Can an Inexpensive, Repurposed Therapy Treat Brain Cancer?

Brain Tumors are Cognitive Parasites – How Brain Cancer Hijacks Neural Circuits and Causes Cognitive Decline

Researchers have long known that brain tumors, specifically a type of tumor called a glioma, can affect a person’s cognitive and physical function. Patients with glioblastoma, the most fatal type of brain tumor in adults, experience an especially drastic decline in quality of life. Glioblastomas are thought to impair normal brain functions by compressing and causing healthy tissue to swell, or competing with them for blood supply.

What exactly causes cognitive decline in brain tumor patients is still unknown. In our recently published research, we found that tumors can not only remodel neural circuits, but that brain activity itself can fuel tumor growth.

This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of, Saritha Krishna, Postdoctoral Fellow in Neurological Surgery, University of California, San Francisco, and Shawn Hervey-Jumper, Associate Professor of Neurological Surgery, University of California, San Francisco.

We are a neuroscientist and neurosurgeon team at the University of California, San Francisco. Our work focuses on understanding how brain tumors remodel neuronal circuits and how these changes affect language, motor and cognitive function. We discovered a previously unknown mechanism brain tumors use to hijack and modify brain circuitry that causes cognitive decline in patients with glioma.

Brain Tumors in Dialogue with Surrounding Cells

When we started this study, scientists had recently found that a self-perpetuating positive feedback loop powers brain tumors. The cycle begins when cancer cells produce substances that can act as neurotransmitters, proteins that help neurons communicate with each other. This surplus of neurotransmitters triggers neurons to become hyperactive and secrete chemicals that stimulate and accelerate the proliferation and growth of the cancer cells.

We wondered how this feedback loop affects the behavior and cognition of people with brain cancer. To study how glioblastomas engage with neuronal circuits in the human brain, we recorded the real-time brain activity of patients with gliomas as they were shown pictures of common objects or animals and asked to name what they depicted while they were undergoing brain surgery to remove the tumor.

While the patients engaged in these tasks, the language networks in their brains were activated as expected. However, we found that the brain regions the tumors had infiltrated quite remote from known language zones of the brain were also activated during these tasks. This unexpected finding shows that tumors can hijack and restructure connections in the brain tissue surrounding them and increase their activity.

This may account for the cognitive decline frequently associated with the progression of gliomas. However, by directly recording the electrical activity of the brain using electrocorticography, we showed that despite being hyperactive, these remote brain regions had significantly reduced computational power. This was especially the case for processing more complex, less commonly used words, such as “rooster,” in comparison with simple, more commonly used words, such as “car.” This meant that brain cells entangled in the tumor are so compromised that they need to recruit additional cells to carry out tasks previously controlled by a smaller defined area.

We make an analogy to an orchestra. The musicians need to play in synchrony for the music to work. When you lose the cellos and the woodwinds, the remaining musicians can’t deliver the piece as effectively as when all players are present. Similarly, when brain tumors hijack the areas surrounding it, the brain is less able to effectively function.

Gabapentin as a Promising Drug for Glioblastoma

Now we understood that tumors can impair cognition by affecting neural connections. Next, we further examined their connections with each other and with healthy neurons using mouse models and brain organoids, which are clusters of brain cells grown in a Petri dish.

These experiments, led by one of us, Saritha Krishna, found that tumor cells secrete a protein called thrombospondin-1 that plays a key role in promoting the hyperactivity of brain cells. We wondered whether blocking this protein, which normally helps neurons form synapses, would halt tumor growth and extend the survival of mice with glioblastoma.

Glioma cells could potentially be treated by repurposing the anti-seizure drug gabapentin. Castro Lab, Michigan Medicine/NIH via Flickr, CC BY-NC

To test this hypothesis, we treated mice with a common anti-seizure drug called gabapentin that blocks thrombospondin-1. We found that gabapentin was able to keep the brain tumors from expanding for several months. These findings highlight the potential of repurposing this existing drug to control brain tumor growth.

Our study suggests that targeting the communication between healthy brain cells and cancer cells could offer another way to treat brain cancer. Combining gabapentin with other conventional therapies could complement existing treatments, helping mitigate cognitive decline and potentially improving survival. We are now exploring new ways to take advantage of this drug’s potential to halt tumor growth. Our goal is to ultimately translate the findings of our study to clinical trials in people.

Did IBM Just Flip-Flop on AI and Job Losses?

Regulation on Artificial Intelligence Innovation is Dumb, Says IBM CEO

Is IBM’s CEO flip-flopping on the impact of artificial Intelligence on jobs? What are his thoughts on AI regulation? In an interview with Bloomberg last month, IBM’s CEO Arvind Krishna said his company would slow or suspend hiring because he expects about 30% of nearly 26,000 positions could be replaced by AI over a five-year period at his company, that was calculated as 7,800 supplanted by AI. In a new interview this month with Barron’s, Krishna addresses the expected impact on jobs and makes light of the idea that humanity is at great risk from AI technology.

Spoiler Alert, AI is Good

AI will actually create, not destroy jobs – and it is not going to destroy the world. This is the view of IBM’s CEO Krishna, discussing artificial Intelligence in a feature with Barron’s published in the most recent Tech Trader column.

Addressing AI job loss, which he has been quoted as expecting, at least for IBM, the blue-chip CEO says he’s somewhat irritated about a recent flurry of news stories that quoted him as saying that IBM could replace 7,800 workers with AI software. Krishna says his comments were taken out of context. He tried to set the record straight explaining, that he actually said was that over the next five years, 30% to 50% of repetitive white-collar jobs could be replaced by AI. He also added the bottom end of the range was most likely. The number used in the reporting came from his response to a follow-up question with the Bloomberg reporter. Krishna was asked how many IBM employees meet the description, he estimated 10%. The math, based on IBM’s workforce, was used to come up with 7,800 employees.

The IBM CEO says the calculation left out another key piece of information.

“I also said that AI is going to create more jobs than it takes away,” Krishna said, “the same way that the agricultural revolution and the services revolution created way more jobs than those that got taken away.” He says we will need new “prompt engineers” to lever AI tools, and more fact-checking to address the accelerated creation of misinformation that he thinks will inevitably accompany the creation of AI tools.

Are Their AI Risks?

On humanity’s risks from AI and potential regulation, the IBM CEO explained, the assertion by some that AI represents an existential threat to humanity—that there’s a risk that AI gets smarter than humans, and then somehow wipes us off the face of the Earth, is bunk – or highly unlikely.

“I’m not there fundamentally,” he said. “It seems like a pretty big stretch. These things are great at memorization and pattern matching. They don’t yet have a knowledge representation. They don’t have any symbolic manipulation. They do math by memory, not by understanding math. There are a lot of things that are yet to be done,” said Krishna.

It was noted in the interview that some people are using nightmare scenarios to make a case for strict regulation of artificial Intelligence and machine learning. While he agrees all should be careful about how and where they use AI, he doesn’t think aggressive regulation is called for. He even believes that any US regulation would cause cheaters within the States or competitive countries, without the imposition of US regulation, to move forward as they see appropriate.

“We don’t want to have regulation on innovation. That’s dumb actually,” said Krishna. “All you are going to do is give an advantage to those who choose to ignore the regulation and those who work outside the US boundaries.”

An AI Quantum Leap?

Quantum computing is a rapidly-emerging technology that harnesses the laws of quantum mechanics to solve problems too complex for classical computers. IBM is a leader in this field. As it relates to the potential combination of AI and quantum computing Krishna thinks we are close to the day when quantum computing will mesh with AI, and open new areas of computing power.

Krishna suggested that to explore benefits of this, one might want to consider the future of the chemical and pharmaceutical industry. “Maybe we go through reading all the literature—that’s AI—and we find some gaps in knowledge,” he says. “Today you fill in those gaps by doing a wet lab experiment which might take three to six months or more. In three to five years, a quantum computer will be able to simulate those experiments and fill in the gaps in a few minutes,” he said.

A key power of quantum computing is its ability to work on vast amounts of data at the same time. Looking further out, perhaps a decade, Krishna expects that quantum computers will be able to create AI models. “Current models with hundreds of billions of parameters can take two to three months to train on a very large cluster of GPUs. With a quantum computer, you’ll be able to train the same model overnight,” he said. His expectation is, “You’ll be able to solve problems that are far beyond what the biggest supercomputers in the world can do now.”

Take Away

As part of his position as CEO of IBM, Arvind Krishna has a window seat to much of the cutting-edge changes in computing technology, including artificial Intelligence. He suggests he was not fully quoted in the article that Bloomberg did covering AI and that the technology is expected to create jobs. It may, however alter available occupations while creating new needs.

He is not in the camp that massive regulation is needed to keep the innovative technology at bay; Krishna believes creative development is best when there is a level playing field.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ai-stocks-dividend-ibm-99e61b50?mod=article_inline

https://www.barrons.com/articles/ai-jobs-ibm-ceo-94a6537d?mod=Searchresults

https://www.ibm.com/topics/quantum-computing

Why Small Cap Stocks Started to Attract Mega Cap Investors

Small Cap Companies Making June 2023 a Whole New Race

June is shaping up to be the month when small-cap stocks are the stocks to watch. This investment news is based on the huge lead they have taken since the opening bell on Friday June 2nd. The Russell 2000 index tracks U.S. small-cap stocks. While the index is up less than 3% in 2023, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 12%, and Nasdaq is up almost 27%, historically, the average return over time is expected to be greater for small-caps. In order for the averages to come back in line with historical norms, the large-cap stocks either have to begin trending down, the small-caps upward, or maybe a little of both. There is new reason to believe that now is the time that small-caps are finally getting back into the race.

The Russell Small-Cap Index, which is made up of the lowest 2,000 companies in terms of market cap of the broader Russell 3000, was up 3.6% on Friday, June 2nd; it gave up 1.1% on the following Monday, then rallied on Tuesday, June 6th by 2.8%. Meanwhile, the other indexes stalled. Friday’s gains were its largest one-day increase in six months, and Tuesday represents its biggest gain since early March.

Both large-cap indexes attribute their gains to the high-flying mega-cap tech stocks. Much of the non-tech portions of these indexes are not contributing to the year’s great performance. Some analysts are beginning to express concern that Nasdaq valuations are stretched. In contrast, price/earnings ratios on many small-cap stocks are below historical norms.

What’s more, is the earnings per share (EPS) is beginning to be revised upward, “small caps are finally starting to participate in the EPS revisions recovery,” said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a research note Monday. “The rate of upward EPS estimate revisions has moved up to 50% for the Russell 2000,” she said, adding that more than half the sectors in the index are “now in positive revisions territory for both EPS and revenues.”

Source: Koyfin


Calvarisa highlighted these sectors: utilities, consumer staples, healthcare, industrials, communications services, information technology, and TIMT (technology, internet, media and telecommunications), saying they have both positive EPS and revenue revisions among the small-caps.

Another interesting reason for the promise of small-caps stealing the show in June, according to the RBC research, small-cap stocks usually bottom three to six months before EPS forecasts start rising again.

The introduction of artificial intelligence (AI), from primarily small market cap companies and how the new technology can help with online research and creative inspiration, has placed investors in megacap stocks like Google and Microsoft on notice. They now know that a younger superior technology may disrupt a large part of these tech giants’ business. Not dissimilar to what they had done as small companies a few decades earlier.

Take Away

June is always an exciting month for companies with small market cap as the Russell 3000 index reconstitution also reshapes the small-cap Russell 2000 during June. Many self-directed investors try to front-run the institutions that are required to own or eliminate stocks from their portfolios. Price movements can be large.

The excitement is being compounded by the fear creeping in among large-cap investors, EPS revisions, and of course the reversion to mean average performance of large-cap stocks, to small-caps.  

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230606265/small-cap-stocks-are-surging-tuesday-as-broader-us-market-sleeps-heres-why

https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230605260/small-cap-stocks-lag-in-2023-but-heres-where-theyre-finally-starting-to-see-positive-earnings-revisions

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/06/02/small-caps-are-benefitting-from-the-value-trade-catchup-says-rbcs-lori-calvasina.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

https://app.koyfin.com/share/09d4d3eaad

An Investor List of the Industries that Can be Improved With Blockchain Technology

Blockchain Beyond Cryptocurrency: The Potential of Distributed Ledger Technology

Does blockchain have a future beyond crypto? Since its beginning as the underlying technology for Bitcoin (BTC) and later other cryptocurrencies, blockchain has been the necessary, behind-the-scenes, engine that allow these fintech currencies to function. Dogecoin (DOGE), Ethereum (ETH), and even the 18 G20 countries developing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) need blockchain to exist.  

But what non-finance industries are being impacted or will be disrupted by blockchain? It is not with exaggeration to say blockchain has the power to revolutionize various industries and redefine everyday transactions, manage data, and establish trust. Long-term investing requires knowledge of current trends and where the future may take them. Below we explore many of the possibilities of blockchain aside from cryptocurrency and delve into its promising future.

What is Blockchain?

At its core, blockchain is a decentralized (no single control) and immutable (unable to be changed) ledger that records activity across multiple computers. This distributed character replaces the need for institutional intermediaries to ensure transparency, security, and efficiency. A person or an entity can function, even across borders directly, without the need for a middleman. Verification of activity is recorded and remains a part of a blockchain ledger.

Uses beyond cryptocurrency, or the speculative investment that crypto and non-fungible tokens (NFT) have become, include health care, finance, voting, real estate titles, and smart communities.

Health Care

The HIPAA Privacy Rule sets national standards to protect individuals’ medical records and other identifiable health information. It applies to health plans, healthcare clearinghouses, and healthcare providers that conduct certain medical transactions electronically. The purpose is to keep data ownership from improperly being passed and to maintain privacy in the industry. Current centralized systems are not able to meet the many needs of patients, health service providers, insurance companies, and governmental agencies. Blockchain technology enables a decentralized system for access control of medical records where all stakeholders’ interests are protected.

Blockchain systems not only allow healthcare service providers to securely share patients’ medical records but patients may also track who has accessed their records and determine who is authorized to do so. If blockchain-driven, all transactions can become transparent to the patient.

And blockchain-powered interoperability can enable the seamless sharing of medical data between healthcare organizations, improving patient care, research, and drug development.

Supply Chain Management

Complex global supply chains involve numerous stakeholders, some sending, others receiving, and others verifying the source of food or products. Verifying the authenticity and improving traceability of products can be a challenging task. Blockchain’s ability to create an immutable record of every transaction and movement along the supply chain enables transparency and accountability. A company will be able to securely track the origin, manufacturing process, and movement of goods. Consumers can be equipped with verified information, among other benefits, this will increase trust and reduce the risk of receiving counterfeit products.

Storing information regarding movement on a blockchain improves integrity, accountability and traceability. For example, IBM’s Food Trust uses a blockchain system to track food items from the field to retailers. The participants in the food supply chain record transactions in the shared blockchain, which simplifies keeping track.

Entertainment Products

As technology has allowed greater reproduction and distribution, including music and art, blockchain may provide creators with more control over their work. The whole entertainment industry may undergo a significant transformation with blockchain technology. Artists can tokenize their efforts, creating a digital certificate of ownership that can be bought, sold, and shared on blockchain platforms. This will enable artists to have tight control over their intellectual property, receive fair compensation, and even establish a direct connection with their followers. Beyond ownership infringement, blockchain can facilitate transparent royalty distribution, this could ensure that artists receive their rightful earnings without an intermediary and the cost that comes with anyone getting in the middle of a transaction.

The Energy Sector

Blockchain is likely to play a transformative role in all forms of energy. As renewable energy sources continue their trend, blockchain can enable peer-to-peer energy trading. Individuals and organizations will be able to directly exchange surplus energy with those expecting an energy deficit. This could create a decentralized energy market.

Smart contracts executed on the blockchain can automatically verify and settle transactions, ensuring transparency. This democratization of energy, if broadly implemented, could accelerate the adoption of sustainable practices, provide energy where needed, and reduce waste.

Governments

While the government is often the intermediary that the blockchain makes less needed or unneeded, recognizing the potential of blockchain to enhance transparency and efficiency in public services may become its greatest use. Land registries, taxation, voting systems, and identity certainty can all be improved through blockchain’s tracking and tamper-resistant design. Immutable records of land ownership can reduce disputes and increase trust in property transactions. Digital identities stored on a blockchain can streamline processes such as passport verification and border control, making them more secure and efficient. Blockchain-based voting systems have the potential to eliminate voter fraud, ensuring fair and transparent elections.

Potential

Much of what is described above has either barely been implemented or has not been put to use. This is a period in any technological advancement when most long-term investors would like to be involved. Efficiencies and improved products are poised to help the industries mentioned, and pure blockchain companies, large and small, can benefit from developing uses for their technology.

Despite its potential, blockchain technology still faces challenges. Scalability, energy consumption, and regulatory frameworks require further development and refinement. However, ongoing research and collaborations among businesses, academia, industry, and policymakers are actively finding avenues around these concerns, driving the maturation of blockchain technology.

Take Away

Blockchain is still in its infancy, and industries are just becoming aware of its power to help them. As the paradigm shifts, it could become a technology businesses could not imagine doing without. Blockchain’s decentralized, transparent, and secure nature makes it a powerful tool for revolutionizing healthcare, supply chain management, entertainment, governing, and energy sectors. As the technology evolves, we can expect innovative use and widespread adoption of blockchain that serves to elevate trust, efficiency, and transparency. And maybe the now-developed cryptocurrencies will survive within these changes.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.investopedia.com/tech/forget-bitcoin-blockchain-future/

https://www.hhs.gov/hipaa/for-professionals/privacy/index.html

https://www.ibm.com/products/supply-chain-intelligence-suite/food-trust

https://www.investopedia.com/10-biggest-blockchain-companies-5213784

SEC Charges Against Binance and Binance’s Sharp Response

Gary Gensler’s SEC  Files 13 Charges Against Changpeng Zhao and His Company Binance

In a pair of press releases, one from the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the other from Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, there were charges, allegations and answers fired back and forth. The SEC named the founder and CEO of Binance, Changpeng Zhao as a defendant in the suit. Binance quickly shot back how disappointed Binance is that 13 complaints were filed against the company.

Allegations

The SEC press release indicates that they are suing Binance and founder Changpeng Zhao for misusing customers’ funds and for diverting funds to a trading entity that Zhao controlled called Sigma Chain. It further charges Sigma Chain for engaging in fraudulent trading that made Binance’s volume appear larger than it actually was.

Among the charges, Binance is also supposed to have concealed that it commingled billions of dollars in customer assets, sending them to a third-party, Merit Peak, which was owned by Zhao.  

The SEC filed the case in federal court in the District of Columbia. Binance engaged in “blatant disregard of the federal securities laws and the investor and market protections these laws provide,” the regulator wrote in its court complaint.

Source: SEC.Gov

Binance Response

Binance said in a written statement that it intends to defend its platform and denied allegations that user assets on the Binance.US platform were ever at risk. “All user assets on Binance and Binance affiliate platforms, including Binance.US, are safe and secure, and we will vigorously defend against any allegations to the contrary,” the company said. Binance.US also said it would defend itself against the litigation.

Source: PRNewswire

Binance alleges that because of their size, they are a target for the US regulator. The company expressed concerns through a press release that despite cooperating with the SEC, that a reasonable amount of time was not given on the most recent 26 different requests, and that they may have been intentionally burdensome. Binance said that despite its willingness to do whatever was necessary to address the US regulator’s concerns and take whatever reasonable steps they could, the SEC would not share any evidence it might have regarding its purported concerns, and the SEC rejected attempts at engagement, instead going straight to court. “It is now clear to us that the SEC’s goal here was never to protect investors, as the SEC has claimed—if that were indeed the case, the SEC would have thoughtfully engaged with us on the facts and in our efforts to demonstrate the safety and security of the Binance,” according to a company statement.

Channelchek will continue to follow and report on major news impacting this case and others of interest to the investment world. Various sources indicate that there does not appear to be any type of a run by customers from Binance, there are some reports that it is business as usual. Register here to receive our daily emails.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

The Week Ahead –  Debt Limit Clouds Lift

This Week Will Feature Few Economic Releases and a Focus on Next Weeks FOMC

The week ahead is quiet on the economic release front. And there won’t be any market moving Fed president addresses to keep the market on its toes; the Fed members are in a blackout period leading up to next week’s June 13-14 FOMC meeting.

The markets can also stop talking about whether the US will default on debt as the short end of the fixed-income market will have to adjust to a sudden but short-lived increase in US Treasury bills.

Monday 6/5

  • 10:00 AM ET, Factory Orders are expected to have risen 0.8 percent in April versus March’s 0.9 percent rise. Durable Goods Orders for April, which have already been released and are one of two major components of this report, rose 1.1 percent on the month. Factory Orders are a leading indicator, it represents the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods.
  • 10:00 AM ET, The Institute for Supply Management Services (ISM Services) is expected to be relatively steady at 52 for May after a 51.9 print in April.

Tuesday 6/6

  • Nothing Scheduled

Wednesday 6/7

  • 8:30 PM ET, International Trade in Goods and Services is expected to show a deficit of $75.4 billion for April for total goods and services trade which would compare with a $64.2 billion deficit in March. Advance data on the goods side of April’s report showed a very large $12.1 billion deepening in the deficit.
  • 10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be providing its scheduled weekly information on petroleum inventories, whether produced in the US or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.
  • 3:00 PM ET, Consumer Credit is expected to have increased by $21.0 billion in April versus an increase of $26.5 billion in March. This report has surprised on the high side the last three months.

Thursday 6/8

  • 8:30 AM ET, Jobless claims for the week ending June 3 are expected to have increased to 240,000 versus 232,000 in the prior week. This has been a very closely watched report as it is expected it has indicated the Fed has room to tighten further if other data remain too strong.
  • 10:00 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories will be released as a second estimate before the final. The second estimate for April is expected to be a 0.2 percent decline, unchanged from the first estimate. Wholesale trade measures the dollar value of sales made and inventories held by merchant wholesalers. It is a component of business sales and inventories  Corporate Profits are pulled from the national income and product accounts (NIPA) and are presented in different forms.
  • 4:30 PM ET, The Federal Reserve’s  Balance Sheet has attracted additional attention as it is a good indicator of whether it is following its quantitative tightening plan, and whether there has been a significant change in banks looking to the Fed, which may mean trouble in the sector. For the week ending June 7, the Federal Reserve is expected to hold assets worth $8.386 trillion. This would be a week-on-week decline of $50.4 billion. All non-cash assets can be viewed as money that at one time was  injected into the economy as stimulation.            

Friday 6/9

  • 10:00 AM ET, The Quarterly Services Survey focuses on information and technology-related service industries. These include information; professional, scientific and technical services; administrative & support services; and waste management and remediation services. Services revenue is expected to have increased by 2.9%.

What Else

The key factors that the Fed will consider when making their decision next week at the FOMC meeting are the pace and trend of economic growth, the level of inflation, the strength of the labor market, and the risk of recession.

Additionally, the FOMC will have to determine if the moves to date will have a more substantial impact over time. Currently, inflation is not coming down, jobs are abundant relative to job seekers, and the risk of a recession over the next two quarters seems low. For these reasons, some believe the Fed will remain hawkish yet pause for this meeting. However, next week during the first day of the two-day meeting CPI (consumer inflation) will be released. It would be premature to forecast a Fed decision until the contents of that report are known.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

More Proof There is Significant Value in Biotech Stocks

Another Sign Conditions are Improving for Biotech Stocks

Biotech stocks seem to be exhibiting unusual value for any stock segment. A subset of the healthcare sector, biotechnology includes companies researching, and developing what may be the next-generation medical preventatives and treatments. There had been a huge decline in interest in the segment that coincided with FDA approval of the first Covid19 vaccine in late Summer 2021. Since then, the average price has been more than cut in half (see XBI/IBB chart) for biotechs.

The chart below is the S&P SPDR Biotech ETF and iShares Biotech ETF. They represent 280 stocks. According to an article in Barron’s dated June 4, 2023, of these, 23 (almost 10%) are trading below enterprise value (EV). Many more are on the cusp of trading right at the value of their net assets. For example, the article mentioned Atea Pharmaceuticals (AVIR), a biotech developing antiviral therapeutics for Hep-C and Covid. “If you bought all Atea’s shares and paid off all of its debt, the cash and other liquid assets remaining on its balance sheet would be worth more than what you spent,” wrote Barron’s.

Source: Koyfin

Of the 280 stocks, nearly 60 have enterprise values below $100 million – the current conditions are not sustainable. At some point, the “invisible hand” of the market is will work to correct it. Last week, Atea, which had been trading near $3.70 recently, was offered $5.75 per share. Concentra Biosciences, which is controlled by the investment fund Tang Capital Partners, made the offer with some contingencies tied to licenses or sales of Atea’s products.

The peculiar condition of the market valuing biotech companies below EV or even cash came to my attention at a RoadShow that was arranged by Noble Capital Markets that featured Cocrystal Pharma (COCP). Cocrystal has several products advancing toward clinical milestones. It was presented by a member of Cocrystals executive management team in South Florida. While the myself and the other investors became familiar with COCP’s development pipeline, and data like the rate of cash usage, the amount of cash on hand, and the market value, it became quite apparent the company had far more cash than the amount the stock market had priced the entire company. And at its cash burn rate (amount of cash used to cover expenses each month), that there might be a significant valuation disconnect.

Many believe disconnects like this will be resolved as the markets always are seeking value and seemingly mispriced companies. There are already many examples this in 2023 as big pharma either has partnered with, or outright acquired companies. This, of course, can cause the stock prices to skyrocket. In fact, while the news was focused on Silicon Valley Bank last March, Provention Bio (PRVB) shot up 258% after a deal was announced.

Smaller biotechs need money to spend on developing drugs, and can’t rely on product sales. Even with what might seem like a huge war-chest of cash, low market values have stifled the ability to raise new money. The road to the next wonder drug is long and requires management to take comfort that they can secure funds when needed.

The extent of this challenge is unique to each company. For many, since the biotech segment valuations came down from the pandemic-inspired dizzying heights,  they might have cash, but not enough to go an extended period until funding conditions improve. The offer last week by Concentra is a sign that conditions are changing. It isn’t just pharmaceutical companies shopping now for biotech bargains to own, it seems investment partnerships are also recognizing the extreme value in some companies.

For data and current information on almost 250 biotech companies, visit the biotech industry section here, on Channelchek.  

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.barrons.com/articles/biotechs-negative-enterprise-values-5e289e8e?mod=Searchresults

How to Keep AI on the Right Path

How Can Congress Regulate AI? Erect Guardrails, Ensure Accountability and Address Monopolistic Power

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman urged lawmakers to consider regulating AI during his Senate testimony on May 16, 2023. That recommendation raises the question of what comes next for Congress. The solutions Altman proposed – creating an AI regulatory agency and requiring licensing for companies – are interesting. But what the other experts on the same panel suggested is at least as important: requiring transparency on training data and establishing clear frameworks for AI-related risks.

Another point left unsaid was that, given the economics of building large-scale AI models, the industry may be witnessing the emergence of a new type of tech monopoly.

This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Anjana Susarla, Professor of Information Systems, Michigan State University.

As a researcher who studies social media and artificial intelligence, I believe that Altman’s suggestions have highlighted important issues but don’t provide answers in and of themselves. Regulation would be helpful, but in what form? Licensing also makes sense, but for whom? And any effort to regulate the AI industry will need to account for the companies’ economic power and political sway.

An Agency to Regulate AI?

Lawmakers and policymakers across the world have already begun to address some of the issues raised in Altman’s testimony. The European Union’s AI Act is based on a risk model that assigns AI applications to three categories of risk: unacceptable, high risk, and low or minimal risk. This categorization recognizes that tools for social scoring by governments and automated tools for hiring pose different risks than those from the use of AI in spam filters, for example.

The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology likewise has an AI risk management framework that was created with extensive input from multiple stakeholders, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Federation of American Scientists, as well as other business and professional associations, technology companies and think tanks.

Federal agencies such as the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and the Federal Trade Commission have already issued guidelines on some of the risks inherent in AI. The Consumer Product Safety Commission and other agencies have a role to play as well.

Rather than create a new agency that runs the risk of becoming compromised by the technology industry it’s meant to regulate, Congress can support private and public adoption of the NIST risk management framework and pass bills such as the Algorithmic Accountability Act. That would have the effect of imposing accountability, much as the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and other regulations transformed reporting requirements for companies. Congress can also adopt comprehensive laws around data privacy.

Regulating AI should involve collaboration among academia, industry, policy experts and international agencies. Experts have likened this approach to international organizations such as the European Organization for Nuclear Research, known as CERN, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The internet has been managed by nongovernmental bodies involving nonprofits, civil society, industry and policymakers, such as the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers and the World Telecommunication Standardization Assembly. Those examples provide models for industry and policymakers today.

Licensing Auditors, Not Companies

Though OpenAI’s Altman suggested that companies could be licensed to release artificial intelligence technologies to the public, he clarified that he was referring to artificial general intelligence, meaning potential future AI systems with humanlike intelligence that could pose a threat to humanity. That would be akin to companies being licensed to handle other potentially dangerous technologies, like nuclear power. But licensing could have a role to play well before such a futuristic scenario comes to pass.

Algorithmic auditing would require credentialing, standards of practice and extensive training. Requiring accountability is not just a matter of licensing individuals but also requires companywide standards and practices.

Experts on AI fairness contend that issues of bias and fairness in AI cannot be addressed by technical methods alone but require more comprehensive risk mitigation practices such as adopting institutional review boards for AI. Institutional review boards in the medical field help uphold individual rights, for example.

Academic bodies and professional societies have likewise adopted standards for responsible use of AI, whether it is authorship standards for AI-generated text or standards for patient-mediated data sharing in medicine.

Strengthening existing statutes on consumer safety, privacy and protection while introducing norms of algorithmic accountability would help demystify complex AI systems. It’s also important to recognize that greater data accountability and transparency may impose new restrictions on organizations.

Scholars of data privacy and AI ethics have called for “technological due process” and frameworks to recognize harms of predictive processes. The widespread use of AI-enabled decision-making in such fields as employment, insurance and health care calls for licensing and audit requirements to ensure procedural fairness and privacy safeguards.

Requiring such accountability provisions, though, demands a robust debate among AI developers, policymakers and those who are affected by broad deployment of AI. In the absence of strong algorithmic accountability practices, the danger is narrow audits that promote the appearance of compliance.

AI Monopolies?

What was also missing in Altman’s testimony is the extent of investment required to train large-scale AI models, whether it is GPT-4, which is one of the foundations of ChatGPT, or text-to-image generator Stable Diffusion. Only a handful of companies, such as Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft, are responsible for developing the world’s largest language models.

Given the lack of transparency in the training data used by these companies, AI ethics experts Timnit Gebru, Emily Bender and others have warned that large-scale adoption of such technologies without corresponding oversight risks amplifying machine bias at a societal scale.

It is also important to acknowledge that the training data for tools such as ChatGPT includes the intellectual labor of a host of people such as Wikipedia contributors, bloggers and authors of digitized books. The economic benefits from these tools, however, accrue only to the technology corporations.

Proving technology firms’ monopoly power can be difficult, as the Department of Justice’s antitrust case against Microsoft demonstrated. I believe that the most feasible regulatory options for Congress to address potential algorithmic harms from AI may be to strengthen disclosure requirements for AI firms and users of AI alike, to urge comprehensive adoption of AI risk assessment frameworks, and to require processes that safeguard individual data rights and privacy.

Stocks 101: The Basics of Investing in the Stock Market

Need-to-Know for Those Starting to Dip Their Dough into the Stock Market

Maybe you’ve saved a little and know you ought to invest, or maybe school is finally out and you have time and a few dollars to build your future, but you don’t think you know enough about the world of stock market investing. It’s easy to feel overwhelmed by the abundance of information? It’s a big decision with many mysteries and unknowns for both newcomers, and veterans. This article aims to remove much of the mystery for new investors so you can be more confident in building a portfolio that can enhance your life plans.

Whether you become interested in small-cap stocks, growth stocks, or even IPOs, understanding key concepts such as valuing a stock, risk tolerance, investment goals, investment style, risk management, and portfolio strategy is crucial. Let’s dive in!

Set Investment Goals

Clearly defining your investment goals is essential so you can make decisions after comparing them to those goals. Are you investing for retirement, saving for a down payment on a house, or aiming for short-term gains? Your goals will influence the investment strategies you use. For example, if you’re investing for retirement and have decades of working years left, it may mean to buy and mostly hold for a long period stocks that have more potential given a long time horizon. This wouldn’t totally exclude mature companies with large market capitalizations but may include far more small and microcap opportunities than someone that is just a few years from retirement. If you are closer to retirement and don’t have as long for the growth to play out, the strategy may be to invest in large companies with stable dividends. If they throw off enough income, then an allocation of more speculative growth opportunities may make sense. This portfolio portion can allow for further growth.

Define Your Risk Tolerance

Before swimming in the deep end of investing, it’s important to assess your risk tolerance. Ask yourself how comfortable you are with potential fluctuations in stock prices. Small-cap stocks and microcaps, which represent companies with smaller market value, often offer greater growth potential, but they also come with increased volatility. Growth stocks, however, are known for their potential high returns over time, of course this could come with the cost of more volatility (sharp price moves) than established “blue-chip” stocks. Knowing your risk tolerance, or uneasiness with losing, or riding out drawdowns, versus gaining more than the potential loss (risk/reward tolerance) will help you make investment decisions aligned with your comfort level.

Determine Your Investment Style

After assessing your risk tolerance and setting goals, determine your investment style. Some investors prefer a more hands-on approach, engaging in frequent trading and closely monitoring stock market trends and evaluating stocks through websites like Channelchek. Others may prefer a more passive approach, investing in broad-based index funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that provide diversification across various stocks. Understanding your investment style will help shape your overall investment strategy.

Minimizing Risk

Investing inherently involves risk, but there are strategies to help minimize potential losses. One approach is to conduct thorough research on companies you’re considering for investment. This includes analyzing company-sponsored research, equity research reports, and equity analysis provided by reputable sources. Understanding the financial health, competitive advantages, and growth prospects of a company can help you make informed investment decisions.

Developing an Investment Portfolio Strategy

Diversification is considered key when it comes to building an investment portfolio. Investing in a variety of stocks across different sectors and market capitalizations, including small-cap stocks and growth stocks, can help spread risk and potentially increase returns. Consider allocating a portion of your portfolio to IPOs if you have a higher risk appetite. However, it’s important to exercise caution as IPOs can be volatile shortly after their public debut.

Stay Informed

Keeping up with investment news is vital for any investor. Stay updated on market trends, company announcements, and economic indicators that may impact the stock market. Many financial news outlets provide lists of “stocks to watch” or provide insights into market trends. Regularly reviewing investment news and equity research can help you stay informed, make timely investment decisions, and expose you to opportunities you may not have discovered otherwise.

Take Away

Knowing it is time to start building an investment portfolio is a good first step. Now may be the when you should implement, especially if you have a long road ahead of you and financial security is important. It will require careful consideration of your risk tolerance, investment goals, investment style, risk management techniques, and portfolio strategy. Be prepared to conduct research, analyze equity reports, and stay informed about market developments. Investing is ordinarily long-term, patience, discipline, and a well-structured portfolio are key to achieving your financial objectives.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

What Happens to Your Stock Holding When it is Added to a Major Index?

Index Inclusion or Deletion Can Send Shockwaves Through Stocks

With the massive amount of assets in mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that are geared to return the same performance as a major index, there’s been a lot of investor focus on the addition and subtraction of stocks from indexes, especially the widely followed, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell, and Dow Industrials. This is because many institutional investors attempt to mirror the performance of these indexes by buying the same stocks. Some funds are even required by their charter or offering prospectus to hold the same stocks. This produces “unnatural” price movements in companies as they are moved in or out of an index. Self-directed investors, not beholden to a set of investing rules, may find opportunities by recognizing, then positioning themselves before institutions are required to buy or sell a company name.

Rebalancing of the most followed indices is a reality for individual investors, so it’s good to understand the timing and dynamics, and valuing a stock based on what stock index it may be in.

Dynamics

When a stock is added to a broad index, millions or billions of investment dollars flow into that stock, typically driving its price higher. And the reverse is also true; when a stock is removed from an index, it’s often sold by fund managers, which decreases demand and causes its price to weaken. There are conflicting studies that in some cases, indicate the added strength by inclusion is short-lived, and others that indicate that the stock begins to trade with an emphasis on whether or not money is flowing into the index it is included in, or out. All studies agree that there is typically an initial change in the stock’s valuation.    

       

Timing

When a stock is added to a major index, as will happen with the Russell 3000, Russell 2000, and Russell 1000 on June 27,  it has historically had positive effects on its trading demand, this has impacted its price. As the Russell will reshuffle, or in their jargon “reconstitute” its indexes this month (June) let’s use the Russell 2000, which captures the performance of approximately 2,000 small-cap stocks in the United States. Here are the potential impacts of a stock being added to the index:

Price impact is what concerns investors most. The announcement of a stocks addition to an index can lead to a price impact. This is because investors who track the index may need to purchase the stock to align their portfolios with the index composition. The increased demand can push the stock’s price higher.

It could also lead to investor recognition or Increased Visibility. Inclusion in a major index can come with increased visibility and recognition for a company. This can attract the attention of investors, including index funds, mutual funds, and other institutional investors who track or invest in the index. As a result, the stock may experience increased trading volume and better liquidity.

Institutional buying may increase. Index funds and other institutional investors that track the Russell 2000 (or other indices) may need to purchase the stock to replicate the index’s performance. This can lead to increased buying pressure from these large investors, potentially driving the stock’s price higher.

A nod by an index can bring overall positive sentiment. Being added to a major index can create a positive sentiment around a stock, signaling that the company is growing and gaining prominence. This positive sentiment may attract additional investors who believe the stock’s inclusion in the index validates its prospects, potentially leading to further price appreciation.

Trading Activity usually escalates with inclusion. Inclusion in the Russell 2000 can result in increased trading activity as the stock becomes part of a widely tracked benchmark. More market participants are likely to trade the stock, increasing its overall trading volume.

When Are the Other (Non-Russell) Indexes Rebalanced?

While the FTSE Russell has a strict and easily understood set of rules and guidelines that make it easy to understand, the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq also rebalance under their own timeline.

The S&P 500 is reviewed and rebalanced on a quarterly basis. During these reviews, S&P Dow Jones Indices assess the constituents of the index and consider changes based on the selection criteria and market developments. They don’t follow hard and strict rules.

The Nasdaq 100 is a market-capitalization-weighted index that includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market. The index is maintained by Nasdaq, and its rebalancing process involves an annual evaluation to determne eligibility, and potential rebalancing.

The annual evaluation involves Nasdaq reviewing the composition of the Nasdaq 100, this typically occurs in December. During this evaluation, companies are assessed based on their market capitalization, liquidity, and other factors. The top 100 eligible companies by market capitalization become or remain constituents of the index. They must be traded n the Nasdaq exchange.

Eligibility for companies is determined by their meeting certain criteria to allow inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. These include being listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market, having a minimum average daily trading volume, and meeting liquidity requirements.

If rebalancing is necessary, Nasdaq conducts this during an annual rebalancing in December. Companies that no longer meet the eligibility criteria may be removed, and new companies that meet the criteria may be added. The weightings of the index constituents may also be adjusted based on their market caps.

The Dow 30, also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), is a price-weighted index that represents the performance of 30 large, publicly traded companies in the United States. The index is maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices, and its rebalancing process is different from market-capitalization-weighted indices like the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100. It includes price weighting and selective changes.

Price-weighted for the Dow 30 index is based on the stock prices of its constituents rather than their market capitalizations. The impact investors should be aware of is that higher-priced stocks have a larger impact on the index’s movements.

Selective changes is best defined knowing the Dow 30 does not undergo regular rebalancing like other indices. Instead, changes in the index composition are infrequent and typically occur when a constituent company experiences a significant corporate action, such as a merger, acquisition, or bankruptcy. When such changes occur, the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices makes a decision to replace the affected company with another suitable candidate.

It’s important to note that the impact of being added to an index can vary depending on factors such as the stock’s size, liquidity, and investor sentiment. Additionally, market conditions and investor behavior can influence the stock’s performance. Therefore, while inclusion in a major index can have positive effects, it doesn’t guarantee a specific outcome for the stock’s price. And being removed from an index may only create potential.

Take Away

There is activity surrounding stocks as they are added or deleted from a major market index. Investors should be aware of when the index is being reconstituted or altered, so they may either benefit, stand clear, or be sure that they are not in harms way. The Russell indexes will be reconstituted at the close of the last Friday of this month (June).

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

https://www.ftserussell.com/

What Investors in Stocks Can Learn from Index Investors

Why Aggregate Portfolio Return is More Important than Any Single Holding

Have you ever agonized over a stock in your portfolio that is not performing as you had hoped? While it’s the nature of investing to not bat 1000, it can be hard not to think of the decision to have bought it as a mistake. It probably isn’t. Here is a better way to look at it that uses a recent example (June 1, 2023).

On the first day of June, investors in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) found themselves up 1.17%. That’s a decent run in one day, and since they are focused on the indexed fund that they are invested in as one investment (not 100), they are content and confident.

But what if they owned the underlying 100 stocks in the fund instead? They might be kicking themselves for having bought Lucid (LCID), or 22 other holdings that are down. Using Lucid as an example, it is lower by 15.6% (June 1); the day before it closed at $7.76, and it is only worth $6.55 today.

Ouch? Or no big deal?

The overall blend of the portfolio is up, yet at the same time, 23 holdings are down – no big deal – this is the way portfolio investing works. In fact ten of the stocks in the NDX declined by more than the 1.17% the overall portfolio is up. Most index fund investors just look at one number and don’t look under the hood for reasons to feel remorse (or glee).

Aggregate Return

There are many reasons investors, even professional financial advisors, avoid building a portfolio with individual stocks, but choose index funds. One is not taking responsibility. If you own, or if an investment manager buys a mix of stocks that are in total up a respectable amount, yet some are underperformers, laggards and drags on the overall portfolio performance, there is a feeling of responsibility for the holdings that are down, the dollar amount lost, and the drag on return that is staring them in the face possibly causing sleepless nights.

On this one day, almost 25% of the Nasdaq 100 was down while the index was up 1.17%. The biggest gainer, PDD Holdings (PDD), is only up by half the percentage of LCID’s is selloff. Yet those looking at the aggregate return and not individual return are feeling mighty good about themselves. And that’s good.

If you hold a portfolio of stocks and did your research, whether it be fundamental analysis, technical analysis, industry trends, etc., and understand why every stock is in your portfolio, you could easily be better off if you learn not to agonize over losers. The returns in most of the last five years in index funds have come because of the weighting of the stocks that have gained, not by having more winners. It has become normal for an index that is up on the year to have been carried by just a dozen or so stocks that are in the mix.

Don’t Undermine Your Portfolio

Investors can negatively impact their performance by focusing too much on one stock. When this happens, they can make bad decisions, some of these decisions might be pain-related, others ego, either way, rational decisions are based on investment probabilities, not human emotions, or overthinking; these can ruin good decisions that would have led to improved returns.

Other investors undermine their portfolio differently, by not wanting the responsibility. They buy the index, and they are done – its out of their hands. If average returns are their goal, they’ve succeeded. Or if they are a financial professional and separating themselves from responsibility is the objective, index funds allow them to blame “the market”; it isn’t their fault – they have succeeded.

If an investor can overcome both of these, they can manage their own holdings and be as or more content than an index fund investor. If they follow good portfolio management strategies including, diversification, analysis, research, etc., and then mainly focus on aggregate return, they can make bette decisions and lose less sleep. Individual stocks don’t matter as much when you are purposeful when choosing holdings. Most large indexed funds aren’t purposeful, they aren’t intended to be investments, there makeup is formulaic and meant to mimic the market, not provide stellar returns.  

Take Away

No investor bats 1000. Even top portfolios may have more losers than winners, the key is to have bigger winners and not overreact or over focus on a few holdings. For investors, a portfolio of individual companies can lead to more mental highs and lows as each stock is a personal decision with great expectations. Avoid this by thinking differently. If those one or two stocks don’t perform as expected, think of all the down stocks in all the index funds that the owners aren’t even paying attention to. All these investors are looking at is one number, aggregate return on all the holdings. Maybe you should too.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Source

Nasdaq Market Activity

What Investors Learned in May That They Can Use in June

Looking Back at the Markets in May and Forward to June

Conviction in the overall stock market was weak in May, while enthusiasm for specific sectors was strong. June investors may regain some clarity as markets may be relieved from the debt ceiling dark cloud that kept investors overly cautious. But a renewed fear that the Fed is losing ground to inflation may become the focal point until the coming FOMC meeting. In the meantime, any increase in the debt limit signed into law kicks the can down the road, ongoing increases in borrowing and spending may not haunt the overall market in June, but the path of escalating debt is unsustainable for a healthy U.S. economy.

The next scheduled FOMC meeting is June 13-14. We will have another look at consumer inflation numbers before the June 14 Fed monetary policy decision date CPI (June 13).

While the Fed is wrestling with stubborn inflation, it is keeping an eye on the strong labor markets, which provides leeway and perhaps even a strong reason fo it to continue riding the economic break pedal by being increasingly less accommodative. Although low unemployment is desirable, tight labor markets are helping to drive prices up. The Fed aims to find a better balance.

Image Credit: Koyfin

Look Back

Three broad stock market indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000) are positive on the month of May. The Dow Industrials spent the entire month in negative territory. The Nasdaq 100 was the big winner (+8.7%) on the back of tech stocks as many have been inspired by the earnings performance and stock price performance of Nvidia (NVDA). The S&P 500 (+1.46%) and Russell 2000 (+1.21%) had a good showing putting the Russell 2000 back in positive territory for 2023. The Dow Industrials is negative (-2.30%), leaving this NYSE index down (-.72%) on the year.

During June, inflation showed signs that it was not decelerating but instead could be building strength. While the Fed raised rates by .25% and continued on pace with quantitative tightening, the impact has been seen as a sharp decrease in money supply (M2), but the central banks’ intended effect has not been realized.

Monetary policy is seen as having a lagging effect; that is to say, when the Fed pushes rates up today, it may take a year to work its way into the system to cause slowing and less demand to reduce price increases. Whether the Fed has done enough can only be seen in the rearview mirror months from now.

Source: Koyfin

Market Sector Lookback

Of the 11 S&P market sectors (SPDRs), three were in positive territory as May came to a close. Technology, ticker XLK (+8.85%), was the only sector that showed an increase the previous month as well (.08%). That is followed by Communications Services, ticker XLC (3.92%), and Consumer Discretionary, ticker XLY, (+3.56%).

The S&P 500, which is comprised of the 11 market sectors, was barely positive during the month of May (+56%). 

Of the three worst performers are Industrials, ticker XLI (-3.67%), it faired the best as the industrial sector has been relatively flat on the year. The Materials, ticker XLB, (-6.87%) took a larger hit as commodities prices dropped during the month; this sector was positive on the year going into May. Energy, ticker XLE, (-11.73%) has been volatile during 2023. It is just off its low (-12%) that it reached in mid-March.

Looking Forward

The job market is strong, and inflation, at best, isn’t declining; this makes it more comfortable for the Fed to raise rates. Another way to look at it is it creates a need for them to continue to hammer away to reverse the inflationary trend – and the economic latitude in which to do it.

While the energy sector was the worst performer among S&P 500 sectors, there are factors suggesting the trend could hold until OPEC and Russia begin to work in synch again. Oil prices are near their lowest levels all year, reflecting a drop in global demand, on the output side, since October, OPEC+ was supposed to be reducing production by 3.5 million barrels a day. There are signs that a key country in the alliance isn’t adhering to the announced production cuts. Whether this causes additional “cheating”, or causes the cartel to force members to fall in line remains to be seen.

Technology stocks, particularly those that could possibly benefit from the artificial intelligence revolution, are likely to be among the focus for a while. The sudden broad awareness of what the technology can do has sent investors scrambling for exposure. Whether the potential (AI) is unleashed quickly or the promise of AI now takes a slower road remains to be seen.

The Russell Reconstitution will be complete as of the first Monday in June. The index will have its new components and the portfolio managers of indexed funds ought to own the stocks that were added to the indexes in their funds and sell out of those that are no longer in the funds index. This creates a lot of activity around June 24. When the market opens on June 27, the index with its new makeup will be set.

Take-Away

The market was full of uncertainty in May. Yet three of the four major market indexes were higher. The signing into law of an increased debt ceiling will make one of the most worrisome objections to being involved disappear. This may unleash buyers that were sidelined.

Technology, caused by high expectations of AI was the focus during May; often, hype causes investors to shoot first and aim later. There will be winners and losers in this technology segment, as with any investment; remove yourself from the hype, carefully evaluate the opportunity, and read the professional research, positive and negative, of those you trust.  

By the end of the month we will have two quarters of 2023 behind us, and there are no signs of a recession and little on the horizon to cause U.S. growth to falter quickly enough for there to be a recession this year. It is unlikely the Fed will ease in 2023. It is, however, likely a pause will eventually happen. There are reasons to believe that the pause won’t happen in June.

The axiom, sell in May and walk away is in question. Three of the four major indexes were up in May, so the jury is still out as to whether selling made sense for 2023.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting

Koyfin | Advanced graphing and analytical tools for investors

What Are Hedge Funds, and Why Are They Popular Among Investors?

How Well Do You Know Hedge Funds?

There are many investment vehicles beyond just stock market investing. We hear the names of some of these enough to think we know exactly what they are, but we often realize when asked that we have a hard time defining them. I experienced this recently with a financial adviser I know that was asked what a hedge fund is. She knew that it was a pooled fund (more than one investor) and that it may involve complex strategies that require people to be an accredited investors in most cases, but the Series-7 licensed advisor doesn’t spend much time with alternative investments, so her answer was left incomplete.

There are many hedge fund types all with different strategies; in fact it is a wide-open field. Michael Burry proved this as he created his own way to sell short the subprime mortgage market for his hedge fund before the mortgage meltdown in 2008. So there is no shame in not knowing what a hedge fund is, the strategies are limitless. I referred to the SEC website and spoke with several hedge fund managers I interact with regularly to ensure there were no important gaps missing while writing a hedge fund refresher.

What is a Hedge Fund?

Hedge funds are investment vehicles that pool money from investors with the goal of generating positive returns. They differ from mutual funds in that they typically employ more flexible investment strategies. Many hedge funds aim to profit in various market conditions by engaging in practices such as leverage (borrowing to increase investment exposure), short-selling, and other speculative investment techniques that are less commonly used by mutual funds.

There are a number of different types of hedge funds, each with its own unique strategy. Some of the most common include:

•         Long-Short Equity Funds: These are funds that invest in both long and short positions, meaning they buy stocks they believe will go up in value and sell stocks they believe will go down in value. The balance of the long and short, in theory, moderates risk in the management of many long-short equity funds.

•         Market Neutral Funds: These are funds that look to generate returns for investors that are not correlated to the overall market. They do this by investing in a variety of assets, including stocks, bonds, and derivatives. A market-neutral fund that adapts to any market condition by selecting positions for what is expected in the various markets allows the manager much more leeway than most mutual funds available.

•         Volatility Arbitrage Funds: These funds take advantage of volatility arbitrage which is a trading strategy that attempts to profit from the difference between the forecasted future price volatility of an asset, like a stock, and the implied volatility of options based on that asset. Success at calling the disconnect between the two that yields a profit (arbitrage) is the goal of these fund managers.

•         Merger Arbitrage Funds: These funds trade to benefit from the common price movement experienced when a company announces a merger or acquisition of another public company. Usually, the acquiring company’s price will weaken while the company to be acquired rises. Benefiting from both sides while offsetting overall market risk being both long and short in equities, is how these funds aim to outperform the overall market.

•         Global Macro Funds: are what many investors think of when it comes to hedge funds. The manager can take a view on economic or political events and use derivatives on equities, bonds, currencies and commodities to try to profit from that view. Global macro hedge fund managers may be taking positions on the likely direction of interest rates, the outcome of a significant event, such as a vote to raise the U.S. debt ceiling or anything where they consider the market as not pricing an outcome correctly.

Depending on the size of the assets managed by a hedge fund manager, they may not be required to register or file public reports with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). However, hedge funds are still subject to anti-fraud regulations, and fund managers have a fiduciary duty to the funds they manage.

Who Can Invest?

Hedge funds are generally only accessible to accredited investors, meaning investors who have a net worth of at least $1 million or an annual income of at least $200,000. (there are other criteria that may allow access). This is because hedge funds are considered by the SEC to be high-risk investments.

If you are considering investing in a hedge fund, it is important to do your research and understand the risks involved. You should also make sure that you are comfortable with the investment strategy of the fund.

Downsides Commonly Associated With Hedge Funds

While every fund is unique, there is much overlap in the different types when it comes to the downside associated with many of the varieties. Remember the goal for most of these funds is to make above-market returns – greater returns usually come with a cost.  

•         High Fees: Hedge funds typically charge high fees, which can eat into your returns.

•         High Risk: Hedge funds are considered to be high-risk investments. They can lose money, even in rising markets.

•         Lack of Liquidity: Hedge funds are typically illiquid, meaning it can be difficult to sell your shares if you need to.

If you are considering investing in a hedge fund, it is important to weigh the risks and rewards carefully. Hedge funds can be a good investment for investors who are looking for high returns and diversification. However, they are also high-risk investments and should only be considered by investors who can’t afford to lose their investment.

Evaluating Various Funds

If you’re considering investing in a hedge fund, there are several key areas of information you should seek:

Read the fund’s offering memorandum and related materials: These documents provide essential information about the fund’s investment strategies, its location (U.S. or abroad), risks associated with the investment, fees charged by the manager, expenses borne by the fund, and potential conflicts of interest. It is crucial to thoroughly review these materials before making an investment decision and consider consulting an independent financial advisor.

Understand the fund’s investment strategy. Hedge funds employ a wide range of investment strategies. Some may diversify across multiple strategies, managers, and investments, while others may focus on concentrated positions or a single strategy. It’s important to grasp the level of risk involved in the fund’s strategies and ensure they align with your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. Remember that higher potential returns usually come with higher risks.

Determine if the fund uses leverage or speculative investment techniques: Leverage involves borrowing money to amplify investment potential, but it also increases the risk of losses. Hedge funds may also use derivatives (such as options and futures) and engage in short-selling, which further impact potential gains or losses. Understanding these practices is crucial in evaluating the fund’s risk profile.

Evaluate potential conflicts of interest disclosed by hedge fund managers: It’s important to assess any conflicts of interest that may arise. For instance, if your investment advisor recommends a fund they manage, there may be a conflict since the advisor may earn higher fees from your investment in the hedge fund compared to other potential investments.

Understand how the fund’s assets are valued. Hedge funds may invest in illiquid securities that can be challenging to value. Some funds exercise significant discretion in valuing such securities. It’s essential to understand the fund’s valuation process and the extent to which independent sources validate the valuation. Valuation practices can affect the fees charged by the manager.

Understand that hedge funds do not follow a standardized methodology for calculating performance, and their investments may involve relatively illiquid and hard-to-value securities. In contrast, mutual funds have specific guidelines for calculating and disclosing performance data. When presented with performance data for a hedge fund, inquire about its accuracy, including whether it reflects cash or actual assets received by the fund, and whether it accounts for deductions for fees.

There are ordinarily limitations on taking money out of the fund. Unlike mutual funds, hedge funds typically impose restrictions on redeeming (cashing in) shares. These are usually monthly, quarterly, or annual redemption windows. They may also impose lock-up periods, during which you cannot redeem your shares for a year or more. These limitations mean that the value of your shares can decrease during the redemption process, and redemption fees may apply.

Why Hedge Funds are Popular

The lure of possibly finding a hedge fund manager with a crystal ball is a nice fantasy, but dreaming aside, hedge funds are popular among investors for a number of other reasons.

First, hedge funds have the potential to generate higher returns than traditional investments, such as mutual funds. Second, hedge funds offer investors the opportunity to diversify their portfolios and reduce risk. Third, hedge funds, although not as liquid as SEC-registered mutual funds, are typically more liquid than other alternative investments, such as private equity.

Take Away

Hedge funds offer accredited investors a unique opportunity to potentially earn returns through diverse investment strategies not found in traditional mutual funds. With their focus on generating profits regardless of market direction, hedge funds have become popular due to the potential for higher returns, diversification benefits, customization, and access to unique investment opportunities. However, it is important for investors to thoroughly understand the risks involved, carefully evaluate fund managers, and consider their own investment objectives before considering hedge fund participation.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Source

SEC Investor Bulletin

The Fed – Hedge Funds