Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

Onconova Therapeutics (ONTX) – Onconova To Present Data At American Association of Cancer Research Meeting

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, March 11, 2024

Onconova Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing novel products for patients with cancer. The Company has proprietary targeted anti-cancer agents designed to disrupt specific cellular pathways that are important for cancer cell proliferation. Onconova’s novel, proprietary multi-kinase inhibitor narazaciclib (formerly ON 123300) is being evaluated in a combination trial with estrogen blockade in advanced endometrial cancer. Based on preclinical and clinical studies of CDK 4/6 inhibitors, Onconova is also evaluating opportunities for combination studies with narazaciclib in additional indications. Onconova’s product candidate rigosertib is being studied in multiple investigator-sponsored studies. These studies include a dose-escalation and expansion Phase 1/2a study of oral rigosertib in combination with nivolumab in patients with KRAS+ non-small cell lung cancer, a Phase 2 program evaluating rigosertib monotherapy in advanced squamous cell carcinoma complicating recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (RDEB-associated SCC), and a Phase 2 trial evaluating rigosertib in combination with pembrolizumab in patients with metastatic melanoma.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Onconova Announces Presentation At AACR. Onconova announced the scheduling of a poster presentation at the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting scheduled for April 8, 2024, in San Diego. The abstract provides additional details on rigosertib’s multiple mechanisms of action that include effects on cell signaling, interruption of cell division, and inflammation within the tumor environment to improve efficacy of checkpoint inhibitors.

Mechanisms Are Consistent With Rigosertib Clinical Trials. Rigosertib is currently in a Phase 1/2 trial testing the combination of rigosertib with nivolumab (Opdivo, an anti-PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor) in patients with KRAS-positive non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and in a Phase 2 trial with pembrolizumab (Keytruda, an anti-PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor) in metastatic melanoma.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Information Services Group (III) – Waiting Out the Delays

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, March 11, 2024

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For additional information, visit www.ISG-One.com

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Continued Challenging Environment. Client decision making drove a decrease in performance for ISG in the fourth quarter. However, it was not just the Company experiencing this, the IT and business services industry felt the squeeze as well. We believe the Company’s recurring revenues (now 43% of total sales) and the expansion of its AI services will allow ISG to push through an expected challenging first half in 2024.

Full Year Results. Revenue increased 2% to $291.1 million for the year, with the Americas segment showing growth while Europe and Asia Pacific decreased from last year. Net income was $9.8 million, or $0.20 per share excluding a bad debt reserve. Adjusted EBITDA was $37.7 million or a margin of 12.9%.


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FAT Brands (FAT) – Reports Fourth Quarter Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, March 11, 2024

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q23 Results. FAT Brands reported 4Q23 revenue of $158.6 million, up 52.8% y-o-y, driven by the Smokey Bones acquisition. System-wide sales growth was 16.5%. FAT reported adjusted EBITDA of $27 million in the quarter, compared to $19.6 million in 4Q23. Net loss for the quarter was $26.2 million, or $1.68/sh, compared to a net loss of $70.8 million, or $4.39/sh last year. Adjusted net loss for the quarter was $17.3 million, or $1.15/sh, compared to a net loss of $43 million, or a loss of $2.70/sh, last year. We had projected revenue of $150 million and a net loss of $25.9 million, or a loss of $1.55/sh.

New Locations. During the quarter, FAT Brands saw 29 store openings, bringing the full year count to 125 locations, somewhat below the original expectation of 150 new locations. Management expects another 125+ new openings in 2024. The current 1,100 store pipeline will add some $60 million of adjusted EBITDA once built out.


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Xcel Brands (XELB) – Updates Investors With Preliminary Q4 Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, March 08, 2024

Xcel Brands, Inc. 1333 Broadway 10th Floor New York, NY 10018 United States https:/Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 84 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Robert W. D’Loren Chairman, Pres & CEO 1.27M N/A 1958 Mr. James F. Haran CFO, Principal Financial & Accou

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Provides preliminary Q4 estimates. The company provided Q4 revenue and adj. EBITDA preliminary estimates that are slightly below our expectations. The preliminary revenue estimate was $2.13 million versus our estimate of $2.80 million. In addition, the adj. EBITDA preliminary estimate of a loss of $1.07 million was somewhat higher than our loss estimate of $451,000. 

Preliminary full year results. Total company revenue for 2023 is expected to be $17.7 million and EBITDA of $5.1 million. The preliminary results are slightly below our $18.5 million and loss of $5.4 million, respectively.  


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Saga Communications (SGA) – Regains Its Crown

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, March 08, 2024

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 27 markets, including 79 FM and 33 AM radio stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Active Rock, Adult Album Alternative, Adult Contemporary, Country, Classic Country, Classic Hits, Classic Rock, Contemporary Hits Radio, News/Talk, Oldies and Urban Contemporary. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Delivers good Q4 results. Total company revenues of $29.1 million was slightly better than our $28.5 million estimate. The Q4 revenue decline of a modest 3.3% was due to the absence of Political advertising. However, it was among the best in an industry which reflected revenue declines between 6% to 14% among its peers. Adj. EBITDA was $4.5 million versus our $4.0 million estimate. 

Announces special dividend. The company declared its first variable dividend of $0.60 per share to be paid on April 5, 2024 with a record date of March 18, 2024. The dividend will be funded by cash on the company’s balance sheet. This variable dividend is in addition to the regular quarterly dividend and a recent $2 per share special dividend. 


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QuantaSing Group Limited (QSG) – Quietly Executing Its Growth Strategy

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, March 08, 2024

QuantaSing is a leading online service provider in China dedicated to improving people’s quality of life and well-being by providing lifelong personal learning and development opportunities. The Company is the largest service provider in China’s online adult learning market and China’s adult personal interest learning market in terms of revenue, according to a report by Frost & Sullivan based on data from 2022. By leveraging its proprietary tools and technology, QuantaSing offers easy-to-understand, affordable, and accessible online courses to adult learners under a variety of brands, including QiNiu, JiangZhen and QianChi, empowering users to pursue personal development. Leveraging its extensive experience in individual online learning services, the Company has also expanded its services to corporate clients including, among others, marketing services and enterprise talent management services.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strong results. The company reported strong fiscal Q2 revenue and adj. EBITDA for the period ended December 31. Revenue of RMB980.5 million and adj. EBITDA of RMB 98.6 million outperformed our estimates of RMB 930.0 million and RMB 83.0 million, respectively.

User growth. Total registered users grew roughly 45% to 112.4 million users, up from 77.8 million users at the end of the prior year period. Total paying learner grew to 0.4 million, up 24% from the prior year period.  


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Information Services Group (III) – First Look into the Fourth Quarter

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, March 08, 2024

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For additional information, visit www.ISG-One.com

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Growth in a Down Industry. For the year, the IT and business services industry has been down 6% in revenue while ISG grew its topline by 2%. We believe the growth is a testament to the Company’s focus on recurring revenues with such revenues being $125 million for the year, up 16% compared to last year, through its platforms such as ISG GovernX and ISG ProBenchmark. Recurring revenues now represent 43% of ISG’s overall revenue, up 500 basis points from the prior year.

Fourth Quarter Results. Management reported revenues of $66.2 million for the quarter, below last year’s revenue of $74.2 million and below our estimate of $69.0 million. Slower decision making from clients resulted in revenue being pushed to the right for the Company. Driven by a $4.8 million bad-debt reserve taken in 4Q23, net loss was $2.9 million, or $0.06/sh, versus net income of $4.3 million, or $0.09/sh in 4Q22. We estimated net income of $2.6 million, or $0.05/sh.


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DLH Holdings (DLHC) – NCI Award

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, March 08, 2024

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NCI Award. DLH Holdings has been awarded a contract to continue and expand its user-experience, technology refresh, and IT services for the National Institutes of Health’s (“NIH”) National Cancer Institute (“NCI”), the largest institute under NIH. This new award extends DLH’s longstanding partnership with NCI’s Center for Biomedical Informatics and Information Technology (“CBIIT”) by providing scientific computing and informatics to support NCI’s research mission.

CBIIT Blanket. The contract was competitively awarded through the multiple-award blanket purchase agreement with CBIIT that the Company announced in February 2023. Including the base period and all option periods, the contract has a value of approximately $52 million over a performance period of five and a half years. Furthermore, the award includes provisions for an additional $86 million in optional IT services. If fully exercised, the potential maximum contract value would be $138 million.


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Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – Some Insider Buying

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Thursday, March 07, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Insider Buying. Two Orion executives-CEO Travis Boone and General Counsel Chip Earle-added to their Orion holdings following the February 28th release of full year results. We would note Orion shares fell on the earnings news, dropping as low as $5.81 after closing the prior day at $6.92. While the purchases were modest, the acquisition of shares on the heels of the price drop is informative, in our view.

Travis Boone. On March 4th, CEO Travis Boone reported the purchase of 12,000 ORN shares at an average cost of $7.01 per share. The shares were acquired at prices ranging from $6.91-$7.08. The recent purchase increased Mr. Boone’s overall Orion stake to 402,557 shares. Notably, this appears to be the first open market purchases made by Mr. Boone.


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MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA) – New THIO-101 Update Shows Consistent Overall Response Rate

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, March 07, 2024

MAIA is a targeted therapy, immuno-oncology company focused on the development and commercialization of potential first-in-class drugs with novel mechanisms of action that are intended to meaningfully improve and extend the lives of people with cancer. Our lead program is THIO, a potential first-in-class cancer telomere targeting agent in clinical development for the treatment of NSCLC patients with telomerase-positive cancer cells. For more information, please visit www.maiabiotech.com.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Third Line Patients’ Preliminary Overall Response Rate (ORR) Shows Improvement. MAIA announced updated data from its THIO-101 trial. The trial enrolled patients with Stage 3 or 4 NSCLC who have progressive disease after treatment with checkpoint inhibitor therapy with or without standard of care chemotherapy. These advanced disease patients were treated with the combination of THIO and Libtayo (cemiplimab, an anti-PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor from Regeneron). The data was from the first patients receiving treatment as third-line therapy that reached an evaluation timepoint by January 8, 2024.

ORR Greatly Exceeded Published Studies. New data was from patients who had received the THIO combination as third-line treatment. The overall response rate was 38%, with 3 out of 8 patients showing a complete response (CR) or partial response (PR). This compares with response rates of about 6% in published studies.


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GeoVax Labs (GOVX) – Vaccine Production Technology Reaches Milestone With Manufacturing Facility Validation

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, March 07, 2024

GeoVax Labs, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing novel therapies and vaccines for solid tumor cancers and many of the world’s most threatening infectious diseases. The company’s lead program in oncology is a novel oncolytic solid tumor gene-directed therapy, Gedeptin®, presently in a multicenter Phase 1/2 clinical trial for advanced head and neck cancers. GeoVax’s lead infectious disease candidate is GEO-CM04S1, a next-generation COVID-19 vaccine targeting high-risk immunocompromised patient populations. Currently in three Phase 2 clinical trials, GEO-CM04S1 is being evaluated as a primary vaccine for immunocompromised patients such as those suffering from hematologic cancers and other patient populations for whom the current authorized COVID-19 vaccines are insufficient, and as a booster vaccine in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). In addition, GEO-CM04S1 is in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating the vaccine as a more robust, durable COVID-19 booster among healthy patients who previously received the mRNA vaccines. GeoVax has a leadership team who have driven significant value creation across multiple life science companies over the past several decades.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Commercial Scale Production Facility Achieves Validation. GeoVax has announced that its manufacturing technology for producing commercial-scale MVA-based vaccines has been validated for production. This signifies the successful transfer of the technology from the research facility to the commercial cGMP manufacturing plant, with production runs that meet specifications for use in clinical trials and commercial sales. This was a milestone we had anticipated that allows higher quantities, faster production, and greater yields of its proprietary MVA-based vaccines.

The New Manufacturing Facility Cam Produce The Pipeline Vaccines. Products that can be made in the system include CM04S1, its vaccine currently in two different Phase 2 trials to stimulate protective responses against COVID for immunocompromised patients with hematological cancers and in Phase 2 as a universal booster for COVID. The facility can also produce the vaccines in development for infectious diseases including smallpox, Ebola, zika, and malaria.


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Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) – Fourth Quarter Post Call Commentary

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, March 07, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Impact of UAW Strike on 4Q. Fourth quarter results were negatively impacted by a work stoppage at a customer facility due to the UAW strike. Management estimated the strike reduced revenue by about $12 million and had a $0.05/sh negative impact on EPS. We expect that eventually the revenue will come back, it is just a question of timing.

New Wins. CVG recorded in excess of $150 million of new wins in 2023 on a fully ramped basis, continuing the Company’s strong track record of success. The wins continue to be focused within the Electrical Systems segment and support the product ramp-up at the new plants in Mexico and Morocco, which are focused on meeting the demand growth in electrical systems. CVG is currently expanding its Morocco footprint with an additional new plant under construction.


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V2X (VVX) – A Solid End to 2023

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, March 06, 2024

For more than 70 years, Vectrus has provided critical mission support for our customers’ toughest operational challenges. As a high-performing organization with exceptional talent, deep domain knowledge, a history of long-term customer relationships, and groundbreaking technical expertise, we deliver innovative, mission-matched solutions for our military and government customers worldwide. Whether it’s base operations support, supply chain and logistics, IT mission support, engineering and digital integration, security, or maintenance, repair and overhaul, our customers count on us for on-target solutions that increase efficiency, reduce costs, improve readiness, and strengthen national security. Vectrus is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo., and includes about 8,100 employees spanning 205 locations in 28 countries. In 2021, Vectrus generated sales of $1.8 billion. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.vectrus.com or connect with Vectrus on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Solid 2023. The transformation of V2X continued in 2023. The Company has emerged as a leader in the operational segment of the broader federal services marketplace. V2X is advancing how missions are operated by leveraging converged and engineered solutions, at the intersection of technology and operations. This includes modernization and sustainment support that elongates platform life cycles while enhancing capabilities.

4Q23 Results. Record revenue of $1.04 billion was up 6.4% y-o-y, and above our $1.01 billion forecast. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $82.1 million versus $82.3 million in 4Q22 and our $75 million estimate. Adjusted diluted EPS was $1.22 compared to $0.97 last year and our $0.97 estimate.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.