Tag: Consumer Spending

Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure Shows Progress as Consumer Spending Dips

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Core PCE inflation eased to 2.6% annually in January, aligning with economist expectations
– Personal income surged 0.9%, more than double the forecasted 0.4% increase
– Consumer spending unexpectedly declined 0.2% despite higher incomes, as savings rate jumped to 4.6%

Inflation continued its gradual retreat in January according to the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge, though concerns about President Trump’s tariff plans are casting a shadow over future price stability, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% for the month and 2.5% annually, while the core measure—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—maintained the same monthly increase but showed a 2.6% year-over-year rate. The annual core figure represents a meaningful step down from December’s upwardly revised 2.9%.

These figures aligned precisely with economist expectations and suggest the Fed’s aggressive interest rate campaign continues to yield results, albeit at a slower pace than policymakers might prefer. The central bank targets 2% inflation as its long-term goal.

“The inflation report was good, but we’re not done,” said Jose Rasco, chief investment officer for the Americas at HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth Management. “So that prudent patient Powell, as I call him, is going to remain in play, and I think he’s going to wait.”

Perhaps more surprising were the income and spending components of the report. Personal income surged 0.9% in January—more than double the 0.4% forecast—but this windfall didn’t translate to higher consumer spending. Instead, Americans reduced their expenditures by 0.2%, contradicting expectations for a slight 0.1% increase. The personal savings rate jumped to 4.6%, suggesting consumers may be growing more cautious about economic conditions.

Within the report’s details, goods prices increased 0.5%, driven by a 0.9% rise in motor vehicles and parts, along with a 2% jump in gasoline prices. Services inflation showed more restraint at 0.2%, while housing costs rose 0.3%.

The data arrives as Federal Reserve officials continue deliberating their next steps for monetary policy. In recent weeks, policymakers have expressed cautious optimism about the inflation trajectory but remain adamant about seeing more evidence that price pressures are sustainably returning to their 2% target before implementing further interest rate reductions.

Following the report’s release, financial markets modestly increased the probability of a June interest rate cut, with futures traders now seeing just over 70% likelihood of a quarter-point reduction, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Markets currently anticipate two rate cuts by year-end, though odds for a third reduction have been rising in recent days.

While consumers are more familiar with the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—which showed 3% headline inflation and 3.3% core inflation in January—the Federal Reserve prefers the PCE measure because it captures a broader range of consumer spending, accounts for substitution effects when prices change, and places significantly less emphasis on housing costs.

The subdued spending figures present a curious economic paradox: despite strong income growth, consumers appear increasingly cautious. This restraint could help cool inflation further but might also signal weakening consumer confidence—the primary engine of American economic growth.

Financial markets responded positively to the report, with stock futures pointing higher and Treasury yields mostly declining, suggesting investors view the data as supporting the case for eventual monetary easing while not indicating immediate economic trouble.

U.S. Economy Shows Resilience with 2.3% Growth Despite Year-End Slowdown

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Consumer spending surged 4.2%, driving overall economic growth
– Full-year GDP growth of 2.8% in 2024 exceeded sustainable growth expectations
– Business investment declined for the first time in two years, signaling potential concerns

The U.S. economy demonstrated remarkable resilience in the final quarter of 2024, growing at a 2.3% annual rate despite expectations of a more significant slowdown. While this represents a deceleration from the third quarter’s 3.1% growth, the underlying data reveals a robust economic foundation driven primarily by extraordinary consumer spending.

American consumers, who represent approximately 70% of economic activity, flexed their financial muscle during the holiday season, with spending surging at a 4.2% rate – the highest increase in nearly two years and double the typical pace. This robust consumer behavior served as the primary engine of economic growth, offsetting challenges in other sectors.

The full-year GDP growth for 2024 registered an impressive 2.8%, surpassing economists’ expectations for sustainable growth rates. This performance caps off a remarkable three-year streak of strong economic expansion, following 2.9% growth in 2023 and 2.5% in 2022, highlighting the economy’s post-pandemic resilience.

However, the report wasn’t without its concerns. Business investment experienced its first decline in two years, pointing to ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector. The growth in inventories also slowed significantly, subtracting nearly a full percentage point from the headline GDP figure. Additionally, inflation ticked up to 2.3% in the fourth quarter from 1.5% in the third quarter, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions.

As the economy transitions under the Trump administration, businesses are weighing potential opportunities against risks. While proposed tax cuts and deregulation could accelerate growth, concerns about potential tariffs and trade retaliation loom over the business community. The Federal Reserve has adopted a cautious stance, putting interest rate cuts on hold as it assesses both inflation trends and the impact of new economic policies.

Government spending contributed positively to growth, rising at a 2.5% rate and adding 0.4 percentage points to GDP. Despite a surprising surge in December’s trade deficit, international trade had minimal impact on the overall GDP figures.

Market analysts are particularly focused on the sustainability of consumer spending patterns as we move into 2025. The robust holiday shopping season, while impressive, has raised questions about whether households can maintain this pace of expenditure, especially given the uptick in inflation and continued high interest rates. Some economists suggest that the strong spending could be partially attributed to consumers drawing down savings accumulated during the pandemic era, a trend that may not be sustainable in the long term.

The labor market’s continued strength remains a crucial factor in maintaining economic momentum. With unemployment rates staying near historic lows and wage growth remaining solid, the foundation for continued consumer spending appears stable. However, the manufacturing sector’s struggles and reduced business investment could eventually impact job creation in these sectors, presenting a potential headwind to the broader economy’s growth trajectory.

Looking ahead, economists project continued growth at or above 2% for 2025, though the exact trajectory will largely depend on policy decisions from the new administration and the Federal Reserve’s response to evolving economic conditions.

Consumer Spending Surge: Fed’s Rate Cut Hopes Face Economic Resilience

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– U.S. consumer spending increased 0.5% in July, showing economic strength
– Inflation remains moderate, with PCE price index rising 2.5% year-on-year
– Robust spending challenges expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts

In a surprising turn of events, U.S. consumer spending showed remarkable strength in July, potentially altering the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. This robust economic indicator may put a damper on expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts, particularly the anticipated half-percentage-point reduction in September.

Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose by 0.5% in July, following a 0.3% increase in June. This uptick, aligning with economists’ forecasts, suggests the economy is on firmer ground than previously thought. After adjusting for inflation, real consumer spending gained 0.4%, maintaining momentum from the second quarter. Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital, notes, “There is nothing here to push the Fed to a half-point cut. This is not the kind of spending growth associated with recession.”

While spending surged, inflation remained relatively contained. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% for the month and 2.5% year-on-year. Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually. These figures, while showing progress towards the Fed’s 2% target, indicate that inflationary pressures persist, potentially complicating the central bank’s decision-making process.

Despite a jump in the unemployment rate to a near three-year high of 4.3% in July, which initially stoked recession fears, the labor market continues to generate decent wage growth. Personal income rose 0.3% in July, with wages climbing at the same rate. This suggests that the slowdown in the labor market is primarily due to reduced hiring rather than increased layoffs.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently signaled that a rate cut was imminent, acknowledging concerns over the labor market. However, the strong consumer spending data may force the Fed to reconsider the pace and magnitude of potential rate cuts. David Alcaly, lead macroeconomic strategist at Lazard Asset Management, offers a longer-term perspective: “There’s a lot of focus right now on the pace of rate cuts in the short term, but we believe it ultimately will matter more how deep the rate-cutting cycle goes over time.”

The Atlanta Fed has raised its third-quarter GDP growth estimate to a 2.5% annualized rate, up from 2.0%. This revision, coupled with the strong consumer spending data, paints a picture of an economy that’s more resilient than many had anticipated. The increase in spending was broad-based, covering both goods and services. Consumers spent more on motor vehicles, housing and utilities, food and beverages, recreation services, and financial services. They also boosted spending on healthcare, visited restaurants and bars, and stayed at hotels.

As the Fed navigates this complex economic landscape, investors and policymakers alike will be closely watching for signs of whether the central bank will prioritize fighting inflation or supporting economic growth in its upcoming decisions. The robust consumer spending data suggests that the economy may not need as much support as previously thought, potentially leading to a more cautious approach to rate cuts.

For investors, this economic resilience presents both opportunities and challenges. While strong consumer spending bodes well for many sectors, it may also lead to a less accommodative monetary policy than some had hoped for. As always, a diversified approach and close attention to economic indicators will be crucial for navigating these uncertain waters.

Strong Business Spending and Government Demand Drive Upward Q3 GDP Revision

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

US economic output grew at a faster pace than initially estimated in the third quarter, according to revised GDP data released Wednesday by the Commerce Department. The upgraded third quarter growth paints a picture of resilient business and government spending offsetting slowing consumer demand.

GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 5.2% during the July to September period, topping the advance reading of 4.9% growth. Upward revisions were fueled primarily by fixed business investment and government expenditures proving stronger than expected.

Corporate Investments Defy Recession Fears
As rising rates threaten housing and construction, many economists feared companies would pull back on equipment investments amid an uncertain outlook. However, nonresidential fixed investment, encompassing structures, equipment, intellectual property and more, rose 1.3% in Q3.

While this marked a steep decline from 6.1% growth in Q2, business spending has moderated far less than feared. Companies seem focused on funding promising productivity enhancements even as they trim costs elsewhere. Tech and machinery upgrades that drive efficiency and cut costs over the long term remain attractive.

Surprisingly resilient corporate investment provided vital ballast for growth last quarter. Coupled with still-healthy consumer spending, albeit revised down slightly, business capital outlays appear sufficient to keep the US out of recession territory for now.

Government Spending Spikes
In addition to business investment, government expenditures at the federal, state and local levels increased 5.8% in Q3, meaningfully higher than early readings. Surging defense spending as well as state investments in education drove elevated government consumption.

With Democrats in control of Congress and the White House, pandemic-era support programs also continued stimulating significant public sector demand.

Consumer Engine Slows but Remains Solid
Although personal consumption spending fell short of initial 4% growth estimates and instead rose a still-strong 3.6%, households continue underpinning US growth. A super-tight jobs market, rising wages and abundant savings for higher-income Americans seem sufficient to maintain solid consumer demand.

However, with borrowing costs jumping and inflation eating away at incomes, an evident slowdown in spending ahead of the crucial holiday season presents economic risks. Any further erosion of consumption could spur layoffs and trigger recessionary conditions. For now at least, consumers appear positioned to continue carrying the torch.

Strong Growth But Uncertainty Lingers
Thanks to business and government resilience, Q3 expansion topped already lofty expectations. This provides a sturdy launching pad heading into year-end. But with the Fed aggressively tightening policy and key trading partners teetering on the brink of recession, clouds linger on the horizon. Another quarter of solid growth could be the high water mark before a challenging 2024.

From Inflation to Deflation: A Seasonal Shift in Consumer Prices

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Consumers tapped out from inflation may finally get a reprieve this holiday season in the form of falling prices. According to Walmart CEO Doug McMillon, deflation could be on the horizon.

On a Thursday earnings call, McMillon said the retail giant expects to see deflationary trends emerge in the coming weeks and months. He pointed to general merchandise and key grocery items like eggs, chicken, and seafood that have already seen notable price decreases.

McMillon added that even stubbornly high prices for pantry staples are expected to start dropping soon. “In the U.S., we may be managing through a period of deflation in the months to come,” he said, welcoming the change as a benefit to financially strapped customers.

His comments echo optimism from other major retailers that inflation may have peaked. Earlier this week, Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail remarked that “the worst of the inflationary environment is behind us.”

Government data also hints the pricing pressures are easing. The consumer price index (CPI) for October was flat compared to September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, dipped to a two-year low.

This emerging deflationary environment is a reprieve after over a year of runaway inflation that drove the cost of living to 40-year highs. Everything from groceries to household utilities saw dramatic price hikes that squeezed family budgets.

But the October CPI readings suggest the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes are having the desired effect of reining in excessive inflation. As supply chains normalize and consumer demand cools, prices are softening across many categories.

For instance, the American Farm Bureau Federation calculates that the average cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 will be $64.05 this year – down 4.5% from 2022’s record high of $67.01. The drop is attributed largely to a decrease in turkey prices.

Still, consumers aren’t out of the woods yet when it comes to stubborn inflation on essentials. While prices are down from their peak, they remain elevated compared to historical norms.

Grocery prices at Walmart are up mid-single digits versus 2022, though up high-teens compared to 2019. Many other household basics like rent, medical care, and vehicle insurance continue to rise at above average rates.

And American shopping habits reflect the impact of lingering inflation. Walmart CFO John David Rainey noted consumers have waited for discounts before purchasing goods such as Black Friday deals.

McMillon indicated shoppers are still monitoring spending carefully. So while deflationary pressure is a tailwind, Walmart doesn’t expect an abrupt return to pre-pandemic spending patterns.

The retailer hopes to see food prices in particular come down faster, as grocery inflation eats up a significant chunk of household budgets. But experts warn it could take the rest of 2023 before inflation fully normalizes.

Consumers have been resilient yet cautious under economic uncertainty. If deflation takes root across the retail landscape, it could provide much-needed relief to wallets and mark a turning point toward recovery. For now, the environment looks favorable for a little more jingle in shoppers’ pockets this holiday season.