Challenging Quarter and Near-term Outlook Remains Uncertain

Tuesday, May 19, 2020

EuroDry Ltd. (EDRY)

Challenging Quarter and Near-term Outlook Remains Uncertain

EuroDry Ltd. was formed on January 8, 2018 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands and trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker EDRY. EDRY is the product of a spin-off of the dry bulk fleet by Euroseas (ESEA) completed in May 2018. For every five ESEA shares, ESEA shareholders received one EDRY share. There are currently ~2.2 million EDRY shares outstanding. EuroDry operates in the dry bulk shipping markets. EuroDry’s operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an affiliated ship management company, and Eurobulk FE (Far East) Ltd, which are responsible for the day-to-day commercial and technical management and operation of the fleet. EuroDry employs the fleet on spot and period charters and through pool arrangements.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Adjusted 1Q2020 EBITDA of $0.8 million was weaker than expected due to lower TCE rates of $7,885/day. Call with management today at 10:00 am EST to discuss 1Q2020 results. The number is (877) 553-9962 and code is Eurodry.

    Lowering 2020 estimate.  Due to dry bulk market weakness, we are moving adjusted 2020 EBITDA estimate lower to $6.3 million based on TCE rates of $8,909/day, down from $11.5 million based on TCE rates of $11,671/day. Given the current weakness in the dry bulk market environment and COVID-19 uncertainty, we are forecasting that TCE rates remain weak this quarter before recovering in 2H2020. There were limited changes in the contract status update, with…



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Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd. (PANL) – Unique Business Model Tempers Impact of Challenging Market

Monday, May 18, 2020

Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd. (PANL)

Unique Business Model Tempers Impact of Challenging Market

Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd and its subsidiaries provide seaborne drybulk transportation services. It transports drybulk cargos including grains, coal, iron, ore, pig, iron, hot briquetted iron, bauxite, alumina, cement clinker, dolomite and limestone. The firm’s services include cargo loading, cargo discharge, vessel chartering, voyage planning and technical vessel management. The company derives all of its revenues from contracts of affreightment, voyage charters and time charters. Its strategy depends on focusing on increasing strategic contracts of affreightment, expanding capacity and flexibility by increasing its owned fleet and increasing backhaul focus and fleet efficiency.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    A challenging quarter, but unique and consistent business model delivered TCE rate outperformance. In a challenging dry bulk market environment, the unique business model once again delivered positive operating results. Adjusted 1Q2020 EBITDA of $2.9 million was below our estimate of $6.1 million mainly due to warmer weather that limited ice class demand in the Baltic Sea and hedging losses in the $2.5 million range, mainly on fuel.

    Adjusting 2020 EBITDA estimate to reflect current dry bulk market weaknessand near term uncertainty. While we remain convinced that a recovery is ahead in the second half of the year, similar to last year, we are taking a more conservative stance amid the current uncertainty. As a result, our EBITDA estimate moves down to $30.1 million, down from our previous estimate of $47.1 million, based on lower TCE rates of $12,179 (down from $13,423/day), which more than offset higher shipping days of 18,104 (up from 16,760), and…



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Unique Business Model Tempers Impact of Challenging Market

Monday, May 18, 2020

Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd. (PANL)

Unique Business Model Tempers Impact of Challenging Market

Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd and its subsidiaries provide seaborne drybulk transportation services. It transports drybulk cargos including grains, coal, iron, ore, pig, iron, hot briquetted iron, bauxite, alumina, cement clinker, dolomite and limestone. The firm’s services include cargo loading, cargo discharge, vessel chartering, voyage planning and technical vessel management. The company derives all of its revenues from contracts of affreightment, voyage charters and time charters. Its strategy depends on focusing on increasing strategic contracts of affreightment, expanding capacity and flexibility by increasing its owned fleet and increasing backhaul focus and fleet efficiency.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    A challenging quarter, but unique and consistent business model delivered TCE rate outperformance. In a challenging dry bulk market environment, the unique business model once again delivered positive operating results. Adjusted 1Q2020 EBITDA of $2.9 million was below our estimate of $6.1 million mainly due to warmer weather that limited ice class demand in the Baltic Sea and hedging losses in the $2.5 million range, mainly on fuel.

    Adjusting 2020 EBITDA estimate to reflect current dry bulk market weaknessand near term uncertainty. While we remain convinced that a recovery is ahead in the second half of the year, similar to last year, we are taking a more conservative stance amid the current uncertainty. As a result, our EBITDA estimate moves down to $30.1 million, down from our previous estimate of $47.1 million, based on lower TCE rates of $12,179 (down from $13,423/day), which more than offset higher shipping days of 18,104 (up from 16,760), and…



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Scorpio Bulkers (SALT) – Bolstering Liquidity Due to Near-term Market Weakness

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Scorpio Bulkers (SALT)

Bolstering Liquidity Due to Near-term Market Weakness

Scorpio Bulkers Inc is a shipping company based in Monaco. It owns and operates a fleet of modern mid to large-size dry bulk carriers which provide marine transportation for major bulks, which include iron ore, coal and grain and minor bulks which include bauxite, fertilizers and steel products internationally. In terms of its dead weight tonnage, its vessels are classified as Capesize, Kamsarmax and Ultramax, by the order of highest to lowest capacity, with Kamsarmax accounting for the highest revenue.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    1Q2020 results below expectations and a weak start to the year due to COVID-19 disruptions. Reported EBITDA was negative $100.1 million, but excluding non-cash items of $105.7 million, adjusted EBITDA was $5.6 million in 1Q2020, down sharply from $32.8 million in 1Q2019. Reported net losses of $124.7 million, or $18.12/diluted share, included mark-tomarket investment losses of $88.7 million and write-downs of $17.0 million on planned asset sales.

    Lowering 2020 EBITDA estimates to reflect 2Q2020 forward cover and the weaker than expected outlook. TCE rate weakness has lingered into the quarter due to the negative impact of the COVID-19 virus and several vessels have been repositioned away from weak markets. As a result, the 2Q2020 forward cover is muted with 64% of days booked at $7,149/day for Kamsarmaxes and 69% of days booked at $4,076/day for Ultramaxes. Given the slow start to the year and weaker forward cover, we are revising our 2020 EBITDA estimate to $23.2 million from $80.0 million, based on…



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Bolstering Liquidity Due to Near-term Market Weakness

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Scorpio Bulkers (SALT)

Bolstering Liquidity Due to Near-term Market Weakness

Scorpio Bulkers Inc is a shipping company based in Monaco. It owns and operates a fleet of modern mid to large-size dry bulk carriers which provide marine transportation for major bulks, which include iron ore, coal and grain and minor bulks which include bauxite, fertilizers and steel products internationally. In terms of its dead weight tonnage, its vessels are classified as Capesize, Kamsarmax and Ultramax, by the order of highest to lowest capacity, with Kamsarmax accounting for the highest revenue.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    1Q2020 results below expectations and a weak start to the year due to COVID-19 disruptions. Reported EBITDA was negative $100.1 million, but excluding non-cash items of $105.7 million, adjusted EBITDA was $5.6 million in 1Q2020, down sharply from $32.8 million in 1Q2019. Reported net losses of $124.7 million, or $18.12/diluted share, included mark-tomarket investment losses of $88.7 million and write-downs of $17.0 million on planned asset sales.

    Lowering 2020 EBITDA estimates to reflect 2Q2020 forward cover and the weaker than expected outlook. TCE rate weakness has lingered into the quarter due to the negative impact of the COVID-19 virus and several vessels have been repositioned away from weak markets. As a result, the 2Q2020 forward cover is muted with 64% of days booked at $7,149/day for Kamsarmaxes and 69% of days booked at $4,076/day for Ultramaxes. Given the slow start to the year and weaker forward cover, we are revising our 2020 EBITDA estimate to $23.2 million from $80.0 million, based on…



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Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) – Solid Quarter, But Weakness Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Monday, May 11, 2020

Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE)

Solid Quarter, But Weakness Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. is a US-based drybulk owner-operator focused on the Supramax/Ultramax mid-size asset class, which ranges from 50,000 and 65,000 deadweight tons in size; these vessels are equipped with onboard cranes allowing for the self-loading and unloading of cargoes, a feature which distinguishes them from the larger classes of drybulk vessels and provides for greatly enhanced flexibility and versatility- both with respect to cargo diversity and port accessibility. The Company transports a broad range of major and minor bulk cargoes around the world, including coal, grain, ore, pet coke, cement, and fertilizer. Eagle operates out of three offices, Stamford (headquarters), Singapore, and Hamburg, and performs all aspects of vessel management in-house including: commercial, operational, technical, and strategic.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Adjusted 1Q2020 EBITDA of $18.8 million was higher than expected due to high 1Q2020 forward cover and hedging gains. Solid forward cover of 85% of 1Q2020 available days booked at $10,300/day helped offset the dry bulk market weakness, and hedging gains of $7.9 million helped push EBITDA above our estimate of $13.9 million. In addition, lower G&A expenses partially offset lower TCE revenue and higher opex.

    Adjusting 2020 estimates to reflect 1Q2020 operating results, lower forward cover and weaker dry bulk market fundamentals. 2Q2020 is off to a slow start and forward cover is lower at 67% of available 2Q2020 days booked at $8,110/day. We are lowering estimated 2020 EBITDA to $60.0 million from $80.0 million, as softer market fundamentals have extended into the quarter and…



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Solid Quarter, But Weakness Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Monday, May 11, 2020

Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE)

Solid Quarter, But Weakness Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. is a US-based drybulk owner-operator focused on the Supramax/Ultramax mid-size asset class, which ranges from 50,000 and 65,000 deadweight tons in size; these vessels are equipped with onboard cranes allowing for the self-loading and unloading of cargoes, a feature which distinguishes them from the larger classes of drybulk vessels and provides for greatly enhanced flexibility and versatility- both with respect to cargo diversity and port accessibility. The Company transports a broad range of major and minor bulk cargoes around the world, including coal, grain, ore, pet coke, cement, and fertilizer. Eagle operates out of three offices, Stamford (headquarters), Singapore, and Hamburg, and performs all aspects of vessel management in-house including: commercial, operational, technical, and strategic.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Adjusted 1Q2020 EBITDA of $18.8 million was higher than expected due to high 1Q2020 forward cover and hedging gains. Solid forward cover of 85% of 1Q2020 available days booked at $10,300/day helped offset the dry bulk market weakness, and hedging gains of $7.9 million helped push EBITDA above our estimate of $13.9 million. In addition, lower G&A expenses partially offset lower TCE revenue and higher opex.

    Adjusting 2020 estimates to reflect 1Q2020 operating results, lower forward cover and weaker dry bulk market fundamentals. 2Q2020 is off to a slow start and forward cover is lower at 67% of available 2Q2020 days booked at $8,110/day. We are lowering estimated 2020 EBITDA to $60.0 million from $80.0 million, as softer market fundamentals have extended into the quarter and…



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Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (GNK) – Solid Quarter, But Rough Sledding Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Friday, May 8, 2020

Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (GNK)

Solid Quarter, But Rough Sledding Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Genco Shipping & Trading Limited, incorporated on September 27, 2004, transports iron ore, coal, grain, steel products and other drybulk cargoes along shipping routes through the ownership and operation of drybulk carrier vessels. The Company is engaged in the ocean transportation of drybulk cargoes around the world through the ownership and operation of drybulk carrier vessels. As of December 31, 2016, its fleet consisted of 61 drybulk carriers, including 13 Capesize, six Panamax, four Ultramax, 21 Supramax, two Handymax and 15 Handysize drybulk carriers, with an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 4,735,000 deadweight tons (dwt). Of the vessels in its fleet, 15 are on spot market-related time charters, and 27 are on fixed-rate time charter contracts. As of December 31, 2016, additionally, 19 of the vessels in its fleet were operating in vessel pools.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Adjusted 1Q2020 EBITDA of $17.9 million was below our estimate of $19.3 million, mainly due to lower than expected TCE rates of $9.8k/day, or ~$700 below our estimate. Operating results were partially insulated from weak market conditions due to the forward cover of 79% of 1Q2020 days booked at $10.9k/day, but the remainder of the quarter was weaker than expected. Scrubbers on Capes and lower downtime were positives versus last year.

    Lowering 2020 EBITDA estimate to $83.4 million from $108.2 million based on lower TCE rates of $10.7k/day due to dry bulk market weakness, tighter fuel spreads and a smaller fleet. Forward cover is not as attractive this quarter with 62% of 2Q2020 days booked at $6.8k/day, and EBITDA is likely to be much weaker in 2Q2020. Softer market fundamentals have extended into the quarter and…



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Solid Quarter, But Rough Sledding Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Friday, May 8, 2020

Genco Shipping & Trading Limited (GNK)

Solid Quarter, But Rough Sledding Ahead Before 2H2020 Recovery

Genco Shipping & Trading Limited, incorporated on September 27, 2004, transports iron ore, coal, grain, steel products and other drybulk cargoes along shipping routes through the ownership and operation of drybulk carrier vessels. The Company is engaged in the ocean transportation of drybulk cargoes around the world through the ownership and operation of drybulk carrier vessels. As of December 31, 2016, its fleet consisted of 61 drybulk carriers, including 13 Capesize, six Panamax, four Ultramax, 21 Supramax, two Handymax and 15 Handysize drybulk carriers, with an aggregate carrying capacity of approximately 4,735,000 deadweight tons (dwt). Of the vessels in its fleet, 15 are on spot market-related time charters, and 27 are on fixed-rate time charter contracts. As of December 31, 2016, additionally, 19 of the vessels in its fleet were operating in vessel pools.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Adjusted 1Q2020 EBITDA of $17.9 million was below our estimate of $19.3 million, mainly due to lower than expected TCE rates of $9.8k/day, or ~$700 below our estimate. Operating results were partially insulated from weak market conditions due to the forward cover of 79% of 1Q2020 days booked at $10.9k/day, but the remainder of the quarter was weaker than expected. Scrubbers on Capes and lower downtime were positives versus last year.

    Lowering 2020 EBITDA estimate to $83.4 million from $108.2 million based on lower TCE rates of $10.7k/day due to dry bulk market weakness, tighter fuel spreads and a smaller fleet. Forward cover is not as attractive this quarter with 62% of 2Q2020 days booked at $6.8k/day, and EBITDA is likely to be much weaker in 2Q2020. Softer market fundamentals have extended into the quarter and…



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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – Exceptional quarter to start the year on a positive note.

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)

Exceptional quarter to start the year on a positive note.

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp is a provider of dredging services in the United States. The company only’s operating segments is Dredging. Dredging involves the enhancement or preservation of navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand or rock. Its projects portfolio includes Coastal Restoration, Coastal Protection, Port expansion, and others.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    High equipment utilization and strong project execution drove higher profitability. Record 1Q2020 operating results beat expectations across the board due to strong growth in
    revenue, gross profit and EBITDA.

    Increasing 2020 EBITDA estimate to $159 million from $140 million. 1Q2020 will be best quarter of year, but outlook remains positive. Similar to last year, 1Q2020 is likely to be the strongest quarter of the year. While revenue and gross margin are likely to moderate over the rest of the year due to planned fleet downtime, several factors are positive for…


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Exceptional quarter to start the year on a positive note.

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD)

Exceptional quarter to start the year on a positive note.

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp is a provider of dredging services in the United States. The company only’s operating segments is Dredging. Dredging involves the enhancement or preservation of navigability of waterways or the protection of shorelines through the removal or replenishment of soil, sand or rock. Its projects portfolio includes Coastal Restoration, Coastal Protection, Port expansion, and others.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    High equipment utilization and strong project execution drove higher profitability. Record 1Q2020 operating results beat expectations across the board due to strong growth in
    revenue, gross profit and EBITDA.

    Increasing 2020 EBITDA estimate to $159 million from $140 million. 1Q2020 will be best quarter of year, but outlook remains positive. Similar to last year, 1Q2020 is likely to be the strongest quarter of the year. While revenue and gross margin are likely to moderate over the rest of the year due to planned fleet downtime, several factors are positive for…


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Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – A Strong Start to Year. Only Minor Disruptions So Far Despite COVID-19.

Friday, May 1, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

A Strong Start to Year. Only Minor Disruptions So Far Despite COVID-19.

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Another strong quarter driven by solid execution, especially in Marine business. 1Q2020 gross profit of $19.8 million and EBITDA of $12.2 million easily beat our estimates of $12.0 million and $6.2 million, respectively. Gross margin and EBITDA margin were ~400 basis points higher than expected mainly due to strong Marine execution and higher equipment utilization. Concrete also improved modestly. 1Q2020 backlog rebounded to $610 million from $572 million, with Marine up $22 million to $362 million and Concrete up $16 million to $247 million, a record. Bidding remains active in both segments.

    Increasing 2020 EBITDA estimate despite suspended guidance. Minor disruptions seen to date and bidding activity continues in both segments, but suspending guidance is the safe route, one similar to many other companies. There are increasing risks to existing projects, but work goes on and we expect EBITDA will move up more than…


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A Strong Start to Year. Only Minor Disruptions So Far Despite COVID-19.

Friday, May 1, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

A Strong Start to Year. Only Minor Disruptions So Far Despite COVID-19.

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Another strong quarter driven by solid execution, especially in Marine business. 1Q2020 gross profit of $19.8 million and EBITDA of $12.2 million easily beat our estimates of $12.0 million and $6.2 million, respectively. Gross margin and EBITDA margin were ~400 basis points higher than expected mainly due to strong Marine execution and higher equipment utilization. Concrete also improved modestly. 1Q2020 backlog rebounded to $610 million from $572 million, with Marine up $22 million to $362 million and Concrete up $16 million to $247 million, a record. Bidding remains active in both segments.

    Increasing 2020 EBITDA estimate despite suspended guidance. Minor disruptions seen to date and bidding activity continues in both segments, but suspending guidance is the safe route, one similar to many other companies. There are increasing risks to existing projects, but work goes on and we expect EBITDA will move up more than…


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