Category: Energy

Release – InPlay Oil Corp. Announces First Quarter 2024 Financial and Operating Results

Posted on by dburczyk@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Research News and Market Data on IPOOF

CALGARY AB, May 9, 2024 /CNW/ – InPlay Oil Corp. (TSX: IPO) (OTCQX: IPOOF) (“InPlay” or the “Company”) announces its financial and operating results for the three months ended March 31, 2024. InPlay’s condensed unaudited interim financial statements and notes, as well as Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) for the three months ended March 31, 2024 will be available at “www.sedarplus.ca” and our website at “www.inplayoil.com“. An updated presentation will soon be available on our website.

First Quarter 2024 Financial & Operating Results

  • Achieved average quarterly production of 8,605 boe/d(1) (57% light crude oil and NGLs).
  • Generated strong quarterly AFF(2) of $16.5 million ($0.18 per basic share(3)).
  • Returned $4.1 million to shareholders through our monthly base dividend, representing an annual yield of 7.6% relative to quarter-end market capitalization. Since November 2022 InPlay has distributed $25.6 million in dividends, or $0.285 per share including dividends declared to date in 2024.
  • Realized a strong operating income profit margin of 54%.
  • Completed an active capital program investing $25.5 million to drill, complete and equip 8 (5.6 net) ERH Cardium wells in Pembina and Willesden Green. The majority of production from the program came fully onstream later in March and into April benefiting from April’s higher Edmonton Par price of $109.70/bbl compared to $92.12/bbl average for the first quarter. Current corporate production is approximately 9,350 boe/d(1) (60% light crude oil and NGLs) based on field estimates.

Outlook and Operations Update(5)

We are excited about our capital program for the remainder of the year and plan to drill and bring new production online in the third quarter of 2024 focused on high oil-weighted properties given the current low natural gas pricing environment. The oil-weighted production from new wells is expected to benefit from higher realized oil prices forecasted for the balance of the year as a result of West Texas Intermediate (“WTI”) improvements which started in April. In addition, the Mixed Sweet Blend (“MSW”) differential which was USD $8.65/bbl in Q1 2024 and is forecasted to average USD $3.65/bbl on futures pricing for the balance of the year with the commencement of flow on the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion adding to takeaway capacity in Canada. InPlay’s second half drilling program is expected to start in June, or potentially July, with over 60% of our net wells for the year remaining to be drilled and brought on production. This activity is projected to lead to strong production rates and free adjusted funds flow (“FAFF”)(3) generation.

The Company looks forward to resuming development of a prolific area of Pembina previously restricted by third party gas plant capacity. In the first quarter, InPlay entered into a long-term Gas Handling Agreement which provides guaranteed access to natural gas processing capacity, allowing the Company to recommence development of this lucrative and strong rate of return growth area where InPlay has not drilled since the spring of 2022. These wells are characterized by strong oil rates similar to other Cardium oil wells while also benefitting from materially higher gas rates and lower overall production declines. InPlay plans to drill a three (3.0 net) extended reach horizontal (“ERH”) Cardium well pad in this area in the third quarter of 2024 with gas production expected to be sold into the stronger winter gas pricing season when forward pricing is approximately $3.45/mcf compared to current pricing of $1.70/mcf.

The Company is well positioned with strong momentum to build upon for the balance of the year as the majority of new production from the Company’s first quarter capital program came on-line in late March and early April. Minimal capital spending is planned for the second quarter, and the combination of higher average production with stronger realized oil prices which started in Q2 2024 is expected to result in significant FAFF generation and net debt reduction.

With the new wells coming on production in late March and early April, current corporate production is approximately 9,350 boe/d(1) (60% light crude oil and NGLs) based on field estimates. InPlay reiterates our 2024 annual average production guidance of 9,000 – 9,500 boe/d (59% – 61% light crude oil and NGLs) supported by strong current production rates and the majority of our wells coming on production in the second half of the year, including 3.0 net wells in our prolific Pembina play. The sustained improvement in WTI prices and a lower MSW differential since the release of our budget in late January results in an updated 2024 Adjusted Funds Flow (“AFF”)(2) forecast of $90 to $97 million based on USD $80 WTI for the remainder of the year, with estimated FAFF(3) of $23 to $33 million. The Company’s leverage metrics are projected to remain at levels which are among the lowest in our peer group. Net debt to EBITDA(3) is forecasted to be 0.4x – 0.5x for 2024 supporting the Company’s sustainable dividend and continued strategy of delivering returns to shareholders. The 2024 capital program will remain flexible and InPlay will revisit this program considering market and economic conditions through the remainder of the year.

Financial and Operating Results:

First Quarter 2024 Financial & Operations Overview:

InPlay completed an active capital program during the first quarter of 2024 consisting of $25.5 million of development capital which is approximately 40% of our capital budget for the year. The Company drilled two (1.9 net) ERH wells in Willesden Green which were brought on production in late February, with three (3.0 net) ERH wells in Pembina and two (0.3 net) non-operated Willesden Green ERH wells brought on production in late March. The Company also participated in one (0.35 net) non-operated Willesden Green ERH well which came on production in April. Drilling and completions operations were affected by cold weather and elevated industry activity limiting the availability of service providers resulting in new production coming on approximately three weeks later than anticipated. This delay however, resulted in new flush production coming on-line in a more favorable crude oil pricing environment with improved differentials resulting in materially higher Edmonton Par prices approximating CAD $109.70/bbl in April compared to CAD $92.12/bbl average for the first quarter.

The three (3.0 net) Pembina ERH wells drilled in the quarter came on production at the end of March and have exceeded internal expectations with average initial production (“IP”) rates per well of 275 boe/d(1) (86% light crude oil and NGLs) over their first 30 days and continue to produce at an average rate of 253 boe/d(1) (84% light crude oil and NGLs). These three wells offset five successful wells drilled in 2023 which have low decline rates and high light oil and liquids weightings contributing to our oil focused development strategy in 2024.

InPlay’s operations were impacted by an extreme cold snap in January including temperatures below -40°C for an extended period, which had not been experienced since 2004. The cold weather led to facility issues, low-rate wells freezing, a pipeline break, and an abnormally high number of producing wells going down and requiring servicing which took most of February to get back online. In aggregate, the impact to production for the quarter was approximately 340 boe/d (57% light crude oil and NGLs). In addition, non-operated downtime impacted production by approximately 115 boe/d in the quarter. Approximately half of this non-operated production has resumed and the majority of the remaining offline production is coming back online soon.

InPlay started a pilot optimization program in the quarter to lower pumps in older, low-rate horizontal oil wells to draw down pressure in the reservoir and increase inflows. The results have been positive to date with capital efficiency adds of approximately $6,000 per producing barrel. The Company has identified over 100 potential horizontal well candidates with pumps that can be lowered. The majority of future pump lowerings will occur as wells require servicing in the normal course of operations.

On behalf of our employees, management team and Board of Directors, we would like to thank our shareholders for their support and look forward to updating you on our progress throughout the year.

Reader Advisories

Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures

Throughout this document and other materials disclosed by the Company, InPlay uses certain measures to analyze financial performance, financial position and cash flow. These non-GAAP and other financial measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed under GAAP and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. The non-GAAP and other financial measures should not be considered alternatives to, or more meaningful than, financial measures that are determined in accordance with GAAP as indicators of the Company performance. Management believes that the presentation of these non-GAAP and other financial measures provides useful information to shareholders and investors in understanding and evaluating the Company’s ongoing operating performance, and the measures provide increased transparency and the ability to better analyze InPlay’s business performance against prior periods on a comparable basis.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Ratios

Included in this document are references to the terms “free adjusted funds flow”, “operating income”, “operating netback per boe”, “operating income profit margin” and “Net Debt to EBITDA”. Management believes these measures and ratios are helpful supplementary measures of financial and operating performance and provide users with similar, but potentially not comparable, information that is commonly used by other oil and natural gas companies. These terms do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and should not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than “profit before taxes”, “profit and comprehensive income”, “adjusted funds flow”, “capital expenditures”, “net debt”, or assets and liabilities as determined in accordance with GAAP as a measure of the Company’s performance and financial position.

Free Adjusted Funds Flow

Management considers FAFF an important measure to identify the Company’s ability to improve its financial condition through debt repayment and its ability to provide returns to shareholders. FAFF should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than AFF as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company’s performance. FAFF is calculated by the Company as AFF less exploration and development capital expenditures and property dispositions (acquisitions) and is a measure of the cashflow remaining after capital expenditures before corporate acquisitions that can be used for additional capital activity, corporate acquisitions, repayment of debt or decommissioning expenditures or potentially return of capital to shareholders. Refer to the “Forward Looking Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast FAFF.

Operating Income/Operating Netback per boe/Operating Income Profit Margin

InPlay uses “operating income”, “operating netback per boe” and “operating income profit margin” as key performance indicators. Operating income is calculated by the Company as oil and natural gas sales less royalties, operating expenses and transportation expenses and is a measure of the profitability of operations before administrative, share-based compensation, financing and other non-cash items. Management considers operating income an important measure to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates its field level profitability. Operating income should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than net income as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company’s performance. Operating netback per boe is calculated by the Company as operating income divided by average production for the respective period. Management considers operating netback per boe an important measure to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates its field level profitability per unit of production. Operating income profit margin is calculated by the Company as operating income as a percentage of oil and natural gas sales. Management considers operating income profit margin an important measure to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates how efficiently the Company generates field level profits from its sales revenue. Refer below for a calculation of operating income, operating netback per boe and operating income profit margin.

Net Debt to EBITDA

Management considers Net Debt to EBITDA an important measure as it is a key metric to identify the Company’s ability to fund financing expenses, net debt reductions and other obligations. EBITDA is calculated by the Company as adjusted funds flow before interest expense. When this measure is presented quarterly, EBITDA is annualized by multiplying by four. When this measure is presented on a trailing twelve month basis, EBITDA for the twelve months preceding the net debt date is used in the calculation. This measure is consistent with the EBITDA formula prescribed under the Company’s Senior Credit Facility. Net Debt to EBITDA is calculated as Net Debt divided by EBITDA. Refer to the “Forward Looking Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast Net Debt to EBITDA.

Capital Management Measures

Adjusted Funds Flow

Management considers adjusted funds flow to be an important measure of InPlay’s ability to generate the funds necessary to finance capital expenditures. Adjusted funds flow is a GAAP measure and is disclosed in the notes to the Company’s financial statements for the three months ended March 31, 2024. All references to adjusted funds flow throughout this document are calculated as funds flow adjusting for decommissioning expenditures. Decommissioning expenditures are adjusted from funds flow as they are incurred on a discretionary and irregular basis and are primarily incurred on previous operating assets. The Company also presents adjusted funds flow per share whereby per share amounts are calculated using weighted average shares outstanding consistent with the calculation of profit per common share.

Net Debt

Net debt is a GAAP measure and is disclosed in the notes to the Company’s financial statements for the three months ended March 31, 2024. The Company closely monitors its capital structure with the goal of maintaining a strong balance sheet to fund the future growth of the Company. The Company monitors net debt as part of its capital structure. The Company uses net debt (bank debt plus accounts payable and accrued liabilities less accounts receivables and accrued receivables, prepaid expenses and deposits and inventory) as an alternative measure of outstanding debt. Management considers net debt an important measure to assist in assessing the liquidity of the Company.

Supplementary Measures

“Average realized crude oil price” is comprised of crude oil commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s crude oil volumes. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.

“Average realized NGL price” is comprised of NGL commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s NGL volumes. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.

“Average realized natural gas price” is comprised of natural gas commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s natural gas volumes. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.

“Average realized commodity price” is comprised of commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s volumes. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.

“Adjusted funds flow per weighted average basic share” is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided by the basic weighted average common shares.

“Adjusted funds flow per weighted average diluted share” is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided by the diluted weighted average common shares.

“Adjusted funds flow per boe” is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided by total production.

Forward-Looking Information and Statements

This document contains certain forward–looking information and statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The use of any of the words “expect”, “anticipate”, “continue”, “estimate”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “should”, “believe”, “plans”, “intends”, “forecast” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking information or statements. In particular, but without limiting the foregoing, this news release contains forward-looking information and statements pertaining to the following: the Company’s business strategy, milestones and objectives; the Company’s planned 2024 capital program including wells to be drilled and completed and the timing of the same including, without limitation, the timing of wells coming on production; 2024 guidance based on the planned capital program and all associated underlying assumptions set forth in this press release including, without limitation, forecasts of 2024 annual average production levels, adjusted funds flow, free adjusted funds flow, Net Debt/EBITDA ratio, operating income profit margin, and Management’s belief that the Company can grow some or all of these attributes and specified measures; light crude oil and NGLs weighting estimates including the expectation that the high light oil and liquids weighting will continue into 2024; expectations regarding future commodity prices; future oil and natural gas prices including the forecast that MSW differentials to WTI are forecasted to improve through 2024; future liquidity and financial capacity; future results from operations and operating metrics; future costs, expenses and royalty rates; future interest costs; the exchange rate between the $US and $Cdn; future development, exploration, acquisition, development and infrastructure activities and related capital expenditures, including our planned 2024 capital program; the amount and timing of capital projects; and methods of funding our capital program.

The internal projections, expectations, or beliefs underlying our Board approved 2024 capital budget and associated guidance are subject to change in light of, among other factors, the impact of world events including the Russia/Ukraine conflict and war in the Middle East, ongoing results, prevailing economic circumstances, volatile commodity prices, and changes in industry conditions and regulations. InPlay’s 2024 financial outlook and guidance provides shareholders with relevant information on management’s expectations for results of operations, excluding any potential acquisitions or dispositions, for such time periods based upon the key assumptions outlined herein. Readers are cautioned that events or circumstances could cause capital plans and associated results to differ materially from those predicted and InPlay’s guidance for 2024 may not be appropriate for other purposes. Accordingly, undue reliance should not be placed on same.

Forward-looking statements or information are based on a number of material factors, expectations or assumptions of InPlay which have been used to develop such statements and information but which may prove to be incorrect. Although InPlay believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements or information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements because InPlay can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition to other factors and assumptions which may be identified herein, assumptions have been made regarding, among other things: the impact of increasing competition; the general stability of the economic and political environment in which InPlay operates; the timely receipt of any required regulatory approvals; the ability of InPlay to obtain qualified staff, equipment and services in a timely and cost efficient manner; drilling results; the ability of the operator of the projects in which InPlay has an interest in to operate the field in a safe, efficient and effective manner; the ability of InPlay to obtain debt financing on acceptable terms; the anticipated tax treatment of the monthly base dividend; the timing and amount of purchases under the Company’s NCIB; field production rates and decline rates; the ability to replace and expand oil and natural gas reserves through acquisition, development and exploration; the timing and cost of pipeline, storage and facility construction and the ability of InPlay to secure adequate product transportation; future commodity prices; that various conditions to a shareholder return strategy can be satisfied; the ongoing impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and war in the Middle East; currency, exchange and interest rates; regulatory framework regarding royalties, taxes and environmental matters in the jurisdictions in which InPlay operates; and the ability of InPlay to successfully market its oil and natural gas products.

Without limitation of the foregoing, readers are cautioned that the Company’s future dividend payments to shareholders of the Company, if any, and the level thereof will be subject to the discretion of the Board of Directors of InPlay. The Company’s dividend policy and funds available for the payment of dividends, if any, from time to time, is dependent upon, among other things, levels of FAFF, leverage ratios, financial requirements for the Company’s operations and execution of its growth strategy, fluctuations in commodity prices and working capital, the timing and amount of capital expenditures, credit facility availability and limitations on distributions existing thereunder, and other factors beyond the Company’s control. Further, the ability of the Company to pay dividends will be subject to applicable laws, including satisfaction of solvency tests under the Business Corporations Act (Alberta), and satisfaction of certain applicable contractual restrictions contained in the agreements governing the Company’s outstanding indebtedness.

The forward-looking information and statements included herein are not guarantees of future performance and should not be unduly relied upon. Such information and statements, including the assumptions made in respect thereof, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to defer materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking information or statements including, without limitation: the continuing impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and war in the Middle East; inflation and the risk of a global recession; changes in our planned 2024 capital program; changes in our approach to shareholder returns; changes in commodity prices and other assumptions outlined herein; the risk that dividend payments may be reduced, suspended or cancelled; the potential for variation in the quality of the reservoirs in which we operate; changes in the demand for or supply of our products; unanticipated operating results or production declines; changes in tax or environmental laws, royalty rates or other regulatory matters; changes in development plans or strategies of InPlay or by third party operators of our properties; changes in our credit structure, increased debt levels or debt service requirements; inaccurate estimation of our light crude oil and natural gas reserve and resource volumes; limited, unfavorable or a lack of access to capital markets; increased costs; a lack of adequate insurance coverage; the impact of competitors; and certain other risks detailed from time-to-time in InPlay’s continuous disclosure documents filed on SEDAR including our Annual Information Form and our MD&A.

This press release contains future-oriented financial information and financial outlook information (collectively, “FOFI”) about InPlay’s financial and leverage targets and objectives, potential dividends, share buybacks and beliefs underlying our Board approved 2024 capital budget and associated guidance, all of which are subject to the same assumptions, risk factors, limitations, and qualifications as set forth in the above paragraphs. The actual results of operations of InPlay and the resulting financial results will likely vary from the amounts set forth in this press release and such variation may be material. InPlay and its management believe that the FOFI has been prepared on a reasonable basis, reflecting management’s reasonable estimates and judgments. However, because this information is subjective and subject to numerous risks, it should not be relied on as necessarily indicative of future results. Except as required by applicable securities laws, InPlay undertakes no obligation to update such FOFI. FOFI contained in this press release was made as of the date of this press release and was provided for the purpose of providing further information about InPlay’s anticipated future business operations and strategy. Readers are cautioned that the FOFI contained in this press release should not be used for purposes other than for which it is disclosed herein.

The forward-looking information and statements contained in this news release speak only as of the date hereof and InPlay does not assume any obligation to publicly update or revise any of the included forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities laws.

Risk Factors to FLI

Risk factors that could materially impact successful execution and actual results of the Company’s 2024 capital program and associated guidance and estimates include:

  • volatility of petroleum and natural gas prices and inherent difficulty in the accuracy of predictions related thereto;
  • the extent of any unfavourable impacts of wildfires in the province of Alberta.
  • changes in Federal and Provincial regulations;
  • the Company’s ability to secure financing for the Board approved 2024 capital program and longer-term capital plans sourced from AFF, bank or other debt instruments, asset sales, equity issuance, infrastructure financing or some combination thereof; and
  • those additional risk factors set forth in the Company’s MD&A and most recent Annual Information Form filed on SEDAR

Key Budget and Underlying Material Assumptions to FLI

The Company’s 2024 guidance remains the same as previously released January 29, 2024 except as noted below. The key budget and underlying material assumptions used by the Company in the development of its 2024 guidance are as follows:

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Zeekr’s $5B Blockbuster IPO Heats Up the Chinese EV Battleground

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The electric vehicle revolution continues full-throttle, with Chinese luxury upstart Zeekr making a bold $5.1 billion debut on U.S. public markets this week. In an oversubscribed IPO that priced at the top of its indicated range, the Geely-backed marque has staked an immediate claim as a formidable new contender vying for a slice of the world’s largest EV market.

For investors, Zeekr’s sizzling public premiere throws fresh gas on the opportunities — and risks — of betting on China’s increasingly crowded field of ambitious EV trailblazers. While backing the next disruptive Tesla remains a tantalizing prospect, the playing field has rapidly evolved into a multi-player battlefield where winners and losers will be harshly divisive.

Zeekr certainly checks many of the boxes that have catalyzed the staggering valuations already assigned to Chinese EV leaders like Nio, XPeng, and Li Auto. It boasts sleek vehicle designs, advanced proprietary technologies, and a promising initial sales ramp located at the epicenter of the global EV transformation underway.

The company’s $441 million capital raise provides ample fuel for scaling up manufacturing, developing future products, expanding sales and marketing reach, and potentially complementing its luxury sedan and SUV lineup with additional high-end models. An early valuation of over $5 billion reflects lofty aspirations and embeds expectations for exponential growth in the years ahead.

But it also invites intense scrutiny as Zeekr contends with automotive stalwarts like BYD and upstarts like Nio, along with a rising EV tide from Detroit’s revered marques and European juggernauts. Even perceived victories on sales metrics can prove ephemeral. Just this week, reports indicated Zeekr may have overtaken Tesla for EV deliveries in its home province only to see the more veteran American rival surge back ahead in ensuing days.

With so many players rushing toward electrification, from startups to multi-national conglomerates, successfully navigating the terrain demands more than just leading technologies or early sales momentum. Forging an indelible brand identity, sustainable competitive advantages, and durable customer loyalty could ultimately separate the sector’s long-term winners from its bevy of also-rans.

For Chinese EV entrants like Zeekr, carving out meaningful market share is only step one. Generating consistent profitability and free cash flows will be critical for delivering on the premium valuations embedded in frothy public offerings. So far, even category leaders have struggled to stem losses and burned through billions in pursuing aggressive growth and vertical integration strategies.

Investors bullish on Zeekr’s potential need to weigh the company’s limited operating history and scant financial resources compared to deep-pocketed incumbents and well-capitalized rivals that have amassed years of EV production experience and built extensive supply chains and global sales footprints.

There’s also escalating geopolitical overhang to consider following recent trade tensions and economic maneuverings that elevate risks for indirect Chinese investment exposures. Plenty of speculators have been burned before chasing overheated IPOs at record valuations, only to see shares plummet amid misaligned expectations and deteriorating macroeconomic crosswinds.

Still, for intrepid investors with sky-high conviction in China’s ability to continue dominating EV production value chains, Zeekr’s early innings positioning as a luxe vertical disruptor could allow for savvy entry points. The company hits all the checkboxes that have fueled explosive growth stories in the past, from brash ambitions to cutting-edge technologies to heavyweight strategic backers.

Over the long haul, investor returns in the EV space will ultimately hinge on identifying the handful of players positioned to endure the coming shakeout and cement permanent towerholds. For risk-tolerant portfolios able to withstand volatility, Zeekr’s high-flying market entrance marks a milestone in automotive’s most pivotal technological transition in over a century.

Whether this latest entrant can thrive — or get quickly upended — remains speculative. But the feeding frenzy greeting its arrival underscores insatiable market enthusiasm for staking a claim in the Great EV Migration shaping up on both sides of the Pacific. As this white-hot battlefield heats up, investors must carefully separate the true disruptors reshaping mobility from the litany of overvaluated upstarts soon to be stranded along the road to electrification.

Emerging Growth Natural Resources, Energy, Industrials, and Transportation Companies Featured at Noble Capital Markets’ September Virtual Equity Conference

Posted on by cpatches
Presenting Company Registration
Investor Attendee Registration

View the Conference eBook
  • Emerging Growth Public Natural Resources, Energy, Industrials, and Transportation (and more) Company Executive Presentations
  • Q&A Sessions Moderated by Noble’s Analysts and Bankers
  • Scheduled 1×1 Meetings with Qualified Investors

Preview the Presenting Companies

Noble Capital Markets, a full-service SEC / FINRA registered broker-dealer, dedicated exclusively to serving emerging growth companies, is pleased to present the Basic Industries Virtual Equity Conference Emerging Growth Virtual Equity Conference, taking place September 25th and 26th, 2024. This virtual gathering is set to be an immersive experience, bringing together a unique blend of investors, industry leaders, and experts in various sectors surrounding the natural resources, energy, industrials, and transportation spaces.

Part of Noble’s Robust 2024 Events Calendar

The Natural Resources, Energy, Industrials, and Transportation Emerging Growth Virtual Equity Conference is part of Noble’s 2024 event programming, featuring a range of c-suite interviews, in-person non-deal roadshows throughout the United States, two other sector-specific virtual equity conferences, and culminating in Noble’s preeminent in-person investor conference, NobleCon20, to be held at Florida Atlantic University in Boca Raton, Florida December 3-4. Learn more about NobleCon20 here.

Check out the calendar of upcoming in-person non-deal roadshows here.

Sign up to receive more information on Noble’s other virtual conferences here.

What to Expect

The Natural Resources, Energy, Industrials, and Transportation Emerging Growth Virtual Equity Conference will feature 2 days of corporate presentations from up to 50 innovative public companies, showcasing their latest advancements and investment opportunities. Each presentation will be followed by a fireside-style Q&A session proctored by one of Noble’s analysts or bankers, with questions taken from the audience during the presentation. Panel presentations are planned, featuring key opinion leaders in these sectors, providing valuable insights on emerging trends. Scheduled one-on-one meetings with public company executives, coordinated by Noble’s dedicated Investor Outreach team, are also available to qualified investors.

Why Your Company Should Present

Looking to increase awareness in your company and increase liquidity? Paid participation in Noble’s investor conferences, both virtual and in-person, provides that opportunity, with a tailored experience aimed at delivering substantial value. After 40 years of serving emerging growth companies, and the investors who follow them, Noble has built an investor base eager to discover where the next success story lies.

Noble’s investor base is relevant and, in many cases, new to your company. Noble’s dedicated Investor Outreach team provides unmatched exposure to investors that can invest in your company, including small money managers, family offices, RIAs, wealth managers, self-directed investors, and institutions. Most of Noble’s investors specifically seek undervalued, overlooked, emerging investment opportunities.

The cost to present includes your corporate presentation with a Q&A session proctored by one of Noble’s analysts or bankers, a webcast recording, scheduled 1×1 meetings with qualified investors, and marketing on Channelchek.

Benefits for Investors

Hear directly from the c-suite of the next innovators in natural resources, energy, industrials, and transportation and learn about new investment opportunities. The Q&A portion of each presentation gives you the opportunity to have your questions answered during or after the proctored session. The planned panel presentations are sure to provide expert insight on growing trends in these spaces. And, for qualified investors, one-on-one meetings are available with company executives; scheduled by Noble’s dedicated Investor Outreach team. All from the comfort of your own desk, and at no cost.

How to Register

Limited presenting slots are available

Publicly traded companies in these sectors can submit their registration details here.

If you have any questions about presenting, please contact events@noblecapitalmarkets.com

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Interested in becoming a sponsor of Noble’s virtual and in-person investor conferences?

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Release – InPlay Oil Corp. Confirms Monthly Dividend for May 2024

Posted on by dburczyk@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Research News and Market Data on IPOOF

CALGARY, AB, May 1, 2024 /CNW/ – InPlay Oil Corp. (TSX: IPO) (OTCQX: IPOOF) (“InPlay” or the “Company”) is pleased to confirm that its Board of Directors has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.015 per common share payable on May 31, 2024, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 15, 2024. The monthly cash dividend is expected to be designated as an “eligible dividend” for Canadian federal and provincial income tax purposes.

About InPlay Oil Corp.

InPlay is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF. For further information: Please contact: Doug Bartole, President and Chief Executive Officer, InPlay Oil Corp., Telephone: (587) 955-0632, www.inplayoil.com; Darren Dittmer, Chief Financial Officer, InPlay Oil Corp., Telephone: (587) 955-0634

Energy Fuels (UUUU) – Energy Fuels to acquire Base Resources and shore up Rare Earth Element supply

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Energy Fuels is a leading U.S.-based uranium mining company, supplying U3O8 to major nuclear utilities. Energy Fuels also produces vanadium from certain of its projects, as market conditions warrant, and is ramping up commercial-scale production of REE carbonate. Its corporate offices are in Lakewood, Colorado, near Denver, and all its assets and employees are in the United States. Energy Fuels holds three of America’s key uranium production centers: the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the Nichols Ranch in-situ recovery (“ISR”) Project in Wyoming, and the Alta Mesa ISR Project in Texas. The White Mesa Mill is the only conventional uranium mill operating in the U.S. today, has a licensed capacity of over 8 million pounds of U3O8 per year, has the ability to produce vanadium when market conditions warrant, as well as REE carbonate from various uranium-bearing ores. The Nichols Ranch ISR Project is on standby and has a licensed capacity of 2 million pounds of U3O8 per year. The Alta Mesa ISR Project is also on standby and has a licensed capacity of 1.5 million pounds of U3O8 per year. In addition to the above production facilities, Energy Fuels also has one of the largest NI 43-101 compliant uranium resource portfolios in the U.S. and several uranium and uranium/vanadium mining projects on standby and in various stages of permitting and development. The primary trading market for Energy Fuels’ common shares is the NYSE American under the trading symbol “UUUU,” and the Company’s common shares are also listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the trading symbol “EFR.” Energy Fuels’ website is www.energyfuels.com.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Energy Fuels agreed to acquire Base Resources (ASX: BSE) for $242 million. Payment would consist of 0.0260 shares of UUUU stock and $0.042 in cash for each BSE share. UUUU management believes the acquisition will be immediately accretive and significantly add to Energy Fuel’s value given BSE assets with a PV10 estimated value close to $2 billion.

BSE’s Toliara project in Madagascar is the key to the purchase. Toliara is a world-class, advanced-stage, low-cost, and large-scale heavy sands project with large quantities of Monazite sand. The monazite will be shipped to UUUU’s White Mesa Mill for processing. Along with other monazite projects (Chemours, Donald, Bahia) Energy Fuels will now have enough monazite to proceed with the mill’s phase II expansion, which will increase capacity 5-6 times and begin separating heavy REEs. 


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Hemisphere Energy (HMENF) – Financial results benefit from fall drilling

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, April 22, 2024

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results were in line with expectations absent charge. Income, cash flow and earnings for the 2023-4Q and 2023 year would have been in line with expectations absent a $4.2 million nonrecurring charge to write down non-core assets.

Quarter production rose 16% year over year due to an active fall drilling program. The increase was expected. Extreme weather hurt production in the first few months of 2024 (2024-1Q production was announced below that in our models) but has risen to all-time high levels recently. We have lowered our 2024-1Q production estimate but raised our estimate for the remaining quarter’s of 2024.


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Janet Yellen Signals Potential Tariffs on Chinese Green Energy Exports

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen escalated trade tensions with China over its massive subsidies for green industries like electric vehicles, solar panels and batteries. During her recent four-day visit to Beijing, Yellen bluntly warned that the Biden administration “will not accept” American industries being decimated by a flood of cheap Chinese exports – a repeat of the “China shock” that hollowed out U.S. manufacturing in the early 2000s.

At the heart of the dispute are allegations that China has massively overinvested in renewable energy supply chains, building factory capacity far exceeding domestic demand. This excess output is then exported at artificially low prices due to Beijing’s subsidies, undercutting firms in the U.S., Europe and elsewhere.

“Over a decade ago, massive Chinese government support led to below-cost Chinese steel that flooded the global market and decimated industries across the world and in the United States,” Yellen said. “I’ve made it clear that President Biden and I will not accept that reality again.”

While not threatening immediate tariffs or trade actions, the stark warning shows Washington is seriously considering punitive measures if Beijing does not rein in subsidies and overcapacity. Yellen said U.S. concerns are shared by allies like Europe and Japan fearing a glut of unfairly cheap Chinese green tech imports.

For its part, China is pushing back hard. Officials argue the U.S. is unfairly portraying its renewable energy firms as subsidized, understating their innovation. They claim restricting Chinese electric vehicle imports would violate WTO rules and deprive global markets of key climate solutions.

Escalating tensions over green tech subsidies could disrupt trade flows and supply chains for renewable energy developers, electric automakers, battery manufacturers and more across multiple continents. Some key impacts for investors:

Rising Costs: Potential tariffs on Chinese solar panels, wind turbines, EV batteries and other components could increase costs for green energy projects in the U.S. and allied countries, slowing roll-out.

Shifting Competitive Landscape: Non-Chinese exporters of renewable hardware like solar from countries like South Korea, Vietnam or India may benefit from U.S. trade actions against China, increasing overall competition.

Consumer Prices: Green tech price inflation could be passed through to consumers for products like rooftop solar systems, home batteries and EVs if tariffs increase costs.

Strategic Decoupling: If tensions escalate towards a full “decoupling”, it could accelerate efforts by the U.S., Europe and others to secure their supply chains by bringing more critical green industries in-house through domestic investments and subsidies.

Stock Impacts: Depending on how tensions unfold, stocks of firms exposed to U.S.-China green tech trade flows could face volatility and disruptions in both directions. Tariffs would likely create clear winners and losers.

For now, Yellen says new forums for discussions have been created to potentially resolve overcapacity concerns. However, her blunt warnings suggest the U.S. will not hesitate to take tougher actions to protect America’s fledgling renewable energy and electric vehicle industries from alleged unfair Chinese trade practices.

Ford Shifts EV Strategy, Delays Electric SUV and Truck Launches

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Ford Motor Company has pumped the brakes on its plans to rapidly electrify its vehicle lineup, announcing delays for two hotly anticipated all-electric models – a three-row SUV and a pickup truck. The automaker cited the need to allow more time for consumer demand and new battery technologies to develop further before committing to these capital-intensive vehicle programs.

The multi-row electric SUV initially targeted for production in 2025 at Ford’s Oakville, Canada plant has been pushed back to at least 2027. And the electric pickup previously slated for late 2025 is now not expected until 2026. This recalibrated roadmap represents a significant detour from Ford’s earlier aggressive EV roadmap, and has notable implications both for Ford and the overall electric vehicle market trajectory.

For Ford, the delays allow the company to be more judicious with its investments at a time when EV adoption has been slower and more costly than many projected. Ford lost $4.7 billion on its electric vehicle efforts in 2023 alone. By taking a more measured approach, Ford can hopefully time these program launches better with consumer readiness and technological advancements that could make the vehicles more compelling and profitable.

However, the setbacks also risk Ford falling behind leaders like Tesla, Hyundai/Kia, and Chinese EV makers BYD and Xiaomi in the fierce electric vehicle battle. Both Tesla and Hyundai/Kia outsold Ford’s EV lineup in the first quarter of 2024, while BYD is gearing up to launch its first electric pickup truck to challenge Ford in that key segment.

For investors, Ford’s pulled-back EV plans could be seen as a prudent way to limit the staggering losses in that part of the business for now. But it also injects more uncertainty around Ford’s long-term EV positioning and market share outlook. Competition is intensifying rapidly with new electric offerings from virtually every major automaker, including emerging players like Xiaomi looking to grab a piece of the EV pie.

Tesla maintains a clear lead, but its growth has slowed as rivals have released more compelling electric models across more vehicle segments. If companies like Hyundai, GM, Volkswagen, BYD and others can continue gaining traction, Ford could find itself scrambling if it is late to market with mainstream electric SUV and truck options that are so pivotal to its product mix.

The EV delays underscore the challenging transitions legacy automakers face in balancing investments for the electric future while still deriving most of their profits from sales of internal combustion engine vehicles today. Stock investors seem to be giving Ford the benefit of the doubt for now, with shares trading close to 52-week highs. But delivering on execution with these postponed electric models has become even more crucial for Ford to remain relevant and profitable over the long haul as new EV competitors emerge.

Energy Industry Report – Energy stocks rise with oil prices

Posted on by cpatches

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Tuesday, April 2, 2024

Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures

Energy stocks outpaced the general overall market in the March quarter due to a rise in oil prices. Higher oil prices reflect improving global economics and Middle East concerns. Natural gas prices continued to fall due to warm weather and high storage levels.

The United States is ramping up the export of oil and liquified natural gas. Oil exports have helped offset a reduction in  OPEC exports. The United States, once a large importer of LNG, is now the largest exporter. LNG exports have helped European countries replace gas from Russia.

Balance sheets have improved and management has become more disciplined. Most energy companies used the recent strength in energy prices to pay down debt and repurchase shares instead of expanding operations. This new-found discipline leaves the companies in a good position to make investments quickly should energy prices rise, which we believe could happen with an improvement in global economic conditions.

We remain positive on the sector. We look for energy companies, especially those focused on oil, to continue to outpace the overall market should energy prices rise.

Energy stocks, as measured by the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), rose 12.9% during the quarter ended March 31, 2024. The increase was slightly higher than the 10.2% increase in the S&P Composite index. Energy stocks were boosted by a 16.1% increase in the May oil futures prices, which more than offset a 29.9% decrease in the May natural gas futures price. 

At current oil prices, domestic producers are able to produce oil at profitable levels. Oil production has grown from 5 million barrels of oil per day (mmboe/d) in 2008 to the current level above 12 mmboe/d. Most of the production has come from increased drilling in the Permian Basin. Rig count has risen steadily in recent years to a level above 500 rigs but remains well below the 1600 rig level seen as recently as 2012. Increase production from fewer rigs demonstrated productivity gains in recent years as well as an increased focus on drilling in the Permian Basin, an area with high initial flow rates.

Figure #1

As domestic production grows, the United States has taken on an increased role supplying oil across the world. Oil exports have grown steadily in recent years. U.S. production has largely replaced the import of oil from OPEC which has declined from 0.20 million barrels of oil per day in 2008 to 0.03 million mmboe/d in January 2024.

Figure #2

An even more dramatic story can be told regarding natural gas production. Production continues to rise even as natural gas prices remain weak. Higher production comes despite a reduction in natural gas rigs from a peak level near 1600 in 2008 to the current level of 112. Once again, increased productivity comes due to a focus on drilling in areas with shale formations where horizontal drilling and fracking greatly increase initial production rates.

Figure #3

The United States has been steadily increasing the amount of liquified natural gas it exports. In fact, the United States has recently become the largest exporter of LNG. This transformation from being the largest importer of LNG to becoming the largest exporter has taken place in less than 20 years. Much of the increase in exports reflects increased deliveries to European countries in response to a decrease in natural gas from Russia.

Figure #4

The increased involvement in the global energy trade has improved the profitability of domestic producers. Most producers are receiving high netbacks at current energy prices. This is especially true for producers focused on oil. With strong balance sheets and a new-found management discipline that focuses on rewarding shareholders over expanding operations, we believe most energy companies are well positioned to grow earnings and cash flow at current prices. At the same time, they are able to expand operations should prices rise, as we believe could happen as global economic conditions improve. We look for energy stocks to continue their strength and maintain our favorable outlook on the group.

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Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
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Aemetis Secures $200 Million for Renewable Fuels Expansion Through Immigrant Investor Program

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a major boost to its ambitious renewable energy growth plans, Aemetis, Inc. has received approval from U.S. immigration authorities for $200 million in low-cost funding from foreign investors through the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Visa Program. This influx of capital will support construction of several key initiatives at the forefront of Aemetis’ drive to replace petroleum-based products with renewable alternatives.

The $200 million EB-5 investment will primarily fund three transformative projects – the development of a cutting-edge sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production plant in Riverbank, California, a vast network of dairy farms generating renewable natural gas, and systems to capture and sequester carbon emissions.

At the centerpiece is Aemetis’ newly permitted Riverbank SAF refinery, designed to produce a staggering 78 million gallons of the low-carbon fuel annually to meet skyrocketing demand from airlines. The company has already secured over $3 billion worth of SAF supply contracts with major carriers desperate to reduce their environmental footprint and comply with tightening regulations.

“This $200 million of EB-5 funding provides us with attractive low-interest capital to construct our sustainable aviation fuel plant and build out other negative carbon intensity projects like dairy biogas and CO2 sequestration,” said Eric McAfee, CEO of Aemetis. “These investments will be transformative for our company’s growth.”

The EB-5 program, created in 1990, allows foreign investors to obtain U.S. permanent residency through investing substantial funds into domestic projects that create full-time jobs in high unemployment areas or rural regions. Aemetis’ projects qualified by being located at the company’s existing ethanol production facility in Keyes and the new Riverbank plant site, both classified as high unemployment zones by authorities.

In total, 245 foreign investors were approved to participate by providing $800,000 each, joining 8 others who had previously invested $4 million. The $200 million sum represents a considerable capital raise for Aemetis on highly attractive terms, enabling the company to expand its suite of renewable offerings.

In addition to the SAF refinery, funds will go towards building out the company’s dairy renewable natural gas operations across California’s Central Valley. Aemetis plans to construct biodigesters to capture methane from cattle waste at numerous dairy farms, which will then be processed into pipeline-quality renewable natural gas (RNG) as an ultra-low carbon substitute for fossil gas. The funding will cover new gas pipelines, biofuel conversion facilities, and RNG fueling stations to service this rapidly growing market.

A portion of the EB-5 investment is also earmarked for carbon capture and sequestration systems at Aemetis’ biorefineries, furthering efforts to shrink the company’s carbon footprint to negative levels. By safely storing emissions underground, Aemetis aims to produce some of the most environmentally friendly and low carbon-intensity biofuels, bioenergy, and biomaterials in the world.

“The EB-5 funding, combined with our other financing sources like 20-year USDA loans, provide the growth capital for Aemetis to construct large-scale projects in line with our bold Five Year Plan,” McAfee stated. “We deeply appreciate the confidence shown by these investors in our vision for revolutionizing the renewable fuels landscape.”

As global demand for sustainable energy solutions continues rising, the $200 million EB-5 infusion positions Aemetis at the forefront of this transition, paving the way for its pioneering dairy biogas, carbon-negative biofuels, and other low-carbon innovations to scale up rapidly in the coming years.

Take a moment to take a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Senior Research Analyst Michael Heim’s coverage list.

Hemisphere Energy (HMENF) – Hemisphere releases reserve report

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, March 15, 2024

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Hemisphere announced an independent evaluation of its reserves highlighting a 5% increase in NPV10 value for proved reserves. The estimated value for total proved reserves (PR) when discounted back at a 10% rate was $325 million ($3.27 per share) versus $308 million in the reserve from last year. The increase reflects higher West Canada Select oil prices in future years with the completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline running from Alberta to the Pacific Coast. The value of proved developed producing (PDP) reserves rose 9% as the company was active drilling in 2023 and moving reserves into the PDP category.

The company was able to replace reserves reduced by production through drilling and acquisition. Hemisphere produced 1.1 mmboe in 2023 and added 1.0 mmboe of reserves through the drillbit or from acquisition. As a result, proved reserves were 12.1 mmboe in the most recent report versus 12.2 mmboe last year. The company spent $16 million to drill eight wells in addition to purchasing land and seismic. Just two years ago, capital expenditures were only $8 million. Finding, Development and Acquisition costs per proved reserve added in 2023 were $14.82/boe, an attractive price given current oil prices. 


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InPlay Oil (IPOOF) – Operating and financial results in line with expectations

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, March 14, 2024

InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Quarterly production in line with recently reduced guidance. InPlay reported 2023 production volume of 9,025 boe/day consistent with guidance of 9,000-9,100 boe/day. We had expressed concern that the previous decline in guidance reflected a sharper production decline curve than previously expected. Management assures that the decline curve has not changed and the decline reflects a shift towards drilling oil wells which have a lower initial production rate than gas wells. 

InPlay released a reserve report for the 2023 year end. The reserve report shows a modest reduction in reserves and reserve value implying a reserve replacement rate slightly below 1.0 times. The calculation is somewhat complicated by changing assumptions regarding assumed energy pricing and recoverability. The report indicated a finding, development and acquisition cost of $23.36/boe which is attractive compared to current prices.


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Drivers Brace for Higher Gas Prices as Oil Costs Spike

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Motorists across the nation are once again feeling the pinch at the gas pump as oil prices have climbed sharply in recent months. After a brief reprieve earlier this year, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline has risen over 18 cents in just the last month to around $3.40 according to AAA data. Experts warn that prices could jump another 10-15 cents over the next couple of weeks alone.

The primary culprit behind the surge is the rising cost of crude oil. Both the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate and the global Brent crude have seen prices spike, with WTI crude now hovering around $79 per barrel and Brent north of $83 per barrel. Just a few months ago, WTI started 2024 just over $70 a barrel.

As crude gets more expensive for refiners to purchase, the costs get passed along to consumers in the form of higher gasoline prices. Tighter supplies and seasonal factors are also contributing to price increases at the pump.

“This week, Gulf Coast refiners began transitioning to more expensive summer blend gasoline, which accounts for nearly 50% of the nation’s refining capacity,” said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates. “That switch means higher prices are ahead.”

California drivers are being hit particularly hard, with the statewide average price per gallon already at a lofty $4.88 as of Wednesday. Refinery maintenance, lower inventory levels, and the changeover to summer blends have caused California gas prices to jump around 25 cents in recent weeks according to Lipow.

The overall lower supply situation is being exacerbated by disruptions at some key refineries. For example, BP’s massive Whiting refinery in Indiana, the largest in the Midwest, is still recovering from a recent power outage caused by cold weather that impacted production.

Historically, spring represents the start of the annual rise in gas prices as refiners transition to summer blends and demand picks up with more drivers hitting the road after the winter months. Consumer demand typically peaks during summer’s peak driving season.

While higher energy costs were one of the main factors driving an unexpected increase in inflation in February, rising gas prices take an oversized toll on household budgets. The latest Consumer Price Index data showed the gasoline index spiked 3.8% last month alone after declining in January.

Analysts caution there is likely more pain at the pump on the horizon with the summer driving season still ahead. Unless crude oil prices reverse course or refining capacity increases, American drivers can expect gasoline to remain unusually expensive compared to this time last year.

“With the industry having less refining capacity and the economy remaining relatively strong, I expect retail gasoline prices to set new records across the nation in the coming months,” Lipow stated.

Whether taking a road trip for spring break or commuting to and from work and activities, consumers have little choice but to absorb the impact of elevated gas prices cutting into other spending. Budgets will be further squeezed if crude oil costs remain stubbornly high and gasoline supply remains tight.