Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – ARLP Updates 2024 Guidance; Revising Estimates


Wednesday, July 31, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Second quarter financial results. Alliance reported second quarter EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $177.7 million and $0.77, respectively, compared to $249.2 million and $1.30 during the prior year period. We had forecast EBITDA and EPU of $196.9 million and $0.86. Revenue declined 7.6% to $593.4 million due to lower coal sales volumes, which declined 11.8% due to transportation delays that were partially offset by higher coal sales price realizations which increased 3.8% to $65.30 per ton. Alliance experienced a $3.7 million, or $0.03 per unit, decrease in the fair value of the partnership’s digital assets. Roughly 500,000 tons of coal sales were deferred and are expected to be made up during the remainder of the year.

Updated 2024 corporate guidance. Management updated its 2024 guidance which calls for lower coal sales volumes and higher oil and gas royalty volumes. The lower coal sales guidance is based on uncertainty associated with coal export sales. While the guidance for coal sales volume was lowered, sales price realization expectations were increased at the midpoint of guidance.


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Xcel Brands (XELB) – A Set Up For 2025


Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Xcel Brands, Inc. 1333 Broadway 10th Floor New York, NY 10018 United States https:/Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 84 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Robert W. D’Loren Chairman, Pres & CEO 1.27M N/A 1958 Mr. James F. Haran CFO, Principal Financial & Accou

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

In line Q2 preliminary results. The company announced limited, preliminary operating results from Q2. Revenue in the quarter is expected to be $3.0 million, modestly below our estimate of $3.6 million, and adj. EBITDA of negative $40,000 was in line with our estimate of negative $64,000. 

LOGO sale finalized. The sale of the LOGO brand was finalized on June 30, and the company is expected to recognized a one time gain of $3.8 million. We estimate that Lori Goldstein accounted for roughly $5 million in annual revenues and $2 million in adj. EBITDA. However, after earn-outs, we estimate that the company was losing money on the brand.


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Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN) – Eledon Announces Patient Enrollment Milestone and Confirms Timeframe For Completion


Tuesday, July 30, 2024

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

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Eledon Announced It Has Reached Two-Thirds Patient Enrollment Milestone. Eledon has enrolled its 80th patient in the Phase 2 BESTOW trial testing tegoprubart against tacrolimus for prevention of kidney transplant rejection. The trial is expected to reach its full enrollment of 120 patients by YE2024 as expected.

The BESTOW Trial Is Designed To Compare Tegoprubart To Tacrolimus. The Phase 2 BESTOW trial is an open-label active-comparator trial comparing tegoprubart directly against tacrolimus, the standard of care in kidney transplantation. The primary endpoint is superior mean eGFR (a measure of kidney graft function) at 12 months post-transplant, with additional endpoints to provide clinically meaningful measures for comparison with tacrolimus.


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V2X (VVX) – Some New Awards; Refined Projections


Monday, July 29, 2024

For more than 70 years, Vectrus has provided critical mission support for our customers’ toughest operational challenges. As a high-performing organization with exceptional talent, deep domain knowledge, a history of long-term customer relationships, and groundbreaking technical expertise, we deliver innovative, mission-matched solutions for our military and government customers worldwide. Whether it’s base operations support, supply chain and logistics, IT mission support, engineering and digital integration, security, or maintenance, repair and overhaul, our customers count on us for on-target solutions that increase efficiency, reduce costs, improve readiness, and strengthen national security. Vectrus is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo., and includes about 8,100 employees spanning 205 locations in 28 countries. In 2021, Vectrus generated sales of $1.8 billion. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.vectrus.com or connect with Vectrus on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Awards. Returning to a continuing theme, V2X recently has been awarded some significant new and re-compete business. We believe the awards demonstrate the Company’s ability to compete, and win, in the converged environment.

GMR Award. Notably, on July 22nd V2X secured a $48.5 million ID/IQ contract with the U.S. Army for V2X’s Gateway Mission Router. This is a significant award, in our view, as it highlights V2X’s ability to deliver cutting edge solutions to its partners and expands the number of platforms on which GMR can reside. In addition, margins on the GMR product should be additive to the Company’s overall margin profile.


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Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) – A Mid-Summer Month’s Progress: Tonmya Gets Fast Track Review and Antiviral Gets $34 Million Grant


Monday, July 29, 2024

Tonix is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, licensing, acquiring and developing therapeutics and diagnostics to treat and prevent human disease and alleviate suffering. Tonix’s portfolio is composed of immunology, rare disease, infectious disease, and central nervous system (CNS) product candidates. Tonix’s immunology portfolio includes biologics to address organ transplant rejection, autoimmunity and cancer, including TNX-15001 which is a humanized monoclonal antibody targeting CD40-ligand being developed for the prevention of allograft and xenograft rejection and for the treatment of autoimmune diseases. A Phase 1 study of TNX-1500 is expected to be initiated in the second half of 2022. Tonix’s rare disease portfolio includes TNX-29002 for the treatment of Prader-Willi syndrome. TNX-2900 has been granted Orphan-Drug Designation by the FDA. Tonix’s infectious disease pipeline includes a vaccine in development to prevent smallpox and monkeypox called TNX-8013, next-generation vaccines to prevent COVID-19, and an antiviral to treat COVID-19. Tonix’s lead vaccine candidates for COVID-19 are TNX-1840 and TNX-18504, which are live virus vaccines based on Tonix’s recombinant pox vaccine (RPV) platform. TNX-35005 (sangivamycin, i.v. solution) is a small molecule antiviral drug to treat acute COVID-19 and is in the pre-IND stage of development. TNX-102 SL6, (cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablets), is a small molecule drug being developed to treat Long COVID, a chronic post-acute COVID-19 condition. Tonix expects to initiate a Phase 2 study in Long COVID in the second quarter of 2022. The Company’s CNS portfolio includes both small molecules and biologics to treat pain, neurologic, psychiatric and addiction conditions. Tonix’s lead CNS candidate, TNX-102 SL, is in mid-Phase 3 development for the management of fibromyalgia with a new Phase 3 study launched in the second quarter of 2022. Finally, TNX-13007 is a biologic designed to treat cocaine intoxication that is expected to start a Phase 2 trial in the second quarter of 2022. TNX-1300 has been granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation by the FDA.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Tonix Announced Two Significant Developments In Late July. Tonmya (TNX-102 SL) has received Fast Track Review designation from the FDA. This designation is awarded to products that can make significant impact on serious medical conditions. The designation provides important benefits for Tonmya including eligibility for Accelerated Approval and Priority Review Fast Track Review. The NDA application for approval is expected to be filed in 2H24.

Fast Track Review Is A Significant Distinction. The FDA awards Fast Track Review to drugs that treat serious conditions with unmet needs. It is given when the FDA believes the drug is either providing a therapy where none exists and/or has meaningful advantages over existing therapies. We have long believed the Tonmya Phase 3 data meets both requirements.


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EuroDry (EDRY) – Updating Estimates; Rating Remains an Outperform


Monday, July 29, 2024

EuroDry Ltd. was formed on January 8, 2018 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the drybulk fleet of Euroseas Ltd. into a separate listed public company. EuroDry was spun-off from Euroseas Ltd. on May 30, 2018; it trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker EDRY. EuroDry operates in the dry cargo, drybulk shipping market. EuroDry’s operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company and Eurobulk (Far East) Ltd. Inc., which are responsible for the day- to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. EuroDry employs its vessels on spot and period charters and under pool agreements.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Eurodry operates a competitive fleet. EuroDry Ltd. owns and operates dry bulk carriers that transport major bulks, including iron ore, coal, grains, and minor bulks such as bauxite, phosphate, and fertilizer. Eurodry’s fleet is comprised of 13 dry bulk carriers, including five Panamax, five Ultramax, two Kamsarmax, and one Supramax dry bulk carriers all of which are in operation. The total cargo carrying capacity of the company’s 13 dry bulk carriers is 918,502 deadweight tonnes (dwt). The average age of the fleet is 13.5 years. The orderbook in the sector is nearing a 20-year low and demand growth for drybulk vessels appears strong through at least the remainder of 2024. Some uncertainty exists beyond 2024, particularly with respect to bulk commodity demand in China.

Updating estimates. We have lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $23.8 million and $1.54, respectively, from $28.1 million and $2.05. The revisions reflect fewer available days in the second and third quarters due to drydocking, along with modestly lower time charter equivalent rates.


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Resources Connection (RGP) – Highlights from the Company’s 10-K Filing


Friday, July 26, 2024

Resources Connection, Inc. provides agile consulting services in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers finance and accounting services, including process transformation and optimization, financial reporting and analysis, technical and operational accounting, merger and acquisition due diligence and integration, audit readiness, preparation and response, implementation of new accounting standards, and remediation support. It also provides information management services, such as program and project management, business and technology integration, data strategy, and business performance management. In addition, the company offers corporate advisory, strategic communications, and restructuring services; and corporate governance, risk, and compliance management services, such as contract and regulatory compliance, enterprise risk management, internal controls management, and operation and information technology (IT) audits. Further, it provides supply chain management services comprising strategy development, procurement and supplier management, logistics and materials management, supply chain planning and forecasting, and unique device identification compliance; and human capital services, including change management, organization development and effectiveness, compensation and incentive plan strategies, and optimization of human resources technology and operations. Additionally, the company offers legal and regulatory supporting services for commercial transactions, global compliance initiatives, law department operations, and law department business strategies and analytics. It also provides policyIQ, a proprietary cloud-based governance, risk, and compliance software application. The company was formerly known as RC Transaction Corp. and changed its name to Resources Connection, Inc. in August 2000. Resources Connection, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

10-K Filed. We had the opportunity to review the Company’s 10-K filed earlier in the week. Some key takeaways from the 10-K include the Company’s continuation of its pristine balance sheet, solid cash flow generation, and the return of capital to shareholders.

Pristine Balance Sheet. The Company continues to have plenty of liquidity to work with, as RGP’s total liquidity at year end was $283 million, with no outstanding debt. We believe the Company can utilize the liquidity in the balance sheet towards acquisitions should the opportunity present itself to RGP. Outside of acquisitions, management can utilize its liquidity towards organic growth, including its technology transformation initiative, in our view.


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Travelzoo (TZOO) – Entering A New Growth Phase


Friday, July 26, 2024

Travelzoo® provides its 30 million members with exclusive offers and one-of-a-kind experiences personally reviewed by our deal experts around the globe. We have our finger on the pulse of outstanding travel, entertainment, and lifestyle experiences. We work in partnership with more than 5,000 top travel suppliers—our long-standing relationships give Travelzoo members access to irresistible deals.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

In line quarter. Second quarter results were largely in line with our estimates. Q2 revenue of $21.1 million was a touch below our estimate of $22.4 million, and roughly flat with the prior year period. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $4.9 million, above our estimate of $4.4 million by roughly 11.0%, as a result of lower marketing expenses and higher gross margin. Gross margins were 88.1%, better than our 86.2% estimate.

A focus on subscribers. The Company introduced an annual $40 paid subscription for its travel deals at the beginning of the calendar year. All of its 30 million legacy members will be introduced to the paid model beginning in 2025. Management plans to add new benefits for the paid membership, although it did not yet identify what those benefits might be.  


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Ocugen (OCGN) – Ocugen Completes Phase 1 Dosing For OCU410 In Dry AMD


Friday, July 26, 2024

Ocugen, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing novel gene therapies, biologicals, and vaccines. The lead product in its gene therapy program, OCU400, is in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for retinitis pigmentosa.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Escalating Dose Stage Has Completed Dosing. Ocugen reported completion of the escalating dose stage of its Phase 1/2 ArMaDa trial testing OCU410 in Geographic Atrophy (GA), a late-stage complication of dry age-related macular degeneration (dry AMD). OCU410 uses Ocugen’s “master regulatory gene” approach, with a single injection to deliver the nuclear receptor gene RAR-related orphan receptor A (RORA). This gene regulates pathways that lead to dry age-related macular degeneration.

Next Stage In Phase 1/2 Trial Expected In 3Q24. The Phase 1/2 ArMaDa trial is testing OCU410 in geographic atrophy (GA), a lesion secondary to dry AMD at 14 retina surgical centers in the US. The first stage of the trial administered three escalating doses of OCU410. The second stage will randomize patients into three arms at a ratio of 1:1:1 to compare the medium and high dosage levels to a control group. Endpoints will be efficacy and safety.


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Maple Gold Mines (MGMLF) – Hitting its Stride and Gaining Momentum


Thursday, July 25, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Augmenting the leadership team. Effective immediately, Maple Gold Mines Ltd. appointed Mr. Darwin Green, P. Geo., to its Board of Directors. Mr. Ian Cunningham-Dunlop, P. Eng., has been appointed Vice President, Technical Services effective on or before August 1, 2024. Both have impressive credentials which are summarized in the body of this note. As Mr. Kiran Patankar, CEO, has taken quick actions to reposition the company for successful outcomes, Mr. Green and Mr. Cunningham-Dunlop will strengthen the company’s ability to execute. Maple’s Chief Geologist and Engineer will report to Mr. Cunningham-Dunlop.

Upcoming events. We expect the company to hold a meeting of its Board of Directors ahead of releasing its second quarter financial results to the market in early August. On September 9, the company will host its annual meeting of shareholders at which time Maple Gold shareholders will vote on the recent joint venture restructuring transaction with Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE: AEM). Maple is also expected to provide a more detailed exploration update and plan later in the year prior to commencement of the company’s drilling program.


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Seanergy Maritime (SHIP) – Two Time Charters with Costamare Bulkers Inc.; Updating Estimates


Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. is the only pure-play Capesize ship-owner publicly listed in the US. Seanergy provides marine dry bulk transportation services through a modern fleet of Capesize vessels. The Company’s operating fleet consists of 17 Capesize vessels with an average age of approximately 12 years and aggregate cargo carrying capacity of approximately 3,011,083 dwt. The Company is incorporated in the Marshall Islands and has executive offices in Glyfada, Greece. The Company’s common shares trade on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol “SHIP” and its Class B warrants under “SHIPZ”.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

M/V Iconship. In mid-June, Seanergy announced the delivery of the M/V Iconship and the simultaneous commencement of its employment. The M/V Iconship is on a time-charter with Costamare Bulkers, Inc. for ~22 months. The daily hire is based at a premium over the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI). The company has the option to convert the daily hire from index-linked to fixed for a period of two to twelve months based on prevailing Capesize forward freight agreements (FFA).

M/V Lordship. The M/V Lordship, a scrubber-fitted Capesize dry bulk vessel built in 2010, has also been fixed on a time-charter with Costamare. The time-charter is expected to commence around the end of July, following the vessel’s scheduled drydocking, for a period of ~22 months.


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Resources Connection (RGP) – Full 2024 Review and Updated Projections


Monday, July 22, 2024

Resources Connection, Inc. provides agile consulting services in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers finance and accounting services, including process transformation and optimization, financial reporting and analysis, technical and operational accounting, merger and acquisition due diligence and integration, audit readiness, preparation and response, implementation of new accounting standards, and remediation support. It also provides information management services, such as program and project management, business and technology integration, data strategy, and business performance management. In addition, the company offers corporate advisory, strategic communications, and restructuring services; and corporate governance, risk, and compliance management services, such as contract and regulatory compliance, enterprise risk management, internal controls management, and operation and information technology (IT) audits. Further, it provides supply chain management services comprising strategy development, procurement and supplier management, logistics and materials management, supply chain planning and forecasting, and unique device identification compliance; and human capital services, including change management, organization development and effectiveness, compensation and incentive plan strategies, and optimization of human resources technology and operations. Additionally, the company offers legal and regulatory supporting services for commercial transactions, global compliance initiatives, law department operations, and law department business strategies and analytics. It also provides policyIQ, a proprietary cloud-based governance, risk, and compliance software application. The company was formerly known as RC Transaction Corp. and changed its name to Resources Connection, Inc. in August 2000. Resources Connection, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Full Year Results. For the twelve months ended May 25, 2024, RGP posted revenue of $632.8 million, a decline of 18.4% y-o-y. Same day constant currency revenue fell 18.8% y-o-y. Gross margin was 38.9% versus 40.4% in FY23. GAAP net income was $21 million, or $0.62/sh., compared to $54.4 million, or $1.59 last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.93 versus $2.00. Adjusted EBITDA in FY24 totaled $51.5 million, down from $100.2 million a year ago.

Setting Foundation. Management continues to control what they can while setting the foundation for an expected industry upturn. While the timing of the upturn is difficult to predict, we believe clients will become more willing to start spending on new projects as economic certainty becomes clearer. We believe the first interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve will be a signal of improved clarity and will provide clients comfort to start new projects.


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Resources Connection (RGP) – A 4Q24 Beat; Stabilization, Waiting for Upturn


Friday, July 19, 2024

Resources Connection, Inc. provides agile consulting services in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers finance and accounting services, including process transformation and optimization, financial reporting and analysis, technical and operational accounting, merger and acquisition due diligence and integration, audit readiness, preparation and response, implementation of new accounting standards, and remediation support. It also provides information management services, such as program and project management, business and technology integration, data strategy, and business performance management. In addition, the company offers corporate advisory, strategic communications, and restructuring services; and corporate governance, risk, and compliance management services, such as contract and regulatory compliance, enterprise risk management, internal controls management, and operation and information technology (IT) audits. Further, it provides supply chain management services comprising strategy development, procurement and supplier management, logistics and materials management, supply chain planning and forecasting, and unique device identification compliance; and human capital services, including change management, organization development and effectiveness, compensation and incentive plan strategies, and optimization of human resources technology and operations. Additionally, the company offers legal and regulatory supporting services for commercial transactions, global compliance initiatives, law department operations, and law department business strategies and analytics. It also provides policyIQ, a proprietary cloud-based governance, risk, and compliance software application. The company was formerly known as RC Transaction Corp. and changed its name to Resources Connection, Inc. in August 2000. Resources Connection, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q24 Results. Revenue of $148.2 million was above our forecast of $140 million, consensus $141 million, and management’s $137-$142 million guide. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $13.1 million, or an 8.8% margin, versus our estimate of $5.5 million. GAAP net income was $10.5 million, or $0.31/sh, and adjusted EPS was $0.28. We had forecast a GAAP loss of $0.02/sh and adjusted EPS of $0.07/sh. Consensus was $0.00 and $0.07, respectively.

Drivers. The top line was driven by a stabilization in the overall business, although clients remain cautious on spending on new projects. Gross margin of 40.2% was above the 37.5%-38% guide. Run rate SGA came in at $46.5 million, well below the $50-$52 million guide, and an 11% y-o-y improvement.


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