Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures
More Funding? In testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Appropriations, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas expounded on the Biden Administration’s $8.7 billion supplemental funding request for DHS to cover projected shortfalls, enhance enforcement, and hire additional personnel.
More Beds. One of the key items was increased surge capacity of up to 46,500 ICE detention beds. Recall, the current budgeted amount is 34,000 beds, although the most recent ICE report indicates nearly 37,000 beds were being used as of October 3rd and press reports indicate the current number is closer to 40,000. Additional funding for transportation and the Alternatives to Detention (ATD) program also was requested.
Surge Continues. In October 240,988 people were encountered at the Southwest border, up from 231,529 a year ago and down only modestly from the 269,735 encountered in September. For all of fiscal 2023, there were 2,475,669 border encounters. We would note, in his testimony, Secretary Mayorkas stated that since May 12th, or approximately 6 months, 336,000 individuals have been removed or returned, a fraction of the nearly 1.3 million encounters since then, not to mention the historic numbers prior. And, recall, encounters only represent a portion of total border crossings.
What Does It Mean for CXW and GEO. Assuming the funding is passed, it will have a positive impact on CoreCivic (CXW) and The GEO Group (GEO), at least in the short-term. With CXW and GEO receiving roughly one-third each of new detainees any increase in the overall number of detainees should positively impact operating results, especially given that as of the end of the third quarter, both companies had the majority of their respective ICE facilities at or above the guaranteed minimum level. If the increased number of beds is sticky, it is possible ICE will seek additional facility capacity, potentially enabling CXW and/or GEO to restart a currently idled facility. Finally, any increase in the use of the ISAP program will benefit GEO.
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Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis. Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.” FINRA licenses 7, 24, 63, 87
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Q32 Bio, a clinical-stage biotech developing treatments for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, announced it has entered into a definitive agreement to merge with Homology Medicines in an all-stock deal. The combined company will operate under the Q32 Bio name and focus on progressing Q32’s pipeline of novel immunomodulators.
Q32 is developing bempikibart (ADX-914), an anti-IL-7Rα antibody, as well as ADX-097, a tissue-targeted complement inhibitor. The merger will provide Q32 with access to public markets and additional capital to support the advancement of these programs through upcoming milestones.
Under the terms of the agreement, Homology Medicines shareholders will receive 25% ownership in the combined company, with Q32 shareholders owning 75%. The Board of Directors will consist of seven members from Q32 Bio and two from Homology Medicines. The companies expect the transaction to close in Q1 2024.
Regaining Worldwide Rights to Lead Candidate Bempikibart
Concurrent with the merger announcement, Q32 revealed that it has re-acquired full worldwide rights to bempikibart from Amgen. Q32 originally licensed bempikibart from Amgen in 2021 after the pharma giant took it through Phase 1 trials.
Bempikibart blocks signaling mediated by IL-7 and TSLP to modulate T cell-driven inflammation. It is currently being evaluated in two Phase 2 studies in atopic dermatitis and alopecia areata, with topline results expected in the second half of 2024.
Regaining full rights to bempikibart provides Q32 with greater control over the program’s development and commercial potential. The merger and additional funding will support pivotal studies to bring bempikibart to market.
Advancing Complement Inhibitor ADX-097 into the Clinic
In addition to bempikibart, Q32 is developing ADX-097 as an innovative approach to inhibiting complement activation for autoimmune and inflammatory disorders. Excessive complement activation is implicated in diseases like ANCA-associated vasculitis, IgA nephropathy, and NMOSD.
Unlike current complement drugs that cause systemic inhibition, ADX-097 is engineered to potently inhibit complement only in targeted tissues. This allows greater on-target activity with potentially improved safety.
Q32 recently completed a Phase 1 trial of ADX-097, demonstrating a favorable tolerability and immunogenicity profile. The company will now advance ADX-097 into Phase 2 testing, with initial proof-of-concept data expected by end of 2024 and topline results from two trials in 2H 2025.
Strengthening Financial Position to Reach Critical Milestones
To support its pipeline advancement, Q32 has secured a $42 million private placement in conjunction with the proposed merger. New and existing investors participated, including OrbiMed, Bristol Myers Squibb, Sanofi Ventures and others.
This additional capital will fund operations through several key milestones:
Phase 2 data for bempikibart in atopic dermatitis and alopecia areata in 2H 2024
Initial Phase 2 proof-of-concept data for ADX-097 by end of 2024
Topline Phase 2 results for ADX-097 in 2H 2025
The combined company is expected to have approximately $115 million in cash at closing, providing runway into mid-2026. This strengthened financial position will enable Q32 to reach meaningful catalysts for its lead programs.
Experienced Leadership to Drive Clinical Development
The combined immunology-focused company will be led by the Q32 Bio executive team, including:
Jodie Morrison, CEO
Shelia Violette, PhD, Founder and CSO
Jason Campagna, MD, PhD, CMO
Saul Fink, PhD, CTO
Maria Marzilli, MPH, EVP of Corporate Strategy & Operations
David Appugliese, JD, SVP, Head of People
Q32’s management has extensive experience leading R&D, corporate strategy, and operations at companies like Editas Medicine, Bioverativ, and Ironwood Pharmaceuticals.
Ms. Morrison commented, “The proposed merger with Homology Medicines and concurrent private placement is expected to provide Q32 Bio with the capital to drive development of our autoimmune and inflammatory pipeline through multiple clinical milestones. We look forward to delivering Phase 2 data for bempikibart and ADX-097 that could support the advancement of these programs toward commercialization.”
The transaction will provide Q32 Bio with the financial capacity and public listing to further advance its pipeline of novel immunology therapies for patients with autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. Shareholders of both companies will have the opportunity to realize future value if the combined pipeline progresses as planned.
Validated science-based targets emphasize The ODP Corporation’s commitment to environmental sustainability
BOCA RATON, Fla.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Nov. 16, 2023– The ODP Corporation is proud to announce that it has successfully earned validation from the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi) of its science-based targets for scope 1, scope 2, and scope 3 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This significant milestone demonstrates The ODP Corporation’s commitment to environmental sustainability and aligns with its ongoing efforts to combat the effects of climate change.
The science-based targets reflect The ODP Corporation’s goals for reducing GHG emissions, including a commitment to reduce absolute scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions 46.2% by 2030 from a 2019 base year. The Company further commits to reduce scope 3 GHG emissions from downstream transportation and distribution and use of sold products 55% per USD value added by 2030 from a 2019 base year.
As part of its dedication to driving sustainability throughout its supply chain, The ODP Corporation also commits that 75% of its suppliers by spend covering purchased goods and services will have science-based targets by 2027. This collaborative effort will contribute to reducing emissions and fostering an environmentally responsible business ecosystem.
“We are incredibly proud to have our science-based targets validated, as it underscores our commitment to make meaningful changes in our environmental impact,” said Shannon Hunter, vice president of sustainability at The ODP Corporation. “By setting these targets, we are sending a clear message to all of our stakeholders—including our employees, customers, and partners—that we are dedicated to environmental sustainability and actively reducing our carbon footprint.”
Achieving validation of our science-based targets is a testament to The ODP Corporation’s ongoing sustainability journey. The ODP Corporation remains committed to continuously improving its environmental practices and embracing innovative solutions. This announcement marks a pivotal step forward in the company’s sustainability efforts and reinforces its position as a responsible corporate citizen.
The ODP Corporation (NASDAQ:ODP) is a leading provider of products, services, and technology solutions through an integrated business-to-business (B2B) distribution platform and omnichannel presence, which includes world-class supply chain and distribution operations, dedicated sales professionals, a B2B digital procurement solution, online presence and a network of Office Depot and OfficeMax retail stores. Through its operating companies Office Depot, LLC; ODP Business Solutions, LLC; Veyer, LLC; and Varis, Inc., The ODP Corporation empowers every business, professional, and consumer to achieve more every day. For more information, visit theodpcorp.com.
ODP and ODP Business Solutions are trademarks of ODP Business Solutions, LLC. Office Depot is a trademark of The Office Club, LLC. OfficeMax is a trademark of OMX, Inc. Veyer is a trademark of Veyer, LLC. Varis is a trademark of Varis, Inc. Any other product or company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners.
Annual awards honor technology and business service providers that deliver the highest level of customer service to enterprise clients
LONDON–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Information Services Group (ISG) (Nasdaq: III), a leading global technology research and advisory firm, last night presented the 2023 ISG Star of Excellence Awards™ to Accenture, HCLTech and TCS, recognizing the three service providers for consistently demonstrating the highest standards of customer service excellence in the past year, based on direct feedback from enterprise customers.
In a ceremony at the ISG Sourcing Industry Awards Gala Dinner, held at the conclusion of the ISG Sourcing Industry Conference at the Park Plaza Victoria London, the providers were awarded the sixth annual overall ISG Star of Excellence Awards for earning the highest cumulative customer experience scores across all regions, industries and technology areas.
The ISG Star of Excellence Awards, part of the ISG Provider Lens™ research program, is the premiere industry recognition for the technology and business services industry. Providers are ranked on the quality of their services based on direct feedback from enterprise customers in the areas of Business Continuity and Flexibility; Collaboration and Transparency; Execution and Delivery; Governance and Compliance; Innovation and Thought Leadership, and People and Cultural Fit.
The winners are chosen from among a group of more than 2,000 service providers and vendors ISG analyzes and evaluates each year. This year, ISG received feedback from enterprise clients with roles in IT, operations, lines of business, procurement and vendor management and other areas, and operating in the Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific.
In addition to the overall ISG Star of Excellence Award winners, last night’s ceremony recognized:
The top provider for each emerging technology area, with Hexaware named the universal winner for emerging technology;
The top provider for the Americas (Microland), EMEA (Stefanini) and Asia Pacific (TCS), with Genpact receiving the Global Award;
The top provider for each industry, with Persistent Systems named the universal industry winner;
The top ITO provider for each technology area, with HCLTech named ITO universal technology winner;
The top BPO provider by service area, with HCLTech named the universal BPO winner.
HCLTech was presented with a total of six awards across all categories, TCS a total of four awards and Persistent Systems a total of four awards. A complete list of winners can be found here.
Paul Gottsegen, president of ISG Research and Client Experience, noted the importance of customer feedback to the continued advancement of the entire industry.
“In 2023, more enterprises than ever shared their provider experiences through the ISG Star of Excellence program. This valuable feedback helps providers see themselves through the eyes of their customers and deepens ISG’s understanding of providers to support our research and sourcing advisory services,” said Gottsegen. “We are pleased to see the CX scores of providers are rising, even as clients’ expectations are increasing, especially around innovation and thought leadership.”
The ISG Star of Excellence™ CX research program scores and ranks providers based on customer survey responses. Ongoing surveys ask enterprises to rate their experiences with hundreds of IT and business services providers across industries, regions and technologies. The research goes beyond general satisfaction to explore, in depth, customer experiences with specific services and solutions offered by providers—research that is tied directly to ISG Provider Lens™ quadrant evaluations.
For more information on the ISG Star of Excellence™ continuous CX research program, visit this webpage. Service providers can nominate their customers to be a part of the program at any time throughout the year.
About ISG Provider Lens™ Research
The ISG Provider Lens™ Quadrant research series is the only service provider evaluation of its kind to combine empirical, data-driven research and market analysis with the real-world experience and observations of ISG’s global advisory team. Enterprises will find a wealth of detailed data and market analysis to help guide their selection of appropriate sourcing partners, while ISG advisors use the reports to validate their own market knowledge and make recommendations to ISG’s enterprise clients. The research currently covers providers offering their services globally, across Europe, as well as in the U.S., Canada, Brazil, the U.K., France, Benelux, Germany, Switzerland, the Nordics, Australia and Singapore/Malaysia, with additional markets to be added in the future. For more information about ISG Provider Lens research, please visit this webpage.
A companion research series, the ISG Provider Lens Archetype reports, offer a first-of-its-kind evaluation of providers from the perspective of specific buyer types.
About ISG
ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 900 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,600 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For more information, visit www.isg-one.com.
Conference call scheduled for 5:00 p.m. ET on November 20, 2023
NEW YORK, Nov. 15, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Xcel Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: XELB) (“Xcel” or the “Company”), a media and consumer products company with billions of dollars in retail sales generated by its brands through social commerce and live-stream shopping, today announced that it will report its third quarter 2023 financial results on November 20, 2023. The Company will hold a conference call with the investment community on November 20, 2023, at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Interested parties unable to access the conference call via the webcast may dial 800-715-9871 or 646-307-1963 and use the Conference ID 8167522. A replay of the webcast will be available on Xcel’s website.
About Xcel Brands Xcel Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: XELB) is a media and consumer products company engaged in the design, production, marketing, livestreaming, wholesale distribution and direct-to-consumer sales of branded apparel, footwear, accessories, fine jewelry, home goods and other consumer products, and the acquisition of dynamic consumer lifestyle brands. Xcel was founded in 2011 with a vision to reimagine shopping, entertainment and social media as one thing. Xcel owns the Judith Ripka, Halston, LOGO by Lori Goldstein, and C. Wonder brands and a minority stake in the Isaac Mizrahi brand. It also owns and manages the Longaberger brand through its controlling interest in Longaberger Licensing LLC. Xcel is pioneering a true omni-channel sales strategy that includes the promotion and sale of products under its brands through interactive television, digital livestream shopping, social commerce, brick-and-mortar retail and e-commerce channels. The company’s brands have generated in excess of $4 billion in retail sales via livestreaming in interactive television and digital channels alone.
Headquartered in New York City, Xcel Brands is led by an executive team with significant livestreaming, production, merchandising, design, marketing, retailing and licensing experience and has a proven track record of success in elevating branded consumer products companies. With an experienced team of professionals focused on design, production and digital marketing, Xcel maintains control of product quality and promotion across all of its product categories and distribution channels. Xcel differentiates by design. www.xcelbrands.com
For further information please contact: Andrew Berger SM Berger & Company 216-464-6400 andrew@smberger.com
After a tumultuous year marked by soaring inflation, rising interest rates, and economic uncertainty, the stock markets are finally beginning to show signs of recovery. The recent surge in the Russell 2000, a small-cap index, is a particularly encouraging sign, indicating that investors are regaining confidence and seeking out growth opportunities. This positive momentum is fueled by several factors, including signs of inflation subsiding, the likelihood of no further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, and renewed interest in small-cap companies.
Inflation Under Control
The primary driver of the market’s recent rally is the easing of inflationary pressures. After reaching a 40-year high in June, inflation has been steadily declining, with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showing a year-over-year increase of 6.2%. This moderation in inflation is a welcome relief for investors and consumers alike, as it reduces the burden on household budgets and businesses’ operating costs.
No More Rate Hikes on the Horizon
In response to the surge in inflation, the Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive monetary tightening campaign, raising interest rates at an unprecedented pace. These rate hikes were necessary to curb inflation but also had a dampening effect on economic growth and put downward pressure on stock prices. However, with inflation now on a downward trajectory, the Fed is expected to slow down its rate-hiking cycle. This prospect is positive for the stock market, as it reduces the uncertainty surrounding future interest rate decisions and allows businesses and investors to plan accordingly.
Capital Flows Back to Small Caps
The recent rally in the Russell 2000 is a testament to the renewed interest in small-cap companies. These companies, often considered to be more sensitive to economic conditions than their larger counterparts, have been hit hard by the market volatility of the past year. However, as investors become more optimistic about the economic outlook, they are turning their attention back to small caps, which offer the potential for higher growth and returns.
Light at the End of the Tunnel
The stock market’s recent rally is a promising sign that the worst may be over for investors. While there may still be challenges ahead, the easing of inflation, the prospect of no further rate hikes, and the renewed interest in small-cap companies suggest that there is light at the end of the tunnel. As investors regain confidence and seek out growth opportunities, the stock market is poised for a continued recovery.
Additional Factors Contributing to the Rally
In addition to the factors mentioned above, there are a few other developments that are contributing to the stock market’s recovery. These include:
Strong corporate earnings: Despite the economic slowdown, many companies have reported better-than-expected earnings in recent quarters. This suggests that businesses are able to navigate the current challenges and remain profitable.
Improved investor sentiment: Investor sentiment has improved in recent months, as investors become more optimistic about the economic outlook and the prospects for corporate earnings.
Increased retail investor participation: Retail investors have been a major force in the stock market in recent years, and their continued participation is helping to support the rally.
The Road Ahead
While the stock market has shown signs of recovery, there are still some risks that investors should be aware of. These include:
The possibility of a recession: While the economy is slowing down, there is still a possibility that it could tip into a recession. This would have a negative impact on corporate earnings and stock prices.
Geopolitical tensions: The war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions are creating uncertainty and could lead to market volatility.
Rising interest rates: Even if the Fed slows down its rate-hiking cycle, interest rates are still expected to be higher than they were before the pandemic. This could continue to put pressure on stock prices.
Despite these risks, the overall outlook for the stock market is positive. The easing of inflation, the prospect of no further rate hikes, and the renewed interest in small-cap companies are all positive signs that suggest the market is on a path to recovery. As investors regain confidence and seek out growth opportunities, the stock market is poised to continue its upward trajectory.
Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Fostering advanced exploration technologies. Comstock is collaborating with its strategic investee Quantum Generative Materials (GenMat) to develop and expand the next generation geostatistical digital model of its most strategic mining development areas, including the November launch of a space-based hyperspectral imager that will extract relevant chemical and physical information for high precision mineral prospecting. The goal is to incorporate innovative technology within its exploration activities to increase mineral resources to two million gold equivalent ounces.
Successful launch of satellite and imager. GENMAT-1 was launched via Maverick Space Systems aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 Transporter rocket from Vandenberg Space Force Base in Lompoc, California on November 11. At an altitude of 500 kilometers, the satellite will continuously capture and transmit hyperspectral image data of minerals and surface matter. The initial mission is to capture hyperspectral data of the Comstock Lode.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Registration Approval. MustGrow announced that its TerraSante product received the Washington State Department of Agriculture Fertilizer Registration Certificate and will apply to TerraSante product sales in Washington State. This comes after it was awarded an organic compliance certification from the USDA National Organic Program (OMRI) at the end of last month.
Near Future Revenue. Now being able to sell TerraSante, MustGrow has formed a sales & marketing commercialization strategy in conjunction with BioAg Product Strategies for the 2024 planting season. In the state, agriculture production totaled $9.49 billion, with the state being the largest producer of apples, blueberries, hops, pears, etc. Organic acres total 105,660, representing $652 million in total farm gate sales. We believe there is opportunity for MustGrow to market TerraSante to farmers and has the organic certificates to support it.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Schwazze (OTCQX:SHWZ, NEO:SHWZ) is building a premier vertically integrated regional cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico and will continue to take its operating system to other states where it can develop a differentiated regional leadership position. Schwazze is the parent company of a portfolio of leading cannabis businesses and brands spanning seed to sale. The Company is committed to unlocking the full potential of the cannabis plant to improve the human condition. Schwazze is anchored by a high-performance culture that combines customer-centric thinking and data science to test, measure, and drive decisions and outcomes. The Company’s leadership team has deep expertise in retailing, wholesaling, and building consumer brands at Fortune 500 companies as well as in the cannabis sector. Schwazze is passionate about making a difference in our communities, promoting diversity and inclusion, and doing our part to incorporate climate-conscious best practices.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
3Q23 Results. Revenue of $46.7 million was up 8.2% y-o-y and in-line with our $47 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $14.1 million and the Company generated $6.9 million of CFFO. The bottom line was impacted by a number of one-time impacts, which resulted in a $1.9 million loss, or a loss of $0.03/sh. We had forecast a $7.1 million loss, or a loss of $0.10/sh.
Light. The overall environment remains challenged, whether due to supply, less demand or increased competition, but there are pockets of light suggesting we should see incremental improvement in the environment over time. Schwazze continues to stay the course and we expect them to come out of the current malaise a stronger, better positioned company.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Codere Online refers, collectively, to Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. and its subsidiaries. Codere Online launched in 2014 as part of the renowned casino operator Codere Group. Codere Online offers online sports betting and online casino through its state-of-the art website and mobile application. Codere currently operates in its core markets of Spain, Italy, Mexico, Colombia, Panama and the City of Buenos Aires (Argentina). Codere Online’s online business is complemented by Codere Group’s physical presence throughout Latin America, forming the foundation of the leading omnichannel gaming and casino presence in the region.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Strong Q3 results. The company reported Q3 revenue of €43.2 million, beating our estimate of €37.0 million by 16.8%. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was zero, which was substantially better than our estimate of negative €6.2 million. The better than expected Q3 results were driven by strong year over year revenue growth in Spain and Mexico.
Key market performance. The company’s strong Q3 performance is partially due to year over year revenue growth of 63% in Mexico and 27% in Spain. Revenue growth in both regions was driven by an increase in the number of users and increased spend per customer. Additionally, increased profitability in the quarter was partially due to reduced marketing spend from the prior year period.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Consumers tapped out from inflation may finally get a reprieve this holiday season in the form of falling prices. According to Walmart CEO Doug McMillon, deflation could be on the horizon.
On a Thursday earnings call, McMillon said the retail giant expects to see deflationary trends emerge in the coming weeks and months. He pointed to general merchandise and key grocery items like eggs, chicken, and seafood that have already seen notable price decreases.
McMillon added that even stubbornly high prices for pantry staples are expected to start dropping soon. “In the U.S., we may be managing through a period of deflation in the months to come,” he said, welcoming the change as a benefit to financially strapped customers.
His comments echo optimism from other major retailers that inflation may have peaked. Earlier this week, Home Depot CFO Richard McPhail remarked that “the worst of the inflationary environment is behind us.”
Government data also hints the pricing pressures are easing. The consumer price index (CPI) for October was flat compared to September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, dipped to a two-year low.
This emerging deflationary environment is a reprieve after over a year of runaway inflation that drove the cost of living to 40-year highs. Everything from groceries to household utilities saw dramatic price hikes that squeezed family budgets.
But the October CPI readings suggest the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes are having the desired effect of reining in excessive inflation. As supply chains normalize and consumer demand cools, prices are softening across many categories.
For instance, the American Farm Bureau Federation calculates that the average cost of a classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 will be $64.05 this year – down 4.5% from 2022’s record high of $67.01. The drop is attributed largely to a decrease in turkey prices.
Still, consumers aren’t out of the woods yet when it comes to stubborn inflation on essentials. While prices are down from their peak, they remain elevated compared to historical norms.
Grocery prices at Walmart are up mid-single digits versus 2022, though up high-teens compared to 2019. Many other household basics like rent, medical care, and vehicle insurance continue to rise at above average rates.
And American shopping habits reflect the impact of lingering inflation. Walmart CFO John David Rainey noted consumers have waited for discounts before purchasing goods such as Black Friday deals.
McMillon indicated shoppers are still monitoring spending carefully. So while deflationary pressure is a tailwind, Walmart doesn’t expect an abrupt return to pre-pandemic spending patterns.
The retailer hopes to see food prices in particular come down faster, as grocery inflation eats up a significant chunk of household budgets. But experts warn it could take the rest of 2023 before inflation fully normalizes.
Consumers have been resilient yet cautious under economic uncertainty. If deflation takes root across the retail landscape, it could provide much-needed relief to wallets and mark a turning point toward recovery. For now, the environment looks favorable for a little more jingle in shoppers’ pockets this holiday season.
Against the odds, the US economy appears poised to stick the landing from a period of scorching inflation without plunging into recession. This smooth descent towards more normal inflation, known as a “soft landing”, has defied most economists’ expectations thus far.
Just months ago, fears of an imminent downturn were widespread. Yet October’s inflation print showed consumer prices rising 3.2% annually – down markedly from a 40-year high of 9.1% in 2022. More importantly, core inflation excluding food and energy eased to 2.8% over the last 5 months – barely above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
This disinflation is occurring while job gains continue and economic growth rebounds. Employers added a solid 204,000 jobs per month over the past quarter. GDP growth also accelerated to a robust 4.9% annualized pace in Q3, its fastest since late 2021.
Such resilience has led forecasters like Oxford Economics’ Nancy Vanden Houten to now predict, “What we are expecting now is a soft landing.” Avoiding outright recession while taming inflation would be a major feat. In the past 80 years, the Fed has never managed it without sparking downturns.
Cooling inflation gives the central bank room to moderate its fierce rate hike campaign. Since March, the Fed lifted its benchmark rate range to a restrictive 5.25%-5.50% from near zero to squash rising prices.
Investors are betting these tightening efforts have succeeded, with futures implying rate cuts could come as early as May 2023. Markets rallied strongly after October’s consumer price report.
Risks Remain However, risks abound on the path to a soft landing. Inflation remains well above the Fed’s goal, consumer spending is softening, and ongoing rate hikes could still bite.
“It looks like a soft landing until there’s some turbulence and things get hairier,” warns Indeed economist Nick Bunker.
While consumers powered the economy earlier in recovery, retail sales just declined for the first time since March. Major retailers like Home Depot and Target reveal shoppers are pulling back. If consumers continue retreating, recession odds could rise again.
The Fed likely needs more definitive proof before declaring victory over inflation. Chairman Jerome Powell still stresses the need for “sufficiently restrictive” rates to hit the 2% target sustainably.
Further shocks like energy price spikes or financial instability could also knock the economy off its delicate balancing act. For now, the coveted soft landing finally looks achievable, but hazards remain if inflation or growth falter.
Navigating the Descent Amid this precarious environment, how should investors, policymakers and everyday Americans navigate the descent?
For the Fed, it means walking a tightrope between overtightening and loosening prematurely. Moving too fast risks recession, while moving too slowly allows inflation to become re-entrenched. Gradually slowing rate hikes as data improves can guide a gentle landing.
Investors should prepare for further turbulence, holding diversified assets that hedge against inflation or market swings. Seeking prudent VALUE rather than chasing speculative growth is wise at this late stage of recovery.
Consumers may need to budget conservatively, pay down debts, and boost emergency savings funds. With caution, America may yet stick an elusive soft landing during this perilous inflationary journey.
Total revenue was €41.1 mm in Q3 2023, while net gaming revenue1 was €43.2 mm in the period, 42% and 41% above those from Q3 2022, respectively.
Mexico revenue was €18.8 mm in Q3 2023, while net gaming revenue1 was €21.0 mm in the period, 63% above Q3 2022.
Spain revenue (and net gaming revenue) reached €18.9 mm in Q3 2023, 27% above Q3 2022.
Net loss was €1.8 mm in Q3 2023 versus a net loss of €11.6 mm in Q3 2022.
Total cash position of €43 mm as of September 30, 2023.
Increasing full year 2023 net gaming revenue and Adj. EBITDA outlook to €155-165 mm and negative €10-18 mm, respectively, and reiterating plan to be Adj. EBITDA and cash flow positive for the full year in 2024.
Madrid, Spain and Tel Aviv, Israel, November 15, 2023 – (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) Codere Online (Nasdaq: CDRO / CDROW, “the Company”), a leading online gaming operator in Spain and Latin America, has released its financial results for the third quarter and nine month period ended September 30, 2023.
Below are the main financial and operating metrics of the period.
Quarter ended September 30
Nine Months ended September 30
2022
2023
Chg. %
2022
2023
Chg. %
Net Gaming Revenue (EUR mm)1
Spain
14.9
18.9
27%
42.2
54.9
30%
Mexico
12.9
21.0
63%
34.8
56.6
63%
Colombia
1.9
1.8
(5%)
5.6
6.2
11%
Other
0.9
1.5
67%
2.7
4.1
52%
Total
30.6
43.2
41%
85.2
121.8
43%
Avg. Monthly Active Players (000s)2
Spain
35.2
41.0
16%
37.1
40.6
10%
Mexico
37.4
51.8
39%
34.3
50.3
46%
Colombia
24.2
22.7
(6%)
25.4
24.7
(3%)
Other
7.5
9.0
20%
6.8
9.1
34%
Total
104.3
124.5
19%
103.6
124.7
20%
Aviv Sher, CEO of Codere Online, stated, “We’re very pleased with our performance in the third quarter and to be presenting another set of impressive results. This quarter we not only posted significant net gaming revenue growth of 41% to €43 million, but also took a significant step in our path to profitability with break even Adjusted EBITDA in the period. It was a solid quarter for sports betting, with the return of the major sporting events, but also for our casino product, which contributed 58% of our revenue in the period.”
Mr. Sher further added, “Mexico continued to exceed our expectations with revenue growth of 63% in the third quarter, reaching €21.0 million and consolidating its position as our largest market (by revenue) ahead of Spain, where net gaming revenue also grew by an impressive 27%, to €18.9 million.”
Oscar Iglesias, CFO of Codere Online, stated, “Our third quarter results have shown that the combination of a strong brand, high-quality customer acquisitions and an attractive product offering has allowed us to deliver not only strong top line growth but also a significant improvement in profitability, with our first quarter of breakeven Adjusted EBITDA less than two years following our U.S. listing.”
Mr. Iglesias further added, “Based on these strong results and recent trading activity, we now expect to generate between €155-165 million of net gaming revenue and negative €10-18 million in Adjusted EBITDA in 2023, and reaffirm that we expect to generate positive Adjusted EBITDA and cash flow for the full year in 2024.”
Conference Call Information
Codere Online’s management will host a conference call to discuss the results and provide a business update at 8:30 am US Eastern Time today, November 15, 2023. Dial-in details as well as the audio webcast and presentation will be accessible on Codere Online’s website at www.codereonline.com. A recording of the webcast will also be available following the conference call.
Reconciliation of Revenue (IFRS) to Net Gaming Revenue (non-IFRS)
Quarter ended September 30
Nine Months ended September 30
Figures in EUR mm
2022
2023
Chg. %
2022
2023
Chg. %
Total
Revenue
28.9
41.1
42%
80.1
115.7
44%
(+) Accounting Adjustments3
1.7
2.2
29%
5.1
6.1
20%
Net Gaming Revenue
30.6
43.2
41%
85.2
121.8
43%
Spain
Revenue
14.9
18.9
27%
42.2
54.9
30%
(+) Accounting Adjustments3
–
–
n.m.
–
–
n.m.
Net Gaming Revenue
14.9
18.9
27%
42.2
54.9
30%
Mexico
Revenue
11.4
18.8
65%
31.0
50.7
64%
(+) Accounting Adjustments3
1.4
2.3
64%
3.8
5.9
55%
Net Gaming Revenue
12.9
21.0
63%
34.8
56.6
63%
Colombia
Revenue
1.8
1.8
–
4.6
6.5
41%
(+) Accounting Adjustments3
0.1
(0.1)
n.m.
1.0
(0.3)
(130%)
Net Gaming Revenue
1.9
1.8
(5%)
5.6
6.2
11%
Other
Revenue
0.7
1.5
114%
2.3
3.6
57%
(+) Accounting Adjustments3
0.2
(0.0)
(100%)
0.4
0.5
25%
Net Gaming Revenue
0.9
1.5
67%
2.7
4.1
52%
About Codere Online Codere Online refers, collectively, to Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. and its subsidiaries. Codere Online launched in 2014 as part of the renowned casino operator Codere Group. Codere Online offers online sports betting and online casino through its state-of-the art website and mobile applications. Codere currently operates in its core markets of Spain, Mexico, Colombia, Panama and the City of Buenos Aires (Argentina). Codere Online’s online business is complemented by Codere Group’s physical presence in Spain and throughout Latin America, forming the foundation of the leading omnichannel gaming and casino presence.
About Codere Group Codere Group is a multinational group devoted to entertainment and leisure. It is a leading player in the private gaming industry, with four decades of experience and with presence in seven countries in Europe (Spain and Italy) and Latin America (Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Panama, and Uruguay).
Note on Rounding. Due to decimal rounding, numbers presented throughout this report may not add up precisely to the totals and subtotals provided, and percentages may not precisely reflect the absolute figures.
Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements in this document may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the “safe harbor” provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. and its subsidiaries (collectively, “Codere Online”) or Codere Online’s or its management team’s expectations, hopes, beliefs, intentions or strategies regarding the future. In addition, any statements that refer to projections, forecasts or other characterizations of future events or circumstances, including any underlying assumptions, are forward-looking statements. The words “anticipate,” “believe,” “continue,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intends,” “may,” “might,” “plan,” “possible,” “potential,” “predict,” “project,” “should,” “would” and similar expressions may identify forward-looking statements, but the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements in this document may include, for example, statements about Codere Online’s financial performance and, in particular, the potential evolution and distribution of its net gaming revenue; any prospective and illustrative financial information; and changes in Codere Online’s strategy, future operations and target addressable market, financial position, estimated revenues and losses, projected costs, prospects and plans.
These forward-looking statements are based on information available as of the date of this document and current expectations, forecasts and assumptions, and involve a number of judgments, risks and uncertainties. Accordingly, forward-looking statements should not be relied upon as representing Codere Online’s or its management team’s views as of any subsequent date, and Codere Online does not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date they were made, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required under applicable securities laws.
As a result of a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties, Codere Online’s actual results or performance may be materially different from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. There may be additional risks that Codere Online does not presently know or that Codere Online currently believes are immaterial that could also cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Some factors that could cause actual results to differ include (i) changes in applicable laws or regulations, including online gaming, privacy, data use and data protection rules and regulations as well as consumers’ heightened expectations regarding proper safeguarding of their personal information, (ii) the impacts and ongoing uncertainties created by regulatory restrictions, changes in perceptions of the gaming industry, changes in policies and increased competition, and geopolitical events such as war, (iii) the ability to implement business plans, forecasts, and other expectations and identify and realize additional opportunities, (iv) the risk of downturns and the possibility of rapid change in the highly competitive industry in which Codere Online operates, (v) the risk that Codere Online and its current and future collaborators are unable to successfully develop and commercialize Codere Online’s services, or experience significant delays in doing so, (vi) the risk that Codere Online may never achieve or sustain profitability, (vii) the risk that Codere Online will need to raise additional capital to execute its business plan, which may not be available on acceptable terms or at all, (viii) the risk that Codere Online experiences difficulties in managing its growth and expanding operations, (ix) the risk that third-party providers, including the Codere Group, are not able to fully and timely meet their obligations, (x) the risk that the online gaming operations will not provide the expected benefits due to, among other things, the inability to obtain or maintain online gaming licenses in the anticipated time frame or at all, (xi) the risk that Codere Online is unable to secure or protect its intellectual property, and (xii) the possibility that Codere Online may be adversely affected by other political, economic, business, and/or competitive factors. Additional information concerning certain of these and other risk factors is contained in Codere Online’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements concerning Codere Online or other matters and attributable to Codere Online or any person acting on their behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements above.
Financial Information and Non-GAAP Financial Measures Codere Online’s financial statements are prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (“IFRS”), which can differ in certain significant respects from generally accepted accounting principles in the United States of America (“U.S. GAAP”).
This document includes certain financial measures not presented in accordance with U.S. GAAP or IFRS (“non-GAAP”), such as, without limitation, net gaming revenue and Adjusted EBITDA. These non-GAAP financial measures are not measures of financial performance in accordance with U.S. GAAP or IFRS and may exclude items that are significant in understanding and assessing Codere Online’s financial results. Therefore, these measures should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative to revenue, net income, cash flows from operations or other measures of profitability, liquidity or performance under U.S. GAAP or IFRS. You should be aware that Codere Online’s presentation of these measures may not be comparable to similarly-titled measures used by other companies. In addition, the audit of Codere Online’s financial statements in accordance with PCAOB standards, may impact how Codere Online currently calculates its non-GAAP financial measures, and we cannot assure you that there would not be differences, and such differences could be material.
Codere Online believes that the use of these non-GAAP financial measures provides an additional tool for investors to use in evaluating ongoing operating results and trends in comparing Codere Online’s financial measures with other similar companies, many of which present similar non-GAAP financial measures to investors. These non-GAAP financial measures are subject to inherent limitations as they reflect the exercise of judgments by management about which expense and income are excluded or included in determining these non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable measure under IFRS are included herein.
This document may include certain projections of non-GAAP financial measures. Codere Online is unable to quantify certain amounts that would be required to be included in the most directly comparable U.S. GAAP or IFRS financial measures without unreasonable effort, due to the inherent difficulty and variability of accurately forecasting the occurrence and financial impact of the various adjusting items necessary for such comparable measures or such reconciliation that have not yet occurred, are out of our control, or cannot be reasonably predicted, ascertained or assessed, which could have a material impact on its future IFRS financial results. Consequently, no disclosure of estimated comparable U.S. GAAP or IFRS measures is included and no reconciliation of the forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures is included.
Use of Projections This document contains financial forecasts with respect to Codere Online’s business and projected financial results, including net gaming revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Codere Online’s independent auditors have not audited, reviewed, compiled or performed any procedures with respect to the projections for the purpose of their inclusion in this document, and accordingly, they did not express an opinion or provide any other form of assurance with respect thereto for the purpose of this document. These projections should not be relied upon as being necessarily indicative of future results. The assumptions and estimates underlying the prospective financial information are inherently uncertain and are subject to a wide variety of significant business, economic and competitive risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in the prospective financial information. See “Forward-Looking Statements” above. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that the prospective results are indicative of the future performance of Codere Online or that actual results will not differ materially from those presented in the prospective financial information. Inclusion of the prospective financial information in this document should not be regarded as a representation by any person that the results contained in the prospective financial information will be achieved.
For further information on the limitations and assumptions underlying these projections, please refer to Codere Online’s filings with the SEC.
Preliminary Information This document contains figures, financial metrics, statistics and other information that is preliminary and subject to change (the “Preliminary Information”). The Preliminary Information has not been audited, reviewed, or compiled by any independent registered public accounting firm. This Preliminary Information is subject to ongoing review including, where applicable, by Codere Online’s independent auditors. Accordingly, no independent registered public accounting firm has expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance with respect to the Preliminary Information. During the course of finalizing such Preliminary Information, adjustments to such Preliminary Information presented herein may be identified, which may be material. Codere Online undertakes no obligation to update or revise the Preliminary Information set forth in this document as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as otherwise required by law. The Preliminary Information may differ from actual results. Therefore, you should not place undue reliance upon this Preliminary Information. The Preliminary Information is not a comprehensive statement of financial results, and should not be viewed as a substitute for full financial statements prepared in accordance with IFRS. In addition, the Preliminary Information is not necessarily indicative of the results to be achieved in any future period.
No Offer or Solicitation This document does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities, nor will there be any sale of securities in any states or jurisdictions in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such jurisdiction. No offering of securities will be made except by means of a prospectus meeting the requirements of section 10 of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or an exemption therefrom.
Industry and Market Data In this document, Codere Online relies on and refers to certain information and statistics obtained from publicly available information and third-party sources, which it believes to be reliable. Codere Online has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of any such publicly-available and third-party information, does not make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such data and does not undertake any obligation to update such data after the date of this document. You are cautioned not to give undue weight to such industry and market data.
Contacts:
Investors and Media Guillermo Lancha Director, Investor Relations and Communications Guillermo.Lancha@codere.com (+34)-628-928-152
1 Net Gaming Revenue is a non-IFRS measure. Please see reconciliation of Net Gaming Revenue to Revenue at the end of the report. 2 Average Monthly Active Players include real money (i.e. exclude free bets) sports betting and casino actives and will differ from certain prior period reports which only included real money sports betting actives. 3 Figures primarily reflect differences in recognition of revenue related to certain partner and affiliate agreements in place in Colombia and VAT impact from entry fees in Mexico.
