For more than 45 years, 1-800-Flowers.com has offered truly original floral arrangements, plants and unique gifts to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries, everyday occasions, and seasonal holidays, and to deliver comfort during times of grief. Backed by a caring team obsessed with service, 1-800-Flowers.com provides customers thoughtful ways to express themselves and connect with the most important people in their lives. 1-800-Flowers.com is part of the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. family of brands. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Updates it corporate presentation. Management recently updated its corporate presentation to provide more detail around the company’s four pillar initiative to transform it toward a more profitable, scalable, growth oriented company. The four key pillars: achieving cost savings and operational efficiency, strengthening customer focus, expanding reach beyond e-commerce, and enhancing talent alignment and accountability.
Omnichannel Expansion. The company is expanding distribution channels beyond its owned e-commerce platforms. The Company is meeting customers where they already shop by leveraging leading third-party marketplaces to lower acquisition friction and expand reach. These marketplace channels are intended to complement owned platforms, while selective physical retail testing will occur under strict ROI thresholds.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, February 26, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS)/MARKET PERFORM – Sets The Table For Investors Cardiff Oncology (CRDF)/OUTPERFORM – FY2025 Reported With Onvansertib Phase 2b Data Review E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Foundation for 2026 Upside Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 4Q and FY2025 Results Amid Sustained Strength in Containership Market Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Reports Fourth Quarter Results
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS/$3.34) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Sets The Table For Investors Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Updates it corporate presentation. Management recently updated its corporate presentation to provide more detail around the company’s four pillar initiative to transform it toward a more profitable, scalable, growth oriented company. The four key pillars: achieving cost savings and operational efficiency, strengthening customer focus, expanding reach beyond e-commerce, and enhancing talent alignment and accountability.
Omnichannel Expansion. The company is expanding distribution channels beyond its owned e-commerce platforms. The Company is meeting customers where they already shop by leveraging leading third-party marketplaces to lower acquisition friction and expand reach. These marketplace channels are intended to complement owned platforms, while selective physical retail testing will occur under strict ROI thresholds.
Cardiff Oncology (CRDF/$1.91 | Price Target: $12) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 FY2025 Reported With Onvansertib Phase 2b Data Review Rating: OUTPERFORM
FY2026 Reported With Onvansertib Review. Cardiff reported a FY2025 loss of $45.8 million or $(0.69) per share and reviewed the clinical data for onvansertib, its drug for RAS-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). Updated plans for Phase 3 are expected after discussions with the FDA during 1H26. On December 31, 2025, Cardiff ended the year with $58.3 million in cash and equivalents, which it believes can fund operations through 1Q27.
Phase 2 CRDF-004 Trial Design. The CDRF-004 Phase 2 trial was designed to test two doses of onvansertib in combination with two standard-of-care (SOC) regimens against each standard of care regimen alone. It enrolled 110 patients with RAS-mutated mCRC. The primary endpoint was objective response rate (ORR).
E.W. Scripps (SSP/$3.63 | Price Target: $10) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Foundation for 2026 Upside Rating: OUTPERFORM
Better than expected Q4. Total Q4 revenues of $560.3 million was better than our $550.9 million estimate, due to better than expected Core Local advertising and better Scripps Networks revenue. Adj. EBITDA of $86.4 million beat our $75.6 million estimate on lower segment expenses, particularly in its Networks segment.
Core advertising stronger than expected. Core Advertising revenue increased a strong 12.2% to $165.4 million, better than our estimate of $162.0 million. It is not surprising given the record amount of year earlier Political advertising that there would be a large level of Core Advertising displacement. But, we are pleased that Core Advertising reflected a strong rebound in the quarter, even better than what we were looking for.
Euroseas (ESEA/$62.99 | Price Target: $85) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Solid 4Q and FY2025 Results Amid Sustained Strength in Containership Market Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q4 and FY2025 financial results. Fourth quarter net revenue increased 7.7% to $57.4 million compared to $53.3 million during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA and EPS were $40.7 million and $4.48, respectively, compared to $32.8 million and $3.33 during the prior year quarter. During the fourth quarter, the average time charter equivalent rate amounted to $30,268 per day compared to $26,479 during the prior year period. The company reported FY2025 adjusted EBITDA and EPS of $155.9 million and $16.74, respectively, compared to $135.8 million and $14.87 in 2024.
Revenue and earnings visibility. For 2026, Euroseas has secured 86.6% of available voyage days at an average rate of ~$30,700 per day and 71.1% of 2027 available voyage days at an average rate of $31,890 per day. For 2028, 40.8% of available voyage days are covered at ~$32,400 per day. This robust charter coverage not only underpins earnings but also provides a strong buffer against rate volatility, positioning the company to benefit from sustained high utilization in 2026.
Overview. Kratos finished 2025 exceeding management’s financial objectives for the fourth quarter, generating approximately 20% year- over-year organic revenue growth, generating a 1.3 to 1.0 book-to-bill ratio on top of the organic growth, having a record backlog of $1.573 billion, and a record opportunity pipeline of $13.7 billion.
4Q25 Results. Fourth quarter revenue of $345.1 million reflected 20% y-o-y organic growth and exceeded our $320 million estimate. Unmanned Systems’ organic revenue growth was 12.1%, while Government Solutions saw 22.2% organic growth. Kratos recorded adjusted EBITDA of $34.1 million, up from $25.2 million a year ago and our $31 million estimate. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.18 versus $0.13 last year and our $0.14 estimate.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – CAD-1005 Phase 2 Results Announced, With FDA Guidance Meeting Scheduled InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – 2026 Guidance Points to Disciplined Growth and Continued Deleveraging Perfect (PERF)/OUTPERFORM – Revenue Growth Story Intact V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – A Strong End to the Year
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$7.79 | Price Target: $45) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 CAD-1005 Phase 2 Results Announced, With FDA Guidance Meeting Scheduled Rating: OUTPERFORM
Cadrenal Announced Phase 2 Data With End-of-Phase-2 Meeting Scheduled. Cadrenal announced data from the Phase 2 trial of its anti-thrombotic CAD-1005 (formerly known as VLX-1005) for HIT, or heparin-induced thrombocytopenia. Cadrenal has also been granted an End-of-Phase 2 meeting with the FDA to discuss the trial results and design of a Phase 3 trial. These are important milestones in the development of CAD-1005.
Phase 2 Produced Unexpected Findings. The Phase 2 trial tested safety and efficacy of CAD-1005 in patients receiving standard anticoagulant therapy. Its Primary Endpoint was designed to show CAD-1005 improved platelet recovery, testing platelet count recovery as a biomarker for thrombosis and outcome. This Primary Endpoint did not meet statistical significance, and did not find a correlation between platelet count normalization and thrombotic events.
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$11.47 | Price Target: $15.75) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | 2026 Guidance Points to Disciplined Growth and Continued Deleveraging Rating: OUTPERFORM
2026 guidance. InPlay approved a C$66 to C$74 million capital program targeting average production of 18,600 to 19,200 boe/d (~61% light oil and NGLs), representing approximately 11% growth over the estimated 2025 production of ~17,000 boe/d. Management forecasts adjusted funds flow (AFF) of C$122 to C$129 million and free adjusted funds flow (FAFF) of C$48 to C$63 million, implying an 11% to 15% FAFF yield. Year-end net debt is guided to C$199 to C$206 million, reflecting continued deleveraging.
Estimate revisions. We have adjusted our 2026 estimates to average production of 18,900 boe/d, revenue of C$338.3 million, and AFF of C$125.2 million, or C$4.45 per share. For Q1 2026, we have assumed production of 18,605 boe/d, revenue of C$79.0 million, and AFF of C$26.6 million, or C$0.95 per share. The first quarter carries heavier drilling activity, with five wells drilled and completed, most coming onstream late in the period, marking Q1 as the lightest production quarter of the year. We forecast 2026 capital expenditures of C$70 million.
Perfect (PERF/$1.3 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Revenue Growth Story Intact Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q4 results. Perfect reported Q4 revenue of $18.1 million, up 14.2% Y/Y and largely in line with our estimate of $18.2 million, while adj. EBITDA of $1.4 million exceeded our forecast of $1.0 million, representing 8% margins. Excluding a one-time goodwill write-off, the company would have generated operating income, underscoring improving cost discipline and operating leverage.
B2C momentum the primary growth driver. Management noted that strong demand for AI-powered content creation is driving engagement across the YouCam app portfolio. Generative AI photo and video tools remain key contributors, and we believe Perfect’s expertise with these technologies positions it well to benefit from sustained demand for personalized, AI-enabled digital experiences.
V2X (VVX/$70 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A Strong End to the Year Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. In the fourth quarter, V2X drove record quarterly revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted cash flow. These results reflect the strength of the Company’s strategy and alignment with national security priorities for readiness and modernization. V2X continues to see momentum across the business coming through contract wins in key growth areas, and we are encouraged by the ongoing demand for the Company’s mission solutions.
4Q25 Results. Revenue increased 5% y-o-y to a record $1.22 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $88.7 million for the quarter, also a record for the Company. and exceeding management’s expectations. Adjusted net income was $49.3 million and adjusted EPS was $1.56, both representing double-digit year-over-year growth. We were at $1.19 billion, $81 million, and $1.33, respectively.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, February 24, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Reverse Stock Split Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Updated Angel Island Feasibility Study Highlights Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/MARKET PERFORM – Going Out On Top SEGG Media Corporation (SEGG)/OUTPERFORM – Strengthens Its Portfolio
BTM 1-for-7 reverse stock split. On February 23, 2026, the company’s Class A common stock began trading on a split-adjusted basis on Nasdaq. The action had been previously authorized by shareholders and approved by the Board and did not reflect any change in operating performance or strategy.
No alteration to economic ownership or fundamentals. Every seven shares outstanding were consolidated into one share, with fractional shares cashed out based on the pre-split VWAP. Authorized shares and par value remained unchanged, while public warrants, equity awards, and other convertible securities were adjusted proportionally, including a mechanical increase in the BTMWW warrant exercise price.
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.44 | Price Target: $2.35) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Updated Angel Island Feasibility Study Highlights Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updated feasibility study. Century released the results of its 2026 NI 43-101 feasibility study for the 100%-owned Angel Island Lithium Project in Esmeralda County, Nevada. The updated study reflects engineering optimization and improvements that materially strengthen the project’s economic profile and highlight Angel Island as one of the most significant and economically robust sedimentary lithium developments in the United States.
Lower initial capital expenditures. Phase I initial capital expenditures are estimated to be $997 million, a significant reduction from the $1.5 billion outlined in the 2024 Study. The updated study streamlines development into a two-phase approach. Phase I contemplates 7,500 tonnes per day (tpd) of mill feed, expanding to 15,000 tpd in Phase II beginning in Year 5. Phase II expansion capital is estimated at $660 million. A previously planned third expansion phase has been eliminated, lowering overall capital requirements. The economic analysis is based on a 40-year production schedule, with planned life-of-mine average production of 26,500 tonnes per annum of battery-grade lithium carbonate.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$16.87) Joe Gomes jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Going Out On Top Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Overview. Great Lakes reported solid 4Q25 results in its likely last quarter as a public company. A full quarter of work from the Amelia Islandand higher capital and offshore energy revenue drove the results. Offshore energy revenue rose to $24.1 million in the quarter, up from $6.1 million in 3Q25. Higher costs associated with the pending merger and increased incentive compensation impacted operating income, which rose to $32.6 million from $30 million in 4Q24.
4Q25 Results. Revenue was $256.5 million, up from $202.8 million in 4Q24 and above our $220.5 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $44 million compared to $40.2 million last year and in-line with our $44.5 million estimate. Adjusted net income was $20.7 million, or $0.30/sh, compared to $19.7 million, or $0.29/sh, last year.
SEGG Media Corporation (SEGG/$1.12 | Price Target: $15.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Strengthens Its Portfolio Rating: OUTPERFORM
Increases its stake in Veloce Media Group. SEGG Media increases its stake from 12.4% to over 51% in Veloce Media Group, a UK-based digital media and gaming company focused on esports, gaming content, and motorsport entertainment, valuing the company at $61 million. Veloce current management is expected to manage the business and the company has nominated Daniel Bailey, co-founder and CEO of Veloce, to the SEGG board.
Could own up to 75%. The purchase was for cash and stock, with the vast majority for stock. The company issued 2.52 million shares in the transaction, valuing the SEGG shares at $10 per share. SEGG extended the offer for a portion of the remaining interest in Veloce it does not own, and, as such, SEGG may control a larger percentage once the transaction is completed within the next few weeks.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, February 23, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
EuroDry (EDRY)/OUTPERFORM – Finishing 2025 Strong; Building Momentum into 2026 Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – An Acquisition, Awards, and More
EuroDry (EDRY/$18.5 | Price Target: $29) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Finishing 2025 Strong; Building Momentum into 2026 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth quarter and full year results. EuroDry reported fourth-quarter net revenues of $17.4 million, exceeding our estimate of $16.5 million, driven by a stronger average TCE rate of $16,262 per day versus our $15,900 estimate and lighter drydocking of 13.7 days against our 22-day assumption. Adjusted EBITDA of $7.5 million and adjusted EPS of $0.88 came in ahead of our estimates of $6.7 million and $0.78, respectively. For the full year, net revenues of $52.3 million, adjusted EBITDA of $12.5 million, and an adjusted net loss of $2.50 per share all modestly surpassed our estimates of $51.4 million, $11.7 million, and a loss of $2.57.
Market update. Dry-bulk fundamentals strengthened in the fourth quarter, with average TCE rates rising to the highest levels in approximately two years. The global order book remains near historically low levels, at approximately 13.4% of the existing fleet, providing structural support. Near-term demand tailwinds include growing bauxite trade from West Africa, continued grain flows following the U.S.–China trade truce, and longer voyage distances due to Red Sea disruptions, though geopolitical uncertainty and tariff-related volatility remain risks.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$96.08 | Price Target: $145) Joe Gomes jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 An Acquisition, Awards, and More Rating: OUTPERFORM
Acquisition. In a 424B3 filing, Kratos disclosed that it acquired Nomad Global Communication Solutions, Incorporated, for an initial amount of 972,136 KTOS shares or approximately $100 million. Nomad provides mobile command, control, and communications systems for space and satellite systems, UAVs, counter UAVs, and other systems, with clients including all branches of the U.S. armed forces, Homeland Security, and other Agencies, among others. We expect management to provide additional detail and color on the earnings call.
Drone Dominance. Kratos has been selected to participate in the initial Phase 1 Gauntlet for the Office of the Secretary of War’s Drone Dominance Program. This opportunity seeks to identify and evaluate platforms capable of demonstrating multiple one-way attack missions through a live competition. Upon successful completion of the Gauntlet, participants will be ranked and extended a prototype delivery award based on their performance and placement. The Drone Dominance Program represents a $1.1 billion investment in groundbreaking unmanned systems technologies. The program aims to procure approximately 350,000 units.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, February 20, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cocrystal Pharma (COCP)/OUTPERFORM – CDI-988 Norovirus Phase 1 Data to be Presented at ICAR 2026 Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – Near Term Revenue Growth Throttles Back
Cocrystal Pharma (COCP/$0.98 | Price Target: $6) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 CDI-988 Norovirus Phase 1 Data to be Presented at ICAR 2026 Rating: OUTPERFORM
CDI-988 Data Selected For Presentation At ICAR. Cocrystal announced that it has been selected to present data from its Phase 1 clinical trial and updates from the ongoing Phase 1b challenge study testing CDI-988 against norovirus infection at the 38th International Conference on Antiviral Research, to be held April 27 to May 1 in Prague, Czech Republic. We see the presentation at this important conference as recognition of the potential of CDI-988 for an indication that has serious medical and economic consequences.
Phase 1 and 1b Data Expected. We expect Dr. Sam Lee, President and Co-CEO, to present initial Phase 1 safety and tolerability data. Previously announced data from the single ascending dose (SAD) and multiple ascending dose (MAD) study showed safety and tolerability across all dose cohorts tested. Additional data from the ongoing Phase 1b norovirus challenge study testing CDI-988 as both a prophylactic and therapeutic may also be included.
Travelzoo (TZOO/$5.05 | Price Target: $20) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Near Term Revenue Growth Throttles Back Rating: OUTPERFORM
Softer than expected Q4 Results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $22.5 million, an increase of 9%, and adj. EBITDA of $1.0 million, both of which were below our estimates of $23.0 million and $3.3 million, respectively. Importantly, the modestly softer than expected results were largely driven by weakness in advertising and commerce revenue. Increased marketing spend and elevated G&A expenses due to a non-recurring corporate event adversely affected EBITDA.
Customer acquisition efficiency. Customer acquisition costs averaged $34 per member in Q4, compared to $28 in Q1, $38 in Q2, and $40 in Q3, reflecting continued investment in subscriber growth. Management highlighted rapid payback economics, with annual membership fees collected upfront and supplemented by transaction revenue. Acquisition costs are expensed immediately, impacting near-term profitability, though the strategy is intended to expand recurring revenue and strengthen the advertising platform over time.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, February 19, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
NeuroSense Therapeutics Ltd. (NRSN)/OUTPERFORM – Post-Phase 2b Analysis Demonstrates Survival Benefit and Mortality Risk Reduction Power Metallic Mines Inc. (PNPNF)/OUTPERFORM – Recent Assay Results and Observations from the Summer-Fall 2025 Drilling Program
PrimeC Demonstrates Survival Benefit and 65% Mortality Risk Reduction. NeuroSense announced a Post-Phase 2b Analysis of its trial testing PrimeC in ALS. New data shows PrimeC patients had an additional 14 months (about 70%) survival with 65% reduction in risk of death. These improvements in overall survival correlate with previous Phase 2b Paradigm data that showed improvements in several endpoints of function, biomarkers, and survival.
New Data Shows Continued Improvement In Survival. The newly released data show the PrimeC treated patients had a median survival benefit of 36.3 months compared with 21.4 months for the group that received placebo then PrimeC during the extension study. This improvement of about 14.9 months was a benefit of 70% in survival. The Hazard Ratio (HR, the probability of an event occurring) reduced risk of death by 65% (p=0.0037).
Power Metallic Mines Inc. (PNPNF/$0.96 | Price Target: $2.65) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Recent Assay Results and Observations from the Summer-Fall 2025 Drilling Program Rating: OUTPERFORM
Expanding the High-Grade Core at Lion. Summer-Fall 2025 drilling successfully extended high-grade mineralization down plunge at the Lion Zone, with impressive intercepts including 8.40 meters grading 8.05% copper equivalent recovered, and 5.10 meters grading 9.86% copper equivalent recovered, reinforcing strong vertical continuity.
Precious Metals Significantly Enhance Value. Assays revealed substantial palladium, platinum, and gold contributions, materially boosting copper-equivalent grades and highlighting the robust polymetallic nature of the deposit.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Strong 2025 Finish; Favorable 2026 Outlook
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$12.66 | Price Target: $20) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Strong 2025 Finish; Favorable 2026 Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q4’25 financial results. Seanergy reported Q4 net revenues of $49.4 million and adjusted EBITDA of $28.9 million, exceeding our estimates of $48.3 million and $28.2 million, respectively. Adjusted net income and adjusted EPS were $14.2 million and $0.68, ahead of our $11.7 million and $0.56 estimates. The stronger than expected earnings were due to a higher average time charter equivalent (TCE) rate of $26,614 per day versus our $26,000 estimate.
Favorable Capesize market. The Capesize market is supported by favorable supply and demand fundamentals. The global orderbook stands at roughly 12% of the fleet, while approximately 40% of Capesize, Newcastlemax, and VLOC vessels are over 15 years old, with special surveys expected to reduce effective supply by 1.5% to 2.5% annually. Additionally, Brazilian iron ore exports and West African bauxite shipments continue to expand, with Simandou expected to add incremental long-haul volumes in 2026 and 2027. In our view, this combination of structural supply constraints and steady commodity trade flows supports a constructive rate environment throughout 2026.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, February 17, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Estimates; Raising PT to $160 Per Share Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – Major Shareholder Appointed to Board Conduent (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – New CEO Unveils Action Plan CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – A Strong End to the Year Kelly Services (KELYA)/OUTPERFORM – Reports 4Q25 Results The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 4Q25 Results
AZZ (AZZ/$140.24 | Price Target: $160) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Updating Estimates; Raising PT to $160 Per Share Rating: OUTPERFORM
FY27 Corporate Guidance. AZZ recently provided financial guidance for FY27 ending on February 28, 2027. Sales are expected to be in the range of $1.725 to $1.775 billion, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $360.0 to $400.0 million, and adjusted diluted EPS is expected to be in the range of $6.50 to $7.00.
Updating Estimates. We have adjusted our FY27 sales, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS to $1.750 billion, $386.0 million, and $6.70, respectively, from $1.746 billion, $388.0 million, and $6.60. We have also adjusted our forward estimates through 2031, which are included in the financial model at the end of this report. Our FY27 estimates reflect modestly higher sales growth and lower interest expense of $40.0 million compared to our prior estimate of $43.4 million. Our FY26 estimates remain within the company’s corporate guidance ranges.
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$1.67 | Price Target: $4) Joe Gomes jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Major Shareholder Appointed to Board Rating: OUTPERFORM
On The Board. Commercial Vehicle Group has added Ari Levy of Lakeview Investment Group as an independent director. Lakeview owns approximately 8.9% of the outstanding shares of the Company. In connection with Mr. Levy’s appointment, the Board was expanded to 7 members. Mr. Levy will serve on the Board’s Nominating, Governance and Sustainability, and Audit Committees.
Ari Levy. Mr. Levy is the founder, President, and Chief Investment Officer of Lakeview, a Chicago based investment manager focused on the public markets. Mr. Levy was the President of Levy Acquisition Corp, a NASDAQ listed acquisition vehicle, and subsequently served on the Board of the resulting public company, Del Taco, until it was acquired by Jack in the Box in early 2022.
Conduent (CNDT/$1.54 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 New CEO Unveils Action Plan Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q4 results. Q4 revenue of $770 million was modestly below our estimate of $778 million, driven by ongoing softness in the Commercial segment, while adj. EBITDA of $50 million exceeded our estimate of $41 million as cost performance improved, resulting in a 6.5% adj. EBITDA margin.
New CEO outlines action plan. CEO Harsha V. Agadi outlined a framework centered on faster decision-making, reduced organizational complexity, and a “fix, sell, or grow” review of every business unit, with emphasis on financial discipline, cost reduction, and converting the pipeline into sustainable organic revenue and EBITDA growth.
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$18.92 | Price Target: $28) Joe Gomes jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A Strong End to the Year Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. CoreCivic reported a strong 4Q25, with management revenue from U.S. Immigration & Customs Enforcement (ICE), CXW’s largest government partner, more than doubling from the fourth quarter of 2024. Revenue from state customers increased 5.0% y-o-y. CoreCivic’s balance sheet remains strong, ending the quarter with leverage, measured as net debt to adjusted EBITDA, at 2.8x for the trailing twelve months.
4Q25 Results. Revenue was $603.9 million, up from $479.3 million in 4Q24 and our $595.8 million estimate, driven by higher populations. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $92.5 million, compared to $74.2 million last year and our $80.9 million projection. Adjusted EPS was $0.27 versus $0.16 last year.
Kelly Services (KELYA/$9.79 | Price Target: $17) Joe Gomes jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Reports 4Q25 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. Kelly’s fourth quarter continued to be impacted by many of the same trends evident in previous quarters, most notably discrete impacts associated with reduced demand for U.S. federal government contractors and from three large commercial customers. Employers continue to take a cautious approach to hiring amid a mixed labor market. However, the Company was able to capitalize on positive trends in each of the segments.
4Q25 Results. Revenue was $1.05 billion, down 11.9% y-o-y, but down only 3.9% excluding the discrete impacts associated with reduced demand for U.S. federal government contractors and from three large commercial customers. Gross margin declined 150 bps to 18.8%. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $12 million, or a 2.0% margin, compared to $43.5 million, or 3.7% margin, last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.16 versus $0.79 in 4Q24.
The GEO Group (GEO/$14.21 | Price Target: $28) Joe Gomes jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Solid 4Q25 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. The GEO Group reported solid fourth quarter operating results. The census across the Company’s active ICE facilities have continued to steadily increase from the third quarter at approximately 22,000 to presently approximately 24,000, which is the highest level of ICE populations in the Company’s history. Mix change in the ISAP program could lead to higher revenue, even with relatively stable populations.
4Q25 Results. Revenue of $707.7 million was above our $665 million estimate and is up 16.5% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2025 was approximately $126 million, up from approximately $108 million reported for the prior year’s fourth quarter. We were at $120 million. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.25 compared to $0.13 in 4Q24.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, February 13, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT)/OUTPERFORM – A Disappointing Quarter, But Profitability and Margin Execution Was Strong Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT/$6.38 | Price Target: $9) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 A Disappointing Quarter, But Profitability and Margin Execution Was Strong Rating: OUTPERFORM
Softer than expected revenue and adj. EBITDA. Fiscal Q2 revenue of $369.0 million was below our $402.1 million estimate and down from $394.0 million a year earlier. The largest revenue variance appeared to be attributable to the lack of arcade inventory in its gaming division due to the bankruptcy of one of its vendors. Adj. EBITDA of $18.1 million was below our $25.3 million estimate, as a result of higher than expected costs in its licensing business.
Maintains strong margin dynamics. The company maintained strong gross margins at 12.8%, a 210 basis point improvement year over year, but down from our 16.2% estimate. The gross margin was surprisingly solid when considering the significant revenue shortfall. Margins benefited from favorable product mix, structural improvement and cost discipline. In addition, adj. EBITDA margins improved year over year as well (5.0% vs 4.1%).
Noble Virtual Conference. On February 4th, Heidy Chow, CFO, and Peter Lin, Senior Manager FP&A, presented at the Noble Virtual Conference to the investment community. The presentation highlighted strong engagement on its core franchise and recent releases, a busy 2026 release roadmap, and the advancement of its digital assets strategy. The full presentation is available here.
Strong ARK Engagement. The ARK franchise remains a key driver of engagement and monetization for the company, generating nearly $1 billion in revenue, more than 100 million installs, and 4.2 billion gameplay hours since its release. Management noted that the ARK franchise benefits from a highly active core audience, with 42% of players averaging 380 hours of total gameplay. Furthermore, management noted a 55% paid downloadable content (DLC) conversion rate for ARK, with new content releases driving spikes in player activity.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, February 12, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Enterprise Transformation Plan EuroDry (EDRY)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing 2026 Estimates; Upgrading Rating to Outperform Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Tight Feeder Market Supports Rate Upside; Coverage Strengthens Through 2028 Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/MARKET PERFORM – Going Private At All-Time High InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Updating 2025 Estimates; Bond Offering Completed
E.W. Scripps (SSP/$3.64 | Price Target: $10) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Enterprise Transformation Plan Rating: OUTPERFORM
Transformation plan announced. E.W. Scripps launched an enterprise-wide restructuring targeting $125 million to $150 million of incremental annualized EBITDA by 2028, driven by structural cost actions and revenue yield initiatives leveraging AI, automation, and operational realignment. Management emphasized a shift toward a leaner, startup-like operating model while reaffirming investment in journalism and sales capabilities, setting the framework for detailed execution priorities discussed below.
Execution framework. The company identified major cost buckets across administrative functions, technology consolidation, and process redesign, with modeling work underway to refine savings cadence. Management expects months of operational review before final staffing decisions, maintaining a baseline EBITDA framework near $450 million even under softer demand conditions. Beyond expense controls, leadership highlighted opportunities to improve monetization, which informs the evolving growth strategy outlined next.
EuroDry (EDRY/$14.32 | Price Target: $23.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Increasing 2026 Estimates; Upgrading Rating to Outperform Rating: OUTPERFORM
Increasing FY 2026 estimates. We have increased our FY 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS estimates to $60.8 million, $25.5 million, and $2.82, respectively, from $57.3 million, $22.4 million, and $1.46. The upward revisions are driven by higher expected vessel earnings, with our forecast average TCE rate rising to $14,743 from $13,873 previously.
Eurodry’s sweet spot. Eurodry owns and operates vessels in the middle of the size range of dry bulk carriers, or 50,000 to 85,000 dead weight tons (dwt), which present the most flexible employment opportunities. EDRY’s fleet consists of 11 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 766,420 dwt. With two Ultramax vessels of 63,500 dwt each under construction and scheduled for delivery in the second and third quarters of 2027, the total carrying capacity will increase to 893,000 dwt. Growth will be driven by the charter rate environment, coupled with fleet growth. While EDRY continues to renew and modernize its fleet, it expects to acquire and consolidate smaller owners.
Euroseas (ESEA/$57.46 | Price Target: $72) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Tight Feeder Market Supports Rate Upside; Coverage Strengthens Through 2028 Rating: OUTPERFORM
New time charter for the EM Spetses. Euroseas Ltd. announced a new time charter for its 1,740 twenty-foot equivalent feeder containership, EM Spetses, for a minimum period of 22 to a maximum period of 24 months, at the option of the charterer, at a gross daily rate of $21,500. The new charter will commence on April 12, 2026, in direct continuation of its present charter, and represents a daily increase of over $3,000 compared to the vessel’s current rate.
Incremental EBITDA with Expanded Coverage. The charter is expected to generate approximately $8.9 million in EBITDA over the minimum term and increase Euroseas’ charter coverage to approximately 87% in 2026, 71% in 2027, and 41% in 2028. The higher rate on the new time charter reflects a tight container market with limited vessel availability. Demand in the feeder segment remains strong as operators secure vessels to meet their requirements.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$16.95) Joe Gomes jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Going Private At All-Time High Rating: MARKET PERFORM
To Be Acquired. Yesterday, Great Lakes announced a definitive agreement for Saltchuk Resources, Inc. to acquire Great Lakes for $17 per share, in cash, an aggregate equity value of $1.2 billion, and a total transaction value of $1.5 billion. The $17 per share consideration is in line with our $17 price target on GLDD shares. The per share purchase price represents a 25% premium to Great Lakes’s 90-day volume-weighted average price as of February 10, 2026, as well as a 5% premium to the Company’s all-time high closing price.
A Surprise. We are somewhat surprised by the timing as Great Lakes has substantially completed its new build program and should begin to generate substantial amounts of free cash flow that could be used to repay outstanding debt, repurchase shares, or grow the business. Nonetheless, shareholders are receiving a premium to the shares’ all-time high closing price.
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$11.4 | Price Target: $15.75) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Updating 2025 Estimates; Bond Offering Completed Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q4 2025 Estimate Revisions. We are adjusting Q4 estimates to reflect softer commodity pricing, with WTI averaging $59.10 per barrel versus our prior $60.00 estimate and wider differentials reducing realized Canadian pricing. We are lowering our revenue, adjusted funds flow (AFF), and AFF per share estimates to C$80.7 million, C$29.1 million, and C$1.04, respectively, from C$88.8 million, C$35.8 million, and C$1.28. Our production estimate remains unchanged at 19,419 boe/d.
FY 2025 Estimate Revisions. We are modestly lowering our full-year revenue, AFF, and AFF per share estimates to reflect lower fourth-quarter estimates. We now forecast revenue of C$290.6 million, AFF of C$112.9 million, and AFF per share of C$4.58, down from C$298.7 million, C$119.5 million, and C$4.85, respectively. Our outlook continues to assume average 2025 production of approximately 17,000 boe/d. We will update our 2026 estimates following the release of InPlay’s 2026 guidance.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, February 11, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – A Growing Portfolio of Precious Metals and Critical Mineral Projects DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – First Quarter 2026 Results Townsquare Media (TSQ)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.11 | Price Target: $0.3) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | A Growing Portfolio of Precious Metals and Critical Mineral Projects Rating: OUTPERFORM
Advancing a multi-project portfolio. Auraniais advancing two projects in France: a gold exploration project in Brittany and a nickel recovery project in Corsica. Aurania is also evaluating the recovery of nickel and cobalt from the waste tailings of the former Balangero asbestos mine near Turin, Italy. The projects in Corsica and Italy offer significant environmental benefits for the nearby communities, along with the economic benefit of recovering valuable critical metals. In Ecuador, the company is having productive discussions with government officials to advance its project while pursuing potential strategic partnerships.
Exploration Licenses in Brittany. Aurania, through a wholly owned French subsidiary, was granted three exploration licenses for polymetallic metals, including gold, in the Brittany Peninsula of northwestern France. The three license areas, Epona, Taranis, and Belenos, are in southern Brittany and northern Pays de la Loire in France. Aurania is in the process of identifying all the landowners to seek their support for exploration.
DLH Holdings (DLHC/$5.56 | Price Target: $10) Joe Gomes jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 First Quarter 2026 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q26 Results. DLH reported revenue of $68.9 million, down from $90.8 million y-o-y, and modestly below our $70.1 million projection. The decline reflects the loss of certain programs to small business set-aside contractors. Adjusted EBITDA was $6.5 million versus our $6.2 million estimate. Net loss was $1.3 million, or a loss of $0.09/sh, versus our estimate of a loss of $1 million, or a loss of 0.07/sh.
Cost Scaling Initiatives. With the loss of the Head Start program and winding down of the CMOP contracts in 2026, DLH undertook some cost reduction measures in the first and second fiscal quarters to align expenses with current revenue volumes. We expect management to closely watch expenses until top line improvement returns.
Townsquare Media (TSQ/$7.18 | Price Target: $15) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Rating: OUTPERFORM
Noble Virtual Conference. On February 4th, Bill Wilson, CEO, Stu Rosenstein, co-founder and CFO, and Claire Yenicay, EVP of IR, participated in a fireside chat at the Noble Virtual Conference. The discussion focused on the company’s successful evolution into a digital-first local media powerhouse, sustainable financial model and improving revenue trends. A replay of the presentation can be found here.
Favorable Digital Advertising Outlook. Digital advertising trends are stabilizing, with management noting sequential page view growth from December to January, which is expected to continue in February. While remnant inventory remains a near-term headwind, underlying growth in owned-and-operated sales and core programmatic activity remains strong. Management expects digital advertising to return to mid-single-digit growth in 2026, with a high-single-digit CAGR anticipated over the next five years.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, February 10, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
The Beachbody Company (BODI)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
The Beachbody Company (BODI/$9.99 | Price Target: $15) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Rating: OUTPERFORM
Noble Virtual Conference. On February 5th, the company presented at the Noble Virtual conference. The presentation conducted by Carl Daikeler, Co-founder and CEO, Mark Goldston, Executive Chairman, and Brad Ramberg, CFO, highlighted the completion of a multi-year operational turnaround and favorable growth drivers in its digital fitness and nutrition businesses. A replay of the presentation can be viewed here.
Operational turnaround. Over the past several years, the company has significantly lowered its break-even point from $900 million in 2022 to roughly $180 million today, driven largely by SG&A optimization and the elimination of multi-level marketing sales costs. The new model offers enhanced operating leverage, enabling profitability at lower revenue levels and improving the long term outlook of the company.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, February 9, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – January Ethereum Metrics Graham (GHM)/MARKET PERFORM – FY3Q26 Results Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Estimates; Raising PT to $17 Titan International (TWI)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Bit Digital (BTBT/$1.8 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 January Ethereum Metrics Rating: OUTPERFORM
Data. Bit Digital reported its monthly Ethereum (“ETH”) treasury and staking metrics for the month of January 2026. As of month end, the Company held approximately 155,239 ETH versus 155,227 ETH at the end of December. Included in the ETH holdings were approximately 15,236 ETH and ETH-equivalents held in an externally managed fund. The Company’s total staked ETH was approximately 138,266, or about 89% of its total holdings as of January 31st.
Yield and Value. Staking operations generated approximately 344 ETH in rewards during the period, representing an annualized yield of approximately 2.9%. Based on a closing ETH price of $2,449, as of January 31, 2026, the market value of the Company’s ETH holdings was approximately $380.2 million.
Graham (GHM/$83.24) Joe Gomes jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 FY3Q26 Results Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Overview. For 3Q26, Graham delivered another strong quarter, with results supported by the timing of key project milestones, particularly within the defense business, along with contributions from new programs and continued growth across existing platforms.
3Q26 Results. Revenue increased 21% to $56.7 million, driven by solid performance across end markets. We were at $52.5 million. GM of 23.8% was below our 26.7% projections due to mix. Adjusted EBITDA increased 50% to $6 million with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 10.7%. We had forecast $5.8 million. GHM reported adjusted net income of $3.5 million, or $0.31/sh, compared to our estimates of $3.0 million and $0..27/sh.
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$10.67 | Price Target: $17) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Increasing Estimates; Raising PT to $17 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Increasing Q4 and FY 2025 estimates. We have increased our FY 2025 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates to $157.0 million, $81.0 million, and $1.14, respectively, from $153.2 million, $77.9 million, and $1.07. Our full year estimates reflect higher fourth quarter revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS of $48.3 million, $28.2 million, and $0.56, respectively, compared to our previous estimates of $44.5 million, $25.0 million, and $0.49. We are now forecasting fourth quarter and full year average time charter equivalent rates of $26,000 per day and $20,672 per day, versus prior forecasts of $23,900 and $20,147. We forecast fourth quarter and full year operating days of 1,800 and 7,163, respectively, compared to our prior estimates of 1,780 and 7,143.
Raising FY 2026 estimates. We have also increased our FY 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA estimates to $176.2 million, $96.7 million, and $1.70, respectively, from $165.2 million, $89.1 million, and $1.44. We now forecast an average TCE rate of $24,063 compared to our previous estimate of $22,238.
Leadership Changes. In early December, Titan announced CFO David Martin transitioned into a new role as Chief Transformation Officer, while Tony Eheli, former Chief Accounting Officer, was named CFO. In the new CTO role, Mr. Martin will oversee the critical alignment of information technology, including the acceleration of AI adoption, along with human capital and risk management functions and initiatives.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, February 6, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – InPlay Broadens Capital Access with Israeli Bond Issuance SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Solid Fiscal Q2 Execution but Carrier Pullback Creates Near-Term Pressure The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Thoughts on Current Environment
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$10.97 | Price Target: $15.75) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | InPlay Broadens Capital Access with Israeli Bond Issuance Rating: OUTPERFORM
Bond offering details. InPlay announced a senior unsecured bond issuance in Israel for up to 550 million New Israeli Shekels (NIS), or approximately C$241 million. Three amortization payments of 6% of the principal amount of the bonds will be due on December 15 of 2027, 2028, and 2029, and the fourth and last amortization payment of the remaining 82% will be due on December 15, 2030. The offering is expected to close on or around February 12, 2026, subject to certain conditions.
Expanding capital market access. Beyond the financing itself, we view the transaction as a strategic expansion of InPlay’s funding base outside of Canada. InPlay received interest from over 40 institutional investors in the oversubscribed offering and, to date, has accepted tenders for NIS 550 million of the bonds. The transaction further strengthens InPlay’s diversified financing sources while reducing its overall cost of capital.
SelectQuote (SLQT/$1.03 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Solid Fiscal Q2 Execution but Carrier Pullback Creates Near-Term Pressure Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fiscal Q2 results. SelectQuote reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $537.1 million, above our $520.0 million estimate, driven by stronger-than-expected Senior performance. Adj. EBITDA of $84.7 million exceeded our $82.0 million forecast, reflecting near-record 39% adj. EBITDA margins in Senior that more than offset pharmacy reimbursement pressure.
Medicare Advantage headwinds. Management cited pressure from a large national carrier’s decision to reduce strategic marketing spend across all channels. We believe this reflects a deliberate effort to moderate enrollment growth and protect plan profitability following above-trend member additions, rather than any deterioration in underlying demand.
The GEO Group (GEO/$15.48 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Thoughts on Current Environment Rating: OUTPERFORM
Environment. The current operating environment remains charged, as evidenced by the daily news. Nonetheless, we would point out that a key platform of the Trump Administration remains illegal immigration, and we do not expect that to change. Funding remains available under The One Big Beautiful Bill. And, historically, enforcement operations remain ongoing even in the face of a government shutdown.
Less New Awards Than Anticipated. The pace of new awards has been less than we had expected over the past few months. Whether this is just a temporary pause due to the significant number of new awards in 2025, the most recent new contract for GEO was the December skip tracing services contract worth up to $121 million of revenue over a two year period.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, February 5, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – Event Business Turns A Corner
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$7.33 | Price Target: $14.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Event Business Turns A Corner Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 Results. The company reported revenue of $306.9 million, largely in line with our estimate of $310.0 million, while adj. EBITDA of $77.5 million, missed our estimate of $97.3 million by roughly 20%. Notably, the quarter was driven by increased investment, largely related to marketing, which supported top-line results while pressuring adj. EBITDA in the quarter.
Clear inflection point. The company reported same-store sales growth of 0.3%, while this figure may seem modest, we view it as a favorable development. Notably, the events business, which has been the primary drag on same-store sales in recent periods, improved significantly during the quarter and was roughly flat y-o-y. Furthermore, in January, the event business experienced double-digit growth before being impacted by a major snowstorm.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – Q4 and FY2025 Financial Results Exceed Expectations Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Operational Update Following Webinar Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – $150 Million Bond Pricing The Beachbody Company (BODI)/OUTPERFORM – Executing Strategic Growth Initiatives V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Some Recent News
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$25 | Price Target: $33) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Q4 and FY2025 Financial Results Exceed Expectations Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results. Alliance reported adjusted fourth quarter revenue, adj. EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $535.5 million, $191.1 million, and $0.64, respectively, compared to $590.1 million, $124.0 million, and $0.12 during the prior year period. We had forecast revenue, adj. EBITDA and EPU of $560.1 million, $182.9 million, and $0.57, respectively. While the quarter was impacted by lower coal sales, which impacted revenue, operating expenses were lower, and net income on equity method investments exceeded our estimate. Full year 2025 adj. EBITDA and EPU of $698.7 million and $2.40, respectively, were above our estimates of $690.5 million and $2.33, respectively.
Management guidance for 2026. Total coal sales are expected to be in the range of 33.75 million to 35.25 million tons, while the sales price of coal per ton is expected to be in the range of $54.00 to $56.00. Segmented adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold is expected to be $37.00 to $39.00. ARLP has committed and priced 32.2 million tons of its 2026 sales volume, including 30.5 million tons for the domestic market and 1.7 million tons for the export market.
Comstock (LODE/$2.94) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Operational Update Following Webinar Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Industry-scale facility fully permitted. Comstock has received all required regulatory approvals for its first industry-scale solar recycling facility in Silver Springs, Nevada, including the Written Determination Permit and the Air Quality Permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection. The permits cover the full scope required to commission a facility designed to process more than 3.0 million panels per year, representing up to 100 thousand tons of end-of-life solar materials. Installation, testing, and commissioning are expected to occur during the first quarter of 2026.
Unit economics. Comstock’s recycling process is certified as a zero-landfill solution and designed to handle all major solar panel types, eliminating contaminants and recovering aluminum, glass, and metal-rich tailings. Comstock estimates that facility-level economics reflect a combination of upfront processing fees and proceeds from recovered materials, resulting in revenue of ~$750 per ton against all-in operating costs of roughly $150 per ton. Based on current operating data, profitability is achievable at relatively low utilization levels.
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$9.31 | Price Target: $23) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 $150 Million Bond Pricing Rating: OUTPERFORM
Pricing announced for upcoming bond issuance. Sky Harbour priced $150 million of Series 2026 private activity tax-exempt bonds at par to yield 6.0%, with a mandatory tender on January 1, 2031, and an expected closing on or about February 12, 2026. The transaction is another example of the company’s tax-advantaged financing toolkit and deepens its access to institutional municipal investors.
Deal upsized on strong investor demand. The transaction was initially marketed at $100 million but was upsized to $150 million after receiving approximately $450 million of orders from 18 institutional investors. In our view, the oversubscription supports growing investor comfort in the asset base, the cash flow ramp, and the repeatable development playbook.
The Beachbody Company (BODI/$11.65 | Price Target: $15) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Executing Strategic Growth Initiatives Rating: OUTPERFORM
P90X Generation Next. On February 3, the company launched P90X Generation Next, the first new P90X fitness program in over a decade. Notably, the P90X franchise launched in 2005 and became one of the best-selling home fitness programs of all time, with more than 20 million people worldwide participating. Furthermore, the new exercise program is available on the company’s digital streaming platform BODi, and supported by brand partners and a new line of exercise supplements.
Digital streaming platform. Importantly, P90X Generation Next is available on the company’s digital platform, BODi, with a subscription. Moreover, subscribers can access the full P90X catalog of 145 workouts, including the original P90X, for $9.99/month. Additionally, the company offers a broader BODi membership priced at $19/month or an annual plan for $179/year that includes 8,000+ workouts, 140+ step-by-step programs, and nutrition plans.
V2X (VVX/$66.4 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Some Recent News Rating: OUTPERFORM
Recent News. There has been a flurry of positive recent news on V2X, from confirmation of the T-6 award to new partnerships with Amazon and Google to an award under the Missile Defense Agency’s (MDA) Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) to support Golden Dome to advancement to Phase II of the U.S. Army’s Flight School Next (FSN) competition. Below, we highlight three of the developments.
T-6 Award. The U.S. Court of Federal Claims denied the protest and upheld the Air Force’s selection of V2X for the $4.3 billion T-6 Contractor Operated and Maintained Base Supply (COMBS) contract. With a period of performance through July 2034, the $4.3 billion award could generate an average of $475 million in annual revenue.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, February 2, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – Phase 1b Data Presented But Tegoprubart Remains Misunderstood Kelly Services (KELYA)/OUTPERFORM – We Have Assumed Control Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – More Cost Out
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$2.2 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Phase 1b Data Presented But Tegoprubart Remains Misunderstood Rating: OUTPERFORM
Phase 1b Data For Second Year After Transplantation Presented. Eledon presented data from its Phase 1b trial at the American Society of Transplant Surgeons (ASTS) meeting in January 2026. The presentation included data from 8 patients that had reached 24 months after transplantation, compared with 12 patients evaluated 12 months after transplantation presented in August 2025. These new data show a continued improvement in kidney function during the second year.
New Data Show Durability With Improvements. The 24-month data shows eGFR in tegoprubart patients continued to improve during months 12 to 24 after transplantation. The eGFR levels were restored to normal levels within 1 month after transplantation and were maintained for up to 2 years. Although this is a small number of patients, we see the result as consistent with prior data and our expectations for organ survival.
Kelly Services (KELYA/$10.79 | Price Target: $17) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 We Have Assumed Control Rating: OUTPERFORM
Sale Completed. On Friday, Hunt Equity Opportunities, a subsidiary of Hunt Companies, acquired the 3,039,240 Class B shares previously held by the Terence E. Adderley Revocable Trust K. Hunt now has effective control of Kelly, as owner of 92.2% of the voting Class B shares. According to James Christopher Hunt, CEO of Hunt, “Hunt is very excited about the value creation opportunities ahead for Kelly. We look forward to supporting Chris Layden, CEO of Kelly, and the rest of the Company’s management team as they focus on accelerating growth and realizing Kelly’s full potential.”
Board Changes. As part of the transition, four Hunt designees have been named to Kelly’s Board, with five former Kelly directors leaving the Board, which will now consist of 8 members. Mr. Hunt has been named Chairman of the Board.
Resources Connection (RGP/$4.53 | Price Target: $10) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 More Cost Out Rating: OUTPERFORM
Cost Out. Last week, RGPauthorized a reduction of its global management and administrative workforce intended to reduce cost structure through enhanced efficiencies and streamlined operations. The Company expects the reduction in force to result in annual cost savings of $6-$8 million. Restructuring charges of approximately $3 million are expected to be recognized in the third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2026. The workforce reduction should be substantially completed by the end of fiscal 2026.
Additive. Last week’s announcement is on top of the October RIF, which also is expected to yield annual savings of $6 million to $8 million. Combined, the two actions could reduce expenses in the $12-$16 million range. These efforts are part of an even deeper assessment across the entire organization to streamline organizational structure, simplify processes, and adopt automation and AI to ensure RGP’s cost structure is adequately sized to the current revenue levels.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, January 30, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS)/MARKET PERFORM – Leaning Into Its Efficiency Initiatives AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Secular Tailwinds Expected to Sustain Sales and Cash Flow Growth Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – OLC Resubmission Accepted For FDA Review
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS/$4.63) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Leaning Into Its Efficiency Initiatives Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Difficult quarter. Fiscal Q2 revenue of $702.2 million declined by a disappointing 9.5%, but was in line with our conservative estimate of $702.0 million. Adj. EBITDA was $98.1 million, beating our estimate of $89.5 million by 9.6%. In our view, the results reflect the company’s initiative to focus on efficient use of marketing spend.
Cost actions are working, but benefits are not fully visible yet. Operating expenses declined meaningfully year over year, and the company has already achieved approximately $15 million in annualized run-rate cost savings. However, temporary consulting and incentive compensation costs related to the transformation are delaying the full earnings benefit. As these costs roll off, underlying profitability should improve.
AZZ (AZZ/$124.97 | Price Target: $140) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Secular Tailwinds Expected to Sustain Sales and Cash Flow Growth Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updating estimates. While our FY2026 and FY2027 estimates are unchanged, we anticipate higher gross margins in the AZZ Metal Coatings and Precoat Metals segments beginning in FY2028. The company’s three-year plan established a goal of generating EBITDA margins of greater than 22.0% of revenue by 2028. Our revisions more closely align our forward estimates with this goal, and our estimates through FY2031 may be found in the financial model at the end of this report.
Secular growth drivers. We think AZZ is poised to benefit from multi-year secular drivers of growth. These include: 1) growth in infrastructure spending, 2) reshoring/nearshoring manufacturing, 3) migration to pre-painted steel and aluminum, 4) conversion from plastics to aluminum, 5) conversion to coil coating, and 6) growth in data centers.
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$6.67 | Price Target: $60) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 OLC Resubmission Accepted For FDA Review Rating: OUTPERFORM
Unicycive Announced FDA Acceptance Of The NDA. Unicycive announced FDA acceptance of its resubmission of the New Drug Application (NDA) for OLC (oxylanthanum citrate). The resubmitted application has been classified as a Class II complete response, with a six-month review period. June 29, 2026 is the new PDUFA date, the statutory date for the application to be answered. This is consistent with our expected timeframe for OLC approval and launch.
We See NDA Acceptance As A Significant Milestone. In June 2025, an FDA manufacturing inspection found compliance deficiencies at the facility of a contract manufacturer. This stopped the NDA approval process just weeks before the PDUFA (Prescription Drug User Fee Act) date of June 28, 2025. The review of the preclinical, clinical, safety, and manufacturing data had been completed. We believe this will result in prompt approval.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, January 29, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – Upcoming FY 2025 Financial Results and 2026 Corporate Guidance Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Updated Model; Raising Price Target Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – 2026 Corporate Guidance Released, Revising Estimates
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$24.31 | Price Target: $33) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Upcoming FY 2025 Financial Results and 2026 Corporate Guidance Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results. Alliance will report its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results before the market opens on Monday, February 2, 2026. Management will host an investor conference call and webcast the same day at 10:00 am ET. Along with the 2025 operational and financial results, we expect ARLP to release its 2026 corporate guidance and outlook.
Noble Estimates. We forecast fourth quarter 2025 revenue, EBITDA, and EPU of $560.1 million, $182.9 million, and $0.57, respectively. Our full year 2025 revenue, EBITDA, and EPU estimates are $2.2 billion, $690.5 million, and $2.33, respectively. Our fourth quarter EPU estimate reflects an expected unrealized and non-cash loss on the marked-to-market value of ARLP’s bitcoin holdings, which has no impact on our EBITDA estimate. We forecast 2026 revenue, EBITDA, and EPU of $2.3 billion, $700.5 million, and $2.65, respectively.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$15.32 | Price Target: $17) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Updated Model; Raising Price Target Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updated Model. We tweaked our 4Q25 projections to include higher expected interest expense and the projected $3 million charge related to the payoff of the second lien term loan. As a result, our 4Q25 EPS estimate drops to $0.22 from a prior $0.26. The drop is not related to operational performance, and the debt swap will reduce overall interest expense going forward.
Cash Flow. With the completion of the new build program in early 2026, we expect Great Lakes to use the substantial free cash flow generation towards debt reduction. Over the past 5 years, capex has averaged $136 million annually. Roughly $25 million is for maintenance capex, and we do expect some additional capex as Great Lakes modernizes its fleet. Nonetheless, we estimate there should be at least $90 million on an annual basis for debt reduction.
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.53 | Price Target: $2.6) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | 2026 Corporate Guidance Released, Revising Estimates Rating: OUTPERFORM
Outlook for 2026. Hemisphere Energy released 2026 guidance outlining a C$12.0 million capital program, expected to support ~6.3% growth in average annual production to approximately 3,900 boe/d, compared to our estimated 2025 average of 3,670 boe/d. The capital program is expected to be fully funded from adjusted funds flow and is designed to provide disciplined year-over-year growth while protecting the balance sheet and maintaining shareholder returns. Production is expected to remain 99% heavy oil, supported primarily by polymer flood enhanced oil recovery at Atlee Buffalo.
Updating estimates. We are trimming our 2026 revenue estimate to C$89.9 million from C$93.7 million due to lower production and commodity price estimates. Our production and WTI crude oil price estimates are now 3,900 boe/d and US$60 compared to our previous estimates of 4,080 boe/d and US$65. Despite the lower revenue outlook, adjusted funds flow (AFF) increased modestly to C$40.0 million from C$39.7 million, reflecting lower assumed operating costs, improved differentials, and a reduced royalty burden. AFF per share remains unchanged at C$0.40.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cardiff Oncology (CRDF)/OUTPERFORM – Phase 2 Data Announced With Management Changes Conduent (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – New CEO Appointment FAT Brands (FAT)/NOT RATED – Files Voluntary Chapter 11; Terminating Research Coverage Kuya Silver (KUYAF)/OUTPERFORM – Letter of Intent to Purchase the Camila Processing Plant; Expansion Planned Twin Hospitality (TWNP)/NOT RATED – Files Voluntary Chapter 11; Terminating Research Coverage
Cardiff Oncology (CRDF/$2 | Price Target: $12) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Phase 2 Data Announced With Management Changes Rating: OUTPERFORM
Cardiff Made Two Significant Announcements. New data from the Phase 2 CRDF-004 trial testing onvansertib as a first line treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer was announced as expected. Patients in the high-dose onvansertib group showed a large benefit in overall response rates (ORR) and progression free survival (PFS). Separately, the CEO and CFO have left the company. Board Member Dr. Mani Mohindru was named Interim CEO.
Phase 2 Trial Design. As discussed in our January 5 report,CDRF-004 is a Phase 2 dose-finding trial testing two doses of onvansertib in combination with two standard-of-care (SOC) regimens against the standard of care regimens alone. It enrolled 110 patients with RAS-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer, mCRC. Its primary endpoint is objective response rate (ORR). Secondary endpoints include progression-free survival (PFS), duration of response (DOR) and safety. These endpoints were selected to guide the design of Phase 3.
Conduent (CNDT/$1.61 | Price Target: $7) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 New CEO Appointment Rating: OUTPERFORM
Leadership transition at a natural inflection point. Conduent announced that Harsha V. Agadi has been appointed Chief Executive Officer, succeeding Cliff Skelton, with Margarita Paláu-Hernández named independent Chair of the Board. The change follows a multi-year period of portfolio rationalization, asset divestitures, and balance sheet repair. In our view, the move marks a clear emphasis on operational execution.
A shift toward speed and accountability. We view Agadi’s appointment as a logical next step for the company. His background includes senior operating and leadership roles across large, complex organizations such as Little Caesars, Church’s Chicken, Friendly’s, and Crawford & Company. We expect an early focus on leadership depth, decision velocity, and operational accountability, with an emphasis on accelerating the company’s return to revenue and cash flow growth. In our view, this signals a move from stabilization to performance.
FAT Brands (FAT/$0.26) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Files Voluntary Chapter 11; Terminating Research Coverage Rating: NOT RATED
Chapter 11. Late Monday night, FAT Brands announced it has commenced voluntary chapter 11 proceedings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas. The Company plans to use the filings to deleverage the balance sheet, maximize value for its stakeholders, and support continued growth of its brands.
Precipitating Factor? It appears the tipping point for FAT to file the voluntary chapter 11 was Investor 352 Fund, the Company’s largest bondholder, earlier on Monday announcing it was suing FAT Brands for $109 million and promised Class B Common stock tied to ownership of Twin Peaks, as it was issued by Twin Hospitality.
Kuya Silver (KUYAF/$0.82 | Price Target: $3.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Letter of Intent to Purchase the Camila Processing Plant; Expansion Planned Rating: OUTPERFORM
Processing plant acquisition. Kuya Silver signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) to purchase 100% of SMRL Camila, the company that owns the Camila conventional flotation plant, for US$7.8 million, subject to closing conditions. The Camila plant is currently processing Kuya Silver’s mineralized material to produce silver and other metal concentrates on a toll-milling basis. The plant is located on a key transport corridor between the Bethania mine and Lima, Peru, where concentrate is shipped to port. Execution of a definitive agreement is subject to the completion of legal, financial, environmental, and technical due diligence.
Scalable processing capacity. The Camila plant currently operates at 150 metric tonnes per day with plans to increase production capacity to 300 to 350 tonnes per day, which Kuya Silver expects to undertake after closing the acquisition. The expansion is projected to require an additional capital investment in the range of US$0.7 million to US$1.0 million.
Twin Hospitality (TWNP/$0.35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Files Voluntary Chapter 11; Terminating Research Coverage Rating: NOT RATED
Chapter 11. Along with parent company FAT Brands, Twin Hospitality commenced voluntary chapter 11 proceedings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas. Twin Hospitality plans to use the filings to deleverage the balance sheet, maximize value for its stakeholders, and support the continued growth of its brands.
Precipitating Factor? It appears the tipping point for Twin Hospitality to file the voluntary chapter 11 was Investor 352 Fund, FAT Brands’ largest bondholder, earlier on Monday announcing it was suing FAT Brands for $109 million and promised Class B Common stock tied to ownership of Twin Peaks, as it was issued by Twin Hospitality. FAT Brands and Twin Hospitality are seeking joint administration of the Chapter 11 cases under the caption “In re FAT Brands Inc., et al.”
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Graham (GHM)/MARKET PERFORM – Adds a Third Pillar
Graham (GHM/$76.25) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Adds a Third Pillar Rating: MARKET PERFORM
An Acquisition. Graham has acquired FlackTek, a pioneer in advanced mixing and material processing solutions. The acquisition adds advanced materials processing as a third core platform for Graham, alongside Graham Manufacturing, specializing in vacuum & heat transfer, and Barber-Nichols, specializing in turbomachinery. FlackTek adds a proven and defensible product portfolio with a shared customer base and an installed footprint that extends across the full value chain, from upstream to downstream production and quality control.
Details. The purchase price is $35 million, which was paid 85% in cash and 15% using 75,818 GHM shares. There is a potential $25 million in future performance-based cash earnouts over 4 years based upon achieving progressively increasing adjusted EBITDA performance targets. The base purchase price is approximately 12x FlackTek’s projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA. FlackTek generates approximately $30 million in annualized revenue.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, January 26, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Expansion of Credit Facility
The GEO Group (GEO/$18.55 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Expansion of Credit Facility Rating: OUTPERFORM
Credit Facility. The GEO Group amended its Credit Agreement, increasing GEO’s revolving credit facility to $550 million from a prior $450 million. The increase was effective as of January 20th. The increase provides the Company with additional financial flexibility, in our view, to further invest in growth opportunities and/or increase the share repurchase activity.
Share Repurchases. Recall, back in November, GEO announced an expansion of its share repurchase authorization to $500 million and extended the expiration date to December 31, 2029. As of November 6, 2025, the Company had approximately $458 million of repurchase authorization available under the share repurchase program. At the current price, the $100 million, if all used to repurchase shares, would further reduce the share count by approximately 5.38 million shares.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, January 23, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – Some Green Shoots? Updated Estimates Kuya Silver (KUYAF)/OUTPERFORM – Mine Development and Balance Sheet Strength Support 2026 Ramp-Up
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$1.63 | Price Target: $4) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Some Green Shoots? Updated Estimates Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updated Estimates. We tweaked our fourth quarter 2025 estimates after speaking with management. The changes do not impact our belief in the investment case for Commercial Vehicle Group. We maintained our revenue estimate at $146 million. Gross margin has been lowered to 10.3% from 11% previously. We are now estimating an adjusted net loss of $5 million, or $0.15 per share. Adjusted EBITDA is now $2.8 million. For the full year, we are at revenue of $640.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $18.3 million.
Green Shoots? Recent data from FTR and ACT could indicate an improved Class 8 truck environment in 2026, although we would need to see multiple months of positive developments before jumping in with both feet. According to FTR, December Class 8 truck orders of 42,200 units were the highest level since October 2022. Meanwhile, ACT raised its expectation for Class 8 production in 2026 to 246,000 units, up from a prior 205,000, and nearly flat with 2025.
Kuya Silver (KUYAF/$0.73 | Price Target: $3.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Mine Development and Balance Sheet Strength Support 2026 Ramp-Up Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth Quarter Performance. The company mined 1,999 tonnes of mineralized material and processed 1,570 tonnes. Average processed grades were 6.0 oz/t silver (186.6 g/t), 1.40% lead, and 1.10% zinc, or 8.5 oz/t silver equivalent (264 g/t). Recoveries averaged 73.3% for silver, 79.1% for lead, and 57.1% for zinc. Metal processed included 7,724 ounces of silver, 18 tonnes of lead, and 15 tonnes of zinc. Sales included 5,441 ounces of silver, 15 tonnes of lead, and 8 tonnes of zinc, representing 6,194 silver-equivalent ounces, with silver contributing 88%.
Private Placement Financing. Kuya closed a brokered private placement raising gross proceeds of C$25.5 million. The company intends to pursue either the acquisition of an operating plant near the mine or the construction of a plant at the Bethania site to vertically integrate silver concentrate production. As mine production expands toward the Phase 1 target of 350 tonnes per day, Kuya expects more consistent processing, improved silver recoveries, and the recovery of minor gold and copper currently lost in the toll-milling process.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Adds a New Director Power Metallic Mines Inc. (PNPNF)/OUTPERFORM – From Legacy Nickel to District-Scale Polymetallic System
NN (NNBR/$1.48 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Adds a New Director Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Board Addition. NN added T ed White to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Mr. White is co-founder of Legion Partners Asset Management, one of NN’s largest shareholders, owning approximately 9.55% of the outstanding common as of the date of the agreement, as well as economic exposure to another 5.99% of the Company’s shares. Mr. White will join the Board’s Strategic Committee, which was formed to evaluate a broad range of strategic, financing, and other alternatives to enhance shareholder value.
Cooperation Agreement. In connection with this appointment, the Company entered into a cooperation agreement with Legion Partners. The Legion cooperation agreement contains a customary standstill, voting commitment, and related provisions. Legion’s ownership is capped at 19.9% of the outstanding NNBR shares.
Power Metallic Mines Inc. (PNPNF/$1.17 | Price Target: $2.65) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | From Legacy Nickel to District-Scale Polymetallic System Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating Coverage with an Outperform rating. Power Metallic Mines Inc. (OTCQB: PNPNF, TSXV: PNPN) is a Québec-based mineral exploration company advancing a high-grade polymetallic discovery that has evolved into a district-scale opportunity. Recent discoveries at the Nisk Project have shifted the investment thesis from a legacy nickel-sulphide asset to a high-grade copper-platinum group elements (PGE), nickel, gold, and silver system with emerging scale and continuity. Target metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, platinum, and palladium, are integral to electrification, industrial manufacturing, and critical mineral markets. Our price target is US$2.65 per share or C$3.65 per share.
Lion Zone Discovery. The investment case is anchored by the Lion Zone, a high-grade, copper-dominant orthomagmatic polymetallic discovery that represents the core value driver within the broader Nisk land package. Drilling at Lion has returned exceptional grades, including 11.6 meters grading 8.3% copper, 9.6 g/t palladium, and 2.6 g/t platinum, materially enhancing the project’s value profile beyond nickel alone. Follow-up drilling at the nearby Tiger Zone has confirmed the presence of similar mineralization along trend, supporting the interpretation that Lion-style mineralization is repeatable rather than isolated.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – AI Acquisition Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – A Strong Start to the Year
Information Services Group (III/$5.89 | Price Target: $6.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 AI Acquisition Rating: OUTPERFORM
AI Maturity Index. Information Services Group has acquired the AI Maturity Index, a SaaS platform that allows organizations to assess the AI readiness of their workforces and improve their employees’ ability to leverage AI technology. The AI Maturity Index provides ISG with a high-impact, scalable entry point into every client’s AI journey. In its short time on the market, the AI Maturity Index has assessed more than 6,000 individual AI users and collected more than 400,000 data points—adoption that will expand exponentially as the platform gains broader use. Terms of the deal were not released.
Acceleration. The acquisition is part of a broader AI acceleration strategy by ISG that includes the formation of an AI Acceleration Unit that brings an integrated, expert-led approach to helping clients rapidly scale AI, and the upcoming launch of a proprietary insights platform with an AI-powered “intelligence advisor” to give organizations real-time access to highly sought-after ISG data and analysis.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$130.72 | Price Target: $145) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A Strong Start to the Year Rating: OUTPERFORM
Raising PT to $145. We are maintaining our Outperform rating and raising our price target on KTOS shares to $145 from a previous $95. KTOS shares are up 72% YTD, compared to 1.4% for the S&P 500, continuing the outperformance seen over the past three years. We believe the abundant opportunities across the business, potential positive increases in the defense budget, and solid execution present strong financial upside potential.
Defense Budget. Interest in the defense sector is partially being driven by the Trump Administration’s goal to increase the 2027 Defense budget by 50% to $1.5 trillion, up from approximately $1 trillion in 2026. Significantly, as relates to Kratos, a key focus of any increased spending will be on drones, autonomous systems, cybersecurity, and space, all key areas of Kratos.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, January 16, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT)/OUTPERFORM – Acquires Formidable Technology Company CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Some Model Refinements Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – Preliminary Phase 2 Data From OCU410 Shows Improvements in dAMD Geographic Atrophy
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT/$7.6 | Price Target: $11) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Acquires Formidable Technology Company Rating: OUTPERFORM
Dynamic acquisition. On December 31, 2025, the company acquired Endstate, a technology company focused on NFC-enabled authentication, digital product identity, and authenticated resale infrastructure for physical goods. Following the acquisition, the company formed a new wholly owned subsidiary, Endstate Authentic LLC. Details of the acquisition were not disclosed.
Vinyl is just the start. Notably, the Endstate technology is currently used by Alliance Authentic for the sale of limited-edition, numbered, blockchain-authenticated vinyl records and a commission-based secondary marketplace that is expected to generate high-margin recurring revenue. Importantly, while the company currently only offers vinyl on this platform, we believe there is a significant opportunity for product category growth, given the company’s large selection of physical media and collectables.
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$19.91 | Price Target: $28) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Some Model Refinements Rating: OUTPERFORM
Model Refinements. Pre fourth quarter earnings, we went over our model and made some modest adjustments, as well as incorporated 2026 quarterly estimates. With the strong new contract awards in 2025, increased detention populations, and potential for additional awards in 2026, we believe CoreCivic is well positioned to post strong 2026 full year results.
Populations Continue to Rise. Overall, the ICE detainee population continues to increase, hitting just under 69,000 at year-end. This is up from approximately 39,000 at the end of 2024. We expect to see ICE detainee populations continue to increase over the course of 2026 as ICE brings on additional enforcement personnel. Increased populations bode well for CoreCivic.
Ocugen (OCGN/$1.62 | Price Target: $8) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Preliminary Phase 2 Data From OCU410 Shows Improvements in dAMD Geographic Atrophy Rating: OUTPERFORM
Positive Preliminary Data From The OCU410 Trial. Ocugen announced first data from its Phase 2 ArMaDa trial testing OCU410 in Geographic Atrophy associated with dry Age-related Macular Degeneration (GA-dAMD). The announcement included the patients who have reached 12 months after treatment, with 23 out of the total 51 patients enrolled. The data shows an overall 46% reduction in lesion growth compared with controls. We see this as a highly meaningful difference.
OCU410 Is A Single-Treatment Gene Therapy. OCU410 is being developed as gene therapy for patients with GA secondary to dry AMD. A single OCU410 intravitreal injection delivers RORA (retinoid-related orphan receptor alpha), a nuclear receptor that regulates key pathways involved in retinal homeostasis with four mechanisms of action.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, January 15, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Preparing for Growth: Expanding Milling Capacity
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.72 | Price Target: $1.2) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Preparing for Growth: Expanding Milling Capacity Rating: OUTPERFORM
Upsized Private Placement Financing. Due to strong support from shareholders and new institutional investors, Nicola Mining upsized its previously announced non-brokered private placement from C$1.0 million to C$3.0 million with the issuance of up to a total of ~3.3 million units at a price of C$0.90 per unit, including ~1.1 million issued during the first closing on the same terms. Each unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at a price of C$1.10 per share for a period of three years following the closing of the offering. The expiry of the warrants may be accelerated subject to certain conditions.
Use of Proceeds. Nicola’s Merritt Mill is the sole facility in British Columbia permitted to receive and process third-party gold and silver feed from across the province. Funds generated from the financing will be used for the purchase and installation of milling equipment to expand Merritt Mill processing capacity from ~200 tonnes per day to ~500 tonnes per day, the addition of a secondary ball mill, supplementary cleaner flotation cells, and associated pumping infrastructure. Spare bowl and mantle assemblies may be procured to support routine crusher maintenance and ensure operational reliability.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT)/OUTPERFORM – Another Exclusive Partnership Kelly Services (KELYA)/OUTPERFORM – Trust To Sell Controlling Stake; Kelly Adopts Shareholders Rights Plan ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – Releases Preliminary 4Q and FY25 Sales Results SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Extended Maturities Enhances Balance Sheet Flexibility SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Joining NVIDIA Connect
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT/$7.74 | Price Target: $11) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Another Exclusive Partnership Rating: OUTPERFORM
Amazon MGM Studios partnership. Notably, on January 12, the company announced an exclusive multi-year home entertainment licensing agreement with Amazon MGM Studios Distribution. Furthermore, the partnership positions the company as the sole physical media distributor for Amazon MGM titles across DVD, Blu-ray, UHD/4K, and premium collector options in the U.S. and Canada.
Extensive catalog. Notably, Amazon MGM Studios has a number of favorable releases this year, including Fallout Season 2 and Mercy. Additionally, the new releases build on an extensive content catalog, which includes globally recognized franchises such as James Bond and Rocky, as well as several other popular titles, including The Silence of the Lambs and Legally Blonde.
Kelly Services (KELYA/$9.56 | Price Target: $17) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Trust To Sell Controlling Stake; Kelly Adopts Shareholders Rights Plan Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Surprise Sale. Yesterday morning, Kelly Services announced that last Friday, the Terence E. Adderley Revocable Trust K notified Kelly’s Board that it entered into a definitive agreement to sell its entire holding, which constitutes 92.2% of the voting Class B common stock, to a private party. In an amended Schedule 13D filing after the market closed yesterday, the buyer was identified as Hunt Equity Opportunities.
A Large Premium. Hunt is purchasing the 3,039,940 B shares held by the Trust for $106 million, or the equivalent of $34.87/sh. The B shares closed on Friday at $8.86. Historically, the A and B shares have traded in tandem, although there have been periods in which one class has outpaced the other. There is a potential $15.2 million additional payout if the market capitalization of Kelly is equal to or greater than $1.2 billion at any time over the next 48 months. The deal is expected to close by the end of January.
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$2.46 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Releases Preliminary 4Q and FY25 Sales Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
4Q25. Preliminary total GAAP revenues for 4Q25 are expected to be approximately $207 million, a 6.8% decrease from $222 million in 4Q24 and below the $223 million consensus estimate. This decline was primarily driven by RA Sushi and Kona Grill closures as part of the portfolio optimization and the change in the Company’s fiscal year. The Grill closures are expected to reduce total GAAP revenues by approximately 2.4%, representing 35% of the expected total GAAP revenue decline.
Calendar Impacts. The fiscal calendar change to 4 equal quarters in 2025 created timing differences that impacted quarterly comparisons: 4Q25 had 91 days versus 92 days in 4Q24. Additionally, the New Year’s Eve holiday shifted from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2026. The exclusion of New Year’s Eve in the current year impacted total GAAP revenues by approximately 2.5%, representing 37% of the expected total GAAP revenue decline. Fourth quarter comparable sales are expected to decrease by approximately 1.8%.
SelectQuote (SLQT/$1.72 | Price Target: $7) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Extended Maturities Enhances Balance Sheet Flexibility Rating: OUTPERFORM
Extended maturity. The company completed a comprehensive refinance that extends its primary debt maturities to January 2031, removing the prior 2027 overhang. The new $325M senior secured term loan and $90M revolver replace the legacy structure and provide a multi-year runway. We view this as a structural reset that repositions the balance sheet to be better-aligned with the company’s long-term growth strategy.
Cost of capital improvements. The new facility delivers immediate interest savings on the revolver (SOFR + 400 bps versus SOFR + 500 bps previously) and embeds a clear path to lower term-loan pricing. The term loan begins at SOFR + 650 bps, with step-downs to SOFR + 600 bps and ultimately SOFR + 550 bps as leverage and Cash EBITDA improve. Operating performance will now have the potential to directly translate into interest savings.
SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$2.21 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Joining NVIDIA Connect Rating: OUTPERFORM
NVIDIA partnership elevates SKYX’s technology profile. SKYX joined the NVIDIA Connect Program, gaining access to NVIDIA’s cloud and AI ecosystem to support development of its All-In-One Smart Platform. Management described the relationship as “game-changing,” reinforcing SKYX’s positioning as a technology platform company.
The Smart Platform is designed to be the ceiling-based hub of the home. The SkyPlatform embeds connectivity, safety, and intelligence into a single ceiling-based hub, combining Wi-Fi, voice and app control, speakers, thermostat functions, emergency lighting, and safety features. The platform is designed to be compatible with leading smart assistants such as Apple’s Siri and Amazon’s Alexa, simplifying how homes adopt and manage connected technology.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, January 12, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – All Permits Received for Comstock Metals’ Industry-Scale Recycling Facility MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – A Raise V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – A Board Refresh
Comstock (LODE/$3.74) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | All Permits Received for Comstock Metals’ Industry-Scale Recycling Facility Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Receipt of Written Determination Permit. Comstock Metals received its Written Determination Permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection for the processing of waste solar panels and photovoltaics at its planned industry-scale materials recovery facility in Silver Springs, Nevada. Receipt of the permit will result in a fully permitted operation and facility, and is expected to enable Comstock to install, test, and commission the facility on schedule during the first quarter of 2026.
Receipt of Air Quality Permit. Earlier this month, Comstock Metals received approval for the associated Air Quality control permit. Both permits represent the complete scope of required regulatory approvals for commissioning the scale up of a facility designed for processing more than 3.0 million panels per year representing up to 100 thousand tons per year of waste materials. The facility integrates technologies for crushing, conditioning, extracting, and recycling metal concentrates from photovoltaics.
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.4328) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A Raise Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Raise. MustGrow has announced a raise of up to $2 million in a non-brokered private placement of up to 4,000,000 units of the Company at a price of $0.50 per Unit. Each unit will consist of (i) one common share of the Company and (ii) one common share purchase warrant. Each whole warrant will be exercisable for a period of 60 months from the closing date and will entitle the holder to purchase one additional share at an exercise price of $0.70 per warrant share. The closing of the Offering is expected to take place on January 22, 2026, but may take place in one or more tranches, provided that the final tranche closing will occur no later than February 22, 2026.
Use of Proceeds. The Company intends to use the net proceeds raised from the LIFE Offering for inventory production for its mustard-derived organic biofertility product TerraSante, inventory for agricultural products to sell via its Canadian distribution platform NexusBioAg, and working capital and general corporate purposes. Recall, MustGrow ran out of TerraSante product in the second and third quarters last year as demand exceeded management’s initial forecasts.
V2X (VVX/$62.78 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A Board Refresh Rating: OUTPERFORM
Refresh. V2X’s Board recently elected to increase the size of the Board from 7 members to 10 members and appointed Nicole B. Theophilus, Gerard A. Fasano, and Ross S. Niebergall, effective immediately, as new members of the Board to serve as Class I, Class II, and Class III Directors, respectively.
Theophilus. Ms. Theophilus currently serves as EVP and Chief Administrative Officer of Wabtec Corporation, a global provider of equipment, systems, digital solutions, and value-added services, since July 2024. She previously served as Wabtec’s EVP and Chief Human Resources Officer from August 2020 to March 2024. She was also the EVP and Chief Human Resources Officer for West Corporation from April 2016 to February 2018 and for ConAgra Foods from November 2009 to August 2015.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, January 9, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Third Quarter FY26 Review and Outlook Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – Year End Review: 2026 Could Be A Pivotal Year Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Pricing Discipline Holds as Volume Pressure Persists
AZZ (AZZ/$117.04 | Price Target: $130) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Third Quarter FY26 Review and Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
FY 2026 third-quarter financial results. AZZ reported adjusted net income of $46.0 million, or $1.52 per share, compared to $41.9 million, or $1.39 per share, during the prior year period. We had forecast adjusted net income of $44.9 million, or $1.48 per share. Compared to the third quarter of FY 2025, total sales increased 5.5% to $425.7 million. We had projected sales of $424.6 million. Gross margin of $101.9 million was modestly below our estimate of $103.2 million. Operating income of $69.5 million exceeded our estimate of $64.9 million, due to lower selling, general, and administrative expenses. Adjusted EBITDA increased modestly to $91.2 million compared to $90.7 million during the prior year period and our estimate of $93.3 million.
Updating estimates. With one quarter remaining, we have lowered our FY 2026 EBITDA estimate to $368.0 million from $369.2 million, and increased our EPS estimate to $6.03 from $5.98. We have increased our 2027 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $388.0 million and $6.60, respectively, from $387.4 million and $6.45. Our longer-term estimates through FY 2031 reflect multi-year growth and are summarized at the end of this report. Our estimates do not reflect the impact of acquisitions until announced.
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.05) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Year End Review: 2026 Could Be A Pivotal Year Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Direct Digital remained a key strategic channel, supporting customer acquisition, margin mix improvement, and first-party data ownership despite a challenging macro and media cost environment. The channel continued to evolve toward a full-funnel model, with increasing contribution from returning customers, improved conversion rates, and greater emphasis on retention and lifecycle engagement.
Repositioning for strategic growth. Ongoing headwinds from media cost inflation, intensifying competition, and platform volatility have persisted in 2025, prompting a strategic shift toward owned-channel development, tighter audience targeting, and stronger cross-functional execution. Looking forward, Direct Digital is increasingly aligned around a more disciplined growth model, prioritizing customer retention, lifetime value, and earnings durability over volume-driven top-line expansion.
Resources Connection (RGP/$4.5 | Price Target: $10) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Pricing Discipline Holds as Volume Pressure Persists Rating: OUTPERFORM
Continued Revenue Pressure. RGP reported second quarter revenue of $117.7 million, down 19% year-over-year. On a same-day constant currency basis, revenue declined 18.4%, driven almost entirely by lower billable hours across the core On-Demand and Consulting segments. Importantly, the weakness remains volume-driven rather than price-driven, as average bill rates were largely stable and improved in several key geographies.
Pricing Discipline, Volume Weak. The Company continues to make progress with its value-based pricing initiatives. U.S. bill rates increased 2.5% year over year, Consulting bill rates rose 6.6%, and On-Demand bill rates increased 2.6%. However, these gains were more than offset by sharp declines in billable hours, particularly in Consulting (-33.8%) and On-Demand (-21.5%). Management specifically highlighted reduced demand for traditional finance roles as clients adopt automation and AI, underscoring that part of the On-Demand softness may be structural rather than purely cyclical.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, January 8, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – 2025 Review and 2026 Expectations AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Third Quarter FY 2026 Results Outpace Expectations Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – Monthly ETH Production Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Comstock Metals Achieves a Major Permitting Milestone
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$3.79 | Price Target: $9) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 2025 Review and 2026 Expectations Rating: OUTPERFORM
2025 Review. ACCO Brands’ 2025 narrative was dominated by a clear priority: defend profitability and cash generation in a soft demand environment, using restructuring and cost takeout as the primary levers while the top line remained pressured. Across the first three quarters of 2025, demand was weak and uneven globally, and Q3 in particular underscored that as sales came in lower than expected; however, the Company still delivered adjusted earnings in line with its outlook by expanding gross margin and lowering SG&A, demonstrating meaningful operating discipline.
2026 Preview. Looking into 2026, we believe the key question for investors is whether ACCO can convert its 2025 operational progress into a durable and investable story rather than a purely defensive one. The most important variable remains organic revenue stabilization: the Company has demonstrated the ability to protect earnings despite sales declines, but the market will require evidence that declines are moderating, particularly in the Americas, and that channel inventories and promotional intensity are improving rather than worsening.
FY 2026 third-quarter financial results. AZZ reported adjusted net income of $46.0 million, or $1.52 per share, compared to $41.9 million, or $1.39 per share, during the prior year period. We had forecast adjusted net income of $44.9 million, or $1.48 per share. Compared to the third quarter of FY 2025, total sales increased 5.5% to $425.7 million. We had projected sales of $424.6 million. Gross margin of $101.9 million was modestly below our estimate of $103.2 million. Operating income of $69.5 million exceeded our estimate of $64.9 million, due to lower selling, general, and administrative expenses. Adjusted EBITDA increased modestly to $91.2 million compared to $90.7 million during the prior year period and our estimate of $93.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin as a percentage of sales amounted to 21.4% compared to 22.5% during the third quarter of FY 2025.
Segment results. While Metal Coatings sales were up 15.7% compared to the prior year quarter, Precoat Metals sales were down 1.8%. Metal Coatings delivered higher sales due to increased volume driven by infrastructure-related projects in several end markets. Precoat Metals experienced lower sales due to weaker end markets, including building construction, HVAC, and transportation, partially offset by container. Segment adjusted EBITDA margin amounted to 30.3% for Metal Coatings and 19.7% for Precoat Metals.
Bit Digital (BTBT/$2.19 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Monthly ETH Production Rating: OUTPERFORM
Data. Bit Digital reported its monthly Ethereum (“ETH”) treasury and staking metrics for the month of December 2025. As of December 31, 2025, the Company held approximately 155,227 ETH versus 154,398.7 ETH at the end of November. Included in the ETH holdings were approximately 15,146.0 ETH and ETH-equivalents held in an externally managed fund. The Company staked an additional 642 ETH during the month. The Company’s total staked ETH was approximately 138,263, or about 89% of its total holdings as of December 31st.
Yield and Value. Staking operations generated approximately 389.6 ETH in rewards during the period, representing an annualized yield of approximately 3.5%. Based on a closing ETH price of $2,967, as of December 31, 2025, the market value of the Company’s ETH holdings was approximately $460.5 million.
Comstock (LODE/$3.97) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Comstock Metals Achieves a Major Permitting Milestone Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Receipt of Air Quality Permit. Comstock Metals received its Air Quality Permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection – Bureau of Air Pollution Control for the processing of waste solar panels and photovoltaics at its planned industry-scale materials recovery facility in Silver Springs, Nevada. Receipt of the permit is expected to enable Comstock to install, test, and commission the facility on schedule during the first quarter of 2026.
Closing in on the Written Determination Permit. The Air Quality Permit follows a notification of eligibility for a written determination permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection – Bureau of Sustainable Materials Management, which is now through the public notice period. Once the written determination permit is final, the two permits represent the complete scope of required regulatory approvals for commissioning the scale up of the recovery facility designed to process more than 3.0 million panels per year, representing up to 100 thousand tons per year of waste materials.
Updating 2025 estimates. We have lowered our Q4 and FY 2025 EPU estimates to $0.57 and $2.33, respectively, from $0.69 and $2.45. We have marked-to-market ARLP’s holding of bitcoins, which amounted to 568 bitcoins as of September 30. The price of bitcoin closed at $87,508.83 on December 31, 2025, compared to $114,056 on September 30. We anticipate the value of digital assets in Q4 2025 could decrease by approximately $15.1 million if all bitcoins were held through the fourth quarter. Because it would represent a non-cash unrealized loss, it has no impact on our adjusted EBITDA estimate.
Looking ahead. While our 2026 and 2027 estimates are unchanged, we think coal supply and demand fundamentals could strengthen going into 2027, which could have a positive impact on pricing. Actions taken by the Trump Administration are expected to support and sustain coal-fired power generation. Electricity demand growth is expected to be driven by industrial growth, electrification, and the expansion of AI infrastructure and data centers.
First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF/$0.76 | Price Target: $1.55) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Transitioning from Exploration to Feasibility Rating: OUTPERFORM
Offtake agreement. First Phosphate recently amended an offtake agreement that includes a US$0.53 million upfront pre-payment during the fourth quarter of FY 2026. The funds will be used to advance the Begin-Lamarche project towards a feasibility study and later, production. The prepayment is subject to refund should First Phosphate decide not to pursue a feasibility study or production, neither of which we anticipate. In our view, the prepayment validates downstream interest and reinforces the strategic relevance of the Company’s integrated phosphate platform.
Final tranches of private placement. The Company closed the third and fourth tranches of its oversubscribed non-brokered private placement in December, raising approximately $9.6 million in gross proceeds and bringing total capital raised since June 2022 to approximately $49.7 million. Following recent warrant exercises and the offtake pre-payment, management indicates cash on hand of approximately $24 million, which we believe is sufficient to fund planned activities through 2026 and into 2027.
Kuya Silver (KUYAF/$0.7 | Price Target: $1.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Vertically Integrating its Operation Rating: OUTPERFORM
Private Placement Financing. Kuya Silver Corporation (OTCQB: KUYAF, CSE: KUYA) announced a brokered private placement pursuant to the listed issuer financing exemption of up to 15.0 million units of the company at a price of C$1.00 per unit for aggregate gross proceeds of up to C$15.0 million. Each unit will consist of one common share and one half of one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$1.30 per common share for a period of 36 months from the date of issuance.
Use of Proceeds. Kuya intends to use the net proceeds of the offering to advance the company’s Bethania project with the acquisition of and/or development of concentrate processing capacity. Kuya is evaluating several options, each of which is fully permitted and will allow the company to vertically integrate its production capabilities. Funds may also be used to explore the Silver Kings Project in Ontario, discretionary growth capital, and for general corporate purposes.
Positive Guidance Received From CDE. Gyre announced that its majority-owned subsidiary in China, Gyre Pharmaceuticals Ltd, has completed pre-NDA discussions with the Chinese Center for Drug Evaluation (CDE). The CDE indicated that the Phase 3 data meets the requirements for approval in chronic hepatitis B-associated liver fibrosis, as expected. An NDA submission is planned for 1H26, meeting our expected milestones for the product and the company.
Approval Would Allow Full Commercialization. Under the CDE regulations, the Phase 3 supports Conditional Approval for Hydronidone, allowing full commercialization. As part of the approval, company agrees to conduct a Phase 3c study after commercialization to confirm the effects seen in Phase 3. This is similar to a Phase 4 study in the US. The study design has not be finalized, although we expect similar endpoints for confirmation of the Phase 3 data.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, January 5, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cardiff Oncology (CRDF)/OUTPERFORM – Onvansertib Could Treat Colorectal Cancers That Escape Other Treatments Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)/OUTPERFORM – Emerging Growth Levers Provide Favorable 2026 View
Cardiff Oncology (CRDF/$2.66 | Price Target: $12) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Onvansertib Could Treat Colorectal Cancers That Escape Other Treatments Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating Coverage With A $12 Price Target. Cardiff Oncology is developing onvansertib for the treatment of multiple cancer indications. Its lead program is in metastatic colorectal cancer for patients with a mutation that makes the cancer more aggressive and difficult to treat. This mutation, KRAS, is found in about 45% of the colorectal cancer patients. As a result of the mutation, several standard therapies are ineffective. We believe onvansertib’s unique mechanisms of action could be a breakthrough in cancer treatment.
Onvansertib Has Two Main Mechanisms of Action. Onvansertib inhibits PLK1, an intracellular protein needed for regulatory functions that control cell growth and division. This protein can be overexpressed in many cancers, including colorectal cancer, overriding the normal controls. A second mechanism stops a pathway that allows tumors to survive in low oxygen environments and resist treatment with bevacizumab (Avastin).
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE/$4.19 | Price Target: $5.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Emerging Growth Levers Provide Favorable 2026 View Rating: OUTPERFORM
Execution inflection driven by digital and DTC momentum. 2025 marked a clear improvement in operating execution, led by stronger e-commerce performance, enhanced digital capabilities, and early traction from the dropship initiative, which collectively supported revenue growth and improved operating leverage.
Pricing power and profitability improved despite cost headwinds. The company demonstrated brand resilience through higher average selling prices, stable unit volumes, improved full-price sell-through, and disciplined cost management, allowing it to offset tariff and freight pressures and deliver meaningful adjusted EBITDA upside.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, January 2, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – Development Update Twin Hospitality (TWNP)/MARKET PERFORM – A Management Change V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – A Strong End to 2025 Awards
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$1.75 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Development Update Rating: OUTPERFORM
Milestones. ONE Group announced a number of development milestones achieved during 4Q25. These include: entering into ten restaurant asset-light development agreements; an expanded footprint in large-market, professional sports & entertainment stadiums; opening two new STK locations; launching Benihana-branded retail product; and planning capital-efficient growth for 2026.
Largest Agreement. The ONE Group has entered into its largest asset-light development agreement in the Company’s history, securing development rights for a total of ten restaurants, either Benihana or Benihana Express locations, throughout the Greater San Francisco Bay Area. The two Benihana joint venture locations are expected to open in 2026, with the remaining franchised and licensed locations to open over the next seven years.
Twin Hospitality (TWNP/$0.67) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A Management Change Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Leadership Transition. Twin Hospitality announced Andy Wiederhorn has been named Chief Executive Officer of the Company and Roger Gondek has been named President of Twin Peaks, replacing former CEO and President Kim Boerema. While somewhat surprising, as Mr. Boerema was appointed CEO just this past May, the new leadership simplifies the leadership structure and optimizes resources while minimizing overhead, without any significant change in ability, in our view.
Roger Gondek. We believe the elevation of Mr. Gondek to President of Twin Peaks Restaurant to be the headline. Already serving as Chief Operating Officer of Twin Peaks since 2017, Mr. Gondek brings approximately 15 years of experience with the brand, including previous operations leadership roles with Twin Peaks’ largest franchisee. Mr. Gondek was the Executive Vice President of Operations of La Cima Restaurants, LLC, a franchiser of 43 Twin Peaks restaurants in Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Tennessee, from June 2011 to July 2017. Prior to La Cima Restaurants, Mr. Gondek was a Divisional Vice President at Hooters of America from October 2001 to February 2011. Mr. Gondek has a deep understanding of Twin Peaks markets, in our opinion.
V2X (VVX/$54.55 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A Strong End to 2025 Awards Rating: OUTPERFORM
DMEA ATSP. V2X subsidiary Vertex Aerospace has been named as an awardee to the Defense Microelectronics Activity (DMEA) Advanced Technology Support Program (ATSP), according to the daily Department of War contract award activity. With multi-billion dollar potential, this award caps a strong year for V2X. The Company has won places on multiple billion dollar contracts, which bode well for the future.
Details. DMEA ATSP is an ID/IQ contract with a $23.357 billion ceiling. This multiple award contract has a base ordering period of five years with two option periods, three years and two years respectively, to establish a 10 year ordering period. There are a total of 10 awardees, including Vertex. As an ID/IQ, Vertex will need to compete for each award, but we are confident the Company will receive its fair share of wins under the contract.
Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD) is doubling down on cell therapy. The Foster City–based biopharma announced it will acquire Arcellx (Nasdaq: ACLX) in a transaction valued at approximately $7.8 billion in equity value, giving Gilead full control of anitocabtagene autoleucel (anito-cel), an investigational BCMA-directed CAR T-cell therapy for multiple myeloma.
Kite, a Gilead company, has partnered with Arcellx since 2022 to co-develop and co-commercialize anito-cel. Under the new agreement, Gilead will acquire all outstanding shares of Arcellx it does not already own for $115 per share in cash, plus one non-transferable contingent value right (CVR) worth $5 per share if cumulative global net sales of anito-cel reach $6.0 billion from launch through year-end 2029.
The $115 cash component represents a 68% premium to Arcellx’s 30-day volume-weighted average share price as of February 20, 2026. Gilead already owns approximately 11.5% of Arcellx’s outstanding common stock. The transaction, approved by both companies’ boards, is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to customary conditions including the tender of a majority of outstanding shares, regulatory approvals and other standard closing requirements.
If completed, the acquisition would eliminate profit-sharing, milestone payments and royalty obligations tied to the existing collaboration, streamlining economics as Gilead prepares for potential commercialization.
The timing is notable. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has accepted the Biologics License Application (BLA) for anito-cel as a fourth-line treatment for adult patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma. The application is supported by results from a Phase 1 study and the pivotal Phase 2 iMMagine1 trial. The FDA has set a Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA) target action date of December 23, 2026.
In clinical studies to date, anito-cel has demonstrated deep and durable responses with a predictable and manageable safety profile, according to company disclosures. Multiple myeloma remains an area of high unmet need, particularly among heavily pretreated patients who often face diminishing responses, increasing toxicity and fewer therapeutic options over time.
Full ownership provides Gilead with greater flexibility to align development strategy, scale manufacturing through Kite, and potentially explore expansion into earlier lines of therapy, subject to clinical outcomes and regulatory review.
Beyond anito-cel, Gilead is also acquiring Arcellx’s D-Domain CAR platform, which has generated proprietary target-binding domains designed to improve specificity and binding affinity. The platform may support future CAR T-cell programs, bispecific constructs and in vivo cell therapy approaches, further strengthening Gilead’s oncology pipeline.
Management indicated that, upon FDA approval of anito-cel, the proposed transaction is expected to be accretive to earnings per share in 2028 and thereafter.
For investors, the acquisition highlights a broader trend in large-cap biotech capital deployment. Established companies are increasingly seeking full ownership of late-stage oncology assets to simplify economics, reduce long-term partnership obligations and consolidate strategic control ahead of potential commercialization milestones.
Cell therapy remains one of the most capital-intensive areas of oncology, requiring specialized manufacturing, logistics and commercial infrastructure. Gilead’s move signals confidence in both the asset and its ability to integrate development and commercialization within its existing cell therapy platform.
The next key inflection point will be the FDA’s review decision later this year, which will shape the commercial trajectory of anito-cel and the long-term impact of the acquisition.
The US economy ended 2025 on a weaker-than-expected note.
New data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed GDP grew at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in the fourth quarter, well below economist expectations for 2.9% growth. The miss marks a notable slowdown from earlier in the year and caps full-year 2025 growth at 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024.
A key culprit: government spending.
Federal outlays fell sharply during the quarter, reflecting the impact of the 43-day government shutdown that spanned October and November. Overall government spending declined at a 5.1% annualized rate, subtracting 0.9 percentage points from headline GDP. Federal spending alone plunged 16.6%, shaving 1.15 percentage points off growth.
President Trump, posting on Truth Social ahead of the release, argued the shutdown cost the economy “at least two points in GDP” and renewed calls for lower interest rates.
Under the Surface: Not All Weakness
Despite the headline disappointment, underlying private-sector demand remained more resilient.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers — a key gauge of core demand — rose 2.4%, only slightly below the prior quarter’s 2.9% pace. Private fixed investment increased 2.6%, supported by continued spending on intellectual property and information processing equipment.
The AI build-out remains a meaningful contributor to growth. Spending on information processing equipment added 0.65 percentage points to GDP in the quarter, while investment in intellectual property products rose at a 7.4% pace.
However, consumer behavior showed signs of divergence. Services spending grew 3.4%, while goods spending fell 0.1%, underscoring a continued rotation away from physical goods.
What This Means for Small-Cap Stocks
For small- and micro-cap investors, the implications are layered.
First, government spending volatility tends to disproportionately impact smaller companies with federal exposure. Contractors, niche defense suppliers, and specialized service providers may have felt the brunt of delayed payments or paused contracts during the shutdown.
Second, slower headline GDP growth can pressure investor sentiment toward riskier asset classes — and small caps often sit at the front of that risk spectrum. The Russell 2000 historically reacts more sharply to growth scares than large-cap indices.
But there’s another side.
If economists are correct that shutdown-related drag reverses in the first quarter — with some forecasts calling for 3% growth in early 2026 — small caps could benefit from a rebound narrative. Lower rates, which the administration continues to push for, would also ease capital constraints for smaller companies that rely more heavily on credit markets.
And the ongoing AI investment cycle may continue to support smaller industrial, semiconductor-adjacent, and specialty tech names tied to infrastructure build-outs.
Bottom Line
The Q4 GDP miss highlights how policy disruptions can ripple through the broader economy. While headline growth slowed, core private demand and investment remain intact.
For small-cap investors, volatility may persist in the near term — but a rebound in government activity and continued capital investment could shift the narrative quickly in early 2026.
Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Q4 results. Q4 revenue of $770 million was modestly below our estimate of $778 million, driven by ongoing softness in the Commercial segment, while adj. EBITDA of $50 million exceeded our estimate of $41 million as cost performance improved, resulting in a 6.5% adj. EBITDA margin.
New CEO outlines action plan. CEO Harsha V. Agadi outlined a framework centered on faster decision-making, reduced organizational complexity, and a “fix, sell, or grow” review of every business unit, with emphasis on financial discipline, cost reduction, and converting the pipeline into sustainable organic revenue and EBITDA growth.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Kelly (Nasdaq: KELYA, KELYB) connects talented people to companies in need of their skills in areas including Science, Engineering, Education, Office, Contact Center, Light Industrial, and more. We’re always thinking about what’s next in the evolving world of work, and we help people ditch the script on old ways of thinking and embrace the value of all workstyles in the workplace. We directly employ nearly 350,000 people around the world and connect thousands more with work through our global network of talent suppliers and partners in our outsourcing and consulting practice. Revenue in 2021 was $4.9 billion. Visit kellyservices.com and let us help with what’s next for you.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Overview. Kelly’s fourth quarter continued to be impacted by many of the same trends evident in previous quarters, most notably discrete impacts associated with reduced demand for U.S. federal government contractors and from three large commercial customers. Employers continue to take a cautious approach to hiring amid a mixed labor market. However, the Company was able to capitalize on positive trends in each of the segments.
4Q25 Results. Revenue was $1.05 billion, down 11.9% y-o-y, but down only 3.9% excluding the discrete impacts associated with reduced demand for U.S. federal government contractors and from three large commercial customers. Gross margin declined 150 bps to 18.8%. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $12 million, or a 2.0% margin, compared to $43.5 million, or 3.7% margin, last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.16 versus $0.79 in 4Q24.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
American consumers received welcome news to start 2026 as inflation slowed more than anticipated in January, offering fresh optimism about the economy’s trajectory and easing concerns about rising prices that have plagued households for years.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that the Consumer Price Index rose just 0.2% in January from the previous month, with annual inflation declining to 2.4% from December’s 2.7%. The figures came in below economist expectations of a 0.3% monthly increase and 2.5% annual rise, marking encouraging progress in the ongoing battle against elevated prices.
Core Inflation Hits Multi-Year Low
Perhaps most significantly, core inflation—which strips out volatile food and energy costs to reveal underlying price trends—registered its slowest annual increase since March 2021. Core prices climbed 2.5% over the past year while rising 0.3% month-over-month, both meeting expectations but signaling sustained moderation in inflationary pressures.
The positive inflation data represented the second encouraging economic report this week. Wednesday’s employment figures showed unemployment ticking downward while payrolls expanded at double the anticipated pace, suggesting the economy remains resilient even as price pressures ease.
Economic analysts noted that the softer-than-expected reading was particularly noteworthy given historical patterns. Recent years have typically seen inflation spike unexpectedly in January due to residual seasonal factors and delayed price adjustments stemming from pandemic-era disruptions. The absence of these typical January surprises suggests that tariff-induced price increases on goods may be largely complete, offering hope for more stable pricing ahead.
Despite the overall positive trends, certain categories continue challenging household budgets. Food prices climbed 2.9% annually, with cereals and bakery products jumping 1.2% in January alone. Coffee and beef prices remained especially elevated throughout the past year, though beef and veal saw a modest 0.4% monthly decline. Egg prices, another closely watched staple, dropped 7% after surging in recent months.
Energy costs provided significant relief, falling 1.5% in January as fuel oil plunged 5.7% and gasoline decreased 3.2%. The national average for regular gasoline now sits at $2.94, down from $3.16 a year ago, according to AAA data.
Housing costs, the largest component of most household budgets, rose 0.2% monthly and 3% annually. While still elevated, the shelter index increased at half December’s pace, potentially signaling improvement ahead for renters and homeowners alike.
Analysts had closely watched January’s data for signs of tariff-related price increases following President Trump’s sweeping levies implemented last year. While some tariff-sensitive categories showed increases—apparel rose 0.3%, video and audio products jumped 2.2%, and computers climbed 3.1%—the overall impact appeared muted.
Economic forecasters had anticipated that core goods prices would accelerate from December levels due to increased tariff pass-through effects and typical seasonal patterns that push January inflation higher. However, the fact that core goods prices remained unchanged in January suggests that tariffs and unseasonably large price hikes were not significant drivers of the monthly inflation reading.
One notable exception: airline fares surged 6.5% monthly, meaning travelers may want to consider road trips over flights in the near term. Used car prices, meanwhile, slid 1.8%, offering potential savings for vehicle shoppers.
The cooler-than-expected inflation data strengthens the case for continued economic stability as 2026 unfolds, though Federal Reserve policymakers will carefully monitor upcoming reports before making decisions about interest rates.
The US government posted a $95 billion budget deficit in January, marking a sharp improvement from the same month a year earlier as revenue gains — including a surge in customs duties — outpaced modest growth in federal spending.
According to data released by the Treasury Department, January’s deficit was $34 billion lower than in January 2025, a decline of 26%. After adjusting for routine calendar-related payment shifts, including benefit disbursements affected by weekends and holidays, the deficit would have been just $30 billion — a 63% drop from the comparable period last year.
Government receipts totaled $560 billion in January, an increase of $47 billion, or 9%, compared with a year earlier. Meanwhile, federal outlays reached $655 billion, up $13 billion, or 2%. Both receipts and spending set records for the month of January, reflecting the continued expansion of the federal government’s revenue base and spending obligations. Despite the record figures, the deficit itself was not a record for the month.
The narrowing gap reflects stronger revenue performance relative to spending growth, a dynamic that has also carried into the broader fiscal year. Through the first four months of fiscal 2026, which began October 1, the deficit totaled $697 billion — down $143 billion, or 17%, from the same period in fiscal 2025.
Year-to-date receipts have climbed to $1.785 trillion, up 12% from the prior year period, while outlays have increased more modestly, rising 2% to $2.482 trillion. Both figures represent records for the first four months of a fiscal year, though the cumulative deficit is not historically unprecedented.
A significant driver of the revenue increase has been a surge in customs duties tied to tariffs implemented under President Donald Trump. Net customs receipts totaled $27.7 billion in January, roughly in line with December levels and only slightly below the approximately $30 billion monthly pace recorded late last year. By comparison, customs duties in January 2025 — before the administration’s tariff measures were announced — stood at just $7.3 billion.
On a fiscal year-to-date basis, net customs duties have reached $117.7 billion, a dramatic rise from $28.2 billion during the same period last year. The sharp increase underscores the growing role tariffs are playing in federal revenue collection.
Another factor contributing to January’s improved deficit figure was a rare decline in Treasury interest payments. Interest outlays on the public debt fell by $12 billion to $72 billion for the month. Treasury officials attributed the drop to technical adjustments related to inflation-linked securities, with some payments affected by last year’s government shutdown and delayed consumer price index data.
However, despite the January dip, interest costs remain elevated overall. Through the first four months of fiscal 2026, interest payments on the national debt have totaled $426 billion — a record for that period and up 9% from a year earlier.
While January’s improved deficit provides a measure of fiscal relief, the broader picture remains complex. Revenues are rising at a healthy pace, aided in part by tariffs, but interest costs continue to consume a growing share of federal spending. Whether the current trend of revenue outpacing spending can be sustained will depend on economic growth, inflation trends, and future policy decisions in Washington.
The strategic allure of the U.S. Healthcare and Life Sciences (HCLS) market—as detailed in our previous installments—is undeniable. However, for a European acquirer, the transition from “Strategic Intent” to “Value Realization” requires successfully navigating a regulatory landscape that is currently undergoing its most significant shift in decades. In 2026, the complexity of this “maze” has intensified, driven by a post-shutdown FDA backlog, a new era of “relative” data privacy standards, and aggressive national security oversight.
To preserve deal value, European buyers must move beyond traditional check-the-box compliance and adopt a multidisciplinary approach to regulatory due diligence.
The “Regulatory Velocity” Hurdle: Navigating the Post-Shutdown FDA
The 43-day U.S. federal government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, 2025, created a significant “bow wave” of administrative delays that continues to impact 2026 product launch timelines. While the FDA has resumed full operations, the “review clock” for many pending 510(k) and PMA submissions was effectively frozen for over a month, as the agency lacked the legal authority to accept new user-fee-bearing applications during the lapse.
For an investment banker or operational expert, this isn’t just a compliance issue—it’s a valuation variable. European buyers must now conduct “Regulatory Velocity Diligence.” It is no longer enough to confirm that a target has a clean filing; you must assess where that filing sits in the current backlog. It is critical to differentiate between submissions funded by “Carryover User Fees”—which may have continued to move—and those reliant on “New Appropriations” that stalled. A delayed 510(k) or PMA approval can shift a valuation model by six to twelve months, fundamentally altering the deal’s ROI.
Data Governance: The New “Relative” Standard (GDPR vs. HIPAA)
Transatlantic data transfers have long been the “third rail” of HCLS M&A. However, a landmark September 4, 2025, ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) in EDPS v. SRB has introduced a strategic “middle path” for European acquirers.
The court confirmed the concept of “Relative Personal Data.” In practice, this means that sufficiently pseudonymized data may be considered “personal data” for the U.S. seller (who holds the key) but not for the European recipient, provided the recipient cannot reasonably re-identify the individuals.
This is a massive win for M&A efficiency. European firms can now conduct more granular R&D and clinical trial diligence on U.S. assets without immediately triggering full GDPR liability, provided that strict technical and contractual “anti-identification” measures are in place. This “Privacy by Design” approach allows for faster integration of R&D pipelines while remaining compliant with both the EU’s strict privacy mandates and the U.S. HIPAA framework.
Beyond HIPAA: The State-Level Patchwork
While HIPAA provides a federal floor for data protection, European buyers often underestimate the complexity of state-level privacy laws. States like Texas have increasingly utilized their own statutory frameworks—such as the Texas Data Privacy and Security Act—to enforce standards that can overlap or even conflict with federal guidance.
For an Attorney, the risk lies in the “most restrictive” standard. If a target operates in multiple states, the integration team must ensure that data governance policies satisfy the most aggressive state regulator, not just the federal baseline. In the current 2026 climate, state-level enforcement is a primary driver of post-close litigation risk.
Safeguarding the Pipeline: The “Small Biotech” Exception
The 2026 Medicare drug price negotiations represent a seismic shift in U.S. reimbursement. However, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) includes a critical “Safe Harbor” for mid-market innovators: the Small Biotech Exception.
For European firms acquiring U.S. targets, verifying this status is paramount. If a drug’s Medicare Part D expenditure is less than or equal to 1% of total Part D expenditures, and the drug accounts for at least 80% of the manufacturer’s total sales, it may be exempt from negotiations until 2029. This provides a vital “valuation shield” for R&D pipelines, ensuring that the expected “Maximum Fair Price” (MFP) does not erode the deal’s long-term ROI.
The New CFIUS: National Security in Healthcare
The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) has significantly expanded its footprint throughout 2025 and 2026. While European allies often benefit from “excepted investor” status, HCLS deals involving large-scale U.S. patient data, biotech IP, or critical medical supply chain manufacturing are increasingly being flagged for national security reviews.
The strategy for 2026 is “Pre-emptive Transparency.” Buyers should evaluate whether a voluntary “Declaration” is safer than a full “Notice” to achieve deal-close certainty. In an era of heightened geopolitical sensitivity, the “health” of the target’s IP is as much a matter of national security as it is of clinical success.
Conclusion
Navigating the U.S. regulatory maze in 2026 requires a shift from defensive compliance to offensive strategy. By mastering the nuances of “Relative Data,” factoring in “Regulatory Velocity,” and identifying “Small Biotech” safe harbors, European acquirers can turn regulatory complexity into a competitive advantage.
In our next installment, we move from the ‘Legal Maze’ to the ‘Financial Truth,’ exploring the unique hurdles of U.S. GAAP vs. IFRS reconciliation and the art of the HCLS Quality of Earnings report.
About the Authors:
Nathan Caliis a Managing Partner atNoble Capital Marketswith more than 18 years of Capital Markets experience. He has been a lead Managing Director/Head of the Healthcare and Life Sciences Investment Banking and Advisory franchise at NOBLE since 2017 and was previously a sell-side equity analyst for 9 years. Nathan is a Board Member of Precise Bio, a tissue engineering, biomaterials, and cell technologies company, including cardiology, orthopedics, and dermatology. He was previously a board observer of Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN:NASDAQ, f.k.n.a. Anelixis Therapeutics, Inc.), a phase II biotechnology company. Prior to joining NOBLE, Nathan gained investment experience as a portfolio account analyst/manager at Franklin Templeton Investments. Nathan also currently holds series 7, 79, 86, and 87 FINRA designations.
Hinesh Patel, MCMI ChMCis a Partner in CNM LLP’sLos Angeles Office with over 20 years of experience in accounting. He leads and oversees the firm’s Accounting and Transaction Advisory practice. He brings a vast knowledge of US GAAP, technical accounting, and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) reporting requirements to his role at CNM. Hinesh primarily focuses on technical accounting, IPO readiness, SEC reporting, and mergers and acquisitions. Prior to joining CNM, Hinesh worked as a Senior Manager at Deloitte with a primary focus in the technology, manufacturing, consumer business and entertainment industries for both public and private companies. He has assisted various companies through the IPO process and advised on a range of accounting services including technical accounting, financial reporting, and new business processes requirements.
Matthew (Matt) Podowitzis the founder and Principal Consultant ofPathfinder Advisors LLC, bringing experience on 400+ global M&A engagements to his clients. He specializes in the critical operational and technology aspects of M&A transactions, providing due diligence, carve-out, integration, and value creation services. Known for practical, actionable advice derived from extensive hands-on experience with healthcare and life sciences transactions, Matt helps companies, investment banks, and private equity firms navigate complex cross-border HCLS M&A through every step of the transaction lifecycle. Leveraging his perspective as a dual US/EU citizen, he provides seamless support for transactions in both markets. His background includes leadership roles at firms like Ernst & Young, Grant Thornton, and CFGI.
Chris Raphaelyis the Co-Chair ofCozen O’Connor’sHealth Care & Life Sciences Practice where he provides sophisticated transactional and regulatory counsel to an array of health care providers and investors in the health care industry. His practice focuses on mergers, acquisitions, and divestiture transactions for health care clients and the comprehensive regulatory schemes requisite to doing business in the health care space. Chris routinely handles matters involving payer negotiations, payment disputes and contract enforcement, accountable care organizations, management services organization, clinically integrated networks, value based payment arrangements, pharmacy benefit management and third party administrator contracts for self-insured employers, digital health, organizational and governance structures, HIPAA, information privacy and security, tax exemption, Stark Law, fraud and abuse matters, clinical integration, medical staff relations, facility and professional licensing, Pennsylvania’s Medical Marijuana Act, and general compliance. Prior to joining the firm, Chris served as the deputy general counsel to Jefferson Health System and general counsel to the system’s accountable care organization and captive professional liability insurance companies.
Federal Reserve officials are increasingly signaling that interest rates may remain unchanged for an extended period as policymakers evaluate whether inflation is cooling enough to justify further adjustments. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack said this week that the central bank’s current policy stance is well positioned to remain steady while officials analyze incoming economic data and the lingering effects of prior rate cuts.
Hammack indicated that monetary policy is close to neutral, meaning it is no longer significantly restraining economic activity. After cutting rates three times last fall, the Federal Reserve has shifted into a wait-and-see mode, focused on determining whether those moves are sufficient to guide inflation back toward its long-term target without risking renewed price pressures.
Inflation remains the central concern. While price growth has slowed from its post-pandemic highs, Hammack noted that inflation has largely moved sideways for more than two years and could remain near 3% throughout 2026. That level is still well above the Fed’s 2% goal, raising the risk that inflation could become more entrenched if policymakers ease too quickly. As a result, she emphasized the need for clear and sustained evidence that inflation is decisively trending lower before considering further rate cuts.
Rather than attempting to fine-tune policy in response to short-term data fluctuations, Hammack expressed a preference for patience. She highlighted the importance of fully assessing the economic impact of last year’s rate reductions, as well as broader trends in growth, consumer demand, and financial conditions. At present, she views the risks of rates needing to move higher or lower as roughly balanced.
Cost pressures facing businesses remain a key area of focus. Hammack said tariffs have increased input costs for many companies, with some already passing those expenses on to consumers and others signaling additional price increases ahead. She also pointed to rising electricity and health insurance costs as factors that could keep inflation elevated. Taken together, these pressures make it difficult to determine whether inflation has fully peaked.
The labor market, however, appears to be on more stable footing. With the unemployment rate at 4.4%, conditions have changed little since last fall. Indicators suggest that job openings and job seekers are largely in balance, while initial claims for unemployment insurance remain low. Although some firms have announced layoffs, overall levels of job cuts remain in line with historical norms.
Looking ahead, Hammack expects economic growth to strengthen over the course of the year. She cited the delayed effects of last year’s rate cuts and ongoing fiscal support as factors that could encourage businesses to resume investment and expansion plans. Stronger growth, in turn, could support hiring and gradually push unemployment lower.
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady last month in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Hammack’s comments reinforce the view that policymakers are in no rush to alter policy, signaling that interest rates could remain on hold well into the year as the Fed waits for inflation to show more convincing signs of easing.
Strengthens Global IP Portfolio for PrimeC Through 2042
CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Feb. 9, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — NeuroSense Therapeutics Ltd. (Nasdaq: NRSN) (“NeuroSense”), a late-clinical stage biotechnology company developing novel treatments for severe neurodegenerative diseases, today announced that the Australian Patent Office (IP Australia) has granted Australian Patent No. 2022370513, entitled “Compositions Comprising Ciprofloxacin and Celecoxib,” representing another strategic step in the continued expansion of the Company’s global intellectual property protection for PrimeC.
The granted Australian patent, following prior approval of the corresponding U.S. patent (12,097,185), further expands NeuroSense’s patent protection across key global markets and reinforces the Company’s exclusivity strategy for PrimeC, with patent coverage extending through October 2042. NeuroSense continues to strengthen the company’s global intellectual property estate and to support the long-term development and potential commercialization of PrimeC in ALS, Alzheimer’s disease and other neurodegenerative indications.
“Securing patent protection in Australia, in addition to the already granted patent in the US, is an important step in executing our global IP protection strategy for PrimeC,” said Alon Ben-Noon, Chief Executive Officer of NeuroSense. “As we advance PrimeC toward pivotal development and potential commercialization, building a broad, durable IP estate across major jurisdictions is central to supporting long-term value creation.”
PrimeC is a proprietary fixed-dose oral therapy combining ciprofloxacin and celecoxib in a synchronized, extended-release formulation specifically engineered to deliver both agents in a coordinated manner – a key differentiator versus simple co-administration. The formulation enables consistent exposure across multiple disease pathways implicated in ALS, including neuroinflammation, iron dysregulation, and miRNA dysregulation, supporting a multi-target disease-modifying approach.
PrimeC is Phase 3-ready in ALS, following positive Phase 2b PARADIGM results and FDA clearance of the pivotal Phase 3 protocol.
About NeuroSense
NeuroSense Therapeutics, Ltd. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on discovering and developing treatments for patients suffering from debilitating neurodegenerative diseases. NeuroSense believes that these diseases, which include amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), Alzheimer’s disease and Parkinson’s disease, among others, represent one of the most significant unmet medical needs of our time, with limited effective therapeutic options available for patients to date. Due to the complexity of neurodegenerative diseases and based on strong scientific research on a large panel of related biomarkers, NeuroSense’s strategy is to develop combined therapies targeting multiple pathways associated with these diseases.
For additional information, we invite you to visit our website and follow us on LinkedIn, YouTube and X. Information that may be important to investors may be routinely posted on our website and these social media channels.
About PrimeC
PrimeC, NeuroSense’s lead drug candidate, is a novel extended-release oral formulation composed of a unique fixed-dose combination of two FDA-approved drugs: ciprofloxacin and celecoxib. PrimeC is designed to synergistically target several key mechanisms of ALS and AD, that contribute to neuron degeneration, inflammation, iron accumulation and impaired ribonucleic acid (“RNA”) regulation to potentially inhibit the progression of ALS and AD.
About ALS
Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (“ALS”) is an incurable neurodegenerative disease that causes complete paralysis and death within 2-5 years from diagnosis. Every year, more than 5,000 people are diagnosed with ALS in the U.S. alone, with an annual disease burden of $1 billion. The number of people living with ALS is expected to grow by 24% by 2040 in the U.S. and EU.
About Alzheimer’s Disease Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder and the leading cause of dementia worldwide, affecting more than 30 million people globally. AD is characterized by memory loss, cognitive decline, and behavioral changes, and currently has no cure. Existing therapies provide only limited symptomatic relief, leaving a significant unmet need for disease-modifying treatments that can slow or halt progression. Given the complexity of AD, approaches that target multiple disease mechanisms simultaneously, such as PrimeC, hold potential to deliver meaningful therapeutic advances for patients and their families.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains “forward-looking statements” that are subject to substantial risks and uncertainties. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, contained in this press release are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements contained in this press release may be identified by the use of words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “contemplate,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “seek,” “may,” “might,” “plan,” “potential,” “predict,” “project,” “target,” “aim,” “should,” “will” “would,” or the negative of these words or other similar expressions, although not all forward-looking statements contain these words. Forward-looking statements are based on NeuroSense Therapeutics’ current expectations and are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks and assumptions that are difficult to predict and include statements regarding the timing of regulatory filings, meetings and regulatory decisions. Further, certain forward-looking statements, including statements regarding the length of patent coverage, are based on assumptions as to future events that may not prove to be accurate. The future events and trends may not occur and actual results could differ materially and adversely from those anticipated or implied in the forward looking statements. These risks include the uncertainty regarding outcomes and the timing of current and future clinical trials; timing for reporting data, including from the study of PrimeC in Alzheimer’s disease; that the study will not be successful; the ability of NeuroSense to remain listed on Nasdaq; and other risks and uncertainties set forth in NeuroSense’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). You should not rely on these statements as representing our views in the future. More information about the risks and uncertainties affecting NeuroSense is contained under the heading “Risk Factors” in the Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on April 7, 2025 and NeuroSense’s subsequent filings with the SEC. Forward-looking statements contained in this announcement are made as of this date, and NeuroSense undertakes no duty to update such information except as required under applicable law.
Elon Musk has never been shy about bending corporate structure to his will, but his latest move may be the most audacious of his career. By merging SpaceX with xAI, Musk has created a $1.25 trillion private colossus, instantly making it the most valuable private company in history — and rescuing a cash-hungry AI venture in the process.
The deal folds Musk’s dominant rocket maker, his lossmaking artificial intelligence startup xAI, and the social media platform X into a single vertically integrated entity. Musk framed the merger as a necessary step toward launching data centers into orbit, building factories on the Moon, and ultimately colonizing Mars. Supporters see visionary logic. Critics see financial engineering on a historic scale.
At the heart of the transaction is SpaceX’s balance sheet. The company, now marked up to a $1 trillion valuation, generates roughly $16 billion in annual revenue, driven by its near-monopoly on commercial rocket launches and the rapid expansion of its Starlink satellite broadband business. That steady cash flow and investor confidence gave Musk the leverage to absorb xAI, which reportedly burns around $1 billion per month as it races to build advanced AI models and massive data centers.
Under the terms of the deal, SpaceX will acquire xAI for $250 billion, matching the valuation implied by a recent funding round. xAI shareholders will receive SpaceX stock at roughly a seven-to-one exchange ratio, with the combined entity priced at $527 per share. Investors were briefed on hurried calls, with many reportedly blindsided by both the speed and the scale of the merger.
The strategic rationale is straightforward: AI’s biggest bottlenecks are energy, compute, and data — areas where Musk already has deep assets. SpaceX provides launch capability and satellite infrastructure, Starlink delivers global connectivity, X contributes a vast real-time data stream, and xAI supplies the models. In theory, the combination creates a self-reinforcing ecosystem few competitors can match.
Yet the risks are just as real. xAI’s revenues remain in the low hundreds of millions, far behind rivals like OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic. Folding such a capital-intensive, lossmaking business into SpaceX complicates a planned June IPO, which could raise as much as $50 billion. Existing SpaceX shareholders will be diluted as the company issues new shares to fund the acquisition — a move that has unsettled some long-term investors.
Still, Musk has a long track record of forcing through controversial deals. His 2016 acquisition of SolarCity using Tesla stock faced years of litigation, yet ultimately rewarded shareholders who stayed the course. Many investors believe this is another example of Musk using his control, credibility, and cult-like investor loyalty to move faster than governance norms would typically allow.
The broader market implication is clear: Musk is racing to position his empire at the center of the AI arms race, even if it means rewriting the rules of valuation along the way. Whether this $1.25 trillion gamble proves visionary or reckless will depend on whether xAI can convert ambition into revenue — before investor patience runs out.
President Trump’s nomination of former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to lead the US central bank marks a pivotal moment for monetary policy, with markets immediately turning their focus to what his leadership could mean for interest rates in 2026 and beyond. While Warsh is viewed as a conventional and credible pick, his appointment could subtly — and eventually materially — shift the Federal Reserve’s policy direction.
If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh would step into a deeply divided Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The 19-member body has recently signaled openness to a prolonged pause after delivering three rate cuts last fall, with many policymakers believing those moves sufficiently addressed slowing job growth. Convincing the committee to resume cutting rates will be one of Warsh’s earliest and most consequential challenges.
Economists broadly agree that Warsh is inclined to argue for lower rates, but that persuasion — not authority — will determine outcomes. “Special deference to the chair only goes so far,” said JPMorgan chief economist Michael Feroli, noting that past chairs often succeeded by positioning themselves near the committee’s center rather than pushing an ideological edge. Deutsche Bank’s Matt Luzzetti echoed that view, arguing that further rate cuts are unlikely unless inflation eases materially or the labor market weakens again.
Warsh’s case for lower rates rests on a structural argument: that artificial intelligence will meaningfully boost productivity, suppress inflation, and allow the economy to grow faster without overheating. Like Trump, Warsh rejects the idea that inflation is primarily driven by strong wage growth. Instead, he has consistently blamed excessive government spending and monetary expansion. He also believes tariffs represent one-off price shocks rather than persistent inflationary forces — a view increasingly shared within the Fed.
Still, Warsh’s recent dovish tone contrasts with his long-standing hawkish reputation. Historically, he opposed extended bond-buying programs outside crisis conditions and warned that balance sheet expansion risked distorting markets and fueling inflation. Notably, he did not support a rate cut as recently as September 2024. In more recent remarks, however, Warsh has suggested that shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet could help bring inflation down, creating room for lower policy rates.
That reputation for independence may actually work in Warsh’s favor. Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha argues that because Warsh is seen as hawkish and credible, he may be better positioned than other contenders to bring the FOMC along for at least two — and possibly three — rate cuts this year if conditions allow. In other words, Warsh may have more room to pivot without undermining the Fed’s inflation-fighting credibility.
President Trump has been careful to publicly respect the Fed’s independence, saying he did not seek a commitment from Warsh to cut rates, even though he believes Warsh favors doing so. That balance — political alignment without overt pressure — will be closely scrutinized by lawmakers during Warsh’s confirmation process, which could face hurdles amid broader tensions surrounding the Fed and ongoing investigations tied to Powell’s tenure.
Looking further ahead, questions remain about how Warsh would respond if productivity gains disappoint or inflation reaccelerates, particularly under loose fiscal policy. Some economists believe his current dovish posture could prove flexible — or temporary — especially after midterm elections and deeper into a second Trump term.
For now, Warsh’s nomination signals continuity with a twist: a Fed chair with crisis experience, institutional credibility, and a growing belief that the economy can sustain lower rates without reigniting inflation. Whether he can translate that belief into consensus may define both his chairmanship and the next phase of US monetary policy.
