Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT) – Tackling Its Challenges


Wednesday, May 07, 2025

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Mixed Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $8.2 million, below our estimate of $10.5 million, and adj. EBITDA loss of $3.0 million, which was in line with our estimate of a loss of $3.1 million. Notably, the variance in revenue was attributed to softness in the company’s sell-side business, which is still recovering from the defamatory article that was released in 2024. Sell-side revenue trends improved from Q4 when taking into account the seasonality strong quarter and influx of $700,000 in Political advertising. 

Segment results. The company reported Q1 Buy-side revenue of $6.1 million, an increase of 6.1% over the prior year period and in line with our estimate of $6.5 million. While Sell-side revenue of $2.0 million was lower than our $4.0 million estimate, the segment should improve volume in the second half of the year, which should provide a meaningful step up in revenue. 


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FreightCar America (RAIL) – First Quarter Results Exceeded Our Estimates


Wednesday, May 07, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

First quarter financial results. FreightCar America reported net income of $1.604 million or $0.05 per share compared to our estimate of $1.223 million or $0.03 per share. The variances to our estimates were largely revenue and margin driven. As expected, revenue and rail car deliveries declined to $96.3 million and 710, respectively, compared to $161.1 million and 1,223 during the first quarter of 2024. Our estimates were $82.5 million and 700. During the quarter, a portion of RAIL’s railcar production capacity was utilized for custom fabrications by its Aftermarket segment. Management expected lower deliveries to be reflected in first quarter revenues. Gross profit and margin improved to $14.4 million and 14.9%, respectively, compared to $11.4 million and 7.1% during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $7.3 million compared to $6.1 million during the first quarter of 2024. RAIL generated free cash flow of $12.5 million and ended the quarter with $54.1 million in cash.

No Change to 2025 corporate guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 4,500 to 4,900, revenue is expected to be in the range of $530 million to $595 million, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $43 to $49 million. Compared to 2024, railcar deliveries, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA are expected to increase 7.7%, 0.6%, and 7.0%, respectively, at the midpoints of guidance.


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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – An Exceptional Quarter


Wednesday, May 07, 2025

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Exceptional Quarter. Driven by strong project performance and high utilization, as all active dredges were operational, Great Lakes generated exceptional operating results in the quarter, significantly exceeding our, and consensus, estimates. While, planned drydockings will impact future quarters, the $1+ billion backlog and strong operating environment bode well for the Company.

1Q25 Results. Revenue of $242.9 million in 1Q25 was up 22.3% from $198.7 million in 1Q24, and above our $215.5 million estimate. Gross margin improved to 28.6% from 22.9% last year and our 21.1% estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was $60.1 million versus $42.9 million in 1Q24 and our $39.5 million estimate. Net income for 1Q25 totaled $33.4 million, or $0.49/sh, up from $21.0 million and $0.31/sh last year. We had an estimated net income of $17 million or $0.25/sh.


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Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) – First Look at 1Q25


Wednesday, May 07, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Performance Continues to Struggle. First quarter revenue declined 12.7% to $169.8 million from $194.6 million during the same prior year period. The revenue outperformed our estimate of $160.0 million. Operating income and adjusted operating income of $1.4 million and $2.1 million, respectively, decreased by $3.1 million and $4.2 million. Net loss totaled $3.1 million, or $0.09/share, and adjusted net loss totaled $2.6 million, or $0.08/share. Adjusted EBITDA declined to $5.8 million from $9.7 million.

Continued Headwinds. 2025 continues the trends of last year, with challenging global construction and agricultural end markets and lower customer demand across all segments. Furthermore, the recent policy changes and subsequent economic environment have temporarily driven further market confusion. ACT Research projects 2025 North American Class 8 truck production levels to be around 255,000 units compared to 333,372 in 2024, while the Construction and Agriculture markets are projected to be down 5-15% in 2025.


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Aurania Resources (AUIAF) – Aurania Closes Final Tranche of Private Placement Financing


Tuesday, May 06, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Private placement financing. Aurania Resources closed the second and final tranche of its non-brokered private placement financing. A total of 2,569,022 units of the company were sold under the second tranche at a price of C$0.30 per unit. Including the first tranche which closed on April 17, Aurania issued 5,751,921 units for gross proceeds of C$1,725,577. Net proceeds will be used to fund general working capital needs and may be used to pay mineral concession fees in Ecuador.

Terms of the offering. Each unit is composed of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.55 for a period of 24 months following the closing of the date of issuance. 


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V2X, Inc. (VVX) – Solid 1Q25, Expanding Opportunities


Tuesday, May 06, 2025

V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strategy Working. V2X’s unique full-lifecycle, mission-driven strategy is working, resulting in not only an expanded opportunity set but significantly larger individual opportunities than in the past. The Company’s focus on enhancing mission effectiveness, extending asset utilization, reducing costs, and improving security and mission outcomes dovetails nicely with the focus of the DoD and the current Administration.

1Q25 Results. Revenue came in at $1.015 billion compared to $1.01 billion in 1Q24 and our $1.04 billion estimate, with 10% y-o-y growth in Indopacom the driver. Adjusted EBITDA was $67 million, down slightly from $69 million last year and in-line with our estimate. Adjusted EPS was $0.98, up from $0.90 last year and our $0.89 estimate.


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FreightCar America (RAIL) – RAIL Exceeds Our First Quarter Expectations; Investor Call at 11:00 am ET


Tuesday, May 06, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

First quarter financial results. FreightCar America earned adjusted net income of $1.604 million or $0.05 per share compared to our estimate of $1.223 million or $0.03 per share. The variance to our estimates were largely revenue and margin driven. As expected, revenue and rail car deliveries declined to $96.3 million and 710, respectively, compared to $161.1 million and 1,223 during the first quarter of 2023. Our estimates were $82.5 million and 700. During the quarter, a portion of RAIL’s railcar production capacity was utilized to build spare parts for its Aftermarket segment. Management expected lower deliveries to be reflected in first quarter revenues. Gross profit and margin improved to $14.4 million and 14.9%, respectively, compared to $11.4 million and 7.1% during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA increased to $7.3 million compared to $6.1 million during the first quarter of 2023. RAIL generated free cash flow of $12.5 million and ended the quarter with $54.1 million in cash.

Favorable outlook. First quarter sales activity was strong with 1,250 railcars ordered. With a backlog of 3,337 units valued at $318 million, we expect deliveries to accelerate throughout the year.   


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Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) – Near Term Tariff Turbulence Likely


Monday, May 05, 2025

500 5th Avenue 20th Floor New York, NY 10110 United States Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 599 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Jonathan CEO & Director 825.62k N/A 1958 Ms. Marie Fogel Senior VP and Chief Merchandising & Manufacturing Officer 633.19k N/A 1961 Mr. John Chief Financial Officer

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Favorable Fourth Quarter Results. Fourth quarter total company revenues increased an attractive 6.2% to $79.95 million, well above our $71.5 million estimate, primarily due to strong growth in its Wholesale business. Due to price integrity, gross margins substantially improved 470 basis points to 50.1%. As a result, adj. EBITDA in the latest quarter was $3.58 million, better than our $1.5 million estimate. 

Adjusting estimates lower. Management guided fiscal first quarter revenues to be down 5%, with gross margins likely down 500 basis points. Notably, the first quarter guidance did not reflect the current U.S. trade policy. While the full extent of the company’s tariff mitigation plans are fluid, we believe that there will be some adverse revenue and cost of goods impact. 


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ACCO Brands (ACCO) – Post Call Commentary


Monday, May 05, 2025

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Control What Can Be Controlled. Given the uncertain economic situation, management is focused on what they can control. The prime examples being the multi-year cost out program and the effort to move manufacturing for U.S. based consumption to the lowest cost geographical areas possible. Management also continues to push forward its new product program to capture additional sales.

Cost Reduction Program. ACCO’s $100 million cost reduction program remains on track, with SG&A costs down y-o-y primarily due to the program. Management estimates some $7 million of savings during 1Q25, and the Company remains on track to deliver $40 million of savings in 2025. This will help alleviate some of the pressure from tariff uncertainty.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

GeoVax Labs (GOVX) – 1Q25 Reported With Pipeline Strategy Updates


Friday, May 02, 2025

GeoVax Labs, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing novel therapies and vaccines for solid tumor cancers and many of the world’s most threatening infectious diseases. The company’s lead program in oncology is a novel oncolytic solid tumor gene-directed therapy, Gedeptin®, presently in a multicenter Phase 1/2 clinical trial for advanced head and neck cancers. GeoVax’s lead infectious disease candidate is GEO-CM04S1, a next-generation COVID-19 vaccine targeting high-risk immunocompromised patient populations. Currently in three Phase 2 clinical trials, GEO-CM04S1 is being evaluated as a primary vaccine for immunocompromised patients such as those suffering from hematologic cancers and other patient populations for whom the current authorized COVID-19 vaccines are insufficient, and as a booster vaccine in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). In addition, GEO-CM04S1 is in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating the vaccine as a more robust, durable COVID-19 booster among healthy patients who previously received the mRNA vaccines. GeoVax has a leadership team who have driven significant value creation across multiple life science companies over the past several decades.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

First Quarter Included Contract Revenues. GeoVax reported a 1Q25 loss of $5.4 million or $(0.45) per share, a smaller loss than we had expected. The quarter included $1.6 million in Contract Revenue from the BARDA contract in preparation for the Phase 2 trial. Since the contract was cancelled on April 11, 2025, the 2Q25 results will include some final contract work. Cash on March 31, 2025, was $7.4 million.

CM04S1 Continues Development With Focus On Immunocompromised Patients. The current focus of CM04S1 development is in immunocompromised patients, a population estimated at 40 million patients in the US alone. Data from the Phase 1 and Phase 2 clinical trials for CM04S1 was presented at the 25th World Vaccine Congress. The two Phase 2 trials in chronic lymphocytic leukemia and stem cell transplants continue to enroll patients, while the Phase 2 Healthy Adult Booster trial is expected to report data during 2Q25.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Cumulus Media (CMLS) – Skating On Thin Ice


Friday, May 02, 2025

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 revenue weaker than expected. Total company revenues declined 6.4% to $187.3 million, weaker than our 4.8% decline and $190.4 million estimates, respectively. Due to previous cost reductions, the company achieved our adj. EBITDA estimate, $3.5 million versus our estimate of $3.4 million. 

Digital Marketing Services (DMS) revenue surges. DMS revenues, which account for roughly 30% of the digital segment, increased a strong 30%. Management indicated that DMS Q2 revenue pacings have accelerated to 35% growth. Notably, the digital segment accounted for 20% of total company revenues. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Xcel Brands (XELB) – Keeping Its Focus On The Bullseye


Friday, May 02, 2025

Xcel Brands, Inc. 1333 Broadway 10th Floor New York, NY 10018 United States https:/Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 84 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Robert W. D’Loren Chairman, Pres & CEO 1.27M N/A 1958 Mr. James F. Haran CFO, Principal Financial & Accou

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Collaboration with a UTG. United Trademark Group (UTG) made a $9 million strategic investment in Xcel Brands and announced a strategic partnership. The investment bolstered the company’s balance sheet and provided more favorable debt covenant terms. In addition, UTG has performance warrants, exercisable over 7 years, that could bring in an additional $13 million if exercised. 

Increased financial flexibility. United Trademark Group (UTG) took a $9 million strategic investment in the form of a Paid In Kind (PIK) loan. UTG was also issued performance based warrants that could add $13 million, if exercised. We believe that the funds will be used to support the growth of recently announced brands and provide financial flexibility to acquire or develop additional brands. 


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ACCO Brands (ACCO) – Solid 1Q25; But Uncertainties Limit Visibility Beyond 2Q25


Friday, May 02, 2025

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid 1Q25. In the historically smallest quarter, ACCO reported revenue in-line with guidance while exceeding adjusted EPS guidance during the quarter. However, increased market uncertainties driven by global trade dynamics is resulting in limited visibility beyond 2Q25. Management’s strategic management of its supplier base and ability to accelerate supply chain moves should lessen the impact of tariffs.

1Q25 Results. Revenue of $317.4 million was within management’s $315-$325 million guidance. We were at $315 million. Revenue was down 11.6% y-o-y, with comp sales off 8.3%. Adverse forex reduced revenue by 3.3%. The revenue decline was driven by softer global demand for certain office products and gaming accessories, partially offset by growth in computer accessories. Gross margin improved 60bp y-o-y to 31.4%.


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