Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, May 29, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – A Pivotal Milestone; Reports 1Q25 Results
SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – Joining the Russell
Superior Group of Companies (SGC)/OUTPERFORM – An Investment Opportunity In Keeping With Its Name
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.65)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Pivotal Milestone; Reports 1Q25 Results
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Milestone Quarter. MustGrow’s 1Q25 was a pivotal milestone in the Company’s evolution, with the Company recording its first full quarter since the NexusBioAg acquisition at the end of 2024. MustGrow reported significant sales revenue for the first time, although higher expenses resulting from the acquisition drove a higher net loss.
1Q25 Results. Revenue totaled $3.78 million (all figures are Canadian $), compared to our $2.6 million estimate and zero in the year ago quarter. Gross margin was 14.3%, below our estimated 19.2%. MustGrow recorded a net loss of $1.6 million, or a loss of $0.03/sh, versus our estimate of a loss of $570,000, or a loss of $0.01/sh. In 1Q24, the Company reported a loss of $1.0 million, or a loss of $0.02/sh.
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SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.32 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Joining the Russell
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Joining the Russell Indices. FTSE Russell recently included the company in its preliminary additions to the Russell 2000 and broader Russell 3000 indices as part of its annual reconstitution. The inclusion will become effective at market open on June 27, offering a notable validation milestone for the company.
An important milestone. We believe this development could be a meaningful catalyst for SKYX. In our view, inclusion in the Russell indices will drive greater visibility among institutional investors and has the potential to increase average daily trading volume in the shares, supporting improved liquidity and broader shareholder participation.
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Superior Group of Companies (SGC/$9.66 | Price Target: $16)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
An Investment Opportunity In Keeping With Its Name
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating Coverage with Outperform rating and $16 price target. Our favorable rating is based on a company in sectors that should grow faster than the US economy, a seasoned, successful management team, a capable balance sheet positioned to support acquisition fueled growth, a history of return of capital to shareholders and a compelling stock valuation.
Favorable industry trends. The company operates in three distinct sectors, healthcare apparel, branded products and call centers. Each segment has favorable, above-average organic growth characteristics, is profitable, and has compelling acquisition target opportunities for enhanced long-term revenue and cash flow growth.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, May 28, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Graham (GHM)/OUTPERFORM – Awarded Large Follow-on Contract
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Better-than-Expected First Quarter Results
Graham (GHM/$40.77 | Price Target: $52)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Awarded Large Follow-on Contract
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Award. Yesterday, Graham announced that its Barber-Nichols subsidiary was awarded a $136.5 million follow-on contract to support the U.S. Navy’s Virginia Class Submarine program. This new award strengthens Graham’s position as a critical supplier to the U.S. Navy’s undersea programs.
Details. The contract period of performance extends from April 2025 through February 2034. Graham recognized approximately $50 million in backlog from the contract during the fourth quarter of the fiscal year ended March 31, 2025 to procure long-lead-time materials. As a reminder, the backlog at the end of the fiscal third quarter totaled $384.7 million, just below a record high.
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Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$6.31 | Price Target: $9.25)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Better-than-Expected First Quarter Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter results. Seanergy reported first-quarter net revenues of $24.2 million, slightly ahead of our estimate of $23.5 million, due to a higher-than-expected time charter equivalent (TCE) rate. Adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share (EPS) were $8.0 million and a loss of $0.27, respectively, compared to our estimates of $6.1 million and a loss of $0.38. The better-than-anticipated results are reflective of higher revenues as well as lower costs due to savings in general and administrative expenses.
Updating estimates. We are increasing our 2025 revenue estimates to $142.9 million from $142.5 million. Additionally, we are raising our adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $70.5 million and $0.74, respectively, up from $68.1 million and $0.59. These revisions are reflective of management’s guidance of better-than-expected TCE rates and fewer dry-docking days, resulting in higher operating days and lower expenses.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, May 27, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Comstock Achieves a Transformative Milestone
Comstock (LODE/$3.05)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Comstock Achieves a Transformative Milestone
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Annual general meeting. Comstock Inc. recently hosted its virtual annual general meeting. Shareholders voted to: 1) elect seven named nominees to the Board of Directors for the ensuing year or, if earlier, until their successors are duly elected and qualified, 2) to ratify the appointment of Assure CPA, LLC as the company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, and 3) to approve a non-binding advisory resolution for the compensation of named executive officers.
Separation of Comstock Fuels. Comstock Inc. officially separated and contributed the assets that formerly comprised Comstock’s fuels segment into Bioleum Corporation, a newly formed company that will operate independently with the objective of becoming a publicly traded company.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, May 23, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – Strong Start to the Year
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – Delivers Encouraging Q1 Results
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.26 | Price Target: $2.3)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Strong Start to the Year
Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter financial results. Hemisphere generated first quarter oil and gas revenue of C$27.3 million, an increase of 30.4% year-over-year, and above our estimate of C$24.4 million. Net income amounted to C$8.9 million or C$0.09 per share compared to C$6.8 million or C$0.07 per share during the prior year period and our estimates of C$8.2 million or C$0.08 per share. The strong earnings were reflective of a 22.3% year-over-year increase in production to 3,833 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) from 3,133 boe/d, along with better-than-expected commodity pricing due to the company’s strategic hedging. Adjusted funds flow (AFF) amounted to C$12.7 million or C$0.13 per diluted share compared to C$10.1 million or C$0.10 per diluted share during the prior year period. We had forecasted AFF of C$11.2 million.
Updating estimates. Based on first quarter results and management’s production guidance of 3,800 boe/d for the second quarter, we are raising our 2025 revenue estimates to C$98.2 million from C$94.8 million. We have modestly increased our operating expense estimate to C$38.4 million from C$37.6 million. Additionally, we are raising our net income and earnings per share (EPS) estimates to C$31.3 million and C$0.30, from C$30.3 million and C$0.29. We expect full year 2025 AFF of C$44.7 million, up from our previous estimate of C$43.0 million.
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QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.16 | Price Target: $0.2)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Delivers Encouraging Q1 Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q1 Results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $4.8 million, which increased 3% over the prior year period, and was in line with our estimate of $4.8 million. Notably, revenue in Q1 was highest amount of quarterly revenue in the company’s history. Moreover, the company recorded adj. EBITDA of $0.4 million in Q1, which was moderately lower than our estimate of $0.5 million, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q1 Results.
Q1 adj. EBITDA impact. Notably, adj. EBITDA in Q1 was impacted by the company capitalizing less development costs than in prior quarters, leading to more development costs expensed in Q1. Importantly, the increase in development costs that were expensed did not have an impact on cashflow. Furthermore, the company highlighted that it will be expensing development costs at a similar rate to Q1, which was higher than in previous quarters, moving forward.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, May 21, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF)/OUTPERFORM – Right Time, Right Place, Right Project
Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF/$0.35 | Price Target: $2.30)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Right Time, Right Place, Right Project
RATING: OUTPERFORM
Investor webinar. Century Lithium recently discussed the Angel Island Lithium project during
an insightful investor webinar. Key highlights included: 1) Angel Island is an advanced project
with one of the largest lithium deposits in the United States, 2) the project employs a proven
patent-pending process for chloride leaching, along with direct lithium extraction to produce
lithium carbonate, 3) Century has a secured a 1,770 acre-feet per year water rights permit, and
4) the company has demonstrated its ability to consistently produce battery grade lithium
carbonate on-site at its pilot plant in Amargosa Valley, Nevada.
Nearing completion of a Plan of Operations. Management expects to submit a Plan of
Operations to the Bureau of Land Management within the next few months, which would
enable the company to initiate the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) permitting
process. We anticipate the NEPA permitting process could take between 12 and 24 months,
depending on whether an environmental assessment or environmental impact statement is
required. An environmental impact statement generally takes longer.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, May 20, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – There Is A Path Forward
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.53)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
There Is A Path Forward
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Taking the necessary steps to remain listed. The company faces a two pronged battle to remain listed on the NASDAQ. On one front, it must address the shareholder equity deficiency. And, on the other front, it must address the stock price, which is trading below $1. We view the issues separately and believe that the company has a strategy to remain listed on both fronts.
Addressing the shareholder deficit. The company has a program to raise capital through an equity reserve facility to address its shareholder deficit issue to comply with a NASDAQ requirement. To date, the company has raised $7 million on its $20 million facility. The company could raise even more capital when it becomes S3 eligible at the end of Summer. Currently, the company is $23 million short of turning shareholder equity positive.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, May 19, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – Reports 1Q25 Results
Cocrystal Pharma (COCP)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Reported With Clinical Trial Milestone Updates
Codere Online (CDRO)/OUTPERFORM – Mexican Metrics Drive Favorable Results
Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Reported With Phase 2 Results Expected In 4Q25
GDEV (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – Off To A Strong Start
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Merritt Mill Expected to Commence Operations in June
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Another Proposed Stock Sale
Bit Digital (BTBT/$2.38 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Reports 1Q25 Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 Overview. Bit Digital’s first quarter results were affected by mark-to-market losses on digital assets and lower bitcoin mining revenue, both of which reflected industry-wide headwinds and the strategic rebalancing of the business. The Company continued to make meaningful progress in scaling the infrastructure platform and diversifying revenue streams.
1Q25 Results. Revenue of $25.1 million was down 17% y-o-y as digital asset mining revenue fell 64%, while cloud services revenue jumped 84%. We were at $24.8 million. Driven by $49.3 million of mark-to-market losses on digital assets, Bit Digital reported a net loss of $57.7 million, or $0.32/sh, compared to a loss of $11.9 million, or $0.09/sh, last year. We projected a loss of $13.1 million, or $0.07/sh.
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Cocrystal Pharma (COCP/$1.42 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
1Q25 Reported With Clinical Trial Milestone Updates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth Quarter Included New Data On Norovirus Variants. Cocrystal reported a 1Q25 loss of $2.3 million or $(0.23) per share. During the quarter the company announced Phase 1 results from its CDI-988 study in norovirus. Importantly, preclinical data showed efficacy against new norovirus variants. We believe this provides additional support to Cocrystal’s method of targeting highly-conserved viral replication enzymes to make effective drugs against both current and future variants. Cash on March 31, 2025 was $6.9 million.
CDI-988 Activity Includes New Variant Strains. CDI-988 is a protease inhibitor in development for norovirus and corona virus. CDI-988 has shown activity against multiple strains, with new preclinical data in April 2025 showing efficacy against the GII.17 and GII.4 strains that have recently been most prevalent. Results from the Phase 1 high-dose cohort in healthy subjects is expected to be announced in 2Q2025. A human challenge trial is planned for later in FY2025 to evaluate CDI-988 for treatment and prophylaxis against norovirus.
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Codere Online (CDRO/$8 | Price Target: $14)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Mexican Metrics Drive Favorable Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid start to the year. First quarter revenues increased a solid 7.5% to €57.0 million, beating our €55.0 million estimate, in spite of currency headwinds. On a constant currency basis, revenues would have increased a strong 17%. Adj. EBITDA of €1.8 million, was slightly better than our €1.4 million estimate.
Maintain full year 2025 estimates, tweaking upward 2026 estimates. Management reiterated revenue and adj. EBITDA guidance for the full year 2025. We anticipate that revenues will accelerate to the high single digits to the low double digits in the third and fourth quarter, respectively. We are tweaking upward our full year 2026 revenue and adj. EBITDA estimates on the the favorable momentum in Mexico and prospects for lower marketing spend.
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Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN/$2.87 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
1Q25 Reported With Phase 2 Results Expected In 4Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 Had Lower Expenses Than We Projected. Eledon reported a loss of $6.5 million or $(0.08) per share, including a gain of $10.1 million related to fair value of warrant liabilities. Without this one-time item, the loss would have been $16.6 million or $(0.21) per share, as Research and Development expense increased less from the previous quarters than we anticipated. We expect R&D to be relatively steady as the Phase 1b and Phase 2 BESTOW trials conclude later in FY2025. Cash on March 31, 2025, was $124.9 million.
Phase 1b Trial Data Expected Mid-Year. The Phase 1b open-label trial is testing an anti-rejection regimen using tegoprubart in kidney transplantation. We see this as important data, since the Phase 2 BESTOW trial is testing this regimen against the standard regimen with tacrolimus. Since historical data for the tacrolimus regimen has been published, we believe the Phase 1b data has some predictive value for the Phase 2 BESTROW trial.
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GDEV (GDEV/$15.61 | Price Target: $70)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Off To A Strong Start
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Q1 Results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $97.0 million and adj. EBITDA of $15.6 million, both of which easily surpassed our estimates of $87.0 million and a loss of $0.6 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q1 Results. Notably, while revenue decreased 9% from last year, adj. EBITDA was up substantially from a loss of roughly $1.0 million. The improvement in adj. EBITDA was largely driven by the company’s efficient use of marketing spend and focus on profitability.
Key operating metrics. Notably, while bookings and monthly paying users decreased by 25% and 26%, respectively, compared to the prior year period, the decrease was largely expected as the company is focused on improving the quality of gameplay and not over-monetizing its user base. For example, average bookings per paying user (ABPPU) increased from $88 in Q1’24 to $90 in Q1’25, despite a decrease in monthly paying users.
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Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.36 | Price Target: $0.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Merritt Mill Expected to Commence Operations in June
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Cash flow sources to support operations. Nicola Mining (TSX.V: NIM, OTCQB: HUSIF) is advancing its flagship New Craigmont Copper Project and owns 100% of the past-producing Treasure Mountain high-grade silver, lead, and zinc underground mine with significant exploration potential and an active mining permit. Nicola distinguishes itself by offering investors significant discovery and value creation potential through its exploration activities at New Craigmont and Treasure Mountain while generating cash flows from the Craigmont Mill, which processes ore from third parties, a sand and gravel pit, rock quarry, and ready-mix cement plant.
A modern mill to serve British Columbia. The Craigmont Mill in Merritt, British Columbia is equipped to process 200 tonnes of ore per day and is authorized for custom milling. Notably, the Merritt Mill is the sole facility in British Columbia permitted to receive and process third-party gold and silver feed from across the province. Nicola has executed Milling and Profit Share Agreements with several key partners, and a sales contract that enables global distribution of gold and silver concentrate.
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V2X (VVX/$48.02 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Another Proposed Stock Sale
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Proposed Sale. On Friday, V2X announced AIP, through Vertex Holdco, will sell an additional two million VVX shares on an underwritten basis. The underwriter will have the option to purchase an additional 300,000 shares. V2X is not selling any shares of common stock in the offering, and V2X will not receive any proceeds from the offering by Vertex Aerospace. The offering is expected to close on or about May 19, 2025, subject to customary closing conditions.
Post Sale Ownership. Following the offering, Vertex Aerospace will continue to beneficially own 12,167,286 shares, or approximately 38.4%, of V2X’s outstanding common stock after giving effect to the offering (or 11,867,286 shares, or approximately 37.4%, if the underwriter fully exercises its option to purchase additional shares).
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, May 16, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bitcoin Depot (BTM)/OUTPERFORM – Q1 Results Exceed on Revenue and Margin Strength
Zomedica (ZOMDF)/OUTPERFORM – Restructuring Begins To Bear Fruit In 1Q25
Bitcoin Depot (BTM/$2.09 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Q1 Results Exceed on Revenue and Margin Strength
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strong Q1 results. The company reported 18.5% revenue growth in Q1 to $164.2 million, better than our estimate of $151.0 million. Adj. EBITDA was $20.3 million, significantly better than our estimate of $12.8 million, on the back of strong 20% gross margins (our estimate was 17%).
Ramping in Internationally. Management highlighted that the company deployed roughly 150 kiosks in Australia to date, with approximately 150 additional kiosks ready for deployment. Moreover, the company is evaluating at least 2 additional countries for potential expansion later in 2025.
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Zomedica (ZOMDF/$0.06 | Price Target: $0.25)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Restructuring Begins To Bear Fruit In 1Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 Showed Expected Year-Over-Year Growth. Zomedica reported 1Q25 loss of $63.9 million or $(0.07) per share, including an Impairment Expense of $55.8 million related to the company’s lower market capitalization and stock price. Excluding this charge, Net Loss would have been about $8.0 million. Revenues of $6.5 million showed an annual increase of 3.8% over 1Q24. As expected, there was a seasonal decline from 4Q24 due to the year-end effect on equipment spending. Cash and equivalents on March 31, 2025 were $64.6 million.
Product Mix Reflects Growing User Base. During the quarter, Consumables increased to 70% of sales with Capital Equipment at 30% of sales. This shifting product mix reflects an increasing total number of instruments in use and more assay offerings to increase utilization of each instrument. We expect the consumable segment to continue its growth as additional capital equipment sales add to the user base and introduction of new assays increases the number of tests run on each instrument.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, May 15, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – Leasing Momentum Drives Favorable Revenue Cadence
SKYX Platforms (SKYX)/OUTPERFORM – U.S. Partnership and Automation Bolster Production Agility
Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Off To A Good Start
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Reported As OLC PDUFA Date Approaches
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$12.32 | Price Target: $23)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Leasing Momentum Drives Favorable Revenue Cadence
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $5.6 million, better than our estimate of $5.1 million. An adj. EBITDA loss of $3.3 million was roughly in line with our estimate of a loss of $3.4 million.
New campuses leasing up. Notably, the company’s new campus at Phoenix Deerfield Airport (DVT) welcomed its first tenants, while Dallas (ADS) and Denver (APA) are also in the phase 1 lease-up process and should welcome tenants within weeks. The continued lease up of these three campuses is expected to be a significant driver of sequential revenue improvement throughout the balance of the year.
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SKYX Platforms (SKYX/$1.35 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
U.S. Partnership and Automation Bolster Production Agility
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $20.1 million, in line with our estimate of $20.4 million. An adj. EBITDA loss of $3.6 million was also largely in line with our loss estimate of $3.4 million.
Flexible production capabilities. In response to recent tariff-related uncertainty, the company established a partnership with U.S.-based Profab Electronics, enhancing its production flexibility. While elevated tariffs remain a policy risk, recent pauses have mitigated any near-term disruption to the company’s production partnerships in Southeast Asia.
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Snail (SNAL/$1.18 | Price Target: $4)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Off To A Good Start
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $20.1 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $3.3 million, both of which were better than estimates of $18.0 million and a loss of $4.5 million, respectively. Notably, revenue increased 42.5% over the prior year period and was driven by ARK Ultimate Mobile Edition, released in December 2024, and less deferred revenue associated with ARK: Survival Ascended sales.
Favorable outlook. The company has several releases slated for 2025, including a 10th-anniversary expansion pack for ARK: Survival Evolved, the release of Bellwright on Xbox in Q4, and new content for Ark: Ultimate Mobile Edition. Additionally, the company is releasing nine new titles in 2025, including Robots at Midnight, Honeycomb, and Echoes of Elysium, which could have breakout potential. We view the company’s efforts to drive user engagement and diversify revenue streams favorably
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Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$0.56 | Price Target: $6)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
1Q25 Reported As OLC PDUFA Date Approaches
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Counting Down To The OLC PDUFA Date. Unicycive reported a 1Q25 loss of $21.2 million or $(0.61) per share, consistent with our estimates. We continue to expect approval of OLC (oxylanthanum carbonate) around its PDUFA date of June 28, followed by its launch later in the year. The company had $19.8 million in cash on March 31, 2025.
OLC Reduces Pill Burden To Improve Compliance. OLC is Unicycive proprietary formulation of lanthanum carbonate. It was developed to reduce serum phosphate levels in renal dialysis patients with only two small pills per day. We expect OLC to compete against Fosrenol (from Shire), the approved formulation of lanthanum, that requires chewing 3 to 6 large pills each day. This difference makes patient compliance easier.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, May 14, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – Refined Model
GoHealth (GOCO)/OUTPERFORM – Diversifying Revenues With A New Offering
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – A More Sober View, But Still Positive
Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Reported With Preparations For TNX-102 SL Launch in 4Q25
DLH Holdings (DLHC/$4.83 | Price Target: $10)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Refined Model
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Refined Model. We had an opportunity to dig deep into our model with DLH management. As a result of our discussion, we revised our model. While minor, the changes do impact quarterly EPS, so we believe a model revision is instructional for investors.
Changes. We increased our D&A expense in both the third and fourth quarters to $4.25 million from our prior $4 million. In addition, we increased our fourth quarter interest expense to $3.75 million from a prior $3.5 million. We kept our tax rate at 30%. As a result of the changes, our third quarter net income and EPS declined to $350,000 and $0.02, compared to $525,000 and $0.04, respectively, and our fourth quarter declines to $350,000 and $0.02 from $700,000 and $0.05, respectively. For the full year, EPS is now $0.19 versus a prior $0.22.
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GoHealth (GOCO/$8.11 | Price Target: $25)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Diversifying Revenues With A New Offering
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $221.0 million and adj. EBITDA of $42.1 million. The results were below our estimates of $235.0 million in revenue and $49.3 million in adj. EBITDA. Notably, the results did align with management’s previous commentary that the company would execute favorable year-over-year revenue growth in the quarter (revenue was up 19% and adj. was up 56%).
Testing final expense offering. The company recently launched GoHealth Protect, which is its guaranteed acceptance life insurance (final expense) offering. For now, the company is testing out which products fit best with consumers and what the demand function looks like across the Medicare eligible population. Importantly, as the final expense business scales, we believe it could help to balance out the company’s quarterly revenue profile, which is currently concentrated around Q4 and Q1.
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Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$9.16 | Price Target: $17.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
A More Sober View, But Still Positive
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Lackluster Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $339.9 million and adj. EBITDA of $117.3 million, both of which were lower than our estimates of $360.0 million and $130 million, respectively. Notably, the soft results were largely driven by a decrease in corporate events in California and Seattle and partially offset by a high single-digit increase in food sales and stable retail and league business. While Q3 results were lackluster, we believe the company will gain momentum heading into the summer.
Pulls guidance. While the company did not provide guidance due to economic uncertainty, we believe that the company will demonstrate solid results in the coming quarters, supported by recent acquisitions, new centers, and strong sales in its Summer Season Pass program. Importantly, management highlighted its focus on expense management, with capital expenditures down 20% year to date, which is expected to continue into next year.
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Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP/$20.18 | Price Target: $70)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
1Q25 Reported With Preparations For TNX-102 SL Launch in 4Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 Reported With Product Updates. Tonix reported a 1Q25 loss of $16.8 million or $(2.84) per share, a smaller loss than we had estimated. Product sales were $2.4 million, slightly lower than the $2.6 million in 4Q24. Gross margins were 61%, an improvement over the 54% seen in 4Q24. TNX-102 SL has a PDUFA date of August 15, and preparations continue for launch in 4Q25. Cash on hand on March 31 was $131.7 million.
Anticipation Builds For TNX-102 SL PDUFA Date. We believe the two Phase 3 trials support product approval for TNX-102 SL in its fibromyalgia indication. As we have described in previous Research Notes, fibromyalgia is currently treated with a combination of pain relievers (opioid and neurological), antidepressants, and insomnia drugs. TNX-102 SL could become the first drug to relieve all major symptoms without side effects from each class of drug.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, May 13, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Highlighted By Product Launch With Phase 3 Data Expected In 2Q25
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary – Transformation Progressing
Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – A Long Digital Runway
Seanergy Maritime (SHIP)/OUTPERFORM – Updating 2025 Estimates; Rating Remains an Outperform
SelectQuote (SLQT)/OUTPERFORM – Prescription for Profit: Targets Pharmacy Margin Expansion
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Announces $100 Million Share Repurchase Program
Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE/$10.83 | Price Target: $20)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
1Q25 Highlighted By Product Launch With Phase 3 Data Expected In 2Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 Reported With Product Launch and Clinical Trial Updates. Gyre reported Net Income of $3.7 million with Net Income Attributable to Common Shareholders of $2.7 million or $(0.03) per share. Data analysis for the Phase 3 Hydronidone trial in CHB-ALF (chronic hepatitis B-associated liver fibrosis) is ongoing, with a data announcement expected during 2Q25. The company also launched avatrombopag in China and plans to launch nintedanib during 2Q25. The cash balance on March 31, 2025 was $51.3 million.
Product Sales Declined But Gross Margin Was As Expected. Product sales were $22.1 million, a decline from $27.8 million in 4Q24. The decline in sales of Etuary, its drug for ITP, was attributed to the economic conditions in China and the shift in marketing resources away from Etuary and toward the new products, nintedanib and avatrombopag. Gross Margin of 96% was as we expected despite lower product volume.
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NN (NNBR/$1.88 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Post Call Commentary – Transformation Progressing
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Transformation Plan on Track. The enterprise transformation is now roughly 70% complete. Notably, the diversification is away from the automotive industry. Of the $160 million (peak value) of new wins over the past seven quarters, one-quarter are non-auto, and about half of the pipeline is now in non-auto verticals.
New Business. NN shifted the business development focus to closing and winning immediate ramp up sales, given the softness in certain end markets. The Company now has 120 programs that are ramping up this year worth $55 million
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Saga Communications (SGA/$11.41 | Price Target: $18)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
A Long Digital Runway
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Favorable Digital growth outlook. Digital revenues are expected to accelerate to 18% revenue growth in Q2 versus 13.5% in Q1. Year to date, the company generated $5.5 million in digital revenue, surpassing the $5.0 million generated for full year 2024. We believe that the company’s Digital businesses should grow faster than industry averages.
Q1 Overview. The company reported Q1 revenue of $24.2 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $0.5 million, both of which declined over the prior year period, but were modestly better than our estimates of $23.0 million and a loss of $1.1 million. Notably, the company is focused on its blended digital growth strategy and improving profitability. We believe the company’s strategic actions are a step in the right direction for returning toward revenue and adj. EBITDA growth.
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Seanergy Maritime (SHIP/$5.98 | Price Target: $11.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Updating 2025 Estimates; Rating Remains an Outperform
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Updating first quarter estimates. We are revising our first quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $6.1 million and a loss of $0.38, respectively, from $6.0 million and a loss of $0.39. The revisions are driven by fewer dry-docking days during the quarter and an increase in operating days to 1,716 from 1,691. We also expect lower general and administrative costs, though this benefit is partially offset by higher vessel expenses tied to an increase in estimated ownership days.
Full year 2025 estimates. We are lowering our adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates to $68.1 million and $0.59, down from $79.6 million and $1.17, respectively. The downward revisions reflect lower time charter rates and fewer operating days of 7,241 compared to our previous estimate of 7,391 due to an increase in the number of dry-docking days during the year. We have lowered our total revenue forecast to $142.5 million from $154.9 million. We modestly lowered our operating expense estimate to $111.7 million from $113.2 million, driven by expectations for lower general and administrative costs.
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SelectQuote (SLQT/$2.35 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Prescription for Profit: Targets Pharmacy Margin Expansion
Rating: OUTPERFORM
FY Q3 results. The company reported fiscal Q3 revenue of $408.2 million, largely in line with our estimate of $417.0 million. Adj. EBITDA of $37.7 million was 10% lower than our estimate of $41.8 million, the variance largely due to higher cost of revenue.
Focusing on Pharmacy efficiency. In April, the company opened its new fulfillment center in Kansas, which is expected to drive higher profitability in the Healthcare Services segment over the long-term through newer technology and machinery. We expect the new facility to be a drag on profitability over the next quarter or so, however, due to the investments the company is making in the facility. The launch of the new facility aligns with the company’s goal to focus more on Healthcare Service profitability, given the scale that the segment has already achieved (approx. 106k SelectRx members).
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V2X (VVX/$51.41 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Announces $100 Million Share Repurchase Program
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Repurchase Program. Yesterday, V2X announced that its Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program under which the Company may purchase, from time to time, up to $100 million of the Company’s common stock for a three-year term ending on May 12, 2028.
Why? According to management, the share repurchase program reflects the strength of the business and management’s commitment to enhancing shareholder returns through a disciplined capital allocation strategy. As of yesterday’s close, the $100 million represents approximately 6.1% of the outstanding shares. To remind investors, private equity firm AIP owns about 45% of the outstanding shares.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, May 12, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Gaining Momentum
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Riding the Wave
E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Sports Gives It A Leg Up
FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – First Quarter Results
Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – Reports 1Q25 Results
Kelly Services (KELYA)/OUTPERFORM – MRP Integration Drives Strong Results
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Well Positioned to Benefit From Administration Priorities
MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – Making Progress
Ocugen (OCGN)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Reported With All Three Main Clinical Trials On Schedule
Sky Harbour Group (SKYH)/OUTPERFORM – Initiation of Coverage: A Long Cashflow Growth Runway
Comstock (LODE/$2.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Gaining Momentum
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Investor webinar. Comstock recently hosted a webinar to discuss the company’s first-quarter 2025 financial and operational performance, milestones associated with its renewable fuels and metals recycling platforms, and the outlook for the remainder of 2025. While Comstock continues to make rapid progress toward commercializing its Fuels and Metals businesses, perhaps the most significant achievement has been laying the financial foundation and framework for capitalizing its businesses to facilitate growth. These include LODE’s maintenance of the authorized share count, the recent share consolidation, a Series A financing for Comstock Fuels, and seeking financial and strategic partners to provide direct subsidiary-level financing.
Upcoming milestones. While Comstock summarized corporate and subsidiary-level objectives for 2025, we view several as significant. These include: 1) completing a Comstock Fuels Series A financing during the second quarter, 2) receipt of permits to expand Comstock Metals’ storage capacity and for the construction of its first industry-scale facility, 3) advancing project level financing for subsidiary projects, 4) the planned spin-off of Comstock Fuels, and 5) finalizing a plan to monetize Comstock’s properties and water rights in Silver Springs, Nevada.
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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$21.88 | Price Target: $28)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Riding the Wave
Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Rising Tide. This is a significant moment of time in CoreCivic’s history, in our opinion. Never in the 42-year company history has there been so much activity and demand for CoreCivic’s services. As we have stated in prior reports, demand for the Company’s services could have a significant upside impact on operating results.
1Q25. First quarter revenue came in at $488.6 million, compared to $500.7 million last year and our $480 estimate, with the decline related to the absence of revenue from the Dilley and CalCity facilities in 1Q25. Adjusted EBITDA was $78.3 million versus $89.5 million. CoreCivic reported EPS of $0.23 compared to an adjusted $0.25 last year and our $0.12 estimate.
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E.W. Scripps (SSP/$2.32 | Price Target: $10)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Sports Gives It A Leg Up
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 better than expected. The first quarter results were solid, beating expectations. Total revenues were $524.4 million, better than our $519.5 million estimate. Importantly, the largest revenue variance was due to better than expected core advertising, which carries incrementally higher margins. Combined with earlier cost reductions, particularly in its Network segment, the company roundly beat adj. EBITDA expectations, $75.6 million versus our $56.5 million estimate.
Powering through the headwinds. The company gave encouraging Q2 revenue guidance, reflecting improving core advertising trends and strong Connected TV revenue. Core advertising is expected to be down more modestly in Q2 than in Q1, driven by ad demand for its sports programming. Connected TV is expected to continue its favorable revenue trajectory (which was up 42% in Q1).
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FAT Brands (FAT/$2.75 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
First Quarter Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Progressing. In spite of the uncertain economy, FAT Brands continued to make progress during 1Q25. A total of 23 locations were opened in 1Q25, up 37% from 1Q24. YTD, the Company has signed agreements for an additional 100-plus locations, adding to the over 1,000 location pipeline. The initial Twin Hospitality distribution was accomplished and one of the whole business securitizations was amended.
1Q25 Results. Revenue was $142 million, down from $152 million in the year ago period, impacted by a 3.4% system-wide same store sale decline and lower revenues due to the closure of one Smokey Bones location during its conversion to a Twin Peaks lodge, partially offset by revenues generated by new Twin Peaks lodges. Reported loss was $46 million, or $2.73/sh, compared to a net loss of $38.3 million, or $2.37/sh, in 1Q24.
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Information Services Group (III/$4.64 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Reports 1Q25 Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 Results. Reported Q1 revenue of $59.6 million, slightly over the top end of management’s issued guidance and our estimate of $59.0 million. Net income totaled $1.5 million, or $0.03 per diluted share, an improvement from a loss of $3.4 million, or $0.07 per share, last year. We estimated net income of $0.78 million or $0.02 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was $7.4 million, near the high end of management’s issued guidance and above our estimate of $6.5 million. Adjusted EPS for Q1 came in at $0.07 per share, up from $0.01 per share last year, and above our estimate of $0.05 per share.
Economic Outlook. ISG is well positioned to capitalize on market disruption as clients accelerate digital transformation, adopting cloud solutions, modernizing infrastructure, and deploying AI operations to improve IT performance and reduce costs. These industry shifts align directly with ISG’s core strengths in digital strategy, sourcing advisory, and cost optimization.
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Kelly Services (KELYA/$12.09 | Price Target: $27)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
MRP Integration Drives Strong Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 Results. The Company recorded revenue of $1.16 billion, up 11.5% year-over-year, in line with our estimate of $1.16 billion. Adj. EBITDA came in at $34.9 million, up 4.8% over the prior year period and modestly lower than our estimate of $36.5 million. Adj. EBITDA margin decreased 20 basis points to 3.0%. Furthermore, Kelly reported net income of $0.16/sh. On an adjusted basis, EPS was $0.39/sh compared to $0.56/sh last year and our estimate of $0.60/sh.
MRP Integration. The majority of MRP operations were absorbed into the SET segment. However, MRP’s Sevenstep business, along with the OCG and P&I segments, have been combined into Enterprise Talent Management (ETM). In connection with the integration and realignment, Kelly took a $10.7 million charge in the quarter.
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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$33.61 | Price Target: $38)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Well Positioned to Benefit From Administration Priorities
Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25. In the first quarter of 2025, revenue increased $25.4 million to $302.6 million from $277.2 million in 1Q24. We had forecast revenue of $290 million. Kratos reported adjusted EBITDA of $26.7 million, compared to $26 million in 1Q24 and our $22.5 million estimate. Diluted GAAP EPS was $0.03 versus breakeven last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.12 up from $0.11 last year.
Positioning. With expectations the Defense budget will soon exceed $1 trillion and a major emphasis from the government on increasing innovation, reducing cost, increasing efficiencies, receiving more for less, and rapidly fielding relevant hardware and systems now, we believe Kratos is extremely well positioned.
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MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.1 | Price Target: $0.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Making Progress
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Moving Forward. MariMed brands continue to capture more share across the markets served. The Company expanded into 70 new storefronts in the quarter. Although MariMed’s brands are already top sellers in their markets, we believe there is a significant opportunity to seize additional market share.
1Q25. Revenue in the first quarter of 2025 of $38 million was virtually unchanged from the first quarter of 2024. We had projected $38.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $2.56 million, down from $4.66 million last year. Reported net loss was $5.4 million, or $0.01/sh, compared to a net loss of $1.3 million, or breakeven, last year.
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Ocugen (OCGN/$0.67 | Price Target: $8)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
1Q25 Reported With All Three Main Clinical Trials On Schedule
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Clinical Programs Meet Or Beat Expected Timeframes. Ocugen reported a 1Q25 loss of $15.4 million or $(0.05) per share, consistent with our estimates. The company’s three clinical trial continue to progress on schedule, with the first BLA application expected in mid-2026. Its fourth product, OCU200, initiated Phase 1 patient treatment during the quarter. Cash balance on March 31 was $38.1 million, projected to fund operations through early FY2026.
OCU400 Trial Continues To Lead The Way. The OCU400 liMeliGhT (pronounced “Limelight”) Phase 3 trial in RP continues to enroll patients, with completion expected around YE2025. The study enrolls patients over 5 years of age with any combination of over 100 mutations that cause RP. These patients are at stages ranging from early to advanced RP.
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Sky Harbour Group (SKYH/$11.42 | Price Target: $23)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Initiation of Coverage: A Long Cashflow Growth Runway
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and $23 price target. Sky Harbour Group (NYSE: SKYH) is a specialized aviation infrastructure developer focused on private and business aviation hangar facilities. It develops premium-grade hangar campuses under long-term ground lease agreements. With low land costs, tax-exempt financing, and strong tenant demand, we believe SKYH is positioned to deliver robust rental revenue growth and long-term free cash flow generation.
High-margin leasing model. Sky Harbour leases airport land at favorable long-term rates that are often under $1 per square foot annually. While only a fraction (1/4-1/3) of the land footprint is usable as rentable hangar space, this space can command upwards of $40 per square foot in rent. This creates a significant spread for SKYH. Furthermore, the company owns a prefabricated steel manufacturer, allowing for cost controls and delivery reliability.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, May 9, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS)/MARKET PERFORM – Recent Quarter Highlights Significant Challenges
Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD)/OUTPERFORM – Cadrenal Reports Tecarfarin Updates With 1Q25 Report
DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary and Updated Models
Information Services Group (III)/OUTPERFORM – First Look 1Q25
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Revising Estimates Based on Updated Corporate Guidance
Kelly Services (KELYA)/OUTPERFORM – First Look 1Q25
Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK)/OUTPERFORM – Navigating Economic Headwinds
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – A Solid Start to 2025
Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – Unique Digital Strategy Gains Traction
Townsquare Media (TSQ)/OUTPERFORM – Showing The Rest How Its Done
1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS/$5.79)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Recent Quarter Highlights Significant Challenges
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Fiscal Q3 disappoints. Fiscal Q3 revenues of $311.5 million was well below our $367.8 million estimate. Adj. EBITDA loss of $38.6 million was below our seasonal loss estimate of $12.4 million. In spite of a good Valentine’s Day, fiscal third quarter results were adversely affected by weakened consumer confidence and macro economic forces.
Pulls guidance. In lieu of recent trade policies and a weakened consumer, management pulled fiscal full year 2025 guidance. We estimate that fiscal Q4 revenues will decline roughly 6.3% (including the benefit of Easter) and that the company will report an adj. EBITDA loss of $20.5 million. Fiscal full year 2025 revenue and adj. EBIDA are revised to $1.687 billion and $29.2 million, respectively.
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Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD/$15.5 | Price Target: $45)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Cadrenal Reports Tecarfarin Updates With 1Q25 Report
Rating: OUTPERFORM
First Quarter Was Highlighted By The Collaboration With Abbott. Cadrenal Therapeutics reported a 1Q25 loss of $3.8 million or $(2.09) per share. An important development during the quarter was an agreement with Abbott to develop tecarfarin in LVADs (Left Ventricular Assist Devices). As planned, the company held a meeting with the FDA to discuss the next steps for clinical development of tecarfarin, its anticoagulant. Cash on March 31, 2025 was $7.3 million.
Meeting For Clinical Development Guidance Held With FDA. Cadrenal and the FDA held a meeting to discuss plans to conduct clinical trials to support an application for tecarfarin approval. The FDA gave guidance on the design and data requirements. Cadrenal plans to use the information to plan the final study design then submit it to the FDA for review and feedback.
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DLH Holdings (DLHC/$4.08 | Price Target: $10)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Post Call Commentary and Updated Models
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Moving Forward. While the path forward has been more challenging than we had anticipated, we believe DLH remains on the right path to strong operating results. We believe the Company’s core competencies are well aligned with the Federal government’s goals.
New Business. Management expects some $1 billion of business to be awarded by the end of the fiscal year, providing a substantial opportunity for DLH to win its fair share and drive organic growth in 2026. Yesterday, the Company announced it had been awarded a five year task order valued at up to $37.7 million to continue delivering scientific research and development, modeling & simulation, artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotic process automation, biomedical engineering, and cloud-enabled big data analytic solutions for the Telemedicine and Advanced Technology Research Center.
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Information Services Group (III/$4 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
First Look 1Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 Results. Reported Q1 revenue of $59.6 million, slightly over the top end of management’s issued guidance and our estimate of $59.0 million. Net income totaled $1.5 million, or $0.03 per diluted share, an improvement from a loss of $3.4 million, or $0.07 per share, last year. We estimated a net income of $0.78 million or $0.02 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was $7.4 million, near the high end of management’s issued guidance and above our estimate of $6.5 million. Adjusted EPS for Q1 came in at $0.07 per share, up from $0.01 per share last year, and above our estimate of $0.05 per share.
Favorable Developments. Notably, adj. EBITDA increased 68%, and adj. EBITDA margin increased by more than 550 basis points compared to the prior year period. The favorable growth in adj. EBITDA and adj. EBITDA margin are reflective of the Company’s disciplined operating approach and improved business mix. Additionally, we believe the Company is well-positioned to benefit from the uncertain economic environment as more companies look to optimize costs with investments in technology.
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InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$4.96 | Price Target: $15)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Revising Estimates Based on Updated Corporate Guidance
Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter financial results. InPlay Oil reported a first quarter net loss of C$2.9 million or C$0.18 per share compared to net income of C$1.7 million or C$0.02 per share during the prior year period. This was below our net income estimate of C$4.2 million or C$0.15 per share, primarily due to an unrealized loss on derivative contracts of C$4.6 million and higher-than-expected expenses. Moreover, commodity prices declined slightly during the first quarter, leading to lower revenues of C$38.4 million compared to our estimate of C$40.4 million.
Corporate 2025 guidance. The company generated quarterly production of 9,076 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), a 5% increase year-over-year and above our expectations of 8,800 boe/d. The company is raising its estimated field production expectations to 21,500 boe/d, a marked increase from 18,750 boe/d, and expects 2025 full year production to be in the range of 16,000 to 16,800 boe/d. Revenue guidance has been adjusted downward to C$46.75 to C$51.75 boe/d from C$56.50 to C$61.50 boe/d. Adjusted funds flow is expected to be between C$124 million and C$133 million, down from $204 million.
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Kelly Services (KELYA/$12.53 | Price Target: $27)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
First Look 1Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 Results. The Company recorded revenue of $1.16 billion, up 11.5% year over year, in line with our estimate of $1.16 billion. Adj. EBITDA came in at $34.9 million, up 4.8% over the prior year period and modestly lower than our estimate of $36.5 million. Adj. EBITDA margin decreased 20 basis points to 3.0%. Furthermore, Kelly reported net income of $0.16/sh. On an adjusted basis, EPS was $0.39/sh compared to $0.56/sh last year and our estimate of $0.60/sh.
Solid Results. The y-o-y revenue growth of 11.5% was largely driven by the Company’s May 2024 acquisition of Motion Recruitment Partners (MRP). On an organic basis, total revenue was only up 0.2%, which includes a 0.8% decrease in revenue from U.S. federal contractors and a 6.3% increase in Education segment revenue.
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Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK/$8.31 | Price Target: $17.5)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Navigating Economic Headwinds
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Lackluster Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $339.9 million and adj. EBITDA of $117.3 million, both of which were lower than our estimates of $360.0 million and $130 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q3 Results. Notably, the soft results were largely driven by a decrease in corporate events in California and Seattle, and partially offset by high single digit increase in food sales and stable retail and league business. While Q3 results were lackluster, we believe the company will gain momentum heading into the summer.
Favorable developments. The company’s Summer Season Pass program, aimed at driving retail traffic, increased sales by more than 200% compared with this time last year. Additionally, the company is heading into summer with three water parks and seven family entertainment centers that were acquired this year. We believe the company is well positioned to benefit from its enhanced scale, in spite of the economic uncertainty.
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ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$3.52 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
A Solid Start to 2025
Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Solid Start. ONE Group reported results modestly above our expectations for 1Q25. The accomplishments were driven by another quarter of sequential improvement in comparable sales trends, positive comparable sales at the Benihana restaurants, and strong positive transaction growth of 4.1% at the flagship STK brand.
1Q25 Results. ONE Group reported revenue of $211.1 million, up nearly 150% y-o-y, driven by the May 2024 Benihana acquisition. Same Store Sales declined 3.2%, compared to guidance of a negative 3-4%. Adjusted EBITDA was $25.2 million, up from $7.6 million. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.14, compared to an adjusted loss of $0.02/sh last year.
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Saga Communications (SGA/$11.75 | Price Target: $18)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Unique Digital Strategy Gains Traction
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 Results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $24.2 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $0.5 million, both of which declined over the prior year period, but were modestly better than our estimates of $23.0 million and a loss of $1.1 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q1 Results. Notably, the company is focused on its blended digital growth strategy and improving profitability. We believe the company’s strategic actions are a step in the right direction for returning toward revenue and adj. EBITDA growth.
Digital growth strategy. The company’s blended growth strategy combines radio and digital advertising to provide a consistent message to customers on both mediums and to drive radio listeners to digital platforms. Notably, year to date, the company has generated digital revenue of $5.3 million, surpassing the company’s $5.0 million generated for full year 2024.
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Townsquare Media (TSQ/$7.1 | Price Target: $21)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Showing The Rest How Its Done
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid first quarter results. Total company revenues were down a modest 1% to $98.7 million, in line with our $98.5 million estimate. Digital revenues increased 6.4%, nearly completely offsetting the weakness in legacy broadcast. Notably, Digital revenue in the quarter represented 57% of total revenue, but, more importantly, 62% of total company adj. EBITDA. Q1 adj. EBITDA of $18.1 million was better than our $17.0 million estimate.
Ignite continues to be on fire. Ignite, the company’s programmatic/advertising solutions business, increased revenues an attractive 7.6% in the quarter. Management indicated that the growth of Ignite will be enhanced by its white label initiative, which is expected to account for $10 million in revenue in 2025 and is expected to grow to $50 million in the next 3 to 5 years and with a 20% operating margin.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, May 8, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Comments
Conduent (CNDT)/OUTPERFORM – Posts Solid Q1 Results
CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW)/OUTPERFORM – Exceeds 1Q25 Expectations; Raises Full Year Guidance
DLH Holdings (DLHC)/OUTPERFORM – First Look into 2Q25
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF)/OUTPERFORM – Multiple Avenues for Value Creation Supported by Operational Cash Flow
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – First Look at the First Quarter of 2025
The GEO Group (GEO)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Results Lag Estimates; but Growth Story Remains Intact
The ODP Corporation (ODP)/OUTPERFORM – A Step In The Right Direction
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$1.03 | Price Target: $4)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Post Call Comments
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Promising Signs. Management highlighted the success of the Company’s ongoing efforts to improve cash flow and pay down debt. Compared to Q4 2024, Q1 2025 improved across several important financial metrics, resulting in increased profitability and margin growth due to operational efficiencies from the lower cost structure.
Reorganization. This quarter, the company launched its new segment structure: Global Seating, Global Electrical Systems, and Trim Systems and Components. The revised structure aims to better connect with the end market customer and sharpen the Company’s focus on the business units.
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Conduent (CNDT/$1.98 | Price Target: $7)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Posts Solid Q1 Results
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $751 million, slightly below our estimate of $767 million, illustrated in Figure #1 CNDT Q1 Results. Quarterly adj. EBITDA of $37 million was significantly higher than our estimate of $14 million, driven by better-than-expected operating cost reductions as the company works to remove stranded costs from its 2024 divestitures.
New business signings. During Q1, new business annual contract values (ACV) increased to $109 million, up 13.5% from $96 million in the prior year period. The total contract value (TCV) of the Q1 new business wins was $280 million, up an impressive 95.8%, year-over-year, indicating that management’s plan to return the organization to organic revenue growth is off to a good start, following a year that was more squarely focused on divestitures and debt reduction.
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CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW/$22.6 | Price Target: $25)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Exceeds 1Q25 Expectations; Raises Full Year Guidance
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Exceeds Expectations. Driven by an increase in occupancy to 77%, increased bed utilization, and cost management, CoreCivic exceeded internal expectations as well as our projections. Revenue was $488.6 million, better than our $480.1 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was $81 million compared to our $69.1 million estimate. FFO was $0.45/sh versus our $0.35/sh estimate, and EPS was $0.23 compared to our estimate of $0.12. In 1Q24, CoreCivic reported revenue of $500.7 million, adjusted EBITDA of $89.5 million, EPS of $0.08, and adjusted EPS of $0.25. The previous year benefited from contracts that were eventually lost during the year.
More Business. In addition to the 2,400 bed Dilley facility, CoreCivic has received letter agreements from ICE for the potential activation of the 1,033-bed Midwest Regional Reception Center in Leavenworth, Kansas and at the 2,560-bed California City Immigration Processing Center in California City, California. Management anticipates additional contracting activity as 2025 progresses.
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DLH Holdings (DLHC/$4.05 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
First Look into 2Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Tempered Results. DLH reported fiscal second quarter 2025 results in-line with our projections. Financial results continue to be negatively impacted by small business set asides and the run off of acquired small business revenue. Despite these headwinds, DLH’s core services revenue remained strong as the Company delivered cutting-edge solutions in support of customers’ mission-critical work.
2Q25 Results. Revenue declined 11.7% to $89.2 million in 2Q25, driven by small business conversions, but was in-line with our $90 million projection. DLH’s adjusted EBITDA totaled $9.4 million, down from $10.2 million in 2Q24. We were at $9.75 million. Net income was $0.9 million, or $0.06/sh, compared to $1.6 million, or $0.12/sh, last year and our estimate of $1.0 million, or $0.07/sh.
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Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF/$0.26 | Price Target: $0.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Multiple Avenues for Value Creation Supported by Operational Cash Flow
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating. Nicola Mining is a unique junior exploration company because it offers discovery potential through its ownership of its flagship New Craigmont Copper Project, ownership of the Treasure Mountain high-grade silver-lead-zinc mine, a 75% economic interest in the Dominion Creek gold project, along with 100% ownership of the only mill permitted to receive and process material from throughout British Columbia. The company’s Merritt Mill, along with a sand/gravel pit and rock quarry, generates cash flow to support Nicola’s operations and exploration programs, which minimizes the need for dilutive equity issuance.
New Craigmont Copper Project. New Craigmont is in the Quesnel Trough, one of Canada’s most prolific copper belts, and is surrounded by past and present producing copper mines and is adjacent to Teck Resources’ Highland Valley Copper Mine, the largest copper mine in Canada. New Craigmont derives its name from the historic Craigmont open pit and underground mine that operated on the property from 1961 to 1982. The Craigmont mine produced over 36.75 million tons of ore with an average grade of 1.28% copper, yielding 900 million pounds of copper. The mine ceased operations in 1982 due to low copper prices.
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NN (NNBR/$1.83 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
First Look at the First Quarter of 2025
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Commercial Traction Building. NN added $16.4 million of new business in the first quarter. The Company is well on pace to hit the lower end of its $60 to $70 million full-year target. NN continues to see positive traction in targeted markets, including medical, high-value automotive, and electrical components. Additionally, the Company’s commercial pipeline is strong at over $740 million.
Mixed Financial Start Amidst Transition. First quarter net sales came in at $105.7 million, compared to $121.2 million a year ago, with the decline primarily reflecting the Lubbock sale and rationalized business lines. On a pro forma basis, revenue was down just 1.3% year-over-year. Power Solutions declined to $43.5 million from $48.2 million in 2024 due to the sale of Lubbock. Mobile Solutions revenue fell to $62.2 million compared to $73.1 million during the same prior year period, due to the closing of the Juarez plant. Adjusted EBITDA was $10.6 million, slightly lower than last year’s $11.3 million and lower than our $11.6 million estimate. Adjusted EPS loss for the quarter improved year-over-year to $0.03 from a loss of $0.08.
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The GEO Group (GEO/$27.32 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
1Q25 Results Lag Estimates; but Growth Story Remains Intact
Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 Results. Revenue of $604.9 million, compared to $605.7 million in 1Q24 and our $608 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was $99.8 million, down from $117.6 million in 1Q24 and our $114 million estimate. GEO reported net income of $19.6 million, or EPS of $0.14, compared to $22.7 million, or $0.14/sh, in the same period last year.
Ready To Go. GEO remains poised to assist the Federal government in its immigration policies. We have previously discussed a number of new contracts for the Company, and we anticipate additional awards over the remainder of 2025.
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The ODP Corporation (ODP/$13.79 | Price Target: $35)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
A Step In The Right Direction
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Q1 Results. Sales for the first quarter were $1.699 billion compared to $1.869 billion last year but were above our expectations of $1.625 billion. Net loss totaled $29 million, or a loss of $0.97/sh, compared to a net income of $15 million, or $0.40/sh, in the prior year. Adjusted EPS was $1.06, which surpassed our estimate of $0.58/sh, but was lower than $1.31 last year. Adjusted EBITDA of $76 million beat our estimate of $59 million and decreased from $91 million last year.
Favorable Developments. The initial hospitality partnership covers approximately 15,000 potential customer locations within a national hotel management group and is expected to provide a foundation for long-term growth in the segment and adjacent industries. Notably, the company is building inventory and hiring experienced sales personnel to support growth. We believe its actions will drive meaningful growth in the hospitality segment, with meaningful contributions in the second half of 2025.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, May 7, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI)/OUTPERFORM – First Look at 1Q25
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – Tackling Its Challenges
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – First Quarter Results Exceeded Our Estimates
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)/OUTPERFORM – An Exceptional Quarter
Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Strategic Initiatives Gain Traction
Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI/$0.9 | Price Target: $4)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
First Look at 1Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Performance Continues to Struggle. First quarter revenue declined 12.7% to $169.8 million from $194.6 million during the same prior year period. The revenue outperformed our estimate of $160.0 million. Operating income and adjusted operating income of $1.4 million and $2.1 million, respectively, decreased by $3.1 million and $4.2 million. Net loss totaled $3.1 million, or $0.09/share, and adjusted net loss totaled $2.6 million, or $0.08/share. Adjusted EBITDA declined to $5.8 million from $9.7 million.
Continued Headwinds. 2025 continues the trends of last year, with challenging global construction and agricultural end markets and lower customer demand across all segments. Furthermore, the recent policy changes and subsequent economic environment have temporarily driven further market confusion. ACT Research projects 2025 North American Class 8 truck production levels to be around 255,000 units compared to 333,372 in 2024, while the Construction and Agriculture markets are projected to be down 5-15% in 2025.
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Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.88)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Tackling Its Challenges
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Mixed Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $8.2 million, below our estimate of $10.5 million, and adj. EBITDA loss of $3.0 million, which was in line with our estimate of a loss of $3.1 million. Notably, the variance in revenue was attributed to softness in the company’s sell-side business, which is still recovering from the defamatory article that was released in 2024. Sell-side revenue trends improved from Q4 when taking into account the seasonality strong quarter and influx of $700,000 in Political advertising.
Segment results. The company reported Q1 Buy-side revenue of $6.1 million, an increase of 6.1% over the prior year period and in line with our estimate of $6.5 million. While Sell-side revenue of $2.0 million was lower than our $4.0 million estimate, the segment should improve volume in the second half of the year, which should provide a meaningful step up in revenue.
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FreightCar America (RAIL/$6.81 | Price Target: $13.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
First Quarter Results Exceeded Our Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter financial results. FreightCar America reported net income of $1.604 million or $0.05 per share compared to our estimate of $1.223 million or $0.03 per share. The variances to our estimates were largely revenue and margin driven. As expected, revenue and rail car deliveries declined to $96.3 million and 710, respectively, compared to $161.1 million and 1,223 during the first quarter of 2024. Our estimates were $82.5 million and 700. During the quarter, a portion of RAIL’s railcar production capacity was utilized for custom fabrications by its Aftermarket segment. Management expected lower deliveries to be reflected in first quarter revenues. Gross profit and margin improved to $14.4 million and 14.9%, respectively, compared to $11.4 million and 7.1% during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $7.3 million compared to $6.1 million during the first quarter of 2024. RAIL generated free cash flow of $12.5 million and ended the quarter with $54.1 million in cash.
No Change to 2025 corporate guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 4,500 to 4,900, revenue is expected to be in the range of $530 million to $595 million, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $43 to $49 million. Compared to 2024, railcar deliveries, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA are expected to increase 7.7%, 0.6%, and 7.0%, respectively, at the midpoints of guidance.
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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD/$10 | Price Target: $14)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
An Exceptional Quarter
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Exceptional Quarter. Driven by strong project performance and high utilization, as all active dredges were operational, Great Lakes generated exceptional operating results in the quarter, significantly exceeding our, and consensus, estimates. While, planned drydockings will impact future quarters, the $1+ billion backlog and strong operating environment bode well for the Company.
1Q25 Results. Revenue of $242.9 million in 1Q25 was up 22.3% from $198.7 million in 1Q24, and above our $215.5 million estimate. Gross margin improved to 28.6% from 22.9% last year and our 21.1% estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was $60.1 million versus $42.9 million in 1Q24 and our $39.5 million estimate. Net income for 1Q25 totaled $33.4 million, or $0.49/sh, up from $21.0 million and $0.31/sh last year. We had an estimated net income of $17 million or $0.25/sh.
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Snail (SNAL/$0.98 | Price Target: $4)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Strategic Initiatives Gain Traction
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Favorable content updates. The company recently announced favorable developments that highlight the execution of its strategic initiatives to diversify revenue and drive player engagement. Notably, in April, the company released two new titles under its independent publishing label, Wandering Wizard, and provided new content in Ark: Survival Ascended (ASA) and Bellwright.
Driving player engagement. In April, the company released Eggcellent Adventure on ASA, an Easter themed seasonal event, and launched the Extinction map on Ark: Ultimate Mobile Edition. As a reminder, ARK: Ultimate Mobile Edition was released in December and gained over 2 million users during the month. In our view, the new content releases are illustrative of its strategic initiatives to enhance player engagement.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, May 6, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Aurania Closes Final Tranche of Private Placement Financing
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – RAIL Exceeds Our First Quarter Expectations; Investor Call at 11:00 am ET
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 1Q25, Expanding Opportunities
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.18 | Price Target: $0.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Aurania Closes Final Tranche of Private Placement Financing
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Private placement financing. Aurania Resources closed the second and final tranche of its non-brokered private placement financing. A total of 2,569,022 units of the company were sold under the second tranche at a price of C$0.30 per unit. Including the first tranche which closed on April 17, Aurania issued 5,751,921 units for gross proceeds of C$1,725,577. Net proceeds will be used to fund general working capital needs and may be used to pay mineral concession fees in Ecuador.
Terms of the offering. Each unit is composed of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.55 for a period of 24 months following the closing of the date of issuance.
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FreightCar America (RAIL/$6.25 | Price Target: $13.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
RAIL Exceeds Our First Quarter Expectations; Investor Call at 11:00 am ET
Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter financial results. FreightCar America earned adjusted net income of $1.604 million or $0.05 per share compared to our estimate of $1.223 million or $0.03 per share. The variance to our estimates were largely revenue and margin driven. As expected, revenue and rail car deliveries declined to $96.3 million and 710, respectively, compared to $161.1 million and 1,223 during the first quarter of 2023. Our estimates were $82.5 million and 700. During the quarter, a portion of RAIL’s railcar production capacity was utilized to build spare parts for its Aftermarket segment. Management expected lower deliveries to be reflected in first quarter revenues. Gross profit and margin improved to $14.4 million and 14.9%, respectively, compared to $11.4 million and 7.1% during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $7.3 million compared to $6.1 million during the first quarter of 2023. RAIL generated free cash flow of $12.5 million and ended the quarter with $54.1 million in cash.
Favorable outlook. First quarter sales activity was strong with 1,250 railcars ordered. With a backlog of 3,337 units valued at $318 million, we expect deliveries to accelerate throughout the year.
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V2X (VVX/$48.92 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Solid 1Q25, Expanding Opportunities
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Strategy Working. V2X’s unique full-lifecycle, mission-driven strategy is working, resulting in not only an expanded opportunity set but significantly larger individual opportunities than in the past. The Company’s focus on enhancing mission effectiveness, extending asset utilization, reducing costs, and improving security and mission outcomes dovetails nicely with the focus of the DoD and the current Administration.
1Q25 Results. Revenue came in at $1.015 billion compared to $1.01 billion in 1Q24 and our $1.04 billion estimate, with 10% y-o-y growth in Indopacom the driver. Adjusted EBITDA was $67 million, down slightly from $69 million last year and in-line with our estimate. Adjusted EPS was $0.98, up from $0.90 last year and our $0.89 estimate.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, May 5, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – Post Call Commentary
Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE)/MARKET PERFORM – Near Term Tariff Turbulence Likely
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$3.67 | Price Target: $12)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Post Call Commentary
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Control What Can Be Controlled. Given the uncertain economic situation, management is focused on what they can control. The prime examples being the multi-year cost out program and the effort to move manufacturing for U.S. based consumption to the lowest cost geographical areas possible. Management also continues to push forward its new product program to capture additional sales.
Cost Reduction Program. ACCO’s $100 million cost reduction program remains on track, with SG&A costs down y-o-y primarily due to the program. Management estimates some $7 million of savings during 1Q25, and the Company remains on track to deliver $40 million of savings in 2025. This will help alleviate some of the pressure from tariff uncertainty.
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Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE/$2.25)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Near Term Tariff Turbulence Likely
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Favorable Fourth Quarter Results. Fourth quarter total company revenues increased an attractive 6.2% to $79.95 million, well above our $71.5 million estimate, primarily due to strong growth in its Wholesale business. Due to price integrity, gross margins substantially improved 470 basis points to 50.1%. As a result, adj. EBITDA in the latest quarter was $3.58 million, better than our $1.5 million estimate.
Adjusting estimates lower. Management guided fiscal first quarter revenues to be down 5%, with gross margins likely down 500 basis points. Notably, the first quarter guidance did not reflect the current U.S. trade policy. While the full extent of the company’s tariff mitigation plans are fluid, we believe that there will be some adverse revenue and cost of goods impact.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, May 2, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
ACCO Brands (ACCO)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 1Q25; But Uncertainties Limit Visibility Beyond 2Q25
Cumulus Media (CMLS)/MARKET PERFORM – Skating On Thin Ice
GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – 1Q25 Reported With Pipeline Strategy Updates
Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Keeping Its Focus On The Bullseye
ACCO Brands (ACCO/$3.86 | Price Target: $12)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Solid 1Q25; But Uncertainties Limit Visibility Beyond 2Q25
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid 1Q25. In the historically smallest quarter, ACCO reported revenue in-line with guidance while exceeding adjusted EPS guidance during the quarter. However, increased market uncertainties driven by global trade dynamics is resulting in limited visibility beyond 2Q25. Management’s strategic management of its supplier base and ability to accelerate supply chain moves should lessen the impact of tariffs.
1Q25 Results. Revenue of $317.4 million was within management’s $315-$325 million guidance. We were at $315 million. Revenue was down 11.6% y-o-y, with comp sales off 8.3%. Adverse forex reduced revenue by 3.3%. The revenue decline was driven by softer global demand for certain office products and gaming accessories, partially offset by growth in computer accessories. Gross margin improved 60bp y-o-y to 31.4%.
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Cumulus Media (CMLS/$0.19)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Skating On Thin Ice
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Q1 revenue weaker than expected. Total company revenues declined 6.4% to $187.3 million, weaker than our 4.8% decline and $190.4 million estimates, respectively. Due to previous cost reductions, the company achieved our adj. EBITDA estimate, $3.5 million versus our estimate of $3.4 million.
Digital Marketing Services (DMS) revenue surges. DMS revenues, which account for roughly 30% of the digital segment, increased a strong 30%. Management indicated that DMS Q2 revenue pacings have accelerated to 35% growth. Notably, the digital segment accounted for 20% of total company revenues.
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GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$0.99 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
1Q25 Reported With Pipeline Strategy Updates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
First Quarter Included Contract Revenues. GeoVax reported a 1Q25 loss of $5.4 million or $(0.45) per share, a smaller loss than we had expected. The quarter included $1.6 million in Contract Revenue from the BARDA contract in preparation for the Phase 2 trial. Since the contract was cancelled on April 11, 2025, the 2Q25 results will include some final contract work. Cash on March 31, 2025, was $7.4 million.
CM04S1 Continues Development With Focus On Immunocompromised Patients. The current focus of CM04S1 development is in immunocompromised patients, a population estimated at 40 million patients in the US alone. Data from the Phase 1 and Phase 2 clinical trials for CM04S1 was presented at the 25th World Vaccine Congress. The two Phase 2 trials in chronic lymphocytic leukemia and stem cell transplants continue to enroll patients, while the Phase 2 Healthy Adult Booster trial is expected to report data during 2Q25.
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Xcel Brands (XELB/$2.43 | Price Target: $15)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Keeping Its Focus On The Bullseye
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Collaboration with a UTG. United Trademark Group (UTG) made a $9 million strategic investment in Xcel Brands and announced a strategic partnership. The investment bolstered the company’s balance sheet and provided more favorable debt covenant terms. In addition, UTG has performance warrants, exercisable over 7 years, that could bring in an additional $13 million if exercised.
Increased financial flexibility. United Trademark Group (UTG) took a $9 million strategic investment in the form of a Paid In Kind (PIK) loan. UTG was also issued performance based warrants that could add $13 million, if exercised. We believe that the funds will be used to support the growth of recently announced brands and provide financial flexibility to acquire or develop additional brands.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, May 1, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Gaining Momentum
Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS)/OUTPERFORM – Some Favorable Tailwinds?
Nutriband (NTRB)/OUTPERFORM – Fiscal 2025 Reported With Product Progress Updates
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Some More Awards
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.19 | Price Target: $0.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Gaining Momentum
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Private placement financing. Aurania recently closed the first tranche of its previously announced non-brokered private placement financing of up to 5,000,000 units at a price of C$0.30 per unit for gross proceeds of up to C$1,500,000. An aggregate of 3,182,899 units were sold under the first tranche for gross proceeds of C$954,869.70. Dr. Keith Barron, Chairman, President, and CEO, acquired 1,000,000 units under the offering and owns or exercises control over 47,672,635 common shares, 1,752,992 options, and 12,399,135 warrants representing 44.41% and 50.88% of the company’s issued and outstanding common shares on a non-diluted and partially diluted basis, respectively. Aurania expects to close the final tranche of its non-brokered private placement on or around May 5.
Loan agreement. Dr. Keith Barron has also agreed to provide a loan of up to US$2,094,500 to the company. The loan will be advanced from time to time in mutually agreed upon principal amounts. The loan is unsecured and bears interest at 2% per annum. The proceeds are expected to be used to fund Aurania’s remaining 2024 mineral concession fees in Ecuador, which are due on May 1.
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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS/$33.78 | Price Target: $38)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some Favorable Tailwinds?
Rating: OUTPERFORM
A Trillion Dollard Defense Budget? House Republicans have released legislation that would increase Pentagon spending by $150 billion. The proposal was approved by the House Armed Services Committee and, when combined with the already approved government fiscal year 2025 $886 billion defense budget, the added dollars would bring defense spending to more than $1 trillion for the first time. A significant portion of the recent budget increases target areas in Kratos’ wheelhouse, in our opinion, which could provide additional upside to the Company.
Missile Defense. Approximately $25 billion of the $150 billion proposed increase would be earmarked for the Golden Dome missile defense initiative. Recall, Golden Dome would be a shield intended to protect the continental U.S. against advanced missiles. Golden Dome is another project that aligns with Kratos’ capabilities, in our view.
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Nutriband (NTRB/$6.88 | Price Target: $13)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Fiscal 2025 Reported With Product Progress Updates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fiscal Year 2025 Reported. Nutriband reported its financial results for FY2025, ended January 31, 2025, with a 4Q25 loss of $5.5 million or ($0.50) per share and a loss of $10.5 million or $(0.99) per share. Preparations for the abuse-deterrence clinical testing continue, with an NDA expected toward 4Q25 or early 2026. As of January 31, 2025, the cash balance was $4.3 million.
Revenue For The Pocono Pharmaceutical Division Met Expectations. The Pocono Pharmaceutical division revenue for FY2025 was $2.1 million, with 4Q25 consistent with previous quarters. Gross margin improved in 4Q25 to 45% of sales, the highest level of the year. Nutriband has extended its contract manufacturing collaboration with KT tape, the kinesiology tape company, with modest growth in our projections for FY2026.
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V2X (VVX/$49.76 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Some More Awards
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Awards. V2X continues to win new awards, and if current Defense budget proposals resulting in the first $1 trillion budget for fiscal year 2025 move to fruition, the award environment should remain target rich for the Company
Navy Contract. Earlier this week, the Company was awarded a $103 million contract by the U.S. Navy for Contractor Logistics Support (CLS) maintenance of C-26 aircraft. Under this contract, V2X will continue providing comprehensive CLS support, including aircraft engineering, upgrades, maintenance, and modifications. The award reinforces V2X’s role as the best-value provider for this critical mission, in our view.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 30, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – First Quarter Results Above Our Estimates; Stronger Second Half Expected
Perfect (PERF)/OUTPERFORM – Q1 Revenue Growth Demonstrates Resilience
Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – Off To A Solid Start
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$27.07 | Price Target: $31)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
First Quarter Results Above Our Estimates; Stronger Second Half Expected
Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter financial results. Alliance reported first quarter adjusted EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $159.9 million and $0.57, respectively, compared to $238.4 million and $1.21 during the prior year period. We had projected EBITDA and EPU of $143.8 million and $0.48. While total revenue of $540.5 million was just shy of our $541.1 million estimate, we underestimated coal sales and overstated transportation revenue. Consequently, transportation expense was also overstated. Total operating expenses were $446.2 million compared to our $462.3 million forecast.
Corporate outlook for 2025 and 2026. Management’s guidance for 2025 was little changed, except for increasing the range for total coal sales tonnage, increasing expense as a percentage of oil & gas royalty revenue, depreciation expense, and lowering net interest expense expectations. For 2026, management expects the average coal sales price per ton to trend lower. Due to higher-priced, multi-contracts rolling off, the average sales price per ton could be 4% to 5% below the midpoint of ARLP’s 2025 guidance. We think planned 2025 long wall moves and actions to improve productivity and cost effectiveness could help offset lower prices.
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Perfect (PERF/$1.92 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA pmccann@noblefcm.com | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Q1 Revenue Growth Demonstrates Resilience
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue growth of 13.4% year over year to $16.0 million, roughly in line with our estimate of $16.2 million. Adj. EBITDA of $0.9 million was better than our estimate of $0.4 million.
B2C momentum. The strong quarterly revenue growth was driven by the company’s B2C segment. Importantly, the company is in the midst of optimizing pricing for its popular beauty app subscription and recently introduced a higher margin premium subscription plan. We believe the B2C segment is poised for continued revenue growth throughout 2025.
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Travelzoo (TZOO/$16.12 | Price Target: $28)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Off To A Solid Start
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Reports solid Q1 results. Q1 revenues accelerated, up 5.3%, from the 2.2% decline in the fourth quarter, reflecting the early adoption of the company’s transformative migration toward a subscription model. Results were in line with expectations, with adj. EBITDA of $4.4 million and positive free cash flow generation of $3.3 million.
Revenues expected to accelerate. Management indicated that second quarter revenue growth is expected to accelerate, double the rate of the first quarter’s 5.3%. The enhanced revenue growth reflects the success of converting legacy subscribers to a paid subscription. The paid subscription began in the first quarter of 2025, with subscription revenues recognized pro-ratably over the subscription period. As such, we expect that revenue growth will accelerate as it adds subscriptions throughout the year.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 29, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – April News Roundup
FAT Brands (FAT/$2.69 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
April News Roundup
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fazoli’s Securitization. FAT Brands amended the Fazoli’s whole business securitization credit facility. The amendments extended the repayment and call dates from January 2025 to July 2026 and from July 2023 to October 2025, respectively, while also relaxing certain covenants, providing FAT greater operational flexibility. The new agreement also permits FAT to sell off the corporate-owned Fazoli locations.
France Growth. Also, during the month, FAT announced a new partnership to expand Fatburger across France, with the opening of 30 units over the next three years, with five units expected to be opened in 2026. FAT’s partner has a vast amount of experience within the restaurant space and successfully operates their own restaurant franchise in the country.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 28, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – Reports 4Q25 Results
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.79)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Reports 4Q25 Results
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
4Q25 Results. Revenue totaled $118.8 million, reflecting initial sales of TerraSante product. We were at $25,000. Net loss totaled $1.2 million, or a loss of $0.02/sh, in line with our estimate. For the full year, MustGrow reported revenue of $398,018 and a net loss of $4.9 Million, or a loss of $0.09/sh, also inline with our expectations.
Capital Raise. In mid-January, MustGrow raised $2.585 million of capital through the sale of convertible debentures. Combined with the $3 million of cash at year-end, we believe the Company has sufficient liquidity until significant revenue begins, which we expect this year.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, April 25, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Gaining Market Share
FreightCar America (RAIL/$6.45 | Price Target: $13.5)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Gaining Market Share
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Robust first quarter order activity. During the first quarter ending on March 31, FreightCar America received orders for a total of 1,250 railcars valued at approximately $141 million. Based on the Railway Supply Institute’s American Railway Car Institute Committee (ARCI) first quarter 2025 reporting statistics, industry orders totaled 5,085 railcars, while deliveries amounted to 7,810. Freight Car’s orders represented approximately 25% of all new railcars ordered during the quarter and 36% of FreightCar America’s addressable market.
2025 corporate guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 4,500 to 4,900, revenue is expected to be in the range of $530 million to $595 million, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $43 to $49 million. Our current 2025 estimates include railcar deliveries of 4,700 units, revenue of $562.5 million, and EBITDA of $45.4 million. While first quarter orders of 1,250 was above our estimate of 1,000, our estimate for first quarter deliveries is unchanged.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 24, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cumulus Media (CMLS)/MARKET PERFORM – Not Good Foreshadowing
Cumulus Media (CMLS/$0.27)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Not Good Foreshadowing
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Plans to delist. The company announced plans to move its stock from the Nasdaq to the OTC
market effective May 2nd. Cumulus received a delisting warning a month earlier from Nasdaq
for not meeting a $10 million minimum stockholders’ equity requirement. The company
determined that will not appeal given the time, effort and cost of to remain on Nasdaq.
Ticker remains CMLS. The company has applied and qualified to list on the OTC Markets’
OTCQB market tier and expects that its shares will trade at the open on May 2 under its current
trading symbol CMLS. The company indicated that it plans to continue to file periodic and other
required reports with the SEC.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 23, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Better Than Expected FY 2025 Financial Results; Strong Start to FY 2026
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – Taking Measures To Remain Listed
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – A Leader in Vibe Dining, Initiating Research Coverage
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$2.87 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
A Leader in Vibe Dining, Initiating Research Coverage
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating Research Coverage. We are initiating research coverage of The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (NASDAQ:STKS) with an Outperform rating and a $5 price target. The ONE Group is an international restaurant company that develops and operates upscale and polished casual, high-energy restaurants and lounges and provides hospitality management services for hotels, casinos and other high-end venues both in the U.S. and internationally.
A Leader in Vibe Dining. ONE Group is a leader in the “Vibe Dining” subsegment. Vibe Dining is characterized by a quality culinary experience complimented with an engaging social scene, such as DJ’s and dancing. While not a new theme, Vibe Dining is being pushed by a generation of consumers looking for more than just food for their dollar. As a category, Vibe Dining is projected to continue to grow at above average rates.
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AZZ (AZZ/$80.06 | Price Target: $112)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Better Than Expected FY 2025 Financial Results; Strong Start to FY 2026
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth quarter and full year financial results. For fiscal year (FY) 2025, AZZ reported adjusted net income of $156.8 million or $5.20 per share compared to $132.8 million or $4.53 per share during FY 2024 and our estimate of $155.9 million or $5.17 per share. Compared to FY 2024, sales increased 2.6% to $1.578 billion. AZZ generated a 24.3% gross margin as a percentage of sales compared to 23.6% during the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 4.3% to $347.9 million, representing 22.0% of sales compared to 21.7% of sales in FY 2024. Adjusted net income and EPS during the fourth quarter of FY 2025 were $29.6 million and $0.98, respectively, compared to our estimates of $28.8 million and $0.95 per share.
Updating estimates. We project FY 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS of $1.676 billion, $381.7 million, and $5.83 respectively. Our FY 2026 estimates reflect a gross margin of $408.7 million or 24.4% of sales. We have assumed the company accelerates debt repayment to lower interest expense to offset the reduction of equity in earnings of unconsolidated subsidiaries caused by the AVAIL JV’s sale of its Electric Products business.
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Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.55)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Taking Measures To Remain Listed
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Listing requirements not met. The company initially received a notification that it was not in compliance with the Nasdaq’s minimum stockholder equity requirement in October 2024. The company subsequently submitted a plan to regain compliance in February 2025 and was granted an extension until April 16, 2025. However, on April 16, the company had not regained compliance and received a letter of determination from Nasdaq on April 17.
Letter of determination. The letter of determination stated the company did not meet the terms of its extension, due to a noncomplete capital raise that was laid out in its plan to regain compliance, and ultimately did not meet the stockholders’ equity requirement. We believe that the company is working on capital raising initiatives, which should put the company back in compliance. The Class A Common stock is scheduled to be suspended from trading at market open on April 28. The company has filed for a hearing which should delay the delisting process for at least 35 days.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 22, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Adj. Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Exceed Expectations
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Share Consolidation, Updating Estimates
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 1Q25 New Business Wins
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Some LOGCAP Extensions
AZZ (AZZ/$77.62 | Price Target: $112)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Adj. Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Exceed Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth quarter and full year financial results. For fiscal year (FY) 2025, AZZ reported adjusted net income of $156.8 million or $5.20 per share compared to $132.8 million or $4.53 per share during FY 2024 and our estimate of $155.9 million or $5.17 per share. Compared to FY 2024, sales increased 2.6% to $1.578 billion. AZZ generated a 24.3% gross margin as a percentage of sales compared to 23.6% during the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 4.3% to $347.9 million, representing 22.0% of sales compared to 21.7% of sales in FY 2024. Adjusted net income and EPS during the fourth quarter of FY 2025 were $29.6 million and $0.98, respectively, compared to our estimates of $28.8 million and $0.95 per share.
Debt reduction. During FY 2025, AZZ generated operating cash flow of $249.9 million and reduced debt by $110 million. Management expects to accelerate debt repayments with proceeds from the AVAIL transaction which is expected to close in the first quarter of FY 2026. We estimate FY 2026 debt repayments could approach $300 million. At the end of FY 2025, AZZ’s net leverage was below 2.5x trailing twelve months EBITDA.
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InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$5.42 | Price Target: $18)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Share Consolidation, Updating Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Share consolidation. As of April 21, 2025, InPlay Oil shares are trading on a post-consolidation basis, with 27,939,437 common shares outstanding. The terms of the share consolidation were one post-consolidation common share per six pre-consolidation common shares. Fractional shares resulting from the consolidation were rounded down to the nearest whole number.
Updating estimates and price target. We are updating our 2025 estimates to reflect fewer shares outstanding and lower crude oil price estimates. For 2025, we are lowering our oil and gas revenue and earnings per share estimates to C$318.7 million and C$1.34, from C$333.5 million and C$1.46, both adjusted for the share consolidation. Moreover, we have lowered our adjusted funds flow (AFF) to C$149.5 million from C$161.6 million. We are maintaining our production estimate of 18,750 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) post the Pembina acquisition, which averages 15,816 boe/d for the full-year 2025.
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NN (NNBR/$1.71 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Solid 1Q25 New Business Wins
Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 New Business Wins. NN achieved 1Q25 new business wins of $16.4 million, a solid performance given the state of the economy, in our view. In the same period last year, new business wins totaled $17.2 million. NN is well on its way to meeting its 2025 goal of $65 million in new business wins.
Diversified Backlog and Pipeline. New business wins for the quarter were focused on electrical and power products, medical, non-automotive industrial products, and automotive products. Roughly half of the nearly $700 million pipeline is in these targeted areas.
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V2X (VVX/$46.83 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Some LOGCAP Extensions
Rating: OUTPERFORM
LOGCAP Extensions. V2X has been notified by the U.S. Army that it will extend the current period of performance (PoP) for the various task orders under the LOGCAP V ID/IQ contract to support U.S. military operations worldwide. The Company’s Kuwait Task Order (TO), Iraq Task Order, and INDOPACOM Task Order are scheduled to extend through June 2030. Given the size of LOGCAP V, we view this as a significant positive for the Company.
SAM.gov. According to the filing on SAM.gov, the Army sought to increase the overall PoP for the current LOGCAP performance task orders (PTOs) to match the PoPs of the aligned Set the Theater (STT) task orders. The LOGCAP STT TOs were awarded as a base year plus nine one-year option periods.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 21, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – First Tranche of Private Placement Financing Closed
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – 2024 Financial Results In line with Expectations, 2025 Outlook
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.2 | Price Target: $0.55)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
First Tranche of Private Placement Financing Closed
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Private placement financing. Aurania Resources Ltd. closed the first tranche of its previously announced non-brokered private placement financing of up to 5,000,000 units at a price of C$0.30 per unit for gross proceeds of up to C$1,500,000. An aggregate of 3,182,899 units were sold under the first tranche for gross proceeds of C$954,869.70. Dr. Keith Barron, CEO and a director, acquired 1,000,000 units under the offering and owns or exercises control over 47,672,635 common shares, 1,752,992 options, and 12,399,135 warrants representing 44.41% and 50.88% of the company’s issued and outstanding common shares on a non-diluted and partially diluted basis, respectively.
Terms of the offering. Each unit is composed of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.55 for a period of 24 months following the closing of the first tranche. To accommodate demand, Aurania may increase the size of the offering by up to 25% and expects to close the remaining tranche(s) on or around April 24.
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Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.27 | Price Target: $2.3)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
2024 Financial Results In line with Expectations, 2025 Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Full-year 2024 financial results. Hemisphere Energy reported full-year net income and earnings per share of C$33.1 million and C$0.33, respectively, slightly above our estimates of C$32.3 million and C$0.32. The variance is mainly due to stronger oil pricing of $79.48, compared to our estimate of $76.31. Year-over-year, oil and natural gas revenue increased ~18% to C$79.7 million from C$67.7 million. This increase was driven by increased production and more robust pricing of 3,436 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) and $79.48, respectively, compared to 3,125 boe/d and $74.07. Likewise, adjusted funds flow (AFF) increased 16% in 2024 to C$45.8 million from C$39.4 million in 2023. We had forecast AFF of C$45.4 million.
Updating estimates. Based on lower crude oil price estimates, we are lowering our 2025 net income and earnings per share estimates to C$30.3 million and C$0.29, respectively, from C$37.2 million and C$0.37. Additionally, we are decreasing our adjusted funds flow estimate to C$42.9 million from C$50.6 million. We are maintaining our 2025 average daily production estimate of 3,900 boe/d, an increase of ~14% over 2024.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 17, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Strategic Partnership with RWE Clean Energy
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Term Loan Refi Completed
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – A Sanguine Outlook For 2025
Comstock (LODE/$2.16)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Strategic Partnership with RWE Clean Energy
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Partnership with RWE. Comstock Metals entered into a Master Services Agreement with RWE Clean Energy, the U.S. subsidiary of RWE, which operates a renewable energy portfolio of approximately 10 gigawatts. It is the third largest owner and operator of onshore wind, solar, and battery storage in the United States. Comstock Metals will provide RWE with recycling, decommissioning, and logistics services for their U.S. solar installations to ensure a zero-landfill solution for 100% of the recovered solar panel materials.
Industry-scale facility. Comstock Metals has operated a demonstration-scale solar panel recycling facility since 2024. The company generates revenue through service fees for decommissioning, tipping fees for receiving and processing end-of-life solar panels, and offtake sales of high-value recycled materials, including aluminum, copper, glass, and concentrated precious metals. Comstock expects to spend $6 million to build its first large-scale facility in 2025. The project will be commissioned in 2026 and will scale in two phases, with initial capacity of up to 50,000 tons annually by 2026, and then to 100,000 tons annually.
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NN (NNBR/$1.63 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Term Loan Refi Completed
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Term Loan Refi. NN announced the successful completion of its term loan refinancing. The new term loan has multiple improved operational features that management expects will enable the Company to improve and grow faster. Combined with the $65 million ABL refinancing announced in January, yesterday’s announcement sets the stage for a new chapter for NN, in our view.
Details. Although we are awaiting an 8-K filing to drill down into all the terms of the new financing, the term loan is $118 million, with a 2030 maturity. There is a $10 million add-on feature for certain borrowing and improved leverage and liquidity covenants. However, the interest rates are slightly higher than the previous term loan. Marathon Asset Management is the new lender.
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QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.15 | Price Target: $0.2)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
A Sanguine Outlook For 2025
Rating: OUTPERFORM
2024 in the rearview mirror. The company reported Q4 revenue of $4.7 million and adj. EBITDA of $0.2 million, both of which were largely in line with our estimates of $4.6 million and $0.3 million, respectively. Notably, both revenue and adj. EBITDA for 2024 decreased from the prior year, which was largely attributed to key clients facing difficulties during the year and reduced spending or discontinued services entirely.
2025 revenue outlook appears more promising. Management indicated that the Q1 revenue outlook should significantly improve, with Q1 expected to achieve the highest quarterly revenue in company’s history, near $5 million. Notably, management indicated that it is currently not affected by the geopolitical environment or the impact of tariffs. As such, it remains sanguine about the opportunity for the company to achieve at least $20 million in revenue for full year 2025.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 16, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – Not Getting Revenue Traction
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.15 | Price Target: $0.26)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Not Getting Revenue Traction
Rating: OUTPERFORM
In-line results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $4.7 million and adj. EBITDA of $0.2 million, both of which were largely in line with our estimates of $4.6 million and $0.3 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. Notably, both revenue and adj. EBITDA for 2024 decreased from the prior year, which was largely attributed to key clients facing difficulties during the year and reducing spending or discontinuing services entirely.
A difficult year. During the company’s Q3 earnings call, management highlighted the loss of a large client and indicated that some of its other clients are facing financial hardship, even though management indicated that there was a strong pipeline, albeit with a long ramp-up period. As such, the year-end results were largely expected to be lackluster.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 15, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – First Cerebras Systems Location Secured
GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – Stop Work Order Received For Project NextGen Trial – No Impact On Other Programs
Bit Digital (BTBT/$1.85 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
First Cerebras Systems Location Secured
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Tier 3 Site. Bit Digital announced that it has secured the rights to a new data center site in Saint-Jérôme, Québec (to be known as Montreal-3). This site, which is under development, will support the previously announced 5MW colocation agreement with Cerebras Systems, a leader in generative AI infrastructure.
Details. The facility spans approximately 202,000 square feet on 7.7 acres. In addition to the current Cerebras agreement, the facility has future expansion potential, subject to utility approvals. The transaction was executed under a lease-to-own structure, which includes a fixed-price purchase option exercisable within 12 months. The lease term is 20 years, with two 5-year extension options. The facility is being retrofitted to Tier 3 standards. Bit Digital expects development costs to total approximately CAD $55 million (approximately $40MM USD), and a targeted go-live date of July 2025.
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GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$1.07 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer rleboyer@noblefcm.com | (212) 896-4625
Stop Work Order Received For Project NextGen Trial – No Impact On Other Programs
Rating: OUTPERFORM
GeoVax Has Received A Stop Work Order For The Phase 2b Trial. GeoVax has received a Stop Work order for its BARDA-sponsored Phase 2b trial testing of CM04S1 for COVID-19. We have known about other Project NextGen-funded COVID-19 trials that were halted, but hoped the CM04S1 program would continue.
Background On The Phase 2 Trial. In June 2024, BARDA (an office within HHS) selected CM04S1 for a Phase 2b trial to test efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety for protection against COVID-19 as part of Project NexGen. We had expected GeoVax to receive about $25 million for its work on trial design and supplies to be receive
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 14, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Moving Up in the League Table
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$0.93 | Price Target: $3.75)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Moving Up in the League Table
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Transformative acquisition closed. InPlay Oil recently closed its acquisition of Cardium light oil focused assets in the Pembina area of Alberta from Obsidian Energy for net consideration of approximately $301 million. The transaction more than doubles InPlay’s total output to 18,750 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). The assets are 68% weighted in oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) and have a low decline rate of 22%. Management expects greater production, a lower decline rate, and enhanced operational efficiency. Following the completion of the acquisition, InPlay had 167,636,627 shares issued and outstanding.
Share consolidation. Effective April 14, InPlay will implement a share consolidation based on one common share for six common shares. The consolidation was unanimously approved by the company’s board and by 96.56% of the votes cast during a special meeting of shareholders. Post-consolidation, InPlay will have approximately 27,939,438 common shares issued and outstanding. The shares are expected to begin trading on a post-consolidation basis two to three trading days following the effective date.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, April 11, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – Is It Time To Buy The Stock?
Saga Communications (SGA/$11.5 | Price Target: $18)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Is It Time To Buy The Stock?
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Attractive opportunity. The SGA stock is down 48% over the past year, which we believe is largely due to macroeconomic uncertainty impacting advertising revenue and a digital segment that is still early in its development. With some of the noise related to the late filing and activist shareholders quelled for the time being, the company is fully focused on its growth strategy. Given that radio stocks typically experience early cycle recoveries, we believe investors should have the SGA shares on their radar screens.
Cost-effective digital growth strategy. A key focus of the company is reducing costs that have no impact on revenue and continuing to emphasize the roll out of its blended digital advertising strategy. Notably, the blended strategy combines radio and digital advertising to provide a consistent message to customers on both mediums and to drive radio listeners to digital platforms. We view the company’s emphasis on the unique strategy favorably.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 10, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Working Capital
Snail (SNAL/$0.77 | Price Target: $4)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
Increasing Working Capital
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Completes a private placement. The Company completed a private placement offering of two unsecured convertible promissory notes for a combined total of $3.3 million. The notes were sold at a 10% discount to the principal amount and will pay a 5% Paid-In-Kind (PIK) annualized dividend. The proceeds will be used to increase working capital to support its projects and game releases in 2025.
Convertible features. The notes are convertible into shares of Class A Common Stock at $5.00 on any trading day during the five trading days prior to the conversion date. The notes mature in February 2026. Interest to be Paid-In-Kind (PIK) on the convertible notes will begin May 2025 and will be paid in 10 equal payments.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 9, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – A Strong U.S. Economy Relies on Abundant, Affordable and Reliable Energy Sources
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – New Business; Successful ReFi
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$25.87 | Price Target: $32)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
A Strong U.S. Economy Relies on Abundant, Affordable and Reliable Energy Sources
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Biden-era policies disadvantaged coal-fired power plants. In May 2024, the Environmental Protection Agency published a final rule that amended the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) rule to make it more stringent. The rule placed severe burdens on coal-fired power plants and required compliance with standards premised on the application of costly emissions-control technologies that, for many coal plants, were not commercially viable. The new carbon emission rules were expected to accelerate coal-fired power plant retirements.
Taking a pragmatic and realistic approach. On April 8, President Trump took actions through proclamation and executive order to, 1) reinvigorate the U.S. coal industry, 2) protect American energy from state overreach, 3) strengthen the reliability and security of the United States electric grid, and 4) provide two years of relief from stringent Biden-era environmental regulations by allowing certain coal plants to comply with a less stringent version of the MATS rule. Moreover, the actions are intended to reduce regulatory burdens and promote coal exports.
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V2X (VVX/$45.66 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA jgomes@noblefcm.com | 561-999-2262
New Business; Successful ReFi
Rating: OUTPERFORM
COBRA DANE. V2X has been awarded a $62 million contract extension to continue ensuring the operational readiness of the COBRA DANE radar system in Alaska. In addition to ensuring operational readiness, V2X has incorporated various engineering enhancements into this essential system, extending its capabilities and readiness. This full-spectrum support emphasizes V2X’s differentiated capabilities, in our view. The extension work is expected to be completed by March 2027.
TESS ID/IQ. V2X won a seat on the Bridge to Enduring Synthetic Training Environment Tactical Engagement Simulation Systems (TESS). This contract supports the U.S. Army’s TESS devices, a vital component of its live training capabilities, by extending their product life and ensuring they meet the Army’s evolving requirements. The ID/IQ contract includes a ten-year performance period consisting of a five-year base period and two options with a ceiling value of $921 million. This award complements V2X’s previously won $3.7 billion Warfighter Readiness task order.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 8, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Monica
GDEV (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – A More Profitable Growth Outlook
Euroseas (ESEA/$28.13 | Price Target: $44)
Mark Reichman mreichman@noblefcm.com | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau hbaldau@noblefcm.com |
Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Monica
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New time charter contract. Euroseas Ltd. executed a time charter contract for the M/V Monica at a gross daily rate of $23,500 for a minimum period of 24 months, with an option to extend to a maximum of 26 months at the charterer’s option. The M/V Monica is a 1,800 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) feeder container ship. The new charter is expected to commence between the end of April and mid-May 2025.
Attractive rate and improved charter coverage. The new time charter is an improvement over the previous contract rate of $16,000 per day and is expected to contribute EBITDA of $12.1 million during the minimum contracted period. The new time charter enhances Euroseas’ charter coverage for the remainder of 2025 and 2026 to ~94% and ~58%, respectively.
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GDEV (GDEV/$9.7 | Price Target: $70)
Michael Kupinski mkupinski@noblefcm.com | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler jmutchler@noblefcm.com |
A More Profitable Growth Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $97.5 million, modestly lower than our estimate of $101.0 million, but adj. EBITDA of $12.2 million was substantially better than our estimate of a loss of $1.9 million. The adj. EBITDA beat was largely driven by the company’s efficient use of selling and marketing expenses, which were 25% lower than our estimate.
Key operating metrics. In Q4, the company generated $94 million in bookings and had 292,000 monthly paying users (MPU). Bookings were largely in line with our expectations, while MPUs were modestly lower than we anticipated. Importantly, the decrease in MPU’s moderated from the quarter-over-quarter decrease experienced in Q3, and the company’s strategic marketing efforts appear to be gaining traction.
