Tag: Inflation

Consumer Prices Rise at Faster Pace in August

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.6% in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, quickening from the 0.2% rise seen in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest report. Over the past 12 months through August, headline CPI inflation stands at 3.7% before seasonal adjustment, up from 3.2% for the 12-month period ending in July.

The August monthly gain was primarily driven by a spike of 10.6% in the gasoline index. Gasoline was coming off a tamer 0.2% increase in July. Food prices also contributed to inflationary pressures, with the food at home index edging up 0.2% again last month. The food away from home index rose 0.3%.

Meanwhile, the energy index excluding gasoline picked up as well. Natural gas costs ticked up 0.1%, electricity prices rose 0.2%, and fuel oil prices surged 9.1%.

The core CPI, which removes volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.3% in August after a 0.2% gain in July. The shelter index has been a main driver of core inflation. It covers rental costs and owners’ equivalent rent, both of which have rapidly increased due to imbalances between housing supply and demand.

On an annual basis, the energy index has fallen 3.6%, as gasoline, natural gas and fuel oil costs are down over the past 12 months. However, the food and core indexes are up 4.3% and 4.3% year-over-year, respectively.

Within the core CPI, the main drivers have been shelter costs, up 7.3% over the last 12 months, along with auto insurance (+19.1%), recreation services (+3.5%), personal care (+5.8%) and new vehicles (+2.9%). Medical care services inflation has also accelerated to 6.6% over the past year.

Geographically, inflation varies significantly by region. The Northeast has seen 4.2% CPI inflation over the past year, the Midwest 3.9%, the South 3.7%, and the West just 2.9%. By city size, larger metropolitan areas over 1.5 million people have experienced 3.8% inflation, compared to 3.6% for mid-sized cities and 3.7% in smaller cities.

August’s monthly data shows inflation quickened after signs of cooling in July. While gasoline futures retreated in September, shelter inflation remains stubbornly high with no meaningful relief expected until mortgage rates decline substantially.

With core inflation running well above the Fed’s 2% target, further interest rate hikes are anticipated to combat still-high inflation. But the path to a soft economic landing appears increasingly narrow amid recession risks.

The next CPI update will be released in mid-October, shedding light on whether persistent pricing pressures are continuing to squeeze household budgets. For now, the August report shows inflation picking up steam after the prior month’s encouraging data.

Looking Ahead

Consumers may get temporary relief in the near term at the gas pump, as oil and gasoline futures prices pulled back in September following OPEC’s modest production cut.

Yet the larger concern remains the entrenched inflation in essentials like food, rent and medical care. Shelter inflation in particular has shown little sign of abating, as rental rates and housing prices remain disconnected from incomes.

Mortgage rates have soared above 6% in 2023 after starting the year around 3%. The sharp rise in financing costs continues to shut many homebuyers out of the market. Until mortgage rates meaningfully decline, shelter inflation is likely to persist.

And that will be challenging as long as the Fed keeps interest rates elevated. Monetary policy has lagged in responding to inflation, putting central bankers in catch-up mode. Further rate hikes are expected in the coming months absent a significant cooling in pricing pressures.

But the risks of the Fed overtightening and spurring a recession continue to intensify. The path to a soft landing for the economy is looking increasingly precarious.

For consumers, it means further inflationary pain is likely in store before a sustained moderation emerges. Budgets will remain pressured by pricier essentials, leaving less room for discretionary purchases.

While the monthly data will remain volatile, the overall trend points to stubborn inflation persisting through year-end. The Fed will be closely watching to see if their actions to date have slowed price gains enough. If not, consumers should prepare for more rate hikes and resulting economic uncertainty into 2024.

Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest Since February as Labor Market Holds Up

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell unexpectedly last week to the lowest level since mid-February, signaling the job market remains tight even as broader economic headwinds build.

Initial jobless claims declined by 13,000 to 216,000 in the week ended September 2, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That was below economist forecasts for a rise to 234,000 and marked the fourth straight week of declines.

Continuing claims, which track ongoing unemployment, also dropped to 1.679 million for the week ended August 26. That was the lowest point since mid-July.

The downward trend in both initial and continuing claims points to ongoing resilience in the labor market amid strong employer demand for workers.

There are some emerging signs of softness, however. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.8% in August as labor force participation increased. Job growth also moderated in the latest month, though remains healthy.

Worker productivity rebounded at a 3.5% annualized pace in the second quarter, the fastest rise since 2020. Moderating labor cost growth could also help the Federal Reserve combat high inflation.

While jobless claims remain near historic lows, economists will keep a close eye on any notable changes that could indicate potential layoffs, although the Federal Reserve has recently taken a more measured approach to rate hikes aimed at moderating economic demand.

Currently, the most recent data confirms a remarkably robust job market, despite concerns about inflation and slowing growth. This resilience provides hope that any potential economic downturn in the future might be less severe than previously anticipated.

Cathie Wood Believes the Fed is Playing Economic Jenga

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Ark Invest Warns of a Deflationary Ripple that Could Spread Around the Globe

Pricing, whether it be of the stock market, private placements, or other alternative investments is impacted by investor demand, and demand is the result of differing views. Cathie Wood, the Ark Investment Management CEO, has held the view that the U.S. and global economies are close to a deflationary spiral. She pointed to more evidence this week, and sounded the alarm for the potential dire consequences of the Federal Reserve’s ongoing rate tightening measures. According to Wood, deflation tied to China and actions by the U.S. central bank could set off a chain reaction of deflation-induced economic slowdowns, not just within the United States but across international markets.

Source @CathieDWood (X, August 14, 2023)

Ms. Wood, the 67-year-old market veteran, who falls in the category of celebrity investor, has many fans and followers. She shared her concerns in a string of posts on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. Wood stated, “China is exporting deflation in a more profound way than I believe many economists and strategists appreciate.”

She explained that producer prices in China, the world’s second largest economy, were impacted by the U.S. dollar strengthening by 15% against the Chinese yuan, despite the devaluation adding around 15% to Chinese PPI, the Chinese reported a decline in the PPI inflation measure by 4%.

Source @CathieDWood (X, August 14, 2023)

Wood expressed China is exporting deflation. She posted that, under normal circumstances, the 15% depreciation of the yuan against the dollar in 2022 should have led to a 15% increase in China’s annual producer inflation rate. Since it instead dropped 4%, In her math, this is creating near a 20% downdraft on prices of Chinese goods.

Source @CathieDWood (X, August 14, 2023)

Turning her focus to China’s economic trajectory, Wood recounted the country’s impressive growth following its entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001. Over nearly two decades, China’s real GDP experienced a sustained double-digit expansion. However, Wood pointed out that rapid growth often conceals underlying economic vulnerabilities, including excessive debt and leverage. Her firm believes these vulnerabilities are now creating cracks in China’s economy.

Source @CathieDWood (X, August 14, 2023)

Wood suggested that China might attempt to halt the depreciation of the yuan. However, this would necessitate selling off U.S. dollars and acquiring yuan, which, in turn, tightens monetary policy and fuels the economy’s fragility, even amid efforts to stimulate it.

Source @CathieDWood (X, August 14, 2023)

Ark Invest’s CEO posted, “The Fed has precipitated and exacerbated the risk of a global deflationary bust.” Drawing attention to the central bank’s remarkable 22-fold increase in the Fed funds rate, Wood warned that the repercussions of this move would first impact China and subsequently ripple through the rest of the world.

Recent economic data from China underscores the challenges it currently faces. Second-quarter GDP growth came in at 6.3%, falling short of the 7.3% projection by economists. Furthermore, new bank loans for July plummeted by 89% month-over-month, marking the lowest level since 2009, according to data from the People’s Bank of China.

The deflationary trend is evident in inflation figures as well. July inflation data showed both consumer and producer price inflation rates in negative territory.

Adding to the concerns, a trio of data released from the China National Bureau of Statistics revealed lackluster performance. Retail sales rose by a modest 2.5% year-over-year in July, well below the anticipated 4.5% increase. Industrial Production also lagged, with a 3.7% rise compared to the consensus estimate of 4.4%. Moreover, fixed asset investment figures raised further questions about the country’s economic health.

Take Away

There are certainly competing inflation forecasts opposing those coming out of Cathie Wood’s firm. However, her warnings do serve as a reminder, from a veteran in the asset management business, of the interconnectedness of global economies and the potential ramifications of central bank policy decisions. As markets continue to navigate the crosscurrents, attention remains on policymakers and economic indicators for signs of any change in trends.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

Cathie Wood’s X Post

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202308/t20230815_1942019.html

Is the 2024 Social Security COLA level a Foregone Conclusion?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

It Seems Likely that Grandma and Grandpa are Getting a Much Smaller Raise Next Year

In 2023, Social Security recipients received the highest COLA in more than 40 years, 8.7%. At the same time, the entire U.S., including those retired, was impacted by the highest annual inflation in over 40 years. The result is the increased pay impacted recipients differently. Those with a higher percentage of variable costs or expenses, especially where inflation was worst, such as rent, travel, or fuel did not benefit as much, if at all. Those with a greater percentage of fixed costs may have found themselves with more money at the end of each month.

Consumers in the U.S., including Social Security recipients, have not had their purchasing power eroded as much during the first seven months of 2023, as they experienced in 2022. Social Security cost of living adjustments (COLA) are based on a formula that will cause the increase paid next year to rise almost by a third of what it rose at the beginning of 2023.

While not yet official, the new forecast comes after the release of July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), and is largely based on little change over the next 45 days.   

How is a COLA Calculated?

Ignore for a moment the inflation rate percentages you see in the news headlines. The 12-month CPI is calculated by using the set cost of a basket of goods during the month, divided into the cost of the same basket a year earlier. SSA COLA is calculated by the average price of the basket July, August, and September, and dividing it by the average of these months a year earlier. The CPI used in this case is not the CPI-U (all urban consumers) typically reported in the news, but instead, CPI-W (Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers). CPI-W is calculated on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The most recent release was August 10, 2023.

COLA increases are rounded to the nearest tenth. The adjusted benefit payments are effective as of the first month of the new year.

What to Expect

Social Security recipients could see a 3% bump up next year, based on July’s CPI data, and the current stagnation in the level of inflation. A 3% COLA would raise an average monthly benefit of $1,789 by $53.70 and the maximum benefit by $136.65 per month.

Retired Americans who find Social Security a nice addition to 401(k) or 403(B) investment returns or ample pensions may find themselves with a few extra dollars to take road trips or treat themselves to dining out, or gifts for grandchildren. But investors looking for industries that may benefit from the fatter checks older Americans will receive may find that there is little difference in spending for the majority.

In its recent survey of retirees, the Senior Citizens League found that more than 66% of those that completed its survey have postponed dental care, including major services such as bridges, dentures, and implants. Another 43% said they have delayed optical exams or getting prescription eyeglasses. Almost one-third of survey participants said they have postponed getting medical care or filling prescriptions due to deductibles, out-of-pocket costs, and unexpected bills.

Persistent high prices aren’t the only challenge. Findings from the survey suggest more than one in five Social Security beneficiaries (23%) report they paid tax on a portion of their benefits for the first time this past tax season.

Take Away

When economic numbers are released, they are of interest to a expansive variety of economic stakeholders. This includes investors determining how new statistics will impact corporate earnings, economists deciding how it could impact the Fed’s next move, equity analysts reviewing their industry and companies in the sector, the young couple looking to furnish a new home, and those past their working years that are in general more vulnerable.

The CPI number from July and those that will be reported for August and September will have a noticeable impact on the high percentage of elderly in the U.S. come January 2024.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/latestCOLA.html#:~:text=The%20Social%20Security%20Act%20specifies,the%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-security-payment-increase-cola-2024-retirement-a3fce38e

https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/colafacts2022.pdf

https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-security-payment-increase-cola-2024-retirement-a3fce38e

https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/colafacts2022.pdf

Is Good Economic News Back to Being Good for the Stock Market?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

The Surprisingly High Economic Growth Numbers Aren’t Spooking Investors

Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, is one of the best measures of U.S. economic health. The second quarter GDP report as well as the first quarter upward revision, fully support the idea that the economy is growing above expectations and that the Fed’s rate hike in July was justified. This places equity investors in the position they have become very familiar with, wondering if they should be bullish on stocks as the economy rolls on, or should they be bearish as the Fed’s reaction could cause a period of negative growth (recession). Seeing how the Dow is on a winning streak of a dozen days in a row,  even as the Fed resumed tightening, it may be that the forward-looking stock market has turned the corner and is now taking good news as good news, and bad news as bad, once again.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

GDP was much stronger than expected – economists surveyed by FactSet were expecting a 1.5% gain. This was the first data release since the July FOMC meeting; it will however be followed on Friday by two other key indicators. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the second quarter (first estimate of GDP). This is significantly better than economists’ projections and makes abundantly clear that through last quarter, the economy was far from contracting or recessionary.

Contributors to the better-than-expected growth are increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending, according to the BEA. Non-manufacturing contributors (services) included housing and utilities, health care, financial services and insurance, and transportation services. The contribution to goods spending was led by recreational goods and vehicles as well as gasoline and other energy goods.

Other Market-Moving Releases

The GDP report was the first piece of economic data following the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday; this concluded with a quarter-point increase in the central bank’s target for the fed-funds rate. That now leaves the Fed’s benchmark rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%.

Jobs and the tight employment market, where there are currently more jobs available than workers looking for employment, should still be a big focus of monetary policymakers. On Friday July 28, the employment cost index (ECI) is expected to show that the hourly labor cost to employers in the second quarter grew at a 4.8% annual rate, and by 1.1% quarter to quarter, according to the consensus estimate by FactSet. That’s little changed from the first quarter, when compensation costs for civilian workers increased by 4.8% annually and at a 1.2% rate quarter over quarter, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor tightness and wage inflation are both concerning for the Fed and provide evidence that a more restrictive policy is needed.

Investors should look for ECI to provide some insight into how sticky service inflation is right now. This is of high importance because, within the service sector, wages tend to be the highest input cost. If the number comes in higher than expected, that could be a worrisome sign of continued stubborn inflation, which then indicates the need for additional rate hikes.

At the same time the ECI report is released on Friday, the PCE data is released. While the market’s tendency over the months has been to hyperfocus on the “Fed’s favorite inflation measure,” PCE may take a back seat in terms of significance to ECI data.

Take Away

Inflation rates coming down while the economy grows is, if inflation declines enough, a soft economic landing. The stock market, which had been reacting negatively to strong economic news, is beginning to show signs that it expects a soft landing – while this lasts, the markets could continue their winning streak.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-most-interesting-economic-news-this-week-wont-come-from-the-fed-8416e9a3?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_1

https://www.barrons.com/articles/us-gdp-growth-report-data-8468fd3b?mod=hp_LEAD_1

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/pce-inflation-preview-price-pressures-set-to-fade-in-fed-favorite-figures-us-dollar-to-follow-suit-202307270646

Shrinkflation and Skimpflation Are Eating Our Lunch

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Brett Jordan (Flickr)

Why Economic Data Doesn’t Reconcile With Personal Experience

Does grocery shopping and eating out cost the same as it did in 2019? Government statistics on personal consumption and expenditures would seem to indicate they do. Most of us know that we are paying noticeably more to eat than we did a few years ago. Below is an article explaining the flaws in government data and the nuances that hide actual experience from this set of numbers. It is written by Dr. Jonathan Newman, he is a Fellow at the Mises Institute, his research focuses on inflation and business cycles, and the history of economic thought.  – Paul Hoffman, Managing Editor, Channelchek.

Economist Jeremy Horpedahl dismissed the silly claim by anticapitalists that capitalism must engineer food scarcity for the sake of profits. He presented a graph of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data demonstrating a substantial decrease in household food expenditure as a percentage of income—from 44 percent in 1901 to a mere 9 percent in 2021. This is something to celebrate and certainly can be attributed to the abundance of market economies.

But when Jordan Peterson asked, “And what’s happened the last two years?” I went digging. First, I confirmed Horpedahl’s observation: the amount we spend on food as a proportion of our budget has fallen dramatically. Second, I saw what Peterson hinted at: a significant spike in food spending when covid and the associated mess of government interventions hit (figure 1).

Figure 1: Food and personal consumption expenditures, 1959–2023

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, FRED.

Interestingly, the spike looks like a blip. Someone oblivious to the events of the past few years might see this chart and say, “Yeah, something strange happened in 2020, but it looks like everything is back to normal.” I’m certain that this doesn’t align with anyone’s experience, however. Even today, no one would say that restaurant visits and grocery store trips cost the same as they did in 2019.

What changed in 2020? Why does this graph not feel right? Assuming the Bureau of Economic Analysis data isn’t totally off (and it is important to be skeptical of government data), why would a January 2023 report on consumer inflation sentiment conclude that “there is a disconnect between the inflation data reported by the government and what consumers say they now pay for necessities”?

The difference lies in the qualitative aspects of our experience as consumers. Spending proportions may have returned to their trend, but that isn’t the whole story. “Shrinkflation” and “skimpflation” have taken their toll on the quantity and quality of the food we enjoy—or maybe the food we tolerate is more apt.

Businesses know that charging higher prices is unpopular, especially when many consumers are convinced that greed is driving price inflation. So businesses resort to reducing the amount of food in the package, diluting the product but keeping the same amount, or otherwise cutting corners in ways that consumers may not immediately notice.

Thankfully, websites such as mouseprint.org document some of these cases:

Sara Lee blueberry bagels reduced from 1 lb., 4.0 oz. per bag to 1 lb., 0.7 oz.

Bounty “double rolls” reduced from 98 sheets to 90 (how is it still a “double roll”?)

Gain laundry detergent containers reduced from 92 fl. oz. to 88 fl. oz. without any obvious difference in the size of the container

Dawn dish soap bottles reduced from 19.4 fl. oz. to 18.0 fl. oz.

Green Giant frozen broccoli and cheese sauce packages reduced from 10.0 oz. to 8.0 oz. with no change in the advertised number of servings per package

In some instances of skimpflation, the volume or weight of a product remains the same, but the proportions change. For example, Hungry-Man Double Chicken Bowls (a frozen dinner of fried chicken and macaroni and cheese) maintained a net weight of 15.0 oz., but the protein content dropped from 39 grams to 33 grams.

And while firms are reducing the quantity and quality of the food they sell, consumers are also choosing to purchase less food and even lower-quality food. The January 2023 report on consumer inflation sentiment shows that 69.4 percent of respondents “reduced quantity, quality or both in their grocery purchases due to price increases over the last 12 months.”

We have also seen a widespread and long-lasting change in customer service at restaurants. Many restaurants switched to providing only takeout for months or years. Even though the dine-in option has been reintroduced at some restaurants, the service hasn’t quite been the same, with QR-code menus, shorter hours, less staff, and terse demeanors.

It’s not surprising that the massive government interventions, including creating trillions of new dollars, would have countless effects—some that show up in various statistics but many that do not. For example, if we look back at the period of German hyperinflation, we see surprisingly boring data on food spending proportions (figure 2).

Figure 2: Household expenditures in Germany, 1920–22

Source: Data from Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich, The German Inflation, 1914–1923: Causes and Effects in International Perspective, trans. Theo Balderston (New York: Walter de Gruyter, 1986), cited in Gerald D. Feldman, The Great Disorder: Politics, Economics, and Society in the German Inflation 1914–1924 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 549.

Historian Gerald D. Feldman commented on the German household expenditure data in a way that sounds familiar: “As one study after another pointed out, however, the full impact of these changes had to be understood in qualitative terms.” There was “reduced quality and quantity of the food consumed” and “poorer quality clothing,” among other qualitative changes.

Government statistics are unable to capture these subtleties. This should be obvious—your personal experience as a consumer is more than just the price you pay for a certain weight of food. We aren’t merely machines; we don’t describe our lives in miles per gallon or kilowatt hours.

This is why Ludwig von Mises attacked the conceited aggregates and indexes purported to measure various aspects of consumers’ lives: “The pretentious solemnity which statisticians and statistical bureaus display in computing indexes of purchasing power and cost of living is out of place. These index numbers are at best rather crude and inaccurate illustrations of changes which have occurred.”

He concludes: “A judicious housewife knows much more about price changes as far as they affect her own household than the statistical averages can tell.”

Original Source

https://mises.org/wire/shrinkflation-and-skimpflation-are-eating-our-lunch

Is this the Soft Landing They Told Us Could Not Happen?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Weighing in on Powell’s Chances of a Hard Landing

Is the U.S. economy headed toward a soft landing? While rare, the numbers are beginning to argue in favor on the side of a soft landing versus a hard one. An economic soft landing is a situation in which the Federal Reserve is able to slow economic growth without causing a recession. A hard landing, on the other hand, is a situation in which the central bank’s efforts to slow down economic growth lead to a recession. Recent inflation reports, employment numbers, and economic growth figures are looking more and more like monetary policy over the past year and a half, may be defying past performance; the U.S. might be able to avoid a situation where the economy shrinks (negative growth).

Background

The Federal Reserve has been facing a difficult challenge for almost two years as inflation spiked well above the Fed’s 2% target. In fact increases in prices were at a 40-year high as inflation began to soar toward double-digits. Fed monetary policy, which effectively controls the money in the economy, that in turn impacts interest rates, has been acting to raise rates to bring inflation under control. Less money increases the cost of that money (rates), which dampens economic activity.

There has been, and continues to be, a risk that the Fed raises interest rates too high or too quickly, this is the hard landing economic path. The hard landing scenario is more common than soft landings.

The Federal Reserve has a miserable record of achieving soft landings. There have been a few occasions when the Fed has been able to slow down economic growth without causing a recession. One example of success is 1994-1995. During this period the Fed raised interest rates by 2.5% from a starting point of 4.25% in order to bring inflation under control. However, the economy continued to grow during this period, and there was no recession.

Today’s Scenario

The current state of the U.S. economy is uncertain. Inflation is at a 40-year high, and the Fed has been raising interest rates in an effort to bring it under control. However, there is a risk that the Fed will raise interest rates too high or too quickly, which could lead to an economic hard landing, with job losses and negative growth. In fact, after an FOMC meeting in November, Fed Chair Powell said it would be easier to revive the economy if they overtighten, than it would be to lower it if they don’t tighten enough. So to the Fed Chair, a hard landing is better than no landing at all.

There has been a high level of concern amongst stakeholders in the U.S. economy.  One reason is that the U.S. economy is already slow. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 was 2.0%, and it is expected to slow in the second quarter. Maintaining  growth while pulling money from the system to reduce stimulus is a difficult maneuver. In fact, it usually ends as a hard, undesirable economic landing.

Another factor that is of concern this time around is the state of the housing market. Home prices rallied with low interest rates during and post pandemic. A fall-off in housing would have a ripple effect throughout the economy, leading to job losses and lower consumer spending. So far, housing has held up as new home sales are strong, and demand for existing homes remains elevated as homeowners with low mortgage rates are deciding to stay put.

Where from Here?

On Monday (July 11), Loretta J. Mester, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, warned during an address in San Diego that the central bank may need to keep hiking rates as inflation has remained “stubbornly high.” Fed governors go into a blackout period on July 15 as they always do before an FOMC meeting. That meeting will be held on July 25-26. So there is no telling if the voting FOMC members are going to dial back their hawkishness in light of this week’s more favorable CPI report that shows yoy inflation at 3%.  

The Fed’s favored inflation gauge is PCE. The next PCE report is not to be released until July 28, after the July FOMC meeting. The previous report showed that in May, inflation was running at 3.8% over 12 months.

The banking system, which showed some cracks back in March, seems to be shored up; although some problems still exist, a full-scale banking crisis does not seem likely. The Fed would obviously like to keep it this way.

Employment gains were the smallest in 2-1/2 years in June, however the unemployment rate is close to historically low levels and wage growth is still strong, so although wages are not fully working their way into the final cost of goods or services, the industries having to pay the higher wages are likely absorbing some of the cost, which could pull from profits.

Part of the Fed’s tightening has been the less talked about quantitative tightening. This reduces the Fed’s balance sheet which swelled as part of the reaction to the pandemic.  Reducing this in a meaningful way will take time, but even if the Fed remains paused on rate hikes, there is still $90 billion scheduled to be pulled from the economy each month as maturities will be allowed to mature from the Fed’s holdings without being rolled. This my eventually cause U.S. Treasury rates and mortgage rates to tick up as increased Treasury borrowing, and decreased Fed ownership may put downward pressure on prices.

Take Away

The recent CPI report is causing some that argued a soft landing is achievable to celebrate and those that thought it impossible to consider it a possibility. The chances appear greater, and a soft landing is certainly a desirable outcome for stock prices and U.S. economy stakeholders. From here, there are a number of factors that can increase the risk of a hard landing, they include the pace of additional interest rate hikes, and the behavior of the housing markets. We’re entering a period where we will not hear any commentary from Fed governors, and the next major inflation indicator comes after the FOMC meeting, so markets will be on the edge of their seats until July 26 at 2 PM Eastern.

Paul Hoffman

Channelchek, Managing Editor

Sources

https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-funds-rate-historical-chart

https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20220126.pdf

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.6%20percent.

https://www.pionline.com/economy/cooling-inflation-gives-investors-momentary-breather-asset-managers-say

https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index#:~:text=The%20PCE%20price%20index%2C%20released,included%20in%20the%20GDP%20release.

Can You Prepare for Hyperinflation?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Hyperinflation, Can Investors Protect Themselves?

Inflation in Argentina so far in 2023 is running at 126.4%. Meanwhile, its GDP has declined by 3.1%. This certainly meets the definition of hyperinflation. Can this situation occur in the U.S. economy? Hyperinflation is when prices of goods and services in the economy run up rapidly; at the same time, it causes the value of the nation’s currency to fall rapidly. It’s a devastating phenomenon that has serious consequences for businesses, investors, and households. Below we explore the causes of hyperinflation, its effects on the economy, and some ways to protect investable assets against it.

Causes of Hyperinflation

Hyperinflation can be caused by a variety of factors, but one ingredient that is most common is excessive money printing by the country’s central bank. When a central bank allows excessive cash in circulation, especially if it is during a period of low or negative growth, natural economic forces that occur when there is an abundance of currency chasing the same or fewer goods, serves to drive up prices and down currency values. This inflation can quickly spiral out of control, leading to hyperinflation. Other causes could include shortages of goods or services driving prices up as demand outstrips available supply.

Effects on the Economy

Excessive inflation is not good for anyone that holds the impacted currency. Businesses can command higher prices, but they will also be paying higher prices to run their business and receiving payment with notes with far less purchasing power. This is because hyperinflation increases costs for labor and raw materials, weighing down profit margins. Less obvious, but certainly adding to the hardship, is that businesses may have trouble securing financing and loans during hyperinflation; this can limit their ability to function or grow.

For households and individuals, hyperinflation also rapidly decreases purchasing power, as prices for goods and services jump up. This lowers living standards in the country as people are forced to pay more for the same goods and services. Additionally, hyperinflation can lead to a loss of confidence in the currency. Behavior including the belief that items should be purchased now because they will be more expensive tomorrow leads to hoarding and other actions that create shortages and drives up prices even further.

How Some Prepare for Hyperinflation

Hyperinflation is rare, yet, once the wheels start turning, such as they did in Venezuela in 2016, or Germany in 1923, it is important for businesses and individuals to take steps to prepare for the possibility. Here are ways that people have prepared for excessive inflation in their native currency.

Diversify Your Investments: While some believe it is always prudent to stay widely diversified, it may offer even more protection when the economy goes through the turmoil of excessive inflation. Preparing in this way means spreading your investments across a variety of asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities. This will help by avoiding any one particular asset class that gets hit hard. Keep in mind, stocks are often a good hedge against moderate inflation, and precious metals have historically been looked to for protection in times of extreme inflation. Earnings of companies that export are not expected to suffer as much as importers.

Hold Some Assets Denominated in Other Currencies: This can include established digital currencies, foreign stocks, bonds, that are not denominated in your own home currency. By holding assets denominated in other currencies, you can protect yourself from its devaluation versus others.

Invest in Hard Assets: Hard assets, such as gold and silver, land, and even tools can be a good way to protect yourself or your business from hyperinflation. These assets have intrinsic value and can retain their value even if the currency they are denominated in loses value. Remember that if inflation remains, it is likely to cost more in the coming months for the same piece of office equipment that helps your business run more efficiently.

Cryptocurrencies: Keeping within the guidelines of diversification, more established tokens such as bitcoin and ether are considered by some to help protect from hyperinflation. A word of caution, cryptocurrencies have little history against currency devaluation and inflation. The theory however is these digital currencies are decentralized and not subject to the same inflationary pressures as fiat currencies.

Take Away

In 2018 inflation in Venezuela exceeded 1,000,000%, proving, when the recipe for higher prices is in place, the unimaginable can happen.  

While there is no consumer or investor that can proactively impact a rising price freight train, if hyperinflation is expected, there are steps one can take to reduce the negative impacts. These financial steps can be as simple as buying things today that you expect to need later, and more substantially diversifying your portfolio toward hard assets, companies that export to countries not experiencing inflation, and even bonds with either short maturities or an inflation factor as part of the return.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/argentina-inflation-seen-at-126.4-in-2023-central-bank-poll-shows

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/shared/minitext/ess_germanhyperinflation.html#:~:text=In%201923%2C%20at%20the%20most,surprise%20by%20the%20financial%20tornado.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/03/the-hyperinflation-hype-why-the-us-can-never-be-weimar/254715/

Will the Fed Now Exercise Caution?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Adam Selwood (Flickr)

FOMC Now Contending With Banks and Sticky Inflation

The Federal Reserve is facing a rather sticky problem. Despite its best efforts over the past year, inflation is stubbornly refusing to head south with any urgency to a target of 2%.

Rather, the inflation report released on March 14, 2023, shows consumer prices rose 0.4% in February, meaning the year-over-year increase is now at 6% – which is only a little lower than in January.

So, what do you do if you are a member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting March 21-22 to set the U.S. economy’s interest rates?

The inclination based on the Consumer Price Index data alone may be to go for broke and aggressively raise rates in a bid to tame the inflationary beast. But while the inflation report may be the last major data release before the rate-setting meeting, it is far from being the only information that central bankers will be chewing over.

Don’t let yourself be misled. Understand issues with help from experts

And economic news from elsewhere – along with jitters from a market already rather spooked by two recent bank failures – may steady the Fed’s hand. In short, monetary policymakers may opt to go with what the market has already seemingly factored in: an increase of 0.25-0.5 percentage point.

Here’s why.

While it is true that inflation is proving remarkably stubborn – and a robust March job report may have put further pressure on the Fed – digging into the latest CPI data shows some signs that inflation is beginning to wane.

Energy prices fell 0.6% in February, after increasing 0.2% the month before. This is a good indication that fuel prices are not out of control despite the twin pressures of extreme weather in the U.S. and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Food prices in February continued to climb, by 0.4% – but here, again, there were glimmers of good news in that meat, fish and egg prices had softened.

Although the latest consumer price report isn’t entirely what the Fed would have wanted to read – it does underline just how difficult the battle against inflation is – there doesn’t appear to be enough in it to warrant an aggressive hike in rates. Certainly it might be seen as risky to move to a benchmark higher than what the market has already factored in. So, I think a quarter point increase is the most likely scenario when Fed rate-setters meet later this month – but certainly no more than a half point hike at most.

This is especially true given that there are signs that the U.S. economy is softening. The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey indicates that fewer businesses are looking as aggressively for labor as they once were. In addition, there have been some major rounds of layoffs in the tech sector. Housing has also slowed amid rising mortgage rates and falling prices. And then there was the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank – caused in part by the Fed’s repeated hikes in its base rate.

This all points to “caution” being the watchword when it comes to the next interest rate decision. The market has priced in a moderate increase in the Fed’s benchmark rate; anything too aggressive has the potential to come as a shock and send stock markets tumbling.

This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Christopher Decker, Professor of Economics, University of Nebraska Omaha.

The PCE Inflation Index and Sector Outperformers

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: 401(K) 2012 (Flickr)

What Sectors Outperformed the Market after the PCE Inflation Shock?

When an investor inquires, “What stocks do well with high inflation?”  they are often asking, “What sectors do well with rising interest rates?,” because inflation expectations often drive rate moves. The text book response usually given are: consumer staples, banks and financials, and commodities. The PCE indexes are considered the Fed’s preferred indicator of inflation trends. The PCE surprised markets on the high side when released on February 24th. What can investors now expect from higher-than-forecast inflation?

Rather than look at old information on what outperforms the overall market when inflation expectations rise, I thought it would be informative and more useful to see what is outperforming under current 2023 conditions and climate. The chart below and the remainder of this simple study is a snapshot three hours after the news settled in among investors (11:30am ET, February 24th).

Personal Income and Outlays

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Sectors Outperforming Overall Market

There were five S&P sectors that outperformed the S&P 500 a few hours after the inflation number showed an almost across-the-board acceleration in price increases. At this point, the S&P 500 had already fallen 1.31%.

Beating the S&P larger index, but the worst of the five outperformers was Health Care (XLV). The Health sector is considered to be a necessity that consumers find a means to pay for regardless of cost. Within the sector there are companies providing goods and services that are more embraced by investors than others. Within the XLV, many stocks were green after the report.

Outperforming the Health Care sector were stocks making up the Industrial Sector (XLI).  This includes large industrial manufacturers like John Deere, General Electric, and Caterpillar. Many of these companies have contracts well out into the future that assures business. What is not ordinarily assured is the cost of manufacturing which can go up with inflation. A number of the top holdings in XLI barely budged on the morning – GE was up .08%, Honeywell was down .18%, and UPS was down just .20%.

Almost even with the Industrial Sector was Consumer Staples (XLP). As with Health Care and to a lesser degree Industrials this sector is where money moves to during inflationary periods. Consumers may be postpone a new car purchase, but they’ll keep their buying habits unchanged for products produced by Colgate, Coca-Cola, Proctor and Gamble, or cigarette manufacturers.

Source: Koyfin

Performing second best after the inflation numbers was the Utility sector (XLU). Again this follows the mindset that consumers can only cutback on water, electricity, and natural gas so much. It is more likely that cutbacks would come in other areas like entertainment, or technology. Technology was the worst performing sector.

The top performer, although still modestly negative, was the Financial sector. This includes insurance, banks and credit card companies, as well as investment firms. Banks, particularly those with a higher percentage of traditional banking business, benefit from a steepening yield curve. Banks use cash as their product line. They borrow short from customers, and lend longer term. As the yield curve steepens, their net income can be expected to rise. This may explain why two of the top three holdings were positive after the report, JP Morgan (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC). Brokerage firms also may benefit as accounts uninvested balances can be a source of revenue as financial firms earn interest on them. Rising rates means every balance they can earn on creates additional income. 

Larger Index Observations

As indicated earlier, technology was the worst-performing sector. This causes the tech heavy Nasdaq to far underperform the other major indexes. The best performing a few hour after the open was the Dow Industrials, which is comprised of just 30 industrial stocks, many paying consistent dividends. The second best performer, beating both the Dow and S&P 500 was the Russell 2000 Small-Cap index. Small-cap stocks tend to be less affected when borrowing costs change, and tend to have more of their end customers located domestically. The U.S.-based customers is an advantage to smaller stocks when rising rates cause rising dollar values. A rising dollar makes goods or services from the U.S. more expensive overseas.

Take Away

The textbook reply to questions related to rising rates, inflation, and sector rotation in stocks held up after the surprise PCE index increase. Banks, and necessities like heat and consumer goods outperformed. Also small-cap stocks did not disappoint, they also held up better than the overall large cap universe.

One difficulty small and even microcap investors face is that information is less available on many of these companies. And there are a lot of them, including in the sectors that outperform with inflation. One easy way to find which smaller companies are rising to the top is Channelchek’s Market Movers tab. This can be viewed throughout the trading day by clicking here for the link.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2023

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-02-24/u-s-inflation-accelerates-in-january-consumer-spending-surges

The Record Levels of Cash Held by Investors May Not Indicate a Bear Market

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Pictures of Money (Flickr)

Investors Receiving a 5% Yield are Losing to Inflation

The CPI inflation report and the Fed’s relentless increases in Fed funds levels have pushed the six-month US Treasury Bill (T-Bill) above 5%. This is the first time since 2007 that this low-risk investment has topped 5%. Last year on this date, the six-month T-Bill was 0.76%. While the stock market is concerned that higher borrowing costs will have the Fed’s intended effect of slowing demand, rates are reaching a point where another concern creeps in. The concern is will traditional stock investors lay back and be satisfied getting paid interest.  

More likely, the high cash position represents “dry powder” waiting for an opportunity.

Short Term Rates

Money Market fund assets were $4.81 trillion for the week ended Wednesday, February 8, according to the Investment Company Institute. Just shy of the record MF balances reported in January. Higher than average cash levels have often been thought of as a bullish sign as it represents potential to drive stock prices up when flows toward equities increase.

This may be part of the situation as we come off a dismal 2022 for equities, but there is likely something else incentivizing the retreat to safety. The higher interest rates are in the short end of the curve, investors are getting paid to retreat. High-yielding cash equivalents with six-month T-Bills now at 5% (10-year Treasuries are only 3.75%) may be more than a parking place. It may represent an alternative investment with a much more assured return.

Ten Year Quarterly Returns S&P 500

Source: Macrotrends

Is 5% an Acceptable Return?

With inflation at 6.4%, the answer is no. But it is definitely preferable to seven of the periods on the 10-year chart above. And with January’s consumer price index (CPI) report revealing signs of sticky to reaccelerating inflation, the Federal Reserve is more likely to be hiking rates for longer than expected.

For investors looking to invest for longer periods, the stock market handily beats inflation. In other words, for the various time frames below, S&P 500 investors did not see their assets erode due to inflation.

Beating inflation is foundational to investing. Far exceeding it is the goal of many. Investors are not doing this choosing cash, in fact they are choosing to lose buying power rather than risk that the market doesn’t perform as it has historically.

S&P 500 Return for Periods 5-Years to 30-Years

Source: Macrotrends

Take Away

Data released on Tuesday February 14 showed the inflation rate (CPI) slowed to 6.4% in January. The cost of goods and services rose 0.5% during the month. The half percentage is the largest one month erosion of purchasing power in three months.

Investors content with 4%-5% returns should consider that they are losing ground to persistent inflation.

Investors with a five-year time horizon or longer should weigh the risks of earning yields below the inflation rate to the ups and downs of stocks. In fact, as more do, the 4-5 trillion in cash can make or quite a bull market.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2022

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01162008.pdf

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/investors-are-holding-near-record-levels-of-cash-and-may-be-poised-to-snap-up-stocks.html

https://www.ici.org/research/stats/mmf

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/average-stock-market-return#:~:text=The%20average%20stock%20market%20return%20is%20about%2010%25%20per%20year,other%20years%20it%20returns%20less.

Wage Inflation, Labor Shortages, and Who Stopped Working

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Mr. Blue MauMau (Flickr)

Is the Mismatch in Workers and Open Jobs Proving to Be Transitory?

Inflation has been the most bearish word for the stock and bond markets over the past year or more. Shortly after many of the supply chain issues cleared up, and the cargo ships were no longer stacked up outside of major ports, attracting scarce workers with higher pay became a growing cause of inflationary pressure. At the end of November 2022, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that “job openings exceed available workers by about 4 million.” That number has now grown to 4.7 million after the continued strengthening of the market for qualified labor.

This mismatch, depicted in the Fed Data below, between available positions and workers to fill them, developed a more inflationary trend. The graph depicts the mismatch of labor supply and demand and the extent that it has worsened.

When the civilian labor force is greater than employment plus job openings, the economy has an immediate capacity to fill open positions. Currently, the employment level plus job openings are at 170.5 million, while the total labor force is at 165.8 million. Thus the 4.7 million quoted earlier. There are a whopping 4.7 million more jobs available compared to people available to fill them.

The civilian labor force, the amount of people working or looking for a job, is shown below in red; the current employment level plus the number of job openings is shown in blue.

.

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve

Labor Participation Hesitancy

The pandemic has been emphasized as a cause of this not-very-transitory labor shortage, but the trends in labor demand and labor supply in the graph above indicate that demand was already outpacing supply as the US entered 2018. This was two years before the novel coronavirus hit US shores. Back then the mismatch was about one million workers fewer than jobs available before the economic disruption.

As the US began to move toward business-as-usual, news and market analysts offered many explanations for the labor shortage. These included childcare problems, health concerns, minimum wage pushback, and even a wave of new retirees.

The visual below shows the change experienced in the labor force participation rate (LFPR) for specific age groups: 20 to 24 years old, 25 to 54 years old, and 55+ years old. By subtracting the most recent LFPR from that of January 2020 we get the percentage-point change in labor force participation relative to the month just before the pandemic began impacting businesses.

When the pandemic hit, the sharpest decline in the LFPR was for workers between the ages of 20 and 24. Their LFPR decreased from 73% to 64.4% in 4 months before increasing again. However, at the end of 2022, the LFPR for 20- to 24-year-olds still hadn’t fully recovered and remained 1.7 percentage points below its January 2020 value.

This overall pattern is similar but less extreme for the other age groups. Although no age group fully recovered by the end of 2022, the 25-54 group was closest, at 0.7 percentage points below its January 2002 level. There’s been speculation older workers retired early (and permanently) during the pandemic, and the 55+ group remained 1.4 percentage points below its January 2020 level as of December 2022, with no sign of further recovery.

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve

Take Away

The mechanisms that cause inflation are widely understood. If there is a shortage of goods because of the supply chain, sellers can ask more for the product. If the cost of producing goods or providing services increase, perhaps because of the cost of labor, the seller may try to pass those higher costs along. On the demand-pull side, if there is an abundance of currency, this increases demand for goods and services and is also inflationary.

While the Fed has been waging a fight against rising prices by removing liquidity and ratcheting up the cost of money (interest rates), the number of open jobs compared to the number of workers available to fill them has widened.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20221130a.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/searchresults/?st=unemployment%20rate&isTst=1

PCE Inflation Versus CPI Inflation, What’s the Difference?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Brenda Gottsabend (Flickr)

The Increasing Popularity of the PCE Inflation Gauge

US inflation, by a number of official measures, reached its highest level in 40 years last year. For a large percentage of investors and shoppers, this is their first experience of prices quickly rising. For decades, on many tech products, prices declined over time (while adding functionality). There are a number of different measures of inflation reported regularly – they impact us in different ways. Knowing the difference, whether you’re investing, planning a purchase, or expecting a cost of living (COLA) increase, is helpful. Below we go through the different measures so you understand the impact of say “headline CPI” versus “core PCE.”

According to James Bullard, the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,  “measuring inflation is one of the most difficult issues studied by economists.”

By definition, inflation is the percentage change in overall prices in the economy over a specified period, commonly quoted as a year-over-year change. It’s much more than an increase in the prices of a few products. Given the inherent difficulties in following every price in the country, economists have created price indexes to approximate the overall price level.

PCE Inflation

Before the year 2000, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) primarily focused on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as its inflation gauge. We’ll explain CPI next, but for the Fed, when it now says it has a 2% inflation target, PCE is the data used.

Though the two indexes have a lot of overlap, there are reasons why the PCE is considered a better tool by policymakers.

The PCE price index, which rose 5.5% in November 2022 from a year earlier, is derived from a broader index of prices than the CPI’s more narrow set of goods and services. The argument as to why policymakers gave an edge in the late 1990s to make the change in 2000 is that a more comprehensive index (such as PCE) of prices provides a better way to gauge underlying inflationary pressures. Since the PCE includes more goods and services, the index’s weights for particular items will differ dramatically from those in the CPI. For example, housing has a weight of about 16% in the PCE price index versus 33% in the CPI. The varied items more accurately reflect actual costs to consumers since they may substitute one for another as prices of items change at different rates. This ability to substitute is a primary reason why PCE tends to print lower than headline CPI.

CPI Remains Important

The most widely cited measure of inflation is the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This index was created in 1919 as officials devised a way to measure rising consumer prices just after World War I.

The CPI, which rose 6.5% for all of 2022, measures the price changes for a basket of goods and services purchased by the typical urban consumer. The items in this basket are weighted by their relative importance in consumer expenditures. For example, housing—rent and other spending on shelter—accounts for 33% of the index, while medical care accounts for nearly 9%.

This index, like others, takes into account changing consumption. New items come in and old items leave. The example I like to use is that prohibition began in January 1920, just after CPI came into use. Alcohol was not part of the index back then, whereas it is today (5.78% increase in 2022), product adoption changes.

The CPI weights had been adjusted every two years using two years of consumer spending data. Starting in 2023, the BLS will update weights annually using one year of data.

Headline PCE Inflation versus Headline CPI Inflation

The increasing popularity of the PCE is because the index’s weights are updated monthly, versus annually for CPI (prior to 2023 updates were every two years). Thus, the PCE can quickly reflect the impact of new technology or an abrupt change in consumer spending patterns. For example, the onset of the coronavirus pandemic quickly shifted consumption from services like restaurants to services like communication technology. Since the headline PCE uses more timely, actual outlays, it provides the FOMC a more accurate consumer experience in terms of inflation.  

The stated target by the FOMC is 2%, a level that policymakers judge to be consistent with achieving price stability and maximum employment. On average, inflation was hovering below this target before the pandemic’s economic ramifications (from 1995 through 2019 PCE average equaled 1.8%).  

Other Inflation Measures

While the FOMC targets headline PCE inflation, policymakers also watch other measures to gauge inflationary pressures. The headline PCE measure can be quite volatile due to the effects of extreme price movements for certain products. To get a sense of where underlying inflation really is, economists often look at some summary measure of inflation that doesn’t include these volatile prices.

A so-called “core” index—whether it be PCE or CPI—excludes food and energy components. That has some simplicity around it, but it’s not satisfactory. There are better ways to analyze underlying inflation than to throw out certain goods and services, especially those that hit low- to moderate-income consumers the hardest when prices rise. And even if you exclude food and energy prices, the remaining part of the index is still affected by their volatility; restaurant prices would be a classic example.

More recently, other statistical ideas have been developed. One method looks at price change distribution for the entire range of goods and services.3

One commonly used measure of this type is the Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE inflation rate, which removes the upper tail (the largest price changes) and the lower tail (the smallest price changes) and then takes a weighted average of the price changes for the remaining components. This measure has been popular as a tool for examining trends and overall inflation as opposed to special factors that might be driving inflation. Of course, these types of measures4 tend to be more persistent and move more slowly than headline inflation measures.

Take Away

While market concerns over inflation for many years were low and most may have been more concerned about deflation, the current tight supply of goods and labor, coupled with the easiness of money, has ushered in a period where markets are likely to feel the impact of each inflation post.

Understanding the most watched inflation gauges will help sort out whether a trend or single post is likely to cause a change in course on interest rates. Or is it more likely a blip that will on average work its way out? The Fed is currently targeting a PCE inflation rate of 2%. The current pace is more than double this, but trending down after the Fed tightened in 2022 at a record pace. The Fed and the markets are now awaiting the impact of those cuts as there is a lag in applying the economic brakes (to lessen inflation) and when the economy has its biggest reaction to the Fed’s heavy pressure on the brake pedal.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm

https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/11/07/bullard.pdf

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_consumer_price_index_alcoholic_beverages_unadjusted

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/2022/sep/making-sense-inflation-measures#authorbox