Lifeway Foods (LWAY) – Another Record Quarter


Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Continued Growth. The first quarter marked another quarter of net sales growth for Lifeway, the 18th consecutive quarter to do so. The quarter was also the 4th in a row of recording record net sales. The record quarter is coupled with an improved gross margin from the prior year, flowing through to an improved net income. We believe the continued growth is a testament to management’s strategy in marketing its products and investments made towards production efficiency.

Another Record. Net sales were $44.6 million, a new record for Lifeway, from $38.9 million in the previous year and above our estimate of $43 million. Gross margin was 25.8% from 21.7% last year. Net income totaled $2.4 million, or $0.16 per diluted share, compared to $0.8 million, or $0.06, in the prior year. We estimated net income of $3.6 million, or $0.24 per diluted share.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

FAT Brands (FAT) – First Step To A Twin Peaks IPO


Wednesday, May 15, 2024

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Filing. FAT Brands announced the operating unit for Twin Peaks (TP) and Smokey Bones (SB) confidentially submitted a registration statement to the SEC to become a standalone public reporting company. While timing and completion of an IPO of the units is subject to numerous conditions, this is a first step.

Confidential? The SEC permits issuers to submit draft registration statements relating to IPOs for review by the SEC staff on a confidential basis. The confidential submission process is intended to give issuers more flexibility to plan their offerings and reduce the potential for lengthy exposure to market fluctuations that can adversely affect an offering. It is our understanding that a confidential filing allows the issuer to defer the public disclosure of sensitive commercial and financial information.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

FAT Brands (FAT) – Facing Civil and Criminal Charges


Monday, May 13, 2024

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Criminal Charges. On Friday, it was announced the U.S. Attorney’s Office, Central District of California indicted former CEO Andrew Wiederhorn, former CFO Rebecca Hershinger, and the Company’s former accountant. The indictment is for the scheme to conceal $47 million in distributions Mr. Wiederhorn received in the form of shareholder loans from the IRS, FAT’s minority shareholders, and the broader investing public.

Civil Charges. Simultaneously, the SEC filed a civil complaint accusing Mr. Wiederhorn of using FAT cash to fund his lifestyle, while falsely telling the Company’s auditors, Board of Directors, and investors that neither he nor his family members had any direct or indirect material interest in the FAT cash used by Mr. Wiederhorn for personal expenditures.


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The ODP Corporation (ODP) – Post Call Commentary and Updated Model


Friday, May 10, 2024

Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies a range of office products and services. It offers merchandise, such as general office supplies, computer supplies, business machines and related supplies, and office furniture through its chain of office supply stores under the Office Depot, Foray, Ativa, Break Escapes, Worklife, and Christopher Lowell brand names. The company also provides graphic design, printing, reproduction, mailing, shipping, and other services through design, print, and ship centers. It has operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Central America. The company also sells its products and services through direct mail catalogs, contract sales force, Internet sites, and retail stores, through a mix of company-owned operations, joint ventures, licensing and franchise agreements, alliances, and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2008, Office Depot operated 1,267 North American retail division office supply stores and 162 international division retail stores, as well as participated under licensing and merchandise arrangements in 98 stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Varis. The big news for the quarter was the decision to put the Varis unit up for sale. While we believe the long-term business opportunity for Varis is attractive, the business was just taking too long to ramp up for the amount of investment ODP was pumping into the unit. We will see what type of return the sale brings, but in any case, the reduction of costs will be favorable.

Project Core. This cost optimization program is delivering significant benefits to ODP’s overall operating results and with the program upsized to $100 million from $50 million, Project Core should provide solid opportunity to reduce cost, in our view. It will be a key driver for improved bottom line results.


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The ODP Corporation (ODP) – 1Q24 First Look


Thursday, May 09, 2024

Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies a range of office products and services. It offers merchandise, such as general office supplies, computer supplies, business machines and related supplies, and office furniture through its chain of office supply stores under the Office Depot, Foray, Ativa, Break Escapes, Worklife, and Christopher Lowell brand names. The company also provides graphic design, printing, reproduction, mailing, shipping, and other services through design, print, and ship centers. It has operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Central America. The company also sells its products and services through direct mail catalogs, contract sales force, Internet sites, and retail stores, through a mix of company-owned operations, joint ventures, licensing and franchise agreements, alliances, and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2008, Office Depot operated 1,267 North American retail division office supply stores and 162 international division retail stores, as well as participated under licensing and merchandise arrangements in 98 stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q24 Results. Net sales were $1.87 billion, down from $2.11 billion in 1Q23 and slightly below our $1.95 billion estimate. A challenging overall economic environment and 56 fewer Office Depot stores, y-o-y, drove the revenue contraction. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $82 million, down from $131 million and below our $123 million estimate. Net income declined to $15 million, or $0.40/sh, from $72 million, or $1.71/sh. We had forecasted $64 million, or $1.72/sh.

A Decision on Varis. Put out the “For Sale” sign. Responding to shareholder suggestions, among other things, management and the Board came to the decision to sell the Varis unit, which just has not begun to generate revenue as originally anticipated. While waiting for the sale to occur, the operating costs of Varis have been reduced by approximately one-third.


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Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) – Overcoming a Weak 1Q24


Thursday, May 09, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Electrical Systems. ES was star performer in the quarter, as increased pricing in the segment geared the segment towards positive growth. However, with two of its core end markets seeing a flat to declining demand in 2024, we expect some muted performance of the segment for the year. Management continues to focus on business wins for the segment and new facilities to supports its growth. The ES remains on a path to become the Company’s largest.

Optimization. Management continues to focus on finding ways to optimize the business and to improve profitability. The Company has rightsized some of its labor due to rising labor costs in Mexico and management has discussed offsetting cost pressure with customers. Alongside these, management has a focus on its supply chain and is looking to optimize its freight and logistics costs. The Company still has levers to pull to achieve higher optimization and cost reduction, in our view.


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Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) – A Tough Start to 2024


Tuesday, May 07, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Tough Start. While the year-over-year comparison was expected to be difficult given the record top-line performance in 1Q23 and the expected decline in Class 8 truck production, first quarter 2024 results missed our and consensus estimates. However, 1Q24 results did improve sequentially. The one bright spot remains the Electrical Systems business, which posted top-line improvement y-o-y, although operating segment operating income declined, partly due to restructuring costs.

1Q24. Revenue declined 11.6% y-o-y to $232.1 million, below our $244 million estimate and the consensus $241 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $12.7 million, down 35.9% y-o-y. We had forecast $15.5 million, and consensus was at $16.1 million. CVG reported adjusted net income of $4.4 million, or EPS of $0.13, versus adjusted net income of $9.2 million, or $0.28/sh in 1Q23. We were at $6.7 million and $0.20/sh, with consensus also at $0.20/sh.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

ACCO Brands (ACCO) – Overcoming Top-Line Weakness, But Tempering Expectations for 2024


Monday, May 06, 2024

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Segments. Americas revenue decreased 14.3% to $197.2 million, with comp sales down 15.3%. Segment adjusted operating income declined to $12.3 million from $18.7 million. International revenues fell 6.3% to $172.6 million, with comp sales off 5.9%. Adjusted operating income was $16.9 million versus $17.5 million in 1Q23.

Factors. Both segments experienced softness in consumer and business demand for office and computer categories. Americas also felt the impact from the exit of lower margin business while International benefitted from price increases. Although computer sales are still soft, the rate of decline is moderating.


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ACCO Brands (ACCO) – Top Line Headwinds Impact 1Q24 Results


Friday, May 03, 2024

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overview. ACCO continues to see persistent consumer and business spending weakness, impacting top line revenue. However, the previously announced $60 million cost reduction program enabled the Company to grow gross margin by 120 basis points y-o-y. Management is exploring additional initiatives given the weaker than expected operating environment.

Results. Revenue declined 10.9% y-o-y to $358.9 million. Management had expected a 6.5%-8% decline. Comp sales fell 11.3%, while favorable forex added 0.4%. Adjusted operating income was $16.2 million versus $24.3 million in 1Q23. GAAP net loss was $6.3 million, or $0.07/sh, compared to a net loss of $3.7 million, or $0.04/sh, last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.03 in 1Q24, compared to $0.09/sh last year. We had forecast revenue of $370 million, a GAAP loss of $8.8 million, or a loss of $0.09/sh, and adjusted EPS of $0.01.


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1·800·Flowers.com, Inc. (FLWS) – Further Margin Improvement Appears Possible


Friday, May 03, 2024

For more than 45 years, 1-800-Flowers.com has offered truly original floral arrangements, plants and unique gifts to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries, everyday occasions, and seasonal holidays, and to deliver comfort during times of grief. Backed by a caring team obsessed with service, 1-800-Flowers.com provides customers thoughtful ways to express themselves and connect with the most important people in their lives. 1-800-Flowers.com is part of the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. family of brands. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q3 results. For Q3, the company reported revenue of $379.4 million, in-line with our estimate of $379.4 million. While revenues were down nearly $40 million year over year, the seasonal adj. EBITDA loss of $5.7 million was modestly better year over year. Notably, Q3 gross profit margins increased 300 basis points. The improved gross profit margin was driven by lower freight and commodity costs.

Improving revenue trends. While revenue trends are not recovering as fast as we originally hoped, there is substantial sequential quarterlyimprovement in ecommerce revenue, which was down 12% in Q1, down 6.6% in Q2 and a more moderate decrease of 4.9% in Q3. We expect that revenues will further moderate in fiscal Q4.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Release – FAT Brands Foundation Raises Over $130,000 at 2024 FAT Brands Summit

Research News and Market Data on FAT

FAT Brands’ Charitable Organization Fuels Impact at 2024 Conference

LOS ANGELES, May 02, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands Inc., a leading global franchising company that owns restaurant brands including Johnny Rockets, Fatburger, Round Table Pizza, Twin Peaks, Fazoli’s and 13 other concepts, is pleased to announce the FAT Brands Foundation has raised over $130,000 via donations and committed funds at FAT Brands’ bi-annual Summit in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Foundation team surpassed its $75,000 fundraising goal, which was then matched with an additional $50,000 donation by FAT Brands Inc., bringing the grand total to over $130,000.

Along with on-site fundraising, including a silent auction and raffle, the FAT Brands Foundation hosted its first-ever giving back event at the 2024 FAT Brands Summit to bring to life its mission of partnering with local non-profit organizations. In partnership with Las Vegas non-profit, Three Square, Southern Nevada’s only food bank and the area’s largest hunger-relief organization, FAT Brands Summit attendees helped pack nearly 6,000 meals for families. To further their commitment to the cause, the Foundation also presented a $10,000 check to Three Square to fund an additional 30,000 meals for the greater Las Vegas community.

“The Foundation has made remarkable strides since we announced its inception at the last FAT Brands Summit in 2022,” said Jessica Wiederhorn, President of FAT Brands Foundation. “To date, we have aided the work of over 50 causes in FAT Brands’ communities across the country. The pinnacle of this year’s Summit was celebrating with our key supporters, who have provided valuable donations, silent auction items and their time. We couldn’t be more grateful.”

For non-profits interested in applying for a grant or for those interested in donating to the Foundation, please visit www.fatbrands.com/foundation.

For more information on FAT Brands, visit www.fatbrands.com.

About FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 18 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Smokey Bones, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide.

About FAT Brands Foundation

Founded in 2022, the FAT Brands Foundation was created to uplift and unite the communities in which FAT Brands operates. While the company’s 18-brand portfolio is deeply rooted in charitable initiatives both locally and nationally, FAT Brands, as an organization, is seeking to magnify those efforts further. The 501(c)(3) organization is aimed at partnering with local non-profit organizations to provide essential programs to help families and communities thrive.

MEDIA CONTACT:
Erin Mandzik, FAT Brands
emandzik@fatbrands.com
860-212-6509

Release – FAT Brands Expands Partnership with Six Flags, Brings Third Restaurant Brand to Iconic Parks

Research News and Market Data on FAT

LOS ANGELES, May 02, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands Inc., parent company of Hurricane Grill & Wings and 17 other restaurant concepts, announces their latest brand to enter the legendary Six Flags properties. Hurricane Grill & Wings, the Florida-born wing brand known for its laid-back environment and award-winning wings, will debut at Six Flags Great Escape Lodge in Queensbury, New York this summer.

The latest opening underscores FAT Brands and Six Flags’ dynamic partnership and the global franchising company’s commitment to growth in non-traditional venues. The new Hurricane Grill & Wings will expand the wing brand’s presence in New York state, marking its first location in the upstate region. Hurricane Grill & Wings is FAT Brands’ third brand to appear in Six Flags properties, joining sister brands Fatburger and Johnny Rockets.

“Since we began our relationship with Six Flags following our acquisition of Johnny Rockets in 2020, they have been a tremendous partner of ours,” said FAT Brands Chief Development Officer, Taylor Wiederhorn. “Our brands have a one-of-a-kind, fun environment, so it is only natural to grow FAT Brands’ footprint in theme parks with a likeminded industry leader like Six Flags. We look forward to continued expansion in the years to come.”

“The addition of the first Hurricane Grill & Wings at a Six Flags property is an exciting expansion of our commitment to making good food fun,” said Six Flags Chief Marketing Officer, Edithann Ramey. “Just like our theme and water parks, Hurricane Grill & Wings provides a fun and casual environment where family and friends can gather and make memories.”

For more information or to find a Hurricane Grill & Wings near you, visit hurricanewings.com.

###

About FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands

Fragranzi(NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets and develops fast casual, casual and polished casual dining restaurant concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 18 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza®, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Smokey Bones, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Native Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit http://www.fatbrands.com.

About Hurricane Grill & Wings

With almost 50 restaurants located across the United States, Hurricane Grill & Wings® is known for its jumbo, fresh wings, more than 35 signature sauces, and rubs, and tropical, laid-back vibe. Hurricane Grill & Wings’ menu includes wings, tacos, burgers, and seafood. The original Hurricane Grill & Wings opened in Fort Pierce, Fla., in 1995 and has expanded to locations throughout the United States. For more information visit www.hurricanewings.com.

About Six Flags Entertainment Corporation

Six Flags Entertainment Corporation is the world’s largest regional theme park company with 27 parks across the United States, Mexico and Canada. For 63 years, Six Flags has entertained hundreds of millions of guests with world-class coasters, themed rides, thrilling water parks and unique attractions. Six Flags is committed to creating an inclusive environment that fully embraces the diversity of our team members and guests. For more information, visit www.sixflags.com.

MEDIA CONTACT:
Erin Mandzik, FAT Brands
emandzik@fatbrands.com
860-212-6509

FAT Brands (FAT) – Mixed 1Q Results but Growth Trends Remain Positive


Thursday, May 02, 2024

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q24 Results. FAT Brands reported 1Q24 revenue of $152 million, up 43.8% y-o-y, driven by the Smokey Bones acquisition. FAT reported adjusted EBITDA of $18.2 million in the quarter, compared to $19.2 million in 1Q23. Net loss for the quarter was $40.2 million, or $2.37/sh, compared to a net loss of $23.6 million, or $2.05/sh last year. Adjusted net loss for the quarter was $32.9 million, or $2.05/sh, compared to a net loss of $23.5 million, or a loss of $1.53/sh, last year. We had projected revenue of $163 million and a net loss of $23.2 million, or a loss of $1.39/sh.

Economy/Weather Impacted 1Q24 Results. While System-wide sales growth was 4.8% y-o-y, same store sales declined 4% y-o-y, as consumers traded down and weather conditions impacted traffic. Weather conditions also impacted new store openings, which came in at 16 for 1Q24, although management expects to increase to over 40 new openings in 2Q and for 125-150 new openings for all of 2024. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.