Category: Uncategorized

Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, October 29, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – Third Quarter Results Exceed Our Expectations
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Establishing a Toehold in Critical Metals
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Soft Commodity Pricing Drives Estimate Revisions
MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – Exiting Missouri
Perfect (PERF)/OUTPERFORM – Turning the Corner to Operating Profit
Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – Hits A Little Turbulence On Its Ascent
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – Resubmission For Approval Expected Before Year-End 2025

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$24.31 | Price Target: $33)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Third Quarter Results Exceed Our Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Third quarter financial results. Alliance reported third quarter adjusted EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $185.8 million and $0.73, respectively, compared to $170.4 million and $0.66 during the prior year period. We had projected EBITDA and EPU of $176.2 million and $0.68. Total revenue amounted to $571.4 million compared to $613.6 million during the prior year period and our $577.9 million estimate. While revenue from coal sales exceeded our estimate, oil and gas royalties, transportation, and other revenues were below. Third quarter results benefited from expenses that were lower than our estimates and contributions from equity method investments and the change in value of ARLP’s digital assets.

Outlook for the remainder of 2025 and 2026. Management updated its 2025 guidance. Within ARLP’s coal operation, guidance ranges were narrowed. Total sales are expected to be between 32.50 million tons and 33.25 million tons compared to prior guidance of between 32.75 million tons and 34.0 million tons. Within the oil and gas royalty segment, volumes were lowered to reflect the timing of a multi-well pad in the Delaware Basin of the Permian, which is expected to come online in early 2026.

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Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.18 | Price Target: $0.35)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Establishing a Toehold in Critical Metals
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Potential critical metals recovery project. Aurania Resources Ltd. executed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Society for the Remediation and Environmental Development of the former Balangero asbestos mine, otherwise known as RSA, and Firestone Ventures Inc. Dr. Keith Barron, Aurania’s Chief Executive Officer and director, is the President and Director of Firestone. The MOU allows for data collection and sampling of tailings at the former Balangero mine, which operated from 1916 to 1990, and is near Turin, Italy. Aurania will evaluate the tailings to recover nickel and cobalt, two critical metals for electric battery production.

Pathway to a commercial agreement. The MOU has a one-year term, and if results prove favorable, the parties are expected to enter into a commercial agreement to extract metals from the waste piles. Firestone would then conduct carbon capture on the waste stream, using industrial carbon dioxide to neutralize the contained asbestos and convert it into a useful form of carbon. Aurania and Firestone have exclusive access to the site for this evaluation.

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InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$8.7 | Price Target: $13)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Soft Commodity Pricing Drives Estimate Revisions
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Updating third quarter 2025 estimates. While we are maintaining our third-quarter production forecast of 18,695 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), we lowered our third-quarter 2025 revenue, adjusted funds flow (AFF), and AFF per share estimates to C$86.8 million, C$28.0 million, and C$1.00, respectively, from C$89.3 million, C$38.9 million, and C$1.39. These changes reflect modestly lower commodity pricing, along with higher royalty costs and operating expenses. We expect third-quarter operating expenses to be elevated due to turnaround activity and downtime associated with the recently completed gas plant expansion.

Revising full-year 2025 estimates. For the full year 2025, we forecast revenue of C$301.9 million, AFF of C$116.3 million, and AFF per share of C$4.71, compared to prior estimates of C$306.7 million, C$131.8 million, and C$5.34. These reductions primarily reflect a weaker pricing environment, partially offset by a modest increase in our full-year production forecast to 16,851 boe/d from 16,800, driven by higher fourth quarter production expectations.

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MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.13 | Price Target: $0.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Exiting Missouri
Rating: OUTPERFORM

An Exit. As noted in its 2Q25 call, MariMed undertook a review of its Missouri operations and has determined to exit the market, effective immediately. Exiting Missouri is expected to improve the Company’s overall financial performance, particularly gross margin and adjusted EBITDA, and allow management to focus resources on higher return opportunities, such as markets where the Company has established retail and wholesale operations.

Background. Since 2024, the Company has managed the Missouri operations of another licensed cannabis operator and distributed certain of its brands there under a Managed Services and Licensing Agreement, while awaiting license transfer approval from the state. The Company only began generating revenue in Missouri at the tail-end of 2024. While MariMed’s brands performed well where available, reaching scale in the state would require significant resources, resources that management believes can be better utilized in its core markets. Nonetheless, the Company will consider licensing opportunities in Missouri with a vertical operator.

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Perfect (PERF/$2.05 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Turning the Corner to Operating Profit
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Q3 beat. Perfect reported Q3 revenue of $18.7 million, up 15.7% Y/Y and above our estimate of $17.8 million, with adj. EBITDA of $1.2 million, double expectations. Revenue growth was led by strong B2C performance. The company also achieved its first quarter of operating profit, reflecting greater scale efficiency and disciplined cost control.

Continued strength in B2C. YouCam subscribers totaled 946K, down slightly, likely due to price hikes that the company initiated, which have led to higher revenue per user. B2C strength remains solid, supported by the YouCam AI Agent, which links apps under a unified login to personalize experiences and increase retention. Two apps are integrated, with full rollout expected by year-end.

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Travelzoo (TZOO/$8.31 | Price Target: $21)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Hits A Little Turbulence On Its Ascent
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Softer than expected Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $22.2 million, an increase of a solid 10.4%, and adj. EBITDA of $0.9 million, both of which were below our estimates of $23.0 million and $2.9 million, respectively. Importantly, the modestly softer than expected results were largely driven by weakness in advertising and increased marketing spend on customer acquisition.

Customer acquisition. Notably, in Q3, customer acquisition costs increased to $40 per customer, up from $38 in Q2 and $28 in Q1, reflecting the company’s strategic efforts to grow its subscriber base. Furthermore, despite higher acquisition spend per customer, return on spend remains positive. Total return per customer in Q3 was $55, which consists of $40 from annual subscription fees and $15 from in-quarter transactions. While this strategy impacted adj. EBITDA in Q3, it’s supportive of a favorable long term growth outlook.

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Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$4.72 | Price Target: $60)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Resubmission For Approval Expected Before Year-End 2025
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Unicycive Expects To Resubmit Its Application Before YE2025. Unicycive announced plans to resubmit its application for OLC (oxylanthanum carbonate) approval before the end of 2025. This follows a meeting with the FDA to identify and resolve issues that resulted in the Complete Response Letter (CRL) in June 2025. This timeframe is consistent with our expectations for resubmission. We continue to expect OLC to be approved by mid-2026.

Resubmission Announcement Follows An FDA Meeting. In early June 2025, Unicycive announced that a manufacturing inspection found deficiencies at a contract manufacturer’s facility. These inspections were one of the last steps toward approval of the New Drug Application (NDA), but the findings stopped the review process. Following the announcement, the company received a CRL on its PDUFA date of June 30, 2025.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – Some Debt Restructuring
The Beachbody Company (BODI)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Brands To Flex Toward Growth

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$11.03 | Price Target: $14)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some Debt Restructuring
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Debt Restructuring. Yesterday, Great Lakes announced it completed an amendment to its existing Revolving Credit Facility, upsizing the facility by $100 million to $430 million and extending its maturity to October 2030 from June of 2029. We believe the expansion of Great Lakes’ revolving credit facility highlights the strength of the Company’s business and its credit profile.

Second Lien Payoff. Significantly, as part of this transaction, the Company utilized the increased revolver capacity to fully repay the $100 million second lien notes issued in 2024. This will save the Company some $6 million per year in interest expense. Great Lakes’ balance sheet remain solid, with no debt maturities until 2029 and a weighted average interest rate now under 6%.

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The Beachbody Company (BODI/$5.08 | Price Target: $12)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Strong Brands To Flex Toward Growth
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Initiating with an Outperform rating. After years of revenue declines, we believe that the company is on the cusp of a swing toward revenue growth, offering a breakout opportunity for a stock that has been range-bound. We are initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a $12 price target. 

Well-recognized brands with growth potential. The company has established brands in workout videos, such as Insanity and P90x, and nutritional supplements, including Shakeology, Beachbar, and Beachbody Performance. Such strong brands are expected to support the company’s revenue growth initiatives as it expands distribution of its products into mass merchants. 

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, October 24, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – A Move Into New York

MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.1426 | Price Target: $0.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Move Into New York
Rating: OUTPERFORM

New York. Continuing its market expansion, MariMed announced a licensing agreement with Farm 2 Hand, LLC, a New York State cannabis license holder, that will introduce the Company’s top-selling portfolio of products throughout New York State. Terms of the agreement were not disclosed. This expansion follows on the heels of the earlier Pennsylvania and Maine expansions, significantly increasing MariMed’s total addressable market, in our view.

Details. Farm 2 Hand intends to manufacture and distribute a variety of MariMed’s edible products as permitted under New York regulations. Those are initially expected to include Betty’s Eddies fruit chews, Bubby’s Baked goods, and InHouse gummies. The products will be produced in a new kitchen that MariMed will design and equip for Farm 2 Hand at Farm 2 Hand’s Bronx production facility.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, October 23, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Cocrystal Pharma (COCP)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Adjusting Our Third Quarter and Full Year 2025 Estimates
Nutriband (NTRB)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Superior Group of Companies (SGC)/OUTPERFORM – Looking Beyond The Third Quarter
The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference

Cocrystal Pharma (COCP/$1.03 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Proprietary Technology & Drug Design. James Wilson, Chief Financial Officer and Co-CEO, participated in Noble’s Virtual Emerging Growth Conference on October 8th & 9th. The discussion focused on the company’s core technology to design antiviral compounds that bind to highly conserved, essential areas of the viral replication machinery, as well as progress updates on the product pipeline.The full video may be viewed here.

Lead Program & Near-Term Catalyst In Norovirus. The company’s most advanced program is CDI-988, an oral drug for norovirus. This lead indication was chosen strategically because there are no approved vaccines or therapeutics for norovirus. The market is significant, with a stated $60 billion annual market opportunity.

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Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.45 | Price Target: $2.45)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Adjusting Our Third Quarter and Full Year 2025 Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Third quarter estimate update. We have trimmed our third-quarter revenue and net income estimates to C$21.6 million and C$6.9 million, respectively, from C$23.5 million and C$7.5 million. Additionally, we have lowered our adjusted funds flow (AFF) and AFF per share estimates to C$10.0 million and C$0.10, respectively, from C$10.7 million and C$0.11.

Full-year estimate changes. For the full year 2025, we project revenues and net income of C$93.7 million and C$27.4 million, respectively, compared to our previous estimates of C$97.7 million and C$29.6 million. Moreover, we have lowered our AFF and AFF per share estimates to C$41.0 million and C$0.41, respectively, from C$43.3 million and C$0.43.

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Nutriband (NTRB/$7.04 | Price Target: $15)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Nutriband Is Developing Transdermal Abuse-Deterrent Technologies. Nutriband has developed abuse-deterrent technology for dermal patch drug delivery. Serguei Melnik, Interim CEO, and Irina Gram, Director, highlighted the company’s platform, known as AVERSA, and its focus on patches containing FDA-approved drugs. The presentation may be viewed here.

Lead Product & Market Opportunity. The lead product, AVERSA Fentanyl, is an abuse-deterrent fentanyl patch. Upon approval, the FDA could mandate such technology for all fentanyl patches, the same way it required opioid pills to have abuse-deterrents. Market analysis by Advanced Health projects annual sales of $200 million for the branded AVERSA Fentanyl. If the abuse-resistant patch were mandated and replaced generic patches, sales could reach $800 million. A patch  with improved safety and abuse-deterrence could reverse the decline in fentanyl prescriptions caused by reluctance to prescribe a drug with known abuse potential.

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Superior Group of Companies (SGC/$10.19 | Price Target: $16)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Looking Beyond The Third Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Q3 Preview. We expect that there will be some impact on the third quarter from the “pull forward” in Branded Product revenue into the second quarter as consumers reacted ahead of possible trade policy changes. As such, we are modestly lowering our Q3 revenue and earnings expectations, highlighted in Figure #1 Q3 Revisions. 

Largest variance. The largest adjustment to our Q3 revenue estimate is in Branded Products, revised from $89.8 million to $85.0 million. In our view, this segment offers one of the largest upside surprise potential in Q4, which could benefit from an improving macro economy. 

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The Oncology Institute, Inc. (TOI/$4.39 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Rating: OUTPERFORM

TOI Is Addressing The Unsustainable Cost Trend In Oncology. The Oncology Institute manages medical clinics that have improved outcomes and patient satisfaction while reducing the cost of cancer treatment. Dr. Daniel Virnich, CEO, and Rob Carter, CFO, highlighted the benefits of the company’s hybrid model of employed physicians and contracted independent community oncologists. The video of the company’s presentation may be viewed here. 

Differentiated Competitive Advantage. TOI distinguishes itself from competitors in the value-based oncology field through its ownership of clinical assets (employed physicians and clinics). This provides greater control over care delivery compared to pure utilization management firms (such as Evolent’s New Century Health) or care navigation models (such as Thyme Care). This control enables higher compliance with value-based prescribing pathways, better integration of ancillary services, and more predictable and significant cost savings for payers.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Angel Island’s Commercial Appeal Grows with Lithium Hydroxide Production
Graham (GHM)/MARKET PERFORM – A Tuck In Acquisition
Twin Hospitality (TWNP)/OUTPERFORM – A High-Growth, Asset Light Restaurant Franchisor

Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.2 | Price Target: $2.3)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Angel Island’s Commercial Appeal Grows with Lithium Hydroxide Production
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Century produces high-purity lithium hydroxide. Century Lithium produced its first samples of lithium hydroxide from lithium carbonate derived from Angel Island’s lithium claystone deposit and treated at its demonstration plant using the company’s patent-pending alkaline leach and direct lithium extraction (DLE) process. Century had previously focused on making lithium carbonate. By producing high-purity lithium hydroxide, Century has demonstrated an ability to produce another major lithium product for the domestic market.

Pursuing a direct lithium conversion process. Lithium hydroxide samples were produced onsite in a batch process using conventional liming conversion with calcium hydroxide to produce lithium hydroxide with a purity level of 99.5% or greater. Century is pursuing a direct lithium conversion (DLC) process to produce lithium hydroxide directly from lithium chloride solution, which would bypass producing lithium carbonate in an intermediate stage to simplify the process and reduce energy consumption and operating costs.

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Graham (GHM/$61.81)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Tuck In Acquisition
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

An Acquisition. Yesterday, after the market close, Graham announced the acquisition of certain specified assets of Xdot Bearing Technologies (“Xdot”), a specialized consulting, design, and engineering firm focused on foil bearing technology. While the acquisition price was not revealed, Graham noted Xdot has annual sales of approximately $1 million and is expected to be slightly accretive to the Company’s fiscal year 2026 GAAP net income.

Xdot. Xdot has developed and patented a breakthrough foil bearing design that delivers superior performance while lowering development and production costs. Xdot’s products are complementary to the existing product portfolio of Graham’s Barber-Nichols (BN) subsidiary and will expand capabilities within BN. Notably, Dr. Erik Swanson, Founder, President, and Chief Engineer of Xdot is a world renowned expert in foil bearing analysis, application, and fabrication and will join the BN team upon closing.

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Twin Hospitality (TWNP/$3.89 | Price Target: $10)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A High-Growth, Asset Light Restaurant Franchisor
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Initiation. We are initiating equity research coverage on Twin Hospitality Group with an Outperform rating and $10 price target. Twin Hospitality is a franchisor and operator of two specialty casual dining restaurant concepts: Twin Peaks and Smokey Bones. The Company is a high-growth, asset light restaurant franchisor with a compelling franchisee value proposition, in our view. On January 29, 2025, parent company FAT Brands distributed approximately 5% of Twin Hospitality Class A shares to FAT Brands shareholders, bringing Twin Hospitality public.

A Premium Sports Bar Leader. Twin Hospitality currently operates approximately 115 Twin Peaks locations, consisting of 35 Company-owned and 80 franchised units. Twin Peaks offers a differentiated sports bar experience, from the lodge experience, to its signature 28-degree draft beer, a made-from-scratch menu, always-on wall-to-wall TVs, to the Twin Peaks Ambassadors, every customer receives an experience differentiated from the competition.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, October 16, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights from the Noble Emerging Growth Virtual Conference
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Strategic Acquisition Expands Nevada Mining Footprint
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Hitting All the Right Notes

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$24.6 | Price Target: $32)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Highlights from the Noble Emerging Growth Virtual Conference
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Noble virtual conference. Alliance recently participated in Noble Capital Markets’ Emerging Growth Virtual Conference. The fundamental outlook for ARLP’s coal operations and oil and gas royalty business, the two largest drivers of cash flow, remains favorable. The coal and electric power generation industries are expected to benefit from Trump Administration policies that seek to assure affordable, reliable, and secure energy sources to meet growing demand for electricity. Through 2Q 2025, Alliance has invested $758 million in its oil and gas royalty business that has generated cumulative segment adjusted EBITDA of $622 million. While they have grown the oil and gas royalty business without the use of leverage, they do have the ability to employ leverage for larger acquisitions. A link to the presentation is here.

Capital allocation. Management takes a long-term view when making capital allocation decisions, with balance sheet strength being the highest priority. The next priority is investing in its coal business to ensure it remains an efficient and low-cost producer. The third priority is reinvesting the cash flow generated by the oil and gas business to make accretive acquisitions. Lastly, the company intends to return capital to shareholders, including attractive cash distribution payments, while ensuring flexibility to fund growth opportunities.

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Comstock (LODE/$4.23)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Strategic Acquisition Expands Nevada Mining Footprint
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

Acquisition of Haywood Quarry. Comstock completed the acquisition of the Haywood Quarry industrial and mineral properties from Decommissioning Services LLC. The 190-acre property, located in Lyon County, Nevada, includes available power, water, and direct access to U.S. Highway 50. The site historically hosted gold mining and aggregate operations and is strategically contiguous to Comstock’s flagship Dayton gold and silver resource.

Transaction terms. Comstock acquired the property for a total of $2.2 million in cash and stock from Decommissioning Services LLC. The transaction provides Comstock with full ownership and control of the Haywood industrial and mineral properties, integrating them into its broader Lyon County mineral estate. The purchase also enhances Comstock’s strategic flexibility in advancing mine planning, resource development, and reclamation initiatives at the Dayton complex.

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Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.77 | Price Target: $1.2)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hitting All the Right Notes
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Treasure Mountain exploration. Nicola Mining Inc. (OTCQB: HUSIF, TSXV: NIM) provided an update on its plan for 2026 exploration drilling at the Treasure Mountain Silver Project. The area of exploration interest is northwest of the currently suspended mine and consists of several northeast to southwest trending and steeply dipping sulphide-rich veins. Results from previous exploration work confirmed the presence of vein-hosted silver, copper, lead, zinc, and gold, providing support for initial diamond drilling to establish the width of the trend and mineralization at depth.

Recent gold sales. Talisker Resources (OTCQB: TSKFF, TSX: TSK) has an agreement to process run-of-mine material from its Mustang Mine at Nicola’s Merritt Mill. For the quarter ending on September 30, a total of 1,569 ounces of gold were produced from Talisker’s Mustang Mine. Nicola receives a share of the gross profit from milling ore sourced from Talisker Resources Ltd. Blue Lagoon Resources Inc. (OTCQB: BLAGF, CSE: BLLG) recently announced an amended mining and milling partnership agreement with Nicola Mining, extending the partnership to a 10-year term. The agreement secures a long-term processing solution for mineralized material from Blue Lagoon’s high-grade Dome Mountain Gold Project.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, October 14, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
EuroDry (EDRY)/MARKET PERFORM – Recovering Rates and Greater Liquidity Enhance Outlook
NeuroSense Therapeutics Ltd. (NRSN)/OUTPERFORM – Novel Therapy for ALS and Neurodegenerative Diseases
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – Randian Adds Some Detail
Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Emerging Growth Conference
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Superior Group of Companies (SGC)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights from Noble’s Virtual Conference
Townsquare Media (TSQ)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)/OUTPERFORM – Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference

Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT/$6.42 | Price Target: $11)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Management appeared confident. Bruce Ogilvie, Executive Chairman, and Jeffrey Walker, CEO, presented at Noble’s October 8th & 9th Virtual Emerging Growth Conference. This report highlights the company’s presentation and fireside Q&A chat, which provided a sanguine outlook for improved margins into fiscal 2026. Investors may listen to the company’s presentation here. 

Favorable margin expansion outlook. Operating margins are expected to expand in fiscal 2026, supported by a full year of the company’s high margin licensing deal with Paramount and development of its Handmade by Robots collectible line. In addition, management anticipates further operating efficiencies. 

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EuroDry (EDRY/$12.58)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Recovering Rates and Greater Liquidity Enhance Outlook
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

Vessel sale enhances liquidity. EuroDry recently announced an agreement to sell the M/V Eirini P. to a third party for approximately $8.5 million, with the transaction expected to close in October 2025. The sale is projected to generate a gain of approximately $0.6 million, or roughly $0.21 per share. The proceeds will enhance near-term liquidity and strengthen EuroDry’s flexibility to pursue selective investments in more efficient vessels.

Market environment improving. The dry-bulk market has shown signs of recovery as charter rates have recently rebounded from multi-year lows. The improvement reflects strengthening market sentiment, supported by limited fleet growth and rising expectations for Chinese demand. A historically low orderbook and modest fleet expansion provide a constructive foundation for rate stabilization heading into 2026.

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NeuroSense Therapeutics Ltd. (NRSN/$1.22 | Price Target: $9)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Novel Therapy for ALS and Neurodegenerative Diseases
Rating: OUTPERFORM

We Are Initiating Coverage of NeuroSense With An Outperform Rating. NeuroSense Therapeutics is developing therapies for degenerative neurological conditions. The lead product, PrimeC, has completed two Phase 2 trials for ALS (Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis) and has a Phase 3 trial planned for early 2026. Initial results from Phase 2 in Alzheimer’s disease has shown promising data. Our price target is $9 per share.

The Lead Indication For PrimeC Is in ALS. PrimeC is a novel formulation containing a combination of celecoxib and ciprofloxacin. These two drugs have been used separately for anti-inflammatory and anti-antimicrobial indications. After new data showed that each drug can affect pathways of degenerative disease, scientists at NeuroSense tested the two drugs together in models of ALS and found a synergistic effect. Two Phase 2 studies showed benefits on survival, disease progression, and biomarkers of ALS activity.

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ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$2.56 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Randian Adds Some Detail
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Additional Detail. Randian Capital added another post on the social media platform X, providing additional details to its proposed turnaround plan for ONE Group Hospitality. Reportedly, the latest Randian X post was in response to STKS CEO Manny Hilario and CFO Nicole Thaung stating they had not engaged with Randian and were unaware if the firm held shares. The pair reiterated that ONE Group had no changes to guidance or plans for capital deployment being made.

The Driver. As we noted in our September 29th note, Randian believes there is tangible, underutilized value in this franchise—especially in Benihana, a legendary brand with global recognition and untapped potential. However, poor capital allocation, slipping operational execution, and marketing that is failing to drive engagement have resulted in a 60% decline in the share price since the 2024 Benihana acquisition, according to Randian.

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Saga Communications (SGA/$12.6 | Price Target: $18)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Emerging Growth Conference
Rating: OUTPERFORM

A blended growth opportunity. This report highlights a fireside chat with Christopher Forgy, CEO & President, and Samuel Bush, CFO, at Noble’s Virtual Emerging Growth Conference on October 8th & 9th. Management highlighted its attractive growth opportunities from its “blended” advertising strategy. The full presentation may be viewed here. 

Blended advertising strategy. Saga’s approach integrates radio (“wanted”), search (“found”), and display (“chosen”) to capture the full consumer journey. Management targets disrupting 5% of local digital ad spend to double annual gross revenue, focusing on 27 small-to-medium-sized markets where the company has trusted community relationships.

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Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$10.07 | Price Target: $23)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Noble virtual conference highlights. Tal Keinan (CEO) and Francisco Gonzalez (CFO) of Sky Harbour Group (NYSE: SKYH) presented at Noble’s Emerging Growth Virtual Conference on October 8–9, 2025. Management highlighted continued lease-up at Phoenix, Dallas, and Denver, steady pre-leasing at Dulles (IAD) and Bradley (BDL), and progress on capital efficiency. A rebroadcast can be found here.

Leasing and pipeline on pace. Operations at Phoenix, Dallas, and Denver are leasing at a good clip, and the company has secured one pre-lease tenant at both IAD and BDL ahead of construction. Sky Harbour now holds long-term ground leases at 18 airports (nine operating, nine in development) and reaffirmed plans to add five more by year-end, bringing the total to 23.

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SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.26 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Highlights from Noble’s Emerging Growth Virtual Conference. Lenny Sokolow, CEO of SKYX Platforms (NASDAQ: SKYX), presented at Noble’s Virtual Conference on October 8–9, 2025. He discussed growing developer adoption, the upcoming Smart Ceiling Heater / Fan launch, progress toward mandatory code standardization, and reaffirmed expectations for adj. EBITDA inflection in Q4. A rebroadcast can be found here.

Developer partnerships gaining momentum. SKYX continues to expand across the builder channel with projects from Landmark Companies (278-unit Austin apartments), Forte Developments (luxury towers in Miami, Clearwater Beach, and Jupiter), Cavco Homes (premium prefabricated models), and the $3 billion Miami Urban Smart City. These initiatives represent large-scale unit potential and underscore accelerating adoption among professional developers.

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Snail (SNAL/$1.04 | Price Target: $3.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Prospects for Stablecoin. This report highlights key takeaways from the company’s presentation at Noble’s Virtual Emerging Growth Conference on October 8th & 9th. Heidy Chow, CFO, and Peter Lin, FP&A outlined the key growth attributes for the company, including its emerging interest in developing a stablecoin. The full presentation may be found here. 

Solid 2024 Performance and Franchise Resilience. Snail delivered a strong year, with FY2024 revenue reaching $85 million, supported by its enduring ARK franchise, which has accumulated over 90 million players and 4.1 billion total playtime hours since launch.

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Superior Group of Companies (SGC/$10.07 | Price Target: $16)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Highlights from Noble’s Virtual Conference
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Plowing through the trade fog. Michael Benstock, Chairman and CEO, and Michael Koempel, President and CFO, presented at Noble’s October 8th & 9th Virtual Emerging Growth Conference. This report highlights the company’s fireside Q&A chat, which provided a constructive revenue and earnings growth outlook in spite of trade policy turmoil. Investors may listen to the company’s presentation here. 

Diversified operations. The company operates in three segments, healthcare apparel, branded products, and contact centers. Diversification across these three segments provides both growth potential and resilience against macroeconomic uncertainty, including tariffs and political volatility.

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Townsquare Media (TSQ/$6.09 | Price Target: $21)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Rating: OUTPERFORM

A differentiated digital company. Bill Wilson, CEO, Stuart, Rosenstein, CFO, and Claire Yenicay, Executive Vice President, participated in a fireside chat at Noble’s Virtual Emerging Growth Conference on October 8th & 9th. The discussion focused on the company’s differentiated digital growth opportunities and compelling total return potential. This report provides some of the highlights from the discussion, but the full discussion may be viewed here.  

Townsquare Interactive turning towards growth. Townsquare Interactive provides subscription-based digital marketing solutions for SMBs at ~$300/month, offering website management, CRM, email/text marketing, and payment integration. After temporary disruption in 2023–2024 due to a service model overhaul and return-to-office mandate, 2025 is returning to strong profit growth (~$3 million), with revenue growth expected to resume in 2026.

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Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE/$2.66 | Price Target: $4.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Highlights From Noble’s Virtual Conference
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Transformational progress. Brendan Hoffman, CEO, Yuji Okumura, CFO, and Akiko Okuma, Chief Administrative Officer, discussed the significant transformation of the company toward revenue and cash flow growth and profitability at Noble’s Virtual Emerging Growth Conference on October 8th & 9th. Highlights from the fireside chat are featured in this report, and the full discussion is available here. 

Minimizing the China impact. The company significantly reduced sourcing concentration from roughly 60% of production in China to approximately 25% today, offsetting the impact of tariff rates as high as 158%. Management noted that long-standing manufacturing partners in China have established sister facilities in other Asian countries, helping preserve quality standards while lowering exposure risk.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, October 13, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – Some Legal Resolution
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$17.99 | Price Target: $28)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Noble Virtual Conference. CoreCivic CFO David Garfinkle and Managing Director of Investor Relations Jeb Bachmann presented at the Noble Virtual Conference. Highlights included increased demand, long-term trends, and return of capital. A rebroadcast is available at https://www.channelchek.com/videos/corecivic-cxw-noble-capital-markets-virtual-conference-replay-october-2025.

Market Share. CoreCivic remains the largest non-government owner of correctional and detention real estate in the U.S., owning approximately 57% of all privately owned correctional and detention capacity. The Company manages approximately 41% of all privately managed correctional and detention capacity.

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FAT Brands (FAT/$1.98 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some Legal Resolution
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Legal Resolution. In an 8-K filing, FAT Brands disclosed that the Company and certain current and former directors and officers have reached a settlement agreement with stockholders of the Company to resolve two lawsuits known as Harris I and Harris II. The Derivative Actions were filed in June 2021, relating to the Company’s December 2020 merger with Fog Cutter Capital Group, and in March 2022, relating to the Company’s June 2021 recapitalization.

Details. Under the terms of the settlement agreement, the Company’s Board of Directors agreed to adopt and implement certain corporate governance modifications. In addition, the Company’s insurers will pay to the Company $10 million, from which fees and expenses of plaintiffs’ counsel will be deducted, and Fog Cutter Holdings LLC will contribute 200,000 Class A shares of Twin Hospitality Group Inc. to the Company.

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NN (NNBR/$1.82 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Noble Virtual Conference Highlights
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Noble Virtual Conference. NN CEO Harold Bevis, CFO Chris Bohnert, and COO Tim French presented at the Noble Virtual Conference. Highlights included improving end markets outlook, an on track new business win program, and a focus on de-leveraging. A rebroadcast is available at https://www.channelchek.com/videos/nn-inc-nnbr-noble-capital-markets-virtual-conference-replay-october-2025.

Phase 2. NN is entering Phase 2 of its transformation program. Phase 1 structurally rebuilt NN’s operating performance and efficiency through fixing unprofitable areas, improving margins, and entering new markets. Phase 2 is a growth and de-leverage focus, implementing new business programs, expanding the TAM, and addressing the preferred stock.

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Resources Connection (RGP/$4.54 | Price Target: $10)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Post Call Commentary
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Some Positives. The Company continues on its transformation path and is seeing encouraging signs, in our opinion. For example, the Company saw a return to growth in revenue for both the Europe & Asia- Pac segment and the Outsourced Services segment, with 5% and 4% growth over the prior year quarter. Revenue from the top 10 clients also grew year-over-year, and the enterprise-wide average bill rate increased to $120 on a constant currency basis, up from $118 a year ago.

Ongoing Cost Focus. The other side of the transformation plan is a focus on cost control. RGP continues to make good progress on its SG&A, as reflected in the quarter’s numbers. Post quarter, on September 30, 2025, in the face of continued end market sluggishness, RGP commenced a global reduction in its management and administrative workforce intended to enhance efficiencies through reduced costs and streamlined operations. Management expects approximately $6 million to $8 million of annual cost savings associated with this effort.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, October 10, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – A Multi-Year Growth Story

AZZ (AZZ/$100.75 | Price Target: $120)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
A Multi-Year Growth Story
Rating: OUTPERFORM

FY 2026 second-quarter results. AZZ reported adjusted net income of $46.9 million, or $1.55 per share, compared to $41.3 million, or $1.37 per share, during the prior year period. We projected adjusted net income of $46.7 million, or $1.54 per share. Compared to the second quarter of FY 2025, total sales increased 2.0% to $417.3 million. We had projected sales of $428.3 million. Gross margin of $101.3 million was modestly below our estimate of $104.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA declined modestly to $88.7 million compared to $91.9 million during the prior year period and our estimate of $93.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin as a percentage of sales declined to 21.3% compared to 22.5% during the prior year quarter.

Updating estimates. We have lowered our FY 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS estimates to $1.642 billion, $369.2 million, and $5.98 per share, respectively, from $1.660 billion, $374.9 million, and $6.00 per share. Our revised forecasts reflect second-quarter results and more moderate sales growth in the second half of the year. Our longer-term estimates through FY 2031 reflect multi-year growth and are summarized at the end of this report. Our estimates could prove conservative if AZZ is successful in consummating acquisitions, which we do not reflect in our estimates until announced.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, October 9, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Staying Focused on the Big Picture
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – Monthly Ethereum Metrics
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – First Look at 1Q26

AZZ (AZZ/$105.94 | Price Target: $125)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Staying Focused on the Big Picture
Rating: OUTPERFORM

FY 2026 second-quarter financial results. AZZ reported adjusted net income of $46.9 million, or $1.55 per share, compared to $41.3 million, or $1.37 per share, during the prior year period. We had forecast adjusted net income of $46.7 million, or $1.54 per share. Compared to the second quarter of FY 2025, total sales increased 2.0% to $417.3 million. We had projected sales of $428.3 million. Gross margin of $101.3 million was modestly below our estimate of $104.7 million. Sales and gross margins trailed our expectations for both segments. However, operating income of $68.5 million exceeded our estimate of $66.1 million due to lower selling, general, and administrative expenses. Adjusted EBITDA declined modestly to $88.7 million compared to $91.9 million during the prior year period and our estimate of $93.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin as a percentage of sales declined to 21.3% compared to 22.5% during the second quarter of FY 2025.

Results were mixed. While Metal Coatings sales were up 10.8% compared to the prior year quarter, Precoat Metals sales were down 4.3%. Metal Coatings delivered higher sales due to increased volume driven by infrastructure-related projects in several end markets. Precoat Metals experienced lower sales due to weaker end markets, including building construction, HVAC, and appliance.

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Bit Digital (BTBT/$4.04 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Monthly Ethereum Metrics
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Data. Bit Digital reported its monthly Ethereum (“ETH”) treasury and staking metrics for the month of September 2025. As of September 30, 2025, the Company held approximately 121,187 ETH, versus 121,252 ETH at the end of August. Included in the ETH holdings were approximately 15,075 ETH and ETH-equivalents held in an externally managed fund, and approximately 5,142 ETH presented on an as-converted basis from LsETH using the Coinbase conversion rate as of 9/30/25. The Company’s total staked ETH was approximately 99,936 as of September 30th.

Yield and Value. Staking operations generated approximately 291 ETH in rewards during September, representing an annualized yield of approximately 3.37%. Based on a closing ETH price of $4,145.99, as of September 30, 2025, the market value of the Company’s ETH holdings was approximately $506.6 million.

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Resources Connection (RGP/$4.95 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
First Look at 1Q26
Rating: OUTPERFORM

A Beat. Resources Connection reported first quarter revenue, gross margin, and SG&A expenses better than expected, although the top line continued to decline y-o-y, as expected. RGP is engaging with clients on more consulting opportunities, which have higher bill rates, larger deal size, and often create more extension and cross selling. However, the macro environment remains unpredictable, which makes clients hesitant to begin new projects.

Details. 1Q26 revenue came in at $120.2 million, down from $136.9 million in 1Q25, but above the $120 million high-end of management’s guidance. Gross margin came in at 39.5%, a significant y-o-y improvement from 36.5% in 1Q25 and above the 36-37% guidance range. SG&A expense of $47.9 million improved from $48.9 million in 1Q25. RGP recorded a GAAP net loss of $2.4 million, or $0.07/sh, compared to a $5.7 million, or $0.17/sh, net loss, in 1Q25. Adjusted EPS was $0.03/sh versus breakeven last year. 

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, October 6, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT)/OUTPERFORM – Delivering Music To Our Ears: Cash Flow And Earnings Growth
SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Strengthening Position Among Residential Developers
Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Exiting A Successful Run

Alliance Entertainment Holding (AENT/$6.73 | Price Target: $11)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Delivering Music To Our Ears: Cash Flow And Earnings Growth
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Initiating coverage with Outperform rating. Alliance Entertainment is a leading distributor of physical products, including vinyl records, music CDs, Blu-ray and 4K Movies, Video Games and Electronics, and Collectibles. While some of its business lines are mature, there are attractive growth opportunities in developing revenue streams that carry higher margins. As such, we believe that the company is on the cusp of generating significant cash flow and earnings growth.

Expanding margin outlook. In spite of anticipated modest revenue growth of 2.4% in fiscal 2026, we anticipate a nearly 140 basis point improvement in adj. EBITDA margins in fiscal 2026, given our expectation of higher margin, developing revenue streams and the company’s focus on efficiencies. We expect an acceleration in revenue in fiscal 2027 to 3.1% with another 60 basis point improvement in margins. 

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SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.13 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Strengthening Position Among Residential Developers
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Landmark partnership expands builder channel. SKYX announced it will supply more than 10,000 smart plug-and-play lighting and safety products to a 278-apartment project in Austin, Texas led by Landmark Companies. We believe this marks another important step in the company’s efforts to penetrate the builder channel, signaling traction with traditional residential developers.

Potential for broader builder relationships. By establishing a relationship with a large developer like Landmark, SKYX positions itself for additional project opportunities if early deployments prove successful. This deal highlights the potential for SKYX to extend its platform into the broader residential developer market, with initial supply expected to begin as early as within the next quarter or two.

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Xcel Brands (XELB/$2.38 | Price Target: $7)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Exiting A Successful Run
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Exits its Mizrahi interest. The company transferred its remaining 17.5% interest in Isaac Mizrahi to IM Topco, effectively exiting its interest in the brand. The exit of the Mizrahi relationship with Xcel caps a storied and successful run with the company since 2011. Under Xcel, Mizrahi expanded its categories and collections on QVC and into such retailers as Bloomingdale’s and Nordstrom.  

Financial upside. Xcel has a participation right should IM Topco sell the company above $46.0 million, coincidentally, the price that Xcel sold its 60% interest. Xcel would receive 15% of the net consideration in excess of the $46 million. In addition, we believe that the company will benefit from the absent of costs related to the brand, particularly employee costs. 

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, October 3, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Favorable Preliminary Results and Tuck-in Acquisition

Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$3.83 | Price Target: $9)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Favorable Preliminary Results and Tuck-in Acquisition
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Strong preliminary results. Bitcoin Depot announced preliminary Q3 results of approximately $160M in revenue (+18% Y/Y) and roughly 50% growth in adj. EBITDA versus the prior year. Both topline and profitability are tracking well ahead of management’s prior Q2 guidance of high-single-digit revenue and 20–30% adj. EBITDA growth.

Beating expectations. In light of these results, the company is expected to exceed our Q3 forecast of $146.5M in revenue and $11.0M in adj. EBITDA. Preliminary figures imply approximately $13.8M in adj. EBITDA, meaning profitability should surpass our expectations by nearly 25%.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, October 2, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Progress on the Permitting Front
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – An Award for Diamondback
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Strategic Vessel Sale and Improving Capesize Fundamentals
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Some More Awards

Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.29 | Price Target: $2.35)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Progress on the Permitting Front
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Moving through the permitting process. Century has completed all required environmental baseline studies to begin Angel Island’s National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) permitting process, which is expected to take up to two years before reaching a record of decision. The studies will be used by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to support the company’s upcoming Plan of Operations submission and subsequent NEPA analysis. 

FAST-41 designation. In August 2025, Angel Island was formally designated as a FAST-41 Transparency project under a federal initiative designed to improve the transparency, coordination, and timeliness of the federal environmental review and permitting process. The designation reflects Angel Island’s strategic importance in supporting the U.S. critical minerals supply chain. We think the Angel Island project is well-positioned for a timely progression through the permitting process.

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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$20.55 | Price Target: $28)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
An Award for Diamondback
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Diamondback. Yesterday, CoreCivic announced it was awarded a new contract under an Intergovernmental Services Agreement between the Oklahoma Department of Corrections and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) to resume operations at the Company’s 2,160-bed Diamondback Correctional Facility, a facility that has been idle since 2010.

Details. The new contract commenced on September 30, 2025, for a term of five years and may be extended through bilateral modification. The agreement provides for a fixed monthly payment plus an incremental per diem payment based on detainee populations. Total annual revenue once the facility is fully activated is expected to be approximately $100 million. The facility should begin receiving detainees in the first quarter of 2026, with the full ramp estimated to be complete in the second quarter of 2026.

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Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$8.58 | Price Target: $11)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Strategic Vessel Sale and Improving Capesize Fundamentals
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Sale of M/V Geniuship. Seanergy announced the sale of the M/V Geniuship, a 170,057 dwt Capesize vessel, for approximately $21.6 million, generating net cash proceeds of $12.0 million and a profit of about $2.5 million. The sale was timed to take advantage of improved vessel valuations while avoiding the costs of the vessel’s scheduled dry-docking. The transaction enhances liquidity, improves near-term earnings, and aligns with the company’s ongoing fleet renewal strategy.

Capesize market gains momentum. The Capesize market has strengthened in recent months, supported by iron ore and bauxite projects in the Atlantic basin and West Africa, while volatility due to tariffs has moderated. The orderbook remains limited, with shipyard slots not available until 2029. Rising vessel values, together with higher construction costs, have further restricted orders. Overall, we expect market conditions to remain favorable, with 2026 showing improvement over 2025.

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V2X (VVX/$58.08 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some More Awards
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Awards. V2X has been the recipient of new awards, including one focused on extending the life-cycle of existing platforms and another driving connectivity and communications. In total, the three new awards total over $580 million of contract value, assuming all funds are spent. We view the recent wins as further confirmation of V2X’s ability to provide full mission lifecycle solutions.

Center Display Units. V2X’s Vertex Modernization and Sustainment unit was awarded by the Air Force a five-year ID/IQ contract with a single five-year option (10 years total) with a contract ceiling of $425 million for center display units (CDU), according to the Department of War’s daily contract awards. V2X will supply the Air Force with the following hardware during this period: CDU full kits, CDU line replaceable units, CDU shop replaceable units, and various other support hardware as required.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, October 1, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – A Convertible Note Offering
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – Retains ISAP Contract

Bit Digital (BTBT/$3 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Convertible Note Offering
Rating: OUTPERFORM

An Offering. Bit Digital is offering $135 million of convertible notes. The deal is upsized from an original $100 million. Net proceeds from the offering will be used primarily to purchase Ethereum, and may be used for general corporate purposes, including potential investments, acquisitions, and other business opportunities. The capital raise continues management’s goal of becoming a major Ethereum treasury company, in our view.

Details. The Notes will be senior, unsecured obligations of the Company and will accrue interest at a rate of 4.00% per year, payable semiannually in arrears. The Notes will mature on October 1, 2030. The initial conversion rate will be 240.3846 shares per $1,000 principal amount of Notes (equivalent to an initial conversion price of $4.16 per ordinary share and represents a conversion premium of 30% above the last reported sale price of the ordinary shares on September 29, 2025, which was $3.20).

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The GEO Group (GEO/$20.49 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Retains ISAP Contract
Rating: OUTPERFORM

ISAP Award. As we had expected, The GEO Group has retained the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (“ISAP”) contract. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (“ICE”) awarded the contract to GEO’s BI subsidiary for the continued provision of electronic monitoring, case management, and supervision services. It is a two-year contract, which will have an initial term of one year, effective  October 1, 2025, with an additional one-year option period.

Long-time Services Provider. BI has provided technology solutions, holistic case management, supervision, monitoring, and compliance services under the ISAP contract for over 21 years and has achieved high levels of compliance using a wide range of technologies and case management services over that time.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – U.S. Coal as a Strategic and Competitive Advantage
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Letter Contracts to Contract Awards
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – Activist Investor Sees $10+ Stock in 12-18 Months

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$25.02 | Price Target: $32)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
U.S. Coal as a Strategic and Competitive Advantage
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Investments to reinvigorate the U.S. coal industry.  The U.S. Department of Energy announced a $625 million program to expand and reinvigorate the U.S. coal industry. This includes $350 million to recommission or modernize coal power units, $175 million for coal power projects directly benefiting rural communities, $50 million to support advanced wastewater management systems to enable coal plants to extend their service life and reduce operational costs, $25 million for dual-firing retrofits, and $25 million for development and testing of natural gas cofiring systems.

Expanded coal leasing on federal lands. Moreover, the U.S. Department of the Interior announced it is making up to 13.1 million acres of federal land available for coal leasing and streamlining approvals for projects. The Department is accelerating efforts to fast-track projects that can recover strategic minerals from mine waste and abandoned sites. The One Big Beautiful Bill, passed on July 4, established lower coal leasing royalty rates of not more than 7% for both surface and underground mines for the period July 4, 2025, to September 30, 2034.

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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$21.54 | Price Target: $28)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Letter Contracts to Contract Awards
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Contract Awards. As anticipated, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) awarded CoreCivic two new contracts, which, once fully activated, would generate total annual revenue of approximately $200 million. The two facilities, California City and Midwest Regional, had been operating under Letter Contracts with ICE, which enable CoreCivic to begin operations at a facility while negotiating a longer-term contract. Both facilities were idle at the beginning of the year.

California City. CoreCivic has been preparing to accept detainees at the 2,560-bed California City facility since April 1, 2025. The Company began receiving detainees at the facility on August 27, 2025. Management currently expects the activation to be complete in 1Q26, achieving a normalized run-rate in 2Q26. Total annual revenue, once the activation is complete, is expected to be approximately $130 million. The new contract expires in August 2027.

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ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$3.12 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Activist Investor Sees $10+ Stock in 12-18 Months
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Activist Investor. Randian Capital, part of the “retail activist” group behind the sharp rise in Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) stock from less than a $1 mid-summer to around $8.20 today, released on social media platform X a turnaround proposal for The ONE Group. In a nutshell, the plan consists of Refocus the Portfolio, Revitalize the Brand, Strengthen Operations, and Capital Discipline & Growth. Radian sees a path to a $10+ stock over the next 12-18 months. STKS shares rose over 26% yesterday on the news.

Refocus & Revitalize. Randian calls for ONE Group to refocus solely on its Benihana concept, selling off all other concepts. The activist investor believes the STK concept alone could be worth more than the current market cap. Randian suggests rebranding as Benihana Group and changing the stock symbol. Revitalization by elevating the dining experience and engaging with cultural icons, among other changes.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, September 26, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Heightened Risk in Ecuador
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Revising Estimates; Growth Outlook Remains Favorable
Steelcase (SCS)/MARKET PERFORM – A Better Than Expected 2Q26

Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.1 | Price Target: $0.35)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Heightened Risk in Ecuador
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Second quarter financial results. As an exploration company, Aurania does not generate revenue and has expenses to advance its projects. During the second quarter of 2025, the company generated a net loss of C$1,610,843 or C$0.01 per share. We had projected a loss of C$1,432,419 or C$0.01 per share. The variance to our estimate was mostly due to higher exploration expenditures, along with higher stock-based compensation. We project a full-year 2025 net loss of C$11.1 million, or C$(0.10) per share, compared to our prior loss estimate of C$10.5 million, or C$(0.09) per share.

Mining service fee. Ecuador recently implemented a new mining service fee on the resource sector (refer to our note dated July 29, 2025). The Ecuadorian Control and Regulation Agency (ARCOM) requested payment from Aurania of US$2,012,618 by July 31, 2025, representing one month of the total annual fee of US$24,151,420. While the penalty for non-payment is unclear, we think Aurania is withholding payment until it becomes clear whether TASA will stand in its current form due to multiple constitutional challenges.

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AZZ (AZZ/$110.64 | Price Target: $125)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Revising Estimates; Growth Outlook Remains Favorable
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Updating estimates. We are lowering our second-quarter revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS estimates to $428.3 million, $93.4 million, and $1.54, respectively, from $433.5 million, $101.1 million, and $1.59. While we have increased our revenue estimate for the Metal Coatings segment, we lowered expectations for Precoat Metals due to anticipated weakness in building construction. Our FY 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS estimates are $1.660 billion, $374.9 million, and $6.00, respectively, compared to our prior estimates of $1.680 billion, $388.3 million, and $6.00. Our revised estimates reflect lower interest expense, along with modestly lower depreciation and amortization expense.

Organic and acquired growth. AZZ’s three-year goals include generating sales of two billion dollars or more in fiscal year 2028, compared to its trailing twelve-month sales of $1.6 billion. Organic growth is expected to exceed GDP growth, and AZZ is targeting acquisitions that strengthen both of its business segments. While we do not forecast sales of $2.0 billion until 2031, our model does not reflect acquisitions until they are announced.

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Steelcase (SCS/$16.7)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Better Than Expected 2Q26
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

2Q26. In what is likely the Company’s final quarterly report as a public company, Steelcase reported better than expected results. Results benefitted from continued strengthening of demand from large corporate customers and International growth driven by India, China, and the United Kingdom. Improved International volume drove a $5 million reduction in y-o-y adjusted operating loss in the International segment. These were Steelcase’s highest quarterly results over the past five years.

Financials. Revenue of $897.1 million rose 4.8% y-o-y and exceeded the $890 million high end of management’s guidance. We were at $875 million. Gross margin of 34.4% was flat y-o-y and exceeded the 33.5% high end of guidance. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $99.6 million, or 11.1% of revenue, up from $89.5 million and 10.5% in 2Q25. Adjusted EPS was $0.45, versus $0.39 last year and above management’s $0.40 high end guide. We were at $0.36.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Reaches Milestone in Helping Medicare-Eligible Seniors

SelectQuote (SLQT/$2.08 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Reaches Milestone in Helping Medicare-Eligible Seniors
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Milestone in Findhelp partnership. SelectQuote  announced that it has referred more than 200,000 low-income seniors to Findhelp, with nearly 50,000 of those individuals accessing free or reduced-cost services. The milestone demonstrates SelectQuote’s role in addressing the needs of Medicare-eligible consumers.

Partnership connects consumers to critical support. Findhelp is a closed-loop referral management software platform that connects individuals with community resources such as food, housing, transportation, and financial aid. SelectQuote has partnered with Findhelp for several years, directing seniors to assistance programs. The initiative does not generate revenue, but it extends SelectQuote’s Medicare distribution model by providing tangible value to consumers.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

The ODP Corporation (ODP)/MARKET PERFORM – To Be Acquired for $28/sh

The ODP Corporation (ODP/$27.68)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
To Be Acquired for $28/sh
Rating: MARKET PERFORM

An Acquisition. Yesterday morning, The ODP Corporation announced it entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by an affiliate of Atlas Holdings for $28/sh. The purchase price represents a premium of 34% to Friday’s closing price. ODP’s Board is supporting the transaction, which is expected to close by the end of 2025.

Who Is Atlas Holdings? Founded in 2002 by Andrew Bursky and Tim Fazio, Greenwich, CT-based Atlas Holdings owns and operates a global family of manufacturing and distribution businesses that together generate more than $20 billion in annual revenue. Atlas has experience in the office supplies sector through its LSC Communications unit, a leader in organizational solutions through brands such as Pendaflex.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, September 22, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – Raising Price Target

Information Services Group (III/$5.38 | Price Target: $6.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Raising Price Target
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Raising Price Target. We are raising our price target on III shares to $6.50 from a prior $5, as III shares have exceeded our price target. The recent and expected future interest rate cuts, ongoing cost optimization efforts from clients, and the increasing pace of AI adoption will continue to drive ISG’s operating performance, in our view.

Valuation. At our $6.50 price target, III shares would trade at 1.4x our 2026 revenue estimate on an EV/sales basis, 10.7x on an EV/projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA basis, and 19.1x adjusted 2026 earnings. This compares to a peer group that trades at 1.3x, 10x, and 15.8x, respectively, consensus 2026 estimates.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, September 19, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – OCU400 Licensing Agreement For Korea Completed

Ocugen (OCGN/$1.4 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
OCU400 Licensing Agreement For Korea Completed
Rating: OUTPERFORM

OCU400 Licensing Completed. Ocugen has announced the completion of a licensing agreement for Korea with Kwangdong Pharmaceutical, Co., Ltd., a diversified pharmaceutical company in the Republic of South Korea. This finalizes the term sheet announced in August with the 2Q25 business update. We have based our revenue expectations on US and Europe, with the Korea agreement adding additional cash upon the signing and downstream royalties.

Agreement Provides Cash, Milestones, and Royalties. The terms provide Ocugen with signing and near-term milestones of $7.5 million. Under the agreement, Ocugen will manufacture and supply OCU400 in exchange for a royalty of 25% of Net Sales plus sales milestones of $1 million for every $15 million in Net Sales, or roughly 32% per $15 million in sales. There are an estimated 7,000 retinitis pigmentosa (RP) patients in Korea, with an estimated market of about $180 million over the first 10 years of sales. We estimate these potential payments at about $65 million to Ocugen.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, September 18, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – RAIL Adopts Stockholder Rights Plan
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – A Month of Awards
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Updating Our Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation; Increasing PT to US$1.05 or C$1.45

FreightCar America (RAIL/$8.71 | Price Target: $17)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
RAIL Adopts Stockholder Rights Plan
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Protecting the interests of all shareholders. Following a review of the company’s current ownership structure, FreightCar America announced that its Board of Directors adopted a limited-duration stockholder rights plan.The rights plan will expire on August 5, 2026, unless terminated earlier by the Board. The Rights Plan is intended to reduce the likelihood that any person or group gains control of the company through open-market accumulation or other tactics without paying an appropriate control premium. The plan also ensures the Board has sufficient time to make informed decisions that protect the interests of the company and all RAIL shareholders.

Increasing 2026 estimates. We have increased our 2026 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $53.6 million and $0.65, respectively, from $53.2 million and $0.64. Our estimate update reflects stronger deliveries in the second half of the year, with a full-year estimate of 4,850 compared with our previous estimate of 4,800. We now expect quarterly deliveries of: 1Q: 982, 2Q: 1,200, 3Q: 1,284, and 4Q: 1,384. Previously we had assumed: 1Q: 1,346, 2Q: 1,275, 3Q: 1,058, and 4Q: 1,121.

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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$11.97 | Price Target: $14)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Month of Awards
Rating: OUTPERFORM

More Business. Over the past month, Great Lakes continued to be awarded additional business, according to the Department of War’s daily contract awards release. In total, the announced awards (and recall not all awards are included in the daily notice), totaled approximately $80 million, demonstrating Great Lakes’ operating capabilities as well as the ongoing demand from the government.

September. Most recently, Great Lakes was awarded a $27.9 million firm-fixed-price contract for the removal and disposal of hopper dredge material. Work will be performed in Venice, Louisiana, with an estimated completion date of April 7, 2026. Fiscal 2025 civil operation and maintenance funds in the amount of $27.9 million were obligated at the time of the award.

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Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.78 | Price Target: $1.05)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Updating Our Sum-of-the-Parts Valuation; Increasing PT to US$1.05 or C$1.45
Rating: OUTPERFORM

New Craigmont mining lease extensions. Nicola Mining Inc. (OTCQB: HUSIF, TSX.V: NIM) secured a five-year extension for six mining leases at its New Craigmont Property from the Ministry of Mining and Critical Minerals. The New Craigmont property encompasses over 10,800 hectares and is adjacent to Teck Resources Limited’s (NYSE: TECK, TSX: TECK.A and TECK.B) Highland Valley Copper Mine, the largest copper mine in Canada. On June 1, Nicola commenced a 4,000-to-5,000-meter diamond drill program at the New Craigmont project. The mining lease extension ensures continuity through the project’s lifecycle.

Shipments of gold concentrate. Earlier this month, Nicola announced that it had commenced shipping gold concentrate via a partnership with Talisker Resources Ltd. (TSX: TSK, OTCQX: TSKFF). Under a Mining, Milling, and Smelting Agreement, the parties sold 707 ounces of gold in August, generating gross proceeds of approximately US$2.3 million. Production benefited from upgrades to the Merritt Mill, including the installation of a large concentrator that optimized free gold recovery.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, September 17, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – Activist Shareholder Calls for Strategic Review
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – A Renewal and Two New Contracts
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Continuing to Lighten
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)/OUTPERFORM – A Closer Look Supports Our Favorable Outlook

Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$1.94 | Price Target: $4)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Activist Shareholder Calls for Strategic Review
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Call For A Review. In an amended Schedule 13D filing, investor Lakeview Opportunity Fund has communicated its views on the Company to the CVG management and Board on opportunities for value creation, including through a review process that explores strategic alternatives, including a sale of the Company.

Who Is Lakeview? With Managing Partner Ari Levy, Lakeview is a concentrated and opportunistic multi-strategy fund. The Fund focuses on underfollowed or ignored market areas, such as small and mid-cap value equities, niche Wall Street vehicles, options, and selective shareholder activism, where Lakeview helps companies, generally trading at significant discounts to private market value, unlock shareholder value.

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The GEO Group (GEO/$22.04 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Renewal and Two New Contracts
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Contracts. The  Florida Department of Corrections has issued Notices of Intent to Award three managed-only contracts to GEO for the assumption of management and support services at the 985-bed Bay Correctional and Rehabilitation Facility and the 1,884-bed Graceville Correctional and Rehabilitation Facility and for the continuation of management and support services at the 985-bed Moore Haven Correctional and Rehabilitation Facility.

Details. The three contracts are expected to have an initial term of three years, effective  July 1, 2026, with unlimited two-year renewal option periods. On a combined basis, the three contracts are expected to generate approximately  $130 million in annualized revenues, including approximately  $100 million in new incremental annualized revenues for GEO. While the new contracts will not begin until next year, the new awards reflect GEO’s ability to provide the services demanded by its government partners, in our view.

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V2X (VVX/$56.62 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Continuing to Lighten
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Another Sale. Private-equity firm American Industrial Partners (AIP), through its Vertex Aerospace subsidiary, sold another 1.7 million VVX shares on September 11th. According to the amended 13D filing, the shares were sold at a price of $52.203 per share through a Rule 144 sale. As we have stated in the past, we continue to expect AIP to sell off its V2X holding over time.

Ownership. Following the most recent share sale, AIP’s ownership is now 8,467,286 VVX shares, representing 26.9% of the outstanding common of V2X. This is down from the 18,591,866 VVX shares, or 61.1% of the then outstanding common, held by AIP just after the Vectrus/Vertex merger in July 2022.

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Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE/$2.63 | Price Target: $4.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
A Closer Look Supports Our Favorable Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Solid Q2 Results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $73.2 million, modestly beating our estimate of $72.0 million, and adj. EBITDA of $6.7 million, which strongly outperformed our estimate of $0.85 million by 685%. The strong adj. EBITDA was largely driven by management’s ability to execute on its tariff mitigation strategies, resulting in an improved gross profit margin.

Mitigating tariff impacts. Importantly, the company’s gross profit margin increased 300 basis points over the prior year period. The improvement was driven by lower product costing and higher pricing, contributing a 340 basis point improvement, as well as less discounting, which resulted in a 210 basis point improvement. However, the positive margin contributions were softened by tariff and freight impacts of 170 basis points and 100 basis points, respectively.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, September 16, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – Acquisition Builds The Pipeline With Anticoagulants In Development

Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$13.37 | Price Target: $45)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Acquisition Builds The Pipeline With Anticoagulants In Development
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Cadrenal Acquires Complimentary Cardiovascular Products. Cadrenal announced that it has acquired the anti-coagulant assets of eXlthera Pharmaceuticals. The products include frunexian, a Pre-Phase-2 anti-coagulant drug that inhibits a different step in the coagulation cascade from tecarfarin. Frunexian is in development for different indications and could extend Cadrenal’s product line to additional indications that are not served by current drugs. The acquisition also includes an oral formulation and other research-stage molecules.

Frunexian Has Several Distinguishing Features. The lead product from eXlthera is frunexian, a Factor XIa inhibitor. Most of the DOAC (direct-acting oral anticoagulant) class target Factor Xa and have been developed for long-term use on an outpatient basis. In contrast, frunexian targets Factor XIa, a different component of the coagulation cascade.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, September 15, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Jonathan P
Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc. (GLSI)/OUTPERFORM – Fast Track Designation Gives Benefits Now And In The Future
Metals & Mining (Metals & Mining) – Insights from the Precious Metals Summit

Euroseas (ESEA/$63.97 | Price Target: $71)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Jonathan P
Rating: OUTPERFORM

New time charter contract. Euroseas Ltd. announced a new time charter for the M/V Jonathan P at a gross daily rate of $25,000 for a minimum of 11 months, with an option to extend to a maximum of 12 months at the charterer’s option. The charter will commence on November 17th.

Attractive rate and improved charter coverage. The new contract is in direct continuation of the current charter and represents a $5,000 per day increase. It is expected to contribute approximately $5.7 million in EBITDA over the minimum contract period and raise Euroseas’ charter coverage to 100% for the remainder of 2025 and 70% for 2026.

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Greenwich LifeSciences, Inc. (GLSI/$11.23 | Price Target: $45)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Fast Track Designation Gives Benefits Now And In The Future
Rating: OUTPERFORM

GLSI-100 Received Fast Track Designation. Greenwich LifeSciences announced that GLSI-100 has received Fast Track designation from the FDA. In the near term, this designation allows GLSI increased communications and more FDA meetings regarding regulatory requirements for its clinical trial data and use of biomarkers. Once the FLAMINGO-01 trial is completed, GLSI will be eligible to apply for Accelerated Approval and Priority Review, potentially shortening the time to market.

The Designation Mirrors The Trial Entry Criteria. GLSI-100 has received Fast Track Designation from the FDA for the treatment of “patients with HLA-A*02 genotype and HER2-positive breast cancer who have completed treatment with standard of care HER2/neu targeted therapy to improve invasive breast cancer free survival…” This includes the clinical trial entry criteria and endpoints for the current double-blind arms of the trial.

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Metals & Mining
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Insights from the Precious Metals Summit

Precious Metals Summit. Noble Capital Markets was well represented at The Precious Metals Summit on September 9-12at the Beaver Creek Resort in Colorado. The conference attracted 1,700 registrants compared to approximately 1,200 in 2024 and included a broad spectrum of mining companies and institutional investors. Collectively, Noble had private meetings with over 70 company management teams during the invitation-only event.

Relative performance. Year-to-date through September 12,mining companies (as measured by the XME) appreciated 51.2% compared to a gain of 11.9% for the S&P 500 index. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) and Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) ETFs were up 105.7% and 110.6%, respectively. Platinum, silver, and gold futures prices have gained 55.0%, 46.5%, and 39.6%, respectively, while copper, lead, and nickel increased 15.5%, 3.4% and 0.4%. Zinc declined 1.0%. Precious metals have led the charge as Central Banks around the world have added to global gold reserves, along with greater portfolio allocations among investors to precious metals as a hedge against rising inflation, a depreciating U.S. dollar, concerns about government debt, and increased geopolitical uncertainty. Moreover, there has been a desire among some nations to diversify away from the U.S. dollar as the benchmark reserve currency. Gold has become the global asset of choice to preserve value amid declining confidence in fiat currencies and an era of global monetary, geopolitical, and fiscal uncertainty.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, September 12, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Nutriband (NTRB)/OUTPERFORM – Nutriband Reports 2Q26 With Product Progress
SEGG Media Corporation (SEGG)/OUTPERFORM – Leveraging Strong Brands As A Foundation For Growth

Nutriband (NTRB/$6.93 | Price Target: $15)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Nutriband Reports 2Q26 With Product Progress
Rating: OUTPERFORM

AVERSA Fentanyl Is Moving Forward. Nutriband reported results from 2Q26, ended July 31, 2025, with a loss of $2.12 per share. Revenues for 2Q26 were $0.6 million compared with $0.4 million in 2Q25. The increase was attributed to the expansion of contract manufacturing services in the Pocono Pharma division that produces kinesiology tape. Net loss was $2.0 million before Preferred Dividends of $21.8 million, bringing Net Loss Available To Shareholders to $23.8 million. Cash at the end of the quarter was $6.9 million.

Meeting With The FDA Later In September. The company has scheduled a meeting with the FDA on September 18, 2025, to discuss the upcoming Phase 1 clinical trial for AVERSA Fentanyl. This is a Type C Meeting, requested by the company to discuss product development. The meeting agenda includes the CMC (Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Controls) and other aspects of the Investigational New Drug Application (IND) using the 505(b)(2) route of regulatory approval.

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SEGG Media Corporation (SEGG/$5.63 | Price Target: $20)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Leveraging Strong Brands As A Foundation For Growth
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Initiation of coverage with Outperform rating and $20 price target. We are initiating coverage on SEGG Media (NASDAQ: SEGG) with an Outperform rating and $20 target. The company is a development-stage operator of international sports and gaming businesses, anchored by valuable brand assets including Sports.com, Lottery.com, TicketStub.com, and Concerts.com.

Developmental stage. Formed out of Lottery.com’s collapse, SEGG has been reconstituted under new leadership with a defined focus on leveraging globally recognized brands. Management is pursuing an asset-light model combining digital platforms, sports media rights, and consumer venues. We believe this strategy positions SEGG to re-establish credibility and execute a compelling growth plan.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, September 11, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – Initiated Debt Refinancing
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)/OUTPERFORM – Delivered A Strong Quarter

Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$9.6 | Price Target: $17.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Initiated Debt Refinancing
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Strategic update. On September 10, the company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Kingpin Intermediate Holdings LLC initiated a private offering of  $700 million in new senior secured notes, due in 2032. Concurrently, the company launched a refinancing of its corporate term loan and revolving credit facility. The company expects the initial amount of the refinanced term loan and revolving credit facility to be $1 billion and $400 million, respectively. 

Use of capital. Importantly, the net proceeds from the new debt offering and the refinanced credit facilities are earmarked for retiring the company’s existing term loan, revolving credit facility, and bridge loan, which was used to acquire 58 real estate assets in July. Furthermore, the remaining proceeds will be used to fund the company’s strategic initiatives.

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Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE/$1.66 | Price Target: $4.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Delivered A Strong Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Solid Q2 Results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $73.2 million, modestly beating our estimate of $72.0 million, and adj. EBITDA of $6.7 million, which strongly outperformed our estimate of $0.85 million by 685%, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 Results. The strong adj. EBITDA was largely driven by management’s ability to execute on its tariff mitigation strategies, resulting in an improved gross profit margin.

Mitigating tariff impacts. Importantly, the company’s gross profit margin increased 300 basis points over the prior year period. The improvement was driven by lower product costing and higher pricing, contributing a 340 basis point improvement, as well as less discounting, which resulted in a 210 basis point improvement. However, the positive margin contributions were softened by tariff and freight impacts of 170 basis points and 100 basis points, respectively.

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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Companies contained in today’s report:

Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE)/OUTPERFORM – Positioned To End YE2025 With Strong Products and Pipeline Development

Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE/$7.89 | Price Target: $20)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Positioned To End YE2025 With Strong Products and Pipeline Development
Rating: OUTPERFORM

Gyre Has Made Strong YTD Progress. Gyre has made significant progress during the first three quarters of FY2025 that we believe positions the company for a strong year-end. These developments include continued sales growth from two products introduced in 1H25, an application for Hydronidone approval in China, and the start of a Phase 2 clinical trial for Hydronidone in the US. The company also announced the appointment of Dr. Han Ying as the new CEO, a member of the Board of Directors since January 2025.

Hydronidone Data Showed Efficacy and Proof of Concept. The pivotal Phase 3 trial testing Hydronidone in Chronic Hepatitis B-associated fibrosis has met its primary endpoint of fibrosis regression. The study was conducted in China, and an application for approval by the NMPA (the Chinese regulatory authority) is planned for 3Q2025. Hydronidone has received Breakthrough Therapy Designation, allowing for accelerated review. We expect approval in 2H2026, followed by launch in FY2027.

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The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the second time this year on Wednesday, continuing its effort to stabilize the labor market amid rising unemployment concerns and an ongoing government data blackout.

Policymakers voted to reduce the benchmark federal funds rate by another quarter percentage point, setting a new range between 3.75% and 4% — the lowest level in three years. The move reflects the Fed’s cautious approach to balancing slowing job growth, stubborn inflation, and a murky economic outlook made worse by the shutdown of key government agencies.

For the first time in modern history, the Fed made a rate decision without access to a full month of official employment and inflation data. The lack of reliable government reports has complicated policymakers’ efforts to gauge the true health of the U.S. economy, particularly as layoffs from major employers like Amazon and Target signal that labor market conditions may be weakening.

The central bank began easing policy last month after private-sector data showed hiring had slowed to its weakest pace since 2010. Recent updates from payroll processors have indicated a slight rebound in hiring, though overall employment growth remains tepid. Without consistent data, the Fed is navigating largely in the dark, weighing the need to support jobs while keeping inflation contained.

Inflation and Tariffs Create Conflicting Signals

Inflation has cooled modestly in recent months, according to private data, but underlying price pressures remain. Businesses have managed to absorb higher costs tied to new tariffs rather than pass them directly to consumers, though economists warn that could change if trade tensions persist.

President Trump’s tariff policies, alongside shifting trade dynamics with China, continue to inject volatility into markets. The upcoming meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea could shape the trajectory of global trade and influence inflation expectations heading into 2026.

Despite these uncertainties, the Fed is signaling that its priority remains preventing a sharp rise in unemployment. The central bank’s rate cuts are designed to lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, encourage investment, and keep economic momentum intact as trade and political risks intensify.

In a separate announcement, the Fed confirmed that its three-year effort to reduce the size of its balance sheet will conclude by December 1. The portfolio — which peaked near $9 trillion in 2022 after the pandemic-era stimulus — has been trimmed to roughly $6.6 trillion, a level officials now view as closer to normal.

The move signals confidence that the financial system no longer requires extraordinary liquidity support, even as rate cuts continue.

For investors, the Fed’s latest cut underscores a cautious but proactive stance in navigating a fragile economic environment. Lower interest rates generally benefit equities, particularly small-cap stocks, which tend to be more sensitive to borrowing costs and domestic growth trends.

If the easing cycle continues, small-cap companies could see improved access to capital and renewed investor interest, especially in sectors like industrials, consumer goods, and technology — areas that often rebound first when monetary policy shifts dovish.

Still, with limited visibility into key economic indicators, volatility is likely to remain elevated in the weeks ahead. Market participants will be watching closely for updates on inflation, trade policy, and the labor market once government reporting resumes.

Eli Lilly and Company’s agreement to acquire Adverum Biotechnologies marks another major move in the race to dominate the emerging field of genetic medicine. The deal, announced Friday, highlights the pharmaceutical giant’s commitment to expanding its gene therapy portfolio and targeting treatments that address chronic, age-related diseases — a market expected to grow rapidly over the next decade.

Under the terms of the agreement, Lilly will acquire all outstanding shares of Adverum for $3.56 per share in cash, plus a contingent value right (CVR) worth up to an additional $8.91 per share, depending on key regulatory and sales milestones. This brings the potential total value of the transaction to $12.47 per share. The deal is expected to close by the fourth quarter of 2025, pending shareholder and regulatory approval.

Adverum’s leading asset, Ixo-vec, is a one-time intravitreal gene therapy in Phase 3 development for wet age-related macular degeneration (wAMD) — a progressive retinal condition that affects millions of older adults worldwide. The therapy aims to reduce the need for repeated eye injections by delivering long-term aflibercept production directly within the eye. If successful, Ixo-vec could reshape the standard of care for patients who currently rely on frequent treatments to preserve vision.

The acquisition aligns with Lilly’s broader strategy of integrating genetic medicine technologies into its drug discovery pipeline. The company has already made significant investments in obesity, diabetes, and Alzheimer’s research, and sees gene therapy as a natural extension of that work. By adding Adverum’s proprietary intravitreal delivery platform and its promising ocular gene therapy programs, Lilly gains both innovation and market access in a field expected to see accelerating demand.

From a financial standpoint, the structure of the deal — combining upfront cash with milestone-based CVRs — reflects a balanced approach to managing risk while still rewarding Adverum shareholders if Ixo-vec achieves commercial success. The program’s FDA Fast Track and RMAT designations, as well as PRIME status from the European Medicines Agency, signal strong regulatory support and potential for expedited approval.

The move also underscores a broader trend across the biotech industry: large-cap pharmaceutical companies are increasingly acquiring smaller clinical-stage firms to secure access to cutting-edge gene therapy pipelines. For small-cap investors, this represents an important theme — as emerging biotech companies with late-stage assets become prime takeover targets in the current market cycle.

Gene therapy remains one of the most promising and competitive frontiers in modern medicine. While challenges such as manufacturing scale and long-term efficacy remain, the science continues to mature rapidly. Lilly’s acquisition of Adverum not only validates the commercial potential of ocular gene therapies but also signals continued confidence in the sector’s long-term growth trajectory.

If Ixo-vec succeeds, it could open the door to broader applications of gene therapy across multiple chronic conditions — reinforcing the idea that “one and done” treatments may soon become reality for millions of patients worldwide.

The Federal Reserve’s latest signal toward additional rate cuts has broad implications for equity markets, but small-cap stocks stand to benefit most prominently. With an estimated $7 trillion in cash and cash-equivalents—often referred to as “dry powder”—sitting on the sidelines, investors are preparing to put capital to work. Much of this capital is housed within private equity funds, institutional investors, and large asset managers, which are all seeking stronger returns as yields on cash and Treasuries decline in a falling-rate environment.

When interest rates fall, sitting on cash becomes less attractive. Investors, pressed to generate higher ROI, begin reallocating money into equities, private deals, and higher-growth opportunities. For small-cap companies, this creates a powerful tailwind. Not only do they benefit from increased investor flows, but they also operate with greater sensitivity to financing conditions. Lower borrowing costs can dramatically improve the profitability outlook for smaller firms, which often rely more heavily on debt and capital markets to fund growth compared to large caps.

M&A Activity and Its Ripple Effects

A large portion of sidelined capital resides within private equity funds, which thrive in environments where acquisition financing is cheaper. Rate cuts reduce the cost of leverage, making buyouts more attractive. The $7 trillion pool of global dry powder is a firehose of liquidity ready to be deployed into merger-and-acquisition deals.

This matters for small caps because acquisition premiums drive valuations higher across the board. As private equity firms, corporations, and even larger small-cap peers target acquisitions, multiples expand—not just for the companies being acquired, but for entire industries as investors speculate on who might be next. This “M&A halo effect” has historically been a significant driver of outperformance in the small-cap space.

Why the Russell 2000 Benefits Disproportionately

The Russell 2000, the most widely watched U.S. small-cap index, tends to be more cyclical and more domestic-focused than large-cap benchmarks. Rate-sensitive sectors such as financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary make up a larger share of its composition. This means the Russell 2000 is positioned to benefit more directly from looser monetary policy than the mega-cap dominated S&P 500 or Nasdaq.

Moreover, small-cap valuations remain historically discounted relative to large caps. The valuation gap, widened after years of tech-driven outperformance at the top end of the market, could narrow sharply as investors re-risk portfolios in search of higher growth potential. History shows that during periods of monetary easing, small caps have often outperformed, fueled by capital inflows, improved earnings prospects, and heightened M&A activity.

The Bottom Line

The confluence of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a massive capital overhang waiting to be deployed, and the natural sensitivity of small-cap companies to interest rate changes sets the stage for a potential rally in the Russell 2000 and broader small-cap landscape. Lower yields make cash less productive, driving investors toward equities. Private equity firms flush with capital will likely target acquisitions, boosting market-wide valuations. And small-cap companies, historically more nimble and growth-oriented, stand to capture the bulk of these benefits.

For investors focused on the small-cap arena, the coming months may present an exceptional entry point. The combination of monetary easing and $7 trillion in sidelined capital seeking higher returns could ignite the small-cap rally that many have been waiting for.

Tamboran Resources Corporation (NYSE: TBN, ASX: TBN) has agreed to buy Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSXV: FO, AIM: FOG) in a transaction that will combine roughly 2.9 million net prospective acres across the Beetaloo Basin and create a pro-forma company with a market capitalization above US$500 million. The deal, structured as a Plan of Arrangement, will see Tamboran issue about 6.54 million Tamboran shares and pay US$23.7 million in cash for Falcon’s subsidiaries. Falcon shareholders are expected to own about 26.8% of the enlarged business upon closing, which is targeted for the first quarter of 2026 subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals.

Strategically, the acquisition strengthens Tamboran’s working interest in the Phase 2 Development Area to roughly 80.6% ahead of an ongoing farmout process. The transaction also aligns Tamboran more closely with Daly Waters Energy across key EPs and brings a larger contiguous footprint across the Beetaloo depocenter. On a per-acre basis, the deal values Falcon’s assets at roughly US$169 per acre — slightly below Tamboran’s implied acreage valuation — making the transaction accretive on a headline basis.

What makes the tie-up significant for the wider industry is scale. Unconventional gas projects are capital intensive and require sizeable, contiguous acreage to attract majors and strategic farm-in partners. By consolidating acreage and increasing operator control over Phase 2, Tamboran is positioning itself to negotiate more favorable farmout terms, accelerate pilot development, and de-risk timelines for potential midstream and liquefaction projects, including the company’s proposed NTLNG concept at Middle Arm.

The move reflects broader sector trends in Australia and global upstream markets. As investors and partners demand clearer development pathways and lower execution risk, consolidation has become a common strategy: fewer operators with larger positions can pool technical expertise, reduce unit costs, and present more bankable project packages to capital providers. That dynamic is especially relevant in basins like Beetaloo where regulatory scrutiny, infrastructure needs and environmental permitting add layers of complexity that favor scale and experienced operators.

The acquisition also has ripple effects for service providers, regional supply chains and local communities. Larger, multi-phase development programs typically generate sustained demand for drilling services, completions crews, pipelines and processing contractors — supporting jobs and local procurement over longer horizons than single-well campaigns. Conversely, the sector remains sensitive to commodity price swings and permitting timelines; successful farmouts and access to capital remain critical near-term catalysts.

From a capital markets perspective, the consolidation could enhance Tamboran’s visibility with institutional investors and potential partners by simplifying ownership of the basin’s core acreage. That said, the deal requires customary approvals — including court and shareholder votes and Australian regulatory consents — and outcomes of the farmout process will be key to demonstrating commercial viability and securing further investment.

In short, the Tamboran-Falcon combination is more than a portfolio tweak: it is a strategic consolidation aimed at creating the scale and operating leverage needed to move the Beetaloo from pilot stage toward commercial development. For market watchers, the next milestones to monitor are the farmout announcements, regulatory clearances, and any near-term pilot results that will determine whether the enlarged Tamboran can translate acreage control into funded development.

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Activist Investor. Randian Capital, part of the “retail activist” group behind the sharp rise in Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) stock from less than a $1 mid-summer to around $8.20 today, released on social media platform X a turnaround proposal for The ONE Group. In a nutshell, the plan consists of Refocus the Portfolio, Revitalize the Brand, Strengthen Operations, and Capital Discipline & Growth. Radian sees a path to a $10+ stock over the next 12-18 months. STKS shares rose over 26% yesterday on the news.

Refocus & Revitalize. Randian calls for ONE Group to refocus solely on its Benihana concept, selling off all other concepts. The activist investor believes the STK concept alone could be worth more than the current market cap. Randian suggests rebranding as Benihana Group and changing the stock symbol. Revitalization by elevating the dining experience and engaging with cultural icons, among other changes.

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Integral Ad Science (Nasdaq: IAS), a global leader in media measurement and optimization, announced Wednesday that it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by Novacap, a North American private equity firm, in a transaction valued at approximately $1.9 billion.

Under the deal, Novacap will purchase all outstanding shares of IAS for $10.30 per share in cash, representing a roughly 22% premium over the company’s closing price on September 23. The agreement, which has been unanimously approved by IAS’s board of directors, is expected to close before the end of 2025, pending regulatory approvals.

Once finalized, IAS will become a privately held company and its shares will no longer trade on public markets. Current shareholder Vista Equity Partners, which played a significant role in expanding IAS’s AI-powered platform and customer base, will exit its investment upon completion of the deal.

For IAS, the acquisition represents a chance to accelerate its growth and innovation strategy in digital media quality. CEO Lisa Utzschneider highlighted the move as a milestone that will provide the company with the resources and flexibility to expand its AI-first measurement and optimization platform.

“Our mission has always been to set the global benchmark for trust and transparency in digital media quality,” Utzschneider said in a statement. “With Novacap’s support, we’ll be able to further scale our platform and deliver even more value to advertisers, publishers, and media partners.”

Novacap, which manages more than $10 billion in assets, sees IAS as a category leader with significant potential. Samuel Nasso, a partner at the firm, said Novacap plans to work closely with IAS leadership to accelerate innovation and strengthen its solutions for global brands and publishers.

The transaction is not subject to any financing conditions, and a majority of IAS shareholders have already approved the deal through written consent. Financial advisory roles were split, with Jefferies advising IAS and Evercore advising Novacap. Legal counsel was provided by Kirkland & Ellis for IAS and Willkie Farr & Gallagher for Novacap.

Founded in 2009, IAS has established itself as a trusted player in the digital advertising ecosystem, providing data and tools to ensure ads are viewable, brand-safe, and optimized for performance. By joining forces with Novacap, the company is expected to sharpen its competitive edge and continue expanding its role as a benchmark for media transparency in the rapidly evolving adtech landscape.

If the transaction closes on schedule, IAS will continue operating under its existing name and brand while shifting into private ownership under Novacap.

U.S. equities extended their gains on Thursday, with the Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks taking center stage as investors embraced the Federal Reserve’s latest policy shift. The move comes just a day after the central bank announced its first interest-rate cut of 2025, a decision that has sparked optimism about economic growth and reignited appetite for smaller, more domestically focused companies.

The Russell 2000 soared more than 2% to an intraday record, positioning itself for its first all-time closing high since November 2021. This surge has placed the index firmly ahead of its large-cap peers, with the S&P 500 climbing 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite adding 1.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 120 points, or 0.3%.

For small-cap investors, the Fed’s move signals a potential turning point. Unlike cash-rich technology giants that can weather higher borrowing costs, small- and mid-cap companies often rely heavily on external financing to support operations and growth. Lower interest rates reduce that burden, freeing up capital for expansion and making smaller firms more attractive to investors.

Beyond the macroeconomic boost, market sentiment has improved notably since the Fed’s policy shift. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported a surge in bullish sentiment this week, with 41.7% of respondents now optimistic on the short-term outlook for stocks, up sharply from 28% the previous week. While bearish views remain elevated, the optimism highlights growing confidence that the Fed’s pivot will continue to lift equities.

The Russell’s outperformance is also being fueled by a broadening of market participation. For much of the past year, the rally in U.S. equities has been concentrated in mega-cap technology names driven by artificial intelligence enthusiasm. The rate cut has shifted attention to smaller companies that had largely lagged during the high-rate environment. With valuations still relatively attractive compared to large-cap counterparts, the Russell’s resurgence is attracting both institutional and retail inflows.

Meanwhile, the broader market rally was supported by strength in both traditional and technology sectors. Notably, Intel surged more than 25% after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment to co-develop chips for data centers and PCs, sending Nvidia shares up more than 3%. While big tech continues to contribute, the spotlight remains firmly on the Russell’s record-setting move.

Looking ahead, investors will closely watch whether the Fed follows through with its projection of two additional rate cuts before year-end. Continued monetary easing could further unlock momentum for small-cap stocks, though analysts caution that too much stimulus could risk overheating both markets and the broader economy.

For now, however, the Russell 2000 has emerged as the clear winner of the Fed’s rate shift—marking a powerful comeback for small-cap investors after nearly four years without a record high.