Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures
Energy Stocks underperformed the market in the second quarter. Energy stocks declined 2.0% in the 2023 second quarter, underperforming the 8.3% rise in the S&P 500 Index. The decline comes after several years of strong performances for energy stocks and reflects a 6.6% decrease in oil prices. Oil drilling activity has begun to pick up but remains well below historical high levels. Interestingly, the recent increase in active drilling rigs has not led to increased production. This may be a sign that the improvement in drilling techniques has begun to slow. Or it may simply represent a reduction in prime drilling targets.
We expect oil prices to remain above our long-term forecast of $60/bbl. for the foreseeable future. The combination of limited drilling, rising demand associated with improving economic conditions, and OPEC production cuts bodes well for oil prices. We believe oil prices will remain above our long-term projections of $60 per barrel for the foreseeable future.
The story for natural gas is less positive but improving. Natural gas prices have been on a downward trend for the last twelve months. Some of the decline can be attributed to warm weather this winter. Drillers have been slow to respond to low gas prices but have cut back activity since April. New LNG export capacity is coming online soon and should boost natural gas demand.
We believe the outlook for energy companies remains favorable. Oil prices are high and do not show signs of falling due to sharp production decline rates, rising demand due to improving global economic conditions, and active OPEC production cuts. Natural gas prices are low but should improve with a return to more normal weather, a reduction in supply due to less drilling activity, and an increase in demand for LNG exports. We believe the case for smaller cap energy stocks is especially strong.
Energy Stocks
Energy stocks, as measured by the XLE Energy Index, declined 2.0% in the 2023 second quarter, underperforming the 8.3% rise in the S&P 500 Index. The decline comes after several years of strong performances for energy stocks and reflects a 6.6% decrease in oil prices. The decline in oil prices came despite two OPEC production cuts and signs of improving global economic conditions.
Oil Prices
Figure #1
Drilling activity has begun to pick up but remains well below historical high levels. Interestingly, the recent increase in active drilling rigs has not led to increased production. This may be a sign that the improvement in drilling techniques has begun to slow. Or it may simply represent a reduction in prime drilling targets. Either way, it seems that cyclical oil price patterns of the past have become more muted. Drillers are taking a longer-term view of prices. We believe improved energy company fiscal discipline will lead to a period of prolonged high oil prices.
Figure #2
Stated another way, production from recently drilled wells does not increase production levels but goes to replace production declines from existing wells. As drillers shift to horizontal wells with longer laterals and increased fracking activity, oil production shifts towards the earlier years of a well’s life. However, that means that the production decline after initial production is greater, and more wells must be drilled just to replace production. The chart below, while somewhat dated, shows Permian Basin oil production separated by the year wells came on-line. The chart shows that in 2022, more than half of all oil production came from wells drilled in 2021 or 2022.
Figure #3
Source: Novi Labs
The combination of limited drilling, rising demand associated with improving economic conditions, and OPEC production cuts bodes well for oil prices. We believe oil prices will remain above our long-term projections of $60 per barrel for the foreseeable future.
Natural Gas Prices
The story for natural gas is less positive. Natural gas prices have been on a downward trend for the last twelve months. With the decline, we are beginning to hear reports of production curtailment. Some of the decline can be attributed to warm weather this winter. Natural gas storage levels are running above historical levels for this time of year. Drillers have been slow to respond to low gas prices. Active rigs targeting gas formations in the United States remained between 150 and 160 through April. However, since then, the rig count has plunged to the current level of 124.
Figure #4
The decline in natural gas prices in recent years has come despite a dramatic increase in natural gas exports in recent years. This trend continues with an additional 1 TCF/year of U.S. export capacity scheduled to come online by 2025. Whether or not that has an impact on natural gas prices remains to be seen.
Figure #5
Outlook
We believe the outlook for energy companies remains favorable. Oil prices are high and do not show signs of falling due to sharp production decline rates, rising demand due to improving global economic conditions, and active OPEC production cuts. Natural gas prices are low but should improve with a return to more normal weather, a reduction in supply due to less drilling activity, and an increase in demand for LNG exports. We believe the case for smaller cap energy stocks is especially strong. Major oil companies are facing increasing pressure to focus on renewable energy instead of producing more carbon-based fuel. Smaller cap energy companies are less tethered and often able to acquire and exploit properties being ignored by the majors.
GENERAL DISCLAIMERS
All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “we”, “us”, or “our” are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc.(“Noble”) and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.
This publication is intended for information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to buy/sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security mentioned in this report, nor shall there be any sale of the security herein in any state or domicile in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or domicile. This publication and all information, comments, statements or opinions contained or expressed herein are applicable only as of the date of this publication and subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Noble accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that such liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Noble. This report is not to be relied upon as a substitute for the exercising of independent judgement. Noble may have published, and may in the future publish, other research reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information provided in this report. Noble is under no obligation to bring to the attention of any recipient of this report, any past or future reports. Investors should only consider this report as single factor in making an investment decision.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This publication is confidential for the information of the addressee only and may not be reproduced in whole or in part, copies circulated, or discussed to another party, without the written consent of Noble Capital Markets, Inc. (“Noble”). Noble seeks to update its research as appropriate, but may be unable to do so based upon various regulatory constraints. Research reports are not published at regular intervals; publication times and dates are based upon the analyst’s judgement. Noble professionals including traders, salespeople and investment bankers may provide written or oral market commentary, or discuss trading strategies to Noble clients and the Noble proprietary trading desk that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research report. The majority of companies that Noble follows are emerging growth companies. Securities in these companies involve a higher degree of risk and more volatility than the securities of more established companies. The securities discussed in Noble research reports may not be suitable for some investors and as such, investors must take extra care and make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment based upon risk tolerance, investment objectives and financial status.
Company Specific Disclosures
The following disclosures relate to relationships between Noble and the company (the “Company”) covered by the Noble Research Division and referred to in this research report. Noble is not a market maker in any of the companies mentioned in this report. Noble intends to seek compensation for investment banking services and non-investment banking services (securities and non-securities related) with any or all of the companies mentioned in this report within the next 3 months
ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE
Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.” FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
WARNING
This report is intended to provide general securities advice, and does not purport to make any recommendation that any securities transaction is appropriate for any recipient particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Prior to making any investment decision, recipients should assess, or seek advice from their advisors, on whether any relevant part of this report is appropriate to their individual circumstances. If a recipient was referred to Noble Capital Markets, Inc. by an investment advisor, that advisor may receive a benefit in respect of transactions effected on the recipients behalf, details of which will be available on request in regard to a transaction that involves a personalized securities recommendation. Additional risks associated with the security mentioned in this report that might impede achievement of the target can be found in its initial report issued by Noble Capital Markets, Inc.. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose unless authorized by Noble Capital Markets, Inc..
RESEARCH ANALYST CERTIFICATION
Independence Of View All views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers.
Receipt of Compensation No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to any specific recommendations or views expressed in the public appearance and/or research report.
Ownership and Material Conflicts of Interest Neither I nor anybody in my household has a financial interest in the securities of the subject company or any other company mentioned in this report.
Alvopetro Energy Ltd.’s vision is to become a leading independent upstream and midstream operator in Brazil. Our strategy is to unlock the on-shore natural gas potential in the state of Bahia in Brazil, building off the development of our Caburé natural gas field and our strategic midstream infrastructure.
Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Initial Bom Lugar well successful. Alvopetro completed its BL-06 well encountering a larger-than-expected pay zone confirming previously announced results for the well. The well is important because it is 100% owned and is primarily oil unlike current wells in the Cabure Field. Alvopetro management spoke about the well results in a recent Noble-sponsored non deal road show in St. Louis and New York.
The well will lead to expanded drilling. Alvopetro was very pleased with the results and said that successful production testing would lead to an expanded development drilling program. Management had previously indicated that it plans to drill two developmental wells in Bom Lugar in 2023. In the press release, management indicated its intent to mobilize the drilling rig to the Murucututu natural gas field while the Bom Lugar well is production tested.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
There is Record Government Funding for Energy, According to a New Report
Governments around the globe spent a lot of money on energy research and development last year, according to data presented in the newly released World Energy Investment 2023 report. As presented, government investment in newer technology hit record highs in 2022. The report lays out how unevenly the money is distributed. It’s no surprise that ever-increasing amounts have been allocated to clean energy technologies. Understanding these allocations can be helpful to both the public and private investors involved or seeking to be involved in an industry that is considered a necessity for life.
The report also shows that investment in energy innovation increased. But cautions that a weaker economy may lead to a reduced ability to fund newer ideas, especially those that rely on private capital. This could possibly create a period where the fast pace of innovation, improvement, and efficiency tapers.
In addition to possible increased economic weakness as a risk, countries are turning their focus closer to home. Many are investing in their own clean energy industries. This also risks decelerating the “clean energy” pace – cooperation between countries helps lubricate development, and poorer countries, potentially with a larger carbon footprint per capita, benefit from the assistance of the global community. The report shows an expectation that sharing of information and technology decreased in 2022, but the G7 and G20 are starting to address the barriers to energy R&D investment and the disparities between countries.
The report also shows that investment in clean energy technologies is significantly outpacing spending on fossil fuels, as affordability and security concerns triggered by the global energy crisis strengthen the momentum behind more sustainable options.
Public spending on all energy research and development is estimated to have grown by $US 44 billion or 10% in 2022, with 80% estimated to have been spent to benefit “clean energy.” As far as non-government investments, listed companies in energy-related sectors, demonstrated a similar rise in R&D budgets in 2022, while early-stage venture capital investment into clean energy start-ups reached a new high of $US 6.7 billion. These solid outcomes came despite higher costs of capital and pervading economic uncertainty.
Early-stage equity funding for energy start-ups had its biggest year ever in 2022, with increases in most clean energy technology areas. Funding for start-ups in CO2 capture, energy efficiency, nuclear and renewables nearly doubled or more than doubled from 2021, which was already much higher than the average of the preceding decade. This type of funding supports technology testing and design and plays a critical role in honing good ideas and adapting them to market opportunities.
Growth-stage funding, which requires more capital but funds less risky innovation, rose by only 1% in 2022 and was very weak in Q1 2023, indicating that the value of growth-stage deals for energy start-ups could fall by nearly 60% in 2023. Prevailing macroeconomic conditions have slowed the amount of capital available and raised the cost of scaling up businesses.
The report indicates that early-stage equity funding for energy start-ups is booming, led by clean mobility and renewables, but later-stage funding is eroding.
Take Away
Overall, the World Energy Investment 2023 report shows that there is an increase of 10% in investment in energy innovation. This increase is both in government-related funding and public/private sector investment. The pace has helped many companies blossom and brought ideas to light, but there are some risks that this may have peaked.
Outside of newer energy solutions, fossil fuels represent about 20% of the capital allocated to energy.
DALLAS, June 16, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Permex Petroleum Corporation (CSE: OIL) (OTCQB: OILCF) (FSE: 75P0) (“Permex” or the “Company“), is pleased to announce the extension of its early warrant exercise program (the “Program”), as initially announced by the Company in its news release dated May 18, 2023 (the “Initial News Release”).
The Program was announced with the intention to encourage the exercise of up to 1,015,869 unlisted common share purchase warrants of the Company (the “Eligible Warrants”). Pursuant to the Program, the Company amended the exercise price of the outstanding Eligible Warrants to USD$2.86 per Eligible Warrant, from May 18, 2023, at 9:00 a.m. (Vancouver time) until June 16, 2023 at 5:00 p.m. (Vancouver time). The Company now wishes to extend the Program until June 30, 2023 at 5:00 p.m. (the “Extended Exercise Deadline”).
As part of the Program, the Company will also offer, to each holder of Eligible Warrants (the “Warrant Holders”) who exercises any Eligible Warrants until the Extended Exercise Deadline, the issuance of one additional common share purchase warrant for each such exercised Eligible Warrant (each, an “Incentive Warrant”). Each Incentive Warrant entitles the Warrant Holder to purchase one common share of the Company (each, a “Share”) for a period of 5 years from the date of issuance, at a price of USD$4.50 per Share. The Company may also issue pre-funded common share purchase warrants (each, a “Pre-Funded Warrant”) in lieu of Shares, upon the exercise of Eligible Warrants, to certain Warrant Holders. Each Pre-Funded Warrant will allow the holder thereof to acquire one Share at a nominal exercise price of USD$0.01 and will not expire.
The Eligible Warrants which remain unexercised following the completion of the Extended Early Deadline will continue to be exercisable, on the terms existing immediately prior to the implementation of the Program, and no further Incentive Warrants will be granted on the exercise of the Eligible Warrants following the Extended Exercise Deadline.
For additional information on the Program, please refer to the Initial News Release.
The Incentive Warrants, and any securities issuable on the exercise thereof, will be subject to a four-month hold period from the date of issuance pursuant to applicable Canadian securities laws, in addition to such other restrictions as may apply under applicable securities laws of jurisdictions outside of Canada. None of the securities issued in connection with the Program will be registered upon issuance under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “1933 Act“), and none of them may be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the 1933 Act. The Company has agreed to file a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to register the Shares within 30 days of the end of the Extended Exercise Deadline. This news release shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy nor shall there be any sale of the securities in any state where such offer, solicitation, or sale would be unlawful.
Or for investor relations, please contact: Renmark Financial Communications Inc. Steve Hosein: shosein@renmarkfinancial.com Tel.: (416) 644-2020 or (212)-812-7680 www.renmarkfinancial.com
Forward Looking Statements
This release includes certain statements and information that may constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian and United States securities laws. Forward-looking statements relate to future events or future performance and reflect the expectations or beliefs of management of the Company regarding future events. Generally, forward-looking statements and information can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “intends” or “anticipates”, or variations of such words and phrases or statements that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “should”, “would” or “occur”. This information and these statements, referred to herein as “forward‐looking statements”, are not historical facts, are made as of the date of this news release and include without limitation, statements regarding discussions of future plans, estimates and forecasts and statements as to management’s expectations and intentions with respect to, among other things: the anticipated timing and completion of the Program.
These forward‐looking statements involve numerous risks and uncertainties and actual results might differ materially from results suggested in any forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, among other things: delays in obtaining or failures to obtain required regulatory approvals for the Program from the CSE; market uncertainty; and the inability of the Company to raise proceeds pursuant to the Program.
In making the forward-looking statements in this news release, the Company has applied several material assumptions, including without limitation, that: the Company will obtain the required CSE approval for the Program; and the Company will be able to raise proceeds under the Program.
Although management of the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in forward-looking statements or forward-looking information, there may be other factors that cause results not to be as anticipated, estimated or intended. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and forward-looking information. Readers are cautioned that reliance on such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. The Company does not undertake to update any forward-looking statement, forward-looking information or financial out-look that are incorporated by reference herein, except in accordance with applicable securities laws. We seek safe harbor.
DALLAS, June 16, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Permex Petroleum Corporation (CSE: OIL) (OTCQB: OILCF) (FSE:75P0) (“Permex” or the “Company”) announces that it has retained Renmark Financial Communications USA Inc. (“Renmark”), an arm’s length party to the Company, to provide investor relations services (the “Services”) to the Company.
Renmark was engaged to heighten market and investor awareness for the Company and broaden the Company’s reach within the investment community. In implementing its investor relations program, Renmark employs a number of different communication methods, including live phone calls and emails. To reach new potential investors, for an additional set-up fee, Renmark will organize virtual non-deal roadshows for senior management in zones across the USA, Canada, and Europe. Additionally, Renmark will ensure the timely disclosure of Company information to existing and potential shareholders and electronically send documents and factsheets to prospective shareholders.
Renmark has been engaged by the Company for an initial 7-month period (the “InitialTerm”) which commenced on May 1, 2023; the term will automatically continue after the Initial Term on a monthly basis, unless terminated in accordance with the investor relations agreement (the “Agreement”) among the parties.
As consideration for the Services, the Company will pay Renmark a monthly fee of USD$9,000, (the “MonthlyService Fee”) during the Initial Term. The Monthly Service Fee becomes payable on the first day of each month during the Initial Term. Renmark is also entitled to reimbursement for all expenses reasonably incurred, subject to the terms of the Agreement.
The Company and Renmark act at arm’s length, and Renmark has no present interest, directly or indirectly, in the Company or its securities, or any right or present intent to acquire such an interest.
About Permex Petroluem Corporation
Permex Petroleum is a uniquely positioned junior oil & gas company with assets and operations across the Permian Basin of West Texas and the Delaware Sub-Basin of New Mexico. The Company focuses on combining its low-cost development of Held by Production assets for sustainable growth with its current and future Blue-Sky projects for scale growth. The Company, through its wholly owned subsidiary, Permex Petroleum US Corporation, is a licensed operator in both states, and owns and operates on private, state and federal land. For more information, please visit www.permexpetroleum.com.
About Renmark Financial Communications USA Inc.
Renmark Financial Communications is a full-service investor relations firm representing small, medium, and large cap public companies trading on all major North American exchanges. Renmark facilitates connections between their clients and key stakeholders in order to assist their clients in efficiently achieving their milestones. Renmark has offices in Toronto, Montreal, New York, and Atlanta.
Or for Investor Relations, please contact: Renmark Financial Communications Inc. 121 King Street West Suite 1140 Toronto ON M5H 3T9
Steve Hosein: shosein@renmarkfinancial.com Tel.: (416) 644-2020 or (212)-812-7680 www.renmarkfinancial.com
Forward-Looking Statements
This news release contains forward-looking statements relating to Renmark heightening the market and investor awareness of the Company and broadening the Company’s reach within the investment community, fees payable to Renmark, and other statements that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements are often identified by terms such as “will”, “may”, “should”, “anticipate”, “expects” and similar expressions. All statements other than statements of historical fact, included in this release are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the Company’s expectations include those relating to the ability of Renmark to heighten the market and investor awareness of the Company and broaden the Company’s reach within the investment community, and other risks detailed from time to time in the filings made by the Company with securities regulations.
The reader is cautioned that assumptions used in the preparation of any forward-looking informationmay provetobeincorrect.Eventsorcircumstancesmaycauseactualresultstodiffermateriallyfromthose predictedasaresultofnumerousknownandunknownrisks,uncertainties,andotherfactors,manyof which are beyond the control of the Company. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance onany forward-looking information. Such information, although considered reasonable by management atthe time of preparation, may prove to be incorrect and actual results may differ materially fromthose anticipated.Forward-lookingstatementscontainedinthisnewsreleaseareexpresslyqualifiedbythis cautionarystatement.Theforward-lookingstatementscontainedinthisnewsreleasearemadeasofthe dateofthisnewsreleaseandtheCompanywillupdateorrevisepubliclyanyoftheincludedforward- looking statements as expressly required by applicablelaw.
CALGARY, AB, June 15, 2023 /CNW/ – Alvopetro Energy Ltd. (TSXV: ALV) (OTCQX: ALVOF) announces that our Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.14 per common share, payable in cash on July 14, 2023, to shareholders of record at the close of business on June 30, 2023. This dividend is designated as an “eligible dividend” for Canadian income tax purposes.
Dividend payments to non-residents of Canada will be subject to withholding taxes at the Canadian statutory rate of 25%. Shareholders may be entitled to a reduced withholding tax rate under a tax treaty between their country of residence and Canada. For further information, see Alvopetro’s website at https://alvopetro.com/Dividends-Non-resident-Shareholders.
Alvopetro Energy Ltd.’svision is to become a leading independent upstream and midstream operator in Brazil. Our strategy is to unlock the on-shore natural gas potential in the state of Bahia in Brazil, building off the development of our Caburé natural gas field and our strategic midstream infrastructure.
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.
All amounts contained in this new release are in United States dollars, unless otherwise stated and all tabular amounts are in thousands of United States dollars, except as otherwise noted.
Forward-Looking Statements and Cautionary Language.This news release contains “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The use of any of the words “will”, “expect”, “intend” and other similar words or expressions are intended to identify forward-looking information. Forward–looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties, should not be read as guarantees of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether or not such results will be achieved. A number of factors could cause actual results to vary significantly from the expectations discussed in the forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements reflect current assumptions and expectations regarding future events. Accordingly, when relying on forward-looking statements to make decisions, Alvopetro cautions readers not to place undue reliance on these statements, as forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties. More particularly and without limitation, this news release contains forward-looking information concerning the Company’s plans for dividends in the future, the timing and amount of such dividends and the expected tax treatment thereof. The forward–looking statements are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by Alvopetro, including but not limited to equipment availability, the timing of regulatory licenses and approvals, the success of future drilling, completion, testing, recompletion and development activities, the outlook for commodity markets and ability to access capital markets, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and other significant worldwide events, the performance of producing wells and reservoirs, well development and operating performance, foreign exchange rates, general economic and business conditions, weather and access to drilling locations, the availability and cost of labour and services, environmental regulation, including regulation relating to hydraulic fracturing and stimulation, the ability to monetize hydrocarbons discovered, expectations regarding Alvopetro’s working interest in properties and the outcome of any redeterminations, the regulatory and legal environment and other risks associated with oil and gas operations. The reader is cautioned that assumptions used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be incorrect. Actual results achieved during the forecast period will vary from the information provided herein as a result of numerous known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors. In addition, the declaration, timing, amount and payment of future dividends remain at the discretion of the Board of Directors. Although Alvopetro believes that the expectations and assumptions on which such forward-looking information is based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking information because Alvopetro can give no assurance that it will prove to be correct. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive. Additional information on factors that could affect the operations or financial results of Alvopetro are included in our annual information form which may be accessed on Alvopetro’s SEDAR profile at www.sedar.com. The forward-looking information contained in this news release is made as of the date hereof and Alvopetro undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws.
CALGARY, AB, June 1, 2023 /CNW/ – InPlay Oil Corp. (TSX: IPO) (OTCQX: IPOOF) (“InPlay” or the “Company”) is pleased to confirm that its Board of Directors has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.015 per common share payable on June 30, 2023, to shareholders of record at the close of business on June 15, 2023. The monthly cash dividend is expected to be designated as an “eligible dividend” for Canadian federal and provincial income tax purposes.
About InPlay Oil Corp.
InPlay is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.
SOURCE InPlay Oil Corp.
For further information: Doug Bartole, President and Chief Executive Officer, InPlay Oil Corp., Telephone: (587) 955-0632, www.inplayoil.com; Darren Dittmer, Chief Financial Officer, InPlay Oil Corp., Telephone: (587) 955-0634
Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Accelerated drilling is beginning to lead to strong production growth. Production rose 20% year over year and 7% quarter over quarter. After paring back drilling in 2020 when oil prices were low, the company has accelerated its drilling efforts. This has led to a doubling of production since 2020. With an active drilling program planned for the fall, look for production to show similar growth at the end of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024.
But basin differential issues are leading to lower-than-expected pricing. Oil prices fell 19% year over year, but HME’s realized oil price fell 32%. The differential has increased in recent quarters with the last three quarters being significantly larger both in absolute terms and on a percentage basis. We would note that other western Canadian oil producers have reported a similar widening of basin differential. Whatever the reason, it is worth tracking and making adjustments in our models to reflect the widening differential.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.
Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Production levels hit by curtailments. InPlay reported average quarterly production of 9,020 boe/d in the 2023-1Q vs. 8,221 boe/d for 2022-1Q, and below last quarter’s production and our expectations. Management indicated that gas curtailments reduced production by 625 boe/d. Increased back pressure has become an issue in recent quarters as production is rising faster than the infrastructure can handle, even as new infrastructure investments are being made.
Lower production caused bottom-line numbers to be below expectations. Although InPlay did a good job holding the line on costs, it was unable to offset the reduction in sales. As a result, management lowered cash flow guidance for the year. Cash flow should improve in upcoming quarters due to accelerated drilling activity including bringing two wells online with impressive flow rates.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
CALGARY, AB, May 12, 2023 /CNW/ – InPlay Oil Corp. (TSX: IPO) (OTCQX: IPOOF) (“InPlay” or the “Company”) announces its financial and operating results for the three months ended March 31, 2023. InPlay’s condensed unaudited interim financial statements and notes, as well as Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) for the three months ended March 31, 2023 will be available at “www.sedar.com” and our website at “www.inplayoil.com“. Our corporate presentation will soon be available on our website.
First Quarter 2023 Financial & Operating Highlights
Achieved average quarterly production of 9,020 boe/d(1) (58% light crude oil and NGLs), an increase of 21% on a debt adjusted per share basis compared to 8,221 boe/d(1) (59% light crude oil and NGLs) in the first quarter of 2022.
Generated strong quarterly adjusted funds flow (“AFF”)(2) of $21.3 million ($0.24 per weighted average basic share(3)).
Maintained balance sheet strength with a low net debt(2) to earnings before interest, taxes and depletion (“EBITDA”)(3) ratio of 0.4 on a trailing twelve month basis down from 1.0 in the first quarter of 2022.
Executed the most active quarter in the Company’s history drilling four (3.2 net) extended reach horizontal (“ERH”) wells in Willesden Green, two (2.0 net) ERH wells in Pembina and two (0.3 net) non-operated Willesden Green ERH wells. InPlay also started the upgrade of an operated gas facility in Willesden Green providing additional capacity. One (0.95 net) additional Willesden Green well which was planned for the second quarter was drilled in March and drilling operations began on another one (0.95 net) Willesden Green well in the first quarter.
Returned $4.4 million in the quarter directly to shareholders through $4.0 million in dividends and $0.4 million of share repurchases under the Company’s Normal Course Issuer Bid.
Realized net income of $9.3 million ($0.11 per basic share; $0.10 per diluted share).
Financial capability to deliver consistent returns to shareholders with the dividend supportable at a $55 WTI pricing environment until 2025.
First Quarter 2023 Financial & Operations Overview:
InPlay’s capital program for the first quarter of 2023 was the Company’s most active quarter in our history. During the quarter, InPlay invested $29.6 million drilling, completing and equipping four (3.2 net) ERH wells in Willesden Green, two (2.0 net) ERH wells in Pembina and two (0.3 net) non-operated Willesden Green ERH wells. Completion operations on two wells were advanced into the quarter that were originally planned to occur in the second quarter to ensure these wells could be brought on production prior to spring breakup. InPlay also advanced the initiation of its second quarter capital program into the first quarter by drilling in Willesden Green an additional one (0.95 net) ERH well in March and beginning the drilling operations on another one (0.95 net) ERH well. During the quarter, the Company also started construction on the first of two planned natural gas facility upgrades in Willesden Green in 2023.
In one area of Pembina, as published in our March 15, 2023 press release, the Company had natural gas production curtailments beginning February 15th from a third party natural gas facility due to capacity constraints. This impacted production in the quarter by approximately 475 boe/d (68% natural gas). InPlay actively responded to mitigate the impact of this curtailment on revenue by shutting in wells with high gas weightings, maximizing oil production and AFF in the strong oil pricing environment. The impact of the constraints was also mitigated by the fact that due to expected weaker natural gas pricing in 2023, InPlay previously shifted 2023 drilling plans away from this prolific production area due to its higher gas weighted production, and its higher gas processing fees in comparison to our Willesden Green property.
In Willesden Green, two (1.6 net) ERH wells that were brought on production in early February had average initial production (“IP”) rates per well of 579 boe/d (73% light crude oil and NGLs) and 428 boe/d (70% light crude oil and NGLs) over their first 30 and 60 days respectively. The Company also brought on production another two (1.6 net) ERH Willesden Green wells in early March. The average IP rates for these wells was 722 boe/d (82% light crude oil and NGLs) and 564 boe/d (81% light crude oil and NGLs) per well over their first 30 and 60 days respectively. These four wells have delivered IP rates significantly above internal expectations and their high production rates led to increased back pressure in the area resulting in operated and non-operated curtailments of approximately 150 boe/d (57% light crude oil and NGLs) during the quarter due to temporarily backing out production from our older lower pressured offsetting wells. During April, InPlay completed the upgrade on the first of two natural gas processing facilities in the Willesden Green area which allowed curtailed production to be brought back online.
Production averaged 9,020 boe/d (58% light crude oil & NGLs) (1) in the first quarter of 2023 resulting in $21.3 million of AFF. The impact on production due to the two above mentioned curtailments was approximately 625 boe/d (48% light crude oil & NGLs) in the first quarter of 2023. During the quarter, InPlay increased light oil and NGLs weighting by approximately 1.5% over the fourth quarter of 2022, and this weighting is expected to continue to increase as the Company is focused on drilling in areas with higher oil weightings.
Outlook and Operations Update(5)
InPlay continues to be excited about 2023 as our drilling continues to outperform our expectations including the two oil focused wells drilled in Pembina in the first quarter and brought on production in April. The two (2.0 net) ERH wells had average IP rates over their first 25 days of 307 boe/d (89% light crude oil and NGLs) per well, exceeding our internal forecasts with a strong oil and liquids weighting. These wells are expected to remain at an elevated oil weighting and flat for a few months as we continue to see strong pressures, decreasing water cuts and the artificial lift equipment is operating at maximum pumping capacity.
Capital activity planned for the second quarter will include completing and bringing on production three (2.9 net) ERH wells in Willesden Green which commenced drilling in March and finished in April. These wells are expected to be completed in late May and brought on production in early June. Continued work on our second significant upgrade to an operated natural gas plant in Willesden Green is also planned for the quarter. This upgrade is expected to be online in the second half of July and provides InPlay with considerable increased operated natural gas capacity to facilitate continued development and growth in Willesden Green in the current and future years. Drilling activity is expected to resume in late June or early July but overall capital spending in the second quarter is expected to be significantly lower than the first quarter providing strong free adjusted funds flow(3).
A three week turnaround at the Company’s largest non-operated midstream natural gas facility is expected to occur in June. InPlay proactively secured capacity at alternative facilities for a significant amount of impacted gas production and the production of oil and NGLs in the second quarter of 2023 is not expected to be materially affected.
InPlay responded quickly and effectively to address the production curtailments impacting the Company in the first quarter. Natural decline of InPlay and other operators’ production in Pembina continues to reduce the impact of curtailed production, which is currently estimated at 825 boe/d (68% natural gas), compared to the 950 boe/d (68% natural gas) impact during the last half of the first quarter. We expect natural declines will continue to reduce the impact of curtailed production through the summer and alternative options to bring the remaining curtailed production fully back online are currently being evaluated. The Company anticipates all curtailed production to be back online early in the fourth quarter of 2023 which will be sold into the much higher future winter natural gas prices.
Strong fundamentals have InPlay continuing to focus on high oil weighted properties as we have a much more favorable outlook for oil prices versus natural gas prices, specifically in the second half of 2023. This focus is due to light oil and NGLs representing an estimated 86% of our overall forecasted corporate revenue in 2023. The 2023 capital program will remain flexible and the Company will revisit this program should commodity prices continue to remain volatile.
Similar to other operators, InPlay has had production in the Pembina region affected by the recent wildfires in Alberta. Our first priority was ensuring the safety of our employees, contractors, the community and our infrastructure, which to date has been accomplished. The Company started shutting in production and facilities late on May 4th and had concluded shutting in all affected wells and facilities by late in the day on May 5th. Affected production shut in peaked at approximately 3,400 boe/d (52% light oil and liquids). Since the weekend the fire hazard has somewhat diminished in the area. Production has started to be brought back on over the past few days and we will continue to restart the remaining production down as services allow. We will continue to monitor the hazards and act accordingly. The Company thanks its field employees for their diligent and quick action in safely shutting in operations.
Strong results from our 2023 drilling program to date has InPlay reiterating our previous production guidance of 9,500 – 10,500 boe/d(1). However, given the curtailments experienced to date in 2023 and their expected impact over the next few quarters, the Company is forecasting 2023 average production to be within the lower half of this guidance at 9,500 – 10,000 boe/d(1) but at the higher end of our light crude oil and NGLs weighting guidance at 59% – 61%.
The Company continues to expect near term volatility in commodity prices, specifically natural gas prices, but with the United States refined product inventory levels at five year lows, oil inventory at the five year average and refineries starting back up after maintenance downtime, we anticipate the second half of 2023 to have higher oil prices. The Company’s downside exposure to lower forward summer 2023 natural gas prices are protected with hedges put in place of 12,500 GJ/day swaps at $3.73 AECO per GJ for April to October 2023. InPlay forecasts 2023 AFF(2) of $117 to $123 million with FAFF(3) of $37 to $48 million. The Company’s leverage metrics are forecasted to remain at very low levels, with net debt to EBITDA(3) forecast to be 0.0x – 0.2x for 2023.
The Company continues to remain focused on providing strong returns to shareholders through the payment of our monthly dividend of $0.015/share (which is expected to be only 13%-14% of forecasted 2023 AFF), timely share repurchases under our normal course issuer bid and top-tier production per debt adjusted share growth. The Company’s strong debt position, disciplined and adaptable capital allocation, and high quality asset base provides InPlay with a competitive advantage to continue to provide strong returns to shareholders in a volatile commodity pricing environment. The Company forecasts our base monthly dividend to be sustainable in a scenario where WTI dropped to US $55/bbl through to the end of 2025.
On behalf of our employees, management team and Board of Directors, we would like to thank our shareholders for their support and look forward to updating you on our progress throughout the year.
Notes:
1.
See “Production Breakdown by Product Type” at the end of this press release.
2.
Capital management measure. See “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” contained within this press release.
3.
Non-GAAP financial measure or ratio that does not have a standardized meaning under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and GAAP and therefore may not be comparable with the calculations of similar measures for other companies. Please refer to “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” contained within this press release.
4.
Supplementary financial measure. See “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” contained within this press release.
5.
See “Reader Advisories – Forward Looking Information and Statements” for key budget and underlying assumptions related to our previous and updated 2023 capital program and associated guidance.
Reader Advisories
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures
Throughout this press release and other materials disclosed by the Company, InPlay uses certain measures to analyze financial performance, financial position and cash flow. These non-GAAP and other financial measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed under GAAP and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. The non-GAAP and other financial measures should not be considered alternatives to, or more meaningful than, financial measures that are determined in accordance with GAAP as indicators of the Company performance. Management believes that the presentation of these non-GAAP and other financial measures provides useful information to shareholders and investors in understanding and evaluating the Company’s ongoing operating performance, and the measures provide increased transparency and the ability to better analyze InPlay’s business performance against prior periods on a comparable basis.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Ratios
Included in this document are references to the terms “free adjusted funds flow”, “operating income”, “operating netback per boe”, “operating income profit margin”, “Net Debt to EBITDA”, “Net Corporate Acquisitions”, “Debt adjusted production per share” and “EV / DAAFF”. Management believes these measures and ratios are helpful supplementary measures of financial and operating performance and provide users with similar, but potentially not comparable, information that is commonly used by other oil and natural gas companies. These terms do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and should not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than “profit (loss) before taxes”, “profit (loss) and comprehensive income (loss)”, “adjusted funds flow”, “capital expenditures”, “corporate acquisitions, net of cash acquired”, “net debt”, “weighted average number of common shares (basic)” or assets and liabilities as determined in accordance with GAAP as a measure of the Company’s performance and financial position.
Free Adjusted Funds Flow
Management considers FAFF an important measure to identify the Company’s ability to improve its financial condition through debt repayment and its ability to provide returns to shareholders. FAFF should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than AFF as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company’s performance. FAFF is calculated by the Company as AFF less exploration and development capital expenditures and property dispositions (acquisitions) and is a measure of the cashflow remaining after capital expenditures before corporate acquisitions that can be used for additional capital activity, corporate acquisitions, repayment of debt or decommissioning expenditures or potentially return of capital to shareholders. Refer below for a calculation of historical FAFF and to the “Forward Looking Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast FAFF.
Operating Income/Operating Netback per boe/Operating Income Profit Margin
InPlay uses “operating income”, “operating netback per boe” and “operating income profit margin” as key performance indicators. Operating income is calculated by the Company as oil and natural gas sales less royalties, operating expenses and transportation expenses and is a measure of the profitability of operations before administrative, share-based compensation, financing and other non-cash items. Management considers operating income an important measure to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates its field level profitability. Operating income should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than net income as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company’s performance. Operating netback per boe is calculated by the Company as operating income divided by average production for the respective period. Management considers operating netback per boe an important measure to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates its field level profitability per unit of production. Operating income profit margin is calculated by the Company as operating income as a percentage of oil and natural gas sales. Management considers operating income profit margin an important measure to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates how efficiently the Company generates field level profits from its sales revenue. Refer below for a calculation of operating income, operating netback per boe and operating income profit margin.
Net Debt to EBITDA
Management considers Net Debt to EBITDA an important measure as it is a key metric to identify the Company’s ability to fund financing expenses, net debt reductions and other obligations. EBITDA is calculated by the Company as adjusted funds flow before interest expense. When this measure is presented quarterly, EBITDA is annualized by multiplying by four. When this measure is presented on a trailing twelve month basis, EBITDA for the twelve months preceding the net debt date is used in the calculation. This measure is consistent with the EBITDA formula prescribed under the Company’s Senior Credit Facility. Net Debt to EBITDA is calculated as Net Debt divided by EBITDA. Refer below for a calculation of Net Debt to EBITDA and to the “Forward Looking Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast Net Debt to EBITDA.
Net Corporate Acquisitions
Management considers Net corporate acquisitions an important measure as it is a key metric to evaluate the corporate acquisition in comparison to other transactions using the negotiated consideration value and ignoring changes to the fair value of the share consideration between the signing of the definitive agreement and the closing of the transaction. Net corporate acquisitions should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than “Corporate acquisitions, net of cash acquired” as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company’s performance. Net corporate acquisitions is calculated as total consideration with share consideration adjusted to the value negotiated with the counterparty, less working capital balances assumed on the corporate acquisition. Refer below for a calculation of Net corporate acquisitions and reconciliation to the nearest GAAP measure, “Corporate acquisitions, net of cash acquired”.
Production per Debt Adjusted Share
InPlay uses “Production per debt adjusted share” as a key performance indicator. Debt adjusted shares should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than common shares as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company’s performance. Debt adjusted shares is a non-GAAP measure used in the calculation of Production per debt adjusted share and is calculated by the Company as common shares outstanding plus the change in net debt divided by the Company’s current trading price on the TSX, converting net debt to equity. Debt adjusted shares should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than weighted average number of common shares (basic) as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company’s performance. Management considers Debt adjusted share is a key performance indicator as it adjusts for the effects of capital structure in relation to the Company’s peers. Production per debt adjusted share is calculated by the Company as production divided by debt adjusted shares. Management considers Production per debt adjusted share is a key performance indicator as it adjusts for the effects of changes in annual production in relation to the Company’s capital structure. Refer below for a calculation of Production per debt adjusted share and to the “Forward Looking Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast Production per debt adjusted share.
EV / DAAFF
InPlay uses “enterprise value to debt adjusted AFF” or “EV/DAAFF” as a key performance indicator. EV/DAAFF is calculated by the Company as enterprise value divided by debt adjusted AFF for the relevant period. Debt adjusted AFF (“DAAFF”) is calculated by the Company as adjusted funds flow plus financing costs. Enterprise value is a capital management measures that is used in the calculation of EV/DAAFF. Enterprise value is calculated as the Company’s market capitalization plus working capital (net debt). Management considers enterprise value a key performance indicator as it identifies the total capital structure of the Company. Management considers EV/DAAFF a key performance indicator as it is a key metric used to evaluate the sustainability of the Company relative to other companies while incorporating the impact of differing capital structures. Refer to the “Forward Looking Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast EV/DAAFF.
Capital Management Measures
Adjusted Funds Flow
Management considers adjusted funds flow to be an important measure of InPlay’s ability to generate the funds necessary to finance capital expenditures. Adjusted funds flow is a GAAP measure and is disclosed in the notes to the Company’s financial statements for the three months ended March 31, 2023. All references to adjusted funds flow throughout this MD&A are calculated as funds flow adjusting for decommissioning expenditures and transaction and integration costs. Decommissioning expenditures are adjusted from funds flow as they are incurred on a discretionary and irregular basis and are primarily incurred on previous operating assets. Transaction costs are non-recurring costs for the purposes of an acquisition, making the exclusion of these items relevant in Management’s view to the reader in the evaluation of InPlay’s operating performance. The Company also presents adjusted funds flow per share whereby per share amounts are calculated using weighted average shares outstanding consistent with the calculation of profit per common share.
Net Debt / Working Capital
Net debt / working capital is a GAAP measure and is disclosed in the notes to the Company’s financial statements for three months ended March 31, 2023. The Company closely monitors its capital structure with a goal of maintaining a strong balance sheet to fund the future growth of the Company. The Company monitors net debt / working capital as part of its capital structure. The Company uses net debt / working capital (bank debt plus accounts payable and accrued liabilities less accounts receivables and accrued receivables, prepaid expenses and deposits and inventory) as an alternative measure of outstanding debt. Management considers net debt / working capital an important measure to assist in assessing the liquidity of the Company.
Supplementary Measures
“Average realized crude oil price” is comprised of crude oil commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s crude oil production. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.
“Average realized NGL price” is comprised of NGL commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s NGL production. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.
“Average realized natural gas price” is comprised of natural gas commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s natural gas production. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.
“Average realized commodity price” is comprised of commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s production. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.
“Adjusted funds flow per weighted average basic share” is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided by the basic weighted average common shares.
“Adjusted funds flow per weighted average diluted share” is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided by the diluted weighted average common shares.
“Adjusted funds flow per boe” is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided by total production.
Forward-Looking Information and Statements This news release contains certain forward–looking information and statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The use of any of the words “expect”, “anticipate”, “continue”, “estimate”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “should”, “believe”, “plans”, “intends”, “forecast” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking information or statements. In particular, but without limiting the foregoing, this news release contains forward-looking information and statements pertaining to the following: the Company’s business strategy, milestones and objectives; the Company’s planned 2023 capital program including wells to be drilled and completed and the timing of the same and that the operated natural gas plant in Willesden Green is expected to be online in the second half of July; 2023 guidance based on the planned capital program and all associated underlying assumptions set forth in this press release including, without limitation, forecasts of 2023 annual average production levels, debt adjusted production levels, adjusted funds flow, free adjusted funds flow, Net Debt/EBITDA ratio, operating income profit margin, and Management’s belief that the Company can grow some or all of these attributes and specified measures; light crude oil and NGLs weighting estimates; expectations regarding future commodity prices; future oil and natural gas prices; future liquidity and financial capacity; future results from operations and operating metrics; future costs, expenses and royalty rates; future interest costs; the exchange rate between the $US and $Cdn; future development, exploration, acquisition, development and infrastructure activities and related capital expenditures, including our planned 2023 capital program; the amount and timing of capital projects; forecasted spending on decommissioning; that the Company has the financial capability to deliver consistent return to shareholders and the dividend is supportable at a $55 WTI pricing environment until 2025; that the Company’s light oil and NGLs weighting is expected to continue to increase as the Company is focused on drilling in areas with higher oil weightings; that the production profile of the two Pembina wells brought on production in April is expected to remain flat for a few months; the expectation that the second quarter will provide strong free adjusted funds flow; the expectation that all curtailed production will be back online in the fourth quarter of 2023; and methods of funding our capital program.
Without limitation of the foregoing, readers are cautioned that the Company’s future dividend payments to shareholders of the Company, if any, and the level thereof will be subject to the discretion of the Board of Directors of InPlay. The Company’s dividend policy and funds available for the payment of dividends, if any, from time to time, is dependent upon, among other things, levels of FAFF, leverage ratios, financial requirements for the Company’s operations and execution of its growth strategy, fluctuations in commodity prices and working capital, the timing and amount of capital expenditures, credit facility availability and limitations on distributions existing thereunder, and other factors beyond the Company’s control. Further, the ability of the Company to pay dividends will be subject to applicable laws, including satisfaction of solvency tests under the Business Corporations Act (Alberta), and satisfaction of certain applicable contractual restrictions contained in the agreements governing the Company’s outstanding indebtedness.
Forward-looking statements or information are based on a number of material factors, expectations or assumptions of InPlay which have been used to develop such statements and information but which may prove to be incorrect. Although InPlay believes that the expectations reflected in such forward looking statements or information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements because InPlay can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition to other factors and assumptions which may be identified herein, assumptions have been made regarding, among other things: the impact of increasing competition; the general stability of the economic and political environment in which InPlay operates; the timely receipt of any required regulatory approvals; the ability of InPlay to obtain qualified staff, equipment and services in a timely and cost efficient manner; drilling results; the ability of the operator of the projects in which InPlay has an interest in to operate the field in a safe, efficient and effective manner; the ability of InPlay to obtain debt financing on acceptable terms; the timing and amount of purchases under the Company’s NCIB; the anticipated tax treatment of the monthly base dividend; field production rates and decline rates; the ability to replace and expand oil and natural gas reserves through acquisition, development and exploration; the timing and cost of pipeline, storage and facility construction and the ability of InPlay to secure adequate product transportation; future commodity prices; that various conditions to a shareholder return strategy can be satisfied; expectations regarding the potential impact of COVID-19 and the Russia/Ukraine conflict; currency, exchange and interest rates; regulatory framework regarding royalties, taxes and environmental matters in the jurisdictions in which InPlay operates; and the ability of InPlay to successfully market its oil and natural gas products.
The forward-looking information and statements included herein are not guarantees of future performance and should not be unduly relied upon. Such information and statements, including the assumptions made in respect thereof, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to defer materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking information or statements including, without limitation: the continuing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia/Ukraine conflict; inflation and the risk of a global recession; changes in our planned 2023 capital program; changes in our long range plan; changes in our approach to shareholder returns, including in relation to the Company’s NCIB and the timing and amount of any potential purchases thereunder; changes in commodity prices and other assumptions outlined herein; the risk that dividend payments may be reduced, suspended or cancelled; the potential for variation in the quality of the reservoirs in which we operate; changes in the demand for or supply of our products; unanticipated operating results or production declines; changes in tax or environmental laws, royalty rates or other regulatory matters; changes in development plans or strategies of InPlay or by third party operators of our properties; changes in our credit structure, increased debt levels or debt service requirements; inaccurate estimation of our light crude oil and natural gas reserve and resource volumes; limited, unfavorable or a lack of access to capital markets; increased costs; a lack of adequate insurance coverage; the impact of competitors; and certain other risks detailed from time-to-time in InPlay’s continuous disclosure documents filed on SEDAR including our Annual Information Form and our MD&A.
This press release contains future-oriented financial information and financial outlook information (collectively, “FOFI”) about InPlay’s financial and leverage targets and objectives, InPlay’s long-term forecast, and potential dividends and share buybacks, all of which are subject to the same assumptions, risk factors, limitations, and qualifications as set forth in the above paragraphs. The actual results of operations of InPlay and the resulting financial results will likely vary from the amounts set forth in this press release and such variation may be material. InPlay and its management believe that the FOFI has been prepared on a reasonable basis, reflecting management’s reasonable estimates and judgments. However, because this information is subjective and subject to numerous risks, it should not be relied on as necessarily indicative of future results. Except as required by applicable securities laws, InPlay undertakes no obligation to update such FOFI. FOFI contained in this press release was made as of the date of this press release and was provided for the purpose of providing further information about InPlay’s anticipated future business operations and strategy. Readers are cautioned that the FOFI contained in this press release should not be used for purposes other than for which it is disclosed herein.
The internal projections, expectations, or beliefs underlying our Board approved 2023 capital budget and associated guidance, as well as management’s preliminary estimates and targets in respect of plans for 2024 and beyond (which are not based on Board approved budgets at this time), are subject to change in light of, among other factors, the impact of world events including pandemics and the Russia/Ukraine conflict, ongoing results, prevailing economic circumstances, volatile commodity prices, and industry conditions and regulations. InPlay’s financial outlook and guidance provides shareholders with relevant information on management’s expectations for results of operations, excluding any potential acquisitions or dispositions, for such time periods based upon the key assumptions outlined herein. In this document reference is made to the Company’s longer range 2024 and beyond internal plan and associated economic model. Such information reflects internal estimates and targets used by management for the purposes of making capital investment decisions and for internal long range planning and budget preparation. Readers are cautioned that events or circumstances could cause capital plans and associated results to differ materially from those predicted and InPlay’s guidance for 2023, and more particularly 2024 and beyond, may not be appropriate for other purposes. Accordingly, undue reliance should not be placed on same.
The forward-looking information and statements contained in this news release speak only as of the date hereof and InPlay does not assume any obligation to publicly update or revise any of the included forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities laws.
Risk Factors to FLI
Risk factors that could materially impact successful execution and actual results of the Company’s 2023 capital program and associated guidance and long-term preliminary plans and estimates include:
volatility of petroleum and natural gas prices and inherent difficulty in the accuracy of predictions related thereto;
the extent of any unfavorable impacts of wildfires in the province of Alberta;
changes in Federal and Provincial regulations;
the Company’s ability to secure financing for the Board approved 2023 capital program and longer term capital plans sourced from AFF, bank or other debt instruments, asset sales, equity issuance, infrastructure financing or some combination thereof;
those additional risk factors set forth in the Company’s MD&A and most recent Annual Information Form filed on SEDAR
Key Budget and Underlying Material Assumptions to FLI
The key budget and underlying material assumptions used by the Company in the development of its current and previous 2023 guidance and preliminary estimates are as follows:
The change in the current 2023 guidance from prior guidance results from forecasted production to be within the lower half of guidance given the curtailments experienced to date in 2023 and their expected impact over the next few quarters as detailed in this press release.
The Company’s 2024 and 2025 preliminary plans remains the same as previously released January 18, 2023, with net debt (working capital) updated to reflect the updated 2023 ending net debt. The 2024 and 2025 preliminary plan guidance calculations which are impacted by this change and the change in assumed share price to $2.75 are outlined below.
See “Production Breakdown by Product Type” below
Quality and pipeline transmission adjustments may impact realized oil prices in addition to the MSW Differential provided above
Changes in working capital (net debt) are not assumed to have a material impact between the years presented above.
The assumptions above do not include potential future purchases through the Company’s NCIB.
Test Results and Initial Production Rates
Test results and initial production (“IP”) rates disclosed herein, particularly those short in duration, may not necessarily be indicative of long term performance or of ultimate recovery. A pressure transient analysis or well-test interpretation has not been carried out and thus certain of the test results provided herein should be considered to be preliminary until such analysis or interpretation has been completed.
Production Breakdown by Product Type
Disclosure of production on a per boe basis in this press release consists of the constituent product types as defined in NI 51–101 and their respective quantities disclosed in the table below:
References to crude oil, light oil, NGLs or natural gas production in this press release refer to the light and medium crude oil, natural gas liquids and conventional natural gas product types, respectively, as defined in National Instrument 51-101, Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“Nl 51-101”).
BOE equivalent Barrel of oil equivalents or BOEs may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of 6 mcf: 1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different than the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a 6:1 conversion basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
SOURCE InPlay Oil Corp.
For further information: Doug Bartole, President and Chief Executive Officer, InPlay Oil Corp., Telephone: (587) 955-0632; Darren Dittmer, Chief Financial Officer, InPlay Oil Corp., Telephone: (587) 955-0634
Alvopetro Energy Ltd.’s vision is to become a leading independent upstream and midstream operator in Brazil. Our strategy is to unlock the on-shore natural gas potential in the state of Bahia in Brazil, building off the development of our Caburé natural gas field and our strategic midstream infrastructure.
Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
2023-1Q results continued a steady upward production trend and biannual gas price resetting that has lead to higher revenues, fund flow from operations, and earnings. Results were generally in line with expectations. Although gas sales and prices were previously disclosed, total revenues were slightly below expectations due to lower natural gas liquid pricing. Royalty rates fell sharply due to a restructuring and lower natural gas prices.
Sale decline further explained. April volumes averaged 1,972 boepd vs. 2023-1Q production of 2,767 boepd. Management cited reduced demand and higher nominated volumes from its partner in the Cabure unit. Sales in the Cabure field are subject to a partnership agreement based on reserves in the ground. Alvopetro’s partner can then nominate the amount of reserves that are sold from its “piggy bank.” Bahia Gas, the consumer of Alvopetro’s gas supply, can take gas on a firm or interruptible basis. For a 7-10 day period, it took gas primarily from firm customers decreasing the demand for other customers.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Largo has a long and successful history as one of the world’s preferred vanadium companies through the supply of its VPURE™ and VPURE+™ products, which are sourced from one of the world’s highest-grade vanadium deposits at the Company’s Maracás Menchen Mine in Brazil. Aiming to enhance value creation at Largo, the Company is in the process of implementing a titanium dioxide pigment plant using feedstock sourced from its existing operations in addition to advancing its U.S.-based clean energy division with its VCHARGE vanadium batteries. Largo’s VCHARGE vanadium batteries contain a variety of innovations, enabling an efficient, safe and ESG-aligned long duration solution that is fully recyclable at the end of its 25+ year lifespan. Producing some of the world’s highest quality vanadium, Largo’s strategic business plan is based on two pillars: 1.) leading vanadium supplier with an outlined growth plan and 2.) U.S.-based energy storage business support a low carbon future.
Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Quarterly results reviewed. As indicated in an earlier report, first-quarter results were generally in line with expectations. Revenues ran a bit above expectations on favorable pricing, but costs were higher than expected as well.
Production and sales guidance reductions. Management reduced production and sales guidance by roughly 20% due to drilling delays caused by wet weather. Management explained that vanadium production requires blending, and we believe regular drilling is needed to identify blending supplies. Drilling has resumed, and management should have a better idea what production and sales could look like for the rest of 2024 soon.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Largo has a long and successful history as one of the world’s preferred vanadium companies through the supply of its VPURE™ and VPURE+™ products, which are sourced from one of the world’s highest-grade vanadium deposits at the Company’s Maracás Menchen Mine in Brazil. Aiming to enhance value creation at Largo, the Company is in the process of implementing a titanium dioxide pigment plant using feedstock sourced from its existing operations in addition to advancing its U.S.-based clean energy division with its VCHARGE vanadium batteries. Largo’s VCHARGE vanadium batteries contain a variety of innovations, enabling an efficient, safe and ESG-aligned long duration solution that is fully recyclable at the end of its 25+ year lifespan. Producing some of the world’s highest quality vanadium, Largo’s strategic business plan is based on two pillars: 1.) leading vanadium supplier with an outlined growth plan and 2.) U.S.-based energy storage business support a low carbon future.
Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Largo reported 2023-1Q results generally in line with our recently-revised estimates. Revenues were a few million higher than expected, but so were operating costs, leading to operating income near expectations. Income tax expenses of $1.8 million on $0.7 million of pretax income were unexpected causing a $1.2 million net loss ($0.02 p/s) versus our expectations for breakeven results. We will seek clarification on the 268% tax rate during the upcoming conference call (5/11 at 1:00 pm EST, 1-416-764-8650).
Production and sales numbers lowered for the rest of the year. Management lowered annual production guidance to 9,000-11,000 tonnes from 11,000-13,000 tonnes. It also lowered sales to 8,700-10,700 tonnes from 10,300-11,300 tonnes and raised the upper range of its operating costs per unit sold projections. The declines were split across the second, third, and fourth quarters implying that the heavy rainfall in December that affected inventory may continue longer than expected. We have adjusted the numbers in our models to reflect updated guidance.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
