Release – Hemisphere Energy Provides Corporate Update, Declares Quarterly Dividend, and Announces 2024 Guidance

Research News and Market Data on HMENF

January 25, 2024 8:00 AM EST

Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – January 25, 2024) – Hemisphere Energy Corporation (TSXV: HME) (OTCQX: HMENF) (“Hemisphere” or the “Company”) is pleased to provide a corporate update, announce the declaration of a quarterly dividend payment to shareholders, and deliver guidance for 2024.

Corporate Update

Hemisphere realized another successful year in 2023, balancing production growth with balance sheet strength and shareholder return. During the year, $17.5 million was returned to shareholders in the form of dividends ($13.1 million) and share buybacks ($4.4 million), representing an approximate 14% yield to shareholders based on the market capitalization of Hemisphere at year-end.

The Company achieved record average production in the fourth quarter of 3,375 boe/d (99% heavy oil), which represents a 16% increase over the same period in 2022. This growth in production year-over-year is the combined result of Hemisphere’s successful third quarter drilling program with the Company’s effective enhanced oil recovery (“EOR”) polymer flood projects. Hemisphere’s annual average production for 2023 was approximately 3,100 boe/d (99% heavy oil), representing 10% growth as compared to 2022.

Balance sheet strength continued to be a priority in 2023, with Hemisphere exiting the year in a cash position. Hemisphere funded all of its shareholder returns and entire $16 million capital expenditure1 program on 2023 cash flow. In addition to drilling 8 successful Atlee Buffalo wells and upgrading some of its facilities, the Company acquired over 2,500 hectares of new land in Saskatchewan and Alberta. Hemisphere has plans to drill a new prospect on some of these Saskatchewan lands in the first half of 2024, and believes it to be prospective for EOR polymer flooding.

Given the significant free cash flow generated by Hemisphere’s ultra-low production decline and long-life reserve asset base, the Company was able to complement its $0.025 per share quarterly base dividend with a $0.03 per share special dividend paid in the fourth quarter of 2023. This brought total shareholder returns last year to $0.13 per share in dividends. Hemisphere also invested $4.4 million into its normal course issuer bid (“NCIB”) share buyback program to purchase and cancel 3.5 million shares in 2023.

Quarterly Dividend

Hemisphere is pleased to announce that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.025 per common share in accordance with the Company’s dividend policy. The dividend will be paid on February 23, 2024 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 9, 2024. The dividend is designated as an eligible dividend for income tax purposes.

2024 Corporate Guidance

Hemisphere’s Board of Directors has approved a 2024 capital expenditure program of $21 million, which is planned to be entirely funded by Hemisphere’s estimated 2024 adjusted funds flow1 (“AFF”) of $40 million and is anticipated to provide 10% annual production growth. The majority of capital will be allocated to drilling and facility work, with approximately 10% allotted to exploration and land acquisition. Over half of the planned capital expenditures are scheduled for the third quarter, providing Hemisphere with the flexibility to adjust plans subject to the commodity price environment.

The start of 2024 brought with it some extreme cold weather which has substantially affected corporate production during the month of January. The failure of an electrical panel at Hemisphere’s G pool facility resulted in the loss of power to its operations. Subsequent sustained -40°C weather led to freezing of most of the G pool wells and facility, which experienced 5 days of complete downtime and an additional few days of lower production as equipment was repaired and wells were brought back online. All impacts of this production disruption have been accounted for in the guidance set out below, and the team has now restored operations back to normal levels.

After capital expenditures and asset retirement obligations (“ARO”), 2024 free funds flow1 (“FFF”) is estimated to be $19 million, of which approximately 50% is planned to be paid in quarterly dividends as shown in the table below. The balance of cash will be used for discretionary purposes, which may include potential acceleration of other development or exploration projects, acquisitions, and additional return of capital to shareholders through Hemisphere’s NCIB program and/or special dividends.

Management believes that the 2024 development plan provides stable production growth and consistent shareholder returns, while still allowing for modest investment in a new EOR play with exciting growth potential for the Company.

Highlights and assumptions of Hemisphere’s guidance at US$75/bbl WTI are as follows:

  • Average annual production of 3,400 boe/d (99% heavy oil), a 10% increase as compared to 2023
  • Average WTI price of US$75/bbl, with sensitivities shown at US$65/bbl and US$85/bbl
  • WCS differential of US$15.50/bbl and quality adjustment of $7.50/bbl
  • CAD/US FX of 1.35
  • Operating and transportation costs of $14.85/boe
  • Royalties and GORRs on gross revenue of 20% at US$75/bbl WTI, 18% at US$65/bbl WTI, and 22% at US$85/bbl WTI
  • Net G&A of $3.65/boe
  • Tax Costs of $7.29/boe at US$75/bbl WTI, $4.91/boe at US$65/bbl WTI, and $9.53/boe at US$85/bbl WTI
2024 Corporate Guidance(2)US$65 WTIUS$75 WTIUS$85 WTI
Adjusted Funds Flow (AFF)$ million314049
AFF per Basic Share(1,3)$/share0.320.410.49
Capital Expenditures & ARO$ million212121
Free Funds Flow (FFF)$ million101928
FFF per Basic Share(1,3)$ million0.100.190.28
Dividend per Basic Share(3)$ million0.100.100.10

Notes:

(1) AFF, Capital Expenditures, and FFF are non-IFRS financial measures that are forward looking and do not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. AFF per basic share and FFF per basic share are non-IFRS financial ratios that are forward looking and do not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar ratios presented by other entities and include non-IFRS financial measure components of AFF and FFF. See “Non-IFRS Measures“.
(2) See assumptions noted above within “2024 Corporate Guidance”.
(3) Using a 2024 weighted average of 98,988,539 basic shares issued and outstanding.
(4) The amounts above do not include potential future purchases through the Company’s NCIB program or other discretionary uses of available funds.

About Hemisphere Energy Corporation

Hemisphere is a dividend-paying Canadian oil company focused on maximizing value-per-share growth with the sustainable development of its high netback, ultra-low decline conventional heavy oil assets through EOR polymer flood projects. Hemisphere trades on the TSX Venture Exchange as a Tier 1 issuer under the symbol “HME” and on the OTCQX Venture Marketplace under the symbol “HMENF”.

For further information, please visit the Company’s website at www.hemisphereenergy.ca to view its corporate presentation or contact:

Don Simmons, President & Chief Executive Officer
Telephone: (604) 685-9255
Email: info@hemisphereenergy.ca

Website: www.hemisphereenergy.ca

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements included in this news release constitute forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (collectively, “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-Looking statements are typically identified by words such as anticipate, continue, estimate, expect, forecast, may, will, project, could, plan, intend, should, believe, outlook, potential, target, and similar words suggesting future events or future performance. In particular, but without limiting the generality of the foregoing, this news release includes forward-looking statements regarding the Company’s plans to drill its new Saskatchewan prospect in early 2024 and its belief that it is prospective for EOR polymer flooding; the record date and payment date for Hemisphere’s quarterly dividend; that Hemisphere’s 2024 capital budget is planned to be entirely funded by Hemisphere’s estimated 2024 AFF and is anticipated to provide 10% annual production growth, including that the majority of capital will be allocated to drilling and facility work, with approximately 10% of it allotted to exploration and land acquisition as well as expectations for the timing of such expenditures; Hemisphere’s anticipation that approximately 50% of estimated $19 million in free funds flow will be paid in quarterly dividends with the balance of cash being used for discretionary purposes, which may include potential acceleration of other development or exploration projects, acquisitions, and additional return of capital to shareholders through Hemisphere’s NCIB program and/or special dividends; the expected manner in which the Company’s 2024 capital budget will be spent, including the timing of such expenditures and any discretionary amounts, which may include potential acceleration of other development or exploration projects, acquisitions, and return of capital to shareholders through Hemisphere’s NCIB program and/or dividends, and the anticipated effects thereof, including as set forth under “2024 Corporate Guidance” and the Company’s dividend policy and the other matters and guidance set forth under “2024 Corporate Guidance”.

ForwardLooking statements are based on a number of material factors, expectations or assumptions of Hemisphere which have been used to develop such statements and information, but which may prove to be incorrect. Although Hemisphere believes that the expectations reflected in such forwardlooking statements or information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forwardlooking statements because Hemisphere can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition to other factors and assumptions which may be identified herein (including the assumptions noted in respect of “2024 Corporate Guidance”), assumptions have been made regarding, among other things: the current and go-forward oil price environment; that Hemisphere will continue to conduct its operations in a manner consistent with past operations; that results from drilling and development activities are consistent with past operations; the quality of the reservoirs in which Hemisphere operates and continued performance from existing wells; the continued and timely development of infrastructure in areas of new production; inflationary pressure and related costs; that the Company’s dividend policy will remain the same and the Company will continue to be able to declare dividends; the accuracy of the estimates of Hemisphere’s reserve volumes; certain commodity price and other cost assumptions; continued availability of debt and equity financing and cash flow to fund Hemisphere’s current and future plans and expenditures; the impact of increasing competition; the general stability of the economic and political environment in which Hemisphere operates; the general continuance of current industry conditions; the timely receipt of any required regulatory approvals; the ability of Hemisphere to obtain qualified staff, equipment and services in a timely and cost efficient manner; drilling results; the ability of the operator of the projects in which Hemisphere has an interest in to operate the field in a safe, efficient and effective manner; the ability of Hemisphere to obtain financing on acceptable terms; field production rates and decline rates; the accuracy of the Company’s reservoir modelling; the ability to replace and expand oil and natural gas reserves through acquisition, development and exploration; the timing and cost of pipeline, storage and facility construction and expansion and the ability of Hemisphere to secure adequate product transportation; future commodity prices; currency, exchange and interest rates; regulatory framework regarding royalties, taxes and environmental matters in the jurisdictions in which Hemisphere operates; and the ability of Hemisphere to successfully market its oil and natural gas products.

The forwardlooking statements included in this news release are not guarantees of future performance and should not be unduly relied upon. Such information and statements, including the assumptions made in respect thereof, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to defer materially from those anticipated in such forwardlooking statements including, without limitation: changes in commodity prices; regulatory risks, including penalties or other remedial actions, the ability of the Company to maintain legal title to its properties; changes in the demand for or supply of Hemisphere’s products, the early stage of development of some of the evaluated areas and zones; unanticipated operating results or production declines; results of Hemisphere’s waterflood operations; the ability of Hemisphere to, pending future events, return capital to shareholders as a result of any required third party approvals; changes in budgets; changes in tax or environmental laws, royalty rates or other regulatory matters; changes in development plans of Hemisphere or by third party operators of Hemisphere’s properties, increased debt levels or debt service requirements; inaccurate estimation of Hemisphere’s oil and gas reserve volumes; limited, unfavourable or a lack of access to capital markets; increased costs; a lack of adequate insurance coverage; the impact of competitors; and certain other risks detailed from timetotime in Hemisphere’s public disclosure documents, (including, without limitation, those risks identified in this news release and in Hemisphere’s most recent Annual Information Form).

The forwardlooking statements contained in this news release speak only as of the date of this news release, and Hemisphere does not assume any obligation to publicly update or revise any of the included forwardlooking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities laws.

Forward-Looking Financial Information

This news release may contain future oriented financial information (“FOFI”) within the meaning of applicable securities laws, including with respect to the Company’s anticipated 2024 Free Funds Flow and Adjusted Funds Flow. The FOFI has been prepared by management to provide an outlook of the Company’s activities and results. The FOFI has been prepared based on a number of assumptions including the assumptions discussed and disclosed above, including in relation to “2024 Corporate Guidance” above and “Forward-Looking Statements” above and that the Company is cash taxable in 2024. Readers are cautioned that the assumptions used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on FOFI. The Company’s actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these FOFI, or if any of them do so, what benefits the Company will derive therefrom. The Company has included the FOFI in order to provide readers with a more complete perspective on the Company’s future operations and such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any FOFI statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Non-IFRS and Other Measures

This news release contains terms that are non-IFRS measures or ratios that are forward-looking and commonly used in the oil and gas industry which are not defined by or calculated in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”), such as: (i) adjusted funds flow (ii) adjusted funds flow per basic share; (iii) capital expenditures; (iv) free funds flow; and (v) free funds flow per basic share. These terms should not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than the comparable IFRS measures (as determined in accordance with IFRS) which in the case of funds flow is cash provided by operating activities, in the case of adjusted funds flow (and adjusted funds flow per share) is cash provided by operating activities and in the case of capital expenditures is cash flow used in investing activities. There is no IFRS measure that is reasonably comparable to free funds flow. These measures are commonly used in the oil and gas industry and by Hemisphere to provide shareholders and potential investors with additional information regarding: (i) in the case of adjusted funds flow and free funds flow, the Company’s ability to generate the funds necessary to support future growth through capital investment and to repay any debt.

Hemisphere’s determination of these measures may not be comparable to that reported by other companies. Adjusted funds flow is calculated as cash generated by operating activities, before changes in non-cash working capital and adjusted for any decommissioning expenditures; Adjusted funds flow per share is calculated using the outstanding basic shares of the company as footnoted in the 2024 Corporate Guidance table; Free Funds Flow is calculated as Adjusted Funds Flow less capital expenditures; and Free funds flow per share is calculated using the outstanding basic shares of the company as footnoted in the 2024 Corporate Guidance table. The Company has provided additional information on how these measures are calculated, including a reconciliation of such measures to their comparable IFRS measure, in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the year ended December 31, 2022 and the interim period ended September 30, 2023, which are available under the Company’s SEDAR+ profile at www.sedarplus.ca.

In respect of any forward-looking non-IFRS measures, there is no significant difference between the non-GAAP financial measure that are forward-looking information and the equivalent historical non-GAAP financial measures.

In this news release, Hemisphere uses the term market capitalization at year-end. Hemisphere’s market capitalization was $128 million at the close of December 29, 2023, the last trading day of the year.

Oil and Gas Advisories

Any references in this news release to recent production rates (including as a result of recent waterflood activities) which may be considered to be initial rates and are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons; however, such rates are not determinative of the rates at which such wells will continue production and decline thereafter and are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery. While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production for the Company. Such rates are based on field estimates and may be based on limited data available at this time.

A barrel of oil equivalent (“boe”) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf:1 Bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. In addition, given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.

Definitions and Abbreviations

bblBarrelWTIWest Texas Intermediate
bbl/dbarrels per dayWCSWestern Canadian Select
$/bbldollar per barrelUS$United States Dollar
boebarrel of oil equivalent
boe/dbarrel of oil equivalent per dayIFRSInternational Financial Reporting Standards
$/boedollar per barrel of oil equivalentG&AGeneral and Administrative Costs

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.

SOURCE: Hemisphere Energy Corporation

Hemisphere Energy (HMENF) – Estimates finetuned to reflect weak December quarter energy prices


Tuesday, January 09, 2024

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

As indicated in our recent energy industry report, energy prices were weak in the quarter ended December 21, 2023. WTI oil prices averaged $78.41/bbl. below our $80/bbl. estimate. Henry Hub natural gas prices averaged $2.74/mcf. versus our $3.25/mcf estimate due to warm weather. The C$ to US$ exchange rate was 1.35 times versus our 1.33 estimate.

We are adjusted our estimates modestly to reflect updated energy price and exchange rate numbers. We now project December quarter revenues of C$27.1 million, down from C$27.7 million. Our EBITDA estimate for the quarter is now C$16.7 million versus C$17.2 million and our Adjusted Fund Flow estimate is C$13.2 million versus C$13.4 million. Our earnings per share estimate remains $0.11. We have not made any changes to our 2024 estimates. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Release – Hemisphere Energy Announces Management Appointment and Grants Incentive Stock Options

Research News and Market Data on HMENF

Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – December 18, 2023) – Hemisphere Energy Corporation (TSXV: HME) (OTCQX: HMENF) (“Hemisphere” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce the appointment of Ashley Ramsden-Wood as Chief Development Officer.

Ms. Ramsden-Wood has served as Vice President of Engineering at Hemisphere since 2014 and has been instrumental in the successful growth and development of the Company. Along with her technical engineering strengths, Ms. Ramsden-Wood provides invaluable contributions to corporate affairs, capital planning, business development, strategic growth initiatives, and financial performance analysis.

Additionally, in accordance with the Company’s stock option plan, the Company has granted incentive stock options to purchase up to 1.37 million common shares to directors, officers, and investor relations personnel at an exercise price of $1.27 per share until December 15, 2028.

About Hemisphere Energy Corporation

Hemisphere is a dividend-paying Canadian oil company focused on maximizing value per share growth with the sustainable development of its high netback, low decline conventional heavy oil assets through polymer flood enhanced recovery methods. Hemisphere trades on the TSX Venture Exchange as a Tier 1 issuer under the symbol “HME” and on the OTCQX Venture Marketplace under the symbol “HMENF”.

For further information, please visit the Company’s website at www.hemisphereenergy.ca to view its corporate presentation or contact:

Don Simmons, President & Chief Executive Officer
Telephone: (604) 685-9255
Email: info@hemisphereenergy.ca

Website: www.hemisphereenergy.ca

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.

Hemisphere Energy Corporation (HMENF) – Results beat expectations on higher pricing and lower costs


Wednesday, November 22, 2023

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2023-2Q production rose as expected with new wells coming online. A robust summer of drilling resulted in higher production. Post-quarter flow rates allow us to bump up future production estimates. 

Realized prices came in better than expected. The basin discount was reduced adding to the rise in oil index prices. Management added swaps at attractive prices in response to higher oil prices.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Hemisphere Energy Corporation (HMENF) – Production jump coming. A special dividend!


Friday, September 29, 2023

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2023 summer drilling program completed. Hemisphere drilled eight wells (6 for production) during the summer, as planned. Four had been completed by August 24th, as reported during second quarter results, so the completions were expected and in line with our model’s assumptions. Management indicated that capital expenditures for the rest of the year should be minimal and we do not expect additional wells to be drilled. 

Production is rising. Management reports that production has reached 3,200 boe/d, up from August production of 3,000 boe/d. Recall that production for the second quarter was slightly below our expectations, but we expected rates to rise as wells came on line.  With production finishing the quarter strong, we believe third quarter production should meet our projections for 3,050 boe/d and fourth quarter production of 3,200 boe/d which assumes some improvement from well optimization.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Hemisphere Energy Corporation (HMENF) – Production a bit light, but recent drilling will help


Friday, August 25, 2023

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Production was a bit light, but new wells are coming. Production was flat in the June quarter versus last year and down 9% versus the previous quarter. Results were modestly below our expectations. Management indicated that it pushed drilling (and thus well completion) into the third quarter. Hemisphere remains on track to drill ten wells this year. The company reports that production is back up over 3,000 boe/d in August and appears heading towards a good jump in production in the December quarter when wells are completed.

Lower-than-expected production had an adverse affect on bottom-line financial results. With lower-than-expected production’ revenues, operating income, adjusted fund flow, and net income were all a few C$ million lower than projected in our models. Realized prices were in line with expectations as were operating costs and netbacks. 


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Hemisphere Energy Corporation (HMENF) – Financial results reflect recent investments


Friday, May 26, 2023

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Accelerated drilling is beginning to lead to strong production growth. Production rose 20% year over year and 7% quarter over quarter. After paring back drilling in 2020 when oil prices were low, the company has accelerated its drilling efforts. This has led to a doubling of production since 2020. With an active drilling program planned for the fall, look for production to show similar growth at the end of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. 

But basin differential issues are leading to lower-than-expected pricing. Oil prices fell 19% year over year, but HME’s realized oil price fell 32%. The differential has increased in recent quarters with the last three quarters being significantly larger both in absolute terms and on a percentage basis. We would note that other western Canadian oil producers have reported a similar widening of basin differential. Whatever the reason, it is worth tracking and making adjustments in our models to reflect the widening differential.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Hemisphere Energy Corporation (HMENF) – Hemisphere completed year full of growth


Friday, April 21, 2023

Michael Heim, Senior Energy & Transportation Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results demonstrate strong production growth and a sharp increase in cash flow and earnings. Production rates (preannounced) increased 55%. Increased production was partially offset by a drop in energy prices. Lower-than-expected prices were partially offset by a decrease in royalty rates. Production costs (excluding transportation costs) remain somewhat elevated as they were in the September quarter. We look for production costs per barrel to decrease modestly as new production comes on line in 2023.

As netbacks rose, so did the company’s Adjusted Fund Flow (AFF). The margin between prices and costs is high. Operating netbacks (realized prices less royalties and operating costs) is leading to strong cash flow which management is turning their focus toward returning to shareholders now that debt is virtually eliminated and drilling programs have been accelerated.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The Decision By OPEC Isn’t Bad News for All Investors

Image Credit: Wayne Hsieh (Flickr)

Could Small Oil Companies Perform Especially Well With OPEC’s Reduced Output   

Earlier this week, OPEC+ announced the cartel’s plans for production cuts. Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing members of OPEC+ defied expectations by announcing they would implement production cuts of around 1.1 million barrels a day. Prices of WTI and Brent crude quickly moved higher in the futures market – energy stocks followed. The increased cost of petroleum directly impacts the price of fuel and plastics and indirectly impacts goods that involve transportation – which is mostly all goods.

The decision by OPEC+ is highly likely to put upward pressure on CPI and PPI inflation measures as early as April. The CPI report for April will be released on May 10, and PPI on May 11. Id there good news for investors in the OPEC decision? What stocks might investors look at as potentially benefiting, assuming the OPEC countries adhere to the new production levels?

Background

U.S. markets were not open when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced the large cut of over one million barrels per day. When regular trading resumed in the U.S. on Monday, oil prices jumped up 6.3%, and crude oil prices breached $80. Energy stocks, as measured by the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) rose 4.5%. The price of crude based on futures contracts and the XLE have remained near these levels.

With change comes opportunity. Investors and traders are now trying to determine if this is the start of a new upward trend for the energy sector and, if so, what specific moves may benefit investors most.

One consideration they may have is that, although OPEC is cutting production, the members aren’t the only producers. Historically, domestic production was increased in N. America when prices climbed. This has been less so in recent years as the number of U.S. rigs operating hasn’t increased as might have been expected.

Will this dramatic price spike now prompt action from domestic producers? In his Energy Industry Report published on April 4, titled Why Domestic Producers Cannot Offset OPEC Production Cuts, Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, says that oil is produced in the U.S. at around $30-$40 per barrel. Heim says in his report, “If producers had the ability to ramp up drilling, we would have thought they would have done so even at $60/bbl. prices.”

Possible Beneficiaries

According to the Noble Analyst, large producers have been constrained from growing their oil operations which stems from political and even shareholder pressures to move away from carbon-based energy products. However, Heim says in his report, “Smaller producers face less pressure. Companies with ample acreage and drilling prospects are best positioned to take advantage of a prolonged oil price upcycle.”

In a conversation with the analyst, he shared that when oil prices spiked during the second half of the pandemic and later had added upward movement with the start of the Russia/Ukraine war, many small oil companies took in enough additional revenue to strengthen their finances. Some even began paying dividends for the first time, while others increased their regular dividend to shareholders.

These smaller oil producers not in the political spotlight that may reap additional benefits from OPEC’s cut could include Hemisphere Energy (HMENF). This company increased production by 55% in 2022. According to a research report by Noble Capital Markets initiating coverage on Hemisphere (dated April 3, 2023), “proven reserve findings and development costs are less than C$12/barrel, providing an extremely attractive return on investment for drilling.” It continued, “Hemisphere’s finding and development costs are among the lowest of western Canadian producers and reflect its favorable drilling locations and the company’s experience drilling in the area.” The increase in price per barrel could enhance cash flow for this North American producer, allowing it to expand production.

Permex Petroleum (OILCD, OIL.CN) is a junior oil and gas company that already had a significant upside potential before the jump in per-barrel prices. This boost in cash from higher oil prices and a possible uplisting to the NYSE, could work to benefit shareholders.

InPlay Oil (IPOOF) increased annual production last year by 58%. InPlay is an example of a smaller producer that has been able to increase drilling when prices rise. It has used increased cash flow to lower debt levels by 59% and pay shareholders with its first dividend payment.

Indonesia Energy Corporation Ltd. (INDO) is an oil and gas exploration and production company operating in Indonesia. The company plans on drilling 18 wells in the Kruh Block (four have been completed). Covid19 steps in the region where Indo Energy operates have pushed back drilling that was expected in 2023-2024 one year.

 Take Away

With change comes opportunity. Higher oil prices will impact all of us that must still occasionally stop our internal combustion engine vehicles at gas stations. But the oil price increase may lead to a melting up of some stocks.

There are arguments that can be made that smaller, more nimble producers, not burdened by the political spotlight and perhaps enjoying a better financial position from the last run-up in oil, are worth looking into. A Channelchek search returned over 200 companies that may fall into this category. This search result is available here.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.channelchek.com/research-reports/25689

https://www.channelchek.com/research-reports/25307

https://www.channelchek.com/news-channel/energy-industry-report-why-domestic-producers-cannot-offset-opec-production-cuts

Hemisphere Energy Corporation (HMENF) – Initiating with an Outperform Rating and $2.25 Price Target


Monday, April 03, 2023

Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

We believe the market is undervaluing Hemisphere Energy’s asset base cash flow generation. We believe the stock price will move towards our price target as the company generates operating cash flow that is used to expand operations and return capital to shareholders. We view the investment as fairly low risk because it is expanding operations is an area that is well known and already providing high returns on investment.

Strong production growth. Production increased 55% in 2022 and management expects production to grow another 10-15% in 2023 in response to the addition of new wells. Unless there is a dramatic drop in oil prices, we believe the company will be able to maintain a double-digit production growth rate for the foreseeable future. Longer-term growth may be dependent upon completing a step-out acquisition to increase the company’s drilling locations.


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