Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

NN, Inc. (NNBR) – A Leading Manufacturer of High-Precision Metal Products

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, April 15, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating Research Coverage. We are initiating research coverage of NN, Inc. with an Outperform rating and a $6 price target. Under a new management team, NN is implementing a strategic transformation designed to secure new growth, increase profits, and generate free cash flow.

Attractive End Markets. NN competes in growing and attractive end markets across the globe. NN won a record $62.6 million of new business wins in 2023. With a global competitive operational footprint, NN can leverage its collective strengths and procurement scale, in our view. End market diversity helps insulate the Company from a downturn in any one end market.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD) – Tecarfarin Receives Orphan Drug Designation For Second Indication

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Friday, April 12, 2024

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Orphan Designation Received For Circulatory Assist Devices. Cadrenal Therapeutics has received Orphan Drug designation for tecarfarin as an anticoagulant in patients with circulatory-assist devices, including ventricular assist devices (VADs) and total artificial hearts. This is the second Orphan designation for tecarfarin. The first indication, atrial fibrillation associated with end stage renal disease (AFib with ESRD), is expected to begin a Phase 3 trial in 2Q24.

Circulatory Assist Device Patients Do Not Have Effective Anticoagulants. Mechanical devices to assist blood circulation can activate the clotting cascade, putting patients who receive them at risk of clots or thromboembolisms. Commonly used anticoagulants in the direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) category have not shown efficacy in these patients and have been contraindicated. This leaves the patients at high risk for thromboembolic events and hospitalizations.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) – Increasing The Focus on Fibromyalgia

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, April 11, 2024

Tonix is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, licensing, acquiring and developing therapeutics and diagnostics to treat and prevent human disease and alleviate suffering. Tonix’s portfolio is composed of immunology, rare disease, infectious disease, and central nervous system (CNS) product candidates. Tonix’s immunology portfolio includes biologics to address organ transplant rejection, autoimmunity and cancer, including TNX-15001 which is a humanized monoclonal antibody targeting CD40-ligand being developed for the prevention of allograft and xenograft rejection and for the treatment of autoimmune diseases. A Phase 1 study of TNX-1500 is expected to be initiated in the second half of 2022. Tonix’s rare disease portfolio includes TNX-29002 for the treatment of Prader-Willi syndrome. TNX-2900 has been granted Orphan-Drug Designation by the FDA. Tonix’s infectious disease pipeline includes a vaccine in development to prevent smallpox and monkeypox called TNX-8013, next-generation vaccines to prevent COVID-19, and an antiviral to treat COVID-19. Tonix’s lead vaccine candidates for COVID-19 are TNX-1840 and TNX-18504, which are live virus vaccines based on Tonix’s recombinant pox vaccine (RPV) platform. TNX-35005 (sangivamycin, i.v. solution) is a small molecule antiviral drug to treat acute COVID-19 and is in the pre-IND stage of development. TNX-102 SL6, (cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablets), is a small molecule drug being developed to treat Long COVID, a chronic post-acute COVID-19 condition. Tonix expects to initiate a Phase 2 study in Long COVID in the second quarter of 2022. The Company’s CNS portfolio includes both small molecules and biologics to treat pain, neurologic, psychiatric and addiction conditions. Tonix’s lead CNS candidate, TNX-102 SL, is in mid-Phase 3 development for the management of fibromyalgia with a new Phase 3 study launched in the second quarter of 2022. Finally, TNX-13007 is a biologic designed to treat cocaine intoxication that is expected to start a Phase 2 trial in the second quarter of 2022. TNX-1300 has been granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation by the FDA.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

We Expect Tonmya To Drive TNXP Forward. Since announcing successful Phase 3 RESILIENT trial data in late December, Tonix has been shifting its development and financial strategy to focus on filing the NDA for Tonmya approval during 2H24. The company has raised capital and plans lower R&D expenses to preserve cash. We have revised our earnings estimates and price target while maintaining our Outperform rating.

Tonix Will Focus On Products For CNS Disorders and Reduce Expenses. Tonix has developed broad pipeline of products in infectious disease, biodefense, and immunology that grew from its original work in neurology and immunology. In the coming year, it will focus on the NDA filing and premarketing activities for Tonmya. We have reduced our clinical expenses estimates, since the large trials have been completed and no late-stage trials are scheduled.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Lowering Near-Term Estimates to Reflect More Conservative Pricing and Cost Assumptions

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, April 11, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating estimates. We have lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPU estimates to $841.1 million and $3.90 from $846.9 million and $3.98, respectively. Among our revisions, we have lowered our coal price assumptions, increased our expense estimates, and made minor changes in our unit count. Our estimates remain within the partnership’s guidance ranges and are summarized within this report.

New officer appointment. Mr. Steven Schnitzer recently joined the general partner of ARLP as Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary. Mr. Schnitzer was involved in the 1996 leveraged buy-out of MAPCO Coal, now Alliance Resource Partners, and regularly represented the partnership until 2014 when he left private practice. His experience working with companies in the natural resources and energy transition fields will be helpful as Alliance pursues growth opportunities within and outside its traditional businesses. Most recently, Mr. Schnitzer served as Chief Legal Officer and Secretary of a commercial and industrial solar generation and battery storage developer.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI) – Revenue Momentum Slows

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, April 10, 2024

QuoteMedia is a leading software developer and cloud-based syndicator of financial market information and streaming financial data solutions to media, corporations, online brokerages, and financial services companies. The Company licenses interactive stock research tools such as streaming real-time quotes, market research, news, charting, option chains, filings, corporate financials, insider reports, market indices, portfolio management systems, and data feeds. QuoteMedia provides industry leading market data solutions and financial services for companies such as the Nasdaq Stock Exchange, TMX Group (TSX Stock Exchange), Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE), London Stock Exchange Group, FIS, U.S. Bank, Broadridge Financial Systems, JPMorgan Chase, CI Financial, Canaccord Genuity Corp., Hilltop Securities, HD Vest, Stockhouse, Zacks Investment Research, General Electric, Boeing, Bombardier, Telus International, Business Wire, PR Newswire, FolioFN, Regal Securities, ChoiceTrade, Cetera Financial Group, Dynamic Trend, Inc., Qtrade Financial, CNW Group, IA Private Wealth, Ally Invest, Inc., Suncor, Virtual Brokers, Leede Jones Gable, Firstrade Securities, Charles Schwab, First Financial, Cirano, Equisolve, Stock-Trak, Mergent, Cision, Day Trade Dash and others. Quotestream®, QModTM and Quotestream ConnectTM are trademarks of QuoteMedia. For more information, please visit www.quotemedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q4 results. The company reported softer than expected results in Q4. Revenue and adj. EBITDA were $4.7 million and $0.7 million in the quarter, modestly below our estimates of $5.0 million and $0.9 million, respectively. Q4 revenue growth was 3.1%, a deceleration from 8.5% growth in Q3. We believe that revenue was impacted by lower customer data usage.

Pipeline appears favorable. Management highlighted the shift to first party data as a significant development that should improve the company’s value proposition to clients. Notably, the company has roughly $1.0 million in deferred revenue in the quarter, which will be booked as the business comes on line. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Ocugen (OCGN) – Phase 3 IND Clearance Is Good News We’ve Been Waiting For

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, April 09, 2024

Ocugen, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing novel gene therapies, biologicals, and vaccines. The lead product in its gene therapy program, OCU400, is in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for retinitis pigmentosa.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Phase 3 Trial Is Expected to Start Shortly. Ocugen announced that its amended IND for the OCU400 Phase 3 clinical trial has been cleared by the FDA. This allows the clinical trial to start enrolling patients, consistent with previous guidance for an April 2024 start. The company now has 3 clinical trials in progress in its ophthalmic disease programs.

Phase 3 Could Start Immediately. The trial is designed to compare patients treated with OCU400 to untreated controls. There are two arms, one enrolling patients with the RHO mutation and a “gene agnostic” arm enrolling patients who may have any of the mutations associated with RP. Each arm will randomize patients at 2:1, with 50 in each treatment group and 25 in each control group for a total enrollment of 150 patients. Patients will be treated with a single injection of OCU400.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

AZZ Inc. (AZZ) – AZZ raises guidance. We raised our numbers two weeks ago.

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, April 09, 2024

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

AZZ raised its FY 2025 guidance. Management increased its estimated sales, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted diluted EPS by 15-20%. The increase incorporates a $4.5-$5.0 million reduction in financing costs due to the repricing of AZZ’s Term Loan B. It also reflects an expected improvement in results from AZZ’s partially spun off AIS division (40% owned and treated as other income). Management expects $15-$18 million of other income in FY 2025, up from the $13 million we have assumed for FY 2024 (reporting 4/22).

AIS growth reflects increased activity in the Electrical Infrastructure business units. Increased use of data centers, electric grid improvements, and general growth in manufacturing is leading to increased sales. We view higher results as sustainable and have raised our other income estimate for the years beyond FY 2025..


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – New Debt Priced; Raising PT to $17

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, April 08, 2024

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Upsized and Pricing. The GEO Group announced a private offering of $1.275 billion of senior notes, comprised of $650 million 8.625% notes due 2029 and $650 million 10.25% notes due 2031. GEO had originally sought to raise $1.2 billion. The Company also announced a new $450 million Term Loan B bearing interest at SOFR plus 5.25%. Net proceeds are anticipated to be $1.67 billion.

6.50% Convertible Notes. The Company also announced it is exchanging $177 million principal amount of its 6.50% Exchangeable Senior Notes due 2026, representing about 77% of the outstanding principal amount. GEO will pay cash and common stock for the estimated $305 million market value of the Notes, with the cash portion expected to be $177 million. At the current stock price, the remaining $128 million of principal amount would be exchanged for approximately 9.1 million GEO shares.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Comstock Inc. (LODE) – Accelerating Commercialization Across Multiple Business Lines

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, April 08, 2024

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

First quarter 2024 perception report. RB Milestone, Comstock’s investor relations firm, released its first quarter 2024 stakeholder perception report which provides insight into Comstock’s operational milestones and strengths and weaknesses as perceived by stakeholders. The accompanying presentation highlighted the achievement of significant company milestones, notably in its Metals and Fuels segments. An underreported point made during the presentation is that Comstock has approximately $225 million of net operating loss tax carry-forward that may be used to offset gains from sales of non-core assets and future profits.

Growing customer commitments. During the first quarter, Comstock Metals received all permits for its solar panel recycling facility and began commissioning the plant. Comstock Metals has received over 60 tons of end-of-life solar panels for which it has received cash and expects to begin recognizing revenue in the second quarter as the panels are processed. Supplier commitments have exceeded expectations and Comstock is preparing permits for its first industry-scale facility.


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Bitcoin Depot (BTM) – Expansion Ahead of Schedule

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, April 08, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

International expansion. The company recently announced its plans to ship 125 kiosks to Australia’s largest cities, Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, in Q2 2024. Notably, we believe there is a sizeable opportunity for growth in Australia, which has a population of approximately 27 million people, and less than 1000 Bitcoin ATM’s in the entire county. In addition to Australia, the company expanded to Puerto Rico in March, adding 87 kiosks.

Franchise opportunities. In our view, the company should benefit from franchising, which offers the company a capital efficient method to expand operations. Notably, the company captures roughly 30%-50% of profits from franchise locations with virtually no capital committed. We view the relatively new franchise program favorably.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Proposed Refinancing

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, April 04, 2024

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Proposed Refinancing. The GEO Group is proposing to issue $1.2 billion of senior notes, comprised of $700 million of senior secured notes due 2029 and $500 million of senior unsecured notes due 2031 in a private offering. The Company also is seeking a new $400 million Term Loan B under a new senior secured credit facility.

Use of Proceeds. The proceeds will be used to refinance approximately  $1.5 billion of existing indebtedness, including to fund the repurchase, redemption or other discharge of the Company’s existing Tranche 1 Term Loan and Tranche 2 Term Loan under its existing senior credit facility, the 9.50% senior second lien secured notes, the 10.50% senior second lien secured notes, and the 6.00% senior notes due 2026. Other uses are to pay debt related transaction fees and expenses and for general corporate purposes.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Bit Digital (BTBT) – A Slight Improvement in March

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, April 04, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Mining Business. Bit Digital produced 136.4 BTC during the month of March, a 6% increase from 128.7 BTC in the month of February. The active hash rate for the Company was 2.76 EH/s compared to 2.73 EH/s last month. We believe the Company is still on track towards its active mining fleet goal of 6.0 EH/s by the end of 2024.

Staking Side and AI. Approximately 3,008 ETH was actively staked in native staking protocols as of March 31, 2024. This is a decrease from the 12,384 natively staked last month due to the Company changing its provider for native staking solutions. The Company earned a blended APY of approximately 2.8% on its staked ETH during the month and earned aggregate staking rewards of approximately 29.0 ETH. As of March 31, 2024, the Company had 251 servers actively generating revenue on its AI contract, with an estimated $4.3 million of revenue earned during the month.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Snail (SNAL) – Nearing The Berth Of Ark

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, April 03, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noisy Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $28.6 million, below our estimate of $31.6 million. Adj. EBITDA for the quarter was $3.6 million, substantially lower than our estimate of $12.4 million. The results were driven by higher than expected deferred revenue and engine fees. Notably, deferred revenue will be recognized as DLC packages included in the sale of ARK: Survival Ascended (ASA) are released.

Deferred revenue recognition. The deferred ASA revenue will be split evenly across the five DLCS that are included in the game and recognized as the DLCs are released. Three of the DLCs included in ASA will be released in 2024 (Q2, Q3, Q4) with the remaining two expected in 2025. Simply put, revenues are being deferred, but not all of the associated costs are being deferred. 


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.