Tag: The GEO Group

The GEO Group (GEO) – Meetings With Management

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 31, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NDRS. We hosted GEO CEO Jose Gordo, CFO Brian Evans, and EVP Pablo Paez for two days of well attended investor meetings in Florida last week. In addition to the normal overview of the business, management provided some commentary on the early days of post Title 42.

Perspective. While news headlines made much noise about daily border crossings being below the pre-May 11th 10,000 daily level, the roughly 5,000 daily level would be a record level sans the pre-May 11th 10,000 number. And the 5,000/day level still translates into over 1.8 million people annually.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Solid First Quarter Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, April 26, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q23 Results. Revenue for the quarter came in at $608.2 million, up from $551.2 million a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $130.9 million, EPS was $0.19, and adjusted EPS $0.22. In the year ago period, GEO reported $125.2 million, $0.26, and $0.31, respectively. We had forecast $607 million, $128 million, $0.21, and $0.21, respectively.

ISAP the Sequential Delta. Electronic monitoring revenue declined to $132.6 million in 1Q23 down from $149.8 million in 4Q22, with the remaining businesses up $4.3 million sequentially. Notably, populations under the program have been relatively stable since the beginning of March. 


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – NYC NDRS

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, March 17, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NYC NDRS. On Tuesday, we hosted GEO CEO Jose Gordo and CFO Brian Evans for a series of investor meetings in New York City. Questions at the well attended meetings focused on the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) and the core ICE detention numbers.

ISAP. Yes, overall numbers for the program are down from the December highs but GEO’s guidance takes the trends into account and even at the low end of guidance, the Company will generate the second best ever annual adjusted EBITDA number. While the number of enrollees in the SmartLink program has declined 12.5% from the year-end program highs, as a percentage of the overall ISAP enrollees, the SmartLink program now represents 88.4%, up from 78.7% at year-end.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Tracking Gets Easier

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, March 09, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Tracking Device. Yesterday, a new five-year contract was awarded by Santa Clara County, CA to GEO’s subsidiary BI Inc. regarding the Company’s wrist-worn GPS tracking device, VeriWatch. It represents the first ever community corrections contract for the device. No financial details were given for the contract. We believe the contract presents a new opportunity for GEO, and we expect more attention towards the device as the year progresses. 

ATD Program. As we have noted, populations under the ATD program dropped in January to 324,554 at the end of the month from 376,031 at the start of the year. Uncertainty surrounding ATD populations drove the wide range of 2023 operating guidance from GEO’s management. Over the course of February, the decline slowed noticeably with populations at 293,167 as of February 25th, the latest data available.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Better Than Expected 4Q22 But What About 2023?

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, February 17, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q22 Results. The run of exceeding expectations continued in the fourth quarter. Revenue for the quarter came in at $620.7 million, up from $557.5 million a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $145.5 million, AFFO was $0.58 per diluted share, EPS was $0.28, and adjusted net income $0.34 per share. In the year ago period, GEO reported $124.1 million, $0.66, $(0.41), and $0.38, respectively. We had forecast $603 million, $133.5 million, $0.54, $0.25, and $0.23, respectively. GEO’s results highlight the resiliency of the business model, in our opinion.

Electronic Monitoring Driving 4Q Results. GEO’s electronic monitoring segment saw revenue jump 89.3% to $149.8 million in the quarter, with segment operating income rising 89.6% to $85.7 million. While electronic monitoring populations have declined since the turn of the year, we believe electronic monitoring will remain a key arrow in government’s quiver to manage undocumented populations given the success of these programs.  


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Expanding Health Services in Australia

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, January 11, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Contract. The GEO Group was awarded a contract from the Department of Justice and Community Safety in the State of Victoria for the delivery of primary health services across 13 public prisons. The contract will commence on July 1, 2023 and is expected to generate approximately $33 million in incremental annualized revenue for GEO. We view the new contract as a nice compliment to the existing operations.

A New (Old) Business. This is a return of GEO to a business previously conducted by the Company. The Company held this contract before being forced to spin off the unit once becoming a REIT. GEO already provides these services in the facilities it manages and the new contract is just an expansion to other non-managed facilities. There should not be any “learning curve,” in our view.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Stacking Up Another Solid Quarter

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, October 28, 2022

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

3Q22 Results. GEO once again posted solid operating results for 3Q22. Revenue for the quarter came in at $616.7 million, up from $557.3 million a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $136.2 million, AFFO was $0.60 per diluted share, EPS was $0.26, and adjusted net income $0.33 per share. In the year ago period, GEO reported $116.0 million, $0.65, $0.24, and $0.35, respectively. We had forecast $605 million, $132 million, $0.55, $0.35, and $0.35, respectively. GEO’s results highlight the resiliency of the business model, in our opinion.

BI Continues to Impress. GEO BI electronic monitoring subsidiary continues to show impressive growth. Segment 3Q22 revenue increased to $137 million up from $121.5 million in 2Q22. Through the first nine months of 2022, electronic monitoring and supervision revenue increased to $346.4 million, up from $278.9 million in all of 2021.


Get the Full Report

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Asset Sale Funds Additional Debt Repayment

Posted on by cpatches


Thursday, September 22, 2022

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Asset Sale. The GEO Group has sold its minority equity interest in the government-owned Ravenhall Correctional Centre in Australia for approximately $84.4 million in gross proceeds, or about $75 million after-tax. GEO, as part of a consortium, originally began developing the Ravenhall facility in late 2014, with the facility opened in late 2017.

Use of Proceeds. GEO will use the proceeds, along with available cash on hand, to repay all of the remaining $146.9 million outstanding principal of its Term Loan B and its Tranche 3 Term Loan, both due March 23, 2024. Along with the repayment of the 5.125% senior notes due 2023, GEI has now reduced outstanding debt maturing prior to 2026 to approximately $23 million, a significant accomplishment, in our view.


Get the Full Report

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – NYC NDRS

Posted on by cpatches


Monday, September 19, 2022

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NDRS. We hosted GEO CFO Brian Evans and EVP Pablo Paez for a series of investor meetings in NYC. The discussion revolved around the Company’s positive operating performance in a challenged market, the debt restructuring, and the BI business.

Operating Performance. As we have highlighted previously, The GEO Group has strung together some of its best operating performance ever over the past twelve months, even in the face of challenging market conditions due to government policy changes. Conditions, especially in the immigration sector, would suggest a continued positive operating environment for the Company. 


Get the Full Report

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Reducing Debt Further

Posted on by cpatches


Thursday, September 08, 2022

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Redemption of 5.125% 2023 Notes. The GEO Group has delivered a notice of redemption for all of the remaining $125.7 million in outstanding aggregate principal amount of its 5.125% Senior Notes due April 1, 2023. The redemption will occur on October 6, 2022 with the price equal to $1,000 per $1,000 original principal amount plus accrued interest. The Company should save roughly $6 million of annual interest expense.

Reduction in pre-2026 Debt. The redemption of the 2023 Notes reduces outstanding debt due prior to 2026 to approximately $170 million. With a goal of reducing net recourse debt by $200-$250 million annually, the Company should easily handle the $170 million of debt due prior to 2026.


Get the Full Report

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.