Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Our Discussion Included Eledon’s Science, Markets, and Company Strategy. We recently spoke with the Eledon CEO, Dr. DA Gros, as part of our C-Suite Interview Series. Our interview included the scientific principles on which tegoprubart is based, the unmet need in kidney transplantation, and the current clinical trials. Dr. Gros also discussed additional tegoprubart indications, company finances, and future milestones.
Eledon Is Pursuing An Unmet Need In Kidney Transplantation. Dr. Gros described how tegoprubart blocks a step in the immune response that has applications in many immune disorders. The first application in development is for prevention of kidney transplant rejection, where the current standard of care drugs are effective but have toxic side effects that lead to organ failure after 10 to 12 years. Tegoprubart is currently in two clinical trials for this indication.
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MAIA is a targeted therapy, immuno-oncology company focused on the development and commercialization of potential first-in-class drugs with novel mechanisms of action that are intended to meaningfully improve and extend the lives of people with cancer. Our lead program is THIO, a potential first-in-class cancer telomere targeting agent in clinical development for the treatment of NSCLC patients with telomerase-positive cancer cells. For more information, please visit www.maiabiotech.com.
Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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ESMO Data Shows Unusually High Survival Rates. MAIA Biotechnology presented preliminary data from the THIO-101 trial in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) at the European Society for Medical Oncology conference. The disease control rate (DCR) reached 100% in second line patients compared with about 53% to 64% for standard of care therapies. DCR for third line patients reached 88%, compared with about 30% expected. We see these results as extremely strong, and believe DCR could correlate with overall survival (OS), a primary endpoint of the trial.
Preliminary Data Shows Strong Response. The results showed a disease control rate (DCR, consisting of complete responses, partial responses, or stable disease) of 100% or 19 out of 19 patients in second line therapy and 88% or 14 out of 16 patients in third line. Published data from 74 clinical trials with standard of care therapies show 53% to 64% DCR in second line and about 30% in third line. We see this as a substantial improvement over results from standard of care therapies.
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Travelzoo® provides its 30 million members with exclusive offers and one-of-a-kind experiences personally reviewed by our deal experts around the globe. We have our finger on the pulse of outstanding travel, entertainment, and lifestyle experiences. We work in partnership with more than 5,000 top travel suppliers—our long-standing relationships give Travelzoo members access to irresistible deals.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Upside surprise. Q3 revenue of $20.6 million, which increased 30.0% year over year, was better than our $18.9 million estimate and reflected strong revenue growth in its Europe operations (+35.5%) and North America (+27.4%). Q3 adj. EBITDA beat expectations, $3.9 million versus our $3.1 million estimate.
Margin improvement. Adj. EBITDA margins were 18.7%, up significantly from the year earlier margins of 7.1%, reflecting the improved revenue performance and the company’s diligence on keeping costs low and its earlier significant cuts in its infrastructure footprint.
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DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Key Metrics. Yesterday, DLH Holdings released some key metrics for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2023. The Company expects to release full audited financial results on December 6th. We will update our models following the full release.
Revenue. The preliminary 4Q23 revenue estimate is $100 million, which would be below our $103 million estimate and the $104 million consensus estimate, up from $67.2 million in 4Q22. The increase was driven by the GRSi acquisition. The legacy contract portfolio grew modestly. We believe the slow roll out of work under recently won ID/IQs negatively impacted quarterly revenue growth.
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Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Permex completed a 1 for 4 common share consolidation. The consolidation, which was effective October 23, 2023, was initially announced on October 19, 2023. The consolidation affects Permex shares on the Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE), the Frankfurt Stock Exchange and the OTCQB. With the consolidation, the number of outstanding shares has been reduced from approximately 2 million to 400,000. The consolidation was needed to be listed on the Nasdaq Capital Market. If completed at an assumed post-consolidation price of $7.64 per share, the offerings would generate $29 million.
Permex to issue common equity and warrants. On October 20, 2023, Permex filed a prospectus to issue up to 1.9 million common units with accompanying warrants and to issue up to 1.9 million pre-funded units and warrants. The warrant associated with the common units does not have a set exercise price, which we will assume will be near the common stock offer price. The warrants for the pre-funded common shares will have an exercise price of $0.01 per share. The new shares, if approved, will trade on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbols OILS and OILSW.
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Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (“Eagle”) is a US-based drybulk owner-operator focused on the Supramax/Ultramax mid-size asset class, which ranges from 50,000 and 65,000 deadweight tons in size; these vessels are equipped with onboard cranes allowing for the self-loading and unloading of cargoes, a feature which distinguishes them from the larger classes of drybulk vessels and provides for greatly enhanced flexibility and versatility- both with respect to cargo diversity and port accessibility. The Company transports a broad range of major and minor bulk cargoes around the world, including coal, grain, ore, pet coke, cement, and fertilizer. Eagle operates out of three offices, Stamford (headquarters), Singapore, and Hamburg, and performs all aspects of vessel management in-house including: commercial, operational, technical, and strategic.
Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Shipping rates remain low but are improving. Eagle shipping rates remained low in the third quarter. Eagle has fixed approximately 66% of its shipping days for the quarter at a TCE rate near $10,900/day. Rates for unfixed shipping days dipped early in the quarter below fixed rates but exited the quarter closer to $14,000 giving hope that fourth quarter results will show improvement. We are lowering our assumed TCE rate for unfixed days to $10,500 from $12,000.
Operating costs should be fairly steady but interest costs rise. With 2023-2Q results, management provided guidance for operating costs per ownership days for the third quarter that were similar to the second quarter. One exception was interest expense which increased several million dollars with debt levels rising as part of a share repurchase program. We are increasing our estimated interest expense for the quarter and going forward.
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Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Business Diversification. Bit Digital is launching a new AI-focused business, Bit Digital AI, that will provide specialized infrastructure to support generative artificial intelligence (AI) workstreams. The new business materially diversifies Bit Digital’s revenue sources with a goal of providing a non-correlated income stream to help offset potential downturns in the core bitcoin mining and ETH staking business.
A Customer Contract. Bit Digital has entered into a binding term sheet with a customer to support their GPU-accelerated workloads. Bit Digital will provide the customer with rental services for a minimum of 1,024 GPUs and a maximum of 4,096 GPUs. The total number of GPUs, contract length, and corresponding unit pricing will be determined upon signing of the master service agreement.
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Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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We have updated our models to reflect reported August quarter financial results. We are fine tuning our models to reflect August quarter results. We have raised our sales projections modestly to reflect anticipated growth in the Precoat division in the February quarter, typically the weakest quarter for the company. We now project Precoat sales and overall sales in the fourth quarter of $195 million and $345 million, respectively.
We have trimmed margins a bit. We have lowered our gross margin and EBITDA margin assumptions for the third and fourth quarter. Our margin assumptions now show improvement over previous year results, but now allow for a decrease in margins in the winter quarters relative to the summer quarters to reflect lower sales.
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Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Highlights from investor meetings. This report provides highlights from a non-deal roadshow with investors last week in New York, Miami, and Boca Raton with Keith Smith, Co-Founder and President, and Diana Diaz, Chief Financial Officer.
Reiterating full year guidance. Management appeared sanguine about at least hitting expectations on revenue and operating cash flow (adj. EBITDA) for the full year 2023. Revenues are expected to increase roughly 43% to $128.1 million, in line with management’s guidance. Adj. EBITDA in 2023 is expected to be $9.0 million, growing 25% to $11.3 million in 2024.
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Bowlero Corp. is the worldwide leader in bowling entertainment, media, and events. With more than 300 bowling centers across North America, Bowlero Corp. serves more than 26 million guests each year through a family of brands that includes Bowlero, Bowlmor Lanes, and AMF. In 2019, Bowlero Corp. acquired the Professional Bowlers Association, the major league of bowling, which boasts thousands of members and millions of fans across the globe. For more information on Bowlero Corp., please visit BowleroCorp.com.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Asset sale-leaseback. On October 19, the company completed the sale-leaseback of 38 bowling centers across 17 states to Vici Properties in exchange for $432.9 million. Notably, the agreement is structured as a 25 year lease with an initial annual rent of $31.6 million. In our view, the favorable transaction should allow for an acceleration of company growth initiatives and debt reduction.
Terms of the agreement. The 25 year lease will increase from the initial amount of $31.6 million by a minimum of 2% and a maximum of 2.5% annually, equating to an acquisition cap rate of 7.3%. The lease agreement stipulates the lessee pays all expenses of the property in addition to rent, and should be treated as a long-term lease, which should have no impact on EBITDA.
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Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Innovative products for producing renewable fuels.Comstock Fuels, a wholly owned subsidiary, converts lignocellulosic biomass into cellulosic ethanol and proprietary Bioleum bio-intermediate blends at yields exceeding 100 gallons per dry tonne of biomass on a gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) basis with low market-leading carbon intensity scores.
Hydro-deoxygenated Bioleum Oil (HBO). The innovative break throughs are achieved in part by using catalytic esterification and hydro-deoxygenation to process Bioleum into Hydro-deoxygenated Bioleum Oil (HBO). HBO is a proprietary drop-in bio-intermediate that can be sold to advanced biofuel refineries for use in blending with fat-based feedstocks to produce sustainable aviation and renewable diesel fuels.
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The E.W. Scripps Company (NASDAQ: SSP) is a diversified media company focused on creating a better-informed world. As one of the nation’s largest local TV broadcasters, Scripps serves communities with quality, objective local journalism and operates a portfolio of 61 stations in 41 markets. The Scripps Networks reach nearly every American through the national news outlets Court TV and Newsy and popular entertainment brands ION, Bounce, Defy TV, Grit, ION Mystery, Laff and TrueReal. Scripps is the nation’s largest holder of broadcast spectrum. Scripps runs an award-winning investigative reporting newsroom in Washington, D.C., and is the longtime steward of the Scripps National Spelling Bee. Founded in 1878, Scripps has held for decades to the motto, “Give light and the people will find their own way.”
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Highlights from a recent NDR. On October 12th, Adam Symson, CEO; Jason Combs, CFO; and Carolyn Micheli hosted investor meetings in New York. Management highlighted positive developments in retransmission revenue and Scripps Sports. Notably, Scripps Sports employs a unique model that offers sports teams wider viewership than the traditional RSN model that is now failing.
Renegotiates 75% of its subscribers. The company recently announced that it has completed retransmission negotiations with 75% of its current subscribers. As a result, the company reaffirmed its guidance that retransmission revenue will increase a strong 15% in 2024 to roughly $750 million.
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Comtech Telecommunications Corp. engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of products, systems, and services for advanced communications solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Telecommunications Transmission, Mobile Data Communications, and RF Microwave Amplifiers. The Telecommunications Transmission segment provides satellite earth station equipment and systems, over-the-horizon microwave systems, and forward error correction technology, which are used in various commercial and government applications, including backhaul of wireless and cellular traffic, broadcasting (including HDTV), IP-based communications traffic, long distance telephony, and secure defense applications. The Mobile Data Communications segment provides mobile satellite transceivers, and computers and satellite earth station network gateways and associated installation, training, and maintenance services; supplies and operates satellite packet data networks, including arranging and providing satellite capacity; and offers microsatellites and related components. The RF Microwave Amplifiers segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets satellite earth station traveling wave tube amplifiers (TWTA) and broadband amplifiers. Its amplifiers are used in broadcast and broadband satellite communication; defense applications, such as telecommunications systems and electronic warfare systems; and commercial applications comprising oncology treatment systems, as well as to amplify signals carrying voice, video, or data for air-to-satellite-to-ground communications. The company serves satellite systems integrators, wireless and other communication service providers, broadcasters, defense contractors, military, governments, and oil companies. Comtech markets its products through independent representatives and value-added resellers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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4Q23 Results. Revenue of $148.8 million was up 9.2% sequentially, well above the management’s 1%-4% projected sequential growth. Y-o-Y revenue was up 17.2%. We were at $140 million. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $18.9 million, versus $12.7 million in 4Q22. We were at $13.4 million. Comtech reported a net loss of $5.3 million, or a loss of $0.19 per share, compared to a net loss of $6.9 million, or $0.26 per share last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.29 versus $0.24. We had forecast a net loss of $8.2 million, or a loss of $0.29 per share, and adjusted EPS of $0.21.
Transformational Year. We believe FY23 was a transformational year for Comtech. The business structure has been simplified, synergies are becoming apparent, cost savings can be seen in the operating results, and major new contract awards provide a solid foundation for future growth.
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