Tag: Ecommerce

The Rise of Chinese E-commerce Giants and Their Impact on US Tech Earnings

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Temu and Shein’s rapid growth in the US market is influencing tech earnings and competition.
– These platforms leverage low prices and aggressive marketing strategies to gain market share.
– The impact of Chinese e-commerce companies on US tech giants raises questions about fair competition and trade policies.

In recent months, the e-commerce landscape in the United States has been dramatically altered by the meteoric rise of Chinese discount shopping apps Temu and Shein. As Wall Street prepares for the latest round of tech earnings reports, the influence of these platforms on industry giants like Amazon, Meta, and eBay is becoming increasingly apparent.

Temu and Shein have captured the attention of American consumers with their rock-bottom prices and aggressive marketing campaigns. Temu, which launched in the US in 2022, quickly surpassed established social media apps in popularity on the Apple App Store. Shein, present in the US market since 2017, has seen similar success. Both platforms offer incredibly low-priced goods, such as $3 shoes or $15 smartwatches, directly from Chinese manufacturers to American consumers.

The success of these platforms is partially attributed to a trade loophole known as the de minimis exception. This rule allows packages valued under $800 to enter the US duty-free, giving Chinese retailers a significant competitive advantage. Amazon’s top public policy executive, David Zapolsky, has expressed concern about this trend, suggesting that some business models may be unfairly subsidized.

The impact of Temu and Shein extends beyond just e-commerce. Their substantial ad spending has become a significant revenue source for companies like Google and Facebook. However, recent data suggests that Temu may be adjusting its marketing strategy, potentially affecting ad revenue for these tech giants.

Established e-commerce players are responding to this new competition in various ways. Amazon, while emphasizing its delivery speed advantage, is reportedly planning to launch its own discount store featuring unbranded items priced below $20. eBay has stressed its differentiated selection, while Etsy has highlighted its focus on artisan goods.

The rise of these Chinese platforms has also sparked discussions about fair competition and trade policies. US officials, along with their counterparts in the European Union, are considering closing the de minimis loophole, which could significantly impact the growth of Temu and Shein.

Despite the challenges posed by these new entrants, analysts suggest that major players like Amazon and Walmart are relatively insulated from the competition. The established e-commerce giants’ superior shipping speeds and extensive logistics networks provide a significant competitive advantage.

As the tech industry braces for the upcoming earnings reports, all eyes will be on how companies address the impact of Temu and Shein. Investors will be particularly interested in any commentary on changes in e-commerce marketplaces and shifts in ad spending patterns.

The story of Temu and Shein’s rise in the US market is more than just a tale of successful market entry. It represents a shifting dynamic in global e-commerce, raising important questions about international trade policies, fair competition, and the future of retail. As these Chinese platforms continue to grow and evolve, their impact on the US tech industry and broader economy will likely remain a topic of intense scrutiny and debate.

Shein Files Confidentially for U.S. IPO, Seeks to Capture Investor Interest

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Chinese fast fashion juggernaut Shein has filed confidentially for an initial public offering in the U.S., positioning itself to become one of the most highly-anticipated public debuts. As Shein aims to expand its global empire and enormous valuation, the company will need to convince investors it can overcome mounting controversies.

Currently privately held with an estimated $66 billion valuation, Shein is seeking to capitalize on surging investor appetite for ecommerce platforms. By targeting Gen Z and millennial shoppers with on-trend fast fashion at rock-bottom prices, Shein has experienced explosive growth. The company could start trading publicly in the U.S. as early as 2024 if it gains regulatory approval.

Shein Hopes to Captivate Ecommerce Investors

As a digital-only retailer with minimal storefronts, Shein epitomizes many of today’s leading ecommerce firms. With targeted influencer marketing and constantly updated inventory, Shein has won over young consumers across the globe. Revenues reached nearly $16 billion in 2021, making Shein one of the largest fashion retailers based on sales.

This rapid ascent has drawn comparisons to platforms like Pinduoduo and Meituan in China. Shein hopes investors will value it similarly and overlook the controversies it has battled along the way. Skeptics, however, point to lingering risks that could limit Shein’s appeal.

Mounting Concerns Create Obstacles for Shein’s IPO

While Shein has taken steps to revamp public perception, the company faces no shortage of detractors. Lawmakers across the political spectrum have raised alarms over Shein’s supply chain and environmental harms.

Accused of using labor from China’s Xinjiang region linked to human rights abuses, Shein must convince regulators it complies with ethical sourcing standards. The shadowy leadership of founder and CEO Sky Xu also clashes with typical corporate governance. As other Chinese firms face heightened scrutiny and even delisting threats in the U.S., Shein’s close China ties could hamper its reception.

Alongside these issues, fast fashion business models face growing backlash for fueling waste and pollution. Though unlikely to vanish overnight, changing consumer preferences add uncertainty to the sector’s outlook.

Betting on Shein’s Growth Trajectory

While risks abound, Shein’s blockbuster financials may simply be too impressive for investors to ignore. Early in its life as a public firm, revenue expansion and user growth will remain the key metrics to watch.

As a veteran of the ultra-fast fashion space, Shein has proven adept at riding waves of consumer demand. The recent downturn for stocks like Farfetch and Revolve point to lingering appetite for digital fashion platforms. Though controversies cast a shadow, for risk-tolerant investors, getting in early with Shein could bring substantial rewards.

Black Friday 2023 Kicks Off After Strong Online Sales on Thanksgiving

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Black Friday 2023 is officially here, kicking off the year’s biggest shopping weekend both online and in stores. Early indicators suggest consumers are hungry for deals, with e-commerce sales on Thanksgiving Day jumping 5.5% year-over-year to $5.6 billion according to Adobe Analytics.

The robust online sales activity on Turkey Day comes ahead of an expected $9.6 billion in Cyber Monday revenue, a 5.7% increase from last year. While these growth figures represent a slowdown from the blistering pace set during the pandemic, they highlight that holiday shoppers are still responding to discounts even amidst broader economic uncertainty.

This sets the stage for a pivotal Black Friday that may determine whether projections for up to 4% gains in total holiday sales materialize. Shoppers are expected to turn out in force to scoop up deals on popular items like toys, apparel, jewelry, and consumer tech that were top sellers online on Thanksgiving.

Mobile Shopping Surge Drives Online Revenue

Fueling the growth in Thanksgiving e-commerce sales is the continued surge in smartphone shopping. A record 59% of online revenue came from mobile devices as people browsed and bought gifts on the go. With mobile penetration rising every year, retailers have adapted their sites and apps to make it easier for iPhone and Android users to capitalize on promotions.

Savvy shoppers are discovering they can beat crowds and inventory shortages by taking advantage of online-only deals as well as ordering online and picking up in store. Retailers are encouraging this omnichannel behavior by making curbside pickup fast and frictionless. The convenience of mobile ordering combined with flexible fulfillment options underlies the shift towards more Thanksgiving and Black Friday spending happening digitally.

Top Deals Entice Consumers

Despite economic pressures from inflation and higher interest rates, consumers have shown a willingness to spend when the price is right. Adobe tracked toys discounted up to 28%, electronics up to 27% off, and computers 22% off on Thanksgiving, leading to triple-digit surge in those categories versus October.

Amazon and Target rolled out additional Black Friday toy deals with major markdowns on Barbie dream campers, Marvel action figures, and Nintendo Switch gaming bundles expected to rank among the most popular purchases.

Similarly, doors opening early at retailers like Best Buy, Walmart, and Apple will likely attract shoppers chasing deals on big-screen TVs, Bluetooth speakers, tablets, and the hot new Airpods Pro 2 earbuds. Though buying conditions are tougher this year, bargain hunters still prioritize snagging discounted must-have gifts for loved ones.

What’s at Stake for Retailers

While Thanksgiving and Black Friday don’t determine overall holiday fortunes, they set the tone for retailers during the critical year-end sales period. Those who miss targets this weekend play catch-up and may have to result to profit-busting promotions to move stagnant inventory later in December.

However, retailers who excite shoppers out the gates with alluring deals and experiences create positive momentum they can ride into the New Year. The outperformance of those players better able to adapt to the mobile and omnichannel-centric future of holiday shopping will be on full display this weekend.

For consumers, the state of Black Friday offers clues into buying conditions for the next month as they weigh completing wish lists amidst budget realities. With early reads tilting positive, cautious optimism seems warranted – though restraint may still pay off waiting to see if deals sweeten further in December.

One thing is certain: all eyes turn to how activity plays out on the unofficial start to the holiday sales season. Black Friday retains symbolic importance for retailers and consumers alike – so expect the 2023 version to again provide intrigue and insights into the health of the US consumer.

Shein Sets Sights on $90 Billion Valuation for Highly Anticipated US IPO

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Shein, the Chinese fast fashion juggernaut, is aiming to achieve a massive $80-90 billion valuation in its eventual US stock market debut according to sources familiar with the company’s IPO plans.

The online fashion retailer has quickly become one of the largest in the world on the back of its ultra-fast production cycles and rock bottom pricing. Shein boasts a selection of over 5,000 fashion items with over 1,000 new products added daily. This rapid launch cadence along with AI-driven fashion designs and targeted social media marketing have supercharged Shein’s popularity among Gen Z consumers.

Shein’s meteoric rise has made it one of the most valuable private companies in the world. The company hit a $100 billion valuation in its last funding round in 2021. However, subsequent secondary market trades of Shein shares revealed erosion in its value, with estimates between $50-60 billion earlier this year.

The firm is looking to capitalize on the growth in online shopping with its planned US stock exchange listing. Shein is aiming to raise around $2 billion from public market investors as it continues its quest for global fashion industry dominance.

Shein has not officially confirmed its IPO plans yet, but is said to be targeting the second half of 2023 for its market debut. The timing remains in flux given the recent stock market volatility and economic uncertainty.

Unlike most ecommerce firms, Shein has claimed profitability since its inception. The company boasts strong margins partly derived from minimal advertising spend. Shein instead relies extensively on social media influencers and word-of-mouth among its primarily Gen Z fanbase.

The Chinese company does not disclose its financials publicly, but reportedly generated over $16 billion in sales in 2021. It has also expanded aggressively in Europe, the US and other international markets. Shein’s app was the second most downloaded shopping app globally on iOS last year after Amazon.

However, Shein faces controversies around alleged labor rights violations, plagiarized designs, and environmental concerns related to its fast fashion model. Critics also argue the opacity around its operations and finances warrant closer regulatory scrutiny especially as it plans to go public.

Shein’s US IPO will be a key test of investor appetite for cash-burning technology unicorns in the current market. Chinese companies listing in the US also face tighter regulations now. A number of them have opted instead for Hong Kong and domestic China exchanges more recently.

Nonetheless, the online fashion giant has its sights set firmly on tapping into public markets to fuel its next wave of worldwide expansion. Shein aims to leverage its digital-first model and supply chain agility to continue eating market share from struggling traditional retailers.

If Shein manages to pull off a $90 billion IPO, it would rank as one of the largest US listings ever for a foreign company. The blockbuster offering could set the stage for Shein to disrupt the global fashion hierarchy dominated by H&M, Zara and other legacy incumbents.

Take a look at Vera Bradley, a leading designer of women’s handbags, luggage and other travel items, fashion and home accessories.

Klaviyo Shares Jump 23% in NYSE Debut, Providing Another Tech IPO Opportunity

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Shares of marketing software firm Klaviyo jumped 23% in their trading debut Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange. The successful initial public offering provides investors a rare opportunity to buy into a high-growth U.S. tech startup following a nearly two-year IPO drought.

Klaviyo priced its shares at $30 each, raising $345 million and valuing the company at over $9 billion on a fully diluted basis. The listing comes just a day after grocery delivery service Instacart went public on the Nasdaq after cutting its valuation target. Investor appetite for unprofitable technology names has waned in recent years amid rising interest rates.

But demand for Klaviyo shares was strong right out of the gate. For investors, IPOs provide a chance to gain exposure to emerging, innovative companies before they are available on public markets. Companies utilize IPOs to raise cash for growth and operating expenses.

Klaviyo reported revenue jumped 51% last quarter to $165 million, as its marketing automation software is now used by over 130,000 customers. The company swung to a $11 million profit last quarter after losing money a year earlier.

This transition to profitability is an attractive quality for investors who have soured on money-losing technology firms in the current environment. One major backer providing strong IPO demand is e-commerce platform Shopify, which owns around 11% of Klaviyo’s shares.

Klaviyo gets approximately 78% of its annual recurring revenue from customers who also use Shopify, indicating close ties between the two tech firms. Shopify invested $100 million into Klaviyo last year.

The marketing software provider enables companies to store customer data and build profiles to target marketing campaigns across email, text messaging, social media, and other channels. It initially focused on e-commerce companies but is now seeing growing traction in other sectors like restaurants, travel, and entertainment.

Tech IPOs ground to a halt in 2022, as surging inflation led the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates, sparking volatility and a flight from risk assets. Klaviyo is the first notable U.S. venture-backed software IPO since HashiCorp and Samsara debuted in December 2021.

The offering provides investors hungry for exposure to high-growth tech the chance to buy into a next-generation software vendor. U.S. tech IPOs slowed to their lowest level in over a decade last year. If strong demand for Klaviyo shares continues, it could open the door for more tech IPOs in 2023.

Companies that only recently considered going public may once again pursue IPOs after Klaviyo’s success. The IPO window for unprofitable tech names appeared shut, but Klaviyo’s ability to raise over $340 million shows investors still have appetite for rapidly growing software vendors.

Looking ahead, the pipeline for tech IPOs includes names like Reddit, Databricks and Discord. But many may delay plans or explore direct listings to avoid leaving money on the table like Instacart. If markets grow choppy again, Klaviyo’s offering window could close as quickly as it opened.

For now, its strong first day of trading is a boon for both the company and tech investors. Early buyers are already sitting on sizable gains from an asset class that struggled last year. If the tech IPO market thaws, it would provide investors access to the high-growth innovators driving the future.

Instacart Shares Surge 40% in Strong Nasdaq Debut

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Instacart experienced a red-hot debut on the public markets as shares soared 40% in its first day of trading. The grocery delivery pioneer opened at $42 per share on the Nasdaq exchange, well above its IPO price of $30.

The opening trade valued Instacart at nearly $14 billion, up from the $10 billion valuation set by its IPO pricing on Monday. Demand from investors seeking exposure to the future of grocery commerce drove the shares sharply higher out of the gate.

Trading volume was heavy early on, with over 18 million shares changing hands in the first 30 minutes. The stock traded as high as $47.57 at its peak, showcasing strong appetite for the newly minted public company.

Instacart (CART) raised $420 million through the IPO by selling 14.1 million shares, representing just 8% of its total outstanding shares. Existing shareholders also sold 7.9 million shares in the offering for liquidity.

The blockbuster debut delivered significant returns for IPO participants during a volatile time for tech stocks. But Instacart’s valuation remains below the $39 billion mark it reached at the height of pandemic demand in 2021, reflecting more measured recent tech valuations.

Still, the strong first day pop is a promising sign for Instacart as it embarks on the public market journey. The company priced its offering conservatively to allow room for an impressive inaugural rally.

The offering adds Instacart to the ranks of publicly traded ecommerce innovators disrupting traditional retail models. It joins the likes of DoorDash, Uber, and Amazon in leveraging technology to unlock the potential of online grocery delivery.

Instacart is at the forefront of transforming the $1 trillion grocery industry through its on-demand digital marketplace. Its platform connects customers with personal shoppers who handle orders from partner grocers and deliver items in as fast as an hour.

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Founded in 2012 by an Amazon veteran, Instacart was early to recognize the coming wave of grocery ecommerce. The company scaled rapidly when the pandemic accelerated adoption of online ordering and delivery.

Instacart seized its first-mover advantage to emerge as a leader in the space. It has partnered with prominent national, regional, and local grocers to build a retail network covering over 85% of U.S. households.

The company aligned with shifting consumer preferences for convenience and digital experiences. Busy lifestyles and smartphone ubiquity make grocery delivery a killer app of modern ecommerce.

Instacart smartly invested to expand services like fast unstaffed delivery and self-service pickup. Its Instacart Ads platform also lets brands promote products through sponsored listings.

The company rapidly grew revenue to over $7 billion in 2021 during the pandemic-driven surge. More recently it has focused on boosting profitability as demand normalizes post-Covid.

Instacart generated $14 billion in gross merchandise volume in 2021. Its net revenue neared $2 billion, doubling from 2020. But losses have narrowed dramatically since the company turned EBITDA positive last year.

As the first major tech IPO of 2023, Instacart’s trading provides a blueprint for startups and venture investors awaiting public debuts this year. The initial reception indicates persistent investor appetite for innovative tech names with strong growth narratives.

The blockbuster debut opens an exciting new chapter for Instacart and the future of digital grocery. Its first trading day validated Instacart’s pioneering business model and resilient growth prospects.