Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, February 6, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – InPlay Broadens Capital Access with Israeli Bond Issuance
SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Solid Fiscal Q2 Execution but Carrier Pullback Creates Near-Term Pressure
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Thoughts on Current Environment
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$10.97 | Price Target: $15.75)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
InPlay Broadens Capital Access with Israeli Bond Issuance
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Bond offering details. InPlay announced a senior unsecured bond issuance in Israel for up to 550 million New Israeli Shekels (NIS), or approximately C$241 million. Three amortization payments of 6% of the principal amount of the bonds will be due on December 15 of 2027, 2028, and 2029, and the fourth and last amortization payment of the remaining 82% will be due on December 15, 2030. The offering is expected to close on or around February 12, 2026, subject to certain conditions.
Expanding capital market access. Beyond the financing itself, we view the transaction as a strategic expansion of InPlay’s funding base outside of Canada. InPlay received interest from over 40 institutional investors in the oversubscribed offering and, to date, has accepted tenders for NIS 550 million of the bonds. The transaction further strengthens InPlay’s diversified financing sources while reducing its overall cost of capital.
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SelectQuote (SLQT/$1.03 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Solid Fiscal Q2 Execution but Carrier Pullback Creates Near-Term Pressure
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fiscal Q2 results. SelectQuote reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $537.1 million, above our $520.0 million estimate, driven by stronger-than-expected Senior performance. Adj. EBITDA of $84.7 million exceeded our $82.0 million forecast, reflecting near-record 39% adj. EBITDA margins in Senior that more than offset pharmacy reimbursement pressure.
Medicare Advantage headwinds. Management cited pressure from a large national carrier’s decision to reduce strategic marketing spend across all channels. We believe this reflects a deliberate effort to moderate enrollment growth and protect plan profitability following above-trend member additions, rather than any deterioration in underlying demand.
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The GEO Group (GEO/$15.48 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Thoughts on Current Environment
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Environment. The current operating environment remains charged, as evidenced by the daily news. Nonetheless, we would point out that a key platform of the Trump Administration remains illegal immigration, and we do not expect that to change. Funding remains available under The One Big Beautiful Bill. And, historically, enforcement operations remain ongoing even in the face of a government shutdown.
Less New Awards Than Anticipated. The pace of new awards has been less than we had expected over the past few months. Whether this is just a temporary pause due to the significant number of new awards in 2025, the most recent new contract for GEO was the December skip tracing services contract worth up to $121 million of revenue over a two year period.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, February 5, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – Event Business Turns A Corner
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$7.33 | Price Target: $14.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Event Business Turns A Corner
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q2 Results. The company reported revenue of $306.9 million, largely in line with our estimate of $310.0 million, while adj. EBITDA of $77.5 million, missed our estimate of $97.3 million by roughly 20%. Notably, the quarter was driven by increased investment, largely related to marketing, which supported top-line results while pressuring adj. EBITDA in the quarter.
Clear inflection point. The company reported same-store sales growth of 0.3%, while this figure may seem modest, we view it as a favorable development. Notably, the events business, which has been the primary drag on same-store sales in recent periods, improved significantly during the quarter and was roughly flat y-o-y. Furthermore, in January, the event business experienced double-digit growth before being impacted by a major snowstorm.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – Q4 and FY2025 Financial Results Exceed Expectations
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Operational Update Following Webinar
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – $150 Million Bond Pricing
The Beachbody Company (BODI)/OUTPERFORM – Executing Strategic Growth Initiatives
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Some Recent News
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$25 | Price Target: $33)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Q4 and FY2025 Financial Results Exceed Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results. Alliance reported adjusted fourth quarter revenue, adj. EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $535.5 million, $191.1 million, and $0.64, respectively, compared to $590.1 million, $124.0 million, and $0.12 during the prior year period. We had forecast revenue, adj. EBITDA and EPU of $560.1 million, $182.9 million, and $0.57, respectively. While the quarter was impacted by lower coal sales, which impacted revenue, operating expenses were lower, and net income on equity method investments exceeded our estimate. Full year 2025 adj. EBITDA and EPU of $698.7 million and $2.40, respectively, were above our estimates of $690.5 million and $2.33, respectively.
Management guidance for 2026. Total coal sales are expected to be in the range of 33.75 million to 35.25 million tons, while the sales price of coal per ton is expected to be in the range of $54.00 to $56.00. Segmented adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold is expected to be $37.00 to $39.00. ARLP has committed and priced 32.2 million tons of its 2026 sales volume, including 30.5 million tons for the domestic market and 1.7 million tons for the export market.
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Comstock (LODE/$2.94)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Operational Update Following Webinar
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Industry-scale facility fully permitted. Comstock has received all required regulatory approvals for its first industry-scale solar recycling facility in Silver Springs, Nevada, including the Written Determination Permit and the Air Quality Permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection. The permits cover the full scope required to commission a facility designed to process more than 3.0 million panels per year, representing up to 100 thousand tons of end-of-life solar materials. Installation, testing, and commissioning are expected to occur during the first quarter of 2026.
Unit economics. Comstock’s recycling process is certified as a zero-landfill solution and designed to handle all major solar panel types, eliminating contaminants and recovering aluminum, glass, and metal-rich tailings. Comstock estimates that facility-level economics reflect a combination of upfront processing fees and proceeds from recovered materials, resulting in revenue of ~$750 per ton against all-in operating costs of roughly $150 per ton. Based on current operating data, profitability is achievable at relatively low utilization levels.
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Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$9.31 | Price Target: $23)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
$150 Million Bond Pricing
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Pricing announced for upcoming bond issuance. Sky Harbour priced $150 million of Series 2026 private activity tax-exempt bonds at par to yield 6.0%, with a mandatory tender on January 1, 2031, and an expected closing on or about February 12, 2026. The transaction is another example of the company’s tax-advantaged financing toolkit and deepens its access to institutional municipal investors.
Deal upsized on strong investor demand. The transaction was initially marketed at $100 million but was upsized to $150 million after receiving approximately $450 million of orders from 18 institutional investors. In our view, the oversubscription supports growing investor comfort in the asset base, the cash flow ramp, and the repeatable development playbook.
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The Beachbody Company (BODI/$11.65 | Price Target: $15)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Executing Strategic Growth Initiatives
Rating: OUTPERFORM
P90X Generation Next. On February 3, the company launched P90X Generation Next, the first new P90X fitness program in over a decade. Notably, the P90X franchise launched in 2005 and became one of the best-selling home fitness programs of all time, with more than 20 million people worldwide participating. Furthermore, the new exercise program is available on the company’s digital streaming platform BODi, and supported by brand partners and a new line of exercise supplements.
Digital streaming platform. Importantly, P90X Generation Next is available on the company’s digital platform, BODi, with a subscription. Moreover, subscribers can access the full P90X catalog of 145 workouts, including the original P90X, for $9.99/month. Additionally, the company offers a broader BODi membership priced at $19/month or an annual plan for $179/year that includes 8,000+ workouts, 140+ step-by-step programs, and nutrition plans.
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V2X (VVX/$66.4 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some Recent News
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Recent News. There has been a flurry of positive recent news on V2X, from confirmation of the T-6 award to new partnerships with Amazon and Google to an award under the Missile Defense Agency’s (MDA) Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) to support Golden Dome to advancement to Phase II of the U.S. Army’s Flight School Next (FSN) competition. Below, we highlight three of the developments.
T-6 Award. The U.S. Court of Federal Claims denied the protest and upheld the Air Force’s selection of V2X for the $4.3 billion T-6 Contractor Operated and Maintained Base Supply (COMBS) contract. With a period of performance through July 2034, the $4.3 billion award could generate an average of $475 million in annual revenue.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, February 2, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – Phase 1b Data Presented But Tegoprubart Remains Misunderstood
Kelly Services (KELYA)/OUTPERFORM – We Have Assumed Control
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – More Cost Out
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$2.2 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Phase 1b Data Presented But Tegoprubart Remains Misunderstood
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Phase 1b Data For Second Year After Transplantation Presented. Eledon presented data from its Phase 1b trial at the American Society of Transplant Surgeons (ASTS) meeting in January 2026. The presentation included data from 8 patients that had reached 24 months after transplantation, compared with 12 patients evaluated 12 months after transplantation presented in August 2025. These new data show a continued improvement in kidney function during the second year.
New Data Show Durability With Improvements. The 24-month data shows eGFR in tegoprubart patients continued to improve during months 12 to 24 after transplantation. The eGFR levels were restored to normal levels within 1 month after transplantation and were maintained for up to 2 years. Although this is a small number of patients, we see the result as consistent with prior data and our expectations for organ survival.
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Kelly Services (KELYA/$10.79 | Price Target: $17)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
We Have Assumed Control
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Sale Completed. On Friday, Hunt Equity Opportunities, a subsidiary of Hunt Companies, acquired the 3,039,240 Class B shares previously held by the Terence E. Adderley Revocable Trust K. Hunt now has effective control of Kelly, as owner of 92.2% of the voting Class B shares. According to James Christopher Hunt, CEO of Hunt, “Hunt is very excited about the value creation opportunities ahead for Kelly. We look forward to supporting Chris Layden, CEO of Kelly, and the rest of the Company’s management team as they focus on accelerating growth and realizing Kelly’s full potential.”
Board Changes. As part of the transition, four Hunt designees have been named to Kelly’s Board, with five former Kelly directors leaving the Board, which will now consist of 8 members. Mr. Hunt has been named Chairman of the Board.
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Resources Connection (RGP/$4.53 | Price Target: $10)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
More Cost Out
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Cost Out. Last week, RGP authorized a reduction of its global management and administrative workforce intended to reduce cost structure through enhanced efficiencies and streamlined operations. The Company expects the reduction in force to result in annual cost savings of $6-$8 million. Restructuring charges of approximately $3 million are expected to be recognized in the third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2026. The workforce reduction should be substantially completed by the end of fiscal 2026.
Additive. Last week’s announcement is on top of the October RIF, which also is expected to yield annual savings of $6 million to $8 million. Combined, the two actions could reduce expenses in the $12-$16 million range. These efforts are part of an even deeper assessment across the entire organization to streamline organizational structure, simplify processes, and adopt automation and AI to ensure RGP’s cost structure is adequately sized to the current revenue levels.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, January 30, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS)/MARKET PERFORM – Leaning Into Its Efficiency Initiatives
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Secular Tailwinds Expected to Sustain Sales and Cash Flow Growth
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – OLC Resubmission Accepted For FDA Review
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS/$4.63)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Leaning Into Its Efficiency Initiatives
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Difficult quarter. Fiscal Q2 revenue of $702.2 million declined by a disappointing 9.5%, but was in line with our conservative estimate of $702.0 million. Adj. EBITDA was $98.1 million, beating our estimate of $89.5 million by 9.6%. In our view, the results reflect the company’s initiative to focus on efficient use of marketing spend.
Cost actions are working, but benefits are not fully visible yet. Operating expenses declined meaningfully year over year, and the company has already achieved approximately $15 million in annualized run-rate cost savings. However, temporary consulting and incentive compensation costs related to the transformation are delaying the full earnings benefit. As these costs roll off, underlying profitability should improve.
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AZZ (AZZ/$124.97 | Price Target: $140)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Secular Tailwinds Expected to Sustain Sales and Cash Flow Growth
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updating estimates. While our FY2026 and FY2027 estimates are unchanged, we anticipate higher gross margins in the AZZ Metal Coatings and Precoat Metals segments beginning in FY2028. The company’s three-year plan established a goal of generating EBITDA margins of greater than 22.0% of revenue by 2028. Our revisions more closely align our forward estimates with this goal, and our estimates through FY2031 may be found in the financial model at the end of this report.
Secular growth drivers. We think AZZ is poised to benefit from multi-year secular drivers of growth. These include: 1) growth in infrastructure spending, 2) reshoring/nearshoring manufacturing, 3) migration to pre-painted steel and aluminum, 4) conversion from plastics to aluminum, 5) conversion to coil coating, and 6) growth in data centers.
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Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$6.67 | Price Target: $60)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
OLC Resubmission Accepted For FDA Review
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Unicycive Announced FDA Acceptance Of The NDA. Unicycive announced FDA acceptance of its resubmission of the New Drug Application (NDA) for OLC (oxylanthanum citrate). The resubmitted application has been classified as a Class II complete response, with a six-month review period. June 29, 2026 is the new PDUFA date, the statutory date for the application to be answered. This is consistent with our expected timeframe for OLC approval and launch.
We See NDA Acceptance As A Significant Milestone. In June 2025, an FDA manufacturing inspection found compliance deficiencies at the facility of a contract manufacturer. This stopped the NDA approval process just weeks before the PDUFA (Prescription Drug User Fee Act) date of June 28, 2025. The review of the preclinical, clinical, safety, and manufacturing data had been completed. We believe this will result in prompt approval.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, January 29, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – Upcoming FY 2025 Financial Results and 2026 Corporate Guidance
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Updated Model; Raising Price Target
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – 2026 Corporate Guidance Released, Revising Estimates
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$24.31 | Price Target: $33)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Upcoming FY 2025 Financial Results and 2026 Corporate Guidance
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results. Alliance will report its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results before the market opens on Monday, February 2, 2026. Management will host an investor conference call and webcast the same day at 10:00 am ET. Along with the 2025 operational and financial results, we expect ARLP to release its 2026 corporate guidance and outlook.
Noble Estimates. We forecast fourth quarter 2025 revenue, EBITDA, and EPU of $560.1 million, $182.9 million, and $0.57, respectively. Our full year 2025 revenue, EBITDA, and EPU estimates are $2.2 billion, $690.5 million, and $2.33, respectively. Our fourth quarter EPU estimate reflects an expected unrealized and non-cash loss on the marked-to-market value of ARLP’s bitcoin holdings, which has no impact on our EBITDA estimate. We forecast 2026 revenue, EBITDA, and EPU of $2.3 billion, $700.5 million, and $2.65, respectively.
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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$15.32 | Price Target: $17)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Updated Model; Raising Price Target
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updated Model. We tweaked our 4Q25 projections to include higher expected interest expense and the projected $3 million charge related to the payoff of the second lien term loan. As a result, our 4Q25 EPS estimate drops to $0.22 from a prior $0.26. The drop is not related to operational performance, and the debt swap will reduce overall interest expense going forward.
Cash Flow. With the completion of the new build program in early 2026, we expect Great Lakes to use the substantial free cash flow generation towards debt reduction. Over the past 5 years, capex has averaged $136 million annually. Roughly $25 million is for maintenance capex, and we do expect some additional capex as Great Lakes modernizes its fleet. Nonetheless, we estimate there should be at least $90 million on an annual basis for debt reduction.
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Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.53 | Price Target: $2.6)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
2026 Corporate Guidance Released, Revising Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Outlook for 2026. Hemisphere Energy released 2026 guidance outlining a C$12.0 million capital program, expected to support ~6.3% growth in average annual production to approximately 3,900 boe/d, compared to our estimated 2025 average of 3,670 boe/d. The capital program is expected to be fully funded from adjusted funds flow and is designed to provide disciplined year-over-year growth while protecting the balance sheet and maintaining shareholder returns. Production is expected to remain 99% heavy oil, supported primarily by polymer flood enhanced oil recovery at Atlee Buffalo.
Updating estimates. We are trimming our 2026 revenue estimate to C$89.9 million from C$93.7 million due to lower production and commodity price estimates. Our production and WTI crude oil price estimates are now 3,900 boe/d and US$60 compared to our previous estimates of 4,080 boe/d and US$65. Despite the lower revenue outlook, adjusted funds flow (AFF) increased modestly to C$40.0 million from C$39.7 million, reflecting lower assumed operating costs, improved differentials, and a reduced royalty burden. AFF per share remains unchanged at C$0.40.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cardiff Oncology (CRDF)/OUTPERFORM – Phase 2 Data Announced With Management Changes
Conduent (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – New CEO Appointment
FAT Brands (FAT)/NOT RATED – Files Voluntary Chapter 11; Terminating Research Coverage
Kuya Silver (KUYAF)/OUTPERFORM – Letter of Intent to Purchase the Camila Processing Plant; Expansion Planned
Twin Hospitality (TWNP)/NOT RATED – Files Voluntary Chapter 11; Terminating Research Coverage
Cardiff Oncology (CRDF/$2 | Price Target: $12)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Phase 2 Data Announced With Management Changes
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Cardiff Made Two Significant Announcements. New data from the Phase 2 CRDF-004 trial testing onvansertib as a first line treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer was announced as expected. Patients in the high-dose onvansertib group showed a large benefit in overall response rates (ORR) and progression free survival (PFS). Separately, the CEO and CFO have left the company. Board Member Dr. Mani Mohindru was named Interim CEO.
Phase 2 Trial Design. As discussed in our January 5 report,CDRF-004 is a Phase 2 dose-finding trial testing two doses of onvansertib in combination with two standard-of-care (SOC) regimens against the standard of care regimens alone. It enrolled 110 patients with RAS-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer, mCRC. Its primary endpoint is objective response rate (ORR). Secondary endpoints include progression-free survival (PFS), duration of response (DOR) and safety. These endpoints were selected to guide the design of Phase 3.
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Conduent (CNDT/$1.61 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
New CEO Appointment
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Leadership transition at a natural inflection point. Conduent announced that Harsha V. Agadi has been appointed Chief Executive Officer, succeeding Cliff Skelton, with Margarita Paláu-Hernández named independent Chair of the Board. The change follows a multi-year period of portfolio rationalization, asset divestitures, and balance sheet repair. In our view, the move marks a clear emphasis on operational execution.
A shift toward speed and accountability. We view Agadi’s appointment as a logical next step for the company. His background includes senior operating and leadership roles across large, complex organizations such as Little Caesars, Church’s Chicken, Friendly’s, and Crawford & Company. We expect an early focus on leadership depth, decision velocity, and operational accountability, with an emphasis on accelerating the company’s return to revenue and cash flow growth. In our view, this signals a move from stabilization to performance.
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FAT Brands (FAT/$0.26)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Files Voluntary Chapter 11; Terminating Research Coverage
Rating: NOT RATED
Chapter 11. Late Monday night, FAT Brands announced it has commenced voluntary chapter 11 proceedings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas. The Company plans to use the filings to deleverage the balance sheet, maximize value for its stakeholders, and support continued growth of its brands.
Precipitating Factor? It appears the tipping point for FAT to file the voluntary chapter 11 was Investor 352 Fund, the Company’s largest bondholder, earlier on Monday announcing it was suing FAT Brands for $109 million and promised Class B Common stock tied to ownership of Twin Peaks, as it was issued by Twin Hospitality.
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Kuya Silver (KUYAF/$0.82 | Price Target: $3.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Letter of Intent to Purchase the Camila Processing Plant; Expansion Planned
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Processing plant acquisition. Kuya Silver signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) to purchase 100% of SMRL Camila, the company that owns the Camila conventional flotation plant, for US$7.8 million, subject to closing conditions. The Camila plant is currently processing Kuya Silver’s mineralized material to produce silver and other metal concentrates on a toll-milling basis. The plant is located on a key transport corridor between the Bethania mine and Lima, Peru, where concentrate is shipped to port. Execution of a definitive agreement is subject to the completion of legal, financial, environmental, and technical due diligence.
Scalable processing capacity. The Camila plant currently operates at 150 metric tonnes per day with plans to increase production capacity to 300 to 350 tonnes per day, which Kuya Silver expects to undertake after closing the acquisition. The expansion is projected to require an additional capital investment in the range of US$0.7 million to US$1.0 million.
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Twin Hospitality (TWNP/$0.35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Files Voluntary Chapter 11; Terminating Research Coverage
Rating: NOT RATED
Chapter 11. Along with parent company FAT Brands, Twin Hospitality commenced voluntary chapter 11 proceedings in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas. Twin Hospitality plans to use the filings to deleverage the balance sheet, maximize value for its stakeholders, and support the continued growth of its brands.
Precipitating Factor? It appears the tipping point for Twin Hospitality to file the voluntary chapter 11 was Investor 352 Fund, FAT Brands’ largest bondholder, earlier on Monday announcing it was suing FAT Brands for $109 million and promised Class B Common stock tied to ownership of Twin Peaks, as it was issued by Twin Hospitality. FAT Brands and Twin Hospitality are seeking joint administration of the Chapter 11 cases under the caption “In re FAT Brands Inc., et al.”
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, January 27, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Graham (GHM)/MARKET PERFORM – Adds a Third Pillar
Graham (GHM/$76.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Adds a Third Pillar
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
An Acquisition. Graham has acquired FlackTek, a pioneer in advanced mixing and material processing solutions. The acquisition adds advanced materials processing as a third core platform for Graham, alongside Graham Manufacturing, specializing in vacuum & heat transfer, and Barber-Nichols, specializing in turbomachinery. FlackTek adds a proven and defensible product portfolio with a shared customer base and an installed footprint that extends across the full value chain, from upstream to downstream production and quality control.
Details. The purchase price is $35 million, which was paid 85% in cash and 15% using 75,818 GHM shares. There is a potential $25 million in future performance-based cash earnouts over 4 years based upon achieving progressively increasing adjusted EBITDA performance targets. The base purchase price is approximately 12x FlackTek’s projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA. FlackTek generates approximately $30 million in annualized revenue.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, January 26, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Expansion of Credit Facility
The GEO Group (GEO/$18.55 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Expansion of Credit Facility
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Credit Facility. The GEO Group amended its Credit Agreement, increasing GEO’s revolving credit facility to $550 million from a prior $450 million. The increase was effective as of January 20th. The increase provides the Company with additional financial flexibility, in our view, to further invest in growth opportunities and/or increase the share repurchase activity.
Share Repurchases. Recall, back in November, GEO announced an expansion of its share repurchase authorization to $500 million and extended the expiration date to December 31, 2029. As of November 6, 2025, the Company had approximately $458 million of repurchase authorization available under the share repurchase program. At the current price, the $100 million, if all used to repurchase shares, would further reduce the share count by approximately 5.38 million shares.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, January 23, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – Some Green Shoots? Updated Estimates
Kuya Silver (KUYAF)/OUTPERFORM – Mine Development and Balance Sheet Strength Support 2026 Ramp-Up
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$1.63 | Price Target: $4)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some Green Shoots? Updated Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updated Estimates. We tweaked our fourth quarter 2025 estimates after speaking with management. The changes do not impact our belief in the investment case for Commercial Vehicle Group. We maintained our revenue estimate at $146 million. Gross margin has been lowered to 10.3% from 11% previously. We are now estimating an adjusted net loss of $5 million, or $0.15 per share. Adjusted EBITDA is now $2.8 million. For the full year, we are at revenue of $640.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $18.3 million.
Green Shoots? Recent data from FTR and ACT could indicate an improved Class 8 truck environment in 2026, although we would need to see multiple months of positive developments before jumping in with both feet. According to FTR, December Class 8 truck orders of 42,200 units were the highest level since October 2022. Meanwhile, ACT raised its expectation for Class 8 production in 2026 to 246,000 units, up from a prior 205,000, and nearly flat with 2025.
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Kuya Silver (KUYAF/$0.73 | Price Target: $3.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Mine Development and Balance Sheet Strength Support 2026 Ramp-Up
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth Quarter Performance. The company mined 1,999 tonnes of mineralized material and processed 1,570 tonnes. Average processed grades were 6.0 oz/t silver (186.6 g/t), 1.40% lead, and 1.10% zinc, or 8.5 oz/t silver equivalent (264 g/t). Recoveries averaged 73.3% for silver, 79.1% for lead, and 57.1% for zinc. Metal processed included 7,724 ounces of silver, 18 tonnes of lead, and 15 tonnes of zinc. Sales included 5,441 ounces of silver, 15 tonnes of lead, and 8 tonnes of zinc, representing 6,194 silver-equivalent ounces, with silver contributing 88%.
Private Placement Financing. Kuya closed a brokered private placement raising gross proceeds of C$25.5 million. The company intends to pursue either the acquisition of an operating plant near the mine or the construction of a plant at the Bethania site to vertically integrate silver concentrate production. As mine production expands toward the Phase 1 target of 350 tonnes per day, Kuya expects more consistent processing, improved silver recoveries, and the recovery of minor gold and copper currently lost in the toll-milling process.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, January 21, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Adds a New Director
Power Metallic Mines Inc. (PNPNF)/OUTPERFORM – From Legacy Nickel to District-Scale Polymetallic System
NN (NNBR/$1.48 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Adds a New Director
Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Board Addition. NN added T ed White to its Board of Directors, effective immediately. Mr. White is co-founder of Legion Partners Asset Management, one of NN’s largest shareholders, owning approximately 9.55% of the outstanding common as of the date of the agreement, as well as economic exposure to another 5.99% of the Company’s shares. Mr. White will join the Board’s Strategic Committee, which was formed to evaluate a broad range of strategic, financing, and other alternatives to enhance shareholder value.
Cooperation Agreement. In connection with this appointment, the Company entered into a cooperation agreement with Legion Partners. The Legion cooperation agreement contains a customary standstill, voting commitment, and related provisions. Legion’s ownership is capped at 19.9% of the outstanding NNBR shares.
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Power Metallic Mines Inc. (PNPNF/$1.17 | Price Target: $2.65)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
From Legacy Nickel to District-Scale Polymetallic System
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating Coverage with an Outperform rating. Power Metallic Mines Inc. (OTCQB: PNPNF, TSXV: PNPN) is a Québec-based mineral exploration company advancing a high-grade polymetallic discovery that has evolved into a district-scale opportunity. Recent discoveries at the Nisk Project have shifted the investment thesis from a legacy nickel-sulphide asset to a high-grade copper-platinum group elements (PGE), nickel, gold, and silver system with emerging scale and continuity. Target metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, platinum, and palladium, are integral to electrification, industrial manufacturing, and critical mineral markets. Our price target is US$2.65 per share or C$3.65 per share.
Lion Zone Discovery. The investment case is anchored by the Lion Zone, a high-grade, copper-dominant orthomagmatic polymetallic discovery that represents the core value driver within the broader Nisk land package. Drilling at Lion has returned exceptional grades, including 11.6 meters grading 8.3% copper, 9.6 g/t palladium, and 2.6 g/t platinum, materially enhancing the project’s value profile beyond nickel alone. Follow-up drilling at the nearby Tiger Zone has confirmed the presence of similar mineralization along trend, supporting the interpretation that Lion-style mineralization is repeatable rather than isolated.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, January 20, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – AI Acquisition
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – A Strong Start to the Year
Information Services Group (III/$5.89 | Price Target: $6.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
AI Acquisition
Rating: OUTPERFORM
AI Maturity Index. Information Services Group has acquired the AI Maturity Index, a SaaS platform that allows organizations to assess the AI readiness of their workforces and improve their employees’ ability to leverage AI technology. The AI Maturity Index provides ISG with a high-impact, scalable entry point into every client’s AI journey. In its short time on the market, the AI Maturity Index has assessed more than 6,000 individual AI users and collected more than 400,000 data points—adoption that will expand exponentially as the platform gains broader use. Terms of the deal were not released.
Acceleration. The acquisition is part of a broader AI acceleration strategy by ISG that includes the formation of an AI Acceleration Unit that brings an integrated, expert-led approach to helping clients rapidly scale AI, and the upcoming launch of a proprietary insights platform with an AI-powered “intelligence advisor” to give organizations real-time access to highly sought-after ISG data and analysis.
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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$130.72 | Price Target: $145)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Strong Start to the Year
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Raising PT to $145. We are maintaining our Outperform rating and raising our price target on KTOS shares to $145 from a previous $95. KTOS shares are up 72% YTD, compared to 1.4% for the S&P 500, continuing the outperformance seen over the past three years. We believe the abundant opportunities across the business, potential positive increases in the defense budget, and solid execution present strong financial upside potential.
Defense Budget. Interest in the defense sector is partially being driven by the Trump Administration’s goal to increase the 2027 Defense budget by 50% to $1.5 trillion, up from approximately $1 trillion in 2026. Significantly, as relates to Kratos, a key focus of any increased spending will be on drones, autonomous systems, cybersecurity, and space, all key areas of Kratos.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, January 16, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT)/OUTPERFORM – Acquires Formidable Technology Company
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Some Model Refinements
Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – Preliminary Phase 2 Data From OCU410 Shows Improvements in dAMD Geographic Atrophy
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT/$7.6 | Price Target: $11)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Acquires Formidable Technology Company
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Dynamic acquisition. On December 31, 2025, the company acquired Endstate, a technology company focused on NFC-enabled authentication, digital product identity, and authenticated resale infrastructure for physical goods. Following the acquisition, the company formed a new wholly owned subsidiary, Endstate Authentic LLC. Details of the acquisition were not disclosed.
Vinyl is just the start. Notably, the Endstate technology is currently used by Alliance Authentic for the sale of limited-edition, numbered, blockchain-authenticated vinyl records and a commission-based secondary marketplace that is expected to generate high-margin recurring revenue. Importantly, while the company currently only offers vinyl on this platform, we believe there is a significant opportunity for product category growth, given the company’s large selection of physical media and collectables.
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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$19.91 | Price Target: $28)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some Model Refinements
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Model Refinements. Pre fourth quarter earnings, we went over our model and made some modest adjustments, as well as incorporated 2026 quarterly estimates. With the strong new contract awards in 2025, increased detention populations, and potential for additional awards in 2026, we believe CoreCivic is well positioned to post strong 2026 full year results.
Populations Continue to Rise. Overall, the ICE detainee population continues to increase, hitting just under 69,000 at year-end. This is up from approximately 39,000 at the end of 2024. We expect to see ICE detainee populations continue to increase over the course of 2026 as ICE brings on additional enforcement personnel. Increased populations bode well for CoreCivic.
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Ocugen (OCGN/$1.62 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Preliminary Phase 2 Data From OCU410 Shows Improvements in dAMD Geographic Atrophy
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Positive Preliminary Data From The OCU410 Trial. Ocugen announced first data from its Phase 2 ArMaDa trial testing OCU410 in Geographic Atrophy associated with dry Age-related Macular Degeneration (GA-dAMD). The announcement included the patients who have reached 12 months after treatment, with 23 out of the total 51 patients enrolled. The data shows an overall 46% reduction in lesion growth compared with controls. We see this as a highly meaningful difference.
OCU410 Is A Single-Treatment Gene Therapy. OCU410 is being developed as gene therapy for patients with GA secondary to dry AMD. A single OCU410 intravitreal injection delivers RORA (retinoid-related orphan receptor alpha), a nuclear receptor that regulates key pathways involved in retinal homeostasis with four mechanisms of action.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, January 15, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Preparing for Growth: Expanding Milling Capacity
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.72 | Price Target: $1.2)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Preparing for Growth: Expanding Milling Capacity
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Upsized Private Placement Financing. Due to strong support from shareholders and new institutional investors, Nicola Mining upsized its previously announced non-brokered private placement from C$1.0 million to C$3.0 million with the issuance of up to a total of ~3.3 million units at a price of C$0.90 per unit, including ~1.1 million issued during the first closing on the same terms. Each unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at a price of C$1.10 per share for a period of three years following the closing of the offering. The expiry of the warrants may be accelerated subject to certain conditions.
Use of Proceeds. Nicola’s Merritt Mill is the sole facility in British Columbia permitted to receive and process third-party gold and silver feed from across the province. Funds generated from the financing will be used for the purchase and installation of milling equipment to expand Merritt Mill processing capacity from ~200 tonnes per day to ~500 tonnes per day, the addition of a secondary ball mill, supplementary cleaner flotation cells, and associated pumping infrastructure. Spare bowl and mantle assemblies may be procured to support routine crusher maintenance and ensure operational reliability.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, January 13, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT)/OUTPERFORM – Another Exclusive Partnership
Kelly Services (KELYA)/OUTPERFORM – Trust To Sell Controlling Stake; Kelly Adopts Shareholders Rights Plan
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – Releases Preliminary 4Q and FY25 Sales Results
SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Extended Maturities Enhances Balance Sheet Flexibility
SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Joining NVIDIA Connect
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT/$7.74 | Price Target: $11)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Another Exclusive Partnership
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Amazon MGM Studios partnership. Notably, on January 12, the company announced an exclusive multi-year home entertainment licensing agreement with Amazon MGM Studios Distribution. Furthermore, the partnership positions the company as the sole physical media distributor for Amazon MGM titles across DVD, Blu-ray, UHD/4K, and premium collector options in the U.S. and Canada.
Extensive catalog. Notably, Amazon MGM Studios has a number of favorable releases this year, including Fallout Season 2 and Mercy. Additionally, the new releases build on an extensive content catalog, which includes globally recognized franchises such as James Bond and Rocky, as well as several other popular titles, including The Silence of the Lambs and Legally Blonde.
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Kelly Services (KELYA/$9.56 | Price Target: $17)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Trust To Sell Controlling Stake; Kelly Adopts Shareholders Rights Plan
Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Surprise Sale. Yesterday morning, Kelly Services announced that last Friday, the Terence E. Adderley Revocable Trust K notified Kelly’s Board that it entered into a definitive agreement to sell its entire holding, which constitutes 92.2% of the voting Class B common stock, to a private party. In an amended Schedule 13D filing after the market closed yesterday, the buyer was identified as Hunt Equity Opportunities.
A Large Premium. Hunt is purchasing the 3,039,940 B shares held by the Trust for $106 million, or the equivalent of $34.87/sh. The B shares closed on Friday at $8.86. Historically, the A and B shares have traded in tandem, although there have been periods in which one class has outpaced the other. There is a potential $15.2 million additional payout if the market capitalization of Kelly is equal to or greater than $1.2 billion at any time over the next 48 months. The deal is expected to close by the end of January.
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ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$2.46 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Releases Preliminary 4Q and FY25 Sales Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM
4Q25. Preliminary total GAAP revenues for 4Q25 are expected to be approximately $207 million, a 6.8% decrease from $222 million in 4Q24 and below the $223 million consensus estimate. This decline was primarily driven by RA Sushi and Kona Grill closures as part of the portfolio optimization and the change in the Company’s fiscal year. The Grill closures are expected to reduce total GAAP revenues by approximately 2.4%, representing 35% of the expected total GAAP revenue decline.
Calendar Impacts. The fiscal calendar change to 4 equal quarters in 2025 created timing differences that impacted quarterly comparisons: 4Q25 had 91 days versus 92 days in 4Q24. Additionally, the New Year’s Eve holiday shifted from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2026. The exclusion of New Year’s Eve in the current year impacted total GAAP revenues by approximately 2.5%, representing 37% of the expected total GAAP revenue decline. Fourth quarter comparable sales are expected to decrease by approximately 1.8%.
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SelectQuote (SLQT/$1.72 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Extended Maturities Enhances Balance Sheet Flexibility
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Extended maturity. The company completed a comprehensive refinance that extends its primary debt maturities to January 2031, removing the prior 2027 overhang. The new $325M senior secured term loan and $90M revolver replace the legacy structure and provide a multi-year runway. We view this as a structural reset that repositions the balance sheet to be better-aligned with the company’s long-term growth strategy.
Cost of capital improvements. The new facility delivers immediate interest savings on the revolver (SOFR + 400 bps versus SOFR + 500 bps previously) and embeds a clear path to lower term-loan pricing. The term loan begins at SOFR + 650 bps, with step-downs to SOFR + 600 bps and ultimately SOFR + 550 bps as leverage and Cash EBITDA improve. Operating performance will now have the potential to directly translate into interest savings.
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SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$2.21 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Joining NVIDIA Connect
Rating: OUTPERFORM
NVIDIA partnership elevates SKYX’s technology profile. SKYX joined the NVIDIA Connect Program, gaining access to NVIDIA’s cloud and AI ecosystem to support development of its All-In-One Smart Platform. Management described the relationship as “game-changing,” reinforcing SKYX’s positioning as a technology platform company.
The Smart Platform is designed to be the ceiling-based hub of the home. The SkyPlatform embeds connectivity, safety, and intelligence into a single ceiling-based hub, combining Wi-Fi, voice and app control, speakers, thermostat functions, emergency lighting, and safety features. The platform is designed to be compatible with leading smart assistants such as Apple’s Siri and Amazon’s Alexa, simplifying how homes adopt and manage connected technology.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, January 12, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – All Permits Received for Comstock Metals’ Industry-Scale Recycling Facility
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – A Raise
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – A Board Refresh
Comstock (LODE/$3.74)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
All Permits Received for Comstock Metals’ Industry-Scale Recycling Facility
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Receipt of Written Determination Permit. Comstock Metals received its Written Determination Permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection for the processing of waste solar panels and photovoltaics at its planned industry-scale materials recovery facility in Silver Springs, Nevada. Receipt of the permit will result in a fully permitted operation and facility, and is expected to enable Comstock to install, test, and commission the facility on schedule during the first quarter of 2026.
Receipt of Air Quality Permit. Earlier this month, Comstock Metals received approval for the associated Air Quality control permit. Both permits represent the complete scope of required regulatory approvals for commissioning the scale up of a facility designed for processing more than 3.0 million panels per year representing up to 100 thousand tons per year of waste materials. The facility integrates technologies for crushing, conditioning, extracting, and recycling metal concentrates from photovoltaics.
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MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.4328)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Raise
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Raise. MustGrow has announced a raise of up to $2 million in a non-brokered private placement of up to 4,000,000 units of the Company at a price of $0.50 per Unit. Each unit will consist of (i) one common share of the Company and (ii) one common share purchase warrant. Each whole warrant will be exercisable for a period of 60 months from the closing date and will entitle the holder to purchase one additional share at an exercise price of $0.70 per warrant share. The closing of the Offering is expected to take place on January 22, 2026, but may take place in one or more tranches, provided that the final tranche closing will occur no later than February 22, 2026.
Use of Proceeds. The Company intends to use the net proceeds raised from the LIFE Offering for inventory production for its mustard-derived organic biofertility product TerraSante, inventory for agricultural products to sell via its Canadian distribution platform NexusBioAg, and working capital and general corporate purposes. Recall, MustGrow ran out of TerraSante product in the second and third quarters last year as demand exceeded management’s initial forecasts.
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V2X (VVX/$62.78 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Board Refresh
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Refresh. V2X’s Board recently elected to increase the size of the Board from 7 members to 10 members and appointed Nicole B. Theophilus, Gerard A. Fasano, and Ross S. Niebergall, effective immediately, as new members of the Board to serve as Class I, Class II, and Class III Directors, respectively.
Theophilus. Ms. Theophilus currently serves as EVP and Chief Administrative Officer of Wabtec Corporation, a global provider of equipment, systems, digital solutions, and value-added services, since July 2024. She previously served as Wabtec’s EVP and Chief Human Resources Officer from August 2020 to March 2024. She was also the EVP and Chief Human Resources Officer for West Corporation from April 2016 to February 2018 and for ConAgra Foods from November 2009 to August 2015.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, January 9, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Third Quarter FY26 Review and Outlook
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – Year End Review: 2026 Could Be A Pivotal Year
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Pricing Discipline Holds as Volume Pressure Persists
AZZ (AZZ/$117.04 | Price Target: $130)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Third Quarter FY26 Review and Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM
FY 2026 third-quarter financial results. AZZ reported adjusted net income of $46.0 million, or $1.52 per share, compared to $41.9 million, or $1.39 per share, during the prior year period. We had forecast adjusted net income of $44.9 million, or $1.48 per share. Compared to the third quarter of FY 2025, total sales increased 5.5% to $425.7 million. We had projected sales of $424.6 million. Gross margin of $101.9 million was modestly below our estimate of $103.2 million. Operating income of $69.5 million exceeded our estimate of $64.9 million, due to lower selling, general, and administrative expenses. Adjusted EBITDA increased modestly to $91.2 million compared to $90.7 million during the prior year period and our estimate of $93.3 million.
Updating estimates. With one quarter remaining, we have lowered our FY 2026 EBITDA estimate to $368.0 million from $369.2 million, and increased our EPS estimate to $6.03 from $5.98. We have increased our 2027 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $388.0 million and $6.60, respectively, from $387.4 million and $6.45. Our longer-term estimates through FY 2031 reflect multi-year growth and are summarized at the end of this report. Our estimates do not reflect the impact of acquisitions until announced.
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Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.05)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Year End Review: 2026 Could Be A Pivotal Year
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Direct Digital remained a key strategic channel, supporting customer acquisition, margin mix improvement, and first-party data ownership despite a challenging macro and media cost environment. The channel continued to evolve toward a full-funnel model, with increasing contribution from returning customers, improved conversion rates, and greater emphasis on retention and lifecycle engagement.
Repositioning for strategic growth. Ongoing headwinds from media cost inflation, intensifying competition, and platform volatility have persisted in 2025, prompting a strategic shift toward owned-channel development, tighter audience targeting, and stronger cross-functional execution. Looking forward, Direct Digital is increasingly aligned around a more disciplined growth model, prioritizing customer retention, lifetime value, and earnings durability over volume-driven top-line expansion.
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Resources Connection (RGP/$4.5 | Price Target: $10)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Pricing Discipline Holds as Volume Pressure Persists
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Continued Revenue Pressure. RGP reported second quarter revenue of $117.7 million, down 19% year-over-year. On a same-day constant currency basis, revenue declined 18.4%, driven almost entirely by lower billable hours across the core On-Demand and Consulting segments. Importantly, the weakness remains volume-driven rather than price-driven, as average bill rates were largely stable and improved in several key geographies.
Pricing Discipline, Volume Weak. The Company continues to make progress with its value-based pricing initiatives. U.S. bill rates increased 2.5% year over year, Consulting bill rates rose 6.6%, and On-Demand bill rates increased 2.6%. However, these gains were more than offset by sharp declines in billable hours, particularly in Consulting (-33.8%) and On-Demand (-21.5%). Management specifically highlighted reduced demand for traditional finance roles as clients adopt automation and AI, underscoring that part of the On-Demand softness may be structural rather than purely cyclical.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, January 8, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – 2025 Review and 2026 Expectations
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Third Quarter FY 2026 Results Outpace Expectations
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – Monthly ETH Production
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Comstock Metals Achieves a Major Permitting Milestone
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$3.79 | Price Target: $9)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
2025 Review and 2026 Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM
2025 Review. ACCO Brands’ 2025 narrative was dominated by a clear priority: defend profitability and cash generation in a soft demand environment, using restructuring and cost takeout as the primary levers while the top line remained pressured. Across the first three quarters of 2025, demand was weak and uneven globally, and Q3 in particular underscored that as sales came in lower than expected; however, the Company still delivered adjusted earnings in line with its outlook by expanding gross margin and lowering SG&A, demonstrating meaningful operating discipline.
2026 Preview. Looking into 2026, we believe the key question for investors is whether ACCO can convert its 2025 operational progress into a durable and investable story rather than a purely defensive one. The most important variable remains organic revenue stabilization: the Company has demonstrated the ability to protect earnings despite sales declines, but the market will require evidence that declines are moderating, particularly in the Americas, and that channel inventories and promotional intensity are improving rather than worsening.
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AZZ (AZZ/$109.83 | Price Target: $125)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Third Quarter FY 2026 Results Outpace Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM
FY 2026 third-quarter financial results. AZZ reported adjusted net income of $46.0 million, or $1.52 per share, compared to $41.9 million, or $1.39 per share, during the prior year period. We had forecast adjusted net income of $44.9 million, or $1.48 per share. Compared to the third quarter of FY 2025, total sales increased 5.5% to $425.7 million. We had projected sales of $424.6 million. Gross margin of $101.9 million was modestly below our estimate of $103.2 million. Operating income of $69.5 million exceeded our estimate of $64.9 million, due to lower selling, general, and administrative expenses. Adjusted EBITDA increased modestly to $91.2 million compared to $90.7 million during the prior year period and our estimate of $93.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin as a percentage of sales amounted to 21.4% compared to 22.5% during the third quarter of FY 2025.
Segment results. While Metal Coatings sales were up 15.7% compared to the prior year quarter, Precoat Metals sales were down 1.8%. Metal Coatings delivered higher sales due to increased volume driven by infrastructure-related projects in several end markets. Precoat Metals experienced lower sales due to weaker end markets, including building construction, HVAC, and transportation, partially offset by container. Segment adjusted EBITDA margin amounted to 30.3% for Metal Coatings and 19.7% for Precoat Metals.
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Bit Digital (BTBT/$2.19 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Monthly ETH Production
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Data. Bit Digital reported its monthly Ethereum (“ETH”) treasury and staking metrics for the month of December 2025. As of December 31, 2025, the Company held approximately 155,227 ETH versus 154,398.7 ETH at the end of November. Included in the ETH holdings were approximately 15,146.0 ETH and ETH-equivalents held in an externally managed fund. The Company staked an additional 642 ETH during the month. The Company’s total staked ETH was approximately 138,263, or about 89% of its total holdings as of December 31st.
Yield and Value. Staking operations generated approximately 389.6 ETH in rewards during the period, representing an annualized yield of approximately 3.5%. Based on a closing ETH price of $2,967, as of December 31, 2025, the market value of the Company’s ETH holdings was approximately $460.5 million.
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Comstock (LODE/$3.97)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Comstock Metals Achieves a Major Permitting Milestone
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Receipt of Air Quality Permit. Comstock Metals received its Air Quality Permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection – Bureau of Air Pollution Control for the processing of waste solar panels and photovoltaics at its planned industry-scale materials recovery facility in Silver Springs, Nevada. Receipt of the permit is expected to enable Comstock to install, test, and commission the facility on schedule during the first quarter of 2026.
Closing in on the Written Determination Permit. The Air Quality Permit follows a notification of eligibility for a written determination permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection – Bureau of Sustainable Materials Management, which is now through the public notice period. Once the written determination permit is final, the two permits represent the complete scope of required regulatory approvals for commissioning the scale up of the recovery facility designed to process more than 3.0 million panels per year, representing up to 100 thousand tons per year of waste materials.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, January 7, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – Updating 2025 Estimates
First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF)/OUTPERFORM – Transitioning from Exploration to Feasibility
Kuya Silver (KUYAF)/OUTPERFORM – Vertically Integrating its Operation
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$23.73 | Price Target: $33)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Updating 2025 Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updating 2025 estimates. We have lowered our Q4 and FY 2025 EPU estimates to $0.57 and $2.33, respectively, from $0.69 and $2.45. We have marked-to-market ARLP’s holding of bitcoins, which amounted to 568 bitcoins as of September 30. The price of bitcoin closed at $87,508.83 on December 31, 2025, compared to $114,056 on September 30. We anticipate the value of digital assets in Q4 2025 could decrease by approximately $15.1 million if all bitcoins were held through the fourth quarter. Because it would represent a non-cash unrealized loss, it has no impact on our adjusted EBITDA estimate.
Looking ahead. While our 2026 and 2027 estimates are unchanged, we think coal supply and demand fundamentals could strengthen going into 2027, which could have a positive impact on pricing. Actions taken by the Trump Administration are expected to support and sustain coal-fired power generation. Electricity demand growth is expected to be driven by industrial growth, electrification, and the expansion of AI infrastructure and data centers.
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First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF/$0.76 | Price Target: $1.55)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Transitioning from Exploration to Feasibility
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Offtake agreement. First Phosphate recently amended an offtake agreement that includes a US$0.53 million upfront pre-payment during the fourth quarter of FY 2026. The funds will be used to advance the Begin-Lamarche project towards a feasibility study and later, production. The prepayment is subject to refund should First Phosphate decide not to pursue a feasibility study or production, neither of which we anticipate. In our view, the prepayment validates downstream interest and reinforces the strategic relevance of the Company’s integrated phosphate platform.
Final tranches of private placement. The Company closed the third and fourth tranches of its oversubscribed non-brokered private placement in December, raising approximately $9.6 million in gross proceeds and bringing total capital raised since June 2022 to approximately $49.7 million. Following recent warrant exercises and the offtake pre-payment, management indicates cash on hand of approximately $24 million, which we believe is sufficient to fund planned activities through 2026 and into 2027.
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Kuya Silver (KUYAF/$0.7 | Price Target: $1.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Vertically Integrating its Operation
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Private Placement Financing. Kuya Silver Corporation (OTCQB: KUYAF, CSE: KUYA) announced a brokered private placement pursuant to the listed issuer financing exemption of up to 15.0 million units of the company at a price of C$1.00 per unit for aggregate gross proceeds of up to C$15.0 million. Each unit will consist of one common share and one half of one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$1.30 per common share for a period of 36 months from the date of issuance.
Use of Proceeds. Kuya intends to use the net proceeds of the offering to advance the company’s Bethania project with the acquisition of and/or development of concentrate processing capacity. Kuya is evaluating several options, each of which is fully permitted and will allow the company to vertically integrate its production capabilities. Funds may also be used to explore the Silver Kings Project in Ontario, discretionary growth capital, and for general corporate purposes.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, January 6, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE)/OUTPERFORM – Hydronidone NDA Planned For 1H26, Meeting Expected Milestone
Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE/$7.92 | Price Target: $20)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Hydronidone NDA Planned For 1H26, Meeting Expected Milestone
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Positive Guidance Received From CDE. Gyre announced that its majority-owned subsidiary in China, Gyre Pharmaceuticals Ltd, has completed pre-NDA discussions with the Chinese Center for Drug Evaluation (CDE). The CDE indicated that the Phase 3 data meets the requirements for approval in chronic hepatitis B-associated liver fibrosis, as expected. An NDA submission is planned for 1H26, meeting our expected milestones for the product and the company.
Approval Would Allow Full Commercialization. Under the CDE regulations, the Phase 3 supports Conditional Approval for Hydronidone, allowing full commercialization. As part of the approval, company agrees to conduct a Phase 3c study after commercialization to confirm the effects seen in Phase 3. This is similar to a Phase 4 study in the US. The study design has not be finalized, although we expect similar endpoints for confirmation of the Phase 3 data.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, January 5, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cardiff Oncology (CRDF)/OUTPERFORM – Onvansertib Could Treat Colorectal Cancers That Escape Other Treatments
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)/OUTPERFORM – Emerging Growth Levers Provide Favorable 2026 View
Cardiff Oncology (CRDF/$2.66 | Price Target: $12)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Onvansertib Could Treat Colorectal Cancers That Escape Other Treatments
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating Coverage With A $12 Price Target. Cardiff Oncology is developing onvansertib for the treatment of multiple cancer indications. Its lead program is in metastatic colorectal cancer for patients with a mutation that makes the cancer more aggressive and difficult to treat. This mutation, KRAS, is found in about 45% of the colorectal cancer patients. As a result of the mutation, several standard therapies are ineffective. We believe onvansertib’s unique mechanisms of action could be a breakthrough in cancer treatment.
Onvansertib Has Two Main Mechanisms of Action. Onvansertib inhibits PLK1, an intracellular protein needed for regulatory functions that control cell growth and division. This protein can be overexpressed in many cancers, including colorectal cancer, overriding the normal controls. A second mechanism stops a pathway that allows tumors to survive in low oxygen environments and resist treatment with bevacizumab (Avastin).
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Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE/$4.19 | Price Target: $5.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Emerging Growth Levers Provide Favorable 2026 View
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Execution inflection driven by digital and DTC momentum. 2025 marked a clear improvement in operating execution, led by stronger e-commerce performance, enhanced digital capabilities, and early traction from the dropship initiative, which collectively supported revenue growth and improved operating leverage.
Pricing power and profitability improved despite cost headwinds. The company demonstrated brand resilience through higher average selling prices, stable unit volumes, improved full-price sell-through, and disciplined cost management, allowing it to offset tariff and freight pressures and deliver meaningful adjusted EBITDA upside.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, January 2, 2026
Companies contained in today’s report:
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – Development Update
Twin Hospitality (TWNP)/MARKET PERFORM – A Management Change
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – A Strong End to 2025 Awards
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$1.75 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Development Update
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Milestones. ONE Group announced a number of development milestones achieved during 4Q25. These include: entering into ten restaurant asset-light development agreements; an expanded footprint in large-market, professional sports & entertainment stadiums; opening two new STK locations; launching Benihana-branded retail product; and planning capital-efficient growth for 2026.
Largest Agreement. The ONE Group has entered into its largest asset-light development agreement in the Company’s history, securing development rights for a total of ten restaurants, either Benihana or Benihana Express locations, throughout the Greater San Francisco Bay Area. The two Benihana joint venture locations are expected to open in 2026, with the remaining franchised and licensed locations to open over the next seven years.
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Twin Hospitality (TWNP/$0.67)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Management Change
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Leadership Transition. Twin Hospitality announced Andy Wiederhorn has been named Chief Executive Officer of the Company and Roger Gondek has been named President of Twin Peaks, replacing former CEO and President Kim Boerema. While somewhat surprising, as Mr. Boerema was appointed CEO just this past May, the new leadership simplifies the leadership structure and optimizes resources while minimizing overhead, without any significant change in ability, in our view.
Roger Gondek. We believe the elevation of Mr. Gondek to President of Twin Peaks Restaurant to be the headline. Already serving as Chief Operating Officer of Twin Peaks since 2017, Mr. Gondek brings approximately 15 years of experience with the brand, including previous operations leadership roles with Twin Peaks’ largest franchisee. Mr. Gondek was the Executive Vice President of Operations of La Cima Restaurants, LLC, a franchiser of 43 Twin Peaks restaurants in Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Tennessee, from June 2011 to July 2017. Prior to La Cima Restaurants, Mr. Gondek was a Divisional Vice President at Hooters of America from October 2001 to February 2011. Mr. Gondek has a deep understanding of Twin Peaks markets, in our opinion.
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V2X (VVX/$54.55 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Strong End to 2025 Awards
Rating: OUTPERFORM
DMEA ATSP. V2X subsidiary Vertex Aerospace has been named as an awardee to the Defense Microelectronics Activity (DMEA) Advanced Technology Support Program (ATSP), according to the daily Department of War contract award activity. With multi-billion dollar potential, this award caps a strong year for V2X. The Company has won places on multiple billion dollar contracts, which bode well for the future.
Details. DMEA ATSP is an ID/IQ contract with a $23.357 billion ceiling. This multiple award contract has a base ordering period of five years with two option periods, three years and two years respectively, to establish a 10 year ordering period. There are a total of 10 awardees, including Vertex. As an ID/IQ, Vertex will need to compete for each award, but we are confident the Company will receive its fair share of wins under the contract.
