Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, December 5, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – A New Dimension to Angel Island
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.20025 | Price Target: $2.3)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
A New Dimension to Angel Island
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Recovery of rare earth elements (REE). Century recovered rare earth elements from leach solutions generated from its Angel Island Lithium Project. Initial testing indicated that high rare earth element recoveries may be achieved without impacting lithium recovery. Producing a secondary REE-rich product from the leach solution offers the potential to enhance Angel Island’s project economics, while fulfilling broader government and industry objectives of promoting a North American critical mineral supply chain to reduce dependence on China.
The process works. Leach solutions produced from Angel Island claystone contain dysprosium, gadolinium, neodymium, and praseodymium, along with higher concentrations of scandium, lanthanum, and cerium. Ion-exchange achieved greater than 97% recovery of the identified REEs and critical metals, without affecting the company’s core lithium recovery process and production of high-purity lithium carbonate.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, November 28, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – The Value of a Diversified Portfolio
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.1 | Price Target: $0.3)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
The Value of a Diversified Portfolio
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Advancing parallel projects. In addition to its exploration project in Ecuador, the company is advancing two projects in France, a gold exploration project in Brittany, and a nickel recovery project in Corsica. In October, Aurania announced a third project near Turin, Italy, where it is evaluating the recovery of nickel and cobalt from the waste tailings of the former Balangero asbestos mine. The projects in Corsica and Italy offer significant environmental benefits for the nearby communities, along with the economic benefit of recovering valuable critical metals.
Private placement financing. On November 20, Aurania announced a non-brokered private placement financing of up to 12,500,000 units at a price of C$0.12 per unit to raise gross proceeds of up to C$1,500,000. Each unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. A warrant will entitle the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.25 per warrant for a period of 24 months following the closing of the offering.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, November 26, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
GDEV (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – Efficient Capital Use Drives Improved 2025 Outlook
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Third Quarter Results In Line with Expectations
GDEV (GDEV/$20.65 | Price Target: $70)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Efficient Capital Use Drives Improved 2025 Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Q3 results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $97.6 million and adj. EBITDA of $26.7 million. While revenue was slightly below our estimate of $100.0 million, adj. EBITDA strongly outperformed our estimate of $7.2 million. Notably, the strong adj. EBITDA figure was largely driven by more efficient use of marketing spend, which decreased by 43% from the year earlier comparable period.
Key operating metrics. Bookings and monthly paying users (MPU) decreased by 4% and 16%, respectively, compared with the prior year period, but the decrease was expected as the company is focused on the quality of gameplay and retaining high-quality users. Furthermore, the company’s strategy is showing early signs of success, as average bookings per paying user (ABPPU) increased from $92 in Q3’24 to $107 in Q3’25.
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Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.4 | Price Target: $2.45)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Third Quarter Results In Line with Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Third quarter financial results. Hemisphere reported revenue of C$23.1 million in Q3, down from C$26.7 million in the prior-year period, but slightly above our estimate of C$21.6 million, due to better-than-expected pricing. Net income totaled C$6.9 million, or C$0.07 per share, compared to C$8.6 million, or C$0.09 per share, last year, and in line with our forecast of C$6.9 million, or C$0.07 per share. Average daily production of 3,571 boe/d (99% heavy oil) declined 1% year-over-year due to summer workover downtime, but wasn’t far off from our estimate of 3,606 boe/d. Adjusted funds flow (AFF) from operations was C$10.1 million, or C$0.10 per share, roughly in line with our estimate of C$10.0 million, or C$0.10 per share.
Updating estimates. Reflecting slightly better than expected Q3 results but modestly lower 2025 production guidance of 3,600–3,700 boe/d, we are adjusting our full-year forecasts. We now expect 2025 revenue of C$92.7 million, compared to our prior estimate of C$93.7 million. Our operating cost assumption increased modestly to C$38.1 million from C$37.9 million. We now project 2025 net income of C$26.5 million, or C$0.27 per share, versus our previous forecast of C$27.4 million, or C$0.27 per share. AFF is projected at C$40.0 million, up from our earlier estimate of C$41.0 million. For 2026, we are holding our forecast steady with revenue of C$93.7 million, net income of C$27.7 million, or C$0.29 per share, and AFF of C$39.7 million
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, November 25, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – A Strong Treasury and Visible Progress
Codere Online (CDRO)/OUTPERFORM – Looking Past The Noise
Comstock (LODE)/OUTPERFORM – Comstock Metals Advances Toward 2026 Commissioning
SEGG Media Corporation (SEGG)/OUTPERFORM – Waiting For Revenues To Ramp
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – New Awards Momentum Continues
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.2 | Price Target: $2.3)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
A Strong Treasury and Visible Progress
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Progress on multiple fronts. Century Lithium’s 100%-owned Angel Island Lithium Project hosts one of the largest known sediment-hosted lithium resources in the United States. Century is advancing an integrated end-to-end solution to convert lithium-bearing claystone into battery-grade lithium carbonate. Century has completed and submitted all baseline and environmental studies to the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) in advance of Angel Island’s Plan of Operations and is working on an update to the 2024 Feasibility Study. Submission of the Plan of Operations will begin the federal permitting process under the National Environmental Policy Act.
Demonstration plant. The company has relocated its Demonstration Plant from Amargosa Valley, Nevada, to its 20-acre facility at the Tonopah Airport, where it will continue research, development, and material handling. The relocation is intended to consolidate operations, improve logistical efficiency, and lower costs.
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Codere Online (CDRO/$6.86 | Price Target: $14)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Looking Past The Noise
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of €51.6 million, essentially flat with the prior year period and below our estimate of €56.0 million. Adj. EBITDA of €2.9 million was modestly better than our estimate of €2.6 million. Notably, when excluding the impact of the Mexican Peso devaluation in Q3, revenue was up roughly 3% over the prior year period.
Solid fundamentals. Notably, while the company benefited from an 11% increase in monthly active customers, it was largely offset by a 10% decrease in monthly average spend, primarily attributed to the Mexican Peso devaluation. Moreover, the company recorded 85,000 first-time deposit customers in Q3, a 26% y-o-y. Importantly, the company’s cost per acquisition was €167, which is its lowest since Q1 2023.
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Comstock (LODE/$3.27 | Price Target: $6.75)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Comstock Metals Advances Toward 2026 Commissioning
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Final Permitting Pathway for Industrial-Scale Facility. Comstock Metals received eligibility for its Air Quality Permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP), completing the major regulatory requirements needed to commission its 100,000-ton-per-year solar panel recycling facility in Silver Springs, Nevada. The approval keeps commissioning on track for the first quarter of 2026, with equipment deliveries expected before year-end. The facility is designed to process more than three million end-of-life panels annually using Comstock’s certified zero-landfill system that recovers aluminum, glass, silver, and other metals. We expect the facility to begin ramping up operations during the second quarter of 2026.
A Leading U.S. Solar Recycling Platform. This marks the first industrial solar recycling air permit issued in Nevada and reinforces Comstock’s leading position to accommodate a growing national waste stream. With most legacy U.S. solar panels deployed across Nevada, California, and Arizona, the Silver Springs, Nevada hub positions Comstock to serve more than half of the domestic decommissioning market. The Comstock Metals team is evaluating additional processing and storage locations to support broader expansion as panel retirements accelerate.
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SEGG Media Corporation (SEGG/$1.42 | Price Target: $15.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Waiting For Revenues To Ramp
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Modest Q3 results. SEGG’s reported modest revenues and an operating loss for its Q3. The financial performance underscores the early-stage nature of the business and reflects the limited current monetization across its portfolio. We did not anticipate that the Q3 financial results were going to be meaningful. More importantly, are the steps that the company is taking to make acquisitions and build its businesses.
All-Sports facility pushed out. The company’s venture to launch its All-Sports Arena in Boca Raton appears to be stalled as it negotiates a broader lease arrangement with the landlord, seeking as much as 140,000 square feet instead of the original 100,000 square feet. This broader arrangement should allow a better customer experience, given the ability to add more experiential components, such as Formula I simulators.
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V2X (VVX/$52.86 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
New Awards Momentum Continues
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Awards. With the Federal government once again open, contract awards are once again being announced by the Department of War. VVX’s award momentum continues, providing the Company with a solid base of business going into 2026, in our view.
Iraq F-16. On November 20th, subsidiary Vectrus Systems LLC. was awarded a $252.1 million cost-plus fixed-fee indefinite contract action for base support services in support of the Iraq F-16 program. Recall, this is one of the major $1 billion-plus contracts V2X has recently won. This contract provides for base operating support, base life support, and security services at the Martyr BG Ali Flaih Air Base in Iraq, and is expected to be complete by September 24, 2026.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, November 24, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – BTM Announces CEO Transition and Expanded Management Team
Kuya Silver (KUYAF)/OUTPERFORM – Laying the Foundation for Growth
Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – A Promising 2026 Emerges
Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$1.49 | Price Target: $6)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
BTM Announces CEO Transition and Expanded Management Team
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Leadership transition effective January 1, 2026. The company appointed Scott Buchanan as Chief Executive Officer, while founder Brandon Mintz will step out of the CEO role and assume the newly formalized title of Executive Chairman. Mintz, already serving as Chairman of the Board, will shift his focus more explicitly toward long-term strategy, M&A evaluation, and broader growth initiatives.
Buchanan a logical choice to lead as CEO. Mr. Buchanan has held a series of senior roles since 2019, including CFO, COO, acting CFO, President, and board member. In our view, he has already been a central driver of execution, financial discipline, and operational scaling within the organization, making him a natural fit to formalize leadership as CEO.
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Kuya Silver (KUYAF/$0.32 | Price Target: $1.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Laying the Foundation for Growth
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Third quarter operational and financial results. During the third quarter, Kuya Silver processed 1,841 tonnes at a toll milling facility, resulting in the sale of 16,983 ounces of silver. The company generated revenue of $771,084 from Bethania concentrate sales, compared to no revenue in the prior-year quarter. Production costs totaled $1,165,790 as the company continued to develop multiple mining faces while executing infrastructure upgrades. The company generated a net loss of $1,523,898, or $(0.01) per share compared to a loss of $1,550,267, or $(0.01) per share during the third quarter of 2024. We had projected a loss of $1,241,457, or $(0.01) per share.
On track to achieve consistent production of 100 tonnes per day. In early November, Kuya achieved a single-day mining record of approximately 102.5 tonnes of mineralized material from the underground mine and is currently running at a consistent average throughput of approximately 90 tonnes per day. Recent underground development on the 640 level of the Espanola vein system advanced, with sufficient working faces completed to support output above 100 tonnes per day.
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Xcel Brands (XELB/$0.8289 | Price Target: $7)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
A Promising 2026 Emerges
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Loss narrows from year earlier. The company reported Q3 revenue of $1.1 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $0.7 million. The adj. EBITDA loss was lower than the $1.0 million loss a year earlier reflecting the company’s structural cost reductions. The revenue and adj. EBITDA were modestly lower than our estimates of $1.6 million and a loss of $0.2 million, respectively. Notably, sales for C. Wonder and Christie Brinkley’s TWRHLL were disrupted by tariff-related vendor issues and HSN’s studio transition during Q3, which have since been resolved.
Q4 largely on track. In spite of the HSN disruptions, we believe that Q4 revenue appears on target with expectations, although we are tweaking up expenses slightly to compensate for the prospect of some added transition costs. As such, we are tweaking our adj. EBITDA loss estimate modestly from $100,000 to $450,000.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, November 20, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Positioned For Growth In 2026
Xcel Brands (XELB/$0.8 | Price Target: $7)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Positioned For Growth In 2026
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $1.1 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $0.7 million, both of which were modestly lower than our estimates of $1.6 million and a loss of $0.2 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q3 Results. Notably, sales for C. Wonder and Christie Brinkley’s TWRHLL were disrupted by tariff-related vendor issues and HSN’s studio transition during Q3, which have since been resolved.
Strategic partnerships. The company’s new influencer brands, with Jenny Martinez, Gemma Stafford, Cesar Millan, and Coco Rocha, are expected to launch in Q1 2026. Notably, these celebrity partnerships drove the increase in the company’s social media following from 5 million at the start of the year to its current following of 46 million. In our view, the company is well positioned to reach its goal of 100 million social media followers in 2026.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, November 19, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Staying Nimble in a Dynamic Market Environment
Euroseas (ESEA/$55.76 | Price Target: $74)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Staying Nimble in a Dynamic Market Environment
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Third quarter financial results. Total net revenues for the third quartertotaled $56.9 million, a 5.1% increase year-over-year, but modestly lower than our estimate of $59.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA and EPS were $38.8 million and $4.23, respectively, below our estimates of $41.7 million and $4.40. The lower-than-expected results were due primarily to a greater number of scheduled off-hire days and expenses associated with a special survey and drydock completed on one vessel during the quarter. Total operating expenses amounted to $24.4 million compared to $23.5 million during the prior year period and our $23.1 million estimate. Drydocking expenses were $2.7 million compared to our estimate of $0.6 million.
Revenue and earnings visibility into 2026. With 100% of Q4 2025 operating days secured at an average rate of ~$30,345 per day and 74.7% of 2026 days already covered at higher average rates of ~$31,300 per day, Euroseas has locked in substantial revenue visibility. This robust charter coverage not only underpins earnings but also provides a strong buffer against rate volatility, positioning the company to benefit from sustained high utilization into 2026.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, November 18, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Codere Online (CDRO)/OUTPERFORM – Outlook Improves For Q4, But Caution Signs For 2026
E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Is This A Winning Strategy?
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – Unlocking Value Through Campus Activation
Twin Hospitality (TWNP)/OUTPERFORM – Acquiring 8 Top Performing Franchised Twin Peaks Locations
Codere Online (CDRO/$5.69 | Price Target: $14)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Outlook Improves For Q4, But Caution Signs For 2026
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $51.6 million, essentially flat with the prior year period and below our estimate of $56.0 million. Adj. EBITDA of $2.9 million was modestly better than our estimate of $2.6 million, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q3 Results. Notably, when excluding the impact of the Mexican Peso devaluation in Q3, revenue was up roughly 5% over the prior year period.
Solid fundamentals. Notably, while the company benefited from an 11% increase in monthly active customers, it was largely offset by a 10% decrease in monthly average spend, primarily attributed to the Mexican Peso devaluation. Moreover, the company recorded 85,000 first time deposit customers in Q3, a 26% y-o-y. Importantly, the company’s cost per acquisition was €137, which is its lowest since Q1 2023.
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E.W. Scripps (SSP/$3.06 | Price Target: $10)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Is This A Winning Strategy?
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Sinclair’s surprising move. We believe that negotiations to merge with Sinclair broke down, but Sinclair decided to take another tack. It announced that it took a 8.2% stake in the company in a bold attempt to make public its intent and possibly to dissuade another potential suitor. The move is surprising given that E.W. Scripps is controlled by the Scripps Family Trust, which has voting control of the company (93%) and the Scripps family trust cannot simply vote its shares entirely independently of the family agreement.
What was the sticking point? We believe that the Scripps family recognizes the limitations that the company has with its current leveraged balance sheet and limited acquisition targets. In our view, the Scripps family has turned down overtures in the past because of the unwillingness to give up either control or a significant voice at the table. We believe that the point of contention is the Smith family’s 80% super majority voting rights of the Sinclair Broadcast Group and what the Scripps family will control following a potential merger.
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Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$8.97 | Price Target: $23)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Unlocking Value Through Campus Activation
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 results. Sky Harbour reported Q3 revenue of $7.3 million versus our estimate of $9.3 million, and an adj. EBITDA loss of $2.3 million compared with our projected gain of $0.2 million. Management highlighted that the company is within roughly $1 million of run-rate breakeven, and we expect this threshold to be reached before year end as recently delivered campuses gain tenants.
Lease-up progress and long-term pipeline visibility. Management reaffirmed its goal of reaching 23 long-term ground leases by year end, up from 19 currently. Pre-leasing at Bradley (BDL) and Dulles (IAD) prior to construction demonstrates tenant demand at target rent levels and adds visibility to the 2026 revenue ramp.
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Twin Hospitality (TWNP/$3.59 | Price Target: $10)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Acquiring 8 Top Performing Franchised Twin Peaks Locations
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Acquisition. Twin Hospitality has entered into a letter of intent to acquire eight Twin Peaks franchised restaurants in Florida from DMD Ventures, LLC for approximately $47 million in cash. We view this strategic transaction as an opportunistic investment in a key growth market, even as the Company’s long-term focus remains on franchise driven expansion.
Details. The acquisition will bring the following Florida locations to Company ownership: Davie, Fort Myers, West Palm Beach, Pembroke Pines, Hollywood, Cypress Creek, Doral and Naples. Upon completion, the transaction is expected to contribute approximately $76-$77 million in annual revenue and $9-$10 million in additional annual EBITDA, representing an EV/Sales multiple of 0.6x and an EV/EBITDA multiple of approximately 5x, a discount to TWNP’s current trading multiples.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, November 17, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – First Look at 3Q25
Newsmax (NMAX)/OUTPERFORM – Putting In A Good Foundation
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Mid-Quarter Business Update
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – Another Favorable Quarter
Bit Digital (BTBT/$2.41 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
First Look at 3Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. The third quarter was Bit Digital’s first full period as a focused Ethereum treasury and staking company. During the quarter the Company continued to expand its ETH position, at quarter end holding approximately 122,000 ETH. By the end of October, that number had risen to more than 153,000 ETH, a fivefold increase since June.
3Q25 Results. Revenue for the quarter was $30.5 million, up from $22.7 million in 3Q24. We were at $31.5 million. Significantly, staking revenue grew to about $2.9 million, up from $400,000 in the prior quarter, driven by the increase in ETH holdings and a higher real life yield price. Due to a $168 million gain on digital asset valuation, BTBT reported $150.9 million, or $0.47/sh, of net income. We had forecasted a breakeven quarter, not including mark-to-market gains.
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Newsmax (NMAX/$7.93 | Price Target: $22)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Putting In A Good Foundation
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $45.3 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $1.8 million, both of which were in line with our estimates of $43.8 million and a loss of $1.7 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q3 Results. Notably, Q3 results benefited from a 10.1% increase in broadcasting revenue and a 22.3% increase in affiliate fee revenue, a development we view favorably, given that 2024 was an election year.
Affiliate fee growth. In our view, the company is well positioned to continue growing affiliate fee revenue as audience traction and ratings continue to improve, enhancing the network’s leverage in negotiations. Moreover, we believe the company’s growing reach supports higher per-sub rates during renewal cycles. As such, we believe affiliate fee growth strengthens its long-term outlook.
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NN (NNBR/$1.45 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Mid-Quarter Business Update
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Update. NN provided a mid-quarter business update. NN continues to see the benefits from its multi-year transformation efforts, which are delivering record adjusted EBITDA, record new sales wins, positive free cash flow, and setting a firm foundation for continued results. Notably, fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA and adjusted gross margins are expected to hit at least 14% and 20%, results which are more than two years ahead of plan.
New Business. Full-year 2025 new business wins are expected to meet the Company’s original guidance. NN remains on track to achieve its three-year new business wins target of $200 million, a Company record. The new business launches are expected to support solid year-over-year net sales growth, margin expansion, operating income advancement, and continued adjusted EBITDA growth. NN now has its biggest ever sales growth team and opportunity pipeline of more than 800 new programs, worth more than $800 million in annual value.
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QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.133 | Price Target: $0.23)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Another Favorable Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $5.2 million, a 10% increase over the prior year period, and a 5% increase sequentially. Additionally, revenue was modestly better than our $5.0 million estimate, while adj. EBITDA of $0.4 million was slightly lower than our estimate of $0.6 million. Importantly, the favorable revenue growth was largely driven by an increased spend from existing customers.
Capitalizing less development costs. Notably, the company capitalized less development costs in Q3 than in the prior year, resulting in increased development expenses in the quarter. While we anticipate the company will recognize development costs at a similar rate going forward, we believe that margins should improve as the company begins to recognize revenue from the new business “wins” in future quarters.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, November 14, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT)/OUTPERFORM – Favorable Momentum Into Fiscal Second Quarter
Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Solid Q3 Execution Amid Rising Regulatory Headwinds
EuroDry (EDRY)/MARKET PERFORM – Momentum Building into Q4 and 2026
GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – 3Q25 Reported With Clinical Trial Updates and Plans To Move Products Forward
GoHealth (GOCO)/OUTPERFORM – Reset in Progress as Carriers Recalibrate
Newsmax (NMAX)/OUTPERFORM – Executing On Its Growth Strategy
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Third Quarter Results Exceed Expectations; Increasing Estimates
The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI)/OUTPERFORM – Guidance Raised After 3Q25 Revenues Beat Expectations
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT/$6.66 | Price Target: $11)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Favorable Momentum Into Fiscal Second Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overachieved fiscal first quarter. Total revenues increased a solid 10.9% to $253.9 million, better than our $244.0 million estimate, bolstered by a 59% increase in movie sales. In addition, adj. EBITDA of $12.2 million, up roughly 260% y-o-y, was better than our $9.5 million estimate, reflecting a 330 basis point improvement in margins. Figure #1 Q3 Results highlights our estimates and the recent results.
Strong movie sales likely to continue. Movie sales revenues increased 59% to $84.0 million, well above our $74.9 million estimate, a reflection of a recent licensing agreement with Paramount Pictures, and, to a smaller extent by strong Steelbook sales. The Paramount Pictures licensing revenue lift is likely to bolster total company revenues for the next few quarters.
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Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$2.07 | Price Target: $6)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Solid Q3 Execution Amid Rising Regulatory Headwinds
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 results exceed expectations. Bitcoin Depot reported Q3 revenue of $162.5 million and adj. EBITDA of $16.1 million, both above our estimates of $146.5 million and $11.0 million, respectively. Results reflected strong kiosk expansion, higher transaction volumes, and improved margins.
Expansion momentum builds. Bitcoin Depot continues to advance its growth strategy through expanded retail partnerships and international initiatives. The company has deployed more than 260 kiosks in Australia over the past year and recently commenced operations in Hong Kong, strengthening its global footprint. These achievements, alongside the acquisition of National Bitcoin ATM, have further solidified its position as North America’s largest Bitcoin ATM operator.
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EuroDry (EDRY/$13.23)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Momentum Building into Q4 and 2026
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Third quarter financial results. EuroDry reported third quarter 2025 revenues of $15.3 million, in line with expectations of $15.1 million and down slightly from $15.8 million last year due to a smaller fleet. Adjusted EBITDA improved sharply to $4.1 million, up from $0.5 million in Q3 2024, due to lower expenses and stronger utilization. The company operated an average of 12 vessels at a TCE of $13,232/day, modestly above $13,105/day in the prior-year period. Adjusted net loss narrowed to $0.6 million, or $(0.23)/share, compared to a loss of $3.9 million, or $(1.42)/share, last year.
Market outlook. Management indicated that dry-bulk fundamentals continued to strengthen through Q3, supported by improving Chinese import activity, firmer demand across key cargo segments, and increased ton-mile requirements. Limited fleet growth and a historically low orderbook continue to support a tightening supply backdrop as the market moves into 2026. We expect Q4 results to capture more of the recent improvement as earlier charters roll off, though geopolitical uncertainty remains a risk to global trade flows.
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GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$0.5 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
3Q25 Reported With Clinical Trial Updates and Plans To Move Products Forward
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Plans For MVA Vaccine and Gedeptin Trial Expectations Confirmed. GeoVax reported a 3Q25 loss of $6.3 million or $(0.31) per share, a smaller loss than the $8.0 million loss we had projected. The company reviewed several developments related to the Geo-MVA vaccine for smallpox/Mpox, Gedeptin, and CM04S1. Discussions for possible marketing collaborations continue. The cash balance on September 30, 2025 was $5.0 million.
Moving Forward With Geo-MVA. As discussed in our Research Note on June 17, the Geo-MVA vaccine for smallpox/Mpox is moving forward toward a Phase 3 trial. This follows receipt of Scientific Advice EMA (European Medicines Agency) stating that a marketing approval application can be submitted after a single, Phase 3 immuno-bridging study against the approved MVA vaccine. Phase 1 and Phase 2 would not be required. This saves several years and many millions dollars, allowing the company to sell the vaccine sooner.
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GoHealth (GOCO/$2.61 | Price Target: $10)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Reset in Progress as Carriers Recalibrate
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 results below expectations. GoHealth reported Q3 revenue of $34.2 million versus our estimate of $100.0 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $47.1 million, compared with our projected loss of $11.6 million. The variance reflected an intentional pullback in Medicare Advantage policy volume as management prioritized persistency and unit economics over near-term growth.
Health plans facing headwinds. Carriers are contending with lower reimbursement under the new CMS V28 risk model and heightened difficulty maintaining high STAR ratings. These dynamics have shifted industry priorities toward member retention, stability, and margin integrity rather than volume growth, reducing pre-funded marketing and broker commissions across the sector.
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Newsmax (NMAX/$8.52 | Price Target: $23)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Executing On Its Growth Strategy
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $45.3 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $1.8 million, both of which were in line with our estimates of $43.8 million and a loss of $1.7 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q3 Results. Notably, Q3 results benefited from a 10.1% increase in broadcasting revenue and a 22.3% increase in affiliate fee revenue, a development we view favorably, given that 2024 was an election year.
Expanded distribution. Notably, the company expanded its reach in the hospitality industry, adding more than 900 hotels and over 300,000 rooms. Additionally, its partnership with Curb extended programming across 15,000 taxi screens, with over 2.3 billion annual impressions. Furthermore, the company continues to gain traction internationally through licensing deals in the Balkans and the rollout of Newsmax en Español. In our view, the company is well positioned to continue expanding distribution both domestically and internationally.
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Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$9.23 | Price Target: $12)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Third Quarter Results Exceed Expectations; Increasing Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Third quarter results. Seanergy generated third quarter net revenue of $47.0 million compared to $44.4 million during the prior year period and above our $45.1 million estimate. Relative to the third quarter of 2024, revenue growth was driven by an expanded fleet, an increase in operating days, and higher fleet utilization. Third quarter time charter equivalent (TCE) rates and fees from related parties were above our estimates. Operating expenses were in line with expectations, resulting in adjusted EBITDA of $26.6 million and EPS of $0.67, respectively, both ahead of our $25.0 million and $0.50 estimates, respectively.
Market outlook. During the investor call, management highlighted favorable Capesize market supply and demand fundamentals that are expected to support charter rates, including increasing Atlantic-based trade, a historically low order book, and limited shipyard availability. With a 20-vessel fleet consisting purely of Capesize and Newcastlemax vessels and a conservative capital structure, Seanergy is well positioned to benefit from strong Capesize market fundamentals.
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The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI/$3.08 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Guidance Raised After 3Q25 Revenues Beat Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM
3Q25 Was A Strong Quarter. The Oncology Institute reported a loss of $16.5 million or $(0.14) per share, with revenues from Patient Services and Dispensary both ahead of our estimates. Adjusted EBITDA turned positive for the first time at the end of the quarter. Management raised guidance for Full-Year Revenues, and confirmed the ranges for Adjusted EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow. On September 30, the company had $27.7 million in cash.
Total Revenues Beat Our Estimates. Total Revenue of $136.6 million easily beat our estimate of $122.5 million. This was an increase from $119.8 million in 2Q25 (up 14%) and $99.9 million (up 37%) in 4Q24. Adjusted EBITDA of $(3.5) million was also better than the $(3.8) million we had estimated. COGS included a new reserve of $8.1 million for bad debts, lowering gross margin from 19.8% to 13.9% compared with the 15.2% we estimated.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, November 13, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Start To The Year
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Execution Drives Strong Volumes; Upside Builds for 2026
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – Site Acquisitions on Track
SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Global Expansion on the Horizon
Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Looking Past The Noise
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – FDA Filing Date for OLC Confirmed With 3Q25 Reporting
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Vertex Aerospace Offloads Some More Shares
Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT/$6.64 | Price Target: $11)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Strong Start To The Year
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overachieves fiscal first quarter. Total revenues increased a solid 10.9% to $253.9 million, better than our $244.0 million estimate, bolstered by a 59% increase in movie sales. In addition, adj. EBITDA of $12.2 million, up roughly 260% y-o-y, was better than our $9.5 million estimate, reflecting a 330 basis point improvement in margins. Figure #1 Q3 Results highlights our estimates and the recent results.
Strong movie sales likely to continue. Movie sales revenues increased 59% to $84.0 million, well above our $74.9 million estimate, a reflection of a recent licensing agreement with Paramount Pictures, and, to a smaller extent, strong Steelbook sales. The Paramount Pictures licensing revenue lift is likely to bolster total company revenues for the next few quarters.
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InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$9.45 | Price Target: $15.75)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Execution Drives Strong Volumes; Upside Builds for 2026
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Third-quarter 2025 results. InPlay reported third-quarter results, with production averaging 18,970 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), up 7% from Q2 and 131% higher than Q3 2024. This was above our forecast of 18,695 boe/d, due to continued outperformance of wells drilled in the first quarter of 2025 and low decline base production. Revenue totaled C$79.3 million, below our forecast of C$86.8 million due to lower natural gas pricing. Adjusted funds flow (AFF) came in at C$26.8 million, or C$0.96 per share, modestly below our C$28.0 million, or $1.00 per share estimate, mainly due to the variance in revenue.
Market outlook. We think 2026 will offer a more favorable environment for InPlay. It will mark the first full year of results post-Pembina acquisition, unlocking the benefits of greater scale, infrastructure control, and an expanded drilling inventory. While near-term pricing remains soft, we expect stronger demand, slower supply growth, and potential for tighter oil and gas markets to support improved realizations and higher netbacks through 2026. With enhanced gas processing capacity and capital flexibility, InPlay remains well-positioned to capitalize on an improving macro backdrop.
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Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$9.85 | Price Target: $23)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Site Acquisitions on Track
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 below estimates. Sky Harbour reported Q3 revenue of $7.3 million (+78% Y/Y) trailing our estimate of $9.3 million. An adj. EBITDA loss of $2.3 million was below our forecast of a $0.2 million gain, illustrated in Figure #1 Q3 Results. Management noted that the company is within $1 million of a cash break-even run-rate and expects to achieve positive operating cash flow before year-end.
Site acquisition on target. Sky Harbour now holds 19 airport ground leases (nine operating, ten in development) and remains on pace to reach 23 by year-end. The company announced a site acquisition at Long Beach Airport, while pre-leasing at Dulles and Bradley supports pricing power and visibility into 2026.
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SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.62 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Global Expansion on the Horizon
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 on target. SKYX reported Q3 revenue of $23.9 million versus our estimate of $23.5 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $2.3 million versus our forecasted loss of $2.1 million. Revenue rose 4% over Q2, while gross margin improved to 32% from 30% in Q2, reflecting an increased mix of higher-margin proprietary products.
B2B pipeline building. SKYX’s new partnership with Global Ventures Group expands its footprint into the Middle East, including projects in Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Alongside Landmark Companies, Forte Developments, Cavco Homes, and the Miami Smart City, these relationships reinforce multi-year B2B growth potential as deployments scale through 2026 and beyond.
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Snail (SNAL/$1.03 | Price Target: $3)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Looking Past The Noise
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $13.8 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $9.6 million, both of which were lower than our estimates of $22.0 million and a loss of $2.0 million, respectively. The weaker than expected results were largely attributed to moderately higher than expected operating expenses and a $10.9 million increase in deferred revenue, which currently has a balance of $36.4 million. Notably, while revenue and adj. EBITDA were softer than anticipated, bookings increased a solid 9.3%, y-o-y, to $17.6 million.
Favorable release roadmap. The company has a busy release roadmap in Q4 and 2026. Notably, in Q4, the company plans to release the ARK: Survival Ascended (ASA) Lost Colony DLC, which is expected to unlock $5.8 million in deferred revenue. Looking ahead to 2026, the release roadmap includes Honeycomb, Bellwright on PlayStation and Xbox, and two DLCs for ASA, Genesis Part 1 and Part 2, which are tied to $10.3 million in deferred revenue.
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Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$5.14 | Price Target: $60)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
FDA Filing Date for OLC Confirmed With 3Q25 Reporting
Rating: OUTPERFORM
3Q25 Reported With OLC Update. Unicycive reported a 3Q25 loss of $6.0 million or $(0.33) per share, below our expectations of $(8.4) million. Importantly, the company confirmed previous plans to resubmit its NDA for OLC (oxylanthanum citrate) by the end of the year, implying a new PDUFA date during 1H26. Cash at the end of the quarter was $42.7 million.
OLC Resubmission Planned Before Year-End. Unicycive previously announced that it held a meeting with the FDA to discuss the issue with a third-party manufacturer cited as a deficiency in the Complete Response Letter (CRL) received in June 2025. After the FDA meeting and an inspection of the third-party manufacturer by EU regulators, the company plans to resubmit the NDA. Assuming a PDUFA (Prescription Drug User Fee Act) review time of 6 months, an answer could be received during 1H26.
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V2X (VVX/$55.5 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Vertex Aerospace Offloads Some More Shares
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Another Sale. Yesterday, V2X announced the sale of 2.25 million shares of its common stock on an underwritten basis by Vertex Aerospace Holdco LLC. V2X is not selling any shares of common stock in the offering, and V2X will not receive any proceeds from the offering by Vertex Aerospace. The offering is expected to close on or about November 13, 2025, subject to customary closing conditions. The sale is another in a series as Vertex Aerospace continues to liquidate its V2X holding acquired in the merger between Vectrus and Vertex.
V2X To Participate. Under its existing share repurchase authorization, V2X has agreed to purchase 363,638 shares of common stock that are subject to the offering at a price per share of common stock equal to the price to be paid to Vertex Aerospace by the underwriter. V2X intends to fund the repurchase of its common stock with cash on hand. At the current price, the 363,638 shares would cost approximately $20 million.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, November 12, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – Improved Execution in an Uncertain Environment
Conduent (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – 2026 Pipeline Growing Despite Q3 Headwinds
The Beachbody Company (BODI)/OUTPERFORM – Table Is Set For A Promising 2026; Raising Price Target
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$1.5 | Price Target: $4)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Improved Execution in an Uncertain Environment
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. CVG’s operating environment remains challenged with lower demand in the key Construction, Agriculture, and Class 8 truck end markets. Nonetheless, in 3Q25, the Company saw continued sequential expansion in adjusted gross margin in the quarter. The Company is making progress with customers in regards to mitigating tariff impacts.
3Q25 Results. Revenues of $152.5 million were down 11.2%, primarily due to softening in North American demand. We were at $158 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $4.6 million, up 7.0%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 3.0%, up from 2.5% a year ago. CVG reported a net loss from continuing operations of $6.8 million, or $(0.20)/sh and adjusted net loss of $4.6 million, or $(0.14)/sh, compared to net loss from continuing operations of $0.9 million, or $(0.03)/sh, and adjusted net loss of $0.4 million, or $(0.01)/sh.
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Conduent (CNDT/$1.84 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
2026 Pipeline Growing Despite Q3 Headwinds
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 hits headwind. Conduent reported Q3 revenue of $767 million and adj. EBITDA of $40 million, modestly below our estimates of $794 million and $44 million. While sales in the Commercial segment lagged, Transportation delivered strong revenue growth (+15% Y/Y) and Government margins expanded to 25.6%. Totally company adj. EBITDA margins improved 110 bps year-over-year, underscoring steady operational progress.
Pipeline growing. Overall new business activity was solid with the qualified ACV pipeline rising 9% Y/Y to $3.4 billion, led by Government and Transportation momentum. While the Commercial segment struggled to close sales, we believe a streamlined go-to-market model and early software-licensing traction should support 2026 revenue stabilization.
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The Beachbody Company (BODI/$5.92 | Price Target: $15)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Table Is Set For A Promising 2026; Raising Price Target
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $59.9 million and adj. EBITDA of $9.5 million, both of which surpassed our estimates of $54.0 million and $2.6 million, respectively. Additionally, the strong results surpassed the high end of company issued guidance, of $51.0 million to $58.0 million in revenue and $2.0 million to $6.0 million in adj. EBITDA. Furthermore, the company hit an important milestone, recording net income for the first time since 2021.
Improved operating structure. Over the past several years, the company has significantly lowered its break-even point from $900 million in 2022 to $180 million in 2025, largely through SG&A optimization and the elimination of Multi Layer sales costs. The new model offers enhanced operating leverage, enabling profitability at lower revenue levels and providing a favorable outlook ahead of several new product releases.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, November 11, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – 3Q25 Reported With Product Pipeline Updates
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Third Quarter Results Exceed Expectations
Graham (GHM)/MARKET PERFORM – A Solid 2Q26
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Making Progress on Multiple Fronts
The Beachbody Company (BODI)/OUTPERFORM – Turnaround Ahead of Schedule
Townsquare Media (TSQ)/OUTPERFORM – Fundamental Traction Is Elusive, But It Pays A Compelling Dividend
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$11.76 | Price Target: $45)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
3Q25 Reported With Product Pipeline Updates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Cadrenal Made A Significant Acquisition In 3Q25. Cadrenal reported a loss of $2.7 million or $(1.31) per share, less than the loss of $3.1 million we estimated. The company also provided an update on clinical progress for tecarfarin and the products acquired through the recent acquisition of eXithera Therapeutics. At the end of the quarter on September 30, the company had cash on hand of $3.9 million.
Tecarfarin Is Making Clinical Progress. During the quarter, the company continued to support the Phase 2 trial in LVAD (left ventricular assist devices) as part of its collaboration with Abbott. Separately, it also continued its consultations with Clinical Investigators to design a Phase 2 trial in dialysis patients previously treated with warfarin. The manufacture of tecarfarin supplies for clinical trials that comply with the FDA’s Good Manufacturing Practices (cGMP) was also completed.
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FreightCar America (RAIL/$9.48 | Price Target: $17)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Third Quarter Results Exceed Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Third quarter results. RAIL generated third-quarter adj. net income of $7.8 million, or $0.24 per share, compared to $7.3 million, or $0.08 per share, during the prior year period. We had forecast net income of $5.6 million, or $0.16 per share. Rail car deliveries were 1,304 units compared to 961 units during the prior year period. Third-quarter gross margin increased to 15.1% compared to 14.3% during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA increased 56.1% to $17.0 million, representing a margin of 10.6%, compared to $10.9 million and a margin of 9.6% in the third quarter of 2024.
Updated corporate guidance. While management still expects 2025 rail car deliveries in the range of 4,500 to 4,900 and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $43 million to $49 million, revenue expectations were lowered to a range of $500 million to $530 million from $530 million to $595 million. Revised revenue expectations reflect changes in the product mix due to a greater number of conversion rail cars versus new rail cars in the second half.
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Graham (GHM/$62)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Solid 2Q26
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Overview. Graham put up solid results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026. The Company executed well across all the business lines, driving broad based-growth. Demand across the end markets remains healthy, and the Defense and Space markets continue to see robust activity.
2Q26 Results. Revenue grew 23% to $66 million, driven by solid performance across all end markets. We were at $59 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $6.3 million, up 12% from the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 9.5%. We had forecasted $6.2 million and 10.4%. Net income for the quarter was $0.28 per diluted share, and adjusted net income was $0.31 per diluted share. We were at $0.30 and $0.32, respectively.
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Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.635135 | Price Target: $1.2)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Making Progress on Multiple Fronts
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Craigmont drilling program. Nicola Mining (OTCQB: HUSIF, TSX.V: NIM) recently completed its New Craigmont exploration program with six holes drilled, representing 3,000 to 4,000 meters of drilling. Three holes were drilled in the MARB-CAS zone targeting porphyry mineralization. Three holes were drilled in the Draken zone, a newly identified porphyry copper target with no surface outcropping. The Draken Zone demonstrates porphyry style mineralization consistent with the Highland Valley Copper system. Results of the 2025 program and 2026 plans are expected to be announced together once assays are received.
Blue Lagoon commences first shipments. Blue Lagoon Resources Inc. (OTCQB: BLAGF, CSE: BLLG) has commenced shipping mineralized material from its first batch of production at the Dome Mountain Gold Mine to Nicola Mining’s Merritt Mill. Upon accumulation of the first 1,000 tonnes, Dome Mountain material will be processed and produced into a concentrate for shipment to Ocean Partners, a provider of trading services for miners, refiners, and smelters. While initial material being trucked to Nicola is not expected to represent higher-grade mineralized material, volumes and grades are expected to improve over time.
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The Beachbody Company (BODI/$5.02 | Price Target: $12)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Turnaround Ahead of Schedule
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $59.9 million and adj. EBITDA of $9.5 million, both of which surpassed our estimates of $54.0 million and $2.6 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q3 Results. Additionally, the strong results surpassed the high end of company issued guidance, of $51.0 million to $58.0 million in revenue and $2.0 million to $6.0 million in adj. EBITDA. Furthermore, the company hit an important milestone, recording net income for the first time since going public.
Improved operating structure. Over the past several years, the company has significantly lowered its break-even point from $900 million in 2022 to $180 million in 2025, largely through SG&A optimization and the elimination of Multi Layer sales costs. The new model offers enhanced operating leverage, enabling profitability at lower revenue levels and providing a favorable outlook ahead of several new product releases.
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Townsquare Media (TSQ/$5.42 | Price Target: $15)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Fundamental Traction Is Elusive, But It Pays A Compelling Dividend
Rating: OUTPERFORM
In line quarter. Third quarter results were in line with our revenue and adj. EBITDA estimates, but came in at the bottom of the company’s Q3 guide. Total company revenues of $106.8 million were a modest 0.6% below our $107.5 million estimate. Adj. EBITDA was $22.0 million, largely in line with our $22.5 million estimate.
Its digital businesses sputter. Digital was the uncharacteristically lackluster, with revenues $58.9 million, somewhat lighter than our $59.8 million estimate, a 1.8% decrease from the comparable year earlier quarter. Our forecast anticipated a more modest 0.2% decline in total digital revenue. The company experienced revenue weakness in both its Townsquare Interactive (down 2.3%) and Digital Advertising (down 1.5%) businesses.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, November 10, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – Monthly Ethereum Metrics
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Attractive Risk/Reward Opportunity
E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Standing Tall Among Its Peers
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – BESTOW Trial Leads To Misunderstanding of Tegoprubart Data
FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – Third Quarter Results
Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE)/OUTPERFORM – Gyre Reports 3Q25 With Several Clinical Trial Updates
Kelly Services (KELYA)/OUTPERFORM – A Miss, But Some Positives
MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – Implementing the Expand the Brand Strategy
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – Third Quarter Results
Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – Influx Of Cash Likely To Fuel Stock Repurchases
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Solid Performance; Attractive Entry Point
Titan International (TWI)/OUTPERFORM – Some Green Shoots, Reports 3Q25
Twin Hospitality (TWNP)/OUTPERFORM – Strategy Being Implemented
Bit Digital (BTBT/$3.14 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Monthly Ethereum Metrics
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Data. Bit Digital reported its monthly Ethereum (“ETH”) treasury and staking metrics for the month of October 2025. As of October 31, 2025, the Company held approximately 153,547 ETH, versus 121,187 ETH at the end of September. Included in the ETH holdings were approximately 15,139 ETH and ETH-equivalents held in an externally managed fund, and approximately 5,132 ETH presented on an as-converted basis from LsETH using the Coinbase conversion rate as of 10/31/25. The Company’s total staked ETH was approximately 132,480 as of October 31st.
Yield and Value. Staking operations generated approximately 249 ETH in rewards during October, representing an annualized yield of approximately 2.93%. Based on a closing ETH price of $3,845.79, as of October 31, 2025, the market value of the Company’s ETH holdings was approximately $590.5 million.
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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$16.95 | Price Target: $28)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Attractive Risk/Reward Opportunity
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. With four new contracts during the quarter, CoreCivic made substantial progress in contracting to use a significant portion of its idle facility capacity in the quarter. The four new contracts effective in the third quarter are expected to generate approximately $320 million of annual revenue once the facilities achieve stabilized occupancy. Notably, CoreCivic’s detention populations and revenues have been unaffected by the government shutdown.
3Q25 Results. Revenue of $580.4 million rose 18.1% y-o-y, driven by increased populations. We were at $550 million. CoreCivic recorded adjusted EBITDA of $88.8 million, up 6.6% y-o-y, but slightly below our $91.8 million estimate. Adjusted EPS was $0.24, up 26.3% y-o-y and in-line with our $0.27 estimate. Normalized FFO was $0.48, up 11.6% y-o-y and in-line with our $0.48 estimate.
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E.W. Scripps (SSP/$2.56 | Price Target: $10)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Standing Tall Among Its Peers
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 Core outperforms peers. Core advertising increased 2%, outperforming its peers, which on average declined 2% in the quarter. In addition, the company overachieved adj. EBITDA on better than expected expense savings on employee costs across both operating segments.
Q4 core outlook outperforms peers as well. Management guided core advertising to increase 10% in Q4, significantly better than its peers, with most guiding flat to down as much as 5%. The biggest disappointment is in its Scripps Networks division, with Q4 revenues guided down low double-digits, impacted by the absence of Political and Medicare enrollment advertising due to the government shutdown.
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Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$2.06 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
BESTOW Trial Leads To Misunderstanding of Tegoprubart Data
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Phase 2 BESTOW Trial Data Reported. On Thursday evening, November 6, the results of the Phase 2 BESTOW trial in kidney transplant patients were presented. The trial did not meet its primary endpoint of tegoprubart superiority to the control arm but showed improvements in several important endpoints. We believe tegoprubart performed well and that the sharp decline in stock price is unwarranted.
Design Of The Phase 2 BESTOW Trial. The trial enrolled 126 patients into and randomized them into two arms. The first received tegoprubart and the second received tacrolimus, the standard of care, as a control arm. The primary endpoint was a difference in eGFR, a measure of kidney filtration and function. Additional endpoints reported were for the iBOX composite and measures of adverse events.
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FAT Brands (FAT/$1.45 | Price Target: $10)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Third Quarter Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. While the restaurant industry continues to face headwinds, FAT Brands did see some positives from the operating side. Most encouraging is the momentum in same-store sales performance. The Company narrowed the SSS decline to just 3.5%, down from 4.2% in the second quarter, representing the strongest quarterly performance so far this year.
3Q25 Financials. Quarterly revenue totaled $140 million, a 2.3% decrease from $143.4 million in last year’s quarter. The decline was driven primarily by the closure of 11 underperforming Smokey Bones locations as planned. Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million, compared to $14.1 million a year ago. The Company reported a GAAP net loss of $58.2 million versus a net loss of $44.8 million a year ago. Adjusted net loss was $45.4 million, or $2.67/sh, compared to adjusted net loss of $38.0 million, or $2.34/sh, in 3Q24.
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Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE/$7.21 | Price Target: $20)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Gyre Reports 3Q25 With Several Clinical Trial Updates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Quarter Sales Were Driven By Etuary. Gyre reported Net Income of $5.9 million or $0.04 per basic share. Revenue of $30.6 million showed year-over-year growth of 20.0%. This was driven by strength in Etuary with sales of $27.7 million. Sales of Etorel and Contiva sales were of $1.5 million and $1.2 million respectively. At the end of 3Q25 on September 30, the company had $80.3 in cash, equivalents, and securities.
The Company Made Progress In Several Important Clinical Programs. During 3Q, Gyre continued working to submit its NDA for Hydronidone approval in China. The Phase 3 trial testing Etuary in pneumonoconiosis completed enrollment, while a Phase 2/3 trial for pulmonary complications in oncology (radiation induced lung injury/pneumonitis) is planned to begin in 4Q25. The IND for a Phase 2 trial in MASH in the US is now expected to be filed in early 2026, within the timeframe we had expected.
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Kelly Services (KELYA/$9.63 | Price Target: $17)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Miss, But Some Positives
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. Kelly reported 3Q25 results below expectations, even after scrubbing away a number of one-time events. Lower demand from the federal government and a few large customers negatively impacted results. Nonetheless, Kelly continued to capture growth in certain markets.
3Q25 Results. 3Q25 revenue fell 9.9% to $935 million from $1.04 billion last year. Consensus was $973 million, and we were at $975 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $16.5 million, or a 1.9% margin, compared to $26.2 million, or a 2,5% margin, in 3Q24. Consensus was $33 million, and we were at $33.5 million. Adjusted EPS was $0.18 vs $0.21 last year. Consensus was $0.42, we were at $0.45.
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MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.102 | Price Target: $0.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Implementing the Expand the Brand Strategy
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Brand Strength. To illustrate the strength of MariMed’s brands, during the quarter in Illinois, the Company experienced a 23% sequential sales increase despite sales being down statewide 1.5%, according to Hoodie. In Massachusetts, MariMed sales increased 5% sequentially, compared to a 2% decline in the state, again according to Hoodie.
Wholesale. In terms of Wholesale, MariMed has achieved 75% penetration across all of its markets, excluding Missouri, leaving significant white space for future growth. The next step is to increase the breadth of relationship with customers, garnering additional shelf space for MariMed product.
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ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$1.88 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Third Quarter Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. Third quarter results were below expectations as operations were impacted by factors that temporarily reduced traffic in certain markets. Rising commodity costs outpaced pricing adjustments, impacting margins. The Benihana integration continues to exceed management expectations, and the new Benihana prototype is delivering strong results.
3Q25 Results. Revenue was $180.2 million, down from $194 million in 3Q24 and our $193.5 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $10.6 million, down from $14.9 million in 3Q24 and below our $17.6 million estimate. ONE Group reported a GAAP loss of $85.3 million, or a loss of $2.75/sh, versus a loss of $16.4 million, or $0.53/sh last year.
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Saga Communications (SGA/$12.38 | Price Target: $18)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Influx Of Cash Likely To Fuel Stock Repurchases
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 Results. Third quarter revenue of $28.2 million was in line with our $28.3 million estimate, representing a modest 1.8% decline against a Political advertising infused prior year period. Adj. EBITDA, excluding an extraordinary music licensing settlement expense, was $3.3 million, in line with our $3.4 million estimate.
Q3 revenues stabilize. Excluding Political advertising, the strength in Digital advertising more than offset the weakness in its core broadcast advertising. Digital advertising was up roughly 40% in the quarter. Digital advertising continues to have strong momentum into the fourth quarter, pacing up 32%.
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The GEO Group (GEO/$15.13 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Solid Performance; Attractive Entry Point
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. GEO Group reported 3Q25 results at or above expectations, excluding one-time impacts. Nonetheless, the shares sold off on concerns about the pace of detentions and uncertain additional facility activations. Notably, since the beginning of the year, GEO has entered into new or expanded contracts that represent over $460 million in new incremental annualized revenues that are already under contract and are expected to normalize in 2026. This represents the largest amount of new business the Company has won in a single year in its history.
3Q25 Results. Revenue of $682.3 million rose 13.1% y-o-y. We were at $650 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $120.1 million, or a 17.6% margin compared to $118.6 million, or a 19.7% margin. GAAP EPS was impacted by a $232.4 million gain from the sale of Lawton and a $37.7 million non-cash charge in connection with litigation. Adjusted EPS was $0.25 versus $0.21 last year and our $0.22 estimate.
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Titan International (TWI/$7.82 | Price Target: $11)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some Green Shoots, Reports 3Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. Titan reported 3Q25 results at the high end of expectations. The Ag and EMC segments each reported revenue growth compared with the prior year period, along with expanded gross margins. The Consumer segment saw improved gross margins despite marginally lower revenues due to tariffs continuing to have some dampening effect on new equipment demand. Notably, Titan continued to generate gross and EBITDA margins meaningfully above where they were during the last cyclical trough.
3Q25 Results. Net sales for 3Q25 were $466.5 million, compared to $448.0 million in the comparable period of 2024. The increase was primarily driven by pricing related to passing on increases in input costs. We were at $455 million. Gross margin improved to 15.2% from 13.1%. We were at 15.2%. Adjusted EBITDA was $29.8 million in 3Q25, compared to $20.5 million in 3Q24, and our $28.5 million estimate. Adjusted EPS was $0.04 versus a loss of $0.19/sh last year and our projected $0.04/sh loss.
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Twin Hospitality (TWNP/$3.47 | Price Target: $10)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Strategy Being Implemented
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. In the third quarter, Twin Peaks delivered a solid performance, expanding restaurant-level contribution margin to 17.0%. Sales within core markets also grew year-over-year despite regional headwinds. The conversions of certain Smokey Bones locations continues, with converted locations performing well.
3Q25 Results. Revenue decreased 1.6% y-o-y to $82.3 million, reflecting the loss of revenue from closed Smokey Bones locations as well as a decline in SSS. Twin Peaks System-wide sales declined 1.4%, with SSS off 4.1%. Adjusted EBITDA of $3 million in 3Q25 improved modestly from $2.3 million in 3Q24. Twin Hospitality reported a loss of $24.5 million compared to a net loss of $16.2 million last year.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, November 7, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – Building A Path Toward Profitability
E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Facing A Difficult Q4
Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – Clinical and Regulatory Milestones Are On or Ahead Of Expectations
Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – Business Stabilizes In Q3
SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Brief Pharmacy Disruption, Trajectory Intact
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.3148)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Building A Path Toward Profitability
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $8.0 million, below our forecast of $14.5 million, partially driven by continued underperformance in the Sell-side business, which generated $0.6 million vs. our forecast of $5.0 million. Furthermore, while the company has been focusing on cost reductions, it has not been enough to offset the softness in the Sell-side. As such, adj. EBITDA loss of $3.0 million came in lower than our estimate of a loss of $0.1 million.
Buy-side grew. Notably, Buy-side revenue grew 7% YoY to $7.3 million, driven by expansion into larger performance-based clients. Notably, the company announced a new Reach TV partnership, which adds premium airport video inventory and aligns with the company’s tourism-focused customer base. The Buy-side is the primary profit driver and likely will be for the next several quarters.
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E.W. Scripps (SSP/$2.05 | Price Target: $10)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Facing A Difficult Q4
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 exceeds expectations. Adj. EBITDA of $80.4 million was better than our $71.5 million estimate, on revenues of $525.9 million, a little shy of our $528.5 million estimate. Employee compensation expenses were lower than our expectations, which accounted for the largest variance in our Q3 estimates, leading to the better than expected adj. EBITDA. Figure #1 Q3 Results highlights our estimates versus the results.
Q4 guidance reflects a difficult quarter. Management anticipates Local Media revenue to be down in the 30% range, with Local Media expenses to be down in the low single-digit percent range. Scripps Networks revenue is expected to be down in the low double-digit percent range, with expenses to be down in the low double-digit percent range. Shared services and corporate will be about $21 million.
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Ocugen (OCGN/$1.38 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Clinical and Regulatory Milestones Are On or Ahead Of Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Ocugen Reports 3Q25 With Milestones For FY2026. Ocugen reported a 3Q25 loss of $20.1 million or $(0.07) per share and gave updates on its clinical programs. Importantly, all three clinical trials are meeting or beating our expectations for progress toward the BLA filings. We continue to expect “3 filings in 3 years”, with the first approval in mid-2027.
OCU400 Expected To Start Rolling BLA Filing In 1H26. OCU400 received RMAT designation from the FDA, allowing portions of the BLA to be submitted as they are completed rather than waiting to submit the entire BLA at once. The non-clinical portions are planned for submission in early 2026, with clinical trial data submitted in 4Q26. This should start the FDA review earlier and allow for approval in mid-2027.
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Saga Communications (SGA/$12.11 | Price Target: $18)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Business Stabilizes In Q3
Rating: OUTPERFORM
In-line quarter. Third quarter revenue of $28.2 million was in line with our $28.3 million estimate, representing a modest 1.8% decline against a Political advertising infused prior year period. Adj. EBITDA, excluding an extraordinary music licensing settlement expense, was $3.3 million, in line with our $3.4 million estimate as illustrated in Figure #1 Q3 Results.
Q3 revenues stabilize. Excluding Political advertising, the strength in Digital advertising more than offset the weakness in its core broadcast advertising. Digital advertising was up roughly 40% in the quarter. Management stated that Digital advertising continues with strong momentum into the fourth quarter, pacing a strong 32%.
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SelectQuote (SLQT/$1.68 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Brief Pharmacy Disruption, Trajectory Intact
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Mixed Fiscal Q1 results. SelectQuote reported Q1 revenue of $328.8 million, above our estimate of $310.0 million. Adj. EBITDA loss of $32.1 million was slightly wider than expected due to temporary pharmacy reimbursement headwinds. Overall, results showed resilient topline growth despite short-term margin pressure, reflecting solid execution across Healthcare Services and Senior segments in a seasonally lighter quarter.
Healthcare Services headwind. Lower reimbursement rates from one pharmacy benefit manager impacted both revenue and margins in Healthcare Services in the quarter. The reimbursement adjustment, tied to the PBM’s calendar-year 2025 pricing update, will continue through fiscal Q2, when management expects segment adj. EBITDA to reach breakeven before normalizing in the second half.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, November 6, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – First Look at Third Quarter 2025
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Solid Results and an Acquisition
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – Hitting The Mark
MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – First Look at Third Quarter 2025
The ODP Corporation (ODP)/MARKET PERFORM – Reports 3Q Results
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$18.64 | Price Target: $28)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
First Look at Third Quarter 2025
Rating: OUTPERFORM
3Q25 Results. Revenue of $580.1 million was up 18.1% y-o-y and exceeded our $550.6 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $88.8 million, up 6.6% y-o-y and just below our $91.7 million estimate. Net income totaled $26.3 million, or $0.24/sh, compared to $21.1 million, or $0.19/sh, last year. We were at $0.27/sh. CoreCivic is benefiting from ongoing demand for its services across its government partners, but particularly ICE.
ICE. ICE revenue increased 54.6% y-o-y to $215.9 million. With law enforcement as an essential government service, the extended government shutdown is not impacting detention populations or revenues. CoreCivic began receiving ICE populations at the newly reopened California City and West Tennessee facilities late in the third quarter, with stabilized occupancy expected during 1Q26.
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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$77.41 | Price Target: $95)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Solid Results and an Acquisition
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. Kratos’ third quarter financial results are representative of the increasing demand for Kratos’ military grade hardware, systems, and software to support U.S. National Security and its allies. The number of opportunities Kratos has continues to grow. The Company currently has record levels of backlog and opportunity pipeline.
3Q25 Results. Third quarter 2025 revenues increased $71.7 million to $347.6 million from $275.9 million in the year ago period, reflecting 23.7% organic growth. This was above the high end of the $315-$325 million guidance. We were at $323 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $30.8 million, just above the high end of guidance. We were
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Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$7.98 | Price Target: $17.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Hitting The Mark
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q1 results. The company reported revenue of $292.3 million, up 12.3% from the prior year period and 2.2% above our estimate of $286.0 million. Notably, the strong revenue growth was largely driven by new location openings and acquisitions of water parks and family entertainment centers (FEC). Same store sales were flat compared to the prior year. Adj. EBITDA of $72.7 million was in line with our estimate of $72.5 million, despite the higher revenue, primarily due to increases in location operating costs and payroll and benefit costs, in part from recent acquisitions.
Improved revenue outlook. While the events business declined 11% y-o-y, management noted that trends have begun to improve, with October marking the strongest month for events year-to-date. Additionally, the company’s retail and league revenue, remained resilient, posting modest growth of 1.4% and 2.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the company should benefit in Q4 from its recent acquisitions of water parks and FECs.
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MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.11 | Price Target: $0.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
First Look at Third Quarter 2025
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Overview. During the third quarter, MariMed continued to make progress on becoming a top-selling, national consumer cannabis brand. The Company had another strong quarter of wholesale sales, which is a core component of the ‘Expand the Brand’ growth strategy. Management improved profitability through disciplined cost management and operational efficiencies during the quarter.
3Q25 Results. Revenue came in at $40.8 million, up from $40.6 million in the year ago period, but below our $43 million estimate. MariMed delivered sequential growth in both wholesale and retail revenues in 3Q25. Adjusted gross margin was 41% versus 43% in 3Q24. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $5.1 million, or 13% margin, compared to $4.7 million and 12% in 3Q24. We were at $6 million. MariMed reported an adjusted net loss of $1.5 million in 3Q25 versus adjusted net income of $0.5 million in 3Q24.
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The ODP Corporation (ODP/$27.89)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Reports 3Q Results
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
3Q25 Results. In likely the last quarterly report before being acquired, ODP released 3Q25 results in-line with our projections. Revenue of $1.625 billion was down 9% y-o-y. We were at $1.675 billion. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $62 million, flat y-o-y, and compared to our $66 million estimate. Net income was $23 million, or $0.72/sh, in-line with our $23 million estimate. Adjusted net income $36 million, or $1.14/sh, compared to $24 million, or $0.71/sh, in 3Q24.
Business Solutions. Segment sales of $862 million were down 6% y-o-y due to the soft economy. However, revenue trends improved 200 basis points y-o-y, driven by success in onboarding new customers, including 600 new hotel properties, targeted sales initiatives, and incremental growth in the hospitality sector. The Company is making progress on potential new agreements with several leading hospitality management companies. Segment OpInc. totaled $14 million versus $28 million in 3Q24.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, November 5, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – A Solid Third Quarter
Kuya Silver (KUYAF)/OUTPERFORM – An Emerging Growth Story with Strong Leverage to Silver
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – Water Parks Make A Wave In The Latest Quarter
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Record Revenue and Adjusted EPS Highlight Third Quarter
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$12.77 | Price Target: $14)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Solid Third Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM
3Q25 Results. Revenue was $195.2 million, up $4 million y-o-y, although slightly below our $200 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $39.3 million, or a 20.1% margin, up from $27 million in 3Q24, and above our $30.5 million estimate. Great Lakes reported EPS of $0.26, up from $0.13 in 3Q24 and our $0.16 projection. Results were driven by high equipment utilization and strong project execution.
Backlog. During the third quarter, Great Lakes was awarded new projects totaling $136 million, for a quarterly book-to-bill of 0.7x. Dredging backlog stood at $934.5 million as of the end of the third quarter, with an additional $193.5 million in low bids and options pending award, providing revenue visibility for the remainder of 2025 and well into 2026. Offshore Energy backlog was $73 million at quarter’s end.
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Kuya Silver (KUYAF/$0.28 | Price Target: $1.4)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
An Emerging Growth Story with Strong Leverage to Silver
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating coverage with a per share price target of US$1.40 or C$2.00. Kuya Silver Corporation (CSE: KUYA; OTCQB: KUYAF) is an emerging silver producer focused on precious metals assets in mining-friendly jurisdictions. The company’s flagship Bethania Silver Project in central Peru anchors a portfolio that also includes the Silver Kings Project in Ontario and a joint venture interest in the Umm Hadid silver-gold project in Saudi Arabia.
Bethania flagship project. After successfully restarting operations in 2024 through toll milling, Kuya has demonstrated steady operational improvements, highlighted by record concentrate sales and recoveries exceeding 91% in the third quarter of 2025. Mining has advanced into multiple production stopes, while key infrastructure upgrades have reduced downtime and increased reliability. Development of a new 3.5-by-3.5-meter haulage ramp will enhance mine access and material handling, positioning the operation to achieve 100 tonnes per day (tpd) by year-end 2025 and 350 tpd by the third quarter of 2026.
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Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$8.07 | Price Target: $17.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Water Parks Make A Wave In The Latest Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q1 results. The company reported revenue of $292.3 million, up 12.3% from the prior year period and 2.2% above our estimate of $286.0 million, as illustrated in Figure # 1 Q1 Results. Notably, the strong revenue growth was largely driven by new location openings and acquisitions of water parks and family entertainment centers (FEC). Same store sales were flat compared to the prior year. Adj. EBITDA of $72.7 million was in line with our estimate of $72.5 million, despite the higher revenue, primarily due to increases in location operating costs and payroll and benefit costs, in part from recent acquisitions.
Improved revenue outlook. While the events business declined 11% y-o-y, management noted that trends have begun to improve, with October marking the strongest month for events year-to-date. Additionally, the company’s retail and league revenue, remained resilient, posting modest growth of 1.4% and 2.1%, respectively. Furthermore, the company should benefit in Q4 from its recent water park and FEC acquisitions.
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V2X (VVX/$57.11 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Record Revenue and Adjusted EPS Highlight Third Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Operating Environment. V2X’s third quarter results demonstrated the Company’s continued focus on operational and strategic execution. Business trends remain positive and are being driven by continued demand for mission readiness solutions, even in the face of the government shutdown.
3Q25 Results. Revenue grew 8% year-over-year in the third quarter to a record $1.17 billion, driven by continued demand for V2X solutions. V2X delivered adjusted EBITDA of $85.2 million, with a margin of 7.3% in 3Q25. Net income for the quarter was $24.6 million, an increase of $9.6 million, or 63%, from the prior year. Adjusted net income was $43.7 million, an increase of $2.4 million, or 6%, year-over-year. Third quarter GAAP diluted EPS was $0.77. Adjusted diluted EPS for the quarter was $1.37, an increase of 6% year-over-year. We had projected $1.15 billion, $79 million, $0.45, and $1.23, respectively.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, November 4, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE)/OUTPERFORM – Reaching a Turning Point; Upgrading to Outperform
Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – AI Powered Momentum
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – A Transition At The Top
Superior Group of Companies (SGC)/OUTPERFORM – The Quarter Highlights Attractive Profit Growth Potential
Comstock (LODE/$2.95 | Price Target: $6.75)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Reaching a Turning Point; Upgrading to Outperform
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Raising our rating to Outperform. We are raising our investment rating to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $6.75 per share. With the completion of an equity offering in August that raised net proceeds of $31.8 million, Comstock has eliminated its debt obligations and is expected to be able to fund Comstock Metals’ first commercial-scale metal recycling facility. We think the company is in a much stronger position to execute its growth plans.
Comstock Metals offers investors a visible growth path. Comstock Metals is anticipated to commission a commercial-scale recycling facility with 100,000 tons per year of capacity during the first quarter of 2026 and begin ramping up operations during the second quarter. In 2026, we expect the facility to process approximately 25,225 tons of solar panels, generating revenues of $12.6 million from tipping fees, $5.0 million from mineral and metal recoveries, and a gross operating profit of $13.9 million. We expect the facility to operate at 100,000 tons per year in 2027.
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Information Services Group (III/$6.07 | Price Target: $6.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
AI Powered Momentum
Rating: OUTPERFORM
3Q25. Operating performance in 3Q25 exceeded expectations. Revenue came in at $62.4 million, up 1.8% y-o-y and up 8.8% excluding divested operations. Adjusted EBITDA grew 19% to $8.4 million and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded nearly 200 basis points to 13.5%, again ex divested ops. ISG reported GAAP net income of 3.1 million, or EPS of $0.03/sh, compared to $1.1 million, or EPS of $0.02/sh, last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.09 versus $0.05 last year.
AI and Recurring Revenue. Management noted revenue derived from AI-related activities accounted for some $20 million of overall revenue in the quarter. Recurring revenue was $28 million, up 9% year-over-year, representing 45% of overall revenue. We expect both AI-related revenue and overall recurring revenue to increase going forward.
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Resources Connection (RGP/$4.68 | Price Target: $10)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Transition At The Top
Rating: OUTPERFORM
A CEO Transition. Yesterday, Resources Connection announced the appointment of Board member Roger Carlile to serve as President and CEO, effective immediately. The leadership change comes as the Company seeks to advance its strategic transformation. Concurrently, former President and CEO Kate Duchene has transitioned to Executive Advisor through January 3, 2026.
Carlile at RGP. Mr. Carlile joined RGP’s Board of Directors in June 2024. Since joining the Board, Mr. Carlile has been working with the Company on the growth strategy with a focus on CFO Advisory and Digital Transformation consulting solutions. As CEO, Mr. Carlile brings a strong combination of skills, as both a former CFO of a public consulting firm and the founder and former CEO of a high-growth consulting firm, and has proven expertise in professional services management, investor engagement, and capital allocation strategies.
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Superior Group of Companies (SGC/$9.87 | Price Target: $16)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
The Quarter Highlights Attractive Profit Growth Potential
Rating: OUTPERFORM
In-line quarter. While revenues were a tad lighter than we hoped, the company over delivered on its SG&A cuts. As such, adj. EBITDA was in line with expectations. The modest revenue variance was completely due to softer Contact Center revenue. A portion of the revenue decline was due to the loss of a client, but there appears to be a strong pipeline of business. As such, Contact Center revenue trends should improve in subsequent quarters.
Cost cutting initiatives take center stage. SG&A expenses declined in each of the company’s operating segments, with cuts that exceeded expectations in each segment, as well. We believe that the cost reductions set the company up well for significant margin expansion as the market environment returns toward “normalcy.”
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, November 3, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – A Mixed Quarter
DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – Some Good, Some Not So Good
Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE)/OUTPERFORM – Looking Forward To Phase 3 Data Presentation This Week
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$3.76 | Price Target: $9)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Mixed Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Soft Environment. ACCO’s third quarter operating results continue to reflect a soft end market environment, with reported revenue below expectations. However, the Company delivered third quarter adjusted EPS in line with the outlook and expanded gross margin by 50 basis points as the Company continued to demonstrate strong operational discipline through ongoing execution of the $100 million cost reduction program.
Financials. Revenue of $383.7 million was down 8.8% from $420.9 million in 3Q24, modestly below management’s expected decline of 5-8%. We were at $392 million. Comp sales were down 10.3%, reflecting softer global demand. Adjusted net income was $19.5 million, compared with adjusted net income of $22.5 million in 2024, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.21, within the $0.21-$0.24 guide, but down from $0.23 in 2024. We had estimated adjusted EPS of $0.23.
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DLH Holdings (DLHC/$6.22 | Price Target: $10)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some Good, Some Not So Good
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Data. DLH filed an 8-K disclosing some preliminary financial data for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025, and updates on its CMOP (the good) and Head Start (not so good) contracts. Bad news first: DLH has lost the Head Start contract, which went to a small business. This contract generated $40 million of revenue in fiscal 2024 and $28.4 million in the first nine months of fiscal 2025. With the government shutdown ongoing, the status of protests from unsuccessful bidders is unclear.
CMOP. On the positive side, DLH has been awarded a sole-source ID/IQ to continue providing pharmacy and logistics services for 4 CMOP locations. The contract has a ceiling value of $90 million and has a maximum performance period through April 2027. The Company expects the quarterly revenue contribution from these contracts to be approximately $28 million, in-line with current revenue volume on this contract.
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Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE/$7.75 | Price Target: $20)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Looking Forward To Phase 3 Data Presentation This Week
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Phase 3 Data To Be Presented At A Medical Meeting. Presentation of data from the Hydronidone Phase 3 trial is scheduled for Friday, November 7,2025 at the The Liver Meeting, the annual conference of the American Association for the Study of Liver Disease (AASLD). This presentation is expected to give detailed clinical data on the actions Hydronidone in liver fibrosis associated with chronic hepatitis B infection. We see this indication as proof of concept as well as a revenue opportunity.
We Expect Additional Clinical Trial Details To Be Presented. The Phase 3 trial met its primary endpoint of regression of liver fibrosis, with treated patients showing a regression rate of 52.85% compared with a placebo patient rate of 29.84% (p=0.0002). This reduction compared with placebo is both statistically significant and clinically meaningful. An important secondary endpoint, reduction in inflammation, also showed meaningful improvement.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, October 31, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS)/MARKET PERFORM – Likely To Be A Bumpy Ride In The Near Term
Cumulus Media (CMLS)/MARKET PERFORM – National Advertising Perplexingly Weak
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Moving Forward With Transformation
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS/$3.62)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Likely To Be A Bumpy Ride In The Near Term
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Q1 Results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $215.2 million, and an adj. EBITDA loss of $32.9 million, both of which were largely in line with our estimates of $217.9 million and a loss of $33.0 million, respectively. Revenue decreased 11.1% over the prior year period, in part, driven by the company’s strategic decision to focus on positive marketing contribution.
Focused on profitability. In an effort to mitigate the impact of tariffs and soft demand, there is a focus on reducing costs and maintaining stable profitability. As such, operating expenses were $127.3 million in the quarter, down $12 million y-o-y. When excluding non-recurring charges and deferred compensation effects, operating expenses were $124.9 million. The operational expense reductions were driven by a 15.8% reduction in marketing spend, reduced labor costs, and early progress from the company’s efficiency initiatives.
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Cumulus Media (CMLS/$0.1034)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
National Advertising Perplexingly Weak
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Q3 beats our downcast expectations. Q3 revenue of $180.3 million and adj. EBITDA of $16.7 million, both of which were modestly better than our estimates of $179.0 million and $12.9 million, respectively. Third quarter revenues declined 11.5% from the prior period, adversely affected by the absence of $3.6 million in Political advertising and the absence of The Daily Wire and The Dan Bongino Show.
DMS remains a bright spot. The Digital Marketing Services (DMS) business remains a bright spot, with revenue surging 34% in the quarter. Notably, the digital segment now represents approximately 50% of total digital segment revenue, helping to offset persistent weakness in the core broadcast radio business.
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NN (NNBR/$1.63 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Moving Forward With Transformation
Rating: OUTPERFORM
3Q25. NN reported 3Q25 results that were below expectations, although there were some y-o-y improvements. Revenue of $103.9 million was down 8.5% y-o-y on a reported basis and down 4.4% on a pro forma basis. We had projected $115 million, and the consensus was $112 million. Gross margin rose to 16.8% and 18.8% on an adjusted basis, up from 14.5% and 16.8%, respectively, in 3Q24. Adjusted EBITDA grew to $12.4 million, or an 11.9% margin, up from $11.6 million and 10.2% last year. We had forecast $13.6 million. Adjusted net loss was $0.01/sh. We and consensus were at EPS of $0.01.
New Business. NN reported third quarter new business wins of $11.3 million, led by strategic wins in North America auto, fire protection, and aerospace and defense products. YTD, the Company has won $44.4 million of new business. Management’s goal remains to win $60-$70 million annually.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, October 29, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – Third Quarter Results Exceed Our Expectations
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Establishing a Toehold in Critical Metals
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Soft Commodity Pricing Drives Estimate Revisions
MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – Exiting Missouri
Perfect (PERF)/OUTPERFORM – Turning the Corner to Operating Profit
Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – Hits A Little Turbulence On Its Ascent
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – Resubmission For Approval Expected Before Year-End 2025
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$24.31 | Price Target: $33)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Third Quarter Results Exceed Our Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Third quarter financial results. Alliance reported third quarter adjusted EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $185.8 million and $0.73, respectively, compared to $170.4 million and $0.66 during the prior year period. We had projected EBITDA and EPU of $176.2 million and $0.68. Total revenue amounted to $571.4 million compared to $613.6 million during the prior year period and our $577.9 million estimate. While revenue from coal sales exceeded our estimate, oil and gas royalties, transportation, and other revenues were below. Third quarter results benefited from expenses that were lower than our estimates and contributions from equity method investments and the change in value of ARLP’s digital assets.
Outlook for the remainder of 2025 and 2026. Management updated its 2025 guidance. Within ARLP’s coal operation, guidance ranges were narrowed. Total sales are expected to be between 32.50 million tons and 33.25 million tons compared to prior guidance of between 32.75 million tons and 34.0 million tons. Within the oil and gas royalty segment, volumes were lowered to reflect the timing of a multi-well pad in the Delaware Basin of the Permian, which is expected to come online in early 2026.
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Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.18 | Price Target: $0.35)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Establishing a Toehold in Critical Metals
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Potential critical metals recovery project. Aurania Resources Ltd. executed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Society for the Remediation and Environmental Development of the former Balangero asbestos mine, otherwise known as RSA, and Firestone Ventures Inc. Dr. Keith Barron, Aurania’s Chief Executive Officer and director, is the President and Director of Firestone. The MOU allows for data collection and sampling of tailings at the former Balangero mine, which operated from 1916 to 1990, and is near Turin, Italy. Aurania will evaluate the tailings to recover nickel and cobalt, two critical metals for electric battery production.
Pathway to a commercial agreement. The MOU has a one-year term, and if results prove favorable, the parties are expected to enter into a commercial agreement to extract metals from the waste piles. Firestone would then conduct carbon capture on the waste stream, using industrial carbon dioxide to neutralize the contained asbestos and convert it into a useful form of carbon. Aurania and Firestone have exclusive access to the site for this evaluation.
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InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$8.7 | Price Target: $13)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Soft Commodity Pricing Drives Estimate Revisions
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updating third quarter 2025 estimates. While we are maintaining our third-quarter production forecast of 18,695 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), we lowered our third-quarter 2025 revenue, adjusted funds flow (AFF), and AFF per share estimates to C$86.8 million, C$28.0 million, and C$1.00, respectively, from C$89.3 million, C$38.9 million, and C$1.39. These changes reflect modestly lower commodity pricing, along with higher royalty costs and operating expenses. We expect third-quarter operating expenses to be elevated due to turnaround activity and downtime associated with the recently completed gas plant expansion.
Revising full-year 2025 estimates. For the full year 2025, we forecast revenue of C$301.9 million, AFF of C$116.3 million, and AFF per share of C$4.71, compared to prior estimates of C$306.7 million, C$131.8 million, and C$5.34. These reductions primarily reflect a weaker pricing environment, partially offset by a modest increase in our full-year production forecast to 16,851 boe/d from 16,800, driven by higher fourth quarter production expectations.
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MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.13 | Price Target: $0.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Exiting Missouri
Rating: OUTPERFORM
An Exit. As noted in its 2Q25 call, MariMed undertook a review of its Missouri operations and has determined to exit the market, effective immediately. Exiting Missouri is expected to improve the Company’s overall financial performance, particularly gross margin and adjusted EBITDA, and allow management to focus resources on higher return opportunities, such as markets where the Company has established retail and wholesale operations.
Background. Since 2024, the Company has managed the Missouri operations of another licensed cannabis operator and distributed certain of its brands there under a Managed Services and Licensing Agreement, while awaiting license transfer approval from the state. The Company only began generating revenue in Missouri at the tail-end of 2024. While MariMed’s brands performed well where available, reaching scale in the state would require significant resources, resources that management believes can be better utilized in its core markets. Nonetheless, the Company will consider licensing opportunities in Missouri with a vertical operator.
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Perfect (PERF/$2.05 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Turning the Corner to Operating Profit
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 beat. Perfect reported Q3 revenue of $18.7 million, up 15.7% Y/Y and above our estimate of $17.8 million, with adj. EBITDA of $1.2 million, double expectations. Revenue growth was led by strong B2C performance. The company also achieved its first quarter of operating profit, reflecting greater scale efficiency and disciplined cost control.
Continued strength in B2C. YouCam subscribers totaled 946K, down slightly, likely due to price hikes that the company initiated, which have led to higher revenue per user. B2C strength remains solid, supported by the YouCam AI Agent, which links apps under a unified login to personalize experiences and increase retention. Two apps are integrated, with full rollout expected by year-end.
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Travelzoo (TZOO/$8.31 | Price Target: $21)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Hits A Little Turbulence On Its Ascent
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Softer than expected Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $22.2 million, an increase of a solid 10.4%, and adj. EBITDA of $0.9 million, both of which were below our estimates of $23.0 million and $2.9 million, respectively. Importantly, the modestly softer than expected results were largely driven by weakness in advertising and increased marketing spend on customer acquisition.
Customer acquisition. Notably, in Q3, customer acquisition costs increased to $40 per customer, up from $38 in Q2 and $28 in Q1, reflecting the company’s strategic efforts to grow its subscriber base. Furthermore, despite higher acquisition spend per customer, return on spend remains positive. Total return per customer in Q3 was $55, which consists of $40 from annual subscription fees and $15 from in-quarter transactions. While this strategy impacted adj. EBITDA in Q3, it’s supportive of a favorable long term growth outlook.
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Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$4.72 | Price Target: $60)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Resubmission For Approval Expected Before Year-End 2025
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Unicycive Expects To Resubmit Its Application Before YE2025. Unicycive announced plans to resubmit its application for OLC (oxylanthanum carbonate) approval before the end of 2025. This follows a meeting with the FDA to identify and resolve issues that resulted in the Complete Response Letter (CRL) in June 2025. This timeframe is consistent with our expectations for resubmission. We continue to expect OLC to be approved by mid-2026.
Resubmission Announcement Follows An FDA Meeting. In early June 2025, Unicycive announced that a manufacturing inspection found deficiencies at a contract manufacturer’s facility. These inspections were one of the last steps toward approval of the New Drug Application (NDA), but the findings stopped the review process. Following the announcement, the company received a CRL on its PDUFA date of June 30, 2025.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, October 28, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Some Debt Restructuring
The Beachbody Company (BODI)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Brands To Flex Toward Growth
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$11.03 | Price Target: $14)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some Debt Restructuring
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Debt Restructuring. Yesterday, Great Lakes announced it completed an amendment to its existing Revolving Credit Facility, upsizing the facility by $100 million to $430 million and extending its maturity to October 2030 from June of 2029. We believe the expansion of Great Lakes’ revolving credit facility highlights the strength of the Company’s business and its credit profile.
Second Lien Payoff. Significantly, as part of this transaction, the Company utilized the increased revolver capacity to fully repay the $100 million second lien notes issued in 2024. This will save the Company some $6 million per year in interest expense. Great Lakes’ balance sheet remain solid, with no debt maturities until 2029 and a weighted average interest rate now under 6%.
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The Beachbody Company (BODI/$5.08 | Price Target: $12)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Strong Brands To Flex Toward Growth
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating with an Outperform rating. After years of revenue declines, we believe that the company is on the cusp of a swing toward revenue growth, offering a breakout opportunity for a stock that has been range-bound. We are initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a $12 price target.
Well-recognized brands with growth potential. The company has established brands in workout videos, such as Insanity and P90x, and nutritional supplements, including Shakeology, Beachbar, and Beachbody Performance. Such strong brands are expected to support the company’s revenue growth initiatives as it expands distribution of its products into mass merchants.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, October 24, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – A Move Into New York
MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.1426 | Price Target: $0.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Move Into New York
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New York. Continuing its market expansion, MariMed announced a licensing agreement with Farm 2 Hand, LLC, a New York State cannabis license holder, that will introduce the Company’s top-selling portfolio of products throughout New York State. Terms of the agreement were not disclosed. This expansion follows on the heels of the earlier Pennsylvania and Maine expansions, significantly increasing MariMed’s total addressable market, in our view.
Details. Farm 2 Hand intends to manufacture and distribute a variety of MariMed’s edible products as permitted under New York regulations. Those are initially expected to include Betty’s Eddies fruit chews, Bubby’s Baked goods, and InHouse gummies. The products will be produced in a new kitchen that MariMed will design and equip for Farm 2 Hand at Farm 2 Hand’s Bronx production facility.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, October 23, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cocrystal Pharma (COCP)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Adjusting Our Third Quarter and Full Year 2025 Estimates
Nutriband (NTRB)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Superior Group of Companies (SGC)/OUTPERFORM – Looking Beyond The Third Quarter
The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Cocrystal Pharma (COCP/$1.03 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Proprietary Technology & Drug Design. James Wilson, Chief Financial Officer and Co-CEO, participated in Noble’s Virtual Emerging Growth Conference on October 8th & 9th. The discussion focused on the company’s core technology to design antiviral compounds that bind to highly conserved, essential areas of the viral replication machinery, as well as progress updates on the product pipeline.The full video may be viewed here.
Lead Program & Near-Term Catalyst In Norovirus. The company’s most advanced program is CDI-988, an oral drug for norovirus. This lead indication was chosen strategically because there are no approved vaccines or therapeutics for norovirus. The market is significant, with a stated $60 billion annual market opportunity.
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Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.45 | Price Target: $2.45)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Adjusting Our Third Quarter and Full Year 2025 Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Third quarter estimate update. We have trimmed our third-quarter revenue and net income estimates to C$21.6 million and C$6.9 million, respectively, from C$23.5 million and C$7.5 million. Additionally, we have lowered our adjusted funds flow (AFF) and AFF per share estimates to C$10.0 million and C$0.10, respectively, from C$10.7 million and C$0.11.
Full-year estimate changes. For the full year 2025, we project revenues and net income of C$93.7 million and C$27.4 million, respectively, compared to our previous estimates of C$97.7 million and C$29.6 million. Moreover, we have lowered our AFF and AFF per share estimates to C$41.0 million and C$0.41, respectively, from C$43.3 million and C$0.43.
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Nutriband (NTRB/$7.04 | Price Target: $15)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Nutriband Is Developing Transdermal Abuse-Deterrent Technologies. Nutriband has developed abuse-deterrent technology for dermal patch drug delivery. Serguei Melnik, Interim CEO, and Irina Gram, Director, highlighted the company’s platform, known as AVERSA, and its focus on patches containing FDA-approved drugs. The presentation may be viewed here.
Lead Product & Market Opportunity. The lead product, AVERSA Fentanyl, is an abuse-deterrent fentanyl patch. Upon approval, the FDA could mandate such technology for all fentanyl patches, the same way it required opioid pills to have abuse-deterrents. Market analysis by Advanced Health projects annual sales of $200 million for the branded AVERSA Fentanyl. If the abuse-resistant patch were mandated and replaced generic patches, sales could reach $800 million. A patch with improved safety and abuse-deterrence could reverse the decline in fentanyl prescriptions caused by reluctance to prescribe a drug with known abuse potential.
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Superior Group of Companies (SGC/$10.19 | Price Target: $16)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Looking Beyond The Third Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q3 Preview. We expect that there will be some impact on the third quarter from the “pull forward” in Branded Product revenue into the second quarter as consumers reacted ahead of possible trade policy changes. As such, we are modestly lowering our Q3 revenue and earnings expectations, highlighted in Figure #1 Q3 Revisions.
Largest variance. The largest adjustment to our Q3 revenue estimate is in Branded Products, revised from $89.8 million to $85.0 million. In our view, this segment offers one of the largest upside surprise potential in Q4, which could benefit from an improving macro economy.
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The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI/$4.39 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Rating: OUTPERFORM
TOI Is Addressing The Unsustainable Cost Trend In Oncology. The Oncology Institute manages medical clinics that have improved outcomes and patient satisfaction while reducing the cost of cancer treatment. Dr. Daniel Virnich, CEO, and Rob Carter, CFO, highlighted the benefits of the company’s hybrid model of employed physicians and contracted independent community oncologists. The video of the company’s presentation may be viewed here.
Differentiated Competitive Advantage. TOI distinguishes itself from competitors in the value-based oncology field through its ownership of clinical assets (employed physicians and clinics). This provides greater control over care delivery compared to pure utilization management firms (such as Evolent’s New Century Health) or care navigation models (such as Thyme Care). This control enables higher compliance with value-based prescribing pathways, better integration of ancillary services, and more predictable and significant cost savings for payers.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, October 21, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Angel Island’s Commercial Appeal Grows with Lithium Hydroxide Production
Graham (GHM)/MARKET PERFORM – A Tuck In Acquisition
Twin Hospitality (TWNP)/OUTPERFORM – A High-Growth, Asset Light Restaurant Franchisor
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.2 | Price Target: $2.3)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Angel Island’s Commercial Appeal Grows with Lithium Hydroxide Production
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Century produces high-purity lithium hydroxide. Century Lithium produced its first samples of lithium hydroxide from lithium carbonate derived from Angel Island’s lithium claystone deposit and treated at its demonstration plant using the company’s patent-pending alkaline leach and direct lithium extraction (DLE) process. Century had previously focused on making lithium carbonate. By producing high-purity lithium hydroxide, Century has demonstrated an ability to produce another major lithium product for the domestic market.
Pursuing a direct lithium conversion process. Lithium hydroxide samples were produced onsite in a batch process using conventional liming conversion with calcium hydroxide to produce lithium hydroxide with a purity level of 99.5% or greater. Century is pursuing a direct lithium conversion (DLC) process to produce lithium hydroxide directly from lithium chloride solution, which would bypass producing lithium carbonate in an intermediate stage to simplify the process and reduce energy consumption and operating costs.
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Graham (GHM/$61.81)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Tuck In Acquisition
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
An Acquisition. Yesterday, after the market close, Graham announced the acquisition of certain specified assets of Xdot Bearing Technologies (“Xdot”), a specialized consulting, design, and engineering firm focused on foil bearing technology. While the acquisition price was not revealed, Graham noted Xdot has annual sales of approximately $1 million and is expected to be slightly accretive to the Company’s fiscal year 2026 GAAP net income.
Xdot. Xdot has developed and patented a breakthrough foil bearing design that delivers superior performance while lowering development and production costs. Xdot’s products are complementary to the existing product portfolio of Graham’s Barber-Nichols (BN) subsidiary and will expand capabilities within BN. Notably, Dr. Erik Swanson, Founder, President, and Chief Engineer of Xdot is a world renowned expert in foil bearing analysis, application, and fabrication and will join the BN team upon closing.
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Twin Hospitality (TWNP/$3.89 | Price Target: $10)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A High-Growth, Asset Light Restaurant Franchisor
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiation. We are initiating equity research coverage on Twin Hospitality Group with an Outperform rating and $10 price target. Twin Hospitality is a franchisor and operator of two specialty casual dining restaurant concepts: Twin Peaks and Smokey Bones. The Company is a high-growth, asset light restaurant franchisor with a compelling franchisee value proposition, in our view. On January 29, 2025, parent company FAT Brands distributed approximately 5% of Twin Hospitality Class A shares to FAT Brands shareholders, bringing Twin Hospitality public.
A Premium Sports Bar Leader. Twin Hospitality currently operates approximately 115 Twin Peaks locations, consisting of 35 Company-owned and 80 franchised units. Twin Peaks offers a differentiated sports bar experience, from the lodge experience, to its signature 28-degree draft beer, a made-from-scratch menu, always-on wall-to-wall TVs, to the Twin Peaks Ambassadors, every customer receives an experience differentiated from the competition.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, October 16, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights from the Noble Emerging Growth Virtual Conference
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Strategic Acquisition Expands Nevada Mining Footprint
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Hitting All the Right Notes
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$24.6 | Price Target: $32)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Highlights from the Noble Emerging Growth Virtual Conference
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Noble virtual conference. Alliance recently participated in Noble Capital Markets’ Emerging Growth Virtual Conference. The fundamental outlook for ARLP’s coal operations and oil and gas royalty business, the two largest drivers of cash flow, remains favorable. The coal and electric power generation industries are expected to benefit from Trump Administration policies that seek to assure affordable, reliable, and secure energy sources to meet growing demand for electricity. Through 2Q 2025, Alliance has invested $758 million in its oil and gas royalty business that has generated cumulative segment adjusted EBITDA of $622 million. While they have grown the oil and gas royalty business without the use of leverage, they do have the ability to employ leverage for larger acquisitions. A link to the presentation is here.
Capital allocation. Management takes a long-term view when making capital allocation decisions, with balance sheet strength being the highest priority. The next priority is investing in its coal business to ensure it remains an efficient and low-cost producer. The third priority is reinvesting the cash flow generated by the oil and gas business to make accretive acquisitions. Lastly, the company intends to return capital to shareholders, including attractive cash distribution payments, while ensuring flexibility to fund growth opportunities.
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Comstock (LODE/$4.23)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Strategic Acquisition Expands Nevada Mining Footprint
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Acquisition of Haywood Quarry. Comstock completed the acquisition of the Haywood Quarry industrial and mineral properties from Decommissioning Services LLC. The 190-acre property, located in Lyon County, Nevada, includes available power, water, and direct access to U.S. Highway 50. The site historically hosted gold mining and aggregate operations and is strategically contiguous to Comstock’s flagship Dayton gold and silver resource.
Transaction terms. Comstock acquired the property for a total of $2.2 million in cash and stock from Decommissioning Services LLC. The transaction provides Comstock with full ownership and control of the Haywood industrial and mineral properties, integrating them into its broader Lyon County mineral estate. The purchase also enhances Comstock’s strategic flexibility in advancing mine planning, resource development, and reclamation initiatives at the Dayton complex.
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Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.77 | Price Target: $1.2)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hitting All the Right Notes
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Treasure Mountain exploration. Nicola Mining Inc. (OTCQB: HUSIF, TSXV: NIM) provided an update on its plan for 2026 exploration drilling at the Treasure Mountain Silver Project. The area of exploration interest is northwest of the currently suspended mine and consists of several northeast to southwest trending and steeply dipping sulphide-rich veins. Results from previous exploration work confirmed the presence of vein-hosted silver, copper, lead, zinc, and gold, providing support for initial diamond drilling to establish the width of the trend and mineralization at depth.
Recent gold sales. Talisker Resources (OTCQB: TSKFF, TSX: TSK) has an agreement to process run-of-mine material from its Mustang Mine at Nicola’s Merritt Mill. For the quarter ending on September 30, a total of 1,569 ounces of gold were produced from Talisker’s Mustang Mine. Nicola receives a share of the gross profit from milling ore sourced from Talisker Resources Ltd. Blue Lagoon Resources Inc. (OTCQB: BLAGF, CSE: BLLG) recently announced an amended mining and milling partnership agreement with Nicola Mining, extending the partnership to a 10-year term. The agreement secures a long-term processing solution for mineralized material from Blue Lagoon’s high-grade Dome Mountain Gold Project.
