Tag: Inflation

How Much More Will Your Paycheck be When Tax Brackets Adjust for Inflation?

Posted on by cpatches
Image Credit: Chris Potter (Flickr)

Increased Take Home Pay in 2023 Thanks to the IRS (and Inflation)

If two negatives make a positive, what do you get when you cross inflation with the IRS?

In addition to receiving much higher COLA increases on Social Security payments, and earning an interest rate in excess of 9% on US Savings Bonds, those making an income in 2023 are likely to see more take-home pay. This should happen whether or not they get a raise. An IRS calculation devised to prevent bracket creep is to thank for this. While high inflation is destructive, at least there are a few things that are put in place that will automatically adjust and help ease the pain.

The adjustment to tax brackets typically has had a minimal impact on workers paychecks. But the tax formulas that are law and the persistent inflation through 2022 point to significant impact on workers 2023 tax bill. Next year when income tax thresholds and the standard deductions are raised, if all else is unchanged, there will be more money in the income earners’ pockets, and less going to the government.

How Much More?

According to an accounting professor at Northern Illinois University named Jim Young, a single taxpayer with $100,000 in adjusted gross income in 2023 could experience a tax savings of about $500, or $42 each month.

Contribution maximums are also expected to be raised where tax-advantaged savings for retirement could also help reduce tax burdens in the coming years. Estate and gift tax thresholds would also automatically be increased by as much as $2 million more for a couple.

The IRS makes the adjustments based on formulas and inflation data spelled out in the tax code. This is different than the headline CPI-U which is most often reported.  

The inflation measure used for the tax and contribution adjustments is the Chained Consumer Price Index (C-CPI-U), which takes into account the substitutions customers make when costs rise. The average of the chained CPI from September 2021 through August 2022 is used to calculate the 2023 adjustments, which the IRS will announce next month. These ultimately affect tax returns for the 2023 tax year filed in early 2024.

Price increases eroding purchasing power are running at the most rampant pace in forty years. Based on the current average of the C-CPI-U, here are estimates on what to expect, according to the American Enterprise Institute:

Tax levels and other tax bracket thresholds and breakpoints will increase by around 7% over 2022. The 2022 increase over 2021 was around 3%, which was the largest percentage increase in four years. For the tax year 2023, income earners will see the breakpoints moved by the most in 35 years.

The top federal income tax threshold in 2023 is expected to rise by nearly $50,000 next year for married couples, and that 37% rate will apply to income above $693,750. For individuals, the top tax bracket will start at $578,125.

The standard deduction for married couples is expected to be $27,700 for 2023, up from $25,900 this year, and $13,850 for individuals, up from $12,950. This is the amount that those who do not itemize deductions can reduce their W-2 federal income by before being subject to income tax.

The federal estate tax exclusion amount, what a person can protect from estate taxes, is $12.06 million this year. That’s expected to rise to $12.92 million by 2023, meaning a married couple can shield nearly $26 million from estate taxes.

The annual tax-free gift limit is expected to rise from $16,000 this year to $17,000 by 2023.

The maximum contribution amount for an individual retirement account is expected to jump to $6,500 for 2023, up from $6,000, where it has been since 2019. The maximum contribution allowed for a flexible health account is expected to increase to $3,050 in 2023, up from $2,850 this year.

The maximum contribution amount for a 401(k) or similar workplace retirement plan is governed by yet another formula that uses September inflation data. It is estimated that the contribution limit will increase to $22,500 in 2023 from $20,500 this year and the catch-contribution amount for those age 50 or more will rise from $6,500 to at least $7,500.

The child tax credit under current law is $2,000 per child is not adjusted for inflation. But the additional child tax credit, which is refundable and available even to taxpayers that have no tax liability, is adjusted for inflation. It is expected to increase from $1,500 to $1,600 in 2023.

For those that look forward to capping out payments to Social Security, there is bad news. This has also increased. According to the 2022 Social Security Trustees Report, the wage base tax rate is projected to increase 5.5% from $147,000 to $155,100 in 2023.

Costs are rising, but so are deductions. It’s improbable that the reduced taxes will offset skyrocketing inflation, but at least there is one financial category that is helped by the increases.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/irs-provides-tax-inflation-adjustments-for-tax-year-2022

https://www.wsj.com/articles/one-upside-to-high-inflation-lower-tax-bills-11663174727?mod=livecoverage_web

https://www.spamchronicles.com/high-inflation-brings-changes-to-your-tax-bill/

The Fed Gets Inflation Tips from Cathie Wood

Posted on by cpatches
Image Credit: Meghan Marron (Pexels)

Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood Finds the Federal Reserve Quixotic

On Wall Street, staying with the herd guarantees average gains or losses. Wandering far from the herd adds two more possibilities. You may still have average performance, you may exceed the averages, or you may get slaughtered. ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood likes to explore her own field in which to graze, far from the herd. This preference shows in her funds performance. At times her returns have far exceeded competing hedge funds, and at other times they fall well below the pack.

In October of 2021, before Fed Chairman Powell changed his thinking that inflation may not be transitory, the renowned hedge fund manager, and market guru, Cathie Wood began sounding alarm bells about her fear of deflationary pressures. At the same time, she warned of job losses due to displacement as technology would reduce costs and the need for the current skill sets in the labor force.

For months renowned investor Cathie Wood has said that the Federal Reserve should stop raising interest rates, that the economy is seeing deflation rather than inflation, and that it is in a recession.

Even as others in the”transitory” camp have come more in line with the official position of the Fed on inflation, she has remained steadfast to her idea that new technology will solve supply issues. Supply is an important inflation input, and that innovation may oversupply to a point where the economy may struggle with falling prices.

This week she tweeted a few reasons for her forecast and shared her thoughts on Jerome Powell’s address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

Her view is that the Fed has overshot the target. Wood, who was already working on Wall Street during the high inflation 1970’s, tweeted her reasons for this belief. High on her list is the price of gold (expressed in dollars) which she says is one of the best inflation gauges. Gold, she tweeted,  “peaked more than two years ago.”

She also reminded followers of the price movements of other commodities, all down. These include lumber’s price decrease of 60%, iron ore 60%, oil 35%, and copper 30%. Much closer to final consumer prices, she highlighted that retailers are flush with inventories that don’t match the selling season. They’re discounting to clear shelves which could result in a deflation print in one of the more popular inflation gauges.

The Fed chairman who last fought inflation with unblinking resolve is Paul Volcker. Ms. Wood reminded her Twitter followers that the inflation he was battling had been “brewing and building for 15 years.”  In comparison, she said inflation under Jay Powell’s watch is only 15 months old and Covid-related.  She thinks the current Fed Chair has gone too far, and “I wouldn’t be surprised to see a significant policy pivot over the next three to six months,” Wood said.

A Quixotic Fed?

Powell and his colleagues are looking at the wrong data, Wood tweeted. “The Fed is basing monetary policy decisions on backward indicators: employment and core inflation,” she tweeted.  “Inflation is turning into deflation,” she said in another tweet.

Wood said, comparing the two Fed chairpersons, Powell invoked Volcker’s name four times in the Jackson Hole speech.  Her tweets explained inflation was much higher in Volker’s era.  “Until Volker took over [of the Fed] In 1979, 15 years after the start of the Vietnam War and the Great Society, did the Fed launch a decisive attack on inflation,” Wood detailed.

“Conversely, in the face of two-year supply-related inflationary shocks, Powell is using Volker’s sledgehammer and, I believe, is making a mistake.”

Take Away

Without different opinions and different investment holding periods, there would be no market. We’d all speculate on the same things, and they’d continue upward until the last dollar was invested.

Ark Invest’s flagship Arc Innovation ETF (arkk) has fallen 55% this year, more than double the fall-off of the indexes. When discussing current performance Wood has defended her strategy by reminding others that she has an investment horizon of five years. As of Sept. 7, Arc Innovation’s five-year annualized return was 5.81%.

Cathie Wood has continued an almost year-long campaign warning of deflation and saying the Federal Reserve should stop raising interest rates, and that the economy is in a recession. If she is right and has selected the investments that benefit from being correct, then those invested in her funds will be glad they placed some of their investment funds away from the herd.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://twitter.com/CathieDWood/status/1567648675635073025

www.koyfin.com

What Powell is Doing About this Vexing Inflation Contributor

Posted on by cpatches
Image Credit: IMF (Flickr)

Fed Chairman Powell Shows His Steady Hand and Firm Conviction at Monetary Conference

In what is his last scheduled public appearance before the post-FOMC statement expected on Sept. 21, Fed Chairman Powell did not say anything that would change expectations of another 75bp Fed Funds rate hike. He instead emphasized the Fed’s commitment to reduce inflation and believes it can be done and at the same time avoid “very high social costs.” 

“It is very much our view, and my view, that we need to act now forthrightly, strongly, as we have been doing, and we need to keep at it until the job is done,”  Powell said Thursday (Sept. 8) at the 40th annual Monetary Conference held virtually by the Cato Institute.

The discussion was held after it was known that the Eurozone Central Bank had just raised rates by 75bp. Powell’s talk and the interest rate hike overseas didn’t upset U.S. markets as U.S. Jobless claims had been reported earlier and showed a very strong labor market which helped demonstrate that the Fed’s actions to return inflation to a more acceptable level are not severely hurting business.

The Federal Reserve Chairman continued to reiterate what he has been saying, that the U.S. central bank is focused on bringing down high inflation to prevent it from becoming entrenched as it did in the 1970s. The core theme, most recently heard at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, is that he is resolved to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target.

Mr. Powell said it is critical to prevent households and businesses from ongoing expectations that inflation will rise. He said this is a key lesson taken from the persistent inflation of the 1970s. “The public had really come to think of higher inflation as the norm and to expect it to continue, and that’s what made it so hard to get inflation down in that case,” Powell said. The takeaway for policymakers, he added, is that “the longer inflation remains well above target, the greater the risk the public does begin to see higher inflation as the norm, and that has the capacity to really raise the costs of getting inflation down.”

Speaking the day before at the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at The Clearing House and Bank Policy Institute Annual Conference, Fed Vice Chairwoman Lael Brainard, didn’t express a preference on the size of the next increase but underscored the need for rates to rise and stay at levels that would slow economic activity. “We are in this for as long as it takes to get inflation down,” she said.

Fed officials have raised rates this year at the most rapid pace since the early 1980s. The federal funds rate, the percentage banks charge each other for overnight borrowing, rose from near zero in March to a range between 2.25% and 2.5% in July, which is where it sits today.

Take Away

The Fed’s two mandates are to keep inflation at bay and to make sure there are adequate jobs in the U.S. The lessons of the past indicate that expectations of inflation are inflationary themselves. The Fed Chairman and Fed Vice Chairwoman would undermine their goals if they did not talk tough on inflation. With the economy not having sunk into a deep recession, and joblessness at acceptable levels, their actions are likely to match their tough talk.

The stock market typically behaves well when confident that the Fed is fighting inflation and has a steady grasp of what too far is. Overly tight money would dampen business growth.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm

https://www.cato.org/events/40th-annual-monetary-conference

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/08/business/ecb-meeting-inflation-interest-rates

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-three-month-low-2022-09-08/