Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

Lee Enterprises (LEE) – A Solid Quarter; Reaffirms Full Year Guidance

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 05, 2023

Lee Enterprises, Incorporated provides local news, information, and advertising primarily in midsize markets in the United States. It publishes 49 daily newspapers, as well as offers 300 weekly newspapers and specialty publications in 23 states. The company also provides online advertising and services; and online infrastructure and online publishing services for approximately 1,500 daily and weekly newspapers and shoppers. In addition, it offers commercial printing services. The company has a strategic alliance with Yahoo!, Inc. to provide its classified employment advertising customer base the opportunity to post job listings and other employment products on Yahoo!�s HotJobs national platform. Lee Enterprises, Incorporated was founded in 1890 and is based in Davenport, Iowa.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q2 results. Q2 revenue of $170.7 million, missed our estimate of $173.7 million by 1.7%. While revenue came in slightly lower than expected adj. EBITDA of $14.3 million beat our estimate of $13.5 million by 6.4%. The results benefited from stronger than expected high margin digital subscription revenue. Notably, print cost reductions were enacted late in Q2, resulting in $9 million of savings in the quarter.


Industry leading digital subscriber growth. The company achieved 596,000 digital subscribers and digital revenue now comprises 38% of total revenue. For 13 consecutive quarters, it experienced the fastest digital subscriber growth in the industry, with an impressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49%. It appears to be well on its way to reach its goal of 900,000 digital subscribers and digital revenue comprising 50% of total revenue by 2026.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Haynes International (HAYN) – Favorable Outlook Driven by a Strong Order Backlog

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 05, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Second quarter financial results. Second quarter net income increased 45.6% to $12.3 million, or $0.96 per share (EPS), compared to the prior year period and rose 59.6% compared to the first quarter of fiscal year 2023. We had forecast net income of $12.9 million or $1.02 per share. Revenues of $152.8 million increased 30.5% on a year-over-year basis and grew 15.2% compared to the prior quarter. The estimated impact from raw material volatility during the quarter resulted in a $1.7 million headwind that compressed gross margin by 1.1% to 20.2%. Gross profit of $30.9 million was modestly higher than our estimate of $30.1 million although SG&A and interest expenses were also greater than our projections.

Growing order backlog. Orders during the quarter resulted in a record backlog of $446.7 million as of March 31 and represented a 9.4% increase compared to the prior quarter and a 59.2% increase on a year-over-year basis. Backlog pounds increased 3.9% during the second quarter to approximately 14.1 million pounds and increased 33.1% compared to the prior year period driven by strong demand in the aerospace and industrial gas turbine markets.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Entravision Communications (EVC) – Weathering The Economic Storm Nicely

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 05, 2023

Entravision Communications Corporation is a diversified Spanish-language media company utilizing a combination of television and radio operations to reach Hispanic consumers across the United States, as well as the border markets of Mexico. Entravision owns and/or operates 53 primary television stations and is the largest affiliate group of both the top-ranked Univision television network and Univision’s TeleFutura network, with television stations in 20 of the nation’s top 50 Hispanic markets. The Company also operates one of the nation’s largest groups of primarily Spanish-language radio stations, consisting of 48 owned and operated radio stations.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strong Q1 results. The company reported quarterly revenue of $239 million, 4.4% better than our estimate of $229 million. The quarter was driven by robust digital revenue growth of 28%, notably, Latin America and Asia grew revenues by 15% and 35%, respectively. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $13 million, slightly less than our estimate of $13.5 million, attributed to an increase in variable expenses from digital revenue.

Positive Q2 pacing outlook. Management indicated that its legacy broadcast businesses are pacing down (TV down 9.5% and Radio down roughly 5%), but its Digital revenues are pacing up 25%. In total, Q2 total company revenues are pacing up a strong 19%, indicating that the company is performing nicely in spite of economic headwinds. Second half revenue should benefit from an influx of high margin Political advertising. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

DLH Holdings (DLHC) – Post Call Update

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 05, 2023

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Timing. As we suspected, the top line miss was more a reflection of contract timing, as some awards have been pushed out to the right. We are not concerned as we expect the business eventually will come in. We would point out continued growth in the VA mail order business, with the $20.2 million of revenue in the quarter up 18.1% y-o-y.

Mix. The lower than projected EPS was driven by two items: lower margin than we had expected, mostly due the mix of business in the quarter, and higher interest expense, mostly due to the higher interest rate environment impact on DLH’s variable rate debt.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

ACCO Brands (ACCO) – A Look into the First Quarter

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 05, 2023

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

First Quarter Results. ACCO exceeded top and bottom-line expectations for 1Q23. Revenue was $402.6 million, an 8.8% decrease over last year’s $441.6 million but above our estimate at $390 million. Adverse foreign exchange reduced sales by $10.6 million, or 2.4%. Comparable sales fell 6.4%. Operating income was at $10.1 million compared to $6.8 million the prior year, and the Company reported a net loss of $3.7 million, or a loss of $0.04/sh, compared to a loss of $2.7 million, or $0.03/sh, last year. We estimated operating income of $4 million and net loss of $7.3 million, or $0.08/sh.

Revenue Segments. North America had sales of $176.7 million down from $208.5 million last year, with operating income of $5.2 million compared to $13.9 million. EMEA had sales of $135.8 million compared to $156.1 million and operating income of $7.8 million versus $5.6 million. International had sales of $90.1 million versus $77.0 million last year, with operating income of $9.0 million up from $4.2 million last year.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

DLH Holdings (DLHC) – Releases 2Q23 Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 04, 2023

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2QFY23 Results. DLH reported revenue of $99.4 million compared to $68.9 million the year prior, excluding FEMA contract contribution. GRSi contributed $32.6 million of revenue, indicating the core DLH business saw revenue decline $2.1 million y-o-y. Net income was reported at $0.8 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, versus $7.2 million, or $0.50, last year. EBITDA was at $10.5 million compared with $12.1 million last year, or $6.6 million excluding FEMA.

Focusing In. Although revenue came in lower than our expected $104 million, we believe this to be more a function of some business moving to the right and the challenge in estimating the recently acquired GRSI business. We do not believe the “miss” indicates a deterioration of the core business. We continue to believe the new DLH has significant growth opportunities. The Company has noted multiple cross selling opportunities, with a recent example being the award given by the National Cancer Institute’s Center for Biomedical Informatics and Information Technology for IT services.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – First Look at 1Q23 Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 04, 2023

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q23 Results Below Expectations. Revenue totaled $458 million, up from $453 million a year ago, but below our $469 million projection. Consensus was $471 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $73.7 million, down from $80.8 million in 1Q22. We were at $76.4 million. CXW reported net income of $12.4 million, or $0.11/sh, compared to $19 million, or $0.16/sh last year and our $16.3 million, or $0.14/sh estimate. 

Labor, Arizona Remain Challenges. CoreCivic substantially completed the transition of inmate populations at the La Palma facility by the end of 2022, but continued to incur elevated operating expenses during the first quarter of 2023. This is due to ongoing efforts to attract and retain local staff at the facility, as well as other facilities to position the Company for the increased number of residents anticipated at facilities once the remaining occupancy restrictions attributable to COVID-19 are removed.


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Comstock Inc. (LODE) – Making the Transition to Commercialization

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 04, 2023

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Investor webinar. Comstock recently hosted a virtual investor meeting to provide a business update, including a discussion of first quarter financial results and upcoming milestones. Executing a license agreement(s) associated with its biorefining technologies and commencing development of commercial scale projects remains the most significant revenue opportunity in 2023. Within its mining segment, Comstock expects to publish preliminary economic assessments for the Lucerne and Dayton resource areas. Within its lithium-ion battery recycling segment, the company expects to advance the technology readiness for broader material recycling, including photovoltaics.

Sale of battery recycling facility enhances financial flexibility. Comstock’s LINICO subsidiary is advancing the sale of its battery recycling facility in the Tahoe Reno Industrial Center and associated assets to American Battery Technology Corporation (OTCQX: ABML) for a gross price of $27.6 million. As of April 21, Comstock has received $18 million in cash and 10 million restricted shares of American Battery Technology Corporation stock with the guarantee that Comstock will receive additional cash and/or shares if the proceeds for the shares are less than $6.6 million. Comstock expects to receive an additional $3.0 million in cash on or before May 12, 2023.


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Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI) – An Inflection Point? Raising PT to $12

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 04, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

The Strategy is Working. Posting record quarterly revenue and improved margins for the quarter indicates management’s growth strategy is working. We believe CVG is at an inflection point for improved growth and margins. The Company is well on its way to achieving its 2027 goal of $1.5 billion in revenue and 9% adjusted EBITDA margin, in our view.

Volume, Price Driving Top Line. Record first quarter revenue was driven by a combination of volume and price, with volume contributing about 60% of top line growth in the quarter and price the other 40%. CVG spent considerable energy in 2022 seeking out more favorable pricing to reflect current operating realities. The final major contract was redone in the first quarter of 2023 and began contributing at the beginning of April. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – First Quarter Results Exceed Expectations

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 04, 2023

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

First quarter financial results. Alliance reported first quarter EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $270.9 million and $1.45, respectively, compared to $154.6 million and $0.28 during the prior year period and $293.9 million and $1.63 during the fourth quarter of 2022. We had forecast EBITDA and EPU of $251.0 million and $1.25. While revenue of $662.9 million was modestly above our estimate of $661.1 million, operating expenses of $338.7 million were well below our estimate of $367.1 million. 

Updated guidance. Alliance provided updated 2023 guidance which we have incorporated into our estimates as detailed in the body of this note. While total coal sales volume is still expected to be 36.0 million to 38.0 million tons, coal sales price per ton was reduced to a range of $65 to $67 from $67 to $69 driven by lower pricing expectations for ARLP’s uncontracted coal tonnage position. As a partial offset, segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold was also lowered to $39 to $42 from $40.25 to $42.25. Importantly, Alliance increased the midpoint of its full year guidance for oil and gas volumes on a barrel of oil equivalent basis by approximately 9% due to strong performance on all of its acreage exceeding initial expectations.     


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – A Sale of East and West Jones

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 03, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Proposed Sale. On April 26th, Orion entered into a contract to sell the East and West Jones properties for $35.978 million. The transaction is expected to close before the end of September 2023. The sale of these properties has been a long time coming but are a significant positive for Orion, in our opinion.

Use of Proceeds. Historically, management has stated any proceeds from property sales would be used to repay/pay down debt. At year-end, total debt outstanding stood at $35.7 million, suggesting the Company could pay down a significant portion of the outstanding debt, depending on the net after-tax proceeds from the sale.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Harte Hanks (HHS) – A Change In Tone; Initiates Share Repurchase Authorization

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 03, 2023

Harte Hanks (NASDAQ: HHS) is a leading global customer experience company whose mission is to partner with clients to provide them with CX strategy, data-driven analytics and actionable insights combined with seamless program execution to better understand, attract, and engage their customers. Using its unparalleled resources and award-winning talent in the areas of Customer Care, Fulfillment and Logistics, and Marketing Services, Harte Hanks has a proven track record of driving results for some of the world’s premier brands including Bank of America, GlaxoSmithKline, Unilever, Pfizer, HBOMax, Volvo, Ford, FedEx, Midea, Sony, and IBM among others. Headquartered in Chelmsford, Massachusetts , Harte Hanks has over 2,500 employees in offices across the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific .

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Soft Q1 results.  The company reported Q1 revenue of $47.1 million, missing our estimate of $50.4 million by 6.5%. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $2.7 million, 21.8% lower than our estimate of $3.4 million. While we had anticipated a tough quarter, the results reflected softer than expected operating results in its Customer Care and Marketing Services segments.  

Not as resilient as once thought. The economic headwinds have created anxiety with businesses, which have delayed or cancelled some campaigns. While we continue to anticipate revenue strength in its Fulfillment and Logistics business, this is low margin and will not be enough to offset the higher margin revenue weakness. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – Better Than Expected 1Q23, But Conditions Still Challenging

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 03, 2023

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q23. Revenue came in at $158.0 million down from $194.3 million last year, but above our $148 million projection. Gross margin was 7.7%, down from 17% in the year ago period. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $10.2 million versus $29.7 million last year. The Company reported a loss of $3.2 million, or a loss of $0.05 per share for the quarter, compared to last year’s net income of $11.1 million, or $0.17 per diluted share. We had projected a net loss of $14.5 million, or a loss of $0.22 per share.

Backlog. Great Lakes ended the quarter with $327.1 million of dredging backlog, which does not include approximately $50.0 million of performance obligations related to offshore wind contracts. In addition, the Company ended the quarter with $516.9 million in low bids and options pending award. The Company’s awarded work during the quarter represented 31.7% of the first quarter bid market. Not included in the first quarter backlog is the Freeport Capital Port Deepening project, on which Great Lakes was the low bidder in April for approximately $160 million, which is the third largest domestic capital project Great Lakes has won in its history.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.