Friday, September 29, 2023
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Near-term weakness presents an opportunity. Lithium stocks have been weighed down by a decline in lithium spot prices this year driven mainly by factors in China. The recent price of battery grade lithium carbonate was ~US$23,300 per tonne. We think it presents an opportunity for longer-term investors based on favorable intermediate and long-term lithium fundamentals supported by growth in the North American electric vehicle market. While commodity spot prices tend to be volatile, long-term supply contracts will likely account for market volume growth as electric vehicle industry participants seek to secure their own lithium sources.
North American lithium projects have gained traction. With critical minerals supplies subject to geopolitical risk, lithium projects in North America benefit from a variety of funding options as battery manufacturers and car makers seek to secure supplies to de-risk their own long-term objectives. General Motors’ investment and offtake agreement with Lithium Americas to advance the Thacker Pass lithium project in Nevada validates the commercial potential of similar projects. Another example is the U.S. Dept. of Energy’s commitment to lend up to US$700 million to develop Ioneer’s Rhyolite Ridge project in Nevada coupled with US$490 million of conditional financing from Sibanye-Stillwater and binding offtake agreements with Ford, Toyota/Panasonic, and EcoPro.
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