Tag: Security & Protection Services

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Best Revenue in 18 Quarters

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, May 13, 2024

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

ICE Pops. After topping out at over 39,000 in late February, ICE detainee population fell to about 36,900 by quarter’s end, finally bottoming out in late April in the low 34,000 level before rising once again over the past few weeks. CoreCivic ICE pops followed a similar pattern ending last week at 10,310.

Margins. With higher populations across federal, state, and local partners, higher occupancy rates, normalizing staffing cost and inflation, and per diem increases, operating margin improved once again in 1Q24. We anticipate additional improvement in 2024. Safety segment operating margin rose 210bp to 23.5%, while Community segment operating margin rose 1,120bp to 27.7%.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – First Look at 1Q24 Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 09, 2024

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results. Total revenue was $500.7 million for the quarter compared to $458.0 million in the prior year. This exceeded our expectations of $478 million. All of CoreCivic’s segments experienced growth over the prior year due to higher populations at the federal, state, and local populations. Another driver was revenue from ICE increasing from the prior year, as last year had Title 42 still enacted. Net income was $9.5 million, or $0.08/sh, from $12.4 million, or $0.11, last year. We estimated net income of $21.7 million or $0.19 per diluted share. Adjusted EPS was $0.25 for 1Q24, excluding one-time costs associated with the debt refinancing.

Debt Refinancing Completed and Share Repurchases. CoreCivic completed its registered public debt offering of $500 million on March 12, 2024. The offering, in conjunction with the Company’s revolving credit facility, paid off CoreCivic’s senior unsecured notes due 2026. The Company repurchased 2.7 million shares of its common stock during the quarter at an aggregate purchase price of $39.4 million, or approximately $14.59 per share.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – First Quarter In-Line but Potential Upside for the Year

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 08, 2024

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q Results. Total revenues decreased to $605.7 million from $608.2 million last year. We estimated revenue of $604 million. Net income for the quarter was $22.7 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, compared to $28.0 million, or $0.22, in the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $117.6 million compared to $130.9 million last year. We estimated net income of $23.6 million, or $0.19 per share, and adjusted EBITDA of $120 million.

ICE Populations. For 1Q24, GEO experienced average ICE pops in the 13,000 range, with that number carrying over into the second quarter. After a dip beginning in late March, overall ICE pops have rebounded back to the 37,000 level, according to GEO management. With the typical seasonal increase in crossings, it is possible numbers could trend up to the 41,500 bed authorized level.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – New Debt Priced; Raising PT to $17

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, April 08, 2024

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Upsized and Pricing. The GEO Group announced a private offering of $1.275 billion of senior notes, comprised of $650 million 8.625% notes due 2029 and $650 million 10.25% notes due 2031. GEO had originally sought to raise $1.2 billion. The Company also announced a new $450 million Term Loan B bearing interest at SOFR plus 5.25%. Net proceeds are anticipated to be $1.67 billion.

6.50% Convertible Notes. The Company also announced it is exchanging $177 million principal amount of its 6.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2026, representing about 77% of the outstanding principal amount. GEO will pay cash and common stock for the estimated $305 million market value of the Notes, with the cash portion expected to be $177 million. At the current stock price, the remaining $128 million of principal amount would be exchanged for approximately 9.1 million GEO shares.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Proposed Refinancing

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, April 04, 2024

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Proposed Refinancing. The GEO Group is proposing to issue $1.2 billion of senior notes, comprised of $700 million of senior secured notes due 2029 and $500 million of senior unsecured notes due 2031 in a private offering. The Company also is seeking a new $400 million Term Loan B under a new senior secured credit facility.

Use of Proceeds. The proceeds will be used to refinance approximately  $1.5 billion of existing indebtedness, including to fund the repurchase, redemption or other discharge of the Company’s existing Tranche 1 Term Loan and Tranche 2 Term Loan under its existing senior credit facility, the 9.50% senior second lien secured notes, the 10.50% senior second lien secured notes, and the 6.00% senior notes due 2026. Other uses are to pay debt related transaction fees and expenses and for general corporate purposes.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – An Expanded Contract

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, March 13, 2024

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Air Support. GEO’s wholly-owned subsidiary, GEO Transport, Inc. (“GTI”) has been awarded a five-year contract, inclusive of option periods, to provide air operations support services on behalf of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. GTI will act as a subcontractor to CSI Aviation, Inc., which has been selected by ICE as the prime contractor.

Details. The new five-year contract is expected to generate approximately $25 million in annualized revenues for GEO. GTI first began providing air operations support services to ICE as a subcontractor to CSI Aviation under a nine-month emergency contract starting in July of 2023. The original July emergency contract to provide air operations support for ICE was expected to generate up to approximately $16 million in revenues over a 9-month period.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Terming Out Some Debt

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, March 06, 2024

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Debt Offering. Last night after market close, CoreCivic announced an offering of $500 million aggregate principal amount of 8.25% senior notes due 2029. The aggregate principal amount of the Notes to be issued in the offering was increased to $500 million from the previously announced $450 million. The aggregate net proceeds from the sale of the Notes are expected to be approximately $490.3 million.

Uses. CoreCivic intends to use the net proceeds, together with borrowings under the Company’s revolving credit facility and cash on hand, to fund the concurrent cash tender offer for any and all of the $593.1 million outstanding aggregate principal amount of 2026 Notes. Any remaining funds will be used to redeem 2026 Notes that remain outstanding thereafter. With excess cash on hand, the Company could pay most of the remaining principal with cash, modestly tapping into the revolver.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Ending the 2023 Fiscal Year on a Good Note

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, February 16, 2024

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q23 Results. Revenue for the quarter came in at $608.3 million, compared to $620.7 million a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $129 million, EPS was $0.21, and adjusted EPS $0.29. In the year ago period, GEO reported $145.5 million, $0.28, and $0.34, respectively. We had forecast $600 million, $119.5 million, $0.19, and $0.19, respectively.

Debt Reduction. For the full year, GEO reduced net debt by some $197 million, ending the year with approximately $1.8 billion of net debt. We expect the Company to continue to reduce net debt by $175-$200 million annually.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Raising Price Target to $17, Post Call Commentary

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, February 12, 2024

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

ICE Pops — Where Do We Go From Here? ICE detainee population grew to 38,498 at the end of January, up from 36,845 at the end of the Federal government fiscal year. But CR funding remains at 34,000 beds. With the CR ending March 8th, it is unclear if a budget will pass and where funding will end up. The recent Senate discussions had suggested a 50,000 bed level, but it is unclear where negotiations go from here. CoreCivic ICE pops were down modestly to a current 11,334 from 11,800 in November, reflecting normal seasonality.

Margins. With higher populations across federal, state, and local partners, higher occupancy rates, normalizing staffing cost and inflation, and per diem increase, operating margin improved in 4Q23. We anticipate additional improvement in 2024. Notably, the Community segment operating margin rose to 33.4% in the quarter, up from 22.2% last year.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – A Fourth Quarter Beat

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, February 08, 2024

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results. Fourth quarter revenue totaled $491.2 million, up from $471.4 million last year and in-line with our $495 million projection. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $90 million, compared to $87.7 million last year and our $82 million estimate. CXW reported adjusted net income of $26.4 million and adjusted EPS of $0.23, beating our estimates of $17.5 million and $0.18, respectively, and improving from $25 million and $0.22 last year.

Strong Business Momentum. The better than expected results were driven by ongoing population and resulting occupancy increases. CoreCivic ended the year at 74% occupancy, the highest quarterly level since 2Q20. Labor availability and wage inflation are normalizing, resulting in improving margins. We expect these trends to continue in 2024.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Extension of Credit Facility

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, December 18, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Amendment to Facility. Last week, GEO announced the Company closed on a Refinancing Revolving Credit Commitments Amendment to its Credit Agreement dated August 19, 2022. The amendment provides the refinancing of all of GEO’s outstanding revolving credit facility commitments.

Terms of the Amendment. The amendment provides for approximately $265 million in refinancing revolving credit commitments maturing on March 23, 2027. Prior to the amendment, a portion of the Company’s revolving credit commitments matured on May 17, 2024. The interest rate on outstanding revolving credit loans are determined with reference to the Company’s total leverage ratio. As of the release, the rate is a SOFR based rate (or roughly 5.31% as of December 15, 2023) plus 3.00% per annum. The Company currently has no outstanding borrowings under its revolving credit facility, as amended.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – NobleCon19 Presentation Notes

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, December 14, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon19. The GEO Group CFO Brian Evans presented at NobleCon19. Highlights included the ongoing rise in detainee populations, the continuing challenges of aging facilities and staffing for state correctional agencies, and GEO’s debt reduction efforts. A rebroadcast is available at https://www.channelchek.com/videos/the-geo-group-noblecon19-replay.

Populations. ICE populations move upward and, with recent requests for additional beds, GEO should see incremental benefit, in our view. Border crossings are not slowing to any significant degree, suggesting the the need for additional private sector beds could have a longer tail than expected.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Senior Leadership Shuffle

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, December 01, 2023

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New CEO. Yesterday, GEO announced Brian Evans, who has been with the Company for 23 years and has served as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer for 14 years, has been appointed Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2024. Current CEO Jose Gordo is transitioning to an advisor role, by mutual agreement. Given Mr. Evans’ familiarity with GEO and his strong performance as CFO, we believe this is a strong choice for the Company.

Zoley Term. Company founder and Executive Chairman George Zoley will step down as Executive Chairman as of June 30, 2026, the end of his current employment term. Mr. Zoley then will transition into the role as an advisor to the Company, while continuing to serve as the Company’s non-Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.