Key Points: – Weekly jobless claims rose to 222,000, staying within a stable range despite wider economic uncertainties. – The lack of layoffs is encouraging, but economists caution that the labor market appears frozen, with minimal hiring or quitting. – The Fed is likely to monitor labor dynamics closely as it weighs timing for potential rate cuts. |
The U.S. labor market continues to defy expectations of a slowdown—at least on the surface. Initial jobless claims edged up by 6,000 to 222,000 last week, according to data released Thursday by the Labor Department. The slight increase keeps new unemployment claims within the same stable range they’ve occupied for much of 2025, but behind the stability, some economists see signs that the labor market may be losing momentum.
The previous week’s claims were revised slightly upward to 216,000 from the originally reported 215,000. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected new claims to come in at 220,000. Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits—a key measure of longer-term joblessness—fell by 37,000 to 1.84 million for the week ending April 12.
Unadjusted claims, which reflect actual filings without seasonal factors, dropped 11,214 to 209,782. This continued moderation underscores the absence of widespread layoffs, offering some reassurance that the economy remains resilient.
Still, not everyone is convinced the labor market is in good shape. Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, notes that the real story may not be told through jobless claims alone. “We’re not seeing much churn in the labor market,” she said in a CNBC interview. “Workers aren’t quitting, and companies aren’t hiring or firing aggressively either.” This dynamic points to a labor market that’s frozen in place—a phenomenon that can precede softening in employment and wage growth.
Zentner warns that although jobless claims remain low, they no longer reflect a thriving, dynamic job market. Rather, they may be signaling stagnation. In a growing economy, labor turnover is typically higher, with workers moving between jobs and businesses actively competing for talent. The current stillness suggests that companies may be holding off on workforce expansion amid macroeconomic uncertainty, including ongoing tariff disruptions and high interest rates.
These subtle shifts are important as the Federal Reserve continues to evaluate the path of interest rates. With inflation pressures still lingering and mixed signals from consumer spending and business investment, the labor market’s performance will be a key factor in any future Fed decision to cut rates.
So far, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have adopted a wait-and-see approach, emphasizing the need for greater clarity before making policy changes. But if job growth begins to stall while inflation persists, the central bank could find itself walking a narrow tightrope.
For small-cap investors, the lack of hiring may dampen near-term enthusiasm, especially in sectors tied to consumer demand or reliant on workforce expansion. On the other hand, the stability in jobless claims may continue to offer support for companies that are weathering the rate environment with lean operations. With market sentiment currently driven by macro headlines, labor data like today’s report is becoming increasingly critical to gauge future equity trends.