Uncategorized Archives - Page 10 of 20

U.S. National Debt Tops $33 Trillion

Posted on September 20, 2023September 20, 2023 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The U.S. national debt surpassed $33 trillion for the first time ever this week, hitting $33.04 trillion according to the Treasury Department. This staggering sum exceeds the size of the entire U.S. economy and equals about $100,000 per citizen.

For investors, the ballooning national debt raises concerns about future tax hikes, inflation, and government spending cuts that could impact markets. While the debt level itself may seem abstract, its trajectory has real implications for portfolios.

Over 50% of the current national debt has accumulated since 2019. Massive pandemic stimulus programs, tax cuts, and a steep drop in tax revenues all blew up the deficit during Covid-19. Interest costs on the debt are also piling up.

Some level of deficit spending was needed to combat the economic crisis. But years of expanding deficits have brought total debt to the highest level since World War II as a share of GDP.

With debt now exceeding the size of the economy, there is greater risk of reduced economic output from crowd-out effects. High debt levels historically hamper GDP growth.

Economists worry that high debt will drive up borrowing costs for consumers and businesses as the government competes for limited capital. The Congressional Budget Office projects interest costs will soon become the largest government expenditure as rates rise.

Higher interest rates will consume more tax revenue just to pay interest, leaving less funding available for programs and services. Taxes may have to be raised to cover these costs.

Rising interest costs will also put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep rates low and monetize the debt through quantitative easing. This could further feed inflation.

If interest costs spiral, government debt could eventually reach unsustainable levels and require restructuring. But well before that, the debt overhang will influence policy and markets.

As debt concerns mount, investors may rotate to inflation hedges like gold and real estate. The likelihood of higher corporate and individual taxes could hit equity valuations and consumer spending.

But government spending cuts to social programs and defense would also ripple through the economy. Leaner budgets would provide fiscal headwinds reducing growth.

With debt limiting stimulus options, creative monetary policy would be needed in the next recession. More radical measures by the Fed could introduce volatility.

While the debt trajectory is troubling, a crisis is not imminent. Still, prudent investors should account for fiscal risks in their portfolio positioning and outlook. The ballooning national debt will shape policy and markets for years to come.

NobleCon19 Presenting Companies

Posted on September 4, 2023December 2, 2023 by cpatches

NobleCon19 Presenters

Investor Registration | P resenting Companies Inquiries | NobleCon19 Web site

The following companies are confirmed for NobleCon19. Check back often, as new companies are added every week. Interested in presenting? Submit a request at the link above.

NobleCon19 Sponsors

Learn More: Seeking Alpha | Privaira | AON | The Money Channel

Financial Firms are Taking More than People as they Leave California and New York

Posted on August 23, 2023August 23, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Putting Numbers on the AUM Leaving the North

While it is no secret that there has been a migration of the finance and investment community out of New York and California, other than piecing together vehicle registrations to count people, there have been few hard numbers put on the firms and their AUM that have pulled out. This week, Bloomberg put hard numbers on the exodus, and it’s worse than most imagined. Looking at corporate filings back to the end of 2019, it found that more than 17,000 firms have moved. The two states have lost assets under management (AUM), within their borders, totaling more than $1 trillion.

This has also meant a lot of above average paying jobs, which saps tax revenue, and stresses state budgets. The commercial real estate markets in the two high-tax states have also taken a big hit as deep-pocketed tenants have packed up and left at a time when remote and hybrid work have already bled demand.

The Bloomberg piece makes clear that New York City remains the global center for asset management, but while New York is being slowly drained, it is “fueling a boom” down south. The article discusses the soaring Miami home prices and lifestyle improvements. In Dallas, the finance industry is expanding at a pace reminiscent of the 1980s oil bust. Charles Schwab moved to the area in 2020, and now Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo are working to create office space to accommodate thousands of employees.

The moves continue to be inspired by costs and weather, and now face-to-face meetings are easier as the Dallas or Boca Raton associate is no longer an “out-of-towner”. The migration has dramatically increased the growth of professionals in the industry, in areas that previously had very few financial firms.

“The Sun Belt is continuing to change – no longer just a place of traditional industries like oil and gas, no longer just focused on tourism, of focusing on the retirement community,” Bloomberg quotes Amy Liu, interim President of the Brookings Institute, as saying.

From the beginning of 2020 through the end of the first quarter 2023, more than 370 investment companies decided to make a move. The companies represent 2.5% of the US total, and manage $2.7 trillion in assets. A high percentage was from the Northeast and the West Coast to Florida and Texas. But, North Carolina and Tennessee together grew by $600 billion in assets now managed within their borders. This is primarily from Alliance Bernstein moving out of New York and to Nashville, and Allspring Global Investment out of San Franciso and to Charlotte.

The AUM Migration by Region (Q1 2020 – Q1 2023)

Washington State saw three firms leave during this period, but the assets under management in the state dropped 19% as a result, as Fisher Investments was one of the three. Connecticut, a long-time suburb of the Big Apple is known for the hedge funds that have been headquartered there and enjoying lower taxes than in “the city.” The proximity to New York and the rising Connecticut taxes were traded by enough firms that Florida now has more assets under management than Connecticut.

Florida acquired the most assets from the migration from New York, Ark Investment Management, run by Cathie Wood, and Carl Icahn’s Icahn Capital Management were prominent names. Ken Griffin’s Citadel from Chicago is altering the South Florida skyline as it builds out offices, and DoubleLine moved from Los Angeles to Florida’s West Coast.

Smaller firms are on the move too. Whether they are following the sun, or the wealthy baby boomers, Palm Beach saw 37 investment advisors relocate, and Miami experienced an influx of 63 advisors.

The AUM in these new states is being enhanced by wealthy individuals also picking up and moving from their higher-tax residences. Tiger 21, a worldwide network of more than 1200 high net-worth investors, with assets over $150 billion, has grown its Florida chapter.

Take Away

The only thing that stays the same is change, as the saying goes. The pandemic brought on a lot of changes that most did not see coming. The migration out of places widely viewed as more difficult to live in because of costs, or year-round temperatures includes powerful financial firms. These firms are bringing in professionals who are accustomed to a certain way of conducting business. Until recently, the ability to do business this way did not fully exist in the areas where their firms have relocated – now it does.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-asset-management-relocation-wall-street-south/

No Suit, No Tie, No Problem – What Happens in Jackson Hole?

Posted on August 22, 2023August 22, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

What to Expect Out of This Year’s Jackson Hole Symposium

Since 1978, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City has sponsored an annual event to discuss an important economic issue facing the U.S. and world economies. From 1982, the symposium has been hosted at the Jackson Lake Lodge at Grand Teton National Park, in Wyoming. The event brings together economists, financial market participants, academics, U.S. government representatives, and news media to discuss long-term policy issues of mutual concern. The 2023 Economic Policy Symposium. “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy,” will be held Aug. 24-26.

Those attending are selected based on each year’s topic with consideration for regional diversity, background, and industry. In a typical year, about 120 people attend.

The event features a collegiate feel with thoughtful discussion among the participants. The caliber and status of participants and the important topics being discussed draw substantial interest from the financial community in the symposium. Despite the interest in the annual event, The Jackson Hole event works best as a smaller open discussion, attendance at the event is limited.

Similarly, although the Federal Reserve District Bank receives numerous requests from media outlets worldwide, press attendance is also limited to a group that is selected to provide important transparency to the symposium, but not overwhelm or influence the proceedings. All symposium participants, including members of the press, pay a fee to attend. The fees are then used to recover event expenses.

Source: Federal Reserve, Kansas City, MO

What’s discussed?

The Kansas City Fed chooses the topic each year and asks experts to write papers on related subtopics. To date, more than 150 authors have presented papers on topics such as inflation, labor markets and international trade. All papers are available online.

Papers provided to the Bank in advance and presented at the annual economic policy symposium will be posted online at the time they are presented at the event. Other papers, such as conference comments, are posted as they become available. Additionally, transcripts of the proceedings are posted on the website as they become available, a process that generally takes a few months. Finally, the papers and transcripts are compiled into proceedings books which are both posted on the website and published in a volume that is available online or in print, free of charge.

Worldwide Representation

The goal of the Economic Policy Symposium when it began was to provide a vehicle for promoting public discussion and exchanging ideas. Throughout the event’s history in Jackson Hole, attendees from 70 countries have gathered to share their diverse perspectives and experiences.

This year’s theme will explore several significant, and potentially long-lasting, developments affecting the global economy. While the immediate disruption of the pandemic is fading, there likely will be long-lasting aftereffects for how economies are structured, both domestically and globally, as trade networks shift, and global financial flows react. Similarly, the policy response to the pandemic and its aftermath could have persistent effects as economies adjust to rapid shifts in the stance of monetary policy and a substantial increase in sovereign debt. The papers will share how these developments are likely to affect the context for growth and monetary policy in the coming decade.

The full agenda will be available at the start of the event on Thursday, Aug. 24 at 8 p.m. ET/6 p.m. MT. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks will be streamed on the Kansas City Fed’s YouTube channel, on Friday, Aug. 25 at 10:05 a.m. ET/8:05 a.m. MT. Papers and other materials will be posted on the Kansas City Fed’s website as they are presented during the event.

What Else

The markets seem to be expecting hawkish comments from the US Central Bank President on Friday at Jackson Hole. This is being priced in, as investors expect the Fed Chair may say something that spooks the bond market which naturally impacts stocks. There has been a lot of talk about how central banks globally should treat target inflation, all ears will be on that subject.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Are Reverse Stock Splits a Red Flag?

Posted on August 22, 2023August 22, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

There are Many Reasons for a Reverse Split; All are Designed to Benefit Stakeholders

So far this quarter, there have been 59 reverse stock splits. These include industries as diverse as the apparel company Digital Brands Group (DBGI), which is consolidating its shares today, and Blue Apron (APRN), an e-commerce food prep provider, back on July 8th. In theory, this is a financial arrangement similar to asking for a $100 bill in exchange for five $20 dollar bills. But the reasons are more complicated and diverse. Understanding why a company you own, or are considering buying or shorting shares in, is consolidating ownership units can help you understand if the new shares are more likely to gain or lose value.

Background

As with the exchange of smaller denominated bills for larger ones, a reverse stock split is an action in which a company reduces its total outstanding shares while proportionally increasing the price per new share. It’s done by the company’s registrar by combining a certain number of existing shares into a single new share. For example, a 1-for-10 reverse stock split would result in every 10 shares of the company being converted into 1 new share.

From the shareholder side, their percentage ownership in the company remains unchanged; the value of that percentage will change as market forces revalue those shares.

Reasons for a Reverse Split

A corporate action such as a reverse split is not inexpensive for the company, so if it is conducting one, it must see a benefit. The primary reasons range from crisis management to an attempt to broaden the share’s appeal.

The category of crisis management includes working to prevent delisting from an exchange. The major stock exchanges have minimum share price requirements. If a company’s stock price falls below this minimum, it will be delisted from the exchange. Back in March, Bed Bath and Beyond went to shareholders asking for permission to do a reverse split in order to not be delisted for having a stock price lower than the Nasdaq threshold. The company was criticized as it showed that management did not have confidence that the price would rise on its own. At times when a company is approaching the minimum threshold for being listed on an exchange, they will look to do a reverse split, this can boost the per share price and prevent delisting.

In some cases there isn’t a crisis; management is simply managing perception in an effort to improve the stock’s image. This is because a stock that trades at a low price may be perceived as being risky or unpopular. A reverse stock split can give the appearance of a more valuable stock, which may attract more investors.

Conforming to the requirements of certain buyers, specifically institutional investors may also lead to a reverse split. Many institutional investors have minimum investment requirements. A reverse stock split can help to make a stock more attractive to these investors.

Bringing up the dollar price to simplify trading is another reason. A reverse stock split can make it easier to trade a stock, especially if the shares have a price below one dollar.

The Caution Signs When a Company Undergoes a Reverse Split

There are certainly potential negatives to shareholders when a company has a reverse stock split. For example, a reverse stock split can decrease liquidity, making it less liquid; for example, it may be more difficult to buy or sell.

Some investors may view a reverse stock split as a negative signal about the company’s financial health; if the action isn’t expected to cure the ailment, it may serve to feed into a growing list of things investors don’t like about the company.

Shareholders could wind up owning a lesser portion of the company if the split results in fractional shares. For example, if the stock you own 97 shares in reverse 1 for 10. You’ll receive 9 shares and, most often, the cash equivalent of seven shares.

Ultimately, whether or not a reverse stock split is a good idea for a company depends on the specific circumstances. Investors should carefully consider the pros and cons before making a decision about whether or not to buy or sell a stock that has undergone or is being talked about as considering a reverse stock split. In most cases only board of director approval is required.

Opportunity for Investors?

The opportunities for investors after a reverse stock split depends on the reasons for the split. If the split is done to prevent delisting, it is likely that the stock price will increase in the short term. However, if the split is done for other reasons, such as to improve the stock’s image or to make it more attractive to institutional investors, the long-term impact on the stock price is uncertain. Remember, management presumably got board approval as they thought it was in the best interest of the company; as a shareholder, you are technically an owner and would reap any benefit of it turning out to be a good move.

Take Away

A reverse stock split means the number of shares owned will be reduced, but the ownership level will remain the same. The price per share will increase, but the market capitalization of the company will change little. The reverse stock split may have a negative impact on the liquidity of the stock. It may also be seen as a negative by some investors.

Overall, reverse stock splits are always conducted for with the best interest of the company onwers in mind. But the reasons for the move, and if it will be successful needs to be evaluated by stockholders.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/dbgi-announces-1-for-25-reverse-stock-split-effective-august-22-2023-301905859.html

https://www.securitieslawyer101.com

The Week Ahead – Jackson Hole, Johannesburg, Consumer Sentiment

Posted on August 20, 2023August 20, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Powell’s Talk at the Jacksonhole Symposium Won’t be Until Friday

The light economic calendar is likely to take a backseat to the annual Jackson Hole Symposium this week and the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa. In Jackson Hole, the overriding theme is “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy”. The annual meeting is intended to have an overriding academic tone, but the number of Fed policymakers involved allows the markets to listen for any meaningful interest rate bias. The expected focus is on remarks from those actually conducting monetary policy, US central bankers. Powell is scheduled to give his speech on the “Economic Outlook” at 10:05 ET on Friday. Meanwhile, 9,900 miles away, the BRICS group of major emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – will hold its heads of state and government summit in Johannesburg from Aug. 22-24. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to attend in person. Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend in person, as there is an arrest warrant out related to the war in Ukraine. He is expected to attend virtually. The markets will be interested to see if the group expands by allowing other countries,also any news related to the New Development Bank (NDB) sometimes called the BRICS bank, and all around economic cooperation.

Stocks may also take their cue from interest rates and the longer end of the yield curve, which has begun adjusting with rising rates for longer-dated maturities.

Monday 8/21

• There is no key data being released and no expected talks or events with market implications.

Tuesday 8/22

• 7:30 AM ET, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin is scheduled to speak. Recent comments from Barkin have been hopeful. Barkin recently said the greater-than-expected easing in inflation in June may be an indication that the US economy can have a “soft landing,” returning to price stability without a damaging recession.

• 10:00 AM ET, the Existing Home Sales annual rate for July is to be at the same level as it was in June, 4.16 million. The National Association of Realtors has been citing a lack of available inventory for the slow pace of sales as existing homeowners are choosing to keep their lower mortgage rates.

• 2:30 PM ET, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak. Goolsbee has made it clear he is on the fence as to whether tightening at the September meeting is warranted.

Wednesday 8/23

• 9:45 AM ET, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) composite for services is expected to show that the number holds above 50 in July, as it has for the last six PMI releases. As for manufacturing, the consensus is 48.8, which would be down a bit from the 49 reported in June.

• 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales in July, a month before mortgage rates began their recent spike, is expected to move higher to a 702,000 annual rate after slowing to 697,000 in June which, though lower than expected, was still the second highest rate in more than a year.

• 10:30 PM ET, EIA The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides the Petroleum Status Report weekly with information on petroleum inventories in the US, whether produced in the US or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.

• 8:30 PM ET, BRICS Summit.

• 11:00 PM ET, Jackson Hole Symposium.

Thursday 8/24

• 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders are forecast to fall 4% for August after a 4.6% increase in July, pushed higher by aircraft orders. Ex-transportation orders are forecast to be up 0.2%, with core capital goods orders unchanged.

• 4:30 AM ET, The Fed’s Balance Sheet is expected to have decreased by $31.208 billion to $8.146 trillion for the seven day period ending August 23. This would be a $61.5 billion decline. Market participants and Fed watchers look to this weekly set of numbers to determine, among other things if the Fed is on track with its stated quantitative tightening (QT) plan.

Friday 8/25

• 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment is expected to end August at 71.2, unchanged from August’s mid-month flash with year-ahead inflation expectations also expected to be unchanged at 3.3%.

• 10:05 AM ET, US Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to give his address at Jackson Hole.

What Else

Have you attended an in-person roadshow organized by Noble Capital Markets? Noble has been reaching out to retail and institutional investors and holding these events designed for investors to meet management teams. Investors have been able to discover more about their companies, often enough to make an informed decision. The forum has been getting rave reviews from investors and company management teams. Use this link to see if a roadshow is scheduled near you.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

Release – Baudax Bio Announces $1.9 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-The-Market under Nasdaq Rules

Posted on August 17, 2023August 17, 2023 by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Research News and Market Data on BXRX

August 17, 2023 8:00am EDT

MALVERN, Pa., Aug. 17, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Baudax Bio, Inc. (the “Company” or “Baudax Bio”) (Nasdaq: BXRX), a biotechnology company focused on developing T cell receptor therapies utilizing human regulatory T cells, as well as a portfolio of clinical stage Neuromuscular Blocking Agents and an associated reversal agent, today announced that it has entered into definitive agreements for the purchase and sale of 2,006,544 shares of its common stock and 1,395,243 Series E pre-funded warrants at a purchase price of $0.56 per share of common stock (or $0.55 per prefunded warrant) in a registered direct offering priced at-the-market under Nasdaq rules. In addition, in a concurrent private placement, the Company will issue unregistered series A-7 common stock purchase warrants (the “warrants”) to purchase up to 3,401,787 shares of common stock. The warrants have an initial exercise price of $0.56 per share and are not exercisable until the shareholders of the Company approve the issuance of the underlying shares (the “Approval”). The warrants are exercisable for a period of five years commencing from the date the Approval is obtained. Additionally, the exercise price of the warrants will be adjusted upon the Company effecting a reverse stock split, if the post-reverse stock split exercise price of the warrants is higher than the lowest daily VWAP of the common stock during the five trading days following the reverse stock split (the “Adjustment”). If the Adjustment is applicable, the exercise price of the warrants will be reduced to the lowest daily VWAP of the common stock during the five trading days following such reverse stock split, and the number of shares issuable upon exercise of the warrants shall increase such that the aggregate exercise price payable as a result of such Adjustment shall be equal to the aggregate exercise price payable prior to such Adjustment. The closing of the registered direct offering and the concurrent private placement is expected to occur on or about August 21, 2023, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

The gross proceeds from the offerings, before deducting offering expenses payable by the Company, are expected to be approximately $1.9 million. The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offerings for pipeline development activities and general corporate purposes.

The shares of common stock, the prefunded warrants and the shares of common stock underlying the prefunded warrants described above (but not the series A-7 warrants issued in the concurrent private placement or the shares of common stock underlying such warrants) are being offered by the Company pursuant to a “shelf” registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-253117) previously filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) and declared effective by the SEC on September 2, 2021. The offering in the registered direct offering of the shares of common stock, prefunded warrants and the shares of common stock issuable thereunder is made only by means of a prospectus, including a prospectus supplement, forming a part of the effective registration statement. A final prospectus supplement and accompanying prospectus relating to the registered direct offering will be filed with the SEC. Electronic copies of the final prospectus supplement and accompanying prospectus, when available, may be obtained on the SEC’s website at http://www.sec.gov.

The warrants described above are being issued in a concurrent private placement under Section 4(a)(2) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), and, along with the shares of common stock underlying the warrants, have not been registered under the Securities Act, or applicable state securities laws. Accordingly, the warrants and underlying shares of common stock may not be offered or sold in the United States except pursuant to an effective registration statement or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act and such applicable state securities laws.

In addition, on August 16, 2023, the Company also amended its series A-5 warrants to purchase 3,478,262 shares of the Company’s common stock (the “Series A-5 Warrants”) and series A-6 warrants to purchase 3,478,262 shares of the Company’s common stock (the “Series A-6 Warrants” and, collectively, the “Amended Warrants”) to (i) adjust the exercise price per share of common stock of the Amended Warrants to $0.56 per share of common stock, (ii) extend the expiration date of the Series A-5 Warrants to August 21, 2028 and (iii) extend the expiration date of the Series A-6 Warrants to February 21, 2025.

This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities described herein, nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or other jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or other jurisdiction.

About Baudax Bio

Baudax Bio is a biotechnology company focused on developing T cell receptor (“TCR”) therapies utilizing human regulatory T cells (“Tregs”), as well as a portfolio of clinical stage Neuromuscular Blocking Agents (“NMBs”) and an associated reversal agent. Our TCR Treg programs primarily focus on immune modulating therapies for orphan diseases or complications associated with such diseases, as well as the treatment of autoimmune disorders. We believe that our TCR Treg programs have the potential to provide valuable therapeutic options to patients suffering from diseases for which there are limited treatment options and significant unmet need, as well as to prescribers and payers in these markets.

Forward Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Such forward-looking statements reflect Baudax Bio’s expectations about its future performance and opportunities that involve substantial risks and uncertainties. When used herein, the words “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “may,” “upcoming,” “plan,” “target,” “goal,” “intend” and “expect” and similar expressions, as they relate to Baudax Bio or its management, are intended to identify such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may include, without limitation, statements regarding market conditions, the closing of the offerings, the satisfaction of the closing conditions of the offerings, the approval of the warrants by the Company’s stockholders, and the use of net proceeds from the offerings. These forward-looking statements are based on information available to Baudax Bio as of the date of publication of this press release and are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause Baudax Bio’s performance to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, among other things, whether Baudax Bio will be able to successfully integrate the TeraImmune operations; whether Baudax’s shareholders will approve the conversion of the Series X Non-Voting Convertible Preferred Stock; whether Baudax Bio’s cash resources will be sufficient to fund its continuing operations and the newly acquired TeraImmune operations, including the liabilities of TeraImmune incurred in connection with the completion of the transactions; risks related to market, economic and other conditions, Baudax Bio’s ability to advance its product candidate pipeline through pre-clinical studies and clinical trials, that interim results may not be indicative of final results in clinical trials, that earlier-stage trials may not be indicative of later-stage trials, the approvability of product candidates, Baudax Bio’s ability to raise future financing for continued development of its product candidates, Baudax Bio’s ability to pay its debt and to comply with the financial and other covenants under its credit facility, Baudax Bio’s ability to manage costs and execute on its operational and budget plans, Baudax Bio’s ability to achieve its financial goals; Baudax Bio’s ability to maintain listing on the Nasdaq Capital Market; and Baudax Bio’s ability to obtain, maintain and successfully enforce adequate patent and other intellectual property protection. These forward-looking statements should be considered together with the risks and uncertainties that may affect Baudax Bio’s business and future results included in Baudax Bio’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission at www.sec.gov. These forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to Baudax Bio, and Baudax Bio assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements except as required by applicable law.

Investor Relations Contact:

Mike Moyer
LifeSci Advisors
mmoyer@lifesciadvisors.com

Source: Baudax Bio

Released August 17, 2023

Are We in a Period of Value Outperformance?

Posted on August 17, 2023August 17, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Why Growth Companies May Take a Backseat for a While

Most everything runs in cycles; this is especially true for investment trends, investment styles, and investment performance or results. It looks like value investing has been making its long-awaited return to favor. This could be good news for investors that are frightened of the dizzying heights reached by tech’s top performers (the bigger they are, the harder they could fall) and provide an opportunity for those that know stock market history and expect it to repeat its time-tested performance attributes.

Value Versus Growth

It makes sense to quickly define value stocks and growth stocks as there are big differences, even though to the untrained, it may sound like we are talking about the same thing.

Growth stocks are stocks that are expected to outpace the overall market. These stocks are typically priced higher, using metrics we’ll discuss later, than value stocks because investors are willing to pay a premium for the expected future earnings growth. The definition can include large-cap companies still on a high growth trajectory like Apple (AAPL) or Tesla (TSLA), and small-cap companies such as AI company Soundhound (SOUN) or microcap companies like last quarter’s digital mining favorite Bit Digital (BTBT).

Value stocks are those trading for less than their intrinsic value. This means that for any one of a number of reasons, including momentum traders being distracted from value, the stock is priced below what the investor believes it should be worth. Put simply; value investors believe that they can identify stocks that are undervalued because they are not current “favorites” in the market. Large-cap examples could include well-established consumer goods company Proctor and Gamble (PG) as it is stable and growing, but not with great speed, or small-cap digital, television, and audio provider Entravision (EVC). Microcap companies may also be considered value stocks, take for example dry-bulk shipping company, Eurodry (EDRY). While the company has earnings and pays an above-average dividend, the nature of the business does not place its earnings expectations to become a multiple of its current business five or ten years from now.

The Important History

Going back more than 40 years to the decade of the 1980s value stocks outperformed; the 1990s were led by growth opportunities. Then, in 2000, value investing beat growth for seven consecutive years. From there growth companies dominated through 2021. These are long cycles. In 2020, the year of ample stimulus money and Robinhood trading, growth seemed to have reached a crescendo and may have concluded its outperformance cycle with the strongest leg, beating value by more than 30 percentage points – the widest margin since at least 1927. Then, in 2021 value became the more dominant provider of performance. While trends are best seen in the rearview mirror, it appears that value investing has made and is continuing to make a comeback.

Last year, 2022, value beat growth by almost 25%, that is, using as a benchmark the S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) relative to the S&P 500 Value ETF (IVE). Both were down, but growth fell by 29.5% while value dipped by 5.4%.

Those that missed the growth stock go-go part of the cycle can only wish they could turn back time. Instead they must play the cards that are in their hands now. You can’t invest on yesterday’s circumstances. The question now is, has there been an ongoing shift to value, and how far can it go? Will it make up for the many underperforming years?

Are We in a Period of Value Outperformance?

One point already made is that markets and segments of the financial markets run in cycles. That actually lacks a clear definition. Surmising that over a long enough time period, the two will take turns outperforming with value more often, providing higher returns to investors lacks definition and traditional factors for one to outperform.

Over the last decade, low interest rates brought a lot of investors into the stock market. Most of those years investors were highly rewarded. Those with a greater risk tolerance did best which increased the risk appetite across the board. Growth, especially on the technology front, was rapid, during the pandemic. The demand for technology reached a peak and was met with investor cash as factors like stimulus checks, no commission trades, smartphone trading apps, and free time all converged at once. No wonder 2021 was so strong.

Consider this: The Price Earnings Ratio (P/E) of the Nasdaq 100 is 30.25, that is to say the average stock is priced at over 30 times annual earnings. The growth ETF IVW is at 23.5 times earnings. Meanwhile, the P/E of the value ETF IVE is only 20.6 times earnings. If earnings of past high flyers discontinue their growth trajectory either by increased costs such as interest rates or decreased sales partly prompted by the Fed injecting cash into the system, their growth may stall for some time. Investors will have to look for opportunity elsewhere, in other words, find value. The cheaper stocks (lower P/E) are where they have turned in the past, which keeps the two running in cycles.

Take Away

Value had a much better year than growth last year and seems to be in a position to make up for over a decade of lost ground to the riskier growth stocks. A portion of yesterday’s demand may have been met and likely borrowed from today’s demand for products involving communication and technology. For instance, Apple is expected to sell far fewer smartphones this year.

The year 2022 was a wake up call for those involved that became accustomed to making money each time they chased and bought an already expensive stock. These stocks now are competing with certificates of deposit rates at the local bank, and the idea that there is too wide of a gap between growth and value. For those that are long-term investors, they may look at history and decide that stocks, not fixed income, will provide the most return. Using a similar comparison, they may also expect that for growth and value to approach their normal relationship to each other, value will need a few years of significant outperformance or many years of mild outperformance. Either way, value investing is now the easier argument to make.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-stock-price-buy-iphone-15-94f742a2?mod=Searchresults

https://am.jpmorgan.com/gb/en/asset-management/adv/insights/value-vs-growth-investing/

Release – Labrador Gold Reports High Grade Gold Assays Up to 30.58g/t Au Between Big Vein and Golden Glove

Posted on August 16, 2023August 16, 2023 by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Research News and Market Data on NKOSF

TORONTO, Aug. 16, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Labrador Gold Corp. (TSX.V:LAB | OTCQX:NKOSF | FNR: 2N6) (“LabGold” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce results from recent prospecting along the highly prospective Appleton Fault Zone at its 100% owned Kingsway Project.

Recent prospecting between Big Vein and Golden Glove near the southern property boundary has located a new gold showing, the Knobby occurrence. Grab samples from quartz vein outcrops returned gold values from below detection (<5ppb) to 30.58 g/t including samples grading 0.4g/t, 2.7g/t and 29.19 g/t Au. Three parallel veins were observed and have been traced along an east-west strike for approximately 200 metres. Stibnite mineralization was observed associated with the quartz veining. This is the first indication of gold mineralization along the Appleton Fault Zone between Big Vein and Golden Glove, an area that has seen little work to date.

“Today’s results of high-grade, surface gold mineralization in quartz vein outcrops between Big Vein and Golden Glove is very encouraging for the prospectivity of this 3-kilometre section of the Appleton Fault Zone,” said Roger Moss, President and CEO of Labrador Gold Corp. “This is an area that we have prioritized for drilling in the latter part of this year once we complete an ongoing ground magnetic/VLF survey and receive the necessary permits. We are excited by the discovery of the Knobby occurrence which is reminiscent of our initial discovery of Big Vein by prospecting almost three years ago.”

Figure 1. Location of Knobby occurrence between Big Vein and Golden Glove.

Figure 2. Geochemical anomalies between Big Vein and Golden Glove.

Figure 3. Photos of Knobby Vein outcrop.

Prospecting is ongoing in the area of the Knobby occurrence and Groundtruth Exploration is currently completing a ground Mag/VLF survey extending from the southern property boundary to Big Vein. LabGold has submitted an application to drill up to 95 drill holes along this portion of the Appleton Fault Zone.

Upcoming Webinar

The Company is also pleased to announce that LabGold CEO, Roger Moss, will be presenting an exploration update on the Kingsway Project in a live webinar taking place on Wednesday, August 23rd at 12:00pm PT / 3:00pm ET. To register for the event please click the link below.

Registration Link: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/229/p512nhoy

QA/QC

All rock samples are grab samples, which are selective samples and not necessarily representative of mineralization found on the property. Samples are securely stored prior to shipping to Eastern Analytical Laboratory in Springdale, Newfoundland for assay. Eastern Analytical is an ISO/IEC17025 accredited laboratory. Samples are routinely analyzed for gold by standard 30g fire assay with atomic absorption finish as well as by ICP-OES for an additional 34 elements. Samples containing visible gold are assayed by metallic screen/fire assay, as are any samples with fire assay results greater than 1g/t Au. The company submits blanks and certified reference standards at a rate of approximately 5% of the total samples in each batch.

Qualified Person

Roger Moss, PhD., P.Geo., President and CEO of LabGold, a Qualified Person in accordance with Canadian regulatory requirements as set out in NI 43-101, has read and approved the scientific and technical information that forms the basis for the disclosure contained in this release.

The Company gratefully acknowledges the Newfoundland and Labrador Ministry of Natural Resources’ Junior Exploration Assistance (JEA) Program for its financial support for exploration of the Kingsway property.

About Labrador Gold
Labrador Gold is a Canadian based mineral exploration company focused on the acquisition and exploration of prospective gold projects in Eastern Canada.

Labrador Gold’s flagship property is the 100% owned Kingsway project in the Gander area of Newfoundland. The three licenses comprising the Kingsway project cover approximately 12km of the Appleton Fault Zone which is associated with numerous gold occurrences in the region. Infrastructure in the area is excellent located just 18km from the town of Gander with road access to the project, nearby electricity and abundant local water. LabGold is drilling a projected 100,000 metres targeting high-grade epizonal gold mineralization along the Appleton Fault Zone with encouraging results. The Company has approximately $12 million in working capital and is well funded to carry out the planned program.

The Hopedale property covers much of the Florence Lake greenstone belt that stretches over 60 km. The belt is typical of greenstone belts around the world but has been underexplored by comparison. Work to date by Labrador Gold show gold anomalies in rocks, soils and lake sediments over a 3 kilometre section of the northern portion of the Florence Lake greenstone belt in the vicinity of the known Thurber Dog gold showing where grab samples assayed up to 7.8g/t gold. In addition, anomalous gold in soil and lake sediment samples occur over approximately 40 km along the southern section of the greenstone belt. Labrador Gold now controls approximately 40km strike length of the Florence Lake Greenstone Belt.

The Company has 170,009,979 common shares issued and outstanding and trades on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol LAB.

For more information please contact:
Roger Moss, President and CEO Tel: 416-704-8291

Or visit our website at: www.labradorgold.com

Twitter: @LabGoldCorp

Neither TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release .

Forward-Looking Statements: This news release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made. When used in this document, the words “may”, “would”, “could”, “will”, “intend”, “plan”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “expect” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Such statements reflect our current views with respect to future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors could cause our actual results to differ materially from the statements made, including those factors discussed in filings made by us with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities. Should one or more of these risks and uncertainties, such as actual results of current exploration programs, the general risks associated with the mining industry, the price of gold and other metals, currency and interest rate fluctuations, increased competition and general economic and market factors, occur or should assumptions underlying the forward looking statements prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described herein as intended, planned, anticipated, or expected. We do not intend and do not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, except as required by law. Shareholders are cautioned not to put undue reliance on such forward-looking statements.

Photos accompanying this announcement are available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/c137ff09-83ff-4af6-bd78-6016e5ada881

https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/8295dae2-bf35-4a45-a5cb-4b55b1ade38d

https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/8a69be67-4ea5-4115-876e-ff296fde420a

https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/5f746398-66df-47df-a945-5a19184f9aa9

Yellen Feels Cautiously Optimistic About U.S. Prospects

Posted on August 16, 2023August 16, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Image: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Las Vegas, Nevada, US, on Monday, Aug. 14, 2023.

China’s Economic slowdown is a “Risk Factor” for US, Says Treasury Secretary Yellen

A month after returning from her visit to China, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen opened up about the interplay between the two countries’ economies, the risks the Chinese slowdown has on the U.S., and a side trip she took courtesy of ingesting magic mushrooms. Addressing growing concerns over the economic downturn in the world’s second-largest economy, and possible spillover effects to the U.S., the Treasurer was optimistic about her country’s path.

China and U.S.

Amidst the growing concerns surrounding China’s economic prospects, including a 5% devaluation of the yuan, and across-the-board weakening economic indicators, China now has the worst-performing currency in Asia after the yen.

Treasury Secretary Yellen, speaking in Las Vegas, seemed to be undoing some of the recent strong talk from U.S. President Biden at a fundraiser on August 11. Biden referred to China’s economic issues as a “ticking time bomb” and referred to Communist Party leaders as “bad folks.” The U.S. President expressed concerns about China’s slowed growth and elevated unemployment rate. She was speaking at a press conference following a speech in Las Vegas. Yellen referred to China’s economic woes as a “risk factor” for the US, a risk that she believes won’t significantly undermine the overall prospects of the American economy.

As Yellen touted the economic policy achievements of the Biden administration, she highlighted the resilient state of the US economy.

Risks to U.S.

In classic economist style, Yellen hedged her “low risk” comments by suggesting there is a possibility that while China’s slowdown will primarily impact its neighboring Asian nations, there will inevitably be some repercussions for the United States.

Yellen strongly emphasized uncertainty, “That said, I feel very good about US prospects overall. Let’s call that a risk, she said, signalling her measured optimism amidst the uncertainties linked to China’s economic trajectory. Yellen underscored the unexpectedly robust state of the U.S. labor market despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking campaign – one of the most vigorous tightening efforts in decades.

Janet Yellen spoke on CNN about her meal in China

Psychedelic Side Trip?

While in Beijing, Yellen made a bit of a stir both in China and in her home country for having been seen easting a psychedelic mushroom-based dish called Jian shou qing, or “see hand blue”, a fungi dish known for being hallucinogenic.

Yellen spoke about her experiences on CNN. She recognized the humor of the episode but said that the cooked food had no side effects.

Take Away

The U.S. economy is likely to be impacted by trade with the world’s second-largest economy. According to the U.S. Treasury Secretary, weakness in China will be somewhat contagious. She remains cautious but optimistic that the robust state of growth and employment in the U.S will serve to minimize negative effects.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Cathie Wood Believes the Fed is Playing Economic Jenga

Posted on August 15, 2023August 15, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Ark Invest Warns of a Deflationary Ripple that Could Spread Around the Globe

Pricing, whether it be of the stock market, private placements, or other alternative investments is impacted by investor demand, and demand is the result of differing views. Cathie Wood, the Ark Investment Management CEO, has held the view that the U.S. and global economies are close to a deflationary spiral. She pointed to more evidence this week, and sounded the alarm for the potential dire consequences of the Federal Reserve’s ongoing rate tightening measures. According to Wood, deflation tied to China and actions by the U.S. central bank could set off a chain reaction of deflation-induced economic slowdowns, not just within the United States but across international markets.

Source @CathieDWood (X, August 14, 2023)

Ms. Wood, the 67-year-old market veteran, who falls in the category of celebrity investor, has many fans and followers. She shared her concerns in a string of posts on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. Wood stated, “China is exporting deflation in a more profound way than I believe many economists and strategists appreciate.”

She explained that producer prices in China, the world’s second largest economy, were impacted by the U.S. dollar strengthening by 15% against the Chinese yuan, despite the devaluation adding around 15% to Chinese PPI, the Chinese reported a decline in the PPI inflation measure by 4%.

Wood expressed China is exporting deflation. She posted that, under normal circumstances, the 15% depreciation of the yuan against the dollar in 2022 should have led to a 15% increase in China’s annual producer inflation rate. Since it instead dropped 4%, In her math, this is creating near a 20% downdraft on prices of Chinese goods.

Turning her focus to China’s economic trajectory, Wood recounted the country’s impressive growth following its entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001. Over nearly two decades, China’s real GDP experienced a sustained double-digit expansion. However, Wood pointed out that rapid growth often conceals underlying economic vulnerabilities, including excessive debt and leverage. Her firm believes these vulnerabilities are now creating cracks in China’s economy.

Wood suggested that China might attempt to halt the depreciation of the yuan. However, this would necessitate selling off U.S. dollars and acquiring yuan, which, in turn, tightens monetary policy and fuels the economy’s fragility, even amid efforts to stimulate it.

Ark Invest’s CEO posted, “The Fed has precipitated and exacerbated the risk of a global deflationary bust.” Drawing attention to the central bank’s remarkable 22-fold increase in the Fed funds rate, Wood warned that the repercussions of this move would first impact China and subsequently ripple through the rest of the world.

Recent economic data from China underscores the challenges it currently faces. Second-quarter GDP growth came in at 6.3%, falling short of the 7.3% projection by economists. Furthermore, new bank loans for July plummeted by 89% month-over-month, marking the lowest level since 2009, according to data from the People’s Bank of China.

The deflationary trend is evident in inflation figures as well. July inflation data showed both consumer and producer price inflation rates in negative territory.

Adding to the concerns, a trio of data released from the China National Bureau of Statistics revealed lackluster performance. Retail sales rose by a modest 2.5% year-over-year in July, well below the anticipated 4.5% increase. Industrial Production also lagged, with a 3.7% rise compared to the consensus estimate of 4.4%. Moreover, fixed asset investment figures raised further questions about the country’s economic health.

Take Away

There are certainly competing inflation forecasts opposing those coming out of Cathie Wood’s firm. However, her warnings do serve as a reminder, from a veteran in the asset management business, of the interconnectedness of global economies and the potential ramifications of central bank policy decisions. As markets continue to navigate the crosscurrents, attention remains on policymakers and economic indicators for signs of any change in trends.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

Cathie Wood’s X Post

http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202308/t20230815_1942019.html

Investors in Gambling are Winning Big this Year

Posted on August 11, 2023August 11, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

How the Popularity of Parlay Betting is Helping the Major Players

The business of gambling keeps growing as more types of wagers become popular and a friendlier legal environment encourages major players like DraftKings (DKNG) and FanDuel (PDYPF), as well as smaller online sites. A new online betting trend has been particularly profitable for companies who include it in their product line-up. Although specific financials remain undisclosed, parlay betting has dramatically added to the bottom line of some sportsbooks.

While not public, an analysis published in Barron’s of state gambling regulatory data shows the average amount the house keeps from the wagers is around 20% for parlay bets. This compares quite favorably to the 5% kept by conventional individual outcome wagers.

What is a Parlay Bet?

A parlay bet is a type of sports bet where you combine two or more individual bets into one single all-or-nothing bet. The payout for a parlay bet is much higher than for a single bet, but the probability of winning is much lower.

For example, let’s say you want to bet on the following three NFL games:

The Dallas Cowboys to beat the New York Giants

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers to beat the Philadelphia Eagles

The Miami Dolphins to beat the New York Jets

You could place three separate bets on these games, but you would only win a small amount of money if all three bets won. Instead, you could place a parlay bet on all three games. If you win the parlay bet, you will win a much larger amount.

The payout for a parlay bet is calculated by multiplying the odds of each individual bet together. So, if the odds of the Cowboys winning are 1.50, the odds of the Buccaneers winning are 2.00, and the odds of the Dolphins winning are 1.75, the odds of the parlay bet winning would be 1.50 x 2.00 x 1.75 = 5.25.

This means that if you bet $100 on the parlay bet, you would win $525 if all three bets won.

Gambling companies emphasize that parlays are no gimmick. The odds aren’t skewed in the company’s favor or anything shifty; rather, parlays introduce higher odds against bettors due to the cumulative impact of various outcomes. Betting on multiple events, even up to 10, compounds the odds of each event’s success. This is how the casinos’ 4% to 5% edge evolves into a substantial 20%.

Margins are Better for Companies

The increase in earnings from these bets has helped lift stock values much higher than the overall market.

The growing popularity of parlay bets has also served to increase the appetite in the U.S. for sports betting. In 2018 a Supreme Court’s ruling opened the doors for sports gambling, leaving the decision to legalize it to individual states. Since then, 38 states and Washington, D.C. have legalized sports betting, with online betting approved in 24 of them. The operators amassed a gross revenue of $7.5 billion in 2022, as per the American Gaming Association, and numerous analysts speculate that further state legalization and innovative trends such as parlays could propel the market up to $30 billion or more.

The big two, DraftKings and Flutter/FanDuel dominate the market after spending heavily for years on advertising. Their state-of-the-art technology and popular parlays have helped increase market share. The companies are now veering away from over-the-top marketing, as evidenced by the 49% dip in TV ad spending by online sports betting firms in Q2, and DraftKings’ 10% reduction in marketing expenditures in established markets during the latest quarter.

Regardless of market dominance, parlays are poised to proliferate due to their popularity and profitability. While Las Vegas has long capitalized on the attractiveness of quick riches, the advent of online companies’ represents a distinct shift in the dynamics. Unlike casinos that can’t dramatically boost their own profitability in games like blackjack, the digital platforms can reach the masses electronically and digitally.

As mentioned, this surge in parlays resonates with the penchant for sudden riches, and can be witnessed far beyond Las Vegas. The recent Mega-Millions $1.55 billion prize had players lined up in the summer heat to pay for an almost impossible chance of winning. Platforms like Robinhood appealed to the high-risk high-return nature of many and amassed more brokerage customers in a year than any other company in history.

Parlays effectively tap into and profit handsomely off the mentality of all-or-nothing large gains. A mere $10 parlay could translate into thousands in winnings, mirroring the “got to be in it to win it” feeling of the lottery. But here, the bettor can feel more in control.

Take Away

The overall stock market performance is reported each trading day in popular indexes, but there are individual sectors that rise, or fall separately and at a different pace than each index. Index funds and ETF buyers are beginning to realize that a portion of their portfolio invested in industries and companies that are showing more strength than the S&P, Dow, or Nasdaq indexes may allow for enhanced performance. Many keep the largest allocation in an indexed fund or ETF to still maintain the diversification that prompted the indexed fund investment to begin with.

This December hundreds of investors will be attending NobleCon19 in order to discover actionable ideas they can invest in. The investment conference is the place where both professional and self-directed market participants go to become familiar with less mainstream companies and management. You’re invited – go here for all the information you will need to join us in Florida later this year.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.igb.illinois.gov/

https://www.barrons.com/articles/sports-betting-parlay-online-gaming-apps-25914b0f?mod=hp_columnists

Is the 2024 Social Security COLA level a Foregone Conclusion?

Posted on August 10, 2023August 10, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

It Seems Likely that Grandma and Grandpa are Getting a Much Smaller Raise Next Year

In 2023, Social Security recipients received the highest COLA in more than 40 years, 8.7%. At the same time, the entire U.S., including those retired, was impacted by the highest annual inflation in over 40 years. The result is the increased pay impacted recipients differently. Those with a higher percentage of variable costs or expenses, especially where inflation was worst, such as rent, travel, or fuel did not benefit as much, if at all. Those with a greater percentage of fixed costs may have found themselves with more money at the end of each month.

Consumers in the U.S., including Social Security recipients, have not had their purchasing power eroded as much during the first seven months of 2023, as they experienced in 2022. Social Security cost of living adjustments (COLA) are based on a formula that will cause the increase paid next year to rise almost by a third of what it rose at the beginning of 2023.

While not yet official, the new forecast comes after the release of July’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), and is largely based on little change over the next 45 days.

How is a COLA Calculated?

Ignore for a moment the inflation rate percentages you see in the news headlines. The 12-month CPI is calculated by using the set cost of a basket of goods during the month, divided into the cost of the same basket a year earlier. SSA COLA is calculated by the average price of the basket July, August, and September, and dividing it by the average of these months a year earlier. The CPI used in this case is not the CPI-U (all urban consumers) typically reported in the news, but instead, CPI-W (Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers). CPI-W is calculated on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The most recent release was August 10, 2023.

COLA increases are rounded to the nearest tenth. The adjusted benefit payments are effective as of the first month of the new year.

What to Expect

Social Security recipients could see a 3% bump up next year, based on July’s CPI data, and the current stagnation in the level of inflation. A 3% COLA would raise an average monthly benefit of $1,789 by $53.70 and the maximum benefit by $136.65 per month.

Retired Americans who find Social Security a nice addition to 401(k) or 403(B) investment returns or ample pensions may find themselves with a few extra dollars to take road trips or treat themselves to dining out, or gifts for grandchildren. But investors looking for industries that may benefit from the fatter checks older Americans will receive may find that there is little difference in spending for the majority.

In its recent survey of retirees, the Senior Citizens League found that more than 66% of those that completed its survey have postponed dental care, including major services such as bridges, dentures, and implants. Another 43% said they have delayed optical exams or getting prescription eyeglasses. Almost one-third of survey participants said they have postponed getting medical care or filling prescriptions due to deductibles, out-of-pocket costs, and unexpected bills.

Persistent high prices aren’t the only challenge. Findings from the survey suggest more than one in five Social Security beneficiaries (23%) report they paid tax on a portion of their benefits for the first time this past tax season.

Take Away

When economic numbers are released, they are of interest to a expansive variety of economic stakeholders. This includes investors determining how new statistics will impact corporate earnings, economists deciding how it could impact the Fed’s next move, equity analysts reviewing their industry and companies in the sector, the young couple looking to furnish a new home, and those past their working years that are in general more vulnerable.

The CPI number from July and those that will be reported for August and September will have a noticeable impact on the high percentage of elderly in the U.S. come January 2024.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/latestCOLA.html#:~:text=The%20Social%20Security%20Act%20specifies,the%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-security-payment-increase-cola-2024-retirement-a3fce38e

https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/colafacts2022.pdf

https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-security-payment-increase-cola-2024-retirement-a3fce38e

https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/colafacts2022.pdf