Tag: Crude

Oil Rallies on Middle East Tensions Despite Questions Over Demand Growth

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Oil prices are on track to post gains this week, driven higher by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East despite ongoing concerns about still high inflation and a cloudy demand outlook.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures have risen approximately 2% week-to-date and were trading around $78 per barrel on Friday. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was up 1.8% on the week to $83 per barrel.

According to analysts, speculative traders and funds are bidding up oil futures based on worries that simmering conflicts in the Middle East could disrupt global supplies. Volatility and uncertainty in the region tends to spur speculative trading in oil markets.

“This is geopolitics with flashing flights, it points right to specs taking advantage of the situation,” said Bob Yawger, managing director at Mizuho America. “They’re rolling the dice expecting something will happen.”

Tensions have escalated on the border between Israel and Lebanon after Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon this week in retaliation for rocket attacks from the area. The powerful Lebanese militia Hezbollah has vowed to strike back against Israel in response.

There are worries the Israel-Lebanon clashes could spread to a wider conflict, potentially including Israel’s ongoing offensive in Gaza. This could disrupt oil production or transit through the critical Suez Canal. The Middle East accounted for nearly 30% of global oil production last year.

Prices Shake Off Demand Worries

Notably, crude prices have shaken off downward pressure this week from stubbornly high inflation as well as forecasts for weaker demand growth in 2024.

US consumer and wholesale inflation reports this week came in hotter than expected. Persistently high inflation reduces the chances of the Federal Reserve pivoting to interest rate cuts this year which could otherwise boost oil demand.

Demand outlooks for 2024 have also been murky. The International Energy Agency (IEA) downwardly revised its 2024 oil demand growth forecast to 1.2 million barrels per day, half of 2023’s pace. It sees supply growth outpacing demand this year.

However, OPEC offered a more bullish view in its latest report, projecting world oil demand will increase by 2.2 million barrels per day in 2024. The cartel sees demand growth exceeding non-OPEC supply growth.

Investors Shake Off Bearish Signals

Given the conflicting demand forecasts, the resilience of oil prices likely reflects investor optimism over tightening fundamentals outweighing potentially bearish signals.

“There is and has been a yawning chasm in demand estimates,” said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM brokerage. “The difference of opinions in global oil consumption for this year and the individual quarters, even for the current one, is clearly puzzling.”

Ultimately, lingering Middle East geopolitical risks appear to be overshadowing inflation and demand concerns in driving investor sentiment. With tensions still elevated, investors seem positioned for further volatility and potential price spikes on any supply disruptions.

The diverging demand forecasts and data points mean uncertainty persists around whether markets will tighten as much as OPEC expects or remain oversupplied per the IEA outlook. But with inventories still low by historical standards, prices have room to run higher on any bullish shocks.

What’s Next For Oil Markets

Looking ahead, Middle East tensions, China’s reopening, and the extent of Fed rate hikes will be key drivers of oil price trends. Any military escalation or supply disruptions from the Israel-Lebanon tensions could send crude prices spiking higher.

China’s demand recovery as it exits zero-Covid policies will also remain in focus. Signs of China’s crude imports and manufacturing activity reviving could offer a bullish boost to prices.

At the same time, stubborn inflation likely keeps the Fed on track for further rate hikes in the near term. Only clear signs of slowing price growth might promptdiscussion of rate cuts to stimulate growth. For now, Fed policy looks set to weigh on oil demand and limit significant upside.

Overall, investors should brace for continued volatility in oil markets in 2024. While prices may trend higher on tight supplies, lingering demand uncertainties and geo-political tensions look set to drive choppy price action. Nimble investors able to capitalize on price spikes and dips may find opportunities. But those with a lower risk tolerance may wish to stay on the sidelines until fundamentals stabilize.

Oil Prices Drop on Angola OPEC Exit, US Production Increases Amid Red Sea Worries

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Oil prices fell over $1 a barrel on Thursday after Angola announced its departure from OPEC, while record US crude output and persistent worries over Red Sea shipping added further pressure.

Brent crude futures dropped $1.30 to $78.40 a barrel in afternoon trading, bringing losses to nearly 2% this week. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also slid $1.19 to $73.03 per barrel.

The declines came after Angola’s oil minister said the country will be leaving OPEC in 2024, saying its membership no longer serves national interests. While Angola’s production of 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) is minor on a global scale, the move raises uncertainty about the unity and future cohesion of the OPEC+ alliance.

At the same time, surging US oil output continues to weigh on prices. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed US production hitting a fresh peak of 13.3 million bpd last week, up from 13.2 million bpd.

The attacks on oil tankers transiting the narrow Bab el-Mandeb strait at the mouth of the Red Sea have forced shipping companies to avoid the area. This is lengthening voyage times and increasing freight rates, adding to oil supply concerns.

So far the disruption has been minimal, as most Middle East crude exports flow through the Strait of Hormuz. But the risks of broader supply chain headaches are mounting.

Balancing Act for Oil Prices

Oil prices have stabilized near $80 per barrel after a volatile year, as slowing economic growth and China’s COVID-19 battles dim demand, while the OPEC+ alliance constrains output.

The expected global demand rise of 1.9 million bpd in 2023 is relatively sluggish. And while the OPEC+ coalition agreed to cut production targets by 2 million bpd from November through 2023, actual output reductions are projected around just 1 million bpd as several countries struggle to pump at quota levels.

As a result, much depends on US producers. EIA predicts America will deliver nearly all new global supply growth next year, churning out an extra 850,000 bpd versus 2022.

With the US now rivaling Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s largest oil producer, its drilling rates are pivotal for prices. The problem for OPEC+ is that high prices over $90 per barrel incentivize large gains in US shale output.

Most analysts see Brent prices staying close to $80 per barrel in 2024, though risks are plentiful. A global recession could crater demand, while a resolution on Iranian nuclear talks could unlock over 1 million bpd in sanctions-blocked supply.

The Russia-Ukraine war also continues clouding the market, especially with the EU’s looming ban on Russian seaborne crude imports.

Take a moment to take a look at some emerging growth energy companies by looking at Noble Capital Markets’ Senior Research Analyst Michael Heim’s coverage list.

Impact of Angola’s OPEC Exit

In announcing its departure, Angola complained that OPEC+ was unfairly reducing its production quota for 2024 despite years of over-compliance and output declines.

The country’s oil production has dropped from close to 1.9 million bpd in 2008 to just over 1 million bpd this year. A lack of investment in exploration and development has sapped its oil fields.

The OPEC+ cuts seem to have been the final straw, with Angola saying it needs to focus on national energy strategy rather than coordinating policy within the 13-member cartel.

The move makes Angola the first member to leave OPEC since Qatar exited in 2019. While it holds little sway over global prices, it does spark questions over the unity and future cohesion of OPEC+, especially if other African members follow suit.

Most analysts, however, believe the cartel will hold together as key Gulf members and Russia continue dominating policy. OPEC+ still controls over 40% of global output, giving it unrivaled influence over prices through its supply quotas.

But UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo points out that “prices still fell on concern of the unity of OPEC+ as a group.” If more unrest and exits occur, it could chip away at the alliance’s price control power.

For now OPEC+ remains focused on its landmark deal with Russia and supporting prices through 2024. Yet US producers are the real wild card, with their response to higher prices determining whether OPEC+ can balance the market or will lose more market share in years ahead.

Oil Prices Plunge As OPEC+ Delays Key Output Decision

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Oil markets were thrown into turmoil on Wednesday after the OPEC+ alliance unexpectedly postponed a critical meeting to determine production levels. Prices promptly plunged over 5% as hopes for additional output cuts to stabilize crude markets were dashed, at least temporarily.

The closely-watched meeting was originally slated for December 3-4. But OPEC+, which includes the 13 member countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries along with Russia and other non-members, said the summit would now take place on December 6 instead, offering no explanation for the delay.

The last-minute postponement fueled speculation that the group is struggling to build consensus around boosting production cuts aimed at reversing oil’s steep two-month slide. Disagreements apparently center on Saudi dissatisfaction with other nations flouting their output quotas. Compliance has emerged as a major flashpoint as oil revenue pressures intensify amid rising recession fears.

Prices Rally on Cut Hopes

In recent weeks, oil had rebounded from mid-October lows on mounting expectations that OPEC+ would intervene to tighten supply and put a floor under prices once more.

The alliance has already removed over 5 million barrels per day since 2023 through unilateral Saudi production cuts and collective OPEC+ reductions. But crude has continued drifting lower, with Brent plunging below $80 per barrel last week for the first time since January.

Demand outlooks have deteriorated significantly, especially in China where crude imports fell in October to their lowest since 2007. At the same time, releases from strategic petroleum reserves and resilient non-OPEC production have expanded inventories, exacerbating the supply glut.

Output Quotas Trigger Internal Rifts

Energy analysts widely anticipate that OPEC+ will finalize plans at next week’s rescheduled talks to extend existing production cuts until mid-2024. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the alliance’s de factor leaders, both support additional trims.

However, firming up commitments from the broader group may prove challenging. Crude exports are critical to the economies of many member nations. With government budgets squeezed by weakened prices, some countries have little incentive to curb production.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that Saudi Arabia demanded Iraq and several other laggards bolster compliance with quotas before it agrees to further output reductions. But getting all parties in line with their assigned targets has long confounded the alliance.

Where Oil Goes Next

For now, oil markets are in limbo awaiting next Thursday’s OPEC+ gathering. Prices could see added volatility until the cartel unveils its plans.

Most analysts still expect that additional cuts will emerge, possibly in the 500,000 barrels per day range. That may be enough to place a temporary floor under the market and keep Brent crude from approaching $70 per barrel.

But if internal dissent paralyzes OPEC+ from reaching an agreement, or one that falls significantly short of projections, another downward spiral is probable. Pressure would only escalate on the alliance to take more drastic actions to stabilize prices in 2024 as economic storm clouds gather.

Israel-Hamas Conflict Could Catapult Oil Prices to Record High of $157 Per Barrel

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The ongoing fighting between Israel and Hamas risks causing substantial disruptions to the global oil market, threatening to send crude prices to unprecedented levels according to a new warning from the World Bank.

In a worst-case scenario where the conflict escalates and key oil producing nations impose embargos, oil prices could surge as high as $157 per barrel. That would far surpass the previous record of $147 set in 2008 and have dramatic ripple effects across industries.

The World Bank laid out various scenarios in its latest commodity outlook report. In a “large disruption” comparable to the 1973 Arab oil embargo, global supplies could drop by 6 to 8 million barrels per day. This massive shortage of oil on the international market would cause prices to jump by 56-75%, catapulting prices up to the $140 to $157 range.

The crisis in 1973 quadrupled oil prices after Arab producers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq imposed an export ban on nations supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur War. While neither Israel nor Hamas are major oil exporters themselves, provoking producers in the surrounding region poses a major risk.

Surging crude prices would directly impact consumers at the gas pump. Each $10 rise in the cost of a barrel of crude translates to about a 25 cent increase in gas prices according to analysts. That means if oil hit $150, gas could surge above $4 per gallon nationally, far exceeding the recent highs earlier this year. Areas like California would likely see prices cross $5 or even $6 per gallon.

High fuel costs not only hurt commuters but drive up expenses for the transportation industry. Airlines would be forced to raise ticket prices to cover the inflated expense of jet fuel. Trucking and freight companies would also pass on the costs through higher shipping rates, feeding inflation throughout the economy.

Plastics and chemical manufacturers dependent on petrochemical feedstocks would see margins squeezed as oil prices stay elevated. Other goods with significant transportation expenses embedded in their supply chains would also see prices increased.

The pain would not be limited to oil-reliant sectors. As consumers are forced to spend more on transportation and energy needs, discretionary income gets reduced. This results in lower spending at retailers, restaurants and entertainment venues. Tourism also declines as pricier gas dissuades vacations and trips.

In essence, persistently high oil prices threaten to stall the economy by depressing spending, raising inflation and input costs across many industries all at once. While the US is now a net exporter of crude and refined fuels, it remains exposed to global price movements shaped by international events.

The World Bank warned that an escalation of the Israel-Hamas tensions could create a dual supply shock when combined with reduced oil and gas exports from Russia. Global markets are still reeling from the loss of Russian energy supplies due to Western sanctions and bans.

Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, investment bank Goldman Sachs had predicted oil could reach $100 per barrel this year. The fighting has already caused prices to spike above $120 at points, showing how geopolitical instability in one region can roil prices worldwide.

The grim scenarios described by the World Bank underscore the interconnectedness binding energy markets across the globe. An event thousands of miles away increasing instability in the Middle East could end up costing American consumers, businesses, and the economy dearly.

While the baseline forecast calls for prices to moderate over the next year, an expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict could upend those predictions. Investors, businesses, and policymakers must watch the situation closely to prepare for the economic impacts of further turmoil.

All parties involved must also be cognizant of how violence that disrupts oil production and trade risks global fallout. Diplomatic solutions take on new urgency to prevent a worst-case scenario that would inflict widespread hardship as oil races past $150 per barrel into uncharted territory.

Biden Taps Historic Amounts of Emergency Reserve Oil to Fight Prices – But Will it Work?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a bold move to combat surging fuel prices and rampant inflation, President Biden is unleashing a flood of black gold onto the markets. The White House is planning to tap a massive 180 million barrels of crude oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) – the biggest withdrawal in the reserve’s history.

The news sent oil prices tumbling 5% in early trading as speculators reacted to the supply boost. But will the SPR floodgates really succeed in taming the oil price beast that has economists worried about recession?

The sheer size of the release, equivalent to two full days of global oil consumption, grabbed headlines. Set to be gradually emptied over several months, Biden’s SPR unleashing is meant to act like a shot of bear tranquilizer for the raging oil market.

Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reduced supply from the world’s No. 2 exporter combined with surging demand has driven prices to their highest levels since 2008. Brent crude already flirted with a mind-boggling $140 per barrel in March. Even after the SPR news-driven dip, benchmark oil remains stubbornly high at around $105.

For Biden, doling out the emergency crude is a midterm elections Hail Mary pass. Painfully high gas prices have contributed to the president’s dismal approval ratings. Tapping the SPR to lower fuel costs may be his best bet to avoid Democrats enduring a disastrous drubbing by the Republicans in November.

Beyond politics, uncorking America’s oil reserves also sends an important message to the market. It signals the Administration’s determination to fight an inflation rate that keeps printing four-decade highs. Few things impact inflation expectations like changes in oil prices. A meaningful drop could help tamp down the runaway price increases eroding consumer confidence.

But will the effort succeed or will it flounder like past attempts? With global crude inventories at historic lows, many analysts see the SPR release as a mere band-aid solution. It provides some short-term relief but doesn’t fix the supply and demand imbalance.

Goldman Sachs estimates the 180 million barrel slug will help rebalance markets this year. But it warned the move doesn’t resolve the structural deficit caused by excluding Russian exports.

Previous SPR releases also failed to produce lasting effects. Oil prices quickly rebounded after 60 million barrels were tapped in November 2021 and another 30 million in March 2022.

This time, the White House is also counting on allies for help. The International Energy Agency meets soon to potentially coordinate a collective release from its members’ reserves.

But Biden’s SPR gambit already seems at odds with other moves meant to restrict oil supply and fight climate change. Canceling the Keystone XL pipeline permit and banning new federal drilling auctions counterproductively worsened the supply crunch. A of couple million extra daily barrels from those sources would have eased pressure on prices.

The Administration now finds itself trying to fix with one hand problems partly created by the other. That internal tension undermines the large SPR release’s credibility.

Traders also scoffed when OPEC refused to boost production more than a token amount after the U.S. lobbied for extra output. With the cartel and allies like Russia benefitting handsomely from $100+ oil, they have little incentive to pump much more.

Meanwhile, risks of a demand-killing recession loom if the Fed’s inflation fight requires jumbo interest rate hikes. And Covid lockdowns in China already hurt oil demand in the world’s largest importer.

So while Biden’s SPR flow should offer some near-term relief at the pump, it may not move the needle much for long. Markets fear what happens if 180 million barrels merely postpones the supply day of reckoning rather than preventing it.

With inventories low, spare capacity shrinking, geopolitical unrest continuing, and ESG considerations constraining investment, oil looks poised to remain highly volatile. While the SPR release was historic in size, it likely won’t fully tranquilize the energy markets.

Take a moment to take a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Senior Research Analyst Michael Heim’s Energy Industry Report.

Should Investors Pay Attention to US Strategic Reserve Replenishment?

Posted on by cpatches
Image Credit: Paul B (Flickr)

Will Drivers Continue to be Dogged by High Gas Prices as US Strategic Oil Reserve is Replenished?

The last time the US Strategic Oil Reserves was this low was January 1985. The US population was then 238 million, The Cosby Show was the top-rated on TV, the threat of the AIDS virus was just beginning to be understood, and a newly appointed NIH Director named Anthony Fauci had just been promoted. In 37 years, some things have changed, and some things have not. One that has not is the need for reliable energy.

The Reserves reached its peak in April 2011 with 726.5 million barrels; today we sit with 453.1 million. Will it take 37 years to replenish the more than 200 million barrels, 160 million that have been siphoned off since March of this year?


The barrels that are being used in 2022, were ordered released by the White House to offset domestic loss of production, pipeline distribution, and less supply compounded by global shortages resulting from a partial embargo against Russia. The order is intended to work to lower gas prices today and help reduce the impact oil prices are having on unacceptably high inflation.

President Biden said in March that the US would release one million barrels of oil a day for six months as petroleum products spiked following the start of the Russian/Ukrainian war. The White House then said, in late July, the US would release another 20 million barrels.

To some degree, it worked as intended. There has been a fall in the price at the gas pumps over the past two months. Much of this has been supply related helped by the reserve releases, and to a lesser extend, demand has also slowed from receding economic activity. WTI crude, the US benchmark price, has dropped around 24%.


That decline has brought US gasoline prices down from above $5 a gallon in June to $3.89 on Tuesday, August 17. Globally, other countries are tapping into their own strategic reserves as well.

What Happens When we Refill It?

The US consumed about 20 million barrels of oil a day on average in 2021, according to the EIA. During the same year, it produced 11 million barrels a day. The Biden administration is proposing to refill the stockpiles under a plan that is likely to see it order 60 million barrels this fall for delivery at an unspecified time in the future. That leaves at least another 100 million barrels to bring the country back to where we were in March 2022 – over two hundred more to bring us back to the peak. It took 37 years last time for the country to stockplile the same amount.

The current infrastructure is not supporting additional oil output, or companies would be pumping now. On July 1, President Biden made public a five-year proposal for offshore oil and gas development in areas of existing production and said the final plan might have anywhere from zero to 11 lease sales.

The range of proposed options were, between two auctions a year and none at all. The plan seemed conflicted with a desire to balance the administration’s efforts to reduce the use of fossil fuels and its calls to increase needed oil and gas.

Energy Demand Moving Forward

Does restocking the Reserves point toward high petroleum demand for a much longer time period than ever expected? Does it also create opportunities for producers of biofuels, for example GEVO?

The current fuel issues are not going to disappear overnight. Borrowing from the future with an intent, and now a plan to pay it back, will require more production than before. Companies that produce are not inclined to make big investments in building out a platform when the political climate is one of wanting to shut production down as soon as possible.

The cost of reducing energy output and then borrowing from reserves, especially when an unexpected embargo is placed on a major supplier, could keep the price of all energy elevated for a much longer time than, the end of a war, of installation of coastal wind farms.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek 

Sources

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCSSTUS1&f=M

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_geographies.php#pricesbyregion

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/07/26/fact-sheet-department-of-energy-releases-new-notice-of-sale-as-gasoline-prices-continue-to-fall/

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director

https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-additional-notice-sale-crude-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/biden-administration-proposes-offshore-drilling-plan-focused-mainly-us-gulf-2022-07-01/