Tag: LNG

Tourmaline Oil Corp Expands Montney Footprint with $1.3 Billion Crew Energy Acquisition

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Calgary-based Tourmaline Oil Corp (TSX: TOU) has announced its acquisition of Crew Energy Inc. in a significant move that’s set to reshape the Canadian natural gas landscape. This strategic buyout, valued at approximately $1.3 billion, marks a pivotal moment in Tourmaline’s Northeast British Columbia (NEBC) consolidation strategy and solidifies its position as a dominant player in the Montney formation.

The deal, expected to close in early October 2024, will see Tourmaline issue 18.778 million common shares and assume Crew’s net debt of about $240 million. This acquisition brings substantial assets into Tourmaline’s portfolio, including a low-decline production base of 29,000 to 30,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) and proved and probable (2P) reserves of 473.2 million boe.

One of the crown jewels in this acquisition is Crew’s extensive drilling inventory, featuring over 700 Tier 1 locations. This addition complements Tourmaline’s existing assets, potentially extending their Tier 1 inventory by four years based on a break-even natural gas price of $1.50/GJ.

Mike Rose, President & CEO of Tourmaline, expressed enthusiasm about the deal, stating, “Dale and his team at Crew have done a tremendous job over the past 21 years assembling one of the premier, concentrated Montney asset bases in NEBC, with significant upside.”

The acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to Tourmaline’s key financial metrics, adding over $200 million to the company’s anticipated 2025 free cash flow. Tourmaline has also identified synergies with a net present value exceeding $0.6 billion at a 10% discount rate before tax.

This move aligns with Tourmaline’s broader strategy to evolve into Canada’s largest and most efficient Montney producer. The company is already the largest Alberta Deep Basin producer, and this acquisition furthers its goal of reaching 750,000 boepd production over the next five years.

In conjunction with the acquisition news, Tourmaline announced an increase in its quarterly base dividend from $0.33 to $0.35 per share, effective Q3 2024. This represents a 6% increase and continues the company’s trend of rewarding shareholders.

The transaction has received unanimous approval from both companies’ boards of directors. It’s subject to customary closing conditions, including court, Crew shareholder, and regulatory approvals. Notably, Crew’s officers, directors, and certain shareholders, representing 32% of fully diluted shares outstanding, have agreed to vote in favor of the arrangement.

As the Canadian energy sector continues to evolve, this acquisition positions Tourmaline to capitalize on the anticipated growth in North American LNG business and the increasing demand for natural gas-powered electrical generation across the continent.

Woodside’s Gamble: A High-Stakes Bet on U.S. LNG

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Australia’s Woodside Energy has taken the energy sector by surprise, announcing its acquisition of Tellurian for $1.2 billion, staking its claim on the ambitious yet troubled Driftwood LNG project in Louisiana. This transaction marks a significant departure from Woodside’s traditionally conservative approach, signaling a dramatic shift in its global LNG strategy.

The Driftwood project, long considered one of the most challenging prospects in the U.S. LNG sector, has struggled to gain traction despite years of development efforts. Tellurian’s inability to secure long-term off-take agreements has been a persistent obstacle, leaving many industry analysts skeptical about the project’s viability. Woodside’s decision to take on this challenge represents a calculated risk that could potentially reshape the company’s position in the global energy market.

Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill has framed this acquisition as a strategic move to establish the company as an “LNG powerhouse.” However, this ambitious goal comes at a time when the energy industry is navigating complex transitions, with increasing pressure to reduce carbon emissions and pivot towards renewable sources. Woodside’s substantial investment in LNG infrastructure appears to run counter to these trends, raising questions about the long-term wisdom of such a commitment.

Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of this deal is Woodside’s proposed departure from the traditional U.S. LNG business model. Rather than adopting the typical tolling approach, where LNG facilities essentially function as processing units for natural gas, Woodside intends to implement a fully integrated strategy. This would encompass control from the wellhead to the final point of sale, potentially allowing for greater flexibility and profitability, but also introducing additional complexities and risks.

The timing of this acquisition is particularly noteworthy. With Europe actively diversifying its energy sources away from Russian gas and Asian demand for LNG continuing to grow, Woodside is positioning itself to capitalize on these market dynamics. However, the Driftwood project’s extended development timeline means that Woodside may miss out on the current favorable market conditions, potentially facing a different landscape upon project completion.

Woodside’s strategy to mitigate risk by bringing in partners and reducing its equity stake to around 50% is prudent, but may prove challenging. The project’s history of struggling to secure long-term commitments suggests that finding willing investors could be an uphill battle, even with Woodside’s involvement.

This transaction has the potential to be transformative for both Woodside and the broader LNG industry. If successful, it could catapult Woodside into the upper echelons of global LNG producers, surpassing even some of the oil and gas majors. However, the risks are substantial, and the execution of this strategy will be closely watched by industry observers and competitors alike.

Ultimately, Woodside’s acquisition of Tellurian and the Driftwood LNG project represents a high-stakes wager on the future of natural gas in the global energy mix. As the world grapples with the complexities of energy transition, Woodside’s bold move could either position them at the forefront of the LNG market or serve as a cautionary tale of misplaced optimism in a rapidly evolving industry.

As this ambitious project unfolds, it will undoubtedly provide valuable insights into the future direction of the LNG sector and the role of natural gas in the broader energy landscape. The industry will be watching closely to see if Woodside’s gambit pays off in this high-risk, high-reward venture.

Honeywell’s $1.81 Billion LNG Play: A Strategic Move in the Energy Transition

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a bold move that underscores its commitment to the energy transition, Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE: HON) announced on Wednesday its agreement to acquire Air Products’ (NYSE: APD) liquefied natural gas (LNG) process technology and equipment business for $1.81 billion in cash. This acquisition, Honeywell’s fourth in 2024, signals the industrial giant’s aggressive push into the burgeoning LNG market and its determination to position itself as a key player in the global energy landscape.

The deal comes at a time when LNG demand is surging, particularly in power generation and data center applications. According to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. LNG exports are projected to reach 12.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2024 and 14.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, up from a record 11.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2023. This growth trajectory presents a significant opportunity for Honeywell to capitalize on the increasing global appetite for cleaner energy sources.

By acquiring Air Products’ LNG unit, Honeywell gains access to cutting-edge technologies such as heat exchangers and cryogenic equipment, which complement its existing LNG pretreatment business. The addition of Air Products’ coil-wound heat exchangers, known for their efficient liquefaction capabilities and minimal space requirements, will enhance Honeywell’s competitive edge in both onshore and offshore LNG applications.

From an investor’s perspective, this acquisition aligns perfectly with Honeywell’s strategic focus on three “mega trends” identified by CEO Vimal Kapur: automation, the future of aviation, and energy transition. The LNG business acquisition squarely addresses the energy transition pillar, potentially opening up new revenue streams and market opportunities for the company.

Financially, the deal is expected to be accretive to Honeywell’s adjusted earnings per share in the first full year of ownership. Analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies estimates that the transaction could boost adjusted earnings by approximately 1% in 2025. Moreover, Honeywell anticipates growth opportunities in aftermarket services and digitalization through its Forge platform, which could further enhance the deal’s long-term value proposition.

The acquisition also demonstrates Honeywell’s commitment to growth through strategic M&A activity. With this latest deal, the company is on track to deploy around $15 billion in acquisitions in 2024 alone, a clear indication of its aggressive growth strategy and confidence in its ability to integrate and leverage new technologies and market positions.

For investors, Honeywell’s move into the LNG space offers exposure to a critical segment of the energy transition. As countries worldwide seek to reduce their carbon footprint while ensuring energy security, LNG is increasingly seen as a crucial “bridge fuel” in the shift from coal to renewables. Honeywell’s enhanced capabilities in LNG technology position it to benefit from this global trend.

However, investors should also consider the potential risks. The LNG market can be volatile, subject to geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in global energy demand. Additionally, the success of the acquisition will depend on Honeywell’s ability to effectively integrate Air Products’ LNG business and leverage its technologies across its existing customer base.

Honeywell’s $1.81 billion acquisition of Air Products’ LNG business represents a strategic bet on the future of energy. This move positions the company as a more comprehensive player in the LNG value chain, potentially opening up new revenue streams and market opportunities. For investors seeking exposure to the energy transition trend through a diversified industrial giant, this deal enhances Honeywell’s appeal. The company’s ability to integrate this acquisition effectively and leverage its new technologies across its existing customer base will be crucial to realizing the full value of this investment. As Honeywell continues to align itself with key technological and market trends, investors should closely monitor how this strategic move contributes to the company’s long-term growth trajectory and its role in shaping the evolving global energy landscape.

We’re in an Energy Crisis According to the IEA

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Steve Jurvetson (Flickr)

How Deep and How Long Will the Global Energy Crisis Last?

Are we in a global energy crisis? The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Dr. Fatih Birol, is sure of it. He referred to the global situation as a crisis on Tuesday (Oct. 25), speaking first at a conference, and later in an interview on CNBC. He explained that tighter markets for liquefied natural gas (LNG) worldwide and major oil producers cutting supply, have put the world in the middle of “the first truly global energy crisis.”

Our world has never witnessed an energy crisis with this depth and complexity,” according to the IEA head. He explained that until February 24, 2022, Russia was the number one fossil fuel exporter in the world. What has occurred since has been a major turn in oil and natural gas markets. Birol expects the volatility in oil and gas markets will continue throughout the world. When asked on CNBC Internaational if he thought it would be a prolonged war, he made clear that this is not his area of expertise; however, he believes there won’t be a “smooth transition into the next chapter for both oil and natural gas of the energy event.”

U.S. vs OPEC+

As it relates to the U.S. and OPEC being at odds, with OPEC managing toward supply-demand issues, and the U.S. being challenged by inflation, Birol says the two billion barrels cut by the oil-exporting nations is unprecedented. He believes it goes against their ambition to maximize profits as it works against economic growth in a world that is flirting with recession. He also pointed out it isn’t the U.S. that will experience hardship, rather, the emerging and developing countries will be hit hardest.

Image: Fatih Birol, IAEA Imagebank (November 2021)

On the same day, speaking at the Singapore International Energy Week, he shared that higher oil prices would push inflation higher and growth and production to shrink.

IEA projections show global oil consumption growing by 1.7 million barrels a day in 2023. Russian crude will be needed to bridge the gap between demand and supply, Birol said.

Russian Connection

The reduced Russian supply is a result of U.S. and the European Union’s decisions to place partial bans on Russian oil imports after Russia’s invasion of its neighboring country. The current proposed plan as the region heads into the heating season is to institute price caps on Russian resources. That would limit Moscow’s potential profits from oil exports while still allowing modest deliveries. Estimates are that these measures would leave space for between 80% and 90% of Russian oil to flow outside of the price cap. Birol expects this would help to make up for expected shortfalls. “I think this is good, because the world still needs Russian oil to flow into the market for now,” he said.

Oil Reserves

IEA members have built a stockpile of oil reserves that can be released if there’s a need to boost supply or temper prices, according to Birol. “We still have a huge amount of stocks to be released in case we see supply disruptions,” he said. “Currently, it is not on the agenda, but it can come anytime.”

The IEA head says that Europe will get through the winter if the weather remains mild, though somewhat battered. Birol said. “Unless we will have an extremely cold and long winter, unless there will be any surprises in terms of what we have seen, for example, Nord Stream pipeline explosion, Europe should go through this winter with some economic and social bruises.”

Take Away

The Executive Director of the IEA was in Singapore, speaking at a conference and giving media interviews. He did not sugarcoat his expectations. He expects oil and natural gas prices to remain volatile, and believes the emerging markets will be hurt most by OPECs cutting output. As for the upcoming winter, Birol says we are experiencing the worst global energy crisis in history, and it won’t resolve itself soon.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://bdnews24.com/business/7y637b19aj

https://www.iea.org/contributors/dr-fatih-birol

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-10-24/world-is-in-its-first-truly-global-energy-crisis-ieas-birol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZEYUXbcYzI