The GEO Group (GEO) – An Investor Day Full of Opportunity; Raising PT to $35


Monday, March 24, 2025

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Investor Day. The GEO Group hosted an investor day at the end of last week, during which the Company outlined the substantial growth opportunities available under the new programs to manage undocumented migrants, as well as its goal to both significantly reduce debt and return capital to shareholders.

Secure Facilities. There is an immediate need from ICE for additional detention capacity. This is illustrated by the new contract for GEO’s 1,800 bed North Lake Facility announced last Thursday. This new contract will add $70 million of annualized revenue. Management estimates currently unused bed capacity (including the three facilities recently contracted by ICE) could add $575-$625 million to revenue.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – South Texas to Resume Operations


Thursday, March 06, 2025

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

South Texas to Resume. Yesterday, CoreCivic announced a new intergovernmental agreement to resume operations at the 2,400-bed South Texas Family Residential Center in Dilley, Texas, for ICE. CoreCivic has entered into a new lease agreement with Target Hospitality, the owner of the facility, over period concurrent with the ICE agreement. We view this a further confirmation of the Federal government’s need for additional bed capacity in the drive to deport undocumented migrants.

Details. The amended IGSA expires in March 2030 and may be further extended through bilateral modification. The agreement provides for a fixed monthly payment in accordance with a graduated schedule to correlate with the activation of each neighborhood within the facility. Once fully activated, total annual revenue is expected to be approximately $180 million, including medical services. With the Company having already started pre-activation activities earlier this year, we expect this award to be accretive to earnings beginning in the second quarter of 2025.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Upgrading to Outperform with $32 PT


Wednesday, March 05, 2025

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Upgrading to Outperform. We are upgrading GEO shares to Outperform with a $32 near-term price target. We believe there is substantial opportunity just in filling existing beds under current contracts, with the opening of currently idle facilities, new facilities, and expansion of the ISAP program providing additional upside.

Opportunity. GEO has an additional 17,000 beds to provide for ICE detention requirements, which would increase GEO’s overall bed capacity for ICE to about 32,000 beds. The incremental 17,000 beds includes approximately 9,400 beds in current idle facilities that will be reconfigured for detention use and approximately 7,700 incremental beds available at existing GEO serviced ICE and U.S. Marshal’s facilities under contract. Management estimates the utilization of these additional 17,000 beds could generate between $500 million and $600 million in incremental annualized revenues, with margins consistent with secure services owned facilities which average 25% to 30%.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CoreCivic, Inc.) – Raising to Outperform with $25 PT


Wednesday, February 12, 2025

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Opportunity, Opportunity, Opportunity. With the change in Administration and new Congress, CoreCivic is anticipating significant growth opportunities, possibly the most significant growth in the Company’s history, over the next several years. We believe the Company is exceptionally well positioned operationally and financially to meet this expected sharp increase in demand for its services.

Potential. Management has put forth a proposal to ICE for 28,000 beds. If accepted, such a proposal could be worth about $1.5 billion in revenue. Just adding in approximately 15,000 beds from existing idle facilities and the South Texas facility could add $750-$800 million of revenue and some $200-$275 million of adjusted EBITDA. Current proposals by the Administration and Congress support such growth, although funding will be key.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – A Solid End to 2024


Tuesday, February 11, 2025

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Solid End to the Year. CoreCivic posted solid 4Q24 results, especially given the facility closures from earlier in the year. Results for the quarter surpassed internal as well as consensus estimates, resulting from both cost management initiatives and increased occupancy, which reached 75.5% of available capacity, the Company’s highest level since the first quarter of 2020.

4Q24 Results. Revenue of $479.3 million compared to $491.2 million in 4Q24. We were at $463 million, and the consensus was $465 million. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $74.2 million compared to $90 million in 4Q24. We were at $65.2 million, and the consensus was $66.3 million. Adjusted diluted EPS of $0.16, versus $0.23 last year. We and consensus were at $0.10.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

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Release – The GEO Group Announces Date for Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Release and Conference Call

Research News and Market Data on GEO

  • Earnings Release Scheduled for Thursday, February 27, 2025 Before the Market Opens
  • Conference Call Scheduled for Thursday, February 27, 2025 at 11:00 AM (Eastern Time)

BOCA RATON, Fla.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Jan. 23, 2025– The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE:GEO) (“GEO”) will release its fourth quarter 2024 financial results on Thursday, February 27, 2025 before the market opens. GEO has scheduled a conference call and simultaneous webcast for 11:00 AM (Eastern Time) on Thursday, February 27, 2025.

Hosting the call for GEO will be George Zoley, Executive Chairman of the Board, J. David Donahue, Chief Executive Officer, Wayne Calabrese, President and Chief Operating Officer, and Mark Suchinski, Chief Financial Officer.

To participate in the teleconference, please contact one of the following numbers 5 minutes prior to the scheduled start time:

1-877-250-1553 (U.S.)
1-412-542-4145 (International)

In addition, a live audio webcast of the conference call may be accessed on the Webcasts section of GEO’s investor relations home page at investors.geogroup.com. A webcast replay will remain available on the website for one year.

A telephonic replay will also be available through March 6, 2025. The replay numbers are 1-877-344-7529 (U.S.) and 1-412-317-0088 (International). The passcode for the telephonic replay is 3882673. If you have any questions, please contact GEO at 1-866-301-4436.

Pablo E. Paez 1-866-301-4436
Executive Vice President, Corporate Relations

Source: The GEO Group, Inc.

Release – The GEO Group Announces $70 Million Investment in Expanding ICE Services Capabilities and New Corporate Reorganization

Research News and Market Data on GEO

BOCA RATON, Fla.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Dec. 16, 2024– The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) (“GEO” or the “Company”) announced today a $70 million investment in capital expenditures to strengthen the Company’s capabilities to deliver expanded detention capacity, secure transportation, and electronic monitoring services to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”). GEO is currently the largest service provider to ICE, currently providing approximately 21,000 detention beds (with a present census of 14,000) at 16 ICE Processing Centers with the ability to expand to a minimum of 32,000 beds at 23 facilities. GEO also presently provides electronic monitoring and case management services for approximately 185,000 participants under the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program, as well as secure ground transportation and air operations support services. With the objective of offsetting the $70 million investment in capital expenditures and further reducing debt, GEO intends to pursue the possible sale of several underperforming company-owned state correctional facilities.

In addition, GEO also announced several senior management changes. GEO’s Chief Executive Officer, Brian Evans, has given GEO notice of his retirement to pursue other opportunities, effective December 31, 2024. J. David Donahue will begin serving as the new Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2025. Mr. Donahue has more than 40 years of experience in corrections and detention, having served in senior executive roles overseeing operational planning, facility activations, and managing operational teams. He joined GEO as the Eastern Region Vice President in 2009, after a distinguished career in corrections with the Federal Bureau of Prisons, Kentucky, and Indiana, where he served as Corrections Commissioner from 2005 to 2008. He also served as the Vice President of the American Correctional Association (“ACA”) and is an ACA-Certified Corrections Executive. During his tenure with GEO, Mr. Donahue was promoted to Senior Vice President and President of GEO Secure Services in 2016 and retired from GEO in July of 2020.

GEO previously announced the appointment of Paul Laird as Senior Vice President of Secure Services, effective January 1, 2025, replacing James Black who will retire on December 31, 2024 as previously announced. Mr. Laird joined GEO in 2015 as Eastern Region Director of Operations and was subsequently promoted to Western Region Vice President and was most recently transferred to Eastern Region Vice President. Prior to joining GEO, he served as Regional Director of the Federal Bureau of Prisons, North Central Regional Office, overseeing 20 facilities. Prior to that assignment, he served five years as the Chief Operating Officer of Federal Prison Industries and as Assistant Director of the Industries, Educational and Vocational Training Division. He also served on the AbilityOne Commission as a Presidential Appointee representing the United States Department of Justice between 2005 and 2015.

GEO also announced the appointment of Daniel Ragsdale as Senior Vice President, Contract Administration and Compliance, effective January 1, 2025. Mr. Ragsdale joined GEO in 2017 as Executive Vice President, Contract Compliance, after a successful career at ICE, where he served as Deputy Director from 2012 to 2017. In that capacity, he served as Chief Operating Officer for ICE, leading 20,000 employees, including 7,000 criminal investigators at Homeland Security Investigations and 6,000 officers in Enforcement and Removal Operations. He also previously served as a Special Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Criminal Division of the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Arizona.

George C. Zoley, Executive Chairman of GEO, said, “We are pleased to welcome back David Donahue to GEO in his new role as Chief Executive Officer. His more than 40 years of experience in corrections and detention, coupled with his experience in operational planning, facility activations, and managing and overseeing operational teams will serve as an asset to our Company as we face the new and expanding opportunities ahead. We are also pleased to welcome Paul Laird and Dan Ragsdale to our Senior Management team. Mr. Laird’s operational experience and Mr. Ragsdale’s background in federal contract administration will continue to be important assets for our Company.

We are continuing to prepare for what we believe are potentially unprecedented future growth opportunities. We are making a $70 million investment in capital expenditures to strengthen our capabilities to deliver expanded detention capacity, secure transportation, and electronic monitoring and related services to ICE. We also intend to pursue the possible sale of several of our underperforming company-owned state correctional facilities with the objective of offsetting these capital investments and further reducing our overall debt.”

About The GEO Group

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 99 facilities totaling approximately 80,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Use of forward-looking statements

This news release may contain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements and any such forward-looking statements are qualified in their entirety by reference to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in GEO’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission including its Form 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this news release and are based on current expectations and involve a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. Readers are strongly encouraged to read the full cautionary statements and risk factors contained in GEO’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including those referenced above. GEO disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

Pablo E. Paez (866) 301 4436
Executive Vice President, Corporate Relations

Source: The GEO Group, Inc.

The GEO Group (GEO) – An Investment and a Leadership Change


Tuesday, December 17, 2024

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Ramping Up. The GEO Group announced a $70 million investment to expand the Company’s detention capacity, secure transportation, and electronic monitoring services to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”). Already the largest services provider to ICE, GEO is currently providing approximately 21,000 detention beds (with a present census of 14,000) at 16 ICE Processing Centers with the ability to expand to a minimum of 32,000 beds at 23 facilities.

Financing. To help offset the $70 million investment in capital expenditures and further reduce debt, GEO intends to pursue the possible sale of several underperforming company-owned state correctional facilities. Any potential sale of facilities will depend, at least partially, on valuation, but we view this positively.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Release – CoreCivic Announces Promotion of Patrick Swindle to President And Chief Operating Officer

Research News and Market Data on CXW

BRENTWOOD, Tenn., Dec. 16, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — CoreCivic, Inc. (NYSE: CXW) (“CoreCivic”) announced today that CoreCivic’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) has appointed Patrick Swindle, who currently serves as CoreCivic’s Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, to President and Chief Operating Officer, effective January 1, 2025.

Damon T. Hininger, who currently serves as CoreCivic’s Chief Executive Officer and President, will continue serving as CoreCivic’s Chief Executive Officer and as a member of the Board.

Mr. Hininger commented, “Patrick is an exceptional leader with a wide set of skills and talents and over the years has developed an in-depth knowledge of all aspects of our business, most recently having overseen the largest component of our business while serving as our Chief Operating Officer. Patrick has proven his ability to develop people and solve challenging problems, and I am confident that Patrick’s demonstrated abilities will serve us well as we enter a time period that we believe will have rapid growth.”

Mr. Swindle said, “I am humbled to be afforded this tremendous opportunity to serve as President and Chief Operating Officer of CoreCivic. I am honored to work alongside so many great professionals, and I look forward to helping our team to deliver our mission-critical services in a newly expanded role.”

Mr. Swindle joined CoreCivic in 2007 as Managing Director, Treasury and has held numerous positions, including Vice President, Strategic Development; Senior Vice President, Operations; and Executive Vice President and Chief Corrections Officer before promoting to Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Prior to joining CoreCivic, Mr. Swindle spent ten years in equity research in the equity capital markets divisions of SunTrust Equitable Securities, Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. and Avondale Partners, LLC. Mr. Swindle holds a bachelor’s degree in finance from Western Kentucky University.

About CoreCivic

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for more than 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

This press release includes forward-looking statements concerning executive leadership positions at CoreCivic and prospects of growth in CoreCivic’s business. These forward-looking statements may include such words as “anticipate,” “estimate,” “expect,” “project,” “plan,” “intend,” “believe,” “may,” “will,” “should,” “can have,” “likely,” and other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of the timing or nature of future operating or financial performance or other events. Such forward-looking statements may be affected by risks and uncertainties in CoreCivic’s business and market conditions. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the filings made from time to time by CoreCivic with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) and include the risk factors described in CoreCivic’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023, filed with the SEC on February 20, 2024. Except as required by applicable law, CoreCivic undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements made by it to reflect events or circumstances occurring after the date hereof or the occurrence of unanticipated events.

The GEO Group (GEO) – NobleCon20 Highlights


Thursday, December 12, 2024

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon20. The GEO Group CEO Brian Evans presented at NobleCon20. Highlights included potentially improving segment trends, an aging prison infrastructure, and reducing debt to be more flexible. A rebroadcast is available at https://www.channelchek.com/videos/the-geo-group-noblecon20-replay.

Segment Trends. With the new Trump administration approaching in January, management notes the administration’s immigration enforcement policies may positively impact its detention capacity, electronic monitoring, and secure transportation businesses. GEO remains poised to capitalize on any increase in detention and/or enhanced supervision with roughly 8,000 beds at existing facilities and 10,000 beds at six company-owned currently idle facilities. In addition, ISAP populations were roughly double today’s level two years ago.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Moving to Market Perform as Shares Skyrocket


Monday, November 11, 2024

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Below Expectations. The GEO Group reported third quarter 2024 results below management’s and our expectations. Results in the quarter were driven by lower-than-expected revenues in the Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment, reflecting reduced participant count. ICE populations have remained relatively flat over the past three quarters, although they are up y-o-y.

3Q24. GEO reported total revenues for the third quarter 2024 of $603.1 million compared to $602.8 million last year. We forecasted $612 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $118.6 million, flat with 3Q23. We were at $128 million. Net income for 3Q24 totaled $26.3 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, compared to $24.5 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, for 3Q23. Adjusted EPS was $0.21 per diluted share compared to $0.19 per diluted share for 3Q23. We had projected $0.25 and $0.26, respectively.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Another Solid Quarter


Friday, November 08, 2024

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

3Q24 Results. CoreCivic’s financial results for the third quarter of 2024 demonstrated the Company’s continued strong operating momentum. Increased occupancy and higher per diems drove the increased revenue in the quarter. While ICE populations were relatively stable in the quarter, management did note populations have increased by 5% since the beginning of October. Operating margin increased compared with the prior-year quarter through continued cost management and strong demand for CXW’s services.

Opportunity. Obviously, with the coming change in the President, most industry observers expect to see a step change in the use of services provided by the industry. There also is significant opportunity at the state and local levels being driven by increasing jail populations, forecasts for prison population’s to rise over the next five years, ongoing staffing issues, and an aging physical stock.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

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Release – The GEO Group Reports Third Quarter 2024 Results

Research News and Market Data on GEO

BOCA RATON, Fla.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Nov. 7, 2024– The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) (“GEO”), a leading provider of contracted support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry centers, as well as enhanced in-custody rehabilitation, post-release support, and electronic monitoring programs, reported today its financial results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2024.

Third Quarter 2024 Highlights

  • Total revenues of $603.1 million
  • Net Income Attributable to GEO of $0.19 per diluted share
  • Adjusted Net Income of $0.21 per diluted share
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $118.6 million

For the third quarter 2024, we reported net income attributable to GEO of $26.3 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, compared to net income attributable to GEO of $24.5 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, for the third quarter 2023. Third quarter 2024 results reflect costs associated with the extinguishment of debt of $2.9 million, pre-tax, $0.4 million in transaction fees, pre-tax, and $0.5 million in close-out expenses, pre-tax. Excluding the costs associated with the extinguishment of debt and other unusual and/or nonrecurring items, we reported adjusted net income for the third quarter 2024 of $29.1 million, or $0.21 per diluted share, compared to $23.6 million, or $0.19 per diluted share, for the third quarter 2023.

We reported total revenues for the third quarter 2024 of $603.1 million compared to $602.8 million for the third quarter 2023. We reported third quarter 2024 Adjusted EBITDA of $118.6 million, compared to $118.7 million for the third quarter 2023.

Third quarter 2024 results reflect lower-than-expected revenues in our Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment, primarily due to the decline in participant counts under the federal government’s Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (“ISAP”). Participant counts under ISAP averaged approximately 177,000 individuals during the third quarter 2024, compared to average ISAP participant counts of approximately 184,000 during the second quarter 2024.

George C. Zoley, Executive Chairman of GEO, said, “While our third quarter results were below our expectations due to lower-than-expected revenues in our Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment, we believe we have several potential sources of upside to our current quarterly run rate, with possible future growth opportunities across our diversified services platform. We have 18,000 available beds across contracted and idle secure services facilities, which if fully activated, would provide significant potential upside to our financial performance. We also believe we have the necessary resources to materially scale up the service levels in our ISAP and air and ground transportation contracts.”

“As we evaluate and pursue future growth opportunities, we remain focused on the disciplined allocation of capital to further reduce our debt, deleverage our balance sheet, and position our company to evaluate options to return capital to shareholders in the future,” Zoley added.

First Nine Months 2024 Highlights

  • Total revenues of $1.82 billion
  • Net Income Attributable to GEO of $0.11 per diluted share, reflects costs associated with the extinguishment of debt of $85.3 million, pre-tax
  • Adjusted Net Income of $0.63 per diluted share
  • Adjusted EBITDA of $355.5 million

For the first nine months of 2024, we reported net income attributable to GEO of $16.5 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, compared to net income attributable to GEO of $82.1 million, or $0.55 per diluted share, for the first nine months of 2023. Results for the first nine months of 2024 reflect costs associated with the extinguishment of debt of $85.3 million, pre-tax.

Excluding the costs associated with the extinguishment of debt and other unusual and/or nonrecurring items, we reported adjusted net income for the first nine months of 2024 of $82.8 million, or $0.63 per diluted share, compared to $79.8 million, or $0.65 per diluted share, for the first nine months of 2023.

We reported total revenues for the first nine months of 2024 of $1.82 billion compared to $1.80 billion for the first nine months of 2023. We reported Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2024 of $355.5 million, compared to $378.6 million for the first nine months of 2023.

Financial Guidance

Today, we updated our financial guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2024. While participant counts under ISAP have been increasing subsequent to the end of the third quarter 2024 to approximately 182,500 currently, and while it is possible ISAP participant counts and utilization of ICE processing center beds may further increase this year, we have updated our fourth quarter 2024 guidance to be largely consistent with our third quarter 2024 results. We expect fourth quarter 2024 Net Income Attributable to GEO to be in a range of $0.19 to $0.22 per diluted share on quarterly revenues of $600 million to $610 million. We expect fourth quarter 2024 Adjusted EBITDA to be in a range of $114 million to $124 million.

For the full year 2024, we expect Net Income Attributable to GEO to be in a range of $0.30 to $0.34 per diluted share, which reflects costs associated with the extinguishment of debt of $87 million, pre-tax. Excluding the costs associated with the extinguishment of debt and other unusual and/or nonrecurring items, we expect full year 2024 Adjusted Net Income to be in a range of $0.80 to $0.84 per diluted share, on annual revenues of approximately $2.42 billion and reflecting an effective tax rate of approximately 23 percent, inclusive of known discrete items. We expect our full year 2024 Adjusted EBITDA to be between $470 million and $480 million.

Recent Developments

On October 4, 2024, we announced that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) exercised the first five-year option period extending the contract for the GEO-owned 1,940-bed Adelanto ICE Processing Center in California (the “Adelanto Center”) through December 19, 2029. ICE and GEO entered into a 15-year contract on December 19, 2019, for the provision of secure residential housing and support care services at the Adelanto Center, consisting of a five-year base period followed by two five-year option periods. The Adelanto Center employs approximately 350 employees.

Balance Sheet

At the end of the third quarter 2024, our net debt totaled approximately $1.69 billion, and our net leverage was approximately 3.5 times Adjusted EBITDA. We ended the third quarter 2024 with approximately $71 million in cash and cash equivalents and approximately $280 million in total available liquidity.

Conference Call Information

We have scheduled a conference call and webcast for today at 11:00 AM (Eastern Time) to discuss our third quarter 2024 financial results as well as our outlook. The call-in number for the U.S. is 1-877-250-1553 and the international call-in number is 1-412-542-4145. In addition, a live audio webcast of the conference call may be accessed on the Webcasts section under the News, Events and Reports tab of GEO’s investor relations webpage at investors.geogroup.com. A replay of the webcast will be available on the website for one year. A telephonic replay of the conference call will be available through November 14, 2024, at 1-877-344-7529 (U.S.) and 1-412-317-0088 (International). The participant passcode for the telephonic replay is 7169822.

About The GEO Group

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 99 facilities totaling approximately 80,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Reconciliation Tables and Supplemental Information

GEO has made available Supplemental Information which contains reconciliation tables of Net Income Attributable to GEO to Adjusted Net Income, and Net Income to EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA, along with supplemental financial and operational information on GEO’s business and other important operating metrics. The reconciliation tables are also presented herein. Please see the section below titled “Note to Reconciliation Tables and Supplemental Disclosure – Important Information on GEO’s Non-GAAP Financial Measures” for information on how GEO defines these supplemental Non-GAAP financial measures and reconciles them to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. GEO’s Reconciliation Tables can be found herein and in GEO’s Supplemental Information available on GEO’s investor webpage at investors.geogroup.com.

Note to Reconciliation Tables and Supplemental Disclosure –
Important Information on GEO’s Non-GAAP Financial Measures

Adjusted Net Income, EBITDA, and Adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP financial measures that are presented as supplemental disclosures. GEO has presented herein certain forward-looking statements about GEO’s future financial performance that include non-GAAP financial measures, including Net Debt, Net Leverage, and Adjusted EBITDA. The determination of the amounts that are included or excluded from these non-GAAP financial measures is a matter of management judgment and depends upon, among other factors, the nature of the underlying expense or income amounts recognized in a given period.

While we have provided a high level reconciliation for the guidance ranges for full year 2024, we are unable to present a more detailed quantitative reconciliation of the forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable forward-looking GAAP financial measures because management cannot reliably predict all of the necessary components of such GAAP measures. The quantitative reconciliation of the forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures will be provided for completed annual and quarterly periods, as applicable, calculated in a consistent manner with the quantitative reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures previously reported for completed annual and quarterly periods.

Net Debt is defined as gross principal debt less cash from restricted subsidiaries. Net Leverage is defined as Net Debt divided by Adjusted EBITDA.

EBITDA is defined as net income adjusted by adding provisions/(benefit) for income tax, interest expense, net of interest income, and depreciation and amortization. Adjusted EBITDA is defined as EBITDA adjusted for (gain)/loss on asset divestitures/impairment, pre-tax, net loss attributable to non-controlling interests, stock-based compensation expenses, pre-tax, start-up expenses, pre-tax, ATM equity program expenses, pre-tax, transaction fees, pre-tax, close-out expenses, pre-tax, other non-cash revenue and expenses, pre-tax, and certain other adjustments as defined from time to time.

Given the nature of our business as a real estate owner and operator, we believe that EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are helpful to investors as measures of our operational performance because they provide an indication of our ability to incur and service debt, to satisfy general operating expenses, to make capital expenditures, and to fund other cash needs or reinvest cash into our business.

We believe that by removing the impact of our asset base (primarily depreciation and amortization) and excluding certain non-cash charges, amounts spent on interest and taxes, and certain other charges that are highly variable from year to year, EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA provide our investors with performance measures that reflect the impact to operations from trends in occupancy rates, per diem rates and operating costs, providing a perspective not immediately apparent from net income.

The adjustments we make to derive the non-GAAP measures of EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA exclude items which may cause short-term fluctuations in income from continuing operations and which we do not consider to be the fundamental attributes or primary drivers of our business plan and they do not affect our overall long-term operating performance.

EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA provide disclosure on the same basis as that used by our management and provide consistency in our financial reporting, facilitate internal and external comparisons of our historical operating performance and our business units and provide continuity to investors for comparability purposes.

Adjusted Net Income is defined as net income/(loss) attributable to GEO adjusted for certain items which by their nature are not comparable from period to period or that tend to obscure GEO’s actual operating performance, including for the periods presented (gain)/loss on asset divestitures/impairment, pre-tax, loss on the extinguishment of debt, pre-tax, start-up expenses, pre-tax, transaction fees, pre-tax, ATM equity program expenses, pre-tax, close-out expenses, pre-tax, discrete tax benefit, and tax effect of adjustments to net income attributable to GEO.

Safe-Harbor Statement

This press release contains forward-looking statements regarding future events and future performance of GEO that involve risks and uncertainties that could materially and adversely affect actual results, including statements regarding GEO’s financial guidance for the full year and fourth quarter of 2024, statements regarding GEO’s focus on reducing net debt, deleveraging its balance sheet, positioning itself to explore options to return capital to shareholders in the future, and pursuing a disciplined allocation of capital to enhance long-term value for shareholders, executing on GEO’s strategic priorities, pursuing quality growth opportunities, and the upside this could have on GEO’s quarterly run-rate, and GEO’s ability to scale up the delivery of diversified services to support the future needs of its government agency partners. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “will,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “seek,” “estimate,” or “continue” or the negative of such words and similar expressions. Risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to vary from current expectations and forward-looking statements contained in this press release include, but are not limited to: (1) GEO’s ability to meet its financial guidance for 2024 given the various risks to which its business is exposed; (2) GEO’s ability to deleverage and repay, refinance or otherwise address its debt maturities in an amount and on terms commercially acceptable to GEO, and on the timeline it expects or at all; (3) GEO’s ability to identify and successfully complete any potential sales of company-owned assets and businesses or potential acquisitions of assets or businesses on commercially advantageous terms on a timely basis, or at all; (4) changes in federal and state government policy, orders, directives, legislation and regulations that affect public-private partnerships with respect to secure, correctional and detention facilities, processing centers and reentry centers, including the timing and scope of implementation of President Biden’s Executive Order directing the U.S. Attorney General not to renew the U.S. Department of Justice contracts with privately operated criminal detention facilities; (5) changes in federal immigration policy; (6) public and political opposition to the use of public-private partnerships with respect to secure correctional and detention facilities, processing centers and reentry centers; (7) any continuing impact of the COVID-19 global pandemic on GEO and GEO’s ability to mitigate the risks associated with COVID-19; (8) GEO’s ability to sustain or improve company-wide occupancy rates at its facilities; (9) fluctuations in GEO’s operating results, including as a result of contract terminations, contract renegotiations, changes in occupancy levels and increases in GEO’s operating costs; (10) general economic and market conditions, including changes to governmental budgets and its impact on new contract terms, contract renewals, renegotiations, per diem rates, fixed payment provisions, and occupancy levels; (11) GEO’s ability to address inflationary pressures related to labor related expenses and other operating costs; (12) GEO’s ability to timely open facilities as planned, profitably manage such facilities and successfully integrate such facilities into GEO’s operations without substantial costs; (13) GEO’s ability to win management contracts for which it has submitted proposals and to retain existing management contracts; (14) risks associated with GEO’s ability to control operating costs associated with contract start-ups; (15) GEO’s ability to successfully pursue growth opportunities and continue to create shareholder value; (16) GEO’s ability to obtain financing or access the capital markets in the future on acceptable terms or at all; and (17) other factors contained in GEO’s Securities and Exchange Commission periodic filings, including its Form 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, many of which are difficult to predict and outside of GEO’s control.

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