October Retail Sales Exceed Expectations, September Spending Revised Upward

Key Points:
– October retail sales increased by 0.4%, surpassing economist expectations of 0.3%.
– September’s retail sales were revised significantly higher to 0.8%, showing stronger-than-expected consumer spending.
– While October data showed slower growth in some sectors, upward revisions to prior months suggest a strong consumption trend heading into Q4 2024.

The latest retail sales data for October has revealed a resilient U.S. consumer, with sales growing 0.4% from the previous month. This uptick exceeded economists’ expectations of a 0.3% rise, highlighting ongoing consumer confidence. Moreover, retail sales in September were revised upward significantly, from a previously reported 0.4% increase to a solid 0.8%, further indicating a stronger-than-anticipated spending trend in the U.S. economy.

According to the Census Bureau, the October increase in retail sales was largely driven by auto sales, which surged 1.6%. This surge in vehicle purchases, despite other sectors showing weaker growth, underlines the importance of the automotive sector to overall retail performance. However, excluding auto and gas sales, which are often volatile, the increase was more modest at just 0.1%. This was below the consensus estimate of a 0.3% rise, pointing to potential weaknesses in discretionary spending.

The October data, while showing signs of slower growth in certain areas, follows a pattern of upward revisions to previous months’ figures, suggesting a more positive overall trajectory for the economy. The September retail sales revisions revealed that both the total and ex-auto categories had grown by 1.2%, far surpassing the initial estimates of 0.7%. This data is crucial, as it points to stronger-than-expected consumer spending, which plays a vital role in supporting economic growth.

Economists are optimistic about the continued momentum in consumer spending, with many predicting another strong quarter for the U.S. economy as it heads into the final stretch of 2024. Capital Economics economist Bradley Saunders noted that the October slowdown in retail sales was somewhat overshadowed by the positive revisions for September, which suggested ongoing consumer strength. “Consumption growth is still going strong,” he commented, reflecting a generally optimistic outlook for the final quarter.

Kathy Bostjancic, Chief Economist at Nationwide, echoed this sentiment, stating that the October data suggested consumers were maintaining their upbeat spending habits as the year-end approached. This is seen as a positive indicator for the broader U.S. economy, suggesting that GDP growth will remain solid through the end of 2024.

This data arrives at a critical time for investors, as concerns over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy continue to loom large. While recent economic data, including October’s retail sales, have largely exceeded expectations, investors are keenly watching the Fed’s actions. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that the strength in the economy allows the central bank to take a more cautious approach in adjusting interest rates. There is ongoing debate about whether the Fed will make further rate cuts in 2024, especially as inflation remains a concern.

As the U.S. economy shows resilience, it remains to be seen whether consumers will maintain their spending habits amid possible economic uncertainties in the coming months. However, for now, the data points to continued growth and strength in retail sales, a crucial driver of overall economic health.

Fed’s Cautious Approach: Two Rate Cuts Expected in 2024 Despite Market Optimism

Key Points:
– Economists predict two Fed rate cuts in 2024, less than market expectations
– Resilient consumer demand and strong labor market support a cautious approach
– Inflation easing but not expected to reach 2% target until at least 2026

In a recent Reuters poll, economists have outlined a more conservative outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts compared to current market expectations. While financial markets are pricing in two to three rate reductions this year, a growing majority of economists anticipate only two cuts, scheduled for September and December 2024. This cautious stance reflects the complex interplay between easing inflation, robust consumer spending, and a resilient labor market.

The survey, conducted from July 17-23, revealed that over 80% of the 100 economists polled expect the first 25-basis-point cut to occur in September. This would bring the federal funds rate to the 5.00%-5.25% range. Nearly three-quarters of respondents predicted a second cut in December, maintaining this view for the past four months despite shifting market sentiments.

The rationale behind this conservative approach lies in the unexpected strength of the U.S. economy. June’s retail sales data surpassed expectations, indicating that consumer spending remains a powerful economic driver. Additionally, the unemployment rate, currently at 4.1%, is not projected to rise significantly. These factors suggest that the economy may not require as much monetary policy support as previously thought.

Inflation, while decelerating, continues to be a concern for policymakers. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to show only a slight decline to 2.5% in June from 2.6% in May. More importantly, economists don’t foresee inflation reaching the Fed’s 2% target until at least 2026, underscoring the persistent nature of price pressures.

The divergence between economist predictions and market expectations has notable implications. Recent market movements have seen stocks rise by around 2% and yields on 10-year Treasury notes fall by more than 25 basis points this month, reflecting optimism about potential rate cuts. However, the more measured outlook from economists suggests that market participants may need to temper their expectations.

Looking ahead, the Fed’s decision-making process will be heavily influenced by upcoming economic data. This week’s releases, including the second-quarter GDP growth rate and June’s PCE price index, will be crucial in shaping the economic landscape. Economists project Q2 GDP growth at an annualized rate of 2.0%, up from 1.4% in Q1, indicating continued economic expansion.

The long-term outlook suggests a gradual easing of monetary policy. Economists anticipate one rate cut per quarter through 2025, potentially bringing the federal funds rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range by the end of that year. This measured approach aligns with the Fed’s dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment.

It’s worth noting that the U.S. economy is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2024, surpassing the Fed’s estimated non-inflationary growth rate of 1.8%. This robust growth projection further supports the case for a cautious approach to rate cuts.

In conclusion, while the Federal Reserve has made progress in its fight against inflation, the path forward remains complex. The resilience of the U.S. consumer and labor market, coupled with stubborn inflationary pressures, necessitates a balanced approach to monetary policy. As we move through 2024, market participants and policymakers alike will need to closely monitor economic indicators to gauge the appropriate pace of monetary easing.