Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

FAT Brands (FAT) – Mixed 1Q Results but Growth Trends Remain Positive

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 02, 2024

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q24 Results. FAT Brands reported 1Q24 revenue of $152 million, up 43.8% y-o-y, driven by the Smokey Bones acquisition. FAT reported adjusted EBITDA of $18.2 million in the quarter, compared to $19.2 million in 1Q23. Net loss for the quarter was $40.2 million, or $2.37/sh, compared to a net loss of $23.6 million, or $2.05/sh last year. Adjusted net loss for the quarter was $32.9 million, or $2.05/sh, compared to a net loss of $23.5 million, or a loss of $1.53/sh, last year. We had projected revenue of $163 million and a net loss of $23.2 million, or a loss of $1.39/sh.

Economy/Weather Impacted 1Q24 Results. While System-wide sales growth was 4.8% y-o-y, same store sales declined 4% y-o-y, as consumers traded down and weather conditions impacted traffic. Weather conditions also impacted new store openings, which came in at 16 for 1Q24, although management expects to increase to over 40 new openings in 2Q and for 125-150 new openings for all of 2024. 


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DLH Holdings (DLHC) – A Look into the Second Quarter

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 02, 2024

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Past the Continuing Resolution. With the Continuing Resolution in the rear view mirror and building momentum in government decision making, DLH is positioned to realize any opportunities for awards throughout 2024, in our view. With the more positive environment, DLH already experienced an increase in its backlog, up $80 million sequentially, and we believe there is still more to come.

2Q Results. Revenue for the second quarter was $101.0 million, an increase from $99.4 million last year and above our estimate of $99 million. Net income totaled $1.8 million, or $0.12 per diluted share, versus $0.8 million, or $0.06 per diluted share, for 2Q23 and in-line with our estimate. EBITDA for 2Q24 was approximately $10.2 million versus $10.5 million in the prior year, or a margin of 10.1% and 10.5%, respectively, slightly below our $11.3 million projection.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Conduent Inc. (CNDT) – A Good Start on its Transitional Journey

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 02, 2024

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 beat. Conduent is in a period of transition, given that it is in the process of monetizing non-core assets. While year-over-year comparisons will be difficult to make, the company reported Q1 revenue and adj. EBITDA that were better than our expectations.

Positive commercial trends. Management noted that business activity in its Commercial segment (50% of total revenue) is improving in 2024 as client companies seek ways to restore projects while reducing costs. This could benefit Conduent, particularly for its outsourcing services.


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Comstock Inc. (LODE) – Concerns About Near-Term Liquidity; Rating Lowered to Market Perform

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 02, 2024

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Rating changed to a Market Perform. We have lowered our investment rating to Market Perform from Outperform pending significant improvement in the company’s liquidity position and a visible path toward net income and cash flow growth from operations. Outside of its mining assets, the company operates much as a start-up within its Fuels and Metals businesses. We think those segments may require significant capital investment and we would like to see a clearer funding path. Additionally, we would like more details such as the components that drive the economics of the business models for each segment (i.e. terms of licensing agreements, royalties, and fees for engineering services).

First quarter 2024 achievements. Comstock achieved significant milestones during the first quarter, including securing all required operating permits and the commencement of production at its photovoltaic recycling facility in Nevada. Comstock Fuels commenced sample production of commercially available hydro-deoxygenated bioleum oil (HBO) and executed agreements for up to a $3 million investment in RenFuel K2B AB. Lastly, Comstock Mining updated its internal Dayton-Spring Valley economic assessment and expects to complete a mine plan by year-end 2024.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – First Quarter Post Call Commentary

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 01, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Improved Margin. In spite of the revenue shortfall caused by unanticipated project delays, management’s focus on improved bidding and cost controls resulted in gross margin increasing to 9.7% in the quarter from 3.7% a year ago. We anticipate ongoing margin improvement.

Environment Ripe with Opportunity. As we have outlined in previous reports, the opportunity set continues to grow, now at $11 billion with solid growth potential in both the Marine and Concrete segments. Government funding, both federal and state, is pushing Marine growth while data center demand is fueling Concrete opportunities.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Maple Gold Mines (MGMLF) – Laying the Groundwork for the 2024 Drilling Program

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 01, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Comprehensive technical review. Since late 2023, Maple Gold has been undertaking a systematic compilation and review of its technical database associated with its 400 square kilometer property package. The company is integrating all geological, geophysical, geochemical, and drilling data to improve target generation and drive successful exploration outcomes.

New structural model to inform the drilling program. Maple Gold’s technical team is nearing completion of a new three-dimensional litho-structural model to support a focused ranking and prioritization of property-wide drill targets to be tested later this year. A high-resolution drone magnetic survey of select areas will be completed in the next few weeks.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Strong Start to 2024; Outlook Remains Favorable

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 01, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

First quarter financial results. Alliance reported first quarter EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $235.0 million and $1.21, respectively, compared to $270.9 million and $1.45 during the prior year period. We had forecast EBITDA and EPU of $209.7 million and $0.97. Coal sales price realizations were above the high end of the partnership’s annual guidance range, while the oil & gas royalty segment experienced record volumes. Additionally, operating expenses were lower than expected and the company benefited from an $11.9 million mark-to-market change in the value of digital assets.

Updating estimates. We have increased our 2024 EBITDA and EPU estimates to $871.3 million and $4.14 from $841.1 million and $3.90, respectively. We think our forward estimates could be conservative based on the potential for higher average coal sales price realizations and stronger than expected performance from the partnership’s oil and gas royalty segment.


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ZyVersa Therapeutics, Inc. (ZVSA) – Inflammation Study Links Alzheimer’s Disease With Chronic Heart Disease

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Study On Inflammasomes Connects Alzheimer’s Disease With Cardiovascular Disease. Research published in a peer-reviewed journal has shown that Alzheimer’s disease produces inflammasome components that can lead a systemic response, including chronic heart disease and stroke. This study links inflammasomes in the brain to inflammation in distant organs, worsening cardiovascular and other chronic diseases.

Alzheimer’s Brains Produces Inflammasome Components That Travel Through the Circulation.  Using models of AD, the study found that parts of the brain had elevated levels of the inflammasome-signaling proteins. When heart ventricles were tested, they also showed significant elevations inflammasome components. Next, serum extracts were administered to cardiovascular cells in culture, resulting in inflammasome activation and significant increases of inflammatory mediators.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF) – Clayton Valley Feasibility Study Sets the Stage for Commercialization

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results of the Clayton Valley feasibility study. Century released the results of a feasibility study (FS) for its Clayton Valley lithium project in Nevada. A phased approach was adopted. Phase I and II mining rates of 7,500 tonnes per day and 15,000 tonnes per day, respectively, are maintained over five years each, while the Phase III mining rate of 22,500 tonnes per day is maintained for 30 years. The production plan reflects a life-of-mine average of 34,000 tonnes per year of battery-grade lithium carbonate or 13,000 tonnes and 27,000 tonnes per year during Phases I and II, respectively, and 41,000 tonnes per year during Phase III.

Key assumptions and net present value. Key assumptions include: 1) initial capital expenditures of $1.5 billion, $651 million for Phase II, and $1.3 billion for Phase III, 2) a lithium carbonate price of $24,000 per tonne, 3) average operating cost of $8,223 per tonne of lithium carbonate produced, or $2,766 per tonne after sales of surplus sodium hydroxide, 4) a lithium recovery rate of 78%, and 5) sustaining capital of $315 million over the life of the project. Based on an 8% discount rate, the project is expected to generate an after-tax net present value of $3.01 billion and 17.1% internal rate of return.


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SKYX Platforms (SKYX) – Initiating Coverage: Introducing Smart Electrical Technology

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, April 29, 2024

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and $5 price target. SKYX Platforms is an innovative developer of smart home technologies that improve safety in residential and commercial buildings. The company holds over 30 patents with approximately 60 pending. In our view, SKYX shares could offer investors significant upside due to the growth of the smart home technology industry, as well as the prospect for one of the most impactful electrical safety developments in the last 40 years. 

Favorable outlook. In 2024, we estimate revenue will grow roughly 60% from the prior year, reaching $94.1 million. In 2025, revenue is expected to reach $140.3 million, an increase of 49% over 2024. The strong revenue growth is to be driven by the company’s owned and operated lighting websites, as well as its key partnerships, detailed later in this report.  


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

V2X (VVX) – Two Contract Expansions

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, April 29, 2024

For more than 70 years, Vectrus has provided critical mission support for our customers’ toughest operational challenges. As a high-performing organization with exceptional talent, deep domain knowledge, a history of long-term customer relationships, and groundbreaking technical expertise, we deliver innovative, mission-matched solutions for our military and government customers worldwide. Whether it’s base operations support, supply chain and logistics, IT mission support, engineering and digital integration, security, or maintenance, repair and overhaul, our customers count on us for on-target solutions that increase efficiency, reduce costs, improve readiness, and strengthen national security. Vectrus is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo., and includes about 8,100 employees spanning 205 locations in 28 countries. In 2021, Vectrus generated sales of $1.8 billion. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.vectrus.com or connect with Vectrus on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Contract Expansions. V2X recently saw two major ID/IQ contracts receive major expansions by the federal contracting authorities. These expansions provide additional growth opportunities, in our view, for V2X which will benefit operational results going forward.

MAC III. V2X was once again named to the U.S. Navy’s Global Contingency Services Multiple Award Contract (MAC) III. The contract is valued at up to $2 billion with an expected completion date of September 2032. Under the previous $900 million MAC II vehicle, V2X received nearly $300 million in awarded task orders. Under MAC III, the Company will continue to provide critical facility support services for a wide range of scenarios.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Travelzoo (TZOO) – An Improved Balance Sheet; Stable Outlook

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, April 25, 2024

Travelzoo® provides its 30 million members with exclusive offers and one-of-a-kind experiences personally reviewed by our deal experts around the globe. We have our finger on the pulse of outstanding travel, entertainment, and lifestyle experiences. We work in partnership with more than 5,000 top travel suppliers—our long-standing relationships give Travelzoo members access to irresistible deals.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Mixed Q1 Results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $22.0 million, a modest 1.8% increase over the year earlier results and a significant sequential deceleration from 13.7% in the previous quarter. Adj. EBITDA in the latest quarter was $6.1 million, beating our estimate of $5.8 million by 5.0%, a result of lower marketing spend. 

A year of transition.  In January the company switched to a paid subscription, all new members pay a $40 annual fee, while members who joined prior to January 2024 do not pay a subscription fee until January 2025. Notably, the company plans to increase marketing spend in the coming quarters as it aims to grow the number of paid members, a development we view favorably.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – First Look into the First Quarter

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, April 25, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results. Revenue for the first quarter was $160.7 million, a 0.9% increase from $159.2 million last year but lower than our estimate of $170 million. Adjusted net loss totaled $4.0 million, or a loss of $0.12, an improvement from a net loss of $10.3 million or $0.32 last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $4.1 million compared to a negative $4.1 million in the prior year. We estimated an adjusted net loss of $7.5 million, or a loss of $0.23, and adjusted EBITDA of $2.6 million.

Continued Margin Improvement. The first quarter brought higher margins compared to last year, as management’s focus on margin improvement continues to deliver. Gross margin improved to 9.7% from 3.7% in the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 2.5% from (2.6)% in the prior year. With management’s strategic plan towards higher quality projects, we expect continued higher margins in the future.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.