Key Points: – Microsoft surpasses $4 trillion in market cap after strong earnings and $75B Azure revenue. – Azure’s 34% growth highlights Microsoft’s central role in cloud and AI. – Tech rally continues as Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft drive markets to new highs.
Microsoft has officially joined Nvidia in the exclusive $4 trillion market cap club,marking a historic milestone for the software giant and underlining the tech sector’s relentless momentum in 2025. Shares surged over 5% following a robust earnings report, which included impressive revenue growth and a major new disclosure: Azure, Microsoft’s cloud platform, generated more than $75 billion in annual revenue—a 34% jump year-over-year.
This leap not only reflects the growing dominance of cloud computing, but also Microsoft’s deepening foothold in artificial intelligence. Azure has become the backbone for countless AI tools and large language models developed by Microsoft, OpenAI, and other industry titans. It’s the first time Microsoft has reported Azure’s revenue in dollar terms, a move that underscores confidence in its scale and transparency.
Microsoft now joins Nvidia, which crossed the $4 trillion threshold earlier this month, as the top two performers on the tech leaderboard. The rise of both companies has displaced Apple from its long-standing top spot. Apple currently holds a market cap around $3.2 trillion, weighed down by concerns that it’s lagging in AI innovation—a stark contrast to the explosive growth seen at Microsoft and Nvidia.
The earnings report revealed Microsoft’s fastest revenue growth in over three years, up 18%, fueled largely by AI-integrated services across its ecosystem—from Azure to Copilot. This momentum helped push the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to fresh record highs, with Microsoft and Meta among the day’s biggest gainers.
Investor confidence in Microsoft is also riding high as the broader AI boom reshapes the market. Microsoft’s strategic investments and partnerships in generative AI, including its alliance with OpenAI, continue to pay dividends. The company is widely seen as a foundational player in AI infrastructure, not just through its software, but via the massive cloud computing power needed to support this new wave of intelligence-driven applications.
Meanwhile, Nvidia remains the biggest hardware beneficiary of the AI surge. Its GPUs power the vast majority of AI models and cloud-based inference engines, including those used by Microsoft. The synergy between the two companies has made them central pillars of this new technological era, where compute power and software intelligence go hand-in-hand.
The broader tech rally was also fueled by Meta, which saw its shares jump over 11% on strong earnings and guidance. The “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap tech firms continue to dominate market headlines and investor portfolios, with Microsoft and Nvidia at the forefront of this reshaping.
Looking ahead, Microsoft’s strong positioning in AI, continued cloud growth, and investor optimism could drive further gains. With tech still attracting the bulk of growth capital, and AI becoming more embedded in daily life and business, Microsoft’s $4 trillion valuation may just be the beginning of a new market era.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 31, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Promising Target Zone Identified at the Awacha Copper Target Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – Abstract From A Single Patient Is Not A Safety Concern FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – Reports 2Q25 Results MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – An Offering and Other Changes to Capital Structure
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.11 | Price Target: $0.4) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Promising Target Zone Identified at the Awacha Copper Target Rating: OUTPERFORM
Mapping program at Awacha. In 2024, an Anaconda-style mapping program was completed over a 17-square kilometer area at the Awacha porphyry copper target in Ecuador. A total of more than 2,200 outcrops were studied and described by field geologists and subsequently compiled into a database. Interpretation of the data was finalized in early June, and the company engaged porphyry copper expert Dr. Steve Garwin to review the mapping data and identify the most promising porphyry targets in the Awacha area. Dr. Garwin has been associated with several major discoveries, including the Alpala porphyry copper-gold deposit at the Cascabel project in Ecuador.
Large zone of interest. Following the mapping program, a large zone of hydrothermal alteration that is greater than six kilometers by four kilometers was revealed during a review and interpretation of the data. The area of interest, coincident with magnetic and conductive anomalies that indicate the potential for porphyry mineralization, warrants additional field work to refine hole locations for a future drill program.
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$3.16 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Abstract From A Single Patient Is Not A Safety Concern Rating: OUTPERFORM
We Look Forward To Data At The World Transplant Congress. Eledon is scheduled to present interim data from its Phase 1b study at the World Transplant Congress (WTC), to be held August 2 to 6. We have also seen an abstract discussing a single patient in the Phase 2 BESTOW trial that had an unrelated fungal infection. While we do not consider the abstract to be significant, it may have raised safety concerns for investors.
WTC Abstract From One Patient May Have Been Misinterpreted. The abstract discusses “a unique case of pulmonary mucomycosis” in a patient enrolled in the Phase 2 BESTOW trial. Four weeks after receiving a kidney transplant and the tegoprubart regimen, he developed fever due to a rare fungal infection that was treated and resolved. “The patient remained on tegoprubart infusions and showed evidence of clinical improvement, without evidence of rejection or infection at follow-up visits”, stated the abstract.
FAT Brands (FAT/$2.38 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Reports 2Q25 Results Rating: OUTPERFORM
2Q25 Results. Revenue of $146.8 million declined 3.4% y-o-y, but was above our $141 million estimate. The revenue decline was driven by a decrease in restaurant revenue resulting from the closure of five underperforming Smokey Bones locations, the temporary closure of one Smokey Bones location for conversion into a Twin Peaks lodge, and lower same-store sales, partially offset by the opening of new Twin Peaks lodges. FAT Brands reported a net loss of $54.2 million, or a loss of $3.17/sh, compared to a net loss of $39.4 million, or a loss of $2.43/sh, last year. We had projected a net loss of $46 million or a loss of $2.56/sh.
Pipeline and Openings. The development pipeline remains robust with roughly 1,000 signed deals. Eighteen new locations opened during the quarter, with FAT Brands well positioned to see 100 locations open in 2025. The opening of new locations will help drive go-forward adjusted EBITDA for the Company.
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.54) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 An Offering and Other Changes to Capital Structure Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Capital Structure. MustGrow announced a series of changes to be made to its capital structure including (i) a non-brokered private placement of up to 4,285,715 units of the Company (ii) the proposed repricing of outstanding share purchase warrants issued pursuant to its January 16, 2025 private placement and (iii) its intention to offer shares for debt settlement to all holders of unsecured convertible debentures issued pursuant to its January 16, 2025 private placement.
“LIFE” Offering. The 4,285,715 units will be offered at a price of CAD$0.70 per unit for gross proceeds of up to $3.0 million. Each unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant exercisable for 60 months at an exercise price of $0.90 per warrant. Net proceeds will be used for inventory production of TerraSante, inventory for agricultural products to sell via its Canadian distribution platform, NexusBioAg, and working capital and general corporate purposes.
Second quarter financial results. Alliance reported second quarter adjusted EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $161.9 million and $0.46, respectively, compared to $181.4 million and $0.77 during the prior year period. We had projected EBITDA and EPU of $159.8 million and $0.57. Reported earnings per unit include a $25 million non-cash impairment charge. Total revenue amounted to $547.5 million compared to $593.4 million during the prior year period and our $577.4 million estimate. The variance compared to our revenue estimate was largely due to lower coal sales.
Outlook for the remainder of 2025 and 2026. Management increased the top end of 2025 coal tonnage sales guidance, kept overall coal sales price expectations intact, and lowered guidance for segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold. Notably, oil and gas royalty volume expectations were increased, while segment adjusted EBITDA expense as a percentage of oil and gas royalty revenues was decreased to 14% from 15%. While management expects the average coal sales price per ton to trend lower in 2026 due to higher-priced contracts rolling off, longwall moves in 2025 and actions to improve productivity and cost effectiveness are expected to offset the impact of lower prices.
FAT Brands (FAT/$2.4 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Charges Dropped Rating: OUTPERFORM
Charges Dropped. Last night, FAT Brands announced that the United States Attorney for the Central District of California has filed a motion to dismiss all charges against Andrew Wiederhorn, FAT Brands, Rebecca Hershinger, and William Amon. This is a major development in our view, not only removing significant ongoing related legal fees for FAT Brands, but also any lingering reputational risk investors may have had related to the action. It remains to be seen if last night’s action will result in a similar favorable resolution to the SEC civil action.
Background. The original charges from the U.S. District Attorney were filed back in May 2024, while, simultaneously, the SEC filed a civil complaint accusing Mr. Wiederhorn of using FAT cash to fund his lifestyle, while falsely telling the Company’s auditors, Board of Directors, and investors that neither he nor his family members had any direct or indirect material interest in the FAT cash used by Mr. Wiederhorn for personal expenditures.
Graham (GHM/$55.46 | Price Target: $52) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 $25.5 Million Follow-on Order Rating: OUTPERFORM
Follow-on Order. Yesterday, Graham Corporation announced the Company was awarded a follow-on order to produce critical hardware for the MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight torpedo program. This was a sole sourced award. Graham typically receives an annual order for this program once funding is approved for the current year’s supply.
MK48 Program. The follow-on order is valued at approximately $25.5 million. Graham manufactures and tests the alternators and regulators for the MK48 Mod 7 Heavyweight torpedo through its Barber-Nichols subsidiary. We believe there are two more option years remaining under the current program in which 50-120 MK 48s are produced annually.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 29, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Not the Best Way to Stimulate Mining Investment in Ecuador GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – 2Q25 Reported With MVA and Gedeptin Trial Updates
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.1 | Price Target: $0.4) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Not the Best Way to Stimulate Mining Investment in Ecuador Rating: OUTPERFORM
New mining service fee. Ecuador implemented a new mining service fee, Tasa de Fiscalizacion Minera (TASA), on the resource sector. Aurania received notice of the fee associated with its project in Ecuador. The Ecuadorian Control and Regulation Agency (ARCOM) has requested payment of US$2,012,618 by July 31, 2025, representing one month of the total annual fee of US$24,151,420, to help fund ARCOM’s efforts. Because we do not anticipate significant negative repercussions associated with deferring payment, we think Aurania will withhold payment until it becomes clear whether TASA will stand in its current form.
TASA is being challenged. The new fee represents a significant cost burden for junior exploration companies. Multiple constitutional challenges have been filed in Ecuador and are being analyzed by the Court to determine if the claims will be accepted, which could take several months.If accepted, the constitutional challenges could take several years, and ARCOM may or may not be directed to suspend the collection of fees until claims are resolved. Reasonable accommodations will likely need to be made.
GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$0.74 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 2Q25 Reported With MVA and Gedeptin Trial Updates Rating: OUTPERFORM
GeoVax Reports 2Q25 Financials With Updates Trials For MVA and Gedeptin. GeoVax reported a 2Q25 loss of $5.4 million or $(0.35) per share. Revenues of $0.9 million were for work performed under the BARDA contract prior to its cancellation in April 2025. During the quarter, the EMEA communicated that the GEO-MVA vaccine in development for smallpox/Mpox could skip Phase 1 and 2, then receive approval based on Phase 3 immune markers. The company also amended its trial plans for Gedeptin in HNSCC.
GEO-MVA Phase 3 Is Expected To Begin In 2H26. As discussed in our Research Note on June 17,GeoVax received Scientific Advice (SA) from the EMA for GEO-MVA smallpox/Mpox vaccine stating the Phase 1 and 2 studies would not been needed. An MAA will only require a single Phase 3 immuno-bridging trial comparing the immune response in healthy volunteers receiving GEO-MVA against the approved vaccine. The study is expected to begin in 2H26.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, July 28, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Strong 4Q; But Environment Still Recovering
Resources Connection (RGP/$5.79 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Strong 4Q; But Environment Sill Recovering Rating: OUTPERFORM
4Q25 Results. Results came in above guidance. Revenue was $139.3 million, versus a high end guide of $137 million and exceeded our $132 million estimate. Gross margin of 40.2% was also above the high end of guidance, was flat y-o-y, and above our 37% estimate. The bottom line was impacted by a $69 million goodwill impairment charge, resulting in a loss of $2.23/sh for the quarter. Adjusted EPS was $0.16 versus $0.28 in 4Q24 and was above our estimate and the consensus estimate of a loss of $0.01/sh. Adjusted EBITDA was $9.8 million, above our $2.4 million estimate.
Pipeline. While overall pipeline contracted during the quarter, pipeline creation efforts grew in all regions with a higher volume of larger value deals. RGP secured multiple new opportunities exceeding $1 million and expanded the number of $1 million-plus projects in the pipeline relative to the same quarter last year. The Company is also seeing growing momentum in larger opportunities, each exceeding $5 million.
Second quarter estimates. We are lowering our Q2 2025 revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates to $11.4 million and a loss of $1.23, respectively, from $14.1 million and a loss of $0.76. Additionally, we are reducing our operating expenses to $13.0 million from $14.4 million, as dry docking expenses have been pushed into the third quarter. Despite lower operating expenses, we are decreasing our adjusted EBITDA estimate to $1.6 million from $2.9 million. The decrease in our earnings estimates is mainly due to lower-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rates.
Full-Year 2025 estimates. We are lowering our 2025 revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates to $46.0 million and a loss of $4.41, respectively, from $50.3 million and a loss of $3.79. We are trimming our operating expenses to $51.4 million from $51.8 million, due to lower expected voyage expenses. Our adjusted EBITDA estimates were lowered to $5.6 million from $9.3 million. The lower estimates are driven by soft market rates.
Updating second quarter estimates. We are raising our second quarter revenue and adjusted earnings per share estimates to $56.7 million and $3.87, respectively, from $54.0 million and $3.45. Additionally, we are increasing our adjusted EBITDA estimate to $38.5 million from $35.0 million. The upward revisions are driven by stronger-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rates.
Full-year 2025 estimates. For the full-year 2025, we expect higher revenues and adjusted earnings per share estimates of $228.5 million and $15.47, respectively, up from $225.6 million and $15.05. We are raising our operating expense estimates to $83.0 million from $81.7 million, due to higher dry-docking expenses. Our full year adjusted EBITDA estimate has been increased to $153.1 million from $149.2 million. The increases in our estimates are largely due to higher TCE rates.
FreightCar America (RAIL/$11.54 | Price Target: $16) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Updating Our Forward Estimates and Increasing our PT Rating: OUTPERFORM
Increasing longer-term rail car delivery estimates. While we have maintained our rail car delivery estimates for 2025 through 2027, we have increased our delivery estimates for 2028 through 2030. We now forecast rail car deliveries of 5,500, 5,750, and 6,000, respectively, compared with our prior estimates of 5,000, 5,000, and 5,000. While we had previously assumed that RAIL would operate four production lines with an aggregate capacity of 5,000 rail cars through 2030, we now assume the company will operate five production lines with a total capacity of 6,250 rail cars beginning in 2028. Our prior assumption had been that the company could begin producing a new line of higher-margin tank cars using existing capacity at the expense of lower margin products. Because we think tank cars could add an incremental 500 or more orders beginning in 2028, the tank cars would be incremental to existing orders with five production lines.
Updating earnings estimates. We forecast 2025 EBITDA and EPS of $45.9 million and $0.47, respectively, while our 2026 estimates are $48.6 million and $0.53. While our 2025 and 2026 EBITDA estimates are unchanged, we have increased our forward estimates, which may be found in the financial model at the end of this report. While our earnings estimates have increased, gross margin as a percentage of sales remains unchanged at 13.0%, 13.3%, 13.5%, and 13.8% in 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2030, respectively, while selling, general, and administrative expense as a percentage of sales increased modestly.
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$7 | Price Target: $9) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Updating Estimates and Market Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Second Quarter 2025 Estimate Revisions. We are raising our Q2 2025 net revenue forecast to $36.5 million from $35.9 million, driven by stronger-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rates. However, we are lowering our adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $16.7 million and $0.11, respectively, from $17.3 million and $0.17, reflecting higher operating expenses of $29.1 million versus $27.5 million previously. The increase reflects a full quarter of the expanded fleet as well as higher-than-expected dry-docking activity.
Full-Year 2025 Estimate Changes. We are increasing our 2025 revenue forecast to $143.4 million from $142.9 million, as we expect improving rate momentum to continue through year-end. We are also raising our operating expense estimate to $113.9 million from $109.4 million, reflecting a greater number of anticipated dry-docking days. As a result, we are lowering our adjusted EBITDA projection to $67.7 million from $70.5 million and our EPS estimate to $0.51 from $0.74.
Travelzoo (TZOO/$12.55 | Price Target: $26) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Steps On The Customer Acquisition Accelerator Rating: OUTPERFORM
Mixed second quarter results. Revenues significantly increased 13.1% to $23.9 million, a sequential quarterly increase from 5.3% in Q1, reflecting its strategic shift toward a subscription based model. Adj. EBITDA fell short of our expectations, however, due to a step up in customer acquisition spend and the purchase of “distressed” vouchers.
Favorable customer acquisition dynamics. Customer acquisition costs went up in Q2 to $38 from $28 in Q1, but still remains positive. Total return is $58, $40 from the annual subscription fee and $18 from transactions. Management anticipates to continue to aggressively spend on customer acquisition in light of the favorable Return on Investment. These moves support a longer term attractive revenue outlook, but have a near term adverse impact on adj. EBITDA.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 23, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI)/OUTPERFORM – Improving Oncology Treatment While Cutting Costs
The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI/$3.54 | Price Target: $8) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Improving Oncology Treatment While Cutting Costs Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating Coverage of The Oncology Institute With An Outperform Rating. The Oncology Institute of Hope & Innovation (TOI) is a medical practice management company specializing in community-based oncology practices. It manages and operates oncology clinics in five states using its proprietary, value-based methodology. These treatment regimens have improved outcomes for patients while reducing the cost of care.
TOI Uses Capitated Contracts To Control Costs. TOI enters into contracts with third-party payers to treat a specified number of health plan members based on the estimated per-member, per-month cost. This method of providing coverage based on population size is known as capitation. It also offers traditional fee-for-service as well as value-based oncology care. This provides TOI with the flexibility to contract with more insurance plans.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 22, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Angel Island Lithium Carbonate Proves its Value Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Our Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation; Raising Price Target
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.25 | Price Target: $2.35) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Angel Island Lithium Carbonate Proves its Value Rating: OUTPERFORM
Lithium-metal anodes. Century Lithium announced that Alpha-En Corporation successfully converted Century’s lithium carbonate into battery-grade lithium-metal anodes for use in lithium-ion batteries. The lithium-metal anodes were produced using 99.8% pure lithium carbonate from Century’s Angel Island project and demonstration plant. The sample was converted by Alpha-En into lithium metal using Alpha-En’s patented conversion process.
LFP 18650 battery cells. Earlier in the month, Century announced that First Phosphate Corp. produced commercial-grade lithium iron phosphate (LFP) 18650 battery cells using North American critical minerals, including lithium carbonate sourced from Century’s Angel Island project and demonstration plant, along with high-purity phosphoric acid and iron powder from First Phosphate’s Begin-Lamarche property in Quebec. The LFP 18650 battery cells were assembled for First Phosphate by Ultion Technologies at their pilot facility in Nevada.
The Merritt Mill is processing ore. Nicola Mining’s (TSX.V: NIM, OTCQB: HUSIF) 100% owned Merritt Mill in British Columbia recently began milling and processing ore from Talisker Resources Ltd.’s (TSX: TSK, OTCQX: TSKFF) Mustang mine to produce gold and silver concentrate. On May 11, Talisker began trucking material to the Craigmont Mill. The commencement of milling operations marked Nicola’s transition to a long-term production plan and sustained revenue and cash flow generation.
Flow-through financing. Nicola Mining raised gross proceeds of C$2,175,000 with a non-brokered private placement of 4,350,000 units at a price of C$0.50 per unit. Each unit consists of one flow-through common share and one-half of one non-flow-through common share purchase warrant. Each warrant is exercisable at a price of C$0.65 and expires two years from the date of issuance. The financing was oversubscribed by a total of 350,000 units or C$175,000. Proceeds will be used to fund exploration at the company’s New Craigmont Copper Project.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, July 21, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Estimates and a First Look at 2026
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$7.4 | Price Target: $15) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Increasing Estimates and a First Look at 2026 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Company strategy. Despite the recent improvement in oil prices, InPlay is maintaining its 2025 production guidance at 16,000 to 16,800 boe/d. Management reiterated that the strategy remains centered on capital discipline, prioritizing debt reduction over production growth. The company’s approach is supported by fluctuating oil prices and the performance of assets acquired from Obsidian Energy, which have demonstrated low decline rates and continue to well-exceed type curve expectations. Recall that as part of the transaction, Obsidian Energy received InPlay shares as part of the consideration.
Non-binding offer. InPlay Oil announced that Obsidian Energy has entered into a non-binding agreement with a third party for the sale of its entire position in InPlay, totaling 9,139,784 common shares. The proposed transaction is expected to occur at a premium to InPlay’s share price as of July 15, 2025. While the parties remain in discussions, no binding agreement has been finalized at this time.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, July 18, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – More News; Updated Model
Bit Digital (BTBT/$4.01 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 More News; Updated Model Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updated Model. Earlier this week, Bit Digital announced preliminary revenue for 2Q25 in the $24.3-$26.9 million range, which is modestly below our and consensus estimates. The difference, in our view, is likely driven by the push to the right of some contracts. We are not too concerned as of now, as we expect the contracts to come online this year.
Adjusted Numbers. We lowered our 2Q revenue expectation to $25.3 million from a prior $31.6 million, with the biggest change coming in the Cloud Services and Mining line items. Net loss is now at $4.4 million, or $0.02/sh, versus a prior loss of $1.4 million, or $0.01/sh.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 16, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Extending a Track Record of Returning Capital to Shareholders SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Temporary Pressure, Strong Path Forward The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Amends Senior Revolving Credit Facility
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.41 | Price Target: $2.4) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Extending a Track Record of Returning Capital to Shareholders Rating: OUTPERFORM
Special dividend. Hemisphere Energy declared a special dividend of C$0.03 per common share that is payable on August 15 to shareholders of record as of July 31. It is in addition to the company’s quarterly base dividend of C$0.025 per common share and is Hemisphere’s second special dividend payment in 2025.
Normal course issuer bid. Hemisphere Energy recently announced that the TSX Venture Exchange had accepted its notice to renew its Normal Course Issuer Bid (NCIB) to purchase for cancellation up to 7,934,731 common shares. Purchases will be made on the open market at prevailing market prices through the TSXV. The NCIB commenced on July 14, 2025, and will terminate on July 13, 2026.
SelectQuote (SLQT/$2.23 | Price Target: $7) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Temporary Pressure, Strong Path Forward Rating: OUTPERFORM
Setting up fiscal 2026. We are adjusting our fiscal Q4 estimates to reflect updated expectations for the Medicare Advantage market, with a particular focus on recent regulatory changes affecting Special Needs Plans (SNPs). While these developments introduce near-term challenges, we believe SelectQuote is well-positioned heading into fiscal 2026. We expect the company to rebuild agent capacity ahead of the next Annual Enrollment Period (AEP), to support a trajectory of sustained revenue growth and adj. EBITDA margin expansion.
Special Needs changes. Our revised Q4 outlook is primarily driven by recent changes implemented by CMS that restructure Special Needs Plan switching rights. The policy shift narrows mid-year enrollment flexibility for a significant portion of dual-eligible consumers (those enrolled in non-integrated D-SNPs), leading to the prospect of a smaller pool of shopping beneficiaries during the middle of calendar 2025. In addition, we are accounting for SelectQuote’s reduced year-over-year agent count, which entered fiscal 2025 approximately 22% below the prior-year level due to capital constraints at the time. These factors combined create a more muted backdrop for near-term Medicare Advantage performance.
The GEO Group (GEO/$25.04 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Amends Senior Revolving Credit Facility Rating: OUTPERFORM
Amended Facility. The GEO Group announced amendments to its April 2024 Credit Agreement that provide enhanced flexibility, better terms, and an extended maturity. Along with the additional payments on the outstanding debt, GEO has taken another step closer to being able to return capital to shareholders, in our view.
Details. The Amendment increases GEO’s revolver commitments from $310 million to $450 million and extends the maturity to July 14, 2030. The Amendment further provides that interest will accrue on outstanding revolving credit loans at a rate determined with reference to the Company’s total leverage ratio, which, as of today, reduces the rate by 0.50% from the prior applicable rate. The Amendment also increases GEO’s capacity to make restricted payments over the next five years.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 15, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – A Compelling Transaction
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$10.29 | Price Target: $17.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | A Compelling Transaction Rating: OUTPERFORM
Purchases real estate. The company announced that it purchased the real estate of 58 existing bowling centers for $306 million from Carlyle Group, its main sale leaseback partner. The real estate is located in California, Illinois, Georgia, Arizona, and Colorado. With the purchase, the company now owns roughly 75 of its over 350 bowling centers.
Financing set. The company amended its existing credit facility to provide a bridge loan of $230 million towards the purchase. Cash was used for the remaining purchase amount. We believe that the company will reduce the bridge loan over the course of the next year through free cash flow generation.
First quarter financial results. For the first quarter of fiscal year (FY) 2026, AZZ reported adjusted net income of $53.8 million or $1.78 per share compared to $44.0 million or $1.46 per share during the prior year period and our estimate of $50.1 million or $1.66 per share. Compared to the first quarter of FY 2025, sales increased 2.1% to $422.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 13.1% to $106.4 million, representing 25.2% of sales compared to 22.8% of sales during the prior year period.
Updating estimates. We have increased our FY 2026 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $388.3 million and $6.00, respectively, from $381.7 million and $5.83. In FY 2026, our estimates reflect average gross margins of 30.0% and 20.3% for the Metal Coatings and Precoat Metals segments, respectively. Moreover, we have published our estimates for 2027 through 2031 in the back of this report. Our forward estimates reflect an average 30.5% gross margin as a percentage of sales for the Metal Coatings segment, compared to the prior average of 28.0%. The average gross margin as a percentage of sales for the Precoat Metals business is unchanged at 20.3%.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$51.71 | Price Target: $60) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Fast Tracked Drone Opportunity; Raising PT Rating: OUTPERFORM
Directive. Building on President Trump’s June 6th Executive Order to Unleash American Drone Dominance, this past week Defense Secretary Hegseth signed a memo removing restrictive policies on drone innovation. By leveraging savings from DOGE, the DOD will help power a technological leapfrog and bolster the U.S. drone industry by approving hundreds of made-in-America drone products for purchase by the military. These goals play right into Kratos’ wheelhouse, in our view.
New Focus. The directive focuses on three key areas: strengthening the U.S. drone manufacturing base, arming combat units with a variety of low-cost drones, and ensuring those combat units are well-trained on how to use them. Kratos has been expanding its drone production capabilities, which the recent capital raise will turbocharge. Its drone technology is proven and available today, and the Company is the leader in providing target drones to the military.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 10, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2026 Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – Meeting Highlights Tegoprubart Data Milestones and New Indications
AZZ (AZZ/$100.73 | Price Target: $112) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Strong Start to Fiscal Year 2026 Rating: OUTPERFORM
FY 2026 first quarter financial results. AZZ reported adjusted net income of $53.8 million or $1.78 per share compared to $44.0 million or $1.46 per share during the prior year period. We had forecast adjusted net income of $50.1 million or $1.66 per share. Compared to the first quarter of FY 2025, sales increased 2.1% to $422.0 million. Adjusted EBITDA increased 13.1% to $106.4 million, representing 25.2% of sales compared to 22.8% of sales during the prior year period. We had projected adjusted EBITDA of $99.5 million.
Meaningful debt reduction. Cash from operations during the fiscal first quarter amounted to $314.8 million, including proceeds of $273.2 million received from AVAIL’s sale of the Electrical Products Group. Following debt reduction of $285.4 million, AZZ ended the quarter with a net leverage ratio of 1.7x TTM adjusted EBITDA. As of May 31, long-term debt, gross was $614.9 million compared to $900.3 million on February 28. Net of unamortized debt issuance costs, long-term debt was $569.8 million on May 31 compared to $852.4 million on February 28.
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$3.4 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Meeting Highlights Tegoprubart Data Milestones and New Indications Rating: OUTPERFORM
R&D Day Highlighted Science, Current Trials, Future Indications. We attended the Eledon R&D Day on July 9 to hear and evaluate the progress in tegoprubart development. The presentations focused on the current clinical indications in renal transplantation, islet cell transplantation, xenotransplants, and plans for liver and other solid organ transplants. Conference presentation dates for upcoming data announcements were also announced.
Phase 1b Data Update Is Planned For August. The Phase 1b open-label trial has been expanded to enroll up to 36 patients, an increase from the original 9 patients. Data is scheduled for presentation at the World Transplant Congress on August 9, 2025. Previous data presentations have included 13 patients. We expect to see follow-up data from more patients treated longer, with data from additional patients beyond the initial 12-month trial duration.
Updating estimates. We are increasing our 2025 adjusted EBITDA and EPU estimates to $676.5 million and $2.55, respectively, from $672.6 million and $2.52. We increased our crude oil and natural gas price estimates based on CME futures settlements, which had a positive impact on oil and gas royalty revenue. Our 2026 adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates are unchanged at $678.3 million and $2.60, respectively. While management expects the average coal sales price per ton to trend lower in 2026 due to higher-priced contracts rolling off, we think 2025 longwall moves and actions to improve productivity and cost effectiveness could help offset the impact of lower prices.
Recent legislation expected to benefit the fossil fuel industry. Following several executive orders earlier in the year intended to support the coal industry and delay coal power plant retirements, the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) was signed into law on July 4 and is expected to benefit the fossil fuel industry. Among other things, the BBB phases out many of the clean energy tax credits established under the Inflation Reduction Act and creates a supportive environment for oil, gas, and coal production.
E.W. Scripps (SSP/$3.42 | Price Target: $10) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Strengthening Its Station Portfolio Rating: OUTPERFORM
Compelling station swap. Scripps will be selling its stations in Lansing MI and Lafayette LA to Gray Television (GTN: Not Rated) and buying stations in Colorado Springs, CO and Grand Junction, CO and a station in Twin Falls ID. We view the move favorably, given that Scripps will create station duopolies and strengthen its presence in the West. We believe that the move will create significant efficiencies for both companies, eliminating back office, duplicative, and overhead costs. This will be an even swap with no cash compensation to either party.
FCC fast track? The FCC has signaled its willingness to fast track the regulatory process, likely to provide a “waiver” to create duopolies rather than to seek a longer review/rulemaking process. As such, we believe that the transaction could be completed by year end.
Xcel Brands (XELB/$1.58 | Price Target: $9) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Seeking Fuel For Growth Rating: OUTPERFORM
Files S1. The company plans to sell 1.381 million shares on a “best efforts” basis and pre-funded warrants. Pre-funded warrants are exercisable at any time after the date of issuance and may be exercised at any time. Notably, management has indicated its interest in participating in the offering for up to 10% of the shares. Following the prospective sale, total shares outstanding would increase to 3.819 million shares.
Use of proceeds. Based on the current stock price and assuming all shares are sold, management expects to generate roughly $1.9 million in net proceeds from the offering. The company plans to use the proceeds for working capital and general corporate purposes and toward a $50,000 principal loan payment to a company controlled by Robert D’Loren, the company’s Chairman and CEO.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, July 3, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – A Debt Refi Government Solutions (Government Solutions) – CoreCivic and GEO poised to Benefit From Big Beautiful Bill MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – Rec Sales to Begin in Delaware ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – Diners Seeking “Uniqueness and Entertainment”
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$2 | Price Target: $4) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A Debt Refi Rating: OUTPERFORM
Refi. Commercial Vehicle Group successfully refinanced its debt, extending the maturity out to 2030 from 2027. We believe this should provide the Company with additional financial flexibility as management continues to drive further operational efficiency.
Details. The Company went from an $85 million term loan to a $95 million term loan and from a $125 million ABL to a $115 million ABL. Proceeds were used to repay $120.1 million outstanding under the previous facility. The initial interest rate on the term loan is 9.75%, although future rates will have a tiered interest cost based on the consolidated leverage ratio. The initial ABL rate is SOFR plus 1.75%.
Government Solutions Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 CoreCivic and GEO poised to Benefit From Big Beautiful Bill
Big Beautiful Bill. The Senate version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” aligns with or even improves upon the House version when it comes to spending on immigration. While it remains to be seen the exact version that will come out of the reconciliation process and be sent to President Trump for his signature, the proposed versions should prove to be beneficial to both CoreCivic and The GEO Group.
Detention Budget. Both the Senate and House proposals call for $45 billion of funding for detention capacity or an additional $10.6 billion annually through fiscal 2029. This would represent an over 300% increase over the current detention budget. This level of funding could support detention bed capacity in excess of 115,000 beds, up from a current 41,500.
MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.08 | Price Target: $0.25) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Rec Sales to Begin in Delaware Rating: OUTPERFORM
Recreational Cannabis. After legislation approving recreational cannabis in April 2023, Delaware will finally commence sales of recreational cannabis on August 1st of this year. Legal recreational cannabis can be purchased in the 13 existing medical dispensaries as well as through the 30 recreational licenses the state has approved. We expect sales to be derived not only from the state population, many of whom currently travel to existing legal states such as Maryland and New Jersey to obtain the product, but also from the estimated 30 million tourists that visit the state annually.
Delaware Market. Delaware has had a medical market for a while. The market is estimated to be approximately $50 million in size, with flattish growth to 2029 when the medical is projected to rise to $55 million. The recreational cannabis market could grow to the $250-$300 million level, according to various government projections.
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$4.75 | Price Target: $5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Diners Seeking “Uniqueness and Entertainment” Rating: OUTPERFORM
Diner Views. Today’s diners are seeking out venues that prioritize entertainment and uniqueness, according to a Yelp survey that analyzed consumer web searches from January to March. The Yelp findings are in-line with recent research by hospitality management platform SevenRooms. According to SevenRooms’ 2025 U.S. Restaurant Industry Trends, consumers who dine out value unique experiences, even at a premium, with 74% of consumers returning to a restaurant after a unique experience.
A Vibe Dining Leader. As a leader in Vibe Dining, ONE Hospitality is well positioned to capitalize on this trend through its portfolio of concepts, including chains STK, Benihana, Kona Grill, and RA Sushi, as well as the Salt Water Social and Samurai concepts. These upscale and polished casual, high-energy restaurants and lounges provide entertainment and unique experiences for diners, as well as one-of-a-kind, celebratory experiences that bring customers back.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, July 2, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – AZZ Acquires Canton Galvanizing, LLC GoHealth (GOCO)/OUTPERFORM – Credit Amendment Provides Reprieve Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – A Cooperation Agreement and New Directors The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – From Lease to Ownership
AZZ (AZZ/$96.74 | Price Target: $112) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 AZZ Acquires Canton Galvanizing, LLC Rating: OUTPERFORM
Bolt-on acquisition. AZZ Inc. entered into an agreement to acquire all the assets of Canton Galvanizing, LLC, a privately held hot dip galvanizing company based in Canton, Ohio. While the terms of the transaction were not disclosed, AZZ expects the transaction to be accretive to earnings within the first year of operation. Founded in 2019, Canton provides hot-dip galvanizing to customers in the U.S. Midwest and specializes in coating small to mid-size parts.
Strengthens AZZ’s presence in the U.S. Midwest. The strategic acquisition expands AZZ’s Metal Coatings capabilities in the US. Midwest and increases its total galvanizing network to 42 sites in North America. It has been renamed AZZ Galvanizing – Canton East LLC. With a spinning operation and a 21-foot kettle, Canton is known for quick turnaround times and excellent customer service.
GoHealth (GOCO/$5.92 | Price Target: $25) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Credit Amendment Provides Reprieve Rating: OUTPERFORM
Amended credit agreement. On June 30, the company announced an amendment to its credit agreement, extending the maturity of the company’s Class A Revolving Commitments from Q2 end to Q3 end. Moreover, any interest due on the revolver and refinanced term loans through that date will be paid in-kind. The amendment also waived financial covenant testing for Q2 and Q3, offering the company a temporary liquidity reprieve.
Cost of amendment. As part of the amendment, GoHealth will pay a 1.00% amendment fee to consenting lenders, which, along with all interest through September 30, will be paid in-kind and added to the principal balance of its loans. As a result, we estimate these provisions will increase the company’s outstanding debt by approximately $6 million.
Resources Connection (RGP/$5.76 | Price Target: $15) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | A Cooperation Agreement and New Directors Rating: OUTPERFORM
Cooperation Agreement. Resources Connection has entered into a “Cooperation Agreement” with shareholder Circumference Group LLC. According to a Form 3 filing of June 30th, Circumference owns 1,289,243 RGP shares, representing 3.9% of the common shares outstanding as of March 31st.
Board Changes. As part of the Cooperation Agreement, RGP appointed Jeff Fox, founding partner and CEO of Circumference Group, and Filip Gyde, former CEO of Computer Task Group, to the Board. Current Board members Anthony Cherbak and Neil Dimick will retire from the Board following the conclusion of their terms in October 2025.
The GEO Group (GEO/$24.49 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 From Lease to Ownership Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Purchase. The GEO Group is purchasing the currently leased 770-bed Western Region Detention facility for $60 million, or $77,900/bed. GEO is currently leasing the facility at a cost of $5.1 million annually. GEO has had a long-term contract with the U.S. Marshals Service for use of the facility, which generates approximately $57 million of annualized revenue.
A Tax Savings. Expected to close by the end of July, the transaction is expected to be funded as a like kind real estate property exchange with proceeds from the previously announced sale of the GEO-owned Lawton Correctional Facility, which is expected to close on July 25th, resulting in an estimated capital gains cash tax savings of approximately $9.5 million.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, July 1, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Some Award Updates Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Completes $575 Million Capital Raise Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – CRL Letter Received As Second Manufacturer Generates Data
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$12.19 | Price Target: $14) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Some Award Updates Rating: OUTPERFORM
Awards. Yesterday, Great Lakes provided an update on some recent awards. Each of the awards adds to the Company’s significant backlog, which stood at approximately $1 billion with an additional $265 million in low bids and options pending award at the end of the first quarter. The large backlog, with a majority being higher margin capital projects, provides strong visibility for 2025 and into 2026.
Woodside LNG. The Company received Notice to Proceed from Bechtel Energy for dredging work on the Woodside Louisiana LNG project. The first phase of work, which was awarded in the second quarter of 2025, includes the construction of a ship berthing basin for use by large LNG carriers, with potential for award of two options to expand the scope of construction for additional ship berths. Dredging operations are expected to commence in early 2026.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$46.45 | Price Target: $44) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Completes $575 Million Capital Raise Rating: OUTPERFORM
Capital Raise. Kratos completed its previously announced offering of Kratos common stock, raising $575 million in gross proceeds, at a public offering price of $38.50 per share, for a total of 14,935,065 shares of common stock, which includes the exercise of the underwriter’s option to purchase additional shares. Net proceeds from the offering were approximately $556 million. Noble Capital participated as a co-manager of the offering.
Use of Proceeds. Kratos expects to use the net proceeds of the offering to (i) fund investments and capital expenditures to scale and successfully execute on large, mission critical National Security priorities related to existing programs, recent program awards and significant high-probability pipeline opportunities; (ii) to finance important customer and program targeted acquisitions; (iii) and for general corporate purposes.
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$4.77 | Price Target: $60) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 CRL Letter Received As Second Manufacturer Generates Data Rating: OUTPERFORM
Approval Delay Is Not A Surprise. Unicycive announced that it has received a Complete Response Letter (CRL) in response to its New Drug Application (NDA) for Oxylanthanum Carbonate (OLC). This was expected following the announcement earlier this month stating that the FDA manufacturing inspection had found deficiencies with one of the OLC contract manufacturers. The company has switched to one of its other manufacturers, which we believe can resolve the issues quickly. We see approval possible around 4Q25 to 1Q26.
Plans To Address The Issues. Unicycive plans to hold a Type A meeting with the FDA to determine its requirements for resolution of the issues cited in the CRL. The company’s second manufacturer already produces OLC and has been generating data for FDA certification. This should allow Unicycive to submit any additional data requested quickly to resolve the issue.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, June 30, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Promising New Data Highlights the Potential for a Significant Copper Discovery
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.17 | Price Target: $0.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Promising New Data Highlights the Potential for a Significant Copper Discovery Rating: OUTPERFORM
Application of two-dimensional inversion technology. Aurania Resources announced that six highly conductive anomalies have been revealed at the company’s Awacha porphyry copper target based on reprocessed data from a 2021 mobile magnetotellurics (MobileMT) survey using the latest two-dimensional (2D) inversion technology. Compared to the previously employed 1D algorithm, the 2.5D code accounts for the actual topography of the area, resulting in more accurate mapping of subsurface conductivity.
Six promising anomalies at Awacha. New inversion data has confirmed the presence of six high-conductivity anomalies that begin 250 meters from the surface and exhibit deep roots. The anomalies are of significant interest because zones of elevated conductivity often correlate with porphyry copper deposits due to the presence of conductive sulphide minerals and porphyry-related alteration.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, June 27, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Quarterly Cash Dividend Increased by 17.6%, 1Q FY2026 Financial Results to be Released on July 9 Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – A Flurry of News Steelcase (SCS)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – An $118 Million Contract
AZZ (AZZ/$92.75 | Price Target: $112) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Quarterly Cash Dividend Increased by 17.6%, 1Q FY2026 Financial Results to be Released on July 9 Rating: OUTPERFORM
Increase in the quarterly cash dividend. AZZ announced a 17.6% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.20 per share, or $0.80 on an annualized basis, from $0.17 per share, or $0.68 on an annualized basis. The dividend is payable on July 31 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on July 10. In our view, the dividend increase reflects management’s confidence in the company’s near- and long-term outlook.
First Quarter FY 2026 financial results. AZZ will release its first quarter financial results after the market close on Wednesday, July 9. Management will host an investor conference call and webcast on Thursday, July 10, at 11:00 am ET. We look forward to an update regarding the company’s new aluminum coil coating facility in Washington, Missouri, that is ramping up production, along with a review of market fundamentals and the company’s capital allocation priorities.
Bit Digital (BTBT/$1.99 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 A Flurry of News Rating: OUTPERFORM
News. Bit Digital released a flurry of news over the past two days, including a strategic shift in its business strategy, the potential IPO of its WhiteFiber subsidiary, and a $150 million equity offering. Needless to say, a lot to digest. If completed, the announced shifts would result in a significant change to Bit Digital.
Ethereum Focus. Operationally, Bit Digital will exit the bitcoin mining business and transition to become a pure-play Ethereum staking and treasury company. Given the economics of bitcoin mining versus Ethereum staking, we see the rationale in the move. The Company has commenced a strategic alternatives process for the Bitcoin mining operations.
Steelcase (SCS/$10.89 | Price Target: $16) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Post Call Commentary Rating: OUTPERFORM
Mixed Environment. Steelcase continues to face a mixed environment, both on a vertical basis and a geographical basis. The key large corporate customer cohort is doing well, driven by a number of factors such as return to office, but education and government have been hit by funding uncertainties. Germany and France remain sluggish in the key small-to-mid-sized business, but India and China are doing better.
International Actions. Steelcase is taking steps to implement additional cost reduction efforts in Europe, given the weak macroeconomic factors and lower demand in France and Germany. A goal of these actions is to get the International segment back to profitability.
V2X (VVX/$48.47 | Price Target: $72) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 An $118 Million Contract Rating: OUTPERFORM
Support Services. According to the daily Department of Defense contract announcements, V2X subsidiary Vectrus Systems has been awarded an $118 million cost-plus-fixed-fee undefinitized contract for base support services in support of the Iraq F-16 program. This is another in a long line of recent wins for V2X, demonstrating the V2X value proposition and confirming the significant traction on near-term Foreign Military and International opportunities previously highlighted by management.
Details. The contract provides for base operating support, base life support, and security services. Work will be performed at Martyr BG Ali Flaih Air Base, Iraq, and is expected to be completed by Nov. 30, 2026. This contract involves Foreign Military Sales (FMS) to Iraq. This contract was a sole source acquisition. FMS funds in the amount of $57.8 million are being obligated at the time of award.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, June 26, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Steelcase (SCS)/OUTPERFORM – First Look At A Solid First Quarter
Steelcase (SCS/$10.62 | Price Target: $16) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 First Look At A Solid First Quarter Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q26. Steelcase reported solid results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Revenue grew 7% y-o-y to $779 million, towards the upper end of guidance. We had forecast $760 million and the consensus was $762 million. Gross margin of 33.9% was up 170 bp y-o-y and above management’s 33% guide. Steelcase reported net income of $13.6 million, or EPS of $0.11, and adjusted EPS of $0.20, compared to $10.9 million, $0.09, and $0.16, respectively, last year. We were at adjusted EPS of $0.14, while consensus was $0.13.
Quarterly Drivers. The Americas business was up 9%, both on a reported and organic basis, driven by a higher beginning backlog compared to the prior year and included strong growth from large corporate, government, and healthcare customers. International was up 1% on a reported basis but down 1% on an organic basis, driven by declines in Germany and France, mostly offset by growth in India, the UK, and China.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, June 25, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE) /MARKET PERFORM – Strategic Partnership with Virtus Renewables
Comstock (LODE/$3.55) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Strategic Partnership with Virtus Renewables Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Strategic partnership with Virtus. Comstock Metals forged a strategic partnership with Virtus Renewables Service Group Inc. Comstock and Virtus will jointly develop and deliver comprehensive recycling, decommissioning, and logistics solutions designed to suit the specific needs of the renewable energy markets. The partnership enables a systemwide service offering with expanded industry reach to offer environmentally conscious solutions for renewable energy clients across the United States.
Mutual benefits. Virtus offers a comprehensive suite of operations, project management, and maintenance services for solar and battery storage projects. Combining Virtus’s end-to-end renewable energy service expertise with Comstock’s industry-leading, zero-landfill solution enhances its ability to serve the renewable energy market and benefit from a full lifecycle certification process that adheres to the highest standards of sustainability, reliability, and service. Comstock is the first solar panel recycling company in North America to be certified by Sustainable Electronics Recycling International (SERI) to the R2v3/RIOS Responsible Recycling Standard.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, June 24, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – New Credit Agreement Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Potential Fuel for Growth Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – Merger Agreement Moves NeoCart Into A New Company QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – Raising Price Target On Favorable Outlook
Bit Digital (BTBT/$2.32 | Price Target: $5.5) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | New Credit Agreement Rating: OUTPERFORM
Credit Agreement. Yesterday, Bit Digital’s WhiteFiber subsidiary announced a CAD$60 million credit facility with Royal Bank of Canada (RBC). We view this step favorably, as the facility not only provides funds to support the continued buildout of WhiteFiber’s Tier-3 AI data center portfolio but also is a confirmation of Bit Digital’s AI business model, in our view.
Terms. While we expect an 8-K to be filed with a full accounting of the terms, the credit agreement is among RBC and ENOVUM Data Centers Corp. and its Montreal II project as borrowers and guarantors, and is non-recourse to WhiteFiber or Bit Digital. It encompasses a real estate term loan, equipment financing, and a revolving facility. The facilities carry interest rates of CORRA plus 250 bps and a 3-year term.
Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$5.35 | Price Target: $9) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Potential Fuel for Growth Rating: OUTPERFORM
Shelf registration. On June 20, the company filed a registration statement with the SEC for a $100 million mixed securities shelf registration, which could include Class A common stock, preferred shares, warrants, and units. The registration statement also included an at the money (ATM) sales agreement, which will allow the company to sell up to $50 million in class A common shares directly into the market.
Bolstering capital availability. We view the registration positively, as it provides the company with flexibility to raise capital opportunistically based on market conditions and the strength of BTM’s share price, which is up approximately 230% year-to-date. Importantly, this added capital access could support strategic initiatives such as tuck-in acquisitions or the purchase of additional kiosks, positioning the company to accelerate its network expansion and long-term revenue growth trajectory.
Ocugen (OCGN/$0.98 | Price Target: $8) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Merger Agreement Moves NeoCart Into A New Company Rating: OUTPERFORM
NeoCart Transferred To Form New Regenerative Medicine Company. Ocugen has announced that it has entered into a merger agreement with Carisma Therapeutics to form a new company. Ocugen will transfer its wholly-owned regenerative medicine division, OrthoCellix, including NeoCart, an autologous cartilage implant technology that uses a patient’s cells to repair articular cartilage defects in the knee. The all-stock transaction is valued at $150 million, with Ocugen shareholders owning 90% of the new company.
We Expect The New Company To Accelerate NeoCart Development. Ocugen has been refining the Phase 3 trial design and has planned to start Phase 3 trials during FY2025. NeoCart has received Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy (RMAT) designation, which accelerates BLA review and could lead to faster approval. While the NeoCart data has been strong, NeoCart was a legacy product that was acquired by Ocugen as part of its 2019 reverse merger with Histogenics. Regenerative medicine is outside Ocugen’s main focus, and we believe it can be developed more rapidly by a company focused on regenerative medicine.
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.16 | Price Target: $0.23) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Raising Price Target On Favorable Outlook Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q1 Results. The company reported solid Q1 results, with revenue growing 3% over the prior year period to $4.8 million, marking the highest quarterly revenue in the company’s history. Adj. EBITDA of $0.4 million in Q1 was moderately lower than our estimate of $0.5 million estimate. We believe its business pipeline appears to be improving and should gain momentum throughout the year and into 2026.
Capitalizing less development costs. Notably, the company capitalized less development costs in Q1 than in prior quarters, leading to more development costs expensed in Q1. While this impacted Q1, we believe that margins should improve as the company begins to recognize the revenue from the new business “wins” in future quarters. Furthermore, the company will be expensing development costs at a similar rate to Q1 moving forward.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, June 23, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Nicola Commences 2025 New Craigmont Exploration Drilling
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.51 | Price Target: $0.5) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Nicola Commences 2025 New Craigmont Exploration Drilling Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Craigmont drilling program. Nicola Mining (TSX.V: NIM, OTCQB: HUSIF) has commenced the 2025 exploration and diamond drilling program at its New Craigmont Copper Project, which will entail 4,000 to 5,000 meters of drilling. The program is expected to run from June through September and cost $1.5 million to $2.0 million. The purpose of the 2025 program is to collect geological data for target development for a potential porphyry copper system at New Craigmont.
Identifying targets using artificial intelligence. In collaboration with ALS Geoanalytics (formerly ALS GoldSpot), five priority targets, three of which are included in the 2025 program, were identified using artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods to analyze and correlate geophysical and geochemical data from Nicola’s exploration data. The collaboration harnesses the power of AI to identify high-potential targets which could increase the probability of successful outcomes.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, June 20, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Start to 2025 MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA)/OUTPERFORM – Roche Forms Agreement For THIO Combination Studies Nutriband (NTRB)/OUTPERFORM – Manufacturing Milestone Allows Development To Move Forward As Expected
Euroseas (ESEA/$45.69 | Price Target: $53) Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | Strong Start to 2025 Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter 2025 financial results. Euroseas Ltd. reported adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share (EPS) of $37.1 million and $3.76, respectively, compared to $24.6 million and $2.66 during the prior year period. Revenue increased due to a higher average number of vessels compared to the same period last year, while operating expenses declined. We had projected adjusted EBITDA and EPS of $34.7 million and $3.35, respectively. Relative to our estimates, revenues were higher, based on an average daily time charter equivalent rate of $27,806, versus our estimate of $26,221, while operating expenses were lower. Vessel operating expenses totaled $12.3 million compared to our estimate of $13.3 million.
Market outlook. The containership sector may face some challenges, including the potential for transit to resume through the Suez Canal, weaker economic conditions due to fluid trade policies, and a high industry order book, which could increase the supply of vessels. However, the company’s strong charter coverage through 2026 could insulate it from the potential for lower rates. Moreover, the feeder and intermediate segments of the market have relatively low order books, and demand for vessels remains strong.
MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA/$1.8 | Price Target: $14) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Roche Forms Agreement For THIO Combination Studies Rating: OUTPERFORM
MAIA Makes Its Third Supply Agreement. MAIA announced that it has entered a supply agreement with Genentech/Roche to test THIO (ateganosine) in combination with Tecentriq (atezolizumab, Roche’s PD-L1 checkpoint inhibitor) for the treatment of several hard-to-treat cancers. MAIA now has supply agreements to test THIO in combination with checkpoint inhibitors from three global pharmaceutical companies, which we see as an indicator of interest for future partnerships.
PD-1 or PD-1L? That Is The Question. Checkpoint inhibitors block the interaction of the surface proteins PD-1 (programmed death receptor-1) with PD-1L (the programed death receptor-1 ligand). When the PD-1 receptor binds to the PD-1L ligand, it inhibits the immune response. Checkpoint inhibitors are monoclonal antibody drugs against PD-1 or PD-L1 that block this interaction, allowing cancer cells to be recognized by a patient’s immune system and killed.
Nutriband (NTRB/$7.79 | Price Target: $15) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Manufacturing Milestone Allows Development To Move Forward As Expected Rating: OUTPERFORM
Preparing For AVERSA Fentanyl Clinical Testing. Nutriband and its partner Kindeva announced that it has completed commercial manufacturing processes and scale-up for AVERSA Fentanyl, its abuse-deterrent fentanyl patch. This allows the company begin manufacturing clinical supplies and filing the IND (Investigational New Drug application) for the Phase 1 clinical study within the timeframe we anticipated. Only a single Phase 1 study is needed to file the application for marketing approval.
Manufacturing Completion Is A Significant Milestone. This scale-up is a significant step that demonstrates the ability to apply Kindeva’s transdermal patch technology for commercial scale production of AVERSA Fentanyl patches. We expect the IND filing to be completed shortly, with clinical testing to follow as expected.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, June 18, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
GoHealth (GOCO)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)/OUTPERFORM – Mitigates Tariff Risks Much Faster Than Expected
GoHealth (GOCO/$5.46 | Price Target: $25) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Rating: OUTPERFORM
Highlights from Noble’s Emerging Growth Virtual Conference. Vijay Kotte, CEO, presented at Noble’s Virtual Equity conference June 4 & 5th. Mr. Kotte highlighted the company’s proprietary technology, consumer-centric Medicare policy platform, and gave an update on recent developments. A rebroadcast is available here.
Purpose-built technology. Mr. Kotte emphasized the company’s use of proprietary machine learning tools alongside licensed agents to tailor recommendations to each consumer’s needs. With Medicare beneficiaries typically choosing from 40–50 plans, this technology plays a key role in efficiently identifying the most suitable options.
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE/$1.48 | Price Target: $2.5) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Mitigates Tariff Risks Much Faster Than Expected Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q1 results. the company reported Q1 revenue of $57.9 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $3.0 million, both of which were better than our estimates of $56.0 million and a loss of $5.5 million, respectively. Notably, while revenue and adj. EBITDA are both modestly lower than the prior year period; we view the Q1 results favorably, given the company’s ability to manage the uncertain tariff outlook.
Tariff mitigation. The company highlighted that it has been taking steps to reduce its exposure to China, currently roughly 60% of its cost of goods sold. Notably, the company is sourcing from other countries and expects that China will be roughly 25% of its cost of goods by the end of 2025. The company has leadership located in the sourcing countries to ensure product quality.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, June 17, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – EMA Allows GEO-MVA To Leapfrog To Phase 3 Trial In EU Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – New Award and Expansion; Raising PT Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – Stargardt Disease Program Moves To Phase 2/3 Trial SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – New USMS Transportation Contract
GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$1.32 | Price Target: $10) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 EMA Allows GEO-MVA To Leapfrog To Phase 3 Trial In EU Rating: OUTPERFORM
GEO-MVA Gets An Accelerated Pathway To European Approval. GeoVax announced that it has received guidance from the EMA (European Medicines Agency) that provides an accelerated path to approval for GEO-MVA, its modified vaccinia ankara (MVA) based vaccine for smallpox/Mpox. It will only be required to conduct immune-bridging and toxicity studies before moving directly to Phase 3. This cuts several years from development time and saves many millions of dollars in clinical expenses.
Only Phase 3 Will Be Needed. The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) of the EMA stated that only requirements before beginning a Phase 3 study will be a non-clinical immuno-bridging and toxicity studies. No Phase 1 or Phase 2 studies are required. An MAA regulatory application can be submitted after a single, Phase 3 immuno-bridging study against the approved MVA vaccine (Imvanex or Jynneos, from Bavarian Nordic). The proposed endpoints of the study would be demonstration of immunogenicity to show non-inferiority.
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$41.21 | Price Target: $44) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com | New Award and Expansion; Raising PT Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Award. Kratos was awarded a $25 million task order under the Command and Control System-Consolidated Sustainment and Resiliency contract with the U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command to support ground system capabilities for Evolved Strategic Satellite Communications (ESS). The ESS system will provide the survivable and endurable satellite communications capability for the Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications mission in all operational environments.
Details. The task order has a 34-month period of performance, which began on March 14th and will conclude on November 30, 2027. This was accomplished under the C-SAR single-award indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract awarded to Kratos on November 15, 2023. The C-SAR IDIQ contract has a maximum value of $579 million to cover task/delivery orders to support operations, sustainment, enhancements, and constellation capacity.
Ocugen (OCGN/$1.16 | Price Target: $8) Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625 Stargardt Disease Program Moves To Phase 2/3 Trial Rating: OUTPERFORM
OCU410ST Cleared To Begin Confirmatory Trial. Ocugen announced that the FDA has approved its IND amendment to allow OCU410ST to begin its Phase 2/3 pivotal confirmatory trial. This will become the second Ocugen product to move into a Phase 2/3 confirmatory trial, and keeps the company on schedule to meet its goal of submitting three BLAs in the three years between 2026-28.
Brief Description of Stargardt Disease. Stargardt disease is a rare autosomal recessive disease caused by mutations in the ABCA4 gene in the retina. Progressive loss of photoreceptor cells in the retina typically starts at a young age, leading to blindness. Ocugen has received Orphan Drug designation and Rare Pediatric Disease Designation (RPDD) for diseases associated with ABCA4 diseases, including Stargardt, retinitis pigmentosa 19, and cone-rod dystrophy 3.
SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.26 | Price Target: $5) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Rating: OUTPERFORM
Highlights from Noble’s Emerging Growth Virtual Conference. Lenny Sokolow, Co-CEO, presented at Noble’s Virtual Equity conference June 4 & 5th. Mr. Sokolow discussed the company’s innovative technology, commercial partnerships, and its quest for mandatory standardization with the NEC, among other topics. A rebroadcast is available here.
Mandatory standardization efforts getting a boost. Management remains optimistic about its push for mandatory standardization, citing recent backing from a prominent government safety leader. The company’s “Code Team” expects further support from key safety organizations to advance its ceiling receptacle technology as a regulatory standard.
The GEO Group (GEO/$24.9 | Price Target: $35) Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262 New USMS Transportation Contract Rating: OUTPERFORM
USMS Contract. The GEO Group, through its GEO Transport subsidiary, has entered into a new 5-year contract, including option periods, with the U.S. Marshals Service (USMS) for the provision of secure transportation and contract detention officer services across three service regions covering 26 federal judicial districts and spanning 14 states. The new contract highlights the Company’s diversified service platform, in our view, which provides the Company with numerous growth avenues.
Impact. The new contract is expected to generate up to approximately $147 million over the five-year period, or up to approximately $29 million in annualized revenues per full-year of operations, with margins consistent with GEO’s Managed-Only services contracts, which average approximately 15%.
Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, June 16, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Superior Group of Companies (SGC)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – A New Addition To The Russell
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$9.73 | Price Target: $23) Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266 Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Rating: OUTPERFORM
Highlights from Noble’s Emerging Growth Virtual Conference. Tim Herr, Senior Vice President of Finance, presented at Noble’s Virtual Equity conference June 4 & 5th. Mr. Herr highlighted the company’s high-margin leasing model, market opportunity, and strategic initiatives. A rebroadcast is available here.
Attractive unit economics driven by high-margin lease model. Sky Harbour secures long-term airport ground leases at highly favorable rates, often below $1 per square foot annually. Although only 25–33% of each site is convertible into revenue-generating hangar space, that portion can lease for $40 or more per square foot, creating a substantial economic spread.
Superior Group of Companies (SGC/$9.79 | Price Target: $16) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | Noble Virtual Conference Highlights Rating: OUTPERFORM
Highlights its investment merits. On June 5, the company presented at the Noble Virtual Conference to the investment community. The presentation conducted by Michael Benstock, CEO, and Mike Koempel, CFO, highlighted the company’s diverse business segments, favorable history of growth, and solid financial position. A replay of the presentation is available for viewing here.
Diverse business segments. The company operates three distinct business segments: Healthcare Apparel, Branded Products, and Contact Centers. Importantly, all three of the company’s segments have favorable organic growth opportunities, are profitable, and have compelling acquisition target opportunities. Furthermore, the company has a solid history of growth, with consolidated revenue growing at an 8% CAGR from 2019 through 2024.
Travelzoo (TZOO/$12.5 | Price Target: $28) Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734 Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com | A New Addition To The Russell Rating: OUTPERFORM
Joining the Russell. On June 10, the company announced that it is expected to join the Russell 3000 Index at market open on June 27. Notably, membership in the Russell 3000 Index, which remains active for one year, provides the company with automatic inclusion in the Russell 2000 Index.
Improved share visibility. In our view, joining the Russell Indices could provide a meaningful impact for the TZOO shares. Notably, we believe the inclusion in the Russell indices is likely to enhance the company’s share visibility among institutional investors and has the potential to increase trading volume, improve share liquidity, and introduce new investors to the company. As such, we view the development favorably.
Key Points: – Figma’s IPO surged 242%, pushing its market cap near $55B. – AI-powered tools, 46% revenue growth, and strong margins fuel investor demand. – CEO Dylan Field retains control and eyes future expansion, including M&A.
Figma Inc. stunned Wall Street on Thursday with a meteoric debut on the New York Stock Exchange, soaring 242% above its IPO price and closing in on a $55 billion valuation. The design software company raised $1.2 billion in its offering, marking one of the most explosive IPO launches in recent tech history.
Shares opened at $33 but quickly surged to over $112 before being halted twice for volatility. Demand was extraordinary—the IPO was more than 40 times oversubscribed, with many institutional investors receiving no allocation. The excitement vaulted Figma’s valuation well past the $20 billion figure from its canceled merger with Adobe in 2023, which had been derailed by regulatory scrutiny.
Founded in 2012 by Dylan Field and Evan Wallace, Figma has revolutionized web-based design tools, offering real-time collaboration across browsers. Over time, the platform has evolved beyond interface design to support development workflows, workplace collaboration, and, more recently, AI-driven prototyping. Its latest tool, Figma Make, turns user prompts into functioning design prototypes using artificial intelligence.
The IPO included 12.47 million shares sold by the company, while major early investors like Index Ventures and Greylock Partners offloaded 24.46 million shares. Based on the last trading price before halts, Figma’s fully diluted valuation—including employee stock options—exceeds $65 billion.
CEO Dylan Field, who controls over 74% of the company’s voting power through Class B shares, now holds a stake worth nearly $4.9 billion. His recently awarded 10-year “moon-shot” compensation package begins to vest only if the stock maintains a 60-day average above $60. At current prices, he’s well on his way to surpassing even the highest $130 performance hurdle.
Figma’s first-quarter performance was impressive, with 46% year-over-year revenue growth and a net income of $44.9 million on $228 million in revenue. Despite a full-year net loss of $732 million in 2024—largely due to increased R&D and expansion efforts—its 92% gross margin puts it ahead of many of its SaaS peers, giving it ample runway for aggressive growth.
With its public debut, Figma signals a revival in the IPO market, becoming the first major U.S. software company to go public since SailPoint in early 2025. Its successful auction-style order-taking process and investor enthusiasm are seen as green lights for other venture-backed tech firms contemplating IPOs this year.
As Figma eyes expansion, Field says M&A is on the table—but only if the team and culture align. “We’re just getting started,” he noted, emphasizing that public listing is not the end goal but a launchpad for broader ambitions.
The company now trades under the ticker symbol FIG on the NYSE. With demand red-hot and the AI design space heating up, Figma’s future appears as sharply defined as the interfaces it helps bring to life.
Wall Street’s confidence is building again as key analysts revise their year-end forecasts sharply upward, signaling optimism in equity markets. One of the most bullish views yet comes with a new S&P 500 target of 7,100 by the end of 2025—a level that would reflect a third consecutive year of 20%+ gains for the benchmark index. Driving this aggressive projection is fading concern over global trade tensions, recently stabilized by new tariff frameworks between the U.S. and the European Union. The return of corporate earnings strength and improved guidance across industries is further fueling the outlook.
Yet while risk appetite appears to be returning in equities, investor behavior in the commodities space tells a different story. Gold continues to hover above $3,000 per ounce, holding ground well above its average 2024 levels and confirming its role as a key hedge in the current economic climate. A recent Reuters poll of market professionals projects an average price of $3,220 for gold this year, with expectations pushing as high as $4,000 by the end of 2026 if fiscal uncertainty deepens.
The persistent strength in gold suggests investors are hedging more than just interest rate risk. Geopolitical instability, mounting national debt, and global currency diversification strategies—particularly among central banks—are reinforcing gold’s long-term value. Countries like China continue to add to their gold reserves, while confidence in the U.S. dollar as the dominant reserve currency faces renewed scrutiny.
Silver has joined the precious metals rally too, outperforming gold so far in 2025 with gains over 30% and flirting with the $40 mark for the first time in over a decade. Like gold, silver’s surge is being driven by both investor demand and fears surrounding fiscal policy, trade disruption, and central bank behavior. Analysts now project silver could reach an average of $38 per ounce next year, with spot market tightness and ETF inflows providing strong momentum—though some warn of short-term vulnerability if demand slows.
This complex environment raises questions for investors. On one hand, equity markets are being buoyed by stronger-than-expected earnings, renewed consumer activity, and stabilization of global trade policies. On the other, the rush into safe-haven assets like gold and silver—alongside inflationary pressures and ballooning deficits—suggests a current of caution running beneath the surface.
The S&P 500’s rally may reflect optimism about earnings growth and reduced short-term economic friction, but the ongoing strength in precious metals reminds us that deeper, unresolved risks remain. The juxtaposition of record equity prices and record gold prices illustrates a bifurcated sentiment: a market reaching for growth while bracing for the fallout of long-term fiscal imbalances.
As the second half of 2025 unfolds, both the bullish momentum in equities and the elevated levels of gold and silver will be closely watched. Whether this unusual alignment signals resilience or the calm before a shift in sentiment remains to be seen.
President Trump on Friday put the likelihood of a trade agreement with the European Union at “50-50,” casting a shadow over negotiations that had shown signs of momentum in recent weeks. With an August 1 deadline looming, both sides had expressed optimism that a deal could be reached, but Trump’s remarks suggest growing skepticism — or a last-minute negotiating tactic. The European Commission’s president is set to meet Trump this weekend at his golf course in Scotland in what may be a final push to secure an agreement.
Simultaneously, complications are surfacing in a newly announced trade deal with Japan. Just days after Trump unveiled the $550 billion Japanese investment and a baseline 15% tariff on Japanese imports, reports indicate that Tokyo and Washington are already at odds over how profits will be shared. Japan is seeking a structure tied to its sizable capital contribution, while U.S. negotiators insist on retaining as much as 90% of profits, citing regulatory, tax, and infrastructure advantages offered to foreign investors. The discord raises questions about whether this marquee deal can remain intact — or if it’s the first crack in what could become a patchwork of volatile trade relationships.
Trump’s comments come as the administration prepares to issue formal letters to over 200 nations, outlining revised tariff schedules that will reportedly range from 15% to 50% depending on the nature of each bilateral relationship. The President indicated that more punitive tariffs are likely for nations that have either resisted new trade talks or failed to reach favorable terms, singling out Canada as a continued source of frustration. He suggested a 35% tariff could be imposed on Canadian imports not protected under the USMCA agreement, reigniting tensions with one of America’s largest trading partners.
Elsewhere, new details emerged about recent U.S. deals with the Philippines and Indonesia. Both countries will see their exports to the U.S. hit with a 19% tariff, adding to the growing list of nations now operating under a Trump-era trade framework defined by high tariffs and deal-by-deal arrangements. Meanwhile, China remains in the mix, with Trump noting that the two sides now have the “confines of a deal” in place ahead of upcoming talks. Whether those talks produce meaningful outcomes or simply delay further escalation remains to be seen.
Taken together, this flurry of trade activity signals a significant reshaping of global commerce under Trump’s second term. With tariffs now functioning not only as economic tools but also as political levers, the landscape for investors is shifting rapidly. Industries tied to global supply chains — particularly those reliant on imports — could face tighter margins, delayed deliveries, and strategic realignment. On the flip side, the push for domestic manufacturing and reshoring may boost middle-market industrials, infrastructure firms, and logistics providers.
While the tone of Trump’s trade doctrine remains combative, the opportunities for agile investors are growing clearer. As countries jockey for favorable terms and multinationals rethink their sourcing strategies, small and mid-cap companies operating domestically could be among the biggest beneficiaries. Whether these deals hold or fall apart, one thing is certain: the age of blanket trade agreements is giving way to a more fragmented, transactional world economy — and that’s a game middle-market investors should be watching closely.
Key Points: – June home sales dropped 2.7% from May as mortgage rates remained near 7%. – Inventory rose nearly 16% year-over-year, yet prices hit a record $435,300. – High-end homes are driving sales growth while first-time buyers remain sidelined
The U.S. housing market continues to send mixed signals. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales for June fell 2.7% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 3.93 million units, surprising analysts who expected a much smaller decline. But despite softening demand, prices are still climbing — reaching a record-high median of $435,300.
For middle-market investors, this data presents both a challenge and a strategic opportunity.
Mortgage rates are the elephant in the room. At 6.77%, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hovered near cycle highs since spring, discouraging both first-time buyers and move-up homeowners from entering the market. The result? Stagnant sales volumes and longer time on market — now averaging 27 days versus 22 this time last year.
And yet, home prices continue to rise. June marked the 24th straight month of year-over-year price increases, driven by a long-standing shortage in housing supply and resilient demand at the high end of the market.
The supply situation has improved modestly, with 1.53 million homes on the market — up nearly 16% from a year ago — but remains well below the level needed for a balanced market. With a current supply of just 4.7 months, the market still leans in favor of sellers, particularly in premium segments.
Sales of homes over $1 million rose 14%, while those priced under $100,000 dropped 5%. Homes between $100,000 and $250,000 were up 5%, suggesting some traction in mid-tier affordability brackets, though far from historical norms. First-time buyers accounted for just 30% of sales, well below the typical 40% share, underscoring affordability pressures in a high-rate environment.
So, what does this mean for investors focused on small- and mid-cap real estate opportunities?
It may be time to double down on targeted real estate plays — not just in residential development, but also in rental housing, home improvement suppliers, and regional banks with exposure to housing markets. Companies servicing the higher end of the housing spectrum, or those innovating around affordability, are poised to benefit as buyers adjust expectations and capital flows to where inventory and demand align.
Furthermore, the rise in cash transactions (29% of sales) suggests that liquidity remains strong in certain market segments, and that investors are still finding value — despite rate headwinds.
In a market where fundamentals are diverging, middle market investors should be looking beyond national headlines and focusing on regional trends, builder sentiment, and small-cap housing companies with healthy balance sheets and smart positioning.
While rising prices may be discouraging to homebuyers, they’re a reminder that the housing shortage is far from solved — and the companies working to close that gap could deliver long-term upside.
Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Initiating Coverage of The Oncology Institute With An Outperform Rating. The Oncology Institute of Hope & Innovation (TOI) is a medical practice management company specializing in community-based oncology practices. It manages and operates oncology clinics in five states using its proprietary, value-based methodology. These treatment regimens have improved outcomes for patients while reducing the cost of care.
TOI Uses Capitated Contracts To Control Costs. TOI enters into contracts with third-party payers to treat a specified number of health plan members based on the estimated per-member, per-month cost. This method of providing coverage based on population size is known as capitation. It also offers traditional fee-for-service as well as value-based oncology care. This provides TOI with the flexibility to contract with more insurance plans.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Key Points: – Opendoor shares surge nearly 95% as retail traders rally behind turnaround potential. – Market buzz fueled by comparisons to Carvana’s 100x rebound. – Rebound renews optimism for small-cap proptech firms navigating post-crisis recovery.
Shares of Opendoor Technologies (Nasdaq: OPEN) have soared nearly 95% in Monday trading, extending a jaw-dropping run that saw the online home-buying platform triple in value last week. The catalyst? A mix of bullish small-cap speculation, retail investor momentum, and echoes of past high-profile recoveries.
The sudden surge began after EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson revealed his firm had taken a position in Opendoor, citing the potential for a “100-bagger” return — a term used to describe stocks with the potential to return 100 times the original investment. Jackson compared Opendoor’s situation to that of Carvana (CVNA), which went from the brink of collapse in 2023 to becoming one of the market’s biggest comeback stories.
Opendoor, once a darling of the real estate tech boom, had lost nearly 98% of its market cap since peaking at nearly $36 per share in early 2021. It had been teetering on the edge of delisting from the Nasdaq after trading below $1 for over 30 days this year. In a bid to remain listed, the company proposed a reverse stock split in June to artificially lift its share price — but that plan may now be unnecessary.
As of Monday, Opendoor shares had closed above $1 for four consecutive sessions, and were trading above $4 by midday — a potential lifeline to retain its Nasdaq listing and buy time for a true turnaround. This rally, although speculative in nature, brings fresh attention to the broader small-cap property technology (proptech) space.
The momentum gained steam in familiar territory: Reddit’s WallStreetBets community. Traders shared screenshots of their Opendoor positions and praised the stock’s volatility, pushing it deeper into meme stock status. While much of the price action has been driven by speculative enthusiasm, the fundamental hope lies in the company’s expected move into positive EBITDA territory in the coming earnings cycle — which could signal a shift from survival to sustainable growth.
For investors in the small and micro-cap space, Opendoor’s rebound offers a powerful reminder of the volatility — and opportunity — inherent in post-crisis tech sectors. As housing markets stabilize and interest rates gradually ease, companies that can operate leaner and show clear paths to profitability are regaining investor confidence.
This momentum has also put a spotlight on similar small-cap proptech and real estate platforms that are undervalued but show operational potential. While it’s unlikely most will see meme-like surges, Opendoor’s rally highlights a window of opportunity for middle-market investors to identify turnaround plays before institutions catch on.
Whether this rally marks a sustainable turnaround or a speculative detour, one thing is clear: the market is watching, and the appetite for underdog small caps is alive and well.
CALGARY, AB, July 16, 2025 /CNW/ – InPlay Oil Corp. (TSX: IPO) (OTCQX: IPOOF) (“InPlay” or the “Company“) announces that Obsidian Energy Ltd. (“Obsidian“) has provided the Company notice of a non-binding agreement between Obsidian and a third party in respect of the sale of all 9,139,784 common shares (“Common Shares“) in the capital of InPlay currently held by Obsidian (the “Third Party Offer“).
InPlay understands that the proposed price per Common Share under the Third Party Offer is in excess of the closing price of the Common Shares on the Toronto Stock Exchange as of July 15, 2025. The sale of any Common Shares by Obsidian to the third party remains subject to numerous terms and conditions, including, without limitation, execution of a definitive agreement and the approval of the Company pursuant to its investor rights agreement with Obsidian. While negotiations are continuing, there is no assurance that any binding agreement will be entered into in the future or that any transaction will be completed.
As a result of the Third Party Offer, Obsidian announced today that it will not launch its previously announced exchange offer to purchase up to approximately $10 million of its common shares for consideration consisting of Common Shares.
InPlay does not intend to issue any further public updates regarding this matter unless the situation warrants or as may be required by applicable securities laws or stock exchange rules.
SOURCE InPlay Oil Corp.
For further information please contact: Doug Bartole, President and Chief Executive Officer, InPlay Oil Corp., Telephone: (587) 955-0632; Kevin Leonard, Vice President, Business & Corporate Development, InPlay Oil Corp., Telephone: (587) 893-6804
President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday his intention to impose tariffs of up to 200% on imported pharmaceutical products, a move that could dramatically reshape the pharmaceutical landscape. While the tariffs would not go into effect immediately, the president indicated they could be implemented “very soon,” with a grace period of roughly a year to a year and a half for companies to adapt.
The proposed tariffs come as part of a broader economic strategy aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing and reducing U.S. reliance on foreign pharmaceutical production. Trump has long criticized the pharmaceutical industry for outsourcing production, and this latest proposal aligns with his “America First” trade agenda. The administration believes steep tariffs would incentivize companies to bring more manufacturing operations back to the United States.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the final details of the pharmaceutical tariffs will be revealed by the end of July, following the conclusion of studies on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors currently under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. This legal framework allows the administration to impose trade barriers on national security grounds—one of the same avenues used for previous tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Pharmaceutical companies and industry groups reacted swiftly to the announcement. Major firms, including Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, and AbbVie, have warned that such a move could lead to unintended consequences. Critics argue the tariffs would raise the cost of essential medicines, disrupt global supply chains, and potentially limit access to critical drugs for patients.
Industry leaders have also expressed concern that the new tariffs could stifle innovation by diverting funds away from research and development. The pharmaceutical sector is already under pressure from other regulatory changes related to drug pricing and reimbursement models. Adding steep tariffs into the mix, they argue, could further destabilize long-term investment in life-saving therapies.
Despite these concerns, Trump maintains that the threat of tariffs is a powerful lever to revive American manufacturing. While some large pharmaceutical companies have increased domestic investment in recent years, U.S.-based drug production still represents only a fraction of global output. Trump’s administration believes that tough economic measures are necessary to reverse decades of offshoring.
Notably, pharmaceutical stocks remained relatively stable in the immediate aftermath of the announcement, reflecting skepticism among investors about whether the tariffs will ultimately materialize or reach the proposed 200% threshold. Trump has previously floated similar trade measures that were later scaled back or delayed.
Still, the mere possibility of such tariffs signals a growing willingness to use aggressive trade policy in sectors traditionally considered too sensitive or complex for broad economic intervention. The coming weeks will likely bring more clarity as the administration finalizes its review and industry stakeholders prepare for what could be a major policy shift.
If enacted, these tariffs would mark one of the most consequential moves in U.S. healthcare trade policy in decades—potentially reshaping supply chains, pricing, and the geopolitical landscape of pharmaceutical production.
Just 24 hours after data showed job openings surging to their highest level since November 2024, the American labor market delivered a jarring reality check. Private sector employment unexpectedly contracted by 33,000 positions in June, according to ADP’s Wednesday report—marking the first monthly decline since March 2023 and painting a starkly different picture of employment dynamics.
The contradiction between Tuesday’s robust job openings data (7.76 million available positions) and Wednesday’s payroll contraction illustrates the complexity of today’s labor market, where demand for workers remains strong but actual hiring has stalled dramatically.
ADP’s report revealed a troubling disconnect between employer intentions and actions. While May data showed companies posting abundant job openings, June hiring patterns suggest businesses are increasingly reluctant to pull the trigger on new hires. The 33,000 job loss significantly missed economist expectations for 100,000 new positions, representing a stunning 133,000-job swing from forecasts.
“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” explained Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist. This phenomenon—where companies maintain job postings but delay actual hiring decisions—reflects growing business uncertainty about economic conditions.
The May revision further underscored this trend, with private payroll gains reduced to just 29,000 from an initially reported 37,000, highlighting how even modest job growth has been weaker than initially perceived.
Service Sector Bears the Brunt
The June contraction was concentrated in service industries, with professional and business services shedding 56,000 positions and health and education losing 52,000 jobs. Financial services added to the decline with 14,000 fewer positions. These sectors, which typically drive white-collar employment growth, appear to be exercising extreme caution in their hiring strategies.
However, goods-producing industries provided some offset, adding 32,000 positions across manufacturing and mining operations. This divergence suggests that while consumer-facing and office-based businesses are pulling back, industrial sectors continue to see steady demand.
Geographically, the Midwest and West experienced the steepest declines, losing 24,000 and 20,000 jobs respectively, while the South managed modest growth of 13,000 positions. The Northeast saw minimal contraction of 3,000 roles.
The data revealed a striking pattern based on company size. Large employers with over 500 employees actually expanded payrolls by 30,000 positions, suggesting that well-capitalized companies continue to invest in talent acquisition. Conversely, small businesses with fewer than 20 employees accounted for 29,000 lost positions, indicating that smaller enterprises are bearing the brunt of economic uncertainty.
This divergence reflects different risk tolerances and financial capabilities, with smaller businesses typically more sensitive to economic headwinds and policy uncertainties.
Wage Growth Momentum Fades
Adding to concerns, annual wage growth decelerated for both job stayers and job switchers. Workers remaining in their positions saw pay increases of 4.4%, down from 4.5% in May, while those changing jobs experienced wage growth of 6.8%, declining from 7.0%. This moderation in wage pressures could provide some relief for inflation-conscious Federal Reserve officials but signals weakening worker bargaining power.
The stark contradiction between job openings and actual hiring creates a challenging environment for Federal Reserve policymakers already under pressure from the Trump administration to cut interest rates. While Tuesday’s job opening surge suggested labor market strength, Wednesday’s payroll contraction reinforces concerns about economic momentum.
Financial markets will closely watch Thursday’s official Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report, which economists expect to show 110,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment rising to 4.3%. If the government data confirms ADP’s weak showing, it could significantly strengthen the case for monetary easing.
The divergent signals—strong job demand but weak hiring execution—suggest an economy in transition, where businesses remain optimistic enough to post openings but cautious enough to delay actual hiring decisions. This hesitancy may reflect concerns about tariff impacts, regulatory changes, or broader economic uncertainty.
For investors and policymakers alike, the labor market’s mixed messages underscore the importance of looking beyond headline numbers to understand the underlying dynamics driving employment trends in an increasingly complex economic environment.
AbbVie has announced a definitive agreement to acquire Capstan Therapeutics, a clinical-stage biotechnology company pioneering targeted in vivo cell engineering, in a deal valued at up to $2.1 billion. The acquisition includes Capstan’s lead asset, CPTX2309—an investigational therapy targeting B cell-mediated autoimmune diseases—as well as the company’s proprietary targeted lipid nanoparticle (tLNP) platform for RNA delivery.
This strategic move signals AbbVie’s growing commitment to reshaping the treatment landscape for autoimmune diseases. While AbbVie has long been a major player in immunology with blockbuster therapies like Humira and Rinvoq, the addition of Capstan’s in vivo CAR-T capabilities positions the company at the frontier of a new therapeutic modality.
CPTX2309 is an mRNA-based therapy that delivers an anti-CD19 chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) directly into CD8-expressing cytotoxic T cells via Capstan’s tLNP system. Unlike traditional ex vivo CAR-T therapies, which require harvesting and engineering a patient’s cells outside the body before reinfusion, CPTX2309 enables this transformation to happen in vivo. This significantly simplifies the treatment process by eliminating the need for lymphodepletion or complex manufacturing steps—making it potentially more scalable and accessible.
Targeting CD19, a well-validated marker expressed on B cells, CPTX2309 aims to deplete the autoreactive B cells responsible for driving autoimmune diseases such as lupus or multiple sclerosis. The goal is to eliminate the pathogenic immune cells and repopulate the system with naïve, healthy B cells—effectively resetting the immune system and halting disease progression.
AbbVie is not only acquiring a promising clinical candidate but also a platform technology with broad applications. Capstan’s proprietary CellSeeker™ tLNP platform can be adapted to deliver a variety of RNA payloads to specific cell types in vivo, opening possibilities far beyond autoimmune conditions. This could have future implications for oncology, infectious diseases, and more.
As part of the agreement, AbbVie will make a cash payment of up to $2.1 billion at closing, subject to customary regulatory and legal conditions, including the expiration of the waiting period under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act.
This acquisition adds to AbbVie’s expanding immunology pipeline and enhances its positioning in next-generation therapeutic development. By integrating Capstan’s cutting-edge technology, AbbVie aims to develop new approaches that go beyond treating symptoms and instead target the root causes of autoimmune disorders.
The transaction is expected to close later this year. Capstan was advised by Centerview Partners LLC as financial advisor and Cooley LLP as legal counsel. AbbVie did not disclose its legal or advisory team.
This deal reflects a growing industry trend of major pharmaceutical companies investing heavily in advanced RNA delivery platforms and in vivo cell therapies—technologies seen as essential to the next wave of personalized medicine. With this acquisition, AbbVie reaffirms its commitment to driving innovation that transforms the standard of care for patients worldwide.
Semiconductor stocks stumbled Friday after reports surfaced that the U.S. government is considering revoking waivers that currently allow major global chipmakers to use American technology in their Chinese operations.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Commerce Department official Jeffrey Kessler informed executives from Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) earlier this week that the Biden administration is reviewing whether to terminate these exemptions. The waivers had enabled companies to export U.S. chipmaking tools and software to facilities in China, despite existing export controls.
The news triggered a wave of selling across the semiconductor sector. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) dropped around 1%, while individual stocks including Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Marvell Technology fell roughly 1%. TSMC shares declined more than 2% as investors reacted to the potential disruption to its China-based operations.
The Commerce Department’s move signals a possible escalation in the ongoing tech tensions between Washington and Beijing. Although the two nations recently agreed on the framework of a second trade deal during meetings in London, the Biden administration has continued to tighten restrictions on advanced chip technology exports, citing national security concerns.
“These waivers were a key lifeline for chipmakers operating in China,” said Adam Kinley, an analyst at EastWest Securities. “If revoked, companies like TSMC and Samsung could face operational hurdles, reallocation costs, and potentially a sharp drop in revenue tied to China-based production.”
The semiconductor industry has already been navigating growing restrictions. In 2022 and 2023, the U.S. introduced sweeping controls limiting China’s access to advanced AI chips and tools required for high-end semiconductor fabrication. The latest efforts to close loopholes reflect Washington’s concern that Beijing could exploit foreign chip factories operating inside China to circumvent those controls.
The impact of these export curbs is already being felt. Nvidia, a leading AI chipmaker, disclosed last month that U.S. government restrictions on its China-bound H20 chips contributed to an estimated $8 billion hit in sales. CEO Jensen Huang described the China market—once worth $50 billion to U.S. chip companies—as “effectively closed.”
The potential rollback of waivers could further strain U.S.-China trade relations, particularly as China has denounced these restrictions as discriminatory. While the current policy discussions are ongoing and no final decision has been made, the possibility of more sweeping limits has introduced fresh volatility into the sector.
Investors and chipmakers alike will be watching closely for any formal announcements in the coming weeks. A reversal of the waivers would force affected companies to reevaluate supply chains, consider shifting manufacturing operations out of China, and potentially delay production schedules.
In the near term, analysts expect heightened market sensitivity to any government signals or diplomatic developments related to U.S.-China tech policy. As Washington balances national security priorities with global economic interests, the semiconductor industry finds itself once again at the center of geopolitical risk.
