Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Strong Q3 results. The company reported another strong quarter, beating our estimates on both revenue and adj. EBITDA. Revenue of $26.0 million was 41% better than our forecast of $18.4 million and adj. EBITDA of $2.4 million beat our forecast of $1.8 million by 34%.
Sell-side revenue jumps. Sell-side revenue from Colossus SSP continues to drive the company’s impressive growth. The SSP generated $18.9 million in the quarter, 64% better than our forecast of $11.5 million.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
PHOENIX, Nov. 10, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — QuoteMedia, Inc. (OTCQB: QMCI), a leading provider of market data and financial applications, announced financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2022.
QuoteMedia provides banks, brokerage firms, private equity firms, financial planners and sophisticated investors with a more economical, higher quality alternative source of stock market data and related research information. We compete with several larger legacy organizations and a modest community of other smaller companies. QuoteMedia provides comprehensive market data services, including streaming data feeds, on-demand request-based data (XML/JSON), web content solutions (financial content for website integration) and applications such as Quotestream Professional and Quotestream Web Trader.
Highlights for Q3 2022 include the following:
Quarterly revenue increased to $4,390,667 in Q3 2022 from $3,818,713 in Q3 2021, an increase of $571,954 (15%).
Gross Margin percentage improved to 52% in Q3 2022, compared to 47% in Q3 2021.
Net income for Q3 2022 was $309,543 compared to $154,931 in Q3 2021, an increase of $154,612.
Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2022 was $670,145 compared to $539,534 in Q3 2021, an improvement of $130,611.
“We are very pleased with what we accomplished this quarter, and over the year to date,” said Robert J. Thompson, Chairman of the Board. “We have closed several major agreements with high profile clients including two of Canada’s largest banks, with the second contract commencing in November 2022. We achieved record profits this quarter, and we expect to improve upon this moving forward. We anticipate that the pace of our revenue growth will continue in the coming quarters, with the launch of more enterprise deployments and exciting partnerships.
“We have made extensive time and financial investments into operations and infrastructure improvements this year, to ensure we are able to provide the highest levels of service, support and security for our clients, and we expect that these investments will yield dividends in the months and years to come.
“Due to the significant devaluation of the Canadian dollar, we are revising our revenue growth projection for the 2022 year. A substantial number of our contracts (and new contracts) are denominated in Canadian dollars, and this is re-measured into US Dollars when reporting our financial results. We are now projecting a 16% revenue growth for 2022, down from 19%. This will not have a meaningful impact on our bottom-line profitability, as our Canadian dollar revenue and expenses are almost equal. In fact, we anticipate significantly increased profitability in upcoming quarters.”
QuoteMedia will host a conference call Thursday, November 10, 2022 at 2:00 PM Eastern Time to discuss the Q3 2022 financial results and provide a business update.
Conference Call Details:
Date: November 10, 2022
Time: 2:00 PM Eastern
Dial-in number: 800 445-7795; 203-518-9843
Conference ID: QUOTEMEDIA
An audio rebroadcast of the call will be available later at: www.quotemedia.com
About QuoteMedia
QuoteMedia is a leading software developer and cloud-based syndicator of financial market information and streaming financial data solutions to media, corporations, online brokerages, and financial services companies. The Company licenses interactive stock research tools such as streaming real-time quotes, market research, news, charting, option chains, filings, corporate financials, insider reports, market indices, portfolio management systems, and data feeds. QuoteMedia provides industry leading market data solutions and financial services for companies such as the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, TMX Group (TSX Stock Exchange), Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE), London Stock Exchange Group, FIS, U.S. Bank, Bank of Montreal (BMO), Broadridge Financial Systems, JPMorgan Chase, Scotiabank, CI Financial, Canaccord Genuity Corp., Hilltop Securities, HD Vest, Stockhouse, Zacks Investment Research, General Electric, Boeing, Bombardier, Telus International, Business Wire, PR Newswire, FolioFN, Regal Securities, ChoiceTrade, Cetera Financial Group, Dynamic Trend, Inc., Qtrade Financial, CNW Group, IA Private Wealth, Ally Invest, Inc., Suncor, Leede Jones Gable, Firstrade Securities, Charles Schwab, First Financial, Equisolve, Stock-Trak, Mergent, Cision, Warrior Trading and others. Quotestream®, QMod TM and Quotestream Connect TM are trademarks of QuoteMedia. For more information, please visit www.quotemedia.com .
Statements about QuoteMedia’s future expectations, including future revenue, earnings, and transactions, as well as all other statements in this press release other than historical facts are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. QuoteMedia intends that such forward-looking statements be subject to the safe harbors created thereby. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that are identified from time to time in the Company’s SEC reports and filings and are subject to change at any time. QuoteMedia’s actual results and other corporate developments could differ materially from that which has been anticipated in such statements.
Below are the specific forward-looking statements included in this press release:
We achieved record profits this quarter, and we expect to improve upon this moving forward. We anticipate that the pace of our revenue growth will continue in the coming quarters, with the launch of more enterprise deployments and exciting partnerships.
Due to the significant depreciation of the Canadian dollar, we are revising our revenue growth projection for the 2022 year. A substantial number of our contracts (and new contracts) are denominated in Canadian dollars, and this is re-measured into US Dollars when reporting our financial results. We are now projecting a 16% revenue growth for 2022, down from 19%. This will not have a meaningful impact on our bottom-line profitability, though, as our Canadian dollar revenue and expenses are almost equal. In fact, we anticipate significantly increased profitability in upcoming quarters.
We believe that Adjusted EBITDA, as a non-GAAP pro forma financial measure, provides meaningful information to investors in terms of enhancing their understanding of our operating performance and results, as it allows investors to more easily compare our financial performance on a consistent basis compared to the prior year periods. This non-GAAP financial measure also corresponds with the way we expect investment analysts to evaluate and compare our results. Any non-GAAP pro forma financial measures should be considered only as supplements to, and not as substitutes for or in isolation from, or superior to, our other measures of financial information prepared in accordance with GAAP, such as net income attributable to QuoteMedia, Inc.
We define and calculate Adjusted EBITDA as net income attributable to QuoteMedia, Inc., plus: 1) depreciation and amortization, 2) stock compensation expense, 3) interest expense, 4) foreign exchange loss (or minus a foreign exchange gain), and 5) income tax expense. We disclose Adjusted EBITDA because we believe it is a useful metric by which to compare the performance of our business from period to period. We understand that measures similar to Adjusted EBITDA are broadly used by analysts, rating agencies, investors and financial institutions in assessing our performance. Accordingly, we believe that the presentation of Adjusted EBITDA provides useful information to investors. The table below provides a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to net income attributable to QuoteMedia, Inc., the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure.
QuoteMedia, Inc. Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation to Net Income
Third Quarter 2022 Revenue Up 211% Year-Over-Year to $26.0 Million
Third Quarter Net Income Up Year-Over-Year to $0.8 Million, or $0.06 per Share
Company Raises Revenue Guidance to $85 Million-$90 Million for Full-Year 2022
HOUSTON, Nov. 10, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Direct Digital Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: DRCT) (“Direct Digital Holdings” or the “Company”), a leading advertising and marketing technology platform operating through its companies Colossus Media, LLC (“Colossus SSP”), Huddled Masses LLC (“Huddled Masses”) and Orange142, LLC (“Orange142”), today announced financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2022.
Mark Walker, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Direct Digital Holdings, commented, “We are pleased to report strong revenue and EBITDA for the third quarter of 2022, demonstrating strong growth across both our sell- and buy-side business segments and continued expansion of our portfolio and client reach.”
Keith Smith, President of Direct Digital Holdings, added, “Our team has effectively responded to the recent uncertainty and volatility in the market, capitalizing on brands and businesses moving dollars from less efficient traditional advertising outlets towards digital media. We believe that Direct Digital Holdings is well-positioned to continue its record of strong growth and market expansion or the remainder of the year and, as such, we are thrilled to announce we will be raising revenue guidance for full-year 2022.”
Third Quarter 2022 Financial Highlights:
Revenue increased to $26.0 million in the third quarter of 2022, an increase of $17.6 million, or up 211% over the $8.4 million in the same period of 2021.
Sell-side advertising segment, consisting of the Colossus SSP business, grew to $18.9 million and contributed $16.5 million of the increase, or up 710% over the $2.3 million in the same period of 2021.
Buy-side advertising segment, consisting of the Huddled Masses and Orange142 businesses, grew to $7.1 million and contributed $1.1 million of the increase, or up 18% over the $6.0 million in the same period of 2021.
Operating income increased $1.3 million, up 225%, to $1.8 million for the third quarter of 2022, compared to income of $0.6 million in the same period of 2021. Increased costs resulting from headcount additions, higher commission and bonus expense, public company related costs, as well as a one-time severance charge of approximately $0.5 million impacted operating income in the third quarter of 2022.
Net income was $0.8 million in the third quarter of 2022, up 458%, compared to ($0.2) million loss in the same period of 2021.
Adjusted EBITDA(1) increased 128% to $2.4 million in the third quarter 2022, compared to $1.1 million in the same period of 2021.
Net operating cash provided by operating activities for the nine-months ended September 30, 2022 was $3.4 million, compared to a net operating cash of $3.2 million generated in the same period of 2021.
Business Highlights
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2022, Direct Digital Holdings processed approximately 125 billion monthly impressions through its sell-side advertising segment, an increase of 56% over the same period of 2021, with over 1.3 trillion bid requests for the quarter.
In addition, the Company’s sell-side advertising platforms received over 11 billion bid responses, an increase of over 120% over the same period in 2021, through 129,000 buyers for the quarter.
The Company’s buy-side advertising segment served over 200 customers, an increase of 2% compared to the same period of 2021.
Financial Outlook
Direct Digital Holdings’ guidance assumes that the U.S. economy continues to grow at a moderate pace, and there are no major COVID-19-related setbacks or other shocks that may cause economic conditions to deteriorate or otherwise significantly reduce advertiser demand. Direct Digital Holdings plans to offer annual guidance and update it throughout the year. Accordingly, the Company estimates the following:
For fiscal year 2022, Direct Digital Holdings is raising expectations for guidance by approximately 20% to increase from a range of $70 million-$75 million to $85 million-$90 million, or up 130% year-over-year growth at the mid-point, while targeting an Adjusted EBITDA Margin in the double digits.
Conference Call and Webcast Details
Direct Digital Holdings will host a conference call on Thursday, November 10, 2022 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time to discuss the Company’s quarterly results. The live webcast and replay can be accessed at https://ir.directdigitalholdings.com/. Please access the website at least fifteen minutes prior to the call to register, download and install any necessary audio software. For those who cannot access the webcast, a replay will be available at https://ir.directdigitalholdings.com/ for a period of twelve months following the live webcast.
Footnote
(1) “Adjusted EBITDA” is a non-GAAP financial measure and Adjusted EBITDA Margin is an operating ratio derived from a non-GAAP financial measure. The section titled “Non-GAAP Financial Measures” below describes our usage of non-GAAP financial measures and provides reconciliations between historical GAAP and non-GAAP information contained in this press release.
Forward Looking Statements
This press release may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws, including the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and which are subject to certain risks, trends and uncertainties.
As used below, “we,” “us,” and “our” refer to Direct Digital Holdings. We use words such as “could,” “would,” “may,” “might,” “will,” “expect,” “likely,” “believe,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “intend,” “plan,” “project” and other similar expressions to identify forward-looking statements, but not all forward-looking statements include these words. All statements contained in this release that do not relate to matters of historical fact should be considered forward-looking statements.
All of our forward-looking statements involve estimates and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by the forward-looking statements. Our forward-looking statements are based on assumptions that we have made in light of our industry experience and our perceptions of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors we believe are appropriate under the circumstances. Although we believe that these forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, many factors could affect our actual operating and financial performance and cause our performance to differ materially from the performance expressed in or implied by the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: our dependence on the overall demand for advertising, which could be influenced by economic downturns; any slow-down or unanticipated development in the market for programmatic advertising campaigns; the effects of health epidemics, such as the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic; operational and performance issues with our platform, whether real or perceived, including a failure to respond to technological changes or to upgrade our technology systems; any significant inadvertent disclosure or breach of confidential and/or personal information we hold, or of the security of our or our customers’, suppliers’ or other partners’ computer systems; any unavailability or non-performance of the non-proprietary technology, software, products and services that we use; unfavorable publicity and negative public perception about our industry, particularly concerns regarding data privacy and security relating to our industry’s technology and practices, and any perceived failure to comply with laws and industry self-regulation; restrictions on the use of third-party “cookies,” mobile device IDs or other tracking technologies, which could diminish our platform’s effectiveness; any inability to compete in our intensely competitive market; any significant fluctuations caused by our high customer concentration; any violation of legal and regulatory requirements or any misconduct by our employees, subcontractors, agents or business partners; any strain on our resources, diversion of our management’s attention or impact on our ability to attract and retain qualified board members as a result of being a public company; our dependence, as a holding company, of receiving distributions from Direct Digital Holdings, LLC to pay our taxes, expenses and dividends; and other factors and assumptions discussed in the “Risk Factors,” “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Conditions and Results of Operations” and other sections of our filings with the SEC that we make from time to time. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should any of these assumptions prove to be incorrect, our actual operating and financial performance may vary in material respects from the performance projected in these forward-looking statements. Further, any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement contained in this release to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which it is made or to reflect the occurrence of anticipated or unanticipated events or circumstances, and we claim the protection of the safe harbor for forward-looking statements contained in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
About Direct Digital Holdings
Direct Digital Holdings (Nasdaq: DRCT), owner of operating companies Colossus SSP, Huddled Masses, and Orange 142, brings state-of-the-art sell- and buy-side advertising platforms together under one umbrella company. Direct Digital Holdings’ sell-side platform, Colossus SSP, offers advertisers of all sizes extensive reach within general market and multicultural media properties. The company’s subsidiaries Huddled Masses and Orange142 deliver significant ROI for middle market advertisers by providing data-optimized programmatic solutions at scale for businesses in sectors that range from energy to healthcare to travel to financial services. Direct Digital Holdings’ sell- and buy-side solutions manage approximately 90,000 clients monthly, generating over 100 billion impressions per month across display, CTV, in-app and other media channels. The company has been named a top minority-owned business by The Houston Business Journal.
Tourism Marketing Leader to Drive Growth for Orange142 & Its Brand Clients
HOUSTON, TX (November 7, 2022) – Direct Digital Holdings, a leading advertising and marketing technology platform, announced today that Scott Schult will be joining Orange142, a demand generation and digital advertising company, in the newly created role of Head of Strategy. Schult will help Orange142’s sales, account management, and marketing teams construct a more strategic approach to client outreach, retention, and production innovation. Schult comes to Orange142 from the Nashville Convention and Visitors Corporation, where he served as Chief Marketing Officer.
Before leading marketing at the Nashville Convention and Visitors Corporation, Schult worked as Executive Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer for the Myrtle Beach Area Chamber of Commerce. Earlier in his career, he held key roles at the St. Petersburg/Clearwater Area Convention and Visitors Bureau, Primco Capital Management, Sierra Health Services, and Marriott Hotels.
“Scott brings unparalleled experience and innovative thought leadership in the travel and tourism industry, along with years of insights and relationships that will serve us well in helping Orange142 grow marketshare and market our services to a broad reach of industries,” said Mark Walker, CEO, Direct Digital Holdings.
“Orange142 is a high-performance digital media company that successfully delivers unmatched value and transparency to its clients,” said Schult. “Their solutions are a big win for the travel and tourism brands I know well, as well as for a range of marketers looking for significant ROI from a team that understand the needs of mid-market businesses.”
Schult holds a B.S. in Hospitality & Tourism Management and an M.S. in Marketing, both from Purdue University.
About Direct Digital Holdings
Direct Digital Holdings (Nasdaq: DRCT), owner of operating companies Colossus SSP, Huddled Masses and Orange 142, brings state-of-the-art sell- and buy-side advertising platforms together under one umbrella company. Direct Digital Holdings’ sell-side platform, Colossus SSP, offers advertisers of all sizes extensive reach within general market and multicultural media properties. The company’s subsidiaries Huddled Masses and Orange142 deliver significant ROI for middle market advertisers by providing data-optimized programmatic solutions at scale for businesses in sectors that range from energy to healthcare to travel to financial services. Direct Digital Holdings’ sell- and buy-side solutions manage approximately 90,000 clients monthly, generating over 100 billion impressions per month across display, CTV, in-app and other media channels. The company has been named a top minority-owned business by The Houston Business Journal.
About Orange142
Part of Direct Digital Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: DRCT), Orange142, LLC combines demand-side technology with real-time intelligence and data-driven strategy to support omnichannel marketing. Based in Austin, Texas, Orange142, LLC specializes in driving strong results for mid-market clients in CPG, higher education, government, travel/tourism, and wellness/beauty. For more information, visit www.orange142.com.
Media Contact: Laura Goldberg LBG Public Relations for Direct Digital Holdings laura@lbgpr.com +1-347-683-1859
The Investment Road Less Travelled Has More Opportunity, But Less Available Information
An expanding customer base has always been a solid reason for further exploration of an investment opportunity. An investor’s expectations of growth potential have the power to create initial intrigue and prompt further exploration. This exploration should, at a minimum, include actual data (not hunches), and outside estimates from experts in the field – along with a review of management’s plans.
One also has to understand competition, direct and indirect, and how that is expected to grow. And, of course, current profit and earnings breakdown with an idea of plans for the future. You may even explore if there is a chance the company is a possible acquisition target and how that may impact stock performance. Then, depending on the company or industry, less cursory digging should be done. This is where self-directed investors or small or mid-sized investment advisors get tripped up. They may not have access to someone knowledgeable enough about the company.
Opportunity to Think About
A co-worker asked the other day what I thought of traditional media companies in the U.S. as an investment, including TV and radio. Without thinking too deeply, I said what most people might say, the industry is spread thin as competition for people’s time and attention keeps growing. While anything is good at the right price, if the audience (customer base) is declining, that “right price” is going to be low.
He asked another question, how many Spanish-speaking people are immigrating to the U.S. each year, and what one product will they likely be using that is generally not consumed by English-speaking residents? Although I didn’t know there was a company that has approximately 65% market share of the Spanish-speaking market, I understood where his line of questioning was going – and became intrigued.
A Few Things I Learned
I did some Googling.
The Census Bureau’s monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) shows that the total foreign-born or immigrant population in the U.S. hit 47.9 million in September 2022. This is an increase of 2.9 million since January 2021.
Immigrants from Latin American countries other than Mexico account for 60 percent of the increase in the foreign-born population since January 2021. The Mexican-born population in the U.S. actually decreased by 4%.
At 143,000, the average monthly growth in the foreign-born population, which is 60% Hispanic, is at an all-time high pace.
There is a company, Entravision (EVC), which is a diversified Spanish-language media company. They own both television and radio stations to reach Hispanic consumers across the United States.
Entravision owns and/or operates 53 primary television stations and is the largest affiliate group of both the top-ranked Univision television network and Univision’s TeleFutura network. They have television stations in 20 of the nation’s top 50 Hispanic markets. As far as radio, the company also operates one of the largest groups of primarily Spanish-language radio stations in the U.S.
My thoughts are while the business itself is getting fragmented, the rapidly growing demographic that is likely to tune in to an Entravision station is growing at a rapid pace. And there is very little competition.
An Interesting Time to Explore Spanish Language Media
While I’m still doing some due diligence and reading thoughts from the multiple analysts that cover EVC, including one whose research of the company is available on Channelchek (see it here), I’m waiting for their earnings report this Thursday (November 3).
If my intrigue is still high after Thursday, Noble Capital Markets is holding two lunches and a breakfast where investors can attend one and meet with management, hear them discuss their company, and ask any questions to clear up unanswered questions.
These meetings are in Florida, one in Boca Raton on November 8 and two in Central Florida (Orlando and Winter Park), on November 9. If you will be in the area and also find Entravision worth exploring, register for a breakfast or lunch meeting here.
Take Away
The investment “road less traveled” is often lined with gold but also requires a lot more digging to find useful information that makes you comfortable making a decision. Discovering actionable ideas and then exploring them is what Channelchek is about.
The In-Person “Meet the Management” Series, put on by Noble Capital Markets and Channelchek, is a good way for investment professionals and individuals to supplement the data and research on Channelchek with an opportunity most investors never get, a discussion over breakfast or lunch with management.
Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Favorable Q3 results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $233.5 million, just above our expectation of $230 million. Despite revenue decreasing 2% from the previous quarter Adj. EBITDA grew by 1.6% to $46.6 million beating our forecast of $41.7 million by 11.7%.
Lowers guidance. Q4 revenue is expected to decline low to mid single digits in spite of influx of Political advertising, which too appears softer than expected.Local advertising appears to have softened, which implies that local businesses are now feeling the affect of the economic headwinds. Management lowered Adj. EBITDA guidance from a range of $175 million to $200 million to a range of $160 million to $170 million.
This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
SANTA MONICA, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Entravision (NYSE: EVC), a leading global advertising solutions, media and technology company, announced that it will release its third quarter 2022 financial results after market close on Thursday, November 3, 2022. The Company will host a conference call that day at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time to discuss the third quarter 2022 results.
To access the conference call, please dial (844) 836-8739 (U.S.) or (412) 317-5440 (International) ten minutes prior to the start time. The call will also be available via live webcast on the investor relations portion of the Company’s website located at www.entravision.com.
If you cannot listen to the conference call at its scheduled time, there will be a replay available through Thursday, November 17, 2022 which can be accessed by dialing (844) 512-2921 (U.S.) or (412) 317-6671 (International) and entering the passcode 10171311. The webcast will also be archived on the Company’s website.
About Entravision
Entravision is a leading global advertising, media and ad-tech solutions company connecting brands to consumers by representing top platforms and publishers. Our dynamic portfolio includes digital, television and audio offerings. Digital, our largest revenue segment, is comprised of four business units: our digital sales representation business; Smadex, our programmatic ad purchasing platform; our branding and mobile performance solutions business; and our digital audio business. Through our digital sales representation business, we connect global media companies such as Meta, Twitter, TikTok and Spotify with advertisers in primarily emerging growth markets worldwide. Smadex is our mobile-first demand side platform, enabling advertisers to execute performance campaigns using machine learning. We also offer a branding and mobile performance solutions business, which provides managed services to advertisers looking to connect with global consumers, primarily on mobile devices, and our digital audio business provides digital audio advertising solutions for advertisers in the Americas. In addition to digital, Entravision has 49 television stations and is the largest affiliate group of the Univision and UniMás television networks. Entravision also manages 45 primarily Spanish-language radio stations that feature nationally recognized, Emmy award-winning talent. Shares of Entravision Class A Common Stock trade on the NYSE under ticker: EVC. Learn more about our offerings at entravision.com or connect with us on LinkedIn and Facebook.
IRVING, Texas–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Salem Media Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: SALM) announced today that it plans to report its third quarter 2022 financial results after the market closes on November 3, 2022.
The company also plans to host a teleconference to discuss its results on November 3, 2022 at 4:00 p.m. Central Time. To access the teleconference, please dial (888) 770-7291, and then ask to be joined to the Salem Media Group Third Quarter 2022 call or listen to the webcast.
A replay of the teleconference will be available through November 17, 2022 and can be heard by dialing (800) 770-2030 – replay PIN number 2413416, or on the investor relations portion of the company’s website, located at investor.salemmedia.com.
ABOUT SALEM MEDIA GROUP:
Salem Media Group is America’s leading multimedia company specializing in Christian and conservative content, with media properties comprising radio, digital media and book and newsletter publishing. Each day Salem serves a loyal and dedicated audience of listeners and readers numbering in the millions nationally. With its unique programming focus, Salem provides compelling content, fresh commentary and relevant information from some of the most respected figures across the Christian and conservative media landscape. Learn more about Salem Media Group, Inc. at www.salemmedia.com, Facebook and Twitter.
RICHMOND, Va.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Bowlero Corp. (NYSE: BOWL), the world’s leader in bowling entertainment, announced today that Thomas Shannon, Founder & Chief Executive Officer of Bowlero Corp., will be interviewed by Jim Cramer on tonight’s edition of Mad Money with Jim CrameronCNBC.
The interview is scheduled to air tonight during the 6:00 PM ET showing of Mad Money. To view the interview, please visit CNBC’s website at www.cnbc.com/live-tv/ or visit the CNBC channel anywhere you get live TV.
About Bowlero Corp
Bowlero Corp. is the worldwide leader in bowling entertainment, media, and events. With more than 300 bowling centers across North America, Bowlero Corp. serves more than 27 million guests each year through a family of brands that includes Bowlero, Bowlmor Lanes, and AMF. In 2019, Bowlero Corp. acquired the Professional Bowlers Association, the major league of bowling, which boasts thousands of members and millions of fans across the globe. For more information on Bowlero Corp., please visit BowleroCorp.com.
IRVING, Texas–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Salem Media Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: SALM), announced today that it will present at the Annual LD Micro Main Event XV investor conference at 4:00 P.M. Central Time on October 26, 2022. The presentation will be available on the investor relations portion of the company’s website www.salemmedia.com prior to the company’s presentation.
ABOUT LD MICRO/SEQUIRE:
LD Micro began in 2006 with the sole purpose of being an independent resource to the microcap world. What started as a newsletter highlighting unique companies, has transformed into the pre-eminent event platform in the space. For more information, please visit ldmicro.com.
In September 2020, LD Micro was acquired by SRAX, a financial technology company that unlocks data and insights for publicly traded companies. Through its premier investor intelligence and communications platform, Sequire, companies can track their investors’ behaviors and trends and use those insights to engage current and potential investors across marketing channels. For more information on SRAX, visit srax.com and mysequire.com.
ABOUT SALEM MEDIA GROUP:
Salem Media Group is America’s leading multimedia company specializing in Christian and conservative content, with media properties comprising radio, digital media and book and newsletter publishing. Each day Salem serves a loyal and dedicated audience of listeners and readers numbering in the millions nationally. With its unique programming focus, Salem provides compelling content, fresh commentary and relevant information from some of the most respected figures across the Christian and conservative media landscape. Learn more about Salem Media Group, Inc. at www.salemmedia.com, Facebook and Twitter.
Marks the Company’s 10th, 11th, and 12th Completed Acquisitions of 2022
Robust Pipeline of Definitive Agreements Remain
RICHMOND, Va., Oct. 20, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — Bowlero Corp., (NYSE: BOWL) the world’s leader in bowling entertainment, announced today that it has completed three more acquisitions from its pipeline of definitive agreements in 2022. This marks the Company’s 7th completed acquisition of FY23.
Brett Parker, President & Chief Financial Officer of Bowlero Corp stated, “We are delighted with the pace and quality of our acquisitions so far in 2022, with these completions marking our 45th location in California and expanding our presence in Wisconsin from three to five.”
On the West Coast, Strikes Unlimited is a 50-lane center in Sacramento, CA with state-of-the-art technology, arcade games, an on-site pro-shop and home to the Halftime Bar and Grill.
Super Bowl Family Entertainment Center, located in Wisconsin, is a 48-lane center featuring a wide selection of arcade games, blacklight bowling, leagues and a sports bar and grill. Additionally, located minutes away from downtown Milwaukee, is JB’s on 41. With 10 private luxury suites, 35 modern bowling lanes, 40 arcade games and much more, this location is a nationally and locally ranked top bowling and entertainment destination.
All three locations will officially open under Bowlero Corp management the weekend of October 21st.
“Our pipeline for additional deals remains robust, and we will continue to pursue accelerated growth through our proven strategy of acquisitions and new builds,” said Parker in closing.
About Bowlero Corp
Bowlero Corp. is the worldwide leader in bowling entertainment, media, and events. With more than 300 bowling centers across North America, Bowlero Corp. serves more than 27 million guests each year through a family of brands that includes Bowlero, Bowlmor Lanes, and AMF. In 2019, Bowlero Corp. acquired the Professional Bowlers Association, the major league of bowling, which boasts thousands of members and millions of fans across the globe. For more information on Bowlero Corp., please visit BowleroCorp.com
Floridians Can Soon Stop at Convenience Stores for Milk, Bread, and Cannabis
Do you use Circle K as a convenience store or a gas station? How about marijuana dispensary?
There is something new afoot at the Circle Ks in Florida, and it may forever change the medical marijuana dispensary, business model. Today, Green Thumb (GTBIF), a national cannabis consumer goods company, announced plans to expand its medical, retail footprint in Florida. It’s doing this through a lease agreement with Circle K convenience stores, where it expects to launch and test its RISE Express dispensary brand at ten Florida locations.
Green Thumb Founder and CEO Ben Kovler is very positive about the potential, “The opening of RISE Express stores at Circle K locations is a game-changer. Convenience is a strong channel in retail, and people want more access to cannabis,” said Kovler. “The new RISE Express model is a huge step forward in making it easier and more efficient for patients to purchase high-quality cannabis as part of their everyday routine when stopping by their local convenience store.”
The products available at these retail stores will come from the company’s new 28-acre cultivation facility in Ocala, FL. Green Thumb entered the Florida market in 2018 and currently owns and operates medical cannabis retail stores in many parts of the state.
Potential for Growth
Florida state marijuana laws allow for use with a medical marijuana card but prohibit recreational use. According to the Florida Department of Health, over 700,000 Floridians are currently registered active cardholders in the state’s medical marijuana program.
The deal is a first of its kind, given that legal marijuana has only been legally available in stand-alone dispensaries in the US and within pharmacies in countries such as Uruguay and Germany. This could help mainstream the substance as people stop as part of their normal routines to buy staples and daily necessities. No additional stop will be needed if you’re getting milk, bread, gas or other drugs like Tylenol.
Some Circle K locations have already ventured into cannabis-derived products that have recently become mainstream. This includes CBD oils and products and Delta-8 items, which can give consumers a mind-altering high, but currently fall through a legal loophole because it is derived from hemp.
Take Away
It was not long ago cannabinoids such as CBD could only be found at vape shops and other mom-and-pop locations. Today, we expect them to be carried in convenience stores and even at our local chain grocery.
Will medical marijuana also become widely available, so consumers don’t have to make a separate stop in their daily routines? Green Thumb and Circle K will be breaking new ground on this front beginning next year.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures
Overview. Develop a shopping list.This report focuses on the looming economic recession and how investors should position portfolios for the prospect of an economic recovery. But, a more important theme of this report is for investors not to look for the past leaders in the industry as the best way to play a rebound. In this report, we look beyond a rebound play and focus on our favorite growth plays.
Digital Media: The smaller beat the goliaths.Two of our current favorites in the AdTech and MarTech industries performed better than most of its respective peers in the quarter. Can the momentum continue?
Television Broadcasting: Will political carry the quarter? With signs of weakening National advertising, broadcasters are looking forward toward Q4 Political as an offset. Political advertising, however, is not usually evenly spent across all markets. There may be winners and some losers.
Radio Broadcasting: Polishing its tarnished image.One of the epic fails of the radio industry has been Audacy, once one of the leadership companies of the industry. The AUD shares are down a staggering 95% from highs in March 2021. New industry leaders are emerging and they are not focused on radio. We highlight a few of our current favorites.
Publishing: Once a leader, now a loser.It is hard to believe that Gannett was once a $90 stock and held a record for one of the longest strings of quarterly earnings gains in the S&P 500 Index. The shares are down 80% from year earlier highs to near $1.37. We believe that investors should take a look at a company that has developed into an impressive Digital Media publisher.
Overview
Develop A Shopping List
The best time to buy stocks is typically in the midst of an economic recession. Investors begin to look beyond the economic weakness and begin positioning portfolios for an economic rebound. The hard part is determining when the economy is in the middle of the downturn. It appears by all standard definitions of an economic downturn that the U.S. is in an economic recession. But, how long will a downturn last? Should investors try to be cute to predict the midpoint of the downturn?
Many economic pundits paint the current state of the economy against the canvas of the 1970s, a period of high inflation and low economic growth. There are many similarities. The Federal Reserve in the early 70s was willing to provide cheap money to fuel the economy, without much concern about inflation. In the second half of the 70s, the economy was rocked by fuel supply shortages and high inflation. During the Covid pandemic, both fiscal and monetary policy was designed to provide liquidity and to make sure that people were able to pay their bills during the economic lockdowns. This had the affect of increasing personal income, even though GDP declined 31.4% in 2020. As the economy reopened, there was significant demand for goods and services, some of which were in short supply because of the previous and recurring economic lock downs. Simplistically, this fueled inflation, high demand with a consumer that had disposable income and limited supply.
As Figure #1 Early 1970s chart illustrates, the US economy grew 9.8%, as measured by real GDP, from January 1972 to September 1975. Notably, the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, declined a significant 18.6%. This was a period marked by rising inflation due to government spending. The inflation rate, as measured by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, was a reasonable 3.3% in 1972, but increased to 11.1% in 1974 and then moderated slightly to 9.1% in 1975. The inflation rate remained above 5% for the following 3 years.
Figure #1 Early 1970s
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Yahoo Finance.
Given the current state of rising energy prices, many pundits paint the current US economic plight similar to the period of fuel shortages of the late 1970s. As Figure #2 Late 1970s illustrates, the US economy, as measured by real GDP, grew 13.5% from January 1977 to October 1981, an average of slightly more than 3% per year. Notably, inflation increased significantly, from 6.5% in 1977 to 11.3% in 1979, followed by 13.5% in 1980, and 10.3% in 1981. The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, did not react well, up 9.3% from January 1977 to October 1981, an average of 2.3% growth.
Figure #2 Late 1970s
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis and Yahoo Finance.
So, where are we now? In the present, the Covid induced government spending and stimulus related fiscal policy, large spending on the Ukraine war, and a Fed unwilling to rein in early signs of inflation has put the US in a dire economic position. Certainly, supply chain shortages contributed to the current rise in inflation, as well. The Fed now appears to have religion on inflation and is aggressively raising interest rates. The Fed indicated that it is willing to create economic pain to arrest inflationary pressures. Most certainly this will cause additional economic weakness. The stock market in the near to intermediate term will need to digest the likelihood of weakening corporate profits, as well. Furthermore, as it relates to the equity markets, other investment classes, such as bonds, may become more appealing, taking demand from the stock market.
We believe that arresting inflation would set a favorable trajectory for the stock market, as investors position for the prospect of an economic recovery. To some degree, the 24.4% drop in the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, from January 2022 to near current levels, anticipate some of the headwinds for investors described earlier in this report, including weakening corporate profits, the prospect of a further weakened US, and, even global economy, a move toward other investment classes, and stubborn inflation. What is different this time is that the Fed now appears to be aggressively tackling inflation. As such, the 47% drop in the stock market from highs in 1973 to the low in 1974 may not be a prelude to the current environment. It was a different Fed and it took different actions.
We encourage a different approach than trying to time the market. Our advice is for investors to develop a shopping list and begin accumulating. But, be selective.
We believe that the leadership companies of the past economic downturns are not likely to be the best positioned for the looming economic downturn or the recovery. Many of the larger cap names in each sector have fallen on hard times. This is discussed more fully in the following sector reports. Those that appear to be well positioned are companies that have diversified revenue streams, transitioned to faster growth digital businesses, and pared down debt. We encourage investors to focus on these companies given the prospect of faster revenue and cash flow growth coming out of the possible recession. Some of our current favorites include Entravision, Townsquare Media, Salem Media, Harte Hanks, Direct Digital, and Lee Enterprises. These companies are discussed in the following sector summaries.
Internet & Digital Media
Internet and Digital Media stocks declined for the fourth consecutive quarter in a row, as Figure #3 Internet & Digital Media Stock Performance illustrates. It wasn’t all bad, as Noble’s Ad Tech Index outperformed the general market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, up +7%. Comparatively, the S&P 500 Index decreased by 5%. Figure #4 Internet & Digital Media Q3 Performance reflects the outperformance of the AdTech sector. AdTech also materially outperformed Noble’s other Internet & Digital Media subsectors, including Noble’s Digital Media Index (-10%); Social Media Index (-15%) and MarTech Index (-16%). Notably, some of our closely followed companies significantly outperformed the respective peer group and outperformed the general market, discussed later in this report.
Figure #3 Internet & Digital Media LTM Stock Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Figure #4 Internet & Digital Media Q3 Stock Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Marketing Technology
Harte Hanks shines in MarTech
The worst performing sector was the MarTech sector, which is also the least profitable sector. This likely explains the sector’s underperformance. Only 4 of the 24 companies we monitor in this sector generate positive EBITDA, and investors migrated away from unprofitable growth stocks towards more profitable companies or defensive sectors that might withstand a recession better. Investors would clearly like to see companies in this sector accelerate their path to profitability, and most companies in the sector are responding accordingly. To be fair, some of the companies that aren’t EBITDA positive do generate positive cash flow from operations, which is a quirk of SaaS software accounting. Of the two dozen companies in this sector, the only stock that was up during the quarter was Harte-Hanks (HHS), whose shares increased by 68%. HHS continues to generate improved operating results while lowering its debt and pension obligations.
MarTech stocks have also been victims of their own success. Earlier this year the group traded at average revenue and EBITDA multiples of 8.5x and 70.8x, respectively. Today the same group trades at average revenue and EBITDA multiples of 4.5x and 30.1x, respectively. Stocks like Shopify (SHOP), and Hubspot (HUBS) entered the year trading at 22.2x and 14.7x 2022E revenues, respectively, and now trade at 5.3x, and 7.7x, respectively. Some of this appears to be a Covid-related hangover: when Covid hit, retail companies needed to emphasize their online channels, and companies like Shopify benefited. As consumers return to stores, growth has moderated. Shopify aside, the broader message investors seem to be sending is that recurring revenues are great, but not if they are paired with EBITDA losses at a time when economy appears to be heading into a potential recession.
As Figure #5 Marketing Tech Comparables illustrate, the shares of Harte Hanks is among the cheapest in the sector, currently trading at 5.1 times Enterprise Value to our 2023 adj. EBITDA estimate. We believe that the modest stock valuation relative to peers, currently trading on average at 12.9 times, illustrates the head room for the stock in spite of the 68% move in the latest quarter. The shares of HHS continue to be among our favorites in the sector.
Figure #5 Marketing Tech Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Nobles estimates
Advertising Technology
Direct Digital exceeds peers
Noble’s AdTech Index was the worst performing Index of the group in the second quarter when it was down 39%. As such, it was nice to see a better performance in the third quarter. In addition, Noble Indices are market cap weighted, and we attribute the relative strength of the Ad Tech Index to the performance of The Trade Desk (TTD), the Ad Tech sectors largest market cap company, whose shares were up 42% during the quarter. Other notable performers were Digital Media Solutions (DMS; +73%) which announced a deal to be taken private, and Zeta Global (ZETA; +46%), whose 2Q results significantly exceeded guidance. Despite the relative strength of the sector, returns were not broad-based: only 9 of the 23 stocks in the Ad Tech sector were up during the quarter.
One of our closely followed companies, Direct Digital (DRCT) had a strong performance, up 75% in the quarter. The company’s second quarter exceeded expectations and the company raised full year 2022 revenue and cash flow guidance by a significant 40%. The company appears to be bucking the downward trend in National advertising, which is reflected in its peer group quarterly performance.
As Figure #6 Advertising Tech Comparables illustrate, Direct Digital Holdings is trading near the averages in terms of Enterprise Value to the 2023 adj. EBITDA estimate. We would note that this valuation is low considering that the company is outperforming its peers. As such, we believe that there is a valuation gap and we continue to view DRCT shares as among our favorites.
Figure #6 Advertising Tech Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Nobles estimates
Traditional Media
Downward trends, but some bright spots
The Traditional Media stocks have had tough sledding this year. As Figure #7 Traditional Media LTM Stock Performance illustrates, all of Noble’s Traditional Media Indices have declined over the past 12 months and each have underperformed the general market. The downward spiral seemed to have moderated somewhat in the third quarter.
Notably, during the third quarter, many of the stocks had a very nice bounce before resuming a downward trend, as Figure #8 Traditional Media Q3 Stock Performance illustrates. At one point in the latest quarter, stocks were up as high as 30% from the second quarter end. It is important to note that only the Publishing stocks outperformed the general market in the latest quarter. A description of the traditional media sectors follow with our favorite picks for the upcoming quarter and year.
Figure #7 Traditional Media LTM Stock Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Figure #8 Traditional Media Q3 Stock Performance
Source: Capital IQ
Television Broadcasting
Noble’s TV Index dropped 10.1% in the third quarter, underperforming the broader market (-5.3%), illustrated in Figure #8 Traditional Media Q3 Stock Performance. As we indicated in our previous quarterly report, we believe that there would be a trading opportunity in the media stocks. The latest quarter stock performance indicated that. Many of the TV stocks had a strong performance from the end of the second quarter (June 30) to highs achieved in August. Many of the TV stocks increased a strong 25% on average. It is instructive to know that E.W. Scripps had the largest advance from June 30 lows, up 31% to highs achieved August 16. When the industry is in favor, the shares of E.W. Scripps tends to outperform its industry peers. The shares of Entravision (EVC) were the next best performing within the quarter, up 30%, before trading lower and ending down 12%.
The TV stocks were challenged by macro economic pressures such as inflation, rising cost of borrowing, and a Fed determined to curb inflation by slowing the economy. In the end, interest rate increases by the Fed curbed enthusiasm for TV stocks and the Noble TV Index ended the third quarter down.
As Figure #9 Q2 YOY Revenue Growth illustrates, the average television company reported 11.1% revenue growth in the latest quarter. Most broadcasters were very optimistic about Political advertising, with some raising forecasts to be near the levels of the Presidential election, a highwater mark. We would note that Entravision had the highest revenue performance in the quarter, up 24%, as the company continues to benefit from its transition toward faster growth Digital, which now accounts for over 80% of its total company revenues.
Industry adj. EBITDA margins were healthy, as Figure #10 Q2 EBITDA margins illustrate, with the average margin for the industry at 25.5%. It is notable to mention that Entravision margins appear to be significantly below that of the industry at 10.1%. Its Digital business is a rep business, and, as such, the company reports revenues on a net basis and not gross revenues. While a rep business tends to be a lower margin business, the reporting of rep revenues gives the appearance of very low margins. The company is in a strong cash flow and free cash flow position.
Most companies will be reporting third quarter financial results in the first two weeks in November. We believe that the third quarter will reflect an influx of Political advertising, even though the lion’s share of the Political advertising likely will fall in the fourth quarter. Consequently, we believe that the third quarter revenue growth will be better than the second quarter, showing some acceleration. With signs of weakening National advertising, and a likely weakening Local advertising environment in some larger markets, broadcasters are looking forward toward Q4 Political as an offset. Many broadcasters indicated that Political advertising may be at record levels in 2022, even higher than the Presidential election year of 2020. Political advertising, however, is not usually evenly spent across all markets. As such, there may be winners and some disappointment.
Investors are not encouraged to buy a Television broadcaster on the basis of the upcoming fourth quarter Political advertising influx. There are broader issues at play, like cord cutting, slowing Retransmission revenue growth, and the prospect for a weakening economy. We believe broadcasters with minimal emphasis on National advertising, a larger focus on small to medium size markets and local advertising, are best positioned to weather an economic downturn. We also like companies that do not have high debt leverage. In addition, we like diversified companies that can benefit from cord cutting, like E.W. Scripps, or have diversified revenue streams and large fast growing digital businesses, like Entravision. As Figure #11 TV Industry Comparables illustrate, the shares of Entravision are among the cheapest in the industry and the EVC shares leads our favorites in the industry.
Figure #9 TV Industry Q2 YoY Revenue Growth
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #10 TV Industry Q2 EBITDA Margins
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #11 TV Industry Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Nobles estimates
Radio Broadcasting
Polishing its tarnished image
One of the epic fails of the radio industry has been Audacy, once one of the leadership companies in the industry. The AUD shares are down a staggering 95% from highs in March 2021. The poor stock performance reflects the poor revenue and cash flow performance and high debt levels at the company. Recently, the company announced that it plans to sell some of its prized assets, including its podcasting business, Cadence 13, in an effort to more aggressively pare down debt. While Audacy struggles, there are emerging leaders in the industry, many that are not focused on its radio business, discussed later in this report.
As Figure #12 Radio Industry Q2 YoY Revenue Growth chart illustrates, the average radio revenue grew 8.9%. Companies that were at the top of the list of revenue growth had diversified revenue streams. Townsquare Media was the best performer, with Q2 revenue growth of 13.6%. We believe that Townsquare also benefits from significantly lower National advertising and concentration on less cyclical larger markets. Other diversified companies that performed better than the lower growth companies in the group were Salem Media and Beasley Broadcasting. Salem Media has diversified into content creation and digital media and Beasley recently accelerated its push into Digital Media. Separately, Beasley recently announced a station swap with Audacy, which will enhance its position with its four existing stations in Las Vegas.
On the margin front, Townsquare Media also was among the leaders in the industry. Notably, Townsquare Media’s digital business carries margins similar to its Radio businesses, near 30%. As such, its investments in Digital Media are not depressing its total company margins. As Figure #13 Q2 Radio Industry EBITDA Margins illustrate, Townsquare’s Q2 adj. EBITDA margins were 26.6%, well above that of the larger industry peers like iHeart (24.9%), Cumulus Media (19.2%), and Audacy (12.0%).
In looking forward toward the upcoming third quarter results, which will be released in coming weeks, we believe that the effects of rising inflation and weakening economy will start to show. Many of the larger broadcasters which focus on larger markets, have national network business, may disappoint. In addition, we believe that there will be spotty Political advertising performances. In our view, the resulting potential weakness in the stocks may create an opportunity to more aggressively accumulate or establish positions.
Radio stocks largely mirrored the performance of the TV industry, falling 9% in the third quarter, illustrated above, in Figure #8 Traditional Media Q3 Stock Performance. Last quarter we pointed out that large industry players such as Audacy and iHeart had an outsized negative impact on the market cap-weighted index. This was due to the stocks being downgraded by a Wal Street firm on the basis of high leverage in a time of recession.
However, there are several broadcasters in the Radio industry with improving leverage profiles. Furthermore, we believe that in a time when traditional radio companies are making a transition to more digitally based revenue sources, investors would do well to differentiate among them on that basis as well. In our view, certain companies are ahead of peers in the digital transformation and are better shielded from certain fundamental headwinds that have traditionally plagued radio broadcasters in prior recessions. We encourage investors to focus on Townsquare Media (TSQ), Salem Media (SALM), and Beasley Broadcasting (BBGI). As Figure #14 Radio Industry Comparables highlights, Townsquare Media, Cumulus Media, and Salem Media are among the cheapest in the group.
Figure #12 Radio Industry Q2 YoY Revenue Growth
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #13 Q2 Radio Industry EBITDA Margins
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #14 Radio Industry Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Nobles estimates
Publishing
Once a leader, now a loser
It is hard to believe that Gannett was once a $90 stock and held a record for one of the longest strings of quarterly earnings gains in the S&P 500 Index. The shares are down 80% from year earlier highs to near $1.37. For some anti newspaper investors, this is a “told you so” moment. But, this view missed notable exceptions, like the New York Times, which seemed to transition more quickly toward Digital revenues. There are publishers that are set apart from the weak trends at Gannett and are on a favorable trajectory toward a Digital future. As such, we believe that investors should not throw the baby out with the bathwater or avoid the industry. There are gems here, which is discussed later in this report.
There were sizable differences in the financial performance of the companies in the publishing group. As Figure #15 Publishing Industry Q2 YoY Revenue Performance chart illustrates, Q2 publishing revenue declined on average 1.5%. The notable exceptions to this performance was The New York Times, up 11.5%, News Corp, up 7.3%, and Lee Enterprises, down a modest 0.7%. The improved performance into the ranks of the leaders in the industry is quite notable. Lee’s digital subscriptions currently lead the industry. The company has exceeded all of its peers in terms of digital subscription growth in the past 11 consecutive quarters. Furthermore, over 50% of its advertising is derived from digital. Currently, roughly 30% of the company total revenues are derived from Digital, still short of the 55% at The New York Times, but closing the gap.
Not only is Lee performing well on the Digital revenue front, it has industry leading margins. As Figure #16 Q2 Publishing Industry EBITDA Margins illustrates, Lee’s Q2 EBITDA margins were 11.8%, in line with News Corp and second only to the New York Times at 17.4%. We believe that margins should improve over time as the company continues to migrate toward a higher digital margin business model.
Illustrated above in Figure #8 Traditional Media Q3 Stock Performance is Noble’s Publishing Index, which decreased a modest 2.4% in the quarter, outperforming the S&P (-5.3%). The relatively favorable performance of the index was primarily due to its largest constituents, News Corp. and The New York Times, which rebounded from -29.7% and -39.1%, respectively in Q2, to -3% and +3%, respectively, in Q3. The average percentage change of the stocks in the industry was -16.2%, more in line with Traditional Media as a whole. One of the poor performing stocks in the index for the quarter was Gannett (GCI) which declined 47%. It was recently reported that the company implemented austerity measures included unpaid leave and voluntary layoffs. In the case of Lee Enterprises, the shares were down a much more modest 7%, more in line with the general market. In our view, the company is expected to report favorable third quarter results and the shares are undervalued.
As Figure #17 Publishing Industry Comparables chart illustrates, the LEE shares trade at an average industry multiple of 5.8 times Enterprise Value to our 2023 adj. EBITDA estimate. Notably, the company is closing the gap with its Digital Media revenue contribution to that of New York Times, which is currently trading at an estimated 14.5 times EV to 2023 adj. EBITDA. We believe that the valuation gap with the New York Times should close as well. In recent Lee Enterprise news, a buyout specialist investor filed a 13D and indicated interest in taking the company private.While financial players continue to circle the wagons for Lee, we believe that investors should take note. In our view, the LEE shares are compelling and offer a favorable risk/reward relationship.
Figure #15 Publishing Industry Q2 YoY Revenue Growth
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #16 Q2 Publishing Industry EBITDA Margins
Source: Eikon and Company filings
Figure #17 Publishing Industry Comparables
Source: Eikon, Company filings and Nobles estimates
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Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.” FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
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