ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.
Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Updating estimates. While our 2023 earnings per unit estimate is unchanged at $5.90, we have made several adjustments in our model resulting in a modest reduction in EBITDA to $1.14 billion from $1.18 billion. Operating, depreciation, depletion and amortization, and general and administration expenses were increased, while net interest expense and income tax expense were lowered. Estimates for certain line items are now more aligned with management guidance.
Attractive total return potential. In our view, the stock price did not respond in line with the partnership’s outstanding fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results, along with the 40% increase in its quarterly cash distribution per unit to $0.70 or $2.80 on an annualized basis. The indicated distribution rate represents a 12.6% yield based on the recent closing price and an 8.75% yield based on our price target of $32 per unit implying total return potential of greater than 50%.
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Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Alberta projects are front and center. Boardwalk and Park Place are both district-scale lithium brine projects with significant potential for commercial development. LithiumBank established Canada’s first indicated mineral resource of lithium brine at its Boardwalk project and assayed wells up to 82.0 milligrams per liter lithium at Park Place. LithiumBank intends to complete a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for Boardwalk in the first quarter of 2023 and a preliminary feasibility study (PFS) in the second half of the year. At Park Place, a mineral resource estimate is expected in the first half of the year, followed by a PEA in the second half of 2023. LithiumBank expects to conduct detailed hydrogeological modeling and brine sampling at both Boardwalk and Park Place to expand and upgrade the classification of their lithium resources to measured and indicated categories.
Brine processing pilot plant. LithiumBank intends to further de-risk Boardwalk and Park Place by commissioning a brine processing pilot plant in the second half of 2023 to produce a concentrated lithium chloride solution. LithiumBank is working with several direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology providers to enhance recovery, lower power consumption, and reduce project capital expenditures. This work and subsequent reservoir sampling is expected to be incorporated into the Boardwalk PEA and Park Place resource estimate.
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ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.
Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Another stellar quarter. Alliance reported fourth quarter EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $293.9 million and $1.63, respectively, compared to $130.2 million and $0.40 during the prior year period. We had forecast net income and EPU of $272.8 million and $1.42. The partnership’s coal and oil & gas royalties segments performed stronger than expected due to higher volumes and commodity prices.
Updating estimates. We have increased our 2023 EBITDA and earnings per unit estimates to $1.18 billion and $5.90, respectively, from $1.12 billion and $5.85. Based on contracted coal sales volumes in 2023 and 2024, the outlook for cash flow growth appears favorable. Within the oil and gas royalty segment, volumes are expected to benefit from recent acquisitions, including the purchase of 2,682 net oil and gas royalty acres in the Permian Basin which is expected to close shortly with an effective date of January 1, 2023.
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Garibaldi Resources Corp. is an active Canadian-based junior exploration company focused on creating shareholder value through discoveries and strategic development of its assets in some of the most prolific mining regions in British Columbia and Mexico.
Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Enhancing financial flexibility. In December, Garibaldi closed the sale of 9,237,334 flow-through units at a price of C$0.30 per unit for gross proceeds of C$2,771,200. Each unit is comprised of one flow-through common share and one-half of one common share purchase warrant. Each whole warrant is exercisable at C$0.45 per common share for a period of three years. The company also sold 800,000 non-flow-through units at C$0.25 per unit for total proceeds of C$200,000. Each unit is comprised of one non-flow-through common share and one-half of one common share purchase warrant. Each whole warrant is exercisable at C$0.40 per common share for a period of three years. In December, Garibaldi sold a non-core British Columbia exploration and evaluation asset for C$400,000.
Looking ahead to 2023. Drilling in 2023 will test for mineralization associated with broad ZTEM low-resistivity anomalies identified by a property wide Geotech ZTEM survey. We think the 2023 drill program could commence as early as June or July and entail three to four holes at the E&L target, two holes of approximately 500 meters depth at the B1 target, and two holes at the Palm Springs property. Drilling at E&L will focus on areas within the ZTEM anomaly tested in 2022.
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Endeavour Silver is a mid-tier precious metals mining company that operates two high-grade, underground, silver-gold mines in Mexico. Endeavour is currently advancing the Terronera mine project towards a development decision, pending financing and final permits and exploring its portfolio of exploration and development projects in Mexico, Chile and the United States to facilitate its goal to become a premier senior silver producer. Our philosophy of corporate social integrity creates value for all stakeholders.
Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Full year production exceeds guidance. For the full year 2022, silver and gold production amounted to 5.9 million ounces and 37.5 thousand ounces, respectively, or 9.0 million ounces on a silver equivalent basis. Silver and gold ounces sold amounted to 6.5 million and 38.9 thousand ounces, respectively. Production exceeded the company’s guidance of 7.6 million to 8.0 million ounces on a silver equivalent basis. During the fourth quarter, the company reduced inventory to 525,485 ounces of silver and 1,512 ounces of gold bullion and 4,766 ounces of silver and 195 ounces of gold concentrate.
Updating estimates. We have increased our fourth quarter and full year 2022 EPS estimates to $0.07 and $0.10 from $0.03 and $0.06, respectively. Our revisions reflect greater than expected fourth quarter production and sales from inventory. We have increased our 2023 EPS and EBITDA estimates to $0.11 and $59.2 million, respectively, from $0.09 and $52.5 million based on modestly higher gold and silver prices.
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Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Eagle drilling program. In 2022, Maple Gold completed a total of 28 drill holes representing 13,823 meters of drilling at its 100%-controlled Eagle Mine property. Maple Gold released assay results from five follow-up holes that targeted northwest extensions of the main mine horizon and multiple sub-parallel gold horizons. Hole EM-22-015 returned seven discrete intercepts over a 120-meter interval, including 10.3 grams of gold per tonne over 7.8 meters in the North Mine Horizon.
Potential for a broader mineralized zone. Drill results appear to support Maple’s view that multiple sub-parallel gold horizons exist beyond what was historically mined at Eagle, along with expanding target areas along a broader mineralized corridor. Management believes a concentration of gold in excess of 10 grams per tonne begins near surface and extends down-plunge to Hole EM-22-015 intercepts along the North Mine Horizon in an area with limited drilling that represents just one of several follow-up targets that the company will pursue in 2023.
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Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
On the second hole at Tatasham. Drilling began at the Tatasham porphyry copper target in late November. Drilling is expected to continue through this month. Aurania is on the second hole at Tatasham and expects to drill three or four holes to test areas identified during the company’s Anaconda mapping program. Following Tatasham, the company anticipates drilling at the Awacha porphyry copper target.
Surprising outcome on the first hole. While no assays have been received from rock samples or drilling, the first hole intersected a zone of massive silicification framed by two fault zones which management believes may have acted as feeder systems. Interestingly, the alteration is more typical of a gold system rather than porphyry copper. Management thinks it is probable that an epithermal system may be on top of a porphyry and shallow drilling could expose the volcanic plumbing system in at least one location. The goal is to locate the zone where gold could no longer be transported in the geothermal waters and deposited in the veins somewhere below the siliceous sinter.
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Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures
Mining companies outperform the broader market. During the fourth quarter, mining companies (as measured by the XME) appreciated 17.2% compared to a gain of 7.1% for the S&P 500 index. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) and Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) ETFs were up 18.8% and 21.0%, respectively. Gold, silver, copper, and lead futures prices gained 9.2%, 26.3%, 12.3%, and 6.1%, respectively, while zinc declined 1.1%. For the full year 2022, all indices outperformed the S&P 500 which declined 19.4%. Despite aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and U.S. dollar strength, gold performed as a store of value with the price ending just under where it began the year.
Will precious metals break out to the upside? The U.S. Dollar Index declined 7.7% during the fourth quarter, while the yield on the 10-year treasury note increased from 3.80% to 3.88%. While the Federal Reserve has signaled higher rates, an inflection point may have been reached as investors sought to preserve value amid deteriorating economic conditions, geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility. In our view, interest rates could peak by mid-year with the potential for easing depending on economic conditions. We think precious metals prices around current levels are sufficient for mining companies to be profitable and attract new investment. Our outlook is for range-bound pricing around current levels with a modest upward bias in the first half of 2023.
Less certain near-term outlook for industrial metals. While the price of copper declined 13.2% in 2022, the price rebounded in the fourth quarter. On a full year basis, zinc and lead prices were down 6.1% and up 1.2%, respectively. While the long-term investment case for owning industrial metals mining companies remains favorable, it may be too early to offer a bullish call due to near-term concerns about economic growth in the U.S. and abroad.
Putting it all together. In our view, precious metals mining companies, notably exploration companies, continue to offer attractive return potential. Should gold and silver prices hold recent gains, investors may begin to invest more confidently and aggressively. While the near-term outlook for industrial metals could be negatively impacted by near-term macroeconomic factors, an eventual return to economic growth could result in strong prices due to potential supply and demand imbalances.
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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE
Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.” FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
WARNING
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RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Independence Of View All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.
Receipt of Compensation No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed in the public appearance and/or research report.
Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.
Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
A top pick for 2023. During our recent Wall Street Wish List virtual conference, we highlighted our top picks for 2023. Maple Gold Mines Ltd. earned its place based on several competitive advantages, including a large 400 square kilometer land package in a prime location within the highly ranked mining jurisdiction of Quebec, a growing gold resource with significant expansion potential, an experienced management team and industry-leading joint venture partner, and a strong balance sheet.
World class potential. We believe Maple Gold represents an emerging world class gold project in Quebec’s renowned Abitibi Gold Belt. The company is well capitalized and is focused on establishing a new gold district through resource expansion and new discoveries. Both the Douay and Joutel projects have multiple styles of mineralization, including deep controlling structures, which are favorable for exploration and discovery of mineralized systems. Mines in the Abitibi are known for vertical continuity with higher grades at depth. Consequently, there is significant potential to increase the average resource grade with higher grade discoveries at depth.
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ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.
Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
A top pick for 2023. During our recent Wall Street Wish List virtual conference, we highlighted our top picks for 2023. Alliance Resource Partners earned its place based on a superb management team, favorable fundamental outlook, and positive cash flow growth outlook. While fossil fuels are out of favor in some quarters, they power our economy. In our view, the geopolitical weaponizing of global energy supplies, along with the recent cold snap across the U.S. underscore the importance of reliable and affordable domestic supplies of coal, oil, and natural gas. Demand for fossils fuels will likely increase, with renewable energy increasing its share of the market share over time.
Earnings visibility is very strong. During the third quarter, Alliance executed new coal sales commitments for delivery of 5.6 million tons through 2025 at prices supporting higher margins. Based on contracted coal sales volumes in 2023 and 2024, the outlook for cash flow growth appears favorable. Alliance recently added a fifth continuous mining unit at its Gibson South mine and is adding another unit at the Hamilton mine. Within the oil and gas royalty segment, volumes are expected to benefit from two recent acquisitions that added 1,200 producing wells, 101 wells to be completed and 98 permitted locations on the acquired acreage.
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Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Private placement closed.Aurania closed the second and final tranche of its private placement of 4,244,598 units of the company for gross proceeds of approximately C$1.9 million. A total of 2,417,166 and 1,827,432 units were sold in the first and final tranches, respectively. In each case, units were priced at C$0.45 per unit and were comprised of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.75 per warrant share for up to 24 months following the date of issuance. Net proceeds will be used to fund drilling and exploration activities at the Lost Cities project, along with working capital needs.
Drilling continues at Tatasham. Drilling began at the Tatasham porphyry copper target in late November. Except for a brief holiday break, drilling is expected to continue through January 2023. The company expects to drill three or four holes at Tatasham to test areas identified during the company’s Anaconda mapping program. Following Tatasham, the company anticipates drilling at the Awacha porphyry copper target.
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Energy Fuels is a leading U.S.-based uranium mining company, supplying U3O8 to major nuclear utilities. Energy Fuels also produces vanadium from certain of its projects, as market conditions warrant, and is ramping up commercial-scale production of REE carbonate. Its corporate offices are in Lakewood, Colorado, near Denver, and all its assets and employees are in the United States. Energy Fuels holds three of America’s key uranium production centers: the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the Nichols Ranch in-situ recovery (“ISR”) Project in Wyoming, and the Alta Mesa ISR Project in Texas. The White Mesa Mill is the only conventional uranium mill operating in the U.S. today, has a licensed capacity of over 8 million pounds of U3O8 per year, has the ability to produce vanadium when market conditions warrant, as well as REE carbonate from various uranium-bearing ores. The Nichols Ranch ISR Project is on standby and has a licensed capacity of 2 million pounds of U3O8 per year. The Alta Mesa ISR Project is also on standby and has a licensed capacity of 1.5 million pounds of U3O8 per year. In addition to the above production facilities, Energy Fuels also has one of the largest NI 43-101 compliant uranium resource portfolios in the U.S. and several uranium and uranium/vanadium mining projects on standby and in various stages of permitting and development. The primary trading market for Energy Fuels’ common shares is the NYSE American under the trading symbol “UUUU,” and the Company’s common shares are also listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the trading symbol “EFR.” Energy Fuels’ website is www.energyfuels.com.
Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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The sales, along with recently signed utility contracts, will generate cash flow as UUUU starts up operations. Congress allocated $75 million to establish a national uranium security reserve in its 2020 budget. The US Energy Secretary indicated earlier that it expects to make four individual awards of 100,000-500,000 pounds of U3O8 for a total of 1 million pounds. Energy Fuels, as the largest licensed producer of uranium, was in a good position to receive one of the rewards. The UUUU announcement did not indicate a volume level. Peninsula Energy announced that it received an award for 300,000 pounds but did not specify a sales amount.
The sales can be done right away before mining operations are restarted. The conditions of the DOE award state that the uranium must be physically located at Honeywell’s conversion facilities in Metropolis, IL. Energy Fuels currently holds about 610,000 pounds of U3O8 at Metropolis worth more than $30 million at current uranium spot prices. A volume awards similar to that for Peninsula seems reasonable implying that the DOE is paying a price near $60/lb. or slightly above current spot prices, and be well within current inventory levels.
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Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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2022 exploration and drilling program. The 2022 exploration program focused on identifying new precious metal-rich volcanogenic massive sulphide (VMS) deposits, often found in district scale clusters, across the Consolidated Eskay project. Much of the focus was on defining the extent of VMS systems along the eastern and western limbs of the Eskay Anticline. Eskay Mining completed 29,500 meters of diamond drilling along the TV-Jeff corridor and along the Scarlet Ridge-Tarn Lake trend.
Assay results released. Eskay Mining released assay results for 42 holes drilled along the TV-Jeff corridor, including north of the Jeff deposit. Assays returned from holes completed in areas close to the TV deposit yielded significant intercepts of gold and silver mineralization. Wide-spaced drilling approximately 800 meters north of Jeff encountered a new zone of mineralization that yielded high-grade gold and silver values, some within longer intervals of lower grade mineralization. The company is awaiting assay results from maiden drilling in the Scarlet Valley-Tarn Lake area where several new VMS targets were drill tested in 2022.
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