Markets Archives - Page 21 of 78

What Investors Learned in May That They Can Use in June

Posted on June 1, 2023June 1, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Looking Back at the Markets in May and Forward to June

Conviction in the overall stock market was weak in May, while enthusiasm for specific sectors was strong. June investors may regain some clarity as markets may be relieved from the debt ceiling dark cloud that kept investors overly cautious. But a renewed fear that the Fed is losing ground to inflation may become the focal point until the coming FOMC meeting. In the meantime, any increase in the debt limit signed into law kicks the can down the road, ongoing increases in borrowing and spending may not haunt the overall market in June, but the path of escalating debt is unsustainable for a healthy U.S. economy.

The next scheduled FOMC meeting is June 13-14. We will have another look at consumer inflation numbers before the June 14 Fed monetary policy decision date CPI (June 13).

While the Fed is wrestling with stubborn inflation, it is keeping an eye on the strong labor markets, which provides leeway and perhaps even a strong reason fo it to continue riding the economic break pedal by being increasingly less accommodative. Although low unemployment is desirable, tight labor markets are helping to drive prices up. The Fed aims to find a better balance.

Look Back

Three broad stock market indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000) are positive on the month of May. The Dow Industrials spent the entire month in negative territory. The Nasdaq 100 was the big winner (+8.7%) on the back of tech stocks as many have been inspired by the earnings performance and stock price performance of Nvidia (NVDA). The S&P 500 (+1.46%) and Russell 2000 (+1.21%) had a good showing putting the Russell 2000 back in positive territory for 2023. The Dow Industrials is negative (-2.30%), leaving this NYSE index down (-.72%) on the year.

During June, inflation showed signs that it was not decelerating but instead could be building strength. While the Fed raised rates by .25% and continued on pace with quantitative tightening, the impact has been seen as a sharp decrease in money supply (M2), but the central banks’ intended effect has not been realized.

Monetary policy is seen as having a lagging effect; that is to say, when the Fed pushes rates up today, it may take a year to work its way into the system to cause slowing and less demand to reduce price increases. Whether the Fed has done enough can only be seen in the rearview mirror months from now.

Market Sector Lookback

Of the 11 S&P market sectors (SPDRs), three were in positive territory as May came to a close. Technology, ticker XLK (+8.85%), was the only sector that showed an increase the previous month as well (.08%). That is followed by Communications Services, ticker XLC (3.92%), and Consumer Discretionary, ticker XLY, (+3.56%).

The S&P 500, which is comprised of the 11 market sectors, was barely positive during the month of May (+56%).

Of the three worst performers are Industrials, ticker XLI (-3.67%), it faired the best as the industrial sector has been relatively flat on the year. The Materials, ticker XLB, (-6.87%) took a larger hit as commodities prices dropped during the month; this sector was positive on the year going into May. Energy, ticker XLE, (-11.73%) has been volatile during 2023. It is just off its low (-12%) that it reached in mid-March.

Looking Forward

The job market is strong, and inflation, at best, isn’t declining; this makes it more comfortable for the Fed to raise rates. Another way to look at it is it creates a need for them to continue to hammer away to reverse the inflationary trend – and the economic latitude in which to do it.

While the energy sector was the worst performer among S&P 500 sectors, there are factors suggesting the trend could hold until OPEC and Russia begin to work in synch again. Oil prices are near their lowest levels all year, reflecting a drop in global demand, on the output side, since October, OPEC+ was supposed to be reducing production by 3.5 million barrels a day. There are signs that a key country in the alliance isn’t adhering to the announced production cuts. Whether this causes additional “cheating”, or causes the cartel to force members to fall in line remains to be seen.

Technology stocks, particularly those that could possibly benefit from the artificial intelligence revolution, are likely to be among the focus for a while. The sudden broad awareness of what the technology can do has sent investors scrambling for exposure. Whether the potential (AI) is unleashed quickly or the promise of AI now takes a slower road remains to be seen.

The Russell Reconstitution will be complete as of the first Monday in June. The index will have its new components and the portfolio managers of indexed funds ought to own the stocks that were added to the indexes in their funds and sell out of those that are no longer in the funds index. This creates a lot of activity around June 24. When the market opens on June 27, the index with its new makeup will be set.

Take-Away

The market was full of uncertainty in May. Yet three of the four major market indexes were higher. The signing into law of an increased debt ceiling will make one of the most worrisome objections to being involved disappear. This may unleash buyers that were sidelined.

Technology, caused by high expectations of AI was the focus during May; often, hype causes investors to shoot first and aim later. There will be winners and losers in this technology segment, as with any investment; remove yourself from the hype, carefully evaluate the opportunity, and read the professional research, positive and negative, of those you trust.

By the end of the month we will have two quarters of 2023 behind us, and there are no signs of a recession and little on the horizon to cause U.S. growth to falter quickly enough for there to be a recession this year. It is unlikely the Fed will ease in 2023. It is, however, likely a pause will eventually happen. There are reasons to believe that the pause won’t happen in June.

The axiom, sell in May and walk away is in question. Three of the four major indexes were up in May, so the jury is still out as to whether selling made sense for 2023.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting

Koyfin | Advanced graphing and analytical tools for investors

Should Investors Expect Ongoing Monetary Policy Tightening Through 2023?

Posted on May 31, 2023May 31, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Is the Fed Falling Behind on Slowing the Economy?

Is the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy losing out to inflationary pressures? While supply chain costs have long been taken out of the inflation forecast, demand pressures have been stronger than hoped for by the Fed. One area of demand is the labor markets. While the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate to keep prices stable and maximize employment, the shortage of workers is adding to demand-pull inflation as wages are a large input cost in a service economy. As employment remains strong, they have room to raise rates, but if strong employment is a significant cause of price pressures, they may decide to keep the increases coming.

Background

The number of new jobs unfilled increased last month as US job openings rose unexpectedly in April. The total job openings stood at 10.1 million. Make no mistake, the members of the Fed trying to steer this huge economic ship would like to see everyone working. However, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reporting “unemployed persons” at 5.7 million in April as compared to 10.1 million job openings, creates far more demand than there are people to fill the positions. Those with the right skills will find their worth has climbed as they get bid up by employers that are still financially better off hiring more expensive talent rather than doing without.

This causes wage inflation as these increased business costs work their way down into the final cost of goods and services we consume, as inflation.

Where We’re At

The 10.1 million job openings employers posted is an increase from the 9.7 million in the prior month. It is also the most since January 2023. In contrast, economists had expected vacancies to slip below 9.5 million. The increase and big miss by economists’ forecasting increases in job opportunities is a clear sign of strength in the nation’s labor market. This complicates Chair Jerome Powell’s position, along with other Fed members.

It isn’t popular to try to crush demand for new employees, but rising consumer costs at more than twice the Fed’s target will be viewed as too much.

The Fed says that it is data driven, this data is unsettling for those hoping for a pause or pivot.

The Investment Climate

These numbers and other strong economic numbers that were reported in April, create some uncertainty for investors as most would prefer to see the Fed stimulating rather than tightening conditions.

But the market has been resilient, despite the Feds’ resolve. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate ten times in the last 14 months. Yet jobs remain unfilled, and the stock market has gained quite a bit of ground in 2023. The concern has been that the Fed may overdo it and cause a recession. While even the Fed Chair admitted this is a risk he is willing to take, he also added that it is easier to start a stalled economy than it is to reel one in and the inflation that goes along with expansion.

So the strong labor market (along with other recent data releases) provides room for the Fed to tighten as there are still nearly two jobs for every job seeker. Additional tightening will eventually have the effect of simmering inflation to a more tolerable temperature. If the Fed overdoes it on the brake pedal, according to Powell, he knows where the gas pedal is.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Demystifying Enterprise Value: Unlocking Opportunities in the Stock Market

Posted on May 30, 2023May 30, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Why Some Investors Evaluate a Stock Using Enterprise Value vs. Market Cap

Stock selection between different companies is always an apples to oranges comparison – even when the companies are in the same industry. But uncovering comparative value among the universe of stocks and other investment options is fundamental to successful investing. So successful stock market investors must sift for certain criteria, these filters are often financial measures. While data such as Earnings Per Share and P/E ratio get a lot of attention, other metrics may help investors sort and filter to create their watch list, as some companies move toward the investor’s buy list. One of these is Enterprise Value in comparison to Market Capitalization.

Understanding Enterprise Value

Enterprise value (EV) is the total value of a company, defined in terms of its financing. It includes the current market capitalization (share price x shares outstanding) and compares it to the cost to pay off debt, then adds in asset values. The below calculation results in establishing the company’s enterprise value, indicating what one might think should be the minimum needed to buy the company.

EV=Market Cap+Debt-Cash

The result can be thought of as the potential cost to acquire a business based on the company’s capital structure. As a concept, enterprise value gives you a realistic starting point for what one would need to spend to acquire a public company outright. In reality, it typically takes a premium to EV for an acquisition offer to be accepted.

Trading Below Enterprise Value

When a company is trading below its enterprise value, it suggests that the market is valuing the company at a price lower than what its underlying assets would be worth if sold separately. In some circumstances, This situation presents investors with potential opportunities and indicates that further research and investigation may be prudent.

A popular example of a company that has traded below EV, or less than the net of its assets and debt, is Apple. The company has had on its books massive amounts of cash, along with longer-term assets, the value less any debt is higher than the market cap (Outstanding Shares x Price Per Share).

Looking for Potential Buys

There are times when it may be worth considering an investment in a company that is trading below its enterprise value:

Temporary Market Pessimism: Companies may experience short-term setbacks, negative market sentiment, or sector-wide pessimism that leads to their stock price trading below enterprise value. It is important to assess whether the company’s fundamental strengths remain intact despite these challenges. If the negative sentiment appears temporary and the company is expected to rebound, it could be a window of opportunity.

Mispricing and Market Inefficiencies: The stock market is less than perfectly efficient, and mispricings do occur. Investors who identify stocks trading below enterprise value due to market inefficiencies can potentially capitalize on these pricing discrepancies. The investor may have to roll up their sleeves to do more analysis to determine whether the undervaluation is based on actual fundamental weaknesses or if it is a result of temporary market inefficiencies.

Asset-Rich Companies: Companies with significant tangible or intangible assets, such as real estate, patents, or intellectual property, may trade below enterprise value. Investors may find these stocks attractive as the underlying assets can provide a margin of safety and potential upside. Assessing the value and potential monetization of these assets is crucial before considering an investment.

In the case of Apple above, cash is easier to evaluate than real estate, patents, or other assets.

Considering Sellling

While stocks trading below enterprise value can present attractive opportunities, there are circumstances when it may be wise to consider selling.

Fundamental Deterioration: If a company’s underlying financials are weakening, for example, declining sales, increasing debt levels, or increased costs of doing business could indicate a problem. It is important to evaluate whether the company’s operational challenges are likely to persist, as this could impact its ability to sustain value.

Industry Decline or Structural Issues: Some companies trade below enterprise value due to broader industry decline or structural issues specific to the company. If the industry’s prospects are exoeriencing prolonged weakening, or the company faces inherent challenges that limit its growth potential, it may be prudent to sell the stock, even if it appears undervalued based on enterprise value alone.

Take Away

Understanding enterprise value and using it while sifting through opportunities could help bring stocks to the surface that one may not have considered.

Using EV as an evaluation tool is not a slam dunk, if investing was that easy we’d all be wealthier. However it is a good starting point to isolate stocks and then evaluate why they may be trading below EV. Is it warranted, is it unwarranted?

Let Channelchek be your data source for small and microcap stocks, many of which can be found to be trading below enterprise value. Sign-up for a no-cost account and gain access to information to over 6,000 less talked about companies as well as insightful daily emails.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/enterprisevalue.asp

The Week Ahead – Debt Ceiling, Beige Book, and Employment

Posted on May 30, 2023May 30, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

The Holiday Shortened Trading Week Started with Positive Market News

It’s a four-day trading week in the US as the calendar changes from May to June. The US stock and bond markets will open on Tuesday knowing a government debt default is now likely averted as President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy reached an agreement Sunday on a deal to raise the nation’s debt ceiling. They have ensured the citizenry they have enough support in Congress to pass the measure this coming week. As far as economic reports, jobs and the labor market will be in the spotlight.

The market is focused on the labor market because Fed policymakers are paying attention to jobs numbers to determine if conditions are so strong they may indicate wage inflation or if they weakened and not strong enough to withstand another rate hike at the June 13-14 FOMC meeting.

Tuesday 5/30

• 9:00 AM ET, FHFA House Price Index. While interest rates have risen, housing prices have been flat to up. Continued demand caused prices to increase by .5% in February, it is expected prices rose again in March by a .3%.

• 10:00 AM ET, the Consumer Confidence index has been sinking and is expected to sink further in May to 100.0 from April’s 101.3. If you recall, April was much weaker than expected, reflecting a sharp decline in job and income expectations.

• 1:00 PM ET, Thomas Barkin is the CEO of the Richmond Federal Reserve district. In light of the PCE inflation indicator late last week and statements by Fed Chair Powell the Friday before, insight into thinking from FOMC members could move market sentiment.

Wednesday 5/31

• 8:50 AM ET, Susan Collins is the CEO of the Richmond Federal Reserve District. Comments by Fed district CEOs may get heightened attention this week as the market looks for clues as to what monetary policy changes may occur from the FOMC meeting in two weeks.

• 9:45 AM ET, The Chicago PMI is expected to fall in May to 47.0 versus 48.6 in April which was the eighth straight month of sub-50 contraction. Above 50 indicates economic expansion, and below 50 reflects a receding economy.

• 10:00 AM ET, Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) have been declining. Forecasters put April’s openings at 9.35 million.

• 1:30 PM ET, Patrick Harker is the CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. He will be speaking.

• 2:00 PM ET, If volatility sets in for the last two hours of trading on Wednesday, it may be because the Fed’s Beige Book is released. This report outlines the economic conditions in each of the Federal Reserve Districts. The FOMC uses the contents as a basis for its decision-making.

• 3:00 PM ET, Farm Prices may not be the most awaited for inflation indicator, but it is important as it is a leading inflation indicator. Agricultural prices for April are expected to have risen by 1.3% month-over-month. These increases will work their way into the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Thursday 6/1

• 8:30 AM ET, Jobless claims for the May 27 week are expected to come in at 235,000 versus 229,000 in the May 20 week, which was lower than expected but followed 248,000 in the prior week.•

• 8:30 AM ET, Released will be the second estimate for first-quarter Nonfarm Productivity. It is expected to remain the same as the first estimate, at minus 2.7 percent.

• 10:00 AM ET, The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index has been contracting over the last six months. May’s consensus is 47.0 versus April’s 47.1.

• 11:00 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration’s weekly update on petroleum inventories in the US is expected to show a decline of 12.5 million barrels.

• 1:00 PM ET, Patrick Harker is the CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. He will be speaking.

• 4:30 PM ET, The Fed’s Balance Sheet report tells unveils if the Fed has been on track with monetary policy initiatives like quantitative Tightening (QT) and if the troubled bank outlets are getting more or less use. Obviously, this has been getting much more scrutiny by investors.

Friday 6/2

• 8:30 AM ET, The Employment Situation report is supposed to show a 180,000 rise is the call for nonfarm payroll growth in May versus 253,000 in April. Average hourly earnings in May are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month for a year-over-year rate of 4.4 percent; these would compare with 0.5 and 4.4 percent in April, which were higher than expected. May’s unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 3.5 percent versus April’s 3.4 percent, which was two-tenths lower than expected.

What Else

Look for a vote on the debt ceiling that is likely to pass both houses of Congress and be signed into law quickly this week.

Artificial intelligence, or AI, has been in the news at an escalating pace. While most agree it can make life better, there are also fears that if not governed, it can cause devastating problems. The White House is asking for input and comments before 5pm July 7. Get more information here.

On Tuesday May 30^th and Wednesday May 31^st, Tonix Pharmaceutical Holdings will be in South Florida presenting to investors as part of our Meet the Management Series. If you’d like to attend one of these roadshows, presented by Senior Management of Tonix, go here for more information.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources:

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/OSTP-Request-for-Information-National-Priorities-for-Artificial-Intelligence.pdf

Noble/Channelchek “Meet the Management” Roadshow Schedule

News From the Biotech Sector has become Increasingly Rewarding

Posted on May 26, 2023May 26, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

2023 May Be the Year the Biotech Sector Cures Itself of Malaise

A pivotal point for biotech stocks seems to have been reached. It’s almost mid-2023, and barely a week goes by without news driving a biotech company’s stock price upward to gain returns that one would expect to take years to achieve in a broad basket index position. The most recent news causing this price action is yet another clinical-stage therapeutic company. Shares of PDS Biotech are up 27% since yesterday and 41% month-to date. This week’s move is attributable the company reporting positive trial results.

PDS Biotechnology (PDSB) is a clinical-stage immunotherapy company with a developing pipeline of targeted immunotherapies for cancer and infectious disease.

The impetus for the price move was the announcement of interim data from a Phase 2 trial investigating its PDS0101 in combination with Merck’s KEYTRUDA®. The trials were in patients with unresectable, recurrent or metastatic human papillomavirus head and neck cancers.

The results were quite positive and will be featured in a poster presentation and in a head and neck cancer expert panel discussion at the 2023 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting being held June 2-6 in Chicago.

These are highlights of the results showing the interim data of the efficacy of PDS Bio’s PDS0101 in combination with KEYTRUDA®:

The estimated 12-month overall survival rate was 87.1%. Published results are 36-50% with approved ICIs used alone*.

Median progression-free survival was 10.4 months (95% CI 4.2, 15.3). Published results are median PFS of 2-3 months for approved ICIs when used as monotherapy in patients with similar PD-L1 levels*.
A disease control rate (disease stabilization or tumor shrinkage) of 70.6% (24/34)
Confirmed and unconfirmed objective response rate was 41.2% (14/34 patients), which is identical to the preliminary response rate data PDS Biotech previously reported at ASCO 2022 (7/17 patients). To date these responses have been confirmed in nine of the 34 patients (26.5%), including one complete response.
15/34 patients (44.1%) had stable disease.
9/34 patients (26.5%) had progressive disease.
4/48 (8.3%) of patients had a Grade 3 treatment-related adverse event (TRAE). No Grade 4 or higher TRAEs were observed.

A main driver of the stock market enthusiasm can be found in the safety and efficacy results in the interim data. “This data showed an estimated 12-month survival rate of 87% and a progression-free survival of 10.4 months, which is very encouraging given the poor prognosis these patients face,” stated Lauren V. Wood, M.D., PDS Biotech’s Chief Medical Officer and a co-author of the study. “Furthermore, we remain encouraged by the safety profile of PDS0101 in combination with KEYTRUDA®, with only 8% of patients experiencing a Grade 3 treatment-related adverse event without more serious Grade 4 or 5 events. We believe these data are encouraging for HNSCC patients and indicate that the addition of the HPV16-targeted immunotherapy PDS0101 to KEYTRUDA® should be further evaluated for its potential to enhance survival in HPV16-positive head and neck cancer patients.”

To understand the company PDS Biotechnology better, visit the research page on Channelchek, and also review this Channelchek video that shares key information about PDSB.

The Nature of Biotech Investing

Drug discovery and development is a long, uncertain path that often takes 10–15 years, with costs that could exceed $1–2 billion for any new drug ultimately approved for clinical use. Unlike unregulated products, it’s a significant achievement for a candidate to get as far as clinical trials. Attaining interim results showing high efficacy and tolerance is a very positive sign and one that will most often cause a large price jump. Negative results can have the opposite effect.

Events that cause small-cap biotech stocks to experience significant price jumps could include:

Positive clinical trial results: As with PDS Biotechnology, when a small-cap biotech company releases positive clinical trial results, it can generate significant investor interest and drive up the stock price.
FDA approvals: Taking is a step further, FDA approvals of drugs or medical devices can significantly boost a small-cap biotech company’s stock price, as it can open up a new revenue stream for the company.
Partnerships and collaborations: Partnerships and collaborations with larger companies can cause a small-cap biotech stock to rise as it indicates a level of validation for the company’s technology or products, and provide needed funding to bring research and development along the lengthy timeline.
Acquisition rumors or deals: When rumors or announcements of an acquisition by a larger company circulate, it can cause a small-cap biotech stock to rise as investors anticipate a potential buyout premium.
Analyst upgrades: If an influential analyst upgrades their rating on a small-cap biotech stock, it can increase investor interest and drive up the stock price.

Companies You May Want to Watch

There is data and information on well-over 200 small-cap biotech companies on Channelchek. Below is a select group that investors may want to follow.

Cocrystal (COCP): Cocrystal Pharma, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company discovering and developing novel antiviral therapeutics that target the replication process of influenza viruses, coronaviruses, hepatitis C viruses and noroviruses.

Axcella (AXLA): Axcella is a clinical-stage biotechnology company pioneering a new approach to treat complex diseases using endogenous metabolic modulator compositions. The company’s product candidates are comprised of EMMs and derivatives that are engineered in distinct combinations and ratios to reset multiple biological pathways, improve cellular energetics, and restore homeostasis.

Tonix Pharmaceutical (TNXP): Tonix is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, licensing, acquiring and developing therapeutics to treat and prevent human disease and alleviate suffering. Tonix’s portfolio is composed of central nervous system, rare disease, immunology and infectious disease product candidates.

Onconova Therapeutics (ONTX): Onconova Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing novel products for patients with cancer. The Company has proprietary targeted anti-cancer agents designed to disrupt specific cellular pathways that are important for cancer cell proliferation.

MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA): MAIA is a targeted therapy, immuno-oncology company focused on the development and commercialization of potential first-in-class drugs with novel mechanisms of action that are intended to meaningfully improve and extend the lives of cancer patients.

Ocugen (OCGN): Ocugen, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel gene and cell therapies and vaccines that improve health and offer hope for patients across the globe. The company impacts patient’s lives through innovation that forge new scientific paths.

PDS Biotechnology (PDSB): This was positive news for PDS Biotech, but there work isn’t finished and they have other immunotherapy products in their pipeline based on proprietary T cell-activating technology.

Take Away

As we approach the halfway point of 2023, biotech stocks that had traded sky-high during the pandemic era had been paid far less attention to since. But the tide appears to be turning as news such as that reported by PDSB, and partnerships and even acquisitions have been on the rise.

It’s an interesting sector that, for better or worse, is barely correlated with the rest of the stock market.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

PDS Biotechnology Press Release (May 25, 2023)

PDS Biotechnology Video

Young Investor’s Skills are Apparently Well-Suited for Today’s Markets

Posted on May 25, 2023May 25, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

The CFA Institute and FINRA Study on Gen Z Investors Would Put Smiles on Their Parent’s Face

Google’s AI chatbot Bard defines Generation Z, or Gen Z, as “the demographic cohort succeeding Millennials and preceding Generation Alpha.” Broadly, the media use the mid-to-late 1990s as starting birth years and the early 2010s as ending birth years as Gen Z. If one looks at the dates, most had internet in their homes on the day they arrived from the hospital after birth. Technology has advanced since then, and the generation that never knew life without is well-equipped to make it work for them.

Generation Z is considered more proactive about their money than their parents or their parents parents. A survey by the CFA Institute and FINRA Investor Education Foundation determined that 60% or 6 out of 10 of the Gen Z population owned at least some investments. Some 41% said they were investing in individual stocks, and 35% in mutual funds. The most popular investment? Crypto. It was reported that 20% are invested in cryptocurrency and/or non-fungible tokens.

The report clarified that these investors are not yet retirement focused, but instead growing assets to have enough money for traveling or saving for unexpected expenses.

Why Gen Z’s Interest

The FINRA/CFA Institute report gave multiple reasons why young people are getting into investing. These include the ability to learn about investing through social media and other online platforms, the existence of apps that let them invest small amounts, such as through fractional shares, as well as the underlying fear of missing out on a more passive way they could make money.

Top Challenges to Meeting Financial Goals

With many sources easily accessible to this connected generation, Generation Z literally have a world of information in their hand, some of it very good, and some of it is probably worthless or damaging. Social media and internet searches take up the top means of learning about investing for this generation. Still on the subject of learning, they are least likely to talk to a financial professional.

Sources of Information Gen Z Use to Learn About Investing

The FINRA/CFA study drilled down deeper to discover the most popular online sources used by Gen Z for investor information. The highest on the list is YouTube followed by internet searches. Lowest on this list is Facebook.

Portfolio Size and Nature

The median investor from this generation has an account worth $4,000. The women had smaller accounts averaging $3,000 versus Gen Z men, whose accounts averaged $5,000.

Investing began very early for some as 25% of Gen Z investors said they began investing before they turned 18. The report indicated that starting at a relatively young age is common in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. The technology of today allows investors to start small and trade incrementally, even fractionally. This along with curiosity and comfort with technology, is the driver to the first step.

The report was based on a survey of 2,872 investors and non-investors who were aged 18 to 25, as well as millennial and Generation X investors in the U.S., Canada, U.K., and China.

When first starting out, Gen Z most of these investors (44%) gravitated toward cryptocurrencies, according to the report. The median average they first began investing with is $1,000.

Take Away

The youngest adults are finding themselves motivated to invest, more so than any generation before. The top reason is it is easier for the generation to be involved in the markets. Many trade crypto, and own individual stocks. Video content as well as online searches are the primary sources of investment information.

As an aside, this article prompted me to look at the age demographics provided by Google Analytics for Channelchek. Channelchek provides investor information in both written and video formats. Out of the six age groups that Google tracks, 14% of our site traffic since the beginning of the year is attributable to the Gen Z age group.

Should you have any requests for content, or if you are well-versed in a topic that you think Channelchek readers may benefit from, click my name below to send an email, I’d enjoy speaking with you.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

CFA/FINRA Report (May 2023)

Bard, from Google AI Provided Minor Cross-reference Information

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Education_of_Generation_Z

Details of the United States Credit Watch and Downgrade Status

Posted on May 25, 2023May 25, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Fitch Has Placed the United States and Some of its Debt on Credit Watch

What does it mean that rating agency Fitch has put the US debt on credit watch?

According to Fitch Ratings, a rating service that is one of the top three Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Agencies (NRSRO), has placed the United States AAA Long-Term, Issuer Default Rating (IDR) on rating watch and at risk of a downgrade. The primary reason for the rating agency warning is the apparent standstill of negotiations related to the US borrowing limit along with the approaching day that the US may not be able to refinance the interest portion of approaching US Treasury Bills (T-Bills), US Treasury Notes (T-Notes), and US Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds).

Implications

When a top credit rating agency places a country’s debt on credit watch, it means that the agency is considering lowering that country’s credit rating if conditions remain unchanged or worsen. This would have a number of negative consequences for the country, and could negatively impact those that operate within its economy, this could include:

Higher interest rates on government borrowing
Higher rates on corporate debt priced off of US Treasuries
Higher mortgage rates spread to US Treasuries
A decline in the value of the country’s currency
Increased difficulty in attracting foreign investment

A downgrade of the US government credit rating below AAA would be a major event with far-reaching consequences above and beyond the immediate impacts bullet-pointed above.

Wording of the Fitch Ratings Warning

Rating agencies like Fitch, Moody’s, and S&P are private companies. Debt issuers pay to have their debt issues rated to provide investors with information and a framework of value. These rating agencies or NRSROs are somewhat akin to providers of equity research to stock market participants via company-sponsored research.

Some of the main categories listed by Fitch titled, KEY RATING DRIVERS, are “Debt Ceiling Brinkmanship”, “Debt Limit Reached”, “X-Date Approaching”, “Debt Default Rating Implication”, “Potential Post Default Ratings”, and “High and Rising Public Debt Burden”.

The concern with debt ceiling brinkmanship according to Fitch is the “increased political partisanship that is hindering reaching a resolution to raise or suspend the debt limit despite the fast-approaching x-date (when the U.S. Treasury exhausts its cash position and capacity for extraordinary measures without incurring new debt).”

Fitch’s warning indicates it still expects a resolution to the debt limit before the x-date. However, it believes risks have risen that the debt limit will not be raised or suspended before the x-date and that the government could begin to miss payments on some of its obligations.

Fitch pointed out that the US reached its $31.4 trillion debt ceiling on Jan. 19, 2023. While the US Treasury has taken what Janet Yellen called “extraordinary measures” she also expects the measures could be exhausted as early as June 1, 2023. The cash balance of the Treasury reached USD76.5 billion as of May 23, and sizeable payments are due June 1-2.

The x-date has been defined as the day the US can’t meet its obligations without borrowing above the current Congressional debt limit. Failure to reach a deal “to raise or suspend the debt limit by the x-date would be a negative signal of the broader governance and willingness of the U.S. to honor its obligations in a timely fashion,” Fitch warned. The rating agency indicated this “would be unlikely to be consistent with a ‘AAA’ rating”

Fitch also addressed the 14^th amendment discussions and other unconventional solutions, “avoiding default by non-conventional means such as minting a trillion-dollar coin or invoking the 14th amendment is unlikely to be consistent with a ‘AAA’ rating and could also be subject to legal challenges,” Fitch advised.

The debt default rating warning comes from basic understanding of the role of a rating agency. However, Fitch did offer an opinion on the likelihood. “We believe that failing to make full and timely payments on debt securities is less likely than reaching the x-date, and is a very low probability event.

If a default did occur, Fitch indicated it would be more than one level adjustment to some debt affected. Fitch’s sovereign rating criteria would lead it to downgrade the sovereign rating (IDR) to Restricted Default (RD). Actual affected securities would be downgraded to ‘D’. Additionally, other LT debt securities with payments due within 30 days could be expected to be downgraded to ‘CCC’, and ST T-Bills maturing within the following 30 days could be expected to be downgraded to ‘C’.

“Other debt securities with payments due beyond 30 days would likely be downgraded to the expected post-default rating of the IDR,” Fitch wrote.

The US has a high and rising public debt burden, according to the rating agency. It points out that government debt fell to 112.5% of GDP at year-end 2022 (compared to 36.1% for the ‘AAA’ median). It peaked during the pandemic at 122.3%. Fitch forecasts debt to increase to 117% by end-2024. Debt dynamics under the baseline Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assumptions project that the ratio of federal debt held by the public to GDP will approach 119% within a decade under the current policy setting, a rise of over 20 pp. Fitch also recognizes the added cost of financing, adding, “interest rates have risen significantly over the last year with the 10-year Treasury yield at close to 3.7% (compared to 2.8% a year ago).”

Take Away

The decision to put a country’s debt on credit watch is not made lightly. One company announcement such as this can have an impact felt across the globe. It’s important for them to get this right. NRSROs typically would only put a sovereign nation, especially the US, where its debt is often called “the risk free rate,” and the US dollar serves as fiat currency. Firch did this because they view it as responsible and in line with what securities analysts and the rating services they work for are expected to watch out for.

In the current case of the United States debt ratings, the main concern is the political gridlock in Washington, which has made it difficult to reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling. If the debt ceiling is not raised, the United States will eventually run out of money to pay its bills, which would trigger a default. Fitch would be embarrassed (and arguably irresponsible) if they maintained a AAA rating just one week before the US Treasury Secretary indicated the nation couldn’t roll its debt.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-places-united-states-aaa-on-rating-watch-negative-24-05-2023

Solid Evidence a Recession is Unlikely this Year

Posted on May 23, 2023May 23, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Reliable Data, Not Emotions, are Pointing to a Growing U.S. Economy

In roughly one month, we will be halfway through 2023. While many point to the Fed’s pace of tightening and the downward sloping yield curve, as a reason to run around like Chicken Little warning of a coming recession, a fresh read of the economic tea leaves tells a different story. Just today, May 23, the PMI Output Index (PMI) rose to its highest reading in over a year. Home sales figures were also reported to show that new homes in May sold at the highest rate in over a year. These are both reliable leading indicators that point to growth in both services and manufacturing.

U.S. Composite PMI Output Index

Business activity in the U.S. increased to a 13-month high in May due in large part to strong growth in the services sector. This is a reliable indication that economic expansion has growing momentum. Despite the negative talk of those that are concerned that the Fed has lifted interest rates closer to historical norms and that the yield curve is still inverted, in part due to Covid era Fed yield-curve-control, the numbers suggest less caution might be warranted.

S&P Global said on Tuesday (May 23) its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to a reading of 54.5 this month. It indicates the highest level since April 2022 and is up from a reading of 53.4 in April. A reading above 50 indicates growth, this is the fourth consecutive month it has been above 50. The consensus among economists was only 52.6.

Home Sales

One sector that is directly impacted by interest rates is real estate. However, new home sales rose in April, this is a clear sign that prospective buyers are making deals with builders.

New homes in April were sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 683,000, Its the highest rate since March 2022. The April data represents a 4.1% gain from March’s revised rate of 656,000,. The report was from the Census and Department of Housing and Urban Development and was reported Tuesday May 23. Economists had expected new home sales to decline to 670,000 from a March rate of 683,000. It was the largest month-over-month increase since December 2022.

Leading Indicators

PMI is forward-looking as it surveys purchasing managers’ expectations and intentions for the coming months. By capturing their sentiment on future orders, production plans, and hiring intentions, PMI offers insights into economic trends that have yet to be reflected in other after-the-fact indicators.

Home sales are considered a leading indicator because they can serve as a measure of other needs and broader economic trends. Home sales have a significant impact on related sectors, such as construction, home improvement, finance, and consumer spending. Changes in home sales can influence economic activity and indicate shifts in consumer confidence, employment levels, and overall economic health.

While many economic reports offer rear-view mirror data, these reports are true indicators of business behavior as it plans for future expectations, and consumer behavior as it is confident that it will have the resources available to purchase and outfit a new home.

The upbeat reports prompted the Atlanta Federal Reserve to raise its second-quarter gross domestic product estimate to a 2.9% annualized rate from a 2.6% pace. The economy grew at a 1.1% rate in the first quarter.

Take Away

Many economists are negative about the economic outlook later this year. Market participants have been positioning themselves with the notion that there may be a late year recession. Is the notion misguided? Recent data suggests there may be buying opportunities for those willing to go against the tide of pundits preaching recession.

No one has a crystal ball. In good markets and bad, there is no replacement for good research before you put on a position, and then for as long as the position remains in your portfolio.

Channelchek is a great resource for information to follow the companies not likely being reported in traditional outlets. Turn to this online free resource as you evaluate small and microcap stocks.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

World Economic Outlook

Barron’s (May 23, 2023)

Reuters (May 23, 2023)

We May Soon Know if Yellen’s “Extraordinary Measures” are Extraordinary Enough

Posted on May 22, 2023May 22, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

The Pace of the U.S. Treasury Burn Rate Toward a $0.00 Balance

The US Treasury Department is nearing its last ounce of blood as it has been bleeding operating funds. All parties know that the debt ceiling has to be raised if the country is to avoid a financial catastrophe. Still, an impasse on debt ceiling negotiations continues. While the House of Representatives has passed a borrowing cap plan, it is not expected that the Senate would agree on the spending reductions, and President Biden made clear he would not sign it.

The markets, of course, have been paying attention, but for the most part, they have chosen to ignore the drama. Anyone that has been involved in the markets for a few years knows that in the past, there have been stop-gap measures or 11^th hour decisions that have avoided a US debt default.

It is Getting Close

The US Treasury reported last Thursday that it had $57.3 billion in cash on hand. As with any ongoing entity, each week, it receives revenue and pays expenses. So the daily balance runoff fluctuates by different amounts each day. A snapshot is reported each Thursday along with other US financial data. The current pace, while not a precise rate to gauge the net burn rate, is useful.

The operating balance used to pay our bills as a nation has declined from $238.5 billion at the start of May, when tax collections helped boost balances. That’s a $181.2 billion decline over 18 days, or $10 billion per day. If the pace holds, the United States balance sheet reaches zero before the June 1 date previously estimated by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

How are Officials Reacting?

The US reached its Congressionally imposed borrowing cap in January. Since then, there has been a cutting back on spending, as had been announced in January by Janet Yellen. The Treasury has since been operating under an “Extraordinary Measures” plan, reducing less than critical spending to pay obligations that can not be ignored without great consequence. This bandaid approach will go on and, at this point, can only be “fixed” if the debt ceiling is raised once again by Congress.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been clear in warning lawmakers that the Treasury’s ability to avoid default could end as soon as June 1. The nation has to increase its ability to legally borrow to make its payments while its obligations exceed its revenue.

Averting a June Crisis Without Congress

While most US citizens are aware of the mid-April individual tax date, corporate tax dates are quarterly. The next time most corporations pay their estimated taxes is June 15^th. If Secretary Yellen can squeeze the Treasury balances until June 15^th, she will no longer be driving on fumes – instead, she will have added a little more gas, not enough to get her to the next corporate tax date.

Another thought depends on one’s interpretation of the 14^th Amendment. This amendment of the US Constitution contains several provisions, one of which is Section 4. This section states that “the validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law… shall not be questioned.” While the exact interpretation of this provision is a matter of legal debate, it has been suggested that it could potentially provide a legal basis for the government to continue meeting its financial obligations, even if the debt ceiling is reached.

Some argue that the 14th Amendment could empower the President to bypass the debt ceiling and ensure that the government continues to pay its debts on time, based on the principle that the United States must honor its financial obligations.

Stalled Talks

Although the date of $zero balance is not far off if the President and Senate doesn’t agree to the House plan, or if the House is inflexible, negotiations have moved in fits and starts with Congressional leaders meeting on and off with each other and with the Executive branch.

If the nation does default, it will unleash global economic and financial upheaval. The full consequences are not known since it’s never happened before. Those likely to see funds come to a crawl or be turned off are:

Interest on the debt: While the debt itself would continue to be serviced, a stringent austerity plan could potentially result in reduced payments towards interest on the national debt.
Government programs and agencies: Funding for discretionary programs, such as infrastructure projects, education initiatives, environmental programs, or research grants, could be reduced or eliminated.

Social welfare programs: Payments for social welfare programs, such as unemployment benefits, food assistance, housing subsidies, or healthcare subsidies, may be reduced or scaled back.

Defense spending: Military expenditures and defense contracts may face cuts, impacting payments to defense contractors and the procurement of military equipment and services.

Government salaries and benefits: Austerity measures could involve salary freezes, reductions, or furloughs for government employees, including civil servants, military personnel, or elected officials.

Infrastructure projects: Funding for infrastructure development and maintenance, including transportation systems, highways, bridges, and public facilities, may face reductions or delays.

Grants to states and local governments: Payments to states and local governments for various programs, such as education, healthcare, or community development, could be reduced.

The above are not set in stone, it’s important to note that the specific impacts of an austerity plan would depend on the policies and priorities set by the government, and different austerity measures are also a matter of negotiation.

While Yellen, the Congressional Budget Office, and multiple other forecasters think the $Zero date is likely during the first two weeks of June, it’s possible that the Treasury will have enough funds to carry it through the middle of the month, which would add more time.

However, as it looks now, the US Government is running on fumes; in the past, it has not allowed itself to completely run out of gas. If today’s situation follows past history, the markets will get scared a few more times before the US leaders agree and the country is back to business as usual.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/daily-treasury-statement/operating-cash-balance

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1483

The Week Ahead – FOMC Minutes, M2, and Early Close

Posted on May 22, 2023May 22, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

The Market Hurdles Before the Holiday

The FOMC minutes on Wednesday detailing the debate at the Federal Reserve’s May 2-3 meeting could be an eye-opener for investors. Expectations for many had been that the Fed would pause tightening. The Fed has publicly insisted that the interest rate moves are data dependent and there isn’t a scheduled plan extending through the rest of the year. If the minutes suggest pausing, markets shouldn’t react severely, if instead, the minutes suggest the Fed is panicking at the pace of the economy and persistence of inflation, the stock market may itself pause the recent bullish moves. Inflation data in the form of the PCE report Friday is not expected to show much improvement.

Friday is one of the bigger days for economic reports as Consumer Sentiment is released in the morning. On Friday afternoon, SIFMA recommends an early close before the Memorial Day weekend.

Monday 5/22

8:30 AM ET, James Bullard will be speaking. Bullard is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Bullard is an FOMC member and has been very vocal in his support for higher interest rates.
10:50 AM ET, Thoms Barkin will be speaking. Barkin is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. He is a member of the FOMC Committee.
11:05 AM ET, Mary Daly will be speaking. Daly is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. She is a member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Tuesday 5/23

9:00 AM ET, Lorie Logan, CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas will be speaking. She represents her district on the FOMC.
9:45 AM ET, The Purchasing Managers Report (PMI) has been signaling higher output for the last three releases. A number above 50 indicates an increase; the consensus for May is 52.6 versus April’s 55.9.
10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales, after a decent jump to a 683,000 annualized rate in March, new home sales in April are expected to have declined to 670,000.
1:00 PM ET, Money Supply numbers will be released. M2 is expected to have declined by 257.3 billion to a level of $20,818 billion.

Wednesday 5/24

10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be providing its scheduled weekly information on petr
oleum inventories, whether produced in the US or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.
2:00 PM ET, The Minutes of the FOMC meeting held on May2-3 will be released. The minutes detail the issues, discussions, and positions among policymakers; the Federal Open Market Committee issues minutes of its latest meeting three weeks after the meeting.

Thursday 5/25

8:30 AM ET, Jobless claims for the week May 20, are expected to rise 6,000 to 248,000 following a 22,000 swing lower to 242,000 in the prior week.
8:30 AM ET, Corporate Profits are pulled from the national income and product accounts (NIPA) and are presented in different forms.
10:00 AM ET, Pending Home Sales data from April are expected to have risen 1.1%.
10:30 AM ET, Susan Collins is the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Friday 5/26

8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders are expected to have fallen 1.1% in April following March’s 3.2% rise. Ex-transportation orders are seen down 0.1 percent.

8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays. Personal Income is expected to have increased 0.4% in April with consumption expenditures also expected to increase 0.4%. These would compare with March’s 0.3 percent for income and no change for consumption.

8:30 AM ET, Retail Inventories are expected to have risen by .73%.

8:30 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories are expected to have been flat in April risen by.

8:30 AM ET, International Trade numbers are expected to show the US goods deficit is expected to widen marginally to $85.6 billion in May after narrowing by $6.5 billion in April to $85.5 billion.

10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment is expected to end May at 58.0, nearly 6 points below April but shigher by .30% from May’s mid-month 57.7 flash.International Trade numbers are expected to show the US goods deficit is expected to widen marginally to $85.6 billion in May after narrowing by $6.5 billion in April to $85.5 billion.

2:00 PM ET, SIFMA Recommends an Early Market Close on May 26 (2PM) and a Full Market Close on May 29 in the US in Observance of the Memorial Day Holiday.

What Else

Investment roadshows on company’s you own or have an interest in can lead to insights you’d never get anyplace else.

A stock that has the distinction of being Michael Burry’s longest held position (a long position) is a company named GEO Group (GEO).

On May 23^rd and May 24^th you may be able to attend a roadshow in South Florida presented by Senior Management of Geo Group.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources:

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

What Else

Investment roadshows on company’s you own or have an interest in can lead to insights you’d never get anyplace else.

A stock that has the distinction of being Michael Burry’s longest held position (a long position) is a company named GEO Group (GEO).

On May 23^rd and May 24^th you may be able to attend a roadshow in South Florida presented by Senior Management of Geo Group.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources:

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

Biotech M&A is Finally Rewarding Patient Investors

Posted on May 19, 2023May 19, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

The Acceleration of Biotech Acquisitions, Why it Should Continue

The pace of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the biotech sector has accelerated in 2023 compared to 2022 and 2021. The factors driving this increase are numerous, and there is increasing urgency on both sides, the acquirers and acquirees to find a fit. This is playing out with deal value up significantly in 2023, with noticeable acceleration as the year has progressed. During the first quarter, investors in at least eight biotech companies found themselves in enviable positions. Below is a recap of what has already happened and the perceived trend. If it continues, it could lead to 2023 seeing far more biotech deals than the previous two.

According to data from William Blair’s quarterly biopharma review, the total deal volume in the sector was elevated, although far below record highs. Total M&A value for the first quarter was $52 billion versus $88 billion for all of 2022, and $77 billion in 2021. The report shows the average deal was $630 million (versus $367 million in 2022). The upfront cash and equity has doubled from the prior year at $508 million (versus $249 million in 2022).

Later stage companies seem to be what pharmaceutical firms have the most appetite for. The phase of development of the companies most sought was Phase II or later with 100% or all of the public acquisitions in this stage. Five of the eight were in the commercial stage.

Source: The Quarterly Rx: Q1 2023 U.S. Biopharma Recap (William Blair)

The details above are of the eight public companies that merged or were acquired during the first quarter. However, just this week alone, there have been three more biotech acquisitions announced:

On May 16, 2023, Merck & Co. announced that it would acquire Acceleron Pharma for $11.5 billion. Acceleron is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, the acquisition will give Merck access to Acceleron’s lead drug candidate, luspatercept, which is currently in Phase 3 clinical trials for the treatment of anemia associated with chronic kidney disease.
On May 17, 2023, Gilead Sciences announced that it would acquire Immunomedics for $21 billion. Immunomedics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company the acquisition will give Gilead access to Immunomedics’ lead drug candidate, Trodelvy, which is currently in Phase 3 clinical trials for the treatment of triple-negative breast cancer.
On May 18, 2023, AstraZeneca announced that it would acquire Daiichi Sankyo’s oncology business for $6.9 billion. Daiichi Sankyo’s oncology business includes a portfolio of marketed and late-stage cancer drugs. The acquisition will give AstraZeneca a broader portfolio of cancer drugs and will help the company to expand its presence in the oncology market.

What is Driving the Acceleration?

There are a number of “not-so-secret” factors that are helping the acceleration of M&A activity in the biotech sector. One factor is the increasing cost of product development. The average cost of developing a new drug has increased from $1 billion to $2.6 billion in the past decade. This has made it increasingly difficult for small and mid-sized biotech companies to develop viable candidates independent of big-pharma’s help. As a result, small companies are increasingly looking to merge, partner or be acquired by larger companies with deeper pockets.

Another factor driving the acceleration of M&A activity in the biotech sector is the increasing focus on innovation. Large pharmaceutical companies don’t have the talent that exists in the universe of small biotech companies. So they are increasingly looking to acquire companies with innovative technologies. These innovations can help them provide new drugs that can compete with the blockbuster drugs coming off patent in the next few years.

Finally, the acceleration of M&A activity in the biotech sector is also being driven by the increasing consolidation of the industry. In recent years, a number of large pharmaceutical companies have merged with or acquired each other. This has led to a smaller number of bigger companies that are now dominant in the industry. These companies are increasingly looking to acquire smaller companies in order to expand their product portfolios and overall reach.

Take Away

While deals in many industries, both public and private, have decelerated to a crawl, the cash-rich pharmaceutical industry giants are tactically looking to build their portfolios of next-generation treatments. And many biotech companies are in need of a lifeline to get their pipeline products the research dollars they deserve. This dynamic has accelerated public and private deals in the industry in 2023.

The acceleration of M&A activity in the biotech sector is a trend that is not expected to end soon. This is because the factors that are driving deals are likely to remain in place. Investors looking to explore smaller biotech companies may want to keep in mind the nuances of the average company attributes that found deals in the first quarter. Top-tier research on a number of smaller companies, provided by the sectors equity analysts at Noble Capital Markets can be found here. Company information and data on many other biotech and life sciences companies can be discovered by going to this link.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

file:///C:/Users/prese/Downloads/WilliamBlair-Biopharma-Quarterly-Review-Q1-2023.pdf

https://community.ionanalytics.com/ma-highlights-1q23?account_created=1

https://dkf1ato8y5dsg.cloudfront.net/uploads/79/598/mahighlights1q23-final.pdf

The Russell Reconstitution Preliminary List

Posted on May 18, 2023May 18, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

The New Russell Indexes Unconfirmed Versions – How Investors Use Them

The preliminary list of stocks to be included in the Russell Reconstitution, and also which Russell Index, is a huge day for many stock investors and the impacted companies as well. This year, it occurs on Friday, May 19. The list, although preliminary and subject to refinements each Friday through June, includes the stocks that are believed to meet the requirements based on valuations taken on April 28. This is the first official file from the popular index provider, in addition to informing the investor public what to expect when the indexes are reconstituted. The reconstitution can be expected to impact prices as index fund managers readjust holdings. The event also, for many, redefines market-cap levels that are considered small-cap, mid-cap, and large-cap.

Background

The Russell Reconstitution is an annual event that reconfigures the membership of the Russell indexes by defining the top 3000 stocks based on market-cap (Russell 3000), then the top 1000 stocks (Russell 1000), and reclassifying the smaller 2000 stocks to form the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index. These serve as a benchmark for many institutional investors, as the indexes reflect the performance of the U.S. equity market across different market-cap classifications. The reconstitution process adds, removes, and weights stocks to ensure the indexes accurately represent the market.

The Preliminary List which will be published after the market closes on May 19, 2023, is a crucial step in the market cap reclassification process. It provides market participants with an initial glimpse into potential additions and deletions from the indexes. The stocks listed on this preliminary roster may experience increased attention from investors, as it hints at potential buying or selling pressure once the final reconstitution is completed.

The newly reconstituted indexes become live after the market close on June 23.

Implications for Investors

The release of the Russell Preliminary List on May 19 could provide opportunities for investors, including:

Enhanced Market Visibility – Companies listed on the Preliminary List may experience increased trading volumes and heightened market popularity, or even scrutiny, as investors evaluate their potential inclusion in the Russell indexes.

Potential Price Movements – Stocks slated for addition or deletion from the indexes can experience price volatility as market participants adjust their positions to align with the anticipated reconstitution changes.

Portfolio Adjustments – Active managers who track the Russell indexes may need to realign their portfolios to reflect the new index constituents, potentially triggering buying or selling activity in affected stocks.

Investor Considerations

Stock market participants should consider the following factors when analyzing the Preliminary List and its potential impact:

Final Reconstitution – The Preliminary List is subject to changes in the final reconstitution, which is typically announced in late June. Investors should monitor subsequent updates to confirm the actual index membership changes. These updates may occur as the result of faulty data or dramatic changes to the company such as a merger since the April 28 market cap snapshot.

Fundamental Analysis – As always, the fundamentals and financial health of the companies should be among the most important factors for non-index investors to consider. In the past, potential additions often presented attractive investment opportunities, while potential deletions may mean the stock gets less attention from investors.

Take Away

The release of the Preliminary List on May 19, 2023, marks a significant milestone in the Russell Reconstitution process. Investors should pay close attention to the stocks listed, as they may experience increased market visibility and potential price movements. However, it is important to remember that the Preliminary List is subject to changes. Thorough fundamental analysis, including earnings, potential growth, and liquidity assessment, is prudent for most stock investments. For information to evaluate small-cap names, look to Channelchek as a source of data on over 6,000 small cap companies.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://research.ftserussell.com/products/downloads/FTSE_FAQ_Document_Russell_US_Equity_2023.pdf

Is Your Bank Prepared for a US Debt Default?

Posted on May 17, 2023May 18, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

War Rooms and Bailouts: How Banks and the Fed are Preparing for a US Default – and the Chaos Expected to Follow

When you are the CEO responsible for a bank and all the related depositors and investors, you don’t take an “it’ll never happen” approach to the possibility of a U.S. debt default. The odds are it won’t happen, but if it does, being unprepared would be devastating. Banks of all sizes are getting their doomsday plans in place, and other industries are as well, but big banks, on many fronts would be most directly impacted. The following is an informative article on how banks are preparing. It’s authored by John W. Diamond the Director of the Center for Public Finance at the Baker Institute, Rice University, and republished with permission from The Conversation. – Paul Hoffman, Managing Editor, Channelchek

Convening war rooms, planning speedy bailouts and raising house-on-fire alarm bells: Those are a few of the ways the biggest banks and financial regulators are preparing for a potential default on U.S. debt.

“You hope it doesn’t happen, but hope is not a strategy – so you prepare for it,” Brian Moynihan, CEO of Bank of America, the nation’s second-biggest lender, said in a television interview.

The doomsday planning is a reaction to a lack of progress in talks between President Joe Biden and House Republicans over raising the US$31.4 trillion debt ceiling – another round of negotiations took place on May 16, 2023. Without an increase in the debt limit, the U.S. can’t borrow more money to cover its bills – all of which have already been agreed to by Congress – and in practical terms that means a default.

What happens if a default occurs is an open question, but economists – including me – generally expect financial chaos as access to credit dries up and borrowing costs rise quickly for companies and consumers. A severe and prolonged global economic recession would be all but guaranteed, and the reputation of the U.S. and the dollar as beacons of stability and safety would be further tarnished.

But how do you prepare for an event that many expect would trigger the worst global recession since the 1930s?

Preparing for Panic

Jamie Dimon, who runs JPMorgan Chase, the biggest U.S. bank, told Bloomberg he’s been convening a weekly war room to discuss a potential default and how the bank should respond. The meetings are likely to become more frequent as June 1 – the date on which the U.S. might run out of cash – nears.

Dimon described the wide range of economic and financial effects that the group must consider such as the impact on “contracts, collateral, clearing houses, clients” – basically every corner of the financial system – at home and abroad.

“I don’t think it’s going to happen — because it gets catastrophic, and the closer you get to it, you will have panic,” he said.

That’s when rational decision-making gives way to fear and irrationality. Markets overtaken by these emotions are chaotic and leave lasting economic scars.

Banks haven’t revealed many of the details of how they are responding, but we can glean some clues from how they’ve reacted to past crises, such as the financial crisis in 2008 or the debt ceiling showdowns of 2011 and 2013.

One important way banks can prepare is by reducing exposure to Treasury securities – some or all of which could be considered to be in default once the U.S. exhausts its ability to pay all of its bill. All U.S. debts are referred to as Treasury bills or bonds.

The value of Treasurys is likely to plunge in the case of a default, which could weaken bank balance sheets even more. The recent bank crisis, in fact, was prompted primarily by a drop in the market value of Treasurys due to the sharp rise in interest rates over the past year. And a default would only make that problem worse, with close to 190 banks at risk of failure as of March 2023.

Another strategy banks can use to hedge their exposure to a sell-off in Treasurys is to buy credit default swaps, financial instruments that allow an investor to offset credit risk. Data suggests this is already happening, as the cost to protect U.S. government debt from default is higher than that of Brazil, Greece and Mexico, all of which have defaulted multiple times and have much lower credit ratings.

But buying credit default swaps at ever-higher prices limits a third key preventive measure for banks: keeping their cash balances as high as possible so they’re able and ready to deal with whatever happens in a default.

Keeping the Financial Plumbing Working

Financial industry groups and financial regulators have also gamed out a potential default with an eye toward keeping the financial system running as best they can.

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, for example, has been updating its playbook to dictate how players in the Treasurys market will communicate in case of a default.

And the Federal Reserve, which is broadly responsible for ensuring financial stability, has been pondering a U.S. default for over a decade. One such instance came in 2013, when Republicans demanded the elimination of the Affordable Care Act in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Ultimately, Republicans capitulated and raised the limit one day before the U.S. was expected to run out of cash.

One of the biggest concerns Fed officials had at the time, according to a meeting transcript recently made public, is that the U.S. Treasury would no longer be able to access financial markets to “roll over” maturing debt. While hitting the current ceiling prevents the U.S. from issuing new debt that exceeds $31.4 trillion, the government still has to roll existing debt into new debt as it comes due. On May 15, 2023, for example, the government issued just under $100 billion in notes and bonds to replace maturing debt and raise cash.

The risk is that there would be too few buyers at one of the government’s daily debt auctions – at which investors from around the world bid to buy Treasury bills and bonds. If that happens, the government would have to use its cash on hand to pay back investors who hold maturing debt.

That would further reduce the amount of cash available for Social Security payments, federal employees wages and countless other items the government spent over $6 trillion on in 2022. This would be nothing short of apocalyptic if the Fed could not save the day.

To mitigate that risk, the Fed said it could immediately step in as a buyer of last resort for Treasurys, quickly lower its lending rates and provide whatever funding is needed in an attempt to prevent financial contagion and collapse. The Fed is likely having the same conversations and preparing similar actions today.

A Self-Imposed Catastrophe

Ultimately, I hope that Congress does what it has done in every previous debt ceiling scare: raise the limit.

These contentious debates over lifting it have become too commonplace, even as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle express concerns about the growing federal debt and the need to rein in government spending. Even when these debates result in some bipartisan effort to rein in spending, as they did in 2011, history shows they fail, as energy analyst Autumn Engebretson and I recently explained in a review of that episode.

That’s why one of the most important ways banks are preparing for such an outcome is by speaking out about the serious damage not raising the ceiling is likely to inflict on not only their companies but everyone else, too. This increases the pressure on political leaders to reach a deal.

Going back to my original question, how do you prepare for such a self-imposed catastrophe? The answer is, no one should have to.