and the Euro is in. Croatia, which has been an EU member since 2013, becomes part of the eurozone to start 2023. The integration provides open borders within the Schengen visa-free zone and the adoption of the Euro as its national currency.

Tuesday 1/3

  • Treasuries that would have settled on the 31st, settle on this first business day since month end.
  • 9:45 AM, PMI Manufacturing Index for December is expected to come in unchanged from the mid-month report at 46.2. This reading would indicate a contraction in manufacturing.
  • 10:00 AM, Construction Spending is expected to report another weak number. After slipping 0.3 percent in October, construction spending in November is expected to fall 0.4 percent as residential building remains weak.

Wednesday 1/4

  • 10:00 AM, the JOLTS report, an indicator of job openings,  has shown declines since August. It is expected to show a reduction again to 10.1 million in November versus 10.3 million in October.
  • 10:00 AM, the ISM Manufacturing Index is likely to confirm slowing in the sector. After gradually decelerating through the year and then entering a sub-50 contraction in November at 49.0, the ISM manufacturing index for December is expected to print at 48.0, and show a worsening decline.
  • 2:00 PM, Federal Open Market Committee minutes for December. We know how this story ended; they pushed overnight rates up by 0.50%. But, the details of the issues, debates, and how much consensus there was among FOMC members three weeks later lends insight into whether the hawkish stance is fading or likely to increase. The minutes are a possible market mood changer as investors and fed watchers measure each word. The minutes will include the complete economic analysis compiled by Fed officials and opinions at odds with the consensus.

Thursday 1/5

  • 7:30 AM, The Challenger Job-Cut Report is not widely followed as it includes much of the same measures as the weekly Jobless Claims. It counts and categorizes announcements of corporate layoffs based on mass layoff data from state departments of labor. Unlike most economic data, this series is not adjusted for seasonal variations; holiday layoffs could create big changes in the reading. The prior level for November was 76.84.
  • 8:30 AM, Jobless Claims for the week ended December 31st are expected to creep up to 228,000 versus 225,000 the prior week. Any large variation from this expectation could be market moving as the fed closely watches the employment situation.
  • 9:20 AM, the President of the Atlanta Fed, Raphael Bostic, will be speaking. Any time a voting member of the FOMC is speaking publicly, there is the possibility of insight into how that member may have recently changed their leaning on policy. Atlanta Fed events are often broadcast live on this YouTube channel.
  • 4:30 PM, Fed’s Balance Sheet. This report has, in recent months, garnered more attention. This is because the weekly report of the Fed’s balance sheet provides details as to whether the pace of reductions ($95 billion monthly) is being adhered to. This represents the other tightening (QT) outlined in the current monetary policy. They are securities (treasuries and mortgaged-backed securities) that are maturing off the Fed’s balance sheet and not being replaced. This real money comes out of the economy and represents fewer dollars to hold longer-term interest rates down.

Friday 1/6

  • 8:30 AM, the Employment Situation is a very closely watched economic indicator. It provides measures that both include and exclude government workers. The expected 200,000 rise for nonfarm payroll growth in December is well below the 263,000 reported in November. For each of the last seven months, this report has exceeded the consensus of economists’ projections.
  • 10:00 AM, Factory Orders are a true leading indicator. They are expected to have fallen  0.6% in November.
  • 11:15 AM and 3:30 PM, the President of the Atlanta Fed, Raphael Bostic, will be speaking. Any time a voting member of the FOMC is speaking publicly, there is the possibility of insight into how that member may have changed their leaning on policy. Atlanta Fed events are often broadcast live on this YouTube channel.
  • 12:15 PM, the President of the Richmond Fed, Thomas Barkin, will be speaking. Any time a voting member of the FOMC is speaking publicly, there is the possibility of insight into how that member may have changed their leaning on policy.

What Else

We all have to grow accustomed to writing and typing “2023” this week. The residents of Croatia have a larger challenge, they have to convert all of their payments and transactions into euros.

The first half of the year will likely be a test of Fed Chair Jay Powell as all attention is being paid to whether monetary policy can be navigated in a way that provides for the Fed mandate of low inflation while at the same time maintaining an acceptable level of unemployment. Full employment is the Fed’s other mandate. Stock market performance usually hinges on how well the market thinks the Fed is navigating to calmer waters. December’s price action suggests room for improvement.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

The Week Ahead – Boxing Day Closes Some Markets on 27th

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Investors Watching for a “Santa Rally” the Last Trading Week of 2022

Stocks in the US closed higher Friday after consumer inflation continued to ease modestly, and consumer expectations are for the trend to continue. This could set the stage for the week ahead as some expect the probability of a “Santa rally” as investors may begin using their dry powder to wave in some stocks that have gone down with the crowd but are historically cheap and showing value.

Stock markets in London, Toronto, Sydney, Hong Kong, and Johannesburg are closed. on Tuesday, December 27, since Boxing Day was already a holiday since Christmas fell on a Sunday.  

The four-day trading week ahead includes the latest data on home prices with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index and Freddie Mac’s House Price Index (October). On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will issue pending home sales figures (November). The strength of the manufacturing sector on Friday, with the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December, has market-moving potential on the last trading day of the year.

Monday 12/26

  • Markets and Government Offices closed.

Tuesday 12/27

  • Stock markets in London, Toronto, Sydney, Hong Kong, and Johannesburg are closed.  
  • 8:30 AM ET, The US Goods Deficit (Census basis) is expected to narrow to $97.0 billion in November after deepening by more than $6 billion in October to $98.8 billion.
  • 8:30 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories, where buildups have been lessening, are expected to rise 0.4 percent in the advance report for November.
  • 9:00 AM ET, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, forecasters see the adjusted 20-city monthly rate falling 1.2 percent again in October after a decline of 1.2 percent in September for an unadjusted annual rate of 8.1 percent versus September’s 10.4 percent.

Wednesday 12/28

  • 10:AM ET, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, the manufacturing composite is expected at minus 6, in December vs. minus 9 in November and minus 10 in October.

Thursday 12/29

  • 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the December 29 week are expected to come in at 222,000 versus 216,000 in the prior week.

Friday 12/30

• 9:45 AM ET, The Chicago PMI is expected to bounce back in December to 41.0 versus November’s much weaker-than-expected 37.2.

  • The Bond markets are scheduled to close at 2 PM. Stocks have the benefit of a full trading day to close out 2022.

What Else

Replays of the Noble Capital Markets analysts’ discussions of companies they cover on Wall Street Wish List, are now available on Channelchek to help you create your own wish list for 2023. Find them here in Channelchek’s Video Content Library.   And if you haven’t signed up for regular emails from Channelchek now is a good time to sign-up and see how helpful they are

Happy New Year from the entire content team at Channelchek!

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-open-closed-today-hours-boxing-day-christmas-51671801332

https://www.aarp.org/money/investing/info-2022/stock-market-holidays.html#:~:text=The%20bond%20markets%20shut%20down,Friday%2C%20Dec.%2030).

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

The Week Ahead – Window Dressing, FedEx Earnings, and Consumer Confidence

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

The Holiday Weeks Ahead are Likely to Include Lighter Trading Volumes

End-of-year window dressing occurs when mutual funds and other managed money sell their losing stocks before December 31 to avoid sitting in front of trustees early in the new year and having these stocks still listed as holdings. This often has the effect of concentrating end-of-year selling in stocks that are already the worst performers over the ending year. These same stocks are then favored early in the new year. Keep in mind some of this money may temporarily move to the fixed-income markets. Volume for the next two holiday weeks is typically lighter than usual.

Speaking of bad-performing stocks, FedEx reports earnings on Tuesday, December 20 (4:30). If you recall, they last reported on September 15 and missed expected earnings. That earnings call caused the stock to move from $204 to $161 during the following trading session. FedEx earnings will be of particular interest for this reason and because it’s an early indicator of this holiday shopping season.

It’s a light week for economic numbers; those that have the strongest possibility of moving markets occur on Wednesday’s Consumer Confidence and Friday’s Durable Goods data. Friday is a regular trading day for the stock exchanges, the bond markets enjoy an early 2 PM close.

Monday 12/19

• 10:00 AM ET, the Housing Market Index is expected to show a 34, according to Econoday’s consensus numbers. This would halt the downward spiral of this measure. Last month the reading was 33.

Tuesday 12/20

• 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts and Permits are expected to be 1.4 million from the previous 1.425 million. Residential construction has been slowing and slowing significantly.

Wednesday 12/21

• 8:30 AM ET, The third-quarter current account deficit is expected to narrow to $225.0 versus the $251.1 billion reported in the second quarter. The current account is a quarterly measure of the U.S. international balance in goods and services trade as well as unilateral transfers.

• 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Confidence is expected to edge higher to a marginally less depressed 101.0 versus November’s 100.2. Trends in consumer attitudes and spending can be one of the most impactful influences on the stock market. This is because strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices.

Thursday 12/22

• 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) third estimate for the third quarter is not expected to change at all from the previous estimate of 2.9%. This is the final read from the third quarter, it indicates we were not in a recession and instead had better growth than the first two quarters.

Friday 12/23

• 8:30 AM ET, Forecasters expect Durable Goods Orders to fall 0.7 percent in November following a 1.1 percent rise in October. This is a true leading indicator as orders for durable goods show how active factories will be in the months to come as manufacturers fill those orders. The data not only provide insight to demand items such as refrigerators and cars but also business investments such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery, and computers. So it may also indicate how confident the industry is for a period into the future.

What Else

Were you able to watch the equity analysts from Noble Capital Markets discuss stocks within their areas of expertise on Wall Street Wish List aired last Thursday through Channelchek? A replay may become available this week for those that wish to rewatch or those that prefer to digest all the information in smaller bites. Those signed up for emails from Channelchek will be given a heads-up when this replay happens.

Happy Hanukkah, Merry Christmas, and peace to all from the entire content team at Channelchek!

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

The Week Ahead – Volatile Oil Prices, A Less Hawkish Fed, and U.S. Productivity

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Will Russia Make the EU an Acceptable Counter Offer?

On Sunday, OPEC+ voted to maintain the previous level of output. This is known in OPEC vernacular as a “rollover,” it will allow the group time to experience and assess the market impact of the price cap of $60 a barrel on Russian oil. The $60 EU price cap is scheduled to begin Monday, December 5th.

Otherwise, it will be a quiet week in terms of data and Fed governor speeches. After a flurry of talks out of Fed executives last week, mostly pointing to a tapering of increases, the Fed is now in a blackout period until after the December 13-14 meeting and announcement.

Monday 12/5

  • 9:45 AM ET, PMI Composite Final Consensus Outlook A little less contraction is the call for the PMI Service’s November final, at a consensus of 46.3 versus 46.1 at mid-month.
  • 10:00 AM ET, Factory Orders are seen rising to a 0.7 percent gain in October. This would follow a 0.4 percent gain in September. The upward adjustment is in part due to Durable Goods orders for October, which have already been released and are one of two major components of this report. Durable Goods rose 1.0 percent in the month, which was stronger than expected. Factory Orders are a true leading indicator of future economic activity.
  • 10:00 AM ET, ISM Services Industries has been slow, having reported 54.4 in October and expectations of 53.5 for November.

Tuesday 12/6

  • 8:30 AM ET, International Trade in Goods and Services, a deficit of $80.0 billion is expected in October for total goods and services, which would compare with a $73.3 billion deficit in September. Advance data on the goods side of October’s report showed a more than $7 billion deepening in the deficit.

Wednesday 12/7

  • 7:00 AM ET, MBA Mortgage Applications are expected to show that the composite index down 0.8%, the purchase index has gained 3.8%, and the refinance index is down 12.9%. The MBA compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction, along with related industries that are impacted by a changing housing market.
  • 8:30 AM ET, Productivity and Costs for third-quarter are expected to show non-farm productivity rising 0.4 percent versus a scant 0.3 percent annualized gain in the first estimate. Unit labor costs, which slowed from 8.9 percent in the second quarter to 3.5 percent in the first estimate for the third quarter, are expected to rise at a 3.3 percent rate in the second estimate.
  • 10:30 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status report. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.
  • 3:00 PM ET Consumer credit is expected to increase $27.3 billion in October versus a $25.0 billion increase in September. Changes in consumer credit indicate the state of consumer finances and signal future spending patterns. The report includes credit cards, vehicle loans, and student loans; mortgages are not included.
  • Productivity measures the growth of labor efficiency in producing the economy’s goods and services. Unit labor costs reflect the labor costs of producing each unit of output. Both are followed as indicators of future inflationary trends

Thursday 12/8

  • 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the December 3 week are expected to come in at a 228,000 four-week moving average, versus 225,000 in the prior week. Employment is one of the Fed’s mandates; as such, any number that significantly varies from consensus could alter the market’s thinking.
  • 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index was 50.2 in October; the ISM Manufacturing Index has been gradually slowing to nearly breakeven. November’s consensus is 49.9.
  • 10:00 AM ET, Construction spending is expected to fall 0.2 percent in October. This would be dramatic relative to September’s modest 0.2 percent gain.
  • 10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for the U.S. and five regions of the country. The level of inventories helps determine prices for natural gas products.
  • 4:30 PM ET, The Fed’s balance sheet is a weekly report presenting a consolidated balance sheet for all 12 Reserve Banks that lists factors supplying reserves into the banking system and factors absorbing reserves from the system. The report is officially named Factors Affecting Reserve Balances, otherwise known as the “H.4.1” report; investors have taken a recent interest in this weekly report as it shows if the Fed is on track with quantitative tightening plans.

Friday 12/9

  • 8:30 AM ET, Producer Price Index or PPI, after moderating in October, PPI is expected to rise 0.2 percent on the month in November and 7.2 percent on the year. These would compare with 0.2 and 8.0 percent in October, which were both lower than expected. When excluding food and energy, prices are expected to also rise 0.2 percent on the month and 5.9 percent on the year.
  • 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment is expected to remain unchanged at 56.8 after a rebound in November’s final report.
  • 10:00 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories (second estimate for October) is expected to be unchanged from the first estimate at 0.8%.

What Else

The focus until mid-month is likely to be how interest rate markets trade with a new sense that the Fed is slowing its tightening pace. Also in high focus this week, markets are expected to pay attention to how oil prices play out with the EU plan and perhaps a forthcoming Russian proposal.

Sources

https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-gathers-to-decide-output-with-russian-oil-price-cap-looming-11670116254

https://www.econoday.com/

The Week Ahead – Powell’s Address on Inflation & Economy, PCE, Beige Book

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Will the Fed Indicate an Altered Course This Week?

Economic numbers may take a back seat to Fed Chair Powell’s address on Wednesday and other regional Fed President addresses throughout the week.

The PCE, which is an inflation adjuster to GDP, is reported on the same day as the Fed Chair’s midweek address, the potential for volatility is high.  

Monday 11/28

  • 10:30 ET, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey, is expected to show general activity down 20.5 vs. down 19.4 the prior month. This would be the seventh straight reduction in manufacturing.
  • 12:00 ET, John Williams, the President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, will be speaking. Although the NY Fed President has only one vote on the Federal Open Market Committee deciding monetary policy, the NY Fed tends to have more sway as the NY Fed President assumes the role of second after Chair Powell in the level of power.

Tuesday 11/29

  • 9:00 AM ET, The FHFA House Price Index is expected to have fallen 1.2 percent in September after falling 0.7 percent in August and 0.6 percent in July. August marked the sharpest fall and first back-to-back fall in 11 years.
  • 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Confidence for November 2022 is expected to come in at 100 vs 102.5 in October. The report measures consumers’ assessments of the labor market, business activity, and consumers’ own financial conditions. This could be one of the more important numbers of the week as consumer expectations and behavior can lead stock market movements and play into overall expectations as consumer spending is two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

Wednesday 11/30

  • 8:30 AM ET, GDP this will be the second estimate of the third-quarter GDP. The consensus is 2.7 percent growth. The previous estimate for the same period came in at 2.6%. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is considered the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, is expected to show a rise of 1.5% for the month vs. the previous 1.4% monthly increase. The PCE component of GDP may get more attention than the GDP itself since it is considered a measure of inflation.
  • 8:30 AM ET, The U.S. Goods Deficit is expected to narrow by $1.3 billion to $90.6 billion in October after narrowing by more than $6 billion in September to $91.9 billion. Changes in the levels of imports and exports, along with netting the two (trade balance), are gauges of economic trends here and abroad. These trade figures can directly impact all financial markets; however, they do this in how they impact the valuation of the dollar.
  • 8:30 Wholesale Inventories are expected to be revised downward to 0.5%. This follows a build-up in inventories in September. A decline could suggest supply-chain difficulties are increasing.
  • 10:00 AM ET, JOLTS consensus is for job openings to fall 10.4 million vs. 10.7 million in September. This number will be focused on as the September number was at a level that caused some to question whether the economy still has job shortages.
  • 1:30 PM ET, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the subjects of inflation and economic outlook; this could very well be the most market-altering event of the week. Watch it live by clicking here.
  • 2:00 PM ET, Beige Book released. A look at how each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts are reporting economic activity in their regions is important in this is a source of information the FOMC uses to make their decisions.
  • 3:00 PM ET, Farm Prices month-over-month is expected to have declined by 0.2%. Year-over-year the inflation contributor is expected to have risen 21%.

Thursday 12/1

  • 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the November 27 week are expected to come in at 235,000 versus 240,000 in the prior week. Employment is one of the Fed’s mandates; as such, any number that significantly varies from consensus could alter the markets thinking.
  • 9:25 AM ET, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan is scheduled to give an address.
  • 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index was 50.2 in October; the ISM Manufacturing Index has been gradually slowing to nearly breakeven. November’s consensus is 49.9.
  • 10:00 AM ET, Construction spending is expected to fall 0.2 percent in October. This would be dramatic relative to September’s modest 0.2 percent gain.

Friday 12/2

  • 8:30 AM ET, The Employment Situation or Non-Farm Payroll is expected to rise by 200,000, which would compare with 261,000 as reported in October. October was the sixth straight month and eight of the last nine that payroll growth exceeded consensus. Average hourly earnings in November are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month for a year-over-year rate of 4.6; these would compare with 0.4 and 4.7 percent in October.

What Else

There are more rumblings about the Fed easing up on how rapidly it is braking to tame an inflationary economy. The Powell’s words and promises on Wednesday, taken alongside of the other Fed President addresses may confirm a turning point – a tapering of the tightening.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

www.econoday.com

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm

The Week Ahead – Inflation Data Worries and Election Outcome

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Federal Reserve President Speeches With Elections and CPI to Shape the Week’s Trading

Yes, the stock markets are open on Veterans Day (Friday). But bond trading, which the stock market has been more keenly focused on this year, will be taking the day off along with other U.S. government services. Equity traders can get a sense of interest rate sentiment on Friday by turning to the Chicago Board of Options and viewing tickers ZF=F (5 yr. USTN), ZN=F (10 yr. USTN), ZB=F (30 yr. USTB).

All markets are open on Election Day, and the outcome, as measured by House seats and Senate seats distributed among the major political parties, has the potential to be market-moving.

It’s a quiet week for economic numbers, except for Thursday, when the CPI report is released. This has the potential of changing those calling for a 50 bp hike at the next meeting to up their expectations or those still forecasting 75bp to lower their call. Certainly, the Fed governors will be watching this and all measures of inflation up to the December 14-15 meeting. There are a number of Fed governors speaking this week; this could alter the tone; however, the next meeting is far out into the future.

Election Day.

Monday 11/7

  • 3:00 PM ET the amount of consumer installment credit for September, including credit cards, auto loan, and student loans outstanding, indicate current consumer spending and borrowing patterns. The markets tend to ignore this number as we are already in November and this report measures September
  • 3:40  PM ET, the Federal Reserve Bank Presidents Mester (Cleveland) and Collins (Boston), will be speaking. Both are considered fairly hawkish.
  • 6:00 PM ET, the Federal Reserve Bank President Harkey (Philadelphia) will be speaking.

Tuesday 11/8

  • Election Day.
  • Meet the Management; Noble Capital Markets hosts Management of Entravision Communications (EVC) in West Palm Beach, FL. This is a no-cost-to-attend, in-person breakfast meeting with investors. If interested, click here.
  • Meet the Management, Noble Capital Markets hosts Management of Entravision Communications (EVC) in Boca Raton, FL. This is a no-cost-to-attend, in-person lunch meeting with investors. If interested, click here.

Wednesday 11/9

  • It can be expected that the newswires will be filled with Election Day outcomes and market-moving conjecture.
  • 7:00 AM ET Mortgage Applications. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) creates a statistic from several mortgage loan indexes. The Mortgage Applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. It’s considered a leading indicator and is especially important for single-family home sales and housing construction. Both are considered foundational in a strong economy.
  • 10 Year Treasury Note Auction is held in the middle of each month and settles on or around the 15th (depending on weekends). The yield is a benchmark for 30-year mortgages and has recently been noted by investment markets because it has been trading at a yield lower than shorter maturities. This inversion of the yield curve has some market players suggesting a recession is expected in the future. Any surprises at the auction will reverberate through the stock market.
  • 10:30 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status Report.
  • 11:00 AM ET, Federal Reserve President Barkin  (Philadelphia) speaks.
  • Meet the Management; Noble Capital Markets hosts Management of Entravision Communications (EVC) in Winter Park, FL. This is a no-cost-to-attend, in-person breakfast meeting with investors. If interested, click here.
  • Meet the Management; Noble Capital Markets hosts Management of Entravision Communications (EVC) in Orlando, FL. This is a no-cost-to-attend, in-person lunch meeting with investors. If interested, click here.

Thursday 11/10

  • 8:30 AM ET, U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the inflation indicator most widely broadcast. With inflation being a primary focus, this will be the big number coming out this week. The number represents a basket of goods considered typical for an urban consumer and is taken as the change in the cost of that basket of goods. A percentage is derived from the change. CPI is also reported with food and energy removed as it is considered that other non-economic factors influence these prices. The September report indicated CPI rose 0.4% for the month and 8.2% YOY. Expectations are for an increase to 0.7% for October and a YOY rate of 8.0%.
  • 8:30 AM ET U.S. Jobless Claims which represent the prior week’s employment are expected to have increased to 221,000 from 217,000. From jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight or how loose the job market is. If wage inflation takes hold, interest rates will likely rise, and bond and stock prices will fall. Remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.
  • 10:30 AM ET, EIA Natural Gas Status Report.

Friday 11/11

  • Veterans Day, the stock market is one, the futures markets are open, and the bond market and other U.S. government-related offices are closed.
  • 10 AM ET Consumer Sentiment, November (preliminary). This barometer, reported by the University of Michigan,  questions households each month on their assessment of current conditions and expectations of future conditions. This “preliminary” release is for the month of November and is expected to have fallen to 59.6 versus 59.9 last month.

What Else

It is a light week for economic releases and Fed governor addresses, but the election outcome and CPI have the potential to whip markets around.

We’re entering the holiday shopping season when there will be a number of measures that investors focus on that will give a hint as to how strong the consumer is in the current economy.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm

http://global-premium.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=global-premium

https://www.channelchek.com/news-channel/noble_on_the_road___noble_capital_markets_in_person_roadshow_series

https://www.econoday.com

The Week Ahead – Rate Hike, Unemployment, and Election Anxiety

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

What Other Than a Large Rate Hike Can Investors Expect this Week?

Another 75 basis point hike is expected on Wednesday after the November 1-2 FOMC meeting. The discussion that is expected to immediately follow is will the Federal Reserve slow or pause its tightening from there. Those answers can’t be certain as even the Fed hasn’t seen the economic numbers unfold that will lead to the next meeting and play a part in the decision.

Since March, the FOMC has raised rates a cumulative 300 basis points. If they move .75 percent this week, the fed funds target range will be 3.75%-4.00%. This range was last experienced after the January 2008 meeting.

In September’s  Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC forecast for the fed funds rate was 1.25 percent above the current level or .50 percent above what most expect we will have by the end of the week. The statement and remarks following the next FOMC meeting by Chairman Powell may suggest that the FOMC is going to slow down the upward movement in rates while they see if previous rate hikes have begun to have a slowing impact on the economic pace.

The second scheduled event with the most potential to impact markets is the October Employment Situation on Thursday.  

From there, all attention and talk may be on the elections next week, as they can have a powerful impact on market moves.

Monday 10/31

  • 9:45 am US Chicago Purchasing Managers Report (PMI). The consensus is 47.3. For September, this survey of business conditions in the Chicago area showed a collapse to 45.7. A small improvement is expected from the October Survey
  • 10:30 am Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey is expected to come in at -18.0. This would be the sixth straight negative reading. This survey tracks manufacturing in Texas; for September, the results were -17.2.
  • 3:00 pm US Farm Prices are expected to have come down during October by -1.8%, showing a year-over-year rate of 20% increase in farm prices. This is an important inflationary gauge as farm prices are a leading indicator of food price changes Consumer Price Index (CPI). There is a direct relationship between inflation and interest rates; markets can be influenced as interest rate expectations rise and fall.  

Tuesday 11/1

  • The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times a year in order to determine the near-term direction of monetary policy. The November meeting extends through November 2. After the meeting, typically at 2 pm, any change in monetary policy is announced.
  • 10:00 am US Construction Spending is expected to have fallen by -.5%. Construction spending fell 0.7 percent in August, which was the seventh straight lower-than-expected result, showing lower activity in this important economic sector.
  • 10:00 am JOLTS report consensus is 9.875 million. These reported job openings have been falling over several months; the previous month’s (August) openings reported were 10.05 million. The acronym JOLTS stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

Wednesday 11/2

  • Motor Vehicle Sales (US) are expected to have increased to 14.2 million from 13.5 million in September. The pattern of consumption is a direct influencer on company earnings and stock prices. Strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices.
  • 10:30 am EIA Petroleum Report shows crude inventory changes, as well as gasoline and other petroleum products. The Energy Information Administration provides this report weekly. During periods when inflation and fuel prices are a concern, the data in these reports can play a wider-than-normal role in influencing stock, bond, and of course, commodity price levels.
  • FOMC Announcement usually comes at 2:00 pm. The expectations had not changed since the last meeting when it became widely expected that the Federal Reserve would raise overnight lending rates at this meeting by 0.75%. A big focus will be on the policy statement following the meeting to sense at what pace removing accommodation will continue in the US.

Thursday 11/3

  • 8:30 am US Jobless Clams are expected to be 222,000 for the week ending October 29. The prior week they had been 217,000. Employment is one of the Feds’ primary concerns as it fights inflation which also tops the list.
  • 10:00 am US Factory orders are expected to have risen in September by 0.3%. The prior month this leading indicator of future economic activity was flat.
  • 10:30 am EIA Natural Gas weekly report will update the current stocks and storage as well as production information from five regions within the US.

Friday 11/4

  • 8:30 am, the Employment Situation report is released. It is expected to show an unemployment rate of 3.6%, or 210,000. The results of this survey have the potential to jar markets late in the week as one of the more important measures of a healthy economy (weak or overheated) is employment levels.

What Else

If the week brings more clarity from the Federal Reserve and likely next moves, investors may begin to focus on retail numbers as the calendar moves toward the shopping season.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm

http://global-premium.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=global-premium

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm