U.S. mortgage rates dropped this week to their lowest point in nearly a year, offering a glimmer of relief for homeowners and prospective buyers navigating an expensive housing market. According to Freddie Mac data, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 6.58%, down from 6.63% last week and the lowest reading since October 2024. The 15-year fixed rate also eased slightly, falling to 5.71%.
The decline comes as financial markets grow more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut benchmark interest rates in September. Although mortgage rates aren’t set directly by the Fed, they tend to move in tandem with expectations about the central bank’s future policy decisions.
Weak job growth in recent months and inflation figures that undershot economists’ projections have increased the likelihood of a rate cut. Traders now see a more than 90% probability of the Fed reducing rates by 25 basis points next month. That anticipation has already been factored into mortgage pricing, helping push borrowing costs lower.
Economists caution that borrowers shouldn’t assume today’s levels will continue falling. With much of the expected Fed policy shift already “priced in,” mortgage rates may hover in the current range rather than dropping sharply after the central bank makes its move. Some analysts even suggest volatility could return as new economic data on jobs, wages, and consumer spending is released in the coming weeks.
In other words, the window for buyers to lock in a rate in the mid-6% range may be limited.
For now, the latest decline in borrowing costs has sparked a modest uptick in refinancing activity. Applications to refinance existing mortgages rose 23% in the past week, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications, however, barely moved, rising just 1% as affordability challenges continue to weigh heavily on potential buyers.
Even at 6.58%, mortgage rates remain well above pre-2022 levels, when many borrowers were able to secure loans below 4%. Combined with elevated home prices and limited housing supply, that means affordability remains stretched for first-time buyers in particular.
The direction of mortgage rates through the rest of 2025 will depend largely on how quickly the economy cools and how aggressive the Fed becomes in easing monetary policy. If inflation continues to trend lower and job growth slows further, rates could remain at the lower end of their recent range. However, any surprises in economic data could push borrowing costs higher again.
For now, borrowers considering a purchase or refinance may find this moment to be one of the most favorable opportunities since late last year.
