Tag: Security & Protection Services

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – New Contracts; Rising Populations

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, September 27, 2023

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Contract. CoreCivic signed a new management contract with Hinds County, Mississippi for up to 250 adult male pre-trial detainees at the Company’s 2,672-bed Tallahatchie County Correctional Facility. The initial contract term is for two years. CoreCivic remains in discussions with additional federal, state, and local government agencies to utilize capacity in numerous CoreCivic facilities.

Other Business. CoreCivic recently accepted approximately 160 additional residents from the state of Idaho under an existing contract at the Saguaro Correctional Facility in Arizona. The Company also recently signed contract extensions with the state of Vermont at the Tallahatchie facility, with ICE at the Elizabeth Detention Center in New Jersey, with the Texas Department of Criminal Justice for five residential reentry centers in Texas, and with the state of Montana at the Crossroads Correctional Center in Montana.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Second Quarter Results Released

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, August 10, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2Q23 Results. Revenue for the quarter came in at $593.9 million, up from $588.2 million a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $129.0 million, EPS was $0.20, and adjusted EPS $0.24. In the year ago period, GEO reported $132.3 million, $0.37, and $0.42, respectively. We had forecast $587 million, $124.1 million, $0.20, and $0.20, respectively.

ISAP? A key factor in 2H23 performance will be the number of participants under the ISAP program. Numbers have fallen for longer than management had originally expected but recent policy initiatives should result in participant stabilization, if not increases in 2H23. 


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Post Call Commentary and Updated Models

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, August 09, 2023

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

More ICE Funding? CoreCivic had a 45% increase in ICE populations from the ending of Title 42 through July 31, 2023. Further increases in populations will partly depend on funding. Already, DHS has reprogrammed existing funds and, reportedly, will seek $2 billion in supplemental funds to address shortfalls related to border security. The additional funds, if approved, are expected to fund detention spaces, alternative-to-detention tracking programs, and transportation work. Such an increase should benefit CoreCivic, in our view.

And More For Fiscal 2024? In late July, the Homeland Security bill for fiscal 2024 was approved by the full committee in the House. The bill provides $3.55 billion for custody operations, which is more than ever previously appropriated, to fund an average daily ICE detainee population of 41,500, a significant increase from the 34,000 level. While much negotiations remain to be had, such a funding increase would be a strong positive.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – 2Q23 In Line With Our Expectations

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, August 08, 2023

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2Q23 Results. Total revenue of $463.7 million, better than our $463.1 million estimate, and up from $456.7 million last year. Adjusted EBITDA of $72.1 million compared to $78.8 million last year and our $73.2 million projection. Net income of $14.8 million, or EPS of $0.13, compared to $10.6 million, or EPS of $0.09, last year. We had forecast net income of $14.4 million, or $0.13 per share.

ICE, ICE Baby. The expiration of COVID related regulations in May has resulted in a 45% increase in ICE populations at CoreCivic facilities through July 31st. We would anticipate ICE populations to increase further as the border situations remains volatile, although politics make predictions challenging.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Two Sides of a Coin

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, June 15, 2023

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Renewal. CoreCivic entered into a lease agreement with the Oklahoma Department of Corrections (ODOC) for the company-owned, 1,670-bed Davis Correctional Facility (DCF), which the Company currently operates under a management contract with ODOC that is currently scheduled to expire on June 30, 2023. The new lease agreement includes a base term commencing October 1, 2023, with a scheduled expiration date of June 30, 2029, and unlimited two-year renewal options.

But. While CoreCivic retained a client, it went from a management contract to a lease. Previously, under the May 2021 management contract terms, we estimate the facility was generating north of $30 million in annual revenue (assuming full occupancy), while the under the lease agreement this declines to $7.5 million. However, gross margins on Properties segment agreements run in the high 70% range, compared to gross margins in the low 20% range for Safety segment managed locations.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Meetings With Management

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 31, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NDRS. We hosted GEO CEO Jose Gordo, CFO Brian Evans, and EVP Pablo Paez for two days of well attended investor meetings in Florida last week. In addition to the normal overview of the business, management provided some commentary on the early days of post Title 42.

Perspective. While news headlines made much noise about daily border crossings being below the pre-May 11th 10,000 daily level, the roughly 5,000 daily level would be a record level sans the pre-May 11th 10,000 number. And the 5,000/day level still translates into over 1.8 million people annually.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – 1Q23 Post Call Commentary

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, May 08, 2023

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

May 11th. With Title 42 expected to end May 11th, CoreCivic is well positioned to capitalize on any increase in ICE detainee populations. The key unanswered question is if the Biden Administration will enforce existing immigration laws. Recent comments by Secretary of State Blinken and Secretary of Homeland Security Mayorkas suggests the federal government will, but it remains to be seen.

Well Positioned. CoreCivic is well positioned to assist the government with any additional demand for beds and services. The Company has “thousands” of beds at existing facilities that could be used and seven idle facilities that could be restarted. The Company has hired staff in anticipation of rising populations.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – First Look at 1Q23 Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 04, 2023

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q23 Results Below Expectations. Revenue totaled $458 million, up from $453 million a year ago, but below our $469 million projection. Consensus was $471 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $73.7 million, down from $80.8 million in 1Q22. We were at $76.4 million. CXW reported net income of $12.4 million, or $0.11/sh, compared to $19 million, or $0.16/sh last year and our $16.3 million, or $0.14/sh estimate. 

Labor, Arizona Remain Challenges. CoreCivic substantially completed the transition of inmate populations at the La Palma facility by the end of 2022, but continued to incur elevated operating expenses during the first quarter of 2023. This is due to ongoing efforts to attract and retain local staff at the facility, as well as other facilities to position the Company for the increased number of residents anticipated at facilities once the remaining occupancy restrictions attributable to COVID-19 are removed.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

The GEO Group (GEO) – Solid First Quarter Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, April 26, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q23 Results. Revenue for the quarter came in at $608.2 million, up from $551.2 million a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $130.9 million, EPS was $0.19, and adjusted EPS $0.22. In the year ago period, GEO reported $125.2 million, $0.26, and $0.31, respectively. We had forecast $607 million, $128 million, $0.21, and $0.21, respectively.

ISAP the Sequential Delta. Electronic monitoring revenue declined to $132.6 million in 1Q23 down from $149.8 million in 4Q22, with the remaining businesses up $4.3 million sequentially. Notably, populations under the program have been relatively stable since the beginning of March. 


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Loss of a Managed Contract

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, April 26, 2023

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Contract Loss. Yesterday, CoreCivic announced the State of Oklahoma will not renew the lease agreement for the company-owned, 2,400-bed North Fork Correctional Facility (NFCF) upon the lease expiration on June 30, 2023. According to the release, the State was facing staffing challenges at the NFCF that limited the facility’s utilization and were exacerbated by the difficult employment market since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The lease generated $12.2 million of revenue in 2022.

Competitive Pressure. CoreCivic also noted that since commencing the lease of the NFCF in 2016, other privately owned correctional capacity became available to the state of Oklahoma and impacted the competitive landscape for renewal of the Company’s lease agreement. We would note The GEO Group just announced a new lease contract with Oklahoma for its previously idle Great Plains facility. Great Plains is about 50 miles from Oklahoma City compared to about 130 miles for NFCF, which may make staffing less of an issue.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – NYC NDRS

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, March 17, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NYC NDRS. On Tuesday, we hosted GEO CEO Jose Gordo and CFO Brian Evans for a series of investor meetings in New York City. Questions at the well attended meetings focused on the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) and the core ICE detention numbers.

ISAP. Yes, overall numbers for the program are down from the December highs but GEO’s guidance takes the trends into account and even at the low end of guidance, the Company will generate the second best ever annual adjusted EBITDA number. While the number of enrollees in the SmartLink program has declined 12.5% from the year-end program highs, as a percentage of the overall ISAP enrollees, the SmartLink program now represents 88.4%, up from 78.7% at year-end.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Tracking Gets Easier

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, March 09, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Tracking Device. Yesterday, a new five-year contract was awarded by Santa Clara County, CA to GEO’s subsidiary BI Inc. regarding the Company’s wrist-worn GPS tracking device, VeriWatch. It represents the first ever community corrections contract for the device. No financial details were given for the contract. We believe the contract presents a new opportunity for GEO, and we expect more attention towards the device as the year progresses. 

ATD Program. As we have noted, populations under the ATD program dropped in January to 324,554 at the end of the month from 376,031 at the start of the year. Uncertainty surrounding ATD populations drove the wide range of 2023 operating guidance from GEO’s management. Over the course of February, the decline slowed noticeably with populations at 293,167 as of February 25th, the latest data available.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Better Than Expected 4Q22 But What About 2023?

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, February 17, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q22 Results. The run of exceeding expectations continued in the fourth quarter. Revenue for the quarter came in at $620.7 million, up from $557.5 million a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $145.5 million, AFFO was $0.58 per diluted share, EPS was $0.28, and adjusted net income $0.34 per share. In the year ago period, GEO reported $124.1 million, $0.66, $(0.41), and $0.38, respectively. We had forecast $603 million, $133.5 million, $0.54, $0.25, and $0.23, respectively. GEO’s results highlight the resiliency of the business model, in our opinion.

Electronic Monitoring Driving 4Q Results. GEO’s electronic monitoring segment saw revenue jump 89.3% to $149.8 million in the quarter, with segment operating income rising 89.6% to $85.7 million. While electronic monitoring populations have declined since the turn of the year, we believe electronic monitoring will remain a key arrow in government’s quiver to manage undocumented populations given the success of these programs.  


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.