Exploring an Interesting Opportunity in a Traditional Business

Image: Pamela Silva, Univision (Wikimedia Commons)

The Investment Road Less Travelled Has More Opportunity, But Less Available Information

An expanding customer base has always been a solid reason for further exploration of an investment opportunity. An investor’s expectations of growth potential have the power to create initial intrigue and prompt further exploration. This exploration should, at a minimum, include actual data (not hunches), and outside estimates from experts in the field – along with a review of management’s plans.

One also has to understand competition, direct and indirect, and how that is expected to grow. And, of course, current profit and earnings breakdown with an idea of plans for the future. You may even explore if there is a chance the company is a possible acquisition target and how that may impact stock performance. Then, depending on the company or industry, less cursory digging should be done. This is where self-directed investors or small or mid-sized investment advisors get tripped up. They may not have access to someone knowledgeable enough about the company.

Opportunity to Think About

A co-worker asked the other day what I thought of traditional media companies in the U.S. as an investment, including TV and radio. Without thinking too deeply, I said what most people might say, the industry is spread thin as competition for people’s time and attention keeps growing. While anything is good at the right price, if the audience (customer base) is declining, that “right price” is going to be low.

He asked another question, how many Spanish-speaking people are immigrating to the U.S. each year, and what one product will they likely be using that is generally not consumed by English-speaking residents? Although I didn’t know there was a company that has approximately 65% market share of the Spanish-speaking market, I understood where his line of questioning was going – and became intrigued.

A Few Things I Learned

I did some Googling.

The Census Bureau’s monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) shows that the total foreign-born or immigrant population in the U.S. hit 47.9 million in September 2022. This is an increase of 2.9 million since January 2021.

Immigrants from Latin American countries other than Mexico account for 60 percent of the increase in the foreign-born population since January 2021. The Mexican-born population in the U.S. actually decreased by 4%.

At 143,000, the average monthly growth in the foreign-born population, which is 60% Hispanic, is at an all-time high pace.  

There is a company, Entravision (EVC), which is a diversified Spanish-language media company. They own both television and radio stations to reach Hispanic consumers across the United States.

Entravision owns and/or operates 53 primary television stations and is the largest affiliate group of both the top-ranked Univision television network and Univision’s TeleFutura network. They have television stations in 20 of the nation’s top 50 Hispanic markets. As far as radio, the company also operates one of the largest groups of primarily Spanish-language radio stations in the U.S.

My thoughts are while the business itself is getting fragmented, the rapidly growing demographic that is likely to tune in to an Entravision station is growing at a rapid pace. And there is very little competition.

 

An Interesting Time to Explore Spanish Language Media

While I’m still doing some due diligence and reading thoughts from the multiple analysts that cover EVC, including one whose research of the company is available on Channelchek (see it here), I’m waiting for their earnings report this Thursday (November 3).

If my intrigue is still high after Thursday, Noble Capital Markets is holding two lunches and a breakfast where investors can attend one and meet with management, hear them discuss their company, and ask any questions to clear up unanswered questions.

These meetings are in Florida, one in Boca Raton on November 8 and two in Central Florida (Orlando and Winter Park), on November 9. If you will be in the area and also find Entravision worth exploring, register for a breakfast or lunch meeting here.

Take Away

The investment “road less traveled” is often lined with gold but also requires a lot more digging to find useful information that makes you comfortable making a decision. Discovering actionable ideas and then exploring them is what Channelchek is about.

The In-Person “Meet the Management” Series, put on by Noble Capital Markets and Channelchek, is a good way for investment professionals and individuals to supplement the data and research on Channelchek with an opportunity most investors never get, a discussion over breakfast or lunch with management.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

October’s Stock Market Performance Has a Valuable Lesson

Image Credit: Jordan Doane (500px.com)

Looking Back at October and Forward to Year-End 2022

The stock market for October was a home run for many industries. In fact, only a few market sectors were negative, each by less than one percent. After a losing first three quarters in most categories, investors are now asking, are we out of the losing slump? Did I already miss the best plays? There are still two months left in 2022, and there are a number of expected events that could cause high volatility (up/down). If you’ve been a market spectator, you want to know, should I get on the field and maybe take advantage of this streak? If you’ve been involved and are now at a recent high, you may instead consider taking a seat for the last two months.

Let’s look back and then forward as we enter the final two months of the year. Below we look at the month behind us in stocks, gold, and crypto. There is something that may be unfolding is stocks that is worth steering around.

Major Market Indexes for October

Source: Koyfin

Large industrials, as measured by the Dow 30, had the best comparative performance in October. In fact, the Dow had its best month since 1976. Some investors have been rotating out of large high-tech and into more traditional businesses, like large industrial companies. Another reason it has gotten attention is of the 30 stocks in the Dow Industrials, at least 27 are expected to pay dividends; the lower stock prices from months of decline have raised the expected dividend yields to levels where investors are finding value and doing some reallocating. For example, Dow Chemicals (DOW)with a yield near 5% (plus any appreciations) or Verizon (VZ) at 7% can be appealing, especially for assets of retirees.

The small-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000, weren’t far behind the Dow 30. This group has been lagging for some time and, by many measures, including price/earnings, offers value, while many larger stocks are still considered overpriced. Another thing working in favor of small U.S.-based companies is a likely customer universe that is not hurt by a strong dollar and international trade. In fact, there are small companies that can be shown to have benefitted from a strong native currency and have a competitive advantage with lower borrowing needs. Many analysts expect continued outperformance of the small-cap sector as it offers value and less global disruption.

The top 500 largest stocks, as measured by the S&P 500, had a very good month but are being dragged down by the large weighting of a few huge companies that the market feels have gotten way ahead of where they should be reasonably priced. The Nasdaq 100, shown above as returning only around 3.6%, has been hurt by this index weighting as well. These indexes had once benefitted from these few stocks flying high during the pandemic; the post-pandemic world, as well as global headwinds, are now working against them.

Major Market Indexes Through 10/2022

Source: Koyfin

Investors have been taught that index funds and ETFs provide diversification, but that has never been true of Dow-indexed funds (30 stocks). And the S&P and Nasdaq 100, with heavy weightings in a few companies, only give the illusion of broad exposure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 relative performance during October may cause more investors to consider hand-selecting companies with lower P/Es, lower global exposure, and higher growth potential.

Sectors Within S&P Index

Source: Koyfin

Oil companies regained their lead as they have been a sector detached from other stocks since late 2019. The industrial sector was second and followed by the only other industry above double digits, finance. Most (not all) financial companies benefit from higher interest rates, and those that take deposits (short-term) and lend money (long-term) do best with a steep yield curve.

On the bottom of the list are consumer discretionary companies, which are hurt by the strong dollar and a weakening economy; this sector is followed by communication. Communication is worth a deeper dive as it exemplifies how the weighting of stocks in popular indexes can hurt index returns – some say high-flying, highly weighted stocks are even in a bubble.

Below the chart compares two names in the S&P 500 that are also represented in the communications index. Meta (META) is 17.70% of the index and is down 30% in October. AT&T (T) is 4.70% of the communications index; it returned nearly 20% for the month. The funds weighting methodology that worked to the advantage of index investors, until it didn’t, has worked against some index investors.

Source: Koyfin

There is a rivalry of sorts between larger, more accepted cryptocurrencies and gold. Gold wants to regain its centuries-old place as the hard asset that best represents safety, even in the worst conditions, and Bitcoin or Ether, which is looking for respect, as the alternative asset that represents safety.

Crypto has been loosely moving in the same direction as stocks all year. October was no exception, as its price per dollar rose significantly during the month. Gold, despite much worry in the world, continued a slow downtrend.

Gold and Bitcoin Performance

Source: Koyfin

Take Away

Stock market participants that held on finally got a month where it was hard not to come out ahead. The question now is, do you take the gains and sit tight while the fed tightening, election, war, and global recession settle? Or do you look at the current dynamics and allocate where the highest probability of success lies? Maybe small-cap value stocks or oil and gas companies.

There is one thing investors have been warned about repeatedly over the years by well-respected investors, including Michael Burry. There is a risk inherent in indexes now that a few extremely “overpriced” stocks represent a large percentage of index funds.

Investors evaluating smaller, individual stocks have found the data and analysis on Channelchek to be indispensable. Be sure to sign-up for Channelchek at no cost to receive unbiased research on companies that are less talked about, but may have a place in your portfolio mix.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1062

https://indexarb.com/dividendYieldSorteddj.html

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/xlc/holdings

Was the Recession Transitory?

Image Credit: Andrea Piacquado (Pexels)

Can We Wave Goodbye to Recession Talk Now that Q3 GDP is Positive?

Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the “advance estimate,” has shown we were not in a recession during the third quarter; instead, the economy expanded. This is a dramatic turn-around from the final data for the previous first two quarters of 2022, which show the U.S. economy contracted during each. Since the Spring, in the stock market, bad economic news has been met with buying, and good news has been met with selling. This GDP report has the power to change that back to more normal investor behavior.

The third quarter production report shows the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.6%  despite nearly 325 basis points of Fed tightening from a base close to zero earlier this year. This report should be great news for the stock market as it shows that a large part of the economy is growing even while stimulus and easy money is being removed. In addition to the headline news related to overnight bank lending rates, each Thursday after the market closes, the Fed releases information on how large its balance sheet is. This balance sheet holdings report can be viewed as how much money they have at work in the system, effectively acting as stimulus. They have been pulling money out at a pace that many expected would also doom growth. It has not, this too should be taken as a positive sign for stock market investors.

This positive GDP report also helps veterans of the market that did not like playing word games by referring to two-quarters of economic recession (lower case “r”) as something other than a Recession (upper case “R”). This definition had in the past always been automatic, without needing the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) to decide when to put a light-shaded bar on our economic timeline charts. We expected that they had the same definition.

GDP Plus Recessions in Gray

Image: Gross Domestic Product Product since 1947-Apris 2022. Gray bars indicate declared recessions.

In 2022 market watchers were all expected to say, “I don’t know what a recession is, I’m not an NBER economist.” This is because, for some reason,, the National Bureau of Economic Research decided not to use the standard metric and definition, it decided instead to be less scientific. The bureau, for the first time declared there is “no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions.” In other words, every set of economic conditions is different, and there is no specific threshold that must be met before a recession is declared. We no longer have to even talk about a recession until maybe next year.

Will they declare this quarter an Expansion (upper case “E”)? We’ll see.

Why this GDP Report is Important

Economic growth of nations is measured as the cost of all goods and services sold and provided from domestic-based resources. After all, wealth comes from output, not increases in currency in circulation. GDP measures this output. As you might imagine, an entire economy’s worth of output is a lot of number crunching by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). So they do two preliminary numbers before the final. This allows them a couple of months to harvest all the needed data. The final GDP report for this quarter is unlikely to show 2.6% growth as it will have been revised twice, but it is likely to approximate this first look.  

Source: Investopedia

Take Away

Good news (economic strength) has been viewed harshly by the market this year as it has been looked at with an eye toward the Fed needing to be more aggressive. Bad news has been embraced and actually caused market rallies.

The most recent GDP report has the power to change this. Despite the historically aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, the economy has grown. Perhaps fears of a deeper recession will pass, and stocks will regain their historic trend of always reaching new highs.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2022/09/22/when-will-this-officially-be-called-a-recession/?sh=357b1a558a0b

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gdp.asp#:~:text=GDP%20can%20be%20determined%20via,approach%2C%20and%20the%20income%20approach.

Small Caps are Bowling Over Large Caps – Here’s Why

Image Courtesy of Bowlero (BOWL)

Tailwinds Causing Investors to Love the Small Cap Sector

Investors have been reeling in U.S. small-cap stocks, and many have experienced the market rewarding them. As the U.S. dollar has been unrelentingly strong in 2022, the cost of products in any other currency has increased, this makes sales more difficult for multinational companies. The lower sales, of course, have the impact of weighing on the profits of U.S. companies that derive a large part of their earnings from overseas trade. This puts the smaller stocks at an advantage.

U.S. Dollar Tailwind

Goods valued in dollars, for example, using The WSJ Dollar Index which measures a basket of 16 currencies against the U.S. currency, are now up 16% on the year. This represents the minimum increase of the cost of products sold after the foreign exchange transaction, before inflation.  

This has little impact on small U.S.-based companies that don’t transact as much or at all outside the U.S. borders. This is because companies in the small-cap S&P 600 generate only 20% of their revenue outside the U.S., compared with large-cap S&P 500 stocks that generate 40% of sales internationally, according to FactSet.

This by itself gives small-cap stocks, in the aggregate, an edge over large-cap indexes like the S&P 500. However, small-caps haven’t been unscathed by the overall negative market sentiment this year. But, in recent months, value investors have been putting more upward pressure on the smaller, more U.S.-centric companies than on companies in the Nasdaq 100 or S&P 500. In fact, the small-cap Russell index is the only one of the three indexes showing green over the past three months. It has also been outperforming in shorter periods like one month, 10 days, and 5 days.

Value Tailwind

Wall Street often uses the ratio of a company’s share price to its earnings (P/E ratio) as a gauge for whether a stock appears cheap or overpriced. The small-cap universe, by this measure, is very attractive relative to themselves in recent years and certainly relative to large-cap valuations now.

The S&P 600 is trading at 10.8 times expected earnings over the next 12 months, according to FactSet as of Friday. That is below its 20-year average of 15.5 and well below the S&P 500’s forward price/earnings ratio of 15.3.

The Russell Small-Cap 2000 is up .36% versus the S&P 500, down 3.85%, and Nasdaq 100, down 7.70%. Not shown on the graph below, the S&P 600 small cap index is flat on the period.

Source: Koyfin

According to Royce Investment’s Third Quarter Chartbook, when comparing the stock market segments, four observations stand out. According to their Market Overview, these are:

1) Small-Cap Value, Small-Cap Core, and Small-Cap Growth are the cheapest segments of U.S. equities, 2) These segments are the only ones that are below their 25-year average valuation,

3) While all three value segments (Small-Cap, Mid-Cap, and Large-Cap) have nearly identical 25-year average valuations, their current valuations are vastly different, and

4) Mid-Cap Growth and Large-Cap valuations still have a long way to fall to reach their 25-year average valuations.

The presumption is with the segments all having the same 25-year average valuations and small-cap being below its average, while mid-cap and large-cap has to go down to reach its mean, that not only is small-cheap, but the other segments are still expensive.

Individually, some of the largest companies in the U.S. have shared their individual risks brought on by fluctuations in the currency market. Nike Inc., Fastenal Co., Domino’s Pizza Inc. and some others have pointed to negative foreign-exchange impacts during recent earnings calls. Microsoft warned of these pressures back in June.

Small-Cap Examples

Some standouts, not necessarily in either the S&P 600 or Russell 2000, small-cap indices, but found on Channelchek are, Bowlero (BOWL), with a market cap of 2.4 billion and performance of up 26.6% over the same three-month period shown in the chart above.  For the same period, Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL), with a market cap of 281.5 million, and some international business, is up 12.6%. And RCI Hospitality Holdings (RICK), with a market cap of $705.9 million, has a three-month return of 45.7%. These examples can be found on Channelchek with complete, up-to-date research, alongside many other actionable opportunities.  

Take Away

If yesterday’s trade isn’t working because of factors working against it, perhaps what wasn’t working yesterday is now coming into favor. The tailwind for smaller companies is coming from a few different places; they include having a higher percentage of domestic customers and also the law of reversion to the mean. The continued headwinds for larger companies include being much more likely to have problems that include foreign customer FX, and valuations that are still sitting above the 25-year average.

When researching small-cap stocks, remember that is exactly what no-cost Channelchek was made for.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.royceinvest.com/insights/chartbook/us-small-cap-mrkt-overview/index.html

https://www.wsj.com/podcasts/google-news-update/strong-dollar-boosts-bounceback-of-small-cap-stocks/

Is Leisure the Overlooked Market Sector?

Image Credit: Asad Photo Maldives (Pexels)

Travelers Gonna Travel!– Travel & Leisure Sector May Ignore the Recession

Economic activity in the U.S. contracted during the first half of the year. At the same time, inflation is running at 40-year highs. Investors looking to keep their money productive with reduced risk have focused on consumer staples and companies providing necessary services where demand isn’t impacted much by price. This is what experienced investors do when the economy falters. But this economy seems a bit different than previous periods of shrinking economic activity and rising prices. Jobs are still plentiful, and one industry, with a lot of pent-up demand leftover from the pandemic, is gearing up to exceed all expectations. That sector is leisure. We take a look below at the potential strength in the industry, where opportunities may be found, and how you could reduce timing risk with stocks on your shopping list.

Current State

More than half of Americans see leisure travel as a budget priority right now; in fact, 62% of Americans took at least one overnight trip between mid-May and mid-August. This is according to the latest The State of the American Traveler report compiled by Destination Analysis. Consumers continue to prioritize experiences over alternatives in their budget. As the U.S. Moves out of Fall and into the colder months, it appears the trend will continue. Chuck Artillio is co-owner of SinglesSki.com, winter-oriented travel, and leisure company. He told Channelchek, “Last year at this time, business was robust, yet bookings, as we stand now for the coming season, are already up over 100%.” Artillio added, “I’ve never seen anything like this before.”

The Destination Analysis survey also expects industrywide strength in demand for travel and leisure services in the last quarter of the year. The results show Fall and early Winter trip expectations are high. Over a quarter of Americans expect to take a trip in either October (26.6%), November (24.8%) or December (28.4%). This is up from June when 20% said they expected to take a trip in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Source: US Global Investors

The survey indicates that typical holiday travel includes visiting friends & family as the top driver for late year. However, second on the list of purposes for travel is the desire to return to a destination, followed by general atmosphere, and food & cuisine.

Source: US Global Investors

The survey produced hard data that showed Americans continue to prioritize having fun and relaxation when traveling. This, of course, can mean different things to different people. The majority said being in a quiet/peaceful location (82.5%) followed by beach time (69.7%), chilling-out poolside (67.3%), enjoying culinary experiences (65.6%), and luxury hotel experiences (60.4%).

Do Expectations Provide Opportunities?

An industry research report published this week titled, Entertainment & Leisure Industry Report: Ideas For Your Investing Shopping List, contains some ideas for interested investors. The authors of the leisure industry report include Michael Kupinski, Director of Research at Noble Capital Markets. Overall, Kupinski and Noble’s research associates find the current state of the economy as one that provides a “discount rack” of stocks that can weather a further downturn and may be the first to rise as the recovery seems imminent. He provides information and careful analysis on some stocks that he believes have favorable attributes, go here for in-depth details of these companies.

The analysts suggest investors develop a shopping list and concede that recognizing a turning point in market direction is the “hard part.” But they have suggestions for that as well. These include nibbling at the targets on your list to scale in over a period of time. This averaging in to stocks on your shopping list will lower the risk of picking one day to pile in, which may turn out to be bad timing.

Take Away

Down markets bring opportunity. They always have, and there is no reason to believe this time will be different. Finding sectors with promise, as the travel and leisure sector is now showing, then diving into research to select those in the sector with the most promise, followed by a decision to average in to the market, is one recognized way to put yourself in a position to benefit from the current “discount rack” that many stocks now seem to be on.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Elon Musk’s Smoking New Product

Image Credit: DonkeyHotey (Flickr)

Elon Musk’s Hair-Brained Ideas are Very Marketable

If your last name was Musk and one of your companies created a perfume, what would you name it? Perhaps Eau de Elon, or S3XY, an outlandish guess would be Neurastink, or simply Elon’s Musk. Here’s a hint, Musk’s perfume is a product of The Boring Company, the company that builds tunnels to enable rapid point-to-point transportation. Before this fragrance thrower, the company’s only other product was a flame thrower. So naturally, the company decided to call their new perfume, Burnt Hair. And it has already sold $1,000,000 worth.

Image: The Boring Company

A bottle of what his company referred to as ‘the essence of repugnant desire,’ will set you back about Ð1,666 or $100 USD. That’s if you buy it online. There is now an Ebay aftermarket where resellers are looking to fetch up to Ð16,666 for the product that was only released this week – 10,000 bottles of Burnt Hair have already been sold as of Wednesday morning.

“Just like leaning over a candle at the dinner table, but without all the hard work” – Boring Company Website

Image: The Boring Company

When he’s not tunneling, launching rockets, reinventing things on four wheels, neuralinking, or tweeting, Musk does keep busy with other strokes of brilliance. Did you know that in 2020 Tesla (TSLA) launched its own brand of tequila? That year Tesla, the world’s most valuable automaker,  also offered limited edition satin short-shorts.

Image Credit: Tesla

It isn’t clear what the inspiration was for this new product entry; developing a perfume that has earned revenue of $1,000,000 within a couple of days of launch is quite a feat, although certainly easier than colonizing Mars, and buying a microblogging social media company. Two things on Musk’s To-Do list that he seems to have fallen behind on.  

The Boring Company product page doesn’t say whether the fragrance is a limited edition item – just in time for Halloween or a long-term offering from The Boring Company. Something more exciting than a company that usually just sells holes in the ground.

Paul Hofman

Managing Editor, Channechek

Sources

https://www.boringcompany.com/burnthair

https://www.reuters.com/lifestyle/oddly-enough/elon-musk-sells-1-million-worth-quirky-new-perfume-burnt-hair-2022-10-12/

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/ShortShorts

Reading Between Michael Burry’s Lines

Image Source: @michaeljburry (Twitter)

Michael Burry’s Advice for Companies to Become Better Values

After my morning coffee and check on stock futures, I peruse Twitter. Coffee is necessary when you may need to translate cryptic messages from tweeters like Dr. Michael Burry. This week, the hedge fund manager, famous for his foresight and creativity in shorting subprime mortgages before the mortgage crisis in 2008, has been very active on the microblogging platform. Two tweets from October 5th are newsworthy, considering their source, their insight, and the concern they convey are described below.

The first reads: “Low price/cash flow businesses are different today vs. 2000 because they will buy back stock, buy back debt at a discount, and in general manage capital structure better. Makes them statistical value – math problems that more or less must work out.”

The second says, “Companies that are heavily leveraged but have the cash flow and termed out debt have options today, including reducing their debt loads at a significant discount brought on by higher rates. But as Graham said, in such a case, better off buying the stock.”

Taking these two tweets together, they make sense. Twenty years ago, interest rates were the lowest they had been since 1965; during the last week in December, plummeting 30-year mortgage rates had broken below 6%. Despite cheaper money, corporate treasurers and finance officers didn’t use the situation to shore up their capital structure and build a better base to grow on. The equity markets were weak from August 2000 until May 2009, after the financial crisis that in part came about because of how the cheap money was used.

Companies that are not stretched and are earning money today have the choice of strengthening their financial foundation by either buying their stock at today’s bearish prices. A stock buyback has the effect of reducing shares available in the market as they are now in the company’s treasury. Reduced float tends to increase the price and benefits shareholders. The company does have the option of selling these shares should an opportunity present itself where it would like to raise capital selling previously available shares.

Burry also mentions leveraged companies. Having just come off of 40-year lows in interest rates, it was, in many cases, prudent for companies to leverage themselves with cheap money. These loans, present-valued at today’s higher rates, can be negotiated and paid off at a discount. For companies with adequate cash flow, they may be able to substantially reduce debt for a fraction of the principal amount. Here is how to best get your head around this, if you are a lender and the borrower is paying you 2%, and rates are now 6%, how much less than the borrowed amount would the borrower have to give you in order for you to do better than breaking even? You can lend one-third of the money at 6% and earn the same cash amount. So the borrower is in a great negotiating position.

Michael Burry makes no secret of the fact that he is an avid reader. “Graham” refers to Benjamin Graham the “father of value investing.” Burry reminds us that, according to this historically significant, well-published value investor, investors and companies are generally better off buying back their own stock.

Take Away

There are showmen that are on TV and keep their jobs by keeping viewers glued to their TV sets, and there are others that comment on the market for less-commercial reasons. Those on TV and writing on well-read sites like Yahoo Finance are worth reading to understand what others are reading. Proven, outside the mainstream thinking is worth paying attention to in order to diversify the information your weighing as an investor.

You can even think of it this way; no one pays Burry for advertising on Twitter accounts used by Burry or some other well-followed investors. Whereas mainstream news only exists because of paid-for advertising from companies and industries that they cover. This doesn’t mean he will always be correct, but, who might be less biased?

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Source

Twitter @michaeljburry

Michael Burry Sees Positive in Elon Musks Twitter Stake



Michael Burry Couldn’t Resist Tweeting a Few Words About Twitter’s Largest Shareholder

 

Hedge fund manager Michael Burry (recognized from the book and movie “The Big Short”) has a substantial following of investors that peruse his firm’s investment positions and analyze his Twitter musings. Last year his firm’s growing short position in Tesla (TSLA) made news. This week he openly applauded Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk after he was appointed to Twitter’s Board of Directors. Burry’s sentiments were in a Tweet to his 676 thousand followers.

 

Dr. Michael J. Burry

Michael Burry, who is perceived to be temperamental, will often delete
his Tweets
shortly after posting and has frequently deactivated his blue check-marked account. The Scion Asset Management founder, who is also a medical doctor, seems to see things through a different eye and uses social media to vent and express frustration – then, he usually unwinds his posts like a bad trade.

Elon Reeve Musk

Elon Musk is a frequent Twitter user and seems to revel in the attention his posts attract. He is not one to shy from controversy. Some of his posts and comments to his 81 million followers have complained about the social media platform’s content moderation and heavy and uneven handedness.

Burry’s Point of View

When Musk, currently the richest guy in the world, disclosed his 9.2% ownership stake in Twitter, Michael Burry expressed his approval on Twitter under his pseudonym “Cassandra.” The short but controversial Tweet has since been taken down. Musk’s ownership position places him as the largest shareholder of Twitter and warranted an invite to become a Board member, which he accepted.

 

 

The hedge fund manager’s response to the news that the Tesla CEO, who’s stock value he once thought was “ridiculous,” may now have a big say in the direction of Twitter was one of approval. Burry used an editorial from The Boston Globe to define his words which read, “Of course @ElonMusk buying enough shares to control Twitter would be good for America. Period.” The Tweet (see image above) has since been deleted.

 


Tweet from Twitter’s CEO Parag Agrawal

 

The Editorial

The editorial discusses how the Washington Post and the New York Times once dismissed a report in The New York Post related to the contents of the MacBook hard drive owned by the son of then-presidential candidate Joe Biden. Twitter, during the election, restricted the New York Post story from being circulated on its platform. Twitter went as far as to suspend the account of The New York Post related to the news.

 

Excerpt from Boston Herald, April 3, 2022

 

As the Boston Globe editorial points out, the Washington Post and New York Times are now admitting the laptop hard drive was genuine (18 months later). The feeling Burry seems to be expressing is that a more open social media platform would not have censored this story, and less censorship is positive for the country.

Dr. Burry seems to believe that Elon Musk will help steer the company toward a freer exchange of ideas and information.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

 

Suggested Reading



Michael Burry Adjusts Tesla Position



Why Michael Burry has Better Opportunity Than Cathie Wood





Is the Index Bubble Michael Burry Warned About Still Looming?



Twitter Gets a New Board Member Who Instantly Causes Stock to Rocket

 

Sources

https://nypost.com/2022/04/06/big-short-investor-elon-musks-twitter-buy-good-for-america/

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-twitter-elon-musk-tesla-hunter-biden-2022-4

https://www.bostonherald.com/2022/04/03/editorial-the-hunter-biden-train-wreck-rolls-over-times-post/

https://www.businessinsider.com/twitter-new-york-post-hunter-biden-article-lawfully-restricted-fec-2021-9

https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/status/1511136888664510464

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1460370293978013699

https://nypost.com/2022/03/30/washington-post-admits-hunter-biden-laptop-is-real/

 

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Pros and Cons of a Company Like Berkshire Hathaway in your Portfolio


Image: BuffettNews.com


Berkshire Hathaway’s Annual Report Highlights Pros and Cons of Investing in a Giant

 

There were a few surprises in Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders released Saturday, the least of these will probably garner a good deal of attention at the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting. As announced by Mr. Buffett in the letter, “’Cousin” Jimmy Buffett has designed a pontoon “party” boat that is now being manufactured by Forest River, a Berkshire subsidiary. The boat will be introduced on April 29 at our Berkshire Bazaar of Bargains. And, for two days only, shareholders will be able to purchase Jimmy’s masterpiece at a 10% discount. Your bargain-hunting chairman will be buying a boat for his family’s use. Join me.” Other, more critical but less fun surprises are covered below.

 

Impact of interest Rates on Berkshire

Berkshire’s balance sheet includes $144 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Of this sum, $120 billion is held in U.S. Treasury bills. US T-bills are structured to mature in one year or less. At least two things are worth noting from this. First, T-bills as of February 25th are yielding from .03% in a one-month maturity, to 1.13% out a full year. Most expect the Fed to tighten during 2022, with some forecasters expecting as many as eight 25bp to 50bp (0.25% to 0.50%) increases each. If the Fed does tighten by only 25bp eight times it will likely serve to raise the T-bill curve levels up 2% or more. A 2% increase on the “risk free” rate would add $2.4 billion to Berkshires bottom line.  In 2021 Berkshire Hathaway reported revenue of $90 billion. The interest rate hike would be meaningful to the companies earnings. The other interesting fact worth paying attention to is that the amount Berkshire Hathaway owns in U.S. Treasuries is equal to 0.50% of the publicly held national debt of the U.S. If Berkshire should go on a buying spree and not roll their maturing T-bills, this by itself could cause upward pressure on U.S. interest rates. 

The CEO’s letter to shareholders made clear that, although they have committed to holding $30 billion in cash, they would prefer not to have as much excess cash available as they do. There is also a concern when looking to invest in public entities that interest rates that are low push the prices of all productive investments upward, whether these are stocks, real estate, farms, oil wells, etc.. Buffett writes, “Other factors influence valuations as well, but interest rates will always be important.”

 

Why Not Repurchase Shares?

Buffett explains there are three ways to increase investor value. First and most important is to increase the long-term earning power of Berkshire’s controlled businesses through internal growth or by making acquisitions. Currently, internal opportunities deliver better returns than acquisitions. Berkshire’s resources are far greater than available opportunities. The second method is buying stock in good companies.  While there are times when there are many attractive opportunities, Buffett writes, “Today, though, we find little that excites us.”

So, if Berkshire Hathaway is such a good investment, why not repurchase shares and allow the company to multiply its benefit to itself? In answering this question, Buffett says about share repurchase, “Through that simple act, we increase your share of the many controlled and non-controlled businesses Berkshire owns. When the price/value equation is right, this path is the easiest and most certain way for us to increase your wealth.” During the past two years, Berkshire did repurchase 9% of their outstanding shares.  Buffett says, “I want to underscore that for Berkshire repurchases to make sense, our shares must offer appropriate value. We don’t want to overpay for the shares of other companies, and it would be value-destroying if we were to overpay when we are buying Berkshire.”

Take-Away

The success of Berkshire Hathaway and the “Oracle of Omaha” that remains at the helm are worth watching if you’re an investor at any level. In addition to the decades of success, there is another story of big versus small or even young versus old. It’s the story of a company too large to efficiently benefit from its success. While their decision-making capacity may be second to none, much of their massive “firepower” remains underutilized. This makes Berkshire Hathaway worth considering as a core long-term holding in much the same way one invests in a large balanced mutual fund focused on stable growth. Investors that seek companies with maximum efficiency and capital deployment with far more growth potential should consider allocating at least a portion of their investments to smaller well researched companies. The data and research within Channelchek focus exclusively on small and microcap companies that aren’t burdened by billions in underperforming assets. Sign-up for daily emails and access to top-tier research.

 

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

 

 

Suggested Reading



It’s Officially Warren Buffett Season – Hints on What to Expect



Long Term Retirement Money and Fledgling Companies





Is GDP Growth Transitory and Inflation Persistent?



Why Goldman Says to Buy the Dip

 

Sources

https://datalab.usaspending.gov/americas-finance-guide/#_blank

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/26/read-warren-buffetts-annual-letter-to-berkshire-hathaway-shareholders.html

https://www.forestriverinc.com/Our-Products/Pontoon-Boats

https://omaha.com/business/warren-watch-buffett-cousins-warren-and-jimmy-share-an-on-air-moment/article_40fec2ad-c1c3-5d12-9c1b-8b6319e73670.html


 

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Persuasion, Trust, and Money



How Anna Sorokin “Inventing Anna” and Others Easily Con Smart Strangers

 

Maybe she had so much money she just lost track of it. Maybe it was all a misunderstanding.

That’s how Anna Sorokin’s marks explained away the supposed German heiress’s strange requests to sleep on their couch for the night, or to put plane tickets on their credit cards, which she would then forget to pay back.

The subject of a new Netflix series, “Inventing Anna,” Sorokin, who told people her name was Anna Delvey, conned over $250,000 out of wealthy acquaintances and high-end Manhattan businesses between 2013 and 2017. It turns out her lineage was a mirage. Instead, she was an intern at a fashion magazine who came from a working-class family of Russian immigrants.

Yet the people around her were quick to accept her odd explanations, even creating excuses for her that strained credulity. The details of the Sorokin case mirror those from another recent Netflix production, “The Tinder Swindler,” which tells the story of an Israeli conman named Simon Leviev. Leviev persuaded women he met on the dating app to lend him large sums of money with similarly unbelievable claims: He was a billionaire whose enemies were trying to track him down and, for security reasons, couldn’t use his own credit cards.

 

This article was republished with permission from   The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Vanessa Bohns, Associate Professor of Organizational Behavior, Cornell University.

 

How is it that so many people could have been gullible enough to buy the fantastical stories spun by Sorokin and Leviev? And why, even when “[t]he red flags were everywhere” – as one of Sorokin’s marks put it – did people continue to believe these grifters, spend their time with them and agree to lend them money?

As a social psychologist who has written a book about our surprising power of persuasion, I don’t see this as an unusual glitch of human nature. Rather, I view the stories about Sorokin and Leviev as examples of bad actors exploiting the social processes people rely on every day for efficient and effective human communication and cooperation.

 

Image: Anna Sorokin in Manhattan courtroom

 

To Trust is to be Human

Despite the belief that people are skeptics by nature, primed to shout “gotcha!” at any mistake or faux pas, this simply isn’t the case. Research shows that people tend to default to trusting others over distrusting them, believing them over doubting them and going along with someone’s self-presentation rather than embarrassing them by calling them out.

Elle Dee, a DJ whom Delvey once asked to pick up a 35,000-euro bar tab, described the ease with which people went along with Delvey’s claims: “I don’t think she even had to try that hard. Despite her utterly unsound story, people were all-too-eager to buy it.”

It still might be hard to believe that people in Sorokin’s circle would willingly hand over their money to someone they hardly knew.

Yet psychologists have watched participants hand over their money to complete strangers for many years across hundreds of experiments. In these studies, participants are told they are taking part in various types of “investment games” in which they are given the opportunity to hand over their money to another participant in the hopes of receiving a return on their investment.

What’s fascinating about these studies is that most participants are cynical about ever seeing their money again – let alone any returns on their investment – and yet they still hand it over. In other words, despite deep reservations, they still choose to trust a complete stranger.

There’s something deeply human about this impulse. Humans are social creatures, and trusting one another is baked into our DNA. As psychologist David Dunning and his colleagues have pointed out, without trust it is hard to imagine endeavors like Airbnb, car shares or a working democracy having any success.

 

Lies Are the Exception, Not the Norm

Of course, Sorokin’s requests were often accompanied by elaborate explanations and justifications, and you might wonder why so few people seemed to doubt the veracity of her claims. Yet just as trust is a default of human interaction, a presumption of sincerity is a default expectation of basic communication.

This maxim of communication was first proposed by Paul Grice, an influential philosopher of language. Grice argued that communication is a cooperative endeavor. Understanding one another requires working together. And to do that, there must be some ground rules, one of which is that both parties are telling the truth.

In an era of “truthiness” and “fake news,” such a premise may seem absurd and na?ve. But people lie far less than you might think; in fact, if the default assumption were that the person you were talking to was lying, communication would be nearly impossible. If I challenged you on whether you read every book you claimed to have read, or whether the steak you had last night was really overcooked, we’d never get anywhere.

Researchers have found experimental evidence for what is sometimes called the “truth default.” In one series of studies, researchers asked participants to evaluate whether statements were true or false. Sometimes the participants were interrupted so they couldn’t fully process the statements. This allowed the researchers to get at people’s default assumption: When in doubt, would they default to belief or disbelief?

It turns out that when participants weren’t able to fully process statements, they tended to simply assume they were true.

 

A Reluctance to Accuse

Even if Sorokin’s marks were to doubt her story, it’s unlikely that they would have called her out on it.

The sociologist Erving Goffman’s classic theory of “facework” argues that it is as uncomfortable for us to call someone else out – to suggest they aren’t who they are presenting themselves to be – as it is to be the person called out. Even when people see someone doing something they disagree with, they’re loath to say anything.

Other studies have explored this phenomenon. One found that people hesitate to call others out for using racist language they disagree with or for sexual harassment.

As much as you’d like to believe that if you were in the shoes of Sorokin’s and Leviev’s targets you would have been emboldened to blow the lid off the whole charade, chances are that rather than make things uncomfortable for everyone, you’d simply go along with it.

The tendency to trust, believe and go along with other people’s explanations of events may seem disadvantageous. And it’s true, these inclinations can expose people. But without trust, there is no cooperation; without assuming others are telling the truth, there is no communication; and without accepting people for what they present to the world, there is no foundation on which to build a relationship.

In other words, the very features that look like glitches when exploited are in fact the very essence of what it means to be human.

 

Suggested Reading



Equity Markets Give a Lesson in Behavioral Psychology



Should Investors Listen to Influencers?





The Micro and Macro of Economics and Human Behavior



Why Zoom Meetings Can Leave You Fatigued

 

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How Reliable is the Super Bowl Indicator


Image Credit: Fabricio Trujillo (Pexels)


The Super Bowl Indicator, If You’re Long You May Want to Root For the Rams

 

If you’re choosing between watching
the Olympics or the Super Bowl, this may help. Sunday night around 6pm ET, the
women’s 300M speedskating relay will be competing head-to-head against Bengals
versus Rams. While the Winter Olympics only comes around once every four years
and includes countries from around the world, for investors the annual big football game between the top two cities is considered to be a remarkable harbinger for
market moves.

So if you’re concerned about what the market may do Monday morning and throughout the rest of the year, you may not want to pass up on what’s going on in Los Angeles. Many say the big game has statistical significance to the market returns for the year, and if you’re long stocks, you should be cheering for the Rams, here’s why. The Super Bowl Indicator is considered one of the most consistent market predictors of the stock market. And as most investors today will tell you, the stock market could stand to gain a few yards this year.  After all, even the Dow has returned a negative 2.91% since the beginning of the year.

Football to the Rescue?

In the late 1970s, sportswriter Leonard Koppett discovered a connection between who won the National Football League’s (NFL) championship game and how the stock market did over the following 11 months. Since then, market strategist Robert H. Stovall kept tracking it. Stovall passed away in 2020, but the tradition is alive and well.

At its most basic level, the Super Bowl Indicator predicts that if the winning team is from the National Football Conference (NFC) or was part of the NFL prior to the 1970 merger with the AFL, then stocks will be bullish for the year. If victory instead goes to the team that comes from the AFC, then the market will be bearish over the remainder of the year.

From 1967-2015, the indicator was accurate 40 times out of 49 years. That’s an accuracy rate of 82%. Hard to beat that however, over the past six years, the indicator has given some false readings. As of the 2021 Super Bowl, the indicator lost some of its magic and has been right 41 out of 55 games, that’s a 75% win rate.

During the years 2016 and 2017, when two AFC teams won, the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots, the market defied the indicator and rose. Then in 2018, when the Philadelphia Eagles won, an NFC team, the market fell.

During the 2019 and 2020 Super Bowls, two more AFC teams won, the Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs, and we experienced strong markets.

Finally, in 2021 after a five-year stretch where the indicator kept followers out of the market, it sent the correct signal. The Buccaneers, an NFC team, won, and the market rose about 27%.

2022 Super Bowl

The Rams are the team to pick if you’re long, whereas a Bengal win would indicate the market closes in negative territory.

It’s science, right? Sure, the same quality of science as the Santa Claus Rally that didn’t come last year. Or the sell in May folks that walked away and missed the double-digit rally that occurred through October. Or the more recent “January effect” that forgot it was supposed to lift stocks – the Superbowl indicator may be remarkable, but it probably isn’t useful.

The truth is the ability to predict market direction based on the classification of the team that spills the most Gatorade at the end is more fun than functional. What is functional is a portfolio built with solid blocking and tackling using fundamentals. There is no substitute for lining up the right players for your portfolio, then putting them in play when you think they will contribute best to your holdings. Fundamental analysis combined with any number of entry methods is what builds winning portfolios.

When choosing stocks to add to your line-up this year, let Channelchek do some of your blocking and tackling.  Sign-up for research and articles sent to your inbox throughout the day. And if you want to do some more serious scouting, the NobleCon18 Conference in April is free
to investors
.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

 

Suggested Reading



Does the Fed’s Digital Currency Report Indicate They’re Dropping the Ball?



How Lovers Spend Money on Valentine’s Day





Esports: Show me the Money!



Toilet Paper Sales Unravel as Households are Flush with Paper Goods

Sources

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonard_Koppett

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_indicator


 

Stay up to date. Follow us:

 

How Reliable is the Super Bowl Indicator?


Image Credit: Fabricio Trujillo (Pexels)


The Super Bowl Indicator, If You’re Long You May Want to Root For the Rams

 

If you’re choosing between watching
the Olympics or the Super Bowl, this may help. Sunday night around 6pm ET, the
women’s 300M speedskating relay will be competing head-to-head against Bengals
versus Rams. While the Winter Olympics only comes around once every four years
and includes countries from around the world, for investors the annual big football game between the top two cities is considered to be a remarkable harbinger for
market moves.

So if you’re concerned about what the market may do Monday morning and throughout the rest of the year, you may not want to pass up on what’s going on in Los Angeles. Many say the big game has statistical significance to the market returns for the year, and if you’re long stocks, you should be cheering for the Rams, here’s why. The Super Bowl Indicator is considered one of the most consistent market predictors of the stock market. And as most investors today will tell you, the stock market could stand to gain a few yards this year.  After all, even the Dow has returned a negative 2.91% since the beginning of the year.

Football to the Rescue?

In the late 1970s, sportswriter Leonard Koppett discovered a connection between who won the National Football League’s (NFL) championship game and how the stock market did over the following 11 months. Since then, market strategist Robert H. Stovall kept tracking it. Stovall passed away in 2020, but the tradition is alive and well.

At its most basic level, the Super Bowl Indicator predicts that if the winning team is from the National Football Conference (NFC) or was part of the NFL prior to the 1970 merger with the AFL, then stocks will be bullish for the year. If victory instead goes to the team that comes from the AFC, then the market will be bearish over the remainder of the year.

From 1967-2015, the indicator was accurate 40 times out of 49 years. That’s an accuracy rate of 82%. Hard to beat that however, over the past six years, the indicator has given some false readings. As of the 2021 Super Bowl, the indicator lost some of its magic and has been right 41 out of 55 games, that’s a 75% win rate.

During the years 2016 and 2017, when two AFC teams won, the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots, the market defied the indicator and rose. Then in 2018, when the Philadelphia Eagles won, an NFC team, the market fell.

During the 2019 and 2020 Super Bowls, two more AFC teams won, the Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs, and we experienced strong markets.

Finally, in 2021 after a five-year stretch where the indicator kept followers out of the market, it sent the correct signal. The Buccaneers, an NFC team, won, and the market rose about 27%.

2022 Super Bowl

The Rams are the team to pick if you’re long, whereas a Bengal win would indicate the market closes in negative territory.

It’s science, right? Sure, the same quality of science as the Santa Claus Rally that didn’t come last year. Or the sell in May folks that walked away and missed the double-digit rally that occurred through October. Or the more recent “January effect” that forgot it was supposed to lift stocks – the Superbowl indicator may be remarkable, but it probably isn’t useful.

The truth is the ability to predict market direction based on the classification of the team that spills the most Gatorade at the end is more fun than functional. What is functional is a portfolio built with solid blocking and tackling using fundamentals. There is no substitute for lining up the right players for your portfolio, then putting them in play when you think they will contribute best to your holdings. Fundamental analysis combined with any number of entry methods is what builds winning portfolios.

When choosing stocks to add to your line-up this year, let Channelchek do some of your blocking and tackling.  Sign-up for research and articles sent to your inbox throughout the day. And if you want to do some more serious scouting, the NobleCon18 Conference in April is free
to investors
.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

 

Suggested Reading



Does the Fed’s Digital Currency Report Indicate They’re Dropping the Ball?



How Lovers Spend Money on Valentine’s Day





Esports: Show me the Money!



Toilet Paper Sales Unravel as Households are Flush with Paper Goods

Sources

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonard_Koppett

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_indicator


 

Stay up to date. Follow us:

 

2022 Best of


Channelchek is the investment community dedicated exclusively to small and micro-cap companies and their industries. Channelchek is the nation’s top free distribution platform dedicated to providing company-sponsored equity research in the small and microcap sectors.

Were now seeking nominations for The 2022 Best Small and Microcap Blog list and also our 2022 Best Vlog for Small and Microcap Investors list. Both are articles that we will publish in March 2022. 

As we move into the new year, we’d like to recognize other top-tier content in both the written and video mediums that also benefit the informational needs of small and microcap investors.

The deadline for submissions is February 22, 2022.

Our annual “Best of…” lists seek to identify and honor bloggers and vloggers who have achieved positions of trust and influence among investors interested in companies with market caps below $3b.

Nominations may be submitted using the links below.

Any individual or organization can submit multiple nominations. Nominations may also be submitted confidentially, as indicated on the form. 

Channelchek’s editorial team may conduct additional research on nominees and their contributions and followers. We may contact nominators and nominees for more information to support a nomination.

We expect to publish both lists, The 2022 Best Small and Microcap Blog list and also our 2022 Best Vlog for Small and Microcap Investors list, during the month of February 2022.  

Make your nomination now.

 Blog / Newsletter Nomination

 Vlog Nomination