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The US and Israeli strikes on Iran have rattled global markets, triggering sharp swings in oil, gold, and equities. Brent crude surged, gold climbed, and the S&P 500 whipsawed as investors grappled with the possibility of a prolonged conflict.

Whenever geopolitical tensions erupt, the first market reaction is often dramatic. Energy prices spike on supply fears. Gold rallies as investors seek safety. Stocks wobble amid uncertainty.

But history suggests that the first move is rarely the lasting one.

A review of past geopolitical shocks — including Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, the Sept. 11 attacks, the 2003 Iraq War, US intervention in Libya, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — shows a consistent pattern. Markets tend to react sharply in the opening days, only to moderate or reverse course within weeks.

Consider the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran in June 2025. When hostilities began on June 13, oil and gold jumped immediately while stocks fell.

Brent crude rose roughly 7% in the first trading session following the outbreak of fighting. Yet 30 trading days later, oil prices were slightly below where they had started.

Gold followed a similar trajectory. An initial pop of about 1.5% gave way to a modest decline over the next month.

Equities moved in the opposite direction. The S&P 500 fell just over 1% on the first day of trading after the conflict began but was up nearly 6% a month later.

The lesson: initial fear-driven moves do not necessarily define the medium-term trend.

The same dynamic appeared after other major events. Gold surged nearly 7% in the first trading session after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, reflecting a rush into safe-haven assets. But over the subsequent 30 trading days, gains were far more moderate.

Oil’s reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was even more dramatic. Prices spiked more than 30% in the early days of the conflict amid fears of supply disruptions. Yet a month later, oil’s net gain had narrowed significantly.

Across multiple episodes, the direction of prices after the first day matched the direction one month later only slightly more than half the time. In other words, a sharp spike — or drop — offers limited predictive power.

There is, however, at least one important exception.

When Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, oil prices jumped more than 11% on the first day and continued climbing, rising nearly 57% over the following month. Stocks also continued their downward trajectory, with the S&P 500 falling more than 10% over 30 trading days.

Even in that case, however, markets eventually recovered after allied forces expelled Iraqi troops from Kuwait.

The current conflict may ultimately chart its own course. The scale of military action, potential energy supply disruptions, and broader geopolitical consequences all remain fluid. Analysts have cautioned that it is simply too early to project where prices will settle in the weeks ahead.

Still, history offers a measured perspective. Markets often overshoot in moments of crisis, pricing in worst-case scenarios before recalibrating as new information emerges.

For investors, that pattern underscores a familiar reality: volatility may dominate the headlines in the first days of a global shock, but longer-term outcomes are rarely determined by the opening move alone.

Thursday, February 26, 2026

For more than 45 years, 1-800-Flowers.com has offered truly original floral arrangements, plants and unique gifts to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries, everyday occasions, and seasonal holidays, and to deliver comfort during times of grief. Backed by a caring team obsessed with service, 1-800-Flowers.com provides customers thoughtful ways to express themselves and connect with the most important people in their lives. 1-800-Flowers.com is part of the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. family of brands. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updates it corporate presentation. Management recently updated its corporate presentation to provide more detail around the company’s four pillar initiative to transform it toward a more profitable, scalable, growth oriented company. The four key pillars: achieving cost savings and operational efficiency, strengthening customer focus, expanding reach beyond e-commerce, and enhancing talent alignment and accountability. 

Omnichannel Expansion. The company is expanding distribution channels beyond its owned e-commerce platforms. The Company is meeting customers where they already shop by leveraging leading third-party marketplaces to lower acquisition friction and expand reach. These marketplace channels are intended to complement owned platforms, while selective physical retail testing will occur under strict ROI thresholds. 

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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The US economy ended 2025 on a weaker-than-expected note.

New data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed GDP grew at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in the fourth quarter, well below economist expectations for 2.9% growth. The miss marks a notable slowdown from earlier in the year and caps full-year 2025 growth at 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024.

A key culprit: government spending.

Federal outlays fell sharply during the quarter, reflecting the impact of the 43-day government shutdown that spanned October and November. Overall government spending declined at a 5.1% annualized rate, subtracting 0.9 percentage points from headline GDP. Federal spending alone plunged 16.6%, shaving 1.15 percentage points off growth.

President Trump, posting on Truth Social ahead of the release, argued the shutdown cost the economy “at least two points in GDP” and renewed calls for lower interest rates.

Under the Surface: Not All Weakness

Despite the headline disappointment, underlying private-sector demand remained more resilient.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers — a key gauge of core demand — rose 2.4%, only slightly below the prior quarter’s 2.9% pace. Private fixed investment increased 2.6%, supported by continued spending on intellectual property and information processing equipment.

The AI build-out remains a meaningful contributor to growth. Spending on information processing equipment added 0.65 percentage points to GDP in the quarter, while investment in intellectual property products rose at a 7.4% pace.

However, consumer behavior showed signs of divergence. Services spending grew 3.4%, while goods spending fell 0.1%, underscoring a continued rotation away from physical goods.

What This Means for Small-Cap Stocks

For small- and micro-cap investors, the implications are layered.

First, government spending volatility tends to disproportionately impact smaller companies with federal exposure. Contractors, niche defense suppliers, and specialized service providers may have felt the brunt of delayed payments or paused contracts during the shutdown.

Second, slower headline GDP growth can pressure investor sentiment toward riskier asset classes — and small caps often sit at the front of that risk spectrum. The Russell 2000 historically reacts more sharply to growth scares than large-cap indices.

But there’s another side.

If economists are correct that shutdown-related drag reverses in the first quarter — with some forecasts calling for 3% growth in early 2026 — small caps could benefit from a rebound narrative. Lower rates, which the administration continues to push for, would also ease capital constraints for smaller companies that rely more heavily on credit markets.

And the ongoing AI investment cycle may continue to support smaller industrial, semiconductor-adjacent, and specialty tech names tied to infrastructure build-outs.

Bottom Line

The Q4 GDP miss highlights how policy disruptions can ripple through the broader economy. While headline growth slowed, core private demand and investment remain intact.

For small-cap investors, volatility may persist in the near term — but a rebound in government activity and continued capital investment could shift the narrative quickly in early 2026.

Tuesday, February 17, 2026

Kelly (Nasdaq: KELYA, KELYB) connects talented people to companies in need of their skills in areas including Science, Engineering, Education, Office, Contact Center, Light Industrial, and more. We’re always thinking about what’s next in the evolving world of work, and we help people ditch the script on old ways of thinking and embrace the value of all workstyles in the workplace. We directly employ nearly 350,000 people around the world and connect thousands more with work through our global network of talent suppliers and partners in our outsourcing and consulting practice. Revenue in 2021 was $4.9 billion. Visit kellyservices.com and let us help with what’s next for you.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overview. Kelly’s fourth quarter continued to be impacted by many of the same trends evident in previous quarters, most notably discrete impacts associated with reduced demand for U.S. federal government contractors and from three large commercial customers.  Employers continue to take a cautious approach to hiring amid a mixed labor market. However, the Company was able to capitalize on positive trends in each of the segments.

4Q25 Results. Revenue was $1.05 billion, down 11.9% y-o-y, but down only 3.9% excluding the discrete impacts associated with reduced demand for U.S. federal government contractors and from three large commercial customers. Gross margin declined 150 bps to 18.8%. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $12 million, or a 2.0% margin, compared to $43.5 million, or 3.7% margin, last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.16 versus $0.79 in 4Q24.

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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The US government posted a $95 billion budget deficit in January, marking a sharp improvement from the same month a year earlier as revenue gains — including a surge in customs duties — outpaced modest growth in federal spending.

According to data released by the Treasury Department, January’s deficit was $34 billion lower than in January 2025, a decline of 26%. After adjusting for routine calendar-related payment shifts, including benefit disbursements affected by weekends and holidays, the deficit would have been just $30 billion — a 63% drop from the comparable period last year.

Government receipts totaled $560 billion in January, an increase of $47 billion, or 9%, compared with a year earlier. Meanwhile, federal outlays reached $655 billion, up $13 billion, or 2%. Both receipts and spending set records for the month of January, reflecting the continued expansion of the federal government’s revenue base and spending obligations. Despite the record figures, the deficit itself was not a record for the month.

The narrowing gap reflects stronger revenue performance relative to spending growth, a dynamic that has also carried into the broader fiscal year. Through the first four months of fiscal 2026, which began October 1, the deficit totaled $697 billion — down $143 billion, or 17%, from the same period in fiscal 2025.

Year-to-date receipts have climbed to $1.785 trillion, up 12% from the prior year period, while outlays have increased more modestly, rising 2% to $2.482 trillion. Both figures represent records for the first four months of a fiscal year, though the cumulative deficit is not historically unprecedented.

A significant driver of the revenue increase has been a surge in customs duties tied to tariffs implemented under President Donald Trump. Net customs receipts totaled $27.7 billion in January, roughly in line with December levels and only slightly below the approximately $30 billion monthly pace recorded late last year. By comparison, customs duties in January 2025 — before the administration’s tariff measures were announced — stood at just $7.3 billion.

On a fiscal year-to-date basis, net customs duties have reached $117.7 billion, a dramatic rise from $28.2 billion during the same period last year. The sharp increase underscores the growing role tariffs are playing in federal revenue collection.

Another factor contributing to January’s improved deficit figure was a rare decline in Treasury interest payments. Interest outlays on the public debt fell by $12 billion to $72 billion for the month. Treasury officials attributed the drop to technical adjustments related to inflation-linked securities, with some payments affected by last year’s government shutdown and delayed consumer price index data.

However, despite the January dip, interest costs remain elevated overall. Through the first four months of fiscal 2026, interest payments on the national debt have totaled $426 billion — a record for that period and up 9% from a year earlier.

While January’s improved deficit provides a measure of fiscal relief, the broader picture remains complex. Revenues are rising at a healthy pace, aided in part by tariffs, but interest costs continue to consume a growing share of federal spending. Whether the current trend of revenue outpacing spending can be sustained will depend on economic growth, inflation trends, and future policy decisions in Washington.

The strategic allure of the U.S. Healthcare and Life Sciences (HCLS) market—as detailed in our previous installments—is undeniable. However, for a European acquirer, the transition from “Strategic Intent” to “Value Realization” requires successfully navigating a regulatory landscape that is currently undergoing its most significant shift in decades. In 2026, the complexity of this “maze” has intensified, driven by a post-shutdown FDA backlog, a new era of “relative” data privacy standards, and aggressive national security oversight.

To preserve deal value, European buyers must move beyond traditional check-the-box compliance and adopt a multidisciplinary approach to regulatory due diligence.

The “Regulatory Velocity” Hurdle: Navigating the Post-Shutdown FDA

The 43-day U.S. federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025, created a significant “bow wave” of administrative delays that continues to impact 2026 product launch timelines. While the FDA has resumed full operations, the “review clock” for many pending 510(k) and PMA submissions was effectively frozen for over a month, as the agency lacked the legal authority to accept new user-fee-bearing applications during the lapse.

For an investment  banker or operational expert, this isn’t just a compliance issue—it’s a valuation variable. European buyers must now conduct “Regulatory Velocity Diligence.” It is no longer enough to confirm that a target has a clean filing; you must assess where that filing sits in the current backlog. It is critical to differentiate between submissions funded by “Carryover User Fees”—which may have continued to move—and those reliant on “New Appropriations” that stalled. A delayed 510(k) or PMA approval can shift a valuation model by six to twelve months, fundamentally altering the deal’s ROI.

Data Governance: The New “Relative” Standard (GDPR vs. HIPAA)

Transatlantic data transfers have long been the “third rail” of HCLS M&A. However, a landmark September 4, 2025, ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) in EDPS v. SRB has introduced a strategic “middle path” for European acquirers.

The court confirmed the concept of “Relative Personal Data.” In practice, this means that sufficiently pseudonymized data may be considered “personal data” for the U.S. seller (who holds the key) but not for the European recipient, provided the recipient cannot reasonably re-identify the individuals.

This is a massive win for M&A efficiency. European firms can now conduct more granular R&D and clinical trial diligence on U.S. assets without immediately triggering full GDPR liability, provided that strict technical and contractual “anti-identification” measures are in place. This “Privacy by Design” approach allows for faster integration of R&D pipelines while remaining compliant with both the EU’s strict privacy mandates and the U.S. HIPAA framework.

Beyond HIPAA: The State-Level Patchwork

While HIPAA provides a federal floor for data protection, European buyers often underestimate the complexity of state-level privacy laws. States like Texas have increasingly utilized their own statutory frameworks—such as the Texas Data Privacy and Security Act—to enforce standards that can overlap or even conflict with federal guidance.

For an Attorney, the risk lies in the “most restrictive” standard. If a target operates in multiple states, the integration team must ensure that data governance policies satisfy the most aggressive state regulator, not just the federal baseline. In the current 2026 climate, state-level enforcement is a primary driver of post-close litigation risk.

Safeguarding the Pipeline: The “Small Biotech” Exception

The 2026 Medicare drug price negotiations represent a seismic shift in U.S. reimbursement. However, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) includes a critical “Safe Harbor” for mid-market innovators: the Small Biotech Exception.

For European firms acquiring U.S. targets, verifying this status is paramount. If a drug’s Medicare Part D expenditure is less than or equal to 1% of total Part D expenditures, and the drug accounts for at least 80% of the manufacturer’s total sales, it may be exempt from negotiations until 2029. This provides a vital “valuation shield” for R&D pipelines, ensuring that the expected “Maximum Fair Price” (MFP) does not erode the deal’s long-term ROI.

The New CFIUS: National Security in Healthcare

The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has significantly expanded its footprint throughout 2025 and 2026. While European allies often benefit from “excepted investor” status, HCLS deals involving large-scale U.S. patient data, biotech IP, or critical medical supply chain manufacturing are increasingly being flagged for national security reviews.

The strategy for 2026 is “Pre-emptive Transparency.” Buyers should evaluate whether a voluntary “Declaration” is safer than a full “Notice” to achieve deal-close certainty. In an era of heightened geopolitical sensitivity, the “health” of the target’s IP is as much a matter of national security as it is of clinical success.

Conclusion

Navigating the U.S. regulatory maze in 2026 requires a shift from defensive compliance to offensive strategy. By mastering the nuances of “Relative Data,” factoring in “Regulatory Velocity,” and identifying “Small Biotech” safe harbors, European acquirers can turn regulatory complexity into a competitive advantage.

In our next installment, we move from the ‘Legal Maze’ to the ‘Financial Truth,’ exploring the unique hurdles of U.S. GAAP vs. IFRS reconciliation and the art of the HCLS Quality of Earnings report.

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About the Authors:

Federal Reserve officials are increasingly signaling that interest rates may remain unchanged for an extended period as policymakers evaluate whether inflation is cooling enough to justify further adjustments. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack said this week that the central bank’s current policy stance is well positioned to remain steady while officials analyze incoming economic data and the lingering effects of prior rate cuts.

Hammack indicated that monetary policy is close to neutral, meaning it is no longer significantly restraining economic activity. After cutting rates three times last fall, the Federal Reserve has shifted into a wait-and-see mode, focused on determining whether those moves are sufficient to guide inflation back toward its long-term target without risking renewed price pressures.

Inflation remains the central concern. While price growth has slowed from its post-pandemic highs, Hammack noted that inflation has largely moved sideways for more than two years and could remain near 3% throughout 2026. That level is still well above the Fed’s 2% goal, raising the risk that inflation could become more entrenched if policymakers ease too quickly. As a result, she emphasized the need for clear and sustained evidence that inflation is decisively trending lower before considering further rate cuts.

Rather than attempting to fine-tune policy in response to short-term data fluctuations, Hammack expressed a preference for patience. She highlighted the importance of fully assessing the economic impact of last year’s rate reductions, as well as broader trends in growth, consumer demand, and financial conditions. At present, she views the risks of rates needing to move higher or lower as roughly balanced.

Cost pressures facing businesses remain a key area of focus. Hammack said tariffs have increased input costs for many companies, with some already passing those expenses on to consumers and others signaling additional price increases ahead. She also pointed to rising electricity and health insurance costs as factors that could keep inflation elevated. Taken together, these pressures make it difficult to determine whether inflation has fully peaked.

The labor market, however, appears to be on more stable footing. With the unemployment rate at 4.4%, conditions have changed little since last fall. Indicators suggest that job openings and job seekers are largely in balance, while initial claims for unemployment insurance remain low. Although some firms have announced layoffs, overall levels of job cuts remain in line with historical norms.

Looking ahead, Hammack expects economic growth to strengthen over the course of the year. She cited the delayed effects of last year’s rate cuts and ongoing fiscal support as factors that could encourage businesses to resume investment and expansion plans. Stronger growth, in turn, could support hiring and gradually push unemployment lower.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady last month in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Hammack’s comments reinforce the view that policymakers are in no rush to alter policy, signaling that interest rates could remain on hold well into the year as the Fed waits for inflation to show more convincing signs of easing.

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Strengthens Global IP Portfolio for PrimeC Through 2042

CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Feb. 9, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — NeuroSense Therapeutics Ltd. (Nasdaq: NRSN) (“NeuroSense”), a late-clinical stage biotechnology company developing novel treatments for severe neurodegenerative diseases, today announced that the Australian Patent Office (IP Australia) has granted Australian Patent No. 2022370513, entitled “Compositions Comprising Ciprofloxacin and Celecoxib,” representing another strategic step in the continued expansion of the Company’s global intellectual property protection for PrimeC.

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The granted Australian patent, following prior approval of the corresponding U.S. patent (12,097,185), further expands NeuroSense’s patent  protection across key global markets and reinforces the Company’s exclusivity strategy for PrimeC, with patent coverage extending through October 2042. NeuroSense continues to strengthen the company’s global intellectual property estate and to support the long-term development and potential commercialization of PrimeC in ALS, Alzheimer’s disease and other neurodegenerative indications.

 “Securing patent protection in Australia, in addition to the already granted patent in the US, is an important step in executing our global IP protection strategy for PrimeC,” said Alon Ben-Noon, Chief Executive Officer of NeuroSense. “As we advance PrimeC toward pivotal development and potential commercialization, building a broad, durable IP estate across major jurisdictions is central to supporting long-term value creation.”

PrimeC is a proprietary fixed-dose oral therapy combining ciprofloxacin and celecoxib in a synchronized, extended-release formulation specifically engineered to deliver both agents in a coordinated manner – a key differentiator versus simple co-administration. The formulation enables consistent exposure across multiple disease pathways implicated in ALS, including neuroinflammation, iron dysregulation, and miRNA dysregulation, supporting a multi-target disease-modifying approach.

PrimeC is Phase 3-ready in ALS, following positive Phase 2b PARADIGM results and FDA clearance of the pivotal Phase 3 protocol.

About NeuroSense

NeuroSense Therapeutics, Ltd. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on discovering and developing treatments for patients suffering from debilitating neurodegenerative diseases. NeuroSense believes that these diseases, which include amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease, among others, represent one of the most significant unmet medical needs of our time, with limited effective therapeutic options available for patients to date. Due to the complexity of neurodegenerative diseases and based on strong scientific research on a large panel of related biomarkers, NeuroSense’s strategy is to develop combined therapies targeting multiple pathways associated with these diseases.

For additional information, we invite you to visit our website and follow us on LinkedIn, YouTube and X. Information that may be important to investors may be routinely posted on our website and these social media channels.

About PrimeC

PrimeC, NeuroSense’s lead drug candidate, is a novel extended-release oral formulation composed of a unique fixed-dose combination of two FDA-approved drugs: ciprofloxacin and celecoxib. PrimeC is designed to synergistically target several key mechanisms of ALS and AD, that contribute to neuron degeneration, inflammation, iron accumulation and impaired ribonucleic acid (“RNA”) regulation to potentially inhibit the progression of ALS and AD.

About ALS

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (“ALS”) is an incurable neurodegenerative disease that causes complete paralysis and death within 2-5 years from diagnosis. Every year, more than 5,000 people are diagnosed with ALS in the U.S. alone, with an annual disease burden of $1 billion. The number of people living with ALS is expected to grow by 24% by 2040 in the U.S. and EU.

About Alzheimer’s Disease
Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder and the leading cause of dementia worldwide, affecting more than 30 million people globally. AD is characterized by memory loss, cognitive decline, and behavioral changes, and currently has no cure. Existing therapies provide only limited symptomatic relief, leaving a significant unmet need for disease-modifying treatments that can slow or halt progression. Given the complexity of AD, approaches that target multiple disease mechanisms simultaneously, such as PrimeC, hold potential to deliver meaningful therapeutic advances for patients and their families.

Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains “forward-looking statements” that are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, contained in this press release are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements contained in this press release may be identified by the use of words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “contemplate,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “seek,” “may,” “might,” “plan,” “potential,” “predict,” “project,” “target,” “aim,” “should,” “will” “would,” or the negative of these words or other similar expressions, although not all forward-looking statements contain these words. Forward-looking statements are based on NeuroSense Therapeutics’ current expectations and are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and assumptions that are difficult to predict and include statements regarding the timing of regulatory filings, meetings and regulatory decisions. Further, certain forward-looking statements, including statements regarding the length of patent coverage, are based on assumptions as to future events that may not prove to be accurate. The future events and trends may not occur and actual results could differ materially and adversely from those anticipated or implied in the forward looking statements. These risks include the uncertainty regarding outcomes and the timing of current and future clinical trials; timing for reporting data, including from the study of PrimeC in Alzheimer’s disease; that the study will not be successful; the ability of NeuroSense to remain listed on Nasdaq; and other risks and uncertainties set forth in NeuroSense’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). You should not rely on these statements as representing our views in the future. More information about the risks and uncertainties affecting NeuroSense is contained under the heading “Risk Factors” in the Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on April 7, 2025 and NeuroSense’s subsequent filings with the SEC. Forward-looking statements contained in this announcement are made as of this date, and NeuroSense undertakes no duty to update such information except as required under applicable law.

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SOURCE NeuroSense

For further information: For further information: Email: info@neurosense-tx.com, Tel: +972 (0)9 799 6183