Category: Leisure

Guess the Odds that the NCAA Games Will Attract More Gambling in 2023

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Fictures (Flickr)

As March Madness Looms, Growth in Legalized Sports Betting May Pose a Threat to College Athletes

March Madness began on March 14, 2023, it’s a sure bet that millions of Americans will be making wagers on the annual college basketball tournament.

The American Gaming Association estimates that in 2022, 45 million people – or more than 17% of American adults – planned to wager US$3.1 billion on the NCAA tournament. That makes it one of the nation’s most popular sports betting events, alongside contests such as the Kentucky Derby and the Super Bowl. By at least one estimate, March Madness is the most popular betting target of all.

While people have been betting on March Madness for years, one difference now is that betting on college sports is legal in many states. This is largely due to a 2018 Supreme Court ruling that cleared the way for each state to decide whether to permit people to gamble on sporting events. Prior to the ruling, legal sports betting was only allowed in Nevada.

Since the ruling, sports betting has grown dramatically. Currently, 36 states allow some form of legalized sports betting. And now, Georgia, Maine and Kentucky are proposing legislation to make sports betting legal.

About two weeks after sports betting became legal in Ohio on Jan. 1, 2023, someone, disappointed by an unexpected loss of the University of Dayton men’s basketball team to Virginia Commonwealth University, made threats and left disparaging messages against Dayton athletes and the coaching staff.

The Ohio case is by no means isolated. In 2019, a Babson College student who was a “prolific sports gambler” was sentenced to 18 months in prison for sending death threats to at least 45 professional and collegiate athletes in 2017.

Faculty members of Miami University’s Institute for Responsible Gaming, Lottery, and Sports are concerned that the increasing prevalence of sports betting could potentially lead to more such incidents, putting more athletes in danger of threats from disgruntled gamblers who blame them for their gambling losses.

The anticipated growth in sports gambling is quite sizable. Analysts estimate the market in the U.S. may reach over US$167 billion by 2029.

Gambling Makes Inroads into Colleges

Concerns over college athletes being targeted by upset gamblers are not new. Players and sports organizations have expressed worry that expanded gambling could lead to harassment and compromise their safety. Such concerns led the nation’s major sports organizations – MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL and NCAA – to sue New Jersey in 2012 over a plan to initiate legal sports betting in that state. They argued that sports betting would make the public think that games were being thrown. Ultimately, the Supreme Court ruled that it was up to states to decide if they wanted to permit legal gambling.

Sports betting has also made inroads into America’s college campuses. Some universities, such as Louisiana State University and Michigan State University, have signed multimillion-dollar deals with casinos or gaming companies to promote gambling on campus.

Athletic conferences are also cashing in on the data related to these games and events. For instance, the Mid-Atlantic Conference signed a lucrative five-year deal in 2022 to provide real-time statistical event data to gambling companies, which then leverage the data to create real-time wager opportunities during sporting events.

As sports betting comes to colleges and universities, it means the schools will inevitably have to deal with some of the negative aspects of gambling. This potentially includes more than just gambling addiction. It could also involve the potential for student-athletes and coaches to become targets of threats, intimidation or bribes to influence the outcome of events.

The risk for addiction on campus is real. According to the National Council on Problem Gambling, over 2 million adults in the U.S. have a “serious” gambling problem, and another 4 million to 6 million may have mild to moderate problems. One report estimates that 6% of college students have a serious gambling problem.

What Can be Done?

Two faculty fellows at Miami University’s Institute for Responsible Gaming, Lottery, and Sport – former Ohio State Senator William Coley and Sharon Custer – recommend that regulators and policymakers work with colleges and universities to reduce the potential harm from the growth in legal gaming. Specifically, they recommend that each state regulatory authority:

  • Develop plans to coordinate between different governmental agencies to ensure that individuals found guilty of violations are sanctioned in other jurisdictions.
  • Dedicate some of the revenue from gaming to develop educational materials and support services for athletes and those around them.
  • Create anonymous tip lines to report threats, intimidation or influence, and fund an independent entity to respond to these reports.
  • Assess and protect athlete privacy. For instance, schools might decline to publish contact information for student-athletes and coaches in public directories.
  • Train athletes and those around them on basic privacy management. For instance, schools might advise athletes to not post on public social media outlets, especially if the post gives away their physical location.

The NCAA or athletic conferences could lead the development of resources, policies and sanctions that serve to educate, protect and support student-athletes and others around them who work at the schools for which they play. This will require significant investment to be comprehensive and effective.

This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of, Jason W. Osborne, Professor of Statistics, Institute for Responsible Gaming, Lottery, and Sport, Miami University.

Grab Your Popcorn, AMC ‘APE’ Conversion Gets Shareholder Vote

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: CNBC (YouTube)

Will Adam Aron CEO of AMC Win the Long Awaited Battle?

Management of AMC Entertainment Holdings ($AMC) is holding the long-awaited special meeting at noon Eastern time, Tuesday, March 14. At this meeting, shareholders will vote the peculiar $APE shares that were paid out as a dividend to shareholders. The dividend shares that were announced with the message “Today we Pounce” from the CEO Adam Aron created quite a stir – they seemed to have been designed to root out fraudulent shares and challenge any naked shorts of the AMC common shares.

The shareholders’ opportunity is a decision of whether or not to increase the firm’s stock authorization and convert AMC Preferred Equity Units (ticker: APE) into AMC common shares ($AMC). It will also vote on a 10-for-1 reverse stock split that would only take place if the APE measure passes.

AMC management won an endorsement from the proxy firm Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) for the reverse stock split and preferred stock conversion. Institutional Shareholder Services is a market intelligence and influence proxy voting firm, its endorsement increases the odds of management having their wish.

If approved, it would represent an important career win for AMC’s Aron, who has become a superhero of sorts to the meme stock investors that helped the firm through the pandemic. He has shown himself to be able to stay one step ahead of those that would profit if AMC stock falters. Some stockholders supporting the measure take this as a fight between weak and strong and good and evil where prevailing is the only option.

 In 2020 AMC Theatres lost $4.6 billion in sales due to Covid-related lockdowns and low attendance. Some powerful investors had shorted shares, many small investors grouped together and purchased the stock in droves, this created unexpected problems for the institutional short sellers that had large trades betting against AMC’s survival.

These investors caused the stock price to increase which allowed AMC to raise cash and survive and thrive.

The APE units, which represent one hundredth of a preferred share, have the same voting power of common shares.

Not all AMC shareholders are as supportive. Some are suing the company, arguing the APE sales decimated the voting power of common shareholders who might oppose increasing the firm’s share authorization.

Aron said during the fourth-quarter earnings call that if the vote falls short, the company could be forced to sell more APE shares at lower prices than a combined AMC share. On the same call he credited selling stock with helping the firm survive the lockdowns.

“We wouldn’t be blocked from raising capital, but we’d be raising capital on much less attractive terms,” Aron said. “It would cost more dilution to the stock that is entirely 100% preventable if a majority of our shareholders vote yes.”

The company has provided this link for livestreaming the March 14 meeting.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1411579/000110465922092397/tm2223780d1_ex99-1.htm

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/amc-theatres-4-6-billion-loss-covid-1234927642/

https://investor.amctheatres.com/corporate-overview/default.aspx

https://www.barrons.com/articles/amc-ape-stock-price-shareholder-meeting-f412434d

The Fed Still Has a Long Way to Go To Reel in Wage Inflation

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Andrew Hudson (Flickr)

Employers Added 263,000 Jobs in November, How this Impacts Future Fed Decisions

There were many more jobs created and filled in the U.S. during November than expected. This may, on the surface, seem like a good thing for the economy, markets, and job seekers. But any expectation that the Fed is past the tipping point and is winning in the battle against conditions that increase prices will have to be curbed for a while.

The number of new hires points to unmet demand in filling positions, and the increase in wages directly adds to the cost of goods sold. Unmet high labor demand is inflationary and part of why the Fed is clear that it is not done.

Fed Chair Powell spoke last Wednesday in a lengthy address outlining the challenges that face the Fed and the avenues it is most likely to take. There is nothing in the strong November jobs report that alters what Powell has said. In fact, it may underscore the resiliency of the economy that the Fed is looking to temper. If you weren’t of the belief that the Fed would push Fed Funds beyond 5%, there is evidence that the Fed may need three 0.50% increases or more before it steps back.

Background

The Fed Chair and other Fed officials have reiterated in recent days that they are likely to lift rates and hold them at levels high enough to slow economic activity and hiring to bring inflation down from 40-year highs.

The just-released employment report for November was expected to come in far below the level reported. Digging even deeper into the numbers, it showed continued rampant hiring and elevated wage growth. The Fed had been hoping to keep a wage-price spiral at bay and get ahead of the supply-demand issues pushing wages and prices up.  

The November Unemployment Report

The headline number showed that employers added 263,000 jobs in November while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. But the revised wage data in Friday’s release could concern Fed officials because it points to an acceleration in pay gains in recent months. For the three months that ended in November, average hourly earnings rose at a 5.8% annualized rate. This is a surprising increase from an initially reported 3.9% annualized rate for the three months that ended in October. Economists had expected the U.S. economy had gained 200,000 jobs last month.

At the same time, senior Fed officials have made sure it is no surprise if they lessen the size of rate increases in coming meetings. The next FOMC is the Dec. 13-14 meeting; the Fed is expected to move 0.50% rather than another 0.75%.

Most major stock market indices have traded lower, taking a bearish tone from the report and signs the Fed still is a little behind in its effort to squelch inflation-feeding activity.

Of interest to investors, the sectors with the most job gains were the leisure and hospitality and healthcare industries, both of which had been hard hit during the pandemic, and in government, where employment levels are still 2% below where they stood in February 2020.

Take Away

“To be clear, strong wage growth is a good thing,” Powell said this week. “But for wage growth to be sustainable, it needs to be consistent with 2% inflation.”

The accelerated pace of job growth in November, coupled with upwardly revised October statistics, makes clear to the markets the persistent challenge facing the Federal Reserve. The central bank has repeated that it needs to see some slack in the labor market in order for inflation to fall. This could come from reduced labor demand or increased labor supply, or both.

Choices Presented to Voters on Ballots are Presented to Investors as Opportunities

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Joe Shlabotnik (Flickr)

The Consequences of this Year’s Voting Should Create Opportunity for Investors

Once inconceivable in most voting districts throughout the U.S., ballots across the country this year will ask voters to decide on gambling measures, drug laws, and extra taxes based on defined demographics. While this is of interest to investors as it shows how trends are forming or continuing and can point to more potential for growth. Of the 130 ballot measures being decided upon on Tuesday, many will alter spending patterns and bolster industries.

What’s Being Decided Upon

Each year a number of states, including Maryland and Arkansas, are asking voters to decide upon legalizing recreational marijuana. Fully five states could move toward ending the use of involuntary prison labor. Nebraska and Nevada are asking voters if they should increase the minimum wage statewide. Gambling, firearms, and immigration are also the subject of state-level referendums.

A proposition in California would legalize online sports betting in that large potential market. Gaming companies, including DraftKings (DKNG) and FanDuel (DUEL) have poured nearly $160 million into the measure. It is not expected to pass, if it does, the news may cause a rally in these and other online gambling companies. Over $375 million has been spent by supporters and those against this measure.

Also being decided by California’s voters is a proposition that would raise taxes on personal incomes of $2 million or more. The revenue would be set aside to fund the state’s electric-vehicle production and help prevent wildfires. This is a very contentious measure that pit many from the same political party against each other.

In general environmental groups and companies perceived to benefit from a quicker evolving EV infrastructure support the “yes” campaign. Governor Newsom, and the California Teachers Association, a powerful state union, have joined business groups to oppose the measure, saying it would benefit a select number of large corporations as they transition to electric vehicles.

Recreational weed in Maryland? The pollsters seem to think it stands a good chance of passing. There are four other states (Arkansas, Missouri, North Dakota and South Dakota) where recreational cannabis is also on the ballot, those outcomes won’t be known until after the votes are counted.

To date, 19 states and the District of Columbia have legalized the adult recreational use of marijuana. Colorado could become the second state behind Oregon to legalize the personal use of psilocybin, the active ingredient in psychedelic mushrooms and other plant-based hallucinogens.

Massachusetts voters get to decide if they raise their income taxes by 4% if they have personal incomes of $1 million or more. This would leave the total rate for that bracket to 9%. Should this pass and bring in additional funds, they are earmarked for education and transportation.

Voters in five states will weigh whether to explicitly outlaw involuntary servitude as part of the punishment for a crime. Alabama, Louisiana, Oregon, Tennessee, and Vermont will all consider these questions on the topic; there is a growing movement to change the 13th Amendment so it no longer allows slavery as a form of criminal punishment. This could potentially benefit the industry in these states.

On immigration, Ohio voters are considering whether to ban all local governments from allowing noncitizens to vote. San Francisco and New York have passed laws allowing noncitizens to vote for local offices and ballot measures. These face legal challenges.

Elsewhere, ballot measures will ask voters whether to extend certain benefits to immigrants in the country illegally, including the ability to obtain a driver’s license in Massachusetts and pay in-state college tuition in Arizona.

Take Away

They say elections have consequences. As various states elect to adopt or deny changes in the running of their state, investors may be able to position themselves to benefit from trends, changes, and additional funds being made available.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.wlwt.com/article/election-results-2022-ohio-kentucky-indiana-senate-governor/41781051

https://www.wsj.com/articles/midterm-elections-2022-results-ballot-measures-referenda-11667864143

https://www.wcvb.com/article/voter-information-massachusetts-election-2022-midterm/41890411

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/04/draftkings-shares-tumble-after-monthly-users-fall-short-of-estimates.html

Is Leisure the Overlooked Market Sector?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: Asad Photo Maldives (Pexels)

Travelers Gonna Travel!– Travel & Leisure Sector May Ignore the Recession

Economic activity in the U.S. contracted during the first half of the year. At the same time, inflation is running at 40-year highs. Investors looking to keep their money productive with reduced risk have focused on consumer staples and companies providing necessary services where demand isn’t impacted much by price. This is what experienced investors do when the economy falters. But this economy seems a bit different than previous periods of shrinking economic activity and rising prices. Jobs are still plentiful, and one industry, with a lot of pent-up demand leftover from the pandemic, is gearing up to exceed all expectations. That sector is leisure. We take a look below at the potential strength in the industry, where opportunities may be found, and how you could reduce timing risk with stocks on your shopping list.

Current State

More than half of Americans see leisure travel as a budget priority right now; in fact, 62% of Americans took at least one overnight trip between mid-May and mid-August. This is according to the latest The State of the American Traveler report compiled by Destination Analysis. Consumers continue to prioritize experiences over alternatives in their budget. As the U.S. Moves out of Fall and into the colder months, it appears the trend will continue. Chuck Artillio is co-owner of SinglesSki.com, winter-oriented travel, and leisure company. He told Channelchek, “Last year at this time, business was robust, yet bookings, as we stand now for the coming season, are already up over 100%.” Artillio added, “I’ve never seen anything like this before.”

The Destination Analysis survey also expects industrywide strength in demand for travel and leisure services in the last quarter of the year. The results show Fall and early Winter trip expectations are high. Over a quarter of Americans expect to take a trip in either October (26.6%), November (24.8%) or December (28.4%). This is up from June when 20% said they expected to take a trip in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Source: US Global Investors

The survey indicates that typical holiday travel includes visiting friends & family as the top driver for late year. However, second on the list of purposes for travel is the desire to return to a destination, followed by general atmosphere, and food & cuisine.

Source: US Global Investors

The survey produced hard data that showed Americans continue to prioritize having fun and relaxation when traveling. This, of course, can mean different things to different people. The majority said being in a quiet/peaceful location (82.5%) followed by beach time (69.7%), chilling-out poolside (67.3%), enjoying culinary experiences (65.6%), and luxury hotel experiences (60.4%).

Do Expectations Provide Opportunities?

An industry research report published this week titled, Entertainment & Leisure Industry Report: Ideas For Your Investing Shopping List, contains some ideas for interested investors. The authors of the leisure industry report include Michael Kupinski, Director of Research at Noble Capital Markets. Overall, Kupinski and Noble’s research associates find the current state of the economy as one that provides a “discount rack” of stocks that can weather a further downturn and may be the first to rise as the recovery seems imminent. He provides information and careful analysis on some stocks that he believes have favorable attributes, go here for in-depth details of these companies.

The analysts suggest investors develop a shopping list and concede that recognizing a turning point in market direction is the “hard part.” But they have suggestions for that as well. These include nibbling at the targets on your list to scale in over a period of time. This averaging in to stocks on your shopping list will lower the risk of picking one day to pile in, which may turn out to be bad timing.

Take Away

Down markets bring opportunity. They always have, and there is no reason to believe this time will be different. Finding sectors with promise, as the travel and leisure sector is now showing, then diving into research to select those in the sector with the most promise, followed by a decision to average in to the market, is one recognized way to put yourself in a position to benefit from the current “discount rack” that many stocks now seem to be on.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek