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The Microstrategy Plan for Bitcoin is to Hold “Forever”

Posted on December 29, 2022December 29, 2022 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Bitcoin’s Largest Corporate Owner Sold But Remains a net Buyer

“Bitcoin is the exit strategy,” says Michael Saylor, the Executive Chairman overseeing Microstrategy (MSTR), a company he founded. The comment was to a question in a Twitter Space interview with Eric Weiss of Bitcoin Roundtable. During this insightful interview, it becomes clear that the enterprise analytics company stands behind its commitment to the cryptocurrency and is investing in the ecosystem in other ways. Saylor also addressed his recent sale of 704 bitcoin, explaining it created tax benefits that serve stockholders.

The Company is a Bitcoin Maximalist

Bitcoin owners are “Either traders, technocrats, or maximalists.” Explained Saylor in the podcast-style interview.

Accordingly, Saylor says, traders don’t have any opinion on it long-term other than it’s an asset that moves enough to trade. Holding times may be minutes or months.

Technocrats view bitcoin as a digital monetary network like Google or Facebook. It’s a big tech network to them, so if they are bullish on big tech, they will hold bitcoin. And they may try to time their investments based on economic trends.

Maximalists view bitcoin as an instrument of economic empowerment that is just good for the human race. If you’re a maximalist, you don’t try to time it, and you have a much longer time horizon. While the technocrats are looking out 3-5 years, and they think that’s long, maximalists are looking out 10-100 years. Part of that is believing this is good for the human race.

“We’re maximalists, we think bitcoin is more than a digital monetary network; we think it is the digital monetary network. It’s good for the human race, and anything we can do in order to encourage adoption of bitcoin, and help with the adoption, is going to be good for the world.” Saylor while discussing Microstrategy.

Saylor’s company is the largest owner of bitcoin, costing Microstrategy a little more than $4 billion, the crypto assets are now valued just above $2 billion. Saylor says how we acquire bitcoin is less market-driven, as this is permanent capital that flows into the bitcoin ecosystem. Permanent capital that becomes part of the Microstrategy enterprise. Capital that is ongoing and may be held as a base forever.

In Response to December Selling

Michael Saylor recently took some criticism for selling 704 bitcoin after previously repeating he won’t sell bitcoin. He put the confusion to rest by explaining the benefit to stockholders of tax loss harvesting. With crypto the selling is treated as property so you can take the capital loss, “so we have some capital gains we pay taxes on, and then we have some capital, losses in bitcoin, so by selling the bitcoin, and taking the capital loss, we’re able to use that to offset some capital gains.” He added, it’s very tax efficient for the corporation.” Which is good for shareholders.

Lightning Network

Lightning allows “lightning-fast” blockchain payments without worrying about block confirmation times. Payment speed measured in milliseconds to seconds.Security is enforced by blockchain smart-contracts without creating an on-blockchain transaction for individual payments.

Microstrategy has said they will be offering bitcoin Lightning solutions in the first quarter of 2023. This tech investment in the growth of Microstrategy is another way Saylor and company support the bitcoin ecosystem.“If bitcoin is the underlying base layer, I think that Lightning is money over IP.” He said it’s an open permissionless protocol to let eight million people move money and monetary assets at the speed of light.

“We want to make it possible for any enterprise to spin up Lighting infrastructure in an afternoon” and onboard thousands of employees or customers, Saylor explained. “We want to plug it into enterprise technology and make it a marketing strategy for any forward-thinking CMO.”

Areas that MicroStrategy is exploring for Lightning services include online content monetization, enterprise marketing, web paywalls, and internal corporate controls. Every chief marketing officer should be able give away satoshis –– Bitcoin’s smaller denomination unit –– as incentive for customers

Take Away

Bitcoin still has its perma-bulls. Michael Saylor of Microstrategy is solidly in that category. He is not necessarily bullish on other crypto or digital currencies, bitcoin is the digital currency in his mind, and he intends for the ongoing holding of bitcoin and growth of the company in other ways that support its adoption.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1mrGmkzmmbDxy?s=20

https://cointelegraph.com/news/microstrategy-bitcoin-purchase-divides-the-crypto-community

https://www.microstrategy.com/en/investor-relations

Release – PDS Biotech Reports Median Overall Survival (OS) of 21 Months in Advanced, Refractory Cancer Patients Having Few Remaining Treatment Options and with Reported Historical Survival of 3-4 months

Posted on December 28, 2022December 28, 2022 by cpatches

Research News and Market Data on PDSB

Median OS of 21 months in 29 checkpoint inhibitor (CPI) refractory HPV16-positive cancer patients in National Cancer Institute-led Phase 2 clinical trial of PDS0101 triple combination

FLORHAM PARK, N.J., Dec. 28, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — PDS Biotechnology Corporation (Nasdaq: PDSB), a clinical-stage immunotherapy company developing a growing pipeline of targeted immunotherapies for cancer and infectious disease, today announced expanded interim data in a Phase 2 clinical trial investigating the PDS0101-based triple combination therapy in advanced human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive cancers. The triple combination of PDS0101 with the tumor-targeting IL-12 fusion protein M9241 (formerly known as NHS-IL12), and bintrafusp alfa, a bifunctional fusion protein targeting two independent immunosuppressive pathways (PD-L1 and TGF-β), is being studied in CPI-naïve and CPI-refractory patients with advanced HPV-positive anal, cervical, head and neck, vaginal, and vulvar cancers.

The triple combination Phase 2 trial (NCT04287868) is being conducted at the Center for Cancer Research (CCR) at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), one of the Institutes of the National Institutes of Health.

All patients in the study had failed prior treatment with chemotherapy and 90% had failed radiation treatment. The interim efficacy data (n=50) involves 37 HPV16-positive evaluable patients, including 29 patients who have, in addition, failed treatment with CPIs (CPI refractory). Highlights of the expanded interim data are as follows and are consistent with the results presented at American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting 2022 and prior interim data announced in October:

Median OS is 21 months in 29 checkpoint inhibitor refractory patients who received the triple combination. The reported historical median OS in patients with CPI refractory disease is 3-4 months.
In CPI naïve subjects, 75% remain alive at a median follow-up of 27 months. As a result, median OS has not yet been reached. Historically median OS for similar patients with platinum experienced CPI naïve disease is 7-11 months.
Objective response rate (ORR) in CPI refractory patients who received the optimal dose of the triple combination is 63% (5/8). In current approaches ORR is reported to be less than 10%.
ORR in CPI naïve patients with the triple combination is 88%. In current approaches ORR is reported to be less than 25% with FDA-approved CPIs in HPV-associated cancers.
Safety data have not changed since October’s update. 48% (24/50) of patients experienced Grade 3 (moderate) treatment-related adverse events (AEs), and 4% (2/50) of patients experienced Grade 4 (severe) AEs, compared with approximately 70% of patients receiving the combination of CPIs and chemotherapy reporting Grade 3 and higher treatment-related AEs.

“The expanded data continue to demonstrate the durability and tolerability of the PDS0101-based triple combination therapy in advanced HPV-positive cancers, an extremely challenging population of refractory and previously untreatable HPV-positive patients,” stated Dr. Frank Bedu-Addo, President and Chief Executive Officer of PDS Biotech. “We are pleased to see the continued consistency in the data with each update and we look forward to meeting with the FDA to discuss the registrational pathway.”

Both M9241 and bintrafusp alfa are owned by Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany, and its affiliates.

About PDS Biotechnology

PDS Biotech is a clinical-stage immunotherapy company developing a growing pipeline of targeted cancer and infectious disease immunotherapies based on our proprietary Versamune^® and Infectimune™ T cell-activating technology platforms. We believe our targeted Versamune^® based candidates have the potential to overcome the limitations of current immunotherapy by inducing large quantities of high-quality, potent polyfunctional tumor specific CD4+ helper and CD8+ killer T cells. To date, our lead Versamune^® clinical candidate, PDS0101, has demonstrated the potential to reduce tumors and stabilize disease in combination with approved and investigational therapeutics in patients with a broad range of HPV-positive cancers in multiple Phase 2 clinical trials. Our Infectimune™ based vaccines have also demonstrated the potential to induce not only robust and durable neutralizing antibody responses, but also powerful T cell responses, including long-lasting memory T cell responses in pre-clinical studies to date. To learn more, please visit www.pdsbiotech.com or follow us on Twitter at @PDSBiotech.

About PDS0101

PDS Biotech’s lead candidate, PDS0101, combines the utility of the Versamune^® platform with targeted antigens in HPV-positive cancers. In partnership with Merck & Co., PDS Biotech is evaluating a combination of PDS0101 and KEYTRUDA^® in a Phase 2 study in first-line treatment of recurrent or metastatic head and neck cancer, and also in second line treatment of recurrent or metastatic head and neck cancer in patients who have failed prior checkpoint inhibitor therapy. A Phase 2 clinical study is also being conducted in both second- and third-line treatment of multiple advanced HPV-positive cancers in partnership with the National Cancer Institute (NCI). A third phase 2 clinical trial in first line treatment of locally advanced cervical cancer is being performed with The University of Texas, MD Anderson Cancer Center.

KEYTRUDA^® is a registered trademark of Merck Sharp and Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA.

Forward Looking Statements

This communication contains forward-looking statements (including within the meaning of Section 21E of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and Section 27A of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended) concerning PDS Biotechnology Corporation (the “Company”) and other matters. These statements may discuss goals, intentions and expectations as to future plans, trends, events, results of operations or financial condition, or otherwise, based on current beliefs of the Company’s management, as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to, management. Forward-looking statements generally include statements that are predictive in nature and depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, and include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “would,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “likely,” “believe,” “estimate,” “project,” “intend,” “forecast,” “guidance”, “outlook” and other similar expressions among others. Forward-looking statements are based on current beliefs and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement as a result of various factors, including, without limitation: the Company’s ability to protect its intellectual property rights; the Company’s anticipated capital requirements, including the Company’s anticipated cash runway and the Company’s current expectations regarding its plans for future equity financings; the Company’s dependence on additional financing to fund its operations and complete the development and commercialization of its product candidates, and the risks that raising such additional capital may restrict the Company’s operations or require the Company to relinquish rights to the Company’s technologies or product candidates; the Company’s limited operating history in the Company’s current line of business, which makes it difficult to evaluate the Company’s prospects, the Company’s business plan or the likelihood of the Company’s successful implementation of such business plan; the timing for the Company or its partners to initiate the planned clinical trials for PDS0101, PDS0203 and other Versamune^® and Infectimune™ based product candidates; the future success of such trials; the successful implementation of the Company’s research and development programs and collaborations, including any collaboration studies concerning PDS0101, PDS0203 and other Versamune^® and Infectimune™ based product candidates and the Company’s interpretation of the results and findings of such programs and collaborations and whether such results are sufficient to support the future success of the Company’s product candidates; the success, timing and cost of the Company’s ongoing clinical trials and anticipated clinical trials for the Company’s current product candidates, including statements regarding the timing of initiation, pace of enrollment and completion of the trials (including the Company’s ability to fully fund its disclosed clinical trials, which assumes no material changes to our currently projected expenses), futility analyses, presentations at conferences and data reported in an abstract, and receipt of interim or preliminary results (including, without limitation, any preclinical results or data), which are not necessarily indicative of the final results of the Company’s ongoing clinical trials; any Company statements about its understanding of product candidates mechanisms of action and interpretation of preclinical and early clinical results from its clinical development programs and any collaboration studies; and other factors, including legislative, regulatory, political and economic developments not within the Company’s control, including unforeseen circumstances or other disruptions to normal business operations arising from or related to COVID-19. The foregoing review of important factors that could cause actual events to differ from expectations should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with statements that are included herein and elsewhere, including the risk factors included in the Company’s annual and periodic reports filed with the SEC. The forward-looking statements are made only as of the date of this press release and, except as required by applicable law, the Company undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statement, or to make any other forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Versamune^® is a registered trademark and Infectimune™ is a trademark of PDS Biotechnology.

Investor Contacts:
Deanne Randolph
PDS Biotech
Phone: +1 (908) 517-3613
drandolph@pdsbiotech.com

Rich Cockrell
CG Capital
Phone: +1 (404) 736-3838
pdsb@cg.capital

Media
Tiberend Strategic Advisors, Inc.
Dave Schemelia
Phone: +1 (609) 468-9325
dschemelia@tiberend.com

Bill Borden
Phone: +1 (732) 910-1620
bborden@tiberend.com

Maple Gold Mines (MGMLF) – Looking Ahead to a Catalyst-Rich 2023

Posted on December 28, 2022December 28, 2022 by cpatches

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A top pick for 2023. During our recent Wall Street Wish List virtual conference, we highlighted our top picks for 2023. Maple Gold Mines Ltd. earned its place based on several competitive advantages, including a large 400 square kilometer land package in a prime location within the highly ranked mining jurisdiction of Quebec, a growing gold resource with significant expansion potential, an experienced management team and industry-leading joint venture partner, and a strong balance sheet.

World class potential. We believe Maple Gold represents an emerging world class gold project in Quebec’s renowned Abitibi Gold Belt. The company is well capitalized and is focused on establishing a new gold district through resource expansion and new discoveries. Both the Douay and Joutel projects have multiple styles of mineralization, including deep controlling structures, which are favorable for exploration and discovery of mineralized systems. Mines in the Abitibi are known for vertical continuity with higher grades at depth. Consequently, there is significant potential to increase the average resource grade with higher grade discoveries at depth.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – Another Difficult Quarter

Posted on December 28, 2022December 28, 2022 by cpatches

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Lowered Expectations. Last week, Great Lakes provided an update for 4Q22, with revenue and gross margins expected to be below previous forecasts. Recall, management had previously expected revenue of $175-$185 million and gross profit margin (gpm) in the “high single digits” for 4Q22. We had estimated revenue of $175 million and a gpm of 6.9%.

Impacts. The quarter is being impacted by a number of items, including the early retirement of the Terrapin Island, unexpected drydocking scope increases for the Ellis Island and Padre Island, weather delays on several projects in the northeast, and some project production issues.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – A Ballast for Portfolios in an Uncertain Market Environment

Posted on December 28, 2022December 28, 2022 by cpatches

Wednesday, December 28, 2022

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A top pick for 2023. During our recent Wall Street Wish List virtual conference, we highlighted our top picks for 2023. Alliance Resource Partners earned its place based on a superb management team, favorable fundamental outlook, and positive cash flow growth outlook. While fossil fuels are out of favor in some quarters, they power our economy. In our view, the geopolitical weaponizing of global energy supplies, along with the recent cold snap across the U.S. underscore the importance of reliable and affordable domestic supplies of coal, oil, and natural gas. Demand for fossils fuels will likely increase, with renewable energy increasing its share of the market share over time.

Earnings visibility is very strong. During the third quarter, Alliance executed new coal sales commitments for delivery of 5.6 million tons through 2025 at prices supporting higher margins. Based on contracted coal sales volumes in 2023 and 2024, the outlook for cash flow growth appears favorable. Alliance recently added a fifth continuous mining unit at its Gibson South mine and is adding another unit at the Hamilton mine. Within the oil and gas royalty segment, volumes are expected to benefit from two recent acquisitions that added 1,200 producing wells, 101 wells to be completed and 98 permitted locations on the acquired acreage.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Investor Opportunities that May Occur Early in 2023

Posted on December 28, 2022December 28, 2022 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Will Stocks Snap Back After Tax-Loss Selling?

Offsetting portfolio capital gains by taking losses is permitted by the IRS. Within the tax guidelines, this generally occurs during the last month of the year as individuals and financial advisors strive to minimize money owed to the IRS. The stocks sold, naturally, are underperformers. This activity has a tendency to set the stage for a late December rally or a January rebound. This is especially true of the sectors or asset classes that were most sold. This is because portfolio managers often wish to keep a similar allocation, which translates to them then waiting 30 days or more before buying something that may be viewed as substantially similar.

With the major indexes like the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Small Cap S&P 600 all down double digits this year, there are stocks that are doing far worse than index averages – just as there are stocks doing far better. Of course, if you own an ETF, you have to treat it like it is one stock and cannot offset a good underlying individual company sold with an underperforming company. In this way, holders of individual company shares can benefit more because they will have more options. And may even find it easier to qualify for the additional $3,000 tax benefit the IRS allows.

Why Might January Reverse December’s Slide

What happens after the 30-day period? Some investors try to get in, or back in, early with the notion that the most beaten-down stocks from 30 days earlier, could quickly bounce back hard for a time. This would all begin to occur following what could be perceived as the tax loss selling dip, (aged 30 days). The so-called Santa Rally is somewhat attributed to this, but that rally has not occurred during December 2022. The chart above shows a very weak December. So the buying may be postponed until early next year.

Without substantial buying this December, the first month or two of 2023 may bring buying as investors replace holdings for allocation purposes, plus any additional purchases used to bring the beaten-down sectors’ portfolio weightings up to whatever fits the investors’ strategy.

DoubleLine founder Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC on Wednesday that risk assets will likely rally in January once retail investors finish tax-loss selling. Strategists at Evercore wrote on Nov. 30 that they were “buyers of stocks whose 2022 tax loss selling pressure will soon abate.”

Take Away

The main drivers of market moves next year are likely economic concerns such as inflation, recession, and monetary policy. But the potential for the most beaten down sectors this year, those that underperformed in December, may represent opportunity. The opportunity may not be long-lived, but for those involved in the markets, it is worth understanding why it may be occurring.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.cnbc.com/pro/follow-the-pros/

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/tax-loss-selling-battered-us-stocks-could-spur-january-snap-back-2022-12-08/

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tax-loss-carryforward.asp#:~:text=What%20Is%20a%20Tax%20Loss,reduce%20any%20future%20tax%20payments.

Investment Entry and Allocation Thoughts for 2023

Posted on December 28, 2022December 28, 2022 by phoffman@channelchek.com

As the Bear Market Melts Down, Where Will the Grass Be Greenest?

Bear Markets and snowmen have one thing in common; they don’t last forever.

The entry point into an investment can have a huge impact on performance. Exits tend to be more critical when the stock has shown that it is not performing as planned. While this kind of exit may result in a loss, it allows the investor to preserve capital, liquid assets they can deploy if another good entry presents itself. The major stock market indices for 2022 are down 20% and more. Has this sell-off provided for performance-producing entry points in some stocks? Let’s look where we are as the countdown to 2023 has already begun.

About this Bear Market

Bear markets end – they always have. Pinpointing an exact bottom is not possible, so trying to be the first in for that great entry point may include a few false starts and some unhoped-for exits. The current slide in the stock market started around January 1, 2022. This was because some doubted whether inflation was transient at the time; by March, most understood the Fed was concerned that price increases were pervasive.

Fed Chair Powell, along with many Fed Presidents, began speaking hawkishly to not unduly surprise and unsettle markets as the central bank unwound the liquidity used in response to the novel coronavirus. What followed was unprecedented. Overnight lending rates went from an effective 0.08% to an effective 4.33% during the course of the year. This is more than 52 times the base lending rate at the start of the year. With these increases, no wonder the bear market continued.

Where Are We Now?

Expectations of overnight rate hikes in 2023 are for another 0.50%-0.75% increase leaving the target at, or just north of, 5%. This increase in the cost of money is small (.17 times) compared to the massive (52 times) rocking the markets in 2022.

So rate hikes are expected to be much lower as a percentage of current rates next year. And after the last FOMC meeting, markets have seemingly repriced lower with this expectation. If all goes as it is thought it will, the market is already priced for the worst. This is a bullish sign.

Put another way; most believe that with Fed funds beginning 2022 around zero, we’re likely much closer to the end of the Fed Funds tightening than to the beginning.

Inflation (CPI) for December won’t be reported until January 12, 2023. The latest CPI numbers show YoY up 7.1% in November, a slowing from 7.7% in October, which tapered from 8.2% the month before. The November reading of 7.1% taken by itself is a long way away from the Fed’s 2% target. But the trend in the CPI and PCE deflator also suggest the Fed is likely to monitor previous hikes to see if they will have the desired impact.

The Fed Has Been Transparent

The Fed lowered rates in line with what they promised during the pandemic. Then after some transient talk, they raised rates as they expressed they would in 2022. Following the December FOMC meeting, they suggested they were not at the end, but the voting members’ expectations for where they will settle is an average of 5.40%. The forward-looking stock market, if they believe the Fed will again do as promised, should recognize this is a much lower increase. It is perhaps near the time to begin to build on positions. This could be the entry point many investors have been waiting for.

Small Cap Phenomenon

The chart below shows how much small cap stocks outperformed during the 12- months following the pandemic plunge. While small cap outperformance has been experienced during the past century of stocks’ post-sell-off periods, one only has to look back to the pandemic plunge to remember that it was small-caps (depicted below as IWM) that had been beaten down the most and by far outran the other major indices for the next year from the low of 2021.

Could this small cap phenomenon occur again after markets reach the bottom? Data demonstrates that small cap stocks tend to lead following a period of economic dislocation. One reason is US small caps have more of their business within the states and as a bonus, do well with a rising dollar. Current conditions suggest exploring smaller stocks. They have outperformed large caps following nearly every bear market of the last century. And today, the dollar has risen above its six-month high and is trending higher. While past movement comparisons don’t always include all the crosscurrents of the future, a strong argument could be made that a turnaround is near and small caps may again be the leaders by a wide margin.

Some Disclosure

Channelchek, the investment information platform you’re now reding has small cap stocks as its primary focus. The deep platform provides data on over 6000 stocks, with quality research updated regularly on many of them. Channelchek also provides videos and articles that may inspire informed stock selection. Stock selection, rather than just plowing investment dollars into an indexed ETF, may be preferable as indexed ETFs include sectors and stocks that may not be worthy of your portfolio.

Diversification across asset classes, sectors, and market capitalizations is considered prudent for long-term portfolios; individual allocations can be built on depending on where we are in the business and interest rate cycle. This includes an allocation to small cap equities, which perhaps should be expanded if the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle. It could always be reduced later if the economy is deep into a growth cycle.

Take Away

Although we do not have a crystal ball to know exactly when the best entry point in any company stock is, if a century’s worth of data is any guide, the period following the end of a market downturn has been a good time to increase exposure to the small cap sector.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

https://www.newyorklifeinvestments.com/insights/investing-in-small-caps-following-a-market-downturn

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

Should We Tax Robots?

Posted on December 27, 2022December 27, 2022 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Could a Modest Levy Combat Automation’s Impact on Income Imbalance?

Peter Dizikes | MIT News Office

What if the U.S. placed a tax on robots? The concept has been publicly discussed by policy analysts, scholars, and Bill Gates (who favors the notion). Because robots can replace jobs, the idea goes, a stiff tax on them would give firms incentive to help retain workers, while also compensating for a dropoff in payroll taxes when robots are used. Thus far, South Korea has reduced incentives for firms to deploy robots; European Union policymakers, on the other hand, considered a robot tax but did not enact it.

Now a study by MIT economists scrutinizes the existing evidence and suggests the optimal policy in this situation would indeed include a tax on robots, but only a modest one. The same applies to taxes on foreign trade that would also reduce U.S. jobs, the research finds.

“Our finding suggests that taxes on either robots or imported goods should be pretty small,” says Arnaud Costinot, an MIT economist, and co-author of a published paper detailing the findings. “Although robots have an effect on income inequality … they still lead to optimal taxes that are modest.”

Specifically, the study finds that a tax on robots should range from 1 percent to 3.7 percent of their value, while trade taxes would be from 0.03 percent to 0.11 percent, given current U.S. income taxes.

“We came into this not knowing what would happen,” says Iván Werning, an MIT economist and the other co-author of the study. “We had all the potential ingredients for this to be a big tax, so that by stopping technology or trade, you would have less inequality, but … for now, we find a tax in the one-digit range, and for trade, even smaller taxes.”

The paper, “Robots, Trade, and Luddism: A Sufficient Statistic Approach to Optimal Technology Regulation,” appears in the advance online form in The Review of Economic Studies. Costinot is a professor of economics and associate head of the MIT Department of Economics; Werning is the department’s Robert M. Solow Professor of Economics.

A Sufficient Statistic: Wages

A key to the study is that the scholars did not start with an a priori idea about whether or not taxes on robots and trade were merited. Rather, they applied a “sufficient statistic” approach, examining empirical evidence on the subject.

For instance, one study by MIT economist Daron Acemoglu and Boston University economist Pascual Restrepo found that in the U.S. from 1990 to 2007, adding one robot per 1,000 workers reduced the employment-to-population ratio by about 0.2 percent; each robot added in manufacturing replaced about 3.3 workers, while the increase in workplace robots lowered wages about 0.4 percent.

In conducting their policy analysis, Costinot and Werning drew upon that empirical study and others. They built a model to evaluate a few different scenarios, and included levers like income taxes as other means of addressing income inequality.

“We do have these other tools, though they’re not perfect, for dealing with inequality,” Werning says. “We think it’s incorrect to discuss this taxes on robots and trade as if they are our only tools for redistribution.”

Still more specifically, the scholars used wage distribution data across all five income quintiles in the U.S. — the top 20 percent, the next 20 percent, and so on — to evaluate the need for robot and trade taxes. Where empirical data indicates technology and trade have changed that wage distribution, the magnitude of that change helped produce the robot and trade tax estimates Costinot and Werning suggest. This has the benefit of simplicity; the overall wage numbers help the economists avoid making a model with too many assumptions about, say, the exact role automation might play in a workplace.

“I think where we are methodologically breaking ground, we’re able to make that connection between wages and taxes without making super-particular assumptions about technology and about the way production works,” Werning says. “It’s all encoded in that distributional effect. We’re asking a lot from that empirical work. But we’re not making assumptions we cannot test about the rest of the economy.”

Costinot adds: “If you are at peace with some high-level assumptions about the way markets operate, we can tell you that the only objects of interest driving the optimal policy on robots or Chinese goods should be these responses of wages across quantiles of the income distribution, which, luckily for us, people have tried to estimate.”

Beyond Robots, an Approach for Climate and More

Apart from its bottom-line tax numbers, the study contains some additional conclusions about technology and income trends. Perhaps counterintuitively, the research concludes that after many more robots are added to the economy, the impact that each additional robot has on wages may actually decline. At a future point, robot taxes could then be reduced even further.

“You could have a situation where we deeply care about redistribution, we have more robots, we have more trade, but taxes are actually going down,” Costinot says. If the economy is relatively saturated with robots, he adds, “That marginal robot you are getting in the economy matters less and less for inequality.”

The study’s approach could also be applied to subjects besides automation and trade. There is increasing empirical work on, for instance, the impact of climate change on income inequality, as well as similar studies about how migration, education, and other things affect wages. Given the increasing empirical data in those fields, the kind of modeling Costinot and Werning perform in this paper could be applied to determine, say, the right level for carbon taxes, if the goal is to sustain a reasonable income distribution.

“There are a lot of other applications,” Werning says. “There is a similar logic to those issues, where this methodology would carry through.” That suggests several other future avenues of research related to the current paper.

In the meantime, for people who have envisioned a steep tax on robots, however, they are “qualitatively right, but quantitatively off,” Werning concludes.

Reprinted with permission of MIT News” (http://news.mit.edu/)

How Inflation Clips Age Groups Differently

Posted on December 27, 2022December 27, 2022 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Inflation for Americans at Each Age

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices rose 9.1% from June 2021 to June 2022, the highest rate since 1981. That figure is an average of price increases for bananas, electricity, haircuts, and more than 200 other categories of goods and services. But households in different age groups spend money differently, so inflation rates vary by age, too. The diagrams below show average spending for households at different ages, in the categories that make up the inflation index.

Young households spend more of their budgets on gasoline, where prices rose 60% in the last year. Gasoline has been the largest single-category driver of inflation since March 2021, accounting for nearly 25% of inflation by itself. Gas has had an outsized impact considering that the category is 4.8% of Consumer Price Index spending. (Gasoline prices began falling in mid-June.)

Measured in dollars, gasoline spending peaks around age 40, according to government surveys.

But, as a percentage of spending, gasoline spending is highest for the youngest households.

Sources:
US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Consumer Expenditure Survey
Consumer Price Index

Taking an average of all categories, as the inflation index does, shows that inflation is currently highest for younger households. It is about 2 percentage points higher for households headed by 21-year-olds as it is for octogenarians who live at home. That has not been true for most of the last 40 years. Inflation rates calculated in this way were higher for older households as recently as early 2021, when medical care costs were rising faster than gasoline prices.

These estimates are imperfect. The Bureau of Labor Statistics notes in its estimate of inflation for elderly households that different age groups may buy different items within each category or buy them from different types of stores. They may also live in locations with costs of living so dissimilar that national changes in prices are not relevant. Over the past 12 months, inflation was 6.7% in the New York City metropolitan area and 12.3 in the Phoenix metropolitan area, due in part to different housing markets.

The above was adapted from USAFacts and is the intellectual property of USAFacts protected by copyrights and similar rights. USAFacts grants a license to use this Original Content under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 (or higher) International Public License (the “CC BY-SA 4.0 License”).

The Week Ahead – Boxing Day Closes Some Markets on 27th

Posted on December 27, 2022December 27, 2022 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Investors Watching for a “Santa Rally” the Last Trading Week of 2022

Stocks in the US closed higher Friday after consumer inflation continued to ease modestly, and consumer expectations are for the trend to continue. This could set the stage for the week ahead as some expect the probability of a “Santa rally” as investors may begin using their dry powder to wave in some stocks that have gone down with the crowd but are historically cheap and showing value.

Stock markets in London, Toronto, Sydney, Hong Kong, and Johannesburg are closed. on Tuesday, December 27, since Boxing Day was already a holiday since Christmas fell on a Sunday.

The four-day trading week ahead includes the latest data on home prices with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index and Freddie Mac’s House Price Index (October). On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will issue pending home sales figures (November). The strength of the manufacturing sector on Friday, with the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December, has market-moving potential on the last trading day of the year.

Monday 12/26

Markets and Government Offices closed.

Tuesday 12/27

Stock markets in London, Toronto, Sydney, Hong Kong, and Johannesburg are closed.
8:30 AM ET, The US Goods Deficit (Census basis) is expected to narrow to $97.0 billion in November after deepening by more than $6 billion in October to $98.8 billion.
8:30 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories, where buildups have been lessening, are expected to rise 0.4 percent in the advance report for November.
9:00 AM ET, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, forecasters see the adjusted 20-city monthly rate falling 1.2 percent again in October after a decline of 1.2 percent in September for an unadjusted annual rate of 8.1 percent versus September’s 10.4 percent.

Wednesday 12/28

10:AM ET, Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, the manufacturing composite is expected at minus 6, in December vs. minus 9 in November and minus 10 in October.

Thursday 12/29

8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the December 29 week are expected to come in at 222,000 versus 216,000 in the prior week.

Friday 12/30

• 9:45 AM ET, The Chicago PMI is expected to bounce back in December to 41.0 versus November’s much weaker-than-expected 37.2.

The Bond markets are scheduled to close at 2 PM. Stocks have the benefit of a full trading day to close out 2022.

What Else

Replays of the Noble Capital Markets analysts’ discussions of companies they cover on Wall Street Wish List, are now available on Channelchek to help you create your own wish list for 2023. Find them here in Channelchek’s Video Content Library. And if you haven’t signed up for regular emails from Channelchek now is a good time to sign-up and see how helpful they are

Happy New Year from the entire content team at Channelchek!

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-open-closed-today-hours-boxing-day-christmas-51671801332

https://www.aarp.org/money/investing/info-2022/stock-market-holidays.html#:~:text=The%20bond%20markets%20shut%20down,Friday%2C%20Dec.%2030).

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

Delivery Speeds Have Normalized Supply Chain as We Head Into 2023

Posted on December 23, 2022December 23, 2022 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Improved Delivery Speeds Could Lower Inflation

Delivery speeds of goods worldwide have improved, impacting everything from shipping and freight to retail stores – and it should help provide a lower inflationary balance between demand and supply. Demand is waning, and supply speeds are normalizing. Months-long back-ups of ships are now gone, with shipping rates close to pre-pandemic levels, the post-pandemic era now has to adjust again.

Supply Chain Pressure

A government measure compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) consisting of transportation and manufacturing pressures, called the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Pressure (GSCPI), shows significant easing during 2022.

Data Source: BLS via Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Global supply chain pressures are well off the high reached last December, although they have just modestly ticked up. The largest contributor to this slight reversal is the increase in supply chain pressures from Chinese delivery times, though improvements were shown in U.S. delivery times and Taiwanese purchases. The GSCPI’s recent movements suggest that developments in Asia are slowing down the return of the index back to historical levels.

Shipping Impact

Goods are moving through the largest U.S. port complex faster than at any time since cargo was backed up for weeks at the Los Angeles-Long Beach docks during the pandemic. The average dwell time for containers is just 2.8 days, according to the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association. Meanwhile, U.S. container imports reached their lowest level in November since the early months of 2020.

The improvements and reduced demand have impacted ocean shipping rates. The daily spot rate to move a shipping container from Asia to the U.S. West coast is near $1,400, down from about $7,500 in July and roughly $15,000 a year ago, according to the Freightos Baltic Index. This current cost represents a slight discount over pre-pandemic rates.

Freight Impact

Maersk is a large logistics company that is involved in many aspects of shipping and tracking. Vincent Vlerc will take over as CEO on January 1. Mr. Clerc said, “You can’t deploy more capacity than what our customers need.” He explained, “we are going through a significant inventory correction in the U.S. and Europe, and we made significant capacity adjustments to our capacity in and out of Asia.” Maersk has indicated it is transporting 30% fewer containers across the Pacific since last year.

The current chief executive of Maersk, Soren Skou said, “it’s obvious that freight rates peaked and began to normalize, driven by falling demand and an easing supply-chain congestion.” In November, the shipping company lowered its 2023 forecast for container demand. It now expects a decline from 2% to 4%, from a maximum decline of 1% previously.

Rail Transportation

The major railroads, in addition to having averted a strike, have managed to hire more train and engine crew members during the second half of 2022. Recruiting had been challenging earlier. They reopened some hump yards and took out locomotives from storage to help ease some bottlenecks.

These changes helped to improve rail service from a low in the Spring when dwell time and train speeds were historically low. “We have turned the corner on service,” Norfolk Southern CEO Alan Shaw said during the company’s investor day in early December.

The railroads say they intend to draw more cargo currently on trucks back to rail, as rail service improves.

Parcel Delivery

FedEx and other regional carriers are having an easier time delivering packages. On Tuesday, FedEx reported average daily parcel volumes fell 10.2%, declining for the fourth straight quarter. There is a trend where shoppers are venturing back out; this has reduced online shopping.

There is now a surplus of capacity to deliver packages. In 2020 and 2021, their ability to deliver fell short of daily capacity.

Before the holiday season, parcel carriers noted consumers had reduced online orders. People seemingly have other pent-up demands to meet. They have resumed spending on travel, parties, and entertainment. Also, in-person shopping has increased post-pandemic.

Impact on Retail

After more than a year of paying higher and higher prices for shipped goods, Walmart and other retailers can resist price increases. In fact, they may even be successful negotiating discounts. With significant inventory and, in some cases, excess inventory, retailers have more bargaining power with shippers and suppliers. Dollar General Corp., after years of blaming high transportation costs as a drag on the business, said in December that falling transit prices could begin lifting the company in 2023.

Take Away

A new balance is being found in the shipping and delivery of goods. Where there was once more demand than supply, a more normal balance is surfacing. This balance is a relief to both sellers and buyers as products become available. Even more, it is likely to help bring inflation down. Also working to help this balance is higher interest rates that are intended to slow demand while supply-side channels catch up. The balance is much closer than it was when the Fed began tightening, this helps bring the costs of goods down, and as an added gift to those most hurt by inflation, it also has helped ease tight labor markets.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive

https://www.maersk.com/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inventory-pileup-uneasy-shoppers-put-retailers-in-jeopardy-11661690106?mod=article_inline

https://www.wsj.com/articles/supply-chains-upended-by-covid-are-back-to-normal-11671746729?mod=Searchresults_pos2&page=1

https://www.wsj.com/articles/supply-chains-upended-by-covid-are-back-to-normal-11671746729?mod=hp_lead_pos6

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inventory-pileup-uneasy-shoppers-put-retailers-in-jeopardy-11661690106?mod=article_inline

https://www.wsj.com/articles/walmart-is-flexing-its-muscle-again-11668229212?mod=article_inline

TAAL Distributed Information Technologies (TAALF) – Terminating Research Coverage

Posted on December 23, 2022December 23, 2022 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Friday, December 23, 2022

TAAL Distributed Information Technologies Inc. delivers value-added blockchain services, providing professional-grade, highly scalable blockchain infrastructure and transactional platforms to support businesses building solutions and applications upon the BitcoinSV platform, and developing, operating, and managing distributed computing systems for enterprise users.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Terminating Research Coverage. As expected, TAAL announced the completion of the previously announced plan to take the Company private. Calvin Ayre has acquired all of the remaining TAALF common shares and now owns 100%. The transaction was approved by the Ontario Superior Court of Justice on December 21st. TAALF common shares will be de-listed from the Canadian Securities Exchange no later than the close of business on December 23, 2022. As a result, we are terminating research coverage of TAAL Distributed Information Technologies. Effective upon termination of coverage, investors should no longer rely on any of our prior research, financial estimates, or ratings for the Company.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Aurania Resources (AUIAF) – Private Placement Financing Closed; Drilling Continues at Tatasham

Posted on December 23, 2022December 23, 2022 by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Friday, December 23, 2022

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Private placement closed. Aurania closed the second and final tranche of its private placement of 4,244,598 units of the company for gross proceeds of approximately C$1.9 million. A total of 2,417,166 and 1,827,432 units were sold in the first and final tranches, respectively. In each case, units were priced at C$0.45 per unit and were comprised of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.75 per warrant share for up to 24 months following the date of issuance. Net proceeds will be used to fund drilling and exploration activities at the Lost Cities project, along with working capital needs.

Drilling continues at Tatasham. Drilling began at the Tatasham porphyry copper target in late November. Except for a brief holiday break, drilling is expected to continue through January 2023. The company expects to drill three or four holes at Tatasham to test areas identified during the company’s Anaconda mapping program. Following Tatasham, the company anticipates drilling at the Awacha porphyry copper target.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).