U.S. stocks slipped on Friday as investors locked in profits heading into the long weekend, but the pullback wasn’t enough to erase August’s gains. The S&P 500 retreated 0.7% after notching a fresh record earlier in the week, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 123 points, or 0.3%.
Despite the losses, August remains another winning month for equities. The Dow is tracking a roughly 3% gain, the S&P 500 is up nearly 2%, and the Nasdaq has advanced more than 1%. That would mark the fourth consecutive month of gains for the broad market index, underscoring investor resilience even as inflation data and policy uncertainty remain in focus.
A key driver of Friday’s caution was the latest reading of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose 2.9% year-over-year in July, matching expectations but accelerating from the prior month. The increase, the highest since February, highlighted ongoing price pressures just as the Fed prepares for its September policy meeting.
While inflation remains sticky, market consensus still points to a rate cut next month. Analysts note that the Fed is increasingly balancing inflation concerns against signs of cooling in the labor market. For now, many strategists believe the central bank will move forward with a cut, although the pace and magnitude of easing remain open questions.
Friday’s weakness also came against the backdrop of strong recent performance, leading some to view the decline as simple profit-taking. The S&P 500 had just closed above the 6,500 level for the first time, and investors often trim positions after fresh highs ahead of holiday weekends.
Earnings season added another layer to the cautious mood. Nvidia, which recently reported 56% revenue growth and reaffirmed its position at the center of the AI trade, slid 3% as traders digested headlines about China’s Alibaba developing a more advanced chip. The update raised questions about long-term competition and underscored the geopolitical risks surrounding U.S. technology exports.
Elsewhere, tariff worries resurfaced after Caterpillar warned of a potential $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion hit this year from new U.S. trade measures. Retailer Gap also flagged pressure on profits, highlighting how trade policy remains a headwind for corporate America.
Looking ahead, September looms as a potential test for the rally. Historically, the month has been the weakest for stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a 0.7% decline since 1950, according to The Stock Trader’s Almanac. Bespoke Investment Group notes that the index has posted especially lackluster September performances over the past decade.
Still, momentum heading into the new month suggests investors are willing to look past near-term headwinds. With inflation cooling gradually, the Fed leaning toward easing, and earnings broadly holding up, the market may find support even as seasonal trends turn less favorable.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 29, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – Throws A Curve Ball, But Delivers A Strike!
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$10.46 | Price Target: $17.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Throws A Curve Ball, But Delivers A Strike! Rating: OUTPERFORM
A solid finish to the year. The company beat our fiscal Q4 revenue and adj. EBITDA estimates, culminating in a transitional fiscal full year 2025 with improving revenue trends. Total Q4 revenues of $318.0 million, beat our $292.0 million estimate, and adj. EBITDA of $88.7 million was better than our $83.0 million estimate.
Improving revenue trends. Same store revenues, while down 4.1%, reflecting sequential monthly improvement from the down 6% in April, negative 3% in May and flat in June. Management indicated that same store revenue trends were up over 1% in July.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 27, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – More Potential Opportunity
V2X (VVX/$58 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 More Potential Opportunity Rating: OUTPERFORM
Another Seat. V2X, through its Vertex Aerospace unit, was awarded a seat on the Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program. CTR is a combined $3.5 billion ID/IQ multiple award vehicle, according to the Department of Defense daily awards notice. This award adds to V2X’s strong opportunity potential, in our view.
CTR. CTR is a ten-year cost-plus-fixed-fee, cost, cost-plus-award-fee, cost-plus-incentive-fee, firm-fixed-price, firm-fixed-price-level of effort, and time-and-materials contract. This contract will deliver a broad range of services and products to provide sustainable chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear threat reduction capabilities to partner nations. The CTR Program partners with willing countries to reduce the threat from weapons of mass destruction and related materials, technologies, facilities, and expertise.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 26, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Two New Vessels to be Delivered in 2028 Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Some Additional Work & Delivery of the Amelia Island The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Some Estate Planning Moves
Euroseas (ESEA/$62.04 | Price Target: $71) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Two New Vessels to be Delivered in 2028 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Two new orders. Euroseas Ltd. executed a contract for the construction of two modern fuel-efficient 4,300 twenty-foot-equivalent unit container vessels that are expected to be delivered in March and May of 2028. The vessels will cost approximately $59.25 million each and will be financed with a combination of debt and equity. Currently, Euroseas has a fleet of 22 vessels, including 15 feeder containerships and seven intermediate containerships, with a cargo capacity of 67,494 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). After the sale of the M/V Marcos V and the delivery of four intermediate containerships in 2027 and 2028, Euroseas’ fleet will consist of 25 vessels with a total carrying capacity of 78,344 TEU.
Commitment to growth and modernization. The most recent orders demonstrate Euroseas’ commitment to growing and modernizing its fleet. Management believes that investing in eco intermediate-sized containerships, a segment with a low orderbook and an aging existing fleet, will enhance the company’s competitive position, enable it to capitalize on future market opportunities, and create value for shareholders.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$11.77 | Price Target: $14) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Some Additional Work & Delivery of the Amelia Island Rating: OUTPERFORM
Some Additional Work. According to the daily Department of Defense contract awards notice, Great Lakes continues to receive additional work, adding to an already full scorecard. The recent contract wins highlight the strength of the Company, as well as the overall bid environment, in our view.
Amelia Island. Last week, Great Lakes announced the delivery of its newest Jones Act-compliant hopper dredge, the Amelia Island. This completes the Company’s dredge newbuild program.The Amelia Island is specially designed for efficient and safe operations along shallow and narrow waters throughout all U.S. coastlines. With a full schedule for 2025 and 2026, the dredge will be going immediately to work.
The GEO Group (GEO/$21.03 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Some Estate Planning Moves Rating: OUTPERFORM
Stock Sales. After the market closed yesterday, The GEO Group Executive Chairman George Zoley filed a Form 4 with the Securities and Exchange Commission reporting the sale of GEO shares. We would note the sales were in connection with pre-arranged estate planning that ultimately will result in the sale of 230,918 GEO shares held by Mr. Zoley or trusts held for the benefit of his children.
Details. According to the filing, a total of 72,038 GEO shares were sold on 8/21 and 8/25 at prices ranging from $21.16-$21.72 per share. An additional 75,000 shares were reported sold for estate planning purposes on a Form 4 filed August 20th, with these shares sold at prices ranging from $20.93-$21.72 per share.
Oversubscribed private placement. Aurania raised gross proceeds of C$1,906,355.76 with the issuance of 15,886,298 units at C$0.12 per unit. Each unit is composed of one common share and one common share purchase warrant that entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.25 for 24 months following the date of issuance. Dr. Keith Barron, CEO and director, acquired 5,741,666 units during the offering.
Use of proceeds. Aurania intends to use the net proceeds primarily for exploration programs and general working capital purposes. In our view, the oversubscribed private placement significantly enhances the company’s financial flexibility.
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.17 | Price Target: $0.75) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Pivoting to Revenue and Cash Flow Growth Rating: OUTPERFORM
Accelerated warrant exercise. Nicola Mining Inc. (TSX.V: NIM, OTCQB: HUSIF, FSE: HLIA) reported the accelerated exercise of 2,019,477 share purchase warrants at C$0.40 each, generating C$807,791 in gross proceeds. On July 21, Nicola Mining announced that it was electing to accelerate the expiry of all the outstanding common share purchase warrants originally issued under a financing that closed in March 2025.
Merritt Mill is ramping up production. With 200 tonnes per day of capacity, Nicola’s Merritt Mill is transitioning to full commercial production and cash flow generation. Nicola expects to utilize 100% of the mill’s capacity by the end of the third quarter. In early July, the Merritt Mill began processing ore received from Talisker Resources’ Bralorne project. In addition to processing ore for Talisker, ore is expected to be received during the third quarter from Blue Lagoon’s Dome Mountain gold mine, and from the Dominion Creek Gold Project, of which Nicola owns a 75% economic interest. Cash milling margins of 15% to 18% are expected at full capacity.
SelectQuote (SLQT/$2.59 | Price Target: $7) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Pharmacy Strength Highlights Revenue Stability Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fiscal Q4 beat. SelectQuote posted Q4 revenue of $345.1 million and adj. EBITDA of $2.7 million, beating expectations. Agent productivity improved with AI integration and workflow streamlining. The company navigated Medicare enrollment headwinds by reallocating resources efficiently, demonstrating continued operating discipline across its core platform.
SelectRx paying off. Healthcare Services revenue rose 49% year-over-year to $210.6 million with membership hitting 108,000, up from 82,000 the year prior. Notably segment adj. EBITDA margins of 5.5% are expected to improve throughout fiscal 2026 based on efficiency gains from the Kansas facility and customer maturity.
Government Solutions Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 An ISAP RFP
ISAP RFP. In a somewhat surprising development, Immigration and Customs Enforcement has issued a request for proposals for the fifth iteration of its Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP), with a plan to award a potential $2 billion indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract. Consensus expectations were that an RFP would be released more towards the end of 2025.
Details. The contract will have a maximum performance period of two years, divided into two one-year ordering periods, a significant change from the prior 5-year performance periods. Responses are due by September 1st, a much shorter period than the 6 weeks from the 2019 contract. The contract is scheduled to begin on October 1, 2025.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, August 21, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Newsmax (NMAX)/OUTPERFORM – Riding The Red Wave
Newsmax (NMAX/$12.98 | Price Target: $23) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Riding The Red Wave Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and $23 price target. Newsmax (NYSE: NMAX) is a conservative media company with growing reach across cable and digital platforms. Its national cable channel has evolved into the fourth most-watched cable news network in the U.S, with a loyal core audience and full distribution across major MVPDs and streaming platforms. We believe the company is positioned to unlock a multi-year monetization opportunity across both advertising and affiliate fee revenue streams.
Loyal audience and diversified revenue model. Newsmax serves a highly engaged, politically right-of-center audience that has historically been underserved by mainstream outlets. This loyal viewership has enabled the company to scale both advertising and distribution revenues while maintaining low customer acquisition costs. Since 2019, revenue has grown more than 300%, fueled by steady digital expansion and greater platform reach.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 20, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc. (GLSI)/OUTPERFORM – Initiating Coverage With An Outperform Rating and $45 Price Target Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Building The Foundation For StableCoin
Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc. (GLSI/$11.47 | Price Target: $45) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Initiating Coverage With An Outperform Rating and $45 Price Target Rating: OUTPERFORM
Greenwich LifeSciences Is Developing An Immunotherapy For Prevention Of Breast Cancer Recurrence. Greenwich LifeSciences is a biotechnology company developing GSLI-100, an immunotherapy based on HER2/neu. GLSI-100 completed four clinical trials that lead to the design of the current Phase 3 Flamingo-01 trial. The trial is currently enrolling patients in the US and Europe.
GLSI-100 Is Directed At A Validated Target. GLSI-100 contains GP2, a segment of the HER2/neu (HER2, or human epidermal growth factor receptor 2) receptor found on the surface of breast cancer cells. HER2 is overexpressed in several common cancers, with an estimated 75% of all breast cancers expressing HER2 at some level. Monoclonal antibodies targeting HER2 are the current standard of care for treating certain types of breast cancer.
Snail (SNAL/$0.98 | Price Target: $3.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Building The Foundation For StableCoin Rating: OUTPERFORM
Disappointing Q2. Total company revenues of $22.2 million increased nearly 3% over the prior year earlier period, but was lighter than our $26.0 million estimate. The variance was largely attributable to quality issues of its Aquatica DLC and subsequent disappointing sales. Adj. EBITDA loss of $2.2 million was higher than our slightly positive adj. EBITDA expectation.
Stronger finish to the year expected. While we believe that the company’s product roadmap should significantly improve revenue performance, particularly in Q4, we are lowering our second half and full year 2025 revenue and adj. EBITDA expectations. Based on a 2025 lower revenue base, we are tweaking our 2026 estimates lower, as well.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 19, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – A CEO Transition Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Solid Second Quarter Performance Versus Our Estimates InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Outsized Production, Debt Reduction, and Strategic Alignment Drive Outlook Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP)/OUTPERFORM – Webcast Details Product Attributes and Potential Market
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$20.67 | Price Target: $28) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A CEO Transition Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Transition. CoreCivic announced President and COO Patrick Swindle will succeed current CEO Damon Hininger effective January 1, 2026. As part of the transition, Mr. Hininger and the Company have entered into a transition agreement with an effective date of January 1, 2026. Under the transition agreement, Mr. Hininger will work closely with both Mr. Swindle and Mr. Emkes, as a Special Advisor to the CEO and Chairman, to ensure a smooth transition. Mr. Hininger will resign from CoreCivic’s Board effective January 1, 2026, with Mr. Swindle appointed to fill the vacancy.
Patrick Swindle. Mr. Swindle joined CoreCivic in 2007 as Managing Director, Treasury, and has held numerous positions, including Vice President, Strategic Development; Senior Vice President, Operations; Executive Vice President and Chief Corrections Officer; and Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, before being promoted to President and Chief Operating Officer in January 2025. Prior to joining CoreCivic, Mr. Swindle spent ten years in equity research in the equity capital markets divisions of SunTrust Equitable Securities, Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., and Avondale Partners, LLC.
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.4 | Price Target: $2.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Solid Second Quarter Performance Versus Our Estimates Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second quarter financial results. Hemisphere reported oil and gas revenue of C$24.4 million in the second quarter, down 15.7% from the prior year period but ahead of our estimate of C$20.9 million. Net income was C$7.1 million, or C$0.07 per share, compared to C$10.4 million, or C$0.10 per share, last year, and above our forecast of C$5.8 million, or C$0.06 per share. Average daily production rose to 3,826 boe/d, up from 3,628 in Q2 2024 and modestly ahead of our estimate of 3,800 boe/d. The company realized an average sales price of C$70.06/boe, compared to C$87.65/boe in the prior year quarter. Adjusted funds flow totaled C$10.3 million, or C$0.10 per diluted share, versus C$13.6 million, or C$0.14 per diluted share, a year ago. This result exceeded our estimate of C$8.9 million, or C$0.09 per diluted share.
Updating estimates. Given the stronger-than-expected second quarter, we are raising our 2025 revenue forecast to C$97.7 million from C$95.0 million. Our operating expense assumption has been modestly increased to C$38.8 million from C$38.4 million. We now project net income of C$29.6 million, or C$0.30 per share, up from our prior forecast of C$28.7 million, or C$0.28 per share. Adjusted funds flow is expected to reach C$43.3 million, compared to our earlier estimate of C$42.2 million. For 2026, we forecast revenue of C$93.7 million, net income of C$27.5 million, or C$0.28 per share, and AFF of C$39.6 million, reflecting our expectation of a softer commodity price environment relative to 2025.
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$8.11 | Price Target: $15) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Outsized Production, Debt Reduction, and Strategic Alignment Drive Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second quarter financial results. InPlay Oil reported Q2 2025 revenue of C$91.6 million, above our estimate of C$87.9 million, driven by stronger-than-expected production of 20,401 boe/d compared to our forecast of 19,000 boe/d. The company recorded a net loss of C$3.2 million, versus net income of C$5.4 million in the prior-year period. On an adjusted basis, which excludes C$10.1 million in transaction and integration costs and reflects C$4.9 million in hedging gains, net income was C$2.0 million. Adjusted funds flow totaled C$40.1 million, or C$1.49 per share, ahead of our forecast of C$38.6 million, or C$1.38 per share.
2025 Guidance. Despite strong second-quarter production and AFF growth, management maintained full-year 2025 guidance across all metrics, noting that output is now expected to reach the upper end of the range. With oil prices still subdued, the company remains focused on maximizing free cash flow, materially reducing debt, and returning capital to shareholders, while benefiting from robust post-acquisition production levels.
Management Discussed Plans For Marketing and Launch. Following the FDA approval of Tonmya (or TNXP-102 SL) on August 15, Tonix held a webcast to discuss plans for marketing and sales in advance of its 4Q25 launch. The presentations included a discussion of fibromyalgia, the market, and the Tonmya product label. We believe the clinical data shows meaningful improvements for several important symptoms.
Fibromyalgia Market Is Large and Underestimated. The fibromyalgia population is estimated at about 10 million diagnosed patients. Patients live with symptoms for an average of 7 years before diagnosis, including bodily pain (the most common). Other symptoms include fatigue, insomnia, anxiety, “brain fog”. and depression. Many patients are on multiple drugs, taking an average of 2.7 drugs at any given time. As a non-opioid, non-habit forming drug, we believe Tonmya can meet the need for an effective therapy.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, August 18, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Analyst Day Highlights Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter Results Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – De-Risking the Company by Raising Funds to Reduce Debt and Fund Growth Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP)/OUTPERFORM – TNX-102 SL Receives FDA Approvals As Expected QuoteMedica Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – Improved Revenue Trends
AZZ (AZZ/$112.63 | Price Target: $125) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblecapitalmarkets.com | (561)999-2272 Analyst Day Highlights Rating: OUTPERFORM
Analyst Day. AZZ hosted an analyst day that included a tour of the company’s new Precoat Metals facility in Washington, Missouri. Mr. Tom Ferguson, CEO, provided opening remarks followed by presentations by Mr. Kurt Russell, Chief Strategy Officer, Mr. Todd Bella, Senior Vice President, Metal Coatings, Mr. Jeff Vellines, President and Chief Operating Officer, Precoat Metals, and Mr. Jason Crawford, Chief Financial Officer.
Organic and acquired growth. The company’s three-year goals include generating over two billion dollars in sales in fiscal year 2028 compared to its trailing twelve-month sales of $1.6 billion. Organic growth is expected to exceed GDP growth by a factor of two, and AZZ is targeting acquisitions that strengthen both of its business segments. Management has identified over 68 potential acquisition opportunities, with 13 under evaluation.The company recently acquired Canton Galvanizing, LLC in July, which expanded AZZ’s metal coating capabilities in the U.S. Midwest.
Bit Digital (BTBT/$3.01 | Price Target: $5.50) Joe Gomes jgomes@noblecapitalmarkets.com | (561)999-2262 Second Quarter Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Transformation. Since the end of 1Q25, Bit Digital has transformed the business: first moving to an Ethereum treasury and staking platform, and then the WhiteFiber IPO. The focus going forward at Bit Digital is to build one of the largest institutional balance sheets in the public markets and generate scalable staking yield. We expect the WhiteFiber holding to be liquidated over time to fund this goal.
2Q25 Results. Revenue of $25.7 million fell from $29.0 million in 2Q24, was flat sequentially, and in-line with our $25.4 million estimate. The key difference was Mining revenue, which fell to $6.6 million from $16.1 million last year. Cloud Services revenue rose to $16.6 million from $12.5 million in 2Q24. Higher one-time G&A costs and lower gross margins across most business lines, offset by a $27.1 million gain on Digital Assets, resulted in operating income of $13.9 million, compared to an operating loss of $11.5 million in 2Q24, which was impacted by a $11.5 million loss on Digital Assets. The Company reported net income of $14.9 million, or $0.07/sh, versus a net loss of $12 million, or $0.09/sh last year.
Comstock (LODE/$2.33) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblecapitalmarkets.com | (561)999-2272 De-Risking the Company by Raising Funds to Reduce Debt and Fund Growth Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Second quarter financial results. Comstock reported a net loss of $7.8 million or $(0.27) per share, compared to a net loss of $8.6 million or $(0.60) per share during the prior year period. Revenue decreased to $339.5 thousand compared to $434.8 thousand during the prior year period. The loss from operations widened to $7.7 million compared to $5.6 million during the second quarter of 2024 due to higher selling, general, and administrative expenses that increased to $4.6 million from $2.8 million. Relative to our net loss estimate of $5.0 million, or $(0.16) per share, revenues were below our estimates, while operating expenses were higher.
Recent financing. Comstock raised gross proceeds of ~$30.0 million with a public offering of 13.3 million shares priced at $2.25 per share. The net proceeds will be used to fund capital expenditures associated with commercializing its first industry-scale facility for Comstock Metals, development expenses, and general corporate purposes, including the repayment of existing debt. As of August 14, LODE shares outstanding were 49.3 million compared to 32.4 million as of June 30. The underwriters have a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 2.0 million shares to cover over-allotments, which we assume will be exercised.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP\$51.35 | Price Target: $70) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblecapitalmarkets.com | (212) 896-4625 TNX-102 SL Receives FDA Approval As Expected Rating: OUTPERFORM
Tonix Announced The Approval of TNX-102 SL. As we had anticipated, TNX-102 SL (Tonmya) has received approval for the treatment of fibromyalgia. A conference call is planned for 8:30 am on August 17. Further details on the marketing program and plans for product launch are expect to be discussed. First sales are expected by 4Q25.
TNX-102 SL Addresses Numerous Symptoms of Fibromyalgia. The NDA (New Drug Application) was based on two Phase 3 studies. The primary endpoint was a reduction in pain scores at 14 days compared with placebo. After three months about 30% of the patients had a clinically meaningful reduction in pain compared with placebo. The studies also met all six of the secondary endpoints with high levels of statistically significance.
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI\$0.17 | Price Target: $0.23) Michael Kupinski mkupinksi@noblecapitalmarkets.com | (561) 994-5734 Improved Revenue Trends Rating: OUTPERFORM
Mixed Q2 Results. The company reported improved Q2 revenue trend, with revenue growing 5% over the prior year period to $4.9 million, marking the highest quarterly revenue in the company’s history and sequential improvement from 3% in Q1. Adj. EBITDA of $0.1 million in Q2 was lower than our estimate of $0.4 million, largely due to increased development costs, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 Results. In our view, the company’s business pipeline appears to be improving and revenue should gain momentum throughout the year and into 2026.
Capitalizing less development costs. Notably, the company capitalized less development costs in Q2 than in the prior year, leading to more development costs expensed in Q2. While this impacted Q2, we believe that margins should improve as the company begins to recognize the revenue from the new business “wins” in future quarters. Furthermore, the company will be expensing development costs at a similar rate to Q2 moving forward.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 15, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cocrystal Pharma (COCP)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q25 Reported With Norovirus and Influenza Product Updates Conduent (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – New Business Momentum Picking Up CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Another New Contract DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – Ongoing Work with NIH Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter Financial Results Exceed Expectations; Increasing Estimates Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – Actions Taken To Address Issues That Caused The CRL Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Influencer Brands Set To Launch
Cocrystal Pharma (COCP/$1.68 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 2Q25 Reported With Norovirus and Influenza Product Updates Rating: OUTPERFORM
Antivirals Continue To Move Forward. Cocrystal reported 2Q25 loss of $2.1 million or $(0.20) per share. During 2Q, the company presented data from its CDI-988 Phase 1 study in norovirus. Separately, CDI-988 has demonstrated inhibition of multiple strains, including GII.17 and GII.4 that have caused norovirus outbreaks over the past 2 years. The Phase 2a human challenge study testing CC-42344 in influenza has been extended. CC-42344 has shown inhibition of several strains of avian influenza that have caused public health concerns. Cash on June 30, 2025 was $4.8 million.
Phase 1b Is Planned For CDI-988 In Norovirus. Data from a Phase 1 trial showing safety and efficacy of CDI-988 was presented in August. The data show that CDI-988 was safe and effective through a range of doses in a single-ascending (SAD) and multiple-ascending (MAD) dose cohorts. A Phase 1b study testing CDI-988 as both treatment and prophylaxis for norovirus is planned for later in FY2025.
Conduent (CNDT/$2.49 | Price Target: $7) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 New Business Momentum Picking Up Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q2 results. Q2 revenue of $754 million aligned with our estimate, while adj. EBITDA of $37 million exceeded our forecast of $33 million. All three segments delivered sequential, new business, Annual Contract Value (ACV ) growth, a key forward indicator. This sales momentum supports our view that Conduent is on track to return to top-line growth in 2026.
Big Beautiful Bill may present upside. We view the recently passed “Big Beautiful Bill” as a potential tailwind for Conduent’s Government segment. The legislation tightens eligibility enforcement for public benefits, which may drive increased demand for outsourced eligibility verification and fraud detection, which are core capabilities for the company.
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$20.46 | Price Target: $28) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Another New Contract Rating: OUTPERFORM
West Tennessee. As anticipated, CoreCivic announced another new contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Through an intergovernmental services agreement (IGSA) between the City of Mason, Tennessee, and ICE, CoreCivic will resume operations at the Company’s 600-bed West Tennessee Detention Facility, a facility that has been idle since September 2021.
Details. The IGSA expires in August 2030 and may be further extended through bilateral modification. The agreement provides for a fixed monthly payment plus an incremental per diem payment based on detainee populations. Total annual revenue once the facility is fully activated is expected to be approximately $30 million to $35 million, with margins consistent with the CoreCivic Safety segment.
DLH Holdings (DLHC/$5.88 | Price Target: $10) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Ongoing Work with NIH Rating: OUTPERFORM
Task Order. DLH has been awarded a task order valued at up to $46.9 million to continue providing information technology services, including enterprise IT systems management, cyber security, software development, cloud computing, and more, to the National Institutes of Health’s Office of Information Technology (“OIT”).
Details. The task order includes a base period and multiple options aggregating to a three-year period of performance. Through this award, DLH will leverage a comprehensive suite of digital transformation and cyber security solutions to support approximately 7,000 end-customers. As part of this new effort, DLH will design and implement a cloud migration strategy built on partnerships with leading commercial CSP vendors, including Azure, AWS, and Google.
Second quarter financial results. Total net revenues for the second quartertotaled $57.2 million, a 2.5% decrease year-over-year, but slightly higher than our estimate of $56.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA and EPS were $39.3 million and $4.20, respectively, above our estimates of $38.5 million and $3.87. The better-than-expected results were due to higher time charter equivalent (TCE) rates of $29,420 per day compared to our estimate of $28,502 per day, along with modestly lower-than-expected operating expenses of $23.9 million compared to our estimate of $24.7 million.
Market outlook. TCE rates for feeder vessels increased 8% in the second quarter due to limited vessel availability and robust demand. While the global containership orderbook remains high, the feeder and intermediate segments have a much smaller pipeline of just 4 to 8%, offering some insulation from the potential negative impact of an oversupplied market. Ongoing Red Sea conflicts have further supported rates by prompting Suez Canal re-routings and increasing distance. Although U.S. trade policies cloud visibility, we expect TCE rates to remain strong through year-end 2025 and into 2026.
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$4.63 | Price Target: $6) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Actions Taken To Address Issues That Caused The CRL Rating: OUTPERFORM
Actions Taken To Correct Manufacturing Findings. Unicycive reported a 2Q25 loss of $6.4 million or $(0.52) per share, with cash on June 30, 2025 of $22.3 million. Based on our current estimates, we believe this is sufficient to fund operations through 2H25. On June 30, the company received a CRL (Complete Response Letter) following an FDA inspection that found deficiencies at a contract manufacturer’s facility. The findings stopped the labeling discussions required for completion of the NDA review. The company has shifted to one of its other manufacturers, and filed a request for a meeting with the FDA.
A Request For A Type A Meeting Was Filed. Following the receipt of the CRL, Unicycive filed a request for a Type A meeting with the FDA. This type of meeting is held to discuss the issues that led to the CRL and how to correct them. These meetings are usually scheduled within 30 days of the request. After meeting is held the company will receive the meeting minutes with requirements for resubmission of the NDA application. Unicycive expects to announce an updated plan for OCL development during 3Q25.
Xcel Brands (XELB/$1.06 | Price Target: $9) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Influencer Brands Set To Launch Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 Results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $1.3 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $0.3 million, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 results. Importantly, while revenue was 22.3% lower than our estimate of $1.7 million, the adj. EBITDA loss of $0.3 million was largely in line with our expectations of a loss of $0.35 million. Furthermore, the on target adj. EBITDA figure was driven by the company’s strategic cost reduction and business transformation efforts, as well as the Lori Goldstein divestiture.
Favorable outlook. While the company is approaching the back half of the year with caution, largely driven by potential tariff impacts, we believe it stands to benefit from a number of favorable developments. Notably, the company is launching its Longaberger brand in Q3 on QVC and announced an accelerated timeline for its new influencer brands. Additionally, the company stands to benefit from its Halston brand as royalties kick in.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, August 14, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Revised Forecasts Reflect Phased Rollout, Long-Term Outlook Intact The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI)/OUTPERFORM – Patient Additions And Pharmacy Division Drive 2Q25 Revenues Above Expectations
SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.28 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Revised Forecasts Reflect Phased Rollout, Long-Term Outlook Intact Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 results. SKYX reported Q2 revenue of $23.1 million, up 7.5% year over year and 14.7% sequentially. Gross margin expanded 190bps to 30.3%, supported by a favorable mix shift toward proprietary tech-embedded products. The adj. EBITDA loss of $2.6 million was slightly wider than our forecast of a $2.3 million loss but reflects underlying operating leverage as revenue scales.
Smart City partnership reinforces revenue growth trajectory. The company’s partnership with the $3 billion Smart City development in Miami’s Little River District positions it for sustained long-term growth. We expect the rollout to drive meaningful topline and branding impact over time, with strategic visibility among large-scale developers likely to reinforce future adoption of SKYX’s technology in both residential and commercial verticals.
The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI/$4.1 | Price Target: $8) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Patient Additions And Pharmacy Division Drive 2Q25 Revenues Above Expectations Rating: OUTPERFORM
Revenues Were Driven By New Patients Under Contract. The Oncology Institute reported a loss for 2Q25 of $17.0 million or $(0.15) per share. Revenues of $119.8 million exceeded our estimate of $110.4 million. The company discussed newly active or pending contracts that will add covered lives during 2H25. It reiterated its guidance for Revenues, Gross Profit, Adjusted EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow. Cash on June 30, 2025 was $30.3 million.
Patient Services Were Close To Our Expectations. The Patient Services division reached $55.9 million. New payor contracts added patients during 1H25 that began generating revenues, although they have a period of higher cost during the transition to TOI management. We expect the patient mix to include more continuing patients during 2H25, improving margins while new contracts continue to drive growth.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 13, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – WhiteFiber IPO Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Q2 Upside Drives Full-Year Upward Revisions EuroDry (EDRY)/MARKET PERFORM – Weak Second Quarter, Better Results Expected Ahead Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – Pre-Leasing Momentum Reinforces Competitive Moat Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q25 Reported As We Await The TNX-102 SL PDUFA Date Of August 15
Bit Digital (BTBT/$3.03 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 WhiteFiber IPO Rating: OUTPERFORM
IPO. WhiteFiber has been brought public through the sale of 9.375 million shares at $17/sh. Upon completion of the offering, Bit Digital retained ownership of 74.3% of the 36.4 million outstanding shares (71.5% if the underwriters exercised the full option). WhiteFiber shares are trading on the NASDAQ under the symbol WYFI.
Funding. Net proceeds from the IPO were expected to be approximately $145.1 million, or approximately $167.4 million if the underwriters exercised their option in full. Management anticipates using the funds for the build out and expansion of the business.
Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$4.22 | Price Target: $9) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Q2 Upside Drives Full-Year Upward Revisions Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Q2 results. Bitcoin Depot reported Q2 revenue of $172.1 million (5.5% growth YoY), better than our estimate of $167.5 million. Adj. EBITDA of $18.5 million (46.2% growth YoY) beat our estimate of $15.5 million. The impressive results were driven by stronger revenue per kiosk, particularly among mature locations.
Kiosk expansion. The company added roughly 600 kiosks during Q2, ending with 9,000 units in operation. About 3,300 kiosks are still in early ramp, suggesting room for productivity gains. Bitcoin Depot also holds 1,700 units in inventory, enabling growth without near-term capex. In Australia, 200 kiosks have been deployed, and management is evaluating two more international markets.
EuroDry (EDRY/$10.67) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Weak Second Quarter, Better Results Expected Ahead Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Second quarter financial results. EuroDry generated Q2 net revenues of $11.3 million, in line with our $11.4 million estimate but down about $6 million year-over-year due to a decline in average time charter equivalent (TCE) rates. Adjusted EBITDA of $1.9 million and a loss per share of $1.10 per share were better than our forecasts of $1.6 million and a loss of $1.23 per share, aided by lower voyage expenses, but trailed last year’s $5.0 million and $0.17 loss.
Market Outlook. The dry-bulk market saw a brief improvement in the second quarter as rates recovered from early-year lows, though momentum slowed later in the period amid trade policy developments and softer Chinese import activity. However, since the start of the third quarter, rates have improved, and the IMF slightly raised its 2025 global GDP guidance. Red Sea disruptions have continued to extend voyage distances, and demand has picked up slightly based on improved sentiment toward growth in China. The orderbook remains near historical lows, so while rates hover below 2024 levels, we expect the recent improvement to hold for the remainder of the year.
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$10.95 | Price Target: $23) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Pre-Leasing Momentum Reinforces Competitive Moat Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 slightly below forecast. Sky Harbour reported Q2 revenue of $6.6 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $3.0 million, both below expectations. Despite the shortfall, development milestones were notable with new long-term ground leases signed at Hillsboro (HIO) and Stewart (SWF), reinforcing execution on its expansion strategy.
Expansion on track. The company began pre-leasing at IAD and BDL (both pre-construction) at strong average rates of $47.06 per square foot, underscoring brand strength and tenant confidence. With DVT and ADS operational and leasing underway, management reiterated its goal of securing five additional long-term leases by year-end, which would bring the total to 23.
Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP/$59.76 | Price Target: $70) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 2Q25 Reported As We Await The TNX-102 SL PDUFA Date Of August 15 Rating: OUTPERFORM
We Are On The Edge Of Our Seats Waiting For TNX-102 SL. Tonix reported a 2Q25 loss of $28.3 million or $(3.86) per share. Importantly, the PDUFA date for TNX-102 SL is August 15. This is the date when the FDA is required to answer the application for approval. We continue to expect TNX-102 SL to be approved this week. Cash on hand at the end of the quarter was $125.3 million.
TNX-102 SL Launch Is Planned For 4Q25. The company expects to have TNX-102 SL available during 4Q25, as we expected. It will be the first drug developed and approved for fibromyalgia, compared with the current therapies that were approved for other conditions then expanded into fibromyalgia. Importantly, TNX-102 SL met its primary endpoint of pain relief and all six secondary endpoints for relief of symptoms.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 12, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q25 Included Clinical Strategy Change and Manufacturing Progress Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – A Significant, Positive Development MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – Expand the Brand Nutriband (NTRB)/OUTPERFORM – CEO Gareth Sheridan To Run For President Of Ireland V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Expanding Capabilities
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$10.94 | Price Target: $45) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 2Q25 Included Clinical Strategy Change and Manufacturing Progress Rating: OUTPERFORM
Cadrenal Reports 2Q With Product News. Cadrenal reported a 2Q25 loss of $3.7 million or $(1.87) per share. During the quarter, the company announced a design modification for the upcoming tecarfarin clinical trial. The company also transferred its manufacturing technology to a CDMO and completed production scale-up in preparation for clinical trials. Cash on June 30, 2025 was $5.6 million.
New Trial Focuses On First Months Of Dialysis. As described in our Research Note on August 7 , the new trial design reflects recent research showing the first four to six months after the start of renal dialysis are an ultra-high-risk period for cardiac events including myocardial infarction, stroke, embolism, and death. The design change will be testing tecarfarin as an anticoagulant to reduce these events. The clinical site activation and trial enrollment are expected to begin around year-end.
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.42) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 A Significant, Positive Development Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Converts the majority of its debt. The company announced that it has converted $25.0 million of its roughly $34.4 million in debt into a perpetual Series A Preferred Convertible Stock. The Preferred Stock will carry a cumulative annual 10% dividend, based on board of approval, and will be convertible at $2.50 per Class A common share. Following the transaction, the company will have roughly $9.4 million debt remaining under its Term Loan Facility. The move is viewed favorably.
Significant, but manageable restrictions. The company will be required to maintain total leverage below 3.5 to1 declining to 3.25 to 1. In addition, the company will need to maintain a fixed charge coverage of 1.25 to 1 rising to 1.5 to 1. In addition, the company must maintain $1.5 million in unrestricted cash. Finally, the company must maintain a minimum of consolidated EBITDA of $1.0 million for fiscal quarters end Sept. 2025 and then $500,000 thereafter.
MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.13 | Price Target: $0.25) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Expand the Brand Rating: OUTPERFORM
Expand the Brand. With the recent Pennsylvania and Maine announcements, MariMed continues to implement its Expand the Brand strategy, which is focused on making the Company’s products accessible to as many consumers as possible. We expect the Company to look at additional new markets, such as New York and New Jersey, for additional expansion.
Market Remains Mixed. There remains a lot of near-term uncertainty in the cannabis industry. Pricing pressures, market saturation, and the lack of federal reform still pose a challenge that MariMed will need to navigate. Entering into established cannabis markets that are expanding into the adult recreational use market enables the Company to quickly capture share in proven markets.
Nutriband (NTRB/$6.85 | Price Target: $15) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 CEO Gareth Sheridan To Run For President Of Ireland Rating: OUTPERFORM
CFO Will Transition To CEO. Nutriband CEO and Co-Founder Gareth Sheridan has announced plans to take a three-month leave from the company to run for President of the Republic of Ireland. The current CFO and Co-Founder, Serguei Melnik, will become Acting CEO as Mr. Sheridan campaigns. The election is expected to be held in late September or early October. If elected, Sergeui will become CEO. If Mr. Sheridan is not elected, he may return to the company.
We Wish Gareth Sheridan Well In The Election. As a Co-founder and CEO of the company, Gareth Sheridan has guided the company from an idea to becoming a NASDAQ-listed company with three divisions. Nutriband’s financial planning has allowed it to develop the AVERSA technology with low operating losses, keeping the share base low.
V2X (VVX/$52.93 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Expanding Capabilities Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Tuck-in. Last night, after the market closed, V2X announced it had entered into an agreement to acquire a specialized data engineering, intel mission support, and cyber solutions business serving the Intelligence Community (IC). The transaction is valued at approximately $24 million, net of estimated tax benefits. We expect additional details to follow.
IC Expansion. The acquisition advances V2X’s strategic growth objectives and further extends its reach beyond traditional defense markets, enabling the Company to pursue a greater share of the National Intelligence Program budget and related opportunities. The acquisition adds some 70 people to V2X.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, August 11, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Post call Commentary DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Fed Rate Action Could Ignite Auto Advertising Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – Post 2Q25 Call Commentary Kelly Services (KELYA)/OUTPERFORM – New CEO; Reports 2Q25 Results Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Strong 2Q25, Raises Guidance, Increasing PT NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Update V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – AIP Sells Some More
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$20.5 | Price Target: $28) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Post call Commentary Rating: OUTPERFORM
Availability. Increased use of CoreCivic’s remaining beds will help drive operating results going forward. If all of the idle 13,419 beds were activated, this would imply around $500 million in annual revenue, and around $200 million to $225 million in incremental EBITDA.
Activations. During the quarter, CoreCivic made substantial progress in reactivating three previously idled facilities, and the Company’s activation teams are preparing for additional contracting activity. Management noted that CoreCivic is in advanced negotiations to activate a fourth idle facility and has just begun negotiations for a fifth facility.
DLH Holdings (DLHC/$5.5 | Price Target: $10) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Post Call Commentary Rating: OUTPERFORM
When, Not If. We continue to believe it is a matter of when, not if, DLH begins to capitalize on the large opportunity set for its mission critical skill set. Current disruptions in Federal government contracting will pass, and DLH’s capabilities, in areas such as digital transformation, cybersecurity, and addressing critical public health issues, align well with the government’s goals.
Still Accumulating. Mink Brook Asset Management continues to accumulate DLHC shares, including 5,900 shares at the end of last week. Mink Brook now owns 2,389,350 DLHC shares, representing 16.6% of the outstanding common, up from 2,164,058 shares at the end of May.
E.W. Scripps (SSP/$2.52 | Price Target: $10) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Fed Rate Action Could Ignite Auto Advertising Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 results largely in line. Total company revenue of $540.0 million was a tad shy of our $546.6 million estimate, but was close enough. The biggest downside variance was Political, which is very unpredictable especially in an off election year. Importantly, the company overachieved our adj. EBITDA estimate, $88.8 million versus $84.8 million.
Tweaking estimates. Management indicated that Q3 Core advertising was pacing flat in Q3, a sequential improvement from down 1.9% in q2, but a little lighter than we had hoped given the year earlier Political displacement. We tweaked our Q3 revenue estimate down 2.1% to $528.5 million and adj. EBITDA estimate down 2.8% to $71.5 million.
Information Services Group (III/$4.44 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Post 2Q25 Call Commentary Rating: OUTPERFORM
Riding the Waves. ISG is riding two key waves, one is AI adoption, with clients investing aggressively in modernizing their technology operations and infrastructure to support it. The other is cost optimization, as one of the means of funding the AI adoption is through optimization of cloud, infrastructure, and software costs.
AI & Recurring Revenue. AI-related revenue was 2.5x higher than it was a year ago. And in both the second quarter and first half, nearly 20% of total revenue was AI related. Recurring revenues in the second quarter reached $28 million, up 7% sequentially and represented 45% of overall revenue.
Kelly Services (KELYA/$14.15 | Price Target: $27) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | New CEO; Reports 2Q25 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
New CEO. Chris Layden has been selected to serve as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective September 2, 2025, replacing the retiring Peter Quigley. Having spent nearly two decades at Manpower Group and as COO of Prolink, Mr. Layden has extensive experience leading organizations through transformations to advance go-to-market initiatives and accelerate profitable growth.
2Q25 Results. Kelly reported revenue of $1.1 billion, up 4.2% y-o-y but down 3.3% on an organic basis. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA of $37.0 million was down 8.7% versus the prior year, with adjusted EBITDA margin down 40 bp to 3.4%. EPS was $0.52 compared to EPS of $0.12 in the second quarter of 2024. On an adjusted basis, EPS was $0.54 in 2Q25 compared to $0.71/sh in 2Q24. We had forecast $1.17 billion of revenue, $42.5 million adjusted EBITDA, EPS of $0.73, and adjusted EPS of $0.71.
Opportunity Knocks! Virtually every Kratos business unit is forecasting significant future organic growth, including the hypersonic system franchise, small jet engines for drones, missiles, and loitering munitions, the Israeli based microwave electronics business, and the military grade hardware business supporting missile, radar, hypersonic, counter UAS and strategic weapon systems.
2Q25 Results. Kratos reported revenue of $351.5 million, reflecting 17.1% y-o-y growth and 15.2% organic growth. We had projected revenue of $308 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $28.3 million versus $29.9 million a year ago and our $27.5 million estimate. Adjusted net income was $17.1 million, or $0.11/sh, versus $20.8 million, or $0.14/sh, last year and our $18.8 million, or $0.12/sh, estimate.
Second Quarter Developments. NN leveraged the soft market environment to upsize its business development activities and investments. The soft top-line centers around certain automotive customers, which NN was able to partially offset through the contribution of new business launches and precious metals pass-through pricing.
Changing for the Better. Management continues to work on its transformation plan to position the Company for significant upside when end markets improve. For example, YTD, the 18.2% adjusted gross margin is an expansion of 190 basis points over the past two years and well on the way to the 20% gm goal.
V2X (VVX/$50.78 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 AIP Sells Some More Rating: OUTPERFORM
Another Sale. AIP, through its Vertex Aerospace Holdco LLC sub, is selling another 2 million shares of VVX stock through an offering that is expected to close on August 11th. This will be the fourth such sale as the private equity firm continues to lighten its V2X holdings.
V2X to Buy. Subject to the closing of the offering, V2X has agreed to purchase 200,000 shares of V2X’s common stock that are subject to the offering at a price per share of common stock equal to the price to be paid to Vertex Aerospace by the underwriter. V2X intends to fund the repurchase of its common stock with cash on hand. This will cost approximately $10 million.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 8, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cumulus Media (CMLS)/MARKET PERFORM – Can It Pull A Rabbit Out Of The Hat? GoHealth (GOCO)/OUTPERFORM – Forecast Trimmed, Flexibility Restored Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – Outlook Offers Glimmer Of Revenue Improvement
Cumulus Media (CMLS/$0.17) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Can It Pull A Rabbit Out Of The Hat? Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Exceeds Q2 expectations. Q2 revenue of $186.0 million was a tad better than our $183.9 million estimate, with the largest upside variance being Digital revenue and a little lift from Political advertising. Its Digital Marketing Services business was up an impressive 38% in revenue. Adj. EBITDA exceeded expectations at $22.4 million versus our $15.6 million estimate.
Ad trends still negative. Core spot advertising appears to be moderating and its Digital Marketing Services business appears to be a bright spot, pacing up 35% in Q3. Total company revenue is pacing down low double digits in Q3, however, worse than expected. Network advertising continues to be the culprit given the challenged macro economic environment and the company’s decision to decrease content/inventory.
GoHealth (GOCO/$5.73 | Price Target: $20) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Forecast Trimmed, Flexibility Restored Rating: OUTPERFORM
Hits headwinds in Q2. GoHealth reported Q2 revenue of $94.0 million, below our $110.0 million forecast, as Medicare Advantage softness and CMS policy shifts weighed on volumes. Revenue declined 11% year-over-year. Despite the top-line miss, adj. EBITDA loss of $11.3 million beat our expected loss of $13.2 million, reflecting ongoing cost discipline and benefits from automation initiatives underway in agent workflows.
Recapitalization improves liquidity, alleviates covenant concerns. The company secured $80 million in new term loans and amended its credit agreement to eliminate principal payments through 2026. Liquidity covenants were reduced to a single minimum cash test. While the 4.77 million Class A shares issued represent roughly 20% dilution, we believe the transaction aligns lender and shareholder incentives and resolves the going concern issue.
Saga Communications (SGA/$12.75 | Price Target: $18) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Outlook Offers Glimmer Of Revenue Improvement Rating: OUTPERFORM
An in line quarter. Even though the second quarter results were lackluster, total company revenues were down 5% from the comparable year earlier quarter, it was refreshing to have a company report an in line quarter. Total company Q2 revenues were $23.4 million, roughly in line with our $24.1 million estimate. Adj. EBITDA of $3.5 million was in line with our $3.5 million estimate.
Digital revenue gains traction. While Digital revenue grew a respectable 5.8% in the latest quarter, it faced difficult year earlier comparisons from a non recurring business (up 30.3% in the prior year quarter). Notably, management indicated that Digital revenue is pacing up 30% to 40% in Q3.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, August 7, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – Tecarfarin Clinical Trial To Begin With Modified Design Conduent (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – Improved Margins and Steady Execution CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – First Look – 2Q25; Increased Guidance Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – A More Muted Near Term Revenue Recovery Expected DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – First Look – 3Q25 Results Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – Phase 1b Data Continues To Show Improved Outcomes Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – First Look – 2Q25 Results and an Acquisition MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – First Look 2Q25 Results NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – First Look – 2Q25 ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – Some Good, Some Challenges; Reports 2Q25 Results Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter Rebound, Raising Estimates The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Reports Second Quarter Results The ODP Corporation (ODP)/OUTPERFORM – Making Progress in the Second Quarter Townsquare Media (TSQ)/OUTPERFORM – Delivers On Expectations
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$10.95 | Price Target: $45) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Tecarfarin Clinical Trial To Begin With Modified Design Rating: OUTPERFORM
Cadrenal Announces New Trial Design. Cadrenal announced that it plans to begin a trial testing tecarfarin in patients who are starting renal dialysis, both with and without atrial fibrillation (ESKD-Afib). This design reflects recent studies showing that the first several months after starting dialysis are an ultra-high risk period for mortality and cardiac events. The trial will test tecarfarin efficacy in reducing these events and could begin in late 2025 to early 2026.
Modified Study Design Focuses On Highest Risk Period. The initiation of renal dialysis impacts several important cardiovascular and renal functions. New studies show that the first six months after starting dialysis have a 20-fold increase in cardiovascular events and mortality. This has not previously been recognized due to pathologies of the underlying conditions that lead to CKD and dialysis.
Conduent (CNDT/$2.45 | Price Target: $7) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Improved Margins and Steady Execution Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q2 results. Conduent reported second-quarter revenue of $754 million, in line with our estimate. Adj. EBITDA of $37 million exceeded our $33 million forecast. Importantly, all three business segments posted sequential growth in new business annual contract value, signaling building commercial momentum and suggesting that execution is improving across the platform.
Portfolio rationalization in the works. The company collected the remaining $50 million from its Curbside Management divestiture, completing phase one of its portfolio rationalization strategy. Management indicated additional transactions are in progress, aimed at boosting profitability. We believe updates are likely by year-end, as the team continues to reshape the business with a focus on higher-margin opportunities.
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$19.6 | Price Target: $28) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 First Look – 2Q25; Increased Guidance Rating: OUTPERFORM
Increasing Demand. Increasing demand for the solutions provided, particularly from ICE, contributed to a strong second quarter, as nationwide detention populations under ICE custody reached an all-time high. ICE revenue rose 17.2% y-o-y, but we also note revenue from state partners increased 5.2% y-o-y and U.S. Marshals revenue increased 2.7% y-o-y.
2Q25 Results. Revenue was $538.2 million in 2Q25, up from $490.1 million last year. We were at $500.6 million. Safety and Community average occupancy increased to 76.8% from 74.3%, even with an overhang from the recently activated California City facility. Adjusted EBITDA was $103.3 million, up 23.2% y-o-y. NFFO per share was $0.59, up 40.5%. CoreCivic reported adjusted EPS of $0.36, up 80%.
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.48) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 A More Muted Near Term Revenue Recovery Expected Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Mixed Q2 results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $10.1 million, below our forecast of $12.5 million, driven by continued underperformance in the Sell-side business, which generated $2.5 million vs. our forecast of $4.5 million. Despite the shortfall, adj. EBITDA loss of $1.5 million was better than expected, aided by cost reductions and lower headcount from increased automation.
Implications for second half performance. The Q2 revenue miss was largely attributable to slower-than-expected progress with the company’s “direct connections” initiative, in which its SSP integrates directly with DSPs to bypass intermediaries. While the strategy remains a critical long-term growth lever, the implementation delays have weighed on near-term Sell-side revenue performance, as well as the outlook for the second half 2025.
DLH Holdings (DLHC/$5.56 | Price Target: $10) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 First Look – 3Q25 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Making Progress. In the third quarter, DLH effectively navigated changes in the competitive landscape and transition in the industry overall, preserving margin delivery and strong operating cash flow. Headwinds such as the transition of CMOP locations, unbundling of DOD contracts, and scope reductions as a result of government efficiency efforts all impacted the quarter.
3Q25 Results. Revenue was $83.3 million, compared to $100.7 million in the year ago quarter. We had forecasted $83 million. DLH reported adjusted EBITDA of $8.1 million, down from $10 million in 3Q24 and our $8.5 million estimate. Net income was $0.3 million, or $0.02/sh, versus $1.1 million, or $0.08/sh last year. We had projected $0.35 million, or $0.02/sh.
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$3.44 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Phase 1b Data Continues To Show Improved Outcomes Rating: OUTPERFORM
Phase 1b Kidney Transplant Data Presented. Eledon presented data from its Phase 1b trial using tegoprubart as part of an immunosuppressive regimen at The World Transplant Congress. The data from the first 32 patients at two dosage cohorts continues to show meaningful improvement over the standard of care. We believe this supports our expectations for strong data for the Phase 2 BESTOW trial in November.
Study Design. The presentation included data from 32 patients receiving kidney transplants followed by an immunosuppressive regimen tegoprubart instead of tacrolimus, the standard of care. The primary endpoints are safety and pharmacokinetics. Secondary endpoints include patient survival, graft survival, biopsy proven acute rejection, with kidney function measured by eGFR and iBOX score.
Information Services Group (III/$4.23 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 First Look – 2Q25 Results and an Acquisition Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q25 Results. Revenue of $61.6 million was up 7% versus last year, excluding results for the divested automation unit. On the same basis, revenues were $39.5 million in the Americas, up 16% versus the prior year, revenues in Europe were $16.6 million, down 7%, and Asia Pacific revenues were $5.4 million, down 1%. Adjusted EBITDA of $8.3 million rose 17% y-o-y. ISG reported adjusted net income of $4.1 million, or $0.08/sh, compared with adjusted net income of $3.8 million, or $0.08/sh last year. We were at $60 million, $7.25 million, and $0.07/sh, respectively.
An Acquisition. ISG has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Martino & Partners, a highly respected strategic advisory firm serving public and private sector clients in Italy. The transaction is expected to close in early September. The acquisition is expected to expand ISG’s client base, geographic footprint, and capabilities in Italy, including AI, in a market with emerging growth potential.
MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.11 | Price Target: $0.25) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 First Look 2Q25 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. MariMed delivered sequential growth in both wholesale and retail revenues for the second quarter, a substantial increase in adjusted EBITDA, and was cash flow positive, reflecting strong execution in Massachusetts, full-quarter contributions from Delaware, and a solid retail strategy.
2Q25 Results. Total revenue was $39.6 million, down modestly from $40.4 million in the year ago period and our $40.5 million estimate. Wholesale sales rose to $17.1 million from $15.9 million, while retail sales declined to $22.4 million from $23.6 million. The Company reported adjusted EBITDA of $4.9 million versus $4.4 million and adjusted net income of $0.4 million versus an adjusted net loss of $0.2 million last year.
NN (NNBR/$2.14 | Price Target: $6) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 First Look – 2Q25 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. NN delivered a solid quarter for gross margins, operating income, adjusted operating income, and adjusted EBITDA. The soft top-line centered around certain automotive customers, which is being partially offset through the contribution of new business launches and precious metals pass-through pricing.
2Q25. On a reported basis, Net sales were $107.9 million, a decrease of 12.3% compared to the second quarter of 2024. We were at $109 million. On an adjusted basis, net sales were off 2.4%. Adjusted income from operations for 2Q25 was $4.9 million compared to adjusted income from operations of $2.1 million for the same period in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA was $13.2 million, or 12.2% of sales, compared to $13.4 million, or 10.9% of sales, for the same period in 2024.
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$2.87 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Some Good, Some Challenges; Reports 2Q25 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Mixed Bag. In the second quarter, Benihana delivered positive same store sales, and STK achieved positive traffic for the second and third consecutive quarters, respectively. However, Grill concept SSS were off 14.6% and the Company closed five locations in the quarter. Expenses were also higher than anticipated.
2Q25 Results. Overall revenue increased 20.2% y-o-y to $207.2 million, mostly due to a full quarter of Benihana. We had estimated $206.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $23.4 million, up 7.3% y-o-y, but below our $24.9 million estimate. ONE Group reported a GAAP net loss of $10.1 million, versus a net loss of $7.3 million a year ago. Including the preferred dividend, net loss per share was $0.59 versus a net loss per share of $0.38 last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.05 compared to $0.19 last year.
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$7.46 | Price Target: $12) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Second Quarter Rebound, Raising Estimates Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second quarter results. Seanergy reported second quarter net revenue of $37.5 million, ahead of our estimate of $36.5 million, driven by modestly higher time charter equivalent (TCE) rates. Operating expenses were in line with expectations, resulting in adjusted EBITDA of $18.3 million and EPS of $0.18, both ahead of our prior estimates of $16.7 million and $0.11.
Market outlook. The Capesize market returned to profitability in the second quarter, with improving demand fundamentals due to projects in both the Atlantic basin and West Africa. We expect elevated iron ore and bauxite volumes to support demand through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026, resulting in increased ton-miles. Additionally, limited fleet growth is expected to support profitable rates.
The GEO Group (GEO/$22.88 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Reports Second Quarter Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q25 Results. Revenue increased to $636.2 million from $607.2 million. We were at $615 million. Adjusted EBITDA was relatively flat at $118.6 million, or 18.6% of revenue, compared with $119.3 million, or 19.6% of revenue, last year, which was impacted by growth investments. GEO recorded adjusted EPS of $0.22 in 2Q25, flat with last year.
Growth. Management outlined additional growth opportunities over and above those already announced this year. For example, activation of the 5,900 idle beds could add $310 million to revenue, while temporary expanded capacity at facilities by another 5,000 beds could add another $250 million. Management noted ISAP growth is likely a 2026 plan.
The ODP Corporation (ODP/$19.21 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Making Progress in the Second Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 Overview. During the quarter, ODP saw improved revenue trends and delivered solid operating results, highlighted by stronger adjusted free cash flow generation. The results reflect ongoing improvements across both the consumer and B2B businesses. Retail meaningfully improved same-store sales trends versus last year, while the B2B business achieved approximately a 200-basis point improvement in year-over-year revenue trends.
Q2 Results. The ODP Corporation reported revenue of $1.59 billion in 2Q25, down from $1.72 billion in 2Q24. We had estimated $1.58 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $47 million, down from $57 million a year ago and in-line with our $44 million estimate. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.51 compared to $0.56 in 2Q24 and our $0.23 estimate.
Townsquare Media (TSQ/$6.78 | Price Target: $21) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Delivers On Expectations Rating: OUTPERFORM
In line Q2 results. Total revenue of $115.4 million, down 2.3% from the comparable year quarter, was in line with our $114.9 million estimate, a reflection of economic headwinds and slower digital revenue growth. Adj. EBITDA of $26.4 million was better than our $25.2 million estimate, reflecting better margins.
Digital revenue slows, but margins improve. Digital advertising revenues were adversely impacted by industry wide declines in search referrals. And, its Interactive business revenue growth was interrupted by sales restructuring. Notably, margins rose in Q2 and are expected to be elevated above normalized levels for the balance of the year due to lower sales staffing.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, August 6, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – First Tranche of Financing Closed; Angel Island Added to the Federal Permitting Dashboard Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Better Than Expected Second Quarter Financial Results Graham (GHM)/OUTPERFORM – Another Good Quarter Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Another Strong Quarter Superior Group of Companies (SGC)/OUTPERFORM – Operating Momentum Improves
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.21 | Price Target: $2.35) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 First Tranche of Financing Closed; Angel Island Added to the Federal Permitting Dashboard Rating: OUTPERFORM
First tranche of LIFE offering closed. Century Lithium recently closed the first tranche of its previously announced the Listed Issuer Financing Exemption (LIFE) offering of up to 16,666,667 units at a price of C$0.30 per unit for gross proceeds of up to C$5,000,000. Each unit consists of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.45 for a period of 60 months following the issuance of the units. In the first tranche, Century issued a total of 9,559,833 units for aggregate gross proceeds of C$2,867,950. Certain directors and officers of the company purchased a total of 168,333 units in the initial closing.
Use of net proceeds. Net proceeds from the financing will be used to complete an updated feasibility study for the company’s Angel Island Lithium Project, complete the project’s Plan of Operations, work towards National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) compliance, and general working capital.
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$1.8 | Price Target: $4) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Post Call Commentary Rating: OUTPERFORM
Positives. There were a number of positives in the quarter, such as the 120 bp sequential improvement in gross margin, strong FCF generation, improved top line performance in Electrical Systems, and higher adjusted operating income in both Seating and Electrical Systems, reflecting benefits from prior restructuring actions.
But End Markets. In spite of the operating successes, CVG’s end markets remain challenged. It appears the much hoped for rebound in the Class 8 truck market will not occur in 2026, with only modest improvement in 2027. Still early days for these types of forecasts, but the Class 8 truck market is still 40% of revenue. And no real change in the Ag and Construction markets, which remain soft.
FreightCar America (RAIL/$10.4 | Price Target: $17) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Better Than Expected Second Quarter Financial Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second quarter financial results. FreightCar America generated adjusted net income of $3.8 million or $0.11 per share, compared to our estimate of $2.0 million or $0.06 per share. Second quarter revenue of $118.6 million exceeded our estimate of $100.6 million. Rail car deliveries were 939 units compared to 1,159 units during the prior year period and our estimate of 850. The year-over-year decline was attributed to a strategic shift in the product mix toward higher-margin rail cars. As a percentage of revenue, second quarter gross margin increased to 15.0% compared to 12.5% during the prior year period and our 12.7% estimate. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $10.0 million compared to our $8.8 million estimate and represented an EBITDA margin of 8.4%.
Updating estimates. We are increasing our 2025 adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $47.3 million and $0.54, respectively, from $45.9 million and $0.47. Our 2026 EBITDA and EPS estimates have increased to $53.2 million and $0.64, respectively, from $48.6 million and $0.53. While our estimates reflect higher gross margin as a percentage of revenue, they also reflect increased sales, general, and administrative expenses.
Graham (GHM/$46.97 | Price Target: $52) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Another Good Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Quarter. Driven by continued strength across the diversified product portfolio, Graham delivered another solid quarter to start fiscal 2026. A highlight was the Energy and Process markets with strong growth driven by execution on major commercial projects and robust aftermarket demand, along with increasing momentum in emerging energy segments.
1Q26 Results. Revenue increased 11% to $55.5 million, slightly above our $54 million estimate. Gross margin improved 170 bp to 26.5%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 33% y-o-y to $6.8 million, with adjusted EBITDA margin up 200 bp to 12.3%. We were at $5.1 million. EPS increased 56% to $0.42 with adjusted EPS up 36% to $0.45. We were at $0.22 and $0.25, respectively.
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$11.45 | Price Target: $14) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Another Strong Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q25 Results. Revenue was $193.8 million, compared to $170 million a year ago. We had forecast revenue of $175.5 million. Gross margin improved to 18.9% from 17.5% in the year ago quarter. Great Lakes reported adjusted EBITDA of $28 million in the quarter and EPS of $0.14. In 2Q24, the Company had adjusted EBITDA of $25.8 million and EPS of $0.11.
Drivers. Great Lakes delivered another solid quarter, supported by strong project execution, continued strength in capital dredging, and favorable equipment utilization, even with the headwinds of four dredges undergoing their regulatory drydocking at various points during the quarter.
Superior Group of Companies (SGC/$9.58 | Price Target: $16) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Operating Momentum Improves Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q2 results. The company reported solid revenue and adj. EBITDA of $144.0 million and $7.4 million, respectively, both of which were better than our estimates of $131.8 million and $6.1 million, respectively. Notably, the strong operating results were largely driven by a 14% increase in Branded Products sales over the prior year period.
Mitigating tariff impact. Notably, management highlighted that its Branded Products segment is well-positioned to navigate the current tariff environment. Importantly, the company started diversifying manufacturing away from China during the first Trump administration and now sources the majority of its Branded Products outside of China. Furthermore, the company’s Healthcare Apparel segment produces all of its finished products outside of China.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, August 5, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – First Look: 2Q25 Shows Some Improvement but End Markets Remain Challenging FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Second Quarter Financial Results Exceed Expectations InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Delek Group Ltd. to Acquire Major Stake in InPlay Oil Steelcase (SCS)/MARKET PERFORM – To Be Acquired for $18.30/sh V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 2Q25 Results
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$1.85 | Price Target: $4) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 First Look: 2Q25 Shows Some Improvement but End Markets Remain Challenging Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q25 Results. Revenue came in at $172 million, down from $193.7 million a year ago, but above our $158 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was $5.2 million, down from $8.2 million a year ago, and in-line with our $5 million estimate. Net loss from continuing operations was $4.1 million, or a loss of $0.12/sh, versus $1.3 million, or a loss of $0.04/sh in 2Q24. Adjusted net loss was $0.09/sh in 2Q25 versus adjusted EPS of $0.05 last year. We had forecasted a net loss of $2 million, or a loss of $0.06/sh.
Highlights. Gross margin improved 80 bp sequentially to 11.3% due to operational efficiency improvements. Free cash flow was $17.3 million, up $16.5 million, due to better working capital management. Net debt decreased $31.8 million compared to the year end 2024 level.
FreightCar America (RAIL/$9.92 | Price Target: $16) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Second Quarter Financial Results Exceed Expectations Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second quarter financial results. FreightCar America generated adjusted net income of $3.8 million or $0.11 per share, compared to our estimate of $2.0 million or $0.06 per share. Second quarter revenue of $118.6 million exceeded our estimate of $100.6 million. Rail car deliveries were 939 units compared to 1,159 units during the prior year period and our estimate of 850. The year-over-year decline was attributed to a strategic shift in the product mix toward higher-margin rail cars. As a percentage of revenue, second quarter gross margin increased to 15.0% compared to 12.5% during the prior year period and our 12.7% estimate. Adjusted EBITDA amounted to $10.0 million compared to our $8.8 million estimate and represented an EBITDA margin of 8.4%. RAIL generated adjusted free cash flow of $7.9 million and ended the quarter with $61.4 million in cash and cash equivalents.
Favorable outlook. During the second quarter, RAIL received 1,226 new rail car orders valued at $106.9 million. With a backlog of 3,624 units valued at $316.9 million, we expect deliveries to accelerate throughout the year. During the quarter, RAIL increased utilization across its four production lines, enhanced productivity, and benefited from a higher-margin product mix. The company is advancing its growth strategy by investing in its tank car capabilities, which it expects to strengthen its cost position and support long-term accretive growth.
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$7.47 | Price Target: $15) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Delek Group Ltd. to Acquire Major Stake in InPlay Oil Rating: OUTPERFORM
Delek Group to acquire major stake in InPlay. Delek Group Ltd. (TASE: DLEKG) executed a definitive agreement to acquire Obsidian Energy’s (TSX: OBE, NYSE American: OBE) common share position in InPlay Oil, consisting of 9,139,784 common shares representing approximately 32.7% of InPlay’s issued and outstanding shares. Subject to certain adjustments, the purchase price is C$10.00 per InPlay share, representing an aggregate transaction value of C$91,397,840. Recall that Obsidian received the shares as partial consideration for its April sale of Pembina Cardium assets to InPlay Oil. The transaction with Delek is expected to close in the first half of August 2025 and remains subject to satisfaction or waiver of certain closing conditions.
Rationale. Delek is an independent exploration and production company based in Israel that has embarked on an international expansion with a focus on high-potential opportunities in the North Sea and North America. Delek views Canada as a strong and stable jurisdiction for oil and gas investment and identified InPlay as an attractive partner in the Canadian energy sector due to its strong record of operational performance and successful acquisitions. Delek holds a 52% equity interest in Ithaca Energy plc and has played a key role in supporting Ithaca’s production growth since the time of its initial investment.
Steelcase (SCS/$16.58) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 To Be Acquired for $18.30/sh Rating: MARKET PERFORM
To Be Acquired. Steelcase has entered into an agreement to be acquired by HNI Corporation in a cash and stock transaction with total consideration of approximately $2.2 billion to Steelcase common shareholders, or about $18.30/sh, an 80% premium to Friday’s close.
Details. Under the terms of the agreement, Steelcase shareholders will receive $7.20 in cash and 0.2192 shares of HNI common stock for each share of Steelcase. The implied per share purchase price of $18.30 is based on HNI’s closing share price of $50.62 on Friday, August 1, 2025, reflecting a valuation multiple at transaction close for Steelcase of approximately 5.8x TTM adjusted EBITDA, inclusive of run-rate cost synergies of $120 million. Upon closing, HNI shareholders will own approximately 64%, and Steelcase shareholders will own approximately 36% of the combined company. The deal is expected to close by year-end.
V2X (VVX/$48.5 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Solid 2Q25 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q25 Results. Revenue came in at $1.078 billion, essentially flat with last year’s $1.072 billion and was in-line with our $1.08 billion estimate. Helped by the pull forward of the conclusion of a non-recurring contractual commitment, adjusted EBITDA was $82.4 million, or a 7.6% margin, compared to $72.3 million, or a 6.7% margin, last year. V2X reported adjusted EPS of $1.33 for 2Q25, up from $0.83 in 2Q24.
Moving Up to Franchise Programs. Highlighted by last week’s T-6 services award, V2X’s pipeline is reflecting larger, franchise type programs. These programs typically leverage all of V2X’s mission critical capabilities. Management noted the 3-year qualified pipeline is now approximately $50 billion in size.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, August 4, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary and Updated Models FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – Refinancing Framework Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q25 Reported With All Three Trials On Schedule Titan International (TWI)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q Results; End Markets Remain Challenging V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – A $4.3 Billion Contract Award
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$3.44 | Price Target: $9) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Post Call Commentary and Updated Models Rating: OUTPERFORM
Mixed Environment. The operating environment remains mixed for ACCO. Americas sales continue to be impacted by tariffs and reduced spending for consumer and business products. The International segment is experiencing less disruption. If we can see some improvement in the environment, we are confident in ACCO’s ability to capture market share.
PowerA. Gaming was a positive contributor in the second quarter following the release of the Nintendo Switch 2, which became the fastest selling gaming console in history in the U.S. and Japan. As a leading third party accessory product assortment supporting the release
FAT Brands (FAT/$2.21 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Refinancing Framework Rating: OUTPERFORM
Refi Discussions. On or about July 9, 2025, FAT Brands entered into a confidentiality agreement with certain Holders of notes issued by the Company’s special purpose, whole business securitization financing subsidiaries. The Confidentiality Agreement facilitated the Company’s ability to engage in discussions with the Holders regarding one or more potential transactions involving a refinancing, restructuring or similar transaction with the Holders. As part of the confidentiality agreement, FAT Brands agreed to publicly disclose certain information, which Thursday’s 8-K accomplished.
First Look. The potential transaction described in the “Cleansing Material” was the Company’s initial proposal to the Holders. An agreement has not yet been reached with the Holders, and we expect negotiations to continue. The disclosed material provides summary term sheets for both FAT Brands’ and Twin Hospitality’s whole business securitizations.
Ocugen (OCGN/$0.99 | Price Target: $8) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 2Q25 Reported With All Three Trials On Schedule Rating: OUTPERFORM
Product Updates All Three Trials Are On Schedule. Ocugen reported a 2Q25 loss of $14.7 million or $(0.05) per share. During the quarter, the clinical trials made progress to keep the products on schedule for 3 BLA filings beginning in 2026. The quarter also included a licensing agreement covering OCU400 in South Korea and the reverse merger to form OthroCellix, a new company focused on regenerative medicine.
OrthoCellix Has Been Formed To Develop NeoCart. Ocugen and Carisma Therapeutics, Inc. announced a reverse merger that will create a new company developing regenerative cellular therapies. As discussed in our Research Note on June 24, NeoCart cellular therapy is outside its main focus. The transaction is expected to close in September-October with the new company valued at $150 million. The Phase 3 pivotal trial is expected to begin in FY2025.
Titan International (TWI/$8.48 | Price Target: $11) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 2Q Results; End Markets Remain Challenging Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q Overview. Titan reported 2Q25 results in-line with management expectations, even in an environment in which the Company’s end markets continue to be impacted by higher interest rates and tariff uncertainty. Significantly, the Company was able to maintain gross and EBITDA margins, which continue to be meaningfully above where they were in the last cyclical trough.
Results. Revenue of $460.8 million was down from $532.2 million a year ago. Lower end market demand in the Ag and Construction markets, along with a temporary slowdown at Titan Specialty, impacted the top line. We had estimated revenue of $480 million. Partly driven by a 431% income tax rate, Titan reported a net loss of $4.5 million, or a loss of $0.07/sh, compared to net income of $2.1 million, or EPS of $0.03/sh, last year. Adjusted loss was $0.02/sh compared to EPS of $0.10 in 2Q24.
V2X (VVX/$47.34 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A $4.3 Billion Contract Award Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Award. V2X, Inc. has been awarded a $4.3 billion indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract by the U.S. Air Force for Contractor Operated and Maintained Supply services in support of the T-6 aircraft. This is one of the largest contracts in V2X history and highlights the Company’s operating capabilities, in our view.
Details. This contract provides support for safe flyable aircraft to meet users’ daily flight schedule and depot requirements consistent with Department of Defense and commercial sector best practices in procuring, producing, and delivering products and services to customers. Work will be performed at a variety of military bases across the continental U.S. and is expected to be completed by July 31, 2034. This contract was a competitive source selection with three offers received.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, August 1, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – First Look into 2Q25 Results Codere Online (CDRO)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Underlying Trends Masked By Currency Fluctuations MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – Expansion into Pennsylvania Perfect (PERF)/OUTPERFORM – Delivers Solid Q2 Top-Line Growth
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$3.75 | Price Target: $12) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 First Look into 2Q25 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q25 Results. ACCO reported 2Q net sales and adjusted EPS in-line with management’s outlook. Revenue of $394.8 million was down 9.9% y-o-y. Comp sales were off 10.5% while favorable forex increased revenue by 0.6%. We had forecasted revenue of $390 million. Gross margin of 32.9% was below our 34.6% estimate. Net income totaled $29.2 million, or $0.31/sh, with adjusted EPS of $0.28 compared to $0.37 in 2Q24. We were at $0.21 and $0.32, respectively.
Drivers. Sales were immediately impacted by tariffs in April, although trends improved throughout the quarter. Net sales were also negatively impacted by softer global demand for consumer and business products, partially offset by growth in gaming accessories. ACCO continued to make progress on its cost cutting initiative, realizing more than $40 million in cumulative cost savings since inception.
Codere Online (CDRO/$8.4 | Price Target: $14) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Strong Underlying Trends Masked By Currency Fluctuations Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q2 results. The company reported second quarter revenue of €54.8 million, up 0.7% over the prior year period and largely in line with our estimate of €55.5 million. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was €2.3 million, up 77% over the prior year period and better than our estimate of €0.1 million. Importantly, the top line results do not fully capture the company’s strong performance in Q2, given the devaluation of the Mexican Peso. On a constant currency basis, revenue was up 12%.
Mexico continues to grow nicely. The company’s operations in Mexico had a strong quarter that was muted by a 19% devaluation of the Peso compared to the prior year period. Notably, the company grew active customers in Mexico by a strong 36% over the prior year period, and revenue was up 23% on a constant currency basis. In our view, the company had a solid quarter in Mexico and top line results should improve as it comps year earlier Peso valuations.
MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.1 | Price Target: $0.25) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Expansion into Pennsylvania Rating: OUTPERFORM
Pennsylvania Entrance. MariMed announced a strategic agreement with TILT Holdings that will expand the distribution of the Company’s award winning portfolio of medical marijuana products to Pennsylvania. We view this as a significant expansion of MariMed’s product line into one of the largest cannabis markets.
Pennsylvania Market. The Pennsylvania cannabis market is estimated at $1.7 billion of annual revenue, making Pennsylvania the sixth largest legal cannabis market in the U.S. Significantly, the state remains a medical state only. When, and if, adult recreational use is approved, the overall cannabis market is projected to at least double. There are currently in excess of 180 medical dispensaries in the state, providing a large potential base to distribute MariMed products into.
Perfect (PERF/$1.96 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Delivers Solid Q2 Top-Line Growth Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 largely in line. The company reported a Q2 revenue of $16.4 million (up an impressive 17.6% year-over-year) and an adj. EBITDA of a loss of $0.5 million. These results were largely in line with our estimates of $16.5 million in revenue and adj. EBITDA of $0.4 million.
Customer growth. The company continues to expand its user base across both B2C and B2B channels. Paying subscribers to its YouCam mobile beauty app rose 4.4% year over year to 960,000, while its B2B footprint grew to 818 brand clients and over 914,000 SKUs, up from 686 clients and 774,000 SKUs a year earlier. The number of Key B2B Customers (those generating at least $50,000 annually), however, declined to 139 from 151, with the drop evenly split between lower spending and customer churn tied to macro pressures.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 31, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Promising Target Zone Identified at the Awacha Copper Target Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – Abstract From A Single Patient Is Not A Safety Concern FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – Reports 2Q25 Results MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – An Offering and Other Changes to Capital Structure
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.11 | Price Target: $0.4) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Promising Target Zone Identified at the Awacha Copper Target Rating: OUTPERFORM
Mapping program at Awacha. In 2024, an Anaconda-style mapping program was completed over a 17-square kilometer area at the Awacha porphyry copper target in Ecuador. A total of more than 2,200 outcrops were studied and described by field geologists and subsequently compiled into a database. Interpretation of the data was finalized in early June, and the company engaged porphyry copper expert Dr. Steve Garwin to review the mapping data and identify the most promising porphyry targets in the Awacha area. Dr. Garwin has been associated with several major discoveries, including the Alpala porphyry copper-gold deposit at the Cascabel project in Ecuador.
Large zone of interest. Following the mapping program, a large zone of hydrothermal alteration that is greater than six kilometers by four kilometers was revealed during a review and interpretation of the data. The area of interest, coincident with magnetic and conductive anomalies that indicate the potential for porphyry mineralization, warrants additional field work to refine hole locations for a future drill program.
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$3.16 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Abstract From A Single Patient Is Not A Safety Concern Rating: OUTPERFORM
We Look Forward To Data At The World Transplant Congress. Eledon is scheduled to present interim data from its Phase 1b study at the World Transplant Congress (WTC), to be held August 2 to 6. We have also seen an abstract discussing a single patient in the Phase 2 BESTOW trial that had an unrelated fungal infection. While we do not consider the abstract to be significant, it may have raised safety concerns for investors.
WTC Abstract From One Patient May Have Been Misinterpreted. The abstract discusses “a unique case of pulmonary mucomycosis” in a patient enrolled in the Phase 2 BESTOW trial. Four weeks after receiving a kidney transplant and the tegoprubart regimen, he developed fever due to a rare fungal infection that was treated and resolved. “The patient remained on tegoprubart infusions and showed evidence of clinical improvement, without evidence of rejection or infection at follow-up visits”, stated the abstract.
FAT Brands (FAT/$2.38 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Reports 2Q25 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q25 Results. Revenue of $146.8 million declined 3.4% y-o-y, but was above our $141 million estimate. The revenue decline was driven by a decrease in restaurant revenue resulting from the closure of five underperforming Smokey Bones locations, the temporary closure of one Smokey Bones location for conversion into a Twin Peaks lodge, and lower same-store sales, partially offset by the opening of new Twin Peaks lodges. FAT Brands reported a net loss of $54.2 million, or a loss of $3.17/sh, compared to a net loss of $39.4 million, or a loss of $2.43/sh, last year. We had projected a net loss of $46 million or a loss of $2.56/sh.
Pipeline and Openings. The development pipeline remains robust with roughly 1,000 signed deals. Eighteen new locations opened during the quarter, with FAT Brands well positioned to see 100 locations open in 2025. The opening of new locations will help drive go-forward adjusted EBITDA for the Company.
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.54) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 An Offering and Other Changes to Capital Structure Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Capital Structure. MustGrow announced a series of changes to be made to its capital structure including (i) a non-brokered private placement of up to 4,285,715 units of the Company (ii) the proposed repricing of outstanding share purchase warrants issued pursuant to its January 16, 2025 private placement and (iii) its intention to offer shares for debt settlement to all holders of unsecured convertible debentures issued pursuant to its January 16, 2025 private placement.
“LIFE” Offering. The 4,285,715 units will be offered at a price of CAD$0.70 per unit for gross proceeds of up to $3.0 million. Each unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant exercisable for 60 months at an exercise price of $0.90 per warrant. Net proceeds will be used for inventory production of TerraSante, inventory for agricultural products to sell via its Canadian distribution platform, NexusBioAg, and working capital and general corporate purposes.
Second quarter financial results. Alliance reported second quarter adjusted EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $161.9 million and $0.46, respectively, compared to $181.4 million and $0.77 during the prior year period. We had projected EBITDA and EPU of $159.8 million and $0.57. Reported earnings per unit include a $25 million non-cash impairment charge. Total revenue amounted to $547.5 million compared to $593.4 million during the prior year period and our $577.4 million estimate. The variance compared to our revenue estimate was largely due to lower coal sales.
Outlook for the remainder of 2025 and 2026. Management increased the top end of 2025 coal tonnage sales guidance, kept overall coal sales price expectations intact, and lowered guidance for segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold. Notably, oil and gas royalty volume expectations were increased, while segment adjusted EBITDA expense as a percentage of oil and gas royalty revenues was decreased to 14% from 15%. While management expects the average coal sales price per ton to trend lower in 2026 due to higher-priced contracts rolling off, longwall moves in 2025 and actions to improve productivity and cost effectiveness are expected to offset the impact of lower prices.
FAT Brands (FAT/$2.4 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Charges Dropped Rating: OUTPERFORM
Charges Dropped. Last night, FAT Brands announced that the United States Attorney for the Central District of California has filed a motion to dismiss all charges against Andrew Wiederhorn, FAT Brands, Rebecca Hershinger, and William Amon. This is a major development in our view, not only removing significant ongoing related legal fees for FAT Brands, but also any lingering reputational risk investors may have had related to the action. It remains to be seen if last night’s action will result in a similar favorable resolution to the SEC civil action.
Background. The original charges from the U.S. District Attorney were filed back in May 2024, while, simultaneously, the SEC filed a civil complaint accusing Mr. Wiederhorn of using FAT cash to fund his lifestyle, while falsely telling the Company’s auditors, Board of Directors, and investors that neither he nor his family members had any direct or indirect material interest in the FAT cash used by Mr. Wiederhorn for personal expenditures.
Graham (GHM/$55.46 | Price Target: $52) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 $25.5 Million Follow-on Order Rating: OUTPERFORM
Follow-on Order. Yesterday, Graham Corporation announced the Company was awarded a follow-on order to produce critical hardware for the MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight torpedo program. This was a sole sourced award. Graham typically receives an annual order for this program once funding is approved for the current year’s supply.
MK48 Program. The follow-on order is valued at approximately $25.5 million. Graham manufactures and tests the alternators and regulators for the MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight torpedo through its Barber-Nichols subsidiary. We believe there are two more option years remaining under the current program in which 50-120 MK 48s are produced annually.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 29, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Not the Best Way to Stimulate Mining Investment in Ecuador GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q25 Reported With MVA and Gedeptin Trial Updates
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.1 | Price Target: $0.4) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Not the Best Way to Stimulate Mining Investment in Ecuador Rating: OUTPERFORM
New mining service fee. Ecuador implemented a new mining service fee, Tasa de Fiscalizacion Minera (TASA), on the resource sector. Aurania received notice of the fee associated with its project in Ecuador. The Ecuadorian Control and Regulation Agency (ARCOM) has requested payment of US$2,012,618 by July 31, 2025, representing one month of the total annual fee of US$24,151,420, to help fund ARCOM’s efforts. Because we do not anticipate significant negative repercussions associated with deferring payment, we think Aurania will withhold payment until it becomes clear whether TASA will stand in its current form.
TASA is being challenged. The new fee represents a significant cost burden for junior exploration companies. Multiple constitutional challenges have been filed in Ecuador and are being analyzed by the Court to determine if the claims will be accepted, which could take several months.If accepted, the constitutional challenges could take several years, and ARCOM may or may not be directed to suspend the collection of fees until claims are resolved. Reasonable accommodations will likely need to be made.
GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$0.74 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 2Q25 Reported With MVA and Gedeptin Trial Updates Rating: OUTPERFORM
GeoVax Reports 2Q25 Financials With Updates Trials For MVA and Gedeptin. GeoVax reported a 2Q25 loss of $5.4 million or $(0.35) per share. Revenues of $0.9 million were for work performed under the BARDA contract prior to its cancellation in April 2025. During the quarter, the EMEA communicated that the GEO-MVA vaccine in development for smallpox/Mpox could skip Phase 1 and 2, then receive approval based on Phase 3 immune markers. The company also amended its trial plans for Gedeptin in HNSCC.
GEO-MVA Phase 3 Is Expected To Begin In 2H26. As discussed in our Research Note on June 17,GeoVax received Scientific Advice (SA) from the EMA for GEO-MVA smallpox/Mpox vaccine stating the Phase 1 and 2 studies would not been needed. An MAA will only require a single Phase 3 immuno-bridging trial comparing the immune response in healthy volunteers receiving GEO-MVA against the approved vaccine. The study is expected to begin in 2H26.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, July 28, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Strong 4Q; But Environment Still Recovering
Resources Connection (RGP/$5.79 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Strong 4Q; But Environment Sill Recovering Rating: OUTPERFORM
4Q25 Results. Results came in above guidance. Revenue was $139.3 million, versus a high end guide of $137 million and exceeded our $132 million estimate. Gross margin of 40.2% was also above the high end of guidance, was flat y-o-y, and above our 37% estimate. The bottom line was impacted by a $69 million goodwill impairment charge, resulting in a loss of $2.23/sh for the quarter. Adjusted EPS was $0.16 versus $0.28 in 4Q24 and was above our estimate and the consensus estimate of a loss of $0.01/sh. Adjusted EBITDA was $9.8 million, above our $2.4 million estimate.
Pipeline. While overall pipeline contracted during the quarter, pipeline creation efforts grew in all regions with a higher volume of larger value deals. RGP secured multiple new opportunities exceeding $1 million and expanded the number of $1 million-plus projects in the pipeline relative to the same quarter last year. The Company is also seeing growing momentum in larger opportunities, each exceeding $5 million.
Second quarter estimates. We are lowering our Q2 2025 revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates to $11.4 million and a loss of $1.23, respectively, from $14.1 million and a loss of $0.76. Additionally, we are reducing our operating expenses to $13.0 million from $14.4 million, as dry docking expenses have been pushed into the third quarter. Despite lower operating expenses, we are decreasing our adjusted EBITDA estimate to $1.6 million from $2.9 million. The decrease in our earnings estimates is mainly due to lower-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rates.
Full-Year 2025 estimates. We are lowering our 2025 revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates to $46.0 million and a loss of $4.41, respectively, from $50.3 million and a loss of $3.79. We are trimming our operating expenses to $51.4 million from $51.8 million, due to lower expected voyage expenses. Our adjusted EBITDA estimates were lowered to $5.6 million from $9.3 million. The lower estimates are driven by soft market rates.
Updating second quarter estimates. We are raising our second quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates to $56.7 million and $3.87, respectively, from $54.0 million and $3.45. Additionally, we are increasing our adjusted EBITDA estimate to $38.5 million from $35.0 million. The upward revisions are driven by stronger-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rates.
Full-year 2025 estimates. For the full-year 2025, we expect higher revenues and adjusted earnings per share estimates of $228.5 million and $15.47, respectively, up from $225.6 million and $15.05. We are raising our operating expense estimates to $83.0 million from $81.7 million, due to higher dry-docking expenses. Our full year adjusted EBITDA estimate has been increased to $153.1 million from $149.2 million. The increases in our estimates are largely due to higher TCE rates.
FreightCar America (RAIL/$11.54 | Price Target: $16) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Updating Our Forward Estimates and Increasing our PT Rating: OUTPERFORM
Increasing longer-term rail car delivery estimates. While we have maintained our rail car delivery estimates for 2025 through 2027, we have increased our delivery estimates for 2028 through 2030. We now forecast rail car deliveries of 5,500, 5,750, and 6,000, respectively, compared with our prior estimates of 5,000, 5,000, and 5,000. While we had previously assumed that RAIL would operate four production lines with an aggregate capacity of 5,000 rail cars through 2030, we now assume the company will operate five production lines with a total capacity of 6,250 rail cars beginning in 2028. Our prior assumption had been that the company could begin producing a new line of higher-margin tank cars using existing capacity at the expense of lower margin products. Because we think tank cars could add an incremental 500 or more orders beginning in 2028, the tank cars would be incremental to existing orders with five production lines.
Updating earnings estimates. We forecast 2025 EBITDA and EPS of $45.9 million and $0.47, respectively, while our 2026 estimates are $48.6 million and $0.53. While our 2025 and 2026 EBITDA estimates are unchanged, we have increased our forward estimates, which may be found in the financial model at the end of this report. While our earnings estimates have increased, gross margin as a percentage of sales remains unchanged at 13.0%, 13.3%, 13.5%, and 13.8% in 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2030, respectively, while selling, general, and administrative expense as a percentage of sales increased modestly.
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$7 | Price Target: $9) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Updating Estimates and Market Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second Quarter 2025 Estimate Revisions. We are raising our Q2 2025 net revenue forecast to $36.5 million from $35.9 million, driven by stronger-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rates. However, we are lowering our adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $16.7 million and $0.11, respectively, from $17.3 million and $0.17, reflecting higher operating expenses of $29.1 million versus $27.5 million previously. The increase reflects a full quarter of the expanded fleet as well as higher-than-expected dry-docking activity.
Full-Year 2025 Estimate Changes. We are increasing our 2025 revenue forecast to $143.4 million from $142.9 million, as we expect improving rate momentum to continue through year-end. We are also raising our operating expense estimate to $113.9 million from $109.4 million, reflecting a greater number of anticipated dry-docking days. As a result, we are lowering our adjusted EBITDA projection to $67.7 million from $70.5 million and our EPS estimate to $0.51 from $0.74.
Travelzoo (TZOO/$12.55 | Price Target: $26) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Steps On The Customer Acquisition Accelerator Rating: OUTPERFORM
Mixed second quarter results. Revenues significantly increased 13.1% to $23.9 million, a sequential quarterly increase from 5.3% in Q1, reflecting its strategic shift toward a subscription based model. Adj. EBITDA fell short of our expectations, however, due to a step up in customer acquisition spend and the purchase of “distressed” vouchers.
Favorable customer acquisition dynamics. Customer acquisition costs went up in Q2 to $38 from $28 in Q1, but still remains positive. Total return is $58, $40 from the annual subscription fee and $18 from transactions. Management anticipates to continue to aggressively spend on customer acquisition in light of the favorable Return on Investment. These moves support a longer term attractive revenue outlook, but have a near term adverse impact on adj. EBITDA.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 23, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI)/OUTPERFORM – Improving Oncology Treatment While Cutting Costs
The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI/$3.54 | Price Target: $8) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Improving Oncology Treatment While Cutting Costs Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating Coverage of The Oncology Institute With An Outperform Rating. The Oncology Institute of Hope & Innovation (TOI) is a medical practice management company specializing in community-based oncology practices. It manages and operates oncology clinics in five states using its proprietary, value-based methodology. These treatment regimens have improved outcomes for patients while reducing the cost of care.
TOI Uses Capitated Contracts To Control Costs. TOI enters into contracts with third-party payers to treat a specified number of health plan members based on the estimated per-member, per-month cost. This method of providing coverage based on population size is known as capitation. It also offers traditional fee-for-service as well as value-based oncology care. This provides TOI with the flexibility to contract with more insurance plans.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 22, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Angel Island Lithium Carbonate Proves its Value Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Our Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation; Raising Price Target
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.25 | Price Target: $2.35) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Angel Island Lithium Carbonate Proves its Value Rating: OUTPERFORM
Lithium-metal anodes. Century Lithium announced that Alpha-En Corporation successfully converted Century’s lithium carbonate into battery-grade lithium-metal anodes for use in lithium-ion batteries. The lithium-metal anodes were produced using 99.8% pure lithium carbonate from Century’s Angel Island project and demonstration plant. The sample was converted by Alpha-En into lithium metal using Alpha-En’s patented conversion process.
LFP 18650 battery cells. Earlier in the month, Century announced that First Phosphate Corp. produced commercial-grade lithium iron phosphate (LFP) 18650 battery cells using North American critical minerals, including lithium carbonate sourced from Century’s Angel Island project and demonstration plant, along with high-purity phosphoric acid and iron powder from First Phosphate’s Begin-Lamarche property in Quebec. The LFP 18650 battery cells were assembled for First Phosphate by Ultion Technologies at their pilot facility in Nevada.
The Merritt Mill is processing ore. Nicola Mining’s (TSX.V: NIM, OTCQB: HUSIF) 100% owned Merritt Mill in British Columbia recently began milling and processing ore from Talisker Resources Ltd.’s (TSX: TSK, OTCQX: TSKFF) Mustang mine to produce gold and silver concentrate. On May 11, Talisker began trucking material to the Craigmont Mill. The commencement of milling operations marked Nicola’s transition to a long-term production plan and sustained revenue and cash flow generation.
Flow-through financing. Nicola Mining raised gross proceeds of C$2,175,000 with a non-brokered private placement of 4,350,000 units at a price of C$0.50 per unit. Each unit consists of one flow-through common share and one-half of one non-flow-through common share purchase warrant. Each warrant is exercisable at a price of C$0.65 and expires two years from the date of issuance. The financing was oversubscribed by a total of 350,000 units or C$175,000. Proceeds will be used to fund exploration at the company’s New Craigmont Copper Project.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, July 21, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Estimates and a First Look at 2026
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$7.4 | Price Target: $15) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Increasing Estimates and a First Look at 2026 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Company strategy. Despite the recent improvement in oil prices, InPlay is maintaining its 2025 production guidance at 16,000 to 16,800 boe/d. Management reiterated that the strategy remains centered on capital discipline, prioritizing debt reduction over production growth. The company’s approach is supported by fluctuating oil prices and the performance of assets acquired from Obsidian Energy, which have demonstrated low decline rates and continue to well-exceed type curve expectations. Recall that as part of the transaction, Obsidian Energy received InPlay shares as part of the consideration.
Non-binding offer. InPlay Oil announced that Obsidian Energy has entered into a non-binding agreement with a third party for the sale of its entire position in InPlay, totaling 9,139,784 common shares. The proposed transaction is expected to occur at a premium to InPlay’s share price as of July 15, 2025. While the parties remain in discussions, no binding agreement has been finalized at this time.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, July 18, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – More News; Updated Model
Bit Digital (BTBT/$4.01 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 More News; Updated Model Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updated Model. Earlier this week, Bit Digital announced preliminary revenue for 2Q25 in the $24.3-$26.9 million range, which is modestly below our and consensus estimates. The difference, in our view, is likely driven by the push to the right of some contracts. We are not too concerned as of now, as we expect the contracts to come online this year.
Adjusted Numbers. We lowered our 2Q revenue expectation to $25.3 million from a prior $31.6 million, with the biggest change coming in the Cloud Services and Mining line items. Net loss is now at $4.4 million, or $0.02/sh, versus a prior loss of $1.4 million, or $0.01/sh.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 16, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Extending a Track Record of Returning Capital to Shareholders SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Temporary Pressure, Strong Path Forward The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Amends Senior Revolving Credit Facility
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.41 | Price Target: $2.4) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Extending a Track Record of Returning Capital to Shareholders Rating: OUTPERFORM
Special dividend. Hemisphere Energy declared a special dividend of C$0.03 per common share that is payable on August 15 to shareholders of record as of July 31. It is in addition to the company’s quarterly base dividend of C$0.025 per common share and is Hemisphere’s second special dividend payment in 2025.
Normal course issuer bid. Hemisphere Energy recently announced that the TSX Venture Exchange had accepted its notice to renew its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) to purchase for cancellation up to 7,934,731 common shares. Purchases will be made on the open market at prevailing market prices through the TSXV. The NCIB commenced on July 14, 2025, and will terminate on July 13, 2026.
SelectQuote (SLQT/$2.23 | Price Target: $7) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Temporary Pressure, Strong Path Forward Rating: OUTPERFORM
Setting up fiscal 2026. We are adjusting our fiscal Q4 estimates to reflect updated expectations for the Medicare Advantage market, with a particular focus on recent regulatory changes affecting Special Needs Plans (SNPs). While these developments introduce near-term challenges, we believe SelectQuote is well-positioned heading into fiscal 2026. We expect the company to rebuild agent capacity ahead of the next Annual Enrollment Period (AEP), to support a trajectory of sustained revenue growth and adj. EBITDA margin expansion.
Special Needs changes. Our revised Q4 outlook is primarily driven by recent changes implemented by CMS that restructure Special Needs Plan switching rights. The policy shift narrows mid-year enrollment flexibility for a significant portion of dual-eligible consumers (those enrolled in non-integrated D-SNPs), leading to the prospect of a smaller pool of shopping beneficiaries during the middle of calendar 2025. In addition, we are accounting for SelectQuote’s reduced year-over-year agent count, which entered fiscal 2025 approximately 22% below the prior-year level due to capital constraints at the time. These factors combined create a more muted backdrop for near-term Medicare Advantage performance.
The GEO Group (GEO/$25.04 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Amends Senior Revolving Credit Facility Rating: OUTPERFORM
Amended Facility. The GEO Group announced amendments to its April 2024 Credit Agreement that provide enhanced flexibility, better terms, and an extended maturity. Along with the additional payments on the outstanding debt, GEO has taken another step closer to being able to return capital to shareholders, in our view.
Details. The Amendment increases GEO’s revolver commitments from $310 million to $450 million and extends the maturity to July 14, 2030. The Amendment further provides that interest will accrue on outstanding revolving credit loans at a rate determined with reference to the Company’s total leverage ratio, which, as of today, reduces the rate by 0.50% from the prior applicable rate. The Amendment also increases GEO’s capacity to make restricted payments over the next five years.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 15, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – A Compelling Transaction
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$10.29 | Price Target: $17.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | A Compelling Transaction Rating: OUTPERFORM
Purchases real estate. The company announced that it purchased the real estate of 58 existing bowling centers for $306 million from Carlyle Group, its main sale leaseback partner. The real estate is located in California, Illinois, Georgia, Arizona, and Colorado. With the purchase, the company now owns roughly 75 of its over 350 bowling centers.
Financing set. The company amended its existing credit facility to provide a bridge loan of $230 million towards the purchase. Cash was used for the remaining purchase amount. We believe that the company will reduce the bridge loan over the course of the next year through free cash flow generation.
First quarter financial results. For the first quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2026, AZZ reported adjusted net income of $53.8 million or $1.78 per share compared to $44.0 million or $1.46 per share during the prior year period and our estimate of $50.1 million or $1.66 per share. Compared to the first quarter of FY 2025, sales increased 2.1% to $422.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 13.1% to $106.4 million, representing 25.2% of sales compared to 22.8% of sales during the prior year period.
Updating estimates. We have increased our FY 2026 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $388.3 million and $6.00, respectively, from $381.7 million and $5.83. In FY 2026, our estimates reflect average gross margins of 30.0% and 20.3% for the Metal Coatings and Precoat Metals segments, respectively. Moreover, we have published our estimates for 2027 through 2031 in the back of this report. Our forward estimates reflect an average 30.5% gross margin as a percentage of sales for the Metal Coatings segment, compared to the prior average of 28.0%. The average gross margin as a percentage of sales for the Precoat Metals business is unchanged at 20.3%.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$51.71 | Price Target: $60) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Fast Tracked Drone Opportunity; Raising PT Rating: OUTPERFORM
Directive. Building on President Trump’s June 6th Executive Order to Unleash American Drone Dominance, this past week Defense Secretary Hegseth signed a memo removing restrictive policies on drone innovation. By leveraging savings from DOGE, the DOD will help power a technological leapfrog and bolster the U.S. drone industry by approving hundreds of made-in-America drone products for purchase by the military. These goals play right into Kratos’ wheelhouse, in our view.
New Focus. The directive focuses on three key areas: strengthening the U.S. drone manufacturing base, arming combat units with a variety of low-cost drones, and ensuring those combat units are well-trained on how to use them. Kratos has been expanding its drone production capabilities, which the recent capital raise will turbocharge. Its drone technology is proven and available today, and the Company is the leader in providing target drones to the military.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 10, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2026 Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – Meeting Highlights Tegoprubart Data Milestones and New Indications
AZZ (AZZ/$100.73 | Price Target: $112) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2026 Rating: OUTPERFORM
FY 2026 first quarter financial results. AZZ reported adjusted net income of $53.8 million or $1.78 per share compared to $44.0 million or $1.46 per share during the prior year period. We had forecast adjusted net income of $50.1 million or $1.66 per share. Compared to the first quarter of FY 2025, sales increased 2.1% to $422.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 13.1% to $106.4 million, representing 25.2% of sales compared to 22.8% of sales during the prior year period. We had projected adjusted EBITDA of $99.5 million.
Meaningful debt reduction. Cash from operations during the fiscal first quarter amounted to $314.8 million, including proceeds of $273.2 million received from AVAIL’s sale of the Electrical Products Group. Following debt reduction of $285.4 million, AZZ ended the quarter with a net leverage ratio of 1.7x TTM adjusted EBITDA. As of May 31, long-term debt, gross was $614.9 million compared to $900.3 million on February 28. Net of unamortized debt issuance costs, long-term debt was $569.8 million on May 31 compared to $852.4 million on February 28.
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$3.4 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Meeting Highlights Tegoprubart Data Milestones and New Indications Rating: OUTPERFORM
R&D Day Highlighted Science, Current Trials, Future Indications. We attended the Eledon R&D Day on July 9 to hear and evaluate the progress in tegoprubart development. The presentations focused on the current clinical indications in renal transplantation, islet cell transplantation, xenotransplants, and plans for liver and other solid organ transplants. Conference presentation dates for upcoming data announcements were also announced.
Phase 1b Data Update Is Planned For August. The Phase 1b open-label trial has been expanded to enroll up to 36 patients, an increase from the original 9 patients. Data is scheduled for presentation at the World Transplant Congress on August 9, 2025. Previous data presentations have included 13 patients. We expect to see follow-up data from more patients treated longer, with data from additional patients beyond the initial 12-month trial duration.
Updating estimates. We are increasing our 2025 adjusted EBITDA and EPU estimates to $676.5 million and $2.55, respectively, from $672.6 million and $2.52. We increased our crude oil and natural gas price estimates based on CME futures settlements, which had a positive impact on oil and gas royalty revenue. Our 2026 adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates are unchanged at $678.3 million and $2.60, respectively. While management expects the average coal sales price per ton to trend lower in 2026 due to higher-priced contracts rolling off, we think 2025 longwall moves and actions to improve productivity and cost effectiveness could help offset the impact of lower prices.
Recent legislation expected to benefit the fossil fuel industry. Following several executive orders earlier in the year intended to support the coal industry and delay coal power plant retirements, the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) was signed into law on July 4 and is expected to benefit the fossil fuel industry. Among other things, the BBB phases out many of the clean energy tax credits established under the Inflation Reduction Act and creates a supportive environment for oil, gas, and coal production.
E.W. Scripps (SSP/$3.42 | Price Target: $10) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Strengthening Its Station Portfolio Rating: OUTPERFORM
Compelling station swap. Scripps will be selling its stations in Lansing MI and Lafayette LA to Gray Television (GTN: Not Rated) and buying stations in Colorado Springs, CO and Grand Junction, CO and a station in Twin Falls ID. We view the move favorably, given that Scripps will create station duopolies and strengthen its presence in the West. We believe that the move will create significant efficiencies for both companies, eliminating back office, duplicative, and overhead costs. This will be an even swap with no cash compensation to either party.
FCC fast track? The FCC has signaled its willingness to fast track the regulatory process, likely to provide a “waiver” to create duopolies rather than to seek a longer review/rulemaking process. As such, we believe that the transaction could be completed by year end.
Xcel Brands (XELB/$1.58 | Price Target: $9) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Seeking Fuel For Growth Rating: OUTPERFORM
Files S1. The company plans to sell 1.381 million shares on a “best efforts” basis and pre-funded warrants. Pre-funded warrants are exercisable at any time after the date of issuance and may be exercised at any time. Notably, management has indicated its interest in participating in the offering for up to 10% of the shares. Following the prospective sale, total shares outstanding would increase to 3.819 million shares.
Use of proceeds. Based on the current stock price and assuming all shares are sold, management expects to generate roughly $1.9 million in net proceeds from the offering. The company plans to use the proceeds for working capital and general corporate purposes and toward a $50,000 principal loan payment to a company controlled by Robert D’Loren, the company’s Chairman and CEO.
Fresh inflation data released Friday, August 29, 2025, showed that prices ticked higher in July but remained in line with forecasts, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will move forward with an interest rate cut in September.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed that core prices—excluding food and energy—rose 2.9% year-over-year, the highest since February and up from 2.8% in June. On a monthly basis, core PCE climbed 0.3%. The headline index increased 2.6% annually and 0.2% month-over-month.
While inflation is still running above the Fed’s 2% target, the pace was anticipated by markets, easing fears of a policy shift. Energy costs declined 2.7% from a year earlier, while food prices rose just 1.9%. Services remained the main driver of inflation, advancing 3.6% compared with a modest 0.5% increase in goods.
Despite higher prices, consumer activity remained resilient. Personal spending grew 0.5% in July, matching forecasts, while personal income rose 0.4%. The strength in household demand suggests that U.S. consumers continue to support the economy even as tariffs and price pressures persist.
The figures indicate that recent tariff measures imposed by President Donald Trump, including a 10% baseline levy on imports and reciprocal duties on key trading partners, are filtering through the economy but not yet significantly curbing demand.
While inflation remains slightly elevated, policymakers have shifted their focus to the labor market. Payroll data for July revealed slower job creation and downward revisions to previous months, raising concerns that employment growth may be softening more sharply than anticipated. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted last week that both labor supply and demand are cooling, increasing the risk of higher unemployment.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his support for a 25-basis-point cut in September, noting that downside labor risks outweigh modest inflation pressures. He added that he would consider a larger move if August employment data, due September 5, shows further weakening.
Markets continue to price in a strong likelihood of a September 17 rate cut, with traders expecting a quarter-point reduction. Analysts suggest that unless upcoming inflation releases—such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) in mid-September—surprise sharply to the upside, policymakers will move ahead with easing.
Equities remained under pressure following the release, with the S&P 500 down around 0.7% in midday trading. Treasury yields held firm, reflecting expectations for lower borrowing costs in the months ahead.
For investors, the Fed’s path suggests a supportive environment for equities, particularly small- and mid-cap firms that benefit most from lower financing costs. Fixed income markets may also find support as yields adjust lower. Meanwhile, commodities such as gold are likely to retain a bid, with lower rates reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
The bottom line: while inflation remains above target, the Fed appears set to prioritize employment risks, keeping September’s policy meeting squarely on track for a rate cut.
The U.S. government’s surprise move to take a nearly 10% stake in Intel has raised fresh questions about whether similar investments could be directed toward defense contractors. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled this week that defense remains a central area of discussion, citing its deep ties to government funding and its strategic importance to national security.
The comments sent shares of major defense primes such as Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman higher, underscoring how sensitive the sector is to policy developments. But beyond the established giants, investors are now weighing whether small-cap defense firms could become the next beneficiaries of heightened federal interest.
Unlike the household names of the defense world, many smaller contractors play critical yet less visible roles in the military supply chain. These firms often specialize in advanced components, niche technologies, cybersecurity solutions, or unmanned systems. With Washington openly considering how to finance munitions acquisitions and strengthen industrial capacity, smaller players could find themselves on stronger footing.
For small-cap stocks, the potential upside comes from two angles. First, government scrutiny of prime contractors could create opportunities for subcontractors to capture a greater share of defense budgets. If policy shifts encourage more competition in procurement, companies developing next-generation drones, satellite systems, or precision components could see contracts flow their way. Second, direct or indirect investment by the U.S. could help shore up balance sheets and provide access to growth capital that is often scarce in the sector.
The Intel deal also signals a broader shift in Washington’s approach to industrial policy. By taking an equity stake rather than simply providing subsidies, the government aligned its financial interests with a major company’s success. If similar mechanisms are applied in defense, even at smaller scales, it could transform the risk–reward profile for publicly traded small-cap contractors. Investors would be betting not just on execution, but on the implicit backing of federal policy.
Still, risks remain. The defense sector is highly regulated, and the prospect of deeper government involvement raises questions about oversight and shareholder rights. The Intel deal gave the U.S. no board seat or governance role, but uncertainty lingers over how similar arrangements might play out in defense. Additionally, defense budgets are subject to political cycles, making small-cap firms vulnerable to swings in appropriations and shifting strategic priorities.
Market reaction to Lutnick’s remarks illustrates how policy talk alone can move stocks, but investors should be cautious about reading too much into early signals. Large primes like Lockheed Martin remain deeply entrenched as key suppliers, and any structural changes would take time to ripple through the industry. For smaller contractors, however, the current environment could present a rare window of opportunity.
If the government follows through on exploring new financing models for defense, small-cap stocks could benefit disproportionately, gaining visibility, liquidity, and growth momentum. For investors willing to tolerate the volatility, Lutnick’s comments may have opened the door to a new chapter in defense-sector investing—one where the biggest opportunities lie not only with the giants, but with the up-and-coming firms that keep the supply chain moving.
Crescent Energy Company (NYSE: CRGY) has struck a $3.1 billion all-stock deal to acquire Vital Energy, Inc. (NYSE: VTLE), positioning the combined business as one of the top 10 independent oil and gas producers in the United States. The merger, unanimously approved by both companies’ boards, will establish a scaled operator with a strategy anchored in free cash flow generation, disciplined capital allocation, and shareholder returns.
The agreement values Vital at a modest premium, with its shareholders receiving 1.9062 shares of Crescent Class A common stock for each Vital share. Upon closing, Crescent shareholders will own roughly 77% of the combined entity, while Vital investors will hold about 23%. The deal, inclusive of Vital’s net debt, represents a significant consolidation move in the energy sector, with closing targeted by year-end 2025 pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.
The transaction is framed as accretive across all major financial metrics, with Crescent projecting $90 million to $100 million in annual synergies right out of the gate. The company also sees room for additional efficiencies as operations are integrated. The deal strengthens Crescent’s already formidable position in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and Uinta basins, giving it more than a decade of high-quality drilling inventory and greater flexibility in capital deployment.
Management emphasized that the acquisition fits squarely within Crescent’s long-standing strategy: acquiring assets at attractive valuations, running them with lower activity levels, and emphasizing free cash flow and sustainable shareholder returns. The merger will also advance Crescent’s goal of sharpening its balance sheet, supported by a $1 billion pipeline of planned non-core asset sales.
The combined company is expected to become the largest U.S. liquids-weighted producer without an investment-grade rating, but Crescent’s leadership underscored its line of sight toward achieving that milestone in the coming years. With the expanded scale and diversified asset base, executives believe the business will be better positioned to weather commodity cycles while maintaining peer-leading dividends.
For Vital, the deal represents both recognition of its progress and an opportunity to accelerate growth. By merging into Crescent’s platform, Vital gains access to broader capital allocation flexibility and a proven framework for free cash flow optimization. The addition of Vital’s resources is anticipated to further strengthen Crescent’s ability to generate stable returns even as the energy sector faces volatility in prices and regulatory pressures.
Governance of the new company will reflect the integration, with Crescent expanding its board to 12 members, including two directors from Vital. John Goff will remain Crescent’s non-executive chairman, and David Rockecharlie will continue as chief executive officer. Headquarters will stay in Houston, reinforcing Crescent’s position as a central player in the U.S. energy heartland.
With U.S. oil and gas companies under increasing pressure to deliver efficiency and capital discipline, this merger highlights the ongoing consolidation trend across the sector. By combining two mid-cap operators into a top-tier independent, Crescent is betting that scale, synergies, and a relentless focus on free cash flow will be the winning formula for long-term shareholder value.
Markets are experiencing a rare moment in financial history. Nearly every major benchmark or asset class is sitting at record levels — from the Dow Jones and Nasdaq to gold, Bitcoin, housing values, rents, IPOs, and merger activity. Even the U.S. national debt has climbed to historic highs. The only notable exception is the Russell 2000 small-cap index, which has lagged behind its larger-cap peers.
This convergence of highs across so many areas raises critical questions: Is this sustainable, and where should investors look next?
At the heart of the rally is anticipation. Inflation has eased enough for Wall Street to believe the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in the coming months. Markets tend to price in expectations before policy changes occur, which explains why equities, real estate, and digital assets have surged despite borrowing costs still being elevated.
Corporate strength is also contributing. Tech giants continue to deliver outsized earnings, fueling growth in the Nasdaq, while strong balance sheets across industries are powering mergers and acquisitions at a record pace. Investors aren’t just chasing momentum; they’re betting on resilient fundamentals.
Interestingly, the surge is not limited to risk assets. Gold and Bitcoin, often viewed as hedges against uncertainty, have also reached record highs. That signals investors are not fully comfortable with the backdrop of ballooning U.S. debt, currency volatility, and geopolitical tensions.
In short, markets are climbing on optimism — but they’re also hedging.
The biggest challenge is valuation. Equities trading at record levels are vulnerable if earnings slow or if rate cuts fail to materialize. Housing markets, while supported by supply shortages, remain stretched on affordability. IPOs and M&A often peak late in a cycle, suggesting companies may be capitalizing on favorable conditions before they shift.
The Federal Reserve is the wild card. If policymakers cut rates in September as many expect, small-cap stocks — represented by the Russell 2000 — could see sharp gains. These companies are more sensitive to borrowing costs and have lagged during the tightening cycle. Conversely, if the Fed holds rates steady or signals fewer cuts, markets could face a correction.
Where Investors Should Look
Given the uncertainty, balance is essential. Investors might consider:
Small Caps (Russell 2000): The one major index not at record highs, offering upside potential if rates decline.
Defensive Dividend Stocks: Companies with consistent cash flow in healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities provide resilience.
Gold and Bitcoin: Effective hedges amid debt concerns and potential dollar weakness.
Global Diversification: International markets, many of which trade at lower valuations, offer opportunity.
Cash and Treasuries: With attractive short-term yields, keeping dry powder for potential volatility makes sense.
Markets are in uncharted territory, with nearly everything at record highs. Optimism about rate cuts and earnings strength is driving the surge, but stretched valuations and policy uncertainty suggest caution. Investors who balance growth exposure with hedges and defensive positions may be best positioned for what comes next.
Guess?, Inc. (NYSE: GES) will exit public markets after agreeing to a $1.4 billion buyout led by its co-founders and Authentic Brands Group, in a move that highlights the growing shift of heritage fashion labels into private ownership backed by global licensing platforms.
The transaction values Guess? at $16.75 per share, representing a premium of about 73% to the company’s unaffected stock price as of mid-March. The offer ranks among the year’s largest fashion buyouts, underscoring the resilience of brand-driven retail even in a challenging consumer environment.
Under the terms of the agreement, Authentic Brands will acquire a majority stake in Guess?’s intellectual property portfolio, while the Marciano family and CEO Carlos Alberini will retain the remaining interest. The operating company, which runs Guess?’s stores, e-commerce, and wholesale operations, will remain entirely under existing management. This structure reflects Authentic’s typical playbook: leveraging its brand management expertise and global licensing network, while entrusting day-to-day operations to experienced retail leaders.
For Guess?, going private provides greater strategic flexibility. Freed from the pressures of quarterly earnings, the company will be positioned to pursue long-term brand building, international expansion, and potential new product categories. The involvement of Authentic Brands, which manages more than 50 global names across fashion, sports, and lifestyle, signals a push to extend Guess?’s reach through licensing deals, partnerships, and new distribution channels.
The premium offered to shareholders is intended to deliver immediate value while also recognizing the enduring equity of Guess?’s brand. After more than four decades in business, Guess? has built one of the most recognizable names in denim and lifestyle apparel. Despite industry headwinds, the company has improved its financial discipline in recent years, strengthened its e-commerce channels, and invested in expanding its global footprint.
For Authentic Brands, the deal further consolidates its position as a dominant force in fashion and brand licensing. Adding Guess? to its portfolio not only diversifies its holdings but also provides another globally recognized fashion label that can be scaled across markets and categories.
The buyout reflects broader trends in retail, where public markets have often undervalued legacy fashion brands relative to their long-term licensing potential. By combining private ownership with Authentic’s infrastructure, Guess? is expected to transition from being primarily a retail operator to becoming a broader lifestyle platform with stronger global licensing opportunities.
The transaction is expected to close in Guess?’s fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approvals and a shareholder vote. Once complete, Guess? shares will be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange, marking the company’s shift into a new era of private ownership and long-term brand development.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will take the stage at this week’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium under some of the most difficult circumstances of his tenure, with markets, policymakers, and global counterparts all watching for signals about the path ahead.
The annual gathering in Wyoming comes at a pivotal time. Inflation has remained stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target for four years, with recent indicators pointing to renewed upward momentum. At the same time, signs of a weakening labor market have begun to surface, raising questions about the balance between price stability and employment—two pillars of the central bank’s mandate.
Powell’s address is expected to be his last as Fed chair, adding even more weight to his words. Yet the environment he faces is unusually complex. Not only is the economy sending mixed signals, but political scrutiny of the central bank is intensifying, and divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee have become increasingly visible. The recent dissent among Fed governors—the first in decades—underscores that fracture. Meanwhile, the nomination of a new governor known for his sharp critiques of recent policy decisions further complicates Powell’s ability to unify the institution.
Investors remain split on what they hope to hear. Some want clarity on whether the Fed will move to cut interest rates as soon as September, while others are looking for insights into the deeper structural changes reshaping the labor market. The official theme of this year’s symposium is employment, but the debate over monetary policy and the Fed’s long-term framework is expected to dominate conversations.
Data dependence has long been the hallmark of Powell’s approach, but that strategy is increasingly being tested. Inflation readings have painted a conflicting picture: headline CPI slowed last month, but producer prices accelerated, and consumer surveys revealed rising inflation expectations. On the labor front, headline unemployment remains steady at just above 4%, yet underlying weakness is evident in reduced hiring, sector-specific job growth, and challenges facing new graduates.
Layered onto this economic backdrop are broader forces complicating the outlook. Tighter immigration policies under the Trump administration are reshaping the available workforce, while artificial intelligence raises new uncertainties about whether technology will ultimately augment or displace labor. Both trends make it harder to interpret traditional indicators.
Powell must also navigate the unveiling of a revised Monetary Policy Framework, which will guide how the Fed pursues its dual mandate in the years ahead. The last framework, designed to combat inflation undershooting, proved inadequate for the structural shocks that emerged after 2020. Whether the new iteration will address current challenges—or simply repackage old assumptions—remains an open question.
Markets are bracing for potential volatility. If Powell leans too heavily on flexibility and avoids specifics, investors may interpret it as indecision, further eroding confidence in the Fed’s direction. Conversely, signaling aggressive easing could push bond markets to react sharply, steepening the yield curve in ways reminiscent of last year’s turbulence.
The stakes at Jackson Hole could hardly be higher. Powell will not only be judged on how he balances immediate economic risks but also on how he frames the Fed’s strategic direction for a world that looks markedly different than when he first assumed the chair. With his legacy and the institution’s credibility on the line, his final address may shape how policymakers, markets, and history remember his leadership.
Soho House & Co Inc., the global private members’ club operator, has agreed to a definitive take-private transaction valued at approximately $2.7 billion. The deal will see investors led by MCR acquire outstanding shares not already held by key stakeholders, while longtime backers Ron Burkle and Yucaipa will maintain majority control by rolling their existing equity.
Under the terms of the agreement, shareholders will receive $9.00 per share in cash—an 83% premium to Soho House’s unaffected stock price in December 2024. Once completed, the company’s shares will be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange, marking a return to private ownership just four years after its 2021 IPO.
MCR, one of the largest hotel owner-operators in the U.S., is set to become a significant shareholder, bringing with it a portfolio of high-profile properties including the TWA Hotel at JFK, The High Line Hotel, and the Gramercy Park Hotel. MCR’s Chairman and CEO, Tyler Morse, will join Soho House’s board as Vice Chairman, signaling the group’s intent to expand its hospitality expertise across the brand.
Financial backing comes from Apollo Funds, which structured a hybrid capital solution combining debt and equity to refinance Soho House’s existing senior notes while injecting new liquidity. Goldman Sachs Alternatives, an investor since 2021, will continue its support with additional capital commitments.
The transaction will also introduce fresh strategic partners, including actor and tech investor Ashton Kutcher, who will join the board following completion. Other significant shareholders—such as Richard Caring, Soho House founder Nick Jones, and Goldman Sachs Alternatives—are retaining the majority of their equity positions, further reinforcing long-term confidence in the business.
Soho House has expanded its network of private members’ clubs to 46 locations worldwide, with recent openings in São Paulo, Mexico City, Nashville, and Paris. From 2022 through 2024, the company achieved consistent double-digit revenue growth alongside a more than 50% average annual increase in adjusted EBITDA, despite a challenging global economy.
The shift back to private ownership is expected to give the company greater flexibility to pursue its long-term strategy. Executives believe the move will allow Soho House to focus on enhancing the member experience, scaling operational systems, and expanding its global footprint without the quarterly scrutiny of public markets.
With four new Houses slated to open in the near future, the company’s leadership and new investor group see significant opportunity to deepen Soho House’s cultural influence while driving sustainable profitability. The combination of MCR’s hospitality expertise, Apollo’s capital resources, and Goldman Sachs Alternatives’ continued backing is expected to position the brand for accelerated international growth.
The deal is expected to close by the end of 2025, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals. Once finalized, Soho House will continue its mission of connecting a diverse global community of creatives, entrepreneurs, and cultural leaders within its expanding network of clubs and lifestyle businesses.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Q2 Results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $1.3 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $0.3 million, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 results. Importantly, while revenue was 22.3% lower than our estimate of $1.7 million, the adj. EBITDA loss of $0.3 million was largely in line with our expectations of a loss of $0.35 million. Furthermore, the on target adj. EBITDA figure was driven by the company’s strategic cost reduction and business transformation efforts, as well as the Lori Goldstein divestiture.
Favorable outlook. While the company is approaching the back half of the year with caution, largely driven by potential tariff impacts, we believe it stands to benefit from a number of favorable developments. Notably, the company is launching its Longaberger brand in Q3 on QVC and announced an accelerated timeline for its new influencer brands. Additionally, the company stands to benefit from its Halston brand as royalties kick in.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Task Order. DLH has been awarded a task order valued at up to $46.9 million to continue providing information technology services, including enterprise IT systems management, cyber security, software development, cloud computing, and more, to the National Institutes of Health’s Office of Information Technology (“OIT”).
Details. The task order includes a base period and multiple options aggregating to a three-year period of performance. Through this award, DLH will leverage a comprehensive suite of digital transformation and cyber security solutions to support approximately 7,000 end-customers. As part of this new effort, DLH will design and implement a cloud migration strategy built on partnerships with leading commercial CSP vendors, including Azure, AWS, and Google.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Bitcoin’s remarkable ascent to record highs came to an abrupt halt Thursday as inflation concerns and policy clarity sent the cryptocurrency tumbling more than 3% from its peak above $123,500.
The selloff began after July’s producer price data showed a shocking 0.9% monthly increase versus expectations of just 0.2%, immediately cooling market expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. The inflation surprise highlighted bitcoin’s sensitivity to monetary policy shifts and broader economic conditions.
Adding pressure were comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarifying the government’s approach to bitcoin reserves. While acknowledging the US holds $15-20 billion worth of bitcoin, Bessent stated the government won’t actively purchase cryptocurrency for strategic reserves, instead relying on asset seizures and confiscations for any growth.
This dual blow highlighted bitcoin’s vulnerability to both policy uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds, demonstrating how quickly bullish narratives can shift.
The broader cryptocurrency market suffered alongside bitcoin, with Ethereum falling 3.6% and MicroStrategy dropping over 4%. The selloff underscored how crypto assets remain closely tied to traditional financial market dynamics despite their decentralized nature.
Bitcoin’s recent surge had been fueled by corporate treasury adoption, following MicroStrategy’s strategy of adding bitcoin to balance sheets. Spot bitcoin ETF inflows and the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance, including executive orders exploring cryptocurrency in 401(k) plans, had provided additional momentum.
However, Thursday’s action reminded investors that bitcoin’s correlation with traditional risk assets strengthens during uncertainty periods. As investors reassessed Fed policy prospects amid persistent inflation, they simultaneously reduced appetite for speculative investments.
The inflation data’s impact highlights bitcoin’s evolution from purely speculative asset to one increasingly influenced by mainstream financial conditions. Higher producer prices suggest inflationary pressures may persist, potentially keeping monetary policy restrictive longer than anticipated.
For bitcoin investors, the environment presents competing forces. While long-term structural support remains through corporate adoption and regulatory clarity, near-term price action appears tied to economic conditions and policy developments. Bitcoin’s ability to maintain recent gains may depend on inflation trends and Fed policy decisions.
Despite Thursday’s pullback, fundamental drivers supporting bitcoin’s longer-term outlook remain intact. Corporate demand continues, regulatory frameworks are clarifying, and institutional infrastructure keeps expanding. However, the day’s events showed that even bullish crypto narratives remain subject to monetary policy and economic realities.
Trading around $118,400 after the decline, bitcoin’s next move likely depends on whether inflation pressures build or moderate, directly influencing both monetary policy expectations and risk asset appetite. The intersection of traditional monetary policy and cryptocurrency markets has never been clearer, suggesting bitcoin’s path forward will remain closely tied to broader economic conditions.
In a landmark deal set to reshape the global apparel industry, Gildan Activewear Inc. and HanesBrands Inc. have agreed to merge, forming one of the largest basic apparel companies in the world. The agreement, announced August 13, 2025, combines two industry leaders with complementary strengths, aiming to expand market reach, enhance manufacturing efficiency, and unlock significant cost savings.
The transaction values HanesBrands at approximately $2.2 billion in equity and $4.4 billion in enterprise value. Upon completion, HanesBrands shareholders will own about 19.9% of the combined company. The deal is expected to close in late 2025 or early 2026, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.
The merger will give Gildan access to HanesBrands’ iconic innerwear labels such as Hanes, Playtex, and Maidenform, while strengthening its retail penetration for its own activewear brands. The companies plan to leverage their combined strengths to expand sales across multiple channels and geographies.
Gildan’s vertically integrated, low-cost manufacturing network is a core advantage in the deal. By combining operations, the new entity expects to realize at least $200 million in annual cost synergies within three years—$50 million in 2026, $100 million in 2027, and another $50 million in 2028. These savings will come from streamlining supply chains, consolidating production, and reducing overlapping expenses.
From day one, the transaction is expected to boost Gildan’s adjusted diluted earnings per share, with projected growth of over 20% once full synergies are achieved. The combined entity’s adjusted EBITDA would have been approximately $1.6 billion for the 12 months ending June 29, 2025.
With greater scale, a broader product range, and enhanced brand strength, the merged company is positioned to better withstand seasonal and economic fluctuations. By blending HanesBrands’ strong retail presence with Gildan’s manufacturing efficiency, the partnership aims to offer greater value to both customers and shareholders.
The combined company will remain headquartered in Montréal, Québec, while maintaining a strong presence in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, preserving HanesBrands’ historical roots. Additionally, Gildan plans to review strategic alternatives for HanesBrands Australia, which could include a sale or other restructuring.
Looking ahead, Gildan projects net sales growth of 3–5% annually from 2026 to 2028, with capital expenditures of 3–4% of sales to support growth and integration. The company intends to resume share buybacks once its leverage ratio returns to target levels.
If successful, the merger will create a dominant player in the basic apparel space, offering a more diversified product portfolio, expanded global reach, and a more resilient supply chain. For both brands, this union marks a significant step toward shaping the future of affordable, high-quality apparel worldwide.
